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Monday, November 05, 2018

The silent Red Wave

Rasmussen Reports is noticing a pattern concerning how Republican voters don't tend to show their hand:
Just as in 2016, Democrats are more outspoken about how they’re going to vote in the upcoming elections than Republicans and unaffiliated voters are.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 60% of Likely Democratic Voters say they are more likely to let others know how they intend to vote this year compared to previous congressional elections. This compares to 49% of Republicans and 40% of voters not affiliated with either major political party.

In August 2016, 52% of Democrats were more likely to let others know how they intended to vote in the upcoming presidential election, compared to 46% of Republicans and 34% of unaffiliated voters. Some analysts before and after Donald Trump's upset victory suggested that most pollsters missed his hidden support among voters fearful of criticism who were unwilling to say where they stood.

Similarly when asked now about family, friends and co-workers, 60% of Democrats say they are also more likely to tell others how they intend to vote, but only 46% of Republicans and 45% of unaffiliated voters agree.
Of course Democrats are talk more. They can't distinguish the narrative from reality. They are magical thinkers who believe that casting a narrative spell creates the reality. In any event, it's interesting to see how the pollsters are in quiet retreat from their previous narrative now that the actual voting is imminent.

NBC News reported that more people showed up to early voting, outpacing the 2014 midterms by leaps and bounds with a whopping 24,024,621 million ballots having already been counted. For comparison, 2014 only had 12,938,596 counted by this time, putting 2018 at nearly double.

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104 Comments:

Blogger Mr.MantraMan November 05, 2018 8:11 AM  

The latest Josh Hawley ad in MO is him advocating for "Equal Treatment", stunning if you think about a GOP hack with a legitimate claim on the word "equal." And the D party outside of a few red state bullshitters is the party of vengeance, how ironic its as if 2016 was their Treaty of Versailles.

Blogger Sillon Bono November 05, 2018 8:18 AM  

OMG it is as if saying you disagree with the leftards causes one real problems, hence it is more beneficial just to be discreet about what you think.

Why won't republicans play by the rules of democracy so we can round them up...

Who could have foreseen such a thing!? This is all you band of deplorables fault.

This is going to be epic.

Blogger David Ray Milton November 05, 2018 8:19 AM  

Oh happy day!

While we fortunately just fired our biggest gamma SJW from work, I unfortunately now will not be able to see his meltdown on Wednesday morning. I’ve been nodding and smiling during his effimnate rants for the past two years looking forward to this day.

Blogger OGRE November 05, 2018 8:23 AM  

Just saw a parody commercial that SNL ran this past weekend of a Democratic "get out the vote" ad. It depicts dem voters being outwardly confident of the blue wave, yet they display obvious signs of concern. If SNL is self-aware enough to do that the weekend before election day, then its a strong sign that even the Dems haven't bought their own narrative.

They say don't trust the polls. But I'm choosing to.

https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2018/11/04/snl-roasts-dems-really-nervous-about-the-midterms/

Blogger Mr.MantraMan November 05, 2018 8:29 AM  

Dark Herald has up an unComedy Central spoof on celebrities in politics.

Blogger ZhukovG November 05, 2018 8:32 AM  

I believe polling, is generally, only accurate in 'high trust' societies.

As trust diminishes, the incentive to NOT be the first to quit applauding increases.

Blogger ZhukovG November 05, 2018 8:33 AM  

I also note that the narrative has drifted to the Democrats only gaining a 'slight' majority in The House.

Blogger Ledford Ledford November 05, 2018 8:34 AM  

What will dominate the "narrative" after the election?
Place your bets:
- Russian meddling: +250 (played out)
- Voter suppression: -250 (a standby, always trotted out)
- "Chilling effect" of Trump's rhetoric scaring pocs from polls (I haven't heard that one yet, but I'll throw it in) +500 (longshot)
- "Fear-mongering" hijacking the brains of white Christians -300 (laughing alien killer ad, a likely winner)
- Gerrymandering +100 (a standby, but too technical to dominate the news)

Blogger James Dixon November 05, 2018 8:45 AM  

I voted yesterday. Not a single D checkmark on the ballot.

> What will dominate the "narrative" after the election?

They'll try all the usual plays from the playbook and go with whatever works best.
They may also add a new one, accusing the R's of voter fraud. Remember, SJW's always project.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 05, 2018 8:45 AM  

Nate Silver now says both outcomes are "extremely possible." And hilarity ensued.

I actually get what he's saying: there's a lot of uncertainty about the polling, so it wouldn't be a surprise either way. But he's built a very nice career on one *prediction*, so people expect him to predict elections. And the odds on his web site look like predictions, even though he would say they aren't, so it's too late to act like a disconnected observer of the math. Democrats have put so much faith in his earlier happy statements about this election at this point that they won't even listen to anything contrary he's saying now. He'd better not go out in public for a while after this.

I saw a claim last night that a bunch of pollsters decided to shift "new voters" from the older demographics to the youth one for this election. That would explain why they keep talking about a massive youth vote, even though it's not showing up in registrations and early voting, unless you assume at least half the youth registered as Republicans.

Blogger emx1 November 05, 2018 8:47 AM  

I am very confident that, post Red Wave, there will be a flurry of op-eds saying that secret balloting is problematic, since it enables white males to indulge in their worst impulses with no consequences.

Blogger Harry Spitz November 05, 2018 8:47 AM  

Much as I am hoping for a red tidal wave, high turnout usually doesn't favor 'Pubbies.
I can only hope that Democrats own logorrhea and the influence of President Trump has changed this.

Blogger David Ray Milton November 05, 2018 8:48 AM  

I’ll take the underdog “chilling effect.” At +500, that is a viable underdog! While MSM has yet to link rhetoric to poll turnout, they’ve been on an anti-harsh-rhetoric push for the past month. If they lose it will be, “Can we even call this a democracy anymore with a dictator attacking the media and scaring the people into not voting for their party?!?!?!?”

Blogger Looking Glass November 05, 2018 8:48 AM  

@8 Ledford Ledford

Fear-mongering. That's the narrative they've been laying the groundwork for the most. It also works as an attack on the positive reasons to vote for Trump. (Like, you know, the economy, enforcing the law, defending the country. Basic things.)

As for the election, the thing to watch out for, which they're attempting to hide right now, is the collapse in 40 & Under turnout. It would appear the younger demographic turnout is going to be similar to 2014, while the normal turnout will be slightly above average for a midterm. That's a good place to shed 3-5% off most of the Democrat's voting totals.

But, it's still about power, so it's going to be a slugfest across the country.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 05, 2018 8:51 AM  

Just saw a parody commercial that SNL

Something on SNL called a Pete Davidson did a bit mocking a US veteran who lost his eye in the war. That should really pull those Independents they keep talking about who don't like ugly rhetoric.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 05, 2018 8:59 AM  

high turnout usually doesn't favor 'Pubbies

It has so far this year in the early voting. Florida Republicans have stayed consistently 50K ahead of 2016's gap, and that's with the Panhandle being a day behind and having many polling stations closed from the hurricane. Pollsters have had to dust off the theory from 2016 that a quarter or more of FL Republicans were crossing over, because if they aren't, the blue wave is already toast.

Yesterday NBC (I think) showed a poll saying Republican enthusiasm is a few points above Democrats. That's something they haven't reported on much since Kavanaugh, when the Dems lost their edge there, but now it's time to start trickling those things out so they can claim they weren't blindsided. Also time to shift entirely to a fear-based narrative to try to scare Democrats to the polls tomorrow.

What if that missing 5% or so of early-voting Democrats were fake ones that aren't coming this time?

Blogger Johnny November 05, 2018 9:04 AM  

The internal polling that the political parties do is better than what gets released to the general public. Going by how they are acting, I don't think either party feels secure that it has a win locked up.

Blogger pyrrhus November 05, 2018 9:05 AM  

This also occurs in exit polling...I remember MIke Royko explaining to the incredulous Chicago media that people lied to the exit pollers in the highly charged Mayoral election of 1983 because "they're scared."

Blogger jaericho November 05, 2018 9:06 AM  

A pollster came to my door and I ended up telling him, "I know who I'm voting for, and I'm not telling anyone." I wonder if I should have been more uncountable saying, "I don't do politics." None of the conservatives I know younger than a boomer would tell a pollster who they're voting for.

That and the Trump rallies are still going strong and I'm not worried about tomorrow.

Blogger pyrrhus November 05, 2018 9:07 AM  

@17 "The internal polling that the political parties do is better than what gets released to the general public. Going by how they are acting, I don't think either party feels secure that it has a win locked up."

Good point. Hence Hillary canceling her planned victory celebrations the day before the election in 2016.

Blogger The Deplorable Podunk Ken Ramsey November 05, 2018 9:11 AM  

It's a wise policy to refuse talking to pollsters if you are of the right. No need exists to lie, simply decline politely to offer any bit of information. It's akin to being arrested, "Anything you say can and will be used against you in a court of law." Why give them any information at all?


The greatest challenge for any pollster is modeling the electorate and making sure they have the correct model. Give them nothing. Radio silence from the right insures their training and testing examples are incomplete. If they follow their models even with the strictest of mathematical acumen and integrity, they cannot overcome that glaring flaw in their examples. And they will conclude wrongly.


They are the enemy. It's best when they conclude wrongly.

Blogger Looking Glass November 05, 2018 9:19 AM  

Johnny wrote:The internal polling that the political parties do is better than what gets released to the general public. Going by how they are acting, I don't think either party feels secure that it has a win locked up.

Weather. A good chunk of the country is going to have some pretty nasty weather on Tuesday. That can turn a couple of House Seats. Or, in the case of the Upper Midwest, there's 4 separate Senate Elections. If 1-2% that's the lightly attached Leftwing voters don't show up, we could get some unexpected flips.

It's going to be a long night, just because the House isn't decided until the CA results start coming in, but it could be quite hilarious even before we get there. Apparently there's going to be a larger Thunderstorm over NJ on Tuesday. Seems fitting.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan November 05, 2018 9:24 AM  

The Ds had according to Jack P a surge in early votes for Florida to take the lead with that category of voting so assume we will be back to hearing about blue wave.

Blogger The Deuce November 05, 2018 9:41 AM  

Can confirm. I would never respond to a media poll if asked how I'm going to vote, especially after 2016, for a number of reasons.

First of all, it was great fun watching SJWs have an absolute meltdown in 2016 as the future they thought was certain collapsed before their very eyes in one night, and I want to relive that experience again and again. Simply beating them isn't nearly as much fun as building up their hopes and dreams, only to pull away the football at the last second and watch them plunge into alienation and despair as everything they believed in is painfully torn from them. And really, it's for their own good. It's one of those rare opportunities for reality to force its way through an SJW's false narrative shell and into their brain.

Second, I'm well aware that contrary to the media's beliefs, being told that we're going to lose energizes the right instead of demoralizing us into staying home.

Third, a big strength that the right has is that we understand the left much better than they understand us - indeed, better than they understand themselves, since their mindless devotion to the narrative prevents them from being able to analyze or understand any "Nazi" badthink or to engage in any self-examination. Keeping them in the dark about what we're going to do presses that advantage further.

That's actually why I don't partake in early voting as well. I want it all to be a surprise to them.

Blogger James Bryant November 05, 2018 9:41 AM  

It's hard to cheat enough to win if you don't know your enemies.

Blogger Looking Glass November 05, 2018 9:45 AM  

Mr.MantraMan wrote:The Ds had according to Jack P a surge in early votes for Florida to take the lead with that category of voting so assume we will be back to hearing about blue wave.

Not a surge. It's part of the D's normal voting approach in FL, but they're also significantly behind compared to 2016, as a relative %.

Blogger James Dixon November 05, 2018 9:52 AM  

I should add that this is thoroughly predictable. Why would anyone in any major metropolitan area admit they were voting Republican. You have to figure there's at least a 25% chance the polling person is an SJW who is taking down the names of those who do so, so you're just inviting violent retribution. It would be the height of stupidity to do so, and Republican voters aren't stupid.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 05, 2018 9:55 AM  

The D's were expected to lead early voting in Florida once they caught up to the absentee ballots, but they're way behind the pace. In 2016 they led early votes by about 100K by voting day. This year they're on pace for a 50K lead.

The "what if Republicans win" and "if Republicans win, what went wrong" articles started yesterday and continue today.

Blogger Jack Amok November 05, 2018 10:10 AM  

OMG it is as if saying you disagree with the leftards causes one real problems, hence it is more beneficial just to be discreet about what you think.

Hence the Dem's increasing virtue signalling. By 2024, they'll assume if you aren't virtue signalling Blue, then you must be Red.

Blogger justthinkin November 05, 2018 10:10 AM  

"Some analysts before and after Donald Trump's upset victory suggested that most pollsters missed his hidden support among voters fearful of criticism who were unwilling to say where they stood." Fear of criticism. Yeah, that's what it was.

Blogger Looking Glass November 05, 2018 10:13 AM  

James Dixon wrote:I should add that this is thoroughly predictable. Why would anyone in any major metropolitan area admit they were voting Republican. You have to figure there's at least a 25% chance the polling person is an SJW who is taking down the names of those who do so, so you're just inviting violent retribution. It would be the height of stupidity to do so, and Republican voters aren't stupid.

This was literally the agreement for why Exit Polling was so bad in 2004. Especially when most of the exit pollsters in the Battleground States were, well, anti-war activists.

Blogger Garuna November 05, 2018 10:14 AM  

Republicans gain RINO-proof majority in the Senate. The House is a toss-up. But if Republicans hold it, the Democrats and the media are finished. Especially the media. "Blue wave" will be their final hoax that fooled anybody.

Blogger Tars Tarkusz November 05, 2018 10:14 AM  

Nate Silver, really should be Nate Bronze, has doubled down and declared an 86% chance the Dems take the House. Anything other than a red tsunami will be treated as a repudiation of Trump, especially his 'I am a nationalist' speech.

I really don't know how any white person can vote Democrat now. They used to speak in code, now they are openly brazenly anti-white.

I was reading a book about Haiti and the genocide there of the French. The Africans were riled up by one group of whites against another group of whites using the same rhetoric we hear today. The Africans slaughtered the whites without regard to which group they belonged. ALL whites were the same to the Africans. When will these people learn their lesson?

Blogger Azimus November 05, 2018 10:20 AM  

Silent Red Wave.... sounds more like a tide than a wave... a crimson tide... roll tide

Blogger Tars Tarkusz November 05, 2018 10:22 AM  

The Deplorable Podunk Ken Ramsey wrote:It's a wise policy to refuse talking to pollsters if you are of the right. No need exists to lie, simply decline politely to offer any bit of information. It's akin to being arrested, "Anything you say can and will be used against you in a court of law."

A better reason is that these pollsters are progressive activists who make money doing their polls. By refusing to talk to them at all, they have to spend more money and if enough Republicans refuse to talk, it may make them unprofitable. This is also why you should never talk to the media! They get to make money making you look bad. Deny them that story and deny them their advertising money.

The pollsters can take their rightful place along side the media as enemies of the American people!

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 05, 2018 10:26 AM  

@35 Azimus, that would be appropriate, since one media outlet has declared Trump to be a Confederate president. Someone even put him on Wikipedia's list of them. They've decided "Republicans are racist" will be their winning final narrative.

Blogger Peaceful Poster November 05, 2018 10:32 AM  

Roll Tide!

Blogger The Deplorable Podunk Ken Ramsey November 05, 2018 10:49 AM  

The Deuce wrote:a big strength that the right has is that we understand the left much better than they understand us - indeed, better than they understand themselves, since their mindless devotion to the narrative prevents them from being able to analyze or understand any "Nazi" badthink or to engage in any self-examination.

Even better, their urge to slander and compartmentalize cheats them in no small way when it comes to understanding us. When so many of them ponder us they always immediately leap to conclude we are motivated by racism, sexism, pick-your-ism. And there their thinking stops. For the legions of gammas among them this is a moral high-ground from whence to preen as secret kings convinced of their rightness and our wrongness.

So there their thinking stops. They're dead wrong of course. People on the right detest it because who like being called nasty things, but really there's a silver lining to it. They've got us wrong, and they are convinced in their wrongness.

Again, it's not so bad if your enemy insists on concluding wrongly. Sun Tzu would love to have an enemy like that.

Blogger Jill Domschot November 05, 2018 10:51 AM  

When I was a young voter, I liked to tell the Oregon pollsters exactly how I was voting because I thought it was fun to burst their bubble. Now I won't tell pollsters anything. I don't know why not, except that it's none of their business.

Blogger Jill Domschot November 05, 2018 10:53 AM  

"They get to make money making you look bad." Good point.

Blogger Stilicho November 05, 2018 10:53 AM  

Roll Tide!

Blogger kurt9 November 05, 2018 10:54 AM  

Of course Democrats are talk more.

Liberals are very childlike in their behavior. The tendency to talk and emote a lot is one of those childlike traits.

Blogger Stilicho November 05, 2018 10:55 AM  

Meme suggestion: 2016 election map by county (blue/red) captioned "Roll Tide!"

Blogger CM November 05, 2018 10:58 AM  

538 is going in the opposite direction...

Blogger Stilicho November 05, 2018 11:01 AM  

Between Texas Rangers hats (red w/ white "T") and red, "Roll Tide" t-shirts, the opportunity to subtly troll leftists is too good to miss.

Blogger pyrrhus November 05, 2018 11:02 AM  

O/T Soy Boy now trailing Marine Le Pen in the polls...Maybe there's hope for La Belle France

Blogger pyrrhus November 05, 2018 11:02 AM  

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-05/marine-le-pens-party-edges-ahead-macrons-first-time-election-poll-shows

Blogger pyrrhus November 05, 2018 11:05 AM  

"Of course Democrats are talk more.

Liberals are very childlike in their behavior. The tendency to talk and emote a lot is one of those childlike traits."

Actually, it's a female trait..I can state from great experience in the classroom that young girls talk at least five times as much as boys...When I have discussed this with their mothers, I'm told that that's a low estimate...

Blogger Silly but True November 05, 2018 11:20 AM  

Nate Silver:
“Calm down. Trump supported candidates can’t win...”
https://www.businessinsider.com/nate-silver-donald-trump-wont-win-2015-9

“The ceiling of Trump-supported candidates is 15%, 20% tops. There’s no way any can win their primaries, much less best Hillary-supported candidates in a general election.”

Blogger James Dixon November 05, 2018 11:31 AM  

Via Instapundit: https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2018/11/tuesday_will_tell_blue_wave_or_red_tsunami.html

Blogger Curlytop November 05, 2018 11:32 AM  

The latest talkingpoint/narrative push that supports the data that Repubs have been outperforming in early voting is the sudden pop up accounts on Twitter this weekend detailing in proper Media Matter script talk: "I was a lifelong Conservative...vet, Christian, blah blah but voted straight D ticket." #GOPGoBlue, etc.

So that's their spin now: a massive wave of Repubs suddenly voting Blue bc of "babies in cages," etc.

This demo is beyond unstable at this point. Tomorrow is going to make 2016 look like the calm before the storm.

Blogger James Dixon November 05, 2018 11:35 AM  

Also via Instapundit: https://pjmedia.com/election/nate-silver-admits-he-doesnt-know-whats-going-to-happen-with-mid-terms/

Blogger Unknown November 05, 2018 11:43 AM  

Being in university I’ve noticed a lot of things. I have snapchat since many of my peers do and they have a left leaning political series called good luck America and they’re already pushing a narrative of Putin interfering again in our elections. I think it’s just so they can fall back on the Russian meddling narrative when the red wave hits.

Blogger James Dixon November 05, 2018 11:46 AM  

> Hence the Dem's increasing virtue signalling. By 2024, they'll assume if you aren't virtue signalling Blue, then you must be Red.

And once they assume you're red, there goes your job and any reason or ability to remain in a blue area. Thus the blues get bluer and the reds get redder. And eventually separation or war.

Blogger Brick Hardslab November 05, 2018 11:46 AM  

Democrats need the Republican votes counted first though so they know how much they need to fudge the numbers. No this isn't a joke.

Blogger CarpeOro November 05, 2018 11:50 AM  

@35
Reminds me of the Steely Dan song "Deacon Blues"

They've got name for the winners in the world
I want a name when I lose
They call Alabama the Crimson Tide
Just call me Deacon Blues

Blogger Michael November 05, 2018 11:52 AM  

I agree with you. When pollsters call me, I hang up. The reason, they do not have a record of What I think. That information, whom you voted for in a poll, could be very dangerous in the future.

Blogger Angantyr November 05, 2018 11:52 AM  

JOACHIM: (The Pollsters) are requesting communications, sir.
KHAN: Let them eat static!
JOACHIM (OC): They're still running with (incorrect polling data).
KHAN: Of course. We're one big happy (SJW-Fest)! Ah, (Soros), my old friend, do you know the Klingon proverb that tells us 'Revenge is a dish that is best served cold?'

Blogger Curlytop November 05, 2018 11:53 AM  

@55
Uh huh, that's why my family and others I know never "early vote." My mom grew up in Cook County, Illinois and was there in the 1960 when Dems coined the phrase, "vote early and vote often." We know how this works.

Blogger Looking Glass November 05, 2018 11:57 AM  

Brick Hardslab wrote:Democrats need the Republican votes counted first though so they know how much they need to fudge the numbers. No this isn't a joke.

There are methods in place to make sure they turn in their votes on time so they can't. Best in 2016 was PA. They actually held back on turning in Hillary's votes in a major county so they couldn't find the extra votes needed to force a recount.

Blogger James Dixon November 05, 2018 12:13 PM  

> Reminds me of the Steely Dan song "Deacon Blues"

I'm hoping that becomes a meme come Tuesday night. :)

The latest Rasmussen generic ballot poll has the R's with a 1% lead: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot_nov05

It's meaningless in determining individual races, but that's the poll the Dem hopes were built on.

Blogger The Lab Manager November 05, 2018 12:13 PM  

Other than annoying the hell out of the left, DJ also attracts large crowds of people to his rallies. I would guess that has to grate a hell of a lot on cuckservatives like the Bush criminals and other conservatards.

I voted mostly Republican for all the important offices in my state. I've noted as a long time South Texan that there are a number of Hispanics who are either running as Republicans or vote Republican. I don't care for the Republican party as a whole; if not for Trump they would happily sell us all down river for their favorite ((tribe)) and the corpratocracy.

Blogger VFM #7634 November 05, 2018 12:29 PM  

"Of course Democrats are talk more. They can't distinguish the narrative from reality."

Not to mention how Republicans in many lines of work have to worry about being fired by some Democrat higher-up if they're too loose with their opinions.

Blogger Garuna November 05, 2018 12:35 PM  

Meanwhile the BASED black vote project is going about how you'd expect.

Black girl pretends to be a Trump supporter and cons conservatives out of $150,000. When will whites on both the left and right stop using black people as political pets? Their support should carry no more weight than anyone else's.

https://twitter.com/rooshv/status/1059477976197292032

Blogger JAG November 05, 2018 1:03 PM  

The left has now started banning political ads. First facebook, and now NPC banned a Trump ad explaining the invasion coming our way.

They are going all in, they are burning every bridge. They are risking government action against them because they are desperate. I've never seen them this desperate. They know.

Blogger Major Styles November 05, 2018 1:03 PM  

When I hear the words "Nate Silver," I automatically think of a mohel sucking the blood out of an infant boy's penis while the audience mumches on whitefish salad and talks about the artistic genius of Robert Zimmerman.

Blogger Looking Glass November 05, 2018 1:10 PM  

JAG wrote:The left has now started banning political ads. First facebook, and now NPC banned a Trump ad explaining the invasion coming our way.

They are going all in, they are burning every bridge. They are risking government action against them because they are desperate. I've never seen them this desperate. They know.


If they can flip the House for an election cycle, it'll hold off the Sword of Damocles. Especially since there is going to be an attempt to break people via "investigations".

Blogger Brick Hardslab November 05, 2018 1:11 PM  

My state has a Soros selected secretary of state. Before that Republicans won their share now nothing. Even if it takes seven recounts the demswill keep finding votes in a police car trunk or felons. We are horrible at corruption but that's the path chosen for us so every few years we humiliate ourselves with utterly ridiculous shenanigans. Cook County is good at corruption, you never see them making the same obvious mistakes

Blogger JAG November 05, 2018 1:15 PM  

Brick Hardslab wrote:My state has a Soros selected secretary of state. Before that Republicans won their share now nothing. Even if it takes seven recounts the demswill keep finding votes in a police car trunk or felons. We are horrible at corruption but that's the path chosen for us so every few years we humiliate ourselves with utterly ridiculous shenanigans. Cook County is good at corruption, you never see them making the same obvious mistakes

The Washington Generals are no longer in charge. The trunks full of day late ballots mysteriously showing up with just enough Dem votes to change the election outcome isn't going to fly with Trump in charge. They are going to try, but it isn't going to work this time.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 05, 2018 1:15 PM  

@3

"Oh happy day!

While we fortunately just fired our biggest gamma SJW from work, I unfortunately now will not be able to see his meltdown on Wednesday morning. I’ve been nodding and smiling during his effimnate rants for the past two years looking forward to this day."

Call him on the phone Wednesday morning.

Of course, use the cheapest "burner" phone you can find.

Blogger Doktor Jeep November 05, 2018 1:17 PM  

My biggest fear is corruption: vote fraud and election fraud. We have to be at least 25 percent OVER what's needed just to make it by 5 percent.

When will Sessions wake up?

Blogger Dirk Manly November 05, 2018 1:29 PM  

@11

"I am very confident that, post Red Wave, there will be a flurry of op-eds saying that secret balloting is problematic, since it enables white males to indulge in their worst impulses with no consequences."

When we hang them from lamp posts, we can attach signs to them with their op-eds under their most recent favorite saying as the headline:







"Free Speech Has Consequences"

Blogger Dirk Manly November 05, 2018 1:30 PM  

@12

"Much as I am hoping for a red tidal wave, high turnout usually doesn't favor 'Pubbies.
I can only hope that Democrats own logorrhea and the influence of President Trump has changed this."

The high turnout isn't on the D side.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 05, 2018 1:45 PM  

@15

"Something on SNL called a Pete Davidson"

Who is surely NOT in a position to be making fun of other people's appearance -- WHAT is wrong with his lips? Was he victimized by a rogue lip injectionist?

Blogger Francis Parker Yockey November 05, 2018 1:52 PM  

@24
...a big strength that the right has is that we understand the left much better than they understand us - indeed, better than they understand themselves, since their mindless devotion to the narrative prevents them from being able to analyze or understand any "Nazi" badthink or to engage in any self-examination.

True. And the narrative always includes a bogeyman -- a caricature of the opposition, their positions, and the reasons for them (almost always some form of "hate" + oppressor/victim narrative). Understanding the other side on its own terms (rather than sticking to pre-approved caricatures) is frowned upon by many leftists. Perhaps it's taken as a warning sign of potential ideological deviation? At any rate, refusal/ inability to acknowledge a different perspective, or other potentially valid narratives, seems to be perceived as a sign of virtue.

In addition to the importance of narrative for social signaling purposes, some of this difference is likely due to:
--failure to comprehend the moral foundations of the conservative worldview (Haidt - "The Righteous Mind")
--the ubiquity of the progressive establishment narrative, which makes it difficult for those on the Right to avoid comprehending at least its basic elements, while leftists have to actively seek out information to adequately understand the other side.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 05, 2018 1:52 PM  

@19

> This also occurs in exit polling...I remember MIke Royko explaining to the incredulous Chicago media that people lied to the exit pollers in the highly charged Mayoral election of 1983 because "they're scared."

I miss Mike Royko. One of the few honest liberals in the midia.

I remember him writing a couple columns about the government persecuting the Daniel Lamp Co.
Their crime? Hiring predominantly people from the local neighborhood (mostly Hispanic) and therefore not recruiting enough blacks. All started because a half-illiterate black woman didn't get hired in as a secretary.


Even Royko said that the quota system that's not called a quota system is in itself criminal.

Blogger Ariadne Umbrella November 05, 2018 1:53 PM  

How do I put this? I have a cell phone that I answer for my family, medical stuff and school stuff. Everything else is a distraction. Having a robot call my number and then some young idiot ask impertinent questions is not how to be my friend.

And, second. Beto ads are incredibly threatening. He has ads on Hulu where he says " We don't know how you vote- but your neighbors can see that you did vote." with checkmarks and cross marks on people's houses. It's horrifying- it's one step short of "and then your neighbor shows up at your house with a gang and asks who you voted for." He's trying to appeal to unhinged leftist activists. They already do things like steal signs, key cars, smash in windows, firebomb the governor's mansion, call you evil to your face, throw stuff on you when you are in public. It sounds very much like a veiled threat.

And, the thing is, he's saying " We are going to change America." He's running for senator, not president, right?

Blogger Dirk Manly November 05, 2018 2:01 PM  

@29

"Hence the Dem's increasing virtue signalling. By 2024, they'll assume if you aren't virtue signalling Blue, then you must be Red."

That's how they worked in the Soviet Union, too.

Blogger bob kuk mando ( a Putin volunteer on the Chink payroll, i have already tried to interfere in the US elections ) November 05, 2018 2:13 PM  

the only possible downside to all of the early Repub voting is the question of whether or not it's cannibalizing Republican election day turnout. because, obviously, there are certain hard limits to both how many voters there are AND how many intend to cast ballots for Republican candidates or Rightist issues.

stated alternatively, we're telling the big city Democrat Party machines how many votes they need to falsify in order to win.

in every other way, early returns indicate greater Repub enthusiasm and participation.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 05, 2018 2:13 PM  

OMG.... Limbaugh is on now....

Limbaugh actually voiced that the Democratic Party's primary goal is to replace the white population (He's doing a story about how most of Trump's rallies have been at places that "don't look like America" because "too many white people.")

Blogger Francis Parker Yockey November 05, 2018 2:14 PM  

Meanwhile the BASED black vote project is going about how you'd expect.

Black girl pretends to be a Trump supporter and cons conservatives out of $150,000. When will whites on both the left and right stop using black people as political pets? Their support should carry no more weight than anyone else's


No more than 3/5 as much, really.

On a more serious note -- it does seem unlikely that the GOPe will be successful in their efforts to prove themselves to be more anti-white than the Dems.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 05, 2018 2:27 PM  

Lol... Nate puts his finger right on it:

"Republicans Need A Systematic Polling Error To Win The House

By Nate Silver"

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-need-a-systematic-polling-error-to-win-the-house/

Blogger Dirk Manly November 05, 2018 2:29 PM  

Looks like Nate is all but admitting that the Republicans are going to win, but "it's not *MY* fault!!!!! my predictions are all wrong."

Blogger Dirk Manly November 05, 2018 2:34 PM  

It's written as "Republicans have only a 1 in 80 chance of keeping the House," but what it REALLY is, is, when the vote tallies are systematically better for the Republicans than the published polls (which ALWAYS happens), he's got his ready-made "explanation" for why he was wrong -- without having to address why he took the polling numbers that are ALWAYS biased towards Democrats, at face value, and not applying the standard historical discount of a 5% swing towards Republicans to everything.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 05, 2018 2:36 PM  

CNN has already tacitly conceded that the Blue Wave ain't gonna happen.

They're now talking about the Republicans having a "gender gap" in 2020.

Why are they already talking about 2020, unless they don't even want to talk about literally tomorrow.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 05, 2018 2:42 PM  

@35

" This is also why you should never talk to the media! They get to make money making you look bad. Deny them that story and deny them their advertising money."

What would happen if conservatives, every time they saw a TV news truck, stopped, and started interviewing the news-crew, including the on-air personality. Ask them about their opinions, and the real thumbscrew -- other than J-school, what other education do you have after graduating from high school?

If need be, tell them you're a student at Specs Howard, and you thought interviewing someone in the media would be a really good twist.

When you're all done, tell them you're a conservative. Fill them with fear that Specs Howard School of Broadcasting classrooms across the country are overflowing with conservatives. Give them sleepless nights.

This would be a low-profile, long-term psy-op.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 05, 2018 3:00 PM  

@46


"O/T Soy Boy now trailing Marine Le Pen in the polls...Maybe there's hope for La Belle France"

Remember, (((David Frum))) says that Marine Le Pen obtains her funds by STEALING IT FROM THE E.U. SOCIALIST HACKS. If she's stupid, and the sociali^H^H^H^H^H^H^Hliberals who run the E.U. are so smart, how is she able to so effortlessly loot them them for hundreds of millions?

Must be another case of an extremely stupid, deviously clever right-winger.

Blogger DonReynolds November 05, 2018 3:02 PM  

I have not been around the media in a while and I won't say what I would do if they were too convenient.

Let's just use a Lincoln quote, when he was asked what he intended to do to Jefferson Davis when captured.

"I hope he goes where I cannot find him."

Blogger Dirk Manly November 05, 2018 3:04 PM  

@51

"This demo is beyond unstable at this point. Tomorrow is going to make 2016 look like the calm before the storm."

Trump (Surrounded by 17 Whitehouse Admirals and Generals with their wives): Everybody remember this day. This is the calm

Reporterette: The calm, Mr. President?

Trump: The Calm Before the Storm

Reporterette: What storm, Mr. President?

Trump: (not tipping his hand in the slightest) You'll see.

Blogger Pierre Truc November 05, 2018 3:14 PM  

Far out at sea, the red tsunami was barely noticeable. It only became visible to people on the shore when it was too late to run from it.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 05, 2018 3:15 PM  

@68

"My state has a Soros selected secretary of state. Before that Republicans won their share now nothing. Even if it takes seven recounts the demswill keep finding votes in a police car trunk or felons. We are horrible at corruption but that's the path chosen for us so every few years we humiliate ourselves with utterly ridiculous shenanigans. Cook County is good at corruption, you never see them making the same obvious mistakes"

As my friend who was a sniper in Vietnam says: This isn't so much a problem that needs to be solved as much as it's a problem that needs to be eliminated.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 05, 2018 3:18 PM  

@69

"The Washington Generals are no longer in charge. The trunks full of day late ballots mysteriously showing up with just enough Dem votes to change the election outcome isn't going to fly with Trump in charge. They are going to try, but it isn't going to work this time."

Since the FEC is now part of Homeland Security, I expect that if they try that nonsense, every district that tries that will be flooded with feds within hours. Federal Marshalls with warrants to grab all of the evidence (they've never been accused of being political, so they're probably safe).

Blogger Dirk Manly November 05, 2018 3:26 PM  

@77
"He's trying to appeal to unhinged leftist activists. They already do things like steal signs, key cars, smash in windows, firebomb the governor's mansion, call you evil to your face, throw stuff on you when you are in public. It sounds very much like a veiled threat.

And, the thing is, he's saying " We are going to change America." He's running for senator, not president, right? "

Doesn't matter.

Beto already didn't have enough support a week ago, and that was BEFORE it was revealed that his campaign is just a money-laundering front for the fake-caravan..... which, now that Beto's illegal funding of it has been revealed, is suddenly evaporating.

If you suspect there could be trouble, get gunned-up now.

If they come, force them to break in, and then shoot them INSIDE THE DOOR OR WINDOW... and make sure there's blood on the floor and/or walls. Texas is a "your home is your castle" doctrine state. Their blood on your floor/walls is a positive defense.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 05, 2018 3:39 PM  

@88

> Let's just use a Lincoln quote, when he was asked what he intended to do to Jefferson Davis when captured.

> "I hope he goes where I cannot find him."


He truly meant that. In the closing days of the war, some high ranking Confederates (not military officers, government officials) were in Union custody. An aid came to Lincoln, asking how they should be prosecuted, etc.

Lincoln's reply was to transport them to a city with a port with international shipping, and release them with enough money for them to buy passage out of the country.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 05, 2018 3:52 PM  

@90

"Far out at sea, the red tsunami was barely noticeable. It only became visible to people on the shore when it was too late to run from it."

Before it arrived, the only sign, subtle as it might be, was a brief recession of the red seawater away from the bluestate shoreline

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother November 05, 2018 5:21 PM  

Dirk, Texas is a stand your ground state. No duty to retreat. Front yard is perfectly acceptable.

Blogger Rhys November 05, 2018 5:29 PM  

I wonder if Democrats will ever pick up on the irony of being rabidly pro-democracy while also being a huge proponent of polls predicting the election result before a single vote is even cast.

Blogger DonReynolds November 05, 2018 7:03 PM  

Stg58/Animal Mother wrote:Dirk, Texas is a stand your ground state. No duty to retreat. Front yard is perfectly acceptable.

I am sure you remember the Texan that saw his neighbor's house being broke into. He called 911 and stayed on the line while the burglars looted the house. The police had yet to arrive when the burglars were apparently leaving and the gentleman put down the phone and engaged all of them with a firearm. There were no charges.

Castle in this case included the neighbor's house. The shooter had been asked by the owner to keep an eye on the place.

Blogger Tars Tarkusz November 05, 2018 8:34 PM  

Stg58/Animal Mother wrote:Dirk, Texas is a stand your ground state. No duty to retreat.
I wish more people understood that the opposite of stand your ground is the duty to run away!
It is absolutely positively absurd that you have a "duty" to retreat. My state recently became a stand your ground state, but before that, you really couldn't defend yourself outside of your home.
The press very strongly insinuates that stand your ground is some license to shoot people based on your suspicions or something.

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother November 05, 2018 10:04 PM  

Tars,

I helped get the castle doctrine and open carry laws passed. Remnants of Jim Crow gone.

Blogger Dangeresque November 06, 2018 9:30 AM  

The NPC will always talk if you press X.

Blogger Tars Tarkusz November 06, 2018 10:30 AM  

Stg58/Animal Mother wrote:Tars,

I helped get the castle doctrine and open carry laws passed. Remnants of Jim Crow gone.


How are they related to Jim Crow?

Blogger Dirk Manly November 06, 2018 11:23 PM  

The Jim Crow laws limited the use, posession, and ownership of firearms by blacks.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash November 07, 2018 2:00 AM  

It's a convenient way to remove the right of self defense from some, but not others.

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