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Sunday, October 25, 2020

No "tossup in Texas"

Now the media is just getting high on its own supply:

Former Vice President Joe Biden has regained a narrow lead over President Donald Trump in Texas, after wooing more independents and Hispanics, according to a poll released Sunday by The Dallas Morning News and University of Texas at Tyler. Biden’s lead among likely voters is 48%-45%, within the poll’s margin of error....

“Texas remains a tossup because of the public’s attitudes toward President Trump,” said political scientist Mark Owens, who directed the poll.

I'm only posting this because I suspect it will be funny to compare it to the actual results. Meanwhile, 538 has actually bumped up Biden's chances from 77 percent a month ago to 87 percent today.

Election night promises to be a lot of fun watching the pollsters dance.

65 comments:

  1. I think I will pick up an appropriate vintage for election night this week.

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  2. What exactly is the poll's margin of error? 20%?

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  3. Imagine thinking Biden can win Texas after his oil comments.

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  4. I'm looking forward to the salty after-party, then the riots.

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  5. Where do you think the pollsters will have gone wrong?

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  6. "Election night promises to be a lot of fun watching the pollsters dance."

    Only if you want to hear the phrases "red mirage" and "mail in ballot" 500x...

    ... I doubt the Young Turks could possibly top their 2016 ongoing-meltdown...

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  7. His odds depend on his having built the greatest election fraud scheme in history. Well, not that alone, but that it function as intended. To be honest, I have seen snowballs in ovens have a better chance. But, there is his admission. I think the problem with a Biden win is... no one would follow. And Kamala? If you think creepy Joe couldn't get people to line up? Yea, not happening.

    Some think it might lead to a civil war. I don't. Or, the shortest war in history... or in the running. Was it the Hungarian, or Chec, dictator, who after Russia fell, he and his wife were put to? Yeah, it would be like that sort of war. Only, counting from when the people realize Russia wouldn't help the dictator puppets. I wouldn't call it a war, so much as an execution of a few.

    Or we are in a lot more trouble than I thought. I just don't think they have the means or will for anything but bluster, when it comes down to it.

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  8. Must be the Hunter Biden poll "bump". However, they added it to the fake poll numbers in a poor attempt to cover up the bumps Hunter snorts.

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  9. And there is more than enough supply for everybody.

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  10. I travel around Central Texas a lot. Biden has way more yardsigns in almost every city. I never understood why Abbott won handily yet Cruz was close for comfort vs beto. The schools in texas are majority Hispanic now, Trump should win, but the trend is not the GOPS friend.

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  11. I'm looking forward to seeing the election fraudsters dance as well. Preferably from a properly built gallows made by American labor and lumber.

    The Trumpslide can not be stopped!

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  12. corn is popped

    It’s a Lid! Trump Campaign Staff Says Joe Biden Will Not Do Any More In-Person Campaigning Until Election

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/10/__trashed-31/

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  13. What a sick manipulative game they keep playing. Demoralize the right to not show up. It's too obvious.

    But let's face reality. There's only 2 options really.

    1) The pollsters adjusted successfully from their errors and biases last election and the polls reflect an electorate that is so changed and anti trump from 4 years ago that Biden wins easily and even Texas is near done, signaling the end of the R party. All this happening despite riots, tranny rights, death of sports, and pedos popping up everywhere, with an old boring candidate who can't attract a crowd against an incumbant to boot.

    Or

    2) The margin of error is even farther off than last time due to Trump nervousness in polling AND the coastal media elites drowning in their own kool-aid. Seeing as Biden's numbers are the same or worse than Hillary's were 4 years ago, especially in swing states, running against an incumbant with fanatical support in the midst of insane riots that scared straight even left leaning moderates in the midwest you are looking at only one outcome; landslide.

    So basically, with the fudging and get the vote out by urban dems mixed with some demoralization by endless media blackpilling, Trump takes 2 of PA, WI, MI, or MN while keeping Arizona and NC easily. Ohio and florida are easy 5 point wins and he wins around the same 320 margin as last time.

    Has the electorate changed so much in 4 years that Biden can overcome the momentum in the midwest Trump earned AND the bulk of non faggy whites that now see the light? Is Covid really this distracting for Americans? Because if it is that big an issue then wouldn't that depress liberal in person voters that even mail ins won't make up for?

    Which Trump voters from 4 years ago aren't voting for him now and how does he not gain the remnant of old blue collar dems who finally see what color the sky is. Heck even the media is reporting his support among black and hispanics is sky high compared to the last 5 decades.

    Tl:dr white wannabe elites and above average iq cubicle workers with totally woke fb accounts have so fully absorbed woke tv culture that they believe that literally nothing exists outside of their created bubble. Only an 80 percent of total dem turnout can stop the Trumpslide.

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  14. A "narrow lead" in Texas means somebody cut a hole in the fence.

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  15. gonna be fun watching Chunky Yogurt nearly burst into tears again.

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  16. I'm in Fort Worth, nothing but Trump signs in yard and big flags in trucks. Of course when you poll from liberal stations and colleges the dem candidate will be leading...

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  17. The polls being this far off will build the case for Trump to win big on Nov 3rd then the ballot harvesting starts to make the final count reflect the polls. Desperate times for the democrats right now. They are facing an extinction level event for most of the old guard that are headed out to pasture.

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  18. And yet, in the last week, Obama has gotten active reminding us that Joe was his guy on the economy (like we can't remember the anemia ands mediocrity).

    If Texas was a toss-up, Trump would be going there, but he'll be in Pennsylvania two or three times this week.

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  19. Don’t know why it is such a suprise. I live in Texas and now feel like a total foreigner every time I walk into a store.

    It’s not just the Hispanics, huge numbers of East Asian, South Asians, and Middle Easterners have flooded into this state chasing jobs.


    If not this year, it’s only a matter of time before Texas is gone forever like California.

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    1. People refuse to accept that TX, FLA, GA, NC, and AZ are on the brink. If not this election, then by the next. Demographics don't lie & here in GA the left is quickly taking over the remaining traditionally Republican offices. The future of the GOP will have to be other states, and I don't see how they do it without TX & FLA.

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  20. Good to know there was a revenue drop in the texas market. Get those political ad buys in boys!

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  21. Biden has suspended his in-person campaigning. That is not the action of a candidate who has a chance of winning. It is the action of a loser with negative coat tails. The DNCCP is just trying to hold the house now. That's the only real goal they have left. The vote fraud will be focused on house races and close senate races.

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  22. Wise County and Collin County are for Trump. The difference being that Wise County is mostly farmland. Collin County is suburbs.

    I live in both areas. Four days on the ranch, then three days in the burbs.

    Farmers/ranchers are for Trump. In the burbs, if you own your house, then you are for trump.

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  23. @Doom:

    I believe you are thinking of Nicolae Ceaușescu of Romania.



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  24. >> poll released Sunday by The Dallas Morning News... When a publishing company does a poll, often they poll their own subscribes. And you know, accurate only for that subgroup in the poll.

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  25. I don't expect the MSM to declare Trump the winner regardless of what the returns are. I wouldn't be surprised if they prematurely and falsely call several states, and maybe the whole thing, for Biden and then insist that the final returns showing Trump winning are just more Putin election hacking, or some other nonsense.

    I expect Trump to win but I will be very shocked if the media and Democrats admit as much. Hell, they still refuse to admit that he won last time..

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  26. While Trump should hold Texas this year, as others have noted the demographic trends are horrific in the Lone Star state from a Rep. POV.

    Please tell me how Texas doesn't become in the next decade a permanent safe Blue state like the West Coast has?

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    1. Minority children/young adults 18 & under became the majority in TX in 2016. AZ in 2014. The only reason the states haven't already flipped is because that demographic tends to vote in smaller numbers.
      NC, FLA, & GA have been hammered with lefty and non-white migration the last few decades, and it has only sped up the last 4 yrs, not slowed down.
      Can't wait to move in the next couple of months.

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  27. Trump has a better chance of running the table than PedoJoe has of flipping one Trump2016 state, anywhere.

    You quit the last week of the campaign when you give up (this year) because you're losing huge, or like in 2008, 2012 when you are trying to lose and are accidentally not losing bad enough. McCain and Romney probably got the hell beat out of them with brass knuckles for not losing to Obammy big enough.

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  28. At this point I am assuming some of these pollsters dearly wish they could publish realistic projections, but they took the ticket long ago and are in fear for their lives/livelihood/families/you-name-it. They are being instructed what to do in no uncertain terms.

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  29. 949 extremely likely to vote or already voted.
    3.22% calculated margin of error.

    You never really know the true margin of error because you don’t know how representative the sample is until after the election, you don’t know who is lying either.

    Given what we know about pollsters tricks, a 3.22 percent margin of error is a ludicrous claim. Last election their real margin of error was far bigger than this.

    The “already voted” category implies they’re oversampling democrats again.

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  30. Hunter's Crack supply is definitely making the rounds amongst the MSM! Texas being "swing" is as likely as Biden being able to string together 10 words into a coherent sentence! Utter Drivel!

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  31. On the borser of the empire, in Poland, my government, under the guise of fighting covid, not only rise army from 50 000 to 250 000 beginning next January.
    They also open "field hospitals" (a FEMA camps).
    Here my follower do not believe in peaceful resolution of the 2020 Race.

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  32. Joe's gas tank hit empty already.
    Not a good choice for president then!

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  33. By the way, have the riots stopped? If so, that would be very odd. Just at the time the Democrats decided that tacitly encouraging the destruction of property, law and order wasn't an election winning strategy on Main Street. The riots stop. Huh!

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  34. Trump will hold Texas but it is one of the 3 states where he won by a smaller margin than Romney (Georgia and Arizona are the other 2). If a cuck like Romney got a larger % of the vote than an enthusiastically supported Trump just 4 years later, the pace of the demographic decline in those states must be tragic even by US standards.

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    1. They are. People keep ignoring it, but it's bad.
      There's a reason that the druggie black guy, Gillam, nearly won FLA, Beto the Irish nearly won TX, and Mammy Stacy Abrams nearly won GA, demographics.

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  35. On election night in 2016, no one would call it for Trump, even when it was obvious. All the news readers hemmed and hawed, talked about how awful it would be under a Trump presidency and how unlikely a path Hillary still had, but none of them would call it for Trump. You could feel how none of them wanted to be the first to confirm what they saw as the hateful truth, as if saying it would make it true and they would be blamed for it if they were the first to say it out loud. It wasn't until it was reported that Hillary had called Trump to concede would they admitted it.

    I can see the same thing happening this time with the whole red mirage bullshit. Trump will likely win on election night with Reagan like margins, but these propagandists will refuse to call it until every last car trunk is checked for mail in ballots. I pray to God that the margin of victory is beyond the margin of cheating.

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  36. RJ wrote:@Doom:

    I believe you are thinking of Nicolae Ceaușescu of Romania.



    Thank you. Yes. One of my favorites, Frodo. :p

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  37. While Trump should hold Texas this year, as others have noted the demographic trends are horrific in the Lone Star state from a Rep. POV.

    Please tell me how Texas doesn't become in the next decade a permanent safe Blue state like the West Coast has?


    There are indications that Latinos will start imitating working-class whites in their voting patterns due to the new Trump GOP. If Trump gets a majority of Florida's Hispanics, who are more right-leaning on average, it will be a bellwether. We may even end up seeing odd things like Mexican-Americans becoming dominant in California's GOP. The CA 12th House district special election was one indication.

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    1. 1st & 2nd gen Cubans have always voted GOP in Fla. The numbers are dropping precipitously in the 3rd gen & into the 4th. The mass influx of Central Americans & Puerto Ricans show them voting in the majority for the left, as one would expect. Central Americans here in GA vote overwhelmingly for Dems as do the Jews, blacks, Asians, Muslims, & Indians. I don't see any signs of major or minor shifts to the GOP.

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    2. The one thing the Bushes ever potentialky got right. "Natural conservatives"... Im white hispanic (silly classifications) and i dont know a single hispanic not voting trump. This includes my father who voted clinton bush obama and my sister who is a provost at a frikkin university.

      If Trump gets even 40 percent of latino vote the whole non coast west will be owned by repubs for the foreseeable future.

      Hey dems maybe latinos dont really live the gay tranny woke world and like blacks less than even rednecks do???

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  38. Cornyn is not much of a prize and more like old furniture, but his opponent, a fat tattooed cow who professes an oath to the US Constitution but supports everything contra to that will never have my respect. I spit on military people who support anti-gun views.

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  39. *All polls are +/-50% of course. Is there going to be an Alzheimers ceiling set up at the Biden camp that never gets broke?
    Can't wait. Literally shaking. Definitely not meth.

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  40. I think they are kidding themselves.

    For one, I see parity in lawn signs in my purple Dallas neighborhood. I saw nearly no Trump ones in 2016. I"m guessing that there are more that would post them, but don't want the hassle.

    Second, early voting is very busy. But I find it odd that so many people will go vote, but won't show up at a Biden rally.

    More interesting is bumper stickers. I think the only ones I seen are Trump, and Bernie.

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  41. Folks, I think TX is closer than is being acknowledged here. TX' souther counties are Democrat, as are the major cities; the major population centers are Democrat. Remember also that Robert Francis O'Rourke, aka Beto, almost BEAT Ted Cruz! Cruz won by less than 3 points. That's too close for comfort, Folks!

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  42. It's the main headline on Pinko Drudge too. It's amazing how crazy the media's gone.

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  43. Short term Trump will win Florida, but it will only be by like 3-5 points. Long term we're screwed. Californians are moving there en mass and have been for quite some time. Businesses don't like the high taxation and regulation that they've voted for so they relocate to Texas (Austin area mainly) and they bring their woke progressive workers with them who continue to vote blue.
    This coupled with high minority settlement ensures that in the next Presidential election after this Texas will be blue and Democrats will have full control hence force with an insurmountable electoral college lead because of Texas.
    Look at the last 20 years of voting data in Texas and see the lead dwindle every time. Sadly, it's going to turn for good soon.

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  44. It's coming to light that the Biden team was attempting unprecedented levels voter fraud in Houston. It's obvious the +3 shenanigans are attempts to validate suicidal and obvious voter fraud operations in Texas.

    The early and 'unprecedented' turnout was highly suspicious from my standpoint. While there are plenty of Biden signs in North Dallas, where I live, there appear to be plenty of Trump signs too (3 to 2 ratio), nor is support for Biden anything like what we saw in 2018 for Beto. Very fishy early-voting numbers coming out of Dallas, San Antonio, ect.

    The Democrats would have to commit anywhere between 5 to 10 points of voter fraud to win, however, and that much fraud is impossible to conceal (if law enforcement isn't totally compromised).

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  45. @Seth S

    I live in Texas as well. We are not seeing the same thing. My buddy, who's married to a latina, informed me that his wife is a part of some huge latina group (numbering in the 1000s). He went to a event where families were included. He stated that almost every single person he spoke with was supporting Trump. He asked if they wanted Trump signs, and they all said no -- they were afraid of losing their jobs.

    Trump supporters are seen at about every 10th intersection on the weekends. Haven't seen one Biden event (Houston). Friend just went to San Antonio, he reported the same. And this was before Quid Pro Joe's statement on stopping oil. I don't see him taking Texas. I'm actually, for the first time ever, opening an account and betting on Trump winning. Current spread it Trump +130. He wins, easy money. He loses, money will lose its value. I think this would qualify as being in the category of a "Pascal's wager".

    VD - The media and polls are showing Biden is going to win, which is meaningless. How do you explain the betting line favoring Biden?

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  46. There were firefights between BLM vs Hispanos in McAllen and El Paso that never made the news. A lot of working Tejanos and even the more recent Norteños Mexicanos are pissed over the attacks on Hispano heritage and the tearing down of their spiritual and literal forefathers. Most Hispanos I know are voting Trump, and I'm mostly around working class blue collar types, many who never registered to vote before. It's the college educated 30% who've made the bulk of the Hispano vote, now the 70% "uneducated" are going to the polls.

    It'll be interesting to see the racial breakdown after election day in Texas, and what the racial turnout was. I've never seen Mexicanos and Tejanos briefly stop fighting each other to fight a mutual enemy before.

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  47. Jason wrote:How do you explain the betting line favoring Biden?
    How big is the betting market compared to some random lefty billionaire's chump change?

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  48. There are indications that Latinos will start imitating working-class whites in their voting patterns due to the new Trump GOP.

    We've been assuming that the parties would become white versus non-white, and maybe that's still the end game. But in the meantime, the Democrats have gone so all-in for blacks and sexual deviants in the last few years that there's pressure for the split to be blacks/deviants/Jews versus everyone else.

    It's worth noting that this isn't a "Hispanics are natural conservatives" argument. They aren't, and if they vote Republican, it's not because they're becoming conservative. It's because they don't like having a bunch of gay Jews tell them they should take a back seat to black rioters.

    They still have to go back, but I'll take their votes in the meantime.

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  49. How do you explain the betting line favoring Biden?

    Betting lines are based on the money coming in. They basically try to balance it so that they have equal amounts invested each way. If the public is betting on Biden because they believe the polls, then you'll get odds on Trump.

    A bookmaker who believes the polls are bunk *could* shade the odds for Trump and make extra money that way, but doing that is dangerous, because if he's wrong he doesn't eat. It's safer for him to keep the sides balanced and live on the cut (usually 10%) that the house takes from each bet.

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    1. Sharps are coming in 3 to 1 on Trump. They know.

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  50. https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/10/breaking-president-donald-trump-takes-lead-joe-biden-rasmussen-daily-white-house-watch-4-point-swing-one-week/?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=PostTopSharingButtons&utm_campaign=websitesharingbuttons

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    1. Be careful with any "polling" website. Even ones that appear to be on the right side of the spectrum.

      Trafalgar seems to be the most neutral and hence most likely to be correct poll out there and he is saying a narrow trump 270s 280s range win.

      His methodology is spelled out and seems to the point and there doesn't seem to be too much bias, just what is the reality of a situation.

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  51. Jose Miguel wrote:I've never seen Mexicanos and Tejanos briefly stop fighting each other to fight a mutual enemy before.
    Ya'll will never be Americans as long as you're something else, but good people can be allies against a common enemy.

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  52. Rasmussen today:
    Trump Approval: 53%

    Trump v Biden v other v undecided:
    48-47-3-2

    TrumpSlide incoming

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  53. Trump will win Texas handily. I don’t think Texas demographically is as bad as people make it out to be. Most Hispanics live on the southern-west area of Texas (San-Antonia down). I can see Texas splitting into two or more homogenous states.

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  54. Trump will win Texas handily. I don’t think Texas demographically is as bad as people make it out to be. Most Hispanics live on the southern-west area of Texas (San-Antonia down). I can see Texas splitting into two or more homogenous states.

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  55. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1320843000575152131?s=20

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  56. Nate Bronze is now saying the polls have Biden so far ahead that the only way Trump could win is if there's an unprecedented polling error or the election is stolen somehow. Which is pretty much what I've been saying: they're pumping Biden up in polls--some of them, at least--to back up their claims after election day that Trump stole it somehow. Don't know what their argument will be; maybe that mail-in votes were thrown away. Hard to see it making any difference without any better evidence than "But our polls couldn't be that wrong, again some more."

    It's also Nate getting on record saying the polls *could* be that wrong. Always has all his bases covered.

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