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Wednesday, March 20, 2019

Mailvox: May out by Monday

From the Brexit Insider:
Reports in this morning’s press are that there are several Brexiteer ministers on their way to Downing Street to tell Theresa May to get out. There was already suggestions a couple of days ago that Brexiteer MPs were prepared to abstain in a ‘no confidence’ vote in the House of Commons in order to bring down what is at least theoretically their own party’s government.

Under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011, if the ‘no confidence’ vote was lost by the government, there would then be 2 weeks for the parties to attempt to form a government before a general election was mandated. In this time frame, they would defenestrate Theresa May and select a new leader.

The significant problems with this plan are:

1) No guarantee that Theresa May would not Cling-on like a limpet on Noah’s Ark to seek the survival of her Globalist ideology.

2) There wouldn’t be time for the Conservative Party to go through the process of consulting the members around the country on the leadership choice, and the parliamentary party are majority Remainers anyway, so the result could be another Remainer Prime Minister to continue the circus.
It looks to me as if No Deal is going to take place by default on March 29th, the various shenanigans by the EU, Her Majesty's Government, and the British Parliament notwithstanding.

UPDATE: No Deal announced tonight?
The British political journalists that were on their way to Brussels on the Eurostar for tomorrow’s EU council meeting are apparently scrambling to get back to London for an announcement in Downing Street at 8pm GMT. Others are being told to cancel their dinner plans.

Note that this will be after the 1922 committee meeting of Conservative Party backbenchers that she has been politely invited (read: ordered) to attend. That probably starts at about 6pm, although last time it started at 5pm.

There are reports that Macron has refused any extension, although Juncker is prepared to allow up to 22 May, the day before the Euro parliament elections. The Elysée has however stated that, “No decision will be taken by France before the European council”. Hopefully French intransigence can save Britain from Theresa May’s dithering, and we can have a rousing chorus of La Marseillaise.

UPDATE: It looks like a General Election is going to be announced. The bookies have suspended betting on one.

Labels: ,

64 Comments:

Blogger Dave Dave March 20, 2019 10:19 AM  

With the Speaker's ruling, May's chances of another vote are totally shattered. The chances of another extension are also low. Neither the EU or the UK want an extension. The entire parliament is fed up with May, and the voting population hates her. Next Friday, the odds are that they're out of the EU and May is out of office.

Blogger artensoll March 20, 2019 10:27 AM  

God willing.

Blogger Andrew Brown March 20, 2019 10:28 AM  

What are the chances the EU will allow an extension?

Blogger Nate March 20, 2019 10:31 AM  

God Make it So

Blogger stevev March 20, 2019 10:35 AM  

I don't trust that the EU, or the Remainers, for that matter, don't want an extension. It's a long way to the 29th yet.

Blogger artensoll March 20, 2019 10:41 AM  

The Remainers may want one but not the EU as it doesn't want us involved in the upcoming elections.

Blogger Dominik K. March 20, 2019 10:42 AM  

Read that May is pleading EU to extent Brexit till June. But how could then the UK not take part in the elections in May for EU parliament?

But I still hope for a clean no deal Brexit in a few days...I would celebrate!

Blogger Garuna March 20, 2019 10:42 AM  

The depth of Theresa May's shamelessness is really something to behold. Or maybe the globos just have some solid blackmail material on her.

Blogger LZ March 20, 2019 10:49 AM  

I read that she wants a "long" extension. To June only delays the inevitable. Even France said they'll vote no on a short extension.

Blogger James Dixon March 20, 2019 10:50 AM  

> It looks to me as if No Deal is going to take place by default on March 29th, the various shenanigans by the EU, Her Majesty's Government, and the British Parliament notwithstanding.

I'd say that's certainly the way to bet. Parliament has already said they're done voting on the exit deal and I don't see a unanimous agreement to extend the negotiations by the EU in the cards. I've been wrong before though.

Blogger Longtime Lurker March 20, 2019 10:51 AM  

Godspeed Brexit.

Blogger Tars Tarkusz March 20, 2019 10:55 AM  

If there is one thing you can always count on the elite to support, it's the status quo. This opposition to Brexit is retarded. The only reason they are doing it is to uphold the status quo. One thing I do find odd is while they do lose some power in Europe, they gain power in Britain. I also find it odd that they are choosing to make themselves look like buffoons, rather than making themselves look hard as nails. Presumably they want to make leaving the EU as painful as possible to send a message to any European nation that is feeling froggy.

Blogger Teleros March 20, 2019 11:02 AM  

It looks to me as if No Deal is going to take place by default on March 29th, the various shenanigans by the EU, Her Majesty's Government, and the British Parliament notwithstanding.

Certainly hope so. Just crossing my fingers that someone in the EU votes against an extension, and then that the Remoaner traitors don't vote for her deal before the 29th. I'll be speaking to my MP soon about all these shenanigans - not sure it'll do much good, but beats sitting idly by.

Blogger Jack March 20, 2019 11:04 AM  

Why would the brexit supporters want May out? She's driving the boat to a no deal brexit and her incompetence will get the blame for the temporary downsides of that.

Blogger Deranged March 20, 2019 11:12 AM  

*Presumably they want to make leaving the EU as painful as possible to send a message to any European nation that is feeling froggy.*

This tactic could be utilized to increase the stability of the EU


Maybe their hoping UK would want to join back into the EU after a few years of economic contraction.

Blogger SemiSpook37 March 20, 2019 11:16 AM  

The EU has said they will extend the deadline if...and only if...May can guarantee she can get a deal passed within Parliament. Given the fact that there have been several votes defeating such deals, it's pretty much over at this point.

As we expected.

This creature just can't seem to take the hint.

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother March 20, 2019 11:18 AM  

Deranged,

If the no deal Brexit occurs, and the UK is on it's own, a "special relationship" trade deal with the US will ensure Britain never looks back.

Blogger Matrick March 20, 2019 11:31 AM  

As much as I'm in favour of Brexit (and I voted for it), I can't help but think that we're better off with the people feeling angry and betrayed. The replacement of the British people will continue regardless of what happens next week.
That's how I'll look at the result of a brexit betrayal, if that comes to pass.

Blogger xevious2030 March 20, 2019 11:33 AM  

Why wouldn’t the Remainers (or EU) extend for the next 1,000 years, if it was what it took to keep the UK in the EU? Actual question. The following is comment, but the question stands above it.

The Remainers want to keep the UK in the EU, regardless of means. The current strategy seems to keep the ball in play until demographics change, education creates a new generation that is supportive of Remain, until the public gets so fatigued they throw up their hands and say they aren’t paying attention, or until Parliament is changed enough for the Remain/new Remain vote to go through. As May is a Remainer, and votes have been pretty resounding at keeping her in, the votes against deals seem political nonsense to buy time, considering the non-binding support for never leave without a deal was as great as it was. Based on the non-binding support, a May out would seem to be another Remainer/(another onetime) stealth Remainer in. It’s been over 70 years in the making, these people don’t just give up because of a little turbulence. Perhaps to have a hard enough landing to force back in, but that is a card that would be played if the public tide surged against them at some future date, a backup plan.

Blogger Jack March 20, 2019 11:44 AM  

one of the things overlooked in your comment is the fact that the ultimate authority in the UK is not the politicians but the Queen.

Blogger Teleros March 20, 2019 11:51 AM  

xevious2030 wrote:Why wouldn’t the Remainers (or EU) extend for the next 1,000 years, if it was what it took to keep the UK in the EU?

Aside from the possibility of blood in the streets, many of them want a shot at power or to get re-elected. It's one thing to be a Remoaner & vote against a clean Brexit when your constituents were pro-Brexit - at least then you can argue that you honestly believe a clean Brexit to be so disastrous a deal NEEDS to happen. But it's another matter entirely to be in the same position but to vote to extend A50 indefinitely.

xevious2030 wrote:The current strategy seems to keep the ball in play until demographics change, education creates a new generation that is supportive of Remain, until the public gets so fatigued they throw up their hands and say they aren’t paying attention, or until Parliament is changed enough for the Remain/new Remain vote to go through.

The polls seem to show the public becoming increasingly pro-Brexit and pro-WTO terms as well. They don't have enough time to do what you're suggesting here, and they lack the courage of their convictions in most cases - meaning they won't want to sacrifice their careers (and maybe lives) to win. Treasonous May might - she's the PM so she's got all sorts of job offers lined up, but it's different for backbenchers and mere shadow cabinet members etc.

Blogger JD Curtis March 20, 2019 11:52 AM  

Macron 'could refuse Article 50 extension

Blogger James Dixon March 20, 2019 12:19 PM  

> Hopefully French intransigence can save Britain from Theresa May’s dithering, and we can have a rousing chorus of La Marseillaise.

If it happens, it will be the greatest gift the French have given the British in a couple of centuries. And the best thing is Macron probably thinks he's hurting Britain by doing it.

Blogger Azimus March 20, 2019 12:24 PM  

Lets hope its La Marseillaise and not Ode to Joy.

Blogger Bert Head March 20, 2019 12:29 PM  

The UK government lacked the competence to renegotiate terms to avoid a referendum. Then they lacked the competence to rig the referendum despite the full , unconstitutional , weight of the government behind remain. Then they lacked the competence to deliver a leaving plan. Now it looks likely that they lack the competence to organise a delay.

When we leave by default on the 29th., I will be having a piss up, not organised by the government. I will be ignoring the government drinking advice on the bottles.

Blogger Steve March 20, 2019 12:35 PM  

Reports in this morning’s press are that there are several Brexiteer ministers on their way to Downing Street to tell Theresa May to get out.

Can't see anything like this in the UK press.

Again, the Brexit Insider produces a startling scoop (he previously claimed the No Deal and Referendum 2 votes were cancelled).

The British establishment is determined to remain in the EU (whether under the Fake Brexit guise favoured by May or the blatant cancellation of democracy supported by more hardline Eurocollaborators) at any cost.

If we get out now, it'll be through luck or divine providence.

Blogger Johnny March 20, 2019 12:38 PM  

Hey England, get it over with already. Long goodbyes are no fun. Get it over with. Leave.

Blogger James Dixon March 20, 2019 12:46 PM  

> Long goodbyes are no fun.

Fun, no. But they can make for good reading: https://www.amazon.com/Long-Goodbye-Novel-Philip-Marlowe-ebook/dp/B000FC1J58

This may be no exception.

> If we get out now, it'll be through luck or divine providence.

Never discount the latter.

Blogger seeingsights March 20, 2019 12:56 PM  

There is a rumor that Farage is talking with Salvini, to get Italy to vote for no extension. I hope so!

This also shows that May is either inept or a saboteur. A few months ago the EU pursued action against Hungary. A clever PM would have met the the leaders of Hungary, Italy, Poland and say: i will back your side against the EU, in return you help me with Brexit.

Blogger seeingsights March 20, 2019 1:02 PM  

Another reason I want to see a hard Brexit is to show how utterly wrong headed the predictions of bad stuff happening. The predictions of bad consequences of a hard Brexit cone not only from politicians but also from some economists.

They are Deep State hacks.

Blogger MendoScot March 20, 2019 1:08 PM  

At this point, it's all theatre.

The fix has been in since the first post-referendum EU summit.

Now we'll see whether the elites gambled well, or overplayed their hand.

Blogger VFM Bear March 20, 2019 1:22 PM  

O/T but how about that Senegalese-Italian setting that bus full of schoolkids on fire?

Something tells me that the puclic reaction to that in Italy will be slightly different than that in the U.S.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-20/ill-carry-out-massacre-bus-full-italian-children-set-fire-senegalese-born-driver

Blogger xevious2030 March 20, 2019 1:54 PM  

@21 Thanks. And there is the point of #20.

Blogger James Dixon March 20, 2019 2:04 PM  

> And there is the point of #20.

Yes. The Queen could simply suspend Parliament and force a hard Brexit. I don't think she'll do so, but that's always a possibility. It's obvious she favors Brexit.

Blogger Azimus March 20, 2019 2:09 PM  

So they're trying the "keep voting til you get it right" strategy? Or is this good news?

Blogger Jonathon Davies March 20, 2019 2:12 PM  

I would be very surprised if there was a general election. Both parties would be badly hit in leave areas.

Blogger Xellos March 20, 2019 2:27 PM  

Azimus wrote:So they're trying the "keep voting til you get it right" strategy? Or is this good news?

General election is good news, a chance for traitors to get voted out. Second referendum would be bad news.

seeingsights wrote:A clever PM would have met the the leaders of Hungary, Italy, Poland and say: i will back your side against the EU, in return you help me with Brexit.

Okay, but she doesn't want to hang herself from a doorknob.

Blogger Jack March 20, 2019 2:31 PM  

I don't understand how a general election solves anythinng. They can't hold an election by March 29.

Blogger SDaly March 20, 2019 2:37 PM  

@38 I understand that the EU will grant a longer extension if there is reason to think that Brexit could be cancelled, i.e., second referendum or a new government.

Blogger Dave March 20, 2019 3:18 PM  

Bar chart races are cool. Watch the great sustained rise and then fall of London as one of the world's most populous cities from 1500 to present. Surprised at the duration and multiple times Naples is in the top 10 early on.

https://www.ft.com/video/83703ffe-cd5c-4591-9b4f-a3c087aa6d19?playlist-name=latest&playlist-offset=0

Tips on producing your own bar chart race here: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1107552594921164800

Blogger Ryan March 20, 2019 4:08 PM  

here's a good video on the EU vs Europe/Western Civilization:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzRkBmP6iIw

Blogger Franz Lyonheart March 20, 2019 4:52 PM  

So, that was it? That was that dramatic statement by Treason May? She just regurgitated all the stuff she's been croaking about in parliament throughout the whole day. Very anti climactic, very Meh.

Blogger Jack March 20, 2019 4:58 PM  

Actually, I think she said some important things that are subtle. She said she regrets not being able to leave with a deal on March 29th. She didn't rule out leaving without a deal on March 29th. She said there's three options: deal, no deal, no Brexit. And she ruled out option 3.

Blogger Steve March 20, 2019 5:07 PM  

It doesn't matter what Theresa May says. The noises her mouth makes have no relationship with things that actually happen.

Blogger tublecane March 20, 2019 5:33 PM  

I just wanna know, when May quit quits will she thank homos like Cameron, will she move on to trannies, or have we finally arrived at pedos? Or are the decent values of the British people and their democratic system best represented by some new perversion I haven't even heard of?

Blogger Jack March 20, 2019 5:37 PM  

All May has to do to achieve no deal brexit is to not revoke Article 50. She's been fairly clear that won't happen. The rest of this is just show.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd March 20, 2019 6:46 PM  

Jack wrote:All May has to do to achieve no deal brexit is to not revoke Article 50. She's been fairly clear that won't happen. The rest of this is just show.

So, why the show? Is she a brilliant, pro-Brexit N-dimensional chess player cleverly misdirecting everyone while she pretends to be a closet Remainer? Did she imagine she could steer some middle course and be everyone's hero, and fail? Or is she just an incompetent, affirmative action retard?

If she's a retard, Formerly Great Britain needs better retards. I'd expect even Maxine Waters to exhibit a higher grade of low cleverness and animal cunning.

Blogger John Best March 20, 2019 6:52 PM  

Great another general election. Wonderful, fantastic. Up the DUP!!!!!!!!!!

Blogger James Dixon March 20, 2019 6:54 PM  

> I'd expect even Maxine Waters to exhibit a higher grade of low cleverness and animal cunning.

You'd be wrong.

> Did she imagine she could steer some middle course and be everyone's hero, and fail?

Yes. She didn't understand that there was no way for her to succeed. She's a political creature and is used to playing the political games. She didn't understand that the EU considered Britain leaving a betrayal and had no intention of allowing a political compromise. It was always going to be a deal that inflicted the most pain and control possible on Britain or a no deal Brexit.

Blogger 1st Earl Hardwicke March 20, 2019 7:07 PM  

Well it's only been 35 years+ odd of people wanting to get out of the "Common Market". Watching "Threads"(1984) a nuclear drama documentary). It's mentioned, just a bit before the bomb goes off, a bit amusing. A few more indoctrinated and it would have been game over as far as pleading goes.

I think if they can get other countries to sign an extension, they will. No idea how the mechanism works, I reckon they'll bribe, to keep the UK in, and paying their pensions. Or backstab in the months that follow with BRINO. Unless the Nationalist Italian guy is solid...

Blogger Trinian March 20, 2019 7:45 PM  

Jack wrote:one of the things overlooked in your comment is the fact that the ultimate authority in the UK is not the politicians but the Queen.


The Queen of England may have 'de jure' authority, but Parliament has 'de facto' authority.

In the 17th Century (before the US existed) England had a vigorous struggle over this issue. Many battles were fought. One King of England got his head chopped off. Another King abandoned England and fled to France. The forces of Parliament decisively won the struggle. English monarchs have been largely figureheads ever since.

Blogger tc March 20, 2019 8:01 PM  

If you are her subject, remind miss May to what her duties are...and pleez lads, subscibe to Pewds!

Blogger John Best March 20, 2019 8:01 PM  

@51 The forces of evil lost the struggle, until they put a German on the throne. It wasn't until the 1830's that Parliament started to take power from the Aristocracy and Church of England. Also the issue they were struggling over was Anglican vs Puritan, Aristocracy vs Merchant class. It was nothing to do with politics or Parliament. It was about attacking God and expanding the Empire.

Blogger Jack March 20, 2019 8:18 PM  

This is mostly true, but we're dealing with a deadlocked Parliament with a popular vote, Royal authority, and prior legislation in favor of Brexit. In the end, the PM is subject to the control of the Queen in this situation because the Queen can pull her or not and there isn't enough time for Parliament to do anything about it.

Blogger DonReynolds March 20, 2019 9:34 PM  

It is times like these that remind me of what Winston Churchill said about Americans.

To paraphrase....Ultimately, the Americans always do the right thing, but only AFTER they have tried absolutely every other possibility.

A simple referendum on leaving the EU was just not enough for Her Majesty's Government...and be done with it. They had to wade through a swamp of excuses and maybe's and pretended indifference for YEARS. Like a distracted stroll home, detoured by every least-interesting robin or squirrel or imagined flower, twirling the umbrella and wondering why no one else was out walking in the rain. Passive aggressive? My God, they invented it!

If Teresa May is flushed out of Downing Street (and her party falls from power), then perhaps March 29th will be a two-fer. It is a shame that the Conservatives thought that Brexit was the hill they wanted to die on. My only concerns at this point is what party will likely take their place? Do they actually believe that the new party is good for Britain?

Blogger DonReynolds March 20, 2019 9:56 PM  

I vow to thee, my country, all earthly things above,
Entire and whole and perfect, the service of my love;
The love that asks no questions, the love that stands the test,
That lays upon the altar, the dearest and the best;
The love that never falters, the love that pays the price,
The love that makes undaunted the final sacrifice.
And there's another country, I've heard of long ago,
Most dear to them that love her, most great to them that know;
We may not count her armies, we may not see her King;
Her fortress is a faithful heart, her pride is suffering;
And soul by soul and silently her shining bounds increase,
And her ways are ways of gentleness and all her paths are peace.

Blogger Jack Amok March 21, 2019 12:50 AM  

Brexit will happen whether Theresa May or Theresa May Not.

Blogger Damaris Tighe March 21, 2019 5:16 AM  

Despite my recognition of the monoparty, I have still been dismayed by the conduct of politicians over this referendum.

Brexit has been quite the public festival of treachery.

Blogger Anthony March 21, 2019 10:53 AM  

I'm beginning to think that May is winning at 4D chess here.

*Her* victory condition is staying on as PM. Nothing more, nothing less. She has two main risks - the Tories replacing her, or Corbyn. Keeping the Conservatives in line keeps Corbyn out. To keep the Remainders from defecting, she "negotiates". It would be nice if she could get a deal about the Irish border, but the rest is Kabuki. She doesn't need Parliament to accept the agreements, she needs Parliament to not toss her out. The Remainders won't if she negotiates, the Brexiteers won't if they can vote down whatever deal she brings back.

My prediction: hard Brexit on March 29, May still PM 60 days later. Maybe some sort of deal with Ireland on the border after a week of chair.

Blogger VFM #7634 March 21, 2019 12:11 PM  

"I'm beginning to think that May is winning at 4D chess here."

She did spend a lot of time talking to President Trump when he was over there, so there's that.

Blogger 1st Earl Hardwicke March 21, 2019 4:16 PM  

Trumps description of her as a "school mistress" is probably right. Tow the line, do nothing.

The national anthem should be "Vow to thee my country." or "Jerusalem." Would it kill the monarchy, to just call out the BS that's been going on. Instead of the generic rubbish Christmas speech. "Oghh my fellow peasants, times have been tough this year, but we must tighten our belts and pull together..."

Blogger artensoll March 21, 2019 4:34 PM  

@62 "Instead of the generic rubbish Christmas speech"

2 or 3 Christmases ago she said "Jesus Christ is MY King".

Blogger Azimus March 21, 2019 7:28 PM  

What was yesterday's announcement? Was it this 2 week delay?

Blogger 1st Earl Hardwicke March 21, 2019 7:40 PM  

@62 Does she believe it, or paying lip service? It comes with obligations.

Not being old enough to really see the changes. Only what I've seen heard for the last 10 years on the TV, plus some anecdotes. I remember my father mentioning my grandfather was annoyed at the amount of money that was spent so that princess Margret could have a "minor" on flowers.

A lot of farmers around where I live are near destitute paying rent on "The Queens land."(Land drained from "The Wash").

Kind of biased against the Monarchy reading a bit about my family history. Monarchs also have the habit going totally insane, and usually the Tory element that get's more involved as well. Probably unfair, to put so much a burden on a woman. The Duke of Edinburgh also nearly recently killed a younger mother and her baby. Where was his protection service? When is the speed limit ever so quickly changed and blamed. Driver error and state of mind, being more important than the speed.

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