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Friday, March 13, 2020

This is not fear porn

First, if you think this is fear porn, then you aren't old enough to remember either AIDS or the Cold War. Second, this can't be "the same as SARS" or other recent epidemics, because corona-chan is observably at least one, and possibly two, orders of magnitude more infectious.

The SARS epidemic in 2003 reported 8098 cases with 774 deaths, and was eventually brought under control by July, 2003, in a matter of 8 months. Although 26 countries reported cases, the vast majority of cases were concentrated in five countries or regions: China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Toronto, Canada. SARS was eventually contained by means of syndromic surveillance, prompt isolation of patients, strict enforcement of quarantine of all contacts, and in some areas community-level quarantine. By interrupting all human-to-human transmission, SARS was effectively eradicated.

By contrast, there are presently 134,317 reported cases with 4,968 deaths in 116 countries in less than three months of the present pandemic. One of these things is not like the others. To claim that it is accomplishes nothing but to parade one's statistical innumeracy.

The refusal to take action in the face of potential adversity is not indicative of courage or intelligence. To the contrary, it is paralysis based on denial, fear, and binary thinking.

Neither pestilence nor war are influenced by your opinion of the reality of their existence.


Labels:

142 Comments:

Blogger Kraemer March 13, 2020 8:05 AM  

Let's get ready and hunker down. Talk to God about your fears and pick up some good books. Everyone else will be on Netflix, buffering the whole time.

Blogger SciVo March 13, 2020 8:16 AM  

You know, considering that unprocessed immigration literally threatens the Greeks' cherished elders with death -- and they already didn't want it anyway, and the invaders have already discarded the refugee mask for violence -- I expect them to really ramp up the lethality of their response, with little more than a mild "tut, tut" from most of the Northern hemisphere.

Blogger Sargent.matrim March 13, 2020 8:21 AM  

I have been leaning towards this being overly drummed up. I don't trust the media reports.

But I'm preparing, and encouraging others to prepare.

To not prepare is stupid.

Blogger Rowan March 13, 2020 8:26 AM  

I’m looking forward to getting my garden in tip top shape and finally digging Out the front lawn so I can put in the cottage garden I’ve always wanted.

My house sure as hell will be clean as a whistle.

Everyone is hand wringing (endlessly) about school closures. Not so much about the education, but oh noes! what do we do about the kids from abusive and neglectful homes, what about free lunch kids how will they eat?

Will we discover (heh) that most of these social services are unnecessary and are just part of a bloated state spending project?

I hate the NJEA with a passion. Until now, they wouldn’t let the state experiment with distance learning in middle and high schools because it would potentially put teachers out of work (I.e. expose the union’s sham).

I’m lovin’ it

Blogger Cappuccinobear March 13, 2020 8:28 AM  

Either this is a bioweapon that is ravaging the world or its a complete misrepresentation of the common cold. Or its somewhere inbetween. Hmmm, could it also be a division tactic?

Blogger Gallant March 13, 2020 8:37 AM  

The rational thing to do, as in all things, is continual observation and assessment and realignment to the information as it comes.

For some -and it may be different for different people of a different understanding of math - some of the problem, like the spread of the virus, is exponential or geometric. Each human contact carries a very tiny chance of transmission; but collectively they add up to a full pandemic. We don't have to know the exact numbers to plug in to the formula to see that it's probably there.

But you can also do a rational cost-benefit on the precautions without it being either panic or ignorance. Looking at one extreme of stupidity, is the cost benefit equation of simply "not touching the reporters' microphones".

There is some really low cost/benefit 'low hanging fruit' out there that can radically change transmission rates. It's good that we're taking them.

Blogger Silly but True March 13, 2020 8:37 AM  

My work is apparently the Vox Popoli message boards, but much dumber. At lunch, a young millennial technician was lamenting a nonessential, mostly professional networking conference the company was sending him to got canceled and he couldn’t understand why, because he never got sick and had no health risk conditions.

For most of lunch, myself and several others then became engaged in a transformation from mostly-futilely explaining why he would go superficially risk our pregnant admin asst.’s life since they seemed to get along well, her unborn child, and his own boss thirty years older who had several health issues and surgeries within the year, instead to potentially productive wondering why we employed him.

Blogger Yossarian March 13, 2020 8:57 AM  

The death rate for cardiovascular diseases and diabetes are several orders of magnitude higher and both are things you can effectively protect yourself against. Where's the worldwide panic buying of treadmills and celery?

Blogger Homesteader March 13, 2020 9:06 AM  


When circumstances change, so should behavior. This is elemental.

Circumstances have definitely changed.


Blogger Bernard Korzeniewicz March 13, 2020 9:08 AM  

DominionTankPolice:"Aim to wound, not to kill. You shoot a man and that's it. You sound a man and you tie 2 more to look after him."

Corona mainly wound… I say it is a weapon.

Blogger Reph March 13, 2020 9:09 AM  

I'm not certain how bad this will affect the US, but I've told my family to at least have a few weeks of dried and canned food just in case. Not preparing at least a little bit is foolish.

Blogger pyrrhus March 13, 2020 9:14 AM  

Dr. Shi and the American scientists who worked on the UNC Chapel Hill paper could doubtless enlighten us in many ways, but no sign that's going to happen......

Blogger Doktor Jeep March 13, 2020 9:14 AM  

Remember that "age" on these charts is not chronological. If you are like our host for example you can move down at least one age slot.
If you are a fatty, move up at least one. Heck how often we see fat girls try to lie about their age in such futility as evidenced by the fact that an obese 20 year old has a body only as good as one that is already 40.
America has no shortage of people fitting this description, from already obese and diabetic Hispanics and blacks to fat boomer pig-demons already on at least one prescription drug for something, plus the smoking and general garbage eating, expect the absolute worst. At this time, since hospitals are already walk in clinics for illegals, act like there are already no more hospitals and make plans around that. Recall how survival manuals advise against doing anything that could break a bone for example. There are no hospitals at this point. Learn how to do a butterfly stitch.

Blogger Conan the Cimmerian March 13, 2020 9:23 AM  

Nation's Nerds Wake Up In Utopia Where Everyone Stays Inside, Sports Are Canceled, Social Interaction Forbidden:

https://babylonbee.com/news/nations-nerds-wake-up-in-utopia-where-everyone-stays-inside-sports-canceled-social-interaction-forbidden



"I have been waiting my whole life for this moment," said Ned Pendleton, 32 -- via text message, of course -- as he fired up League of Legends on his beefy gaming PC. "They told me to take up a sport and that the kids playing basketball and stuff were gonna be way more successful than us nerds who played Counter-Strike at LAN parties every weekend."

"They all laughed at me. Well, who's laughing now?"

To prepare for the onslaught of the deadly disease, nerds are changing absolutely nothing and are expected to rise up to rule the post-Coronavirus society, as they are the ones best adjusted to being sheltered in a basement, garage, or room for many days at a time marathoning Halo, Half-Life, The Legend of Zelda, Red Dead Redemption, or Horizon Zero Dawn. They're also ready for any post-apocalyptic wasteland, as they've played many, many hours of Fallout and are adept at killing bloatflies and collecting bottlecaps.

Of course, many nerds are running out of hygienic products, but they say that's "not an issue."

Blogger VD March 13, 2020 9:25 AM  

The death rate for cardiovascular diseases and diabetes are several orders of magnitude higher and both are things you can effectively protect yourself against. Where's the worldwide panic buying of treadmills and celery?

Just going to keep doubling down on your posturing, are you? All you're doing is demonstrating an inability to grasp simple risk-reward calculations.

To protect yourself against obesity is a lifelong battle that requires at least 45 minutes every day plus resisting daily temptation to indulge your appetite. Washing your hands and reducing your social activity for one month is very, very easy by comparison.

You seriously can't understand that? Or did you just think your resort to cheap rhetoric would go unnoticed here, of all places?

Blogger JamesB.BKK March 13, 2020 9:25 AM  

None of those other things had numerous reports of senior medical administrative people, hospital chief doctors, govt executive types, MPs, and the like not just catching it but succumbing.

Blogger Brett baker March 13, 2020 9:28 AM  

Prop up the MSM's ratings and income. Also, Orange Man Bad will kill us all if we don't elect Biden!

Blogger JamesB.BKK March 13, 2020 9:30 AM  

None of those other things had numerous reports of senior medical administrative people, hospital chief doctors, govt executive types, MPs, and the like not just catching it but succumbing.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd March 13, 2020 9:33 AM  

Unknown wrote:Hmmm, could it also be a division tactic?
Also. Of course. None of the squabbling ruling class factions are going to let a crisis go to waste.

Blogger Shannon March 13, 2020 9:42 AM  

How do they come up with these numbers? Are they testing everyone in a population, even those with no symptoms? The death rate would be artificially inflated if you only tested people with fever.

Blogger rumpole5 March 13, 2020 9:44 AM  

Regardless of how communicable and dangerous this thing is, it is not something you want to court. Bronchitis and pneumonia cause permanent damage to your body even if you do shake it off. Such makes you more susceptible to future bouts. Do yourself and everyone around you a favor and do everything within reason to avoid catching Wuhan flu. That is not over reacting.

Blogger John Best. March 13, 2020 9:47 AM  

I worked out a few years ago that the globalist defeats in the UK are speeding up. First defeat in Northern Ireland in 1998, second defeat the 2008 financial crash, 2016 Brexit vote. So I expect the next defeat to come in 4 or 6 years, I just didn't think it would be a virus they themselves put into the world.

Blogger Barbarossa March 13, 2020 9:48 AM  

@8 The flabzillas crowding the buffet line aren't all going to simultaneously code. The blimpasauruses shoving Twinkies into their pie holes aren't all going to fall into insulin shock on the same weekend. All 40K auto deaths in the US aren't going to happen on the same Friday night. There's volume and then there's rate.

And I take it that your nom de guerre is supposed to let us plebes know that you are oh so above it all worldly wise. Duly noted.

Blogger MDN March 13, 2020 9:48 AM  

How is it a valid to compare the Flu death rate, which is deaths divided by ESTIMATED cases versus CV-19 which is deaths divided by CONFIRMED cases?

I'm genuinely asking since this seems stupifying to me. The CDC reports there are ~250K lab confirmed cases of the flu this season so if we take that divided by ~20K flu-related deaths, the death rate is ~8%. Isn't that a more valid comparison?

Blogger Duke Norfolk March 13, 2020 9:57 AM  

The cynicism that has justifiably built up to epic levels in our society may end up causing as much damage as anything.

Over the last handful of years I've become almost as cynical as anyone, but simply reflexively reacting to this based on what the media/politicians/etc. are saying is simplistic and stupid. There's enough information available to make some good decisions about this thing. And to deny what's going on right before our eyes (in Italy, for instance), is absurd.

And as usual, as VD points out often, binary thinking leads to huge error.

Blogger Maniac March 13, 2020 9:58 AM  

"I'm not certain how bad this will affect the US, but I've told my family to at least have a few weeks of dried and canned food just in case. Not preparing at least a little bit is foolish."

I bought a few bulk packages of Ramen just in case. Not the healthiest food in the world, but it's something. I'm probably gonna buy a few jugs of protein powder on my way home from work tonight too.

Blogger Fletch March 13, 2020 9:59 AM  

This is a handy device to convince people of the value of self sufficiency.

I'm beginning to suspect some of the divide in reaction is generational. Boomers trusting the media (or an alternative form of it) 100% down to Zoomers believing the polar opposite of what is reported 100%. The bigger they build the tower of fear, the more some disbelieve it, until it doesn't even register in their minds.

Personally, the still voice inside me says, "Chill, M8." And that's good enough for me.

Blogger Uncle John's Band March 13, 2020 10:01 AM  

"The death rate for cardiovascular diseases and diabetes are several orders of magnitude higher and both are things you can effectively protect yourself against."

Let's puzzle it out. There's that pesky contagiousness. And the concomitant potential for exponential growth.

But there's no cure for stupid.

Blogger Pratisara March 13, 2020 10:10 AM  

If you ask them what do the same kids do over weekends, holidays, spring and summer break without the school to "provide services" for them, all you will hear is crickets.

One could only hope that this event shines a light on the infested education industrial complex.

Blogger Aaron March 13, 2020 10:11 AM  

I would think that, if there was ever a situation in which it would be wise to err on the side of caution, that this might be one such situation. Which is fine by me as I usually don't leave the house unless necessary anyway.

Blogger Heian-kyo Dreams March 13, 2020 10:15 AM  

The Johns Hopkins site downgraded the numbers to 91k confirmed cases today. Either they're downplaying the situation, or admitting everyone is clueless.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Stay safe and healthy, everyone!

Blogger Lazarus March 13, 2020 10:22 AM  

So it is so far holding the pattern of >4% infection rate of the population as a whole with a little less than 4% death rate overall = .16% death rate in a given population.

Therefore potential deaths in Italy should be (60.5 mil X .16%)= 96,800.

Blogger Heian-kyo Dreams March 13, 2020 10:22 AM  

The Johns Hopkins low numbers are probably a browser error on my end. They are showing 137k.

Blogger urthshu March 13, 2020 10:26 AM  

In this particular case refusing to prepare, take precautions, or accept legitimate medical advice from public health workers is being the Special Snowflake.

Blogger Kat March 13, 2020 10:29 AM  

Rumor is that Alabama is about to shut down the state with zero reported cases. I hope we do.

Nothing wrong with staying home to indulge your hobbies and spend time with family, but I've already gotten the standard boomer "you really can't expect me to restrict my freedom because reasons" response.

Blogger DannyDanger March 13, 2020 10:33 AM  

There has been a lot of great advice given on vitamins and supplements to boost the immune system. I’m not sure if anyone mentioned this already, but the amino acid N-acetyl cysteine is another great one to have on hand as it is particularly helpful for lung issues. It is especially good when taken along with L-glutamine & a nitrogen booster like L-arginine or L-citrulline.

Here is an abstract on NAC having a positive effect on patients with pneumonia: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6250560/

Blogger urthshu March 13, 2020 10:35 AM  

What we're seeing BTW is a small portion of people who are traveling out of affected areas with the infection getting sick along the way home. They perceive the screening process as possibly stranding them wherever they are so, feverish and not thinking especially straight, they take alternative travel routes like buses or trains. That's hundreds of people exposed every time.

Blogger Up from the pond March 13, 2020 10:50 AM  

No man knows the day or the hour when the end of the world will befall us. The Bible describes it as "sudden destruction." In historical terms, a couple months is rather sudden.

The world ends not with a bang or a whimper, but with a desperate gasping for breath?

At least we would no longer have to file our income taxes. There's the silver lining.

Blogger Tom March 13, 2020 10:55 AM  

One of the buildings my wife provides IT support for has just been shut down because of two presumptive cases. She'll be working from home for the foreseeable future. I already work from home. A good thing I've laid in enough food (human and dog), booze and other supplies to last us for a long time.

Blogger J Van Stry March 13, 2020 10:58 AM  

I think there are a lot more cases out there than reported. I'm starting to suspect that the flu I had in February, was this, and not the normal flu, as I had all of the symptoms.
But as testing is pretty much non-existent in the US for anyone not famous, I have no idea.

Blogger Sillon March 13, 2020 11:00 AM  

Why it is so hard for some people to understand that we're not the masters of nature.

We're in this world at god's mercy, and in this instance he's sent us ample warning that the "Babel tower of globalism" is collapsing.

Get out of the way (prepare) or get crushed when it falls.

The world has been heading for a correction for a long time.

Blogger theartistformerlyknownasgeorge March 13, 2020 11:03 AM  

This is as much fear porn as Aids was.

Everyone was told to worry when only fags and drug addicts (and those who slept with them) were at risk.

Blogger Solon March 13, 2020 11:04 AM  

@9
That was their big rhetorical blow against John Kerry, back in the day: "he's a flip-flopper!"

I didn't like John Kerry then and I dont now, but that argument never held water for me. So what if he flip-flopped? Realizing you were wrong and correcting yourself is a virtue, not a weakness. Only idiots rush forward blindly without taking in new information and changing tactics.

That's how you get infantry rushes against dug-in machine gun nests.

You can flip-flop the wrong way too, of course. Dems blaming Trump for not doing enough to combat Corona... then they'll blame him for enforcing quarantine with the military. That's an example of worthless shifting principles, right there, although you could argue that their only principle is "Orange Man Bad," in which case they've been rock steady this whole time.

Blogger Sillon March 13, 2020 11:06 AM  

protect yourself against obesity is a lifelong battle that requires at least 45 minutes every day plus resisting daily temptation to indulge your appetite. Washing your hands and reducing your social activity for one month is very, very easy by comparison.

I'm shocked these basic things need to be explained, of all the places here.

Someone else's obesity won't usually kill your relatives/neighbour, this virus could cause one to inadvertedly death sentence his relatives/neighbour by reckless contagion.

It is not that hard to understand even for a simple mind like mine, what the heck is some people thinking is happening?

There is nature on the loose, nature doesn't care, it just does it's thing, we're supposed to be the rational ones and get out of the way as much as we can.

Blogger Unknown March 13, 2020 11:10 AM  

Keep in mind that the mortality rate in the graphic posted here for the Wuhan virus is magnified by weak detection. Only the most symptomatic cases are detected, this makes it look worse than it is in terms of mortality. It is believed that 80% of cases only have mild symptoms.

Countries with better surveillance are showing a much lower mortality rate. Germany for example has confirmed twice the number of cases as the US and has a current mortality rate of 0.2%, which is in fact similar to the flu. S. Korea, is also performing a high number of tests and has a mortality rate of 0.8%, which is some what worse than the flu. Nonetheless, unless you believe S. Korea and Germany are detecting 100% of cases, the actual mortality rate is even lower.

Blogger Crush Limbraw March 13, 2020 11:19 AM  

There are some Conservative websites that I have come to suspect are controlled opposition - their only game is blaming DaLeft, never acknowledging Conservative enablers.
Now the game has become 'Don't Panic' or it's just a 'Political' disease.
Suspicion confirmed!

Blogger jamsco March 13, 2020 11:19 AM  

Quick question: Is it be reasonable to respond to someone posting Scary Virus Statistics with "Okay, Introvert"?

Asking for a friend.

Blogger Beardy Bear March 13, 2020 11:20 AM  

Can we start calling it the boomer-bug yet? Heaven knows they'll make this about themselves eventually.

Blogger SemiSpook37 March 13, 2020 11:22 AM  

@1: Not everyone. Can only take the content there in fits and starts these days. Really close to cutting the cord, especially when their credit leverage blows up in their faces.

Try as one might to be the least bit proactive, the folks here in my neck of the woods are obviously freaking out about the circumstances. Wife just let me know a lot of the basics at our usual grocery retailer were sold out, but we got enough to be at least taken care of to minimize necessary trips out.

Blogger braq March 13, 2020 11:26 AM  

The most amusing part of the past couple of days has been the increasingly strident protestations of the "It's just a flu, bro!" crowd. Instead of noticing that mob mentality (whatever its objective validity) is an external reality they have to adjust to, they keep doubling down on how stupid everyone else is and how ridiculous panic-buying TP is.

"WHY WON'T EVERYONE STOP BEING STUPID AND LISTEN TO ME?!?" goes the Secret-King narcissist refrain, ramped up to 11 as they angrily expose themselves to infection while fruitlessly wandering the aisles in search of toilet paper.

Blogger Doktor Jeep March 13, 2020 11:34 AM  

Annnd one of my co-workers is getting sent home RFN.

Blogger Arthur Isaac March 13, 2020 11:40 AM  

I don't like being called a blackpiller, but I'm preparing for civil unrest and a significant economic downturn. I hope others here are also preparing for those eventualities.

Blogger Homesteader March 13, 2020 11:47 AM  

We are starting to cancel elective cases, finally.

I've been discussing the likely
conversion of the ORs into ICU beds, since each OR has an anesthesia machine that can be used as a vent. I suspect that plan will be activated next week.

The problem then, is staffing those rooms. Most of the Cath Lab staff are ICU/ER, so they can revert if needed. OR staff, not so much. Every MD on staff will revert to ER/Medicine, I'd think- that appears to be the case in Italy.

We'll see what the next two weeks bring. I very much hope I am wrong about all of this.

Right now, the COVID-19 surveillance unit is not overflowing. But reality is starting to shift.

The normalcy bias is evaporating, finally. But it's too little, too late, I fear.

I've been successful in not bitch-slapping the naysayers on staff. (And yes-they've been Boomers.)

The thing to remember- change in dynamic situations is not gradual. The existing trend line is not predictive.

As for Yossarian's comment, neither of the conditions he mentioned have the capacity for widespread social disruption that
Corona-chan does.
So "muh-stop overreacting" is a too-short-for-this-ride headstamp.

Quit embarrassing yourself, please.

Wakey-wakey, people.

Interesting times are upon us.

Blogger Yossarian March 13, 2020 12:06 PM  

VD wrote:Or did you just think your resort to cheap rhetoric would go unnoticed here, of all places?

I do not expect my rhetoric to go unnoticed in the same place where I learned what rhetoric and dialectic is.

VD wrote:To protect yourself against obesity is a lifelong battle

Exactly. Which is why it should have been or at the very least should be taken more seriously.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30627-9/fulltext
"The mean age of those who died in Italy was 81 years and more than two-thirds of these patients had diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, or cancer, or were former smokers.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30558-4/fulltext
"More attention should be paid to comorbidities in the treatment of COVID-19. In the literature, COVID-19 is characterised by the symptoms of viral pneumonia such as fever, fatigue, dry cough, and lymphopenia. Many of the older patients who become severely ill have evidence of underlying illness such as cardiovascular disease, liver disease, kidney disease, or malignant tumours."

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30566-3/fulltext
"191 patients (135 from Jinyintan Hospital and 56 from Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital) were included in this study, of whom 137 were discharged and 54 died in hospital. 91 (48%) patients had a comorbidity, with hypertension being the most common (58 [30%] patients), followed by diabetes (36 [19%] patients) and coronary heart disease (15 [8%] patients)."

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30211-7/fulltext
"50 (51%) patients had chronic diseases."

https://www.uptodate.com/contents/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19
"Most of the fatal cases have occurred in patients with advanced age or underlying medical comorbidities."

https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/9/6/e025276
"In total, 83 227 events of ILI-related hospitalisation from 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2010 were included for analysis.[...] Among the overall comorbidities, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)/asthma (39.23%) was the top prevalent comorbidity, followed by hypertension (36.84%), heart disease (26.16%), cerebrovascular accident (CVA) (20.35%) and diabetes (19.72%)."


If just being preventive is the name of the game why should people stop at food and toiletry? Regular exercise can add up to 10 years to your lifespan. If people did the research, as they say, and in two months have developed a healthy exercise routine I'll eat my own words. I don't think that will happen because I do believe this is just media-induced fear on a worldwide scale. The populations at risk are the same as the populations at risk in every flu season. If that changes I'll incorporate "retarded" in my name somehow.

Blogger KPKinSunnyPhiladelphia March 13, 2020 12:06 PM  

Yes, covid-19 is almost certainly worse than the seasonal flu, but we don't really know how much worse at this point.

The chart Vox presents is dramatic, and probably more right than wrong at older age ranges, but because we are only using current reported numbers as the denominator, percentages may -- and I want to stress MAY -- be off by some factor.

Moreover, we probably have some weird skewing that we just can't account for. I haven't seen the death rate in Italy vs China's -- are those numbers consistent across the two geographies? across race? sex? across shared comorbidities?

The same skewing issues apply to the R naught index. I've read there are 250,000 Chinese in Northern Italy. How much of the incidence there is due to so called "community spread," and how much to the fact that there are thousands of symptomatic and asymptomatic Han carriers that we simply can't account for in the midst of the crisis there?

So yeah, prepare for the worst, obviously, and be sensible under the assumption that we may be in Spanish Flu or bubonic plague territory. But we're probably not there. At least yet.

One piece of good news -- this is a full employment opportunity for epidemiologists -- there will be papers on this one for years to come.

Blogger wEz March 13, 2020 12:18 PM  

I want my English Premier League back dang it.

Blogger RobertT March 13, 2020 12:39 PM  

... with underlying health problems.

Blogger Servant March 13, 2020 12:41 PM  

Having just switched to hospitality from manufacturing jobwise I'll feel the pinch. Hopefully the shit ends soon. Gives me plenty of time to build a chicken coop and finish up my house at least

Blogger Jeroth March 13, 2020 12:47 PM  

Why was Trump so slow to take this seriously? He was comparing it to the flu just this Monday.

I am fully prepared because I am a responsible person. But either Trump was being extremely stupid, or he knows for a fact it's not nearly as serious as it is. If there is a third option, I would appreciate someone explaining it to me.

Blogger FP March 13, 2020 1:11 PM  

Governor Kate Brown of Oregon has shut schools down until March 31st.

Blogger Scuzzaman March 13, 2020 1:31 PM  

The third option is that he knew the leftards would scream and shout and demand that he do more.

Because he’s smarter than a mushroom.

And they’re not.

Blogger bodenlose Schweinerei March 13, 2020 1:32 PM  

What's the over/under on when Biden refers to it as "the grippe"?

Blogger Kingly Gift March 13, 2020 1:35 PM  

If the CDC an other various "masters of the universe" bureaucracies had let the market provide testing to people who wanted it months ago, the mortality rate of this virus would probably look much lower. Instead, the epidemiology bodies, instead of facilitating the gathering and publication of good information, skewed the information by only selection for the sickest people to get tested. This skews the mortality rate higher than it actually is. Also, this limitation on early testing masked how much the virus had already spread months ago.

Basically, the CDC et al in their efforts to not cause a panic, has hampered the ability to have good information, which is causing the panic. Not that I mind many of the actions now being taken, I just wanted to point out how the government screws up everything it touches. It will also be annoying when the CDC and HHS get expanded budgets to prevent this sort of thing in the future. Proving that the more a bureaucracy screws up (through it's own arrogance) the more money it gets.

Blogger KPKinSunnyPhiladelphia March 13, 2020 1:47 PM  

Jeroth wrote:Why was Trump so slow to take this seriously? He was comparing it to the flu just this Monday.

I am fully prepared because I am a responsible person. But either Trump was being extremely stupid, or he knows for a fact it's not nearly as serious as it is. If there is a third option, I would appreciate someone explaining it to me.


A lesson in leadership.

Good leaders get in front of things shortly -- and the adverb is very important here -- shortly after the led are comfortable with the direction.

In other words, you can't lead people in a direction the people don't want to go.

Remember, that a national emergency requires the NATION -- including those who loathe Trump -- to be a least partially if not fully onboard.

In other words, timing is everything. It may not be completely on point, but it can happen even if slightly delayed.

The led need to be on board with the leader leading in a direction they are now ready to go.

Blogger OneWingedShark March 13, 2020 1:53 PM  

Jeroth wrote:I am fully prepared because I am a responsible person. But either Trump was being extremely stupid, or he knows for a fact it's not nearly as serious as it is. If there is a third option, I would appreciate someone explaining it to me.
The third option is that it's being underplayed. Why?
Well, with minimization (like "it's just the flu, bro!") it actively pushes people toward normalcy-bias, which in-turn means that it has more chance to spread, especially during the 14–24 day asymptomatic contagious-carrier phase. — Why would people pursue this, purposely making it more devastating?

See: "Georgia Guidestones".
Evil people planning evil upon you.

Blogger MDN March 13, 2020 1:57 PM  

@55
"The chart Vox presents is dramatic, and probably more right than wrong at older age ranges, but because we are only using current reported numbers as the denominator, percentages may -- and I want to stress MAY -- be off by some factor."

Thank you - someone - for pointing this out. The comparison Vox (and many others TBF) is making in that chart is totally invalid and not apples to apples.

Denominator for the flu in that chart is ESTIMATED cases based on epi models, not in any way shape or form confirmed cases. The models adjust for underreporting.

The denominator for coronavirus is CONFIRMED cases. If we only use lab confirmed cases for the flu, the death rate for this season in the US goes up to 8-20% (20-52K/250K)

No one knows how many total infections of corona there are, but based on how easy it is seemingly spread and how mild most cases are, the actual number of cases might be orders of magnitude larger than the few thousand everyone is reporting.

Vox is obviously not innumerate so I'm surprised to see him say this in the OP.

Blogger Rakshasa March 13, 2020 2:06 PM  

About three weeks ago I had a thorough Japanse insurance/labor law mandated health checkup and my white blood cell count was over 9000, half again as high as the normal upper bound of 6000 something units.

Does this mean I've had a cute girlfriend living with me all these weeks?

Blogger Barbarossa March 13, 2020 2:06 PM  

@54

Wow. You're the dude on the Titanic who's chasing after the steward to point out that your bed wasn't properly turned down for the evening. "Yes, I know the ship is sinking, but what about my bed!"

Also, given the wide play that the questionable value of scientific studies has gotten in this forum, do you really think plastering a slew of URLs is going to convince everyone to drop their ongoing preparations for the current situation and go pester their flabby next-door neighbor to drop the jelly-filled doughnut and pick up a dumbbell instead?

But, yes, yes, Captain Yossarian, we get it. You're the only sane one here. Carry on.

Blogger Jeroth March 13, 2020 2:07 PM  

Scuzzaman wrote:The third option is that he knew the leftards would scream and shout and demand that he do more.

Because he’s smarter than a mushroom.

And they’re not.


At the risk of persuading boomercons into thinking the virus is nothing to worry about? Katy Hopkins is on twitter right now telling people to try and contract the virus. The left is absolutely insane, but this is giving them a run for their money.

Blogger Yossarian March 13, 2020 2:30 PM  

Uncle John's Band wrote:Let's puzzle it out. There's that pesky contagiousness. And the concomitant potential for exponential growth.



CVD kills almost 18 million per year with 422 million cases.
COVID-19 has a death rate of <4% and is currently sitting at 5000 deaths with only 9 months to go. Therefore your boi needs on average >1.5 million infections per day to reach a close tie. Will he pull it off?

Blogger Jack Amok March 13, 2020 2:39 PM  

Where's the worldwide panic buying of treadmills and celery?

If you touch the same door knob a fat person touched two hours ago, you're not going to wake up in a week suddenly 30 lbs heavier. And cancelling large public gatherings isn't going to help anyone get into better shape. Don't be a monomaniacal sperg.

None of those other things had numerous reports of senior medical administrative people, hospital chief doctors, govt executive types, MPs, and the like not just catching it but succumbing.

I know the head of infectious medicine at the local hospital where this broke out in Washington State. I haven't heard a peep from him since it started, but I saw him on TV. He looks really tired. He didn't look like someone who thinks it's a hoax, and this is a guy who's been on the ground in Africa treating Ebola outbreaks.

The Johns Hopkins low numbers are probably a browser error on my end. They are showing 137k.

Yep, though it could be on their end too - I suspect they are having capacity issues with way more people pinging their site than normal. It's pretty common in situations like that to occasionally get old numbers - some older cache got hit, or only partial results came back. I've been tracking it for a couple of weeks now, and it glitches every so often.

Blogger Zander Stander March 13, 2020 2:44 PM  

According to the six degrees of separation conjecture, somebody here must know somebody who knows somebody etc. who died of Corona. Any takers?

Blogger JamesB.BKK March 13, 2020 3:12 PM  

If that changes I'll incorporate "retarded" in my name somehow.

Just for the sake of planning, may I suggest: "The Retard Yossarian, Who Is Retarded?"

Blogger daddynichol March 13, 2020 3:37 PM  

Can anyone spot the gamma?

Blogger Noah B. March 13, 2020 3:44 PM  

So far about 3/4 of the deaths have been in Washington. It must really be bad up there.

I do know a couple of people here who are in self quarantine because the minister of their church, who they had recently visited with, was the first confirmed coronavirus case in Tarrant county. No confirmed coronavirus deaths here yet though.

Blogger Homesteader March 13, 2020 3:56 PM  

Update- We just locked all entrances except the main entrance. Security is screening visitors.

All elective cases are cancelled.

Blogger Zeroh Tollrants March 13, 2020 3:57 PM  

Thanks for the info, Danny. I have some lung issues from some childhood illnesses and smoking for years when I was younger didn't help.
In December, I had physical contact with 3 of my employees from around Beijing. Days later, I got really sick and the doctor said I had the flu. I'm sure (I guess, right?), that it wasn't the Wu Flu, but by early to mid Jan I had developed a prolonged case of bronchitis and by the beginning of Feb, I had pneumonia. I am STILL fighting off all the effects of being very, very sick for approx 3 mos altogether. I never go out when I think I'm contagious with anything and I've only left my house in the last 3 mos approx 5xs and 4 of those were to go a mile away to the doctor.
I'm scared of the Wu Flu. Part of the reason I quit going out besides feeling horrible and common courtesy was because of the horror stories my workers in China were telling me plus the news, of course.
If I have to stay home until June, or whatever, so be it. I'll still probably get it if it's in my area from my family bringing it home, anyway
I have lots of hand sanitizer because I bought 5 2 liter bottles back in Dec, but if anyone wants some you can make your own with aloe vera gel and rubbing alcohol above 60%.
It's 3 parts alcohol to 1 part gel but you can always add more aloe to get a thicker consistency and it also thickens a bit after standing awhile.
Stay safe,everyone.

Blogger Yossarian March 13, 2020 3:58 PM  

Jack Amok wrote:If you touch the same door knob a fat person touched two hours ago, you're not going to wake up in a week suddenly 30 lbs heavier.

Neither will I wake up in a hospital if said fatso had the dreaded COVID-19.

Jack Amok wrote:He looks really tired.

Probably from having to explain to people it's the flu season and fear releases cortisol which in turn lowers the immune system response which it turn lowers the health prognosis.

Blogger Zeroh Tollrants March 13, 2020 4:04 PM  

It's severe autism, right?
Because you obviously are missing major cues that would make you think this response was a good idea.
It's not.

Blogger Scuzzaman March 13, 2020 4:12 PM  

I remember both AIDS and the Cold War.
I remember the experts in the newspapers talking about AIDS cases doubling every x months and the entire human race being dead in 12 years.
I remember both arming and feeding the allegedly existential threat that was the other party to the Cold War.
I remember the lies of the CDC, a massive part of which was enormously inflating - on the basis of no evidence whatsoever, in fact contrary to the little evidence they did have - the number of Swine Flu infected. Ditto SARS, MERS, H1N1, bird flu, and Zika.
I remember an article today examining the function of the tests being used to confirm corona chan cases, which claims that approximately 80% of results are false positives.

None of this is evidence that the corona chan pan(dem)ic is not dangerous, just as the Cold War was incredibly dangerous.

It just was not anything like what it was presented as. As Vox has pointed out many times, the only thing we can be absolutely certain of is that the liars are not telling the truth.

Cui bono?

Blogger Up from the pond March 13, 2020 4:13 PM  

@59

Jeroth, because you asked, it's happy talk to keep markets up. That's the tl:dr.

One Boomer belief is the unlimited power of a positive attitude. Note: unlimited. According to this belief, there is no objective reality, there are only feelings. In other words, if you can make people feel that x is true or untrue, then x will be true or untrue.

Examples. People aren't falling sick if you believe they aren't falling sick. You yourself are sick only because you have wrong thoughts (there is a churchian sect called "Christian Science" which asserts that). There are no problems with our economy or our personal bank account if we simply decide that we feel that there are no problems with our economy or our personal bank account. Tinkerbell will live if you believe, so please clap.

Scott Adams has a similar belief system. So do crooks and con artists.

Trump's pastor was Norman Vincent Peale, author of _The Power of Positive Thinking_.* Is that significant? It might be.

In the minds of people who hold this belief, life comes to seem like nothing more than a battle of good happy-talkers vs. bad blackpillers. There is no pandemic, it's just that those darn old Russians and Dumb-o-craps are using negative talk to bring our 401Ks down: that remarkable statement is partly a fear response, but partly it also comes from a "feelings are facts" or "believing makes it so" worldview. This worldview was drummed into some Boomers in explicit form in corporate training or college.

* Positivity and courage are necessary in life. But positivity can be ruinous when courage is abandoned. That's because abandoning courage turns positivity into an excuse to ignore or neglect important facts.

Blogger Akulkis March 13, 2020 4:33 PM  

"I don't trust the media reports."

You don't have to trust the media.

Trust 4chan and 8kun (formerly 8chan).

Blogger Stocky Anglo March 13, 2020 4:40 PM  

Whether the virus is non-sense or real is kind of irrelevant at this point. Most folks aren't informed enough to determine if its real or not, nor are most folks going to expend the energy necessary to figure it out. So being prepared for the likely response of most folks seems sound.

Blogger Akulkis March 13, 2020 5:05 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Akulkis March 13, 2020 5:08 PM  

"And I take it that your nom de guerre is supposed to let us plebes know that you are oh so above it all worldly wise. Duly noted."

If that was his goal, he failed.

Yossarian is the main character in Joseph Heller's excellent book "Catch-22"

Yossarian is extremely terrified on the squadron's bombing missions, while everyone else in the squadron is fairly non-plussed.

(Hint -- In the book, Heller uses some literary technique which cannot be translated into film. If you have not seen the film, read the book first. Seeing the movie first will diminish the enjoyment of the book more than reading the book will diminish the movie.

Blogger weka March 13, 2020 5:08 PM  

@braq. Gammas going to Globohomo. Think of Corona Chan as evolution in action.

Blogger Akulkis March 13, 2020 5:12 PM  

@8

"Where's the worldwide panic buying of treadmills and celery?"

Have you ever caught heart disease from someone who had a heart attack?

Have you ever caught obesity by getting too close to a ham-planet at work or in a store while out shopping?

Have you ever caught diabetes from your favorite sugar fiend?

Blogger Akulkis March 13, 2020 5:20 PM  

@8

"In this particular case refusing to prepare, take precautions, or accept legitimate medical advice from public health workers is being the Special Snowflake."

Limbaugh is acting like a complete idiot about this, to the point that it's embarrassing. I think it's because the NCAA all the pro sports leagues, even the PGA, have called it quits, until this burns itself out.

I understand why he says "if someone throws a recession, just refuse to participate," as a way of bucking up people's spirits -- but to spend as if the economy is healthy and there is no danger of getting laid off next week was always silly advice for employees who don't have access to the company books. [Look how, even in this GOOD economy, two major dairy companies, Dean Foods, and then Borden, declared bankruptcy and closed shop without a hint of financial problems].

To take the same attitude with a proven lethal virus is... so cringey. He's acting like this is some sort of left-wing plot.

Blogger Silent Draco March 13, 2020 5:32 PM  

@21, been there, rumpole5. Mild flu and a high stress year gave me walking pneumonia. Should have been too young for the combination - very sick building contributed. Doctor's response to hearing my lungs was "you ARE able to take off at least two weeks from work" and two full courses of antibiotics. On fast hikes or yard work days, I know exactly when I hit the lost lung capacity. I tried to bull through; don't do it.

Blogger Akulkis March 13, 2020 5:35 PM  

@42
"This is as much fear porn as Aids was.

Everyone was told to worry when only fags and drug addicts (and those who slept with them) were at risk."

Are you really so stupid that you can't tell the difference between an airborne pathogen and a bloodborne pathogen that has to literally be injected into someone for a successful transmission?

AIDS is NOT transmitted by casual contact.
This is transmitted by being in the same 150-foot long aluminum tube as someone with it. Or hanging around in the same restaurant where someone who has it has been.

AIDS isn't transmitted by touching a countertop that an infected person touched a day ago. THIS IS.

Blogger Akulkis March 13, 2020 5:36 PM  

@56

"I want my English Premier League back dang it."

Is finding something more productive to do with your evenings than watching grown men play a schoolboy's game gonna kill ya?

Blogger Uncle John's Band March 13, 2020 5:41 PM  

"COVID-19 has a death rate of <4% and is currently sitting at 5000 deaths"

What part of contagious vs. non-contagious is eluding you? Are you really too stupid to understand a difference in kind? I'd suggest looking up the word "transmissibility" for a start, but it probably has too many syllables.

Blogger Akulkis March 13, 2020 5:42 PM  

@59

"I am fully prepared because I am a responsible person. But either Trump was being extremely stupid, or he knows for a fact it's not nearly as serious as it is. If there is a third option, I would appreciate someone explaining it to me."

With this sort of thing, timing is everything.

Go TOO SOON, before there's anything serious, and the people say you restricted their lives for no reason at all, and you get booted out of office at election time.

Go Too late, and you have a wrecked economy, images of people literally dying in the street (like what happened in China), and you get booted out of office at the next election.

Basically, he had to wait for the number of infections to start following the exponential trend so that his declaration would be backed up by other actions (like schools sending their students home, national sports leagues being shut down, etc.) so that he has the, if not the majority of public opinion with him, at least the actions of people whose own rice-bowls will be overturned or even destroyed by inaction.

Blogger J Van Stry March 13, 2020 5:46 PM  

@77 I'm in the same boat as you, only my lung issues comes from being exposed to toxins when working for the DOD (I wish I'd been wise enough to sue before the company I worked for went out of business).
However, because I've had a LOT of experience with bronchitis (I've had it over 20 times since then) I went to the doc and got put on meds the moment it dropped into my lungs.
So two weeks of bed, fever, coughing like an SOB, shortness of breath, all of that. But that was it. Now I have a nagging cough, and not much else.

Where did I get it?
I think on the shuttle from the airport to Provo, when I was there for a conference. The other three people were a family coming back from India. This was middle of February. Three days later and I was seriously sick.

Sure, it could have been the flu, but I don't think so. This thing was fast and nasty.

Blogger Akulkis March 13, 2020 5:52 PM  

"Basically, the CDC et al in their efforts to not cause a panic, has hampered the ability to have good information, which is causing the panic. Not that I mind many of the actions now being taken, I just wanted to point out how the government screws up everything it touches. It will also be annoying when the CDC and HHS get expanded budgets to prevent this sort of thing in the future. Proving that the more a bureaucracy screws up (through it's own arrogance) the more money it gets."

There's a reason why the ONLY part of the federal government which has a trust rating of over 50% is the military.

It's primarily because most people are scared of the thought of going to a war zone (I'll admit, I have been nervous about it every time, but I'll do it again), even most of the officers who go into it risk getting killed just for wearing the uniform, and the general public sees military personnel as being underpaid for the oath we take, the promises we make, and the risks we are exposed to and take.

Blogger Avalanche March 13, 2020 5:55 PM  

@7 "millennial ... from mostly-futilely explaining why ... to potentially productive wondering why we employed him."

Don't forget; he has an atrophied amygdala: he really CANNOT see danger signs! You're asking a color-blind person to understand a flashing red light; a deaf person to respond appropriately to a screaming siren. Many of these young folks CANNOT grasp a clear sign of danger.

Which makes them dangerous to everyone else!

Blogger Avalanche March 13, 2020 5:59 PM  

@8 "Where's the worldwide panic buying of treadmills and celery?"

The 12 components of outrage that Sandman (www.psandman.com/articles/risk.htm) suggest need to be dealt with
Voluntary vs. coerced
Natural vs. industrial
Familiar vs. not familiar
Not memorable vs. memorable
Not dreaded vs. dreaded
Chronic vs. catastrophic
Knowable vs. unknowable
Individually controlled vs. controlled by others
Fair vs. unfair
Morally irrelevant vs. morally relevant
Trustworthy sources vs. untrustworthy sources
Responsive process vs. unresponsive process

The dangers for which celery and treadmills are the 'cure' are all left-hand column items -- corona-chan is on the right; and thus causes more fear and anger.

Blogger Jeroth March 13, 2020 6:29 PM  

I think the answer might be a mix of @81 and @93. Trump does seem to dabble in positive thinking, and might believe in animal spirits even more than Keynes, but he always yields to reality if it pushes hard enough.

Blogger Barbarossa March 13, 2020 6:49 PM  

@85 I was more suggesting that he's one of those types to choose a name from a literary work and then Secret King pat himself on the back for his immense subtlety at playing upon the theme of "Who's really sane in these crazy times?" and chuckle softly, softly that the illiterate rubes wouldn't recognize any of it: the name, the work or the theme.

Blogger Yossarian March 13, 2020 6:50 PM  

Avalanche wrote:www.psandman.com/articles/risk.htm

Good read, elucidated some personal stuff for me as well. Looking back I did start exercising regularly after I became aware of the risk factors and consequences of CVD specifically. I guess in my mind it moved it from the left column to the right column.

Interestingly the components also apply to q-people (left) and non-q people (right) in regards to how they see the panic outbreak itself.

Blogger Scuzzaman March 13, 2020 6:56 PM  

Jeroth

I didn’t say that’s what happened.

You asked for a third option, I gave you one.

Blogger Damelon Brinn March 13, 2020 7:02 PM  

Hmmm, could it also be a division tactic?

To divide whom? Americans versus non-Americans? That would be a good thing. As far as Americans go, I only see it bringing people together for a common cause.

Blogger Damelon Brinn March 13, 2020 7:11 PM  

I don't trust the media reports.

I don't either, which is why my first hint that this was a real thing was when I kept seeing the media pushing the "it's tiny compared to the flu" line.

I'm so tired of hearing about the annual flu death count. The flu "kills" a lot of people who just needed a nudge. I had to go to the clinic this week (unrelated), and an older woman came in who must have been pushing 400 pounds. She could barely breathe (though she had enough breath to keep yakking about it) and couldn't stand long enough to check in. It's already a wonder that she's alive, but if she catches the flu and dies, she'll get counted as a flu casualty. That's stupid. But it probably helps them sell flu shots.

Blogger Avalanche March 13, 2020 7:24 PM  

@77 WHO recommends if you want to make your own.

WHO approved:
To make one-third quart of hand sanitizer:
1 cup isopropyl alcohol 99% (or 91% or 70% alcohol)
1 Tablespoon hydrogen peroxide 3%
1 teaspoon glycerin
Water to make a total of 1-1/3 Cup (1/3 quart).

Some PhD recommends:
2/3 cup 99% rubbing (isopropyl) alcohol
1/3 cup 100% pure aloe vera gel
Optional: 8-10 drops essential oil for smell
Bowl and spoon
Funnel
Empty liquid soap or hand sanitizer bottle
Optional: Gloves
Step 1: Mix the rubbing alcohol, aloe vera and optional essential oil in a bowl with a spoon. Be careful to keep pure alcohol away from your skin.
Step 2: Funnel the mixture into the empty bottle. Screw the pump cap back on and voila, you have hand sanitizer.

Blogger Lazarus March 13, 2020 7:26 PM  

Beardy Bear wrote:Can we start calling it the boomer-bug yet? Heaven knows they'll make this about themselves eventually.

The Boomer Blaster

Blogger Doktor Jeep March 13, 2020 7:39 PM  

Local Chik Fil a still has the same crowd it usually has on Friday night.
There is a difference between fear and faith perhaps. Athiests confuse the two.

Blogger Damelon Brinn March 13, 2020 7:40 PM  

I know the head of infectious medicine at the local hospital.... He looks really tired.

Yeah, watch the people who will have to deal with it. Watching Trump's enemies is also useful. With Trump taking this very seriously to the point of shutting down flights, the obvious thing for his enemies to do is to downplay it. Make him look like a fear-monger and accuse him of trying to use a minor outbreak to increase his power.

There's probably some talk like that, but in actions, anti-Trump organizations from Harvard to the NBA are shutting things down. That supports Trump's position, and is costing them a lot of money in the process. There's no way they'd do that if they thought it was likely to blow over easily.

Blogger Slagenthor March 13, 2020 7:45 PM  

@66

Thank you and others for pointing this out: the chart comparison is not Apples-to-Apples.

The first is fatalities to Estimated cases, the second is Fatalities to Confirmed cases.

For influenza, Fatalities to confirmed cases does look more like 8% - 20%.

n.b.: "Just the flu" is a bit of a sore spot for me, as a close family member died from it during the 2018-19 flu season, which was a particularly bad one...upwards of 80,000 deaths by some estimates in the U.S. alone.

So, Apples-to-Apples Fatalities to confirmed cases, Flu is more than twice the mortality of CV-19.

What about Apples-to-Apples Fatalities to Estimated cases?

The rates we see are heavily biased towards China, and Wuhan Hubei in particular...with 60-100K "confirmed cases" depending upon whom you read.

My problem with this:

Wuhan is not a rural chicken farm...it is the capital of Hubei province, and a densely packed metropolitan area of 20 million people in an area a little smaller than New York City, only with worse infrastructure and sanitation (!).

I don't believe for a second that an essentially suprise, unknown Virgin-Field epidemic from a Common-Cold-Family virus with large number of asymptomatic carriers had the run of Wuhan for *weeks* and only infected 0.5% of the population.

Not for a second. Given the demonstrated communicability which appears greater than standard influenza, which normally infects 1% - 10% of populations that are well aware of it every year. It is much more likely that a good estimate of total CV-19 infections in Wuhan alone is 10X to 40x the confirmed cases, say 5% to 20% of the population of Wuhan, or approximately 1 to 4 million people.

On the low end, a conservative estimate of 10X confirmed cases would bring the CV-19 mortalitly rate down to that of standard flu or below.

All that being said, CV-19 is still dangerous to immunocompromised people, with the upper age cohorts still possibly even moreso than Influenza.

So, while CV-19 damn sure isn't the Spanish Flu or the Capatin Trips (yet) There is nothing wrong with taking precautions for the sake of older friends and family.

Likewise: There is also nothing wrong with some easy preparations for the Societal Disruptions that may/will occur even without CV-19 blowing up. My pantry is certainly full along with my magazines, and it didn't cost much at all to top off the pantry.

Blogger Captain Barnacles March 13, 2020 8:15 PM  

“AIDS isn't transmitted by touching a countertop that an infected person touched a day ago. THIS IS.”
They would ask; “So what?”
Are they gonna die because they touched a countertop? Their kids?
Just like with AIDS, many people who are not at serious risk, are being hounded, because the people actually at risk, are people they hate, and don’t naturally care about.
On Pol, some were asking how many of the 65+ demographic would not give a damn if it were the other way around?
How did these people react to Zika? How many groids would care if it only affected whites? How many homos would care if only Christian parents were dropping of AIDS?

“If these snowflakes spent less time in their safe spaces, or not on the X-box, they wouldn’t be dropping like flies.”
It’s not hard to picture.
When so many millennial and even Gen X vets were blowing their brains out, where was the least bit of concern?
Most of the deaths so far in the U.S. are from one nursing home. I’m guessing nasty, hate-filled, bitter people, who didn’t invest enough in their children for them to be willing to care for them.
This the legacy left by boomers.

I don’t disagree with the shutdown; my father is a hero, and I’d be devastated if something happened to him. My kids are excited for the super large Spring Break. I bought a ton of emergency supplies before this thing left China
But this disease is not a universal threat, and it’s being hailed as such. My father is married to a Chinese woman from somewhat near Wuhan. Her father is a little less than my father’s age. My father’s wife’s father has taken it very seriously, and has stated that it’s largely finished there, now. People are more outraged at some of the drastic measures that were taken. His friend’s nephew, his wife, and their two children contracted it and were quarantined. They were only sick for a couple of days, and the kids barely got the sniffles.

The precautions are necessary, as precautions only for most of us. Younger people are naturally going to be skeptical.

It’s in sync with much of what has been posted here, over the last couple of years.
The “official story” is rarely true, and for some of them, Corona-chan is more like a natural “Day of the Pillow,” than the 1918 influenza epidemic.

Blogger Jack Amok March 13, 2020 8:19 PM  

Watching Trump's enemies is also useful.

Yeah, the usual suspects at the press conference today trying to ask Gotcha! questions came off looking really bad. A whole bunch of other reporters were asking semi-relevant (as far as reporters go, anyway) questions of the experts gathered, and it really made the hacks stand out.

The Never Trumpers and Donk-gonners won't notice, but the rest of the country probably does.

Blogger Doktor Jeep March 13, 2020 9:01 PM  

Some observations:
2 days ago the supermarket was normal in such that the shelves were stocked. Today, some oddities. No it was not Mad Max.
Toilet paper was gone. Sort of. The main aisle was cleared out of TP. At the back of the aisle was still TP, the large packs and on sale too. Hardly touched.
I can say the same for dish soap but in reverse: the front of the aisle was cleared, but go down the aisle a few feet away and there was plenty.
This is a kind of mindlessness in action. I suspected it occurs but never actually saw it. I have a nice panic picture of shelves devoid of TP and I could if I wanted post it on the chans and say nothing about the big pile of TP at the end of the aisle. That could be fear porn.
The mindlessness I refer to has my attention because it's possible to hide things in plain site when people are like this. I was waiting for a situation to make observations. Diversions and obfuscation can save you a lot of trouble. In Florida you got people with the generator parked right by the house on a slab and I know people whose idea of prepping is to just throw a switch and keep watching TV. But Islanders tell me, and whites who spent time there concur, there's a level of lawlessness reached where said generator will be gone in 2 minutes. Where will it go? To people who can defend it.
So overall, it's looking like the prep out there is simply self isolation prep. Indeed if you are quarantined you don't want to run out of TP and water - especially for a virus where yellow shit storms are a symptom. And yes the Vitamin C supplements are all gone.
Yeast packets were gone too. I make my own bread. I vaguely recall some mention in survival forums, like back in the 1990s when people were still wearing M65 surplus field jackets and using Makarovs because the east bloc surplus ammo was dirt cheap, that yeast packets would be some kind of commodity. But maybe people are going to be more inclined to make their own bread if they can't go out much.
And that would be a good thing. Bread means more to civilization as a concept than you might suspect. The role of bread in Tolkien's work should not be taken lightly.

Blogger Damelon Brinn March 13, 2020 9:11 PM  

It's also always interesting to see what topics bring a new group of friends to school us about them.

Blogger John Rockwell March 13, 2020 10:08 PM  

This is also a good opportunity for tabletop games like D&D. Campaigns can last for long periods of time.

Even ideal for winter months in Antarctica.

Blogger John Rockwell March 13, 2020 10:10 PM  

@Doktor Jeep

I think potatoes have taken over the role of no.1 staple for many. Not even wheat has the sheer yields per acre and nutrient content of potatoes

Blogger Emmanuel March 13, 2020 11:05 PM  

"Neither pestilence nor war are influenced by your opinion of the reality of their existence."

What reality? The reality of massive amounts of panic creating so many false positives? I'm telling you: a couple months from now, this whole thing is gonna be a big nothing burger and you're gonna feel awfully silly channeling you're inner Alex over the wrong thing to be focusing on.

Blogger Damelon Brinn March 13, 2020 11:11 PM  

@114 Potatoes are also gluten-free and relatively easy to grow, cook, and eat, especially compared to grains. It's potato planting season right now in the temperate part of the US. Get some seed potatoes and cut them into chunks with about 2 eyes each. Spread them out somewhere to dry for a few days so the cut edges can heal a bit. Plant them in rows about 6 inches deep, and hill dirt up around them a couple times as they grow. When the plants die, dig and eat.

If you've never had a fresh potato right out of the garden, you're in for a treat.

Blogger Emmanuel March 13, 2020 11:16 PM  

Even Infowars' own poll on its front page shows that they can't sustain the 'Coronavirus is seriously a serious thing we swear!' narrative.

https://www.infowars.com/


"Is Coronavirus a serious pandemic?

No, overblown fear-mongering (40%, 21,251 Votes)
I don’t know, but I’m prepping just in case (28%, 14,867 Votes)
Yes, everyone should prepare ASAP (24%, 12,655 Votes)
I don’t know, but I’m doing nothing to prepare (8%, 4,472 Votes)"

Blogger RedJack March 13, 2020 11:28 PM  

J Van Stry wrote:I think there are a lot more cases out there than reported. I'm starting to suspect that the flu I had in February, was this, and not the normal flu, as I had all of the symptoms.

But as testing is pretty much non-existent in the US for anyone not famous, I have no idea.
Remember all the vaping deaths? The bad viral bronchial bug? This sucker has been here, and may have started here. To be honest I wonder if I had it also. That may be why the CDC doesn't want to do testing. If half the US shows up positive, it will be awkward to explain.

Blogger JamesB.BKK March 14, 2020 12:06 AM  

who didn’t invest enough in their children for them to be willing to care for them.

Alternatives are that they raised bratty children, were and are progressive Obama-voting or Churchian nags their children don't want to be around that much, or don't wish to in their minds burden their children (or more typically one child).

Nonetheless, the children of boomers didn't finance the building and operation of all those old age homes, unless they are employed in the finance bidness or govt. Why govt? Are the bonds typically tax exempt? Why, yes. Yes they are. So get built and operated these facilities will. Some are nicer than the house or apartment of an offspring. Much nicer. So: much of the potential inheritance that wouldn't historically get gobbled up by estate taxes, goes to high end housing instead of the offspring. But as with most of the worst things in the US, the parents and grandparents of boomers gave us that product and associated tax-related cost/lowering government intervention.

Blogger JamesB.BKK March 14, 2020 12:21 AM  

A fair summation? : You may not be interested in the Corona, but the Corona is interested in you. Nah. Prolly dumb.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash March 14, 2020 2:10 AM  

Emmanuel wrote:What reality? The reality of massive amounts of panic creating so many false positives? I'm telling you: a couple months from now, this whole thing is gonna be a big nothing burger and you're gonna feel awfully silly channeling you're inner Alex over the wrong thing to be focusing on.
Be careful not to cut yourself on all that edge.

Blogger Jack Amok March 14, 2020 2:37 AM  

I'm telling you: a couple months from now, this whole thing is gonna be a big nothing burger and you're gonna feel awfully silly ...

Seen on Facebook: "In a few months, if we look back and think we overreacted, we did the right thing. If we look back and don't think we overreacted, we really screwed up."

Blogger Zander Stander March 14, 2020 3:45 AM  

When a semblance of normality returns and we are not in a post-apocalyptic wasteland, the consensus will be that we beat the virus due to the control measures. This scenario is indistinguishable from one where there was no virus to begin with. Therefore the claim that there is/is ot a virus is unfalsifiable.

Blogger Akulkis March 14, 2020 5:45 AM  

"This is as much fear porn as Aids was.

Everyone was told to worry when only fags and drug addicts (and those who slept with them) were at risk."

And we all KNEW that was bogus because they refused to shut down the bathhouses in San Fransisco where it all originated. Plus nobody ever explained a credible Female => Male transmission mechanism outside of heroin users sharing needles.

Blogger Akulkis March 14, 2020 6:09 AM  

Another benefit to all of this:

With schools (both K-12 and colleges) switching over to tele-teaching, and lots of parents being told to stay at home from work, parents are finally going to get to see, first hand, how badly rotted out the education system is at all levels.

Expect tenure to be totally abolished in the K-12 schools due to parental pressure. Why was tenure even made a think in K-12? It's not like those teachers are doing cutting edge research which might be controversial -- they're supposed to be teaching basic skills and civics for getting through life, plus some optional college preparation-type stuff.) Also expect that once parents see "Common Core" first-hand, especially the idiocy of common core math, expect a suddenly renewed effort to abolish it, and MUCH more energized than it was the first time (even the lame brain teachers recognize the common core curriculum as being retarded). Speaking of such, Betsy DeVos has long been an opponent of Common Core, and she's the Secretary of Education -- why hasn't she abolished it already? She's declared it "dead" but the regulations are still in place. And it's supposedly been usurped by the Every Student Succeeds Act, which is obviously a bunch of wishful thinking, and some sort of rationalization for continuing with the de facto policy of social-promotion for the dumb kids who should be made to repeat a grade because they're failing.

There's nothing wrong with holding a kid back. My cousin was born very close to the back-end of the dividing line between which year he would enter school. By 2nd or 3rd grade, it became obvious that he should have started a year later than when he did. The school system (one of the best in Michigan at that time, in the 1970s) wanted to promote him to the next grade, but my aunt insisted that he be held back and repeat the grade so that he would enter the next grade actually knowing what he was supposed to know, and understanding what he was supposed to understand. And it all turned out well for him. He went from struggling that one year, to be successful the rest of his time in school, and studied Mechanical Design at Eastern Michigan.

Blogger Akulkis March 14, 2020 6:20 AM  

@70

"CVD kills almost 18 million per year with 422 million cases.
COVID-19 has a death rate of <4% and is currently sitting at 5000 deaths with only 9 months to go. Therefore your boi needs on average >1.5 million infections per day to reach a close tie. Will he pull it off?"

After how much effort to stop its spread?

If we reacted like we have to flu, the historical numbers would be far lower.

You're not comparing apples to apples.

Blogger Akulkis March 14, 2020 6:22 AM  

@70

"Just for the sake of planning, may I suggest: "The Retard Yossarian, Who Is Retarded?""

I vote for Retard McRetardface

Blogger Akulkis March 14, 2020 6:28 AM  

@77
"In December, I had physical contact with 3 of my employees from around Beijing. Days later, I got really sick and the doctor said I had the flu. I'm sure (I guess, right?), that it wasn't the Wu Flu, but by early to mid Jan I had developed a prolonged case of bronchitis and by the beginning of Feb, I had pneumonia. I am STILL fighting off all the effects of being very, very sick for approx 3 mos altogether."

This is a perfect example of how deadly serious even "just the flu" can be.
Flu + Bronchitis usually proceeds to pneumonia, which in those who are in the later decades in life is quite effective at killing, even without a history of smoking.

Flu does a serious number on the lungs, even the young and healthy in their 20s.

Blogger Akulkis March 14, 2020 6:32 AM  

@79

"It's severe autism, right?
Because you obviously are missing major cues that would make you think this response was a good idea."

Nah. I know a couple people with autism. Autists are "overly logical" and they're taking this very seriously
.
In contrast, this Yossarian yahoo is comparing it to non-transmissible lifestyle diseases which stem from eating habits, and completely ignoring the many videos leaked out of China of people, even in their 20's, collapsing in the street.

Blogger Akulkis March 14, 2020 6:50 AM  

"Trump does seem to dabble in positive thinking, and might believe in animal spirits even more than Keynes,"

That's just basic, solid leadership skills.
Even in the darkest hour, a good leader has to exhibit SOME degree of confidence, because "ok, everybody panic!" is the direct opposite of leadership.

Even if you don't have a plan at the moment, it's necessary for a leader to provide some direction and recognition of the seriousness of the situation ("OK... every body here? Good.
I don't need to explain that we're not in the best of circumstances. Hold tight, don't expend any resources unless its necessary, prepare and be ready for surprises from [the threat]. Take care of yourselves and each other while [my staff/advisors/officers] and I work out the details of how we're going to get all of us through this."

This basic structure works for anything from a workplace crisis to civilization-impacting natural disaster to being surrounded by enemy military forces.

Blogger Akulkis March 14, 2020 7:07 AM  

"This is also a good opportunity for tabletop games like D&D. Campaigns can last for long periods of time."

I think historical and near-future-hypothetical wargaming is more useful. D&D and such are saturated with fantasy, and thus lessons learned are of limited value in the real world.

And yes, most every game IS also a teaching instrument (whether intended to be, or not).

Good game rules teach skills that work in the real world. Bad game rules teach skills that fail in the real world.

Blogger Damelon Brinn March 14, 2020 7:14 AM  

channeling you're inner Alex

It's tough when you're trying to sneer down at lesser minds and trip over your grammatical dick like that.

Blogger Akulkis March 14, 2020 7:17 AM  

What reality? The reality of massive amounts of panic creating so many false positives? I'm telling you: a couple months from now, this whole thing is gonna be a big nothing burger"

ONLY because of the measures to make sure it STAYS a nothingburger.

Have you already forgotten the videos leaked out of China via VPNs... people collapsing in the street. Hospitals with the hallways full of people seeking treatment... amongst the corpses laying in the same hallways, which hadn't been moved due to the basement morgue already being full?

You're telling us that the Chinese shut down their entire manufacturing-for-export economy, and made the ENTIRE FIRST WORLD RECONSIDER Global Supply Chains and most especially SOLE-SOURCING FROM CHINA over a nothingburger?

Really?

You think the Chinese Communist Party is that retarded -- when they're so attentive that they made a US video game producer pull a prize from a tournament champion because the guy made an oblique reference to Hong Kong? A country that is SO obsessed with their image to the rest of the world, would DELIBERATELY sabotage all of that, and jeopardize their long term economy (and nobody things "long term" like the Chinese), all fo a nothingburger hoax?

You, my friend, are either in deep, DEEP, wearing blindfolds with a black velvet bag over your head denial, or you're dumber than a box of rocks.

All you need to know about the danger this brings is to look at what happened in China.

And if you say that's all fake, you deserve to be beaten to death with a hammer.

Blogger Akulkis March 14, 2020 7:18 AM  

What reality? The reality of massive amounts of panic creating so many false positives? I'm telling you: a couple months from now, this whole thing is gonna be a big nothing burger"

ONLY because of the measures to make sure it STAYS a nothingburger.

Have you already forgotten the videos leaked out of China via VPNs... people collapsing in the street. Hospitals with the hallways full of people seeking treatment... amongst the corpses laying in the same hallways, which hadn't been moved due to the basement morgue already being full?

You're telling us that the Chinese shut down their entire manufacturing-for-export economy, and made the ENTIRE FIRST WORLD RECONSIDER Global Supply Chains and most especially SOLE-SOURCING FROM CHINA over a nothingburger?

Really?

You think the Chinese Communist Party is that retarded -- when they're so attentive that they made a US video game producer pull a prize from a tournament champion because the guy made an oblique reference to Hong Kong? A country that is SO obsessed with their image to the rest of the world, would DELIBERATELY sabotage all of that, and jeopardize their long term economy (and nobody things "long term" like the Chinese), all fo a nothingburger hoax?

You, my friend, are either in deep, DEEP, wearing blindfolds with a black velvet bag over your head denial, or you're dumber than a box of rocks.

All you need to know about the danger this brings is to look at what happened in China.

And if you say that's all fake, you deserve to be beaten to death with a hammer, starting at your toes.

Blogger Akulkis March 14, 2020 7:25 AM  

"Potatoes are also gluten-free"

So freakin' what?

Gluten is a nutritious protein.

10 years ago, NOBODY cared if a food item in it had gluten in it or not. "Gluten-Free" is a fad. I've talked to people buying gluten-free versions of stuff, and asked them why they were buying the gluten-free version.

"It's healthier!"

Actually, unless you've had 2/3 of your intestines removed, no, gluten-free anything is NOT healthier for you -- all else being equal, it's less nutritious.

This is just another STUPID movement, like "no fat" foods for people trying to lose weight.

Hint, the less fat in your diet, the more calories you're going to consume because you're hungry more. and "no fat" foods have a LOT of calories in the form of carbohydrates, which spike your insulin levels, making you hungry again. In direct contrast, fats make you feel full and satisfied.

Fats and proteins satisfy your appetite.
Carbohydrates make you hungry again.

Guess WHO benefits from "no-fat" foods.
Hint: It's NOT the person buying and eating them.

Ditto for No-gluten foods. Less protein with those carbs ==> you're less sated, so you eat more.

Blogger Joe March 14, 2020 11:31 AM  

Researchers in Hong Kong are reporting that some COVID-19 survivors are suffering a 20-30% permanent reduction to lung capacity.

"Lung scans of nine infected patients at the hospital suggested they had suffered organ damage.

But Tsang said it had yet to be determined whether they would develop pulmonary fibrosis, a condition in which lung tissue hardened and the organ could not function correctly."


https://nypost.com/2020/03/13/coronavirus-survivors-may-suffer-from-reduced-lung-function/

https://www.the-sun.com/news/536172/coronavirus-survivors-reduced-lung-function/

Blogger Avalanche March 14, 2020 3:44 PM  

@115 "a couple months from now, this whole thing is gonna be a big nothing burger and you're gonna feel awfully silly channeling you're inner Alex over the wrong thing to be focusing on."

There writes the guy with no apparent experience in actual disasters/dangers. NO shore-side dweller has EVER said, after a hurricane turned away from his house and landed somewhere up to coast or blew out to sea: "gee, I feel awfully silly for boarding up my windows when that hurricane was bearing down on my house! I was focusing on the wrong thing!"

NOT ever! Preparing for what may very well BE an oncoming Cat 5 hurricane is WISDOM, not silliness!
Pooh-poohing entirely legit preps for a potential disaster that is bearing down and MAY land on your "house" is the silliness!

Blogger Avalanche March 14, 2020 3:51 PM  

@133 "And if you say that's all fake, you deserve to be beaten to death with a hammer"

NOT sourced from China! (Prolly fall apart before you were done!)

Blogger Avalanche March 14, 2020 3:56 PM  

@136 "Researchers in Hong Kong are reporting that some COVID-19 survivors are suffering a 20-30% permanent reduction to lung capacity.
"Lung scans of nine infected patients at the hospital suggested they had suffered organ damage."

This assumes S that these folks did not already have reduced lung function before CoVid.

Reminds me of the wailing and whining by folks who had lasik eye surgery, and complained afterwards that they "saw halos around street lights!" Not ONE of them had ever checked before surgery to see if they saw the halos. Surgery only "added" their attention to how things looked after.

Blogger Starving_bear March 15, 2020 10:55 AM  

I'm not discounting fear porn theory yet. A provable fact in the US is the media use of the word confirmed is false. Test kits here were recalled because labs were getting false positives from clean sample tests. The h1n1 tests in the past had a similar issue and could only allegedly detect cold and flu without distinguishing beyond. Potentially we are operating on too much bad data to know what's going on. The numbers could be shining a light on what was already going on. That's how it looks here but it's good to be able to hear perspective from Europe and compare. Doing the same preparations either way but am interested to figure out what's up. I know someone in canada that tested positive now and they are healthy so far but I'll update if it changes. They were told to stay at home for 14 days

Blogger Unknown March 15, 2020 5:18 PM  

Of the 4,968 deaths from COVID-19, 3,200 of those cases are in CHINA, while 63 of those cases are in the USA.

Blogger John Bradley March 16, 2020 3:56 AM  

testing something... please delete

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