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Friday, February 22, 2019

Mailvox: BREXIT update

From a UK observer of the Brexit shenanigans:

The EU is prepared to offer Britain an extension to the Article 50 period. The offer is from 29 March 2019 to 18 April 2019, a total of 14 working days. Theresa May has wasted more time than this repeatedly since November. In return for agreeing to the extension, the EU wants £7bn. i.e. £500m per working day. Whilst there is probably a majority in Westminster for an extension to Article 50, such a financial penalty could be sufficient to extinguish that majority and deliver Brexit on time.

It is notable that they are making this offer before we have asked for it. Previously they said they would only make an offer if we asked. They are clearly worried about the economic contraction of the Eurozone currency economies. In particular, the EU estimates that Germany will lose 100,000 jobs in a ‘no deal’ scenario.

One of the things which the EU was adamant that Britain should pay for as part of its departure was the cost of offices in London which would no longer be used for European agencies. Mr Justice Smith ruled this week that the 25 year office lease of European Medicines Agency, signed in 2014, is not legally frustrated by Brexit. There is no legal obstacle to the EU continuing to run its affairs from Britain, and therefore the EU is liable for the full 25 year lease of £500m. There talk of appealing to the European Court of Justice, however, the law and the contract is very clear. There is a reason that international companies choose English Common Law as the basis for their deals, even when neither of the parties is actually English.

As part of Brexit, the German government has considered setting up English language courts in order to attract international business. They have completely missed the point that what attracts contractual parties to London is English Common Law, not the English language. It is the same thing that keeps the financial industry here, together with the fact that the banker’s wives get bored in Frankfurt, Paris and Geneva. Don’t underestimate the attractions of London’s social life. Places like Frankfurt don’t even have the quantity and quality of office accommodation to attract anything other than minimal “post office box” offices to establish a legal presence. Similarly, most of the European Medicines Agency staff will remain in London to seek other healthcare jobs and the Agency will need to be re-staffed with new people.

When the £39bn EU financial demand was first mooted, several groups of lawyers took a look at the basis for this demand and concluded that the EU did not have a legal basis for its demands. Ensuring that the EU does not get a penny to which it isn’t legally entitled is part of demonstrating responsible behaviour to the EU. Today the EU is saying that any discussion of future relationship after a ‘no deal’ scenario would be prefixed by a demand for the money. Britain should not attempt to strike a deal with an organisation which is clearly behaving outwith the law. How could we possibly trust an agreement with them? They are not “agreement capable”.

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43 Comments:

Blogger weka February 22, 2019 4:21 PM  

It will be a hard Brexit. Both Labout and rhe Tories know that remaiming is electoral suicide.

Except in London and Scotland, but they don't have enoigh votes and they are not English.

Blogger veryfunnyminion February 22, 2019 4:25 PM  

"As part of Brexit, the German government has considered setting up English language courts in order to attract international business. They have completely missed the point that what attracts contractual parties to London is English Common Law, not the English language."

Hmmm, why am I all of a sudden thinking about the large-scale immigration of continentals, particularly Germans, to the U.S. in the 19th century? What could have gone wrong?

And if that's just English vs. German, what could go wrong with the latins, muzzies, africans, asians, south asians.....

Posterity indeed.

Blogger Chad Thundercockovich February 22, 2019 4:37 PM  

Fascinating that London's social life is that big of a deal.

Blogger D Zniger February 22, 2019 4:55 PM  

Let´s hope the EU has still the yellow vests on their mind and there will be a no deal Brexit. I was so happy when they voted for it and then came the never ending theater show of pretending. I almost lost a hope that there can be change through an election process.

Blogger Johnny February 22, 2019 4:59 PM  

If Theresa May were as good at bargaining as Trump is, she would request that the EU give Britain £500m per working day for remaining.

Blogger VFM #7634 February 22, 2019 5:00 PM  

"Fascinating that London's social life is that big of a deal."

Or that London is considered more glamorous than Paris these days.

Blogger JACIII February 22, 2019 5:03 PM  

Chad Thundercockovich wrote:Fascinating that London's social life is that big of a deal.

It's the same with city folk everywhere. They huddle in their hovels and crow, "Restaurants and museums! Culture!" when what they mean is "lot's of different crowded places to pay too much for watered down cocktails."

Godspeed to English for their renewed independence, though they have no idea what to do with it.

Blogger Jimmy February 22, 2019 5:21 PM  

In the old days Europe would have had cause for war. Today the US in Germany keeping them on their meds and the UK is a Nuclear power. We have impotent talk which is better than war. I wounder how far the EU would go if the UK was non-nuke. Not that there would be an exchange but it has to be figured into how far the UK can be pushed. Would a lessor state like Italy or Grease have been bullied far greater for leaving by the EU?

Blogger James G. February 22, 2019 5:34 PM  

I make the same point about Common Law contracts all the time to Remoaners: no way in hell Germans would change their legal system to accommodate. The German way is always the best way, except when it comes to moving large sums of money around.

The City isn't going anywhere.

And having worked for a bank in Frankfurt, it is very sedate compared to London. Good for quiet family life, not the social life. My German employees taught me a lot about leaving work at work.

Blogger minority of one February 22, 2019 5:36 PM  

"Today the EU is saying that any discussion of future relationship after a ‘no deal’ scenario would be prefixed by a demand for the money."

So what's that called? Preemptive retaliation!? No thanks. You would have to be a fool to re-enter that "relationship".

Blogger KPKinSunnyPhiladelphia February 22, 2019 6:04 PM  

Vox, thanks so much for publishing these missives you receive.

This one is especially noteworthy because it addresses just some of the granular issues that could have been useful negotiating points had Theresa May been a real negotiator, or had brought in as consultants top flight negotiating experts.

For example the EMA office lease -- if you don't give us X, we will ask the EMA to leave, and you will be on the hook for $500 mil. It would be a bluff, but it would become a negotiating point.

I know for a fact that EMA folks in London were very upset at being told they had to decamp to Amsterdam -- families with kids, etc. -- forced to move at the whim of the EU. As noted, many would just stay and work in private industry -- there are tons of jobs for them.

And the bankers wives thing is absolutely true. I was in Heathrow right around the Brexit vote, and I was chatting up a Brit, asking him if he was a Leaver or a Remainer. He said a Remainer, asserting that all the financial services folks would decamp to Dublin or Frankfurt, and that HSBC was already making noises about leaving.

I said, "Yeah,-- like the wives are going to want to leave the nice house in Kensington for Frankfurt." A guy behind me said, "Yes, the American has it right. They're staying."

Blogger Unknown February 22, 2019 6:28 PM  

Interesting to see the proliferation of the term "agreement capable." AFAIK it originated in our circle in a Saker article less than two years ago.

Blogger jijijeac February 22, 2019 6:29 PM  

i don't deny that brexit will happen or that the uk will do well afterwards but to use the arguments that "bankers wives want the london social life" is hilarious to say the least. london is an expensive muslim and negro infested city and banker life is more corporate oriented. unless u are a high earner london has almost nothing to offer u

Blogger Teleros February 22, 2019 6:49 PM  

jijijeac wrote:but to use the arguments that "bankers wives want the london social life" is hilarious to say the least. london is an expensive muslim and negro infested city and banker life is more corporate oriented. unless u are a high earner london has almost nothing to offer u

Bankers *are* high earners though. You can live in central London in places like Chelsea and avoid the Mohammedan hordes fairly easily - if you're a big earner in banking you take taxis rather than buses or tube trains, the cost of property (and items in shops) keeps poor people away, etc. Unless you're unlucky, you won't bump into any of the dangerous kind of Diversity. Alternatively, live outside London and commute in by train (ie packed full of fellow white people).

Blogger Robin February 22, 2019 7:07 PM  

You are correct.

https://thesaker.is/why-the-recent-developments-in-syria-show-that-the-obama-administration-is-in-a-state-of-confused-agony/

Blogger Damaris Tighe February 22, 2019 7:27 PM  

Many suspect the EU is "tired and emotional": drunk.

Blogger Damaris Tighe February 22, 2019 7:29 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger maniacprovost February 22, 2019 8:14 PM  

Interesting to see the proliferation of the term "agreement capable." AFAIK it originated in our circle in a Saker article less than two years ago.

The concept dates back to at least the cold war, although maybe not that exact phrase.

Nothing new under the sun.

Although, as it's the most massive object in the gravity well, technically we're above the sun.

Blogger jfreddd February 22, 2019 9:34 PM  

Dude, it’s the food.

Blogger Damaris Tighe February 22, 2019 9:35 PM  

InformationMerchant wrote:
Sacrificing every generation of white girls in big cities to the Muslims is a given. Even Nigel Farage doesn't want to talk about Islam: https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage-quits-ukip-over-tommy-robinson-appointment-a4008401.html


Nigel Farage is a curious man. He has been playing That Racist Over There (TROT) forever. UKIP's new raison d'etre is the free speech/Islam issue - Brexit is now a short term issue. UKIP's support for Tommy Robinson and Sargon's Populist Civic Nationalism is a first movement towards any Nationalism in Britain and I think Nigel, uncharacteristically, calculated wrong this time.

It is fascinating the internet influencers have made landfall into real politics in this way: and a great case-study on how more of this might be done.

Nationalist-Populist politics and Alt-Right thought !

Blogger VD February 22, 2019 9:37 PM  

to use the arguments that "bankers wives want the london social life" is hilarious to say the least.

You're an idiot. Stop commenting here for your own good. I doubt you've ever even been to London. The argument is not hilarious, it is entirely correct.

Anonymous Anonymous February 22, 2019 10:07 PM  

I have an ex-girlfriend working at one of the law-firms that is administering Brexit.

When I asked her her biggest trepidation about Brexit, she said 'having to leave London' which superseded 'not being able to travel around Europe as easily'.

If Brexit is inevitable and only the terms are contentious, do not under-estimate the political influence of the preferences of these women. For some reason, they love London, and they like visiting Europe, but they really don't want to live in Europe. I think London, being the home of the City of London Corporation with centuries of running a forbidden Kingdom in plain-sight, is much more proficient then other European capitals at conducting a two-tiered society. London shields these affluent women from the pathologies of their liberalism. The ex is a good girl, not progressive beyond fashion, relatively conservative in a secular sense, very anglo, practical. She is a good barometer for a whole class of women in London - the studious attractive types inheriting the places we men have relinquished in our modern effeminacy.

If the female companions of senior and mid-level corporate personnel greatly favour London, holding other factors more or less constant, that is a major factor in the minds of divorce-wary, self-interested management.

Blogger Voracious Reader February 22, 2019 10:32 PM  

How amusing. Pay them £500M a day so we can have a discussion with them about our own destiny?

Here's what England now thinks about all of it: The EU can "sod off".

After the 29th of March, they can take all of their delusional demands and shove it quite firmly up their backside.

And because their psychotic leadership is being difficult, we want now Belgium as a consolation prize for leaving their nightmare. All of it. From Eben Emael to Antwerp, just like the Spanish enjoyed before France embraced Rousseau and his madness. We'll show them how one should properly run a new Empire.

Blogger Johnny February 22, 2019 10:33 PM  

Don't know about this London stuff and the ladies who don't want to leave, but one of the self evident problems with the EU is that the populations don't want to leave the old sod. If they were more mobile the economic laggards would be losing population to the more prosperous. If it were the US, job seekers would leave, and countries like Italy would be losing population like crazy. Instead they have terminally high unemployment areas.

That is why the fixed currency thing isn't working. The population isn't leaving the laggards.

Blogger Mandos February 22, 2019 10:38 PM  

"In return for agreeing to the extension, the EU wants £7bn. i.e. £500m per working day."

It's pretty amazing when you think about it that this kind of discussion does not equate to an actual declaration of war. The consanguineous elites across the continent are far more loyal to each other to keep the racket going than the royal families of the old days who had actual blood ties but their personal interests far less intertwined.

This can't end well on the long run.

Blogger Voracious Reader February 22, 2019 10:51 PM  

@3 and @6, have you been to Soho in the last 2-3 years? 60 blocks of inebriated fun and exuberant madness. There's nothing like it on the Continent. We Brits know how to trip the light fantastic every weekend.

Plus, there aren't enough Mohammedan immigrants in central London to to kill the mood (yet), unlike half of the arrondissements across Paris.

Come embrace the adventure and remember why planet Earth isn't quite entirely doomed just yet. #LondonTourism

Blogger weka February 22, 2019 11:16 PM  

@23 How amusing. Pay them £500M a day so we can have a discussion with them about our own destiny?

Here's what England now thinks about all of it: The EU can "sod off".

After the 29th of March, they can take all of their delusional demands and shove it quite firmly up their backside.

And because their psychotic leadership is being difficult, we want now Belgium as a consolation prize for leaving their nightmare. All of it. From Eben Emael to Antwerp, just like the Spanish enjoyed before France embraced Rousseau and his madness. We'll show them how one should properly run a new Empire.


And since the EU damaged the economies of NZ, Australia and Canada with malice aforethought for three decades, they can cede French Polynesia to NZ, New Caledonia to Australia, and French Guiana to Canada.

We will make the empire great again.

Blogger ZhukovG February 22, 2019 11:23 PM  

I can't speak for it now, but in the 80's London was amazing. Miles and miles of stuff to see and do. Clean, no serious crime to speak of, at least compared to American cities.

Made me proud to be descended from those fine people.

When you look at London it occurs to you that perhaps the British Empire isn't really gone. They just brought in a junior partner, the United States, to do the manual labor.

Blogger Charles February 22, 2019 11:24 PM  

Vox, Would you kindly ask your emailer their opinion of the likelyhood or not, feasibility or not, of the Queen to prorogue Parliament to bring about Brexit on time?

Blogger wreckage February 22, 2019 11:39 PM  

@28 the Brit plan was always to own shares in every productive enterprise across the entire planet and never work again. It took a couple of centuries to set up, but it seems to have worked.

Blogger Voracious Reader February 22, 2019 11:43 PM  

#MEGA = Make The Empire Great Again.

I love it. Let's order the hats today. Broad-brimmed, with a rakish tilt to the right side. And Rule .303 to keep order.

Blogger wreckage February 23, 2019 1:39 AM  

@31. MEGA!

Blogger Primus Pilus February 23, 2019 2:06 AM  

The most interesting part of this is the German government engaging in magical cargo cult thinking with their courts. The IQ decline amongst the elites is real.

Blogger PCA February 23, 2019 4:06 AM  

As a Parisian I'll just say the fact that the bankers are mostly in London--not to mention their wives--is a big part of what has made social life in Paris so wonderful. May it never change.

Blogger Jonathon Davies February 23, 2019 6:26 AM  

Time to give the EU the traditional two fingered salute and just leave.

Blogger Teleros February 23, 2019 6:53 AM  

The EU is prepared to offer Britain an extension to the Article 50 period. The offer is from 29 March 2019 to 18 April 2019, a total of 14 working days.

Anyone got a source for this BTW?

Blogger Solon February 23, 2019 7:38 AM  

The images we see of Paris here in the States do not look wonderful, at least, I don't think so. Lots of diversity, and of course you've got the Gilete Jaunes (sic?). It inspires hope though to hear from a Parisian that it might not be so bad, and, yes, may the (((bankers))) stay in London and stay the hell out of your fair country.

I was in Paris for a couple days over a decade ago, back then it was truly a glorious city to behold.

Sorry to hear that your country is going through so much turmoil. Hasn't really hit the States yet but it will, and soon.

A lot of us over here take inspiration from the French. Hang in there.

Blogger Deranged February 23, 2019 8:49 AM  

**The EU is prepared to offer Britain an extension to the Article 50 period. The offer is from 29 March 2019 to 18 April 2019, a total of 14 working days.

Anyone got a source for this BTW?**

Yeah I can not find any source online either

Blogger minority of one February 23, 2019 9:41 AM  

"If the female companions of senior and mid-level corporate personnel greatly favour London, holding other factors more or less constant, that is a major factor in the minds of divorce-wary, self-interested management."

There's a larger principle at work beyond bankers wives not wanting to leave London, women in general like what cities have to offer, comfort, convenience, shopping, financial security and shopping. They're not into roughing it. Sure they'll destroy civilization via feminism but who said women are logical. Cities in the bible are addressed in the feminine.

Blogger Avalanche February 23, 2019 10:20 AM  

Vox: "... most of the European Medicines Agency staff will remain in London to seek other healthcare jobs and the Agency will need to be re-staffed with new people."

What?!? You mean there won't be automatic labor mobility!? Didn't some really smart guy recently discuss this in a deeply educational fashion?

Hmmmmm. Wonder how this fits in this: "they must go back."

Blogger weka February 23, 2019 2:58 PM  

@31. Breaker Mourant did nothing wrong. Rule .303 is always in order.

Blogger Franz Lyonheart February 23, 2019 4:40 PM  

I'm a banker in London. Can confirm that the wife wouldn't want Frankfurt, Berlin, Paris, Amsterdam, or anywhere in Switzerland (which isn't actually in the EU either, btw), unless absolutely unavoidable. We're from two different European nationalities.

She's getting paper British instead, and she'll run the same process for me. I don't recognise paper citizenship anywhere, but if the British insist on offering it to us...., may just as well take advantage. Micro vs. Macro.

Blogger linesy February 25, 2019 10:33 AM  

Juncker is a very thirsty chap

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