ALL BLOG POSTS AND COMMENTS COPYRIGHT (C) 2003-2018 VOX DAY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION IS EXPRESSLY PROHIBITED.

Sunday, March 10, 2019

Altering the balance

Even defense industry experts are beginning to acknowledge the gradual alteration in the balance of global military power as its planetary supremacy is observably slipping away from the US military:
The US keeps losing, hard, in simulated wars with Russia and China. Bases burn. Warships sink. But we could fix the problem for about $24 billion a year, one well-connected expert said, less than four percent of the Pentagon budget.

“In our games, when we fight Russia and China,” RAND analyst David Ochmanek said this afternoon, “blue gets its ass handed to it.” In other words, in RAND’s wargames, which are often sponsored by the Pentagon, the US forces — colored blue on wargame maps — suffer heavy losses in one scenario after another and still can’t stop Russia or China — red — from achieving their objectives, like overrunning US allies.

No, it’s not a Red Dawn nightmare scenario where the Commies conquer Colorado. But losing the Baltics or Taiwan would shatter American alliances, shock the global economy, and topple the world order the US has led since World War II.
Granted, the RAND analysts have serious incentives to find problems to which they can sell the answers. But that doesn't necessarily indicate that the vulnerabilities they describe do not exist, especially when they are describing scenarios very similar to what other observers have pointed out.

I don't believe there is anything that can be done that is going to seriously slow the growth of regional power at the expense of the global power, especially because I believe we have already passed the point of peak globalism, for at least this cycle and possibly for good.

I suspect this is why the neocons and other Israeli imperialists are so desperate for war, almost any war, these days despite the American public's complete lack of interest in waging any additional ones. They are clearly aware that the USA is only going to be less powerful, and less capable of military intervention around the world, in the future.

Labels:

88 Comments:

Blogger sykes.1 March 10, 2019 11:59 AM  

$24 B won't prevent Russia from taking the Baltics or China from taking Taiwan. Defending those territories is impossible both tactically and strategically. The US will have to back down in order to keep some forces in the general areas. Loss of the Baltics and/or Taiwan will seriously undermine our alliances, but it is difficult, but not impossible, to image Japan allying with China or Germany with Russia. Difficult, but not impossible.

Blogger Lovekraft March 10, 2019 12:06 PM  

As reparations and holocaust remembrance has been firmly ingrained into our collective consciousness, people of the west have integrated this into how war and conflict is to be viewed. Very little, if any, attention to overall strategy. More piecemeal and selective which reinforces how China, Russia, Iran may be countered militarily.

Just a theory, but any victor has to consider the productive strength of their target. Take out the strong and brave and China, Russia etc would be left with a compliant yet broken populace. IF this isn't a deterrence, would the long trend of demoralization and undermining be part of their plan? And if it is a deterrence, it could be argued everyone should get on board.

Inversely, the strength of a nation should also be considered by the U.S. Beat China militarily and there's a vast multitude of its peripheral arms.

Blogger wahr01 March 10, 2019 12:08 PM  

It's basic logic:

The only way to go from complete hegemony is "down".

That said, the dogmas of the leftist cult of babel are predicated upon uncontested US global dominance.

The destruction of a SINGLE us capital ship by a regional power would utterly crush the Baizuo zeitgeist and cause a massive political shift among the elite classes.

Blogger Timmy3 March 10, 2019 12:20 PM  

I can’t imagine China invading Taiwan since it will invite sanctions and tanking China-US trade and the entire global economy that can’t be recovered for decades. Russia has certainly suffered greatly. China will likely wait it out. Further entwine Taiwan’s economy with China. Develop a trading partnership with Taiwan that makes it almost like the EU without an easy out clause.

The US military will decline. The march to socialism will deprive the military of much needed funds and expertise. Plus much technology is made in China. Not specialized tech, but common off the shelf PCs, components, and such. It’s a big gap.

Blogger Johnny March 10, 2019 12:22 PM  

At the close of 1945 the Untied States had half the industrial capacity of the entire world. We have had a long run, but of course we are slipping from that exalted position. Time to get used to it. And we are not currently running our country well.

Blogger The Pitchfork Rebel March 10, 2019 12:31 PM  

I wonder if Rand's war games account for the disruption caused when females begin getting pregnant as the specter of war looms.

Blogger The Pitchfork Rebel March 10, 2019 12:32 PM  

@4

The march to socialism is a symptom of problems, not the problem.

Blogger Cloudbuster March 10, 2019 12:35 PM  

Expecting a superpower an ocean away to defend a small island nation from a massive superpower just 80 miles across the water seems like an impossible scenario.

Blogger NO GOOGLES March 10, 2019 12:36 PM  

Of course we would be unable to actually prevent the Chinese from taking Taiwan or Russia from taking the Baltics. Force isn't the only part of our strategy - it is the consequences of those countries invading those territories that stays their hand. Deterrence - one of the few proven theories in history - is our strategy.

At the same time, we should not assume that our deterrence will be enough in perpetuity. The continual weakening of the USA and the West generally makes this deterrence less valuable. Our best chance if we want to prevent China invading Taiwan or Russia invading the Baltics is to put our own house in order.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd March 10, 2019 12:37 PM  

Timmy3 wrote:China will likely wait it out. Further entwine Taiwan’s economy with China. Develop a trading partnership with Taiwan that makes it almost like the EU without an easy out clause.

They are far down that road already. Many Taiwanese are working on the Mainland, many Mainlanders are in Taiwan, legally or otherwise. They have lots of cross-Straits trade.

Blogger Jonathan March 10, 2019 12:38 PM  

I think we all know the problem with the US military: not enough diversity.

Blogger Felix Bellator March 10, 2019 12:45 PM  

@7 - So what is the problem? People being evil and wanting free stuff?

Blogger George Phillies March 10, 2019 12:49 PM  

A General Eisenhower observed, once there are nuclear weapons on the defender's side, D-Day style invasions cannot succeed. Of course, the truth of this statement requires that the American President have the gonadal fortitude to give the invasion beaches the gift that keeps on glowing. It is entirely possible that Rand assumed that the requirement was not meant.

Blogger The Pitchfork Rebel March 10, 2019 1:06 PM  

@12

In part yes. But the deeper problem is the decoupling of rights and responsibilities, consumption from production, ownership from payment.

I have 15 year old relative-almost every kid in her class has a smartphone, and they are very particular about the type and age. Needless to say, the phone is provided by parents or grandparents as is the line/data. Now when I ask her about the home life, a small plurality live with both parents in an in-tact marriage.

Blogger Timmy3 March 10, 2019 1:07 PM  

Is that equivalent to an EU trade agreement? I’m sure many Taiwanese visited China as many British visited Europe. But a trade agreement is something else.

Blogger Cluebat Vanexodar March 10, 2019 1:11 PM  

If the Chinese public is all in on dominating Asia I don't see how we can stop them. And if Russia decides it is time to gather up its former satellites and more, there is not a whole lot we can do without soft Europeans taking the lead. But China is already weakening, and Russia is economically constrained from occupying the continent. America is strong due to isolation. The same geography which limits the projection of our power defends us. And if one of those two world powers were foolish enough to galvanize the public by attacking us, they would find that we have more up our sleeves than the vaporware they periodically publish. We have an unrecognized latent strength that will not become apparent until it is really needed. Our greatest danger is internal division.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan March 10, 2019 1:22 PM  

Well since Russia and its tiny defense budget told the FUSA Empire to stuff it during the reign of Jug Ears I think this observation has sailed already.

As for the hardware geek wardogs I think the simple math of carriers + short range planes versus missiles from advanced countries did not compute and those wardogs are sensing that their scam is over. I get that sentiment from that comment section which went straight to the usual are carriers obsolete argument.

Speaking of American Wunderwaffe versus American software reality, Gunny Harman RIP filmed a couple of episodes on the USS Makin Island and half of the in charge contingent were women. I have no doubt they are at least minimally qualified for their jobs, but when the time comes to face an enemy ready to really punch them with real weaponry I have my doubts they will be anything more hysterical lumps of flesh.

Blogger Tars Tarkusz March 10, 2019 1:23 PM  

This has likely been true much longer than any of these people are willing to admit. Probably at least since the 1970s if not even further back.

Blogger pyrrhus March 10, 2019 1:33 PM  

RAND is seriously understating the problem, if the issue is fighting wars overseas. The US is behind technologically, thanks to the profiteering of the MIC, and the stupidity of the Deep State, and it's even farther behind in human capital, with active recruiting of gays, girls, and minorities...And fighting in a foreign theatre against near peers has always been a losing proposition, ever since Athens got destroyed by the Sicily expedition.

Blogger Silent Draco March 10, 2019 1:49 PM  

Trade in a dozen LTCs/CDRs in the Pentagon per service, to add armed runners or couriers at company, battalion, or ship/installation. Foot traffic can get through when electronics are down. Take out some of the victim studies classes. Teach land or sea navigation again, and make it a basic branch graduation requirement. Any washouts are allowed one repeat, then released. Diversity that can't find its butt with both hands and a compass is worse than useless.

Blogger VD March 10, 2019 1:50 PM  

America is strong due to isolation.

The USA has already been invaded by 85 million immigrants and children of immigrants.

The same geography which limits the projection of our power defends us. And if one of those two world powers were foolish enough to galvanize the public by attacking us, they would find that we have more up our sleeves than the vaporware they periodically publish.

You're missing the point. No one is going to attack the USA. But the USA can no longer successfully attack and defeat the regional powers.

We have an unrecognized latent strength that will not become apparent until it is really needed.

That was the case in 1940. It is no longer the case.

Blogger justaguy March 10, 2019 1:54 PM  

The Rand war games are just a piece of the play to get more funding for Rand clients. Of course the US can't beat Russia and China in their own backyards- why should we. We can constrain them, make it too risky or not worth it to them though. That is what alliances are for.

The Chinese do not want to upset the way things are going. They do not want trade cut off and no oil allowed into China. They do not want a militarized and nuclear Japan. These things are likely to happen if they decided one day to invade a neighbor. They will wait and gain influence until it is easier/less risky.

The Russians-- a harder problem, mainly because of the Russian population in the three countries. However, why would Russia take the risk? There are too many problems with the non-russian population and controlling them-- I think that the Russians are avoiding empire for now until their society stabilizes.

Blogger ZhukovG March 10, 2019 2:03 PM  

Russia and China will not attack the USA. They are just waiting patiently for our empire to die of natural causes.

Russia, at least, has already demonstrated that it can successfully defend its vital interests from American interference. So Russia and China maintain their defensive posture and wait for us to stop thrashing.

Blogger Northpal March 10, 2019 2:05 PM  

USS Fitzgerald, collided with a Philippine container ship off the Japanese coast - 17 June 2017

USS John S. McCain collided with the Liberian-registered Alnic MC, near the Strait of Malacca in Singapore territorial waters - Aug. 21, 2017

A 60- to 70-foot South Korean fishing boat collided with the Lake Champlain - May 9, 2017

The Louisiana, a nuclear ballistic-missile submarine, and the Eagleview, a Military Sealift Command support vessel, collided while conducting routine operations in the Strait of Juan de Fuca off the coast of Washington State - Aug. 19, 2016

why American warships keep having accidents?

Now, the recent trial of the officer of the deck (OOD) on board Fitzgerald when the ship collided with the merchant vessel ACX Crystal off Japan in June 2017 has shown the standards of navigation and seamanship on board Fitzgerald to be even worse than was thought at the time.

The OOD admitted she had violated the commanding officer’s standing orders several times during the overnight transit off the coast of Japan. She also admitted to violating Coast Guard navigation rules; that she did not communicate effectively with the (CIC) Combat Information Centre (the girls weren't speaking to one another at the time) or operate safely in a high-density traffic condition; and did not alert the crew ahead of the impending collision.

A similar picture of confusion, equipment deficiencies, and lack of experience emerged in the fatal collision involving the destroyer McCain when approaching the Singapore Strait in August 2017. The subsequent investigation by Singaporean authorities found that people on the bridge of McCain did not understand the ship’s steering system, and that many of the decisions leading to the accident were the result of poor judgement by the commanding officer.

Hey suckers, nothing another $24 billion a year borrowed from China can't fix.

Blogger Cluebat Vanexodar March 10, 2019 2:14 PM  

VD wrote:America is strong due to isolation.

The USA has already been invaded by 85 million immigrants and children of immigrants.

The same geography which limits the projection of our power defends us. And if one of those two world powers were foolish enough to galvanize the public by attacking us, they would find that we have more up our sleeves than the vaporware they periodically publish.

You're missing the point. No one is going to attack the USA. But the USA can no longer successfully attack and defeat the regional powers.

We have an unrecognized latent strength that will not become apparent until it is really needed.

That was the case in 1940. It is no longer the case.


Not much to argue about there unless I want to quibble about details.

The dilution of culture is mainly a regional problem, and has not yet caused major division. Most of America is concerned and it will be reflected at the polls.

Invading a remote world power would be insane, but the scenario is a useful exercise.

We in the heartland are still strong. Don't give up on us.

Blogger 1st Earl Hardwicke March 10, 2019 2:14 PM  

With Cortez and Omar almost at the helm, what's to worry about to lead the West into the New World. With your avg American gorging themselves at Wendy's or Quinzo's.

So what's the most likely dystopian vision of the future? The USA gives ground and if lucky they reform their political system before totally being totally screwed by the Chinese?

Why not fall back totally on nuclear weapons and not give a monkeys. Go Planet of the Apes.

Blogger kurt9 March 10, 2019 2:17 PM  

I read this and compare with what I know about the mid to late 70's military and I think I can tell the difference. Our military was indeed in deplorable condition around, say, 1978. However, I suspect the officer NCO corp were still functional and were determined to turn things around. They were able to do this during the 1980's.

Today, I suspect much of the officer and NCO corp are no longer as motivated. The military has been used for social engineering since 1993, when the Clinton administration started. I suspect Dubya, despite his bluster, did very little to reverse the damage of the Clinton years on the military. His neo-cons simply used it a lot. They came 8 more years of damage from the Obama administration. Additionally, Obama made a point to replace as many flag-rank (and other service equivalents) officers as he could during his time. I think this did a lot of damage. There are essentially no staff in the military today that was there when the military was at its peak in 1989-1991. Even the NCO's from that period would be long gone.

Blogger Tars Tarkusz March 10, 2019 2:31 PM  

kurt9 wrote:I read this and compare with what I know about the mid to late 70's military and I think I can tell the difference. Our military was indeed in deplorable condition around, say, 1978. However, I suspect the officer NCO corp were still functional and were determined to turn things around. They were able to do this during the 1980's.

Even though the military is selective, they are still a product of the culture and people.

It is completely shocking how far we have fallen, even from 1980, especially in technology where we were the undisputed king. We basically invented computers and we are now incapable of manufacturing a computer.

Dubya was worse than Obama. In many way, Obama was a symptom and not a cause.

If we try to fight with China, all they have to do is not lend us the money to fight them, not deliver spare parts the military needs and not deliver consumer goods.

Blogger Ken Prescott March 10, 2019 2:40 PM  

There is a problem: this report has an agenda, and it's tied right back to the "TRANSFORMATIONAL" ideas that ruined DoD acquisition and defense policy in the 2000s.

The transformers are trying to sell snake oil.

War between near peers will be a long, expensive slog that will rack up horrid casualties on both sides. There is no magic cure for this, but this article is trying to suggest that there is.

Blogger Doktor Jeep March 10, 2019 2:42 PM  

Now I might be thus inclined to think "What can I do for my country?" and see if I can put my decades of technical skills into the mix perhaps as some means of help. Work for a military contractor? Maybe invent something? Would there be anything I could do?

Then I realize that I don't have a country. And all I'll be defending is the right of "free speech" for leftists but not for me, little boys being turned into little girls to dance in drag for old gay men, women who think testicles are a form of cancerous tumor, and last but most certainly not least, a nation that is for the most part hijacked by a hybrid coalition of billionaires and people who hate Christ. Aka ((they who shall not be maligned)).

Screw it. I'll continue to make my money making what amounts to toys for the most part.

Blogger Ken Prescott March 10, 2019 2:45 PM  

@28

"If we try to fight with China, all they have to do is not lend us the money to fight them, not deliver spare parts the military needs and not deliver consumer goods."

OK, problems with this argument:

1. All we have to do is not pay them the money we owe them already, and their financial sector comes completely unglued, as does their currency, because they have a lot of non-performing loans to guys with names like "Minister" and "General."

2. Actually, that isn't that serious an issue, not to the degree it's described by certain people with agendas that they don't quite discuss. (Said people are usually fronting for (((certain))) hedge funds with unusual investment goals and strategies.)

3. In a war with China, everyone's going to learn to make do with a lot less crap.

Blogger tz March 10, 2019 3:00 PM  

The Commies already have Denver.

You could predict it from Eisenhower with the "Military Industrial Complex", but even Smedley Butler's "War is a Racket".

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, we have been going abroad in search of monsters to destroy - Maduro is the latest - as well as toys, instead of the A-10 Warthog that is useful, the F-35. I don't know what we would need for a navy, only that it is not what we are getting. Then we have the whole diversity and vibrant military - I'm wondering how many are MS-13 already.

The military is a welfare system for the rich and another place to virtue-signal.

Blogger Crew March 10, 2019 3:00 PM  

Russia and China will not attack the USA. They are just waiting patiently for our empire to die of natural causes.

I agree they will not attack using conventional means, but there is nothing to prevent them from accelerating the collapse.

They could interfere in our elections by funding certain candidates who would help the collapse along, and they could fund various groups who want to interfere with oil exploration etc.

I notice that all the Peak Oilers seem to have migrated to Zero Hedge now, except they seem to be Peak Frackers.

Blogger Brett baker March 10, 2019 3:04 PM  

Quit confusing him with facts.

Blogger Brett baker March 10, 2019 3:06 PM  

Crew, the boomers realize they're not immortal; so they have to ensure everyone younger than them is miserable before they die.

Blogger KPKinSunnyPhiladelphia March 10, 2019 3:07 PM  

Totally agree with @1, @4, and @9.

If Russia wants to take the Baltics by force, or China wants to take Taiwan by force, they will likely succeed. If we had the will, we could make it hard on them, but we can't stop them, short of a very bloody conventional conflict, or a catastrophic nuclear one.

To paraphrase George C. Scott in "Dr. Strangelove," we'd definitely get our hair mussed.

But the probability of Russians or Chinese doing either of these things is very low, given the cold hearted real politik in Moscow and Beijing. There isn't a lot of upside for Putin or Xi -- Taiwan is simply an irritant to Chinese pride, and the Baltics are a lost dream of eastern European empire.

And all we have to do is show a teensy weensy bit of deterrent capability, just to be sure they won't do what they are only mildly inclined to do, if they are at all inclined to begin with, which is highly doubtfu.

Blogger DonReynolds March 10, 2019 3:08 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger DonReynolds March 10, 2019 3:10 PM  

I really do not know when it was that the NeoCons convinced this country that they needed the military capability to defeat any and every nation, anywhere in the world. I am pretty sure it was before my lifetime.

The purposes for having a military establishment are spelled out in the US Constitution, which does not mention anything about projecting that power with some certainty of defeating every possible enemy or combination of enemies in the world....nor does any other country, not even China or the former Soviet Union.

There is no American Empire nor was there ever intended to be. Wilson led this country into World War I, completely unprepared, in the same way that FDR led this country into World War II. Congressmen were openly shocked and surprised in 1917 when they found out that the US would be sending troops to France to fight! The US Army was in France for almost a year before they entered the fighting. There was little to fight with and no time to develop the weapons. No American aircraft were flown in the war. The best artillery available was the French 75mm. It took the Allies two years to gear up munitions production to go on the offensive, even with American industry participating. Everything takes time and in war, there is no time. (Napoleon used to tell his generals...."Ask me for anything but time.")

Even with American industrial power and manpower, combined with that of all the other Allied nations, it was a supreme effort to defeat the much smaller nations of Germany and Japan. Somewhere along the way, the NeoCons created the idea that the US needed to be able to do that alone, against anybody and everybody, with certain victory. Simply put, they ask for too much.

Blogger 1st Earl Hardwicke March 10, 2019 3:10 PM  

Wasn't there that female Democratic politician who had a Chinese Chauffeur and had links to receiving money from China. Wasn't Cuba taken over by bribing the generals in charge?

So much cheaper to put out contracts on people and pay people off right? Imagine if the British government had put out a contract on George Washington, and not sent in troops. Pick off people relatively silently, not with a bang but with a whimper.

Blogger tz March 10, 2019 3:16 PM  

I'm willing to cede the entire left coast as long as we get access to shipping rights and they build the great wall of America starting with the cascades, and going across the peaks to the Mexican border. Then Google wouldn't have problems wth Dragonfly.

Blogger Crew March 10, 2019 3:20 PM  

I'm willing to cede the entire left coast

That's where the real domino theory becomes reality!

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother March 10, 2019 3:23 PM  

I'm not worried about the fighting spirit of our ladies in uniform. Just go check out the Marines official Instagram's post for International Women's Day. Brutal, no quarter combat from those female warfighters.

Blogger Doktor Jeep March 10, 2019 3:23 PM  

Why do people think Russia and/or China want war? Even with the USA, or waiting for the USA to "die of natural causes" - lol - so they can wage war in their regions?

The Russians do not need to invade anybody. They have eleven time zones and resources galore. They lack people. But they are trying to do something about that, something that takes time, since they have the USA and its immigration policies to use as an example of what not to do. Russia's future is growing up. Russia does not allow LGBT to be school teachers. This is related.

Now China. When comparing the USA to China, we are comparing a nation that puts a million dollar missile into a 1 dollar tent - maybe it had new tent stakes or something - and claims mission success to a nation that has millennia of Sun Tzu and the mindset that if you can get what you want without war then do it. Remember all those big bloated SUVs that Americans lost the ability to afford starting back around 2002? Lots of them got traded in and sold in auction and ended up in China. I worked in that industry. The Chinese prefer the barn doors on the back of their Suburbans instead of the single lift door for obvious reasons. They got our SUVs without firing a shot.

I would say that maybe the Russians and Chinese might put agents into our government. But we have AIPAC for that.

Blogger Joseph Maroney March 10, 2019 3:27 PM  

Rand corp is the reason we shipped away all of our manufacturing jobs in the first place.

Blogger tz March 10, 2019 3:29 PM  

Rand must be looking for more cash.

For Iraq (William Sturgis Lind had an article) about where there were two actual teams where they tilted things.

This might be what he was referring to

No, Team Red must put the anti-aircraft out in the open as sitting ducks and NEVER shoot at the big radar signature Ospreys!.

That was an obviously rigged game.

Blogger 1st Earl Hardwicke March 10, 2019 3:35 PM  

Is it better to have totally inept politicians, or competent ones?

Behind closed doors AOC, might be a total genius! There was a James Woods twitter post saying she is clever cookie.

Who knows with Bio weapons the fat N. Korean guy might become a "God king!" of the world. I suppose only takes a relatively small core of dedicated people to make a lot of difference.

Blogger eclecticme March 10, 2019 3:35 PM  

OT but military related. The Duran reports on a Bloomberg piece. Pence asked Merkel to send German war ships through the Kursk Strait. Poroshenko wanted a permanent western naval force in the Sea of Azov.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XNxM9pT4Huc
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-07/merkel-is-said-to-reject-u-s-pressure-to-provoke-russia-s-navy

Blogger Tars Tarkusz March 10, 2019 3:38 PM  

@31 To whatever degree we can hurt them financially, it is still very lopsided. If we simply refuse to pay them, they are really no worse off than they were before. The only harm is paper.
From what I understand, we could do this completely legitimately. The Chinese refused to pay off their debt to America and Americans from WWII. They have owed that money with interest and penalties for over 7 decades.
If we don't pay them, they suffer paper losses, if they don't lend us the money, we can't prosecute the war.
The spare problem is much bigger than it appears to be. Can we make any of these parts and things we need entirely without China? It is not just the finished parts, it is their components they are made from as well and all of the steps of production.

I do with your last point and there are people who overstate the problem for their own reasons. But that doesn't mean it's not a problem.

Blogger FUBARwest March 10, 2019 3:48 PM  

24b doesnt sound like enough money to solve issues that result in the USA taking significant losses.

Maybe the 24bil is the incentive money to get all the NonAmericans out.

Blogger Hammerli280 March 10, 2019 3:50 PM  

Yes, the Post-Cold-War Era is ending. So? History happens. Things change. Anyone who expected the American Unipolar Moment to go on forever was silly.

Having said that, the hand-wringing on all sides is a bit unwarranted. The real elephant in the room is the need (blindingly obvious for the last 25 years, if you ask me) to rebalance the American force structure.

Europe is a theater of interest, but the other European states have resources enough to see off any Russian expansion IF they bother to exert themselves. And if they can't be bothered, there is no sense in spending one dollar or one drop of blood to save them.

The Middle East? Also an area of interest, but a hell of a lot less now that we have energy independence.

The Pacific? Much more our headache, especially since the Chinese are expanding...and with a chip on their shoulder.

What this all means is that we need to shift resources from the Army to the Navy and Air Force. Quit building Little Crappy Ships, build subs and aircraft carriers. Get a proper F-14 replacement program going (start the radar ASAP, the software for that will be the long pole). Plug the USAF into that program, two wings of F-22s were never enough.

And across the board, start training to fight a peer opponent. This is probably the biggest change that can be made. For thirty years, we've grown accustomed to fighting police actions and counterinsurgency campaigns in conditions of total air and naval supremacy. Our ability to do anything BUT chase insurgents in the Middle East has atrophied, and we need to start getting it back.

Blogger Hammerli280 March 10, 2019 3:56 PM  

@27 kurt9: In the late 1970s, the readiness was in the gutter. We had two aces up our sleeve.

The first was that the money was being diverted to the development of a new generation of weapons that exploited the then-new microprocessor technology. Pournelle's Strategy of Technology was guiding that.

The second was that while money was tight, thinking didn't cost much, and new ideas were encouraged. AirLand Battle and the Maritime Strategy both came from the late '70s.

People today don't really appreciate just how much of a surprise the 1990 Gulf War was. Our forces were at the very apogee of training and equipment, and the Iraqis had about as much chance as a troop of Girl Scouts. Maybe less...the Girl Scouts could have slowed us down by selling cookies.

Blogger Skyler the Weird March 10, 2019 3:58 PM  

Sounds like the IJN wargaming the plan for the invasion of Midway. Admiral Matome Ugaki routinely overturned umpires’ rulings about the sinking of Japanese carriers. The games were predetermined to let the Japanese win.

The same thing probably happens at Rand. The Pentagon won't pay for bad news.

Blogger Mark Stoval March 10, 2019 3:59 PM  

As a child I had a lot of relatives in the military. One was high up enough to be on the planning staff during the war in Vietnam. As they told stories of being stationed around the world, I had a real question that was too big for a kid to answer.

Why do we give a rat's ass about things on the other side of the globe that has noting to do with us? Why are we protecting Japan? I read in a history book once that we were not the best of friends in the 40s.

Here I am many decades later, a certifiable old coot. I still don't understand why we have to intervene in situations around the globe that really don't concern us.

Why on earth would we want to pick a fight with Russia? Or China. While at the same time we can not stop an invasion on our own southern border.

Blogger tz March 10, 2019 4:02 PM  

Juxtaposition
Bill Lind's latest on the push for war with Iran

Blogger inthebriarpatch March 10, 2019 4:24 PM  

As balkanization gets rolled out, I see no problem with this.

Blogger eclecticme March 10, 2019 4:43 PM  

@54. tz March 10, 2019 4:02 PM
Juxtaposition
Bill Lind's latest on the push for war with Iran


Good reading. Also, IMO Iran has (or should have) lots of competent military embedded in the US to raise hell should the US invade Iran. I hesitate to call them terrorist, more patriotic Iranians to engage in assymetric warfare against US infrastructure.

Blogger Jo K March 10, 2019 4:47 PM  

"...would shatter American alliances, shock the global economy, and topple the world order the US has led since World War II."

And?

All of that sounds Doomsday enough, I guess, but since I'm so dumb I have to think through things real slow.

1. "shatter American alliances" -- So? Serious question: what exactly is the downside here? Also, is alliance really the right word when the relationship is built on one nation protecting another?

2. "shock the global economy" -- So? Again, bear with me. I only have an 85 IQ. This is written as if it's a foregone conclusion that a "shock" to the global economy would be bad. Written as if someone somewhere had a crystal ball and saw the future. A part of me suspects it might be a long-term good to start unraveling a lot of the global economy connections. Or at least begin trading on a playing field that's favorable to America, as opposed to being favorable to this or that politician.

3. "topple the world order" -- So? When did the current world order get mistaken for providence? As long as America can protect America then all is well, and other countries can certainly structure their governments to take care of themselves.

Note: above, I mention that all's well as long as America can protect America. For what it's worth, I don't believe America can protect America. It's not an issue of budget or the number of guns or how ship ready the navy happens to be. The invasion of America began a long time ago, and it had nothing to do with military force. It came from Hollywood. We were bedazzled by pretty faces. They invaded our minds and twisted our understanding of right and wrong.

Blogger Hammerli280 March 10, 2019 5:11 PM  

WRT a conflict with Iran, it helps to remember that we have had unfinished business with them since 1979. The only real question is whether or not it is to our benefit to strike.

Blogger Francis Parker Yockey March 10, 2019 5:12 PM  

@22

They [China] do not want a militarized and nuclear Japan.

Good point. Whereas a militarized, nuclear Japan would be a useful ally for us. But do "our" leaders want a useful ally, or do they want to maintain hegemony as long as possible, regardless of the cost?

@24 The subsequent investigation by Singaporean authorities found that people on the bridge of McCain did not understand the ship’s steering system, and that many of the decisions leading to the accident were the result of poor judgement by the commanding officer.

If I recall correctly, they:
1. Transferred steering control entirely to the lee helm, and
2. Uncoupled the throttles for the two engines
Without realizing that they had done either.

@39
Wasn't there that female Democratic politician who had a Chinese Chauffeur

(((Feinstein))). Had a driver/ assistant/ liaison to the Overseas Chinese community for something like 20 years who was a spy for the Communist Chinese. He even attended Chinese consulate functions on her behalf.
http://thefederalist.com/2018/08/03/sen-dianne-feinsteins-personal-driver-20-years-chinese-spy/

Might also want to look into McConnell's wife, her family's shipping company, and their connections to the Chinese goveenment.

On the Taiwan issue -- if we were serious about defending Taiwan, one of the first things to do would be to ensure that the Taiwanese navy they has decent subs. But we don't make diesel-electrics anymore...

Blogger Ivan Ivanoff March 10, 2019 5:23 PM  

>muh Baltics
>muh alliances

Why does anybody bother reading this agenda-ed drivel at all? Baltics are indefensible and will be captured in a matter of _hours_ if russian command deems it necessary(no, locals will not resist at all, and all their "resistance" earlier consisted of shooting their own kolkhoz directors). Sanctions(lol, another weird american hinge) will stop her, because for Baltics to be captured situation has to deteriorate right down to real war in Europe.
And no, in case of real war in Europe muh alliances will not hold either. Russians(and probably Chinese by proxy) had enough chances to observe how inefficient that multiethnic NATO mob actually is.

But it`s not Russia that wants war so bad in the first place, hehe.

Blogger Haxo Angmark March 10, 2019 5:25 PM  

(((David Ochmanek)))...

and the only thing the Pentagram - currently burning through c. (real numbers) $1,000,000,000,000/year - might do with another $24 billion is buy gold toilet seats for it's vast multitude of Generals and Admirals.

@39: "just put out a contract...". That sometimes works, cf. Sarajevo 1914/Kennedy, sometimes not. After Andrew Jackson liquidated the (((Second National Bank))), the (((Rothschilds))) - via code duello - tried to assassinate him. But Jackson personally killed all (((they))) sent. That

was a man.

Blogger Northpal March 10, 2019 5:30 PM  

Brett baker wrote:Crew, the boomers realize they're not immortal; so they have to ensure everyone younger than them is miserable before they die.
I am sure last week you felt the planet shift and tremble.
That was the latest "Boomer" meeting, your name was mentioned, best keep a quiet profile. Don't WHINE so loud and often.

Blogger DraveckysHumerus March 10, 2019 5:37 PM  

Our current military exists solely to communicate the arrows and olive branches duality. Toe the line else we'll kill you, toe our line and you'll benefit from our power. Wealthy families ensure the US military is available to do their bidding, to serve as their muscle in foreign exploitation. Everything you need to understand appears in this site's archives.

Blogger Mr. Xloveli (home website: foetos.wordpress.com) March 10, 2019 5:56 PM  

America still retains general leadership of the world. Through its technological leadership and martial awareness, NSA, CIA, adjuncts to the best Army in the world, particularly its multi-branches of Special Forces (Delta, Rangers, Seals).

If you look at the caliber of America's fighting forces, it is GOOD to be humble. It is unearned arrogance that topples powers; the war games keep America on their toes.

But in the general balance of powers, American strike potential ... Click Here for MORE

Blogger JohnG March 10, 2019 5:57 PM  

We're in trouble. We've transitioned the last couple years from an Afghan based COIN scenario to the DATE (decisive action training environment) scenario which is a kick the Russians out of the Ukraine war game. In the game, a US Brigade defeats a Russian tank division with no losses, despite not having air superiority. Apparently nobody remembers Soviet doctrine. The Navy is happily crashing boats but puts on really fabulous gay pride parades. The Army is fighting to put trannies in and fudging women through Rangers and SF selection. No general has got sacked for being ineffective in Afghanistan, you've got Command Sergeant's Major running around the bases overseas telling troops "SHARP will win the war!" (SHARP - Sexual Harassment/Assault Response and Prevention program). We're entirely unserious about winning a war and totally underestimate (if we even give it much thought) our adversaries.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd March 10, 2019 6:07 PM  

If Russia wants to take the Baltics by force, or China wants to take Taiwan by force, they will likely succeed. If we had the will, we could make it hard on them, but we can't stop them, short of a very bloody conventional conflict, or a catastrophic nuclear one.

Why would America intervene? Why would we even care? Someone has been saying we're done fighting for foreigners, and I hope that's true.

Blogger Matrim's Mutterings March 10, 2019 6:08 PM  

When the US collapses do you think nukes will play a role, or will they successfully keep a lid on it like the collapsing Soviet Empire did?

Blogger Paul M March 10, 2019 7:08 PM  

Because the USA has just got no damn business trying to hold the baltics.

Blogger weka March 10, 2019 7:22 PM  

I was once married into a family thay left china ahead of the communist cadre. (Not now. Bad mistake)

One brach of teh famimy dates settlement here to the reign of Victoria. They are not kiwis. They are Chinese.

I can see Beijing invading Chima and eating the losses. It is the oldrst empire, and imperial push akc against imperial over reach happens.

The alternative will be something akin to the Boxer rebellion

Blogger JovianStorm March 10, 2019 8:32 PM  

The Russians and Chinese have the same problems we do with their militaries in that their gear is pretty slipshod and not tough enough to sustain the duration of warfighting that a regional conflict would entail. They are pretty badass when bombing camel jockeys with 60s-era Soviet equipment but a Russia or China VS. The United Soviet Socialist America is going to play like a comedy of errors, faulty transports breaking and blue-on-blue casualties.

The difference will be in the tolerance of the population in sending their sons and daughters to certain death... We know from experience that the very first transgender that dies is going to break the US will to fight...


The issue is that when the US is shown to no longer be able to push anyone around, it's diplomatic pressure will revert to exactly 0 with all other countries...at this point only the collapse of China into civil war would remove them from the playing board and Russia would have to already be at war to be too weak to maneuver militarily.

Blogger Matamoros March 10, 2019 9:14 PM  

Putin is Preparing to Fight and Win a Limited Nuclear War Against the West
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2019/03/putin-is-preparing-to-fight-and-win.html

Blogger Crew March 10, 2019 9:51 PM  

@71: Ahhh, that is how they get their WWIII:

“Therefore,” Skobov says, “the first order of business is the formation of a broad international anti-Putin coalition, which recognizes the threat coming from the Kremlin and is ready to respond to Putin’s strike.”

Blogger SciVo March 10, 2019 9:51 PM  

VD wrote:We have an unrecognized latent strength that will not become apparent until it is really needed.

That was the case in 1940. It is no longer the case.


Indeed. What tool & die makers would retool what factories to make machines with steel from where??? If I ran just about any other country in the world, I would take this moment to experiment with different methods to cultivate my own country's productive and defensive self-sufficiency. Opportunities to escape hegemony don't come around every decade.

Blogger The Deplorable Podunk Ken Ramsey March 10, 2019 10:36 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Crew March 10, 2019 10:41 PM  

Why does Israel need to US to fight its wars when it has such great weapons?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izv2V0ZKRug

Blogger Cluebat Vanexodar March 10, 2019 11:12 PM  

SciVo wrote:VD wrote:We have an unrecognized latent strength that will not become apparent until it is really needed.

That was the case in 1940. It is no longer the case.


Indeed. What tool & die makers would retool what factories to make machines with steel from where??? If I ran just about any other country in the world, I would take this moment to experiment with different methods to cultivate my own country's productive and defensive self-sufficiency. Opportunities to escape hegemony don't come around every decade.


We do still have the capability to ramp it up. We still have foundries, and we still build world class automated equipment. We are no longer the machine tool capital of the world, but we also were not before the second world war. I have worked for manufacturers of industrial equipment at companies in the US and Europe. We no longer control the market- largely due to punitive tax policies and NAFTA, but we are still very good at building things.

It's not as bad as you think. We are getting ready to buy a new stretch press from Cyril Bath. Many of our older machines are still too valuable to replace and American companies rebuild them for us. One company that I worked for sold an assembly line to Bosch- a builder of assembly lines who we outbid, and we made a profit. That was about 15 years ago, but the integrator is still in business, killing the competition.

Blogger Clay March 10, 2019 11:31 PM  

Matter of fact...Israel is going to get themselves a few new "toys":

http://www.navyrecognition.com/index.php/news/defence-news/2019/january/6782-germany-to-provide-israel-3-dolphin-class-submarines-more.html

Blogger Giovanni Dannato March 11, 2019 12:46 AM  

The fundamental limitation of money is you cannot pay a single man to die with all the money in the world. That is its fundamental limitation. If the average guy can't hope for a virgin bride and family, it's over no matter what drones, missiles, and technology you brag about. Human intent is still greater than tech.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan March 11, 2019 4:13 AM  

It never fails bring this topic up and the Wunderwaffe posse shows up to inform us of weapons of magic, versus crummy Russian weapons.

Blogger JohnofAustria March 11, 2019 6:56 AM  

At the mid to lower officer level, we've been aware of this for a while.

In EWS a year ago, our retired Infantry Col instructor never ceased pointing out all the new and coming ways our methods of warfare could be disrupted.

Blogger JohnofAustria March 11, 2019 9:01 AM  

Yup, people don't know how badly the top brass are converged. And that trickles down to the O4-6 ranks, since you stay based on projecting success based on who gets stars.

Blogger JohnofAustria March 11, 2019 9:01 AM  

W wasted money and belief, Obama replaced heritage people.

Blogger JohnofAustria March 11, 2019 9:04 AM  

A masterwork shiv

Blogger Mr.MantraMan March 11, 2019 11:02 AM  

IMO all the software fails of .mil by that I mean the human side I lay at the feet of CivNattery and its universal values scam, they were completely trounced by the lowest scum on Earth. So bad that tough talking Marine General Mattis is beclowning himself with tranny special status.

It's so bad that if I were in and still my same old E-3 wonderfulness I would stand up and ask these thugs of special pleadings and ask them if they have anything to offer me as a straight white man, might as well open the negotiations big or go home these days.

Blogger JohnofAustria March 11, 2019 1:25 PM  

I also think that the fetish for low casualties is part of the top brasses recognition of our actual strength.

We simply don't have the population anymore that can sustain large amounts of relatively easily trained healthy I man who are invested in the national cause. We can still find a small coterie are of significantly more capable SOCOM level guys that will enable us to an act Imperial strategy across the world. But those guys and the specialists who enable their kind of warfare are difficult to screen for and train and take flocking for ever to get up to usable speed.

If we took 20% casualties in the field forces of SOCOM, American hard power would be massively hurt. If we took 20% pilot casualties we'd be fucked.

Blogger flyingtiger March 11, 2019 7:10 PM  

I am unimpressed. If the US allies with Russia, China is toast. with China, Russia is toast. Now all three nations have internal problems and are not interested in war. They know if they go to war, their internal problems will stab them in the back.

Blogger Unknown March 12, 2019 3:43 PM  

Russia, yeah, that would be absolute shit. But with China do two things: 1) Inform the world that we're blockading sea trade with China and any ship that has a problem with it has a date with the ocean floor. 2) Destroy their coal gassification plants. Then just wait for their economy to collapse and mass starvation to set in.

Blogger slackercruster March 14, 2019 10:23 AM  

While the USA was busy redefining gender and trying to figure out what bathroom to use, Russia has made hyper-sonic, unstoppable nuke missiles. And China has landed on the far side of the moon and is sprouting plants on the moon.

Everything I have on from head to foot is foreign made. All my electronics, cameras and media is foreign made. Eventually USA will be taken over by China, Russia and Mexico....with the full faith and backing of the woke millennial's, Gen Z and iGener's. And if not taken physically over, then be under their thumb.

Mexico's plan for reconquista has been very successful. CA is gone...Mexico controls the vote in CA and CA can control D.C. with it lawsuits. Therefore Mexico can control D.C. NM, AZ, NV and TX are next to fall to Mexico.

According to NPR 25% of the kids in TX have illegals as parents. Sounds unbelievable...but here is the audio.

https://archive.org/details/FearOfDeportationOrGreenCardDenialDetersSomeParentsFromGettingKidsCare

Post a Comment

Rules of the blog
Please do not comment as "Anonymous". Comments by "Anonymous" will be spammed.

<< Home

Newer Posts Older Posts