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Tuesday, July 16, 2019

Turkey chooses Russia

A major crack in the NATO wall:
President Donald Trump has said Washington will not sell Turkey its next-generation F-35 jet fighter, after Turkey took delivery of the Russian-made S-400 air defense system. Turkey has been a partner in the F-35 program.

“The situation with Turkey is very complex and tough. We are in contact with Turkish officials,” Trump said. US officials had long threatened to exclude Turkey from the F-35 program, claiming that operating the jet alongside the S-400 would allow Moscow to learn its secrets.

As Trump made the announcement to reporters on Tuesday, his nominee for Secretary of Defense, Mark Esper, reiterated the president’s position during his Senate confirmation hearing. Turkey “can either have the S-400 or...the F-35,” Esper said. “You cannot have both.”

At a speech in Ankara one day earlier, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hailed the arrival of his newly acquired S-400 batteries from Russia. Erdogan promised to go “much further” and set up “joint production with Russia” in future.

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53 Comments:

Blogger DonReynolds July 16, 2019 2:29 PM  

The door swings both ways. Maybe Turkey is going for the money. How much would they stand to gain by sharing the S-400 missile technology secrets with the USA instead of spending tons of money for F-35 fighter jets?

Blogger Miguel July 16, 2019 2:40 PM  

Expect "regime change" in Turkey.

Blogger Amy July 16, 2019 2:42 PM  

GoT really missed the mark. Truth stranger than fiction.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd July 16, 2019 2:56 PM  

It does seem odd to see the Russian and the Turk not at each others' throats. Whatever happened to taking back Constantinople?

Blogger WordsFromTheCrucible July 16, 2019 2:59 PM  

Then suddenly, the sound of weapons sales echoed throughout the global village market.
The banker's face soured with dismay as he peered out of his high window. The newswoman scrambled to begin churning out a freshly drafted script. A prostitute was heard yelling through the silence, "But, but, free trade!"
Somewhere in the distance, a honk was heard.

Blogger dienw July 16, 2019 3:01 PM  

[Weapons] diversity is Turkey's strength!

Blogger VD July 16, 2019 3:03 PM  

Whatever happened to taking back Constantinople?

It was taken back in 1918 and promptly given back to the Turk.

Blogger New Atlantis Lost July 16, 2019 3:14 PM  

Why bother buying a jet for the secrets when one can simply buy the “secret” circuit boards from friendly China?

Blogger Amy July 16, 2019 3:15 PM  

@4

It’s nobody’s business but the Turks

Blogger Steve July 16, 2019 3:20 PM  

NATO should've been disbanded with medals and high fives all round in 1991, but I'll take kicking the Turks out as a consolation prize.

Blogger freddie_mac July 16, 2019 3:25 PM  

Time to close Incirlik and strip the base to the studs.

Blogger steb July 16, 2019 3:31 PM  

No doubt we'll start hearing a lot more about Turkey's human rights abuses from now on.

Blogger maxsnafu July 16, 2019 3:34 PM  

I hope the U.S. will think about moving the 50 or so B61 nuclear bombs currently stored in Turkey back to the U.S.

Blogger Meanoldbasterd July 16, 2019 3:53 PM  

Keep your friends close, but....

Blogger Meanoldbasterd July 16, 2019 3:54 PM  

A travesty... The Greek army should have dug in around Thrace and Izmir and refused to move an inch.

Blogger swiftfoxmark2 July 16, 2019 3:54 PM  

I was in a conservative forum years ago and suggested that should Israel attack Turkey, we would have to defend Turkey under the NATO charter. A Zionist commenter suggested that we would have revisit our alliances in the future.

I doubt the neocons are going to weep over the loss of Turkey.

Frankly, I think we should pull completely out of the Middle East, burn any military equipment that can't be packed up, and tell Russia, the EU, and China that they can deal with this region as they see fit, provided they stay out of Latin America.

Blogger Meanoldbasterd July 16, 2019 3:55 PM  

Nah, blow them in place

Blogger God Emperor Memes July 16, 2019 3:56 PM  

If Erdogan is fool enough to betray Putin, his life will become veryinteresting. Brief, but interesting.
That's the difference. - America's "allies" know they can betray her with impunity.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash July 16, 2019 3:58 PM  

Miguel wrote:Expect "regime change" in Turkey.
They tried couple of years ago. Turks are neither as dumb as Arabs, nor as corrupt as Ukranians.

Blogger sykes.1 July 16, 2019 4:05 PM  

A geo-strategic disaster for the US is in the making. Losing Turkey to Russia gives Russia complete control of the Black Sea and control over the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean. If Iran is part of the package, the trio controls the Persian Gulf and its oil.

Blogger Wazdakka July 16, 2019 4:06 PM  

So Russia and Turkey are friends now? How many years ago was that Ruskie plane shot down? That seems to be a quick turn around. Enemy of my enemy I suppose.

Blogger Theproductofafineeduction July 16, 2019 4:20 PM  

@4

Alliances and interests change. US support of the Kurds has long been a sore spot for the Turks. There has been an ongoing Kurdish insurgency since 1978.

Our attempts at ousting Assad is directly against their interest given that there are substantial Kurdish populations at the border between Turkey and Syria whereas Russia propping up Assad is in line with their interest since that means the Kurds in Syria are kept in line.

Yet another example of why the US fucking around in Syria was a terrible idea.

Blogger pyrrhus July 16, 2019 4:21 PM  

Turkey gets best AA system in the world, but is denied America's overpriced turkey of a fighter plane...win/win all the way...

Blogger Theproductofafineeduction July 16, 2019 4:24 PM  

@20

I say let the Russians have the Black Sea, it's of absolutely no consequence to us.

I don't think the Russian's gain control of the Mediterranean by pulling Turkey into their sphere, but assuming that it does, it's still of little consequence to the United States given the Mediterranean is hemmed in by the straights of Gibraltar.

Blogger pyrrhus July 16, 2019 4:24 PM  

@21 Putin is remarkably quick to seize an opening, isn't he? A bungled US backed (or at least US Ambassador implicated) coup was incredibly convenient.....

Blogger nidus of inflection July 16, 2019 4:25 PM  

@4 Whatever happened to taking back Constantinople?
Maybe that's part of Putin's plan. Patriarch Bartholomew's shenanigans in the Ukraine can be answered a number of ways.

Blogger pyrrhus July 16, 2019 4:27 PM  

The S-400 is pretty potent bait, it completely denies airspace to potential adversaries...India is buying the system too, and ignoring US protests...

Blogger Alexei July 16, 2019 4:32 PM  

How do you know we haven't moved them out already? Or that they were ever really there to begin with?

That ain't exactly the sort of thing that's shouted from the rooftops.

Blogger Cataline Sergius July 16, 2019 4:46 PM  

Turkey has been an ally in name only since Erdogan took over.

My unit went into Iraq with half loads of pretty much everything because he cut the supply line from Turkey. By the time we rolled into Bagdad we were down to one MRE a day and four rounds per Marine.

I suspect the only reason he stayed in NATO was as another wedge to try and get into the EU.

And the only reason he wanted into the EU was to dump the perennially worthless Turkish Lira in favor of the Euro.

Either the EU is looking less attractive these days or Edrogen has let the dream die.

Blogger 🐻Drew🐻 July 16, 2019 4:58 PM  

@5 Hysterical, actually laughed out loud.

Blogger Ranger July 16, 2019 5:06 PM  

But at that point Russia was in the hands of the anti-Christian Bolsheviks. The jury is still out on whether republican Russia will, in the future, come back to that Tsarist goal.

On the long run, probably not a good idea for Turket to ally with Russia. On the short run, that is pretty much Erdogan's only choice since the attempted coup.

Blogger Peter July 16, 2019 5:17 PM  

@23 Turkey gets best AA system in the world..

I always love this S-400 vs F35/F22/B2 etc ... There is very little operational experience with the s-400 in battle so whilst on paper the S-400 is a formidable system; real life is more complex. Further while the Russian radars maybe good in detection of stealth aircraft (long wavelength), the targeting radars (short) are not thus tracking and hitting not the same --- and when they light up the sky with their radar, its a beacon for other strikes. A S-400 gets one chance to shoot before it is destroyed.

The real question here is why does Turkey want to leave NATO sphere and enter Russian sphere. its like leaving the major league to go play in the AA ball...I didn't think Erdogan is stupid but Putin is playing him like a drum... what is Putin offering Erdogan.

Blogger DeepThought July 16, 2019 5:20 PM  

The Turks are now developing their own short and medium range SAMS. By co-developing they will soon be making their own long range SAMS.

The kill switches in American equipment makes them poor choices for people seeking independence from a corrupt America.

Blogger DeepThought July 16, 2019 5:26 PM  

To those geniuses talking about Greece and war with Turkey. Turks fought for a war of independence after WW1.

History of the war in 3 minutes. They tried to keep Constantinople but British General in charge wanted over one million men to win. After losing 1/16th of their men(18-54)in WW1 and with massive debt, Britain retreated. The Turks defeated Greece and the other occupiers and a population exchange was signed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CH42eJZhBDk

Blogger D Zniger July 16, 2019 5:45 PM  

I would assume that such equipment from Russia comes with build in safeguards preventing it´s use against Russia?

Blogger Prodigal Son July 16, 2019 5:53 PM  

Presumably the Russians can work blindness into the S-400 so that her own aircraft are safer.

Those things are selling like hotcakes.

Blogger jim July 16, 2019 5:56 PM  

Amy wrote:@4

It’s nobody’s business but the Turks

Very Droll

Blogger Aurelius Gomez July 16, 2019 6:05 PM  

Nothing is as it seems... have you all learned nothing.

China is the enemy of all

Blogger Brett baker July 16, 2019 6:05 PM  

Maybe.

Blogger ZhukovG July 16, 2019 6:19 PM  

There seems to be a trend of countries starting to act as though the USA is, shall we say, going out of business.

Blogger Unknown July 16, 2019 6:27 PM  

Peter wrote:@23 Turkey gets best AA system in the world..

I always love this S-400 vs F35/F22/B2 etc ... There is very little operational experience with the s-400 in battle so whilst on paper the S-400 is a formidable system; real life is more complex. Further while the Russian radars maybe good in detection of stealth aircraft (long wavelength), the targeting radars (short) are not thus tracking and hitting not the same --- and when they light up the sky with their radar, its a beacon for other strikes. A S-400 gets one chance to shoot before it is destroyed.

The real question here is why does Turkey want to leave NATO sphere and enter Russian sphere. its like leaving the major league to go play in the AA ball...I didn't think Erdogan is stupid but Putin is playing him like a drum... what is Putin offering Erdogan.

I was in a EA-6B squadron when the F-22 first reached operational status. Circa 2005 the AF Weapon School at Nellis asked us to come down and work with the F-22 and see how well the LPI radar works in a non-friendly EW environment.
It doesn't, the Prowler killed it just like it does every other emitter. :)
S-400s are nice, and all, but they can't shoot at what they can't illuminate. I haven't heard if the missile from that system has a home on jam feature, but if it doesn't, it is just as vulnerable to EW as any other system.
-Unknownsailor-

Blogger basementhomebrewer July 16, 2019 6:29 PM  

There seems to be a trend of countries starting to act as though the USA is, shall we say, going out of business.

You would have to be blind to not see that there would be no will to fight a war in the US. No matter the enemy nor what they did to provoke a war half the population would be blaming the President rather than rallying.

Add to that the increasing evidence that the US defense contractors can no longer deliver advanced technology, and when they do manage to squeek something new out foreign powers have the plans for it the next day.

Add in all the diversity training and girl power initiatives. That scream that fighting effectiveness is going to plummet because winning wars is not the focus of the organization anymore.

Add in the fact that the navy can no longer steer ships reliably in peace time operations.

All those factors scream that the US is not an ally that can be depended on and as enemy not half as scary as it used to be.

Blogger English Tom July 16, 2019 6:31 PM  

I can't recall the source, and would appreciate confirmation, but I read recently that Turkey is actually part of the F35 manufacturing chain, I believe it was the engines. So, if the US punishes Turkey by locking it out of deals, what happens to the Turkish dimension (if true) in the F35 manufacturing process?

What does Erdogan get from Putin?

Turkey was involved from the start in the 'deconstruction' of Syria, pumped up with dreams of a neo-ottoman revival and accruing some territory. It was only late in the game they realised the primary focus of US/West was about creating Kurdistan. A,Kurdish state is anathema to Turkey.
Turkey will get from Putin access into the EAEU, possibly also the SCO, rent from oil pipelines across Turkey's European territory, probably arms deals like Russian advanced weaponry made in Turkey under licence, and lots of other goodies.

Blogger English Tom July 16, 2019 6:36 PM  

Another interesting thing. Turkey has been adamant about Assad leaving the stage, but Russia and Iran won't go with this. Will Turkey adjust its demands against Assad, and if so, how will this affect the current geostrategic dynamic?

Blogger Azimus July 16, 2019 6:58 PM  

Since the F-35 is less than impressive and the S-400 is battle-proven, I'd do a 1:1 swap - 1 squadron of F-35's for 1 battery of S400's. Then couldn't we "learn the secrets" of the S-400?

Blogger Azimus July 16, 2019 6:59 PM  

I'm looking forward to Turkey leaving NATO.

Blogger Mark Stoval July 16, 2019 7:14 PM  

The main aim of the US Empire's foreign policy is to impose the will of the ruling elite and deep state on the rest of the world. If displacing the white natives locally and/or losing Turkey helps with that goal then they will be all for it.

Power and control is the ultimate goal just as it always has been.

How does this news play into that. This is the question.

Blogger Peter July 16, 2019 10:15 PM  

@43 "I can't recall the source, and would appreciate confirmation, but I read recently that Turkey is actually part of the F35 manufacturing chain, I believe it was the engines....

Engines are P&W 135. from what i saw on the web, Turkey was going to be a prime on manufacturer of engines for their own F35.

Blogger Wazdakka July 16, 2019 11:13 PM  

Peter wrote:The real question here is why does Turkey want to leave NATO sphere and enter Russian sphere. its like leaving the major league to go play in the AA ball...I didn't think Erdogan is stupid but Putin is playing him like a drum... what is Putin offering Erdogan.

Isn't Turkey building a new canal. This will increase ship traffic into the black sea. A rather important trade route for the Russians. The s400 may have been a sweet deal from Mr P for economic as well as political machinations.

Blogger VFM #7634 July 17, 2019 12:31 AM  

@44 English Tom

Turkey has softened its stance against Assad recently, I suppose since it has decided the Kurdish communists are more of a threat to them than Assad's government.

Blogger Thad Tuiol July 17, 2019 12:38 AM  

Failed coups, just like failed mafia hits, tend to have unintended consequences...whodathunkit?

Blogger JG July 17, 2019 9:16 AM  

Empires in decline have a disturbing inclination to build expensive monuments to their prior greatness. This is how I think of these enormously expensive aircraft such as the B2 Bomber, F-22 Raptor, F-35 Lightning, and ridiculously expensive targets like the new CVN-78 Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier.

Blogger RusticFederalist July 17, 2019 1:08 PM  

I wish the US government had chosen to work with Russia instead of Turkey.

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