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Monday, July 13, 2020

War in the South China Sea

It looks as if President Trump is inclined to call China's raising the stakes in the South China Sea:
U.S. officials say the Trump administration is poised to escalate its actions against China by stepping squarely into one of the most sensitive regional issues dividing them and rejecting outright nearly all of Beijing’s significant maritime claims in the South China Sea.

In a move the officials say is expected as early as Monday, the administration will present the decision as an attempt to curb China’s increasing assertiveness in the region with a commitment to recognizing international law. But it will almost certainly have the more immediate effect of further infuriating the Chinese, who are already retaliating against numerous U.S. sanctions and other penalties on other matters.
The Syracuse Moment approaches....

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138 Comments:

Blogger MortemTyrannus July 13, 2020 3:27 PM  

Probably related:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8515381/1-injured-fire-aboard-ship-Naval-Base-San-Diego.html

Blogger Wazdakka July 13, 2020 3:28 PM  

Kinda hoping this year doesn't get too interesting

Blogger Weak July 13, 2020 3:32 PM  

Oh no! Maybe in retaliation, China will release a bioengineered virus on the world.

Blogger Dick July 13, 2020 3:37 PM  

Anyone mind filling me in here? What is the Syracuse moment. Having no luck in the search.

Blogger rikjames.313 July 13, 2020 3:43 PM  

With America down a landing battalion and a squadron of F35s for the island hopping campaign.

If I didn't know how lazy and drugged up shipyard and depot contractors are, I would suspect the fire was done by China. But it was probably just a gift to the PRC from a greedy contractor CEO hiring off LaborReady.

Blogger Daniele Grech Pereira July 13, 2020 3:46 PM  

Syracusan here: Good luck, China! See you in the history books.

Blogger The Last Roman July 13, 2020 3:46 PM  

A loss vs China would be far worse for the American Empire than what the Athenians suffered after Syracuse.

Blogger MortemTyrannus July 13, 2020 3:55 PM  

1. Trump escalates.
2. A ship fire starts that would be the backup to currently deployed.
3. China is probably going to have massive flooding once the dam busts.
4. Twitter thinks watching water egress a dam is "sensitive" content.

https://twitter.com/Lastkombo/status/1280821867281108992
https://twitter.com/rosskopi/status/1281241175307857920

Blogger SirHamster July 13, 2020 3:58 PM  

Dick wrote:Anyone mind filling me in here? What is the Syracuse moment. Having no luck in the search.
The historical war that ended the Athenian empire. They started a fight and lost so badly it destroyed their power.

Blogger The Last Roman July 13, 2020 3:59 PM  

It's from Thucydides' history, the Peloponnesian War. Athens while engaged in song war vs Sparta decided to send a fleet to fight Syracuse. It was a disaster. Their enemy used large numbers of cavalry to harass and destroy the Athenians. They pushed the phalanx off a cliff like the famous scene in 300.

Blogger Wazdakka July 13, 2020 4:02 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan July 13, 2020 4:03 PM  

Stoned out scab workers in San Diego saving the American lives that our politicians won't by sinking the fleet in our own harbors, good job stoners.

I'd rather see the NBA sanctioned and hit with fines than trying to enforce some stupid proclamation in another empire's backyard.

Blogger Bernard Korzeniewicz July 13, 2020 4:08 PM  

Before that moment will came lets enjoy some real USA Orthodox music.
They are 100% made in USA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgRWoYIVDRk

Blogger JAU July 13, 2020 4:10 PM  

@4 See:https://infogalactic.com/info/Sicilian_Expedition

Blogger VFM Bear July 13, 2020 4:11 PM  

Dick, this might help:

https://www.learning-history.com/siege-syracuse-destruction-athenian-army/

Blogger Noah B. July 13, 2020 4:11 PM  

It's difficult to see how this is putting America first. Meanwhile we can't even keep NATO members from fighting/threatening to invade each other.

Blogger rumpole5 July 13, 2020 4:17 PM  

What with the virus resurgence in Peking, the Himalayan humiliation at the hands of the Indians, and the present Yangtze inundations, I'm not sure that I would put my money on China to win either. They seem to have lost the mandate of heaven.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd July 13, 2020 4:18 PM  

Dick wrote:Anyone mind filling me in here? What is the Syracuse moment. Having no luck in the search.
In the middle of one of their wars, Athens decided to conquer the city of Syracuse. They won that unnecessary battle, but it weakened them to the point that they lost their war.

I haven't read that history myself, I am just repeating what I remember reading here on this blog.

Blogger The Last Roman July 13, 2020 4:30 PM  

An article on Chinese capabilities
https://warontherocks.com/2020/03/beyond-conventional-wisdom-evaluating-the-plas-south-china-sea-bases-in-operational-context/

Blogger FUBARwest July 13, 2020 4:32 PM  

If this happens and the US lose, how much does that speed up the 2033 timeline?

Blogger yoyoyoBigD July 13, 2020 4:35 PM  

How the heck does any country beats 220 million chinese men?

You ally yourself with India.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/16/world/asia/indian-china-border-clash.html

At least that seems to be the plan.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd July 13, 2020 4:40 PM  

The Last Roman wrote:A loss vs China would be far worse for the American Empire than what the Athenians suffered after Syracuse.
If China gets lucky, if their vundervaffen really are more vunderful than ours, if we are sufficiently stupid, then we could lose most of our Pacific fleet, and lose the ability to apply force anywhere in the world at a moment's notice.

We have had a peace-time military for around 50 years now. For 50 years, military failure has not been an existential threat, but an excuse for bigger budgets. The current generation of sailors have never sailed with anyone who has faced an actual, competent, near-peer enemy, because for two long generations, the US military has not faced such an enemy.

Leaving aside the issues of diversity and Curie-Hultgren syndrome, our military procurement system is optimized to maximize cost and kickbacks, so we will not be able to replace any substantial losses quickly, if we can afford to replace them at all.

Since we do have our nukes, we are unlikely to be occupied. Since our empire has been a net loss to the American nation from the beginning, losing the empire might be a net gain. I'm surely sorry for the many sailors who are going to die in the process of losing that empire: they signed up to serve the nation, but dying pointlessly in the end of the empire was not what they thought they were signing up for.

Blogger Kraemer July 13, 2020 4:45 PM  

Syracuse expedition is when the Greek empire overextended itself and got themselves embarrassed thoroughly. That's exactly what will happen to the US Empire if it thinks it can wage a shooting war against China on the South China Sea. There should be a Darkstream on this topic on Unauthorized

Blogger Akulkis July 13, 2020 4:51 PM  

>> If I didn't know how lazy and drugged up shipyard and depot contractors are, I would suspect the fire was done by China. But it was probably just a gift to the PRC from a greedy contractor CEO hiring off LaborReady.

These sorts of contractors wouldn't be cheap -- they require security clearances.

Blogger RobertDWood July 13, 2020 5:07 PM  

For a useful popular historical treatment in book form, Sailing the Wine Dark Sea by Thomas Cahill has a good portion on the Peloponnesian war setting up Athens to embark on the Syracuse invasion, and then the fall out from it.

Blogger Akulkis July 13, 2020 5:11 PM  

>> What with the virus resurgence in Peking, the Himalayan humiliation at the hands of the Indians, and the present Yangtze inundations, I'm not sure that I would put my money on China to win either. They seem to have lost the mandate of heaven.

They also don't have a single functioning aircraft carrier.

Do they have a hull with a flight deck? Yes.
Was it in good condition when they bought it from the Russians? Nope.
Is it something that members of a monkey-see-monkey-do culture can whip into shape with innovation? Nope.

Can the Chinese conduct naval air operations during combat conditions? Extremely doubtful.

The "when weak, feign strenght; when strong, feign weakness" maxim doesn't work with aircraft carriers. Everybody can see a CV when it leaves port, and even at sea, you can get stills and video of a CV when it is in operation (launching or recovering aircraft). So, even if they're not publicizing their capability, we would know what capability they have, and I sense absolutely zero concern from the naval aviation community.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd July 13, 2020 5:13 PM  

Akulkis wrote:These sorts of contractors wouldn't be cheap -- they require security clearances.
I see many contractors with employees who could never get clearance. They are required to have escorts with clearances. The escorts are mostly cute kids, and none of them have any idea what the contractor's employees should be doing, or how to tell the difference between good work and sabotage.

Blogger Valar Addemmis July 13, 2020 5:13 PM  

>> These sorts of contractors wouldn't be cheap -- they require security clearances.

Already assumed/baked into the cost. Plenty of cutrate contractors/tradepeople with security clearances around any federal hubs. And plenty of labor searching sites track clearance statuses.

Blogger Brett baker July 13, 2020 5:26 PM  

+1. I am starting to lean towards a long war, with both sides claiming victory at the end, without any real changes.

Blogger Ray - SoCal July 13, 2020 5:44 PM  

Right now it's just noise. Neither side is interesting in a war at this time. Trump is trying to end the ones we are in. And every year China gets stronger, and who knows, may be Biden will become President. China is not going to start something that would help Trump get re-elected.

Blogger doctrev July 13, 2020 5:54 PM  

Unknown wrote:How the heck does any country beats 220 million chinese men?

You ally yourself with India.


It'd be profoundly foolish to rely on India as a military superpower. But thankfully the President isn't doing that. Bringing an economic and regional power firmly against the Chinese, especially after decades of being non-aligned when facing the Soviet Union, is going to be a diplomatic masterstroke for Donald Trump.

China's been able to push through an open doorway without ever being stopped. They'd be stupid to insist on maximal demands without some sort of expenditure somewhere else... but the same could also be said of the USA.

Interesting times.

Blogger Robert Browning July 13, 2020 6:09 PM  

The Jews are the ones at war with the Chinese. Let the Jews fight their own battles and leave us out of it.

Blogger Canadian Warlord July 13, 2020 6:28 PM  

Look for China to make a bold move when the US military is occupied / over-extended elsewhere. They know their capabilities, so they monitor western public opinion. They know that the public will tire quickly of another war in Asia under the right circumstances.

Are we seeing the fruits of a devils-pact agreement, trading North Korea for Taiwan? The DPRK seems closer than ever to rapprochement / collapse / doomed military adventure, they will be dominated by the ROK cultural power as soon as they get smartphones. China hasn't made a serious move to bolster them for some time, I don't get the "chained up attack dog" vibe from NK these days.

Taiwan won't fall tomorrow. I think the US is going to have to make that first move, by doing something insane like a real attempt at Iran.

Blogger VFM #7634 July 13, 2020 6:39 PM  

We have had a peace-time military for around 50 years now. For 50 years, military failure has not been an existential threat, but an excuse for bigger budgets. The current generation of sailors have never sailed with anyone who has faced an actual, competent, near-peer enemy, because for two long generations, the US military has not faced such an enemy.

Leaving aside the issues of diversity and Curie-Hultgren syndrome, our military procurement system is optimized to maximize cost and kickbacks, so we will not be able to replace any substantial losses quickly, if we can afford to replace them at all.


I'd say we're not so much like the Athenians as like the Soviet Army in 1941: large, certainly, but loaded down with political commissars and political appointees... Diversity and SJW idiots.

But yeah, either way, primed to get its ass kicked.

Blogger My 1 millionth internet profile July 13, 2020 6:40 PM  

I would suspect the fire was done by China.

Even a cursory reading of recent US military history would indicate they're quite capable of wrecking billions of dollars worth of gear through their own incompetence, thank you very much.

Blogger Paul M July 13, 2020 6:41 PM  

Ominous Cowherd wrote:Since we do have our nukes, we are unlikely to be occupied.

Just to play devil's advocate: there is only one place on earth where your military is safe from US nukes, and that's invading the USA itself.

Blogger RedJack July 13, 2020 6:50 PM  

Ominous Cowherd

Portions of the former USA are now declaring independence and breaking away.

The question is, who gets the nukes.

Blogger Nikolai Collushnikov July 13, 2020 6:57 PM  

There wont be war with China. Just like there hasn't been a war with Russia, Iran, Syria, Venezuela and North Korea. There is simply no Trumpian profit in any of these wars.

Blogger Macs July 13, 2020 7:03 PM  

The Syracuse expedition was Athens to lose and should have been a cake-walk with Alcibiades at the helm. Sadly it was internal divisions that forced him to bail, which is the same problem Trump is facing. If he goes to Russia and bangs Putin's favorite I won't even blame him!

Blogger Ominous Cowherd July 13, 2020 7:12 PM  

Akulkis wrote:They also don't have a single functioning aircraft carrier.
Do they really need one to dominate the South China Sea? They have something like 7 little islands they've built on reefs, with multiple runways, radar and comms installations and missile installations. The islands can launch aircraft, including ASW craft. They can launch anti-ship missiles, and can have significant anti-aircraft and anti-missile defences.

They can conduct active surveillance without worrying about giving away the islands' locations. You can't hide the islands, but you also can't sink them. So, the chinks can run powerful radars on the islands, see all of our ships, and transmit their positions to their ships which don't have to radiate at all, and so are harder for us to find.

They can launch planes from their one carrier, and then land them on one of the island strips. Carrier launches are merely hard, but carrier landings are really hard. They have the option not to do landings. They can also operate big planes that don't fit on carriers.

Carriers are hard targets, but land installations are harder to damage and easier to repair. The islands have underground bunkers, and cratered runways can have the craters filled in quickly. The unsinkable islands are tiny, but compared to a carrier they are enormous, so the multiple targets are dispersed and it's going to take a lot of hits to take even one island out of commission. Did I mention that they have more of those islands in the South China Sea than we have carriers there?

The chinks have only one carrier, and they can't really use it effectively yet. I'm not sure that's going to slow them down a bit.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd July 13, 2020 7:21 PM  

Paul M wrote:Just to play devil's advocate: there is only one place on earth where your military is safe from US nukes, and that's invading the USA itself.
Maybe?
If we don't want to nuke your military here, we would have the option to nuke your homeland.
If you landed your military some place like Seattle or LA or San Francisco, we could nuke the cities and take out your military and and an enemy city with the same kaboom.

It's all silly talk, anyway. You would have to get significant forces across an ocean, and then be able to keep them supplied for the duration. The US navy isn't what it used to be, but it's not hard to imagine that they could sink enough freighters and troop transports to make a cross-Pacific invasion impossible. The chinks can't even invade Taiwan, and that's barely over their horizon.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd July 13, 2020 7:22 PM  

RedJack wrote:Portions of the former USA are now declaring independence and breaking away.

The question is, who gets the nukes.

That's going to be the biggest complication of the eventual divorce.

Blogger thethirdcoast July 13, 2020 7:22 PM  

Ominous Cowherd wrote:The Last Roman wrote:A loss vs China would be far worse for the American Empire than what the Athenians suffered after Syracuse.

Leaving aside the issues of diversity and Curie-Hultgren syndrome, our military procurement system is optimized to maximize cost and kickbacks, so we will not be able to replace any substantial losses quickly, if we can afford to replace them at all.


There is a serious labor quality problem across the defense industry that will only compound the difficulties in replacing losses.

Blogger nswhorse July 13, 2020 7:44 PM  

Given it's the Associated Press, given Vox's 48 hour rule, and given how many times Trump has talked big and tough as an opening gambit, I'm reserving my judgement.

Blogger Akulkis July 13, 2020 7:45 PM  

> How the heck does any country beats 220 million chinese men?

You don't play to their strength -- land combat. You go at their weakness -- small, inexperienced, historically failing navy, which can never put significant number of men into the fight at the same time.

Blogger Crew July 13, 2020 7:45 PM  

@37: I can see a King Donald Trump (Jr) in our future.

Blogger Jandolin July 13, 2020 7:59 PM  

Trump is following Steve Bannon's strategy at last to win re-election. Bannon suggested Trump needed to get tough with China and take a strong stand against the left in the culture if he hoped to win re-election.

Blogger VD Bear July 13, 2020 8:12 PM  

For every Technological military advantage the US has the Chinese have 3 simple but effective counter tactics. To only account for material power and not tactical and strategic prowess would be a serious mistake. The USN is built to bluff anyone with good sense away from fighting. What happens when they are forced to fight? Someone above already pointed out the USN is 2 generations removed from any near peer combat experience, relying on completely converged multi-ethnic, multi-cultural sailors and counting on a handful of irreplaceable tech advantages. like carriers.

Blogger Grooveware July 13, 2020 8:12 PM  

Time to stand down and let the China shine, America has enough problems at home, I bet you 5 sheckles the Small Hats are pushing for this war. China will get their taste of war soon as all New Empires do.

Blogger My 1 millionth internet profile July 13, 2020 8:15 PM  

there is only one place on earth where your military is safe from US nukes, and that's invading the USA itself.

That's only a matter of will. SLBMs, AL/GL/SLCMs, even free fall nukes, could be targeted on US soil. Of course, since we're discussing a Syracuse moment: "The readiness of forces that operate U.S. nuclear systems is another important indication of the health of the overall force. Despite the changes instituted by the Air Force following mishaps in 2006 and 2007, success was limited, as evidenced by further mishaps. In January 2014, for example, the Air Force discovered widespread cheating on nuclear proficiency exams and charged over 100 officers with misconduct. The Navy had a similar problem, albeit on a smaller scale."

Blogger Andrew Jackson July 13, 2020 8:16 PM  

There's only one problem with the Syracuse theory , US submarines will obliterate the CCP navy. Like the Marines and paratroopers they are overwhelmingly whiteguys.

Blogger Zeroh Tollrants July 13, 2020 8:19 PM  

It better be the white people parts, lol. Imagine otherwise.

Blogger Meanoldbasterd July 13, 2020 8:24 PM  

I admit it... I laughed. Touche sir!

Blogger Rattlesnake_Kid July 13, 2020 8:32 PM  

Paul M wrote:Ominous Cowherd wrote:Since we do have our nukes, we are unlikely to be occupied.

Just to play devil's advocate: there is only one place on earth where your military is safe from US nukes, and that's invading the USA itself.


Useful to keep in mind, though I have a hard time seeing China successfully ferrying millions of boots across the Pacific. Nuking a naval invasion in the ocean would be both incredibly difficult to guard from and the easiest possible situation to justify a nuclear strike.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash July 13, 2020 8:56 PM  

Andrew Jackson wrote:There's only one problem with the Syracuse theory , US submarines will obliterate the CCP navy. Like the Marines and paratroopers they are overwhelmingly whiteguys.
You need to read more history. It wasn't Syracuse that conquered Athens.

Blogger Silent Draco July 13, 2020 9:04 PM  

"U.S. officials ..." is another giveaway for the 48 hour rule. This could be anyone's sock puppets talking.

Blogger Akulkis July 13, 2020 9:22 PM  

>> Are we seeing the fruits of a devils-pact agreement, trading North Korea for Taiwan? The DPRK seems closer than ever to rapprochement / collapse / doomed military adventure, they will be dominated by the ROK cultural power as soon as they get smartphones.

Given the choice between a free Taiwan island, and a free country on the other side of the Yalu River, China will choose to keep N. Korea a totalitarian dictatorship. Right now, N. Korean flee into China, because China is less oppressive. The CCP is happy with this, as it means no Chinese are fleeing across the Yalu rive into N. Korea. Fleeing across the Yalu river can be accomplished by swimming. Fleeing across the Taiwan Straight to reach freedom is 110 nautical miles (126 statue miles = 203 km).

Blogger Akulkis July 13, 2020 9:23 PM  

>> Even a cursory reading of recent US military history would indicate they're quite capable of wrecking billions of dollars worth of gear through their own incompetence, thank you very much.

TRVTH!

Blogger Akulkis July 13, 2020 9:28 PM  

>> Do they really need one to dominate the South China Sea? They have something like 7 little islands they've built on reefs, with multiple runways, radar and comms installations and missile installations. The islands can launch aircraft, including ASW craft. They can launch anti-ship missiles, and can have significant anti-aircraft and anti-missile defences.

Extremely vulnerable to extremely large waves. It really wouldn't take much to put a whole line of depth charges into the water set at minimum depth, and create a wave that would overwash one of these islands and immediately destroy every building, wash all of the airframes and maintenance gear off the other side into the sea, and they wouldn't even have enough time to put anything onto the radio to reveal the method of attack used to destroy the island.

Raid the island proper to keep the air defense assets occupied trying to shoot the planes shooting at them, while another flight drops a long stick (combined) of depth charges, and they wouldn't have enough time to even sent out an SOS when the wave hits.

Blogger Akulkis July 13, 2020 9:33 PM  

>> They can conduct active surveillance without worrying about giving away the islands' locations. You can't hide the islands, but you also can't sink them. So, the chinks can run powerful radars on the islands, see all of our ships, and transmit their positions to their ships which don't have to radiate at all, and so are harder for us to find.

The only way they can detect American task forces operating under radio/electro-magnetic silence is to use active radar. Any active radar is a target for a HARM (High speed Anti-Radiation Missile). Just like acoustically guided torpedoes, HARM automatically home in on the target. Even if the target goes silent, all it takes is to pick up a couple radar sweeps (outside of the radar stations own ability to detect reflected signals) to get a decent range estimate. Combine the basic HARM with some of the terrain-guidance of our ship-launched and air-launched cruise missiles, and China's ability to keep those radar transmitters working is extremely doubful.

That said, we should ALWAYS have a back-up brute force plan in case the HARM missile finesse doesn't do the trick.

Anonymous Anonymous July 13, 2020 9:59 PM  

What with the whole mass hysteria breakout occurring almost exactly around the same time as Defender Europe 2020, I sometimes wonder if the whole COVID thing was a preemptive maneuver on the West's part to normalize the mask-wearing wartime behavior they know they might need the Western populace to follow to keep them safe should the escalating power moves between the US and China turn sour (as well as to assist in some Iranian destabilization plot, probably in coordination with Israel - I've been hearing more than one internet chatter of mysteriously exploding nuclear plants). The West knows full well that a major portion of China's planned retaliation on the Western domestic soil would take a germ warfare approach. So prior to planned escalations, we behave as though what we expected China WOULD do in the future already happened, so that by the time it DOES happen in reality in retaliation for our chess moves, the populace will already be trained to avoid it.

Blogger Ransom Smith July 13, 2020 10:08 PM  

Just to play devil's advocate: there is only one place on earth where your military is safe from US nukes, and that's invading the USA itself.
I'll do you one better.
There's no where in the world safe from US nukes, because nukes don't actually exist and are just propaganda devices used to scare.

Blogger tuberman July 13, 2020 10:19 PM  

"The question is, who gets the nukes." *?*

Duh, you best have a plan so that your side takes the nukes.

Blogger Angantyr July 13, 2020 10:26 PM  

Ominous Cowherd wrote:Akulkis wrote:They also don't have a single functioning aircraft carrier.

Do they really need one to dominate the South China Sea? They have something like 7 little islands they've built on reefs, with multiple runways, radar and comms installations and missile installations. The islands can launch aircraft, including ASW craft. They can launch anti-ship missiles, and can have significant anti-aircraft and anti-missile defences.

They can conduct active surveillance without worrying about giving away the islands' locations. You can't hide the islands, but you also can't sink them. So, the chinks can run powerful radars on the islands, see all of our ships, and transmit their positions to their ships which don't have to radiate at all, and so are harder for us to find.

They can launch planes from their one carrier, and then land them on one of the island strips. Carrier launches are merely hard, but carrier landings are really hard. They have the option not to do landings. They can also operate big planes that don't fit on carriers.

Carriers are hard targets, but land installations are harder to damage and easier to repair. The islands have underground bunkers, and cratered runways can have the craters filled in quickly. The unsinkable islands are tiny, but compared to a carrier they are enormous, so the multiple targets are dispersed and it's going to take a lot of hits to take even one island out of commission. Did I mention that they have more of those islands in the South China Sea than we have carriers there?

The chinks have only one carrier, and they can't really use it effectively yet. I'm not sure that's going to slow them down a bit.


I do wish that America could do what no other empire in history has done, AFAIK, and that is simply relinquish said empire without fighting, and turn back to minding its own business.

In reference to the quoted section above, I would point out that was the strategy Imperial Japan followed, but as history would show it did not do them much good - both generally and in the specific case of the Battle of the Philippine Sea. Sure, the islands are "unsinkable" (though given they are Chinese made I'm not sure how much of an assurance that is) but that also means they can't relocate to where they are needed or hide, for that matter. Somehow I just don't think it will work out as planned - can't prove it, but I get a sense that fixed bases/positions are going to be obsolete in a near future war.

Blogger Doktor Jeep July 13, 2020 10:51 PM  

From the looks of it, something needs to happen. If nothing happens, well what happened in Missouri will happen everywhere: You use a gun to defend yourself, the police - which we goodie two-shoes "conservatives" are automatically expected to defend - will take your gun.
A conflagration at least takes the entire shitshow down and offers an out from the South Africa slow death murder-a-week path. Anyone crying about their Harleys, RVs, and 401Ks I might rob them myself to better allocate resources.

Blogger Ray - SoCal July 13, 2020 11:08 PM  

China's diesels and missiles would do a job on the US Navy.

Some of the area around the Paracel Islands is shallow, and the US is not set up for that type of area at this time.

And lots of different claims in the area. China has done an amazing job of bullying everyone, and nobody has dared stand up to them till now. So they keep on nibbling, taking more and more bites of the area. The US is finally pushing back a little diplomatically, which is a huge change. Reality is China just ignores the diplomatic noise, and keeps doing what they are doing. Using lots of illegal bullying methods, which is more of a soft, unofficial war, than actual attacks.

China is investing in ways to make it so submarines are not so invisible.
>US submarines will obliterate the CCP navy.

Blogger SirHamster July 13, 2020 11:31 PM  

Andrew Jackson wrote:There's only one problem with the Syracuse theory , US submarines will obliterate the CCP navy. Like the Marines and paratroopers they are overwhelmingly whiteguys.
US Navy ships have been wrecking themselves and burning down in the absence of overt hostilities.

Talking about the relative superiority of US armed forces to other countries is completely irrelevant to the rot in the foundation that will lead to collapse.

The persistence of an empire does not depend on relative strength, but absolute strength. The US Empire's strength has been sapped by corruption and diversity.

It is not the storm that destroys the rotten tree. The tree is destroyed by rot, and then the storm reveals it.

Blogger Andrew Jackson July 13, 2020 11:40 PM  

To Snidely: I forgot more history then you'll ever know. American subs sank 8 Jap carriers in WW2,more than any other platform. The CCP will do a sneak attack ,anything else will mean annihilation.

Blogger Andrew Jackson July 13, 2020 11:48 PM  

I find the concept of you guys parroting CCP propaganda amusing!

Blogger JovianStorm July 13, 2020 11:57 PM  

China is having serious issues not just with the quality of its spoiled only - child soldiers but the cutoff of stolen tech from the West.

Without a constant stream of stolen IP, most Chinese engineers can only sit around and design powerbanks for Huawei phones. The intelligence advantages of infiltrating comms was put to rest by kicking out Chinese tech.

China ain't going to win and the US ain't going to lose but it's going to be really really really messy.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash July 14, 2020 12:35 AM  

Andrew Jackson wrote:I forgot more history then you'll ever know.
Evidently not.
Who won the Peleponesian War?
What single military event paved the way for their victory?
Who was Pyrrhus?

Blogger pnq87 July 14, 2020 12:56 AM  

Maybe Trump prayed to God for wisdom about whether or not to confront China militarily and that burning Navy boat in San Diego was God's response.

Blogger OldFan July 14, 2020 12:59 AM  

Here is my prediction/analysis:
1) Those Chinese island bases are beyond mutual support range - they can be taken one at a time. They are also on tiny, barren outcroppings: no jungle fighting here.

2) This will make the wholly untested Chinese Navy come out for a showdown - which they will lose (possibly inflicting some surprising losses, but they will lose).

3) The whole thing will be labelled an "incident" and will lead to face-saving negotiations where the Chinese get to claim a few islands as their territory, but not the whole thing.

4) Trump will rightly call it a win while the Media goes nuts.

Trump might be Constantine, the Roman Emperor who kept the empire going for another two centuries.

Blogger Andrew Jackson July 14, 2020 1:06 AM  

Sparta,wow that was hard!

Blogger Andrew Jackson July 14, 2020 1:09 AM  

I went to Catholic school Snidely.

Blogger Andrew Jackson July 14, 2020 1:17 AM  

The one thing I like about POTUS is his fanatical hatred of China!

Blogger Arthur Isaac July 14, 2020 1:39 AM  

I think American Empire must ruin itself to get resolution on China. Everyone is waiting for that show to drop before potentially throwing in against the New regional hegemonic power. China is going to bite off more than it cares to chew like hyper-chauvinistic overreachers always do. It might take a decade to play out and we won't be watching it on television here in what is left of the States.

Blogger Arthur Isaac July 14, 2020 1:44 AM  

Speaking of history Andrew Jackson, how was Russia supposed to contribute during WW1? How did they actually contribute? How would you explain their performance at Port Arthur?

Blogger Snidely Whiplash July 14, 2020 1:54 AM  

Andrew Jackson wrote:I went to Catholic school Snidely.
And it obviously did you no good. Perhaps you should re-read the original post. Oh, wait, reading comprehension.

Go watch tv or something.

Blogger Megamerc July 14, 2020 2:02 AM  

Ominous Cowherd wrote:Akulkis wrote:These sorts of contractors wouldn't be cheap -- they require security clearances.

I see many contractors with employees who could never get clearance. They are required to have escorts with clearances. The escorts are mostly cute kids, and none of them have any idea what the contractor's employees should be doing, or how to tell the difference between good work and sabotage.


Yup. Competent observers are necessary but too expensive and partially redundant. Someone in a government office somewhere thinks that a random 19 year old with a clearance is going to be competent enough to understand what the contractors and their employees are doing to infrastructure. Not the case at all. If they had that competence, they would not need uncleared personnel doing the work.

Blogger Megamerc July 14, 2020 2:11 AM  

Syracuse moment, mass immigration, economic fragility, political polarity, etc.

It is going to be bloody. Very bloody.

Blogger A trite re-white July 14, 2020 2:28 AM  

Probably true, but keep in mind that China is surrounded by vipers in the SC sea ie Vietnam Philippines Indonesia etc. All these countries are on the ascent and will gladly aide the US

Blogger Harambe July 14, 2020 3:06 AM  

rumpole5 wrote:What with the virus resurgence in Peking, the Himalayan humiliation at the hands of the Indians, and the present Yangtze inundations, I'm not sure that I would put my money on China to win either. They seem to have lost the mandate of heaven.

Here's my civilian take on the matter: War is generally won or lost based on money and manufacturing capacity. Terrorism (4GW if you will) exploits this by making the other side spend lots of money fighting them. It costs the mountain goat herder maybe $1 for every ten rounds of ammunition. It costs China maybe $1m to find and kill him.

America doesn't fight like that though. It sends aircraft that cost $100m each. And it sends them in squadrons launching from a ship that costs more than the GDP of some African countries.

Blogger Akulkis July 14, 2020 3:42 AM  

>> Talking about the relative superiority of US armed forces to other countries is completely irrelevant to the rot in the foundation that will lead to collapse.

We had major rot in the armed forces both in the late 1930's and again in 1950. The same Congress which demanded that the Army and Navy reduce their equipment BEYOND the proportion of the reduction in force structure then pilloried the army and navy for having artillery batallions with only 1 howitzer or cannon when North Korea invaded South Korea.

Desert Storm was the ONLY war that we've ever been prepared for, and that was because that army was built to take on the entire Warsaw Pact, with the possibility of China and N. Korea going hot again, too, both at the same time, with enough reserves to keep anybody from thinking about starting a small third war against any of our other allies.

Blogger Akulkis July 14, 2020 3:44 AM  

>> China ain't going to win and the US ain't going to lose but it's going to be really really really messy.

This. And that's because the rot that we do have INVITES countries like China to try to pull something. Weakness invites war. Self-inflicted institutional weakness invites big wars.

Blogger Akulkis July 14, 2020 3:46 AM  

>> CMaybe Trump prayed to God for wisdom about whether or not to confront China militarily and that burning Navy boat in San Diego was God's response.


Which could be interpreted either of two ways:

1) No.

2) Wait. Get the navy's incompetence problem solved first.

Blogger Akulkis July 14, 2020 3:51 AM  

>> 3) The whole thing will be labelled an "incident" and will lead to face-saving negotiations where the Chinese get to claim a few islands as their territory, but not the whole thing.


I doubt that when it's over, the Chinese will have anything more than a fishing boat capable of making it to those land-filled sandbars. And there will be NOTHING on them worth anything anyways.

The Chinese have also been stealing the wrecks of WW2 US, Japanese, Australian and British ships in the area. Divers in the Solomon Islands noted that complete ships have disappeared. That's entirely in contradiction to laws of the sea going back for a thousand years or more.

The more you understand the Chinese, the more you understand why the Japanese invaded them and were so ruthless. If they hadn't tried to take over half of the uninvolved islands of the Pacific, they would have been worth rooting for.

Blogger MEGAMUS Maximus July 14, 2020 4:23 AM  

All I see is a gamma male parroting neoconservative AMERICAN MILITARY STRONK propaganda.

It's amusing to see you project like an SJW. Seeing as the points brought up against your beloved US submarines and Navy weren't based on Chinese Propaganda of any sort. It's knowledge that the US Intel/Veteran's communities have discovered to their disheartenment.

And don't be deceived. If it were to happen, the Chinese will maneuver this to where the Americans will be the ones declaring War, the Neocons wet dream, and the ultimate Pandora's Box, since anyone with a bone to pick with USG, foreign and domestic, will reply in short order. I'd expect a new wave of world wide terrorism at that point aimed at anything remotely American or American supporting. Funny how, up until recently, the period between 2018 and early 2020 has been largely free of the large scale, highly visible, month after month Terrorism that was common place immediately after 9/11 and after the failed Arab Spring. Just don't expect this new wave to be religiously motivated.

Blogger Akulkis July 14, 2020 5:16 AM  

>> All I see is a gamma male parroting neoconservative AMERICAN MILITARY STRONK propaganda.


I am a serving member of the U.S. armed forces. Currently in a reserve unit. You know what -- if I thought we had no ability to handle China, I would be yelling it from the rooftops because the possibility of such a defeat would scare me out of my wits.

This isn't avoidance, it's noting that China has no capability to actually fight the war that they're provoking.

Blogger Akulkis July 14, 2020 5:29 AM  

By the way MEGAMUS Maximus, I served in both Desert Storm and the sticky spiderweb of Iraq. I'm not some uninformed newbie.

Blogger Boaty Bear July 14, 2020 5:31 AM  

Don't you mean *passed* their Horizon?
:)

Blogger Boaty Bear July 14, 2020 5:32 AM  

Is it more or less complicated if Nukes don't exist?

Blogger Boaty Bear July 14, 2020 5:34 AM  

If I were to take a guess, I'd not be surprised if Bannon was one of the civilians in the know about Q.

Blogger Boaty Bear July 14, 2020 5:58 AM  

Own incompetence or Huawei [Chy-knees] tech?
Re:Naval collisions.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan July 14, 2020 6:33 AM  

"We gonna kick Chinese butt" emphasis on "We" for humor. I'll go with Bill Lind's opinion that nuke powers don't fight and are desperate to keep it that way, with one caveat the next D-party admin will be a wild card.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd July 14, 2020 8:05 AM  

Akulkis wrote:This isn't avoidance, it's noting that China has no capability to actually fight the war that they're provoking.
I think that China won't provoke any war that they don't have a realistic plan to win. Their definition of win could be different than yours. Their plan to get there won't be the plan the Pentagon would have made to achieve the same goal.

Blogger Andrew Jackson July 14, 2020 8:07 AM  

Snidely wars of antiquity have no relevance in modern times.

Blogger Andrew Jackson July 14, 2020 8:10 AM  

Snidely: people believe what they want to believe.

Blogger tuberman July 14, 2020 8:21 AM  

@Akulkis

"...China has no capability to actually fight the war that they're provoking."

What's not mentioned is the Japanese and India have ships in with the USA group, so an attack on that group would be an attack on those countries too. Also, there are a least five other countries in the region backing these displays. If any of you are dumb enough to think Putin will back Xi, well, let's just say that those two are not friends or allies, as China has been very aggressive with Russia too lately.

There's been a huge amount of Chinese propaganda about how competent the Chinese military has become, and this was passed through by paid Cabal traitors to the USA, and the MSM.

A large part, but not all, of USA military is a 'Paper Tiger.' Yet, it's likely that China's military is worse, or a 'Paper Panda." Especially their navy. A lot of their weapons sent to the middle east were junk, but may not have been their best. The Chinese are more arrogant and expansionist then any other country right now (using finance first), but since some of their money is drying up, they've switched to naval aggression. Their usury is worse than the (((people))), which they are copying.

The running joke is that the Chinese do an incompetent job of copying the tech they steal.
It's not just their larp of a carrier, which can't even launch jets with weapons, but someone showed videos of their armor columns on parade pointed out absurd flaws in all their vehicle designs, and their troops literally break down and cry, as they are single children, so spoiled. Every troop excursion across their borders since 1979, the Chinese troops have been made to look like fools. Perhaps the one child rule was stupid from a military perspective. If only China had another Tibet, run by a pedo pacifist?!

Also, it's not about invading China or any other country, it IS about preventing China from expanding and turning a major portion of the oceans into their own private lake.

There are several sections of the US military being quickly revamped right now for a whole different kind of fighting, and these groups are not comped.

Blogger flyingtiger July 14, 2020 9:38 AM  

#62: Hush! We have the world convinced that nukes work. They are wasting their wealth on weapons that will never work.A lot of people are making good money off this fraud and we don't like blabbermouths like you.

Blogger DonReynolds July 14, 2020 10:01 AM  

My oldest son joined the regular Army in 2008 and was soon sent to Okinawa, Japan. He has been there ever since and went native, as they say. He married a Japanese woman and they have three kids. So I take an interest in the Chinese claims, since they include all of Okinawa, and even some Philippine islands.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd July 14, 2020 10:05 AM  

@97 proves the point in @98: people will believe all kinds of foolishness.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd July 14, 2020 10:28 AM  

Akulkis wrote:It really wouldn't take much to put a whole line of depth charges into the water set at minimum depth, and create a wave that would overwash one of these islands and immediately destroy every building, ...
That's an interesting thought. I wonder if that's possible with conventional weapons. It might take very precise timing of the explosions.
Akulkis wrote:. Any active radar is a target for a HARM (High speed Anti-Radiation Missile).
Unlike a ship, the islands have room for multiple transmitting antennas. I suspect they can figure out how to separate transmitting from receiving equipment, too. They also have room for significant anti-missile defenses, if they have workable gear.

OldFan wrote:Those Chinese island bases are beyond mutual support range - they can be taken one at a time. They are also on tiny, barren outcroppings: no jungle fighting here.
I wonder what is the strike range of the forces the islands can support? I wonder if the chinks took that into account when they sited their islands?
OldFan wrote:
2) This will make the wholly untested Chinese Navy come out for a showdown - which they will lose (possibly inflicting some surprising losses, but they will lose).

Their navy may well be destroyed. That isn't a good thing, but they may not see it as losing, if they can make a trade that works for them.

Remember, the enemy prepares for the war he wants to fight, and attacks at the time he wants to attack, to achieve the goals he wants to achieve.

Blogger Andrew Jackson July 14, 2020 10:52 AM  

China will attack Russia.

Blogger SirHamster July 14, 2020 11:17 AM  

Akulkis wrote:We had major rot in the armed forces both in the late 1930's and again in 1950. The same Congress which demanded that the Army and Navy reduce their equipment BEYOND the proportion of the reduction in force structure then pilloried the army and navy for having artillery batallions with only 1 howitzer or cannon when North Korea invaded South Korea.

1930s and 1950s didn't have the societal rot we have now ...

Akulkis wrote:2) Wait. Get the navy's incompetence problem solved first.
... so dealing with the traitors within should probably come before that.


Akulkis wrote:>> All I see is a gamma male parroting neoconservative AMERICAN MILITARY STRONK propaganda.

I am a serving member of the U.S. armed forces. Currently in a reserve unit. [...]

That was clearly directed at Andrew Jackson. Slow down a little.

Blogger Akulkis July 14, 2020 1:00 PM  

>> Snidely wars of antiquity have no relevance in modern times.

Any commander who doesn't study the wars of antiquity fought on the same ground he is fighting on is a fool.

The weapons and tech change, but the principles of war are timeless.

Blogger Akulkis July 14, 2020 1:05 PM  

>> That's an interesting thought. I wonder if that's possible with conventional weapons. It might take very precise timing of the explosions.

The 250-300 lb (explosive weight, not weapon weight) DC's of WW2 would launch a column of water 200 feet into the air, no problem. That's a lot of energy. In the middle of the ocean, no big wave. But the same energetic output on a shore line should create a substantial wave as the water gets progressively shallower.

Blogger Andrew Jackson July 14, 2020 1:30 PM  

Akulkis : I'm a Grant guy so you're statement means nothing to me.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash July 14, 2020 1:32 PM  

Andrew Jackson wrote:Snidely wars of antiquity have no relevance in modern times.
That's undoubtedly the stupidest single statement I've read in a long time, and I argue with flat-earthers.

Blogger Andrew Jackson July 14, 2020 1:46 PM  

" If men make war in slavish observance of rules ,they will fail.No rules will apply to conditions of war as different as those which exist in Europe and America...War is progressive,because all the instruments and elements of war are progressive" US Grant

Blogger Valar Addemmis July 14, 2020 2:11 PM  

>If men make war in slavish observance of rules

If you can start understanding the gulf between "no relevance" and "slavish observance of the rules", you'll start on the path towards wisdom...

Blogger Andrew Jackson July 14, 2020 4:16 PM  

Valar: Go back to the fantasy world you live in little boy.

Blogger Shimshon July 14, 2020 4:31 PM  

@109 "That's undoubtedly the stupidest single statement I've read in a long time, and I argue with flat-earthers."

Well, IMHO that's pretty stupid. But you are right, it's not as stupid as ignoring history, particularly military history, which is always relevant regardless of the technology employed.

I've read that the secular Jews who fought in the 1948 war after the declaration of the State of Israel studied the Bible they didn't believe in, particularly the Book of Joshua, and the war of conquest he waged, and learned lessons that helped them defeat the Arabs.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash July 14, 2020 4:38 PM  

Andrew Jackson wrote:Go back to the fantasy world you live in little boy.
Despite your pretension to a much better man's name, you are neither smart enough nor strong enough to tell men what to do.

Blogger Akulkis July 14, 2020 5:20 PM  

Our heroic President from the early 19th century must be rolling in his grave due to this scoundrel assuming his name.

Blogger Andrew Jackson July 14, 2020 5:28 PM  

I'm pushing some gamma boys buttons,ha,haa,ha,haaaa,ha,haa,ha!!!

Blogger Crew July 14, 2020 6:18 PM  

Perhaps this explains why there is so much effort to feminize America's military forces:

Books by unknown authors that are released by tiny publishers rarely sell many copies, but the work came to the attention of George E. Stratemeyer, a retired general who had been one of Douglas MacArthur’s commanders, and he wrote Beaty a letter of endorsement. Beaty began including that letter in his promotional materials, drawing the ire of the ADL, whose national chairman contacted Stratemeyer, demanding that he repudiate the book, which was described as a “primer for lunatic fringe groups” all across America. Instead, Stratemeyer delivered a blistering reply to the ADL, denouncing it for making “veiled threats” against “free expression and thoughts” and trying to establish Soviet-style repression in the United States. He declared that every “loyal citizen” should read The Iron Curtain Over America, whose pages finally revealed the truth about our national predicament, and he began actively promoting the book around the country while attacking the Jewish attempt to silence him. Numerous other top American generals and admirals soon joined Statemeyer in publicly endorsing the work, as did a couple of influential members of the U.S. Senate, leading to its enormous national sales.

Ie, payback.

From here: https://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-understanding-world-war-ii/#p_1_84:1-44

Blogger Pathfinderlight July 14, 2020 7:07 PM  

1) You're right. Until the Chinese sink lots of resources to make those artificial islands mutually defensible, defending them becomes a suicide mission during a war.

2) That is an expensive fight for them to take. Soldiers from high trust cultures might be willing to take an obviously losing fight if the leadership is confident it will lead to strategic victory, but China is not high trust.

Also, what would the CCP gain from risking its naval power?

3) Allowing China to claim manmade islands as territory would drastically change power in the sea, and make territorial disputes more likely, not less.

4) No one will be able to keep the USA running unless the demographic collapse can be reversed. So far, Trump shows no signs of being able to do that. He may be able to delay it long enough for us to install another leader who can.

Blogger Anti-Rationalist July 14, 2020 8:03 PM  

Akulkis, I see you're trying to score Good Boy points with your converged higher ups in the Military who believe the Neocon AMERICAN MILITARY STRONK propaganda. I'll take the word of the veterans who don't think George W. Bush is there Lord and Savior over someone who is almost certainly paid to reinforce the propaganda lie of his paymasters.

Blogger MEGAMUS Maximus July 14, 2020 8:04 PM  

Akulkis, I see you're trying to score Good Boy points with your converged higher ups in the Military who believe the Neocon AMERICAN MILITARY STRONK propaganda. I'll take the word of the veterans who don't think George W. Bush is there Lord and Savior over someone who is almost certainly paid to reinforce the propaganda lie of his paymasters.

Blogger MEGAMUS Maximus July 14, 2020 8:07 PM  

Andrew Jackson, I think you misunderstand. The only people here laughing is us at you, the Gamma Male who believes such stupid notions as Historical Battles not mattering (Ah, would it have saved Germany's Generals if they learned from Napoleon and didn't cuckout at the end) in the modern context and all the ridiculous drivel that's come out of your mouth in this comment thread.

It's not wisdom, or intelligence. It's Gamma Male Tomfoolery. And it's marvelous, seeing you project like an SJW while giving Bill Kristol handjobs.

Blogger MEGAMUS Maximus July 14, 2020 8:09 PM  

All I needed to see was someone claiming China would attack Russia to know that he was full of it. Yeah, America is going to lose against China because their brain trust thinks exactly like Andrew Jackson. Gamma males, all around. Go back to playing HOI4.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash July 14, 2020 10:13 PM  

Andrew Jackson wrote:I'm pushing some gamma boys
What you're doing is annoying the mods.

Blogger Andrew Jackson July 14, 2020 11:02 PM  

The CCP will not make the same mistake the Japs did,they will go for eastern Russia. They outnumber Russia 10 to 1,Russia will have to use nukes which is a bad idea.

Blogger Avalanche July 15, 2020 7:18 AM  

@66 "The US is finally pushing back a little diplomatically, which is a huge change. Reality is China just ignores the diplomatic noise, and keeps doing what they are doing. Using lots of illegal bullying methods, which is more of a soft, unofficial war, than actual attacks."

Ah, so kinda like Israel. Hmmmm, how much stranglehold does China have in our power structures? Yellow-monkey see, yellow-monkey do? They've already GOT Hollywood and academe... Oh, and our medical and nuclear science bastions. Anything else? Manufacturing? Hmmmm.

Blogger Avalanche July 15, 2020 7:35 AM  

@107 "That's a lot of energy. In the middle of the ocean, no big wave."

I still wonder about that 2011 Japan-sweeping tsunami... there was some 'conspiracy' questioning back then that an undersea nuke was involved, dropped/placed into a ground fault? Proof of concept?

Blogger Avalanche July 15, 2020 7:38 AM  

@116 "I'm pushing some gamma boys buttons, ha, haa, ha, haaaa, ha, haa, ha!!!"

This is a TOTAL gamma tell, is it not? I can almost see him stomping his feet and throwing his toy soldier from here...

Blogger Akulkis July 15, 2020 9:09 AM  

>> Akulkis, I see you're trying to score Good Boy points with your converged higher ups in the Military who believe the Neocon AMERICAN MILITARY STRONK propaganda. I'll take the word of the veterans who don't think George W. Bush is there Lord and Savior over someone who is almost certainly paid to reinforce the propaganda lie of his paymasters.


You think with all the race-realist stuff I write on here that I would let ANYONE in my chain of command know of my writings here?

Just how damned stupid are you?

Blogger Akulkis July 15, 2020 9:19 AM  

>> All I needed to see was someone claiming China would attack Russia to know that he was full of it.

Russia doesn't need to attack China. It's the Chinese that always start these fights.

China continually attacks Russia (both in the Soviet Union era and today) and always loses -- and that's interesting, given that the Russians have a MUCH longer logistics tail (going all the way to the Baltic Sea whereas China's is only a couple hundred miles from the border to their industrial centers).

Logistics beats not only tactics but even strategy. If you don't have the logistics to support what you're doing, it doesn't matter if you have a better strategy and better tactics. If your men are starving and out of ammunition, and your delivery trucks have no fuel, your force is ineffective against any opponent who has food and ammo, even without fuel.

Blogger Akulkis July 15, 2020 9:22 AM  

>> This is a TOTAL gamma tell, is it not? I can almost see him stomping his feet and throwing his toy soldier from here...

maybe not, but definitely twirling his glue-on mustache, like he's seen in the movies.

Blogger tuberman July 15, 2020 10:11 AM  

"The CCP will not make the same mistake the Japs did,they will go for eastern Russia. They outnumber Russia 10 to 1,Russia will have to use nukes which is a bad idea."

They will likely try, but they will fail. Putin is smarter than even Xi, and the Russian weapons, especially defensive, are very good, not expecting many Chinese weapons to work well. (Including their A2AD hypersonic missiles.) Attacking Russia would be China's Stalingrad.

Russian standard big cannons are said to have twice+ the range of China's similar cannons, up to 60K. These are ready for use today. This is not the 1980's. The Russians won't need nukes. Imagine big cannons, cluster shells, a huge stand-off range, then 10-1 means little. Target rich environment.

Blogger Akulkis July 15, 2020 12:01 PM  

>> Attacking Russia would be China's Stalingrad.

It is... every 10~15 years. Going on for at least a century now, but probably much longer.

Blogger Akulkis July 15, 2020 12:08 PM  

>> Russian standard big cannons are said to have twice+ the range of China's similar cannons, up to 60K. These are ready for use today. This is not the 1980's. The Russians won't need nukes. Imagine big cannons, cluster shells, a huge stand-off range, then 10-1 means little. Target rich environment.

Russia's love of artillery is probably greater than the rest of the world combined.

Berlin was destroyed in 194 by mile upon mile of Soviet artillery pieces emplaced almost hub to hub, with the fire for effect zone walked forwards in 25-meter increments, starting at the eastern edge and continuing westward until no buildings remained.

A few hundred years ago, at the State Armory building inside the Kremlin, they cast the "Tsar Cannon" with a whopping 1-meter bore. It's fairly impressive to look at. And despite the presence of several 1-meter diameter cannonballs, even the Russians believe that it has never been fired. Knowing the metallurgy of the day, the walls are likely much to thin to survive such an act.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd July 15, 2020 12:19 PM  

Andrew Jackson wrote:... Russia will have to use nukes which is a bad idea.
For decades the Soviet Union pushed the idea - in the West only - that using nukes was a terrible idea. There is no reason to believe that anyone in the Soviet Union, or Russia, believed their own propaganda.

If you believe nukes are a bad idea, you have fallen for Soviet propaganda.

Something that most people have a hard time grasping is that others don't act on what you believe, they act on what they believe.

If you believe nukes are a bad idea, and the Russians believe they are a good idea, the Russians will use nukes.

Blogger Andrew Jackson July 15, 2020 2:33 PM  

"Now they say that they never helped us.But it can't be denied that the Americans gave us so many goods without which we wouldn't have been able to form our reserves and continue the war.We didn't have anything to charge our rifle cartriges with. The Americans really saved us with their gunpowder and explosives. And how much steel they gaves us,how would we have produced our tanks without American steel.Without American trucks we wouldn't have anything to pull our artillary" Marshall G.Zhukov. We will fight China together.

Blogger DAN III July 16, 2020 6:54 AM  

FUSA has been at war with the ChiComs since Clinton and the 106th CONgress stabbed this once great nation in the back with PNTR for the Red Chinese. Treason by Clinton and CONgress ! How does FUSA conduct a shooting war with the ChiComs when they provide 35% of all foodstuffs consumed in the country ? How do you shooting war with the ChiComs when they and their proxies provide the batteries used to power NODs, Red Dot sights, LPVO rifle scopes and other Warfighter electronics/equipment ?

Want to war with the ChiComs ? Start by arresting Bill Clinton and every member of the 106th CONgress who voted for ChiCom PNTR, for sedition and treason. Then announce to the American people there will be no tariff on ChiCom produced parts, food, clothing, electronics and anything made in Red China. Container ships bringing the ChiCom junk to FUSA will be forbidden entry to American ports. Those running the blockade will be outright torpedoed !

Lastly, arrest CEOs and corporate board members for selling out their technologies and product production to the ChiComs. Arrest for SEDITION any US.gov tyrant opposing the above actions. Start by arresting for sedition Pelosi, Schumer and McConnell and his ChiCom wife !

Blogger MEGAMUS Maximus July 17, 2020 6:39 PM  

Andrew Jackson is a confirmed gamma at this point. The fact that he is only now behaving is a miracle.

Blogger MEGAMUS Maximus July 17, 2020 6:43 PM  

Ah, Akulkis. Still missing the point of what I'm saying. The fact that you're now just parroting obvious neoconservative AMERICAN MILITARY STRONK agitprop tells me that a) Veterans not in service > active service men and b) Indoctrination is strong in USG military now.

If it's the nonsensical claim of a War between Russia and China (NEVER HAPPENING), then it's trying to use personal claims to disprove factually true statements (Like you did, claiming that your actions somehow disprove a demonstrated point).

Yep. Witha braintrust like this, the last tjing I'll count on USG to do is win the next war.

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