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Friday, August 02, 2019

The correct Brexit deal

Prime Minister Boris Johnson may be a historian, but I'm confident he can do the math dictated by the recent by-election that cut his parliamentary majority to one.
The Liberal Democrats' Jane Dodds gave the Prime Minister a political headache as she overcame an 8,000-vote Conservative majority to take the Welsh seat for the Remainer party.

Disgraced expenses cheat Tory Chris Davies, whose conviction and expulsion via a recall petition forced the summer vote, held on to second with a better than expected showing despite the presence of the Brexit Party.... Ms Dodds, 55, secured a majority of 1,425 after a 'Remain alliance' with Plaid and the Greens, and Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson signalled this morning that she wants to extend the tie-up to a swathe of other winnable seats.
  • Jane Dodds (Lib Dem): 13,826  
  • Chris Davies (Conservatives: 12,401
  • Des Parkinson (Brexit Party) 3,331 
  • Tom Davies (Labour ) 1,680 
  • Lady Lily The Pink (Monster Raving Loony) 334 
  • Liz Phillips (Ukip) 242 
A Leave alliance with the Brexit Party means the Conservatives will easily win the next general election, which looks increasingly likely for any of a variety of possible reasons. But it also means that the Conservatives have to stop faffing around with idiotic "increase legal immigration" talk and other nonsense that literally no one actually cares about. Of course, given the fact that they were foolish enough to try to convince the Brecon electorate to accept a convicted criminal who had been recalled by petition as their MP, they may not be capable of accepting the obvious political logic here.

The other interesting fact is the way in which Labour got absolutely destroyed. Its position as a weak Remain party appears to be untenable in the current circumstances.

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19 Comments:

Blogger Jonathon Davies August 02, 2019 6:13 AM  

Never trust the Tories. They are masters of cucking. Without pressure from the Brexit Party, Boris may try to rehash Theresa May's old "deal." Boris knows he can beat Corbyn, as he's utterly useless and couldn't even beat May, possibly the worst PM ever. However, the Brexit Party can wreak havoc in key marginals, especially when the Tories are up against the remainer Lib Dems. Tories look after themselves first and foremost. If they think they could actually lose and the gravy train might end, it should concentrate a few minds.

Blogger Eric Waite August 02, 2019 6:16 AM  

It can't be mere coincidence that the Conservative and Labor candidates have the same last name.

Blogger Bert Head August 02, 2019 7:16 AM  

Some names are very common in Wales, so traditionally would be qualified as "Evans the milk".
Davies the con, Davies the red, should sort it.

Blogger Stilicho August 02, 2019 7:29 AM  

There's another pattern shown here too: as the pendulum swings to the right, the left becomes more extreme/in the face of rising K, the r's become more rabbitlike.

Blogger LiveForever August 02, 2019 7:39 AM  

Traitor May laid a series of mines for Boris in order to undermine his leadership as the new PM and this was one of them.

She approved Chris Davies as a candidate knowing full well he was a convicted expenses cheat, instead of getting in a new Brexit supporting candidate who was untainted. Even so, with an expenses cheat candidate and a Remain party alliance, the Lib Dems scraped a c1,500 majority. They'll lose the seat at the next election.

Blogger Steb August 02, 2019 7:53 AM  

On 1st November the government will announce that we've left the EU while parliament and the EU insist we've remained. We'll need another election to find out who's right.

Blogger Stilicho August 02, 2019 7:58 AM  

Drop the Euro and bring back the shillimg while you're at it. Make the pound sterling great again.

Blogger JACIII August 02, 2019 8:22 AM  

Less process more progress, ya' Limey bastards.

Blogger Brett baker August 02, 2019 9:06 AM  

They never adopted the Euro.

Blogger doctrev August 02, 2019 9:11 AM  

Lads, I love your optimism, and I definitely want the obvious step of uniting the Brexit Party and the Tories. Problem is, the Brexit Party exists because the Tories are obviously inferior. Meamwhile, the opposition is going all-out to game Parliament. Lib Dems in one district, Labour in another, SNP in another. What TPTB would love is a Lib Dem minority government, to make it clear that Brexit is dead. The odds stacked against the Brexiteers are humongous, and while I wish Farage all the luck in the world, at least part of the Conservative Party is also under orders to tank Brexit.

So it's likely that the Conservative Party will suffer its worst defeat in decades, similar to how Justin Trudeau swept into power in Canada despite being a callow incompetent. Then... we'll just see, won't we.

Blogger wahr01 August 02, 2019 9:20 AM  

A clear and splitter strategy is at work here and the fact both Conservatives and Farage persisted in this is an increasing signal one or both are "in" on it.

I submit VD is far too optimistic here, and if Boris wanted to leave he'd have made announcing an alliance with Brexit Party his first priority.

He does not, and by launching a separate party rather than pulling a Corbyn and leading an insurrection in the extant conservatives there's a good chance Farage is also a stealth remainer.

After all, you can't keep up a career moaning about the EU if the EU is no longer a problem for your country.

Blogger Teleros August 02, 2019 9:29 AM  

Another point to consider is that, per Guido, various Remoaner parties pulled out of the election to give the Lib Dems an easier time of it.

LiveForever wrote:Traitor May laid a series of mines for Boris in order to undermine his leadership as the new PM and this was one of them.
Yup. Treasonous May left a whole host of problems for her successor (ie BoJo, as everyone knew it would be).

Stilicho wrote:Drop the Euro and bring back the shillimg while you're at it. Make the pound sterling great again.
We don't have the Euro, but back in the early 60s or 70s we scrapped the old LSD system. Easier for the computers maybe, but I'm not sure it was a good idea for us mere mortals.

doctrev wrote:Lads, I love your optimism, and I definitely want the obvious step of uniting the Brexit Party and the Tories. Problem is, the Brexit Party exists because the Tories are obviously inferior.
You have to work with what you've got. The US has Trump, a civic nationalist, leading a party full of neoclowns and other RINOs. We have BoJo, a political creature, leading a party full of Remoaners and the like.

doctrev wrote:The odds stacked against the Brexiteers are humongous, and while I wish Farage all the luck in the world, at least part of the Conservative Party is also under orders to tank Brexit.
Don't forget, BoJo will be able to pull the Tories out of some seats to give the Brexit Party an easy run (eg Dominic Grieve's or Ken Clarke's seats). Given a recent ConHome poll showed that Tory members were extremely happy with the new cabinet make-up, and that 2/3 of the Tory party voted for the pro-Brexit candidate... a suitably ruthless Boris Johnson could easily cull a lot of the Remoaner Tories come the next election.

Blogger VD August 02, 2019 9:36 AM  

I submit VD is far too optimistic here, and if Boris wanted to leave he'd have made announcing an alliance with Brexit Party his first priority.

I have a moderate degree of confidence in Boris's vanity. He does NOT want to wind up like Theresa May. And the only way he can fulfill his destiny of being another Churchill is to lead Britain out of the EU.

Blogger wahr01 August 02, 2019 9:53 AM  

VD wrote:I submit VD is far too optimistic here, and if Boris wanted to leave he'd have made announcing an alliance with Brexit Party his first priority.

I have a moderate degree of confidence in Boris's vanity. He does NOT want to wind up like Theresa May. And the only way he can fulfill his destiny of being another Churchill is to lead Britain out of the EU.


During his campaign, Boris's Trumpian persona was so notably abesent it caught the attention of many in the commentariat.

Given this, I am very confident in his ability to act out the required part in the kabuki theater required to game "first past the post" to assure the will of 60% of the electorate takes a back-seat to their globalist "betters".

Farage on LBC recently caught Boris "letting slip" a statement about exiting years from now: Clearly there was too much hope in the conservatives' internal polling at the time to properly split the electorate and some doubt had to be sowed.

Blogger John Best. August 02, 2019 10:17 AM  

I think Boris is the same level of politician as Thatcher, an excellent politician who is swayed by the trends of the time. Unlike the witch May or the warlock Blair who are members of the witch coven faction of the British state. In Thatchers time the underlying trend was globalist/liberalism and the fight against communism, now the trend is for nationalism and the fight against globalism. So Johnson will be swayed by this. As Vox says he will be a hero if he gets Britain out of the EU and remembered by his people. He would have a proper lasting legacy like that of Churchill, Henry V, Richard the Lionheart and Alfred the Great. Also something else Vox said in his view, Boris is a wrong man who will do the right thing. However after Boris we still need the right person who actually believes in nationalism and Christianity, to maintain what he did in the crisis, but be less revered by history. Men like Ian Paisley, Ian Smith and Enoch Powell.

Blogger Karen took the Kids August 02, 2019 5:36 PM  

Sargon did a real number on UKIP. When the local weirdo is outscoring you its probably time to give up.

Blogger John Best. August 02, 2019 8:58 PM  

@16 I couldn't agree more. UKIP is done and dusted.

Blogger damaris.tighe August 02, 2019 11:36 PM  

This is not a good election to judge. The Tories stood a candidate who was offensive to the voters - I read electors petitioned a recall election due to his corruption. He still did well and I suspect the government will be heartened about their prospects.

Blogger SciVo August 03, 2019 2:56 AM  

wahr01 wrote:He does not, and by launching a separate party rather than pulling a Corbyn and leading an insurrection in the extant conservatives there's a good chance Farage is also a stealth remainer.

I disagree. Their ballots have been thoroughly corrupted and co-opted by party machine politics, and you cannot expect boot-licking establishment toadies to change their spots. And Farage can't pull a Trump in a parliamentary system.

The only way for Farage to force the Tories to take the will of the people into account is by threatening to take their positions. He is doing the right thing.

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