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Thursday, March 12, 2020

Why slowing the transmission rate matters

An epidemial modeling explains why it is hugely beneficial to slow the rate of viral transmission even if the entire population gets infected, based on the Chinese numbers:
Total population 327 million, with a single initiating infection. 12 day course of disease, initial R0 of 3.5 (as per the stats from China that Steve linked.) Assume 5% of cases are critical, 2% of those critical cases die with ICU care, 5% with general hospital care, and 50% with no care. 90,000 available ICU beds and 900,000 available hospital beds.

Run this model through to completion and it sweeps through the population in about a year, infecting most everyone (less about 9 million who escape), killing 5.4 million.

Now, suppose we impose infection controls on day 80, right about when there’s 1000 deaths from this thing. And then we vary how strong those controls are: from 0.35 (what the Chinese managed) up to nothing at all.

Here we see how the # of deaths varies with the strength of our controls. If we impose Chinese-style controls, we get away with only 5K deaths, or 1000-fold fewer than without the controls. But the inflection point isn’t just at 1.0. In particular if we can get the R0 below about 1.5 that gets us down under 500K, or a 10-fold reduction. At 1.0 we get down to about 50K.
And this is why it is best to leave the opinionating on these matters to those who are, at the very least, statistically numerate. Don't be like the NBA idiot who, in his clueless effort to demonstrate his brave lack of concern over corona-chan, went out of his way to touch all of the media's microphones and promptly contracted the virus.

It costs very little to alter your day-to-day life for a few weeks, so why take even a low risk of putting yourself through the experience, even if it is nothing more than a bad flu. If you don't suck on the runny noses of strangers on the bus just to prove you're not afraid of the flu, why would you feel any need to avoid taking a few simple steps to avoid altering your routine now?

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72 Comments:

Blogger JACIII March 12, 2020 7:20 AM  

May the desire of leftists to prove their anti racist wokeness overtake them.

Blogger Silly but True March 12, 2020 7:22 AM  

“You must have sex with transwomen or the Coronavirus has won. Are you a bigot?”

Blogger Cataline Sergius March 12, 2020 7:31 AM  

Slowing it down until summer is a good idea. A very good idea.

This Corvid doesn't do well in high UV light.

Look at Africa

It's usually the hardest hit whenever there is a new plague in town.

This time it's comparatively unscratched, as of this writing 100 reported cases and only 1 death in Africa.

Blogger Cataline Sergius March 12, 2020 7:35 AM  

I think what does need to happen now is to shutdown the cruiseline industry.

Those things are floating petri dishes containing people with the highest risk factors.

Blogger ZhukovG March 12, 2020 7:36 AM  

Yes, exactly. Even if we all eventually get to hang out with Corona-Chan, keeping medical services from being overwhelmed will dramatically increase our survival rate.

Blogger spacehabitats March 12, 2020 7:36 AM  

Yeah, if I weren't an ER physician I would be happy to take your advice. As it is (and as a boomer) I will be putting my life at risk every other day for the next few months.
You're welcome.

Blogger Azure Amaranthine March 12, 2020 7:38 AM  

Yes, finally. People keep rapping on Chinese hospitals without realizing that it's the capacity that is of more concern than the quality, and by ratio we don't have superiority in that regard to be laughing.

When you come down with the hard pneumonic effects and the hospitals are full, it doesn't matter if the mortality rate ought to be 0.15% or something, you're screwed at a 96th percentile. Why do people think China was going so hard on building emergency hospital space?

Blogger VD March 12, 2020 7:49 AM  

I will be putting my life at risk every other day for the next few months.

First, thank you. And second, good luck.... Too many people tend to forget that health care workers are not indestructible machines, but front line soldiers taking the highest degree of risk.

Blogger Arthur Isaac March 12, 2020 8:06 AM  

@Azure, capacity and quarantine. You don't want to turn the ER and maternity wards into COVID19 ICUs.

@Spacehabits,hopefully they stand up a whole lot of folks for intubation and vent monitoring and we start getting more robust screening.

Blogger Coffee Man March 12, 2020 8:15 AM  

As an EMT. we are being provided up to the minute status on the Corovid virus. Scared? No. Concerned for my families safety? Yes. willing to lock myself in a cave until this blows over? No. Do what I must do? Yes.

Blogger Daniele Grech Pereira March 12, 2020 8:25 AM  

This is the gayest pandemic that I have yet lived through! I have plane tickets to Italy for the end of April, and I'm not even worried.

Blogger Lazarus March 12, 2020 8:30 AM  

This excerpt from the article does not sound very reassuring:

...if you get R0 to exactly 1.0 you have to keep those infection controls in place for ~5 years or else you’ll be back up close to 5million dead again.

5 years?

Blogger Cataline Sergius March 12, 2020 8:49 AM  

I'm not expecting "The Fall" not just yet anyway.

But I am starting to lay-in things like powdered eggs, powdered cream and powdered milk, just in case there is a lock down.

@Vox how is life being affected in your neck of the woods?

Blogger Homesteader March 12, 2020 8:51 AM  

I work in 2 hospitals, one in the ER.

I am working on the assumption I am already infected. I am self-isolating as much as possible.

I am taking hi dose D3 and C, as well as echinacea, and a few others.

We who do this, chose to, knowing the risks.

Now is when we actually get to really serve. My time in the Gulf was less risky.

(And no, I've no martyr complex. I'd as soon this day never came.)

But, we will all suffer, these next few months. My heart goes out to the ones who will lose loved ones.

I pray all of you make it through unscathed.

Blogger Johnny March 12, 2020 9:00 AM  

It isn't settled completely, but Chinese are thought to be more susceptible by genetics, and the men are often smokers. The combination has lead to a high body count in China. And for some reason the data out of Italy is worse than other places. Perhaps Italy has a more deadly strain of the stuff?

Early reporting makes it look worse than it is because people recover more slowly than they die, upping the apparent body count. And lightly infected people may not get reported, also making it look worse. Outside Italy and China, the most optimistic numbers that still seem credible are 3% get pneumonia that requires hospitalization, 1% die if quality care is available. At least ten times more deadly than an ordinary flu.

If it can only be slowed but not stopped with quarantine, then what will shut it down is the population wide immunity that arises from the previously sick being immune. Merkel to the north announced the expectation that 60% or more of the Germans will get it. In the absence of a Chinese style severe quarantine, a reasonable estimate.

Death is strongly linked with age and condition. People who are 60 years old or younger and in good health are only slightly at risk. Perhaps this group should not worry the quarantine beyond spreading it to others. And even younger is even better. 80 plus or with serious lung issues, not quite a death sentence, but close to it.

The face mask thing is alleged to be of little benefit. The big deal is spreading through mechanical contact through the hands. Frequent hand washing is recommended, and diligently avoid touching your nose or mouth with your hands. The stuff is actually a lung infection.

Blogger Manuel March 12, 2020 9:18 AM  

Sailer posted about the same topic the other day: https://www.takimag.com/article/crushing-the-coronavirus-curve/

Blogger Balkan Yankee March 12, 2020 9:19 AM  

Please don't make me work from home. /s

Blogger Brett baker March 12, 2020 9:23 AM  

But they're Boomers.

Blogger Andy'scurious March 12, 2020 9:31 AM  

Grateful for your prayers and I'm returning the favor .
God bless you in your vocation and efforts .

Anonymous Anonymous March 12, 2020 9:32 AM  

A cousin of a friend is a nurse in Bergamo, Lombardy in the center of the outbreak. She has the virus. She self-isolated at home as long as she could, but is now hospitalized with pneumonia. She's in her 50s, so they must have judged her chances as still good. Otherwise they would have given her place to someone else.

Prayers for all doctors, nurses, and patients.

Blogger SmithGregoryREC420R March 12, 2020 9:42 AM  

Owen used to say if I'm wrong so what!? Well if he's wrong and he's constantly told people to not prepare or wash hands his followers deaths are on him. What a jack ass.

Blogger notjoshing March 12, 2020 9:48 AM  

An aside on the modeling: Python has some great statistical packages. What the language lacks when compared to R, Matlab, or Julia, it more than makes up for with the simplicity of putting together something relatively simple such as this (Yes, Julia would be similarly easy, but the userbase for Python is so much broader that it's easier to get up to speed on the language.).

Blogger bodenlose Schweinerei March 12, 2020 10:01 AM  

How does this dovetail with a world economy already entering its latest death spiral? Fed can-kicking in the repo market has already stopped working, no matter how many hundreds of billions they dump in it, and Peter Pan Kuroda keeps making things worse by fighting the last war with the same strategy that lost it the last 20 times.

Perhaps such concerns seem mercenary at the moment, but a combination credit crunch/corona clampdown will make suffering "for these next few months" look wildly optimistic. What if those shelves don't magically start refilling in June?

Blogger Kraemer March 12, 2020 10:14 AM  

Some of them are already banned from going into any of their intended ports, which is just Karma imho

Blogger L March 12, 2020 10:15 AM  

From the final figure, it looks to me like R0 = 3.5, 1.5 and 0.5 are all better than R0 = 0.95, 1.0 or 1.1. Is that correct or are the colors mismatched to the lines? Maybe I just misunderstood the article.

Blogger bodenlose Schweinerei March 12, 2020 10:17 AM  

“You must have sex with transwomen or the Coronavirus has won. Are you a bigot?”

You know what will be decried as "racism"? When the already abysmal state of inner city medical care becomes glaringly obvious to even the "good schools" SWPL morons. If you thought busing for schools was bad, wait until they start busing for hospital beds.

Blogger Yossarian March 12, 2020 10:17 AM  

We've made it through the HIV epidemic, the mad-cow disease, the bird-flu, and the swine-flu.
We've got the government, academia, world-wide mass media, and google-academics watching over us.
We've got this.

Onward to glory!

Blogger rycamor March 12, 2020 10:20 AM  

VD wrote:I will be putting my life at risk every other day for the next few months.

First, thank you. And second, good luck.... Too many people tend to forget that health care workers are not indestructible machines, but front line soldiers taking the highest degree of risk.


That's an excellent point. And all the people out there blustering about how "it's just the flu" and "I ain't afraid of no virus" should be flogged simply for putting healthcare workers at such risk. Even IF it were no worse than the common flu, if millions of people get it at once, it will be mayhem. And this thing has potential to infect billions within the coming year if not checked.

Blogger notjoshing March 12, 2020 10:31 AM  

We should be shutting down all international travel, not just to Europe. Domestically, quick and dirty PCR test should be broadly implemented as a first pass screen; it's cheap and won't pick up recovering patients, as the antibody test does, but it would broaden the screening net. An individual test runs in the 10-25 cent range, plus the cost of administering (swabbing inside the nose) and processing the test. That test processing is automatable; it would not surprise me to see broad rollouts of devices intended to allow for regular screening, initially for coronachan, later for other illnesses.

Blogger VD March 12, 2020 10:42 AM  

Well if he's wrong and he's constantly told people to not prepare or wash hands his followers deaths are on him. What a jack ass.

First, I very much doubt Owen has ever told anyone to not wash their hands. He has a little farm, which means he is washing his hands all the time. Second, Owen's self-sufficient situation is very different than the average individual living in a city or suburb. Third, if you take health care advice from a comedian, the onus is on you, not on the comedian.

Blogger Matrick March 12, 2020 10:49 AM  

"A cousin of a friend is a nurse in Bergamo, Lombardy in the center of the outbreak. She has the virus. She self-isolated at home as long as she could, but is now hospitalized with pneumonia. She's in her 50s, so they must have judged her chances as still good. Otherwise they would have given her place to someone else."
I imagine they would be making beds available for healthcare workers.

And rycamore makes an excellent point. Healthcare workers are being put to additional risk by underestimating the severity of the outbreak. I'm actually surprised that every doctor and nurse hasn't come down with it in the hospitals dealing with this.

Blogger Calvin809 March 12, 2020 10:50 AM  

There are quite a few teachers going on Cruises next week who work at my wife's school. Except for buying up all of the toilet paper everywhere, no one that I have heard talking about it in public seems to think it's a big deal.

Blogger SmithGregoryREC420R March 12, 2020 10:55 AM  

He's made fun of people for washing their hands in fear of this. Yeah all true on everything else.

Blogger Tino March 12, 2020 11:18 AM  

Well, the Lombard regional health system is strained to 200% utilization as of 2 days ago from boots on the ground. I am told they have managed to intubate almost everyone who needed mechanical ventilation, but if they arrest, it is an automatic DNR. My understanding is China is air lifting 1000 ventilators to Milan and Rome for distribution.

Blogger VD March 12, 2020 11:20 AM  

He's made fun of people for washing their hands in fear of this.

I very much disagree with that, but mostly because I would never want to get in the way of people washing their hands. Or showering, for that matter. Most people don't do enough of either, in my opinion.

Blogger bodenlose Schweinerei March 12, 2020 11:32 AM  

I would never want to get in the way of people washing their hands. Or showering, for that matter. Most people don't do enough of either, in my opinion.

Washing your hands often and not coughing on people would be the very basics of public health, and so many people already find these simple tasks too burdensome. We can expect at best a momentary improvement, but in most people, it'll last maybe a week.

Blogger rumpole5 March 12, 2020 11:35 AM  

I just pray that the idiot left wingers don't decide that the Covid-19 virus should have civil rights, as they did with the HIV virus. We lost a generation of very talented (if troubled) people to that plague. If we would just suspend all but the most essential travel for about a month, it would die out as the infected pockets recover and become immune, and get us into warm weather wherein the corona type virus tends to subside. I remember that my own very serious double bout with the 1970s Hong Kong flu dissipated immediately when the warm spring weather commenced.

Blogger Arthur Isaac March 12, 2020 11:38 AM  

The hick Luddite routine needs to go away. I'm doing my best not to blackpill. One of the ways to help ease the panic of the impending stampedes is to keep a level head and do right. I've got coworkers and family who are barely hanging in there with fear. I'll use some gallows humor but I certainly hope that we step up together to flatten out that R0 by raising awareness calmly, firmly, and seriously. I think mockery is in order for the "it's just a flu bro" clan. They are going to make the panic worse by setting up unrealistic expectations.

Blogger Jeroth March 12, 2020 11:50 AM  

VD wrote:First, thank you. And second, good luck.... Too many people tend to forget that health care workers are not indestructible machines, but front line soldiers taking the highest degree of risk.

Makes me wonder how many Laquishas working in health care will take a lunch break and never come back if this starts getting serious.

Blogger Tom Bridgeland March 12, 2020 11:54 AM  

Consider that the very same measures that will slow corona will also slow flu and most other communicable diseases. So the jerks who say it isn't as bad as flu, with its 40K deaths per year, are not thinking. Isolation will work on Both flu and corona. And colds, RSV, measles etc. Maybe we should have a isolation Jubilee every year for a week or two.

Blogger Crew March 12, 2020 12:17 PM  

90,000 available ICU beds and 900,000 available hospital beds.

There's the mistake. At any point in time in the US occupancy of those ICU and hospital beds is more than 80%.

So, as the Italians are finding, you very quickly have to decide who you are going to treat.

Blogger Rakshasa March 12, 2020 12:38 PM  

The WHO chief announced that 'we' may call it a pandemic.

New policy that they won't be declaring pandemics, instead just advising nations and some other crap.

No need to pay out $300 million in insurance bonds that would go towards helping poor countries deal with this, instead allowing rich grabblers to grabble more money from us.

Every day I realize more and more that Uncle was right.

Blogger Akulkis March 12, 2020 1:10 PM  

> The WHO chief announced that 'we' may call it a pandemic.

Interesting. He declared it a pandemic yesterday. He Must have had a visit from some of the Pandemic Bond holders.

Blogger DeepThought March 12, 2020 1:19 PM  

I see Italy with massive infection rates and Greece and Turkey with almost no infections.

Your thoughts?

Blogger DeepThought March 12, 2020 1:21 PM  

Owen has never told anyone to not wash their hands. What he has said is not to not let fear run your life.

Blogger Revelation Means Hope March 12, 2020 1:22 PM  

Yet that is exactly our plan. Most births can be safely done at home. You won't get the usual pain meds that turn a life changing pain event into a minor medical procedure, but you and your baby will be okay.

The 38 year old who can't breathe because his lungs don't work anymore doesn't have much choice.

But we are trying to avoid mixing labor and delivery with Covid 19 patients.

Blogger Revelation Means Hope March 12, 2020 1:26 PM  

Wearing even a flimsy face mask stops you from touching your own nose and mouth. Whether it stops air droplets or not, most people have NO idea how much they touch their face until they can't do it so easily.

Blogger KPKinSunnyPhiladelphia March 12, 2020 1:31 PM  

L wrote:From the final figure, it looks to me like R0 = 3.5, 1.5 and 0.5 are all better than R0 = 0.95, 1.0 or 1.1. Is that correct or are the colors mismatched to the lines? Maybe I just misunderstood the article.


At the higher R naughts, the virus sweeps through the population fast, the health care system ges overloaded, and a large percentage of people die, but the epidemic is over more quickly. This is what has been happening in Italy.

Even at lower R naughts, the virus is still hanging out, and will last longer. This "flattening the curve" -- fewer cases over a longer period of time. The health care system will not break, but more people will get infected.

A semi-successful vaccine will change the dynamic, depending on when it is available.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash March 12, 2020 1:38 PM  

DeepThought wrote:I see Italy with massive infection rates and Greece and Turkey with almost no infections.
numbers have to be collected before they can be reported. I would be surprised if Turkey had the means to test more than a few people. And even when the numbers are collected, you have to be able to trust the government.
My co-workers in Ukraine have no idea of how many people there have the virus because 1) no testing and 2) nobody in Ukraine goes to the hospital except for ethnic Russians and people in car wrecks.

Blogger Rakshasa March 12, 2020 1:39 PM  

No he didn't, watch the announcement he says 'characterize' not 'declare'.

And there's a BBC article where they say the WHO no longer declares pandemics.

Blogger Kill Bill March 12, 2020 1:54 PM  

"Too many people tend to forget that health care workers are not indestructible machines, but front line soldiers taking the highest degree of risk."

And don't forget the janitors...

Blogger furor kek tonicus ( The Surprised Pig hadn't had any idea he tasted this good ) March 12, 2020 2:03 PM  

47. Revelation Means Hope March 12, 2020 1:26 PM
most people have NO idea how much they touch their face until they can't do it so easily.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aBiz7sQvzWI

how to pronounce b-anal.

Blogger Revelation Means Hope March 12, 2020 2:14 PM  

Already happening with our filipinas and latinas. Union already causing trouble. Despicable behaviour.

But most staff are seriously dedicated. A little emotional and uneducated. But dedicated.

Blogger Revelation Means Hope March 12, 2020 2:24 PM  

That's a funny video.

Also fun to watch someone teaching how to prep food and the importance of not touching things and then proceeding to touch all kinds of things besides the food.

Blogger Crew March 12, 2020 3:05 PM  

At the higher R naughts, the virus sweeps through the population fast, the health care system ges overloaded, and a large percentage of people die, but the epidemic is over more quickly. This is what has been happening in Italy.

The important point here is that the R0 is not just a property of the virus but a property of the Virus and its target's behavior.

That is, we can reduce the effective R0 of the virus by changing our behavior, or at least some of us can.

Blogger Azimus March 12, 2020 6:20 PM  

If I owned a bar, I'd invite any healthcare worken in for 2 free drinks after their shift until this is over - one to wind down, and one to "burn out the virus." I would not offer them corona.

Blogger Lazarus March 12, 2020 7:22 PM  

According to CDC , proper handwashing is more effective than hand sanitizer.

Blogger Crew March 12, 2020 8:21 PM  

@57: Homeless and vibrants hardest hit.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd March 12, 2020 10:15 PM  

Jeroth wrote:Makes me wonder how many Laquishas working in health care will take a lunch break and never come back if this starts getting serious.
Revelation Means Hope wrote:Already happening with our filipinas and latinas.
Hard to blame them. We aren't their people; why should they take a risk for Others?

Remember the White Man's Burden? That burden was a foolish, self-destructive concern for Others. Our darker cousins don't have that burden.

Blogger BriarRabbit March 12, 2020 11:03 PM  

He hasn't told anyone to not prepare or not wash their hands. Your statement is a lie.

What he HAS said is what is worse than the virus is fear. That is true.

Blogger Crew March 12, 2020 11:29 PM  

Latest news is that Justin Castro-Trudeau's wife has the virus.

Maybe now he will know how betrayed ordinary Canadians feel.

Blogger Krum March 13, 2020 12:23 AM  

>If you don't suck on the runny noses of strangers on the bus

Eurggh. That made me gag. Thanks.

Blogger TheMaleRei March 13, 2020 12:30 AM  

I wonder how many possible Corona carriers Erdoğan is trying to shove into Greece.

"If I can't make Greece and all the rest part of the Neu-Ottoman Empire, I'll just fill it with plague bearers!"

Blogger Akulkis March 13, 2020 12:44 AM  

"Maybe now he will know how betrayed ordinary Canadians feel."

I'm sure that homo Justin is just as much concerned about his beard's dalliances as homo Bill Clinton is worried about lesbian Hillary's affairs.

Blogger Sam Gem March 13, 2020 1:26 AM  

The false positive results for COVID19 are over 80% according to this study published in a medical journal.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32133832?fbclid=IwAR3KtTRFTp9eb0aA-8ThVONEMGeGhecOnjMJtIblbClp8ufahx71HOFSWdg

Blogger Kiwi March 13, 2020 4:33 AM  

Why not alter your routine?

A lot of people don't care about others, eg who cares if some old person dies that I don't know, and a lot of people are ignorant, eg they don't know how many beds are available, or what it means to the economy if shops shut, or even where the products come from.

To get them to conform you'd need to scare them real bad or herd them into quarantine like stock. The latter would be easier.

Blogger xavier March 13, 2020 6:28 AM  

The pandemic has 2 positives

1) it underscores the imprudence of deindustralizing entire regions for cheaper bad quality products from outside.
2) a radical reevaluation of work and a return to localism.

Blogger OneWingedShark March 13, 2020 9:25 AM  

spacehabitats wrote:Yeah, if I weren't an ER physician I would be happy to take your advice. As it is (and as a boomer) I will be putting my life at risk every other day for the next few months.
You're welcome.

There's some interesting & good results in intravenous Vitamin C; Vitamin C is interesting for two reasons: (1) humans are one of the few mammals that cannot produce it, and (2) it kinda hard to overdose on it.
I've also heard that a stepped megadose/lesser-megadose of Vitamin D has a "50/50 chance" of knocking it out.
While these might not be your best bet, they are fairly inexpensive and decently effective.

Lazarus wrote:This excerpt from the article does not sound very reassuring:
…if you get R0 to exactly 1.0 you have to keep those infection controls in place for ~5 years or else you’ll be back up close to 5million dead again.
5 years?

Makes sense to me: at an R0 of 1.0 it's like a game of tag being played out where "it" skims through the general population; at R0 greater than 1.0 it's like tagging two people and they each tag one or two people [assuming between 1.0 and 2.0 for mental visualization]; what you want though is a R0 of less than 1.0: at that point the "it" just might not 'tag' someone else. (Exponentials, growth/decay; fun stuff, except for dealing with integration or derivatives in calculus.)

notjoshing wrote:An aside on the modeling: Python has some great statistical packages. What the language lacks when compared to R, Matlab, or Julia, it more than makes up for with the simplicity of putting together something relatively simple such as this (Yes, Julia would be similarly easy, but the userbase for Python is so much broader that it's easier to get up to speed on the language.).
I heard an amusing saying from a fellow programmer awhile back — "The great thing about R is that it was developed by statisticians; the terrible thing about R is that it was developed by statisticians."

rycamor wrote:VD wrote:I will be putting my life at risk every other day for the next few months.

First, thank you. And second, good luck…. Too many people tend to forget that health care workers are not indestructible machines, but front line soldiers taking the highest degree of risk.

That's an excellent point. And all the people out there blustering about how "it's just the flu" and "I ain't afraid of no virus" should be flogged simply for putting healthcare workers at such risk. Even IF it were no worse than the common flu, if millions of people get it at once, it will be mayhem. And this thing has potential to infect billions within the coming year if not checked.

This is an excellent point.
The other thing, and terrifying in its own right, is the 14–24 day long period wherein you are an asymptomatic yet contagious carrier; that alone suggests a ridiculously high R0, comparatively.
Add in some of the other possibilities which, given that it could well be a chimeric bioweapon, you should consider — decreased-fertility, reinfection, etc — and it's one of those things where I'd say "No thanks." to rolling the dice on that.

Blogger OneWingedShark March 13, 2020 9:37 AM  

Rakshasa wrote:The WHO chief announced that 'we' may call it a pandemic.
New policy that they won't be declaring pandemics, instead just advising nations and some other crap.
No need to pay out $300 million in insurance bonds that would go towards helping poor countries deal with this, instead allowing rich grabblers to grabble more money from us.
Every day I realize more and more that Uncle was right.

Akulkis wrote:> The WHO chief announced that 'we' may call it a pandemic.
Interesting. He declared it a pandemic yesterday. He Must have had a visit from some of the Pandemic Bond holders.

Some people ought to be shot.
I would love to see someone force the WHO to stick to their usage of "pandemic", not allow them to walk it back, and force them to disburse the money — it's $300 million, not billions, not trillions, and it was clearly a gamble… one they LOST.

Force them to eat their loss, rather than steal from other people.

Crew wrote:Latest news is that Justin Castro-Trudeau's wife has the virus.
Maybe now he will know how betrayed ordinary Canadians feel.

No! Not Canada's Most Prolific Actor's Wife!
Say it isn't so…

TheMaleRei wrote:I wonder how many possible Corona carriers Erdoğan is trying to shove into Greece.
"If I can't make Greece and all the rest part of the Neu-Ottoman Empire, I'll just fill it with Plague Bearers!"

Shades of Nurgle-cultist there.

xavier wrote:The pandemic has 2 positives
1) it underscores the imprudence of deindustralizing entire regions for cheaper bad quality products from outside.
2) a radical reevaluation of work and a return to localism.

This is true.

Blogger spacehabitats March 14, 2020 6:02 AM  

Thank you! I am also my local EMS's medical director. You guys are taking even greater risks with less reward than the rest of the health care workers.

Blogger Avalanche March 14, 2020 10:18 AM  

@15 " then what will shut it down is the population wide immunity that arises from the previously sick being immune."

Except it is not yet known if a previous dance with the corona-devil actually provides any sort of immunity! -- and there is some "evidence" that it DOES NOT!

AND the deadliest wave of the 1918 flu pandemic was the SECOND wave, after the bug had mutated to more virulent. Third wave "went back" to the original level of virulence.

There is not even any assurance that the heat and humidity of summer WILL moderate corona-chan!

"Tropical" countries are not seeing a massive effect of their year-round summer weather, although they do seem to be seeing a positive effect of strong harsh containment, and their people's associated willingness to obey the containment, which the West doesn't seem to have!

Blogger Avalanche March 14, 2020 10:23 AM  

@37 "as the infected pockets recover and become immune, and get us into warm weather wherein the corona type virus tends to subside."

Pray you're right.

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