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Wednesday, September 11, 2019

A test of clout

Few races are as convoluted as the one in North Carolina’s Ninth Congressional District, which is — 10 months after Election Day 2018 — the last vote of the midterm elections. Experts see the race between State Senator Dan Bishop, a Republican, and the entrepreneur Dan McCready, a Democrat, as a test of President Trump’s clout in suburban areas.

50.7% 96,081 Dan Bishop (R) 
48.7% 92,144 Dan McCready (D)

It would appear President Trump's clout in suburban areas remains strong. A month ago, according to the polls, Bishop was 17 points down. An eighteen-point turnaround in response to Trump's campaigning is impressive.

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50 Comments:

Blogger wahr01 September 11, 2019 5:46 AM  

Are we sure that's the final count?

On election day 2018 the GOP had some 30 more seats than they did after 40 days of "finding" new ballots.

Blogger Brett baker September 11, 2019 5:49 AM  

Too many eyes. This is considered a Republican area, so they can't do their usual tricks. Especially since they accused the Republicans of acting like Democrats.

Blogger wahr01 September 11, 2019 6:10 AM  

Polling is becoming increasingly inaccurate because we increasingly lack a common communication infrastructure.

In the old days you could use land-lines or mail.
Now even mobile service is going extinct in favor of various free voip platforms among millennials and zoomers. The "phone number" is vestigial at best and the domain of telemarketers almost exclusively.

Snail mail has been extinct for some 15 years now.

Online polls are subject to botting and raiding.

"social media" is fragmented and unrepresentative because anyone remotely libertarian steers clear.

I don't envy those trying to get an accurate pulse of what's going on.

Blogger JovianStorm September 11, 2019 6:14 AM  

There is a massive weight of silent water under the very thin and annoying layer of Liberal oil. You see the powerful swells from time to time (like here), but it resides and lies dormant again.

If it could only be awakened...

Blogger Silent Draco September 11, 2019 6:27 AM  

JovianStorm, a saber makes a lot of noise when rattled, but very little noise when drawn. Two bellwethers just quietly rang the wrong way for the left. 2020 will get interesting in many ways.

Blogger Doktor Jeep September 11, 2019 7:13 AM  

Provided the election is honest

Blogger ZhukovG September 11, 2019 7:34 AM  

The year 2020 is definitely going to be 'Interesting Times'.

From that point, no matter who wins, the plunge towards the dissolution of the American Union will likely begin in earnest.

Ad Victoriam, Deo Vindice, Ave Caesar Trump!

Blogger Gettimothy September 11, 2019 7:35 AM  

The Coattails! They're Yuge!

Blogger Mr.MantraMan September 11, 2019 7:42 AM  

If only Trump and the Shitlord army can troll the Left into fits of uncontrollable rage, I mean burn Portland down to the ground rage. The ConClown coalition can try and protect the Left with its "The conservative case for . . ." or "Trump's demeanor" shtick but it seems that crap has no pull left.

This is why I expect Col. Kurt will have his twitter acct banned because he simply says ain't gonna do what you tell me, and nothing pisses off an effeminate authoritarian more.

Blogger Didas Kalos September 11, 2019 7:52 AM  

Amazing! Simply Amazing! A baby killer almost wins congresssional seat in civilized North Carolina. 96,000 people have no problem killing the unborn.

Blogger JACIII September 11, 2019 8:18 AM  

Funny how the (r) always JUST manages to pull out the win at the end. Almost like there's a pattern or something.

Blogger rumpole5 September 11, 2019 8:20 AM  

I really can't see why any otherwise sensible white person (or black person, for that matter) would vote for a Democrat candidate. They are vile, disingenuous, duplicitous, and corrupt. Every Jack man and Jill woman of them.

Blogger JACIII September 11, 2019 8:20 AM  

wahr01 wrote:Polling is becoming increasingly inaccurate because we increasingly lack a common communication infrastructure.


I don't envy those trying to get an accurate pulse of what's going on.



wahr01: Born 9/10/2019

Blogger Richard Holmes September 11, 2019 8:23 AM  

When it comes to polls these days, I think they are only polling democrats. All the conservatives I know don't answer the polls when they call.

Blogger Brick Hardslab September 11, 2019 8:23 AM  

They tell themselves, "Republicans do it too".

Blogger steve brown September 11, 2019 8:30 AM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Solon September 11, 2019 8:54 AM  

Jack and Jill: terms for male and female weasels/ferrets.

Coincidence? I think not.

Blogger JACIII September 11, 2019 9:12 AM  

steve brown wrote:@11 JAClll Was is 4 or 5 seats in Southern California that after the Republican had the most votes on election night November 2018 that the Democrat won? Sounds like you watch lots and lots of CNN and MSNBC.

Sounds like you're too stupid to recognize a comment related to the purpose of polling.

Blogger Nikolai Collushnikov September 11, 2019 9:39 AM  

The Democrat candidate always has a substantial floor, the welfare vote, which can't be eliminated even if the candidate is a proven priest Moloch.

Blogger Crew September 11, 2019 9:49 AM  

Not only was it an 18 or 19 point turnaround, there are allegations that election officials tried to depress turnout among Republican voters:

North Carolina Republicans claim election officials in one county provided the wrong address for a voting precinct ahead of a hotly contested special congressional election.

But state election officials say voters were notified of the address change weeks ago.


Changing the voting location is a great way to depress turnout.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-latest-gop-claims-voter-confusion-in-special-election/ar-AAH5Juk?ocid=spartandhp

I hope that Republican candidates understand now that having Trump on your side is good for them!

Blogger Dr Caveman September 11, 2019 10:01 AM  

I haven't seen an honest poll in years. They are always heavily skewed to favor Democrats and demoralize the right

Blogger Crew September 11, 2019 10:20 AM  

Meanwhile, the #LyingMSM are spinning furiously!

GOP holds N Carolina House seat but shows frailty in suburbs

Blogger Skyler the Weird September 11, 2019 11:06 AM  

There were Democrat voters from surrounding districts trying to vote in the 9th too. If this hadn't been a special election they probably would have let them cast a provisional ballot.

Blogger kurt9 September 11, 2019 11:06 AM  

I saw from reading this that Dan McCready is described as an entrepreneur. So, I looked him up on the Wiki. It turns out he started a company to do rooftop solar installations. One point about this is that the money in solar comes from the government subsidies and solar would probably not exist without them.

I was in several solar deals about 10 years ago to bring the advanced solar technology (CIGS, conductive polymer, etc.) to Japan. What we found out is that technically as well as resource limitations, none of these technologies were viable. Worse, no one (and I mean literally no one) was working on solving the most critical technical hurtle to realize solar on a mass scale and that it the replacement of ITO as the material for the transparent upper electrode. There are both technical and economic reasons why the massive scale up of solar requires the replacement of ITO for this purpose. As far as I can tell, no one has yet to come up with an ITO replacement, even 10 years later. There are other technical issues that I will not get into here. But what I found most stunning was that the industry as a whole seemed to have no interest in solving these problems at all, despite the necessity to do so to make solar scaleable.

This is the reason why i am not impressed with solar, and by extension, renewable energy in general. No one is doing the real (technical) work necessary to actually make this stuff work cost effectively.

So, no, I would not describe Mr. McCready as a legitimate entrepreneur. I am happy to see the majority of the voters to see through this as well.

Blogger Skyler the Weird September 11, 2019 11:12 AM  

McGreedy would get GovCo money for his company and pay lobbyists to petition for more subsidies.

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother September 11, 2019 11:16 AM  

Solar and wind are utter scams.

Energy comes from the atom, hydrocarbon, and flowing H2O molecule.

Blogger Dirk Manly September 11, 2019 11:33 AM  

@23

"There were Democrat voters from surrounding districts trying to vote in the 9th too."

And not a single one of them will see a court room, let alone a day of jail time.

Blogger JACIII September 11, 2019 11:34 AM  

Crew wrote:Not only was it an 18 or 19 point turnaround, there are allegations that election officials tried to depress turnout among Republican voters:



It wasn't an 18 point turnaround. Pools are not taken to tell you facts. They are taken and published to produce a desired outcome. They are psyops.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd September 11, 2019 11:36 AM  

kurt9 wrote:Worse, no one (and I mean literally no one) was working on solving the most critical technical hurtle to realize solar on a mass scale and that it the replacement of ITO as the material for the transparent upper electrode.

No idea what ITO is, or why it should be replaced. Whatever you're talking about, technical problems with solar panels are trivial issues compared to the problems inherent in putting randomly unreliable sources like wind and solar on the grid.

A grid with solar and wind will always going to cost more than a grid without, unless you want the power to be no more reliable than the weather.

Blogger Crew September 11, 2019 11:38 AM  

@28: You don't understand rhetoric do you?

The claim that The God Emperor produced an 18/19 point turnaround is strong rhetoric that stokes SJWs fears and reduces them to tears!

Blogger JACIII September 11, 2019 11:40 AM  

Crew wrote:@28: You don't understand rhetoric do you?

The claim that The God Emperor produced an 18/19 point turnaround is strong rhetoric that stokes SJWs fears and reduces them to tears!


Apologies. I didn't realize this was twitter.

Blogger DonReynolds September 11, 2019 11:46 AM  

I am surprised that more was not made of McCready's employment as a "gunslinger" with McKinsey & Co. The "management consulting firm" is a bit like Blackwater, without the guns and CIA connections.....secretive, cultish, expensive, and arrogant.

Not quite Moonies, but they certainly carry around their own culture and the firm keeps leaving their fingerprints everywhere there is a public relations disaster. They try to create the image of being academics, but their methodologies remind me of late-night commercials for new products....flawed, biased, questionable, misleading, but somehow popular with housewives.

The winner of the election, Dan Bishop, was nailed to the floorboards by the media over a $500 contribution to help start Gab, several years ago. That gave the Leftist Liberal press a tarbrush to paint Bishop as a "white nationalist", anti-semite, meanie. He managed to piss off the LGBTQ crowd by doing the pushback state legislation that stopped the Charlotte City Council from playing the transgender bathroom game. (Of course, they found a Federal judge to declare the state law unconstitutional.) And finally, he has gotten crossways with the BlackLivesMatter radicals by saying they are racist, just like the racists they oppose. He has also complained about the Leftist Liberal media being biased in their coverage. In short, Bishop is a normal human being and should do a good job in Congress.

Blogger wahr01 September 11, 2019 11:55 AM  

A reminder to those who browse cerno's feeds as well that this district was re-drawn in 2017 by democrat judicial fiat.

This was the most favorable results the Democrats could muster from it.

Blogger Oswald September 11, 2019 12:05 PM  

Polls have proven to be very unreliable here lately. Assuming the pollsters are honest, and that may be a huge leap of faith, why would anyone indicate they are voting non-democratic to a pollster or anyone else, when the Democrats are pushing to embarrass, harass, threaten, and intimidate them.

The Democrats are always claiming the republicans are trying to suppress the vote, well what do they think their doing, if not doing voter suppression, when they confront people wearing maga hats and seek to publish the name of republican donors.

Blogger kurt9 September 11, 2019 12:25 PM  

Ominous Cowherd wrote:kurt9 wrote:Worse, no one (and I mean literally no one) was working on solving the most critical technical hurtle to realize solar on a mass scale and that it the replacement of ITO as the material for the transparent upper electrode.

No idea what ITO is, or why it should be replaced. Whatever you're talking about, technical problems with solar panels are trivial issues compared to the problems inherent in putting randomly unreliable sources like wind and solar on the grid.

A grid with solar and wind will always going to cost more than a grid without, unless you want the power to be no more reliable than the weather.


ITO is Indium Tin Oxide. One reason why it is unsuitable for scale up is that Indium is produced as a byproduct of Zinc refining and has serious supply constraints. The other reason is the application of ITO thin-film to the PV "stack" is that it requires a relatively high temperature, high vacuum process technique (sputtering) which is inherently expensive for large scale solar production. High vacuum process technology (like that used to make semiconductor chips and flat screen TV's) is an inherently expensive technology. I know there is no way to adapt ITO to roll to roll processing at ambient (atmospheric pressure) processing because one of my best friends spent 10 years of his life trying to develop precisely this technology and was not successful (If he was, he would be very wealthy today).

This is all aside from your very spot-on comment about the intermittency of wind and solar power.

Blogger kurt9 September 11, 2019 12:27 PM  

BTW, "entrepreneurs" who make their money off of subsidies and other facets of government policy, as opposed to pure free market opportunities, are traditionally known as grifters and carpetbaggers.

Blogger Crew September 11, 2019 12:32 PM  

The God Emperor sez:

Greg Murphy won big, 62% to 37%, in North Carolina 03, & the Fake News barely covered the race. The win was far bigger than anticipated - there was just nothing the Fakers could say to diminish or demean the scope of this victory. So we had TWO BIG VICTORIES tonight, Greg & Dan!

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1171651786622537728

Look at that margin!

Blogger kurt9 September 11, 2019 12:41 PM  

Yes, indeed! This election and the firing of Bolton has really made my day!

Blogger DonReynolds September 11, 2019 1:54 PM  

Crew wrote:The God Emperor sez:

Greg Murphy won big, 62% to 37%, in North Carolina 03, & the Fake News barely covered the race. The win was far bigger than anticipated - there was just nothing the Fakers could say to diminish or demean the scope of this victory. So we had TWO BIG VICTORIES tonight, Greg & Dan!

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1171651786622537728

Look at that margin!


Crew....the Greg Murphy win was indeed impressive in the Republican primary run-off. BOTH candidates in this election were Republican but there is still media grief because Murphy won over a FEMALE Republican candidate.... which automatically outranks all MALE Republican candidates, for some reason.

The Democrats may bother to groom a candidate for the upcoming special election to run against Greg Murphy in the Third Congressional District. It is a pretty conservative area...all of the North Carolina coast, down close to the vicinity of Wilmington.

Blogger Skyler the Weird September 11, 2019 2:02 PM  

Dirk it was funny that there was a long line of people at an African American church in the 12th district wanting to vote for McGreedy in the 9th who were turned away as that polling place was closed til November.

Blogger steve brown September 11, 2019 2:08 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger HouellebecqGurl September 11, 2019 4:13 PM  

North Carolina, civilized? In this our Current Year? Gotta say, that's news to me. In between the huge dark contingent and the red square contingent, I thought the Southern white contingent was only about 20%, at this point.
Huh.
All I can say is, worry about Georgia. No one in the mainstream right will talk about it, but we have SERIOUS issues here.
We are in the top 5 states for growth for the 17th year in a row and the county next to me is the 2nd fastest growing in the nation.
It is NOT good ol' white Southern boys expanding the state, but Northern blacks, border trash, H1B Asians, Indians, MENAs,Africans, and a decent sized influx of Hollywood shitlibs now filming in the state,full time.
IOW, this state is a real problem now,along with Florida,AZ, the Carolinas, and in the near future, Texas.
The GOP does nothing/says nothing.
Of course.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd September 11, 2019 6:33 PM  

@35, thanks for the info. It's probably worth reiterating that even if solar panels and windmills were free, they don't belong on a grid.

Blogger James Dixon September 11, 2019 6:42 PM  

> JAClll It is you that should make yourself crystal clear so folks here don't think you are an idiot, idiot.

He's been around here a long time. We already know he isn't an idiot. You, on the other hand, are close to settling the matter.

Blogger Dyspeptic September 11, 2019 6:42 PM  

"A month ago, according to the polls, Bishop was 17 points down"

But why believe the polls? Contrary to popular belief polling is not a science, it's a political dark art full of unscientific and very dubious assumptions disguised by a thin veneer of statistical hocus pocus. You know what they say - There are liars, damned liars and pollsters. All polling is propaganda which is why the Fake News Media Complex is heavily involved in the sordid business.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd September 11, 2019 7:10 PM  

Dyspeptic wrote:All polling is propaganda which is why the Fake News Media Complex is heavily involved in the sordid business.

Knowledge is power. If you had actual, solid knowledge of public preferences, why would you give it away?

Any poll that is released to the public has been cleverly designed to mold opinion, not to measure it. Any poll that has been cleverly designed to accurately measure public opinion will not be released, no matter how favorable it may be.

If you have solid evidence that your candidate is ahead, why not lie and say he's even further ahead?

Blogger wahr01 September 11, 2019 8:13 PM  

@46

The Art of War:
I'd rather release polling showing a slight but not hopeless deficit to motivate my supporters and lull opposition into a false sense of security.

I've been fuming lately watching this "oh Trump's got this in 2020" attitude among his supporters. Pride leadeth to a fall.

Blogger TontoBubbaGoldstein September 11, 2019 10:28 PM  

Ah ain't noways tarred (of winning)!

Blogger Ominous Cowherd September 12, 2019 12:09 PM  

wahr01 wrote:The Art of War:

I'd rather release polling showing a slight but not hopeless deficit to motivate my supporters and lull opposition into a false sense of security.


Any way you slice it, you're telling a lie, even if it happens to align with the truth you paid to learn.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd September 12, 2019 12:09 PM  

wahr01 wrote:The Art of War:

I'd rather release polling showing a slight but not hopeless deficit to motivate my supporters and lull opposition into a false sense of security.


Any way you slice it, you're telling a lie, even if it happens to align with the truth you paid to learn.

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