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Friday, July 03, 2020

The Trumpslide is still on

Remember, the vote is not between President Trump and some mythical crossbreed of FDR, JFK, and Obama, it's between him and a candidate who is so much worse than an obviously sick Hillary Clinton that they have to keep him out of sight of the media 24-7.
Professor Helmut Norpoth from Stony Brook University told Lou Dobbs on August 16th, 2016, that Donald Trump had an 87% chance of winning the 2016 Presidential election.
trump green bay

Professor Norpoth is a political science professor at Long Island’s Stony Brook University. His model has been correct since 1996 on predicting the popular vote. Helmut joined Lou Dobbs again tonight to discuss the 2020 election.  He gives President Trump a 91% chance of winning the 2020 Presidential election.
His odds will probably go up as white Americans get even more tired of BLM antics over the summer.

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83 Comments:

Blogger rikjames.313 July 03, 2020 11:54 AM  

Trump is not going to win Michigan absent a very strong federal oversight, which will not happen because it will be blocked by democratic judges.

Our governor is doing rolling emergency orders and has already ordered no ID mass mail in ballots for the primaries. I am sure the general will be even more dishonest

Blogger MATT July 03, 2020 11:57 AM  

The new MANLY Biden ad is like an SNL skit. Sounds likw they even used the same voice actor from the crappy Testosterone pill commercials.

Blogger Solon July 03, 2020 12:02 PM  

"B-b-but Trump is waycist! Even if he wins, it was by cheating and ballot stuffing! Americans dont want a racist, bigot, nazi for president!"

Joe "If you dont vote for me, you ain't black" Biden: Listen here, fat, them's the facts, Jack.

I would be more excited about watching Trump win except that I expect a MASSIVE wave of unrest and bloodshed when he does.

If you dont own a weapon and LOTS of ammo, you've got about 4 months to remedy that situation.

Blogger VD Bear July 03, 2020 12:11 PM  

This guys model predicts the popular vote? That’s an even stronger prediction then the electoral college. Now time for the whole “I was with you Vox....but have you seen his current polling?!?!” crowd. (Best read in a boomer voice)

Blogger JovianStorm July 03, 2020 12:15 PM  

On Twitter they're playing a game where you make your own Biden statement by typing in "so here's the deal" and continuously selecting the middle autocorrect option.

You still get more coherence than Biden himself.

"So here's the deal with the death penalty and not paid administrative leave before exoneration by the way I am going to be hot and I am not looking for a long weekend trip for the next few weeks. "

Blogger Wazdakka July 03, 2020 12:19 PM  

Self immolation may be the last gasp of the current Democratic party leadership

Blogger Damelon Brinn July 03, 2020 12:33 PM  

I've noticed a shift in the nice white people I know just in the last few weeks. One guy who would normally insist that riots are caused by a few bad apples said the other day, "But surely they're not all like that, even around here?" I said--gently because this was obviously painful for him--that yeah, they kind of are. He didn't really want to hear it, but he did hear it, which he wouldn't have a month ago.

I'm looking forward to a few more months of BLM antics, blatantly politically-motivated Covid restrictions, and whatever other desperate moves they come up with.

Blogger Karen took the Kids July 03, 2020 12:36 PM  

Tomorrow will be interesting. I predict it will help Trumps cause greatly unless the right wingers show up for honey traps.

Blogger Akulkis July 03, 2020 12:44 PM  

>> I would be more excited about watching Trump win except that I expect a MASSIVE wave of unrest and bloodshed when he does.

You're crazy if you think there won't be when the election is stolen from him.

Blogger Lazy Hero July 03, 2020 12:46 PM  

And the left will decry Trump didn't win, but who cares. Then what will the deep state, the left, and etc. do next, and at this point who the Hell can predict. My hope is Trump can make the Republican Party the Populist Right/White choice and that he picks a Tumpesque Pol to replace him in 24. We'll know this has happened when a Bush runs as a demonrat. At this point if America hasn't partitioned it will. How I hope.

Blogger ZhukovG July 03, 2020 12:50 PM  

Understand that no matter who wins, the losers will not accept the results. The more fraud required to manufacture a Biden win the better for Christian-American Nationalists.

There is absolutely no downside in the current political situation. For Nationalists, if the GE wins, we win. If Biden wins, we win quicker.

Ad Victoriam, Deo Vindice, Ave Caesar Trump!

Blogger Noah B. July 03, 2020 12:51 PM  

Agreed, we're living through one of the most extreme and pervasive psyops that's ever been attempted. Typical SJW attempt to disqualify, disqualify, disqualify.

Note the fantasies being reported on Drudge that Trump is going to drop out of the race. It's the same nonsense we've been hearing for five years now. Meanwhile Biden can't wait to appoint his good friend Ted Kennedy as attorney general.

Blogger Rick July 03, 2020 12:59 PM  

I think it’s true that people would rather vote “for” than “against” a candidate. Trumpslide will be caused by enthusiasm.
Saw a bummer sticker yesterday on an orange Subaru that said “ByeDon 2020”. Male driver.
Poor guy. Will never kiss a girl.

Blogger RandyB July 03, 2020 12:59 PM  

Anyone who thinks that Trump and his team aren't ready to handle fraud-by-mail isn't thinking at all.

How will they do it? They're not saying, and they're not going to. Not before the election, at any rate. We won't know how they handle it until after it is handled.

Blogger Nikolai Collushnikov July 03, 2020 1:25 PM  

I beginning to suspect that the BLM riots are the far left, the Bernie Bros, destructing the mainstream Democrat Party. Bernie lost, all the identity candidates lost, a "moderate" white candidate won. Woops. The corporate democrats were pushing the identity candidate, but the mainstream voters rejected them.
Time to burn down and rebuild.

Blogger Crew July 03, 2020 1:28 PM  

Well, since BLM stands for Burn, Loot, Murder I am sure most everyone will be sick of it pretty soon.

Blogger Section 8A July 03, 2020 1:35 PM  

What does Corn Pop think of all of this?

Blogger Maniac July 03, 2020 1:45 PM  

"If you dont own a weapon and LOTS of ammo, you've got about 4 months to remedy that situation."

Just earned my firearms safety certificate from a local Green Beret this week. Fingers crossed.

Blogger peacefulposter July 03, 2020 1:49 PM  

I was hoping the GE's recent drop in the polls would provide a nice betting opportunity. But the last payout I saw on bet365 dot com was only +140. In 2016, it was north of +300.

Blogger Crew July 03, 2020 1:53 PM  

They will keep on trying to steal the election because they only have to win once!

Blogger Zeroh Tollrants July 03, 2020 1:55 PM  

I hope they burn everything to the ground. Stop wanting everything to be safe I've and comfy.
That's not how change happens.

Blogger spacehabitats July 03, 2020 2:08 PM  

If only Trump were competing in a free and fair election. Despite all the posturing and proclamations that THIS election would not be tainted by widespread fraud, I see no evidence of effective federal oversight.
I sincerely hope I am wrong.

Blogger KPKinSunnyPhiladelphia July 03, 2020 2:08 PM  

All the polls are "interesting" but the betting markets are typically a better indicator of the current zeitgeist. And while Trump is improving, he is still in the +130ish range, while Biden is in the -140s.

https://bookies.com/news/presidential-election-odds-daily-tracker

Those are not good numbers.

That being said, we're months out and things can change rapidly. The leftoid press is in full anti-Trump mode with its stories about "spiking" and "skyrocketing" Wuhan cases and Trump as "white supremacist racist bigot." They will keep the "Trump has fucked up" theme going as long as they can twist the numbers.

It's actually good, though, that we're seeing these spikes in the Wuhan. More "infections" means more herd immunity.

Meanwhile, agitators are getting arrested, and don't be surprised if both Antifa and BLM get decapitated.

Four things need to happen in the run up to election day.

First, the economy has to continue to show tangible signs that it is turning around. Not return to pre-Wuhan but to show an obvious upward trajectory.

Second, the demonstrations need to peter out or become so small as to be meaningless.

Third, the virus has to fade.

Four, Biden has (a) get the nomination and not be replaced and (b) there have to be debates which will show that his brain is sawdust.

All four are high probability results.

I am going to put $500 down for Trump at +130.

Blogger R Devere July 03, 2020 2:13 PM  

We're already hearing rumors of "foreign powers"(Russian? Chinese?) printing fake bo allots....Hmmm, perhaps last minute "federalization" of election on national security grounds, with all "mail-in " ballots printed by federal presses on currency-like paper that can't easily be faked; all ballots delivered to counting sites monitored by Federal marshals or National Guard. (Why else would Schift introduce a bill restricting the Guard from protecting elections?)

Just sayin'.....

Blogger R Devere July 03, 2020 2:15 PM  

Rick wrote:Saw a bummer sticker yesterday on an orange Subaru that said “ByeDon 2020”. Male driver.

Poor guy. Will never kiss a girl.


But he will do reach-arounds with his "pajama-soy-boy" friends!

Blogger Cary July 03, 2020 2:18 PM  

One of the many things I’ve learned from SDL over the years is the importance of morale. At the moment I do think morale is down on the right, and this is why Trump appears weaker. But things are not going to stay that way. I think the hope on the left was to draw Trump to use violence to quell the riots and use that directly against him. But he has shown himself to be patient with a good instinct of knowing when and how to attack. I have no doubt that he will generate high morale for November.

Blogger kurt9 July 03, 2020 2:18 PM  

You're probably right, Vox. But I would still like to see some more campaigning from Trump. He needs to make the Democrats "own" the resulting economic damage from the COVID-19 shutdowns. He needs to make them "own" all of the follow on resulting from these riots in places like Minneapolis and Seattle.

Blogger Hylemorphist July 03, 2020 2:21 PM  

If in the unlikely event Trump does not win there is always the entertaining option of Trump starting a third party movement.
First orders of business:
1) Prison soap for the OaP (oligarchs and plutocrats) dopes. Starting with hedge fund managers and other economic parasites.
2) Mandatory State banks like North Dakota.
3) Abolishing usury (compound interest).
4) Reversing immigration... send them back.


Blogger Dole July 03, 2020 2:23 PM  

There are more leprechauns than Biden supporters.

Blogger Akulkis July 03, 2020 2:27 PM  

>> Saw a bummer sticker yesterday on an orange Subaru that said “ByeDon 2020”. Male driver.

Probably a lesbo wearing men's clothes.

Blogger Jack Amok July 03, 2020 2:31 PM  

Trumpslide imminent, threatens to overwhelm Democrat's vote-fraud retaining walls.

Blogger Seeingsights July 03, 2020 2:46 PM  

Betting markets have been mentioned in his thread.

I agree that betting markets are more accurate than polls, but they are not 100 percent accurate either.

Case in point: in 2016, most betting markets had Hillary Clinton winning.

I followed a betting market's odds for the Dem nomination. This particular betting market favored, for a few days, Elizabeth Warren. Then it favored Bernie Sanders for a longer time. When some Dem candidates dropped out, Biden 's odds soared above Sanders'. My point: betting markets are pretty good for the immediate future, but not for 4 months out and longer.

Blogger B July 03, 2020 3:00 PM  

I don't think the Professor's prediction has taken into account fraudulent ballots -- mail-in and otherwise (i.e., from dead people, people who don't live in the voting district anymore, and of course illegal alien motorvoters). The democrats will be ramping up their efforts to steal this election, make no doubt about that.

Blogger Doktor Jeep July 03, 2020 3:02 PM  

As Michael Moore's speech goes, when voting for Trump is the last "F YOU" we get, then that's what it's going to be. And IMO it's only the second time that fat bastard was right about anything.
The first time was when he heckled congress over the PATRIOT act.
As they say in the south, even a blind hog gets an acorn sooner or later. I don't put much stock in that boomer commie poser.

Nevertheless, it's becoming obvious that this is the end zone. I don't expect things to be silent over the rest of the summer. I would even be careful tomorrow as fireworks cover up gunshots.

Omega-grade paranoia for the win.
OK I was not going anywhere anyway.

Blogger Crew July 03, 2020 3:05 PM  

@23:

https://bookies.com/news/presidential-election-odds-daily-tracker

Those are not good numbers.


You know that people with money, like Soros, can move the scales, don't you?

Blogger B July 03, 2020 3:09 PM  

I forgot to note that noncitizens (motorvoter or not) regularly vote in Fairfax County (VA) elections, and they of course vote democrat. No problem if they don't know English -- voting nstructions are in Spanish, Korean, Vietnamese, Somali, Arabic, etc. ....

Blogger Damelon Brinn July 03, 2020 3:13 PM  

Anyone who thinks that Trump and his team aren't ready to handle fraud-by-mail isn't thinking at all.

I'll reserve judgment on that one. There were rumors that they were prepared to bust the Democrats and their GOPe conspirators for cheating in the Alabama special election a couple years ago. It looked like the pieces were in place: an agreement preventing Republicans from challenging elections had expired; a Trump executive order put some new federal oversight in place, and the Democrats were busing in voters and forging documents to frame Moore. Then after the election it was like everyone outside the state lost interest in it.

One theory was that our guys just didn't like Roy Moore enough to fight for him, but that shouldn't have mattered with a Senate seat at stake. Another possibility was that they did intend to catch them cheating, but the Dems hid the evidence too well and they couldn't prove it. Whatever the reason, it looked like our guys were prepared, but it didn't happen. So we'll see.

Blogger Silly but True July 03, 2020 3:21 PM  

This is all pointless academic debate: Nate Silver predicts Trump's ceiling is 15%, 20% tops, and he’ll never beat jeb! in the Republican primary much less become President.

Blogger Storm Rhode July 03, 2020 3:45 PM  

If O'Keefe can get video footage of wrong doing with Project Veritas, I can only imagine what evidence the full power of the Federal government can get if it goes after fraudulent votes.

Blogger Noah B. July 03, 2020 3:49 PM  

If we're right about Biden's mental state then his handlers can't allow him to debate. So they will come up with an excuse - Covid, that Trump is just to racist and problematic to even talk to, etc. Or the moderators will intervene heavily in favor of Biden, turning the entire debate into an effort to gaslight Trump.

Also, don't rule out the possibility that Biden will be blackmailed to throw the race. They have lots of dirt on him and Hunter. Enough to put any normal person away for life.

Blogger stevo July 03, 2020 3:54 PM  

Biden recently said that he's gonna pick a female VP who's ready to be president on day one.

Blogger APL July 03, 2020 4:18 PM  

Noah B: "If we're right about Biden's mental state then his handlers can't allow him to debate."

What is the latest the 'Democrats' can wait before ousting Biden for someone younger?

Or will his running mate be Hilary, or ... Chelsea?

Blogger Joe Smith July 03, 2020 4:18 PM  

Hylemorphist wrote:3) Abolishing usury (compound interest).

Usury doesn't mean "compound interest". Don't try to redefine words, or we'll decide you're a liar.

Blogger tdcommenter July 03, 2020 4:24 PM  

Proof rolling n for the Trumpcure, too.

Blogger Canadian Warlord July 03, 2020 4:36 PM  

There's a learning curve in Trump's team that actually goes back to Ron Paul 2008. The media had a lot more power back then, and 12 years of election trick knowledge does help.

Hopefully it's enough to slide by the approaching mail-in ballot fiasco, plus the obstacles that will attempt to tie things up.

If there's a genuine exposure of voter fraud, it'll matter more this time than it ever has because the media age is dying that fast. Expect some major theatrics as the corpse flails about.

Blogger Dont Worry About Me July 03, 2020 4:48 PM  

Trump has been great for showing how awful the heathens are. Trump delivers to them their beliefs, freedom and diversity, with the condition of working for it and they still hate him.

That's why God and Nation matters more

Blogger Damelon Brinn July 03, 2020 5:12 PM  

If we're right about Biden's mental state then his handlers can't allow him to debate.

I'm still waiting for someone on the left to float the idea of postponing the election, based on the theory that we can't have a proper democratic election because Covid Wave 2 will make it too hard to have conventions and townhalls and door-to-door campaigning and so on. And that's a bigger problem in their strongholds than in Trump counties.

It would be ideal for the Democrats. They can't beat Trump now, so they'd have nothing to lose by delaying it and hoping that changes. It would give them more time to replace Biden. And if they could delay it past Inauguration Day, they could claim Trump isn't *really* president because he hasn't been reelected yet, so he should do nothing.

I don't know what the constitutionality of a delay would be, but of course that doesn't matter. If they tried it, and the federal election officials refused, but states like California decided to delay their own elections, it could get interesting.

Blogger map July 03, 2020 6:16 PM  

KPKinSunnyPhiladelphia wrote:All the polls are "interesting" but the betting markets are typically a better indicator of the current zeitgeist. And while Trump is improving, he is still in the +130ish range, while Biden is in the -140s.

Betting markets are too thinly traded to mean anything. Large bets are too easy to make to skew the results.

Blogger AMIGAUSER July 03, 2020 6:16 PM  

What's your response to deninger post about trump having no chance in November

Blogger NO GOOGLES July 03, 2020 6:21 PM  

@47
Their voters would eat them alive for doing that. I know some of these people and they truly believe that Trump will absolutely lose in November. They are so deranged by the very existence of his Presidency that anything less than full steam ahead would enrage them. I expect the media will play up polls showing that Biden's going to win etc and this will only further divorce them from reality.

It's hard to grasp the true depth of animus many of these people have against Trump. A couple years ago I doubted Vox's claim that these people were aligned with Satan but their actions have convinced me. There is nothing out of bounds for them anymore - there are no limits.

Blogger Nihil Dicit July 03, 2020 6:51 PM  

First, the economy has to continue to show tangible signs that it is turning around. Not return to pre-Wuhan but to show an obvious upward trajectory.

Third, the virus has to fade.


All the big blue states are going to go to full lockdown in October because "virus gone wild, again" in hopes of completely kneecapping the economy right before the election, while also making mail-in ballots "the only viable option".

Besides, scaring the bejeezus out Boomers and other weakhearts with a DEADLY BUGGGGGG! has worked great for them so far. Expect either a "third wave" or even a brand new DEADLY BUGGGGGGG! this winter, irrespective of the results of said election.

Blogger Valtandor Nought July 03, 2020 7:02 PM  

Damelon Brinn wrote:I don't know what the constitutionality of a delay would be, but of course that doesn't matter.

I understand the new Presidential term starts on 20 January, which has implications for when the vote-counting session of Congress is to be held, and therefore when the electoral college meets.

A state that doesn't want to hold a popular election to choose its electors could decide to choose its electors by another means, for example selection by the state legislature. Nothing in the Constitution mandates that electors be chosen by popular vote.

Perhaps electors doing a no-show (because they hadn't been chosen) would count as a slew of abstentions. Which might make it difficult for any candidate to get to a majority of all electors, and throw the election to the House.

But like you say, all this is probably just idle speculation. It seems more likely to me that the Nine would decide to waive the 20 January term starting date. The question that remains would be: Would they extend Trump and Pence's term until a popular election could be "safely held", or would they decide that only the start date of the new term is pushed out, that the offices of President and Vice President vacate as usual on 20 January, and hail Acting President Pelosi?

Blogger VFM #7634 July 03, 2020 7:11 PM  

More Trumpslide indications:

I've seen next to no mention about the special elections, including New York's 27th district just last week, which went to the GOP in a 70-30 landslide where the Republicans barely kept it in 2018.

I was hoping the GE's recent drop in the polls would provide a nice betting opportunity. But the last payout I saw on bet365 dot com was only +140. In 2016, it was north of +300.

The phenomenon of Trump voters deliberately telling pollsters they're voting Democrat is definitely accelerating over 2016. Especially considering only 37% of Trump supporters are willing even to tell their family members, and considering DTTTM, they're even less likely to be willing to tell some rando over the phone.

Blogger VFM #7634 July 03, 2020 7:17 PM  

That being said, we're months out and things can change rapidly. The leftoid press is in full anti-Trump mode with its stories about "spiking" and "skyrocketing" Wuhan cases and Trump as "white supremacist racist bigot." They will keep the "Trump has fucked up" theme going as long as they can twist the numbers.

Yeah, about that... the 7-day trend is still increasing, but arithmetically now, not exponentially. And the increase in the percent positivity in the South is slowing down -- it appears to be close to hitting its peak. The West is basically the same although a little behind the South. The Midwest has also had flareups in places, but as with the South and West as a whole, it's states that weren't really hit earlier, like Ohio and Wisconsin.

It'll be interesting to watch them pivot when corona starts heading into full decline all over the country, and without a huge wave in deaths which is mysteriously not showing up.

Blogger Mr. B July 03, 2020 7:30 PM  

Be done with Javanka. Historic landslide.

Blogger Brett baker July 03, 2020 7:44 PM  

On NPR yesterday, they said Russia's vote on Constitutional changes were caused by mail-in voting and people who weren't previously registered to vote.
The stupidity was unbelievable.

Blogger the other boomer July 03, 2020 8:28 PM  

DB: you got me curious enough to look at Article 2, which gives the rules for presidential elections. The method of choosing electors is left up to the states, but I guess every state constitution must specify an election. The dates for choosing of electors and for electors to cast their votes are to be set by congress. But it's supposed to be every 4 years; to delay beyond inauguration day would be problematic.


I don't suppose any state HAS to choose electors. It would seem that the candidate receiving a majority of the votes cast by whatever electors are selected would be president.

Blogger tuberman July 03, 2020 8:42 PM  

"What is the latest the 'Democrats' can wait before ousting Biden for someone younger?"

Latest speculation I've heard is that Biden's wife is very sharp.

Blogger Bucephalus July 03, 2020 9:06 PM  

In the betting world ,suckers place bets on NFL games for the upcoming Sunday on Monday. What they call “sharp money” comes in Saturday night or Sunday morning, dramatically pushing the line. Trump will be favored by the time action is about to start.

Blogger Cataline Sergius July 03, 2020 9:19 PM  

So long as he keeps Jared's ideas on a backburner he should be fine.

Blogger phil g July 03, 2020 9:56 PM  

Or a Cernobich lisp

Blogger The Pitchfork Rebel July 03, 2020 10:17 PM  

@41

"Biden recently said that he's gonna pick a female VP who's ready to be president on day one."

That should be as comforting as his assurances that he's "checked regularly" for cognitive decline.

Translation: The Democrat ticket is bait and switch. I'm sure the only debate among Biden's handlers is how crazy left they can go, and how much puffery they'll be able to employ to make the pick acceptable.

I expect something on the order of the way the sold Sotomayor. She was qualified because of her "life story".

I proceed with caution because there's a couple states Trump won I'm worried about. I'm in PA and I can't believe the number of imbeciles that that are content with Wolf and Levine's obvious imperiousness and hypocrisy.


Blogger Uncle John's Band July 03, 2020 10:32 PM  

Thank goodness for black-pilled retards bleating about vote fraud. How would we have ever known of such tactics without these bold prognostications?

Now go play your little demoralization games elsewhere. There's no place for you here.

Blogger Bezzle July 03, 2020 11:35 PM  

> If you dont own a weapon and LOTS of ammo,
> you've got about 4 months to remedy that situation.

You have less time than that, what with benefits expiring at the end of July.

Blogger cyrus83 July 03, 2020 11:44 PM  

Team Trump I'm sure has a plan for dealing with the attempted vote by mail fraud attempts, but lulling the Democrats into thinking their fraud plans are all set is a better plan than alerting them with months to go that they need to find a new scheme. Much better the Dems learn after the election that they've been foiled than before.

Regarding the recent story that China supposedly had the recipe to manufacture fake ballots, I'd bet heavily that if China or the Dems are trying this route that the formula they have is incorrect and the fakes would be obvious. NJ rejecting nearly a fifth of the ballots as fraudulent is also a good sign that protections are in place.

Blogger LAZ July 04, 2020 12:04 AM  

My plumber friends tell me the master bed & bath are now going to be known as the priority bed & bath nationwide. I wish I was kidding.

Blogger Silly but True July 04, 2020 12:33 AM  

Constitution has safeguards for delays. Primary elections aren't in Constitution; they're State animals and have no bearing on Presidential election but for State regulating who State allows on State ballots.

Constitution only requires electors to vote as appointed by State's legislators; sometimes there have been multiple or conflicting votes produced by a State.

Electors submit their votes to Congress on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December, with 4th Wed. in Dec. as soft deadline. Congress counts the votes on Jan 6.

If CA sends no electoral votes by Jan. 6, then CA votes zero votes for President. Assuming a candidate gets a majority, this is not any big deal (beyond CA disenfranchising its voters).

One could likely expect as deadlines loom that various interests would try to assert their vote is the legitimate one.

Congress can accept their arguments or not.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd July 04, 2020 1:07 AM  

KPKinSunnyPhiladelphia wrote:Four things need to happen in the run up to election day.
Just one thing needs to happen: Trump needs to effectively prevent voting fraud and vote-counting fraud.
Storm Rhode wrote:... I can only imagine what evidence the full power of the Federal government can get if it goes after fraudulent votes.
That's a might big if.

Blogger wreckage July 04, 2020 2:35 AM  

Voter fraud can't swing the whole system. The more votes happen, the less it works, and the harder it is to conceal. The bigger the margin between the candidates, well, the same.

So, if Trump increases his vote, voter fraud will drop out of the equation. It already wasn't enough to beat him in Round One. Dem turnout will be anaemic, and get worse with every passing day of riots and covid. Lefties do not gain momentum when everyone is thinking about border biosecurity and the restoration of law and order.

Blogger Bezzle July 04, 2020 2:36 AM  

What I am becoming increasingly convinced is happening is the following: the "Deep State", as it were, is going underground for a "reboot" phase (a la the Soviet Union during the late-90s and oughts). A cover-screen of useful-idiots (all the Democrats, and various Marxist professors and other figureheads in academia and government agencies) will get it in the neck.

But watch what the Fed is doing: during all of this exciting nonsense distracting us, it's been buying the liabilities (debt portfolios and junk bonds) of oodles of corporations with trillions of borrowed bubblefiat, under the guise of necessary QE to give us our V-shaped recovery.

What's happening? The plunder is being *distributed* off-site, leaving the Fed itself as a worthless husk should anyone (say, Trump) think to seize the place. I.e., in much the same manner as the Soviet treasury was looted and parked off-site in London for a decade.

If you could clear a hundred trillion by rigging the entire global economy to rape the future-markets with your tape-painting, then spending mere tens of billions on myriad layers of misdirection is insanely cheap.

Blogger Hylemorphist July 04, 2020 4:09 AM  

Joe Smith: Usury doesn't mean "compound interest". Don't try to redefine words, or we'll decide you're a liar.

Me:
Fair enough. I understand that usury doesn't mean compound interest. I had the following M.E. Jones quote in mind:
"No force on earth can keep up with compound interest, which is the heart of usury". I think stating "Usury (starting with compound interest)." would have been more accurate.

The aim is crack down on all financial instruments that allow people to get unearned income

Blogger rikjames.313 July 04, 2020 6:53 AM  

the other boomer wrote:I don't suppose any state HAS to choose electors. It would seem that the candidate receiving a majority of the votes cast by whatever electors are selected would be president.

In our state any candidate who qualifies for the ballot submits their slate of 16 names plus alternates to the state Secretary of State. If they are 'elected' that means their slate won. Faithless electors are removed at the time of the official ballot meeting

Blogger doctrev July 04, 2020 7:25 AM  

Bucephalus wrote:In the betting world ,suckers place bets on NFL games for the upcoming Sunday on Monday. What they call “sharp money” comes in Saturday night or Sunday morning, dramatically pushing the line. Trump will be favored by the time action is about to start.

I guess I might be the sharp money for the 2016 election. But my large bets didn't really shift the dial, so I doubt in the wisdom of betting markets.

Protip: find side bets that are obviously ludicrous and pumped up by (special) money. Then bet against them so hard it feels like robbery.

Blogger Avalanche July 04, 2020 7:32 AM  

@63 "That should be as comforting as his assurances that he's "checked regularly" for cognitive decline."

Well, "checked regularly" does NOT mean he gets a cognitively healthy report; he could be checked regularly and confirmed in his failing brain... Someone should hack his doctor's electronic medical records!

Blogger Damelon Brinn July 04, 2020 7:36 AM  

The Midwest has also had flareups in places,

In my rural county (pop. 70k), we had about 40 cases in early April, then it flat-lined for a couple months, then a surge of 60 cases in the last couple weeks. But only 2 hospitalizations out of those 60. As best I can tell, they've expanded the testing, and it's the antibody test. For one thing, they've started doing surgeries and other procedures again, and they're testing all those people. So they're finding people who already had it, maybe months ago. But they go on the list as a "new" case and are sent home to self-quarantine until two weeks of being symptom-free shows them "recovered."

So people who don't understand the difference between testing for the virus and testing for antibodies probably think we're experiencing a second wave, which is why there were suddenly more masks when I went to the grocery store yesterday. They can play a lot of tricks with the numbers to manipulate the ignorant, but if they try to stretch that out for months, I think even the ignorant will notice no one's dying.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd July 04, 2020 11:49 AM  

AMIGAUSER wrote:What's your response to deninger post about trump having no chance in November
My response is that Deninger is an angry, bitter fool. His libertard leanings lead him astray, and his rabid ravings are ineffective even when correct.

He's smart enough to do better than he does, but he doesn't. He doesn't believe God. No Jesus, no sense.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd July 04, 2020 12:06 PM  

Uncle John's Band wrote:Thank goodness for black-pilled retards bleating about vote fraud. How would we have ever known of such tactics without these bold prognostications?
I find it very encouraging to realize that large scale ballot fraud and counting fraud is really the only way for the globohomo faction to win, and that Trump really only has to ensure an honest election to ensure a historic Trumpalanche.

Blogger bramley says "Enoch was right" July 04, 2020 3:34 PM  

Donald Trump is the best President! Every time i read his tweets it just brings a huge smile to my face. He's the exact embodiment of what i want to see in the Commander in Chief, from my dreams, almost literally. 15 years ago i came up with a story for a NES-style platformer game called 'Commando in Chief', and basically Trump fits perfectly. Just waiting for him to rip off his shirt and jump over the desk in the oval office wielding an assault rifle, ready to take out the bad guys single handed cos everybody else is too sissy. Watching Obama was like having 8 years of continuous dental surgery without anaesthetic. Extremely unpleasant. I want America to be the country that spawned Hot Shots!, Terminator 2, Chuck Norris and every film by John Carpenter again. The country of Metallica before they became pussies, and Slayer and Morbid Angel and Cannibal Corpse, not thousands of whiny millionaire rappers cum fashion designers, or the fat Republic of Twitter.

I don't care if he never does any of the things he promises to. The way he goes at the evil-doers is enough. It's joy to watch the gnashing of teeth and primal screams of pure frustration he induces in the wonky woke wankers.

I hope he wins. Really think it's a serious crux point of history, this election. No more gloom, Trump 2020! And forever!

Blogger Akulkis July 04, 2020 3:56 PM  

>> or would they decide that only the start date of the new term is pushed out, that the offices of President and Vice President vacate as usual on 20 January, and hail Acting President Pelosi?

That would lead to IMMEDIATE civil war, as Pelosi or the Democratic Party would be presumed to be the architect of the whole thing for her/their exclusive benefit.

Soap Box (being destroyed by "cancel culture")
Ballot Box (would be destroyed by such a move)

would leave only

Cartridge box (of which 99% are in Trump-supporters' hands).

Blogger Akulkis July 04, 2020 3:57 PM  

Haxo, do you EVER get tired of being completely wrong?

Blogger Bezzle July 04, 2020 5:24 PM  

> I find it very encouraging to realize that large scale ballot fraud and counting fraud is really the only way for the globohomo faction to win...

The fact that it's even being talked about *in advance* should make one deeply suspicious.

Their real power lies in controlling publicity. They can give a new candidate a billion dollars in free advertising before the primaries, or none at all. It's why nearly every race these days is between the same two archetypes: an unvarnished socialist and a quisling conservative who swings hard left once elected. In such cases, *it doesn't matter who wins*, as both are controlled.

If you have a big pile of chips gambled on Trump as the last Great White Hope of the West, by all means let them ride. But have a back-up hedge.

Blogger Gettimothy July 04, 2020 6:27 PM  

What's your response to deninger post about trump having no chance in November

check the sidebar.

Blogger L.Fairchild July 06, 2020 2:22 AM  

I have a family member who hates Trump so much that she's convinced herself that Biden is a good candidate. She says Trump is a proven child molester, but that Bidens little girl hair sniffing is OK because he apologized for it and is a better person now.
Thank God we're Canadian and she can't vote for him.

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