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Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Color me dubious

This Reddit analysis strikes me more as revolution porn than a revelation of actual government wargaming analysis, but nevertheless, it appears to be generally correct with regards to the essentials:
The United States Government has extensively studied the concept of second American Civil War. Their conclusion is as follows: They don’t have a snowball’s chance in Hell of winning. The moment civil war is declared, the government loses. No scenario or outcome ends in their success. Period. It’s just a matter of how long it takes.

A longer analysis will follow, but here are the salient points.

30% of the American population will actively revolt.

This alone is enormous and damning. Historically, you only need 10% of the population to actively participate in a rebellion to successfully overthrow the establishment: We only had 15% of the population actively attempting to throw out the British during the Revolutionary War; roughly 70% of what remained was neutral and simply stood by. By contrast, 30% of Americans in modern America would support a revolution to stop their own government if it happened tomorrow That’s how discontent the people are and how much the people don’t support the government.

The government would need infrastructure more than rebels would.

Already working with significant handicaps, the establishment would need electricity, access to the Internet, bridges, and airports to coordinate any active campaign against the rebellion. By contrast, the rebellion can work in the dark. Considering how easy it would be to sabotage US infrastructure, one of the first things the rebellion would do is collapse bridges, destroy, or seize power plants, and cover the Interstate in IEDs. This is relatively simple to accomplish, and it would inflict enormous damage on the establishment’s ability to restore order. It would also cost an enormous amount of time and effort to fix any sabotage, because the establishment would need to provide military protection to any workers attempting to rebuild, which is a drain their active fighting personnel resources that they could not afford.
It would certainly make for an interesting wargame design challenge. And it also is in harmony with what we know of the Clinton adminstration's study of the various militia groups and the government's inability to suppress them. As a general rule, there is very, very little that governments can do about 4GW insurrections; a government that lacks the ability to suppress illegal organizations such as MS-13 and the Gulf Cartel isn't going to be able to do much about ideological rebels either.

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162 Comments:

Blogger Clint June 18, 2019 1:08 PM  

There is a video breakdown, as well, using this same info from Reddit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJh7Ye1Qvc8&fbclid=IwAR2uH-y2e5Vu5NczkUmy1Lpa81J7pSKez-PSQYv0hUVjVakul1ZNIBJ-d2g

Blogger Mister Excitement June 18, 2019 1:12 PM  

@1 You and I are on the same wavelength.

Anyway, the reddit post and the video are both the same info. the "prepper" community has been talking about for years.

There's an entire genre of fiction about this subject on Amazon, and every book plays out very similar as the reddit post describes.

Blogger binks webelf June 18, 2019 1:15 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Michael West June 18, 2019 1:20 PM  

"The moment civil war is declared..."

Why would anyone bother declaring it? That's so 1GW, putting a big ol' target so the other side knows where to aim.

Blogger Noah B. June 18, 2019 1:24 PM  

For most Americans a civil war would simply be a matter of survival. The challenges for urbanities in getting clean water and food while disposing of waste are huge and most people haven't given this any thought. Even among preppers the tendency is to acquire gear and just hope that they won't run into any unforeseen problems. So I don't think that 30% of Americans would have the potential to fight in any effective capacity, assuming they even wanted to. But overwhelming the government today wouldn't require that much resistance. 1% could do it easily today.

Blogger Balam June 18, 2019 1:24 PM  

Considering 4GW I'd say Reddit understates how bad it would be for the gov. They didn't even mention racial groups and tensions, La Raza or the Black gangs or muslims or the Chinese stirring things up. Lincoln could smash the south and expect white Christians to live together after but if Mexico/La Raza actively took a south state would the US government prioritize that, fighting rednecks, protecting supply chains to the elites, subduing black rioters and it goes on and on.

Blogger Barbarossa June 18, 2019 1:25 PM  

Any time you see a statement like "the US government has extensively studied" be wary. The US government doesn't do studies. CENTCOM J-5 does studies. The Office of the Secretary of Defense does studies. The Army War College does studies. The Marshall European Center for Strategic Studies does studies. Who would the author of said study be? Who would have requested such an analysis? NORTHCOM would be the most likely (only?) combatant command candidate, but that's playing with fire. Of the rogue swamp agencies, one would suspect NSA before FBI, but how does such a study if it actually exists reach the light of day, given that the conclusions revealed would bolster defiance of the Beltway as opposed to crushing it?

Not that the assertions are incorrect, but, as our host suggested, most likely revolution porn.

Blogger Longtime Lurker June 18, 2019 1:27 PM  

"A government that lacks the ability to suppress illegal organizations such as MS-13 and the Gulf Cartel isn't going to be able to do much about ideological rebels either."

Which is why deplatforming "right wingers" is the ultimate in tempting fate.

Blogger binks webelf June 18, 2019 1:29 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Patrick Kelly June 18, 2019 1:32 PM  

"Russia has already publicly stated that it will support any rebellion in the United States against the established government and will send troops and aid to support the resistance. "

I disbelieve.

Blogger Dr Caveman June 18, 2019 1:32 PM  

Not sure what to make of this.. in any given civil war scenario, a certain percentage of the population will support the sitting government while another percentage will oppose it.

Blogger Gallant June 18, 2019 1:32 PM  

But MS13 isn't challenging the domain of the US govt, and I'm pretty sure SJWs declared that it's not even PC to insult them any more. . . .

Blogger Rabid Ratel June 18, 2019 1:33 PM  

Going by Britain's experience in the Anglo-Boer war, you need approximately 100 active soldiers for every rebel. This will contain the rebels on large open plains. If they retreat to mountainous terrain, all bets are off.

That is the reason for all the calls for the confiscation of weapons, but bear this in mind - during the Anglo-Boer war all the Boers had the much superior Mauser rifle. By the time the 6000 Bitterenders laid down arms, they were using Lee Enfields, all recovered from British casualties and prisoners.

Like I told my (lawyer) sister, they would have to register, licence and track every rock, tool and kitchen implement to start ensuring people don't have access to weapons. We all know how easy that is.

Blogger Johnny June 18, 2019 1:34 PM  

Perhaps what we would see is not so much a new government, but a government that loses a good deal of control over its own population. A situation that resembles the criminal gangs in Mexico, or the no-go areas in Europe.

Things are so interdependent now that a general breakdown in order would produce enormous loss of live. The guess number for the body count in the event of an all out neutron bomb attack is around ninety percent of the population.

Blogger A rebel without a General June 18, 2019 1:41 PM  

I have been saying it for years the South is in the best position to secede since the civil war. Add all those factors and the fact the China, Russia, and Iran would all send support to any rebel group.

Blogger Robert Pinkerton June 18, 2019 1:43 PM  

As a reader of history for pleasure, I am the opposite of a systematic scholar. None the less, more than half a century of such reading convinces me that if ethnic conflict is superimposed upon social revolution, this brings out the absolute - anti-human apostasy from the human race - worst in people.

Blogger pyrrhus June 18, 2019 1:44 PM  

@11 <Not sure what to make of this.. in any given civil war scenario, a certain percentage of the population will support the sitting government while another percentage will oppose it.

The difference in America would be that everyone knows who most of the liberals are, and especially elected officials, and in a war to the knife, which this would be, those people (and their families) would be immediate targets..The same would go for LEOs who threw in their lot with the government....

Blogger swiftfoxmark2 June 18, 2019 1:45 PM  

a government that lacks the ability to suppress illegal organizations such as MS-13 and the Gulf Cartel

Who says the US government and those organizations aren't working together?

I'm fairly certain a MS-13 gang member murdered Seth Rich, for example.

Blogger Crew June 18, 2019 1:45 PM  

I have been saying it for years the South is in the best position to secede since the civil war.

I don't think CWII will be a North vs South thing.

Blogger 351wsl June 18, 2019 1:45 PM  

30% actively revolting is pure fantasy.
3% active with 30% sympathetic is probably closer to reality, and likely beyond what the government could contain.

Blogger James Dixon June 18, 2019 1:45 PM  

> Like I told my (lawyer) sister, they would have to register, licence and track every rock, tool and kitchen implement to start ensuring people don't have access to weapons. We all know how easy that is.

Even ignoring guns and knives, people vastly underestimate the effectiveness and ease of production of bows and crossbows. We've been making guns for hundreds of years now. We've been making bows for thousands.

Blogger pyrrhus June 18, 2019 1:47 PM  

@16....Yes, and in America ethnic conflict would be superimposed on political/regional conflict, which would be worse than the Spanish CW...

Blogger James Dixon June 18, 2019 1:49 PM  

> 30% actively revolting is pure fantasy.

Agreed. I doubt the military desertion rate of >50% is likely either.

But even 10% of either is probably enough to bring down the government.

Blogger Damelon Brinn June 18, 2019 1:55 PM  

I have a screencap of this from /pol/ dated in 2015. Always seemed pretty legit to me. Whenever leftists brag about how they're going to defeat the "rural retards" in the red states, they assume an intact military under their command, and usually help from the UN and/or EU. None of those expectations are reasonable.

Blogger Unknown June 18, 2019 2:02 PM  

Not to mention the numerous soldiers that would defect to the rebel side.

Blogger Noah B. June 18, 2019 2:06 PM  

Yes, and in America ethnic conflict would be superimposed on political/regional conflict, which would be worse than the Spanish CW...

Beyond the immediate needs of survival, looting, gang violence, political and interethnic conflict would probably be everyone's main concerns. The military wouldn't even be a major factor unless they did start using nukes.

Blogger James Dixon June 18, 2019 2:08 PM  

> Not to mention the numerous soldiers that would defect to the rebel side.

The greater concern will be former military that have retired or left the service. They have no easy way to keep an eye on them.

Blogger Damelon Brinn June 18, 2019 2:09 PM  

Why would anyone bother declaring [civil war]?

Right. A lot of conversations I see about it assume that one day civil war will be declared, and THEN this or that group will do such-and-such. But the war has already started. Someday historians will pick an event and mark it as the beginning, and that event probably hasn't happened yet, but the real thing isn't that tidy. BLM shooting cops was part of it. Cops pushing protesters into Antifa in Charlottesville was part of it. Leftists tearing down statues was part of it. It's not going to "start" one day; it's going to gradually get worse until cities are burning and National Guard troops are pulling back and letting them.

Blogger James Dixon June 18, 2019 2:10 PM  

> The military wouldn't even be a major factor unless they did start using nukes.

Assumptions that the won't are misplaced. Look at the things Lincoln did. If he'd had nukes, he'd have used them. The first priority of any rebel government should be securing any nukes in their area.

Blogger Jeff aka Orville June 18, 2019 2:21 PM  

@19 I have been saying it for years the South is in the best position to secede since the civil war.

I don't think CWII will be a North vs South thing.


You miss the point. Of course it won't be a north/south thing. What is up for grabs though is territory and who will control each once the fighting dies down.

Blogger ZhukovG June 18, 2019 2:30 PM  

The only interest I can see Russia, and for that matter China, having would be to ensure the American Nuclear Arsenal remains in responsible hands.

If the Washington Establishment can present itself as that responsible party, it is likely that Russia, China and the world in general will, if required, intervene on the side of the US Government.

At least in the beginning.

Once it becomes clear that the 'center will not hold', then they may start working with emerging Nation-States, such as CSA 2.0, Republic of California etc...

Blogger Longtime Lurker June 18, 2019 2:32 PM  

@21: One good 'ol boy with a hunting rifle can disrupt traffic on the nearby interstate at will, withdraw, then repeat the process as necessary until law enforcement runs itself ragged.

Blogger Robert What? June 18, 2019 2:36 PM  

The government has also lost all moral authority to claim the loyalties of the remaining 70 percent.

Blogger Jeff aka Orville June 18, 2019 2:39 PM  

Moarklahoma?

Blogger Gettimothy June 18, 2019 2:47 PM  

One war the neoconservatives will oppose

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother June 18, 2019 2:49 PM  

I'm sure any aid Russia or China sent would be looked upon poorly by anyone in Alabama, not to mention if Vlad helpfully sends some Spetznaz to Mobile.

Blogger Noah B. June 18, 2019 2:53 PM  

"Assumptions that the won't are misplaced. Look at the things Lincoln did. If he'd had nukes, he'd have used them."

Agreed. The only assumption in the "study" that's more absurd is that the media would report on the killings of American civilians as though it were a bad thing. CNN would be the military's biggest cheerleader if it were murdering white traditionalists.

Blogger xevious2030 June 18, 2019 3:06 PM  

Revolution porn. Who would start it, why, actual base of operations, concern for life, what is a win, global perspective. The assertions consider a face value situation, which is incorrect. They are treating the government as a single top level user, when it is a subroutine.

Blogger Rattlesnake_Kid June 18, 2019 3:06 PM  

They would only oppose US civil war if Israel felt the US was not of much further use to them. At that point, they would certainly flip to supporting US civil war as a means to remove a contender for power on the global stage.

Blogger Jeffrey Johnson June 18, 2019 3:32 PM  

I think that the original analysis has a lot of major holes in it. First of all the media wouldn't report on atrocities committed by the Federal Government. The media would be absolutely silent about any and all atrocities that the Feds committed. The media would be the government's biggest ally in maintaining their mutual power. Rebels would target the media's ability to get their propaganda out there probably with mixed success.

The second mistake that this analysis makes is that the government would just sit there and let their power collapse. The Federal Government could easily adopt a strategy of divide and rule. They could throw the gays and other degenerates under the bus because they are mostly big city dwellers and those guys wouldn't last long in a big conflict anyway. The Feds could then work to make allies with the various religious leaders and other important people. Some of these groups would ally with the Feds after the government ended their alliance with the homos.

On top of that the Federal Government, even in bankruptcy has lots of assets, such as oil and mineral concessions and lands to pass around. They could adopt some sort of semi feudal policy with private armies or the drug cartels to raise troops.

In any CWII scenario the Federal Government is going to be very powerful and difficult to beat.

Blogger Damelon Brinn June 18, 2019 3:36 PM  

The only assumption in the "study" that's more absurd is that the media would report on the killings of American civilians as though it were a bad thing.

Read it closer: "Every rebel killed on CNN would be spun as 'the US government killed X Civilians today in a strike' on foreign news and pirate media not owned by the government." (my emphasis) We could disagree on how effective those would be contrasted with the MSM cheerleading the government or burying the news. Since this was written in 2015 or earlier, it might be more optimistic about the power of alternative media than we would be today, but it's not saying CNN would sympathize with the rebels.

Blogger Winston Smith June 18, 2019 3:42 PM  

a government that lacks the ability to suppress illegal organizations such as MS-13 and the Gulf Cartel

"Muh conztitushunz" is why they cannot suppress MS13. If the SCOTUS went full on authoritarian and said "foreign gangs are outside of the Constitution and can be massacred by the Army and/or rounded up by DHS into concentration camps" the feds could have MS13 begging for mercy within 48 hours.

Assumptions that the won't are misplaced. Look at the things Lincoln did. If he'd had nukes, he'd have used them. The first priority of any rebel government should be securing any nukes in their area.

Bullshit. Most of the leading men on both sides, for all of their faults, were good Christian men. They'd never give, much less obey, an order that amounts to the indiscriminate and deliberate extermination of tens to hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians to terrorize the other side.

Blogger Winston Smith June 18, 2019 3:42 PM  

* None of that is meant to say the fundamental point about the feds being crippled in ability to stop a revolt is wrong. I agree with the main point.

Blogger Beardy Bear June 18, 2019 3:43 PM  

Much of this "data" seems arbitrary.

Blogger Jay in DC June 18, 2019 3:47 PM  

Just wanted to drop my .02 nodding to those who have pointed out that "30%" is comically high along with a double digit military desertion rate.

Consider: During 'Revolution War 1.0" we had an almost completely homogeneous society with very similar cultural norms, religion, backgrounds, etc.

I.E. The 'ties that bind' and the 'blood and soil' were both very very thick. We managed to get 3% out of that crop.

Now with Leroy, Shaniqua, Pedro, Juanita, Chen, and Bai we are going to get 30% among a population that is barely half European in origin anymore? Right...

The only plus side is that even if we break even at 3% like last time the fighting efficiency of big.gov is so sullied due to years of political striving and incompetence that we could probably break their back much quicker than most realize.

That part of the report "no outcome where they win" seems on the money to me, but at great cost to both sides however just like the first time. The Tree of Liberty is thirsty as fuck, innit?

Blogger tublecane June 18, 2019 3:52 PM  

@4- I don't imagine they meant that literally. Even the War of Northern Aggression had no declaration, after all. Though Lincoln's call for 75,000 troops is something of a declaration.

Blogger Tars Tarkas June 18, 2019 3:58 PM  

How anyone can look at the cops and the way they behave and think the cops will come down on the right side is a complete mystery to me.

Just yesterday I was watching video of a woman being tased on the side of the road after she wasn't grovelling hard enough and so the cops decided her car committed a crime. She was standing off of the road away (it was border patrol) from the 'papers please' road block and she refused to move and so the cop threw her on the ground and tased her repeatedly. The courts threw out her attempt to sue.
Just today I was a watching a video of a bunch of masked cops threatening a woman if she did not consent to a house search, they would come back with a warrant and kick her door in and how much easier things would go if she would just let them in.

People are denial about the fact that the US is a police state. They redefine police state so that we don't meet that definition. After all, it is a hell of a lot easier to just change the definition than to actually dismantle the police state.

Funny enough, but it is an anarcho-police state. The police and more and more, the system itself, simply will not protect you in the big cities. Murderers get 500 bail or are allowed to plea down and serve a few years. But real citizens who obey the law are targeted and held to every jot and tittle of the law.

Just the other day, a pack of like 10 black kids attacked a white kid trying to leave a pool. They attacked him from behind and soon as he went down, they all jumped on him. He had a knife and defended himself. The parents of the black kids flipped out and the kid got charged. But then the tape came out and the charges were dropped. During the course of defending himself against 10 assailants, he apparently called then n*ggers and he is now charged with a hate crime. This IS anarcotyranny.

The cops will justify anything they are told to do. The media would call us terrorists and white supremacists and it would work.

While the only hope America has is violence, that hope feeds on meager fare. The military and the police cannot be counted on. The gov has to lose the confidence of the military and the police before it is even a remote possibility that they would come to our side.

Blogger RandyB June 18, 2019 3:58 PM  

William Tecumseh Sherman would beg to differ.

Blogger SciVo June 18, 2019 4:04 PM  

In b4 someone accuses us of pining for war, my latest rant: Crazy/Stupid/Liars.

Blogger Theproductofafineeduction June 18, 2019 4:05 PM  

I agree with your initial suspicion Vox. I think I saw this same post ananlysis around the Chans many a year ago.

Even so, if this isn’t a larp then results aren’t surprising.

Now what I would like to seee, an analysis of a scenario where they (the feds) are faced with an insurrection in the cities but rural areas remain loyal to the government.

This is purely in the interest of balance and not out of any curiosity over scenarios that would involve the forcibly enforcing certain federal laws in certain urban centers that are most certainly not in a state of rebellion.

Blogger tublecane June 18, 2019 4:08 PM  

This reddit post is fatally incomplete, in that one must provide more stipulations about what exact scenarios have been run. Because it's not enough to say if we assume Civil War, then A, B, and C happen. Because there are countless circumstances under which civil wars occur, and there's no possible way that in every single one 30% of the people will be against the feds.

In our own Civil War, if but for a few turns of events maybe the Deep South alone secedes. Maybe no states secede. Maybe all the slave states secede. All of which could've happened. And that's assuming we have the general picture of North versus South upon the election of Lincoln.

Imagine you were simply informed there was going to be a regional conflict between states in the middle of the 19th century, one of which would have Washington on its side. You might guess it was a North/South thing. But would you be able to predict which states were on which side? How their respective populations felt about it? What the European powers would do? Which side individuals like Lee might take?

No. You almost certainly couldn't.

Blogger Theproductofafineeduction June 18, 2019 4:08 PM  

Especially when those soldiers that make up the actual pointed end of the spear are overwhelmingly on the right.

Blogger HouellebecqGurl June 18, 2019 4:10 PM  

Plenty of countries would be up for helping foment the downfall of the "Great Satan USA." Why wouldn't they is a better question.
A chance to run in and help the downfall, as well as staying to mop up any rewards. Look what happened when the USSR fell.

Blogger tublecane June 18, 2019 4:16 PM  

@42- I'm not certain Lincoln was a believer, much less Christian, though he talked like one later in his career. He was always on about Fate or Necessity or whatever in place of God.

Anyway, I don't like to think that warlords of the 1860s had yet regressed to barbarism like we. Then again, I don't like to think today's general American public supports terror bombing, either. But despite Dresden and Hiroshima/Nagasaki occasionally being controversial, it never bothered them enough.

Blogger Zander Stander June 18, 2019 4:19 PM  

The internet is forever. This cuts both ways, and could conceivably be a great source of evidence in an eventual reckoning.

Blogger Sam June 18, 2019 4:25 PM  

@42
"Bullshit. Most of the leading men on both sides, for all of their faults, were good Christian men. They'd never give, much less obey, an order that amounts to the indiscriminate and deliberate extermination of tens to hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians to terrorize the other side."

“Though it cost the blood of millions of white men, let it come. Let justice be done.” - John Quincy Adams

The abolitionists were insane. Guess who were the leading edge of Northern opinion?

Blogger James Dixon June 18, 2019 4:25 PM  

> Who would start it...

Who? Pretty much any of the current Democratic candidates, by announcing an attempt to confiscate semiautomatic weapons. That is the quickest way to make sure it starts.

> Most of the leading men on both sides, for all of their faults, were good Christian men.

I see RandyB has already made the appropriate response to that assertion.

> Now what I would like to seee, an analysis of a scenario where they (the feds) are faced with an insurrection in the cities but rural areas remain loyal to the government.

That one's easy. The government cuts the interstate, rail, and water supplies to the cities; then starves them out.

Blogger Zander Stander June 18, 2019 4:30 PM  

This is the paradox of asymmetric warfare: it is a winning strategy for R- selected populations, a losing strategy for k- selected populations. The hard right is by definition k-selected, so I would advise against any civil war fantasies.

Blogger JAG June 18, 2019 4:31 PM  

Winston Smith wrote:a government that lacks the ability to suppress illegal organizations such as MS-13 and the Gulf Cartel

"Muh conztitushunz" is why they cannot suppress MS13. If the SCOTUS went full on authoritarian and said "foreign gangs are outside of the Constitution and can be massacred by the Army and/or rounded up by DHS into concentration camps" the feds could have MS13 begging for mercy within 48 hours.

Assumptions that the won't are misplaced. Look at the things Lincoln did. If he'd had nukes, he'd have used them. The first priority of any rebel government should be securing any nukes in their area.

Bullshit. Most of the leading men on both sides, for all of their faults, were good Christian men. They'd never give, much less obey, an order that amounts to the indiscriminate and deliberate extermination of tens to hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians to terrorize the other side.


A "good Christian man" does not pursue policies that result in well more than half a million deaths of Americans.

He was the most evil piece of crap to ever darken the halls of American political power.

Blogger Dirk Manly June 18, 2019 4:36 PM  

@54

"@42- I'm not certain Lincoln was a believer, much less Christian, though he talked like one later in his career. He was always on about Fate or Necessity or whatever in place of God. "


It looks like Lincoln was Jewish.

Lincoln, England, was noted as a city of Jews in the middle ages.

After Sherman banned Jewish merchants in the Western Theater of Operations from following closely to his army army while on the move (he ordered them removed something like 50 or 100 miles from the front, because they were taking unfair advantage of the mayhem which was always in the wake of a field army on the move in those days).

Jewish leaders went to Lincoln to get him to rescind Sherman's order. Lincoln did so, and told them, "... my flesh is of your flesh, and my bone is of your bone."

Miles W. Mathis has a very interesting paper on the Lincoln Assassination Hoax. All of the people whose behavior doesn't make any sense if the story we've been told were true... turns out they're all Jews. Including Mary Todd, and cousin, who was the curiously absent body guard...who then weeks later was assisting Mary in packing up the household goods to take back to Springfield.



http://www.mileswmathis.com/lincoln.pdf

Blogger Dirk Manly June 18, 2019 4:40 PM  

@58

"This is the paradox of asymmetric warfare: it is a winning strategy for R- selected populations, a losing strategy for k- selected populations. The hard right is by definition k-selected, so I would advise against any civil war fantasies."

You do realize, don't you, that the English colonists living on the Atlantic Seaboard of North America were k-selected.

Blogger Dirk Manly June 18, 2019 4:46 PM  

Currently, the R-selected population is concentrated in cities, in which they are very vulnerable to simply cutting off the electric grid and severing interstate-quality highways.

Even 50% depopulated Detroit, even if there were no suburbs, and the borders were lined with farmers' fields on the other side, would be extremely vulnerable. Not enough highway capacity. Especially with hunting-rifle-equipped snipers taking a huge toll from places of cover and concealment along whatever traffic arteries remain.

10x if the isolation kicks off during the winter, expecially during a cold snap. Attacking power substations is easy. Now the gas can't be pumped from the gas stations' tanks.

Mad Max: Winter Freeze.

Blogger Sherlock June 18, 2019 4:47 PM  

Forgive me for being so simple... wouldn't the winner be the group that God has blessed?

Blogger Dirk Manly June 18, 2019 4:50 PM  

As for the idea that Lincoln was Christian:

He is noted for having remarked, while leaving a just-complete church service, in which the Gospel was preached, "I'm not convinced."

And again, his roots probably go back to Lincoln, England, a town noted for being overrun with Jews for centuries.
Abraham.

And it's well established that Mary Todd's family was Jewish on both sides.

Blogger steb June 18, 2019 4:51 PM  

"we predicted that at least 10,000 people would die of starvation if the war was not finished in a year."

This seems like a weird number. I'd be interested to see how they reached it. If food supplies get cut off from cities, a lot more than 10,000 people are going to starve to death, and in a lot less than a year.

In a few places it mentions Russian assistance as if it was an unqualified good for the rebels. Realistically, that seems like the one thing likely to make it fail: if the government could make an appeal to American patriotism by claiming that the rebels were an advance force for Russia, who would conquer the USA if they won, the rebellion would lose all public support.

It's all empty theory though. California might secede if the Republicans pull off a few more election wins, but the days when Texas might secede must have passed by now. America's future is just a long decline. The power might start going out, and old diseases might come back, but I can't imagine anyone taking up arms about it.

Blogger Leahn Novash June 18, 2019 4:59 PM  

They will not. (((neo conservatives))) have been aiming to switch countries for a while now, expecting the US to break down. They tried to get cozy with China and failed but then cozied up to Brazil and succeeded since the two most influential people on the country today (RP Jair Bolsonaro and Olavo de Carvalho) are declared zionists. They will flee to Brazil while the US burns.

Blogger steb June 18, 2019 5:02 PM  

Also, if a nuclear submarine went rogue and threatened to nuke DC, how long would it take for every crew member's family to be arrested for treason and imprisoned within the blast radius?

Blogger Stilicho June 18, 2019 5:14 PM  

Vlad can send as many RPGs as he likes. We'll even take AK's and ammo, but don't need them as much.

Blogger cpenn June 18, 2019 5:18 PM  

#63 - which God would that happen to be?

Blogger anorganicbear June 18, 2019 5:27 PM  

@57: Do you really think gun confiscation will ignite a civil war? I mean, after South Africa, it's the only logical response to such a policy. Looking at how the cities and blue states have failed to react to such confiscations, I simply lack faith that my countrymen would risk their lives to protect this final remaining freedom. Seems most would rather hope that the boulder running downhill through time just doesn't squash them specifically.

Blogger DonReynolds June 18, 2019 5:30 PM  

Yes, the American Revolution of 1775-83 was as much a civil war, as a revolt against British rule, and a secession, made possible by a declaration of independence.

During the eight years of war, the Patriots never had the support of more than a quarter of the population and very often it was less than a quarter.

The Loyalists continued to support the British Crown and existing government in Parliament, raised and supported more troops, and had the support of more than a quarter of the population.

Roughly half the population supported neither the Patriot cause nor the Loyalist cause and just prayed to Heaven to be able to stay completely out of it, and maybe make a buck or two selling supplies to the British. They were the only buyers willing to pay with real money, often gold coin.

Were it to happen today or soon, I suspect it would shake out much the same way. The 30 percent rebels sounds pretty normal until the "sunshine Patriots" quit and go home, then it will be more like the 20-25 percent needed to win.

Thirty percent of 340 million people is an enormous group, roughly equal to the entire population of the modern Confederate eleven states.

But there is an implied assumption in such a war-game, which should not be assumed away. The planners probably assumed that the anti-government rebels would be on the Right and not the Left. That cannot be assumed without explanation. Leftist New England has always threatened secession in US history and the Leftists today are at least as violent and radical as they ever were.

People on the Right are more likely to back the government, support the troops, support law enforcement, wave the flag, and stand for the anthem. These are not rebels and they are reluctant to support violent overthrow of their government in order to impose their own new agenda. The Right WOULD make excellent counter-revolutionaries, as was the case in the Spanish Civil War of the 1930s, where the rebels fought to restore the historic nation against the new Leftist communist, socialist, anarchist government. That may be similar to the situation that plays out in the USA.

Blogger Archella June 18, 2019 5:31 PM  

Anyone play MB's Fortress America back in the day? It's all fun and games until those partisans show up and start cutting off your supply lines.

Blogger DonReynolds June 18, 2019 5:43 PM  

351wsl wrote:30% actively revolting is pure fantasy.

3% active with 30% sympathetic is probably closer to reality, and likely beyond what the government could contain.


Agreed.
A mere 3 percent is still over 10 million active combatants, scattered over fifty states and dense in very many. This would be beyond the capability of the US military to contain and defeat.

Blogger Crew June 18, 2019 5:45 PM  

Whao. The Lincoln Assassination Hoax. Is there no hoax they will not engage in?

Blogger MightyKevster June 18, 2019 5:56 PM  

I think CW2 will be incredibly short, based mostly on two criteria: morale and logistics.
Concerning Logistics: When the cultural cold war goes hot, the cities and population centers will be the first to fold and suffer massive casualties (for reasons nearly all analysts agree upon). The practical effect of this would be the near total destruction of the globalist base of support (read, NPCs). No matter the number of guns or 'soldiers' nationalists claim, most of the enemy casualties will come from the unsustainable geographic position held by their enemies.
Concerning Morale: When the cultural cold war goes hot, it will almost certainly be the result of globalists pushing nationalists into a political corner. When your choices are submit or fight...well... Globalists will be fighting for control. Nationalists will be fighting for survival.

Blogger Dirk Manly June 18, 2019 6:00 PM  

Crew -- read the paper.
I've always been bothered by many of the details of the Lincoln Assassination story -- (such as, "Why didn't they take him to a hospital at any time between the shooting and his death?"). Mathis shows that the story is even more ridiculous than I imagined.

See also his papers on the Tate murders (also a hoax) and the OJ murders

http://mileswmathis.com/tate.pdf



http://mileswmathis.com/oj.pdf

Blogger Martin Marprelate June 18, 2019 6:03 PM  

At least Brazil is already a mess so they can’t make it much worse.

Blogger Goose June 18, 2019 6:08 PM  

If you want at the truth about CWI. I have a read for you "My Three Years with Quantrill's Raiders". It is available at the Library of Congress on line to read for free. There was a much more savage war than you read in the so called history books. We are better at it today so be careful where you want to go.

To win we (the right) would have to rely upon the military to look outwards and avoid becoming involved in internal struggles. If we got really graced they would rally to the current POTUS and ignore the congress and the judiciary.

But all of this supposition is more like 5 card draw where jokers, deuces, jacks and sevens are wild.

And for your revolutionary edification take a couple of over the road tractors full of fuel (+- 400 gallons of diesel and set them on fire under an overpass they will burn hot enough to weaken the steel and bring the bridge down - so there. As Casey said look it up!

Blogger Dave June 18, 2019 6:16 PM  

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Blogger Pyro Smith June 18, 2019 6:17 PM  

I lean to the >50% defection rate for the military. But the defections will be fractal.

I was in a State Guard Unit and we were on our yearly field exercise the day our local congress person was shot.
We were in an information vacuum and the assumptions that were made by the enlisted were eye opening.
It was taken for granted that it was a right wing patriot that killed a swamp rat and the war had kicked off. We had our weapons and ammo and we were just waiting for the order to deploy to take out the rest of the swamp. Every single one of us were ready for a full blown military coup. If an officer had stepped up and said “we are going to D.C.” there would have been cheers and no one would have hesitated. It was surreal. So many people revealed their power level that day. It was habbening. Finally.
And the next day when it was a crazy nut on or off his meds and it turns into a gun control grab. Biggest case of blue balls and everyone just pretended the conversations of the previous day never happened.

I assume if anything kicks off the Guard units will defect at almost 100%. Big army will depend on the officers over each unit. Large numbers of O-1 to O-3 will leave with most of their units and equipment. Fewer O-4 to O-6 but still significant. And very few in the upper ranks will leave but there will be a similar Urban vs Rural split.

And as for the major Military bases in CONUS. A very large amount of the technical support and maintenance roles are performed by ex-mil civilian contractors. Most of these people will defect, resist passively, or just call in sick. Hard to maintain air superiority when the maintenance teams shrink significantly.

Blogger JohnofAustria June 18, 2019 6:21 PM  

A revolution by an armed and intelligent populace would absolutely wreck our government.

The biggest key is understanding that having a completely safe and untouchable logistics base of our home country guarded by 2 oceans is the only thing that enables the current American method of war. We simply cannot project force without the massive Safe zone of our own country.

Blogger Fargoth June 18, 2019 6:27 PM  

The idea of 30% revolting seems like an insane overestimation. And against whom? The average american citizen is physically unable to jog a half mile.

I'm beginning to see how Vox's analysis of American Empire endgame is more realistic....when the good times run out, it will become as simple as tribalism. Anyone who's been to county jail could tell you as much.

Blogger OneWingedShark June 18, 2019 7:02 PM  

JohnofAustria wrote:The biggest key is understanding that having a completely safe and untouchable logistics base of our home country guarded by 2 oceans is the only thing that enables the current American method of war. We simply cannot project force without the massive Safe zone of our own country.
We simply do not have a "safe zone" with our borders being wide open and leadership unwilling to act against the invaders.

Blogger gunner451 June 18, 2019 7:05 PM  

The government does not have the desire to suppress MS-13, if it did it would but like most of the criminal class they serve a useful purpose for the government which is to be used as justification for even more intrusion into the average guys life.

Also this whole 4th gen warfare stuff is bunk, neither side could last long without access to modern infrastructure and services, especially food and water. If you look at history you'll see that every successful rebellion had a few things going for it, first was competent leadership and organization and the second was a source of funding (usually foreign) that allowed them to pay their soldiers since people don't fight for free. The government will abort any attempt at organization and jail the leaders before it even gets off the ground.

Lastly it takes an awful lot of deprivation before most normal people decide that they have nothing left to lose and are willing to take up arms against the rulers. This is basic human nature that you can't get around, most normal people are very risk adverse and not willing to put themselves, their fortunes and their families at risk. Now where you do see open rebellion against government is in the ghetto where you have the dynamics of entitled black racial victimhood combined with a contempt for authority, the knowledge that they'll get away with it (because experience has taught them that the justice system is a revolving door) and strong tribal ties. Again the government could shut this down in a New York minute but chooses not to as it again benefits the ruling elite.

Blogger Winston Smith June 18, 2019 7:07 PM  

@JAG:

A "good Christian man" does not pursue policies that result in well more than half a million deaths of Americans.

He was the most evil piece of crap to ever darken the halls of American political power.



The blood of most of the white men who died fighting that unnecessary war was on the hands of the aristocrats who couldn't stomach the idea that maybe slavery's days were numbered.

"Slavery as a state's rights" was a precursor to "abortion as state's rights." The next civil war will be partly about the sacred right to feed Moloch just as the first one was a sacrifice of white blood to sate Mammon.

Blogger Winston Smith June 18, 2019 7:10 PM  

As Dr. Johnson once said about the South (and colonies as a whole):

"Why is it that we hear the loudest yelps of 'liberty' from the drivers of negroes?"

Blogger Crew June 18, 2019 7:11 PM  

@80: 1014 pages for $2.99 (Kindle).

Looks like good reading too.

Blogger Statix June 18, 2019 7:35 PM  

Your average American conversative wouldn't know what the fuck to do if their Netflix went out, or if their Twitter account got deleted. And as Jefferson Lee pointed out, they piss their pants in fear about the mere thought of being labeled a racist, or bigot, or sexist, or homophobe, or trans-phobe.

Do you really expect these same people to take the reins and be active participants in the event of a civil war?

Blogger tublecane June 18, 2019 8:06 PM  

@85- Yes, precisely. Aborters are known for putting their offspring forward as slaves over whom they possess the power of life and death. I hear that all the time.

@86- Did Johnson ever read abolitionist writing? What did he imagine they were screeching aboit? Servitude?

Blogger Hylean June 18, 2019 8:10 PM  

So theyre just discovering fourth generational warfare?

Blogger sammibandit June 18, 2019 8:12 PM  

OT

OneWingedShark wrote: We simply do not have a "safe zone" with our borders being wide open and leadership unwilling to act against the invaders.

They're not just coming from the south.

The Court of Appeal of Alberta has upheld a decision to extradite an Edmonton man accused of funding his cousins who went overseas to fight for ISIS.

Blogger sammibandit June 18, 2019 8:13 PM  

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5170648

Blogger Gastguma June 18, 2019 8:28 PM  

I'm more interested in who will be fighting whom. In CW1, people had state loyalty, and it was a war between states. Nowadays, states themselves tend to be divided, usually between left-wing urban centers and right-wing rural areas. It could be that civil wars will occur within states themselves, especially "blue states," which are mostly blue cities surrounded by red country. Of course, the war is already happening, it just hasn't taken the form of extensive violence yet.

Blogger Doktor Jeep June 18, 2019 8:32 PM  

No scenario is what we expect.

Blogger wearebeggars June 18, 2019 8:50 PM  

@45
95% of the 30% would be white people.
"Shaniqua, Pedro, Juanita, Chen, and Bai" aren't Americans and have already shown that they are enemies of liberty by their voting patterns, criminal indulgences and hatred of Americans. They are the reason the government has become what it has. Of course they are not going to bite the hand that feeds them.

Blogger Avalanche June 18, 2019 9:01 PM  

@32 One good 'ol boy with a hunting rifle can disrupt traffic on the nearby interstate at will, withdraw, then repeat the process as necessary until law enforcement runs itself ragged.

Yeah, we've already seen 'proof of concept': Washington D.C. how-many-years ago?

Blogger Dorvannnn June 18, 2019 9:09 PM  

My biggest fear in case of another civil war is that Russia or China will see mass unrest inside the United States and launch a preemptive nuclear strike in order to prevent an "accidental" nuclear attack against them. I'm not sure how likely that actual scenario is though.

Blogger Unknown June 18, 2019 9:24 PM  

Revolution and civil war are the wrong terms to use. Insurgency is the correct one. Examples of what one man or one small team can to do a geographical area have been demonstrated, for those paying attention. John Allen Muhammad and one wingman in the Virginia area circa 2002, Christopher Dorner in Los Angeles, the Dallas BLM shooter, the search for Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, all were minimally or untrained, and all tied up massive resources as the government tried to cope with their actions.

Imagine, if you will, a Christopher Dorner breaking out in a dozen major metropolitan cities at once, and instead of one affirmative action civilian police hire, you get a USMC trained scout sniper.

Or, imagine if the Metcalf power sub-station attack happens to half a dozen cities nationwide, and on every substation feeding those cities.

Or, if one wanted to cause local mayhem, imagine if the head of the county DNC chapter, a local commie provocateur college professor, and the local TV talking head all get sniped on the same day.

As for the media, and their carrying the government water on coverage of any attacks, what they don't realize is that if they do, that means they have chosen a side, and that puts them on the target list.

Google Mike Vanderboegh and Clinton rules of engagement. TL;DR = all regime supporters are fair game. Reporters, businessmen, college professors, all of them.

Would there be enough people to change things for the better? I doubt it, we're to complacent, to soft now. Are there enough people to seriously fuck things up if they get it in their mind to?

You betcha.
-Unknownsailor-

Blogger Lazarus June 18, 2019 9:27 PM  

If it comes, it won't be anything like expected, and after a few weeks, everyone will see how obvious the progression appeared to be if people were really paying attention to the relevant facts.

Blogger Avalanche June 18, 2019 9:28 PM  

@84 "Lastly it takes an awful lot of deprivation before most normal people decide that they have nothing left to lose and are willing to take up arms against the rulers."

Have you heard of the American Revolution? Guessing... uh.... no?

Blogger Dave Dave June 18, 2019 9:42 PM  

There will be no revolution. There is nowhere near enough enthusiasm. A collapse will happen because the American people are demoralised and will sit idle while their world dies around them.

Blogger Jack Amok June 18, 2019 9:48 PM  

This is the paradox of asymmetric warfare: it is a winning strategy for R- selected populations, a losing strategy for k- selected populations. The hard right is by definition k-selected, so I would advise against any civil war fantasies.

That's the most moronic thing I've read here since the last boomer thread.

Blogger Vlad Z. June 18, 2019 9:53 PM  

Who?

Blogger Theproductofafineeduction June 18, 2019 9:55 PM  

Yes. Yes yes and Trump couldn’t win the nomination, election etc etc

Blogger tublecane June 18, 2019 10:06 PM  

@98- Clinton's Rules of Engagement apply only to Evul Nazees like those in Serbistan, I think you know. Everyone else has freedom of the press or whatever.

But seriously, the whole "which side are you on?" question will come to dominate us, open war or no open war. Just as Who/Whom underpins much disagreement in our culture, for those with eyes to see.

Blogger ErotemeObelus June 18, 2019 10:11 PM  

This is off-topic but way too groundbreaking to ignore. Psychologists have found that two types of intelligence (theory of mind, visuospatial) are zero-sum.

PC1 scores were positively related to performance on the mental rotation task, suggesting trade-offs between social skills and visual-spatial ability—or what the diametric model would describe as trade-offs between mentalistic versus mechanistic cognition. Indeed, only the diametric model can explain this finding, thanks to its implicit assumption that more cognitive resources devoted to mentalism mean less available for mechanistic cognition, and vice versa.

This is the first time I've seen "hardware limits" found in the human brain directly restrict the human mind. The more intelligent the human is at facial recognition/interpreting facial expressions, cognitive empathy, and social skills, the dumber he has to be in causal-deterministic reasoning and visuospatial thinking. And vice versa. It seems that the human mind wants to be equally good at both, but is discovering that there just isn't enough room.

Now the interesting thing is this: it is known that corvid and psittacine brains have homidiae-level cognition despite being near walnut-size and much less energy-consuming. Will it be possible for Homo sapiens sapiens to optimize the hardware of the brain to be equally good at facial processing/social skills/cognitive empahty and visuospatial reasoning by developing the same neurological architecture that corvids and psittacines have?

Blogger Raker_T June 18, 2019 10:14 PM  

OK, I read to 50, will catch the rest later.
@28 Indeed, CW1.0 started with border clashes between Missouri and Kansas in the 1850's.
Something to consider is that the government is well aware of 4GW, and will act accordingly. In the Art of War, his teaching was to know your enemy. Guess what? They already know a lot about individual Americans. I envision a situation where they form attack groups, hit a few targets in the AM, then disperse. They certainly won't be marching through the countryside in RED UNIFORMS. I'm just an old school craftsman, without ex military contacts, but I expect and hope that they are contemplating and preparing for these very things.

Blogger DonReynolds June 18, 2019 10:34 PM  

Unknown wrote:Would there be enough people to change things for the better? I doubt it, we're to complacent, to soft now. Are there enough people to seriously fuck things up if they get it in their mind to?

You betcha.

-Unknownsailor-


After the complete failure of the Easter Rebellion in Ireland (1916) and the execution of the "leaders", it looked as though all hope of Irish liberty was smashed into dust.

Michael Collins (and others) took their places (when they were released from British prisons) and in no time at all the fight was back on. Collins asked for a dozen good men with guns, who were nicknamed the "Twelve Apostles", and they began an aggressive campaign of selective assassination and terror bombing and attacks on police and military in Ireland, which spread to England (including London). This time, the same British leadership threw in the towel and called it quits after a short Anglo-Irish war (1919-21), ending with a treaty that gave Ireland independence. The Irish Republican Army of less than 15,000 had defeated the British Empire, immediately after the end of WWI.

This is not speculation. It is historic and it includes the same people who live in this country. I believe a small determined group could achieve the same results as well. This government simply lacks the will nor the capacity nor the stomach to withstand the same campaign.

Blogger Akuma June 18, 2019 10:42 PM  

The civilians will lose. Watching a bunch of Oath Keepers going up against an Abrams Tank is going to be comedic gold.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash June 18, 2019 10:54 PM  

Winston Smith wrote:They'd never give, much less obey, an order that amounts to the indiscriminate and deliberate extermination of tens to hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians to terrorize the other side.
William
Tecumseh
Sherman

Blogger SciVo June 18, 2019 11:00 PM  

Akuma wrote:The civilians will lose. Watching a bunch of Oath Keepers going up against an Abrams Tank is going to be comedic gold.

Why in the world would anyone bother to go directly against that tank? What purpose would it serve, that could not be more effectively served in some other way?

What you're exhibiting is linear thinking. I recommend systems thinking instead.

On that note, I have channeled my inner Pollyanna into a positive rant: American Re-Revolution, Not Civil War II.

Blogger Noah B. June 18, 2019 11:08 PM  

"The civilians will lose. Watching a bunch of Oath Keepers going up against an Abrams Tank is going to be comedic gold."

Even the hajjis figured out that it's more effective to target fuel trucks than functioning combat vehicles. All that fancy tech is practically useless when it's no longer mobile.

Blogger lynnjynh9315 June 18, 2019 11:14 PM  

The sad thing is, it wouldn't even require people to revolt. Just imagine dozens of Wacos and Ruby Ridges, just people resisting tyranny, and the PR fallout would be catastrophic. Pictures of dead kids spreading all over the internet. Military defections. Resignations would be forthcoming.

It really wouldn't take much to cripple the current government... in time, they'll do it to themselves. Never underestimate the stupidity of bureaucrats.

Blogger Primus Pilus June 18, 2019 11:14 PM  

Akuma wrote:The civilians will lose. Watching a bunch of Oath Keepers going up against an Abrams Tank is going to be comedic gold.

Oathkeepers? Nobody's talking about fat boomer civnats fighting for "muh consitushun", we're talking about actual right wingers, who also have more than 2 brain cells to rub together, fighting for the survival of their people.

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother June 18, 2019 11:26 PM  

Don't count out the Oath Keepers just yet.

Blogger Unknown June 18, 2019 11:35 PM  

When did they say this?

Blogger Damelon Brinn June 18, 2019 11:35 PM  

Watching a bunch of Oath Keepers going up against an Abrams Tank is going to be comedic gold.

Why would anyone do that? Fighting on their terms would be stupid.

This topic sure is a good one for bringing out the "You can't win, it'll never happen anyway, go back to sleep" brigades.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash June 18, 2019 11:36 PM  

Oath Keepers are not Boomers. They are overwhelmingly Gen-X and Millenials.

Blogger Kristophr June 19, 2019 12:03 AM  

Akuma wrote:The civilians will lose. Watching a bunch of Oath Keepers going up against an Abrams Tank is going to be comedic gold.

Your assumptions are comedic gold.

Why attack an M1 Abrams? That hippie with Obama stickers all over his car, and votes for funding for the government is a better target. People who supply food, ammo, and fuel to that Abrams crew are better targets.

That Abrams is useless if it is out of fuel, out of ammo, and out of maintenance.

Amateurs study tactics and strategy. Professionals study logistics.

Blogger SciVo June 19, 2019 12:05 AM  

Just think of this as a very long comment: A Handbook for Non-Sociopaths.

Blogger Dirk Manly June 19, 2019 12:09 AM  

@97

"My biggest fear in case of another civil war is that Russia or China will see mass unrest inside the United States and launch a preemptive nuclear strike in order to prevent an "accidental" nuclear attack against them. I'm not sure how likely that actual scenario is though."

Our missile silos can withstand detonations of medium-sized nuclear warheads directly over them at 500 ft altitude. Attacking our silos won't do shit, but WOULD unite the entire country into fighting whoever launched against us before resuming the internal squabble.

Blogger Dirk Manly June 19, 2019 12:17 AM  

@109

"The civilians will lose. Watching a bunch of Oath Keepers going up against an Abrams Tank is going to be comedic gold."

Depends on who is driving the tank. The type who enlist into a Combat Arms MOS are patriots. Those who join the military for free food and housing go into rear-echelon jobs (quartermaster stuff like laundry, postal, water purification, and dock operations).

Blogger Unknown June 19, 2019 1:12 AM  

Akuma wrote:The civilians will lose. Watching a bunch of Oath Keepers going up against an Abrams Tank is going to be comedic gold.
Those "civilians" will shoot the crew of the tank before they get into it.

That is, if those civilians can't shoot the politician who orders it to move. Or the DoD civilian worker who drives the fuel truck that fuels it. Or the General who tells it where to go.
-Unknownsailor-

Blogger SciVo June 19, 2019 1:13 AM  

Man! I'm getting inspired! I've said this kind of things before, but it's totally on-topic: Our Fake Elites: The WHY of Making Ourselves Ungovernable.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash June 19, 2019 1:17 AM  

@SciVo,
please stop spamming here with links to your blog, unless you've asked Vox first. It's rude.

Blogger cyrus83 June 19, 2019 1:29 AM  

I can buy 30% of the population revolting, the problem is going to be what proportion will be Americans versus what proportion will not be. Both groups may well be revolting against the current US government, but they will not end up as allies.

Logistically, when infrastructure becomes compromised, how bad off a place will be depends on how long and vulnerable its supply lines are for critical materials. In CW1 this wasn't as much a problem, as most cities supplied from the nearby surrounding region and many people were self-sufficient, which is why the South was able to keep going for 4 years. For CW2, there are far fewer people who are self-sufficient, and almost every population center of any size relies extensively on the transportation network (rail, interstates, trucking, shipping, air) for several critical things that aren't produced anywhere nearby. And often times the supplies are "just in time", with not a whole lot of reserve supply.

Blogger SciVo June 19, 2019 1:55 AM  

@125: Roger that, Snidely.

Blogger Achilles June 19, 2019 2:00 AM  

Lot of problems with the linked reddit post. The biggest red flag is deeper analysis #1 about the power grid. You don't trained army snipers to take out transformers . A drunk with a .22 could take out your standard transformer. And those aren't stockpiled somewhere. They will run out fast. As for the big stuff? Have a friend working with a utility marking company? The unnoticed idiots with spray paint cans throwing flags in the dirt. They have keys to every utility. They have access to all but the most vital of facilities. And they have laptop access to detailed plans of where every heavy mainline in the entire nation. Want to know where the heavy gas mains are for a city? Your buddy knows. And he has to keys to some access point.

And it won't be 30%. More like 3%. But that's more than enough. Lee Malvo and John Allen Muhammed shut down DC for 3 weeks with a rifle shooting civilians. What happens when 3% start hunting big game? You won't have to down a bridge or blow up a transformer. Cut off the head of the snake gentlemen.

Blogger Rabid Ratel June 19, 2019 2:29 AM  

Achilles wrote:And it won't be 30%. More like 3%. But that's more than enough.

Your 3% is going to need an army of 900 million to start containing them, if they don't run to the mountains. 1% is already going to strain not just the US, but the world. This is the reason the USA has been the world's policeman - they had both the will and the manpower to police small rebellions.

It will be interesting to see how many conservative revolutions will start the moment the USA gets busy with CWII. There are a lot of people pissed of at the globalists just waiting for the right moment.

Blogger DonReynolds June 19, 2019 2:55 AM  

Winston Smith wrote:The blood of most of the white men who died fighting that unnecessary war was on the hands of the aristocrats who couldn't stomach the idea that maybe slavery's days were numbered.

No Winston.
But we can play your game and pretend that the civil war was about black slavery. It was not, but let's pretend.

Those "aristocrats", who were too few to fight any war, did not fight that war to impose slavery on any state and certainly not to defend slavery in the four slave states outside the Confederacy, where slavery already existed. In fact, they did not wish to continue sharing the same country with those who wanted them destroyed. Imagine that. And so they exercised the same right that was exercised in 1776 to break away from all control and obligation to a political authority that did not share their values or tolerate their prosperity. The Founders of this nation understood that right, even if you and Lincoln do not. If 1861 was somehow wrong or immoral or unlawful, so was 1776.

Slavery was about cotton mostly, yet the South had no purpose for cotton other than to sell every bale to Northern textile manufacturers and the UK. If the buyers had been bothered or moved or disturbed by the use of black slaves to pick cotton, they could have refused to buy cotton that had been worked by slaves or discounted the price paid for such cotton. Only about half of the cotton was worked by black slaves, the rest was produced by yeoman farmers and families. It was a cash crop for anyone who sold it. Had the Northern textile manufacturers and UK refused or discounted cotton picked by slaves, much of slavery would have ended. The transition to sharecropping the same cotton fields would have happened a few years sooner, perhaps with Irish or German immigrant farmers. The slaves would have been sold in the Caribbean and South America, where there were still markets. The Confederacy would have never existed and there would not have been a civil war....not even over slavery.

So when you are looking for bloody hands to blame for the civil war....and slavery.....you need look no further than the wealthy merchant class in the North and the UK that owned the textile mills and became even more wealthy through the triangular trade in slaves, rum, and molasses, with Afrika and the Caribbean. The Brown family would be a good place to start. They put up the money for Brown University, but they were not the biggest or the longest running.

Blogger Northwest Watching Thing June 19, 2019 3:01 AM  

How the civil war goes down will depend heavily on the political landscape at the time it turns hot. My prediction:
Right now we've got both left wing and right wing radicals itching to start fighting, and a lot of right and left wingers perfectly fine with the status quo keeping them in check.
Trump will almost assuredly be reelected, and assuming another successful term his successor will be another Republican. Whoever he is, even if he is above average will appear lackluster in comparison, maybe even getting us into a neocon war in the ME, and will serve only one term, followed by a Democrat in 2028.
Due to forces outside of anyone's control, the empire will be in heavy decline coupled with severely lowered standards of living. He may or may not be heavy handed, but will certainly further divide the country. Which leads us into a Republican victory for Trump jr. which will turn the left apoplectic and they will start multiple revolts in early 2033, which is right on schedule for Vox' prediction of the end of the US as we know it.

Blogger wahr01 June 19, 2019 3:25 AM  

Just a reminder that 2 people with a hunting rifle and a sedan kept the DC corridors on lockdown for ages. (DC Sniper)


Now think of this: the power substations that serve urban areas are nigh-unguarded and on open ground.

I'm very surprised at this point that IS operatives have not blacked out major cities simply operating with basic 30 cal bolt actions and cash-bought "burner" beater-cars.

Blogger Frank Lee June 19, 2019 4:13 AM  

Um… no.

The way these simulations usually work is that a red team creates a dire situation, and a blue team struggles to figure it out and respond and by the end the blue team always wins because it's all pretty hypothetical and it's more fun for everyone involved to have the good guys win by the time the simulation is over. In other words, it's rigged for the blue team.

Nobody is going to set up a situation where the blue team loses. That being said, it's anyone's guess what would happen in real life, but actually there is a lot of thinking about how to respond to even the wildest dreams of anarchists and preppers. None of it may play out that way if it actually happens, but the US Military, home land security and all the various law enforcement agencies have thought about this a lot and they do have plans to respond. Thinking they would flail about unsure what to do is silly.

This is revolution porn.

Blogger wahr01 June 19, 2019 5:50 AM  

@133

You think they've actually thought this out?

https://patch.com/illinois/naperville/naperville-man-charged-faa-arson-left-suicidal-facebook-message-fbi-says-0

This was just one suicidal dude.
Now imagine 25 people in the bay area decide to take short walks across overpasses during rush-hour tossing jacks (the metal spiky toy) over the side by the handful?

Blogger PJW Gent June 19, 2019 9:13 AM  

We are so interconnected and just-in-time delivery sustained/dependent that even a minor wide-spread rebellion could start a cascade that would collapse the whole system in a few days and make normal life unrecoverable. The fragility of highly technology dependent social systems has long been surmised. Remember, even .01% initial participation of just radical white men would mean a minimum of 50,000 active disrupters nationwide making enough to allow at least 1,000 per state to bring the area to its knees. Where it would go from that beginning is a sheer guess, because there are so many black swan possibilities that it defies real analysis. It wouldn't take as much as most people thing to bring the whole country down.

Blogger berb2000 June 19, 2019 10:20 AM  

At the moment, and I am thinking until 2024 Trump controls the US military so any US military going AWOL to support the "revolution" would be a bunch of commie lesbian pillow biters. That would be a good thing. Realistically thinking if anyone starts a civil war now it would be the commie tards. They would be smashed or starved out of existence. At this time anyway.
Hell most of their propaganda outlets got woke and are going broke. The MSM only exists because ad agencies are also full of "woke" perverts who don't want their gang bang till we die of aids to ever end.

Blogger Chris Mallory June 19, 2019 11:09 AM  

Akuma wrote:The civilians will lose. Watching a bunch of Oath Keepers going up against an Abrams Tank is going to be comedic gold.

Or they can be where the tanks aren't. Tanks are sitting ducks in urban areas.
Once you get out into the rural areas you have lots to consider.
Will the roads support that tank? The bridges? Have you ever noticed how many troops die each year in training accidents when their vehicles roll over? Military vehicles are great on open plains. Get them in rough terrain and a lot of their advantages go away.

Blogger Tars Tarkas June 19, 2019 11:32 AM  

Akuma wrote:The civilians will lose. Watching a bunch of Oath Keepers going up against an Abrams Tank is going to be comedic gold.

Why would the government be using tanks? What would they be doing with this tank, let alone a whole squadron of them? What would the target be? Are they trying to take out critical infrastructure? Guarding a bridge?

Most military hardware would be useless in such a fantastic and unlikely conflict.



Still, I think our system is much more resilient than people think. The big mistake people make is they imagine you can change one variable and then look at the future with only that one variable changed. Other things can change when some important variable changes. Like under regular circumstances, getting some piece of equipment to repair the grid takes 18 months. Then they imagine that with entire metro grids out, this same state of affairs will exist and that metro grid remains down for 18 months.

The "rebels" are at a severe disadvantage. Assuming rebels in one area know who the other rebels are in the same area, they would not even know who the rebels are in some other area. The leadership would be extremely vulnerable. Not only do they have to risk arrest, but the rest of the rebels risk their leaders being co-opted. Giving the leaders money is how America defeated Iraq during the surge. Unless chaos is the goal, communications is absolutely required to fight any insurgency. Tacticly, the rebels would have an advantage, but without the ability to coordinate and work together towards objectives, which requires structure and communications, chaos is about all that could be accomplished. There are better ways of creating chaos.

We should start agreeing and amplifying BLM type stuff. Having a bunch of cities on fire like in 2014/2015 is probably a better tactic and would not involve anyone shooting at us, arresting us, having SWAT teams at our houses etc. Already there have been 2 race riots this summer (Baltimore and Memphis). Spreading the type of stuff which will cause more riots won't get you kicked off of social media either. This will cause maximum chaos for the system while not costing us anything. Plus we get to laugh at them.

Blogger lynnjynh9315 June 19, 2019 11:48 AM  

SciVo wrote:Just think of this as a very long comment: A Handbook for Non-Sociopaths.

no shooting up any place where pre-teens may reasonably be expected.

Deuteronomy 20:16-17 "However, in the cities of the nations the Lord your God is giving you as an inheritance, do not leave alive anything that breathes. Completely destroy them — the Hittites, Amorites, Canaanites, Perizzites, Hivites and Jebusites — as the Lord your God has commanded you."

1 Samuel 15:3 "Now go, attack the Amalekites and totally destroy all that belongs to them. Do not spare them; put to death men and women, children and infants, cattle and sheep, camels and donkeys."

Ezekiel 9:6 "Slaughter the old men, the young men and women, the mothers and children, but do not touch anyone who has the mark. Begin at my sanctuary.” So they began with the old men who were in front of the temple."

I agree with you on torture. But points 1 & 2 ignore a whole wealth of biblical condoning of mass murder. Do not deceive yourself by confusing your morality with God's. It just isn't the case.

Just saying.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd June 19, 2019 11:51 AM  

Tars Tarkas wrote:Most military hardware would be useless in such a fantastic and unlikely conflict.

The military hardware would be destroying its own logistics tail.

The Imperial Legions can operate with impunity in the sandbox because their supply chain and homes are thousands of miles away, out of range of the people they are killing.

If the military were to try to operate in CONUS, they would be attacking the same people who produce and transport their supplies and live next door to their families. The people the military shoots at tonight will go to work tomorrow morning to repair the military's equipment, make their MREs and ammunition, transport their fuel and so on. The people the military shot at will sugar their gas, crap in their MRE pouchs, leave the jesus nut loose on their helicopters, double charge their 5.56, put short fuses in their grenades. The military wives will be getting spit on in the grocery store, their children will be getting beaten up on the playground.

Xenophon's army could resupply by picking up arrows from the battle field. The Imperial Legions cannot.

Blogger Jay in DC June 19, 2019 12:20 PM  

@140 Thanks for that assessment. I fucking --marvel-- at the number of people who think Abrams Tanks run on pixie dust and black magic.

"What are your AR-15s going to do against Predator Drones, F-16s, Abrams, artillery". If I had a nickel for every time I hear this. What defeatist faggotry is this?

Every single one of those complex platforms has a logistics tail a mile long (literally in some cases) that if snipped makes the pointy head of the viper stop spitting venom straight away.

And there is also the scale issue. As you alluded to CONUS is a BIG place. Got enough 'hardware' to saturate the entire land mass? I'm guessing not. In a full scale conflagration the heavy hitting hardware would become ineffective rapidly as a protracted conflict wore on.
As you alluded to, people generally do not want to empower their own destruction.

It is so odd to me how many people conflate the sandbox adventures with 'how it would happen' in a full tilt CW2 scenario where the two things couldn't be any more different in almost all aspects.

Blogger Tars Tarkas June 19, 2019 1:14 PM  

@141 Even if none of this was true, all this hardware is mostly completely useless in an insurgency. FFS, what are you going to use a fighter jet for?

Even things like drones are mostly useless. Does anyone actually believe that they would use these in a similar way they did in Pakistan? That the feds are going to drone strike weddings and funerals in the US? Or cruise missiles into suburban developments?

People imagine that all of this impressive hardware used to fight foreign state actors will somehow be useful in what is likely to be a police and intelligence fight on America's home turf.

The only way this stuff comes into play is if there is a proper civil war involving US states. If a bunch of US states decide to break away and fight the feds, then all bets are off and the hardware comes into play. But absent state sanctioned war, all this hardware is useless.

Blogger AnonymousModerate June 19, 2019 1:52 PM  

Akuma wrote:The civilians will lose. Watching a bunch of Oath Keepers going up against an Abrams Tank is going to be comedic gold.

No, this comment is comedic gold.

I'm a long time lurker, first time poster. In my opinion unknown sailor's insight about the future of America is ranked among the best responses I've seen about this topic. Ex: "Insurgency is the correct [term not civil war or revolution]." As for the reddit link it helps the normie understand what can and possibly can't happen. I honestly don't know if it's revolution porn.

My prediction is going to be random acts of violence on the scale of the DC snipers, New Zealand mosque, and Metcalf sniper attacks (4GW). I am obviously not calling for violence, just predicting. I could be wrong on this one but I don't see the right "taking it to the house" by marching to DC with pitchforks or anything of that nature. The right just has a lot of capable people that can cause the elite overlords problems. It won't even matter if guns are banned, how will society ban drones, pencils, knives, etc?

As for President Trump somebody here mentioned a year or two ago that the next President to follow him will be a strongman. I wish I could find that comment. In my opinion he's trying to help America but with decades of the rot he's fighting a lost cause. He doesn't fight against the rising tide of immigration and technology. He exposed the media and is buying us all time.

Everybody is better off bettering their life, raising well adjusted children, and living life to their fullest. Somebody commented about Vox's prediction which I'll leave here:
https://voxday.blogspot.com/2015/06/prediction-collapse-by-2040.html
20 years is a long time to get your act together. I currently live in a liberal state but once everything comes together I will move to a more family friendly state. There however is hope. I suggest reading Sovereign Individual to learn why.

~~ChicagoFire

Blogger ChicagoFire June 19, 2019 2:08 PM  

Tars Tarkas wrote:Akuma wrote:The civilians will lose. Watching a bunch of Oath Keepers going up against an Abrams Tank is going to be comedic gold.

Why would the government be using tanks? What would they be doing with this tank, let alone a whole squadron of them? What would the target be? Are they trying to take out critical infrastructure? Guarding a bridge?

Most military hardware would be useless in such a fantastic and unlikely conflict.

Still, I think our system is much more resilient than people think. The big mistake people make is they imagine you can change one variable and then look at the future with only that one variable changed. Other things can change when some important variable changes. Like under regular circumstances, getting some piece of equipment to repair the grid takes 18 months. Then they imagine that with entire metro grids out, this same state of affairs will exist and that metro grid remains down for 18 months.

The "rebels" are at a severe disadvantage. Assuming rebels in one area know who the other rebels are in the same area, they would not even know who the rebels are in some other area. The leadership would be extremely vulnerable. Not only do they have to risk arrest, but the rest of the rebels risk their leaders being co-opted. Giving the leaders money is how America defeated Iraq during the surge. Unless chaos is the goal, communications is absolutely required to fight any insurgency. Tacticly, the rebels would have an advantage, but without the ability to coordinate and work together towards objectives, which requires structure and communications, chaos is about all that could be accomplished. There are better ways of creating chaos.

We should start agreeing and amplifying BLM type stuff. Having a bunch of cities on fire like in 2014/2015 is probably a better tactic and would not involve anyone shooting at us, arresting us, having SWAT teams at our houses etc. Already there have been 2 race riots this summer (Baltimore and Memphis). Spreading the type of stuff which will cause more riots won't get you kicked off of social media either. This will cause maximum chaos for the system while not costing us anything. Plus we get to laugh at them.


This is another good comment. I agree the system is more resilient than people imagine for now. Hence why I think there will be random skirmishes until eventually immigration causes everything to crash.


"Already there have been 2 race riots this summer (Baltimore and Memphis)."

Source? I looked this up but couldn't find anything to prove this.

Blogger VFM #7634 June 19, 2019 2:30 PM  

As to how the world would react:

I'm pretty sure that China would openly help the U.S. government. Which by definition would be left-wing, since no cuck will ever get elected again, and we'd have no reason to rebel against Trump or anyone like him.

Russia would watch from the sidelines neutral, because hating Russia is something common to both Democrats and right-wing Americans. Israel would be neutral as well... while I can't see them helping a Democrat government that hates them, I don't think they'd actually help the rebels either. Various Israeli elements might help both sides surreptitiously.

Western Europeans would also support the U.S. government, considering their approval of Obama is very high while they all hate Trump. Same with Latin Americans and the Islamic world, of course. But I don't see anyone actively interfering on behalf of the U.S. government except the Chinese or the Mexicans. The British and Europeans might, but it would be sneakier, more in the realm of financial and technical help.

Ex-Communist Eastern Europeans are more sane and clear-headed, and in most cases would favor the rebels. They're the only large group of nations that I ever see doing so.

Blogger RedJack June 19, 2019 2:46 PM  

30%?

That is not a revolt, that is a separation.

Blogger VFM #7634 June 19, 2019 2:53 PM  

The Chinese would favor a left-wing U.S. government 100%. Not only because they'd be aiding fellow Communists, but also because it is in the Chinese nation's very nature and psychology to favor totalitarian governments over rebels.

Blogger Up from the pond June 19, 2019 2:59 PM  

"There is no one who can't do harm if he is roused to it." – Arthur Schopenhauer, Studies in Pessimism, Chapter 5

Blogger Up from the pond June 19, 2019 3:06 PM  

wahr01 wrote:I'm very surprised at this point that IS operatives have not blacked out major (U.S.) cities

Why would Mossad do that? Trump is giving them everything they want.

Blogger OneWingedShark June 19, 2019 4:10 PM  

On Topic — it looks like someone was running military-supply —
http://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1141411073226158086

Ominous Cowherd wrote:Tars Tarkas wrote:Most military hardware would be useless in such a fantastic and unlikely conflict.
The military hardware would be destroying its own logistics tail.

There's a saying:
"Amateurs talk about tactics, but professionals study logistics." — Gen. Robert H. Barrow, USMC

You can tell the amateur from the professional because the former displays thinking only "in the moment", while the latter necessitates thinking of how to set-up "the moment" and often beyond, as setting up the next "moment".

Jay in DC wrote:@140 Thanks for that assessment. I fucking --marvel-- at the number of people who think Abrams Tanks run on pixie dust and black magic.

"What are your AR-15s going to do against Predator Drones, F-16s, Abrams, artillery". If I had a nickel for every time I hear this. What defeatist faggotry is this?

Every single one of those complex platforms has a logistics tail a mile long (literally in some cases) that if snipped makes the pointy head of the viper stop spitting venom straight away.

Absolutely — civil war in the US would be a nightmare, an absolute hellscape, insofar as logistics is concerned. You think Afghanistan was bad? Imagine the same "enemies mingling with the general population", but now that population is the same population you depend on to get your food, fuel, bullets, mail, etc. — The strain on proving security for these logistic-tails would be enormous! You've gone from passively trusting the supply line, to actively distrusting it... that alone would be a morale-killer, even excluding all defection, desertion, and mole problems.

Blogger Goose June 19, 2019 5:53 PM  

I live down here in "fly over country" where there are a serious number of bases of varying sorts within 100 miles of where I live. What you must understand is that the military largely live amongst us. So when they would use a drone to blow up a neighborhoods they would blow up their own families. That folks is the nature of 4G. Sit outside any base at shift change. The number of cars in and out is amazing. Their kids go to the same schools, churches, social groups etc. The mil shops at the same stores use the same entertainment venues and recreational facilities. Down here they are us and we are them, not easily separable. Yes, the oath is the oath but an illegal order need not be followed (some risk there).

The real risk is in the alphabet soup of Federal Agencies and locals who are filled with sadists and psychopaths. This is where the troubles will arise. The local swat team is your enemy as they represent the real enemy politicians.

Blogger Crew June 19, 2019 6:28 PM  

Well, I have faith in the Abrams tank and all those female tankies who can barely load one or two 120mm rounds and then need to have a rest.

I mean, they will be able to prevent CWII.

Blogger Tars Tarkas June 19, 2019 6:33 PM  

ChicagoFire wrote:"Already there have been 2 race riots this summer (Baltimore and Memphis)."

Source? I looked this up but couldn't find anything to prove this.


The one in Baltimore is being characterized as "teens" wilding. Hundreds of black people rampaged through Baltimore attacking random white people. The media tried to cover it up, but it got out.
Teen=Any black person of unknown age who is not obviously a senior citizen!
Seriously, WTF are they talking about? Even if they really were all teenagers (they weren't), does that really excuse this? The victims of these "teens" just 'letting off some steam' end up with broken bones in their face, broken eye sockets, broken jaws, knocked out teeth, concussions etc.
And make no mistake, they are characterized as unruly teens to cover up and minimize the extreme violence and criminality of these people. Very often they refer to the attacks as "fights" as if there is mutual combat going on, or "scuffles" as if being attacked by a bunch of hateful blacks is no big deal.

https://breaking911.com/baltimore-cops-release-video-showing-hundreds-of-teens-rush-streets-attack-strangers-at-random/

The other one was a more typical race riot of black people attacking the police because they killed some guy who dindu nuffin and puting 24 of them in the hospital.
https://www.npr.org/2019/06/13/732289724/at-least-24-memphis-police-officers-hurt-in-protests-after-deadly-shooting

The media has really downplayed these and other events. BLM was getting out of control and so Soros pulled the funding and the media stopped giving it positive coverage.

Blogger Frank Lee June 19, 2019 7:12 PM  

@134

"You think they've actually thought this out?

https://patch.com/illinois/naperville/naperville-man-charged-faa-arson-left-suicidal-facebook-message-fbi-says-0

This was just one suicidal dude.
Now imagine 25 people in the bay area decide to take short walks across overpasses during rush-hour tossing jacks (the metal spiky toy) over the side by the handful?"

Yeah, that's exactly the kind of thing they imagine in these mass civil disorder scenarios and much much more. Something like that might be considered an opening move in a modern civil war game, but more likely dismissed as not scary enough.

There are plenty of people in government and law enforcement who are every bit as geeked out on unconventional warfare, prepper manuals and apocalyptic fiction as the most wild eyed revolution porn consumer. In fact, people who write prepper manuals, apocalyptic fiction and have deep experience in unconventional warfare are exactly the kind of people the government hires to build red team scenarios. And they can think up plenty of things a lot more scary than tossing metal jacks.

Now, I'm not saying all will be fine, or that every contingency has been thought through or that any planned response would work. But the idea of a major government study, commissioned to determine the outcome of a US civil war, coming to the conclusion, "Opps, we lose. Nothing we can do." is stupid.

At best, the study would say, "There's a real danger, give us more money to figure out how to solve it." More likely, it would say "There's a danger, and here is how we should be prepared. And give us more money." Or simply, "We aren't sure, give us more money for more studies." Anyone who simply said, "We would lose a Civil War." wouldn't be hired again, even if they were right. And they wouldn't have been hired in the first place.

If you're on the side of a revolution, just be aware there are some smart people who make a lot of money getting paid by the government to consider everything you might be thinking about. And they have fun doing it. Maybe you're smarter, but if the best you can think of is 25 people throwing metal jacks at cars, you're not really the threat they are worried about.

Blogger berb2000 June 19, 2019 7:16 PM  

I70 in Missouri, I44 in Missouri, I55 in Missouri. I70 just west of Denver. Control those points and pretty much control the entire Missippi drainage area. Denver may take some time, but in Missouri (at this time) that would be quite an easy order to fill.

Blogger Avalanche June 19, 2019 11:31 PM  

@144 ""Already there have been 2 race riots this summer (Baltimore and Memphis)."
Source? I looked this up but couldn't find anything to prove this. "

What?!? You are unaware of Colin Flaherty?!?! He used to be a 'normal' reporter -- now reports on the TRUTH about 'teens' and 'youths' and letting off steam. Here, wander around and catch up on reality!!
https://us7.campaign-archive.com/home/?u=ef23b6b7bb479b4f219f01340&id=10f35846fe

From today's newsletter:
Cop shooters back on the street before the cop is out of the hospital.
http://whitegirlbleedalot.com/cop-shooter-back-on-the-street-before-cop-is-out-of-hospital-and-other-crazy-stories-from-around-the-country-in-a-new-podcast-from-colin-flaherty/

Yesterday's newsletter:
Black parolee beats and rapes a white girl because of slavery. A new video: (https://www.minds.com/newsfeed/987845544542810112)

Earlier, just some random:
1. We just documented 10 mass shootings in the last few days. All fellas.
2. Reparations are back. White people owe black people untold trillions of dollars for all the bad things white people have done to black people for 4 billion years. Wonder where are the tens of trillions of dollars to compensate for 50 years of black violence, mayhem, chaos and murder.
3. Every once in a while it is good to take a breath and remind ourselves of WASSSUPPP with black violence so wildly out of proportion.
So, here is the History of the World Part 2 Black violence edition.
http://whitegirlbleedalot.com/history-of-the-world-part-2-black-violence-edition-a-new-podcast-from-colin-flaherty
Buckle up: It’s worse than we remember.


A review of Colin's first book:
Thomas Sowell: ”Reading Colin Flaherty’s book made painfully clear to me that the magnitude of this problem is greater than I had discovered from my own research. He documents both the race riots and the media and political evasions in dozens of cities.” – National Review.

Blogger Rough Carrigan June 20, 2019 12:08 AM  

The water supplies of a lot of big cities are amazingly vulnerable. Los Angeles? My god. And it's not just desert cities. I live in a northeastern blue state next to the town with the reservoir that supplies the big city. A few guy pushed over the edge wouldn't have to do that much to cripple the water supply of many large cities.

Blogger Daniel June 20, 2019 9:32 PM  

How many fuel the tank gnna have? Zero

Blogger Stan_qaz June 21, 2019 12:43 AM  

Assistance from Russia and China, good points were made but if they limit assistance to things like RPGs, AK-47s and cases of ammo or even manually keyed encrypted radios covertly air-dropped in small numbers in areas that are revolting they would see more good will than bad.

NATO or other foreign troops would likely have a zero long term survival rate and be priority targets for ambushes and snipers, as well as being great fodder for propaganda.

What percentage will be drawn to revolt really depends on what you mean. Revolt to clean up the swamp and restore a government more to our liking, well maybe 5%. Revolt to establish West Wakanda, maybe 20% of the blacks. Revolt to establish Aztlan, maybe 20% of the Mexicans. To just establish a territory for your gang, a good number of the South and Central Americans. Establish Islamic rule, maybe 75% of the muslims. All told a lot of folks pulling away that have to be stopped despite their different directions

Military and cops, active and retired, are tied to the system for their pay, medical care and retirements. Going to be hard to peel them away from that carrot without a mighty big stick. A lot of sniping incidents, EODs and such might turn them neutral or intentionally ineffective.

In a city versus country scenario a simple take out the power lines, canals, rails and interdict the highways is very hard to counter. The downside for the country folks will be dealing with the hordes walking out of the cities looking for water and food.

They may guard the transformer stations, pumps and such but shooting down a few insulators will drop the lines and can be done miles from nowhere if necessary. Canals, well an IED tossed off a bridge in passing will breach most of them. Train tracks have so many issues you'll spend more time picking a method than taking them out.

10K will die in a year? How about 4 million in a week in Phoenix if our canals are cut, the power lines come down and a few local generation stations get hit. Rail and highway transport getting us enough water isn't likely even if not interdicted. Same for every other desert city.

Long term the countryside will suffer from lack of distribution systems and infrastructure that was taken out to isolate the cities. Deaths will be slower coming than in the cities and the number will depend on how well the countryside folks can organize to protect their own.

Early on, before reinforcements arrive, count the guard types at a nuke power plant, show up with twice that number at dawn and by lunch you have your own nuke plant to shut down or provide power at your whim. If pushed nobody says you have to give it back in operational condition and turbines break easily.

Almost forgot natural gas pipelines, easy targets miles form nowhere and essential to the power grid. How many run to California and what is the lead time (guessing a year plus) for getting replacement pumps.

A nice hunting rifle in 7.62 NATO / .308 would be easy to find ammo for, have great range and be able to take out a lot of stuff you'd not expect. Fighters on approach or for a bigger bang on takeoff. About any other aircraft, aside from the A-10 they hates holes in the engines. Any exposed cop or soldier any non-armored equipment, civilian or military out to your maximum effective range. Power lines, gas lines, fiber optic lines, all are fair game. 5.56 has a place and I'd want one too as well as a 9mm but by choice the fun a .30 opens up would be my first choice.

Blogger farmgirl June 28, 2019 9:11 PM  

In the event of an insurrection, the mountains are where it’s at. Lots of cover and local know-how about beans, bullets and sources of water. And no tanks but beware of heat-seeking devices and air forces. In the last ice age, most species went extinct except in the Appalacians, where they survived to repopulate the continent east of the Mississippi. The Rockies did the same, looking east. And so will we. Look to the mountains, survive, and repopulate.

Blogger farmgirl June 28, 2019 9:13 PM  

And Russia and China “helping” us would only be pre-approval for an invasion and land grab. Which they probably would do without bothering to “help” us ...

Blogger Obama's boyfriend June 29, 2019 2:06 AM  

Civil Wars do not have definite starting points. Can someone tell me the date when the French Revolution started; the Russian Revolution; the Spanish Civil War?

We are a nation losing its identity. We are not the America of the Civil War. I would posit a Civil War in America would look like the Russian Civil War or the situation in Yugoslavia during WW2. There are too many groups in America that do not identify or support the founder's ideals. Blacks, Latinos, various gangs, Muslims all would push for their own piece of the turf.

As for the government subduing a revolt, 2 idiots terrorized DC for two weeks. What would happen if 1 per cent of the population didn't start shooting, they merely put sugar in gas tanks, put nails on highways, shoot up insulators on towers? Then there are the mere use of bombs and IEDs which a first year chem student can make with materials purchased at home depot.

The government can't control our borders, can't stop drugs from entering the country, can't even control the violence in the central cities and they are going to stop people who are so riled up that they are willing to revolt, after decades of being law abiding citizens? Beware the patient man who patience has been used up.

Whether or not the government could prevail is an easy answer-once the population of the law abiding rises up its doubtful the government would understand what is happening or know how to deal with it. My guess is that they'd react as they do with blacks-attempt to buy off the rebels.

Its hard to buy off a man who has been abused and used by his government.


The next question is how would support the rebels or send aid to weaken the government. Take your pick, can anyone doubt the drug cartels would love the chaos. How about the Cubans-they love us. Tehran-they'd stay out for sure.

My guess is that the war would be very bloody and to the knife. Such wars always are. As far as the comments about Christians, Lincoln caused a war which took the lives of at least a million Americans. Such a god fearing man. Once the dogs of war are unleashed it will be beyond awful.

Finally, if such a war does come no one can predict the results. The French Revolution which was supposed to end the monarchy ended with an Emperor. The Russian Revolution that promised land and peace ended with millions in the gulags, endless purges, stravation and more Russians killed by their own government than the Nazis could have hoped to kill.

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