Don't poke the Bear
It appears Israel recently received a rude lesson in why one should always avoid irritating the Russian Bear:
And I tend to suspect these new rules of engagement also have something to do with the recently announced US withdrawal from Syria, as there will no longer an American buffer to defend Israel from a direct Russian response or even a Russian response-by-proxy to Israeli provocations.
Needless to say, someone is lying, or at the very least, wrong. And based on the entire written historical record of war, it is usually the party claiming that the other party's capabilities have been entirely destroyed.
Syria will adopt a new rule of engagement with Israel now that Russia has taken a tougher and clearer stance on the conflict between Israel and the “Axis of the Resistance”. Henceforth, Damascus will be responding to any Israeli strike. If it damages a specific military target it will reply with a strike against a similar objective in Israel. Decision makers in Damascus said “Syria will not hesitate to hit an Israeli airport if Damascus airport is targeted and hit by Israel. This will be with the consent of the Russian military based in the Levant”.These claims of new rules of engagement in the Middle East may be false, of course. They may be nothing more than the usual public posturing. But we will soon be able to tell if they are in effect or not, because if Israel suddenly, and uncharacteristically, stops launching missile attacks into Syrian territory, that will be a strong indication that the reports of the new rules were genuine.
“Russia has informed Israel that there are Russian officers present at every Syrian or Iranian military base and that any strike against Syrian or Iranian objectives would hit Russian forces as well. Putin will not allow his soldiers and officers to be struck down by Israel’s direct or indirect bombing”.
Moreover, Russia has given Syria the green light – said the source- to strike Israel at any time if and when Tel Aviv’s planes launch raids against Syrian military targets or launch long-range missiles without flying over Syria (for fear of the S-300 and to avoid seeing its jets downed over Syria or Lebanon).
The source confirmed that Syria – contrary to what Israel claims – now has the most accurate missiles, which can hit any target inside Israel. The Syrian armed forces have received unrevealed long and medium-range missiles from Iran. These operate on the GLONASS system – the abbreviation for Globalnaya Navigazionnaya Sputnikovaya Sistema, the Russian version of the GPS. Thus, the delivery of Iran and the manufacture of missiles inside Syria (and Lebanon) is now complete. Israel, however, claims it has destroyed Syria’s missile capability, including that of the missiles delivered by Iran. According to the source, Damascus controls a very large number of precision missiles, notwithstanding those destroyed by Israel. “In Iran, the cheapest and most accessible items are the SABZI and the missiles”, said the source.
The new Syrian rule of engagement – according to the source – is now as follows: an airport will be hit if Israel hits an airport, and any attack on a barracks or command and control centre will result in an attack on similar target in Israel. It appears that the decision has been taken at the highest level and a clear “bank of objectives” has now been set in place.
And I tend to suspect these new rules of engagement also have something to do with the recently announced US withdrawal from Syria, as there will no longer an American buffer to defend Israel from a direct Russian response or even a Russian response-by-proxy to Israeli provocations.
Needless to say, someone is lying, or at the very least, wrong. And based on the entire written historical record of war, it is usually the party claiming that the other party's capabilities have been entirely destroyed.
Labels: war
64 Comments:
How is it that the USA does so poorly on world geopolitics? Have we learned nothing in the past 200 years? Why must we have powerful enemies? Why couldn't we be friends with Russia? Or China? Is Europe really that good? They seem rather messed up these days. I never hear of Russian women or Chinese women getting raped over and over. Then just to have the law enforcement defend the rapists, kind of like out of fear. Big sign of a weak country.
Israel and the USA need to be very careful about this.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.rt.com/news/446914-russia-welcome-us-withdrawal-syria/amp/
We are pulling out now that it no longer benifits Israel. If that doesn't show (((who))) is actually starting the wars I don't know what does.
Sounds like fake news designed to undermine Trump's withdrawal from Syria. Wouldn't Putin wait until American troops actually left the country before announcing something like this?
The USA has done poorly in geopolitics because the people running our policy have been working for the other team.
Not saying that site isn't like 100% pro Russia, but this is the title of another article on the site:
"The Ukraine Is a Fake and Homosexual Country: Exhibit A"
Haahahahahahaha...if only westerners still had balls to say something like that.
Syria has been going close to the Golan Heights. Cruz and Cotton have a resolution saying it is now annexed to Israel. That might ignite things.
And on the Ukranian front:
‘Putin’s Ribbentrop’ Emphasizes Moscow Still Wants All of Ukraine, Portnikov Says
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2018/12/putins-ribbentrop-emphasizes-moscow.html
There's going to be enough collective kvetching and oy vey-ing in The Holy Land to consider as a possible fuel source for launching more rockets.
Thank God the USA is (supposedly) leaving that area. Let the Muslims and Jews kill each other, no more American blood spilled in some God-forsaken desert.
We The People are sick of being Israel's attack dog.
Assad and Russia were the only ones making effort to protect and support the minority Christian populations in Syria. The US was supporting some groups who would exterminate them if possible.
We should have partnered with Russia from the beginning with a joint effort against ISIS and other jihadi hordes and to keep a tight leash on Assad together.
But no, the chicken hawk neocons had to do their usually cucky, interventionist, fubared, chest pounding, Merka!! thing.
Trump, bring all the troops home beyond our borders and put them to work on the wall !!
"The Ukraine Is a Fake and Homosexual Country: Exhibit A"
Heh. That sounds like someone took "fake and gay" from a chan headline and translated it to another language and back.
I'm skeptical because of the source site and because of the tendency of nations like Syria, Iraq, and Russia to bluff about their capabilities and intentions.
But I also would not be surprised if this turns out to be substantially true. Putin does not strike me as someone who is going to let Israel push him or his allies around. If the U.S. truly is done in Syria then there is nothing restraining the bear from responding to being poked.
Serves Israel right. I'm sick and tired of their foreign adventures and (((our))) foreign adventures. Our own country is literally falling apart before our eyes. We can't protect our borders, balance our budgets, or conserve our women's restrooms. We have no business yelling "fire!" in a nation on the other side of the globe while our home literally burns around us.
OT but We the People are funding the wall. $4,684,805 in three days:
https://www.gofundme.com/TheTrumpWall
I'm skeptical because of the source site and because of the tendency of nations like Syria, Iraq, and Russia to bluff about their capabilities and intentions.
As opposed to those notorious tellers of the truth in the U.S. government? Are you serious?
"We bringing you DEMOCRACY, bitches! Don't you want FREEDOM?"
We have no business yelling "fire!" in a nation on the other side of the globe while our home literally burns around us.
See, now this, I agree with.
As the Saker has pointed out before, Syrians are now involved in operating these systems, and they have good reason to hate the Israelis...Israel will not risk it.
"I'm skeptical because of the source site and because of the tendency of nations like Syria, Iraq, and Russia to bluff about their capabilities and intentions. "
When the Israelis stupidly shot down the Russian reconnaissance plane, Putin's hand was forced and he shipped in the advanced S-300s, which stopped Israel's, and America's bombing operations in their tracks...Putin does not like war, but he is very angry that they betrayed his deal with Bibi, and made him look like a fool for trusting Israel...I think Putin will be forced to allow retaliation if Russians are killed again.
The Russian soldier has no more desire to die for Syria, than an American one. Jews are more than happy to let other people die in their wars. Putin is virtue signaling. There may be some engagements to prove they really mean it this time,but Russia, and their supply lines are WAAAAAYY over there, and Israel is actually there.
Russia should be a natural ally for the US. We have common enemies, common problems, and common people. Mostly white. The US government is trying hard to erase the white part.
One Deplorable DT wrote:Putin does not strike me as someone who is going to let Israel push him or his allies around. If the U.S. truly is done in Syria then there is nothing restraining the bear from responding to being poked.
Given the massive influence of Jews on America and on Trump, I wouldn't count on it. I hope Israel calls Russia's bluff in some small way and that Russia either directly responds or allows Syria to respond, also in some small way.
Israel thinks it has the most effective military on a per-man basis or whatever BS they are claiming this week. But they would be steamrolled by the Russian Army, even without nuclear weapons.
Both Russia and the US both have the ability to pretty much end human life on the planet inside of an hour. Not being what you once were is not the same thing as not being extremely dangerous.
pyrrhus wrote:Putin does not like war, but he is very angry that they betrayed his deal with Bibi, and made him look like a fool for trusting Israel...
For all of the oy-veying about Putin and how evil he is, he has shown a great deal of restraint. At least from the outside, appears to actually be acting in the benefit of the Russian people.
Compare that to the West where our leaders openly celebrate our demise and endlessly go on about how much we suck and how much better our countries will be if we give them up to the brown hordes.
Matamoros wrote:‘Putin’s Ribbentrop’ Emphasizes Moscow Still Wants All of Ukraine, Portnikov Says
2000% propaganda, starting with calling the Russian Foreign Minister "Putin's Ribbentrop" And Ukie politicians will say literally anything to keep the graft flowing.
1. Richard Holmes December 20, 2018 10:41 AM
How is it that the USA does so poorly on world geopolitics?
Read Asimov's Foundation. It is incredibly insightful... hardly science fiction at all except for the Mule and 2nd Foundation. I think the USA is at the "Bel Riose" stage.
"We bringing you DEMOCRACY, bitches! Don't you want FREEDOM?"
LOL
Poking is better than Mossad's hit list, as the USSR itself learned. I doubt Israel is other than annoyed with the Russians.
@17
"Russia should be a natural ally for the US. We have common enemies, common problems, and common people. Mostly white. The US government is trying hard to erase the white part."
Up until Lenin hijacking Russia, the US and Russia were always close.
Russia's Navy -- founded by none other than John Paul Jones.
During the Civil War, the Russian Pacific Fleet (which couldn't stay in Vladivostok because it would be destroyed by ice), spent every winter in San Fransisco.
They gave us a sweet deal on Alaska, rather than selling it to the most natural purchaser -- Great Britain (Canadian independence was still far off).
I've been saying for years that relations with Russia should be returned to pre-WW1 status.
Thankfully, Trump is dragging Washington in that direction, despite the constant kicking and screaming from both the Pantagon and the Foggy Brains in Foggy Bottom.
Too many in the Pentagon still can't recognize the difference between Russians and (((Soviets))).
@13 - As opposed to those notorious tellers of the truth in the U.S. government? Are you serious?
My statement was never meant to imply that the U.S. government is more truthful. It was simply my (personal and possibly inaccurate) impression of the tendency to bluff on the part of Syria, Iran, and Russia.
I would not bet either way on this one. It may be a bluff. Or it may be a very credible threat. I agree with you that we will soon find out.
I also will not cry for Israel if they are counter attacked for crossing the line now drawn. Nor do I want America to have any part of any of this. We never had any business there. And we still don't.
Well the Arabs of Gaza fired a strategic Kornet anti-armor missile a few weeks ago, and considering who they are it is even rumored they showed some restraint in the targeting as to minimize casualties.
Second the propaganda coming out of Israel is when they target Syrian areas it is always to destroy missiles so let us assume there is some truth here about missiles and the Arabs have figured out that runways and hangars are not stealthy nor mobile.
So maybe the Arabs are taking strategic guidance from professionals, Israel on the other hand has some lickspittle shabbos goys patronizing their every whim , they are in real trouble.
These are good rules of engagement.
Maybe the Israelis can put them in place whenever they get attacked by Palestinians.
Vox, didn't you have a peace plan like that at one point? (A thousand arabs for each Jew killed?) We should institute that here in America - 1000 Mexicans killed for every American killed by an illegal. I think Mexico will pay for the wall then.
@16 - excellent points.
@18 - the point that should be on the mind of every politician in D.C. and in Israel. Since the end of the cold war America has told itself, over and over again, that we are the lone superpower. We are not. Russia has always been the other superpower. Russia never lost the ability to turn Earth into a Fallout game.
Now I would never advocate backing down from Russia were Russia to do something truly aggressive. But the legitimate Syrian government asked for Russia's help against radical Muslims in a civil war. Why the hell are we helping radical Muslims and prolonging a civil war in someone else's country? Why should I support Israel's goals in Syria when Syrian Christians are begging us to stop before Muslims start slicing their heads off? Why were we ever in this fight? And why the hell would I want to risk war with Russia over it?
Bring the troops home. Let Israel learn the hard way if they have to. Let the Syrian people decide what to do with their government. Not ISIS, 'friendly' Muslims, Israel, or America.
Whether "true" or not, that scenario is eminently plausible as a near-term outcome. U.S. withdrawal from Syria is a major concession to Turkey. Maybe that keeps Ankara from going all-in with Russia and Iran.
Stop re-posting previous comments, Dirk Manly.
Brazil's incoming foreign minister has called for a US-Russia-Brazil alliance, in their capacity as the 3 largest Christian nations, in defense of the West and Christendom.
@20 "2000% propaganda,..."
So the fact that Sergey Lavrov has said this is "Ukie" propaganda? Sounds like you may be a Russian troll, especially as you use the Russian perjorative "ukie".
Moscow needs a war to shore up the failing economy and a popularity rating of about 26% as I recall. Russia has eaten through its reserve and is in bankruptcy; which makes it dangerous for other countries.
Recall the old saying,"Russians make great friends, but terrible neighbors."
There is also Lukashenko in Belarus:
When Moscow Talks of ‘Deep Integration’ of Belarus, It Means Annexation, Lukashenka Says
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2018/12/when-moscow-talks-of-deep-integration.html
@28
"Since the end of the cold war America has told itself, over and over again, that we are the lone superpower."
I don't recall any such thing.
I remember a lot of (((commentators))) in absolute hysterics about the fact that they couldn't use the (((Soviet Union))) to interfere with American interests.
Then, suddenly, there was a huge influx of (((Neocons))) into the Republican Party and/or heralded as "Conservative" opinion columnists, and soon, all of the (((outcry))) stopped as suddenly as it had started.
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@32
> Sounds like you may be a Russian troll, especially as you use the Russian perjorative "ukie".
I've seen Ukies say they're Ukies in writing. It can't be that much of a pejorative.
> Moscow needs a war to shore up the failing economy and a popularity rating of about 26% as I recall.
Because spending lots of money on stuff that you're literally going to blow up is always "good for the economy."
Have you heard of the "Broken Window Fallacy"?
"War is good for the national economy" is a particular form of the Broken Window Fallacy.
I STRONGLY suggest that you look it up.
> Russia has eaten through its reserve and is in bankruptcy; which makes it dangerous for other countries.
So, how will making lots of bombs and missiles which are then dropped/fired and blow up, increase the national wealth, rather than further depleting Russia's reserves?
Accuracy counts, so please, be specific.
Or you can withdraw the idiotic assertion.
At best, a foreign war DISTRACTS from a bad economy. It doesn't fix it.
As for undoing Krushchev's blunder -- that's a good thing. The Russkies and the Ukies are no longer the same people. They parted ways... more than 700 years ago. They have distinct cultures, just as the Poles have their own distinct culture.
Just because Russian and Ukrainian are mutually intelligible, so too are Russian and Polish, and NOBODY would say that Russians and Poles are the same nation.
And these three nearly identical languages use different alphabets.
They may be all Slavs, but they most certainly aren't the SAME Slavs.
By the way, how does depleting the treasury and piling up debt to pay for a war "improve" a nation's economy?
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> Recall the old saying,"Russians make great friends, but terrible neighbors."
The same can be said by any denizen of a small country about a much larger adjacent country.
I'm sure the Koreans and various Southeast and South-Central Asians hold the Chinese in similar regard, even if they don't put it into such a compact phrase. And the Mongolians.
This is just human nature.
"They would be steamrolled by the Russian Army, even without nuclear weapons."
Maybe if the battle were in Russia but here in the middle east they would be hard pressed to bet Israel... attacking Israel is a US red line which the US can enforce from anywhere.
If the Deep State does not like this they can introduce via their flunkies in the legislative bodies bills to declare war or something like war and then fund it.
But they all want to hide behind the usual stooge president and deep state operative thugs. Good for Trump
"they would be steamrolled by the Russian Army"
Last I heard, actual Russian regulars are very sparse in the region.
Wasn't there some battle where US forces annihilated some "russian" detachment that turned out to be mercenaries?
It makes sense:
Putin is a rational actor and a competent leader.
Why would he spill his own citizens' blood on the front lines when he can send sellswords to die?
@12 "$6,887,795 of $1.0B goal
Raised by 112,612 people in 3 days"!
And even if we don't get close to the amount he wants -- wanna bet THIS will get attention from the pols?! He's gonna be on Laura Ingraham at 10 EST tonight. Anyone in DC who thinks the populace is NOT watching and chomping at the bit may find this HUGELY surprising! No easy/useful way for the people to reach them with fervor and demands -- but this will do!
Take this to the bank Vox on you weirdo libertarians and alt righters, the Russian military could not hold the Israeli military's jock. Israel would utterly embarrass them, as would the US, which we already have done several times there. The Putin fanboy crap makes you look bad, Mr Italian.
I doubt Syria has any strike capability against Israel, and the US would help them retailate to any strike.
The article isn't saying that Russia will attack Israel, and given Putin's friendship with Netanyahoo! it's highly unlikely there's any real tension between Moscow and Tel Aviv.
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"I doubt Syria has any strike capability against Israel, and the US would help them retailate to any strike."
Bush might have. Trump might not.
Sometimes it's good that his Tweet is worse than his bite.
@24 Russia will always be close to America, ask Sarah Palin - it isn't an Alleutian, so maybe you need to get your bearings straight.
There are also echoes Trump wishes to wind down Afghanistan.
I wonder how this will turn out. A lot of /pol/acks have been champing at the bit for Syria to be given the okay to protect itself... now that Russia has supposedly done just that... I wonder if /sg/ will help give Syrian command Israeli targets just like how we helped them with the ISIS ones.
Things might be getting reaaaaal comfy.
@Adlow
Sounds like fake news designed to undermine Trump's withdrawal from Syria
That's a definite possibility.
"How can we abandon our Greatest Ally™ in the face of these dire threats from Assad the Gasser of Children and Putin the Meddling Hacker? Oy vey!"
Sounds like you may be a Russian troll
As every educated person knows, the primary meaning of the term "Russian troll" (sometimes phrased as "Russian bot") in the current year is to serve as a synonym for the (now rarely seen) phrase "political dissident." What the Left would call a "dog whistle."
This modern usage confuses less sophisticated readers, who make the mistake of interpreting the term literally. For this reason, the AP Stylebook advises against its routine use.
How is it that the USA does so poorly on world geopolitics? Have we learned nothing in the past 200 years?
Apparently not, because you still don't get it. The war isn't meant to be won; it's meant to be permanent.
Dirk Manly wrote:Too many in the Pentagon still can't recognize the difference between Russians and (((Soviets))).
I have my doubts that any Boomer, except Trump, knows the difference between the Russian Federation and the long-dead Soviet Union.
During the 2012 presidential primary season, Republican contender Michelle Bachmann persistently told the crowds attending her rallies that the U.S. must defend itself against "the Soviet Union." The Soviet Union had collapsed twenty years before then, in 1992.
I have noticed that average people tend to lose all brain plasticity by age 40. Whatever programming they have received by then is the programming that persists for the rest of their lives, changing facts be damned.
One of my grandmothers, 30 years ago, used to slip up sometimes and say "President Roosevelt" instead of "President Reagan," for example.
"Them damn Russians is trying to take over the world!!! Fucking KGB, man!!" That's the programming issued from about 1947 to about 1989. As stated, the Soviet Union and Russian communism collapsed in 1992. Boomers, aside from Trump, have not updated their programming. The world is cluttered with NPCs.
Soviet dissidents > Putin dissidents is so similar to crime victims > criminals that it is good rule of thumb to adopt.
Israeli soldiers wear adult diapers because they get so scared they piss themselves. They try their best to get out of serving particularly the Orthodox & the police have to go chase them down, drag them kicking and screaming to the point they often have to get out the tactical baton & work them over. I know plenty of guys who've trained with them & have told me that it wasn't unusual for them to start screaming their heads off & run away like a girl, if they were anywhere near a spot taking fire.
Unless Israel decides to nuke Russia in a mutual destruction, they aren't gonna take them out.
@44
"Take this to the bank Vox on you weirdo libertarians and alt righters, the Russian military could not hold the Israeli military's jock."
As long as the war doesn't last more than 14 days. After 14 days, the IDF is on the ropes, and has to get back to it's shops, and theaters, and offices. Otherwise, the Isreali economy will implode.
Also, As noted several times before, the IDF looks fantastic because they're fighting arabs. Just like the US Army looks absolutely invincible when fighting the arabs.
Hell, even the barely competent Jordanian Army looks good when fighting Arabs. Because the rest of the arab world absolutely does not believe in the principles of scheduled maintenance and preventative maintenance, checks, and services. Just like our nation's ghetto dwellers, they just use stuff until it breaks down, and they HOPE that Allah wan't let it break down on the way to, or in the midst of battle.
"Israel would utterly embarrass them, as would the US, which we already have done several times there."
The Russian Army's infantry riflemen are currently better equipped than the riflemen in my infantry company were when In Iraq, when we went in under an MP Table of Organization and Equipment, because that allowed us to be MORE heavily equipped than we would have been as light, motorized, or heavy infantry.
The Russians are now putting EVERY soldier on, at least, a squad or platoon-level net, with headsets featuring voice-activated microphone on a boom right in front of the mouth. Currently, in the U.S. military, only SF teams get that kind of commo gear.
And the AK-74, just like the AK-47, can be abjectly neglected, and still work flawlessly, unlike the M-16 platform which is an absolute attention whore.
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The only reason the Israeli army has kicked muslem ass for so long is because they learned the voodoo magic of aiming. Muslems pray and spray. And the Mossad. Who would ever think Jews were good at stabbing people in the back? The Russian army would easily win by sheer numbers. But the Russian army cant get to Syria, or Israel except through a massive logistics effort. The Russian air force, and missile force could flatten Israel's infrastructure easily enough, but Jews would survive. Cockroaches spring to mind. All this presupposes that we didn't enter into the conflict. A fantasy, of course.
@44
"I doubt Syria has any strike capability against Israel, and the US would help them retailate to any strike."
We're gonna nuke Syria?
And start a nuclear world war?
Over some penny-ante bullshit that Israel has brought on itself?
Whatever you're smoking, stay away from me -- I have too many years in to fail an army piss test.
@49
"Russia will always be close to America, ask Sarah Palin "
You can always tell the dunderheads -- the one's who can't tell the difference between Sarah Palin in an interview, and Tina Faye doing a hit-piece in a Saturday Night Live skit.
One of the central problems Israel has is its myriad of despicable westerners who adopt the 'Jew' label. Mahar, Behar, Madonna, Dunham, Silverman, Apatow. This is a tiny representation. The entire group displays hypocrisy, vulgarity, depravity etc etc.
Shut them down, Israel!
This is remarkably restrained.
Eye for an eye, rather than the usual Amerikan thug culture of: hit us, and we will hit back twice as hard!
Or the usual Norks or Arabs rhetoric of wiping out the enemy and weeping and blood and ashes BS statements.
Is there anything in this doctrine that seems unfair? You hit our airport, we hit one of your airports.
It makes it seem more credible in my opinion. And I pray that Trump hurries and gets our troops out of there before the Deep State manages to engineer an "accident" that gets a bunch of our boys killed in an attempt to pull us further into that Middle East cesspool.
I believe the Israeli armed forces are much better than their neighbors' armed forces. But the difference in quality of troops is not as wide as it was in their previous engagements as recently as 1973 in the Yom Kippur war.
I used to be of the mind that we should support Israel because they are an ally and a democracy in that region. Now, I ask what difference does that make when they are a treacherous ally and we'd probably be better off allied to a monarchy?
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