ALL BLOG POSTS AND COMMENTS COPYRIGHT (C) 2003-2020 VOX DAY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION IS EXPRESSLY PROHIBITED.

Wednesday, August 12, 2020

This time, it's different

Nate Silver attempts to explain that although Joe Biden's lead over Donald Trump is even bigger than Hillary Clinton's was, he's giving Creepy Joe a much lower percentage chance of winning the U.S. Presidential election than the 89.2 percent chance he gave Hillary on August 15, 2016.
Joe Biden currently has a robust lead in polls. If the election were held today, he might even win in a landslide, carrying not only traditional swing states such as Florida and Pennsylvania but potentially adding new states such as Georgia and Texas to the Democratic coalition.

But the election is not being held today. While the polls have been stable so far this year, it’s still only August. The debates and the conventions have yet to occur. Biden only named his running mate yesterday. And the campaign is being conducted amidst a pandemic the likes of which the United States has not seen in more than 100 years, which is also causing an unprecedented and volatile economy.

Nor has it been that uncommon, historically, for polls to shift fairly radically from mid-August until Election Day. Furthermore, there are some reasons to think the election will tighten, and President Trump is likely to have an advantage in a close election because of the Electoral College.

That, in a nutshell, is why the FiveThirtyEight presidential election forecast, which we launched today, still has Trump with a 29 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, despite his current deficit in the polls. This is considerably higher than some other forecasts, which put Trump’s chances at around 10 percent. Biden’s chances are 71 percent in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, conversely.
Except, of course, the difference is that Biden is going to be beaten even more decisively than Clinton was. Let's just enjoy this little meltdown from Election Night 2016. "Look, this election is over. Trump cannot win! I think Hillary will have 320 electoral votes when all is said and done."

Labels: ,

67 Comments:

Blogger My 1 millionth internet profile August 12, 2020 8:16 AM  

In other words, a Trump victory would require a much bigger polling error than what we saw in 2016.

Sometimes it's fun when the kids act like they're adults and talk authoritatively about things they don't remotely understand, but it always reaches a point when they need to be quiet and just go to bed. Pollsters reached that point in 2016.

"Polling error" indeed. FiveThirtyEight needs to stick to attempting to convince people that the pace of play in the WNBA has never been higher.

Blogger Emmanuel August 12, 2020 8:41 AM  

Since we are looking at feelgood clips, I loved that Breitbart article :

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2017/11/08/2016-election-night-flashback-top-14-media-meltdowns/

Blogger Daniele Grech Pereira August 12, 2020 8:55 AM  

For the last 4 years, me and my friends have been the vultures in that thumbnail. The time draws nigh, the feast will begin shortly. The greatest celebration of our times is upon us!

Blogger tuberman August 12, 2020 9:01 AM  

Of course, many, many people who will vote for Trump will not take your polls, Nate. They do not trust poll takers. You get accurate polls by knocking on doors, stating who you are...so who's doing that?

What we constantly see the DEMs and their various minions (including poll takers) in denial. The DEMs are 'high on their own supply,' and believe they're going to win.

Blogger ChipsAndSalsa August 12, 2020 9:09 AM  

The polls are intended to do two things: Increase the Left's morale and provide cover for widespread vote fraud. The poll results that are published are never intended to be accurate.

I'd bet their internal polling is much closer to ground truth. Has to be. They'll cheat, but the cheating needs to be believable.

Blogger Rek. August 12, 2020 9:11 AM  

Had never seen the video. Cenk just losing it and blabbering on insanely. Man thats Beirut level meltdown.

Blogger Brett baker August 12, 2020 9:15 AM  

The history books will speak of the Glorious November 2020.

Blogger Gettimothy August 12, 2020 9:15 AM  

spewed at the "Feminist does not like numbers" subtitles!


The only suspense is if she will go make a sandwich!

Blogger Gettimothy August 12, 2020 9:20 AM  

Ok, "538 still has it as 50/50" topped the sammwiches. Hilarious!

Blogger MATT August 12, 2020 9:29 AM  

When I need a good laugh I watch this

https://youtu.be/fT0AjmeJ_sg

Blogger Mr.MantraMan August 12, 2020 9:43 AM  

Didn't the pollsters get a slight bit of cred back from 2018? Other than that I think Mr. Silver is suffering from the Jewish Meltdown, anxiety that conservatives are not sincere in their genuflecting and might revert back to their "Christian Nazi" roots and from their own leftist allies who stand behind them knives at the ready.

Smert people they are.

Blogger Happy Camper August 12, 2020 9:44 AM  

I'm waiting for the first transgender black woman in a wheelchair for president!

Meh, so tired of the meltdown from the left.

He won, get over it.

I predict he will win again.

Blogger Reph August 12, 2020 9:52 AM  

Nate Silver had successfully predicted a few things with his past models. Oddly, his predictive power diminished when he sold out.

Blogger rikjames.313 August 12, 2020 9:53 AM  

In Michigan, there was an anti affirmative action measure on the ballot, 15 years ago. There was a 15 point swing between how people said they voted on the exit poll, and how they really voted.

In 2020 a voter can easily lose their job, their social memberships, and have their child punished in school for not supporting Joe and the indian. Add in that the media poll companies are obviously lying, worse than they did in 2016, to create the impression of a (false) wave of overwhelming support for their side.

Blogger Scuzzaman August 12, 2020 10:00 AM  

The bit about Cenk being at war with the DNC caught my eye, so I went and watched a couple of his more recent videos (we all have to make sacrifices from time to time). Anyway, Cenk's not at war with the DNC. He's doing what any self-styled liberal progressive does at this point, stumping for the corporate criminal candidate and talking about trying to influence the pervert after he ascends to the most powerful elected office in the world.

Because we all know that's how leverage works, right? It works even better after the other side of the power imbalance is multiplied by over 9,000.

Blogger The Lab Manager August 12, 2020 10:02 AM  

Man, sure wish I could vote a party that hates white people and Western civilization and America, anti-gun, pro child molesters/bestiality/transweirdo/queerdo, pro illegal immigration, anti police and pro violent felon, wants to tax me to oblivion, more green energy stupidity and destructive energy policies, wants me to pay for illegal's healthcare, wants open borders, and I'm sure I'm missing something but these are highlights.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd August 12, 2020 10:14 AM  

ChipsAndSalsa wrote:I'd bet their internal polling is much closer to ground truth. Has to be. They'll cheat, but the cheating needs to be believable.
The cheating needs to be believable, and directed, and effective. I suspect they lost in 2016 because they were believing their own lies, didn't arrange to cheat enough in the right places. Trump won big in places they didn't expect to need to cheat much, or at all.

This time I expect the Left to pull out all the stops, with over the top cheating everywhere. 200% turnout, 100% for Joe and the Hoe, in every part of the Hillary Archipelago. The Post Office was probably planning to ``find'' semi-loads of ballots after the election, until Trump purged their top brass.

Whoever wins, the other side isn't going to accept this election as legitimate. Cheating or not, it really won't be legit, because how can one nation elect a government for another nation? That's the real reason no one can accept the elections as legitimate: the many nations within our borders cannot live together in peace, cannot stand having the same government.

Blogger Maniac August 12, 2020 10:22 AM  

Am I right to feel uneasy about mail-in ballots?

Blogger Requited Hate August 12, 2020 10:30 AM  

Neither Texas nor Georgia are in play for Biden.

Blogger Damelon Brinn August 12, 2020 10:31 AM  

"Polling error" indeed.

Yeah, their polling error was that they couldn't believe the numbers they were seeing, so they kept "weighting" the D score higher. They were all doing it.

Weighting can make you more accurate with small samples--if your assumptions are correct. If nothing has changed since the previous elections you're basing your assumptions on, great. But if something has changed, like Trump appealing to Rust Belt voters who had checked out of previous elections, weighting just pushes you further from the mark than if you'd reported the raw numbers.

Here's another inspiring election night video. Can't wait to relive it; it's going to be even better this time.

Blogger rikjames.313 August 12, 2020 10:36 AM  

Maniac wrote:Am I right to feel uneasy about mail-in ballots?

In 2016 with normal safeguards there was massive fraud in Detroit, most famously in one of the poll places where 50 voters cast over 300 ballots for Hillary and none for Trump. That was in person with scanned ID cards in to a computer system.

An investigation showed it was racist to investigate the reasons why and all the fruad was dropped.

What will the dems do with no need to scan ID cards forst?

Blogger Jeff aka Orville August 12, 2020 10:36 AM  

@18 Nah, Trump's guy just fixed the Postal Orifice. Dems went "Noooooo...not my post officerino!

Blogger SemiSpook37 August 12, 2020 10:45 AM  

I prefer the Dame Pesos version of the TYT meltdown from 2016, as it NEVER gets old. He's also had subsequent ones for 2018 (where the Justice Democrats didn't do as well as Cenk and company had hoped), and several for the earlier part of the 2020 primary season, including Cenk's run in CA-25 (where out of 3 possible candidates with enough cash on hand to win, he ended up in 4th, behind the previous R seatholder).

Seriously, talk about a total lack of self-awareness and hubris thinking that your philosophy, and said philosophy alone, is the only one that matters to the point you constantly harp on others to the point people just point and laugh at you.

As for Silver's "prediction", we've gone past insanity at this point. This is a legitimate mental defect we're dealing with here.

Blogger Ska_Boss August 12, 2020 10:57 AM  

Do people still think that Nate Silver isn't a completely bought and paid for shill? All my friends who loved to quote 538 last election won't even talk to me anymore because I told them those polls were wrong and Trump was going to win.

Blogger Doom August 12, 2020 10:58 AM  

Depends. As with the courts, how much of it is rigged? If the election is merely deepstate theater, than Biden may well be the president of choice, especially with Kameltoe in... tow. I trust the courts at least as much as I trust elections. Next in line of trust is going in for a land war in Asia.

Blogger Great Odin's Raven August 12, 2020 11:03 AM  

Thanks Vox, I had almost forgotten how fun/funny that night was.

Blogger carnaby August 12, 2020 11:19 AM  

12:18 Cenk Kadir Uygur: We are going to rebuild the Democratic party to a point where they are going to be afraid of us.

Nominating Biden is part of that plan?

Blogger Dole August 12, 2020 11:20 AM  

This time it's different should be the motto of these people. They keep doing the same thing again and again expecting a different result. Einstein's definition of insanity.

Oh, how president Trump's winning chance corrects itself in a matter of minutes on the Young Turk video. The model builders should watch it in repeat. Personally I can only tolerate so much of these videos, considering them a spoiler for the Trumpslide 2020. Pop corn supply will be devastated once more.

Blogger swiftfoxmark2 August 12, 2020 11:34 AM  

Sleazy Joe is a worse candidate than John Kerry in 2004 and he was a terrible candidate.

They're saving their radicals for 2024.

Blogger Rowan August 12, 2020 11:37 AM  

Don’t worry, the gray lady has broadcast the winning strategy:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/11/opinion/trump-election-day.html#commentsContainer

They’ll show us!

Blogger Shane Bradman August 12, 2020 11:46 AM  

After Nate Copper's disastrous prediction last election, who could possibly take him seriously? The answer is all the other poll-obsessed idiots who got it even more wrong than he did.

Blogger JamesB.BKK August 12, 2020 12:02 PM  

Thanks man. I could not watch it all but I do remember that day. From such a deep disappointment to a surprise and exhilarating turn in favor of The Dumb Dumbiest Man Ever: What a blast. White lash!

Blogger SemiSpook37 August 12, 2020 12:04 PM  

carnaby wrote:12:18 Cenk Kadir Uygur: We are going to rebuild the Democratic party to a point where they are going to be afraid of us.

So afraid that one of the guys on the dais that night, Jimmy Dore, has since disassociated himself with you guys and has been attacking folks like Bernie Sanders for selling out? The same guy who thought he was so tough to spit on Alex Jones after he and Roger Stone crashed TYT's broadcast at the RNC? That guy?

Blogger Dr Caveman August 12, 2020 12:07 PM  

Biden is so popular that I haven't seen any Biden signs or bumper stickers in my university town, and my academic twitter is mum as well. Both groups were very vocal Clinton supporters, but now no one wants to be seen openly supporting Biden.

This election is going to be a massacre. Might even flip Chicago, if the looting and rioting persists.

Blogger crypto.fashion August 12, 2020 12:31 PM  

Wear the shirt!

Blogger Reprehensible Adam August 12, 2020 12:36 PM  

Mmmm that felt good.

Blogger Geir Balderson August 12, 2020 12:54 PM  

All President Trump has to say in his campaign ads is this. The Democrats will raise your taxes, bring in more lawlessness and open the borders.

As for Chunk Yogurt, he is rancid and long past his 'best buy' date.

Blogger Jack Amok August 12, 2020 1:13 PM  

They'll cheat, but the cheating needs to be believable.

The fake pools are part of the prep to make it believable. "See, we said Creepy Joe and the Warden Hoe would win."

Biden is so popular that I haven't seen any Biden signs or bumper stickers in my university town

Yeah, the Hillary signs were scares four years ago, and the Biden signs are a order of magnitude fewer.

Blogger Long Live The West August 12, 2020 1:31 PM  

"This election is going to be a massacre. Might even flip Chicago, if the looting and rioting persists."

Won't ever go that far. They will never accept the world for how it is. Ive seen several conservatives in my life complain about how Trump was 'escalating' the situation and how he plays a big part in there being riots. I suppose that fear is the biggest motivator of all, and it might convince a bunch of libs to secretly vote for Trump. But, it will never be in the numbers needed to flip Chicago.

Chicago will burn in time and make Detroit look wonderful.

Blogger Primus Pilus August 12, 2020 1:35 PM  

The Lab Manager wrote:Man, sure wish I could vote a party that hates white people and Western civilization and America, anti-gun, pro child molesters/bestiality/transweirdo/queerdo, pro illegal immigration, anti police and pro violent felon, wants to tax me to oblivion, more green energy stupidity and destructive energy policies, wants me to pay for illegal's healthcare, wants open borders, and I'm sure I'm missing something but these are highlights.

Yeah, that party is pretty awful, but the problem is the Democrat party is even worse.

Blogger RadixMalorum August 12, 2020 1:48 PM  

Looking forward to the The Young Turks election night meltdown 2020 edition.

Blogger Derrick Bonsell August 12, 2020 1:56 PM  

Biden hasn't even been campaigned much against. Hillary's negatives weren't even in the mind of the electorate until Trump made them an issue. I'm not calling for Trump to be re-elected or anything but the polls need put into context. With all that Trump's been subjected to it's amazing he's not behind further, and who can forget the August polls putting Hillary as high as 13% more than Trump?

Blogger Damelon Brinn August 12, 2020 2:08 PM  

Cenk Kadir Uygur: We are going to rebuild the Democratic party to a point where they are going to be afraid of us.

Why would a party with a huge lead against an incumbent need to "rebuild"? Do they listen to themselves when they talk?

Blogger Ominous Cowherd August 12, 2020 2:36 PM  

Derrick Bonsell wrote:With all that Trump's been subjected to it's amazing he's not behind further ...
Trump is a master of rhetoric, and a master at manipulating the media. A big part of that rhetorical mastery is nothing more than saying what most Americans are thinking but didn't dare say in public:
``Make America Great Again,'' ``Build a wall,'' ``Crooked Hillary,'' ``Thank God.''

The bowtie brigade thinks that stuff is shallow and embarrassing, but that stuff is true, which makes it deep and profound. Trump isn't embarrassed to speak the truth. That's why Trump wins and wins, and the bowtied cuckservatives lose and lose.

Blogger Dole August 12, 2020 2:51 PM  

@34 You would be better off trying to find Big Foot than a Biden supporter.

Blogger ZhukovG August 12, 2020 3:23 PM  

Ominous Cowherd said,
"Whoever wins, the other side isn't going to accept this election as legitimate. Cheating or not, it really won't be legit, because how can one nation elect a government for another nation? That's the real reason no one can accept the elections as legitimate: the many nations within our borders cannot live together in peace, cannot stand having the same government."

This, IMO, is an excellent observation. When one nation selects the government of another nation the relationship is Conqueror to Conquered.

Blogger CarpeOro August 12, 2020 4:06 PM  

The end part, where they talk about ending being civil... They hadn't been civil in decades by anyone's understanding of the word but their own. To many years of redefining the meaning of building block words like "is" I guess.

Nate Silver once again demonstrates verbal IQ doesn't equate to mathematical IQ. When you look at the poll numbers and realize they don't correlate to actual results, anyone with average IQ decides that it isn't worth placing faith in them. The math ain't that hard.

Blogger Sterling Pilgrim August 12, 2020 4:56 PM  

After watching that video, I can’t stop giggling. And though Chunk was correct in that they’ve ratcheted up the fear among Americans, that fear is gonna fuel votes for the Very Stable Genius.

Blogger Arthur Isaac August 12, 2020 5:25 PM  

Anna, an Armenian on a show called the "Young Turks" talking about other women being dumb. That always gets me.

Chickens in support of Colonel Sanders.

Blogger Tom Bridgeland August 12, 2020 6:25 PM  

Mail-in won't be a problem. It's mostly in states already locked in for Biden. Who cares what Cali, Illinois or NY do? Dems persist in thinking their own small ponds are the whole ocean of voters. Trump didn't make that mistake so he won. Looks to be happening again.

Blogger Harvey Weinstein's Casting Couch August 12, 2020 6:37 PM  

Rasmussen predicted last election would be a toss up, and Trump ended up winning by 77 electoral votes. And they were considered the MOST IMPARTIAL of all the polls by and large.

The Dems have done litte to nothing to win back moderate voters into their favor. And Biden is a far weaker candidate than Hillary.

Trumo should win barring major fraud.

Blogger Crew August 12, 2020 6:49 PM  

@51: Sure, but the fact that Javier is willing to throw in with Creepy Joe suggests she believes the game is really rigged their way this time.

Why else would she get involved with a senile old pedo like that?

Blogger Ominous Cowherd August 12, 2020 7:27 PM  

Harvey Weinstein's Casting Couch wrote:And Biden is a far weaker candidate than Hillary.
Hillary was a stumbling drunk, a foul harpy that no man wanted and every women - even her supporters - hated instinctively. Her health was obviously failing. She had openly betrayed her nation, openly abandoned her employees to rape, torture and murder in Benghazi, openly sold her office.

It's hard to imagine, but I think you're right: Biden is a weaker candidate than that. Worse health, equally criminal, equally traitorous, and even harder to get enthusiastic about.

Blogger Akulkis August 12, 2020 7:49 PM  

>> Why else would she get involved with a senile old pedo like that?

She's out of office, and almost all women are attention-whores.

Whitmer is drunk on power, and couldn't be convinced to give that up in exchange for a slim chance of Joe winning, just to be put into the most neglected office in the land (with or without the executive incapacitation amendment).

Blogger Canadian Warlord August 12, 2020 8:12 PM  

If 'clips' is the theme - Bill Murray in "Ground Hog Day," first repeated day:
>>>"Chance of departure, 80 percent. 75 ~ 80."
It's statistically speaking, covering your a$$ because people will remember you warned them about the unthinkable actually happening. It's the soft, velvety soft way of saying you're going to lose.

TYT: "Kentucky, we don't care about Kentucky."
Exactly.

Blogger Joe Smith August 12, 2020 8:53 PM  

@Dole I can show you some; I know them personally. I mean, people that maintain Biden is their guy, prone to some gaffes but just as sharp as ever. They are boomers, so the ability to successfully lie to themselves has been beaten into them by 60+ years of nonstop psyops.

Blogger Damelon Brinn August 12, 2020 9:07 PM  

Why else would she get involved with a senile old pedo like that?

She ignored the California law requiring people who work with child actors to pass a background check. What indication is there that she minds pedos?

There's a lot of money in a losing campaign. Just ask Bernie.

It's also not unusual for someone with a lack of national name-recognition to run against a popular incumbent to build for the next election. When they lose, she can blame Creepy Uncle Joe and point back to when she said she believed his accusers, and meanwhile a lot more people outside California will have learned her name for 2024.

Some Democrats may think they have it licked this time, but they thought it was in the bag in 2016 too. There's no reason to think they're any smarter or more perceptive now.

Blogger Rough Carrigan August 12, 2020 9:55 PM  

Interestingly, despite all of Chunk's boasting and bluster about how hard lefties like him were gonna bend the DNC to their omnipotent wills, it's now been reported that the DNC is denying the Young Turks a press pass to the Democratic party convention.

Blogger xavier August 12, 2020 10:17 PM  

Why is anyone even giving Silver a platform. Nicolas Nassim Taleb's constant bitchslapping of Silver's 2016 work was sufficient to disqualify the latter from analyzing future elections

Blogger VFM #7634 August 12, 2020 11:01 PM  

As for Chunk Yogurt, he is rancid and long past his 'best buy' date.

Aside from that laughable congressional run, I thought Yogurt was done and TYT in the past already.

Thanks Vox, I had almost forgotten how fun/funny that night was.

I expect to be wasting too much time watching YouTube videos of leftist meltdowns if the Trumpslide happens again.

Blogger Akulkis August 13, 2020 6:59 AM  

>> Why is anyone even giving Silver a platform. Nicolas Nassim Taleb's constant bitchslapping of Silver's 2016 work was sufficient to disqualify the latter from analyzing future elections

1: (((Nate SILVER)))
2: He's a cheerleader for the Democrats.

Blogger Tee Stoney August 13, 2020 9:34 AM  

Classic.

Blogger MrNiceguy August 13, 2020 10:24 AM  

My personal favorite line from election 2016 came from someone on the Louder With Crowder stream. It was late enough that we could all see where things were going. Whatever network they had on cut to a shot of the Clinton campaign headquarters and someone commented, "They look like the Browns fans every Sunday."

Blogger SCBen August 13, 2020 8:56 PM  

SINK said now PRESIDENT TRUMP would be taking away our freedoms - hmm, now WHO seems to be the party of shutdowns and canceling freedoms? I've never watched that much of his "show" - not surprised by the vulgarity, but the completely insane "logic" of the group is off the chart! Didn't know Ben Mankewiez(?) was a young turd!

Blogger Crew August 13, 2020 11:44 PM  

They really think they have his defeat all organized!

https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2020/08/all-enemies-foreign-and-domestic-open-letter-gen-milley/167625/

Blogger Darren August 16, 2020 12:11 PM  

https://youtu.be/bRf0tvEIbz0 = direct link. So you go 2x speed the first few minutes of Team Arrogance being all high and mighty about Queen HRC.
Also, based on its comments apparently the video itself won't show up in YT search even with its full title The Young Turks Meltdown Election Night 2016

Blogger Darren August 16, 2020 2:12 PM  

Just watched 1977's The Kentucky Fried Movie.

A recurring joke was that Detroit is well known as being a s---hole, literally the worst place on the planet, being sent there worse than beheading-followed-by-torture.

Pretty sure 2020 Detroit has 1977 beat.

Post a Comment

Rules of the blog

<< Home

Newer Posts Older Posts