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Friday, August 16, 2019

The 10th Generation

Damac quotes a 1973 book that featured some ominous observations concerning societal decline and fall.
The book "The Tenth Generation" George E Mendenhall (1973) is well worth studying in the light of the present historical circumstances. It is an analysis of the rise and fall of civilizations and kingdoms based on the history of the nation of Israel in the Bible. The thesis is that on average, nations only have a life of about 300 years, ten generations, and then they are destroyed from within. This conclusion was based on a study of I think 21 ancient civilizations, some of which, like the Hittites, vanished from the pages of history until exhumed by archaeologists like Mendenhall. He summarizes his findings as follows:

"The Tenth Generation witnessed and took part in the destruction of civilization. It seems possible -- both from direct historical evidence and by analogy with later periods of crisis which seem to be similar in other respects - to make some generalizations about that Tenth Generation."
  1. it is not characterized by poverty.
  2. it is characterized by a relatively high density of population...
  3. a breakdown in confidence in the existing social and political organization.
  4. a rejection of past ideologies and a desire for something new.
  5. there is a loss of sense of direction.
  6. an increasing resort to illegitimate force and violence, which is almost inevitable following the loss of confidence in the political organization which by definition is the "monopoly of force."
  7. the increased insecurity of everyone in the areas is deeply felt, and there may be a sense of foreboding, of impending doom.
  8. Doom comes: by whatever agency is perhaps by now irrelevant. The political, social, and economic structures of society are destroyed or enormously weakened - usually by violence, either from within, or without. Society simply disintegrates.
  9. deurbanization takes place. Cities are abandoned...a high percentage of the population lose their lives and what we call civilization - writing, art ...wealth, literature,...institutionalized religion - either cease to exist, or disappear..."
I find the deurbanization element to be particularly significant, as the almost-instinctive desire to get out of the cities I've been observing among savvier people all over the world for the last ten years tend to fly in the face of the economic and social impulses that continue to draw young people into the cities like sacrifices to Moloch.

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151 Comments:

Blogger C-Speaks August 16, 2019 6:10 AM  

This is fascinating and literally ticks all the boxes of the western world as far as I can see. Might be worth picking this book up. Have you read it yourself Vox?

Blogger Azure Amaranthine August 16, 2019 6:10 AM  

So, the late lifecycle of human clades.

Blogger Johnny August 16, 2019 6:30 AM  

The city will get it first because cities require provisioning, but the big population losses in traditional societies had to be rural or village because that is where most of the people were. Despoiling the countryside while at war was common, and I suppose after that the breakdown in civil order, farming becomes impossible because rogue army or brigand gangs seize stuff. And there goes the food supply.

We are so much more urban that a breakdown would cause very rapid death losses.

Blogger John Rockwell August 16, 2019 6:34 AM  

"I find the deurbanization element to be particularly significant, as the almost-instinctive desire to get out of the cities I've been observing among savvier people all over the world for the last ten years tend to fly in the face of the economic and social impulses that continue to draw young people into the cities like sacrifices to Moloch."

The black death is already cooking in San Francisco as well as Typhus:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MKl6XbRYOG0

The black death killed up to 1/3 to half of Europe back in the day. And cities are very good disease vectors.

Blogger Rick August 16, 2019 6:44 AM  

Civilization is always headed somewhere, but it’s always where it’s already been.
Doesn’t civilization have a telos?
I heard someone say once “Christianity is the cure for religion.” Which could explain the instinctual urge for many to get the hell out of Dodge (the cities of this world). But coincidentally a desire for “freedom from” as much as a “freedom to.” Sigmas know the feeling well. Never at home. Always outside. Because we’re not from around here.

Blogger Brett baker August 16, 2019 6:46 AM  

There's a chance we can pull through. A lot of people won't want to do what's necessary, though.

Blogger JACIII August 16, 2019 6:47 AM  

Looking in from 20 miles outside an urban center (One of the cleaner, more ordered examples): the urban flight paused for a bit after 2009, but if extremely modest rural homes selling for +30% appraisal is any indicator it's on again.

Blogger Alexandráus August 16, 2019 6:50 AM  

Sir Glub also wrote a similar essay coming to the same conclusions. Although he added that societies that did not partake in the wealth usually didn´t end up corrupt. It´s sad to think everything could just vanish and nothing would survive. Although, maybe what survives will be the folks who were smart enough to get out and have a plan to regroup.

Blogger JovianStorm August 16, 2019 7:02 AM  

It's as if the vibrant diversity and unlimited credit bubble are DESTINED to fail!

It's probably why the 10th generalization is "a culture without definition that embraces materialism over inheritance of common values"

Blogger basementhomebrewer August 16, 2019 7:14 AM  

Rogue army or brigand gangs seize stuff.

This is the thing we need to be mindful of. A large portion of the city population is going to take care of itself. However, the survivors are going to be both organized and the nastiest people who lived in the city. They are going to come looking for food and they will be able scavenge enough vehicles/fuel in the city to travel a decent distance.

Most of us just want to be left alone. That's a big reason we moved to a rural area, but it is vital to build community with your neighbors because if things go sideways you are going to need the help repelling raiders.

Blogger Johnny August 16, 2019 7:14 AM  

The big breakdown in civil order that occurred in Palestine/Canaan area occurred because Egypt pulled out of the region. The population loss in the region was extremely high. Guessing, maybe ninety percent. This period is semi-documented in the Bible in the book of Judges. Egypt pulled out, apparently, owing to internal weakness or stress from outside invaders. And the whole Middle east region fell into civil disarray with breakdowns everywhere. Historians usually put it off to a period of low rainfall or invaders. Whatever brought it about, it was catastrophic regional decline.

Blogger Doktor Jeep August 16, 2019 7:15 AM  

One differing factor is technology and how it speeds things up. I remember Art Bell calling it "The Quickening". It's from Highlander but the term fits.
And even now you see the term accellerationism more on the Chan's. Lots of dissafected people so sick of clown world they feel a roll of the dice with chaos is a better option.

Blogger mike August 16, 2019 7:20 AM  

John Glubb's 'The Fate of Empires' has the same topic and thesis. Well worth a read.

Blogger LeeWillyMinifees August 16, 2019 7:29 AM  

The thesis is that on average, nations only have a life of about 300 years, ten generations, and then they are destroyed from within.

Lev Gumilyov independently came to the same conclusion after studying ancient (mostly Turkic, IIRC) civilizations. He's a considered a bona-fide scholar, though not mainstream because he was an "anti-semite". (Lol)

Blogger pyrrhus August 16, 2019 7:31 AM  

As Sir John Glubb found, when women and professional athletes rule society, you are near the end....

Blogger Desdichado August 16, 2019 7:37 AM  

Of course, what this doesn't point out is that revived nations rise from the ashes of the Old. Bronze Age Greek culture went through a Dark Age after about 300 years, but then rose as Classical Greek. They were eventually conquered by the Romans, but then outlasted them to rise as the Eastern Byzantine Empire; which was known to contemporaries as the Romans (sometimes) but which was culturally, linguistically, and to a great degree genetically Greek.

Which was in turn destroyed by a combination of the later Crusades and the Moslem conquest, but the Greeks still exist. They weren't "destroyed" even if their polity was.

There's a natural tendency to interpret this kind of thing through a black-pilled paradigm, but people do emerge on the other side of a Dark Age to rebuild their civilizations along admittedly somewhat different lines, but they are still the literal descendants of the people who's society collapsed in an earlier age.

Blogger CM August 16, 2019 7:50 AM  

I heard someone say once “Christianity is the cure for religion.”

There have been more than a few times where I have thought God's commands throughout old and new testaments are the best way to order civilization that lasts.

But, you know, stupid people. And not in the "lacking intelligence" arena, but in the "arrogance in poking The Lion" sense.

Blogger ZhukovG August 16, 2019 7:51 AM  

@Desdichado: While what you say is true. It clear that modern Greek civilization is not the same civilization as Byzantine.

Same with Italy. Today's Italian civilization is a different civilization from Renaissance Italian civilization.

Same people different civilizations.

Blogger Lovekraft August 16, 2019 8:01 AM  

Lack of restraint becomes a pathological social virus. Without proper checks and balances, messages that would have been stifled out of the gate are given full reign.

Their 'business model' intentionally educates children in resentment, self-hate and historical floundering. This in turn creates action with which they can implement further control.

Getting off this cycle is about, as VD says, returning to fundamental truths and wisdom. If the system is beyond repair, these teachings will carry one through.

And on a military level, it appears that much of our work is establishing 'exit routes' for those who are trying to rebuilt/escape.

Blogger Jamie-R August 16, 2019 8:02 AM  

It's fascinating looking into ancient gods and seeing how the power elite and their secret clubs continue to serve these gods while the general public are Christian. I guess that's how power corrupts, they think they have the inside track, and the symbolism is rife. I didn't even know about the Black Cube of Saturn and what it meant at the 9/11 memorial. Then you figure out stuff about the namesakes of Jupiter and Saturn and realise, okay, power elites for thousands of years have stuck to the same gods while the people eventually found their champion in Christ.

But shit me, Judaism took some of this and incorporated it into their religion, it's challenging to put it all together and realise that these stories are memes throughout human history. Saturday is Saturn's Day which becomes the Jewish Sabbath I can derive that, then it becomes a case of the spiritual world revealing its complexities to human populations and jews today like Epstein and the Hollywood types continue to serve these ancient gods their people developed their interests from, but Moses told them to stop worshiping.

Blogger Peter Millen August 16, 2019 8:09 AM  

With the advent of Christianity, I don't think the 10th generation applies in our current situation. You can argue for example, that France has basically been France since at least the Middle Ages. Germany has been Germany for at least 1,000 years. The Bible does warn about a time of a great "falling away" though.

What gives me some hope is that bona fide Christians are having children and that is projected to make a big difference while the leftist freaks have below replacement levels of births.

Obviously, there are signs of decay though. Like Western countries have growing national debts.

Here is something to consider: "The General Crisis is the term used by some historians to describe the period of widespread conflict and instability that occurred from the early 17th century to the early 18th century in Europe and in more recent historiography in the world at large." source: https://infogalactic.com/info/The_General_Crisis

The Great Depression lasted about 10 years.

There is one good thing. Given the advent of air travel and the Rosetta Stone language CDs, if you have wealth, you can flee to another country easier if your society collapses. But maybe with nationalism on the rise and anti-immigrant sentiment on the rise, that will not be so easy.

Blogger peacefulposter August 16, 2019 8:13 AM  

Too bad the boomers will be too old to trek out of the cities will have to stay close to hospitals etc.

Blogger dc.sunsets August 16, 2019 8:19 AM  

History is impulsive, and as a complex system utterly impervious to volitional influence. Everything (and everyone, including every movement, every revival, every revolt) is in the Matrix, there is nothing outside it.

I concluded that the timing and specifics of the inflection points ahead are unknowable, so "prepping" in the typical sense is a waste of time. You can prep for the aftermath of a hurricane. You can't prep for the end of your society's civilization (which, IMO, has been ongoing since the end of 19th century.)

When the Western Roman Empire dissolved, even the widespread knowledge of how to make something as simple as concrete disappeared. Can we imagine how easy would it be for highly complex knowledge, and production processes dependent on globe-spanning social cooperation, to evaporate? (Oh, the horrors! No more 'Net, no more iPhag.)

Rather than cultivate a taste for outdoor plumbing and living like extras in "The Walking Dead," I chose a different route: I'm learning to play the piano, while considering making sure my kids' families have pianos in-house (one already bought a baby grand.) If civilization matters, then being of Nock's Remnant means (to me) that the best we can do is cultivate civilization, the highest form we can find, in ourselves and in our families.

YMMV.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan August 16, 2019 8:22 AM  

Asians could probably reenforce this hypothesis.

Blogger dc.sunsets August 16, 2019 8:27 AM  

@21 "You can flee..." for the moment. Social trust remains sky high. Wait until people (rightly or wrongly) fear that next plane is full of Typhoid Marys. In a breakdown of civilization, first the plane will be machine-gunned. Next, there we be no more contrails because an engine part, produced by a single source in Someplace-elseburg, cannot be acquired. And your CD player broke, and no one in North America still makes them.

I've a favorite comment WRT such things. Read Leonard Reed's "I, Pencil," embrace just how much social cooperation is required to make a simple No. 2 graphite and wood pencil, and realize just how fragile is the foundation on which (T)oday rests. When globalism fails (and it will, all things with a beginning have an end) then an unimaginable array of modern marvels will disappear with it.

Blogger Peter Millen August 16, 2019 8:29 AM  

@22, Peacefulposter

There are about 76 million American boomers and 7.7 billion people on earth. So American boomers are about 1% of the world's population.

Instead of focusing on that mediocre American generation which is a small portion of humanity, why not focus on something more pleasant?

"Finally, brethren, whatever is true, whatever is honorable, whatever is right, whatever is pure, whatever is lovely, whatever is of good repute, if there is any excellence and if anything worthy of praise, dwell on these things." - Philippians 4:8, Apostle Paul

The Apostle Paul probably saw signs of societal decay, yet he didn't rail on and one about the coming collapse of the Roman Empire.

Blogger peacefulposter August 16, 2019 8:35 AM  

@26 Thanks, Peter.

Blogger GithYankee August 16, 2019 8:42 AM  

Boomers are the largest population bubble of white people in the world. Whites will go from 60% of the US to 40% or less in the next twenty years.
A race already demonized as wealthy and privileged, will become even more wealthy and privileged as 200M rich whites (relative to illiterate bean pickers) become 130M super-rich white people via inheritance.
This is not insignificant.

Blogger JaimeInTexas August 16, 2019 8:43 AM  

@10

As depicted in the book Lucifer's Hammer.

Blogger Lamarck August 16, 2019 8:46 AM  

It's quite incredible how different parts of the world such as Uruguay, the Brazilian south, South Africa, the US, Canada, Sweden, Germany, France, every corner of the world where people of European ancestry live, are, by complete coincidence, in this 10th generation.
I believe this like I believe Gladwell's 10,000 hours rule.

But deurbanization really is the most interesting aspect of the decline.

Blogger binks webelf August 16, 2019 8:48 AM  

23. dc.sunsets -- "History is impulsive, and as a complex system utterly impervious to volitional influence."

In the abstract. In the Real, God has an infinite will, operating above, within, and under all things-- in Him we live and move and have our being, St. Paul quote the Pagan poets to the skeptical Greeks.

That infinite will works particularly in those who love and serve Him, those who discern the signs of the times, and who are willing to step outside the box. Those are the kind of people that Vox, Owen, and the Kurgan are trying to attract & inspire, in their presumed cooperation with the Holy Spirit.

The young nobleman Benedictus, born in chilly Nursia, was in the midst of his studies in Rome around AD500, but saw only change, decay, and the 'party hearty' chaos in the lives of his fellow students.

He needed to get away to some silence, and think. He found a cave, and did so. He stayed, and grew in wisdom, and LOGOS. A few men asked to come and stay with him.

The decision of that one man began all of Western monasticism, those many fortresses of learning, reading & writing, art, medicine, mercy, feeding the poor, invention & inspiration, preserving the seed corn for what would become European Western civilization or Christendom, and reaching out to Christianize & re-civilize Europe.

Thus, "utterly impervious to volitional influence" is not accurate, both in terms of God's will &purpose and providence in & through all thing, people, and circumstances; and it's also not our foundation as Western people and Christians, who owe so much to people like Benedict & his companions, Gregory the Great, and all the others who saw & live for faith & hope where others only saw decline, endings, and decay.

Blogger VD August 16, 2019 8:50 AM  

Instead of focusing on that mediocre American generation which is a small portion of humanity, why not focus on something more pleasant?

We've been trying to ignore them for most of our lives, but they simply won't stop talking about themselves. Stop trying to defend that wicked and evil generation.

Blogger Durandel August 16, 2019 8:53 AM  

As other's mentioned, this is a very similar survey and conclusion to John Glubb's in The Fate of Empires. A pdf is hosted by the University of North Carolina Wilmington http://people.uncw.edu/kozloffm/glubb.pdf

In looking for the book The Tenth Generation: The Origins of the Biblical Tradition by George E. Mendenhall, I found another book that sounds interesting: The Imminent Collapse of America and of the Whole Western Civilization by Angelo Bertolo, a professor of history in Italy (not sure where yet) who tends to analyze things through the philosophical lens of Giovan Battista Vico, a philosopher that Vox might find interesting as they share similar ideas about modern rhetoric...if the Infogalactic page is correct. The intro of the book can be read here. I found these two paragraphs interesting:

"After 60 years, the US is still a superpower - but in proportion the US is less influential in the world today than in 1945. Decadence has already started. Who are the peoples that dare challenge the supremacy of the US today? The Muslim people of the Middle East, the Chinese, the Indians, all people that have shown a high birth rate in the last 60 years, peoples that have also shown a high moral and relgious attitude...and excessive nationalism. The US has shown a declinign fertility in the very same period of time, and a slackening of their moral and religious sense. Europe fares worse. The Vietnamese who dared challenge the American power during the long period of their war showed a formidable 3% increase of their population under those conditions. Their vital driving force was strongest....
I noticed this pattern of higher fertility and general progress in many other historical contexts, different from today's world. This is not to say the high birth rates directly cause progress and expansion, but I notice that those peoples that expanded politically and created science and material progress had been endowed, at an earlier stage of growth, with high birth rates...I also noticed that developing civilizations with high fertility tend to overcome older civilizations that are endowed with higher technology...Powerful and well organized armies with advanced technology are eventually defeated by armies of developing peoples who may be able to absorb their higher technology."

Blogger Cloudbuster August 16, 2019 8:55 AM  

pyrrhus wrote:As Sir John Glubb found, when women and professional athletes rule society, you are near the end....

Glubb agreed precisely on ten generations:

"What then, we may ask, can have been the factor which caused such an extraordinary similarity in the duration of empires, under such diverse conditions, and such utterly different technological achievements? One of the very few units of measurement which have not seriously changed since the
Assyrians is the human ‘generation’, a period of about twenty-five years. Thus a period of 250 years would represent about ten generations of people."

http://people.uncw.edu/kozloffm/glubb.pdf

Blogger dc.sunsets August 16, 2019 9:09 AM  

@33 I also noticed that developing civilizations with high fertility tend to overcome older civilizations that are endowed with higher technology...Powerful and well organized armies with advanced technology are eventually defeated by armies of developing peoples who may be able to absorb their higher technology."

Blank Slate is pervasive, even among (if not especially among) intelligent people.

People look at history and see inevitability. They think that the last 300 years of fantastic technological and scientific progress were baked in, and the specific people (almost entirely NW Europeans) were irrelevant.

They believe this even as science reveals what MADE people of NW European ancestry different. Without Christianity in the Middle Ages, mankind would still be right where it was a thousand years ago. Conditions inside the Hajnal Line were different from every other corner of Earth, and a thousand years of natural and man-made reproductive selection (including gleeful execution of the criminally-inclined, the reason NW Europeans are genetically less inclined to violent crime) yielded the UNIQUE people who created the Modern World (blessings and curses combined.)

As we are in a decline phase, eventually "progress" as people assume normal will cease. The Chinese could rechristen their university programs on engineering "reverse-engineering" classes, as their DNA is not consistent with the break-the-mold/challenge-convention mentality that broad innovation requires. East Asians are too clannish and too conformist at the genetic level to take over from people of NW European ancestry. The world will stagnate as belief in continuous, compound growth (an impossibility in a finite world) will cease to be the dominant religion.

Wars are not lost to human wave attack. Wars are lost when the strong lose heart, when people cease to embrace the civilization of their ancestors and quite literally lay down and die at the feet of savages.

Blogger Durandel August 16, 2019 9:09 AM  

Instead of focusing on that mediocre American generation which is a small portion of humanity, why not focus on something more pleasant?

Just going to state the obvious here for obvious reasons:

The Boomers were never cool. Woodstock was lame/gay/retarded. The Beatles suck and are the worst thing to happen to popular music in history. The world will be better off when the last Boomer breathes their final breath.

Let the wailing and gnashing of teeth commence.

Blogger Peter Millen August 16, 2019 9:13 AM  

@32, VD

I focused on fighting secular, leftist freaks for about 15 years, but I come to the realization that if you focus on something negative too much, it is definnitely not good.

Sometimes it is best to turn the channel so to speak. I think the Apostle Paul is entirely correct. Focus on what is pure and lovely. And I have a beautiful Christian lady as a girlfriend so God has made it easy for me. I am going to focus on things like faith/church, work, family, my girlfriend and exercise.

Focusing on boomers, SJWs, secular leftists, Marxists, Chinese communists, etc will create a sour outlook on life.

There is a time for everything as Solomon famously said, but you have to have perspective and not let anger towards evil people consume you.

Blogger Durandel August 16, 2019 9:20 AM  

@35 dc.sunsets

Agree that blank slate is a joke. I found the intro thesis of the book interesting more from him tying the rise and fall of civilizations to birth rate and faith, than I how he thinks challengers may win.

That said, on this particular focus you mentioned, the differences of Asians may mean they can't develop tech as quickly, or they can't further it but they can adopt and use it. Either way, that is all that is needed to win against the West. Same for Muslims. Infantada and at least learning our systems and exploting them, along with learning to use our tech, is all that is needed to win. And while Europeans are a key part to the very development and existence of the industrial revolution and the development of modern science, the other major part was Christianity. What happens when China becomes majority Christian? Who is to say such an event would not change their mental paradigm overtime and lead to a development and growth that surpasses the Europeans? As and Italian, I'm not in favor of such, but I think it's a possibility. If biology is 60% of our behavior, we should not discount the other 40% nor the gene-culture co-evolution, especially since culture is the lived out belief of a people.

Blogger Peter Millen August 16, 2019 9:30 AM  

@38, Durandel,

Christianity is growing like wildfire in China and Chinese Christians appear to be tough as nails. On the other hand, Chinese communists are tough too. I think the Chinese Christians will prevail. The Chinese Christian province has the highest IQ in China (see:http://examiningatheism.blogspot.com/2017/03/chinas-christian-province-had-highest.html ) . The Chinese Christians probably have more children.

It is possible that the 21st century is going to be an Asian century. On the other hand, America has a way of bouncing back. God willing, I plan on retiring in Asia in a pretty Christianized/Westernized part of Asia. So maybe I will get the best of both worlds!

Blogger David Craig August 16, 2019 9:31 AM  

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Blogger Gregory the Great August 16, 2019 9:31 AM  

Peter Millen wrote:@32, VD
There is a time for everything as Solomon famously said, but you have to have perspective and not let anger towards evil people consume you.


Enjoy what you have now, but don't worry, the time to fight will come back soon enough. Life is a jungle, and Evil has a large mosquito army, you can't avoid being bitten and then you will want to swat back.

Blogger David Ray Milton August 16, 2019 9:33 AM  

Let those in Jerusalem flee to the mountains...

Five years. I’m giving my family five years.

Blogger Durandel August 16, 2019 9:37 AM  

@39 - leave Asia alone you filthy immivader. Besides, they aren't stupid enough to welcome immivaders who are not expats into their midst. Unless you are hoping to be a part of Xi's plan of every Chinese household having a European slave.

Put yeah, God bless the persecuted Chinese Christians.

Blogger Peter Millen August 16, 2019 9:39 AM  

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Blogger dc.sunsets August 16, 2019 9:42 AM  

@38 My take is that 80% of everything human (including behavior and belief) is DNA, the other 20% is unknown (but it is probably NOT shared environment, that's been systematically demonstrated as false as things now stand.)

Culture is aggregated individual DNA, absent the mimicry we see when a relative few individuals exist amidst a larger, foreign culture. The mimicry disappears as soon as the "foreign" culture individuals obtain a threshold in numbers.

I will be long gone before my thesis about all this is tested. I think the last 300 years were an incredible one-off, and that Humanity's lot is a return to something a lot more common to the larger animal kingdom. The Clovis People existed in North America essentially unchanged for tens of thousands of years. People today have trouble recalling last Tuesday, and ever-fewer of us can imagine much about next year. Time beyond our lifespan is always a distant abstraction. Conjecture about conditions even a hundred years from now is a parlor game, especially now that human innovation has yielded innumerable means of collective vice (developments superficially nice but that will turn out later to be phenomenally self-destructive...and it could be something as seemingly innocuous as polyester fabric, whose tiny fibers liberated in washing machines end up in the oceans with unknown-as-yet effects, the Internet itself, or something big like biowarfare or cobalt nukes.)

I hope for my descendants that Mike Judge's Idiocracy is not the future, for it leads to a return to humanity's condition prior to 10,000 BC. But I'm an ant, riding on a leaf that floats down a wide river. I am irrelevant to the river; my only relevance is to my family and very immediate neighbors. That's a feature, not a bug. I'm small-scale optimistic in the time-frame that is relevant to ME, and that's good enough.

I do know that (1) taming Nature's culling of our species inevitably yields weakness and (2) I'm not stupid enough to welcome a return of such culling, as I would hate to see child mortality return to "normal" given that my family is not somehow immune to such harshness. This life is a gift. I prefer to treat it that way.

Blogger Peter Millen August 16, 2019 9:43 AM  

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Blogger Welleran August 16, 2019 9:47 AM  

Others have mentioned Glubbs essay, I did a rudimentary confirmation for personal use of nation's and civilizations that Glubb didn't mention in his work and found that 240-400 years to be a fairly comprehensive range for the lifespan of both nations and states regardless of geography or culture. It put into perspective that while the crusader states are considered to have been failures as a whole and one or two in particular came up to an otherwise respectable age al things considered.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan August 16, 2019 9:51 AM  

Nothing wrong with thinking about good things, to not would probably have you fall into the usual trap that conservatives love and end up tailgating the Left/evil. Don't be a tailgater.

Of all the things on Unauthorized TV I subscribe to the one on gardening is my choice. In my estimation conservatives have been educated enough on the doom and decline, it's high time we seek out the weaknesses of our enemies and exploit them. I have choked down enough black pills.

Blogger Peter Millen August 16, 2019 9:52 AM  

@32, VD

An addendum:

I worked in a hospital and met a semi-homeless ex-Russian, older women there who was a doctor in the former Soviet Union (In desperation, she was living with two lesbians at the time and was definitely not happy about this situation as she was definitely not a lesbian). I felt sorry for her and I took her in. One thing I learned from her is that you have to adapt. Obviously, she had to adapt after the Soviet Union fell. She told me that to be successful in life, it is often best not to be too hard-headed and be more adaptable.

Yes, the boomers caused a big mess. But you have to adapt. You have to have a Marine Corps attitude and adapt and prevail. Crying over spilt milk and being angry at the people who caused it is not going to help you make the best of your life. And it is not going to help you be productive so you can better help others.

Blogger bodenlose Schweinerei August 16, 2019 9:54 AM  

Lots of dissafected people so sick of clown world they feel a roll of the dice with chaos is a better option.

Because they have no clue what they pining for. "Clown world" will seem like paradise when you're watching people you care about die from the lack of modern medicine like insulin while you all hunker down to hide from the roaming cannibal gangs.

There's no analogue for the de-civilization of a nation of 300 million+, utterly reliant on a vast and vulnerable infrastructure and powered by a single resource that requires enormous investment and technology to utilize. Many, from preppers to fake nihilists, secretly seem to believe "yeah things will be kinda bad, but Walmart will be open again in a few years". They'll be disabused of such frivolous notions in the grave.

Blogger Peter Millen August 16, 2019 10:03 AM  

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Blogger Avalanche August 16, 2019 10:05 AM  

@3 "We are so much more urban that a breakdown would cause very rapid death losses."

Steve Stirling, writing as S.M. Stirling, has written a good post-apocalyptic series "Dies the Fire" trilogy -- requires a bit of suspension of disbelief about the causal concept of the loss of explosive 'functions,' guns no longer work, gas engines don't operate, planes cease flying, etc. Accept that concept and the series provides a mostly realistic, deeply disturbing picture of a variety of ways the world falls to hell. Caveat: I have only read the first three books in what has become a huge series.

In this series, your protagonist group, via a bit of not too annoying deus ex machina, escapes Seattle in a horse-drawn wagon from a museum exhibition out to privately owned land far up in the Cascades. Watching their partially successful adjustments; and the maladjustments of others: e.g., a return to vicious feudalism and slavery in Seattle; sad deaths of the medicine-dependent; and the formation of new 'societies' across the Pac NW was well done and thought provoking.

I also found Stirling's Draka series both moving and though-provoking. Haven't read any more of his stuff.

Blogger Peter Millen August 16, 2019 10:06 AM  

@43

The part of Asia I plan on moving to is very pro-American.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan August 16, 2019 10:06 AM  

Why don't we displace Clown World?

Blogger Peter Millen August 16, 2019 10:12 AM  

There is a big global trend of moving towards urbanization (see: http://www.unesco.org/education/tlsf/mods/theme_c/popups/mod13t01s009.html ). I don't see this ending anytime soon.

Modern farming requires less people. Yields on crops is high. "Long-term cereal yields in the United Kingdom indicate 500 kg/ha in Medieval times, jumping to 2000 kg/ha in the Industrial Revolution, and jumping again to 8000 kg/ha in the Green Revolution."- Wikipedia, Look how fast crop yied is going up: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/long-term-cereal-yields-in-the-united-kingdom?time=1270..2014

Blogger Peter Millen August 16, 2019 10:26 AM  

@41 Gregory the Great,

I see the secular left in the West being like the former Soviet Union. They are imploding.

I did my part in terms of battling them (like for 15 years at a high level), but now I want to move on.

I am thinking about what the Apostle Paul said about thinking of good things. And I am thinking of the words of Solomon who said there is a time to throw stones and a time to gather them up.

And why should I battle the secular left for another 15 years when I feel confident that they will implode within 10 years. Once France/Germany shift to the right, secular leftism in the West is effectively dead. In addition, the area where I plan to retire in, God willing, atheists are as rare as unicorns.

Blogger Stephen August 16, 2019 10:46 AM  

"We've been trying to ignore them for most of our lives..."
Tons of evidence that statement is false.

Blogger Tars Tarkas August 16, 2019 10:50 AM  

Previous trends are probably not that relevant.
A loss of technology is probably not going to be a loss to where we were 300 or 500 years ago and it is not likely to happen simultaneously all over the world.
IMHO the decline will be slow and relative and isolated.

Blogger Peter Millen August 16, 2019 10:59 AM  

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Blogger Gregory the Great August 16, 2019 11:00 AM  

@56 Peter Millen: Peter, evil will find ways to attack you wherever you are, no matter how old you are. If you have fought back for 15 years, good on you, but don't count on your well-deserved spot in paradise appearing in this world.

Blogger wahr01 August 16, 2019 11:04 AM  

GithYankee wrote:Boomers are the largest population bubble of white people in the world. Whites will go from 60% of the US to 40% or less in the next twenty years.

A race already demonized as wealthy and privileged, will become even more wealthy and privileged as 200M rich whites (relative to illiterate bean pickers) become 130M super-rich white people via inheritance.

This is not insignificant.



There is no "inheritance".
The boomers sold the geese that laid the golden eggs to our enemies in the third world, then spent their and their parents' wealth in their lifetimes, leaving nothing behind.

They will die broke, as a now famous book advises them, leaving their kids to deal with the angry "diversity" they imported as labor slaves.

Blogger Peter Millen August 16, 2019 11:04 AM  

Things were better before the evil boomers and their evil progeny the GenX/millennials arrived on the scene. But why fret over this?

As King Solomon said, "Do not say, 'Why is it that the former days were better than these?' For it is not from wisdom that you ask about this." - Ecclesiastes 7:10

Blogger allyn71 August 16, 2019 11:06 AM  

@ Peter Millen

We don't care

We don't care what you think, we don't care what you did, we don't care what your plans are, we don't care.

Blogger [Redacted] August 16, 2019 11:09 AM  

"But we were at the end of history! We were going to live forever as Gods like the bad guys on too many episodes of Star Trek! What happened!? Our generation beat racism when William Shatner kissed a black woman on the hoodlenoodle! Everything was so cheap!"

Blogger dc.sunsets August 16, 2019 11:14 AM  

@55 "Modern farming requires less people."

Really? Can you enumerate the people involved in not just driving the seed drills and combined harvesters, but ALL of the people in ALL of the industries that bring the machines, the seeds, the fertilizer, the pesticides and all into being, from mine or oil field to the finished goods?

How many hundreds of millions of people underlie all that? In what parts of the world are some of those things found exclusively? On just HOW MUCH cooperation does all that depend? Note that the foundation of ALL that exchange is some form of market-derived pricing, without which resource allocation is quite literally impossible? Have you noticed that most people are so clueless that they think "socialism" (LITERALLY the elimination of market-derived price signals) is "the way to go?"

You seem like a nice guy, but to me you're indescribably naive.

Never have so many people existed in an impenetrable fog of ignorance about from where all the stuff they so take for granted comes, about the Steuben-glass fragility of all that social cooperation required for that vast system to exist.

In (IIRC) the early 1920's one-in-ten marriages recorded in Hamburg were between a Jew and a Gentile. When in the early 1930's some British people presciently saw what was coming and moved across the planet to avoid the future war, they chose places in the South Pacific and Singapore.

People are very, very lousy at seeing what's coming.

Whenever I'm tempted to think Everything Is (Permanently) Awesome, I look at the ration cards my parents kept from when my dad was dodging aerial bombing on Guadalcanal and my mother was trying to buy a bag of sugar.

Blogger Crew August 16, 2019 11:18 AM  

And apparently Mohamed El-Erian observes that the Era of Deglobalization is here and those companies heavily invested in China and overseas generally are worried ...

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2019/08/15/nails-it-economic-analyst-el-erian-the-era-of-de-globalization-is-here/

Blogger Peter Millen August 16, 2019 11:19 AM  

@60

As a Christian, I don't worry about evil finding me. The Apostle Paul didn't worry about execution under the Romans because he knew he would wind up paradise.

Also, if I wind up marrying my girlfriend, she wants 3-4 kids. Regardless, I plan on marrying a lady who is pro-natal. And when you have have 3-4 children, you spend a lot of time working, raising your kids and giving attention to your wife. Plus, there is church, family, friends, etc. In addition, I want to use my web marketing talents to spread the gospel online and keeping up on web marketing is a challenge.

After all is said and done, I will not have time to dwell on secular leftists, the SJW fad, etc. And I really see their ideology in the West quickly withering at an increased pace. First, it died in Eastern Europe, then Brexit, then Trump and now it is dying in Western Europe and Latin America. It's like a crumbling, burning building. It's last stronghold is China/North Korea and I see it dying there as Christianity grows there.

Blogger allyn71 August 16, 2019 11:23 AM  

Still don't care

Blogger Peter Millen August 16, 2019 11:27 AM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Gregory the Great August 16, 2019 11:27 AM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger wahr01 August 16, 2019 11:29 AM  

@65

What's interesting about what you mention is most of the actual production facilities have long since left the cities due to the cost of living and taxation/regulation of facilities.

The only thing left in these urban areas are managerial-class parasites and a youth consumer class that exits once daddy's (or student loan) money runs out.

"Muh trends toward urbanization" make little sense given over half of those under 35 are making their exit plans from major megalopoli for the same reasons the manufacturers already have.

Regarding "the fall of civilization":

Obama has already destroyed rule of law and the untouchable class he created reside in coastal cities. A sane counter to this from sane people would be to do what Obama did with immigration.. but with national defense of cities:

Pull the military out to an exclusion perimeter, then go on a tour of our various global enemies (as Obama did with south and central America) discussing how they should definitely not take advantage of this with many winks and nods.

Blogger Gregory the Great August 16, 2019 11:29 AM  

@allyn71
I have now stopped caring, too.

Blogger HoosierHillbilly August 16, 2019 11:30 AM  

Mr. Millen, I'm basking in the afterglow of a succesful squirrel hunt, and so am feeling generous to my fellow man.

There is an old rule of thumb here from days of yore: if you have commented on a post more than five times, it is time to take a walk outside for a bit.

Blogger allyn71 August 16, 2019 11:32 AM  

HH FTW

Blogger The Cooler August 16, 2019 11:34 AM  

Peter Millen,

We are all quite capable of walking and chewing gum at the same time, here. Your parochialism is going to get you into trouble; so go take an extra tribulus, smack your girl's ass and fucking relax.

Blogger dc.sunsets August 16, 2019 11:34 AM  

My former comrades in libertarianism are fond of suggesting that trade fosters peace. As usual, people get the direction of causality backwards.

Trust fosters peace. Trust fosters openness and industry and cooperation and thus trade. But trust is a first-order derivative of social mood, and can thus be inferred from watching the behavior of the herd in markets.

Social trust was last quite low in the 1930's. It led to a crushing worldwide deflationary depression and World War Two. It rose from the early 1940's to the 1960's, then paused for few years, then took off higher (first in the form of openness to immigration and the repudiation of what was previously popular: eugenics, and eventually to the market for IOU's in 1981 and followed a year later by the stock market.)

Somewhere along the line rising social trust became a mania, and eventually its own religion. Globalism, open borders, essentially all the Left's dogma about race, sex and biology are a function of social trust raised to a folei a plusiers literally a "madness of the many." Charles Mackay, were he alive today, would surely marvel at our condition.

Never are people more certain of a trend's upward continuation than near the end of a very long rally. Even today's bears and preppers largely sound like they think a "trend change" will be like the 1930's and early 1940's, or at worst the 1860's. Few seem to realize how far out on a limb we've gotten, and we're the ones sawing furiously at the wood behind us.

It's a waste of time to forecast the ultimate top of a trend that spans centuries. A 10% error is half a lifetime, and if stocks get above their daily moving averages it's entirely possible we'll see yet another vast rally even as trust in the veracity of long-term IOU's has hit a new All Time High (the 30-year T-bond hit a new ATL yield yesterday.)

But man is this a great backdrop to the thesis that the West has coasted on its ancestors coattails into an incredibly high-altitude flame-out and we're alive to witness it.

Blogger Jack Amok August 16, 2019 11:36 AM  

I plan on retiring in Asia in a pretty Christianized/Westernized part of Asia.

Sure, Wye not.

Blogger The Observer August 16, 2019 11:37 AM  

@65

"Really? Can you enumerate the people involved in not just driving the seed drills and combined harvesters, but ALL of the people in ALL of the industries that bring the machines, the seeds, the fertilizer, the pesticides and all into being, from mine or oil field to the finished goods?"

I work in the industry, so I have some idea. The glyphosate that kills the weeds comes is likely to have been sourced from petroleum feedstock in the middle east, produced in China as technical, transformed into something usable by farmers in Vietnam, then re-shipped again to wherever it's to be used. The fertilisers that modern monoculture depend on from plantings upon plantings draining the soil follow a similar process. All of these are supply chains are global, and a single disruption, say, a war closing a major shipping lane means modern farmers who have forgotten everything that their ancestors knew about stewarding the land are helpless. These inputs can't be produced locally because all the manufacturing was either environmentally regulated or cost-priced out of western countries long ago. If the NPK doesn't get to the fields in time, the crop is either delayed or outright fails because of the terrible soil.

If anything, modern farming takes more people and is far more fragile to slight perturbances than what was practiced 150 years ago. Throwing out meaningless buzzwords like "backhoes, forklifts, robots, AI, high crop yields" and avoiding the point that there are far more people involved in the far more fragile process than what one sees in the fields simply proves that one isn't interested in truth.

Blogger Peter Millen August 16, 2019 11:39 AM  

@65 dc.sunsets,

We live in a time of backhoes, forklifts, robots, AI, high crop yields, etc.

Pure manpower (low skilled labor) is becoming less and less needed over time. And the pace of automation/AI is growing faster. The prophet Daniel spoke of this. The Bible declares: ""But as for you, Daniel, conceal these words and seal up the book until the end of time; many will go back and forth, and knowledge will increase." - Daniel 12:4 Did the Bible predict an "information age" and a time of easy travel?

Leftists might cry about the Statue of Liberty inscription and the USA supposedly needing low skilled people, but those days are over. Countries need high skilled people and people who are entrepreneurial. So educational systems are going to have to change. If they don't change in a society, those societies will be laggards.

Blogger Crew August 16, 2019 11:42 AM  

@Peter, your words are so wise, I will have to go start a company to build machines to replace all that low-skilled labor out there.

If only I could offset the votes of all those low-skilled legals and illegals.

Ahhh, I know. We will extend the franchise to AIs. That should work.

Blogger The Observer August 16, 2019 11:44 AM  

Guys, can we just stop touching the poop now?

It's clear that it's poop. Please follow the Dark Lord's advice and not be baited.

Blogger Tars Tarkas August 16, 2019 11:48 AM  

dc.sunsets wrote:Really? Can you enumerate the people involved in not just driving the seed drills and combined harvesters, but ALL of the people in ALL of the industries that bring the machines, the seeds, the fertilizer, the pesticides and all into being, from mine or oil field to the finished goods?

But this is true of everything. You would be hard pressed to find any industry about which you could not say the same thing.

It is more accurate to say that we are all highly dependent on extremely complex systems.

Blogger Peter Millen August 16, 2019 11:57 AM  

@77

I am just tired of fighting fanatical fools. As far as I am concerned, I won. Even atheists are now admitting the atheism movement is dead in the West (see: https://www.conservapedia.com/Decline_of_the_atheist_movement#cite_note-2 ). PZ Myers, a former antagonist of Vox Day, recently said, "History will not remember me..." (see: https://examiningatheism.blogspot.com/2017/01/apparently-pz-myers-recognizes-that-new.html).

I don't pretend to deserve to retire in a tropical island with a lovely, sweet Christian lady, but it is a motivating thing to strive for. And I think it is doable. With God, gumption and hard work, many things become possible.

One thing I am not going to do for sure, is be a doom and gloomer and be depressed (or be bitter and angry). I read the Book of Revelation. Christians win!

Blogger Joseph Dooley August 16, 2019 12:03 PM  

The flight of people from resource-starved cities forms the basis of the climax of the book One Second After, a post-apocalyptic novel about an EMP attack on the US. Interesting read.

Blogger Peter Millen August 16, 2019 12:09 PM  

@80.Crew

I just decided to take the Vox Day route. Flee America. Go to a place with nice people and good food.

And given that I can use my web skills to help Christian ministries anywhere in the world, I don't have to be forced to a land there may be civil strife in the future - namely the USA. Worst case scenario I will live in the American South or South Dakota (were there are still a significant amount of fairly normal people).

Blogger Balam August 16, 2019 12:10 PM  

dc.sunsets wrote:My former comrades in libertarianism are fond of suggesting that trade fosters peace. As usual, people get the direction of causality backwards.

Vox commented on that very thing. I guess libertarians argue about trade and war a lot. He summed it up as, "Trade does not reduce the likelihood of war, to the contrary, the stresses it necessarily causes the relationship between to countries tends to increase the probability of war taking place." Makes a lot of sense to me: why would anyone declare war on a country they have nothing to do with. On the other hand invading and taking over that place that sells you the nice spices and pearls for your own profit is very appealing and lines up with the history of colonization wars well enough.

https://voxday.blogspot.com/2018/09/trade-and-war.html

Peter Millen wrote:Pure manpower (low skilled labor) is becoming less and less needed over time. And the pace of automation/AI is growing faster.
...
Leftists might cry about the Statue of Liberty inscription and the USA supposedly needing low skilled people, but those days are over. Countries need high skilled people and people who are entrepreneurial. So educational systems are going to have to change. If they don't change in a society, those societies will be laggards.


Dumb, I've been hearing that line all my life. This mentality that the fundamental nature of people, labor, community and economics have changed and need changing is where the 'service industry' BS came from that gutted the US economy and made it reliant on mega banks and insurance companies. It led to the open borders H1-B abuses of today where instead of your beautiful sci-fi uptopian ubermensh of the high IQ it's a race to the bottom of street shitting coders who crash $100 million dollar planes.

Blogger Noah B. August 16, 2019 12:10 PM  

But this is true of everything. You would be hard pressed to find any industry about which you could not say the same thing.

It is more accurate to say that we are all highly dependent on extremely complex systems.


Many people have a mistaken belief that rural areas can continue functioning almost independently of cities. Today that is not even close to being true.

Blogger Brick Hardslab August 16, 2019 12:22 PM  

He's got bit by the Xena lesbian pixie warrior bug but if you can ignore the fact that 50% of the top tier fighters in the world are women the series is ok.

Steve's fans expect Xena type women and airships.

Blogger Garuna August 16, 2019 12:30 PM  

Yes, the boomers caused a big mess. But you have to adapt. You have to have a Marine Corps attitude and adapt and prevail. Crying over spilt milk and being angry at the people who caused it is not going to help you make the best of your life. And it is not going to help you be productive so you can better help others.

Boomers and their defenders should be bashed, preferably to death. And then they should be buried just so that their graves can be desecrated.

Blogger Peter Millen August 16, 2019 12:32 PM  

$86. Balam

I am all for Trump bringing back industry in the West as it definitely is bringing back jobs.

But I do see automation, robotics and AI taking away a lot of jobs in the future that will have to be replaced with other jobs. For example, there is a company that just came out of with some software that scans through hundreds of resumes and spits out the best handfull of resumes. An automated beer truck just delivered a cargo of beer without the driver having to take over the wheel (this doesn't mean that drivers will never be in trucks in the future. Machines malfunction, snow, etc.). Technology takes over low skilled jobs and forces people to develop higher level skills. That is a long standing trend.

Does that mean that Trump should cave in the trade war? Of course not, there are still lots of jobs in the manufacturing field. It will take time for robotics/AI to further develop. And even with robots/AI there will have to be people to fix the machines, make the steel, deliver the parts, etc.

I am definitely not a sci-fi utopian. Man has an evil nature. He brings trouble wherever he is.

Blogger Gregory the Great August 16, 2019 12:45 PM  

@Peter Millen: You have won, indeed. Everyone else has left the room, and
- if the moderators do not remove you - will never come back.

Blogger The Depolrable Podunk Ken Ramsey August 16, 2019 12:45 PM  

Lately I've been reading what I can about the broad civilizational collapse that happened in the Late Bronze Age. It was a stunning development, plunging civilizations into a longer and more expansive Dark Age long before the one that happened when Rome collapsed. This 10-generation theory is another aspect to consider. Theories about what caused all this are all over the place!

Johnny wrote:The big breakdown in civil order that occurred in Palestine/Canaan area occurred because Egypt pulled out of the region. The population loss in the region was extremely high. Guessing, maybe ninety percent. This period is semi-documented in the Bible in the book of Judges. Egypt pulled out, apparently, owing to internal weakness or stress from outside invaders. And the whole Middle east region fell into civil disarray with breakdowns everywhere. Historians usually put it off to a period of low rainfall or invaders. Whatever brought it about, it was catastrophic regional decline.

Egypt was the only civilization left standing after the Late Bronze Age collapse. Many vibrant civilizations were around, they all just stopped on a dime. They were surprisingly inter-connected, in ways that would make today's free traders proud. Did these connections pull each one down in a domino effect? Maybe. There were the Sea Peoples, a mysterious group of marauders who used to get a lot of blame for what happened as an external disruptive force. Did they cause it, or were they opportunists who fed and hastened the decline? The money is on the latter these days.

Records are incomplete, still better than most realize, but not enough to yield satisfactory answers. One thing is for sure in the archeological records, cities were abandoned en masse everywhere. And quite suddenly. The city of Ugarit, for example, went from a major, flourishing capital to total abandonment seemingly overnight.

I look for modern examples of this feature, finding places like Detroit, Youngstown, Baltimore, many American "inner cities". In the case of Detroit the city went from being one of the most prosperous and nicest places to live on the globe to an abandoned mess in an astonishingly short time. It remains there in a haunting state of decay and ruin.

If this begins to happen elsewhere, such as in Europe, then we'll know. The Dark Ages are stirring again.

Blogger Laramie Hirsch August 16, 2019 12:45 PM  

Sacrifices to Moloch...

VD, wow. I wrote some fiction years ago about a young naive guy going to New York. It was called The Road to Moloch. It needs to be re-edited.

Blogger Peter Millen August 16, 2019 12:46 PM  

89. Garuna

I said boomers are evil. I said boomers had evil progeny who are even more evil. Both these things are true. These are not compliments to boomers.

The truth is that boomers are fat. And their progeny are fatter. Alcoholism is on the rise in the USA (see: https://www.webmd.com/mental-health/addiction/news/20170809/alcohol-use-abuse-on-the-rise-in-us ). In the Old Testament days, disobedient sons were stoned and the people cried out they were gluttons and drunkards.

At the same time, I do see some positive things possibly coming down the road as the religious people in the West are having more children than the irreligious/nonreligious. And Trump gave the USA somewhat of a breather from leftism.

Blogger Durandel August 16, 2019 12:49 PM  

@45 dc.sunsets - Are you familiar with the concept of genetic entropy? I'm not too well versed, but the theory along with memories/behaviors passing on in genetics I find fascinating for their implication: virtue probably begets further virtue and degeneration begets degeneration being the key one. Anyway, check this: https://www.geneticentropy.org/latest-development#!

Ronald Fisher was one the great scientists of the last century, and his theorem, published in 1930, and was the foundational work that gave rise to neo-Darwinian theory and the field of population genetics. This new paper shows that Fisher’s mathematical formulation and his conclusion were wrong. Furthermore, the new paper corrects Fisher’s work — thus reversing Fisher’s thesis and establishing a new theorem. Fisher had claimed that his theorem was a mathematical proof of evolution — making the continuous increase in fitness a universal and mathematically certain natural law. The corrected theorem shows that just the opposite is true — fitness must very consistently degenerate — making macroevolution impossible. The new paper by Basener and Sanford, is in the Journal of Mathematical Biology (available here)....

The problems with Fisher’s theorem were that: 1) it was initially formulated in a way that did not allow for any type of dynamical analysis; 2) it did not account for new mutations; and 3) it consequently did not consider the net fitness effect of new mutations. The newly formulated version of Fisher’s theorem has now been mathematically proven. It is shown to yield identical results as the original formulation, when using the original formulation’s assumptions (no mutations). The new theorem incorporates two competing factors: a) the affect of natural selection, which consistently drives fitness upward; and 2) the affect of new mutations, which consistently drive fitness downward. It is shown that the actual efficiency of natural selection and the actual rate and distribution of new mutations determined whether a population’s fitness will increase of decrease over time. Further analysis indicates that realistic rates and distributions of mutations make sustained fitness gain extremely problematic, while fitness decline become more probable. The authors observe that the more realistic the parameters, the more likely becomes fitness decline.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash August 16, 2019 12:50 PM  

Peter Millen wrote:With the advent of Christianity, I don't think the 10th generation applies in our current situation. You can argue for example, that France has basically been France since at least the Middle Ages. Germany has been Germany for at least 1,000 years.
This is simply false. Did you never learn about the Renaissance, the 30 Years war, the French Revolution, the Unification of Germany, the breakdown of the Holy Roman Empire?
The French are still there, but their civilization has changed remarkably over that thousand years, most notably during the French Revolution, 230 years ago. 300 years before that was nothing interesting. Except the Black Death, and the Renaissance.
You can keep going back, and you will keep seeing these break points, 250 to 350 years apart, in every civilization. Yes, even Christian ones.

Blogger DonReynolds August 16, 2019 12:52 PM  

This appears very similar to the one by Sjoberg in Sweden of a very long cycle of civilization. He did not generalize, but used the Roman experience.

The Sjoberg cycle is 800 years long with 300 years of rapid urbanization followed by what we characterize as 500 years of Dark Ages. This seems to coincide with the 10th Generation, in that the urbanization pretty much ends after 300 years. Sjoberg says the present period of rapid urbanization started in 1750.

Another aspect, perhaps unmentioned in the 10th Generation is the fact that civilization may not be an event but a regular and recurring cycle. Yes, there was one Roman Empire, but there have been repeated attempts to recreate that European civilization ever since. After all, the barbarian Germanic tribes did not hate the Romans, they wanted to BE the Romans.

And one final point, the Dark Ages are not actually all that Dark. Feudalism is a political adaptation to rural life. Learning and knowledge still continues, but nobody seems interested in changing anything quickly. Whether it is Sjoberg or the 10th Generation, there seems to be agreement that city life is the temporary exception in human civilization, rather than the rule.

Blogger Sheila4g August 16, 2019 12:52 PM  

@16 Desdichado: "Which was in turn destroyed by a combination of the later Crusades and the Moslem conquest, but the Greeks still exist. They weren't "destroyed" even if their polity was." Well, kinda sorta. At the risk of drawing the ire of people typically fiercely proud of their Greek heritage, I've read a fair bit indicating modern Greeks are dramatically different, genetically, from those who built famed Greek civilization. I'm sorry, no links at the moment and I'm too lazy to look them up, but I'm truly not pulling info out of my backside.

Blogger Sheila4g August 16, 2019 12:58 PM  

@52 Avalanche: The Stirling books do start out well, but quit while you're ahead. They get crazier as they go on until I quit in disgust at magical Arthurian prophecy and, of course, womyn. He's also really into lesbians and homosexuals, who appear more prominently in later books (his Island trilogy, a companion series on Nantucket which vanishes more than 1000 years in the past at the same time the modern world changes, is filled with diversity and features a lesbian negress coast guard officer as its heroine and an evil White guy from Montana as the villain). Stay away at all cost.

Blogger Azure Amaranthine August 16, 2019 1:13 PM  

"Civilization is always headed somewhere, but it’s always where it’s already been.
Doesn’t civilization have a telos?"


Individuals periodically die too. Think of it as a larger example of the same.

"Of course, what this doesn't point out is that revived nations rise from the ashes of the Old."

Not true. Descendant nations appear, part of the former, and part of something else.


As for you, Peter, increased AI and automation is a pipe-dream and a scare tactic. Both are increasingly complex systems that are only composed on top of certain infrastructure, and only maintainable by a tiny slice of even the direct progeny of the people who currently maintain them.

What does this mean? It means that AI and complete automation are like the foam on top of beer. No beer, no foam. The more complex the system, the more often it needs maintenance and the more difficult that maintenance. Some few people can keep ten plates spinning at once, but the type of replacement you're thinking could happen will necessarily indirectly reduce that number.

What you're talking about is like saying "then let them eat cake". No one's going to be flying if no one's even able to walk.

Blogger Peter Millen August 16, 2019 1:14 PM  

96. Snidely Whiplash

You wrote: "This is simply false. Did you never learn about the Renaissance, the 30 Years war, the French Revolution, the Unification of Germany, the breakdown of the Holy Roman Empire? The French are still there, but their civilization has changed remarkably over that thousand years, most notably during the French Revolution, 230 years ago."

Change is a part of life. I know people hate change, nevertheless change is inevitable. Any book on French/German history goes back a long time. The Swiss confederacy was in 1291 for example so we have have almost 800 years there.

Using various data, a good case can be made that Christianity increases social stability (see: https://www.conservapedia.com/Christianity_and_social_stability and https://archive.is/cDMnA).

Protestantism increases economic productivity too and that is part of the reason China recently had an economic boon (see: https://tifwe.org/the-protestant-work-ethic-alive-well-in-china/).

And there is good data showing Protestant cultures have less corruption than Catholic ones and curruption is a big reason why cultures/civilization collapse (see: http://elaine.ie/2009/03/31/will-10-more-protestants-lead-to-less-corruption/ ). You really don't see as many banana type republics with corrupt dictators in Protestant countries.

So I don't think it is reasonable to compare the longevity of Christian cultures/empires to non-christian ones.

Blogger The Cooler August 16, 2019 1:18 PM  

I've read a fair bit indicating modern Greeks are dramatically different, genetically, from those who built famed Greek civilization.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/08/greeks-really-do-have-near-mythical-origins-ancient-dna-reveals

Blogger Azure Amaranthine August 16, 2019 1:32 PM  

"So I don't think it is reasonable to compare the longevity of Christian cultures/empires to non-christian ones."

This isn't a very accurate analogy, but you can think of it as being like a medical plan. Good discipline and good medical care increase average life expectancy drastically.

Then you realize that most of that increase is because of reduced infant mortality. More children live to adulthood and senescence, but because of that many of them were obviously sickly or ill from the very beginning.... Even for the most healthy, there's still a set lifespan, and a time appointed to die.

Alternatively, look at it like the philosophical "car" problem. How many parts replaced before it's not the same car? Most strictly speaking, it's a different car after the first part replacement. Nations don't "rise from the ashes". "Offspring" nations that are part the same and part different replace them, and if one lives in much the same place you could even call them the primary heir.

Blogger The Cooler August 16, 2019 1:35 PM  

@98 @102 So 3/4-ish genetic overlap. Co-author of the study, George Stamatoyannopoulos of the University of Washington in Seattle, describes this 'continuity' as "particularly striking"...

Blogger Azure Amaranthine August 16, 2019 1:39 PM  

That being said, if most nations die at around 300 years, we can hypothesize that this indicates an approximate age for a "natal" nation to die of its inherent inadequacies. A born-healthy but now senescent nation might be a few thousand years old then, if the analogy is roughly proportional.

Of course it's fractal, so even though the larger pattern looks very similar to the smaller one, expect there to be very noticeable differences as well....

Blogger Peter Millen August 16, 2019 1:51 PM  

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Blogger buwaya August 16, 2019 1:52 PM  

This is visible elsewhere, but one of the points raised by Hyppolite Taine, is of the remarkable continuity of, say, the French bureaucracy pre and post Revolution. France was still France, socially, culturally and institutionally, post Revolution, families and land ownership and the French economy and its systems survived. Even the aristocracy survived for the most part. There was a period of slightly accelerated change in the 30 years post 1789, but probably not as accelerated as the change during France's Industrial Revolution, 1870-1900.

The Comedie Francaise is still there and still operating 350 years after its founding, and its still producing much the same sort of stuff. I bet the audiences for these are about the same too, after 350 years of fairly constant mutation.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash August 16, 2019 1:52 PM  

@Peter Millen,
Good job ignoring the examples and moving the goalposts.
No one contended that the French somehow went away, only that the state politic, "France", collapsed and became something else, at the cost of considerable human death and suffering. Even the Christianity that you claim inoculates a nation against collapse has failed, and resurrected as something different about every 300 years in Europe. Until it collapsed finally during the French Revolution and is now almost completely dead.
Or do you not recall the Vendee?

Blogger Peter Millen August 16, 2019 1:56 PM  

@103. Azure Amaranthine

People are living longer. And some civilizations are living longer and healthy like Japan. In Japan people don't have poor diet and exercise routiness like the USA so dementia is more rare. And generally speaking, wisdom does increase with age.

Plus data storage is cheap.

So the odds of a society collapsing and people not knowing how to create cement goes dramatically down (someone mentioned a society collapsing and people not knowing how to create cement).

In short, civilizations can reboot themselves faster perhaps after a downturn.

On top of this biblical Christianity is seeing dramatic growth in the world in Asia, Latin America etc and this strain of Christianity creates more social stability.

I realize as a Christian that darkness will increase in the end times. There is also a distinct possibility of a future major clash between Christians/Muslim since they are the ones having children. Should Jesus tarry, Here is a demographic projection for 2100 from the Demming Institute: "Christians and Muslims together will encompass two-thirds of the global population—more than 7 billion individuals. In 2100, the majority of the world’s 11.6 billion residents will be adherents of religious traditions." source: http://denninginstitute.com/pjd/PUBS/futurist-sep12.pdf

Blogger buwaya August 16, 2019 2:19 PM  

On the whole there has been a continuity in European civilization at least, and of much of the rest of the world, without population replacements and of a continuity of culture, for a thousand years more or less. Land titles in many places can be traced through chains of possession, archives exist, even natal and marriage records sometimes go back that far.

There is great cultural continuity as well, transmitted through the Church in large part, but not always just the church.

There are very large parts of rural-small town Europe where the population of modern villages and towns are direct descendants of their people of a thousand years ago. Not all of them of course, there have been abandoned villages and massacres and population movements, but on the whole it is more of a continuum.

In Spanish towns for instance (and Spain had a fair bit of upheaval, through the reconquista), it is fairly common to be able to trace families into the 14th century and earlier.

Blogger Peter Millen August 16, 2019 2:21 PM  

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Blogger buwaya August 16, 2019 2:23 PM  

"only that the state politic, "France", collapsed and became something else,"

But it hasn't. The French state was never replaced wholesale, arguably not since the Carolingians. Rulers took over existing structures.

Britain had a massive disjunct after 1066, but France never had such a sudden reorganization.

Blogger Peter Millen August 16, 2019 2:25 PM  

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Blogger pyrrhus August 16, 2019 2:31 PM  

France changed profoundly during the Revolution and Napolean's reign...France historically had high birth rates and was very religious..It became much less religious, and the birth rate was cut in half by the drop in Catholicism and Napolean's wholesale slaughter of young frenchmen in stupid wars..That changed history. If France's birth rate had stayed high, it would have dominated Europe by sheer size, not Germany...But Germany's birth rate stayed high into the 20th century, so it became the major power.

Blogger Peter Millen August 16, 2019 2:35 PM  

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

Blogger Theproductofafineeduction August 16, 2019 2:35 PM  

@23

What's interesting about the Roman concrete was that it wasn't lost all at once but gradually abandoned due to the difficulty in obtaining the essential agreement of pozzolana.

The Europeans also adapted, the high middle ages saw an increase in the building of the large sort of structures undertaken by the Romans via cathedrals and great castles but rather than utilizing concrete they developed better mortar of high quality even without the use of pozzolona.

It makes me wonder how we will adapt in the coming years. I expect we will see the development of very decentralized power, plumbing and irrigation systems (at least in the parts of the world that maintain a high level of European settlement.)

Blogger Greg Hunt August 16, 2019 3:10 PM  

Gith yankee
What inheritance?
Apres moi, le deluge.
They've made no secret that they're leaving nothing behind.

Blogger Oswald August 16, 2019 3:36 PM  

The older I get the more I am thinking the Mennonites are right and we are wrong. Technology is neither good nor bad, but when it goes bad it really goes bad. (Changing sex organs!) We are definitely in a change cycle, and not a good one.

To me, the population density numbers that this article lists as cause is the most important factor in determining the strength or weakness of a civilization. France during their dominance had a significant advantage in numbers over their neighbors. Later Germany had the manpower. America, due to abortion, would currently have a falling population, if not for the large amount of legal and illegal immigration.
Why abortion and immigration are not discussed together, I do not know. The left I know why they do not talk about it, but people on the right are silent on it as well, when the two obviously have a connection. A country has a vested interest in maintaining a healthy population. To say that women's individual rights trumps a country's right to guarantee the next generation is absurd. The fact that such argument is accepted by many is a sign of how sick our civilization is. It is also morally wrong from my perspective, but from a strictly nation state perspective it is something that should be regulated in such away to insure there are future generations. Also, a nation has a right to decide what people may immigrate here. The fact that this is in dispute is another sign that all is not well in our culture. I would say that even of civilizations that collapsed from within generally there was always some outside invader that came in to take cover. In the modern world the invaders are invited in to stay and out reproduce the locals!

Blogger plishman August 16, 2019 4:05 PM  

Possibly relevant:

How Complex Systems Fail: https://web.mit.edu/2.75/resources/random/How%20Complex%20Systems%20Fail.pdf

Behavioural Sink: https://infogalactic.com/info/Behavioral_sink

Theory of Catabolic Collapse: https://www.ecoshock.org/transcripts/greer_on_collapse.pdf

Blogger plishman August 16, 2019 4:07 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger plishman August 16, 2019 4:48 PM  

Rough summary (from memory):
Complex Systems: Operate mostly broken when operating normally, failure results from the coalescence of many undefended apparently trivial failures in disparate parts of the system.

Behavioural Sink: Overcrowding, even (especially?) when in the presence of sufficient resources to sustain life results in the destruction of the young amongst females and perversion amongst males, which conspires to prevent the foundation and success of families and the continuation of the society.

Catabolic Collapse: Occurs when the rate at which infrastructure can be renewed can no longer keep pace with the rate at which it becomes unserviceable.

Blogger Dirk Manly August 16, 2019 6:40 PM  

@36

"Woodstock was lame/gay/retarded."

And what is rarely mentioned, is that the only thing which prevented it from becoming a mass casualty event is THE ARMY FLYING IN FOOD, WATER, BLANKETS, TENTS, FIELD TOILETS(*) AND MEDICAL SUPPLIES.

(*) An 1800's outhouse is a luxurious palace by comparison -- for one thing, the outhouse has walls and a door.

Blogger Dirk Manly August 16, 2019 7:18 PM  

@87

"Many people have a mistaken belief that rural areas can continue functioning almost independently of cities. Today that is not even close to being true."


Name 10 things of value which are produced exclusively in American cities that can't be procured from producers in suburban or rural locations.

A previous poster had it right -- the ONLY thing left in the cities are "company headquarters" which are filled primarily with paper-pushing "managers" who are so far removed from the actual production of anything that they are just parasites.... and only because the "CEO class"(*) wants to live in the city where all the bars/nightclubs/etc. are.

Pretty much, the ONLY thing cities offer now are restaurants, entertainment, and various vices.


(*) Because, in their minds, they deserve to be upper management, right out of mediocre schools like Harvard(**), because daddy was a CEO.... and since their friends' families own enough stock in enough companies, he'll be hired in only 3 levels down from CEO at the age of 25 or so.

(**) My uncle, who was the head of Personell at Cadillac Motor Car Division Plant #1, says that, by and large, the worst applicants for engineering and management positions were from Harvard, followed closely by Yale. Generally, unable to think their way through small problem-solving scenarios. And this was even back in the 1980s. I can't imagine that it's improved for those schools since then, seeing how they actively turn away smart people in favor of "who does your family know" and/or "how distressingly pathetic was your K-12 school system under the exclusive control of Democrats for the last several decades?"

Blogger Dirk Manly August 16, 2019 7:29 PM  

@89

"Yes, the boomers caused a big mess. But you have to adapt."

Ah yes, after deliberately T-boning a number of cars and trucks on the interstate, causing a huge traffic jam for everybody behind them, they let out a pack of wolves out of the trailer they were towing, and have now taken up positions on the high side of the embankment with a scoped hunting rifle, shooting at tow-trucks, ambulances, fire trucks, the people who run/use those vehicles, and anybody else trying to fix the situation.

Adapt -- my ass. In general, that generation deserves woodchippers, feet first, at best. The activists, politicians, and managerial types among them deserve crucifixion to schaphism. The only exception being for those who voluntarily spent more than a 2-year draft hitch in the armed forces (which does NOT include those who spent 6 years in the reserves or national guard solely as a way to avoid 2 years of service by draft.)

Blogger Theproductofafineeduction August 16, 2019 7:47 PM  

He’s right and no amount of gnashing of teeth will change that.

Blogger Dirk Manly August 16, 2019 7:48 PM  

@101

"Change is a part of life. I know people hate change, nevertheless change is inevitable."

Change FOR THE SAKE OF CHANGE is nothing less than sabotage, as it destroys the usefulness of what already exists, and what has already been purchased through the time and energy to make it, while yielding no additional benefits.

Remember IBM's answer to the generic 80x86 PC running the same MS operating system as the IBM PC.... "microchannel architecture"...under a patent, for which IBM intended to take a substantial cut out of every non-IBM-produced motherboard and/or peripheral card.

Thankfully, the people who made purchasing decisions at that time were smart enough to realize that microchannel architecture offered nothing to them other than increased costs and being locked into buying only from IBM..... in other words, from the purchaser's point of view, "change for the sake of change" and nothing else.

I can accept change. Hell, I'm part of an industry that CREATES change.
But that doesn't mean that all change is good.

Computer CONTROLLED ignition in cars isn't good. The computer dies, and now your car won't even start until you replace a $300~$500 module. Computer ASSISTED ignition optimization would be an change worth having -- using the computer to run a controller that modulates engine vacuum as seen by a "vacuum advance" based distributor. Ah, but that leaves a car with a dead engine still drivable, and doesn't force the owner DIRECTLY to the nearest dealer, who is charging $300+ (labor not included) for a $20 computer.

Blogger Dirk Manly August 16, 2019 8:00 PM  

@98

"I've read a fair bit indicating modern Greeks are dramatically different, genetically, from those who built famed Greek civilization."

Judging by the geography and the seas described in The Odyssey, (whirl pools, passing through a narrows and landing on Islands long BEFORE reaching the edge of the open ocean, it is safe to say that the Greeks originally came from what is now Scandinavia, or the eastern shores of the Baltic. Those northern waters have several prominent, and permanent gyres (whirlpools) and there is the straights between Jutland and southern Sweden. And lots of islands.

The only question is this, how much of The Illiad and The Odyssey is a synthesis of two different narratives, and how much (and which parts) come from the older stories coming from those northern seas? The story well could be over 10,000 years old, and there is not a single artifact at the excavation in Turkey that is being called "Troy" that has anything in writing found inside it that proclaimed the name of the place as Troy. For all we know, Troy was in Lithuania, or Sweden, and all the other Greek cities could be named for other port cities that were on the northern seas and which also were wiped out in the worldwide deluge (which every civilization around the globe attests to).

Blogger Dirk Manly August 16, 2019 8:06 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Dirk Manly August 16, 2019 9:27 PM  

@109

"Plus data storage is cheap."

Modern data storage any extremely complex, and extremely expensive to read.
Ink on paper is moderately more expensive to write, but is 100% free to read.

Even considered-obsolete microfilm requires lenses (not invented until the 1600s) and continuous, even (non-flickering) illumination, which requires something better than just a flaming log.

Blogger JonM August 16, 2019 9:38 PM  

Dirk, my man. How about the role urban centers play as logistic centers? The rural areas depend on them for anything that can't be locally sourced. And a whole lot of things that can't be locally sourced play a vital role in producing the things that can.

Now sure, the rurals can adjust and adapt to that loss. Less sugar. Less cheap energy. Less of pretty much everything. Losing the shipping centers and all that infrastructure is going to hurt Team Rural in a big and deadly way.

Blogger Azure Amaranthine August 16, 2019 10:10 PM  

"How about the role urban centers play as logistic centers?"

Logistics can be done literally anywhere. Efficient modes of transportation matter. Population density is irrelevant.

" The rural areas depend on them for anything that can't be locally sourced."

Lie. They depend on other rural areas. Since the roads typically go through the cities the shipping does too. The only other factor is proximity to sales. Cities produce nothing that requires cities.

So, quality roads and inexpensive distribution.

Tell me, what happens when the city infrastructure fails and the mammonfacturers have no reason to channel it through city parasite forms in order to extract democratic votes? The city roads go to pot and become rife with starving bandits, and all the actual buyers go rural to get out of the shitpit?

You suck up the losses on distribution, and probably produce products of higher value-to-volume to offset it. Rural lives will get somewhat harder for a time, and then adapt. City lives will end.

Blogger Dirk Manly August 16, 2019 10:41 PM  

@130

"Dirk, my man. How about the role urban centers play as logistic centers? The rural areas depend on them for anything that can't be locally sourced. And a whole lot of things that can't be locally sourced play a vital role in producing the things that can."

Go look up the actual locations of the logistics centers for major manufacturers and major retailers.

The retailers' logistic centers are in semi-rural areas, and the manufacturers tend to have theirs in ex-urban areas.

And when travelling via the Interstate Highway system, there is no need to go THROUGH most major cities, as there are now 2xx/4xx/6xx numbered bypass routes so that you don't have to go through "downtown whatever".

Seriously, the entirety of the top 20 major cities in the country could fall into giant sink holes, and the ONLY thing that the productive people would miss is the contract-writers, the NYC/SF-based banking system, and corporate-level IT. All of the rest of those in the "corporate offices" tend to be overhead.

Blogger Ska_Boss August 16, 2019 11:34 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Crew August 17, 2019 12:05 AM  

Cities tend to be centers of political power, it seems to me ...

Blogger Dirk Manly August 17, 2019 12:25 AM  

That's about all that cities offer any more. Political power / taxpayer budgets. But outside of cronyism, what do they offer economically?

Blogger Jack Amok August 17, 2019 1:00 AM  

Dirk, my man. How about the role urban centers play as logistic centers?

What is the compulsion people have to spout off about crap they obviously don't know a damn thing about?

Go look up a map of Amazon distribution centers before you embarrass yourself again, my man.

Blogger JonM August 17, 2019 1:52 AM  

Thanks for the additional analysis, but...Lighten up, Francis. It was a question. With some added context of my understanding of the situation.

Blogger PG August 17, 2019 1:52 AM  

This reminds me of "Tragedy and Hope"

Everywhere I look I see these predictions playing out. This year the word Alchemy and Alchemist have surfaced and have been incorporated in business names and conversations - I ask people where these have come from, and they don't know! Pagan spells, smudge sticks made and burnt to clear bad vibes, magical medicine, potions and witches are making a comeback. I know people with large stone circles that burn fires in a spooky otherworldly manner. And people wonder why I prefer to stay at home storing up food, books, and "weapons"

Blogger The Depolrable Podunk Ken Ramsey August 17, 2019 3:33 AM  

Dirk Manly wrote:@98

"I've read a fair bit indicating modern Greeks are dramatically different, genetically, from those who built famed Greek civilization."

Judging by the geography and the seas described in The Odyssey, (whirl pools, passing through a narrows and landing on Islands long BEFORE reaching the edge of the open ocean, it is safe to say that the Greeks originally came from what is now Scandinavia, or the eastern shores of the Baltic. Those northern waters have several prominent, and permanent gyres (whirlpools) and there is the straights between Jutland and southern Sweden. And lots of islands.

The only question is this, how much of The Illiad and The Odyssey is a synthesis of two different narratives, and how much (and which parts) come from the older stories coming from those northern seas? The story well could be over 10,000 years old, and there is not a single artifact at the excavation in Turkey that is being called "Troy" that has anything in writing found inside it that proclaimed the name of the place as Troy. For all we know, Troy was in Lithuania, or Sweden, and all the other Greek cities could be named for other port cities that were on the northern seas and which also were wiped out in the worldwide deluge (which every civilization around the globe attests to).


An interesting theory, Dirk. The Greek language, at least, has some pretty strong ties to the Mediterranean world reaching back through the Bronze Age, though. "Linear B" puts Greek civilization in the Med since at least 1450 BC. "Linear A" reaches back until 1800 BC at least, although we can't say for sure it's describing a Greek language, it is related to Linear B which does describe a Greek language.

I like the expansive idea you have, though, that the Bronze Age included more than just the variously known fertile crescents. Yet some say a Michigan copper culture (yes, Michigan) supplied enormous troves of copper to ?Somebody? in the Bronze Age, then promptly disappeared when the Bronze Age Collapse hit the Med.

Blogger Dirk Manly August 17, 2019 6:38 AM  

We absolutely know for sure that Michigan copper was being exported across the Atlantic.

The question is "When?"

More than likely, the Michigan copper found in artifacts from dynastic Egypt comes from earlier, pre-flood artifacts which were transported by whatever civilization it was the carved the Sphinx (enclosure walls date to, at earliest, 10,500 BC) and built the Pyramids, and all of the other various megalithic structures around the world which include hunks of granite so large and heavy that, even today, we have NO machinery which can lift them. (for example, 300+ ton blocks of granite 5 meters tall by 8 meters wide by 50 meters long). Bright Insight on youtube has a good collection of videos on these various sites around the world (he's documented about 3x as many as I was aware of before seeing his vids).

We know for a fact that Michigan's copper has been mined for over 10,000 years. Pure copper is still so plentiful in Michigan that nuggets up to 10 tons are still found occasionally, the most recent about 20 years ago, along a known vein, but under the surface of Lake Superior. The diver (a geology professor) had a hunch that he could find nuggets of copper along that vein laying on the surface if he looked underwater. The interesting part about this is... such a nugget would NOT have been driven there by glacial action, because the bottoms of glaciers in this area always moved southward (even if a glacier is "retreating" northwards, all that means is that the face is melting (northwards) faster than the glacier is flowing (southwards)).

But copper from Michigan mines is easily identified by the trace impurities that remain after smelting.

Blogger The Cooler August 17, 2019 9:26 AM  

An interesting theory, Dirk.

If one completely ignores all of philology and historiography, the entirety of the linguistic, archeological, anthropological, historical and genetic records -- and -- takes a shit all over epistemology, yes, it's fascinating.

Blogger John Rockwell August 17, 2019 11:42 AM  

"It's fascinating looking into ancient gods and seeing how the power elite and their secret clubs continue to serve these gods while the general public are Christian. I guess that's how power corrupts, they think they have the inside track, and the symbolism is rife."

Power attracts the corrupt. And corrupt forces bars the non-corrupt from power. The higher the level of power the more likely to encounter high-level demons.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash August 17, 2019 2:32 PM  

It is virtually certain that there was trade across the Atlantic in pre-Classical times. Both Brendan the Navigator and Columbus had maps of some type. Back then, even as today, the natural currents will move a ship from Africa to S America to N America to Europe, though it will take months.

Blogger The Cooler August 17, 2019 3:30 PM  

It is virtually certain that there was trade across the Atlantic in pre-Classical times.

This is true.

it is safe to say that the Greeks originally came from what is now Scandinavia, or the eastern shores of the Baltic.

This is horseshit.

Blogger KPKinSunnyPhiladelphia August 17, 2019 4:20 PM  

So, to paraphrase, it doesn't matter what sort of generation comes in 7th, 8th, or 9th place, by the 10th it's shit out of luck.

Whew, and I thought it was the Boomers' fault. Silly me.

Blogger Dirk Manly August 17, 2019 4:39 PM  

@143

The "Piers Reis" map was known in Europe in the early 1400's, and contains accurate coastlines of all the continents, INCLUDING the Antarctic coastline (not the glacier line.... the COASTline). This is another piece of information which somehow survived the great flood.

Blogger Dirk Manly August 17, 2019 4:41 PM  

If the Greeks didn't come from the north, then why does the Odyssey describe waters that do NOT match the Mediterranean in any way other than city names, but matches the northern seas rather well?

The story comes from the north.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash August 17, 2019 7:17 PM  

THe Piri Reis map does not show the coastline of Antarctica. It shows the Atlantic coastline of the southern half of S America, turned 90 degrees, either because the cartographer didn't read The Navigator's logs correctly, or more likely because the parchment on which it was drawn ran out of room.
The coastline drawn shows no break between S Brazil and what is claimed to be Antarctica, and where did Argentina go? The purported Antarctic coastline also does not match the Antarctica, but does match the coastline of Argentina.

Blogger Damac August 17, 2019 10:56 PM  

Durandel wrote:@45 dc.sunsets - Are you familiar with the concept of genetic entropy? I'm not too well versed, but the theory along with memories/behaviors passing on in genetics I find fascinating for their implication: virtue probably begets further virtue and degeneration begets degeneration being the key one. Anyway, check this: https://www.geneticentropy.org/latest-development#!

I think that you would find it helpful to read up on the "Epigenome." The idea of some sort of intelligence controlling the construction of proteins and the other chemicals which give a cell life from the data in the genetic library which make a living cell work was mooted as long ago as 1942. However it is only recently that this controller was finally found - around 2006 I think from memory. It is called the "Epigenome" and comes into the ovum from the sperm at conception along with the male genetic material in the chromosomes and immediately starts accessing the genetic information in the genome which duplicates the cell and itself within about 20 minutes. It contains millions of pages of information which describe the construction of every cell and its location in the creature, whatever it is, flower, fish or you. This welter of information is accurately copied in each cell as it divides almost instantly with each cell division. There is some evidence that the way the information is expressed, especially regarding the brain, can be influenced by external circumstances and decisions made. This can apparently affect the epigenomes in the gonads and can then be passed on to subsequent generations. Perhaps the Roman Catholic church is right and original sin can be passed on to all of us. (As a Protestant Christian, I blush to admit this!)
Here are a list of a few books which would interest you:
Epigenetics. A Graphic Guide (2017) ISBN:978-184831-862-5
The Ultimate Mystery of Inheritance (2011) ISBN: 978-0-393-07005-7
The Developing Genome (2015) ISBN: 978-0-19-992234-5
Exploding the Gene Myth (1997) ISBN: 0-8070-0429-4
In the Beginning was Information (2003) ISBN: 3-89397-255-2

Blogger Snidely Whiplash August 18, 2019 12:23 AM  

Damac wrote:. Perhaps the Roman Catholic church is right and original sin can be passed on to all of us. (As a Protestant Christian, I blush to admit this!)
You realize that the Catholic (and Orthodox,a nd Lutheran, etc etc etc) doctrine of Original Sin is exactly the same idea as the Calvinist doctrine of complete Depravity, right?
And it does not depend on genetics, but the laws of property inheritance.

Blogger Unknown August 19, 2019 7:47 AM  

Dirk Manly wrote:If the Greeks didn't come from the north, then why does the Odyssey describe waters that do NOT match the Mediterranean in any way other than city names, but matches the northern seas rather well?

The story comes from the north.


First off just because Ancient Greek oral story tellers may have added descriptions of waters outside the Mediterranean doesn't mean the story originated outside of the region of the Aegean sea. After all the Ancient Greeks were seafarers and have traveled to places outside of Mediterranean not to mention the various foreign peoples the Greeks have traded with who no doubt have described the seas outside the Mediterranean.

Second the Ancient Greeks were known to exaggerate so unless you also believe in the Olympian gods, sirens, cyclopes and the rest of Greek mythology it is safe to say the Odyssey isn't 100% accurate. So what is more believable that the Ancient Greeks were Scandinavians and the Trojan war happened in the Baltic or that it happened in the Aegean as told in the Odyssey for which we have actual evidence?

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