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Friday, November 02, 2018

Not a single seat

A bold prediction by Fleporblog flies directly in the face of the Blue Wave-predicting pollsters:
Florida is looking better and better by the day for Republicans! Nearly 3.75 million people have voted early. The margin for the Republicans continues to increase each day (currently +63,537). Democrats had a lead of 96,450 at the end of Early Voting in 2016. The difference at this point is +159,987 for Republicans. We have an excellent chance of flipping FL-D7 and a good chance of flipping FL-D13.

We will not lose a single Republican House Seat.

Nevada has been a night and day difference when comparing 2018 to 2016. The RNC went all in with door-to-door knocking starting 6 months ago. It is really paying off BIGLY! We will hold the Senate Seat (Heller) and the Governor’s Seat. We have a fantastic chance of flipping NV-D3 and a good chance of flipping NV-D4.

We will not lose a single Republican House Seat.
If this guy gets it right with a call that virtually no one else is making, he'll definitely be one site to watch in the 2020 Presidential election.

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128 Comments:

Blogger Purge187 November 02, 2018 9:36 AM  

I suspect the American people are getting sick to death of the Anglophobic regressive Left and are responding in kind. There's hope.

Blogger Other Josh November 02, 2018 9:41 AM  

As I commented yesterday:

the Republicans will have a net gain of 2 seats in the house, and a net gain of 1 seat in the senate.

I am sincerely hoping the last two years of Trump's term will be Trump unleashed. Up until now, his cabinet and advisers have kept him clamped down, speaking of political fallout and Democrat takeover if he follows his gut. After the midterms, when he sees all their talk and warnings amounted to nothing - I hope he kicks them to the curb and sincerely pursues the "dangerous" items on his agenda. If he does this, he will ensure the 2020 Trumpslide.

Blogger veryfunnyminion November 02, 2018 9:47 AM  

Still trying to prepare cover for massive vote fraud, they are.

Here's hoping that doesn't quite work out as planned.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan November 02, 2018 9:54 AM  

I always thought the left did optics well, but after viewing the "grabembytheballot" embarrassment versus the modestly successful false flags they perped last week I would say yes the left and the LWO is trending down.

Blogger tuberman November 02, 2018 9:55 AM  

Yep, Fleporblog is one of the few CTH commentators that is worth keeping an eye on, and he is usually correct.

Perhaps some of the Broward County voter fraud people will see justice this time?

Blogger Darwinite November 02, 2018 9:57 AM  

The reason this was inevitable is thanks to a key decision made by Trump during the 2016 campaign.
Instead of funneling all the donations into the campaign, he split them with the RNC, and instead of retaining the campaign data, it was all held by the RNC. Since Clinton, and Obama before her gutted their parties, starving them of funds and data, they set up the next two terms for guaranteed failure.

Blogger Matt Sellitto November 02, 2018 9:59 AM  

I'm assuming he means we won't lose a single house seat in Florida?
Maybe I'm wrong.

I still think Republicans will hold on to the majority but may lose a dozen seats or so. Hope they do even better though.

Blogger DBSFF November 02, 2018 10:03 AM  

Yeah, he's talking about Florida.

Blogger Random #57 November 02, 2018 10:04 AM  

I don't like predictions like this, because most every election you get at least one quasi-Black Swan result that "no one" expected.

But after 2 years of often violent "Resistance", the caravans to focus people's minds, ridiculous last minute October and now November surprises, even if only in how the media and Democrats portray them, I won't be surprised if the prediction holds true, we're certainly more likely to see one or more "safe" Democratic seats lost.

Blogger emx1 November 02, 2018 10:10 AM  

@LarrySchweikart on Twitter is one of the best for aggregating this type of analysis.

Blogger Rough Carrigan November 02, 2018 10:11 AM  

If the republicans only had a net gain of 1 seat in the senate I'd be very disappointed. With all the low hanging fruit seats like ND, MT, FL and others I'd be surprised if they don't gain at least 4 seats.

Blogger Dave W. November 02, 2018 10:14 AM  

I mailed my ballot in a few weeks ago. I unfortunately live in a fairly safe Dem district (Broward County), but hopefully the statewide races will be good for some lefty schadenfreude.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash November 02, 2018 10:15 AM  

@Random #57,
In this election, the GOP holding every seat IS the black swan event.

Blogger David Ray Milton November 02, 2018 10:20 AM  

Im sure there will be another "Scandal" to explain the Blue Wave hitting the Red Wall on par with Russia Russia Russia.

Regardless, I will really enjoy those three days after the election before the next concocted scandal takes root. The weeping, the gnashing of teeth, and the cold silence of disbelief. Man, nothing brings me more happiness than to watch people's illusions crashing on the rocks.

Blogger DBSFF November 02, 2018 10:21 AM  

Like Vox was saying, you've got Trump polling well (Rasmussen has him at 51%) and a good economy. Hard to square that with predictions of a Republican wipe out. Even harder when you consider that this was the exact same narrative pushed in 2016 and it was utterly wrong. Media and left only know how to push disinformation; internet has really undercut their ability to push just one narrative on the masses.

Blogger John Doe03526 November 02, 2018 10:24 AM  

The Blue Wave was always wishful thinking. I never saw the rationale for it. Is the economy in recession? Are we embroiled in an unpopular war?

Blogger Dave November 02, 2018 10:24 AM  

Yeah, that's FL and NV he's saying won't lose a Republican seat. Still, an impressive showing by the Repubs in those states if they hold on and flip some seats.

Blogger DBSFF November 02, 2018 10:24 AM  

Case in point, NYT: "Trump’s Nationalism Is Breaking Point for Some Suburban Voters, Risking G.O.P. Coalition"

That's pure wishcasting, and would have previously gone unchallenged. Now, as has been pointed out here, it's just ignored. Looks especially silly in light of what happened in 2016.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan November 02, 2018 10:27 AM  

Thanks for posting that piece. I have a Bold Ass Prediction, BAP, after the Blue Flush the Baby Boomers will be hit with a broadside from the left calling for euthanasia of the tired old white people.

I credit Reagan's success electorally to the Greatest Gen coming into retirement and not wanting their idiot Boomer children playing Castro with the golden years, hence my hypothesis that the Boomtards quietly go to the polls ignore their fat crazy spinster pussy hatted daughter and vote R. I get this from the AZ data mentioned in the article.

So the new political alignment post 2018 will have Vox and the Left versus the Boomers.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 02, 2018 10:28 AM  

If you ignore the polling and just look at the things that influence elections, it's hard to see a reason Republicans would lose a lot of seats. The economy is doing well, stock market up (for all the people who use that as a gauge), GDP growing at a level Obama said was impossible, jobs up (250,000 new ones just announced). If "it's the economy, stupid," there's no reason for Americans to want to slow down the Trump train. If you look at other issues Americans care about -- judicial appointments, immigration, border, taxes, trade -- you have to conclude that Trump has generally been doing what his voters voted for. Maybe not as fast as we'd like in some cases, but the legislature bears responsibility for that, so I don't think many people are going to give up on the plan after two years. And anyone who's going to jump ship because "violent rhetoric" never got on board in the first place.

I get that the GOP is losing 40+ incumbents, but those are still seat that went R last time. When I look at lists of the 23+ seats Democrats think they will swing, they're pretty sketchy.

If there were going to be a big shift leftward, I'd think someone would have given a reason for it by now. But I just see wishful thinking about high Democrat enthusiasm which isn't reflected in any actual numbers, or leftists claiming that international socialism is on the rise (really). No reasons.

Blogger Dave November 02, 2018 10:31 AM  

He's very bullish on the Senate: 56-60 range.

https://fleporeblog.wordpress.com/2018/10/28/prepare-yourself-for-the-total-destruction-of-the-democrat-party-on-november-6th-the-monster-vote-is-here/

Blogger Lazy Hero November 02, 2018 10:32 AM  

I voted this past Monday in Palm Beach County, FL. First day of early voting. Waiting in the voting line I heard an older lady with a thick NY Jewish accent ask a poll worker if she needed to show her ID. When he told her she did, she said "Gawd bless you, in Noo Yawk it isn't required." If a Yenta in blue Boca Raton feels this way, there is no blue anything but a Red Revolution is coming. I predict 7-10 Senate wins for us and we hold the House easily, meaning we could gain seats, or only lose in the single digits. The left will be canotonically apopletic.

Blogger Looking Glass November 02, 2018 10:36 AM  

FL is definitely the fascinating case this cycle. At least at this point.

One really under the radar race is Debbie Wasserman-Schultz seat. Shouldn't that be an easy win? Well, she's got a 3rd party, i.e. ejected Dem, that did well against her in a primary a few elections ago. There's a fascinating chance for a 3-way race going to the Rep in an utterly Blue seat.

While I can appreciate the bold prediction on the House, there is actually Net Gain scenarios for the GOP, but there's going to be some losses due to redistricting. So it's really a question of D->R vs R->D flips. Looks like there is a creeping up AZ & NV flips, CA mostly seems off the table for the Dems now. The two MN seats should flip R, but FL is big. If we get a full Blue Collapse on election day, we're going to get a few shocking flips there.

The other thing to watch is the anti-Voter Fraud moves. The hidden story of the Upper Midwest and PA was finding clever ways of preventing it from getting wracked up in the states that mattered. I expect they'll deploy that in NV this time. Clark County has a lot of phantom voters on election day. A lot.

Rough Carrigan wrote:If the republicans only had a net gain of 1 seat in the senate I'd be very disappointed. With all the low hanging fruit seats like ND, MT, FL and others I'd be surprised if they don't gain at least 4 seats.

On the Senate, NV & AZ are going to hold, and those are really the only competitive R defenses this cycle. Thus it's a question of D->R flips. MO & ND are locks. Neither is really even trying at this point. At least 2 of IN, WV, MT, FL, OH will flip. (FL & IN would be my favorites.) PA is unlikely, but Casey has always had relatively soft support.

The big question is what happens in the Upper Midwest. You've got 4 Senate seats up (MN x2, WI & MI) and an electorate that is in the process of shifting. In a "no big advantage either way" scenario, at least one of those is going to flip. My current guess is MN Special. Tina Smith made a disastrous optics move by not showing up to a debate.

And, let's not forget NJ. That's actually one of those elections where the incumbent is so poisoned, he might win the election and wipe out down ballot races.

Blogger Looking Glass November 02, 2018 10:42 AM  

Other under the radar aspect to watch is the 2024 proxy battle. Who between Pence & Don Jr can flip more Senate seats? Pence has spent a lot of time campaigning in the Upper Midwest, while Don Jr has spent time in the Mountain states, which include WV.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan November 02, 2018 10:46 AM  

If Trump comes out for SS and mediscam this weekend blue flush is all but guaranteed. In MO at least in the hinterlands McStupid's ads are whiter than the Dixiecrats' 1948 campaign, and I don't see them as effective since about 99% of the D party's rhetoric is die whitey die.

Blogger dh November 02, 2018 10:57 AM  

I like big bold predictions and I don't follow it like I used to.

However, this is a unlikely scenario being predicted. Looking at a few individual races, it is basically impossible at this point for his prediction to be correct. There are at least 5 seats where the GOP incumbent candidates have basically stopped campaigning:

Iowa 1st District - Democrat candidate is up +15
Virginia 10th District - Democrat candidate is up +11
Penn 17th District - Democrat candidate is up +12
Minn 2nd District - Democrat candidate is up +12
Colorado 6th District - Democrat candidate is up +10

I know what everyone is thinking. Trump changes everything. However.

* All of these are Republican incumbent seats.
* All of these seats where Clinton won the district by +5 points minimum (and in some, cases, like VA-10, it was +15 points)
* The Republicans have pulled resources from these districts to put elsewhere
* In some cases, the candidates themselves have already given up office space and moved out of Washington DC. And in some cases, like CO-6, the candidates are being tied explicitly to Trump and taking a beating because of it. Trump is popular geographically, he is not popular in the ex/suburbs.


It is impossible to make predictions about House races using national polling, or national trends. Also, in all US history, no House election has ever retained all incumbents from any party. I checked going back to the 1st Congress.

Blogger Crew November 02, 2018 11:01 AM  

I think it is possible the Trump Party will pick up seats in the house!

However, we should perhaps wait until after 2020 to call it the Trump Party!

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 02, 2018 11:04 AM  

@25, Yeah, one of McCaskill's radio ads makes her sound like she's itching to start digging holes for the Wall herself. There's another one that talks about how super-independent she is. She's scrambling to separate herself from the Democrats after she had to vote with them on Kavanaugh.

Blogger VD November 02, 2018 11:09 AM  

Also, in all US history, no House election has ever retained all incumbents from any party.

I don't think his claim is quite that bold. I think he's saying no House seats lost in either Florida or Nevada, which is still a pretty strong call.

Blogger Xiety November 02, 2018 11:10 AM  

As Dave and others have pointed out, the prediction is limited to Florida and Nevada.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 02, 2018 11:10 AM  

As others have said, I'm pretty sure he's just talking about Florida here. Not losing a single R House seat across the whole country would take even internal R polls being off by double-digits in some places. But FL has been a big part of the Democrats' hopes for taking the House, so if they don't steal a single seat there, they're in bad shape.

Blogger dh November 02, 2018 11:10 AM  

That's pure wishcasting, and would have previously gone unchallenged. Now, as has been pointed out here, it's just ignored. Looks especially silly in light of what happened in 2016.

I don't view it that way. The House election has a few themes shaping. Obviously we need to see some votes to know what is real. My take is:

1. The Suburbs were soft on Trump in 2016, and they appear ready to break against him in total. Several heavy suburb districts are polling a +15 swing against Trump since 2016. This is the type of place where nice white suburban women who drive minivans don't like the way Trump talks. They may like some of his policies, but they don't like looking bad to their liberal friends, they have big complexes about not living in big cities, and they want to be seen as urbane and sophisticated. Their husbands vote Trump, but they don't advertise it. VA-10 is the prototypical test case for this. Almost all suburban voters. Women from both parties on the ballot. In 2016, voted +10 Clinton, but the Republican House rep won by +8. That race is now polling +11 against the same Republican House rep.

2. Partisan gerrymandering is very effective, and when it gets undone by judicial fiat, the results will swing a lot of seats. Pennsylvania has 18 seats, which have gone as far as 13-5 in favor of Republicans in 2016. It looks like there will be about 8 or 9 solid Trump seats in 2018, meaning the Democrats may pickup as many as 4 seats in just Pennsylvania. This will be spun as a big win for Democrats, but it's really basically undoing past big wins for Republicans from past cycles. I consider it reversion to the mean, basically.

3. Nationalism is the type of issue that the media loves, but that does impact real people because some people care what the media says. Those are the suburban votes from above, and they really care what their nice liberal neighbors say, and what there kids at universities say about them, and all that. Not everyone is a hardcore culture warrior. Social pressure is real.

Blogger dh November 02, 2018 11:12 AM  

I don't think his claim is quite that bold. I think he's saying no House seats lost in either Florida or Nevada, which is still a pretty strong call.

I totally missed that - big difference. I think though Florida has a few hopeless cases where the incumbents are basically no longer campaigning actively. So I still think unlikely, but I really misread that one. Woosh, right over my head.

Blogger LP999-16 November 02, 2018 11:17 AM  

The way His Honor Kavanaugh was treated was beyond appalling, Americans didn't forget that like criminals the left and fake right are reigned in via the ballot box. It is not anyone's fault there will not be a blue wave, the democrats and the oldball portions of the right that refused to appear with the POTUS in Pittsbugh this week was also terrible. Great thing Paul Ryan and McConnell are probably retiring or losing their seats. Nevertrumpers, man.

I cannot believe MO is going to allow anymore of Clair McCaskill, she has said some absurd things this week along with the shame of the party, HRC and her shenanigans.

The left has historically shrunk or lost seats hence why POTUS Trump won (and beautiful prayerful Melania is my FLOTUS).

4 to 5 more days to find out, so excited for the results.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan November 02, 2018 11:26 AM  

I'm not going to argue with dh's polling of the house seats but to say in that blog mentioned he does focus on SoCal and thems is pretty much the burbs. He even goes so far as to call it the Red Tide.

The Colorado early voting data does have the D party slight advantage in 2018 versus 2016.

Blogger VD November 02, 2018 11:42 AM  

Nationalism is the type of issue that the media loves, but that does impact real people because some people care what the media says. Those are the suburban votes from above, and they really care what their nice liberal neighbors say, and what there kids at universities say about them, and all that. Not everyone is a hardcore culture warrior. Social pressure is real.

I think you're completely misreading the way that the social pressure is working. I'm hearing longtime white suburban liberals talking more harshly than Pat Buchanan ever has on immigration. They are finally beginning to grasp that they can't run away any longer, that they will be chased down no matter where they go.

Blogger dh November 02, 2018 11:48 AM  

I think you're completely misreading the way that the social pressure is working.

The best part about elections is that eventually the proof is in the pudding!

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 02, 2018 11:49 AM  

This is the type of place where nice white suburban women who drive minivans don't like the way Trump talks. They may like some of his policies, but they don't like looking bad to their liberal friends, they have big complexes about not living in big cities, and they want to be seen as urbane and sophisticated.

That all sounds reasonable, but how is 2018 different from when the same effect was expected in 2016? Appreciate you laying out your reasoning and what you're basing it on, by the way.

Blogger Cary November 02, 2018 11:50 AM  

dh thanks for a laying out the R suburban women abandoning Trump argument in more detail than I’ve seen elsewhere.

As I’ve understood it elsewhere and in what you described, these women are historical R voters who supported Trump and the R candidate in 2016 but are now voting D because they have turned against Trump. Thus these early voting leads aren’t real because it includes these R women voting D.

How is this squared with the R enthusiasm polling and R support of Trump polling? Both are up and slightly higher than for D’s.

Blogger rumpole5 November 02, 2018 11:57 AM  

It is hard for me to believe that such a clearly evidenced trend in several mail in and early voting states does not also reflect sentiments in the rest of the country. The Democrats have been so badly behaved: black masked thugs smashing windows, people being mobbed in restaurants and hallways, long known sex claims being dumped at the last moment, hearings disruped by freaks and loudmouthed, rude, polititions, and multiple public statements using incendiary language and promoting explicit incivility.

What shopper has not wished for the spoiled screaming brat throwing a tantrum to be soundly beaten? Many voters feel the same way about Democrats now. They are scum!

Blogger Rick November 02, 2018 12:08 PM  

Social pressure? Voting is anonymous.

Also, it’s not at all like 2016 in this way. Back then, you could make the argument that Trump was untested as POTUS.

Blogger Stilicho November 02, 2018 12:23 PM  

The media is the Make-A-Wish Foundation for the left. The left makes a wish and the media try to make it come true. Their polls are just another wish-fulfillment tool.

dh was wrong about Trump/Hillary and the cultural/political zeitgeist in 2016. Now that he's predicting a change back in the direction of what he predicted in 2016, I'll remain more than a little skeptical of his prediction and his demotivational efforts. We'll know more on November 7.

Blogger A rebel without a General November 02, 2018 12:31 PM  

If Democrats get nothing in Florida they will be not be sleeping easy for a while.

Blogger James Dixon November 02, 2018 12:32 PM  

> They may like some of his policies, but they don't like looking bad to their liberal friends

They love the increased paychecks and stock returns his policies have generated though. So that may be a wash. And people who will vote R in such districts are by now adept at lying about it.

As I've said, I have no idea exactly how it will turn out, but I consider the chances of the Dem's taking the House at well under 50% now.

Blogger James Dixon November 02, 2018 12:35 PM  

> I'll remain more than a little skeptical of his prediction and his demotivational efforts.

Dh has always been honest with us, Stilicho. His judgement may be in question, but not his motivations.

Blogger Random #57 November 02, 2018 12:36 PM  

@22 Lazy Hero:

I voted this past Monday in Palm Beach County, FL. First day of early voting. Waiting in the voting line I heard an older lady with a thick NY Jewish accent ask a poll worker if she needed to show her ID. When he told her she did, she said "Gawd bless you, in Noo Yawk it isn't required."

If you're wondering why Trump campaigned last night in Columbia, MO, home of the infamous University of "I Need Some Muscle" Missouri, when Claire McCaskill was considered to be the most vulnerable Democratic Senators, the Missouri voter ID law got nullified by the state courts a few weeks ago.

Blogger James Dixon November 02, 2018 12:36 PM  

> Several heavy suburb districts are polling a +15 swing against Trump since 2016.

Was that before or after Kavanaugh, dh? Kavanaugh was a lightning rod for R voters.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 02, 2018 12:38 PM  

And people who will vote R in such districts are by now adept at lying about it.

That's something else I've been seeing more talk about lately: Trump supporters lying to pollsters, either because they don't trust them and want to screw them up, or because they don't want to tell a stranger on the phone that they support Trump and risk an SJW attack of any sort.

I don't know how much of a thing it is, but it is a thing. And when pollsters are having to call tens of thousands of numbers just to get a few hundred responses to work with, a handful of people who answer the phone just to lie could be significant.

Blogger dh November 02, 2018 12:58 PM  

Was that before or after Kavanaugh, dh? Kavanaugh was a lightning rod for R voters.

Most of the polling is fully post Kavanaugh. Almost all the polling shows that Kavanaugh appointment was a net negative for women voters, who are the voters that are most swinging (theoretically), in this election.

I would say in defense of 2016, my final prediction made 2 weeks out from the election was off by .2% in popular vote margin. I predicted 41 out of 50 states correctly. I did better than almost any detailed predictor out there. And no, saying, "Trump in a landslide" isn't a detailed prediction. That's one guess, you were at 50%. I got to 85% of my predictions.

Also, I would say, that if facts like reporting what other pollsters are finding are "demotivators", then your problem is with reality, not with me.

On polling:

I don't know how much of a thing it is, but it is a thing. And when pollsters are having to call tens of thousands of numbers just to get a few hundred responses to work with, a handful of people who answer the phone just to lie could be significant.

The basis of statistical representation is pretty solid. They find people who do talk, ask them who they say they voted for in 2016 and 2012. The re-weight to match the geographical regions distribution of vote totals from 2012 and 2016, and then apply a filter for how likely they think this person is to actually vote. The often use a strategy to find out if they really know how they will vote - this means asking them like where is your polling place, have you already registered, how many times have you voted in the past, etc. Lying to them is a thing, it can be a problem, but it would be a bigger problem if they lied about voting for Trump in 2016. There is loads of room for error, and almost all honest pollsters will disclose to you those parameters. Say what you will about the NYTimes, but they give you detailed information about their methodology, for example, here https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-co06-3.html.

Blogger Doktor Jeep November 02, 2018 1:06 PM  

This independent voter just dropped off his ballot at the Supervisor of Elections office.
Note: I saw a lot of hispanics (this is Florida after all) but also a lot of young shitlord types with older people.
Every shitlord and his mother?
Well even my mother voted in her district and she has not cast a ballot since 2000.
I would also add that this automatic "hispanic vote for the left" does not look as materialized as we tend to assume. I think the left is playing "Stone Soup" games on this: make it look like what they want already exists so that it comes to exist. Most hispanics I work with and cross paths with have guns and concealed carry permits and very wide conservative streaks. I also get to see the perspective of people who got in legally then turn on the news and see a horde of people they tried to get away from just coming to bust their way in.
We'll see.

Blogger Laramie Hirsch November 02, 2018 1:09 PM  

Fantastic news. Is America becoming red-pilled?

Blogger James Dixon November 02, 2018 1:47 PM  

> Most of the polling is fully post Kavanaugh.

Thanks. It wasn't clear from your post.

> And no, saying, "Trump in a landslide" isn't a detailed prediction.

I never said that. I said I didn't know who would win, but if Trump couldn't no Republican could. I was greatly relieved that he did.

> Also, I would say, that if facts like reporting what other pollsters are finding are "demotivators"

That wasn't me, dh. That was Stilicho.

> The basis of statistical representation is pretty solid.

In theory, yes. The practice seems to have left much to be desired. And, as I've noted in the past, the roughly 5% error rate towards Democrats my entire life has never been properly explained by the theory. I lived through those elections. I know what the polls were claiming. Trump was merely the worst and most recent example, not the only one. Yes, I know you don't believe me on that subject.

Blogger CoolHand November 02, 2018 1:51 PM  

Random #57 wrote:@22 Lazy Hero:
...the Missouri voter ID law got nullified by the state courts a few weeks ago.


That's not entirely true.

What got struck down was forcing someone without the proper photo ID to sign an affidavit saying that they know the law says "photo ID" but they showed up without it anyway, and that all they have to do is ask any one of a dozen state agencies to make them up one free of charge for next time.

The Dems said it was too onerous to make someone sign a paper at the polls when they are too lazy or stupid to follow the very simple rules.

You still cannot submit a ballot without some form of ID that proves you live in the district. They'll accept a great many things as ID, but if you can't produce anything at all with your name and a valid in-district address on it, you can't vote.

Well, you can fill out a ballot, but they won't allow it to be fed into the counting machines until you return with some form of acceptable ID.

The Dems hate this law, because it makes the easy methods of cheating quite a bit harder to pull off.

They found a judge that would enjoin the affidavit part of the law two weeks before voting, but not even that guy would invalidate the entire thing.

Judges get voted on here in MO, so there is little doubt that this fellow won't come through his next GO/NOGO election unscathed.

Hope they paid him well.

Ol' Clairbear is toast, affidavit or no.

I haven't met a single soul in months and months who intended to let her return to DC.

She is so hated that she didn't even attend he own town hall events in most of the state, because she knew folks would rake her over the coals if she showed her face.

Blogger Eric Blanton November 02, 2018 2:02 PM  

@21 Dave: Thanks for the link. Reading his blog he also has some prediction for California.

Blogger Xiety November 02, 2018 2:08 PM  

dh wrote:I would say in defense of 2016, my final prediction made 2 weeks out from the election was off by .2% in popular vote margin. I predicted 41 out of 50 states correctly. I did better than almost any detailed predictor out there. And no, saying, "Trump in a landslide" isn't a detailed prediction. That's one guess, you were at 50%. I got to 85% of my predictions.
On election day itself, you called 322 or 323 electoral votes for Clinton. Your winning percentage in the fraction of states that are actually tough to call is far more meaningful than the 41/50 that you cite.

Blogger Noah B The Savage Gardener November 02, 2018 2:08 PM  

R's losing seats in Congress wouldn't be a bad thing if it's the cucks getting voted out. Speculation on this front is just about worthless for the time being, but it will be interesting to look at who got voted out and why post-election.

Blogger The Greay Man November 02, 2018 2:14 PM  

Noah,

The cucks are more likely to leave if the Republicans win.

I expect the bigger the Republican victory, the more cucks writing "Why I left the Republican Party" op-eds to appear in the next 3 months

Blogger The Greay Man November 02, 2018 2:14 PM  

Remember, the cucks only enjoy being a Republican when they are consistently losing.

Blogger Noah B The Savage Gardener November 02, 2018 2:16 PM  

@55 In 2016 there were no more than 15 states that were realistically in play, and getting fewer than half of them right is nothing to brag about.

Blogger DBSFF November 02, 2018 2:42 PM  

dh wrote:

1. The Suburbs were soft on Trump in 2016, and they appear ready to break against him in total.


Maybe, but the social pressure in the suburbs to vote against Trump could not have been higher than it already was in 2016. Trust me. And, to make your point, you're relying on polls--which did not accurately convey Trump's real support in 2016. I'm not talking about whether the Dems will pick up seats in PA, but I am skeptical of the notion that a president with near 50% approval, great economic indicators, and multiple tangible successes to point to is going to blown out the way the media is predicting--especially given that they baselessly made the same predictions in 2016.

Blogger dh November 02, 2018 2:49 PM  

On election day itself, you called 322 or 323 electoral votes for Clinton. Your winning percentage in the fraction of states that are actually tough to call is far more meaningful than the 41/50 that you cite.

That's fine and fair.

Most of the 2016 predictors (here and internet wide), called for EV totals that were mathematically impossible to achieve. Indicating, they were just making up numbers, not actually trying to make predictions.

I think this is the difference between people like the Cook report, and others who are just trying to stick a finger in the wind.

I liked the blog post that Vox linked to because along with being bold, it attempts to make a case for why the bold prediction is correct (and that case is essentially, early voting compared with 2016 does not indicate a blue wave). I am not convinced this is a fair model to use to predict, but it is a model, and it's rational, and it has some basis in history, so I have to tell you it's pretty interesting and I am looking forward to see how it turns out.

On election day itself, you called 322 or 323 electoral votes for Clinton. Your winning percentage in the fraction of states that are actually tough to call is far more meaningful than the 41/50 that you cite.

Where was your state by prediction, so we can compare results?

Just so we have it, for final comparison, my predictions for Tuesday are:

Senate: 47 Dems/Leaners; 53 Reps/Leaners.

(Race level predictions: I think Tester, Menedez, Rosen, Nelson, McSally, Braun, Hawley, Cruz, Blackburn, and Cramer win seats in the Senate; biggest tossups are McSally, Braun, and Hawley. Dark-horse for an upset is that Cruz loses.

House: 220 Dems; 215 Reps.


Blogger Random #57 November 02, 2018 2:50 PM  

@53 CoolHand:

Based on for example this and this article, it's much worse than you believe. Previously, if you didn't have one of the required voter ID cards, you could indeed use this second method as the second link says:

Showing other kinds of identification that show the person's name and address, "coupled with the requirement that the individual sign an affidavit, under pain of perjury, that they are the person on the identification, and the resident voter."

Or you can make a provisional ballot, which doesn't get fed into the machines right then. What was nixed was the second option's affidavit, which is what gave the law teeth. They'll show that looks like a utility bill or whatever, their ballot will immediately get into the counting machine and anonymized. There can be no followup, no penalty of perjury, although I suppose some counties' voter registrations systems might allow recording that the second option was taken. But I seriously doubt the ones that will count in running up the Democratic total.

Blogger Noah B The Savage Gardener November 02, 2018 3:01 PM  

"Where was your state by prediction, so we can compare results?"

I'm not the one bragging about the accuracy of my electoral predictions.

Blogger James Dixon November 02, 2018 3:27 PM  

> Just so we have it, for final comparison, my predictions for Tuesday are:

OK, dh. You predict a 5 seat D win in the House. Since you want a comparison, I'll go out on a limb (note I have absolutely nothing to gain by doing so, but you're obviously wanting someone as a foil, and it might as well be me) and predict that the R's hold the House by 1-2 seats. If I'm wrong, I still don't think the D's will gain it by more than 1-2 seats. Let's see if your poll analysis or my gut feeling is more accurate. Good enough? With gains in the Senate that makes it far more of a red tide than a blue wave.

Personally I hope I'm wrong and the R's actually gain seats. But historically that's not been the case, and I'm not sure the Trump effect is enough to overcome those historical forces.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 02, 2018 3:28 PM  

R's losing seats in Congress wouldn't be a bad thing if it's the cucks getting voted out.

One reason people have assumed Republicans are fighting uphill is that about 40 Republican incumbents in the House are not running again because they're running for a different office or retiring outright from politics (ahead of scandal, I assume). They aren't all Flake/Ryan types, but quite a few are. If a few of them are replaced by Democrats and the others replaced by more Trumpian Republicans, it could be a net gain.

Blogger dh November 02, 2018 3:31 PM  

. I'm not talking about whether the Dems will pick up seats in PA, but I am skeptical of the notion that a president with near 50% approval, great economic indicators, and multiple tangible successes to point to is going to blown out the way the media is predicting--especially given that they baselessly made the same predictions in 2016.

I think you underestimate the power of mass media. Trump has a mentality of being in the news is good, and he's in the news. Time will tell very soon if this always positive or not.

The pressure to vote against Trump now is way worse than it was in 2016. Not even close. In 2016, he wasn't expected to win. This is the first chance the "resistance" has had since the election to make a statement against the Trump administration and Trump personally. The pressure is much more intense.

I'm not the one bragging about the accuracy of my electoral predictions.

I am simply point out the facts, not bragging. Even if you call it 50% accurate - fine take off the "gimme states" - that's something to note that's different than "was wrong".

Blogger dh November 02, 2018 3:33 PM  

JD--

I like your prediction. I think the Pennsylvania effect is the tipping point - the undoing of the partisan gerrymander is too strong to not result in an additional loss of at least 3 seats, maybe as many as 5.

I don't see what combination of seats of gets to your number, though, so I wouldn't be able to endorse it. There are too many similar seats that will win or lose based on the same situations

Blogger dh November 02, 2018 3:34 PM  

JD, also, I do think this will be close. An additional shift if +2 points towards Republicans would shift or undo the shift on 10 seats. A +2 shift towards the Democrats could swing an additional 15 seats. Meaning, a 4 point margin of error swing from the median is literally 25 shift swing.

Blogger Noah B The Savage Gardener November 02, 2018 3:38 PM  

My prediction is that Dems pick up 14 house seats and lose 4 Senate seats.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 02, 2018 3:40 PM  

USA Today opinion column: "Dear Semi-Trumpers, please resist a little and vote Democrat in midterms". Ha! Isn't the story of Trump that there *are* no semi-Trumpers, that everyone either loves or hates him? I get that they're trying to appeal to people who pride themselves on being fence-sitters, but still, that's weak. I think they're running out of narratives.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 02, 2018 3:49 PM  

Er, I missed a word, that was "Dear concerned Semi-Trumpers." Even better.

Blogger tuberman November 02, 2018 3:51 PM  

65. Damelon Brinn

Likely a large percent of the retired R's were comped globalists, and working completely for that side, and this was beyond bribes.

Blogger James Dixon November 02, 2018 3:51 PM  

> There are too many similar seats that will win or lose based on the same situations

There's always a degree of apparent randomness in election outcomes. Apparently similar situations often give different results. What can I say? They're people, not statistics.

> JD, also, I do think this will be close. An additional shift if +2 points towards Republicans would shift or undo the shift on 10 seats. A +2 shift towards the Democrats could swing an additional 15 seats. Meaning, a 4 point margin of error swing from the median is literally 25 shift swing.

Now on that we agree. But unlike you, I think the bias in the polling is at least two points, and probably more. In most races, that won't be enough to matter, but in the tossup races it will be.

Like I said, it's purely a gut feeling. Let's see what it's worth.

Blogger James Dixon November 02, 2018 3:53 PM  

> Er, I missed a word, that was "Dear concerned Semi-Trumpers." Even better.

Their concern is noted. :)

Blogger Noah B The Savage Gardener November 02, 2018 3:54 PM  

The pressure to vote against Trump now is way worse than it was in 2016. Not even close. In 2016, he wasn't expected to win. This is the first chance the "resistance" has had since the election to make a statement against the Trump administration and Trump personally. The pressure is much more intense.

That works both ways, which is why turnout is high. Unengaged right wingers who never thought Hillary could be beaten have seen Trump win and attempt to follow through with his promises, many of which he has kept despite strong opposition from his own party. And they've seen him come under baseless and relentless attack from the media and bureaucrats as a result, even though nothing happened to Obama for weaponizing the IRS and all the other criminal schemes he pulled. So the right is pissed off in a way that I don't think you appreciate.

Immigration issues also heavily favor Republicans, and the invasion caravan and citizenship issues have happened at just the right time.

Blogger tuberman November 02, 2018 3:55 PM  

69. Noah B The Savage Gardener

Sane prediction, and far short of the MSM talking point people.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash November 02, 2018 3:55 PM  

dh wrote:Also, I would say, that if facts like reporting what other pollsters are finding are "demotivators", then your problem is with reality, not with me.


Motivation/demotivation is the ENTIRE point of publicly released polling.
And I can't believe you're here proclaiming your accuracy in the Trump election. That's funny. We could have gotten better results flipping a coin.

Blogger Kentucky Packrat November 02, 2018 4:14 PM  

dh, I'm curious if you have an opinion/prediction on the Barr/McGrath race in Kentucky?

This is the race that made me certain that there wasn't going to be a real blue wave in the US. Rural Central Kentucky is pro-gun, socially conservative, pro-coal (even if it shouldn't be), and generally trending pro-Trump red. There are a lot of old-school conservative Democrats who could get elected in the district, and Kentucky had conservative Democrats who could have fit the bill.

Moreover, Barr is heavily beatable. He's a seat-warmer with very few positive accomplishments. He can barely run a positive ad, because he has few things to brag about. A yellow dog could just about beat him.

So what do the Democrats do? Run three anti-gun, anti-coal, pro-abortion Democrats, one who was both gay and had a previous history of losing state-level elections. McGrath is trying to run as the "rural Democrat" in counties that turned Republican, while having made a bunch of taped conversations with hard-left money makers on the coasts that Barr has been putting in his commercials.

The polls are saying a dead heat now. IMHO, I don't believe it. People are probably expressing their displeasure with Barr by polling against him, but he will win by 53 to 55% at least.

This was supposed to be one of the "can be flipped" Republican seats. If this was how the national Democrats flip a seat, they're going to lose House seats, not gain them.

Blogger The Deplorable Podunk Ken Ramsey November 02, 2018 4:14 PM  

dh you say the incumbent (Barbara Comstock) has quit campaigning in Virginia's 10th District. I'm nearby it. From what I see she shows no sign of having quit at all. She's still actively campaigning and I have heard her being interviewed twice this week on local radio, plus having events.

Meanwhile her opponent, Jennifer Wexton, has had an extremely embarrassing week. She had her campaign team dress up in what looked like Party Store police officer uniforms and pretend to be local cops endorsing her campaign. So she got caught out in a yuge Stolen Valor kind of thing this week.

Blogger DBSFF November 02, 2018 4:17 PM  

66. dh

The pressure to vote against Trump was, from my experience, far more extreme in 2016. We shall see.

Blogger dh November 02, 2018 4:28 PM  

dh you say the incumbent (Barbara Comstock) has quit campaigning in Virginia's 10th District. I'm nearby it. From what I see she shows no sign of having quit at all. She's still actively campaigning and I have heard her being interviewed twice this week on local radio, plus having events.

Sorry, I mean, the Republican party has pulled all of her resources to other districts. Unless the incumbent is really brain dead they'll at least keep trying till the end.

Blogger Revelation Means Hope November 02, 2018 5:01 PM  

My quiet, polite yet intensely passionate talking point when this topic comes up at social events here in the heart of blue liberal Hillary-loving California is simple.
I have a young son.
One party just went all-in on blatantly making up a complete, utter BS set of lies about someone they were opposed to, 35 years later.
That party, and all who claim allegiance to that party, have clearly declared allegiance to the father of lies (if the people I'm talking to are Christians). Or have clearly demonstrated that they will do anything to destroy a political opponent (if non-christians).
And I am coldly furious about this and will oppose it for the sake of my son, my friend's children, and our nation.
And it is time to take our stand on what we believe in, in public, with kindness and compassion, and throw out being nice and trying to get along with those who are okay with destroying the future of our next generation.

The liberals get really quiet, not in a hateful brooding bitter way, but more solipsistic as they think about their own sons and nephews and husbands. The cuckservatives get a tiny bit more iron in their backbones. And the truly red-pilled get a few more effective talking points for their social network and family.

It works. Much better than a diatribe, at least with my own style and the people I hang out with.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 02, 2018 5:08 PM  

NY Times begins to temper Democrat expectations with this tweet today: "Lost in the talk about a Democratic "blue wave" against President Trump and Republicans is the fact that, for many Americans, daily life is good and the economy is working".

Blogger Ransom Smith November 02, 2018 5:10 PM  

Hillary won VA10 by something like 10 points.
And VA7 is probably a toss up thanks to all the carpetbagger who've moved into the area.

Blogger Stilicho November 02, 2018 5:35 PM  

@james Dixon: are you saying he has been honest about his leftist politics? Mostly and he has been honest about his atheism until his reported conversion to a denomination that condones his support of abortionists. And he will answer to his maker for that. Has he been honest about his attempts to demoralize those on the right? No. The soft hissing of the serpent, that amounts to "your efforts are in vain, look at this tree, ignore the forest, why do you struggle so hard in vain" can be heard in his comments more often than not. Whether it is effective is another story entirely.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 02, 2018 5:46 PM  

Also from WaPoo's opinion page yesterday: "A blue wave is predicted for the midterms. I’m not convinced." Other headlines include things like "If there is a blue wave..." and "....Dems fight to preserve blue wave."

Blogger J Carlton November 02, 2018 5:48 PM  

I think it's worse for the Dems than everybody thinks. I live in Connecticut. My mom said that she is worried that Lamont is going to lose and I'm seeing a lot of money being spent on races that should be safe for the Dems, like Jimmy Himes. That sort of says that things are tighter than the MSM polls would have us believe. Then there were all those things last month. The while fiasco with the Kavanaugh hearings speaks of desperation. After all, it they thought that they were winning, why not wait. I think that the deep state and the rest of them thought that they had things locked down forever and then found out that there is no forever. Now all the talk about things like higher taxes and open borders are going to hurt them and they know it.

Blogger Garuna November 02, 2018 6:32 PM  

The Caravan Invasion is a blessing. Final news cycle heading into the election and the supermajority of Americans are strongly aligned with Trump's immigration agenda. IIRC his four-pillar immigration reform plan had ~80%+ approval.

Blogger Garuna November 02, 2018 6:34 PM  

Even flaming liberal Perez Hilton came out against anchor babies and birthright citizenship when Trump attacked them. Immigration is a winning issue for us.

Blogger DJT November 02, 2018 6:51 PM  

>The pressure to vote against Trump was, from my experience, far more extreme in 2016

Agreed. Now there are clear successes to point to, and not just bluster.

There was a long line of women casting BS at Trump for all of October in 2016. What do they have now?

Blogger DJT November 02, 2018 6:54 PM  

All they have now is crybaby excuse "I don't like his tone." Even the most infantile woman has nothing to say when you tell her how stupid that is.

Blogger James Dixon November 02, 2018 8:04 PM  

> @james Dixon: are you saying he has been honest about his leftist politics?

He's never tried to hide or misrepresent any of his positions here.

> Mostly and he has been honest about his atheism until his reported conversion to a denomination that condones his support of abortionists. And he will answer to his maker for that.

Yes, he will. Not to me and not to you. God knows his heart. We don't.

> Has he been honest about his attempts to demoralize those on the right? No. The soft hissing of the serpent, that amounts to "your efforts are in vain, look at this tree, ignore the forest, why do you struggle so hard in vain" can be heard in his comments more often than not.

Argue with his math. That's what he's using to make his decisions. Or argue that the basis for his math is flawed, as I believe is the case. But don't pretend you know he's trying to deceive us. You don't. He's had plenty of opportunity to do so and I've never seen him do so.

Don't be blinded into thinking everyone who disagrees with us is an enemy. Sometimes they're just genuinely wrong and sometimes we're wrong. Dh's analysis of the Romney-Obama election was spot on, and I was completely wrong. I honestly thought Romney had a good chance to win.

Blogger Kat November 02, 2018 8:35 PM  

There's also this happening. The plantation slave base is crumbling. I mean, Tariq Nasheed telling black folks to sit this one out?

https://twitter.com/tariqnasheed/status/1058139188611043328

https://twitter.com/tariqnasheed/status/1058120504886718465

Blogger tuberman November 02, 2018 9:16 PM  

Naw, no Blue wave, period. Romney was a Globalist, and played along with the Globalist script. Everything has been off-script for the Globalists since PDJT showed up, and will continue to go off-script.

Polls are a joke, way off. Just part of the old script.

Blogger tuberman November 02, 2018 9:29 PM  

The God Emperor has brought with him his own, new improved script, and it's not about math at all. It's always been about who writes the story, and who can manifest it. Through power,and cunning, not wishful thinking, and the Globalist/Left are now the magical thinkers.

Blogger Crew November 02, 2018 9:39 PM  

Only a few more days to find out that Nate Silver's 538 was spouting bullshit again.

Blogger Crew November 02, 2018 9:45 PM  

I think the globalists may have screwed up in going down the white people are evil path as well.

Turnout among Republicans seems way up.

Blogger Timmy3 November 02, 2018 9:58 PM  

Voted in SoCalif. I wonder if Republicans keep Orange County.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 02, 2018 10:46 PM  

Orange County is one of those places I keep hearing Republicans like to vote Democrat. I dunno if that's a real thing, or just more explaning away big Republican early voting numbers.

Blogger Alexandros November 02, 2018 11:00 PM  

I want to believe.

Blogger Longtime Lurker November 02, 2018 11:14 PM  

Is it just me, or does anyone else think that the mid-terms feel more like a presidential election? I attribute that to DJT. When was the last we ever saw a president campaign like Trump and pack them in time after time? He's just killing it. That man is his own ground game.

Blogger Stilicho November 02, 2018 11:22 PM  

@james Dixon, there isn't any math at issue, it's all about the basis or underlying assumptions as you point out. Pretending it is "about the math" is just a means of obfuscating the real issue: are the polls generally accurate? Why/why not?

As for deception, he's merely a slightly more clever version of Porky. The pattern is there, just approaching from the left rather than the right. If you don't agree with my characterization of it as deception, that's fine. Call it psyops or propaganda from the enemy camp. Regardless, the pattern is there for recognition. Does it have the intended effect? I doubt it, but it does smell up the place with the same old stench periodically.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 03, 2018 1:08 AM  

@101, Agreed. The Democrats were already nationalizing the election by running against Trump, which played right into his rallies. The rallies aren't just (or even primarily) for the local candidate he's there to promote. They're for the whole region, and for everyone watching online. People are waiting in line for them, like tailgaiting at a football game. They're events, and by stringing them together, it feels like they're building to something big.

If Republicans can lose a bunch of seats with Trump's approval rating higher than Obama's after two years, with economic indicators soaring, and with him out there rallying the troops like he's 40 years younger....what would have happened without him, if we'd had two years of a respectable Republican following the old playbook?

Blogger Dirk Manly November 03, 2018 3:00 AM  

@5

"Perhaps some of the Broward County voter fraud people will see justice this time?"

It will have to be Federal.

If the State of Florida could handle the rampant criminal vote schemes in Broward County, then they would have been shut down
long ago. Merely arresting some low-level
operators would lead to "I was just doing what XYZ told me to do," and so on up the chain.

They haven't, which means there is some sort of cooperation with key people at the state level.

Therefore, FEDS have to do it.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 03, 2018 3:08 AM  

@13

"@Random #57,
In this election, the GOP holding every seat IS the black swan event."

You have been brainwashed.

The myth of The President's party ALWAYS loses seats in the midterm is only true for Democrats. Both Reagan and Bush Jr. benefitted from mid-terms. Reagan in 1982 and Bush in 2004. Trump is far more popular than even Reagan was. And the Democrats were far more civilized in 1982 than they are today.
Back then, they were marching in the streets about the homeless people... who came from the mental hospitals that the Blackmun-lead, left-leaning Supreme Court said could not keep their crazy patients institutionalized against their will, at the behest of some lefty lawyers by using some literally crazy person to push the suit through the system.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 03, 2018 3:11 AM  

@14

"Im sure there will be another "Scandal" to explain the Blue Wave hitting the Red Wall on par with Russia Russia Russia."

Yeah, like Georgia residents with Georgia driver's licenses and Georgia-plated cars not being allowed to vote in a Tennessee college town where they go to school. Oh, such a scandal!

And why is all their paperwork from Georgia and not Tennessee, which they claim is now their real home? Because they didn't want to pay the higher fees to get the Tennessee DL's and Tennessee plates on their cars. Which, by the way, if a violation of Tennessee law. Serve's 'em right.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 03, 2018 3:24 AM  

@32

"Those are the suburban votes from above, and they really care what their nice liberal neighbors say, and what there kids at universities say about them, and all that. Not everyone is a hardcore culture warrior. Social pressure is real."

I have never met anybody, in my entire life, who cares what their kids at college say about mom & dad's voting habits, other than, "some day, you'll grow up and stop being an idiot kid."

Blogger Dirk Manly November 03, 2018 3:28 AM  

@32

"This is the type of place where nice white suburban women who drive minivans don't like the way Trump talks. They may like some of his policies, but they don't like looking bad to their liberal friends, they have big complexes about not living in big cities, and they want to be seen as urbane and sophisticated."

They can vote for Trump, or Trump surrogate in the privacy of the voting booth, and then go to their cocktail party and tell their friends, yes, yes, of course they voted Dumbocrook... who wouldn't?

That's the beauty of the secret ballot.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 03, 2018 3:34 AM  

@39

"As I’ve understood it elsewhere and in what you described, these women are historical R voters who supported Trump and the R candidate in 2016 but are now voting D because they have turned against Trump. Thus these early voting leads aren’t real because it includes these R women voting D."

Who are these women who weren't offended by the Billy Bush "grab 'em" tape, and voted for Trump in 2016, but are suddenly offended by Trump now, when nothing he has said can be twisted as badly as that tape was.

Seriously, who are these women?

Women adore alphas. That's why they didn't bat an eye about the Billy Bush tape, because they knew, deep down inside, that Trump was telling the truth about female behavior -- if a woman is with a BILLIONAIRE, not only will she LET him molest her, she'll actively encourage it. That's why they gave him a pass then, and their attraction to an Alpha who is being 100% Alpha since taking office, and winning EVERY fight with the Dems.... that even attracts Democratic women ... especially those who are married, and have kids, and like the improved economy, so now they've got a bigger budget, rather than worrying if unemployment is only weeks away.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 03, 2018 3:39 AM  

@49

" Say what you will about the NYTimes, but they give you detailed information about their methodology, for example, here https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-co06-3.html."

This is the very same New York Times which predicted that Hillary would win with 98% certainty.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 03, 2018 3:49 AM  

@64

"
Personally I hope I'm wrong and the R's actually gain seats. But historically that's not been the case, and I'm not sure the Trump effect is enough to overcome those historical forces."

President's party ALWAYS loses seats in the midterms is a myth.

DEMOCRATIC President's Party ALWAYS loses seats in the midterms has been accurate for decades.

Republicans (Bush, 2002, and Reagan, 1982) both picked up congressional seats in the midterms.

Trump is far more popular than Reagan ever was, and he's accomplished more, and the economy turned around in only 18 months, whereas for Reagan, the economy didn't turn around until a year AFTER the 1982 midterms.

R's will have a net gain in both houses.

This is as obvious as the nose on my face.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 03, 2018 4:03 AM  

@66

"The pressure to vote against Trump now is way worse than it was in 2016. Not even close. In 2016, he wasn't expected to win. This is the first chance the "resistance" has had since the election to make a statement against the Trump administration and Trump personally. The pressure is much more intense."

Due to financial reasons(*), as I'm getting back on my feet financially, I'm stuck in a deep blue suburb of Detroit. I swear 50% of the people around here are able-bodied, yet somehow having all of their expenses paid by some sort of government program or another.
I saw quite a few Democratic Party lawn signs in 2016. I can count on one hand the number around here today.

Yes, I have to get out. Will happen soon. In the meantime, I have an AR-15 zeroed at 200M and 300 rounds of 5.56, just in case the neighborhood goes bonkers. Fortunately, the house is on a 5-lane wide main thoroughfare which also happens to be a state highway, and is across the street from a building which used to be a high school but has since been converted to a place of business.... I expect if there is ever any rioting, it will be more towards the downtown area, and assembly areas would be more on the side streets than in the middle of a state highway.

In any event, I have no problem with shooting rioters for rioting. And I know enough to fire from a position with the muzzle inside the room, rather than wagging around outside the window, showing muzzle flash and swishing around like a "here I am" flag.



(*) H1-B fraud and next-to-impossible-to-prove anti-reservist hiring attitudes combined with employer's reluctance to hire a college educated computer professional to do even minimum wage work "because you'll just find a $50,000/year job in a month and then I have to train your replacement!" [Seriously buddy, if it was that easy, I wouldn't be applying for your positions in the cleaning department.]

Blogger Dirk Manly November 03, 2018 4:05 AM  

@70

"USA Today opinion column: "Dear Semi-Trumpers, please resist a little and vote Democrat in midterms""

Sounds like a woman wrote that.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 03, 2018 4:06 AM  

Nope... written by a man.
How pathetic.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 03, 2018 4:09 AM  

"Dear CONCERNED Semi-Trumpers... "

Reminds me of the "Union of Concerned Scientists"... which, turned out to be 2 flunkies with a fax machine....

Strange how they're always "concerned"...and what concerns them the most is the possibility that people who have the defense and health of the nation and it's people in mind might get elected into political offices.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 03, 2018 4:27 AM  

@89

"Even flaming liberal Perez Hilton came out against anchor babies and birthright citizenship when Trump attacked them. Immigration is a winning issue for us."

I'm surprised that flaming faggot is still spouting off in public. Nobody has paid attention to that embarrassment of a man in years. And even then, it was for... like a week.

Blogger Azure Amaranthine November 03, 2018 7:34 AM  

"Dh has always been honest with us, Stilicho. His judgement may be in question, but not his motivations."

Yes. IMO he's again falling into the trap of using the enemy's information. If the enemy realize that people are applying an automatic offset to their information, what do you think they do? They apply a counter-offset so that the lie they wish to be told is still what is perceived.

Don't believe anything they say.

"I would say, that if facts like reporting what other pollsters are finding are "demotivators", then your problem is with reality, not with me."

Realistically on the morale front, it's best to be a little bit overly optimistic. A little let-down isn't a big deal compared to what that extra motivation can accomplish. The only bad deal morale-wise would be being way, way too optimistic, because all it can do is erode trust in your prediction for next time.

As far as your reporting polls being demotivative... what little of your track record I'm aware of does indicate that to be the case. That is the reality here.

"and then apply a filter for how likely they think this person is to actually vote..." "...There is loads of room for error, and almost all honest pollsters will disclose to you those parameters. Say what you will about the NYTimes, but"

...all I really need to say to that is that you'll know the tree by its fruit, and the NY Times' fruit is self-apparently rotten. It doesn't matter how good the skin looks if the essence of the thing continues to be full of worms.

Really dh, what's happening is we're applying offsets to you that would have made your predictions accurate if applied last time. If you're more accurate this time the offsets will decrease.

"I think you underestimate the power of mass media."

And increasingly larger quantities of people are applying escalating offsets to it as well. My personal offset is something like 98%, meaning I treat is as something akin to fairy-tale "entertainment" which is less likely to settle for a simple poisonous moral and more likely to be viscerally abhorrent in nature.

That power is rapidly draining down the toilet as larger and larger populations flee the cannibal holocaust for the comparative safety of our shores. Nested meanings intended.

Blogger Stilicho November 03, 2018 8:52 AM  

Rhetorical presentation vs dialectic analysis. The insidious rhetorical trick is to present the fact that some poll finds X, then present the the finding as fact or go even farther and claim that not only is X a fact, but then claim that the GOP candidate has preemptively surrendered based on X with the implication that any further support of that candidate is wasted.

Then we hear from a local Ilk that the GOP candidate has not surrendered after all.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd November 03, 2018 9:26 AM  

Dirk Manly wrote:... I'm stuck in a deep blue suburb of Detroit.
... I have an AR-15 zeroed at 200M and 300 rounds of 5.56, just in case the neighborhood goes bonkers...


We all need more ammunition, but you need way, Way, WAY more ammunition. And a couple spare barrels.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 03, 2018 1:02 PM  

I qualify high-sharpshooter to expert.

If it comes to shooting, it will be at ranges that I NEVER miss. 150m and under, especially with the target NOT disappearing in 4 seconds, means with 300 rounds, that's going to be at least 270 rioters with sucking chest wounds.

If 200+ rioters laying on the ground with half their chest blown out doesn't quell the riot, then more ammo isn't gonna help anyways.

Blogger Stilicho November 03, 2018 2:51 PM  

You still need more ammo.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash November 03, 2018 6:28 PM  

Everyone needs more ammo.

Blogger James Dixon November 03, 2018 9:23 PM  

> IMO he's again falling into the trap of using the enemy's information.

Agreed. And the fact that people here who lived through previous elections testify that it's always been wrong doesn't sway him. I'm not sure why that's the case, but it is.

But it is what it is. He's not trying to manipulate us. There are easy and better ways to do that, and he knows them. He's just trusting the math and data he has over personal experience.

Blogger James Dixon November 03, 2018 9:48 PM  

> are the polls generally accurate? Why/why not?

No, and they never have been. I went over some of the obvious problems with getting valid polls in one of the other posts. But dh thinks they are. Why, I don't know.

> If you don't agree with my characterization of it as deception, that's fine.

I don't.

> Call it psyops or propaganda from the enemy camp.

You know, you should allow for the fact that people can actually simply be wrong on occasion. Even consistently so on subjects where they have a blind spot.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 04, 2018 2:02 AM  

I get the impression that dh hasn't been through enough elections to notice yet that the press ALWAYS publicizes poll numbers that turn out to be more favorable to the Democrats than the election results. Even when Democrats win, they NEVER win by the margin which the pollsters used by the press predicted.

The press ALWAYS has their finger on the scale in these things, and ALWAYS on the same side.

Blogger SciVo November 04, 2018 7:09 AM  

Dirk Manly wrote:I have never met anybody, in my entire life, who cares what their kids at college say about mom & dad's voting habits, other than, "some day, you'll grow up and stop being an idiot kid."

Mental model: parents may be very invested in what a kid at college thinks if they're digging deep to help put him through private college, first in the family.

Hypothesis: you don't know anyone like that.

Reasoning: our classes are calcified; even "affirmative action" works against upward mobility, by mostly just helping to keep well-off non-white families from falling out of the middle class when their progeny's IQ reverts to their people's mean.

James Dixon wrote:He's not trying to manipulate us. There are easy and better ways to do that, and he knows them. He's just trusting the math and data he has over personal experience.

That is a rational response to a young man's awareness of personal susceptibility to cognitive bias, and we are all susceptible to cognitive bias. It is proto-wisdom.

Blogger SciVo November 04, 2018 7:13 AM  

The next step toward wisdom after that is to account for other people's bias.

Blogger James Dixon November 04, 2018 7:42 AM  

> It is proto-wisdom.

If the sources of the data were trustworthy, yes. But they're not.

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