ALL BLOG POSTS AND COMMENTS COPYRIGHT (C) 2003-2018 VOX DAY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION IS EXPRESSLY PROHIBITED.

Monday, July 15, 2019

The Thucydidean trap closes

China is beginning to wield its economic power:
The Chinese foreign ministry has warned that American firms would be banned from doing business in China if they are involved in any arms deals with Taiwan.

“In order to safeguard national interests, China will impose sanctions on US companies involved in arms sales to Taiwan,” foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told reporters on Monday. “The Chinese government and Chinese companies will not cooperate and do business with these US firms,” he added.

Answering reporters’ questions, Geng said the details about such companies and the timeline of any penalties against them will not be disclosed at present.
As the world's sole economic superpower, the USA has been throwing its weight around this way for decades. But now China has the ability to do so as well, and due to its much larger population and larger economy (in PPP terms), it will likely be able to wield this power more effectively than the USA in the future.

Labels: ,

102 Comments:

Blogger Nate July 15, 2019 11:10 AM  

no. China is panicking because it realizes the long run is here. China's population is old and fast approaching useless. They don't have a way out and they are going for a last second hail mary.

That's reality. The nation renowned for playing the long game blew it... and now the old familiar rise and collapse pattern is about to switch back to the dimmer side.

Blogger VFM Bear July 15, 2019 11:12 AM  

And I for one welcome our new Chinese overlords.

"What steamed Rice, however, was Zhao's assertion that "If you're in Washington, D.C., you know the white never go to the SW area, because it's an area for the black & Latin," adding "There's a saying ‘black in & white out’, which means that as long as a black family enters, white people will quit, & price of the apartment will fall sharply.""

"

Responding directly to Rice, Zhao said "You are such a disgrace, too. And shockingly ignorant, too. I am based in Islamabad. Truth hurts. I am simply telling the truth." "

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-15/racist-disgrace-susan-rice-steamed-chinese-diplomat-who-says-black-families-ruin

Blogger Whitecloak July 15, 2019 11:14 AM  

@1 Even if their population were cut in half they'd still have more than triple the population of Actual Americans, without the gigantic deadweight of nine figures worth of leaches.

We're the ones who need to worry, not them.

Blogger Stilicho July 15, 2019 11:15 AM  

@ Vox ppp? What measure is that?

@Nate what are the demographic stats you are referring to?

On a broader note, China will stop doing business with US defense firms? Oh please don't throw me in dat briar patch, br'er Fox...

Blogger Nate July 15, 2019 11:16 AM  

there is a fantastic chart that shows china's population's age compared to the US. it shows quite clearly how doomed china is. i'll try to find it.

Blogger Ingot9455 July 15, 2019 11:17 AM  

I think we can agree that everyone needs to worry.

For example, both California and Illinois have hilariously untenable pension problems. It's just likely that Illinois will hit the breaking point first.

Blogger Nation-Deprived July 15, 2019 11:18 AM  

I also welcome our Chinese masters, as well as their steamed rice.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash July 15, 2019 11:19 AM  

"Dear Boeing,..."

Blogger Nate July 15, 2019 11:20 AM  

https://static.businessinsider.com/image/56322c41dd089538038b4624/image.jpg

The boomer die off will help the US a lot as it relates to median population age. China has no such hope.

Blogger Nate July 15, 2019 11:21 AM  

"For example, both California and Illinois have hilariously untenable pension problems. It's just likely that Illinois will hit the breaking point first. "

debt default is not nearly as big a deal as people think it is.

Blogger Whitecloak July 15, 2019 11:22 AM  

@9 The Boomer die off damns us. They represent quite a bit of competence that was not transmitted to successor generations and the demographic weight to keep the Woke from total dominance.

We are going to miss them, though we may despise what they wrought.

Blogger Nate July 15, 2019 11:26 AM  

". They represent quite a bit of competence that was not transmitted to successor generations and the demographic weight to keep the Woke from total dominance."

Your black suppository is working over time Nancy. Go clean your room.

Blogger ZhukovG July 15, 2019 11:28 AM  

PPP = Purchasing Power Parity. A measure of a country's economy taking in to account local conditions, such as cost of living, cost of goods etc...

It's generally a better indicator than just raw US Dollar economic measuring.

Blogger KPKinSunnyPhiladelphia July 15, 2019 11:32 AM  

VD wrote:
As the world's sole economic superpower, the USA has been throwing its weight around this way for decades. But now China has the ability to do so as well, and due to its much larger population and larger economy (in PPP terms), it will likely be able to wield this power more effectively than the USA in the future.

Ya think? Not if the GE has anything to do with it.

Meanwhile, how are those high IQ but non-creative Hannies going to police this? Stop doing business with any company that supplies component parts to, say, the M1 Abrams, which we're going to sell to the Taiwanese? No more business with, for example, Honeywell, that provides the gas turbine engines?

Honeywell has 13,000 employees in China. Is China going to kick them out?

Or just General Dynamics, who does the assembly? Sure, they sell civilian aircraft but do very little business in China. I'm sure they are apoplectic.

Lockheed Martin? China is trying to develop a fusion reactor with them. Gonna give that up?

Right now the threat is very very empty. The Chinese are great at posturing. So let's see how that empty threat gets filled. I'm skeptical it will matter.

Blogger Nate July 15, 2019 11:34 AM  

We've been hearing this China garbage for 20 years. The Coming Chinese Super Power is the Climate Chang of geo-political discussion.

Blogger Wazdakka July 15, 2019 11:35 AM  

Here is a link to a decent chart. The success/failure of the one child policy is about to hit them hard.
https://www.indexmundi.com/china/age_structure.html

Blogger Longtime Lurker July 15, 2019 11:36 AM  

China's sanctions are an obvious expression of Chicom displeasure with U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. China's sanctions are currently perceived as symbolic because they are not expected to hurt General Dynamics or Raytheon, which do not export arms to China. (Subcontractors might be a different story.)

Should China seek to sanction third-country buyers of arms manufactured by General Dynamics or Raytheon - Saudi Arabia (M1A1 tanks) or South Korea (F-16s), for example - then we will see whether China can best the U.S.A. in a toe-to-toe fight for geopolitical influence in regions that matter.

In the meantime, China has to cope with the disruptive effects of President Trump's geoeconomic offensive, which is undermining China's economic growth while food prices in China are going through the roof. (Google "pork prices and China".)

China's prestige (i.e., reputation for power) is clearly on the rise, but it has not faced serious U.S. pushback since the Cold War. And China is more economically vulnerable today because its trade and technology interests are more exposed to foreign pressure than in the past.

Blogger Avalanche July 15, 2019 11:36 AM  

@2 You left out the best part:

Now do AOC https://t.co/yS45ICkDCU
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 15, 2019

Blogger pdwalker July 15, 2019 11:38 AM  

Nate,

Have you ever been to China? Say in the last 10 years or so?

Blogger Whitecloak July 15, 2019 11:39 AM  

@12 Hardly a black pill, an appraisal of the situation. Even a righting of the ship is going to come with difficulties.

The black pill would be to despair in those difficulties. We need not despair, but it is absurd to think that a majority minority US is going to be of the same caliber as the US of our grandparents.

Blogger Nate July 15, 2019 11:39 AM  

China has no idea how to deal with Trump. it knows it can't handle him… so it is desperately trying to create relationships elsewhere... and it is trying to do so in such a way that will guarantee it has the upper hand.

I think of 1986... back when everyone thought the USSR was over taking the US. The writing was on the wall. Except it was all a sham. China is every bit the same sham... with their fake cities built on pure mal-investment... and their giant population of old useless men.

Blogger Nate July 15, 2019 11:42 AM  

"Have you ever been to China? Say in the last 10 years or so?"

Nope. I don't visit shithole countries.

Blogger tublecane July 15, 2019 11:46 AM  

Finally stickin it to that pesky Chiang.

Blogger Longtime Lurker July 15, 2019 11:46 AM  

@21: China has major "grand strategic weaknesses," but so does the United States. If China loses its imperial cohesion first, then the United States wins (Cold War Redux). If the United States loses it imperial cohesion first, then China wins.

The stakes could not be higher.

Blogger Nate July 15, 2019 11:47 AM  

"China has major "grand strategic weaknesses," but so does the United States."

yep. but their cancer is further along.

Blogger Stilicho July 15, 2019 11:47 AM  

PPP is closely related to quality of life (in economic measures anyway). I wonder at what point the Chinese become "comfortably Han" such that an equilibrium can be possible between China, the West, and other Asian nations in the neighborhood. Increased affluence, pressure to limit population, and historic Chinese inward focus may help us avoid war. Depends on how far China wants to extend its rule as well as its economic dominance. As well as what Chinese expansion will be accepted by US without military confrontation. Tough nut to crack.

Blogger pyrrhus July 15, 2019 11:50 AM  

@21 > Except it was all a sham. China is every bit the same sham... with their fake cities built on pure mal-investment... and their giant population of old useless men.

Sounds a whole lot like the USA, much of whose "GDP" is based on government salaries, benefits and pensions, with the rest being heavily amplified by huge prices in the University and medical areas...e.g. medical Operations that cost a few hundred dollars in many countries are priced at 60-100,000 dollars in the US....And then there are the "hedonic" adjustments...Stats re the US economy is largely based on massive borrowing and massive, unadjusted for, inflation...Real GDP done the old way, by output of businesses, is less than half what the US claims

Blogger Long Live The West July 15, 2019 11:55 AM  

A massive trade deficit meant we couldn't lose the tradewar. When the U.S. throws its economic weight around it means taking away the sweet deals all our trading partners get. When China tries to do the same all it means is that they'll lose money.

China is like those empty cities they build. It looks nice on the outside, but there's nothing there. Any type of conflict brings out the fact that China is not as strong as they've tried to convince everyone they are.

Blogger Brint July 15, 2019 11:57 AM  

@16 is a more useful and telling chart than @9

I am more concerned about 160MM young males itching to make a name for themselves in the name of China than the 160MM older males that are supposedly dragging the country down.

Blogger doctrev July 15, 2019 11:57 AM  

Even if China goes first, it doesn't matter to Americans if their fraud collapses. The American scam will too. Given the pressure the Chinese are under, this is only going to accelerate American corporations heading for the exits.

The Great Collapse comes closer.

Blogger pyrrhus July 15, 2019 11:59 AM  

China's cohesion is a great deal better than America's, with China being more than 80% Han, not even counting all the exPat Han all over the world...And the Han rule with an iron hand...Any Diversity that makes noise quickly discovers that it made a serious mistake, nor will Han news sources report any of the noise...

Blogger Longtime Lurker July 15, 2019 12:03 PM  

And if the United States and China both lose, Russia wins.

Did you hear that Vladimir?!

Blogger ZhukovG July 15, 2019 12:03 PM  

All China has to do is fly their old people to Central America and have them come across the USA southern border. Problem solved.

Blogger Whitecloak July 15, 2019 12:03 PM  

@31 It surely doesn't hurt that the Chinese official propaganda serves to build up their people rather than tear them down.

How much US official propaganda is meant to humiliate and destroy us, rather than giving us hope?

Blogger ZhukovG July 15, 2019 12:04 PM  

In a hundred years people will analyze how Russia became the world's dominate power. Maybe.

Blogger pyrrhus July 15, 2019 12:05 PM  

China does have major food problems, which is why it is moving aggressively into parts of Africa and the rural Ukraine...In that respect, Russia is very well off, and will be even better off if any global warming ever shows up....

Blogger Crew July 15, 2019 12:08 PM  

If China loses its imperial cohesion first, then the United States wins (Cold War Redux). If the United States loses it imperial cohesion first, then China wins.

It is probably China who is financing all those illegal alien caravans through Mexico ...

Blogger pyrrhus July 15, 2019 12:09 PM  

As long as Russia sticks to its present course, with good leadership after Putin, it is looking like the dominant country for the longer run, given its massive natural resources, especially in energy.

Blogger pyrrhus July 15, 2019 12:11 PM  

@32 No, Russia wins regardless if it sticks to its own corner of the world...There will be chaos in most of the rest of the world...

Blogger Longtime Lurker July 15, 2019 12:18 PM  

@39: Russia as the indispensable Eurasian Power. Can tilt East, West, or North (Arctic region) as geopolitical circumstances require. (Russia is not quite there yet, but it's close.)

Trump intuitively grasps Russia's importance that way, hence his desire to improve relations with Moscow. Maybe someday Washington will too. But not today.

Blogger Ingot9455 July 15, 2019 12:19 PM  

China has food problems? What's the matter, can't they eat melamine like as is in the food they send to us?

Blogger Nate July 15, 2019 12:19 PM  

"Sounds a whole lot like the USA, much of whose "GDP" is based on government salaries, benefits and pensions,"

Yes. no one is arguing that the US is fine. We are a long way from fine. We're dying as well. But the fact that we are dying has nothing to do with the fact that China is also dying.

The world is not binary. Both can fail. In fact.. both will fail.

China bet its future on an endless supply of slave labor...and it turned out that the supply was not endless after all. Now China can't feed itself and is grasping at straws.

America bet its future on a never ending supply of debt. That also turned out to be a lie. But America, unlike China, has epic potential energy growth.. and it has india sitting over there... the new china... ready to be the new slave labor hub for the world.

in short yeah... we are both screwed but America has a few more cards to play... while china has late stage pancreatic cancer.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash July 15, 2019 12:25 PM  

Longtime Lurker wrote:If the United States loses it imperial cohesion first, then China wins.


And we lose... well what exactly? Nothing of value that I can see.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd July 15, 2019 12:31 PM  

Nate wrote:The boomer die off will help the US a lot as it relates to median population age.

It will help us, period. I've been waiting all my life for those damn boomers to get out of the way.

KPKinSunnyPhiladelphia wrote:Meanwhile, how are those high IQ but non-creative Hannies going to police this?

However it suits them. They'll use that as an excuse to hammer the ones they want to hammer. They aren't stupid enough to go all zero tolerance and hurt themselves.

Blogger 🐻Drew🐻 July 15, 2019 12:33 PM  

Forgive me as I'm not nearly as informed as 1/2 the people one here. I was under the assumption our business in China is already very limited and regulated by the government, the Chinese market being very closed off for US business. Will this really hurt us that much? The US can retaliate with more impact since our markets are more open to china?

On a side note I saw that tweet, and if true, I would welcome a change to these overlords at least compared to the anti-white/European narrative the current overlords push.

Blogger Longtime Lurker July 15, 2019 12:34 PM  

@42: The importance of food prices to political stability cannot be overemphasized. Starving people are unlikely to revolt because they lack the energy to do so. But people who fear they won't be able to feed themselves or their families - because food prices are rocketing - will take to the streets.

The United States typically runs an agricultural export surplus. But North America experienced one the wettest winters in 50 years (thanks to the solar minimum) and U.S. farmers have not been able to plant as much as they would otherwise (i.e., because soggy fields).

USDA reports show significant under-planting of corn and soybeans, but USDA data is questionable given deficiencies in its reporting system. Which means the problem of under-planting could be significantly overstated. Or not.

I'm uncertain about conditions in Russia, but China is having difficulty.

Bottomline: If normally reliable food exporters cannot export enough to feed the world, expect to read about food riots in any number of vulnerable countries, including China.

Blogger VFM #7634 July 15, 2019 12:43 PM  

We've been hearing this China garbage for 20 years. The Coming Chinese Super Power is the Climate Chang of geo-political discussion.

@15 Nate
"Climate Chang"

Dunno if that was intentional, but I laughed.

Blogger Crew July 15, 2019 12:45 PM  

@46: At least one report claims Russia and the Ukraine will increase exports of wheat for the 2019/2020 season. They seem not to grow much soybeans, which may be why they have so few soy boys.

https://www.agriculture.com/markets/newswire/black-sea-wheat-exports-seen-rising-4-in-201920-poll

Blogger Clay July 15, 2019 12:53 PM  

As they say, "money talks; bullshit walks" China has been threatening the US with the take-over of Taiwan for how much? 50 years? They don't want it, anymore. Just bluff and bluster to create their own islands in the S. China Sea.

Blogger dienw July 15, 2019 12:59 PM  

@44 It will help us, period. I've been waiting all my life for those damn boomers to get out of the way.

Keep waiting. by the time we Boomers die off, the generation after you will have filled the spots you are waiting for; get off your butt, gird your loins and act on what you want to do.

I don't think Vox is waited for European Boomers to die off.

Blogger Chris Mallory July 15, 2019 1:00 PM  

Longtime Lurker wrote:The United States typically runs an agricultural export surplus. But North America experienced one the wettest winters in 50 years (thanks to the solar minimum) and U.S. farmers have not been able to plant as much as they would otherwise (i.e., because soggy fields).



Southern Illinois is still under water and the current rain from TS Barry isn't going to help things. There is farmland that has barges stranded on it after they broke through levies. East Cape is now an island forcing residents to boat or wade in and out.

West Kentucky is wet, but the corn has been planted and was six foot high on July 4th. The soybean fields have good crops in them as well.

Blogger RobertT July 15, 2019 1:01 PM  

The Global economy is a thing of the past. NATO, Mddle East, US in the process of leaving. Energy independence makes a huge difference. The US no longer has a reason to hold the world order together.

Blogger dienw July 15, 2019 1:03 PM  

@ 46
The question is will those who control the agriculture futures ship food overseas and leave the residue for us or does the U.S. market have per-eminence. Soros is one of the top 3 controllers of grain futures; who will he sell to first?

Blogger swiftfoxmark2 July 15, 2019 1:05 PM  

Nate wrote:
in short yeah... we are both screwed but America has a few more cards to play... while china has late stage pancreatic cancer.


I can definitely see that. The US appears to be making a subtle turnaround culturally, the effects of which probably won't be apparent for another generation or two.

If the US culture as a whole recaptures its Christian roots, the end of this century could see a strong United States, even if the country itself doesn't exist.

China has outright lied about its economic prosperity ever since they opened up to the rest of the world. Communists were never really good at anything except lying.

Blogger Tars Tarkas July 15, 2019 1:05 PM  

Nate wrote:https://static.businessinsider.com/image/56322c41dd089538038b4624/image.jpg

The boomer die off will help the US a lot as it relates to median population age. China has no such hope.


The difference is that the young in China are Chinese while the young in America are barely 1/2 American.

The Chinese have problems and are not perfect, but America has way bigger problems. They do not have large populations of foreigners who constantly agitate against them. They elite in China are entirely Chinese. They do not have a huge minority of Jews running their country for the benefit of another country. It is not filled with traitors either.

The worst that can happen to China is they become poor again. It's not the end of the world. The worst that can happen in America is far worse.

Blogger Clay July 15, 2019 1:10 PM  

Oh, yeah...the Boomers die off...now we have those geniuses like the "squad" who want to erase the debts the millennials voted upon, Open Borders, free health insurance for illegal aliens, free "college education")...to perpetuate the ignorance, @44. How old are you? You idiot.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd July 15, 2019 1:12 PM  

Wazdakka wrote:Here is a link to a decent chart.

I notice that the pink lines are shorter than the blue lines, at every level. That's not how you make a stable society. Their dependency ratio is bad and going to be getting worse for a long time.

They might want a war to kill off some excess males, but that's just going to make that dependency ratio worse. They don't have a lot of good choices.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd July 15, 2019 1:15 PM  

Clay wrote:... the Boomers die off...now we have those geniuses like the "squad" ...

You mean the children the boomers ``raised?''

Blogger Clay July 15, 2019 1:16 PM  

I will try to end by saying....the destruction of the US has come thru the Public Schools.

Blogger A rebel without a General July 15, 2019 1:21 PM  

Same as of right now I would welcome Chinese or Russian dominance it beats the current (((overlords))) by a long mile.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd July 15, 2019 1:28 PM  

Clay wrote:I will try to end by saying....the destruction of the US has come thru the Public Schools.

Nobody's going to argue with that.

Blogger Doktor Jeep July 15, 2019 1:34 PM  

China lacks two things.
Diversity and boomers.

Blogger Azimus July 15, 2019 1:38 PM  

For the ilk, what is the ideal end-game between China and United States? I don't see a war as profitable - as far as I'm concerned:

- They can have their string-of-shit-pearl empire in Africa and South Asia. Have at 'er boys! Hope you enjoy the suicide attacks on the checkpoints! If they control the rare earth metals needed for batteries, maybe we just don't need cellphones that bad.

- I would like to see "Made in America" on more things - many more things. Let our people have the steady-wage jobs that provide families with pride and dignity and self reliance.

- All American troops to the Western Hemisphere, except maybe a handful of naval bases.

- The end of Walmart and megalithic corporations that profit off of giving the population slight discounts on slave-built products to their long-term hurt.

- The end of all agricultural exports to China. You so big and strong? Then feed your people by yourself, Ji Shin-Pig.

- Stop agitating Russia and court them away from China. Russia is 1/10 the power that China is, but you're less likely to pick a fight when you don't know the odds - and having someone behind their back that they can't trust would go a long way to cool the adventurism.

Blogger Steve July 15, 2019 1:50 PM  

Don't threaten me with a good time.

CEO's will be annoyed at fewer opportunities for short-term rent extraction, but doing "business" with China seems to be mostly about them ripping you off six ways from Sunday while they figure out how to steal your IP.

Blogger pyrrhus July 15, 2019 2:00 PM  

O/T Somalian journalist goes back to Somalia to disprove racist narrative, gets blown up....

Blogger Duh-ave July 15, 2019 2:04 PM  

@29 The Chinese 'one child' policy (est.1979) started an inverse geometric progression that made 8 grandparents share a single grandchild. Is it wise to trust a CIA chart? Maybe a Soylent Green plan will save them but there's a lot of stress in that too.

Blogger Ken Prescott July 15, 2019 2:06 PM  

"The Coming Chinese Super Power is the Climate Chang of geo-political discussion."

I see what you did there.

Blogger pyrrhus July 15, 2019 2:13 PM  

@66 The Chinese one child policy was widely violated by Communist officials and those who could afford to bribe them.....

Blogger Welsh Woodsman July 15, 2019 2:15 PM  

CEO's will be annoyed at fewer opportunities for short-term rent extraction, but doing "business" with China seems to be mostly about them ripping you off six ways from Sunday while they figure out how to steal your IP.

You clearly have never done business with the Chinese

Blogger JG July 15, 2019 2:30 PM  

China is more ethnically diverse than most people realize. Mandarin Chinese is the dominant language, and Han Chinese are the dominant ethnic group, but there are still dozens of languages spoken throughout China and many other cultures. It is only that the Han Chinese are quite brutal when it comes to dissent that the country doesn't fragment.

As far as calling China a shithole, well, that's just flat out wrong. There are many excellent places to live in China, and with a cost of living 1/5th the USA, a pretty comfortable place to retire. Assuming, of course, you are clever enough to get in and have sufficient wealth to entice the natives.

Blogger HouellebecqGurl July 15, 2019 2:36 PM  

Why in the world would you still have hope and faith in America?

Blogger HouellebecqGurl July 15, 2019 2:37 PM  

Their biggest issue is how thinly they've spread themselves around the globe.

Blogger HouellebecqGurl July 15, 2019 2:49 PM  

Han are around 90% of the pop & the other 10% are mostly some Asian variant. This means near homogeneity, without a mass influx of Indians, Pakis, Somalians, Eritreans, Hondurans, Squatemalens, El Salvadorean, etc.
We are screwed. Completely.
China does have many issues, there are large parts of the country just emerging from 3rd world into 2nd world & it's still a huge struggle to feed a significant portion of the population. That said, calling it a shit hole is totally wrong and underestimating it is naive.

Also, my money is, as always, on Japan. They will weather the future the best, as they actively prepare for it daily with their leaner homogenized population.

Blogger Duh-ave July 15, 2019 3:19 PM  

@68 No doubt you are correct but to what degree? Don't know who did the counting but at last count only 800,000 have applied for permission to have a second child since the policy was 'relaxed' several years ago.

Blogger Robin July 15, 2019 3:23 PM  

Rubble bounced

Blogger Ben Cohen July 15, 2019 3:30 PM  

China is just going back to its normal historical role of controlling and defending it's sphere of influence after the disaster when the last dynasty fell.

Blogger Brett baker July 15, 2019 3:42 PM  

Shhh, you'll trigger the blackpillers.

Blogger wahr01 July 15, 2019 3:57 PM  

The only economic power China has is that given to it by the USA.

Its economy is utterly dependent upon US consumption, and Trump's Tariffs have been pushing it into an economic tailspin. This is the reason they've been "activating" all their bribed cronies in the swamp such as Amash and Biden.

This is, of course, in addition to its demographic issues which were predicted and are now coming to a head and destroying its cheap labor advantage even further.

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/china-s-population-poised-to-crash-in-perfect-demographic-storm-ezcKRbTd30SRV-h19cjmaw/


China is a strong regional power capable of defending itself if attacked, but in terms of global and economic power it is a cardboard cutout of a tiger.

Blogger God Emperor Memes July 15, 2019 4:01 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Crew July 15, 2019 4:28 PM  

@68: Heh, yes, I know someone whose father was in the PLA and had three daughters ... after the OCP.

Also, I hear there was widespread refusal to register daughters ...

Blogger weka July 15, 2019 4:55 PM  

Not quite. They are dealing with the fallout of the one china policy, agreed, and they have not made the cultural shift back to families -- the Buddhists and communists lack faith. The bigger problem is that half their growth is being wasted, and they are pissing off the nations that geographically should be in their sphere of influence.

The Americans are fugly diplomats but the Chinese are worse.

Blogger Meng Greenleaf July 15, 2019 6:30 PM  

VFM Bear wrote:"What steamed Rice,....
Nice :)

As a general comment: Anecdotally, I have noticed the once-American owned Hotel that I live at in China when I work there is quickly showing it's age. I think the pollution wreaks havoc on stone, sand, trees, people.... I wear a full-on ventilated mask when I'm out and about (on bad days anyway).

China may be starting a downward trend - but the USA is literally in free-fall. The only thing I can imagine that will save the USA is electing a far-right/left nationalist dictator.

The Chinese are employing a few tricks that may help them alleviate their slow decline and even reverse it. A law requiring children in order to receive a pension for example. Their genetics institute and research in genomics, intelligence and disposition, they're a relatively free-market at the coal face, they have a natural high IQ, huge population, the way they're dealing with the West of China (I visited last year) shows grit and determination.

The USA has a lot of things going for it and, again, maybe a dictator can turn it around. It's not an either or. These are two different countries on slightly different paths.

I'd be happy to give the Trumps a try :)

Blogger TheLiberatorOfBados July 15, 2019 6:33 PM  

Anybody that has followed Conservative Treehouse knows that Trump has spent the entire moment of the start of his presidency going after and economically locking off China. They are a defanged, detoothed paper tiger at this point. They need us more than we need them, and Trump's tariffs are hurting them...badly. It's becoming increasingly clear that Trump doesn't really want a trade reset with them. He knew they'd try to jerk him around. Now he's going to punish them.

In the meantime businesses are fleeing China, or beginning the process of fleeing, either to other parts of SE Asia that Trump already said he would let take up the slack that China would be creating, or back to the US. Ultimately, they're screwed. This isn't 4D chess so much as Trump knows how to make money work for him the same way a lot of these scummy globalists do...only he's making it work FOR the US rather than against it. They'll either cry uncle and make a deal or they'll implode and you'll see massive social unrest that even the communist government will be helpless to contain.

Blogger RusticFederalist July 15, 2019 6:42 PM  

At this point we are beyond the point of being able to kill China's economy, and it will hurt ours to embargo China's commerce with us, but it would be healthier for us and the planet to embargo ourselves from trade and immigration with China and India. America and Canada should set this policy together in confederation.

But it doesn't look like we are going that direction.

Blogger FreedMind0102 July 15, 2019 7:06 PM  

RUBBLE BOUNCED

Blogger Aurelius Gomez July 15, 2019 8:57 PM  

So many of China's men have no women and very tiny penis'. They have nothing to fight for. Their women even choose Western men when they have the opportunity. Same as Indian women. Their own women despise them.

Blogger Jim the Curmudgeon July 15, 2019 9:57 PM  

I simply don't get why people on this thread are writing China off. China's IQ decline is half the rate of that in the west. They have > 1.3 billion people, plus an overseas diaspora. Even if they lose 30% of their population, they are still a large country with a hard-working, high IQ and ethnocentric population.

Sure, there are environmental concerns, issues with abandoning traditional family values in favor of materialism, poor construction quality, export dependency on other countries, etc.

When the Party wants something, it moves quickly. I've talked to a few climate scientists who express admiration at the way in which China can immediately implement policy without waiting for endless studies and committees. If they want increased birthrates they'll find a way to provide the right motivation.

Blogger Jim the Curmudgeon July 15, 2019 10:00 PM  

@86 "Their women even choose Western men when they have the opportunity. Same as Indian women."

That doesn't help us either, to be honest. White men are indeed choosing Chinese/Japanese/Korean women as mates, which is taking a lot of our better examples from the gene pool.

You can't really blame them. If you compare the average Chinese girl to the average white girl these days, it's an easy decision. The Chinese girls don't tend to get fat, stay youthful looking into their 30s, are more resistant to left wing brainwashing, are better with money, etc etc.

Blogger English Tom July 15, 2019 10:02 PM  

@Clay

China really does want Taiwan. Taiwan is the hinge that opens the door to the wider pacific. Whoever controls Taiwan also has the potential to completely cut off Japan from its sea lines of communication.
See: Ian Easton and project2049.
The main focus of the PLA navy is the successful invasion and take over of Taiwan, this they are moving towards with a single-minded focus.

Blogger Jack Amok July 16, 2019 1:09 AM  

The boomer die off will help the US a lot as it relates to...

...so much. So, so much. I was in a vacation hotspot this weekend, lots of kitchy shops with T-shirts and crap women like to clutter houses up with. There were Boomers shambling around, and several shops with patriotic sections.

Something hit me about Boomers and patriotism and what has soured a lot of Americans. The whole 'Murica!!!! bit, it's Boomer Patriotism - not based in shared history, a shared future, or shared culture, but a selfish, solipsistic attempt by the Boomer Patriot to claim specialiness for himself.

Blogger Jack Amok July 16, 2019 1:28 AM  

We've been hearing this China garbage for 20 years. The Coming Chinese Super Power is the Climate Chang of geo-political discussion.

Climate Chang? Nate, that is so Wong.

Have you ever been to China? Say in the last 10 years or so?

I have. Their entire capitol smelled like the grease trap at a busy restaurant right before a kitchen fire burns it to the ground.

China's cohesion is a great deal better than America's, with China being more than 80% Han

But they're also significantly more clannish than Heritage Americans, so they have trouble working together across clan lines. Just like the (((Han of the Levant))), they end up at each other's throats when they don't have a wealthier host society to attach themselves to.

Blogger mike July 16, 2019 3:12 AM  

China can do s*it they're paper tiger

Blogger wahr01 July 16, 2019 4:28 AM  

Whitecloak wrote:@9 The Boomer die off damns us. They represent quite a bit of competence that was not transmitted to successor generations and the demographic weight to keep the Woke from total dominance.

We are going to miss them, though we may despise what they wrought.


Did you just say boomers were "competent"?

The moment they took power the decay of the West began. Name a sector and plot date of boomers' ability to influence it and it flies straight down the s-bend the moment it happens.

Blogger Clay July 16, 2019 4:28 AM  

English Tom wrote:@Clay

China really does want Taiwan. Taiwan is the hinge that opens the door to the wider pacific. Whoever controls Taiwan also has the potential to completely cut off Japan from its sea lines of communication.

See: Ian Easton and project2049.

The main focus of the PLA navy is the successful invasion and take over of Taiwan, this they are moving towards with a single-minded focus.


Tom, I read, and respect your opinion. 20 years ago, I would have agreed. Today, I don't think so. China obviously has the capability and wherewithal to build their own islands, to base any military strength they wish in the S.China Sea. They also have two carriers, or, soon will (although inferior variants). A humongous fleet, nonetheless.

And, don't think the JDF is sloppy. They are converting destroyers into carriers, and buying the F-35 to fly off them.

Blogger Clay July 16, 2019 5:43 AM  

Tho I hate to copy a damn word from the NYT, it's pretty informative:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/07/30/world/asia/what-china-has-been-building-in-the-south-china-sea.html

They don't need Taiwan to control the S.China Sea

Blogger Clay July 16, 2019 6:16 AM  

Maybe a little something else, for your edification, Tom:

https://time.com/5597046/japanese-aircraft-carrier-kaga-izumo/

I really don't mean to be rude, I just think you should know what's going on.

Blogger Clay July 16, 2019 6:31 AM  

Sorry. Another. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/showstopper-stealth-style-japan-wants-merge-aircraft-carrier-and-f-35s-49422

The F-35 might be a turd today...but it won't be tomorrow. I'm loving the stock in Lockheed-Martin and Raytheon.

Blogger Whitecloak July 16, 2019 7:01 AM  

@93 The Boomers failed to transmit that which they were taught, but they were taught it. Individually they are largely competent. That's a big part of the problem.

They're radical individuals. It's their defining feature.

Blogger Damelon Brinn July 16, 2019 10:29 AM  

[Boomers are] radical individuals. It's their defining feature.

Yes. Which seems weird at first, since their generation fought for socialism and many of them still push for it. But it's not a patriotic, we're-all-in-it-together socialism like you might see in Europe. It's an atomized socialism, where the government takes care of everyone's needs so every individual can go self-actualize himself to his heart's content.

Blogger justaguy July 16, 2019 10:47 AM  

As one has to accurately know the problem before one can solve it-- to those Boomer hating types who think that Boomers are the cause of all the problems of the world--- Grow up and stop hating your parents!\

While VD thinks that Boomers greatly embraced the cultural revolution. Most of the problems from the country isn't those few 60's hippies protesting being drafted-- it was the idiot Dems, led by LBJ and Ted Kennedy who opened our borders with a lie, and set up to enslave large portions of our population with the opiate of welfare. (How did LBJ put it" this will have those ""guys"" voting democratic for generations."

Free stuff-- either receiving it or giving it has now taken over our population and runs the House of Representatives. This isn't the Boomers. The statist/progressives have been trying for over 100 years. Think 17th amendment etc.

After the Boomers move on to their retirement homes in the sky or below-- the problems will just be worse because the next few generations are far less competent than the Boomers having been raised on progressive education and filled with idiotic ideas---= never taught to think. Not their fault-- buthey, Gen X and beyond is worse in most respects to Boomers in competence in doing things.

So stop blaming Boomers and actually fight the problem-- the Dems/progressives, etc.

Blogger Tars Tarkas July 16, 2019 10:57 AM  

Jim the Curmudgeon wrote:You can't really blame them. If you compare the average Chinese girl to the average white girl these days, it's an easy decision. The Chinese girls don't tend to get fat, stay youthful looking into their 30s, are more resistant to left wing brainwashing, are better with money, etc etc.



White women are the most beautiful women on the planet. The Chinese women aren't even close.

I've viewed a lot of footage from the Cultural Revolution and it appeared to me that women were the most radical fanatics driving that orgy of murder and theft and public humiliation. The main driver behind the Cultural Revolution was a woman. She ended up being executed when Mao finally came out of hiding and put an end to it.

Blogger Primus Pilus July 16, 2019 12:41 PM  

justaguy wrote:After the Boomers move on to their retirement homes in the sky or below-- the problems will just be worse because the next few generations are far less competent than the Boomers having been raised on progressive education and filled with idiotic ideas---= never taught to think. Not their fault-- buthey, Gen X and beyond is worse in most respects to Boomers in competence in doing things.

Yes, thank you for informing us that we will have to fix the impending hellish problems Boomers have imposed on us, but you've missed a few salient points.

White Gen Xers are worth 10 Boomers.
White Millennials are worth 100 Boomers.
White Gen Zers are worth 1000 Boomers.

The fact that there are fewer whites of these generations as a percentage of the population is the fault of the Boomers, and that very much includes the "As Long As It's Legal Immigration!" BoomerCons, who are arguably worse than BoomerLibs, and conveniently ignore the racial demographics of the people they hate (anyone younger than them) as they rail against them.



Post a Comment

Rules of the blog
Please do not comment as "Anonymous". Comments by "Anonymous" will be spammed.

<< Home

Newer Posts Older Posts