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Thursday, November 01, 2018

On the record

It's important to put the pollsters on the record. Democrats are doubling down on the Blue Wave:
A political analyst updated his outlook for the House just days before midterm elections, giving the Democrats an even greater edge over Republicans hoping to maintain power. Dave Wasserman, who is House editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, tweeted Wednesday that their forecast was being updated, predicting that Democrats gain 30-40 seats, up from 25-35 seats. Wasserman added that this prediction could change before the Nov. 6 midterm elections.

The forecast suggests a so-called "blue wave" is more becoming more likely. Democrats need to flip 23 seats to take control of the lower chamber. In the Senate, which the GOP also controls, 24 Democrats and two independents who caucus with Democrats, are up for re-election. Nine Republicans are up for re-election. Only one seat, Sen. Heidi Heitkamp's, D-N.D., is rated anything below "toss-up" at "lean-R," according to Cook Political Report.

RealClearPolitics gives Democrats a smaller edge in the House than Cook, factoring in a number of toss ups. Their latest House elections map shows Democrats taking 203 seats versus 198 for Republicans. Thirty-four races are listed in the "toss ups" category.
So, we're expected to believe that the President's approval ratings are rising to the highest level of his presidency at the same time that the mid-term elections are going strongly against him? It does not add up. And while Wasserman is waffling only five days out, I will stick to my prediction from May 31, 2017, there will be no "blue wave".

Nate Silver presently predicts an 84.9 percent chance of Democrats taking the House.

Labels: ,

87 Comments:

Blogger Peaceful Poster November 01, 2018 1:06 PM  

May colleague offered me the following deal:

If the GOP wins the House, he pays me 2X
If the GOP loses the Senate, I pay him 4X

Would you take that bet?

Blogger Yordan Yordanov November 01, 2018 1:07 PM  

Hey Vox, have you seen Blair White talk about some of new "Conservative" personalities? https://youtu.be/S7Ft2E_ibxQ?t=421

Blogger Franz Lyonheart November 01, 2018 1:08 PM  

Dave Wasserman, who is House editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, tweeted

(((Wasserman))), (((nonpartisan))), Cook, tweeted.

Blogger CarpeOro November 01, 2018 1:20 PM  

Hung up on a likely polster last night. Still not tired of winning and looking forward to more Demican losses. Maybe even elect a Republican senator from Michigan for the first time since what, Spencer Abraham? I loathe Debbie Stabmenow.

Blogger VD November 01, 2018 1:22 PM  

Would you take that bet?

Yes.

Blogger Cloom Glue November 01, 2018 1:27 PM  

Peaceful Poster wrote:May colleague offered me the following deal:

If the GOP wins the House, he pays me 2X

If the GOP loses the Senate, I pay him 4X

Would you take that bet?



If he is offering better odds than a bookie:

https://www.bookmaker.eu/live-lines/politics

then maybe you can take his bets and neutralize the risk and take the differential profit, less expenses, at no risk to you.

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother November 01, 2018 1:27 PM  

These predictions do not agree with any sliver of reality. False.

Blogger Long Live The West November 01, 2018 1:30 PM  

It's pretty much impossble for Republicans to lose the Senate.

Blogger pyrrhus November 01, 2018 1:31 PM  

In our area of southern AZ, almost everyone has already voted by mail, or early at the polling place. So there isn't much room for changing minds...

Blogger Sterling Pilgrim November 01, 2018 1:31 PM  

I predict if these pollsters are wrong again, they’ll get the boot, and the media will stop using them all together and strike a deal with more celebs.
OT: what are the differences between oath keepers and promise keepers?

Blogger pyrrhus November 01, 2018 1:32 PM  

Obviously, in this environment Republicans will tend to under-poll, again.

Blogger JAG November 01, 2018 1:34 PM  

Dave Wasserman, who is House editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report,

There is no such thing.

Blogger Other Josh November 01, 2018 1:39 PM  

For the record: the Republicans will have a net gain of 2 seats in the house, and a net gain of 1 seat in the senate.

The winning shall continue.

Blogger Other Josh November 01, 2018 1:41 PM  

@10, I highly doubt it. They are of their father, who is a liar and a murderer. Any instrument they find useful in deceiving and destroying, they will use.

Blogger John Calla November 01, 2018 1:41 PM  

It's not completely unbelievable only in the sense that I've never seen the left as unhinged and hysterical as they've been since Trump took office. But I don't think it'll be as bad as they're projecting.

Blogger Longtime Lurker November 01, 2018 1:44 PM  

Nate Silver expects me to believe that Republicans will retain the Senate, but lose the House? In a land slide according to Wasserman?

For me to believe that, I would have to believe that polls have NO built-in bias favoring the Dems.

And I don't believe that. Because early voting is very favorable for Republicans, and unusually so from what I've read lately.



Blogger David Ray Milton November 01, 2018 1:44 PM  

@Sterling Pilgrim

I would love to believe it, but it seems the Left has no bottom threshold where they will cease doubling down. After the media's disastrous reporting and failed predictions in 2016, I think there were many of us who were saying, "MSM will never recover from this." And it is true, CNN's ratings are below Nickolodean's the last I heard, and yet the Narrative continues. They are not backing down.

Then I realized (and I was a little late to the epiphany) that all the Left has are Open Borders, the Deep State, and the Narrative (MSM and Colleges). They will give up on none of these.

If these three fail them, their only other move is Civil War.

Blogger Peaceful Poster November 01, 2018 1:47 PM  

@6 Cloom Glue

Good call. Thx.

Blogger WillBest November 01, 2018 1:49 PM  

The polls need to show this to give the Dems the cover to stuff the ballot boxes. If the polls were tracking the races honestly and predicting a GOP retain, a "surprise" blue wave would be deemed illegitimate.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 01, 2018 1:54 PM  

Also, when Democrats claim they always expected to lose ground in the Senate, remember that less than two months ago, they thought they could win both houses. They've already moved the goalposts considerably from their original Blue Wave expectations.

Blogger JAG November 01, 2018 1:55 PM  

WillBest wrote:The polls need to show this to give the Dems the cover to stuff the ballot boxes. If the polls were tracking the races honestly and predicting a GOP retain, a "surprise" blue wave would be deemed illegitimate.

Voter fraud is treason, should be defined legally as such, and promptly punished according to long standing legal tradition. That would put a stop to almost all of it.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 01, 2018 2:00 PM  

Democrats are taking a beating in early voting, so I keep watching for one to offer an explanation of why they will win anyway. All I see is people like Nate Bronzer offering the wishful thinking of, well, if Independents break left in record numbers, Democrats could be way ahead. Or they bring up the 2016 meme that 20-30% of Republicans hated Trump so much they would vote D. Which didn't happen then, but now they hope it will when he's not even on the ticket.

Blogger Azimus November 01, 2018 2:03 PM  

First thing I would ask this guy is how he changed his methodology from 2016. If he says, "not at all," there is no need to pursue further inquiry in the matter. You would think that some journalist will ask this question...

Blogger Desdichado November 01, 2018 2:05 PM  

CarpeOro wrote:Hung up on a likely polster last night. Still not tired of winning and looking forward to more Demican losses. Maybe even elect a Republican senator from Michigan for the first time since what, Spencer Abraham? I loathe Debbie Stabmenow.
John James seems way too much like a pretty standard civic nationalist, which is probably the best we can expect from a black Republican anyway, but he's light-years ahead of Stabenow. I'd take him over her in a heartbeat.

Blogger SemiSpook37 November 01, 2018 2:07 PM  

Can't even glance over at Real Clear Politics anymore because the numbers are just off. And Limbaugh reported earlier on Morning Consult's by-state approval numbers for the God Emperor in the following battlegrounds (keep in mind this is September, but still):

AZ: 47%
FL: 49%
IN: 50%
MO: 50%
MT: 51%
ND: 52%
OH: 46%
TN: 58%
WV: 62%

Part of me thinks a lot of those lower numbers have gone upward, especially in light of the crap that went on with the Kavanaugh hearings. In terms of those sub-50 figures, if they were below 45%, then I'd be worried those seats (Senate or House) would be completely lost. The reporting on the EV numbers are completely mind blowing, but definitely better than expected.

Keep an eye on the EVs, since those also take into account your 3rd party and unaffiliated numbers. As others have pointed out, the weighting is completely off on both of those samples (R and I), so it's going to be a total shitstorm when the initial polls called on Tuesday show Ds severely underperforming.

Man, that's going to be HILARIOUS to watch.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 01, 2018 2:10 PM  

I'm skeptical of how nonpartisan the Cook Political Report is, but for what it's worth, they predicted Clinton to win 278-214.

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother November 01, 2018 2:11 PM  

Yeah I'll take John James in a New York minute over Stabenow. If I was running, I'd flip her a quarter and tell her to use it to find some rats who can gnaw that thing off her face. Or is that Granholm. They all look alike, right Hillary?

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 01, 2018 2:18 PM  

Nate actually tweeted today that early voting numbers are less trustworthy than polls, because early voting numbers only tell you the party affiliation of the voters (muh crossovers), while with a poll you can ask people who they're voting for.

That's a screencap that'll be fun to have in a few days.

Blogger tuberman November 01, 2018 2:28 PM  

I've been in the hospital for several days with dizziness, cloudy thoughts and headaches, but I'm still more coherent than all these polls.

Time to hold them to all their BS, as this crap is always off.

Blogger Steb November 01, 2018 2:29 PM  

An interesting bit from the Harvard Youth poll which I haven't seen repeated in any of the 'record youth voter turnout' stories I've seen:

"As young Republicans have become more engaged, the preference among likely voters for Democrats to control Congress has decreased from a 41-point advantage in the IOP April 2018 poll to a 34-point lead today"

A 7 point drop among their most reliably brainwashed demographic. But the numbers haven't improved at all among older voters?

http://iop.harvard.edu/spring-2018-national-youth-poll

Blogger Cary November 01, 2018 3:23 PM  

This doesn’t even make sense from their own ratings. I was just on Cook’s site. They have 195 seats as solid/likely/lean R and 192 for D’s with 48 toss-ups. To win a 35 seat advantage that their new statement is talking about D’s would have to win 43 of the 48 toss ups. If they are truly toss ups you wouldn’t expect one side to win 90% of them.

45 of the 48 seats are currently R held. They do have more to lose, but also have the incumbent advantage in most.

Finally I live in OH-12, which is on their toss up list. This was the special election narrow R win a couple of months ago. The D’s had something like 90% of 2016 turnout while the R’s had maybe 60%. Post Kavanaugh, Trump campaigning, etc. all polling and early voting shows that R’s are at least as energized as D’s. If they couldn’t win this district with a huge turnout advantage, I don’t buy that it is even a toss up. How many of their other “toss ups” have no better chance for D’s. Add in Senate races becoming competitive in places like NJ and MI, and the blue wave looks like media manipulation trying to influence people.

Blogger JD Curtis November 01, 2018 3:23 PM  

Re: Florida early voting

"Republicans account for 41.9 percent of ballots cast and Democrats account for 40.1 percent. Because there are more Democrats than Republicans in the state (37 percent D and 35 percent R), it shows that Republicans continue to outperform Democrats in this election, but not by much — and by a lot less than the last midterm in 2014 (R+7)."

Link

Blogger Silly but True November 01, 2018 3:38 PM  

@VD,
Sort of related: what do you think of Jerome Corsi? Were you two ever at WND at same time?

What do you think his chances of not getting indicted by Mueller are?

In ideal world, it should be zero had he commented on Podesta leaks after Assange’s Oct. 2 statement.

But I don’t trust Mueller to not want a scalp in the Stone network and Corsi seems the first one in crosshairs.

Blogger Crew November 01, 2018 3:39 PM  

They are intent on destroying their reputations.

Blogger Cary November 01, 2018 3:42 PM  

Yes R’s are underperforming their 2014 results in early voting vs the D’s, but they are over performing 2016, which still won the House.

The mainstream narrative to explain away the early voting is that suburban R women have turned against Trump and thus they are R’s who are early voting for D’s.

I don’t know where this comes from. I haven’t seen polling to justify it. Support polling I’ve seen shows R’s supporting R candidates at a slightly higher level than D’s. Who are these mythical people who supported Trump in 2016 and are now against him?

Blogger Silver Chief November 01, 2018 3:42 PM  

OT: SJWs Always Double Down
https://professorconfess.blogspot.com/2018/10/get-woke-go-brokeleftist-school-loses.html
"This fall, we expect less than 300 freshmen to attend Evergreen, a fifty percent drop from two years ago," one Evergreen professor admitted on the site, Heterodox Academy. "
They still have 550 admins .....

Blogger tublecane November 01, 2018 3:44 PM  

They must be believers in the Secret, manifesting desired reality by thinking really hard or whatever.

Which is fine so far as raised expectations push more of your people to vite. But these predictions could lead to crushing disappointment the morning after. Not as crushing as '16, but bad for morale.

But they are double-downers.

Blogger Noah B The Savage Gardener November 01, 2018 3:54 PM  

Though lots of people I know have been upset or scared by something Trump did along the way, I don't know anyone who was a supporter in 2016 who isn't a supporter now. What I usually hear from right-leaning people is that he's done a much better job than they ever expected.

Blogger SciVo November 01, 2018 3:54 PM  

It's easy for news junkies to get caught up in minutia that doesn't actually affect people's votes. The critical fundamentals have not changed, so my prediction has not changed: my average expectation is that the Republicans will gain seats in the Senate and lose seats in the House, but keep a majority.

For perspective, if Democrats flipped the House, that would surprise me about as much as it would if Republicans got a filibuster-proof super-majority in the Senate.

Blogger DJT November 01, 2018 3:54 PM  

Nate Silver presently predicts an 84.9 percent chance of Democrats taking the House.

He's been as high as 87 percent in the last week. Yet early voting figures don't support this prediction.

Blogger SciVo November 01, 2018 3:58 PM  

If anything, the fundamentals have moved in Trumo's direction. If I were to revise my prediction at all, it is that if Republicans gained seats in the House, I would not be terribly surprised (though it is not my strongest expectation).

Blogger DouglasEdward November 01, 2018 4:02 PM  

@26 they had it 278-214 with 46 "toss up's" so still way off but you could argue a 278-260 race was what they were predicting depending on how the toss ups landed.

Blogger Looking Glass November 01, 2018 4:04 PM  

As a reminder, in 2016, they were explicitly lying through their mathematics within the polls. It wasn't that hard, 2 months out, to undo their skews and find Trump running between 5-7 points ahead of Hillary for the last 2 months. The Trump Tape definitely hurt, and the final 2-Party vote, less NY & CA, was 52-48. Pollsters used the large margins in NY & CA to simply massage whatever result they wanted. Mathematically, it was quite easy, and putting the "dirty work" deep in your cross tabs meant no one could realistically find it.

Public polling exists to set narratives, nothing else.

As for the upcoming election, it's been extremely nationalized. The Senate races along the Mississippi have taken on a heavy national focus. The upper Midwest ones are a little less nationalized because the Senators didn't get stupid during the Kavanaugh attacks. As a result, most of the country is voting along their 2016 lines. Minus redistricting, GOP would hold the House easily, but they'll likely shed 5-10 seats.

But, the BlueWave narrative was actually to fight the more likely scenario: Blue Collapse. The GOP is turning out early vote between 1.5-2.5% better than 2016, as a matter of differential. There's a few places that turnout is actually Up on 2016 in total. My expectation is that Election Day voting sees a larger advantage for the GOP than 2016 but not as good at 2014. (2014 was a Dem Fatigue election, so that's a bit of an outlier.)

I really hope we get a shocker one of the 4 Upper Midwest elections. Considering they have Obama stumping for them up there, and I'm kind of hoping Vukmir can unseat Baldwin. MN is the real question mark one. Polling in most of the Upper Midwest was pathetic during the last cycle (it seemed far less intentional there and more a methodology issue, considering how bad it was always off for everyone), but if a Blue Collapse scenario is fully underway, that's enough to flip at least the Open seat in MN.

Blogger Looking Glass November 01, 2018 4:09 PM  

Oh yeah, but, of this cycle, I still find the most hilarious thing is that "Beto", in TX Senate, happens to be married to a Billionaire. NYT dropped that after it was utterly clear he is completely toast. Really says "Punk Rock" to pulled a John Kerry and marry money.

Blogger Pastor November 01, 2018 4:14 PM  

@32
In Florida, R's are seriously outperforming on absentee ballots. Trump had thousands at his rally yesterday in FL while Bernie (also in FL) had maybe 150...

Blogger Garuna November 01, 2018 4:30 PM  

GALLUP: 2018 enthusiasm numbers don't match up with the anti-POTUS wave elections of the past 25 years. In fact, Republican enthusiasm for 2018 is HIGHER than Democrats. It looks like closer to 2002, which was good for President Bush.

1994: R+8 (wave against Clinton)
1998: 0
2002: R+5
2006: D+12 (wave against Bush)
2010: R+18 (wave against Obama)
2014: R+15 (wave against Obama)
2018: R+3

https://i.imgur.com/cOOzf5F.jpg
https://twitter.com/Barnes_Law/status/1058085714040999936

Blogger Garuna November 01, 2018 4:32 PM  

However, both Republican and Democrat enthusiasms are at record highs.

Blogger VFM #7634 November 01, 2018 4:41 PM  

@Damelon Brinn

Right. It's ridiculous. The President's approval rating among R's is what, 90%?

Blogger Looking Glass November 01, 2018 4:51 PM  

VFM #7634 wrote:@Damelon Brinn

Right. It's ridiculous. The President's approval rating among R's is what, 90%?


It's high enough he's getting 1000s out to multiple stump speeches per week across the country.

Interesting comment from Rep. DeSantis, running for FL Gov, that the early vote advantage is mostly Trump Voters that don't vote in the Midterms normally. Per their numbers.

Related, note the National Media has stopped talking about NV Senate? That should have been one of their easy pick ups in a BlueWave election. Funny, that.

Blogger Looking Glass November 01, 2018 4:54 PM  

One potent, but it's going to be under the radar for a while, aspect of this election is what Project Veritas are doing at the ground level. It's one thing to get hidden camera footage, but making being a low-level or mid-level volunteer for fake Moderate campaigns much harder is going to pay off.

Cutting your enemy's base at its roots is quite potent.

Blogger Silly but True November 01, 2018 5:05 PM  

Kavanaugh woke the beast and demoralized Dems?

This actually has a _multiplicative_ benefit: the Dems demoralized could be the shaman that was facilitating the dead to cast their votes.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 01, 2018 5:20 PM  

I don’t know where this comes from.

As far as I can tell, it's pure wishful thinking. They have to believe *something* will overcome the surprising R early voting edge, so suburban women crossovers it is.

So we're supposed to believe that Republican women who voted for Trump in 2016, right after the pussy-grab tape, when Democrats were claiming they had a whole room full of women ready to accuse him of sex crimes, when a lot of Republicans honestly weren't 100% convinced he wasn't a secret Democrat -- those women who voted for him then are going to vote against Republicans now, when jobs are up and the economy seems to be humming and none of the despotism Democrats predicted has happened. Just because OrangeManBad.

By the way, Trump just announced that if the Horde throw rocks at US soldiers like they did at Mexican police, that will be treated as if they used firearms. Also, catch-and-release is being replaced with catch-and-hold, no more turning them loose and hoping they show up for their hearing. Get your earplugs ready for the media's reeeeeing.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 01, 2018 5:23 PM  

@Looking Glass, I keep thinking: imagine if Project Veritas got exposure from even one mainstream network. Imagine if they were 60 Minutes, running their exposes to a large audience of normies who haven't changed the channel yet after football on Sunday. They probably could have forced a few campaign closures by now.

Blogger Garuna November 01, 2018 5:33 PM  

It's high enough he's getting 1000s out to multiple stump speeches per week across the country.

Trump has roughly the same approval w/Republicans as Bush right after 9/11! I mean, talking about feeling strongly about someone. A blue wave would require Republicans to be "meh" on Trump. But that is just not the case. As the Gallup enthusiasm numbers show, Republicans are actually a little ahead of Democrats.

Blogger Gen. Kong November 01, 2018 5:39 PM  

WillBest wrote:

The polls need to show this to give the Dems the cover to stuff the ballot boxes. If the polls were tracking the races honestly and predicting a GOP retain, a "surprise" blue wave would be deemed illegitimate.

That's what the D-jerseys have done for decades under a 1983 consent-decree signed by the R-jerseys. They put in Doug Jones of Alabama by busing in voters from as far away as St. Louis and the results certified by a Soros-backed AL Sec. of State. Meanwhile Jeff Sessions sits on his alleged mountain of indictments. It's not impossible for them to take the house if all the damned felons, illegal aliens and other numerous forms of vote-fraud are in play completely unopposed (the traditional Repuke position, assumed). Most of the R-jerseys running are of the kind who have voted for all of the Obama-level porkulus, Obamacare, etc. - e.g. as they are told to vote by their (((masters))). Even so, the house districts are gerrymandered to such an extent that a real turnover is difficult and unusual. Not that many house seats are in play at the end of the day.

Blogger Looking Glass November 01, 2018 5:41 PM  

Damelon Brinn wrote:@Looking Glass, I keep thinking: imagine if Project Veritas got exposure from even one mainstream network. Imagine if they were 60 Minutes, running their exposes to a large audience of normies who haven't changed the channel yet after football on Sunday. They probably could have forced a few campaign closures by now.

Which is precisely why they attack O'Keefe so much. The first is because he actually does what they all claim they want to do, and, second, he also gets actual "news". Leftism only "works" so long as one never has to actually deal with either consequences or consistency. Funny, that.

@54 Garuna

I can see the argument of soft GOP support through most of the second half of 2017. The Executive side changes wouldn't start paying off until 2018 and Congress was still being a major pain. But, enough arm twisting and everything has been rolling since the SOTU. Almost like half of DC suddenly was acting differently. I wonder what might have happened?

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 01, 2018 5:55 PM  

Looks like O'Keefe has one on Beto for tonight. Beto is done anyway, but he's saving up for 2020, so he's still a fine target.

Another data point: Ohio doesn't release early voting numbers, but they do say how many ballots were requested in each district. Requests in R-heavy districts were up, D-heavy were down. There are lots of data points like that across the country that all point to high R enthusiasm and turnout. Opposing all those points, they have their polls.

Blogger Emmett Fitz-Hume November 01, 2018 7:12 PM  

My biggest worry isn't the polling numbers. Its the corrupt machine. The Leftists are desperate enough this time around to really screw with the process and find a few million votes in the trunk of a car.

Regarding James O'Keefe, that guy is definitely one of the good guys. Talk about a guy who put his money where his mouth is and his ass on the line.

Blogger James Dixon November 01, 2018 7:27 PM  

> I predict if these pollsters are wrong again, they’ll get the boot, and the media will stop using them all together

Ain't gonna happen. They're part of the propaganda arm of the party. They give the press the "scientific" basis for their false claims.

> First thing I would ask this guy is how he changed his methodology from 2016.

The correct comparison is 2014. Midterm and Presidental elections have different dynamics. In this case, both of them point to a red tide for the Democrats though.

If I wanted to use math, I think I could show that the odds of the Dem's taking the House were never much better than 60-40 if everything went their way. It hasn't, and they're well under 50% now.

I have no real idea what the outcome will be, but if the Dem's do take the house it'll be close, and the Republicans keeping control is more likely.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 01, 2018 8:17 PM  

The pollsters will get close enough to the margin of error by election day that they don't look completely incompetent or corrupt. They always do, at least enough of them that people shrug it off by next time. Nate Silver's method, framing it in terms of scenarios and odds instead of vote percentages, is kind of brilliant, because no matter what happens he can say he gave it odds, even if they weren't good odds. Republicans could gain 10 seats in the Senate and 20 in the House and he would have an article ready to explain how that actually fits one of his scenarios.

Blogger Looking Glass November 01, 2018 8:55 PM  

@59 James Dixon

The only way for the Dems to win the House would be for a historic collapse of GOP turnout. Thus the "BlueWave" lies.

Blogger Wolfman at Large November 01, 2018 8:59 PM  

Five more days to Winning 2.0.

Almost can't sleep.

Blogger justaguy November 01, 2018 9:25 PM  

The DNC hacked emails on wikileaks shows the games played by the parties on polls-- it was very detailed in the instruction about who, where and when to conduct poll to get the desired outcome. With that starring us in the face, how can we get any idea of the 435 house races, many of which are well beyond areas that we actually know about?

The only real poll will be on Tuesday.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 01, 2018 9:47 PM  

Looks like the Beto campaign was sending donations south to fund the invasion. Naughty, naughty. That might explain why he didn't want to share the wealth with other Democrats when it became obvious he couldn't beat Cruz.

I'm sure all the networks will be covering this important story in the morning.

Blogger Dave November 01, 2018 10:10 PM  

We'll never hear this from the MSM:

"THIS TWEET SAYS IT ALL FOLKS! We will absolutely flip MN-D1 and MN-D8 and win the AG Seat in MN. I also like our chances to flip Franken’s Senate Seat in MN. Keith Ellison has destroyed the Democrat Party in MN."

https://fleporeblog.wordpress.com/2018/10/31/stop-listening-to-the-msm-fake-polls-the-data-is-deadly-for-democrats-maga-voting-news-as-of-10-31/

As a commenter noted at the Treehouse; "This guy called almost every state correctly in 2016.
https://fleporeblog.wordpress.com/

Blogger Looking Glass November 01, 2018 11:00 PM  

In a slightly surprising turn of events, we finally know how O'Rouke was raising so much for his Senate campaign. It was actually a money laundering system to fund the Caravan.

https://twitter.com/JamesOKeefeIII/status/1058184496762241025

I honestly did not see that one coming, but it opens up all of the NYC/LA/SanFran fundraisers to Wire Fraud charges. This is going to be fun.

Blogger Meng Greenleaf November 01, 2018 11:02 PM  

I encouraged everyone I could, to vote straight GOP for this election (and consider doing so again in 2020). I'm hoping a few fence sitters got off the fence and voted. That said, TTYTT, I am somewhat concerned. A little.

But, I'm not sure why I feel so concerned. Why?

If the GOP losses in a so-called blue-wave, then I suspect the DEMs will overreach and show their cards. It will become evident to even the dimmest bulb, that the DEM Party is the Party of Hate.

The irony that White and E. Asian males are the members of society with and an average excess productive capacity required to pay for all the progressive socialism / public expenditures that the Progressive Party of Hate wants to promise, is somewhat interesting.
I wonder what the democratic Actuarian's think about all this?

Blogger Looking Glass November 01, 2018 11:33 PM  

https://twitter.com/VICE/status/1058092210544148481

This election cycle has gotten pretty funny. VICE is running articles about being unable to commit voter fraud.

Blogger Jack Amok November 02, 2018 12:18 AM  

This election cycle has gotten pretty funny. VICE is running articles about being unable to commit voter fraud.

The real problem the guy had is that he was committing tax fraud by not registering his car where he lived and drove. I'd be sympathetic to him if I wasn't convinced he's highly in favor of other people paying car taxes.

Blogger Jack Amok November 02, 2018 12:23 AM  

In a slightly surprising turn of events, we finally know how O'Rouke was raising so much for his Senate campaign. It was actually a money laundering system to fund the Caravan.

https://twitter.com/JamesOKeefeIII/status/1058184496762241025


Good grief, his campaign is run by a bunch of 25 year old girls.

Blogger FP November 02, 2018 12:32 AM  

There is so much of a blue wave coming nationwide that in Oregon, barak obama is robo calling people telling them to vote for the incumbent dem governor. Who were told is up by 5 points over the repub candidate in the latest poll.

Blogger Looking Glass November 02, 2018 12:46 AM  

FP wrote:There is so much of a blue wave coming nationwide that in Oregon, barak obama is robo calling people telling them to vote for the incumbent dem governor. Who were told is up by 5 points over the repub candidate in the latest poll.



The OR Dem might still win, but that's a horrible sign if they're having to bring out Obama in OR, of all places. Though we can cue up the O Fortuna if both HRC & Obama are making robocalls in parts of CA without competitive House seats.

Blogger Garuna November 02, 2018 12:56 AM  

The "Blue Wave" is already a debunked hoax.

Dems are on track to be crushed in the Senate, with the GOP winning a minimum 54 seat majority. And in the House, Dems are going to win about 15-30 seats, which is an AVERAGE amount. They will either narrowly take the House or narrowly lose it.

Though I can see journalists falsely claiming vindication on "blue wave" predictions if Dems do narrowly take the House, even if they get battered in the Senate.

Blogger Looking Glass November 02, 2018 1:13 AM  

@73 Garuna

I think it's 7-12 Net flip, which won't be enough for the change hands. A total Blue Collapse scenario is still on the table as well. News today is WV Sen looks like it'll flip. I'm really surprised Manchin is likely to lose.

The undercards of this election are Dean Heller just refusing to lose even if he never polls great and Don Jr's personal vendetta against a few sitting Senators. Don Jr almost truly seems to hate Sen. Tester.

Blogger James Dixon November 02, 2018 4:25 AM  

> I'm really surprised Manchin is likely to lose.

That's not an outcome I'd be willing to bet on. Morrisey is a carpetbagger lobbyist who only moved to WV to run for office. His wife still lives in Virginia. The campaigning has been fierce and is far closer than Manchin would like, but I think he'll pull it out. I won't be voting for either, as there's a native West Virginian running as a Libertarian who's better than either one of them.

Blogger Rory November 02, 2018 5:22 AM  

Although as I learned after Trump's election: the record doesn't matter. Someone posts a joke about how wrong the polls were for 2016. I saw this written in response:

"What's the joke? That the 2016 presidential election poll forecasts did not give the majority of their probability mass to the correct result (but still had it well within their margin of error)? This should be expected to be a relatively common outcome and I think that saying that the polls were "wrong" in this case (as many have done) is not a good framing."

The Secret King wins again!

See, we told you: there was a margin of error. Our stats are totally sound. There isn't a problem here. This is a rigorous science. If the answer isn't like we'd predicted, well, we allowed for this chance of being wrong. We gave you a 50% chance of it being 99% likely that Hillary would win... which, if she had won, we'd take as validation that we can reliably predict the future.

Blogger James Dixon November 02, 2018 8:20 AM  

> (but still had it well within their margin of error)?

Part of the problem with polling is that we no longer even know what the margin of error actually is. There are too many uncontrolled variables. Thus, we're back at the stage where an educated guess is as good as all the "scientific" polling out there.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 02, 2018 8:59 AM  

Democrats have poured money into a few races that were supposed to be safe recently. The response from a Democrat: Well, they have unlimited money because Soros, so why not spend it? Sure, buddy. They really have no idea.

Though I can see journalists falsely claiming vindication on "blue wave" predictions if Dems do narrowly take the House

Media will claim a D victory over Trump even if the D's only pick up a single seat in the House and lose several in the Senate. What's the alternative? Admit that Americans just handed Trump a mandate, that we just signed off on Kavanaugh and shooting Mexicans who throw rocks? They will spotlight any R-leaning seats that were lost, especially any Republicans who were strong Trump supporters, and claim the picture is much more nuanced than the numbers show.

And we will laugh and call them the losers they are.

Blogger Scire November 02, 2018 12:02 PM  

Predicit is still At $0.35 to the dollar on the republicans keeping the house.

Blogger Cetera November 02, 2018 3:39 PM  

Scire wrote:Predicit is still At $0.35 to the dollar on the republicans keeping the house.

I know. I put in $20 on it a few weeks ago, and doubled down again yesterday.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 02, 2018 5:59 PM  

I'm seeing more and more "voter suppression" nonsense being floated around. The Democrats are signalling that they are absolutely terrified that they won't be able to cast votes in the names of people who have been dead for 20 years, and that their busses full of illegals, going from precinct to precinct with counterfeit electric and water bills are going to be intercepted before they can cast "contingency ballots" at 20 different locations.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 02, 2018 6:01 PM  

@1

"May colleague offered me the following deal:

If the GOP wins the House, he pays me 2X
If the GOP loses the Senate, I pay him 4X

Would you take that bet?"

I would reply that he must not be very confident in the Democrats winning if the payoff for them to win is 2x the payoff for the Republicans winning.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 02, 2018 6:03 PM  

THEN see what odds he offers.

All of the online markets are currently 50% payoff for D taking the House, and 200% payoff for R taking the House.

Tell him you get better odds with less risk going to the online prediction markets.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 02, 2018 6:08 PM  

@4

" I loathe Debbie Stabmenow."

I remember how she ballyhooed about how she was going to hold hearings on H1-B visa fraud and how it was affecting American workers.

The only people called as witnesses were the cronies perpetrating the fraud.

NOT A SINGLE PERSON PUT OUT OF WORK BY H1-B FRAUD, NOR ANY REPRESENTATIVE FOR THEM, WAS EVER CALLED.

That treasonous woman deserves to die, in the most painful way possible.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 02, 2018 6:11 PM  

@15

"It's not completely unbelievable only in the sense that I've never seen the left as unhinged and hysterical as they've been since Trump took office. But I don't think it'll be as bad as they're projecting."

You obviously don't remember the early 70's and Reagan's 2 terms.

They set off almost 2000 bombs between 1970 and 1976 (when Carter was elected).

Blogger Dirk Manly November 02, 2018 6:25 PM  

@33

"But I don’t trust Mueller to not want a scalp in the Stone network and Corsi seems the first one in crosshairs."

Corsi was caught spreading demoralizing, gross misrepresentations of Q's postings.

Mueller will never pursue Corsi. Corsi is controlled opposition. Look at Corsi's Obama book... "I went to Kenya...and, they chased me out with guns!" Sure, Jerome, sure they did.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 02, 2018 6:43 PM  

@46

"It looks like closer to 2002, which was good for President Bush."

And the ONLY reason the Republican base voted for Bush was because they utterly despise both Algore and the 2004 Kerry/*uckwads duo.
But by Nov 2006, they couldn't hold their nose any more, after Bush, guided by that ratfink, Rove, pushed through one socialist boondoggle monstrosity after another.

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