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Tuesday, June 11, 2019

Gone in six months?

Fake Science is beginning to face the cruel realization that Nature is calling its bluff:
In recent years the National Park Service prominently featured brochures, signs and films which boldly proclaimed that all glaciers at Glacier National Park were melting away rapidly. But now officials at GNP seem to be scrambling to hide or replace their previous hysterical claims while avoiding any notice to the public that the claims were inaccurate. Teams from Lysander Spooner University visiting the Park each September have noted that GNP’s most famous glaciers such as the Grinnell Glacier and the Jackson Glacier appear to have been growing – not shrinking – since about 2010. The Jackson Glacier—easily seen from the Going-To-The-Sun Highway—may have grown as much as 25% or more over the past decade.


Apparently those computer models that indicated the glaciers will be gone by the year 2020 are inaccurate. That, or it is going to be one serious inferno of a summer.

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76 Comments:

Blogger thalios June 11, 2019 10:31 AM  

Reality is undefeated.

Blogger Max Boivin June 11, 2019 10:41 AM  

I had to burn some logs in my stove in June... if we are to have an inferno of a summer, temperatures better start raising soon.

Blogger JDC June 11, 2019 10:49 AM  

I was fishing in Northern Minnesota last week of May...we still had some frozen snow in the ditches. Warming indeed.

Blogger peacefulposter June 11, 2019 10:50 AM  

Is it just me or is the "Climate Change" agenda accelerating? The Watermellons are really trying to shove it shoved down our throats lately.

Almost like they are in panic mode.

Blogger SemiSpook37 June 11, 2019 10:52 AM  

I've noticed the Earth has this uncanny knack for reclaiming things that were once developed by man, often times with an astonishing pace.

This is what leads me to think that while there is such a thing as climate change (which is already happening, over the course of eons, and will continue to do so well after we've all left this plane), "Climate Change" is an enormous pile of crap that doesn't hold up to any logical smell test.

I will always maintain that we should obviously be good stewards of the environment around us (because it makes sense); it's the use of force (regardless of whoever mandates it) to do so that I will always tend to resist.

Blogger Barbarossa June 11, 2019 11:00 AM  

I, for one, choose not to believe my lying eyes.

Blogger English Tom June 11, 2019 11:02 AM  

If there really is global warming and melting icecaps then why are the Maldives still islands and not open sea?

Blogger L'Aristokrato June 11, 2019 11:04 AM  

Well... It's not as if reality will ever get in the way of the narrative.

Blogger swiftfoxmark2 June 11, 2019 11:12 AM  

I remember being told that the hole in the ozone layer was caused by man when I was in middle school.

Then in high school chemistry, I was told that ozone is actually a highly reactive gas composed of three oxygen atoms. It can only be created when UV light splits an oxygen molecule and forces it to bond with another oxygen molecule. Then I was told that the holes in the ozone layer are in the North Pole and the South Pole.

So I concluded that the hole in the ozone layer being man-made is a crock. The science literally doesn't support the idea of a man-made hole in the ozone layer.

You'll notice that this isn't talked about anymore.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash June 11, 2019 11:19 AM  

swiftfoxmark2 wrote:I remember being told that the hole in the ozone layer was caused by man when I was in middle school.
Turns out the hole in the ozone layer is a recurrent seasonal phenomenon. It happens every year at the south pole. Upper stratospheric winds tend to circle around the center of the continent, and the lack of sunlight in the winter months means the ozone that decomposes back to O2 is neither replenished from elsewhere nor replaced by new.
But banning Freon just as the patent ran out meant that DuPont could completely replace the then-existing refrigerant market with their new patented refrigerant R34a. So it had that going for it.

Blogger Silent Draco June 11, 2019 11:19 AM  

Meanwhile, the Biggest Bright Thing In Sky continues to not erupt in spots, and remains cooler and calmer. If this results in global cooling, should we sacrifice the researchers and their computers? Doesn't sound like much of a loss.

Blogger David Ray Milton June 11, 2019 11:20 AM  

Top this. We had snowfall on our local mountain range in Phoenix this past year. North Scottsdale and Cave Creek were all snow-capped.

When I asked the locals the last time they saw that they replied, “This has never happened before that I can remember.”

Blogger R Webfoot June 11, 2019 11:24 AM  

"Apparently those computer models that indicated the glaciers will be gone by the year 2020 are inaccurate. That, or it is going to be one serious inferno of a summer."

They have a very short deadline to make sure they weren't actually wrong.

... Hey, maybe that's why they support counterproductive global warming initiatives that let China and India pollute as much as they want. They're trying to CAUSE climate change so they were right the whole time.

There is precedent; debunking feminist claims about the rape rate got them to support mass immigration from third-world countries, and to tell women that they should not take steps to make rape less likely. Proved us wrong, did you? Well, we'll see about that.

Blogger Damelon Brinn June 11, 2019 11:31 AM  

Is it just me or is the "Climate Change" agenda accelerating?

They're trying to accelerate everything. They've gotten a sense, especially since Trump's election, that the pendulum is about to swing back the other way. For some, that was the first time they realized there IS a pendulum and progressivism isn't a one-way inevitability. So instead of simmering along slowly, now they're trying to push it as hard and fast as they can, in hopes they can break the resistance they're feeling.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan June 11, 2019 11:32 AM  

You try and be an average everyday white person in the Democratic party where the average IQ for its voters is probably south of 95. So how else can you make it in the party if the gay crap bores you, but you don't want to sound like a Rwandan like einsetzgruppen antifa deadbeat?

Answer, you wear a t-shirt that says "Science is not a liberal conspiracy", and you effect a snobbish tone of above it all while moralizing about white conservatives being the real dummies.

But the future will be lit as Mexican gangsters drag white progs behind their brand new F-150s, "Gringoes scream real good."

Blogger Azimus June 11, 2019 11:45 AM  

As long as they can openly spray stuff into the atmosphere they don't care why you believe its necessary...

Blogger Longtime Lurker June 11, 2019 11:52 AM  

Satellite temperature data continues to show minimal warming: +0.32 degrees C over the 1981 - 2010 global average. That's grossly underwhelming compared to what computer models have predicted.

http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/

Blogger Ominous Cowherd June 11, 2019 11:53 AM  

Silent Draco wrote:If this results in global cooling, should we sacrifice the researchers and their computers?

The sacrifice won't work if they aren't virgins, but burning them at the stake solves other problems, even if it doesn't stop our coming ice age.

Blogger One Deplorable DT June 11, 2019 11:58 AM  

@11 - If this results in global cooling, should we sacrifice the researchers and their computers? Doesn't sound like much of a loss.

Unlike the researchers those computers could be useful.

Blogger Pseudotsuga June 11, 2019 12:18 PM  

Apparently glaciers can't read, or they would have known they were supposed to disappear.
Maybe we should hire people to melt those glaciers to where they are 'supposed' to be! After all, science!

Blogger pyrrhus June 11, 2019 12:27 PM  

O/T but very well worth reading, Dmitri Orlov on Chernobyl, Fukushima and other nuclear "accidents" and the nuclear industry in general....https://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2019/06/nuclear-meltdown-at-hbo.html

Blogger Jab Burrwalky June 11, 2019 12:27 PM  

Caused by CFCs used once in a while nowhere near the poles. And far too heavy to get to the ozone layer.

This is what happens when tenure at universities is based on generating a new idea, and particularly an alarmist, newsworthy idea. They make shit up without testing it properly.

Blogger KPKinSunnyPhiladelphia June 11, 2019 12:31 PM  

The only way Climate Change advocates believe they can win the debate -- and in turn, get more control for state actors -- is by crazy alarmist short term predictions. These invariably turn out to be non-credible, because short term first and second order climate effects turn out to be highly variable.

We know a lot about physics and the activities of large and small scale physical phenomena, but these are relatively simple, even though the mathematical representations are complex.

Climate and weather, on the other hand, are chaotic activities that are both impossible to model and impossible to predict. The number of inputs are staggering, and anybody who thinks they can Excel and MiniTab their way into accurate predictions are engaged in a delusional activity.

Sure, they can say, "Oh look, the glacier is shrinking," or "Oh, look water levels are down" or "Oh, look, the ocean is more acidic." But those are just single inputs into a chaotic system that has a way of operating that is impenetrable to predictions, especially short term ones.

Will the environment get "hotter?" It might, abut then again it might not (though on a long time scale it may). And by how much? Will the environment get colder? Yep, but then again, it might not.

We have limits, significant limits, in predicting the activity of chaotic systems. That's why the predictive work of "climate science" is not science in the Popperian sense of hypothesis testing and evaluating data outputs that may falsify that hypothesis.

It's model building, and that is not science.

Blogger Welsh Woodsman June 11, 2019 12:39 PM  

This past year in northern NH there was snow on the ground for six months. Currently, the leaves if the birches above 3000’ elevation have yet to leaf out and there are still sheltered hollows at that elevation and higher that are holding snow.
Since global warming is proving to be a crock the word wizards have now begun call by it climate change. How convenient now any weather anomaly can now be blamed on CO2 levels.

Blogger Jon D. June 11, 2019 12:45 PM  

Global Cooling is going to kill us all by 2040! Mark my words!

Blogger Miguel June 11, 2019 12:51 PM  

Computer models prove anything you want.

Blogger S. Thermite June 11, 2019 12:53 PM  

So the glaciers aren’t actually melting away AND 6-gorillion weren’t exterminated concentration camps?

There’s a joke about ovens in there somewhere.

Blogger VFM #7634 June 11, 2019 12:57 PM  

In the Pac NW, they've been predicting that it would warm up and dry out all year. It's still 10 degrees cooler than normal, and wetter too.

There was also a petition to put the Groundhog in jail for a false prediction-- he supposedly didn't see his shadow.

Blogger Doktor Jeep June 11, 2019 1:00 PM  

Maybe the glacier is just gone in spirit

Blogger Nostromo June 11, 2019 1:20 PM  

Silly question. If you wer err a member of Congress in good standing you would know all islands float, and are in danger of being capsized by US Navy basrs.

Blogger Fuzzums Wuzzums June 11, 2019 1:31 PM  

Depends on what you mean by "glaciers".

Blogger Goodnight June 11, 2019 1:35 PM  

It's 72 degrees right now, around noon. In Fort Worth. In June. This is starting out as our coolest summer on record.

Blogger Noah B. June 11, 2019 1:40 PM  

Unseasonable warmth in one part of the globe is practically always offset by unseasonably cool weather elsewhere. We're having a wonderfully mild summer so far while India is frying.

Blogger Amy June 11, 2019 1:48 PM  

It’s been cool and wetter than usual here, three years running. Hurricane Sandy was some sort of benchmark of severe weather events for the Mid Atlantic states, but it was just weather.

Why can’t “it’s just weather” be an answer? Rhetorical no need to splain. The hype over “extreme weather events” capitalizes on short memories and general ignorance of history and science, all while convincing people they’re smart for noticing we have 1/2” more rain this year than last.

Higher education drives this. You’re better than the rest, because you paid to be told what to believe.

Blogger NO GOOGLES June 11, 2019 1:49 PM  

Freon does actually destroy ozone very efficiently - which was the whole problem and why they banned it (it was a legitimate reason to ban it). The BS part is that they tried to push the "hole in the ozone layer" thing for other stuff and stopped when it became untenable. Absent high levels of CFC emissions the ozone layer heals itself - ozone is formed when solar radiation/cosmic rays impact the O2 in the high atmosphere breaking it into single oxygen atoms with enough energy to sustain O3 bonds.

R134a is better refrigerant anyways - only downsides are that it is more corrosive and requires higher pressures - things that are easily solved by a bit of engineering.

Blogger HouellebecqGurl June 11, 2019 1:51 PM  

77 here, just outside of ATL. Wonderful June temps, I'm loving it.

Blogger Barbarossa June 11, 2019 1:58 PM  

@34 Because "it's just weather" and "history began the day I was born" don't go well together. Even the most cursory review of weather history shows that nothing we've seen in the last century is the least bit remarkable, save our propensity for building structures in low-lying coastal areas.

Blogger VFM Bear June 11, 2019 1:59 PM  

I remember when we used to joke about how if the government could tax the air we breathe, they would.

Then they invent climate change and have people begging them to do just that.

MPAI, not the Force, is the ultimate power in the universe.

Blogger Calvin809 June 11, 2019 2:11 PM  

The last time I was at Glacier for vacation there was a woman crying over the glaciers and how we are destroying the planet.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash June 11, 2019 2:28 PM  

Every complex system has feedback loops. Any such system that exhibits long-term stability has to have negative feedback loops. Without negative feedback loops, the state of the system will never stabilize, and chaotic variability will ensue.
Climate scientists posit there is only one feedback effect in play; CO2 causes higher temperatures, which increases the water content of the air, causing more infrared retention, causing higher temperatures. They can get back to me when they can explain what those negative feedback loops are and how they work, and most importantly, why they won't work in this case.

Blogger Fozzy Bear June 11, 2019 2:33 PM  

@35 When there is a refrigerant leak, the danger of suffocation is at floor level, because CFCs are heavier than air. By what mechanism do they reach the stratosphere?

Blogger Snidely Whiplash June 11, 2019 2:42 PM  

NO GOOGLES wrote:Freon does actually destroy ozone very efficiently - which was the whole problem and why they banned it (it was a legitimate reason to ban it).
Yes, Freon catalyzes the breakdown of ozone into O2.
No it is not significant in any way to the ozone layer of the extreme upper atmosphere.
Speaking of feedback loops, you you know what the secondary effect of less O3 in the extreme upper atmosphere would be? Even if Freon were to reach that lofty near-space environment and break down the O3, the net effect would be for the unabsorbed UV radiation to create more O3 in the moderate upper atmosphere, absorbing the excess UV radiation.
There was never any possibility of deadly UV rays destroying crops and giving everybody skin cancer. O2 absorbs most of the UVA radiation, creating O3, which will block the UVB. Yes, this would deplete the ozone layer, by forcing the ozone creation to merely several miles above the surface, rather than tens of miles. The entire panic was a lie from the start, and every person spreading it was either in on it, or a moron.

Blogger Scott Alfter June 11, 2019 2:45 PM  

It's June in Las Vegas, and I can still see snow on Mt. Charleston from here. We've had an unusually mild spring, with moderate temperatures and a normal year's worth of precipitation in the first 4.5 months or so. The surrounding deserts are also still much more green than usual; vegetation normally has long since turned brown, but hasn't yet.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd June 11, 2019 3:10 PM  

Fozzy Bear wrote:By what mechanism do they reach the stratosphere?

The mechanisms are wishful thinking and imagination.

Snidely laid it out well in @42. I'll just add that the ozone hole shows up in the winter, when there is no sun to make ozone, and no sun to screen out. It goes away in the summer, when the sun comes back and starts generating ozone again, just when the ozone is needed.

Blogger tublecane June 11, 2019 3:13 PM  

Lysander Spooner has a university? How do they possibly deal with discipline problems?

"No Treason, Just Reason!"

Blogger Barbarossa June 11, 2019 3:13 PM  

@41 Are you fat shaming the Freon? For shame, you bigot, for shame.

Blogger Balam June 11, 2019 3:17 PM  

NO GOOGLES wrote:Freon does actually destroy ozone very efficiently - which was the whole problem and why they banned it (it was a legitimate reason to ban it).

I find the timing of the banning of Freon and the patent expiring for it the year after to muddle the motivational waters. There's a whole paper written about it which says the thing's wrapped in politic, public relations, money and getting in on the ground floor of regulations to weaken competitors.
"In 1978 the United States banned the use of CFCs such as Freon in aerosol cans, the beginning of a long series of regulatory actions against their use. The critical DuPont manufacturing patent for Freon ("Process for Fluorinating Halohydrocarbons", U.S. Patent #3258500) was set to expire in 1979."
https://infogalactic.com/info/Chlorofluorocarbon

Snidely Whiplash wrote:Every complex system has feedback loops. Any such system that exhibits long-term stability has to have negative feedback loops. Without negative feedback loops, the state of the system will never stabilize, and chaotic variability will ensue.

Climate scientists posit there is only one feedback effect in play; CO2 causes higher temperatures, which increases the water content of the air, causing more infrared retention, causing higher temperatures. They can get back to me when they can explain what those negative feedback loops are and how they work, and most importantly, why they won't work in this case.


You mean like how some people are saying the algae blooms/plant blooms naturally occur when there's more CO2 which ends up sucking the excess CO2 up? Which then would reduce the greenhouse effect.

Blogger tublecane June 11, 2019 3:18 PM  

@4- I hadn't noticed. There was that Democrat Green New Deal not long ago, but I wasn't paying attention. I wouldn't assume it was pushed any harder than the billion other political advertising campaigns we've forgotten.

Peak Warming Hysteria was around 2008 in my memory. I believe Climategate and the hockey-stick fiasco put a hitch in its step. Ever since, it's been constant propaganda, but propaganda we can tell they don't really believe in that much. Because you kinda have to go all-in if you're announcing Judgement Day is nigh at hand.

Blogger LP916 June 11, 2019 3:25 PM  

Are these media printers crazy?

Infusing the (degenerative IQ) r/ Americans with this kind of talk makes the stupid and dangerous even more dangerous or given to immense deadly nihilism.

Missing 411 can't even attain missing person records from nat'l park and rec.

2020 Why doesn't the POTUS need glasses?

He already has 2020!

Stop the AGW lies, wall, return God to America, long list.

Blogger Ska_Boss June 11, 2019 3:35 PM  

Don't worry, they will just move the goalposts yet again. Like when they renamed global warming to climate change.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash June 11, 2019 3:37 PM  

Ska_Boss wrote:Like when they renamed global warming to climate change.
Or the short-lived "Climate Weirding"

Blogger Noah B. June 11, 2019 3:52 PM  

Climate scientists posit there is only one feedback effect in play; CO2 causes higher temperatures, which increases the water content of the air, causing more infrared retention, causing higher temperatures. They can get back to me when they can explain what those negative feedback loops are and how they work, and most importantly, why they won't work in this case.

Time travel is also somehow involved because we know that in recent geological history rising CO2 levels lag behind the warming periods.

Blogger David Ray Milton June 11, 2019 4:21 PM  

Oh, they’re virgins.

Blogger Longtime Lurker June 11, 2019 4:42 PM  

CO2 - Nature's Magic Gas. Is there anything it can't do?

Blogger Don't Call Me Len June 11, 2019 5:35 PM  

Scott Alfter wrote:It's June in Las Vegas, and I can still see snow on Mt. Charleston from here.

"That's climate change too! Everything that happens is proof of climate change, denialists! Bow down before the credentialed ones and stop looking at stuff or the CO2 will come for YOU!"

Blogger Ominous Cowherd June 11, 2019 6:04 PM  

David Ray Milton wrote:Oh, they’re virgins.

Fapping to pron doesn't count as far as the volcano gods are concerned? I guess standards are slipping everywhere.

Blogger Stan_qaz June 11, 2019 6:18 PM  

Phoenix has had snow on the ground in town fairly recently. We have had cold enough winters that a lot of the more fragile decorative cactus and plants have frozen and died several times since I moved here in 2006. High record is 122 and the low 18.

To offset that it is 114 in my back yard right now and it is still warming to whatever the maximum will be.

http://www.coolweather.net/cityclimate/Phoenix_climate_records.htm

Only unusual weather related thing we are seeing is a long term rainfall deficit.

Blogger Dirk Manly June 11, 2019 6:51 PM  

"R134a is better refrigerant anyways - only downsides are that it is more corrosive and requires higher pressures - things that are easily solved by a bit of engineering."

R-134a is a horrible refrigerant in comparison to R-12 and R-14:

1) It's not as thermodynamically efficient as R-12.
2
a) R-12 is odorless, colorless and tasteless, and is an aphyxiant, like carbon dioxide -- it merely crowds out Oxygen -- and first aid for someone caught in a bad R-12 leak is to move them to fresh air.
b) R-134a is odorless, colorless, tasteless, and poisonous (like carbon monoxide, it permanently binds in red blood cells). First aid for R-134a over-exposure is just like that of carbon monoxide -- several days rest for the body to produced more red blood cells, or in extreme cases, blood replacement (blood draining with simultaneous transfusion).
3) R-134a is ONLY compatible with PAG oils (for internal lubrication of bearings, etc.), which are more expensive than common mineral oil. R-134a turns mineral oil into gum.
4) R-134a is more expensive to buy because it's under patent protection, whereas R-12 and nearly all other refrigerants are not.
5) R-12 never gets into the upper atmosphere in significant quantities anyways -- it's too heavy.

Blogger Dirk Manly June 11, 2019 7:00 PM  

@48

"Peak Warming Hysteria was around 2008 in my memory. I believe Climategate and the hockey-stick fiasco put a hitch in its step. Ever since, it's been constant propaganda, but propaganda we can tell they don't really believe in that much. Because you kinda have to go all-in if you're announcing Judgement Day is nigh at hand."

And the fact that the super-rich haven't sold ANY of their ocean-front properties, which, if they believed their own propaganda, they would be selling at cut-rate prices before they get flooded out.

Blogger Rough Carrigan June 11, 2019 7:07 PM  

I've mentioned this before in comments but I recommend that any interested in reading further on this topic should try Montford's book The Hockey Stick Illusion.
https://www.amazon.com/Hockey-Stick-Illusion-W-Montford/dp/0957313527/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=The+Hockey+Stick+Illusion&qid=1560292920&s=gateway&sr=8-1

It's primarily the story of how Canadian mining engineer Stephen McIntyre simply asked the climate scientists of the early 2000's to prove it. They could not. They often refused to give out information so that anyone else could try to verify their studies.

McIntyre briefly got to review submitted papers at one climate science journal to do peer review. He asked for the data sets and computer program of those who submitted papers to try to duplicate their results. The editor of the journal told McIntyre that no reviewer had ever asked for that before.

So much for the value of vaunted peer review.

McIntyre found that multiple studies that were the putative basis for the theory of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) were simply frauds. One "scientist" studied sediments of lakes in Finland with the thesis that there were greater depths of sediment deposited in warmer years and the pattern of those years was claimed to somehow fit AGW. Unfortunately, the guy completely misrepresented the depths of sediments "accidentally" reversing the order of the measured depths so that instead of his thesis being destroyed it was supported.

Another "scientist" had a theory based on the thickness of tree rings. Thicker tree rings were indicative of greater temperatures and a series of inferences was supposed to be drawn circumstantially proving AGW. But when McIntyre actually looked into that man's study he found that the entire thing, the whole damn thing came down to a single tree in Siberia. One.

But the king of climate science fraud was the guy who had concocted the famous hockey stick graph purporting to show that temperatures were going to shoot up because that's how they allegedly always did in response to rising CO2. This guy's name is Michael Mann but unlike the director of the same name his fictions aren't entertaining or even enlightening in the way of showing an aphorism. Mann resisted tooth and nail giving out data or his program. He just wanted it to be the catalyst for instituting authoritarian gov't world wide. Did he really have to bother with that stuff? Stephen McIntyre thought so and doggedly pursued Mann's fraud. The only reason Mann hasn't been jailed or forced to work in the custodial staff cleaning a jail is that the establishment cannot admit how badly it was lying to the populace.

Blogger Kristophr June 11, 2019 7:11 PM  

Anthropogenic Plate tectonics will be the next big thing, if Anthropogenic Global Warming wears out its welcome.

Blogger sammibandit June 11, 2019 7:22 PM  

Jews trying to fight Nature? That's hogwash. They're totally deep eco-fascist and everyone knows they taught Germans and First Nations how to tend to wild forest. Jeez, guys. I bet you all think the Wendigo is a jew named Larry and not a cannibal outcast.

Blogger Brett baker June 11, 2019 8:07 PM  

Because no one wants to be alive when the Gods make things interesting. Post-WW2 we had less extreme weather than statistics would say we "should", now we're getting more. "My life isn't supposed to have any problems" is the mentality.

Blogger Quadko June 11, 2019 8:34 PM  

The movie avatar also qualifies as a computer model of environmental nature. Probably has more dollars and man hours in it than ones in the sign. So obviously we have 12 years before humans turn blue.

Blogger JonM June 11, 2019 9:42 PM  

Data that contradicts anthroprogenic climate change is "weather". Weather that supports it is data.

Blogger Jack Amok June 11, 2019 10:14 PM  

"EEEEEEdiots! Why did they put a date on the sign? Didn't they get the "another 12 years" memo? They should have just said the glaciers would be gone in "another 12 years. Now we have to go explain another failed prediction..."

The last time I was at Glacier for vacation there was a woman crying over the glaciers and how we are destroying the planet.

Some folks have started noticing PTSD-like symptoms in young people when Nature comes up. They've been marinated in so much doomsday environmental rhetoric by the schools and media that they just reflexively shun anything to do with Nature. They don't want to deal with the negative emotions that have been implanted in them.

Blogger monamala June 11, 2019 11:12 PM  

@47 Did you happen to know the paper you were referring to in relation to freon?

Blogger Zach June 12, 2019 12:16 AM  

@Jack Amok,

That's demonic.

Homeschool or die.

Get kids out into nature. Early and often.

And away from screen time.

Blogger PJW Gent June 12, 2019 8:03 AM  

KPKinSunnyPhiladelphia wrote:We have limits, significant limits, in predicting the activity of chaotic systems. That's why the predictive work of "climate science" is not science in the Popperian sense of hypothesis testing and evaluating data outputs that may falsify that hypothesis.

It's model building, and that is not science.


True model building is engineering. I work with a group of highly talented system engineers who do MBSE (Model-base System Engineering) and it is the only way to understand complex computer/information systems and determine development risk and track problem areas. What becomes immediately obvious is that all models are only as good as the modelers doing the work and how accurately they map the inputs/outputs/interfaces of the system in relation to chosen model(classification framework that defines what you are trying to show).

Models can be fudged to show what you want and to hide what you don't want, so clear specifications and honest deconstruction and mapping become paramount. In the right hands they are a godsend. In the wrong ones, they propaganda par excellence.

Blogger Avalanche June 12, 2019 10:22 AM  

@28 "There was also a petition to put the Groundhog in jail for a false prediction-- he supposedly didn't see his shadow."

We've just been waiting for Congress to subpoena the text messages about this. Didn't Jim Comey mark this discussion Above Top Secret, or was that McCabe? Anyway, many thanks to Judicial Watch for suing under FOIA to get these!


#UN-IPCC 30 Jan 2019
Look Furface, you better report precisely what we TELL you to report, or it's foxes and coyotes for you and all your family!

#PunxatawneyPhil 30 Jan 2019
But... but ... there will be photos and people watching, just like every year! How will I prevent the truth from getting out? PLEASE don't hurt my cubs!

#UN-IPCC 30 Jan 2019
Do as you're told, and we'll handle the press! Foxes and coyotes... Remember!

Blogger Avalanche June 12, 2019 10:33 AM  

@60 "I've mentioned this before in comments but I recommend that any interested in reading further on this topic should try Montford's book The Hockey Stick Illusion."

Or, if you like a vindictive laugh, Mark Steyn's 'lawsuit-answering' book "A Disgrace to the Profession; The World's Scientists ~ in their own words ~ Michael Mann, His Hockey Stick and Their Damage to Science" quoting scientist after scientist after scientist after scientist debunking the hockey stick and the idiot Michael Mann!

Loved the Amz review title: "Another Canadian plays hockey with Michael Mann as the puck."

Blogger Avalanche June 12, 2019 10:49 AM  

@69 "What becomes immediately obvious is that all models are only as good as the modelers doing the work and how accurately they map the inputs/outputs/interfaces of the system in relation to chosen model(classification framework that defines what you are trying to show)."

You left out the largest aspect of why models and modelers don't work well -- or at all -- in climate "guessing."

There must be SOUND and validated data to put into a model! WHEN one is guessing the yearly average temperature of ALL the oceans and seas on the planet on the basis of very few 'temperature readings, some of which were done by dropping a thermometer off the stern of a ship in two separate seas but none in other seas, and some of which are based on satellite readings through... oh, oops! ... through actual weather! Then doesn't matter how good your modelers are, and how accurately they map -- because the data is garbage.

Even the shore-side temperatures are b.s.! There was this terrible warming trend -- in the 70's, was it? -- which turned out to be a result of the Soviets running out of money to support their temperature-recording stations, many of which were in Siberia! BRRRRRR; never mind.

Plus, the U.S. stopped careful, never mind scientific, management of many of theirs. "We" just quit gathering data from some; and others -- once-upon-a-time out in the semi-wild fields -- that now sit 30-some-feet from an industrial A/C compressor or 100' from a jet runaway!


It's that one-tree in Siberia problem: G.I.G.O.

Blogger KPKinSunnyPhiladelphia June 12, 2019 11:04 AM  

PJW Gent wrote:

True model building is engineering. I work with a group of highly talented system engineers who do MBSE (Model-base System Engineering) and it is the only way to understand complex computer/information systems and determine development risk and track problem areas. What becomes immediately obvious is that all models are only as good as the modelers doing the work and how accurately they map the inputs/outputs/interfaces of the system in relation to chosen model(classification framework that defines what you are trying to show).

Models can be fudged to show what you want and to hide what you don't want, so clear specifications and honest deconstruction and mapping become paramount. In the right hands they are a godsend. In the wrong ones, they propaganda par excellence


Agreed.

The distinction you make is critical -- engineering and design require model building and are scientific in that they test constrained hypotheses. The inputs are manageable in number and complexity, the outputs can have a direct correspondence to the the inputs.

The wheel turns at the right speed with the right force, the composite bends under duress but does not break and snaps back into acceptable alignment when the force is removed, and so on and so on. And even if you can't quite see and measure what's happening internally -- for example at the quantum level -- the math explains the outputs clearly.

In contrast, large chaotic systems are very difficult, it not impossible, to model, especially with extensive spatial and temporal scales because the inputs are so numerous and interactions between them are even MORE numerous. Building a bridge, or a car, or the a large super collider is simple in comparison.



Blogger Balam June 12, 2019 11:35 AM  

monamala wrote:@47 Did you happen to know the paper you were referring to in relation to freon?

Yeah there are two worth looking at which argue different points of view.
"Ethics of Du Pont's CFC Strategy 1975-1995" which is pretty generous towards them and
"There's money in the air: the CFC ban and DuPont's regulatory strategy" which takes a harsher view.
The PDFs are easily found, so feel free to ignore any links that demand you pay for them.

Blogger James Dixon June 12, 2019 1:27 PM  

> #PunxatawneyPhil

No one outside PA cares what he says. We have our own local groundhogs who are experts on the local weather (French Creek Freddie in our case).

Blogger Engineer-Poet June 12, 2019 8:49 PM  

"5) R-12 never gets into the upper atmosphere in significant quantities anyways"

It's stuff like this which makes me wonder if anyone ever bothers to look up evidence, instead of believing only what they get from talk radio and ideological web sites.

Peak stratospheric concentration of R-12 came to about 0.8 ppbv of Cl.  Since 1 molecule of CCl2F2 has 2 atoms of Cl, we can compare this directly to tropospheric concentrations.  Recent (2016) tropospheric concentration of CCl2F2 was 516 ppt or just over 1 ppbv Cl, not a whole lot more than the stratospheric fraction of Cl it contributes.

"... it's too heavy."

If that were true, you'd also see major differences in atmospheric concentration of all species by molecular weight vs. altitude.  You'd see oxygen, but especially carbon dioxide concentrated at the bottom of the column.

The total atmospheric concentration of CO2 is about 415 ppmv, coming to about 6.5 kg per square meter or something in excess of 3 meters of equivalent volume of the total air column at sea level.  Ask yourself:  do you find it impossible to breathe at ground level because you're smothered by the CO2?  Or is the atmosphere sufficiently well-mixed by turbulence that this is something you just don't have to worry about above ground, save in rare events like the Lake Nyos disaster?  (Why didn't the CO2 plume of the Lake Nyos disaster continue to kill people for days or months?  Because turbulent mixing got rid of the dangerous CO2 levels by dilution within hours, that's why!)

The most dangerous propagandists are the ones you fail to question because you believe they are on "your" side.  I spend a lot of my time taking apart Green propaganda, but it's not the only propaganda out there.  It is ALL contrary to the truth, and all engineered to make you act against your interests.

"Models can be fudged to show what you want and to hide what you don't want, so clear specifications and honest deconstruction and mapping become paramount. In the right hands they are a godsend. In the wrong ones, they propaganda par excellence."

Truer words... but be very careful and go to the most original sources you can find.  There is not just ideological bias, there is also simple error.

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