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Saturday, March 07, 2020

The big shutdown

Definite le nuove misure nazionali di contenimento dell'emergenza. Nell'articolo 1 della bozza del nuovo decreto del governo compare il divieto di ingresso e di uscita dalla Lombardia e da altre 11 province, e l'estensione delle zone controllate a Piemonte ed Emilia-Romagna. Nel dettaglio, le province diventate "zona rossa" sono le seguenti: Modena, Parma, Piacenza, Reggio Emilia, Rimini, Pesaro e Urbino, Venezia, Padova, Treviso, Asti e Alessandria. Tutte le nuove disposizioni sono valide da oggi marzo fino al 3 aprile.

No travel into or out of Lombardia and a number of other provinces until April third, which is a quarantine of 16 million people. Good thing we've got the wine cellar well-stocked through September, at the very least! Seems like a bit of an overreaction to me, but we'll see. In the meantime, I anticipate most Italians will consider this to be a grand holiday of sorts.

And no, I'm not particularly concerned despite the drastic measures being taken. The country with the largest known test sample, South Korea, is seeing a mortality rate of 0.6 percent, which is only four times more lethal than the average flu. And while the 4 percent death rate based on the official numbers in Italy looks bad, the fact is that most people who have been infected don't know they have it and have not been counted as an official case.

I strongly suspect something that we simply don't understand is taking place, and that we'll eventually be able to put the pieces of the puzzle together. In the meantime, get plenty of sleep, drink plenty of fluids, and take vitamins C and D.

Besides, it's still not a pandemic, right?

UPDATE: While the government has announced the quarantine of Lombardia as well as parts of the Veneto, Emilia Romagna, and Piemonte, they aren't shutting down the roads or the airports yet. They haven't even closed the borders with France or Switzerland at this point.

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122 Comments:

Blogger Lazarus March 07, 2020 9:18 PM  

I strongly suspect something that we simply don't understand is taking place,

Yes. From accounts it acts like common cold with benefits. Supposedly 2 strains. One for the general population as cover, and then a more aggressive strain delivered to targeted groups.

Just a speculation.....

So far not nearly akin to the Spanish Flu, but definitely has a better public relations team.

Blogger Kingly Gift March 07, 2020 9:27 PM  

It becomes a pandemic on July 16th.

Blogger Thad Tuiol March 07, 2020 9:29 PM  

God Bless you and your family, Vox. I hope this damn plague burns itself out soon. I wonder, will we ever learn the truth of how and why it started?

Blogger Kraemer March 07, 2020 9:38 PM  

Why July 16?

Blogger Gregory the Tall March 07, 2020 9:43 PM  

Does anybody have experience with putting raw onion slices on the table? Some sources say they somehow attract and absorb bacteria and viruses. On the other hand there are so many sources "debunking" it that I suspect they might help. They certainly help when you get stung by a wasp.

Blogger MC Duquesne March 07, 2020 9:43 PM  

The infected/death rate is .6%, that's the lower bound.
The recovered/death rate is 25%, that's the upper bound.
Over time they will converge to the actual rate as the disease runs it's course in more people. The South Korean numbers diverge the so much from the Chinese numbers due to better testing, a younger outbreak, and less lying.

Blogger Jack Amok March 07, 2020 9:52 PM  

Here outside of Seattle, it managed to get into a nursing home. Now, these are people who aren't in good enough health to live on their own, so they're vulnerable to begin with, but...

So far, it's killed one out of every three residents it has infected. Maybe more, because they have 11 deaths that happened before they realized Corona-chan was in the house, so they are going back to look at those deaths.

This isn't business as usual.

Blogger Lazarus March 07, 2020 9:52 PM  

Kraemer wrote:Why July 16?

I am guessing the world bank pandemic bonds mature on the 15th

(research done) Ha! Bingo:

The bond will mature on July 15, although it can be extended by one year.

https://www.euromoney.com/article/b1klyqsykl0d0m/when-will-coronavirus-covid19-trigger-the-world-bank39s-pandemic-bond


Blogger tuberman March 07, 2020 9:57 PM  

" The country with the largest known test sample, South Korea, is seeing a mortality rate of 0.6 percent,..." 40,000 tested.

I too suspect something going on with this Corona Virus outbreak.

Some of the past outbreaks in the last two decades had a much higher death rate then ordinary flu, such as SARS, MERS, Swine Flu, Eboa, and Zika.

Plus, the good news is Corona may be speeding up the Globalist's decline.

Also, in spite of my arguments, all of you should take care. I personally will keep going places like workouts, etc, but that's my risk.

I do have plenty of lipo vitamin C, vit D, zinc, and echinacea for immune boost.

Blogger ScottC March 07, 2020 9:58 PM  

Vox, how much do you think China's polluted air contributed to their death rate?

Blogger Johnny March 07, 2020 9:58 PM  

The stuff kills by causing pneumonia, which in turn requires intensive care for the more sick people. Guessing about it, the body count lacking good quality medical treatment is probably something like 2% of reported cases. That is what will happen if it spreads rapidly. Apparently the Italians are avoiding that.

I don't believe it is deliberate, but the stuff seems optimized to cause economic disruption. Too lethal to ignore and a long latency period prior to showing symptoms. Only a severe quarantine period will shut it down. Otherwise yeah, it kills mainly old people and the infirm. Woe be to those who have lung issues.

Blogger Azimus March 07, 2020 10:14 PM  

I guess I appreciate that the governments are taking it seriously. Better to be cautious with it I guess. Is Northern Italy "young" for Europe, or old? It seems devastating to the old but something like a strong cold to the young.

Probably very, very good practice for a more seriois outbreak.

Blogger Jeroth March 07, 2020 10:18 PM  

I have vague suspicions that the virus is cover for something else. I just hope it's the globalists who are being driven into a corner and not the other way around.

Blogger Rough Carrigan March 07, 2020 10:50 PM  

I don't know what the official standards are but a 0.6% death rate doesn't fit my preconceptions of a pandemic.

Blogger Lazarus March 07, 2020 10:55 PM  

ScottC wrote:Vox, how much do you think China's polluted air contributed to their death rate?

A draft of a 2007 combined World Bank and SEPA report stated that up to 760,000 people died prematurely each year in China because of air and water pollution. High levels of air pollution in China's cities caused to 350,000–400,000 premature deaths. Another 300,000 died because of indoor air of poor quality.

Meanwhile, between 8&9 million people die per year in China total.

Blogger weka March 07, 2020 11:15 PM  

It is a pandemic. It is in the wild in more than two regions of the world. It's mild for most, but ARDS requires significant resources to survive.
The WHO however is under pressure not to call it such.

Blogger Ska_Boss March 07, 2020 11:22 PM  

Wouldn't be a proper SDL without a fully overstocked wine cellar.

Blogger kurt9 March 07, 2020 11:24 PM  

Compared to all of whinging I'm seeing on the 'net, Vox here seems to be very level-headed about this.

Blogger Ingot9455 March 07, 2020 11:24 PM  

0.6% death rate in people who occasionally wash their hands and clean their bathrooms.

Blogger Brick Hardslab March 07, 2020 11:26 PM  

'With benefits'? I've been happily married for almost forty years. Maybe Corona-Chan will spice things up.

Blogger Facetious Bear March 07, 2020 11:42 PM  

There's a video on bitchute (that was trending #3 until it was scrubbed) that makes a fairly convincing connection between the Coronavirus and 5G. The 60GHz millimeter waves affect the haemoglobin and the body's ability absorb oxygen, which oxygen deprivation then causes the cold-like symptoms, and more easily kills the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. Wuhan was the big test city for the 5G rollout.
Obviously, none of us can know for sure, but I've heard an electrical engineer independently verify the concern with the 60GHz frequency. Perhaps the coronavirus is a way to distract from the 5G rollout...

Blogger SacrificialLamb March 07, 2020 11:49 PM  

I've been sick as a dog all week, and have been reading about the benefits of Vitamin C.....after watching a video this week about a man being quarantined for testing positive for the Coronavirus. I think the guy's name is Carl Goldman, and he was being interviewed by the mainstream media a lot. Someone in the comment section of the video I watched, talked about how she's been taking something like 4 grams (4,000 milligrams) of Vitamin C for 40 years....and never gets sick. As a response to this, I did some research on Vitamin C. I just started mega-dosing on Vitamin C for the past 48 hours (although I'm probably still not taking nearly enough), and just received a book yesterday called "Chris Beat Cancer", by Chris Wark. I've only read a few pages, but it looks interesting. On Wark's blog, he brings up that the healthier you are, the lower your bowel tolerance is to high levels of Vitamin C. So if you're sick, you take much more Vitamin C than if you're well. I only took 10 grams of Vitamin C today, which is not nearly enough. His blog:

www.chrisbeatcancer.com/high-dose-vitamin-c-protocol-for-cancer/

There's also a doctor named Dr Suzanne Humphries, who discusses natural versus synthetic Vitamin C.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=636&v=QMULeO4sR3I&feature=emb_title

Incidentally, Vox....it was your article entitled, "I could use a week off", that made me think more seriously about the Coronavirus. Maybe I was being a little paranoid about being sick (now, of all times), but I decided to take no unnecessary chances. That's why I bought Wark's book, consumed a lot more Vitamin C than usual, and took my own little vacation from the gym. Thankfully, I'm recovering.

God bless you and your family, Vox....and watch your family's health carefully. We always take our health for granted, until the day we need it the most.

Blogger Facetious Bear March 07, 2020 11:49 PM  

My best educated guess right now is that the coronavirus is actually just the effects of the 60GHz millimeter-wave 5G rollout.

Blogger KPKinSunnyPhiladelphia March 07, 2020 11:52 PM  

VD wrote:
Besides, it's still not a pandemic, right?

Of course, it's a pandemic. Jock itch can be a pandemic. Being a pandemic is irrelevant. It's how BAD the specific disease really is.

And this one? Maybe not so much.

So the question for our esteemed blog proprietor is...

Barolo? Brunello? Super Tuscan?

I like my Aldo Coterno, but I'd quaff down a Banfi Brunello if you put it in front of me.

Suitably decanted of course.

Hey, all you GenXers out there. My social security check is going to replenish my cellar when the time comes.

You might wish this baby boomer dead, but um um...the wine will be exquisite!!

Blogger MNW March 07, 2020 11:55 PM  

I don't know what to believe about this. The reaction seems way out of proportion to what has be reported.

Everything about it is very peculiar.

My cynical side ha sma thinking this is a way to take the economy in an election year. My rational mind tells me that is nonsense.


Blogger Emmanuel March 08, 2020 12:23 AM  

"My cynical side ha sma thinking this is a way to take the economy in an election year. My rational mind tells me that is nonsense."

Your rational mind is speaking nonsense, especially in light of the irrefutable evidence of every single previous modern 'outbreak' ending up being a big nothing burger after the panic they were supposed to induce runs its course in the end that people forget about literally months later. You know what the Deep State is capable of. You know they cause events to achieve their aims, like starting wars to cover up the fact that recessions and other economic downturns in their economic system aren't bugs but are features. They are a desperate, cornered animal, and they'll do whatever it takes and call in whatever agents and favors they have to stop Mr. President from winning again, and if that means starting a fake pandemic to crash the global economy to remove the biggest, winning issue Mr. President has that even they cannot deny, that's exactly what they'll do. All this business about Italy overreacting is just further evidence that their agents in Italy and the EU at large are still very much active and in very key government positions. I mean, gee, who would have thought that a country with a leftist government in power would be very amendable to the goals of the NWO?

Blogger Zeroh Tollrants March 08, 2020 12:34 AM  

According to news accounts I've seen, some people that were at the latest AIPAC *AND* CPAC goat rodeos, were POZ'd up with Corona.
This has filled me with unlimited joy.

Blogger Daniel March 08, 2020 12:48 AM  

Dude, all a pandemic is is an epidemic in 2 countries. Death has nothing to do with it.

Blogger Doktor Jeep March 08, 2020 1:19 AM  

Corona has some kind of metaphysical or spiritual thing going on with it.

That it spares children says a lot for this. No adult is without sin. Or worse, without doing something to stop sin. This civilization needs to be judged before it can be saved.

Blogger Ingot9455 March 08, 2020 1:32 AM  

While everyone is indeed panicking a little too much, let's also get real.
People in China were dying in specifically scary ways.
Not understood ways, like car accidents.
Not statistical ways, where we could put a number to it and define it. We knew we were being lied to by China.
And our usual nostrums that we would imagine China to have - antibiotics for the carrier bacterial pneumonia that usually gets you - clearly failed or were inadequate to this task.

These are the kinds of things which create unreasonable fear. If we understood what was going on, it would be a statistic. Statistics are boring. This is horror.

Blogger Jack Amok March 08, 2020 1:36 AM  

I don't know what to believe about this. The reaction seems way out of proportion to what has be reported.

Does it? Well, now, what exactly is the reaction? Don't let people in from China until the infection has died down? Don't send people off to sit mindlessly in cubicles for 8 hours a day until the risk of infection subsides? Consider fixing your own lunch instead of buying it from the tattooed guy with more metal sticking out of his face than a WWII shrapnel victim? Chill out for a couple of weeks to see if it's really that bad?

Most of the "reaction" looks to me like people opting out of several dysfunctional aspects of modern society. Pretending to work so they can pretend to pay you fine I suppose, until you have to run an unknown risk of plague as part of your charade.

Blogger Clint Johnson March 08, 2020 4:08 AM  

They are either waiting for the plague bonds to mature and save the rich "investors" money, or they are waiting for Africa to have a full breakout so they can transfer the money from the developed world to the undeveloped continent.
If the WHO declare it a pandemic shortly after the numbers spike in Africa, you know it is the latter.

Blogger Arthur Isaac March 08, 2020 4:17 AM  

It's like the old saw: a recession is when my neighbor loses their job a depression is when I do. It's all fun and games until a friend or family member is face down in the cauliflower because their central nervous system shut down mid-stride.

Blogger Arthur Isaac March 08, 2020 4:18 AM  

Hey facetious, how much 5G in Iran? Or is it getting bombarded by HAARP radiation?

Blogger Basta Con La Droga March 08, 2020 4:47 AM  

Truth is, Vox, they won again.

Blogger Rek. March 08, 2020 4:57 AM  

Linus Pauling wrote a book on the subject. He is the one who introduced the concept of megadosing vit c to the general population.

Blogger Matrick March 08, 2020 5:09 AM  

Wouldn't Trump simply be able to point to how the economy was good before the virus and that he is best placed to fix it once the threat is over?

I'd be more inclined to believe that the virus is intended to wipe out a significant proportion of Trump's older voters.

Regarding 5G: how does that explain the cases outside of the area of 5G? The cruise ships for a start.

Blogger D E K March 08, 2020 5:32 AM  

China's communist party, Iran's regime and Trump's economy are all a victim of Corona. If this thing is well orchestrated, than I am in awe of the capabilities of the enemy.

Blogger Gregory the Tall March 08, 2020 5:50 AM  

Zinc is also a very important if you want to prevent pneumonia. If you take a lot of Zinc (in one successful study they gave the patients 75 mg per day), however, I read that after a while the copper level goes down, so apparently it would be good to have a copper supplement in the house as well.

Blogger Silent Draco March 08, 2020 5:50 AM  

Facetious Bear, 60 GHz is a very short- range radar band, showing as a small 'dip' at an oxygen and water absorption band. Possible effect on dipole action and binding.

Blogger BriarRabbit March 08, 2020 7:04 AM  

5G? After a biology major AMD years of studying on it, I'm still not certain of the theory linking virus and bacteria as the cause of most of these illnesses. Seems to me like it is more a mass detox.

Who knows. A year ago I thought the earth was a round, spinning ball. Three years ago I was an atheist. Twenty-four years ago I thought joining the Army was doing a good for my country.

Blogger bramley says "Enoch was right" March 08, 2020 7:20 AM  

@21 @23

When 5G causes the air to boil away, colour me convinced. Until then, let's enjoy the micrometer-wave sunlight and not get too caught up in the web-gabble.

Blogger urthshu March 08, 2020 7:54 AM  

Pandemic fund bonds reach maturity. There's up to 4 strains, BTW.

Blogger God Emperor Memes March 08, 2020 8:09 AM  

Meanwhile on Reddit, suspicions abound that the Italian quarantine was engineered by the VFM, so Vox Day could get on with writing his latest novel without interruption.

Blogger Dude463 March 08, 2020 8:18 AM  

I'm currently living in South Korea. As of saturday a whopping 90,6 person of cases are focused on the city of Daegu and a neighboring province. Just over 100 cases in Seoul in total. It's not spreading at all in the entire country.

Strange fact: According to news reports, almost two thirds of infected people are members of the Shincheonji sect, which has roughly a quarter million members in Korea. That's the part I find suspicious.

Blogger Scuzzaman March 08, 2020 8:31 AM  

It is interesting how these technology conversations resemble the theological conversations more and more closely as the discussion continues.

Is this some kind of corollary to Godwin's Law?



Blogger Johnny March 08, 2020 8:50 AM  

The easy explanation for Corona Virus is that it was develped as part of a germ warfare program in China, and probably with genetic material stolen from either Canada or the US.

There is some reason to believe that Orientals are more vulnerable to the disease then are other races. It has to do with the detail characteristics of the lung tissue. Blacks may be more immune to the stuff than whites. It looks like the Chinese produced a weapon that primarily kills Chinese, and then stupidly let it spread. Talk about bad, useless, stupid government...

Along with the ethnic consideration the virus is harder on people with lung issues. Because of pollution lots of Chinese have low level lung problems, and Chinese men very commonly smoke. In summary, a germ warfare weapon that efficiently targets your own urban male population. Given the disruption to China there is no way this is deliberate. Than again it may relieve them of some of the sexual imbalance brought on by selectivity choosing male babies.

Blogger Zander Stander March 08, 2020 9:04 AM  

Still waiting for Mexico, which should lead to closing of the border. Call yourself a pandemic? Convince me.

Blogger Damelon Brinn March 08, 2020 9:14 AM  

Well, now, what exactly is the reaction?

I suppose it might seem overwrought if you watch a lot of TV news. I don't, so the reaction I've seen is....people talking about it sometimes. At work, the managers had a meeting to talk about how they need to have lists of essential personnel for disasters, things like who can work from home, who could take a paid leave without grinding things to a halt. But they realized that would be useful in the case of other disasters like winter storms too, so it's not a panic thing, just good preparation.

Blogger Quicksilver March 08, 2020 9:48 AM  

How difficult is it in there to get basic food and essentials? Do you expect the supply chain into supermarkets to be affected by the quarantine?

Blogger RedJack March 08, 2020 9:55 AM  

Exposed a bunch of special Olympics people in Nebraska. I have elderly relatives there. Last call had them just hanging out on the farm, but it is getting interesting

Blogger Punzdeleon March 08, 2020 10:05 AM  

Most S. Korean cases have not run their course. I believe the correct way to calculate mortality is to add the number of deaths to the number of recovered to give the number of completed cases. Divide the sum into the number of deaths and multiply by 100. Any statisticians out there willing to weigh in on this? 

Blogger Dude463 March 08, 2020 10:25 AM  

@Quicksilver If that question was directed at me: No difficulties whatsoever in Seoul. And, I don't expect it. Without having much intel from the city of Daegu, it's apparently quite a Ghost Town right now. People rarely go out. But the hardest blow to the supply chains is the delay of some new Samsung smartphone :-). Nobody cares.

Blogger SJ March 08, 2020 10:29 AM  

The owner of one of the businesses I regularly do contract work for came out to ask me how my business has been effected. He was convinced my business would be down. It isn't. He was convinced his business was not only going to slow down but already was as he sells a lot of products imported from China and Taiwan. He was talking about having to lay off some employees. Then he told me he doesn't understand how his business hasn't slowed down yet.

Another company I work with told me they can't get a certain part to build their product because it comes from Taiwan.

A common cold virus that occasionally kills a few old people? Along with a ton of obviously fake pictures of model cities pretending to be Wuhan? And some utterly ridiculous videos of guys trying to use giant grabby claws to grab people? It's all just stupid so far. But if it will start the day of the pillow I'm all for it. Let's get some coronachan over here plz

Blogger Roman Daoist March 08, 2020 10:36 AM  

It affects people proportionally to their age. Kids who get infected show little to no effect while oldies tend more to need hospital care and you know, die. The Japanese basically blamed children for being the spreaders.

-

Supply chain issues are going to be interesting. Already the TV (Australian) is showing manufacturers/ assemblers dependant on Chinese imports saying they are just not getting parts any more.

The longer it goes on the more that people will find it economical to build local again. Could become a thing. China could slightly stop being the world's factory. Then I suppose they'll need a war.

-

That and how 'diversity is our strength' is taking a royal beating. One of the few confirmed cases here in Brisbane is a Chinese student studying at the local uni. Some 11000 Chinese were found to have avoided the flight ban by travelling through Thailand. Not a great way to make friends..

Then there's that video of a fat Persian? mum and her fat adult daughter fighting with a fat African women over toilet paper in the supermarket - in Sydney I think. Bulk-buying toilet paper has become a thing here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DQv5PWMzI-w

Funniest comment was "There's something not white about this".

How long before we 'go Greek' on foreigners and start pushing them away with barge poles?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8BdEHtBWp4

Blogger Brett baker March 08, 2020 10:45 AM  

Some of us prefer whiskey, you know!

Blogger Johnny March 08, 2020 11:06 AM  

Punzdeleon wrote:Most S. Korean cases have not run their course. I believe the correct way to calculate mortality is to add the number of deaths to the number of recovered to give the number of completed cases. Divide the sum into the number of deaths and multiply by 100. Any statisticians out there willing to weigh in on this? 

You are correct, but the calculation you want takes time. The thing is, people usually die faster than they recover. Early on the death rate will look higher than it actually is.

And there is going to be under reporting of sick people. Don's see a doctor, don't get in the data base. That will also make the body count look higher.

Plus Chinese appear to be more vulnerable than other people.

Because of the above considerations, the early body count of this disease looked really bad.

The Corona Virus appears to be too dangerous to ignore, and too contagious to stop. But the actual damage to society by the body count won't be that bad. Economic disruption could get to be a big deal.

Blogger P Glenrothes March 08, 2020 11:11 AM  

MotoGP international motorcycle races at Qatar, Thailand and Texas have been canceled or postponed due to the virus. Here in Calif. there are many empty shelves in grocery stores. Some shoppers are wearing face masks.

Blogger Damelon Brinn March 08, 2020 11:13 AM  

Than again it may relieve [China] of some of the sexual imbalance brought on by selectivity choosing male babies.

Right. Tyrants always fear their own people more than foreigners. That glut of young men could be turned into an army, but also a revolution. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they were working on a bug that would thin their own population, just in case.

Just as I wouldn't be surprised if there's a US-funded lab somewhere trying to design a bug that attacks Anglo or Saxon genes while giving Ashkenazi genes an immunity.

Blogger Edgar Abbey March 08, 2020 11:13 AM  

Hey Vox, I saw the article on Breitbart this morning saying that Italy had imposed the quarantine on 16 million people and thought about you and your family. Here in the US, it still just seems like a thing that's happening on the news and not really affecting us yet. But I just got a message from a friend who told me a mutual friend had been at a business meeting out-of-state with several of his co-workers, who were later diagnosed with coronavirus. Our mutual friend traveled home and then came down with flu-like symptoms. The doctor tested him for the flu and ruled it out, but said due to the shortage of coronavirus tests and the fact that he is not in an at-risk group, they would not be testing him. His employer has told him to stay at home until further notice, and in fact, the entire facility at which he works has been closed down to all but essential personnel. The friend who told me this is in the middle of an important project and has been told he's considered essential and half-jokingly told me he feels like he's going to become infected any day now.

Blogger Sicilian Switchblade March 08, 2020 11:28 AM  

For all you naysayers out there. Better stock up on ammo, clean water, non perishables etc. We've got to brace ourselves for Y2K LEVEL chaos and disruptions!

Blogger bodenlose Schweinerei March 08, 2020 11:30 AM  

I strongly suspect something that we simply don't understand is taking place

When is this ever not true?

Blogger Jack (LJCSOGHMOMAS) March 08, 2020 11:30 AM  

One of the big issues in Wuhan is the fact that most buildings there have no heat. China has a rather arbitrary line on its map, and those to the north get heat, while those to the south do not. Wuhan is below the line. In addition to the terrible air quality there, and the high prevalence of smoking among men, there is also the inability to convalesce in a heated environment. I haven't seen that talked about much. If you look at photos of patients in the makeshift hospitals, they're all wearing coats and under blankets. Many parts of China have a kind of damp cold because of the higher humidity, and it really sinks into your bones, especially if you can't warm up in a heated building. It's normal there for people to be in their living rooms wrapped up in winter gear like the little brother in A Christmas Story. This has to be contributing to the mortality rate there.

I'm told that parts of Italy have a similar damp cold. If you're used to the dry cold of places like the midwest, you think forty degrees is nothing. But in more humid parts of the world, it can feel worse than freezing, especially if you can't warm up anywhere.

Currently reading: The Plague by Camus. Stay safe and God bless, everyone.

Blogger tuberman March 08, 2020 11:32 AM  

UPDATE: While the government has announced the quarantine of Lombardia as well as parts of the Veneto, Emilia Romagna, and Piemonte, they aren't shutting down the roads or the airports yet. They haven't even closed the borders with France or Switzerland at this point."

A shutdown that isn't really a shutdown? Should be interesting to see whether they do shut those areas down in the next few days.

Blogger Solon March 08, 2020 11:32 AM  

@52
Not a statistician, but yes, the fatality rate that most media outlets are using is total cases/total deaths, which is a useless number, since the disease takes a while to get going.

The correct number to use is (total recovered + total deaths/total deaths) X 100. This is the number that accounts for complete run of the disease, the result being death or recovery.

We wont have the overall Case Fatality Rate until the epidemic has passed, assuming it doesnt become endemic like the regular flu. That would be the nightmare scenario. Even at 2% mortality, that is anywhere from 10x to 40x the mortality of the flu.

Blogger Arthur Isaac March 08, 2020 11:47 AM  

God had to do something eventually. I'm surprised He let it go on as long as He did. How much blood was crying out?

Blogger Ominous Cowherd March 08, 2020 11:48 AM  

Punzdeleon wrote:I believe the correct way to calculate mortality is to add the number of deaths to the number of recovered to give the number of completed cases.

I believe that is correct.

The number of infected is growing exponentially. The number infected a couple of months ago was in the hundreds, the number infected a couple of weeks ago was in the tens of thousands. It takes weeks or months to go from infection to resolution of an individual's case.

If we take deaths as our numerator and current cases as our denominator, we get a bogus result, because the deaths today are from among the few who were infected in the past. Those few who were infected in the past are the correct denominator, but we don't know that number, because nobody was testing back then. Here in the US, nobody is testing yet. Can't find what you refuse to see.

As you say, a reasonable estimator of the eventual death rate is to use deaths as the numerator, and total resolved cases - recovered plus died - as the denominator. Since medical care standards are NOT going to rise as hospital corridors fill with cots and the majority of the staff get sick, that reasonable estimator is probably biased downward.

Blogger God Emperor Memes March 08, 2020 12:09 PM  

I know one of the people in that supermarket video. That suburb (Chullora) is a dumping ground for third world trash.

Blogger JovianStorm March 08, 2020 12:10 PM  

Megadosing antioxidants isn't a good idea. They'll find something to reduce if nothing is readily available and reducing your DNA isn't an offlimits activity.

Excessive antioxidants of any kind damage cells. ROS is an important second messenger signaling system in humans and you don't know what will happen if you reduce or affect it.

Blogger James Dixon March 08, 2020 12:21 PM  

> Plus, the good news is Corona may be speeding up the Globalist's decline.

Infections announced at both CPAC and AIPAC. And some Congress critter was apparently palling around with some Iranians who had it. So yeah.

> My cynical side ha sma thinking this is a way to take the economy in an election year. My rational mind tells me that is nonsense.

You should listen to your cynical side more often.

Blogger kurt9 March 08, 2020 12:21 PM  

Probably a good idea. Although I'm not sure shutting down fitness gyms is a good idea. It is well-established over the past few decades that resistive weight training (i.e. bodybuilding) is not necessary for overall physiological well-being (prevents sarcopenia and bone loss). But that it increases one's immune system. Anything that increases host immunity should encouraged to combat COVID-19.

Blogger kurt9 March 08, 2020 12:26 PM  

I'm using Zinc, echinacea/astragalus, and Vitamin A as prophylactic against COVID-19. Given how bureaucracy bungled this, at least in the U.S. (Italy seems to be handling it well), I think one long term social effect resulting from COVID-19 will be a massive increase in the interest and pursuit of DIY medicine and DIY bio-engineering.

Blogger The Depolrable Podunk Ken Ramsey March 08, 2020 12:38 PM  

Keep in mind that these mortality rate numbers, if you can get a good fix on them, are subject to change. These things do mutate and present in waves. In the case of the Spanish Flu the first wave presented as a bad case of the flu at first, much like Corona Chan so far. The first wave started to abate and everybody thought they had it licked. Then it mutated into a much deadlier form and came roaring back. That second wave was the killer. The second wave abated, too, then the virus mutated again and came back for a third wave. Thankfully the third wave was like the first wave with a lower mortality rate.

It's a moving target.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd March 08, 2020 12:44 PM  

Here is somebody suggesting that selenium is a good idea to beat ebola, and maybe corona.

Blogger pyrrhus March 08, 2020 1:06 PM  

It appears that this virus was originally created at UNC in 1915 by a team including Dr. Shi, Chinese, with money from both the US and Chinese governments...https://capitalisteric.wordpress.com/2020/03/08/coronavirus-blunt-truth/

Blogger YIH March 08, 2020 1:15 PM  

From https://westernrifleshooters.wordpress.com/:

The head of the Lombardy's intensive care crisis unit says the health system is on the brink of collapse, intensive care being set up in hallways. By March 26 they predict ~18,000 #Covid19 cases in Lombardy, of which ~3,000 will need intensive care.
Good luck Vox!

Blogger braq March 08, 2020 1:27 PM  

When the Spanish Flu first appeared in early 1918 it too was dismissed as a nothingburger. Then when October rolled around people started dropping like flies as the virus had had time to become truly well-distributed. The mortality rate was ultimately about 2% in the US (~25 million Americans got it, ~500K died) and many other countries. Right now we're in the calm before the storm.

Comparisons to alleged deaths from ordinary flu are invalid as these are completely fabricated by the CDC/WHO - the numbers are fabricated by mathematical models rather than testing of supposed victims. Ask yourself if you know anyone who knows anyone who has died of the flu. Anyone?

Whether coronachan proves to be a deadly plague or not, the pretext has already been announced for global economic collapse, and the rats are fleeing the ship as panic gradually pervades the general population.

Blogger Balkan Yankee March 08, 2020 1:27 PM  

@22: Fair warning. Mega doses of Vitamin C will give you the shitz and possibly nausea, vomiting, and headaches. Upper limit for adults is generally said to be 2,000 mg per day.

I mix a quarter teaspoon of 100 percent pure vitamin C crystals (about 1,200 mg) into a fruit and vegetable juice concoction every morning before I head out.

I also mix about 6 drops of oregano oil along with electrolytes in water early in the a.m., well before breakfast. Oregano oil is germicidal and also tastes nasty. But it works for me. I use Mykind Organics.

Anytime I feel run down during the day, I pop zinc. Within 10 minutes I can feel the difference.

There are other supplements that I take, but that's the heart of my regimen aimed at boosting my immune system. That and a good night's sleep.

Blogger furor kek tonicus ( The Surprised Pig hadn't had any idea he tasted this good ) March 08, 2020 1:47 PM  

14. Rough Carrigan March 07, 2020 10:50 PM
I don't know what the official standards are but a 0.6% death rate doesn't fit my preconceptions of a pandemic.



lethality doesn't have anything to do with the WHO definition of "pandemic".

"The phases are defined by the spread of the disease; virulence and mortality are not mentioned in the current WHO definition, although these factors have previously been included."

which makes sense, as pan- is Greek for "all" and -demos is Greek for "people".

and the disease has spread all around the globe at this point. we've even had a confirmed case in Indiana now.


as an aside, i double checked on the Chinese manufacturing situation this weekend.

Zimmer-Biomet has three Chinese plants, none in Wuhan. production is almost entirely back on line. this is as of March 6.

so unless Corona-chan changes to become far more lethal than the initial wave ( a la Spanish Flu ), you should prepare to eventually have to enjoy it's touch. but if you're healthy, it's probably not going to amount to much more than a serious case of the flu.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan March 08, 2020 2:07 PM  

I just read an interesting tweet someone reposted to Gab and it was about someone who got out of Wuhan, quarantined in Bejing, tested many times then released. That person was claiming that many who recovered had lost a serious amount of lung function. Just another data point in a confusing situation some might find of interest.

Blogger Scuzzaman March 08, 2020 2:09 PM  

OT: Shariah party wins two seats in Belgium. Plans on setting up Muslim apartheid in Belgium.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=9&v=h1T_15IDAg8

Blogger Silent Draco March 08, 2020 3:42 PM  

Many of the mineral supplements discussed up thread are also found in read meat, which is also rich in iron. Wonder if we're seeing the second stage effect? First, scare people of red meat as evil; second scare them off white meat or poultry because that's almost as evil; third, soybean with low amounts of needed amino acids and minerals.

Normal diet, exercise, rest, and fluids - simple prescription. Add some red wine, and good to go.

Blogger jkmack March 08, 2020 3:58 PM  

Are you sure? Any kenyans work there?

Blogger Salt March 08, 2020 3:59 PM  

Longtime Lurker wrote:Fair warning. Mega doses of Vitamin C will give you the shitz and possibly nausea, vomiting, and headaches. Upper limit for adults is generally said to be 2,000 mg per day.

Another source of info -

"A healthy person can take anywhere from 4-15 grams (4,000-15,000 mg) of vitamin C in a 24 hour period without getting the runs, but a sick person can tolerate as much as 10-20 times more. I’m talking even as much as 100-200 grams per day by mouth.

Have you ever taken vitamin C when you had a cold and it didn’t help? This is probably because you didn’t take near enough."

https://www.chrisbeatcancer.com/high-dose-vitamin-c-protocol-for-cancer/

Blogger The Cooler March 08, 2020 4:18 PM  

Vibrant Health makes a product called Green Vibrance y'all might check out. I am quite active and sweet potatoes are a cheat food for me, so there's that; but I have only been sick twice in the last 20 years and I'm certain this product is a big reason why.

Warning: Tastes like feet.

Blogger weka March 08, 2020 4:42 PM  

Cancelled conferences approved for today and I'm not the only one.

By only regret is that it was not the NZ Greens and Labour conferences. Though they will be at a commemorative service for Brendon Tarrant the Muslin victims are wisely avoiding.

Blogger weka March 08, 2020 4:45 PM  

No. Gammas have loved holy wars and virtue signalling for ever. See xemacs vs emacs 20.0

Blogger weka March 08, 2020 4:47 PM  

And if you can, get the hell out of Sydney. Diversity plus gimmedat plus vibrancy equals blood on the streets

Blogger Akuma March 08, 2020 5:26 PM  

Vitamins C,E,A,D,K are gonna be the most important for this virus. Vitamin C and E modulate each other in the brain when it comes to protecting against oxidative stress of an oncoming fever or edema. When one increases the other needs too be increased as well. Most importantly Vitamin E is a huge factor in the health of the lungs. Except its only the alpha-tocopherol version of the Vitamin E that helps with lung function. That means lots of Almonds, as they are super high in Vitamin E. Almonds are also a good source of Calcium.

A,D,K need to be eaten and increased together. When one of them goes up the others need too as well. So does calcium as Vitamin D can leach it from the bones if you'e not getting enough Calcium. To combat the virus get them from whole food sources. That means Sauerkraut (Vitamin K), Broccoli (Vitamin C and A), Almonds (Vitamin E and Calcium), Fortified Milk (Vitamin D and Calcium), and Carrots (Vitamin A) would be great staples to add on top of ones diet. Along with supplementing with D,C,E. No supplementation K or A as one can take way to much if they aren't careful.

Blogger Stilicho March 08, 2020 5:28 PM  

"on Reddit, suspicions abound that the Italian quarantine was engineered by the VFM, so Vox Day could get on with writing his latest novel without interruption."

Malwin was on vacation. Mistakes were made.

Blogger Rowan March 08, 2020 7:11 PM  

We’ve been put on notice that the health department may issue a mandatory closure of schools. Special training to work remote is being given. Closures could last three weeks or longer.

This could be an interesting pilot for nationwide online education.

Blogger DiGi377 March 08, 2020 8:02 PM  

I have read claims from functional medicine drs that 75% of your immune system comes from your gut flora. So paying attention to what you eat, maybe taking a good quality probiotic and / or including naturally fermented foods such as sauerkraut or kim chi would be beneficial (as an overall healthy boost). Ingesting essential oils such as oregano should only be done if you have researched the quality of the product - a lot of adulterations and use of chemical solvents in distillation means ingestion could be unsafe. Finally in the US, the FDA has started to recognize brands that can be ingested and so they are labeled as such. Otherwise avoid if not sure. Oregano oil will impact healthy gut flora as well, so probiotic should be included in your regimen if you're doing that. Now I don't think fermented foods such as wine or beer have the same effect as Kim chi - but they have other positive benefits 😉

Blogger Calvin809 March 08, 2020 8:06 PM  

The virus already mutated to a more deadly strain in China but it's suspected that the original less deadly strain is causing the pandemic in the rest of the world.

Blogger PJW Gent March 08, 2020 8:27 PM  

Here is an excellent article on how the virus infects, what causes the problems, and what you can do to stop it in its tracks from the Blaylock Wellness Report. I would consider this life-saving information.

Blogger PJW Gent March 08, 2020 8:41 PM  

Longtime Lurker wrote:@22: Fair warning. Mega doses of Vitamin C will give you the shitz and possibly nausea, vomiting, and headaches. Upper limit for adults is generally said to be 2,000 mg per day.

I mix a quarter teaspoon of 100 percent pure vitamin C crystals (about 1,200 mg) into a fruit and vegetable juice concoction every morning before I head out.


I have been taking 7-10 grams of Vitamin C daily for almost 10 years, as I have been on the Linus Pauling protocol. I am over 65 and my last carotid ultrasound showed 0% occlusion. I now divide the dose between crystal ascorbic acid and liposomal C. No problems with looseness unless I go above 4 grams of ascorbic acid (1 teaspoon) in a single dose. The liposomal C is almost as effective as intravenous C.

Blogger Lazarus March 08, 2020 10:09 PM  

Arrivederci, Boomerati:


We are at this point, we have to decide who will live and who will die, who will be cured and who will not. The doctors of the Italian Society of Anaesthesia, Analgesia, Resuscitation and Intensive Care (Siaarti) have written in a document that, in the face of the current epidemic and in the event of further worsening, the sacrifice of dozens of people will be inevitable due to their age and fragility.

We read: “It may be necessary to set an age limit when entering the intensive care unit. It is not a question of making purely valuable choices, but of reserving resources that may be very scarce for those who are more likely to survive and secondly for those who may have more years of life saved, with a view to maximizing the benefits for the greatest number of people”.


http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Articles/Article.aspx/25338

Blogger Nonanon March 08, 2020 10:10 PM  

Any info on Italy and Iran strains' genes? Jie Cui, Jian Lu et al curiously omitted those two countries from their study. (https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036/5775463)

Three distinct race-specific bioweapons possible?

Blogger Ska_Boss March 08, 2020 11:10 PM  

It's not exactly news that old people are a net loss to society, this is an easy choice. The worst part is, everyone eventually gets old.

Blogger English Tom March 08, 2020 11:55 PM  

@Brad

The pretext has been announced for global economic collapse.

Nailed it.

Blogger Boomer55 March 08, 2020 11:55 PM  

Northern Italy just so happens to be a suspect cabal leader hotspot according to AC. Move on, NOTHING TO SEE HERE! A bit of trivia is that the oldest existing bank in the world is headquartered in Italy! Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena.

Blogger Arthur Isaac March 09, 2020 12:08 AM  

They've abandoned containment and are talking mitigation now. Trump wouldn't close the border in the face of the Wu-Flu and is still not screening passengers at points of entry from hotspots. The wall and Q was ALL TALK. Let's get it on.

Blogger weka March 09, 2020 4:09 AM  

@Snidley. Is the boss ok? No new OP for 24 hours is not usual.

Blogger Akulkis March 09, 2020 6:29 AM  

@25
"My cynical side ha sma thinking this is a way to take the economy in an election year. My rational mind tells me that is nonsense."

That's not your rational mind, that's your irrational, emotional mind.

Blogger Lazarus March 09, 2020 6:32 AM  

Trump wouldn't close the border in the face of the Wu-Flu and is still not screening passengers at points of entry from hotspots.

Israel is requiring every passenger coming from a country on their risk list to go into 14 day isolation. That's efficiency.

Blogger Akulkis March 09, 2020 7:43 AM  

"Israel is requiring every passenger coming from a country on their risk list to go into 14 day isolation. That's efficiency."

And yet, deficient by at least 7 days, as it still won't catch anybody in the first 7 or so days of infection. Increase it to 28 days and they would be totally fine. The longer the quarantine period, the fewer people who will even be willing to show up, so, I doubt that doubling the quarantine period would result in doubling the number of people IN quarantine on any one day. Might even drop the size of the population due to so many people being deterred from even travelling to Israel.

On a related note, the Saudi Arabian government has cancelled The Hajj for this year (an obligatory at least once in a lifetime pilgrimage to Mecca and purportedly the site of Abraham's house. (From the pictures I've seen of the structure, it's smaller than an early 1800's unmarried pioneer's log cabin. Not consistent with the home that would be needed by a prolific Patriarch whose name is still recognized, by first name alone, in over half the world, several thousand years after his death.

Blogger Avalanche March 09, 2020 8:30 AM  

@90 "Malwin was on vacation. Mistakes were made."

Thread winner!

Blogger wgmeisheid March 09, 2020 8:50 AM  

Does alcohol hand sanitizer really expire? According to an article in Live Science, unopened sanitizer does not expire and expiration dates are based on opened sanitizer.

Here is the relevant portion.
Alcohol is a shelf-stable chemical according to its safety data sheet from chemical-supplier Sigma Aldrich. This means that if alcohol is kept in a sealed container at room temperature it will remain at the same concentration for a very, very long time.

However, alcohol evaporates easily because of its relatively low boiling point, and over time, as the bottle is opened and closed, some alcohol may escape and the concentration of alcohol in your hand sanitizer might start to decrease. Still, if you keep the bottle closed and at room temperature, you're likely to have an effective product for as long you need it.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd March 09, 2020 8:54 AM  

Arthur Isaac wrote:They've abandoned containment and are talking mitigation now. Trump wouldn't close the border in the face of the Wu-Flu and is still not screening passengers at points of entry from hotspots.
Remember the State Department 0bamoid in Japan who deliberately infected a planeload of passengers against Trump's orders? Trump has very little control over ``his'' government.

Trump is passing happygas about this pandemic, and that could easily backfire on him if whatever he's planning doesn't work out. We'll see: he has been right before.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan March 09, 2020 9:15 AM  

If there is some appetite for doom I can add a bit. This AM someone we know sent us video from Saudi of the grasshopper plague that has now reached to the Persian Gulf, and let me tell you it is quite impressive. I don't know if it can leap the Gulf or find a favorable ecological niche in Iran, Iraq and beyond but neither place seems well equipped under circumstances to deal with a locust plague of biblical proportions.

Blogger Arthur Isaac March 09, 2020 10:07 AM  

@OC, it's either happygas or shut down the economy. If the economy gets shut down we're on to an early version of Vox's 2033. I get that GE is in a bad place. But let's recognize that he's in a bad place and stop blowing sunshine.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd March 09, 2020 10:23 AM  

wgmeisheid wrote:Does alcohol hand sanitizer really expire?
Does your booze expire?

Blogger Zander Stander March 09, 2020 11:29 AM  

And they are allowed a wall of their own, so what is the surprise here? Ethnostate is gonna ethnostate, but don't you dare that.

Blogger wgmeisheid March 09, 2020 12:32 PM  

111. Ominous Cowherd March 09, 2020 10:23 AM
wgmeisheid wrote:
Does alcohol hand sanitizer really expire?

Does your booze expire?

Not unopened. However...
"Distilled spirits (vodka, rum, whisky, tequila, etc.) will not go bad in a sealed, unopened bottle. ... However, once a bottle of liquor is opened, the oxygen will interact slowly over time so that it may eventually lose its flavor or become weaker as some of the alcohol evaporates.
https://www.canitgobad.net/can-alcohol-go-bad/

Blogger Ominous Cowherd March 09, 2020 1:04 PM  

Trump probably figures the plague has to get bad enough to justify the economic hit. We absolutely want the plague to take the blame, rather than The Storm.

Blogger JohnK March 09, 2020 3:26 PM  

Meanwhile, good luck getting out of the country.

My wife and I are in Rome. We figured, hey, Rome and Florence aren't in the quarantine zone. This isn't that serious

Then they closed every museum, public space, and canceled all masses, and we're told "it's not urgent that we leave Rome". I mean, it's not like there's a reason to SHUT DOWN THE. APPETITES AIRPORTS or anything, right?

Geez.

Blogger Tanjil Bren March 09, 2020 5:15 PM  

"I have been taking 7-10 grams of Vitamin C daily for almost 10 years, as I have been on the Linus Pauling protocol...and my last carotid ultrasound showed 0% occlusion."

What excellent news for you (and for the protocol).
Just as a matter of interest, did you include L-Lysine at any point, and if so for how long?

Blogger PJW Gent March 09, 2020 7:30 PM  

Tanjil Bren wrote:"What excellent news for you (and for the protocol). Just as a matter of interest, did you include L-Lysine at any point, and if so for how long?"
I have been taking L-Lysine all along (2500+mg daily). It is part of the protocol.

Blogger Tanjil Bren March 09, 2020 8:44 PM  

"@22: Fair warning. Mega doses of Vitamin C will give you the shitz and possibly nausea, vomiting, and headaches. Upper limit for adults is generally said to be 2,000 mg per day."

I've also taken dosages well in excess of 10,000 mg per day with no ill effect (it makes an excellent systemic anti-fungal).
The largest known dose taken in one sitting is ~1kg (by a mental patient).
There were no ill effects.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd March 09, 2020 10:41 PM  

When I get a cold, I take 4grams or more of vitamin C per hour, every hour I'm awake. That's usually 50+ grams per day, for a couple of days. I think it was about 5 years back that I started taking 10,000IU of vitamin D each day. I haven't gotten sick enough to start dosing with the vitamin C during those 5 years.

Blogger Tanjil Bren March 09, 2020 10:45 PM  

"It is part of the protocol."

As I recall, one can stop taking L-Lysine once the plaques have cleared; Ascorbic Acid prevents their recurrence.

But please feel free to correct me if my recollection is faulty. It's been a while.

(I also take Lysine daily, but for other reasons.)

Blogger PJW Gent March 10, 2020 5:50 AM  

Re: "But please feel free to correct me if my recollection is faulty. It's been a while."

No correction necessary. Ascorbic acid prevents the lesions that initiate plaque in one problem vector. There are others. I take it as a safety precaution and it has other uses, as you have noted.

Blogger Annabel Lee March 10, 2020 10:59 AM  

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-italian-doctor-says-fighting-covid-19-outbreak-is-like-war-11954229

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