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Sunday, August 04, 2019

A series of highly improbable coincidences

One strong indicator of a Narrative at work is the presence of people connected to similar previous events:
The parents of one of the Stonewall Douglas High School shooting in Parkland, Florida happened to be in El Paso on Saturday.
I said the over/under was three, although I was anticipating a connection to Las Vegas rather than Parkland. But regardless, we're already at two. Let's just say this isn't the first time there has been an "amazing coincidence" of this type.
  • Gilroy Garlic Festival: 3 also survived Las Vegas shooting 2 years ago
  • Telemachus Orfanos, 27, died alongside 11 others when a man opened fire at the Borderline Bar and Grill in Thousand Oaks, north-west of Los Angeles. He escaped death last year when a gunman killed 58 people in Las Vegas.
  • A woman from California who survived the Las Vegas attack had been driving to her job in San Bernardino, California, when the mass shooting at that city’s Inland Regional Center began in December 2015.
  • Parkland survivor's dad escaped harm in Las Vegas shooting.
  • One of the victims of the 2012 mass shooting in Aurora, Colorado, had been at the site of a mass shooting in Toronto only a month before.
The odds against one person in a country of 320 million being in the vicinity of two such events are astronomical. The odds of this happening at least six times are astronomical squared. What the explanation is, I don't know, but the probability math indicates extreme skepticism is required.

Labels: ,

126 Comments:

Blogger Doktor Jeep August 04, 2019 11:10 AM  

Skepticism will be deemed terroristic

Blogger Harris August 04, 2019 11:13 AM  

Could be spiritual...

Blogger Miguel August 04, 2019 11:14 AM  

Probability math indicates intentionality, i.e., false flag(s).

Blogger binks webelf August 04, 2019 11:15 AM  

Everything & anything is possible in Clown World! Almost impossible coincidences abound! Is magic!

Blogger Akuma August 04, 2019 11:21 AM  

"What the explanation is, I don't know, but the probability math indicates extreme skepticism is required."

Not only that, but its proof of MPAI. Why didn't these people learn about how to avoid potential active shooters and maintain situational awareness? As someone whose dodged bullets on multiple occassions and diffused situtions where they could fly it blows my mind these people did not prepare themselves.

Blogger Ibelin August 04, 2019 11:24 AM  

I have a sneaking suspicion that these were coordinated events. The Dems are in trouble and they know it. This shifts the focus from the shit show to a policy debate (gun control) where the media can control the narrative. It sounds far fetched but in this day and age nothing surpriss me.

Blogger Crew August 04, 2019 11:26 AM  

@7: But there is still a long way to go before the election (around 13 months). Why pull out all the stops right now? Why not wait until closer to the election so people can better remember ORANGE MAN BAD!

Blogger Mel Fox August 04, 2019 11:27 AM  

The odds of this happening at least six times are astronomical to the sixth power. In other words, it's impossible.

It's big news when someone who survived a plane crash gets in another plane crash, because it's both highly improbable and horrifying. Most people don't understand the nuances of probabilities, but they understand "impossible." So many cases of double-victimhood in just a few years is gonna spike anyone's BS meter.

Blogger Crew August 04, 2019 11:29 AM  

I think the next thing the Democrats will try to do is to repeal the second amendment!

Blogger Xoph August 04, 2019 11:31 AM  

The reason would be these repeaters can help build the story of the epidemic of gun violence, because what are the odds? Extra bonus, they will issue statements supporting gun control.

Blogger Doktor Jeep August 04, 2019 11:34 AM  

These events in collusion with internet censorship is very blackpilling. Joe Normy is never going to know the truth. But he will still vote on the lies. This is a criminal operation at hand but murder babies so God won't be giving a shit.

Blogger Ska_Boss August 04, 2019 11:37 AM  

I've been down the crisis actor rabbit hole, if you are brave enough to venture down it be sure to bring your tinfoil hat, it's a very strange place.

Blogger Lovekraft August 04, 2019 11:38 AM  

When the conversation shifts and centers around big pharma, public schools, broken homes and economic despair, I will know they have finally accepted the reality of motive is much simpler yet necessary to proceed with solutions.

Address the above and then see if mental health improves, rather than put people under the state's cold gaze.

Manson has entered popular consciousness again with Tarantino's latest. Molyneux has a good video on his origins. One key takeaway was how the massacre at Polanski's home was an accident, and that Manson sent his people to kill what he thought was the resident at the time (but had moved out some months earlier) - a music producer that rejected Manson, which to anyone other than Manson was a completely sensible decision. But the stage of Manson's insanity declared that this person would be the ultimate offering.

So there is a combination of factors that lead to these ultimate actions.

Blogger Brass August 04, 2019 11:38 AM  

This might help explain the odds a bit better.

https://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-birthday-paradox/

Blogger Salt August 04, 2019 11:38 AM  

These odds are sorosianly epic.

Blogger Horace August 04, 2019 11:42 AM  

"Chris Weber, who rushed to the bar after learning a friend might have been shot, told The New York Times he believed people inside the bar at the time had also attended the festival." -USA today copy on Thousand Oaks night club shooting

Not the first time such astronomical events have been alleged to have occurred in America. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2018/11/08/thousand-oaks-bar-shooting-some-victims-survived-las-vegas-attack/1928082002/

Blogger Seth S August 04, 2019 11:44 AM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Shimshon August 04, 2019 11:50 AM  

Oh Vox, we know you're just brainstorming ideas for the next issue of AHQ. None of that is...WTF?!

It really does beggar belief, does it not?

I do wonder if the increasing staccato-like occurrence of these events is a sign of desperation by the false flaggers. I think the gun-totin' normie masses are going to wake up to idea that there's a nefarious if hard to discern pattern behind the carnage sooner rather than later at the rate they're going.

Blogger Crew August 04, 2019 11:50 AM  

@15: I don't think the BP helps all that much, because you are basically asking:

What is the chance that three people who were at Las Vegas and survived were all not at any of the tens of thousands of places in the US they could have been and there was a mass shooting at the place they were at.

Blogger Wazdakka August 04, 2019 11:53 AM  

Why does this "news" concerning the incident appear so soon afterwards. The press should be investigating the incident and motives. To get this weird coincidence and report on it is just strange. What is the aim of giving this information to the public?
I can only assume that it is to remind readers that these events are frequent. Does anybody have a better idea why this is reported?

Blogger Unknown August 04, 2019 11:54 AM  

18.  Seth SAugust 04, 2019 11:44 AM

@5 that makes no sense.

It means he wants to have someone in authority explain it to him so he will know what to think.

Blogger Horace August 04, 2019 11:55 AM  

Its more than likely a business group targeting rival business group(s) which would explain Harris's comment, the devil has taught someone to keep getting away with this they could be paying the shooters or grooming them but the way they are used is too common and the media is complicit. Look at a TV sometime this month and you will see democratic candidates campaign about these murders.

Blogger Damelon Brinn August 04, 2019 11:58 AM  

These events in collusion with internet censorship is very blackpilling.

Yesterday I was at a small town parade in a white Midwest town, surrounded by Joe Normies. The local Republicans had a float; the Democrats were nowhere to be seen. I recalled that four years ago, the Republicans seemed a little sheepish about the whole Trump thing and were emphasizing their local candidates. This year, the float and the truck pulling it both had "TRUMP 2020" in the biggest lettering possible.

Three years of demonization and lies have done nothing but make them more confident that we did the right thing in 2016. If you're being blackpilled by the media and the Internet, take a break from it and get out around real people. There's another perspective available.

Blogger Joeplanet August 04, 2019 12:00 PM  

The fruits of the black ops confirms it for me. My social media is already bearing the shrieking, bleating women sheep with variations of "won't somebody please think of the children?!" and "please stop supporting bad orange man, this isn't making America great again!"

Blogger VD August 04, 2019 12:08 PM  

You're banned, Mystic on Main. No commenting here.

Blogger Hammerli 280 August 04, 2019 12:10 PM  

There's a part of me that thinks this is battlespace preparation for the New York City firearm transport case now before the Supreme Court. The Dems are desperate to have that case mooted...because they know they are going to lose it. And that SCOTUS might just give definitive guidance on the degree of scrutiny in Second Amendment cases.

Since the Heller decision was handed down, the lower courts have played a nasty little game of ignoring it. It's practically the only thing that is really getting Justice Thomas' ire...and I suspect he's holding on precisely so he gets to write the decision that will buttress Heller.

Blogger Azure Amaranthine August 04, 2019 12:18 PM  

"Telemachus Orfanos"

Fake name is fake. Now they're just taunting us.

Blogger J Van Stry August 04, 2019 12:21 PM  

Where do you think they'll hit next weekend?
Last Sunday was Gilroy.
Yesterday, El Paso
Today, Oregon Ohio.

so that's west, south, north. I'm thinking southeast and northeast are next. But not anyplace 'big' or 'typical', because none of the last three were.
So say, someplace in Georgia on Saturday, but not in Atlanta.
For Sunday, Eastern Pennsylvania, say maybe Honesdale or that area?

Maybe we need a betting pool, because three in a row sure isn't a coincidence.

Blogger Twisted Root August 04, 2019 12:24 PM  

Brass wrote:This might help explain the odds a bit better.

https://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-birthday-paradox/


Yes, but add in geographical distance and not everyone has the same chance of being in the room in the first place.

Blogger carnaby August 04, 2019 12:27 PM  

An interesting number of people survived both the bomb at Hiroshima and the one at Nagasaki.

Blogger Azure Amaranthine August 04, 2019 12:28 PM  

"Could be spiritual..."

All that would mean is that the organizer is slightly further up the food chain.

"This might help explain the odds a bit better.

https://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-birthday-paradox/"


You fail to realize that many of the people here are already sufficiently familiar with probability to analyze this, and this rejection is the result rather than the assumption.

Compare 300+ million people and the fact that these were hundreds to over a thousand miles distant in all cases, and the odds are actually well into the bullshit range. This isn't just supposition.

Blogger Azure Amaranthine August 04, 2019 12:30 PM  

"An interesting number of people survived both the bomb at Hiroshima and the one at Nagasaki."

Last I checked there was exactly one person. Singular.

Blogger JD Curtis August 04, 2019 12:31 PM  

Satanic patches worn by Ohio shooter?

Link

Blogger Nathan August 04, 2019 12:35 PM  

Dayton, Aurora, Gilroy, El Paso, Las Vegas. Lots of Air Force near each. Might be coincidence.

Blogger Jeroth August 04, 2019 12:40 PM  

What the hell is going on here?

Blogger Sweet, Sweet Victory August 04, 2019 12:40 PM  

27. Azure Amaranthine August 04, 2019 12:18 PM
"Telemachus Orfanos"

Fake name is fake. Now they're just taunting us.


It's a Greek name, it's the son of Odysseus, and "Orphanos" an adjective meaning "Orphan" a common adjective and last name in Greece.

Pizzagate had also Mr. Alefantis a Greek guy, the plot thickens.

Blogger Crew August 04, 2019 12:42 PM  

(((They))) are quick to bring out their anti-Trump rhetoric:

The El Paso Killer Loved Trump. Do You? Then You’re Responsible, Too.

This seems to be what it is about. Trying to reduce Trump's support among those scared to be called racists.

Blogger Miguel August 04, 2019 12:44 PM  

looool

Blogger Dan in Georgia August 04, 2019 12:46 PM  

Georgia may be the next target.

Maybe a gay bar in Atlanta. There are dozens to choose from.

But there are also huge pockets of Hispanics and Indians (dot, not feather) outside of Atlanta that would make good fodder for The Narrative.

Don’t forget the numerous Planned Parenthood Temples to Moloch in the city. TPTB hate Gov Kemp here more than the GE.

Blogger Azure Amaranthine August 04, 2019 12:51 PM  

"It's a Greek name, it's the son of Odysseus, and "Orphanos" an adjective meaning "Orphan""

I know that. Now place your bets on the likelihood of someone being named orphan far-soldier. It's a pun in this circumstance.

Blogger Dan in Georgia August 04, 2019 12:51 PM  

There’s a big base in the Atlanta area, ARB Dobbins. We would be a future target group if the AF is the common element.

Blogger Mel Fox August 04, 2019 12:52 PM  

Last I checked there was exactly one person. Singular.

Officially one, as recognized by the Japanese government. Unofficially, 165 are estimated to have survived both.

Blogger Dan in Georgia August 04, 2019 12:53 PM  

Holy crap

Blogger FUBARwest August 04, 2019 12:54 PM  

Nobody in their right mind sees all of these shootings happen and decides the best idea is to disarm themselves.

Blogger Azure Amaranthine August 04, 2019 12:55 PM  

"Officially one, as recognized by the Japanese government. Unofficially, 165 are estimated to have survived both."

Proximity. If all you felt was a stiff breeze, and you weren't downwind, it's not much of a story is it.

Blogger camcleat August 04, 2019 1:00 PM  

MSNBC Headline:

We have a White Nationalist Terrorism Problem in this country.

No Narratives here. Move along.

Blogger Unknown August 04, 2019 1:01 PM  

42.  Mel FoxAugust 04, 2019 12:52

Officially one, as recognized by the Japanese government. Unofficially, 165 are estimated to have survived both.

Nobody is saying that someone from Las Vegas was also in El Paso...isn't that spooky?

Blogger sammibandit August 04, 2019 1:10 PM  

The odds of a Colorado victim being in Toronto for another shooting, the Greek restaurant one I think, are very low. I can sort of expect lots of travelling by Americans in America but across international borders, nah.

Just checked. Toronto was the Greektown shooting by a muslim. Very curious. Very tangentially, but I was surprised to learn recently that ritual murders of goy also includes muslim girls.

Blogger Jack Amok August 04, 2019 1:12 PM  

We have a White Nationalist Terrorism Problem in this country.

Exactly, because white nationalists would be shooting up country music shows, garlic festivals, Walmarts and bar districts. They wouldn't be shooting up university diversity conferences, hip-hop shows*, bankster offices, CPS buildings and Hemp-Fests.

* admittedly, if they were shooting up hip-hop shows, we might not notice over all the regular cap-bustin'. "Yes, we believe at least one of the shooters at Ho'-Fest was a white nationalist. Why? Because he wasn't holding the pistol sideways, and it wasn't a Glock..."

Blogger sammibandit August 04, 2019 1:12 PM  

The people who decide that are city dwelling limousine liberals and their sycophants. The same people who want rural people disarmed though rural crime is high and police response time dragged out.

Blogger Mel Fox August 04, 2019 1:14 PM  

Proximity. If all you felt was a stiff breeze, and you weren't downwind, it's not much of a story is it.

Stick with the official number, if you like. We're all fans of approved government statistics here. However, the producers of the documentary claim that "nine of the survivors were within the blast zone in both cities."

It's not that difficult to accept that a few people in a small, densely populated country were in both large cities that were bombed during a war, especially considering that hundreds of thousands perished.

Blogger Nostromo August 04, 2019 1:17 PM  

All my grandparents did. You're comparing oranges and bananas.

Blogger Crew August 04, 2019 1:25 PM  

Well, it's pretty clear that crisis actors are going to all be where the crises are ...

Blogger Raker_T August 04, 2019 1:33 PM  

@11 I don't think we've explored all our options for communicating. Here's an idea: Traditionally, Christians have handed out tracts, small booklets about one's separation from God. These days, I wonder how many people would take the time to read that much; and is there an entertainment-rhetoric value?
So what if we made cards, maybe an 8.5" X 11" cut in 4 pieces on heavy card stock. It could be two sided, but both sides must have a separate message about the same topic. I call it pocket memes. Rips a hole in some aspect of the official narrative, just like a good meme, cheap to make, easy to leave here and there. This is part of what I'm gearing up for this month. More later.

Blogger Daniel August 04, 2019 1:39 PM  

Same thinking here
There must be some shit going on behind the scenes

Blogger Daniel August 04, 2019 1:43 PM  

This is more akin to guys winning the lottery twice.
When the lottery goes on once every 6 months. By something who do not buy tickets.
No freeking way dude

Blogger Daniel August 04, 2019 1:44 PM  

Someone*

Blogger lowercaseb August 04, 2019 1:44 PM  

How much do you want to bet that Antifa is going to get shot up by "White Nationalists" during their op next week in El Paso. I can almost see the headlines now.

Blogger Mel Fox August 04, 2019 1:46 PM  

All my grandparents did. You're comparing oranges and bananas.

I'm comparing coconuts and kumquats.

Blogger Crew August 04, 2019 1:49 PM  

Brian Cates claims the alleged gunman was just another shit-posting troll!

https://twitter.com/drawandstrike/status/1158029613785853952

Blogger Noah B. August 04, 2019 1:54 PM  

Given these odds it would be irresponsible not to consider alternative theories. Some possibilities are:

1) These people weren't really at one or both places. Possibly they're lying to make themselves into celebrities or advance gun control.
2) The lazy and inept Fake News fabricated some or all of the stories. It's much easier to write fiction than to do real interviews and research, faking outrage if someone happens to question the validity of the story.
3) There are actors being moved from one scene to another.

Overall the windup toys theory is quite compelling. Suppose an informant helps radicalize a prospective shooter, provides technical assistance, assists in planning, and encourages their shooter to write a manifesto (aka a confession). We know that the FBI does all of that already and that these techniques are one of the mainstays of what they call counterterrorism investigations. To carry out one of these attacks, the only additional steps would be allowing the attack to happen, deploying selected media resources (e.g. crisis actors) at the scene to control the narrative, and of course covering up any official involvement.

There's no reason why multiple windup toys couldn't be involved, and it may even be easier to convince a small group to carry out one of these attacks than to convince an individual to act alone. If one of the group is an autistic and non-communicative type who is incapable of explaining the way events actually unfolded, he would make a particularly convenient scapegoat. Any other participants who don't fit that profile are likely to get disappeared. Alternatively, the missing 2-3 attackers could have been feds or mercs.

Blogger English Tom August 04, 2019 1:56 PM  

@Jeroth

Holy fuck. Looks like you discovered a clone factory. Imagine, clones of clones of an original mass shooter. No wonder there are so many shootings now!

Blogger Crew August 04, 2019 1:58 PM  

Here is the penultimate paragraph in the alleged manifesto:

My ideology has not changed for several years. My opinions on automation, immigration, and the rest predate Trump and his campaign for president. I putting this here because some people will blame the President or certain presidential candidates for the attack. This is not the case. I know that the media will probably call me a white supremacist anyway and blame Trump’s rhetoric. The media is infamous for fake news. Their reaction to this attack will likely just confirm that.

Ahhh, the problem of fake news.

Blogger Noah B. August 04, 2019 1:59 PM  

Begun the Clone Wars have.

Blogger Noah B. August 04, 2019 2:03 PM  

Anyone else remember Dolly the Sheep? Born in 1996.

Blogger Crew August 04, 2019 2:09 PM  

He also clearly states the reason for his choice of places to attack:

Remember: it is not cowardly to pick low hanging fruit. AKA Don’t attack heavily guarded areas to fulfill your super soldier COD fantasy. Attack low security targets. Even though you might out gun a security guard or police man, they likely beat you in armor, training and numbers. Do not throw away your life on an unnecessarily dangerous target. If a target seems too hot, live to fight another day.

Ie, gun-free zones.

Blogger lowercaseb August 04, 2019 2:10 PM  

Noah B. wrote:Begun the Clone Wars have.

You think the next batch will solve the eyesight problem that latest decanting has had?

Blogger FUBARwest August 04, 2019 2:20 PM  

What's the endgame here? 2nd amendment isnt going anywhere, these acts reinforce part of why its necessary. The manifestos aren't real and don't support the narrative being pushed by the media.. this doesnt make sense.

Blogger Zander Stander August 04, 2019 2:30 PM  

I remember a similar name M. Mathis mentioned. Orphan of War was the translation. Spooks are running out of names. Don't they have the advancest AI evvver?

Blogger Zander Stander August 04, 2019 2:33 PM  

Triplets. Spooks love twins, therefore triplets must be something special. This is getting ludicrous.

Blogger Noah B. August 04, 2019 2:33 PM  

What's the endgame here? 2nd amendment isnt going anywhere...

The 2nd Amendment notwithstanding, the obvious fakery of Sandy Hook helped to spawn gun control at the state level in California, New York, Maryland, Connecticut, Colorado, and Washington - and those are just the instances I'm aware of. The MGM Las Vegas attack led to the bumpstock ban and killed efforts to deregulate suppressors, which had been gaining momentum.

Our enemies don't need to repeal the 2nd Amendment if they can simply ignore it.

Blogger lowercaseb August 04, 2019 2:33 PM  

Another shooting last night. No dead, 7 wounded. However, this is Chicago. It could very easily be unrelated and just another night out in the windy city.

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/Mass-Shooting-Near-Douglas-Park-Playground-Police-518001731.html





Blogger Zander Stander August 04, 2019 2:35 PM  

Thanks for confirming, Azure. You will find this name in one of M.M.'s older posts.

Blogger Ultrahardcore August 04, 2019 2:40 PM  

FUBAR, for what it's worth Fred Brennan the original creator of 8Chan says he thinks that manifesto is real. Or at least it was posted by someone with foreknowledge of the shooting.

Blogger Jack Amok August 04, 2019 2:46 PM  

How much do you want to bet that Antifa is going to get shot up by "White Nationalists" during their op next week in El Paso. I can almost see the headlines now.

If Antifa got shot up, I'd assume it was legit and not a False Flag. The wind-up toy makers don't want to scare useful idiots away form involvement in Antifa by making it seem dangerous.

Anonymous Anonymous August 04, 2019 2:47 PM  

I've pretty much tuned out all media. First I heard of it is when we prayed for the victims in Church.

Then what did I do? Tuned in here, and a few other blogs I read to get a clue and some perspective to be able to digest the narrative. Still really haven't hit the mainstream for any of this.

Am I the only one?

Blogger Rex Leroy King August 04, 2019 2:48 PM  

Noah B. wrote:Anyone else remember Dolly the Sheep? Born in 1996.

I believe cloning is as real as this story.

Blogger Crew August 04, 2019 3:26 PM  

There were 66 people shot in one weekend in Chicago last year, with 12 fatalities, but that's just black culture ...

https://abc7chicago.com/66-shot-12-fatally-in-chicago-weekend-shootings/3892234/

Blogger dcn August 04, 2019 3:31 PM  

Re:Birthday Problem

There's so many variables to account for that it's difficult to do the math on this accurately, but here's what I've come up with

What are the odds that a person in a room has a connection to parkland (student or parent)? Total student enrollment is ~3000 (wikipedia), if I triple that number for parents (or guardians, or non HS siblings), I get 9000. The odds of a random person in the country (NOT accounting for distance) NOT being at or having a child at that shooting is 319,991,000/320,000,000 or 0.999971875. Attendance at the Route 91 Harvest festival (Las Vegas shooting) was 22,000. What are the odds that at least 1 person at the Las Vegas shooting also had a connection (family/student) to the Parkland shooting? The inverse of the probability of NOBODY being at both, 1.0-(0.999971875)^22,000 = ~46% chance. These numbers are sensitive, for example if you use 6000 people instead of 9000 people, you get ~34%. Any mistake can produce a very different result.

It does seem plausible for this to be a coincidence to happen once, in this example which includes the most attended shooting (Las Vegas). But this does not account for distance, and not all of the shootings have 22,000 people to pull from. Six times is unlikely but not necessarily astronomically unlikely (if you DON'T account for distance), but it's hard to tell given how sensitive the numbers are and my lack of account for the distance problem, which should reduce these odds drastically.

Blogger Ken Prescott August 04, 2019 3:33 PM  

"A woman from California who survived the Las Vegas attack had been driving to her job in San Bernardino, California, when the mass shooting at that city’s Inland Regional Center began in December 2015."

Doesn't say she worked at the Inland Regional Center. Since the shooting happened near the middle of the standard day shift and that office is, well, an admin office open only during the standard day shift, she probably didn't work there. And San Berdoo is only a few hours down the 15 from Vegas, and the concert in Vegas was a major event that would attract CW music fans from the entire region. (Three of my cow-orkers went to it, and I'm way down in San Diego, where a trip to Vegas is a semi-serious commitment of time and resources--hotel, meals, etc.)

The Thousand Oaks shooting was in a bar that played both kinds of music: country and western. If they played techno or rap, I would be highly suspicious of someone surviving the Vegas shooting. I would be highly suspicious if there wasn't ANY crossover between the two events because of the common factor of country-western music.

Blogger bodenlose Schweinerei August 04, 2019 3:36 PM  

There were 66 people shot in one weekend in Chicago last year, with 12 fatalities, but that's just black culture ...

All these "mass shootings" still haven't matched the average monthly shooting fatalities in Chicongo.


the site of a mass shooting in Toronto

Isn't being at the site of a Canadian mass shooting like seeing Bigfoot piloting Nessie's favorite flying saucer? I've been repeatedly harangued that such things NEVER HAPPEN IN CANADA!

Blogger Zander Stander August 04, 2019 3:59 PM  

Literally means "orphan from a faraway war".

Blogger Snidely Whiplash August 04, 2019 4:03 PM  

Rex Leroy King wrote:I believe cloning is as real as this story.
I see what you did there.

Blogger Zander Stander August 04, 2019 4:10 PM  

Please see upthread about the name Telemachus Orfanis. That name came up in an older mass shooting and Miles Mathis proved that to be a false name. What we have here is a full color picture of Bigfoot. Arguments about odds are self- misdirection. Try laying the odds on that unique name coming up in two separate incidents. *drops mike*

Blogger Anne August 04, 2019 4:16 PM  

Crew wrote:(((They))) are quick to bring out their anti-Trump rhetoric:

The El Paso Killer Loved Trump. Do You? Then You’re Responsible, Too.

This seems to be what it is about. Trying to reduce Trump's support among those scared to be called racists.


Notice this excerpt:
What alternative explanation is there? They certainly aren’t supporting him for their healthcare. Trump took that away. They certainly aren’t supporting him for his tax cut. 83% of the benefits for that went to the top 1% of income earners. They aren’t supporting him for “draining the swamp,” either. No other administration in US history has piled up so many federal indictments.

The logic is a little backwards.

Blogger Seeingsights August 04, 2019 4:34 PM  

The deaths of those associated with the Assassination of JFK is a series of highly improbable coincidences. Unfortunately some such as Jim Marrs overstate the point. For example Jack Ruby died in jail. A mistress of JFK was murdered, and afterwards the high level CIA figure James Jesus Angleton broke into her house and stole her diary. There are others related to the event who died.
I was at one workplace for about three years, about 30 employees, and one died from a car accident. At another workplace I was at for ten years, about 50 employees every year, one died from disease.
In a group of 30 to 50 people, more than one person dying in a four year span seems unusual to me. More than 3 in a few years as in the JFK case makes me suspicious. Either the mob or a govt agency was behind it.

Blogger P Glenrothes August 04, 2019 5:13 PM  

As someone who is close to the Borderline shooting, the odds of a connection to the Las Vegas shooting aren't improbable at all.

Blogger MidnightSun August 04, 2019 5:14 PM  

@35 That's the "Ridalyn/aderol been drugged since I was 5-years-old look." It is a crime what has been done to the boys of this generation by their parents and th(psychiatric profession). I have a nephew (now 25 yrs old) whose parents were either to busy or to stupid to discipline him when he was younger. He has that same apathetic, moot, emotionless look in his eyes as these three zombies.

Blogger Robert What? August 04, 2019 5:49 PM  

The most likely explanation is that the shooters were Deep State operatives. But how completely jaded do you have to be to view a shooting like that as just another day at the office ?

Blogger Azure Amaranthine August 04, 2019 6:07 PM  

"Six times is unlikely but not necessarily astronomically unlikely (if you DON'T account for distance), but it's hard to tell given how sensitive the numbers are and my lack of account for the distance problem, which should reduce these odds drastically."

Multiple people being at multiple events that aren't Vegas is so extraordinarily doubtful as a coincidence, that astronomically is more appropriate a term.

Blogger Azure Amaranthine August 04, 2019 6:11 PM  

"No other administration in US history has piled up so many federal indictments.

The logic is a little backwards."


You are more than a little dishonest.

Appeal to authority, bad faith argument, false dichotomy, begging the question....

Blogger Unknown August 04, 2019 6:13 PM  

92.  cisbioAugust 04, 2019 5:59 PM

refusing to accept alt-right rhetoric

So the Alt-Right is recruiting Mexican moms now?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5schBNjjhIo&ytbChannel=Joey%20Gibson%20Patriot%20Prayer

Link Restored - pr

Blogger Snidely Whiplash August 04, 2019 6:16 PM  

cisbio wrote:Trust in government is one thing, refusing to accept alt-right rhetoric is a culpable factor in some mass shootings is another.
We should "accept" unestablished assertions of our own guilt ... why exactly?
You need to accept these guys are all Leftists and Atheists.

Blogger cisbio August 04, 2019 6:54 PM  

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash August 04, 2019 7:02 PM  

cisbio wrote:How many false flags will it take before you guys say 'enough!' and rise up against this murderous regime?
You were banned, Mystic. Go away

Blogger Snidely Whiplash August 04, 2019 7:40 PM  

cisbio wrote:Not Mystic, newbie
Perhaps not, but you're peddling the same shit. It's an easy mistake to make.

You getting paid for this or are you trying to alleviate the pain of your useless, pointless life?

Blogger cisbio August 04, 2019 7:54 PM  

You getting paid for this or are you trying to alleviate the pain of your useless, pointless life?

Great question. I really wish I was getting paid.

Blogger Stilicho August 04, 2019 7:58 PM  

Well, Snidely, zhe answered your question even if it wasn't intentional

Blogger Stilicho August 04, 2019 8:00 PM  

Well, Snidely, zhe answered your question even if it wasn't intentional

Blogger Snidely Whiplash August 04, 2019 8:01 PM  

So, I see many indications you were banned in the past, but I can't find the actual banning. Which honestly doesn't surprise, a great many comments were lost before Vox moved to blogspot comments.
Anyway, you were banned cisbio, go away.

Blogger cisbio August 04, 2019 8:07 PM  

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

Blogger basementhomebrewer August 04, 2019 8:39 PM  

If Antifa got shot up, I'd assume it was legit and not a False Flag. The wind-up toy makers don't want to scare useful idiots away form involvement in Antifa by making it seem dangerous.

It would slot into the narrative just so though. Antifa has reluctantly been getting a little bit of negative coverage in the press recently. As hard as the media tried to bury the story on the attack on the ICE facility a couple weeks ago, it still slipped out and there are pols actually talking seriously about designating them a terrorist org.

This thing next week is a nightmare for the elites if it gets out of hand, like it looks like it might. They are distributing cartoons of themselves killing ICE agents and setting the facility on fire. If anything near that were to happen, Antifa would be finished in this country. On the other hand, if some evil white nationalists were to show up and gun down some "defenseless" Antifa "protestors" before they could do anything stupid. All the sudden Antifa becomes a group of martyrs and it will be hard to find a Pol that would advocate designating them as terrorist organization for years to come. They would make hay from that incident all the way through the elections next year and likely the next set of mid-terms as well.

It's callous, it's calculating and it is exactly something the deep state would consider. If suddenly some of the key organizers of Antifa back out of showing up in El Paso it will confirm that something like this is likely to go down.

Blogger Damelon Brinn August 04, 2019 9:00 PM  

@107, Yeah, they were trolling the chans pretty hard after that ICE incident, trying to get some right-wingers to come face off with them in a leftist stronghold like Portland where they could arrange another Charlottesville-style trap. It seems like everyone's finally figured out the game so it didn't work. If no one shows up to be the patsy, they just break things and piss off the cops who aren't allowed to stop them and have to clean up after.

Blogger James Dixon August 04, 2019 9:30 PM  

> You are more than a little dishonest.

I love you mastery of understatement, Azure.

Blogger Gulo Gulo August 04, 2019 9:56 PM  

There is a higher chance of me winning the Powerball lottery than one of these shooting "coincidences" occurring. But six of them? Not even a remote chance.

Blogger Jack Amok August 04, 2019 10:22 PM  

tifa has reluctantly been getting a little bit of negative coverage in the press recently. ...This thing next week is a nightmare for the elites if it gets out of hand, like it looks like it might.

That is an interesting angle - if the useful idiots are become less useful and more idiots, deleting the org with a false flag would be a two-fer.

What we could really use - and I wish I knew how to bring it about - is our own disinfo web that could propagate the meme that Soros Inc. has decided Antifa is now toxic and there are plans to do as you suggested. Not sure how to reach the normies with that though... Is it too late to get a successor to Art Bell up and running? Could be useful.

Blogger Anne August 04, 2019 11:09 PM  

Azure Amaranthine wrote:"No other administration in US history has piled up so many federal indictments.

The logic is a little backwards."


You are more than a little dishonest.

Appeal to authority, bad faith argument, false dichotomy, begging the question....


I hope you mean to say the author is a little dishonest as I also disagree with him. I believe his evidence is better evidence of the opposite conclusion. For example, the bit you requoted makes me think of all those sealed indictments, which I take as evidence that Trump is making an honest effort to drain the swamp. The other two also seem to mischaracterise the view of the average Trump supporter, who probably is as happy with those two policies as I am.
I'm sorry I was not more clear, I tend to waffle between wall of text and too short.

Blogger P Glenrothes August 04, 2019 11:14 PM  

If one assumes the odds of a person being present at 2 separate events is completely random, than yes, they are improbable. However, if one wishes to discover the truth, assumptions need to be verified.

Blogger PG August 04, 2019 11:17 PM  

It's very sloppy work but it probably doesn't matter in the scheme of things. After all, not many would notice, and few of those could do anything, and even fewer of those that could would. Sigh, it seems like only a handful.

Blogger PG August 04, 2019 11:36 PM  

@ 64. Noah B.

Everyone downunder remembers Dolly. Sheep are big news here, especially one the size of a cow, so the legend goes.

Blogger Crew August 05, 2019 12:48 AM  

Was the FBI actually responsible for mass shootings over the last few years?

https://www.newstarget.com/2019-08-04-bombshell-mass-shooting-events-fbi-plots.html

Blogger Azimus August 05, 2019 1:13 AM  

I'm not an expert but I don't think this is correct? You're conflating an attendee with an event. For it to be 46%, there would have to have been 22,000 Harvest Festivals.

Blogger dcn August 05, 2019 3:25 AM  

No, every attendee has a chance to have been somewhere else. Think of it this way, are you more likely to find a Parkland victim at a concert of 22,000, or at a Walmart of 100?

Blogger mjusiq August 05, 2019 3:50 AM  

Britain: A nationwide poll has revealed that 89 per cent of 16- to 29-year-olds believe that their lives have no meaning or purpose.

With religion being a major source of sense of purpose, a separate survey reported last month that those professing a Christian faith in the UK is at a record low at 38 per cent, with only one per cent of 18- to 24-year-olds identifying as belonging to the Church of England.

Blogger Avalanche August 05, 2019 9:33 AM  

@7 "Why pull out all the stops right now?"

Well, Pollyanna, hon? This is not even CLOSE to pulling out all the stops! Dirty bomb(s)? Bio-weapon(s)? "Break" the EBT system "by mistake" in a couple big cities?! Oh, there is SO MUCH MORE!

Blogger Avalanche August 05, 2019 9:54 AM  

@54 "So what if we made cards, maybe an 8.5" X 11" cut in 4 pieces on heavy card stock."

I used to make "bookmarks" listing the STD rates of negros; and sneak them into the paperback "teen romance" books at the (majority White-area) library.

Stuffed down so not noticeable till you get the book home and begin reading... Referenced the CDC website and their numbers -- and recommended AGAINST miscegenation. My little effort to protect White girls...

Blogger flyingtiger August 05, 2019 9:56 AM  

You are reading too much into this. Maybe some people are just unlucky? Then again, I notice that after massacres like this, no one avocates for open carry. Shooters never go where people are armed.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd August 05, 2019 10:26 AM  

Avalanche wrote:I used to make "bookmarks" listing the STD rates of negros; and sneak them into the paperback "teen romance" books at the (majority White-area) library.

Well done. A meme of mudshark goggles might be a good update? But meming isn't my strong point.

Blogger BriarRabbit August 05, 2019 10:40 AM  

That sounds reasonable, not far-fetched.

Blogger BriarRabbit August 05, 2019 10:51 AM  

Sorosian. You just put a new word in my vocabulary.

Blogger Uncephalized August 05, 2019 12:05 PM  

[sorry if this is a double post; I tried in Brave browser and something went funny so I'm not sure if the first one went through--mods please delete if it did!]

I may be in error here--I'm sure someone will quickly point it out, if so--but by my math these coincidences are far from astronomically unlikely.

Las Vegas 2017 attendance: 20,000
Gilroy 2019 attendance: 80,000

I don't know how many attendees were actually physically present at each event at the time of the shootings, but I'll assume two thirds, so 14,520 and 52,800.

Proportion of US population present at LV shooting: 14,520 / 350,000,000 = .000041 or .0041%

Proportion of the population NOT at LV is the inverse or 99.9959%

Likelihood of one person being at both events is then: 1 - (.999959^52,800). Which is 88.8%. The number of times this apparently happened is 3, so it's 0.888^3, or 70%.

In other words, through purely random chance it is more likely than not that 3 people who were at the LV 2017 shooting would also be present at the Gilroy shooting.

Making similar estimates about the LV-Parkland connection: 39% likely assuming an average family size of 4, 3000 attendees of Parkland and we are looking for a direct family member involved in both events.

The Borderline-LV coincidence has the lowest odds as I run the numbers, actually quite low, at 0.046% or about 1 chance in 2200, partly because the guy was actually killed, a much lower number than "was also there".

I don't know enough about the San Bernardino or Toronto events to start even making assumptions.

In this model the probability of the LV-Gilroy and LV-Parkland coincidences both happening is 0.70*0.39 = 0.27 or 27%. Just better than 1 in 4.

The very large numbers present at these festivals make for counterintuitive probabilities. The Borderline connection is the only one that even gives me pause, but even 1 in 2200 is not what I'd call "astronomically low".

Blogger Oswald August 05, 2019 3:42 PM  

I think 61 Noah B hit it on the head. This is the media inventing things to bring up other shootings to remind us that this is a problem. It is more fake news.

I would need actual proof to believe that these people were actually in more than one shooting location to believe it. (And I am not talking about they were in Vegas somewhere that night, but at the festival itself.)

The reality is we live a country with a lot of guns and a lot of people on brain altering drugs watching hate spewing news and entertainment around the clock. There is a high probability that these types of things are going to happen. Now that is not to say that the people on the left are not encouraging this. They are. Some of these may be false flags, but they are not likely to be all false flags. If society teaches hate to its children and then supplies them guns, then how can we expect that violence will not erupt in one way or another. Society should quit teaching hate. Guns or no guns, hate will find away to do violence.

Blogger CM August 05, 2019 3:59 PM  

Nope. Same exact thing here.

Blogger Azure Amaranthine August 05, 2019 4:05 PM  

"even 1 in 2200 is not what I'd call "astronomically low"."

One in twenty-two thousand is still not taking all "coincidences" into account, which not only can, but must drive the odds lower.

Blogger Uncephalized August 05, 2019 6:14 PM  

@124 Azure Amaranthine One in twenty-two thousand is still not taking all "coincidences" into account, which not only can, but must drive the odds lower.

1) Twenty-two hundred.

2) Of course. The more independent events you add to the list, the less probable the overall outcome. True for any list of independent events, all the way back to Creation.

But I'm responding to Vox's OP: The odds against one person in a country of 320 million being in the vicinity of two such events are astronomical.

Which is flat-out wrong--unless I am making some boneheaded error, which is always possible, and why I showed my work--and leads me to think Vox didn't bother doing the math at all before jumping to a conspiracy as his explanation.

Blogger Azure Amaranthine August 06, 2019 5:35 PM  

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