Saturday, October 17, 2020

The Cookie polls

I reprehensively neglected to mention the all-important cookie polls in my recent Darkstream on alternative election indicators:

The real winner of the 2020 election might be this Pennsylvania bakery.

A family-owned bakery in the town of Hatboro claims that its election-themed cookies — which are currently flying off the rack — have accurately predicted the outcome of the past three presidential elections.

So far, they say sales indicate a clear leader for the 2020 race, too.

Lochel’s Bakery, located in Montgomery County just north of Philadelphia, had launched its most recent “cookie poll” about six weeks back, offering both “Trump 2020” cookies and “Biden 2020” cookies in red and blue, respectively.

"So far as of 10 a.m. Trump is in the lead 3 to 1," she told Fox News on Friday morning.

The original cookie poll, in Red Wing, Minnesota, concurs:

Opinions be what they may, but the only acceptable answer here comes piled high with red, white, and blue frosting, and can be found in Red Wing. Each costs $4, and will be counted as a vote for president. Sort of.

Every four years, Hanisch Bakery and Coffee Shop celebrates democracy in the sweetest way possible: by hosting the Presidential Cookie Poll. “It’s a fun election poll that just happens to be pretty darn accurate for some reason,” says Bill Hanisch, the establishment’s chief manager and owner.

In the 1920s, the bakery was called Quandt’s. It’s undergone several ownership and name changes since then, but Hanisch is sure the Braschler family conceived of the cookie poll we recognize today during the Mondale-Reagan election because he worked under them starting when he was 15 years old. Though he’s not certain why the poll first ran back in 1984, the current owner bets it was a simple move to drum up business.

When Hanisch bought the bakery in 2007, he understood he would also become ringmaster for a unique political circus that’s getting more unwieldy each election cycle. So far this year, Trump’s cookies have outsold Biden’s by a mile. 

The cookies have spoken. Trumpslide 2020. 

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Blogger Gregory the Tall October 17, 2020 8:17 AM  

Particularly significant is the fact that bulk buying is limited to 100 cookies per order effectively preventing George Soros from buying 50.000 Biden cookies at a time to distort the poll.

Blogger Guy Incognito October 17, 2020 8:19 AM  

And that's how the cookie crumbles.

Blogger AlienHeadRon October 17, 2020 8:34 AM  

Looks like those bakeries may be visited by some peaceful protesters in the near future.

Blogger #7139 October 17, 2020 8:53 AM  

Cookies Uber Alles

Blogger B-Rex October 17, 2020 9:00 AM  

how did they manage to capture the both the flavors of dementia and old-pedo in the Biden cookies? Truly their baker is an artist

Blogger tuberman October 17, 2020 9:01 AM  

Just watch as Mark Cuban (or perhaps George Himself) will send in a minion to Lochel’s Bakery to buy a couple hundred Biden cookies. They can't help themselves.

Blogger Parallax October 17, 2020 9:06 AM  

We’ve actually reached the point of asking the Cookie Monster how he’s going vote. On second thought, it’s an improvement.

Blogger Troy Lee Messer October 17, 2020 9:16 AM  

Vox, thanks for all the content on last few days.

Blogger Randomatos October 17, 2020 9:16 AM  

I wonder how often smart-alecs ask for Cthulhu or Giant Meteor cookies? GEOTUS still wins of course!

Blogger Conan the Cimmerian October 17, 2020 9:20 AM  

Red Wing - home of some of the greatest boots made. Had a pair of black lace up steel toes that lasted and lasted.

And get a cookie too? What a town.

Blogger Brett baker October 17, 2020 9:32 AM  

Complaints from paleo-dieters in 3..2...

Blogger A rebel without a General October 17, 2020 9:34 AM  

You suck I was going to say that pun.

Blogger ar10308 October 17, 2020 9:34 AM  

Hatboro, PA is a few minute drive from where my paternal Grandparents spent most of their lives. It is a nice white suburb of Philly, and it went narrowly for Clinton in 2016.

Blogger Crunchy Cachalot October 17, 2020 9:38 AM  

The cookie buying pattern is likely related to another recent growing pattern: “Especially this year, we’ve had a really large influx from the metro area, with people just trying to get out and enjoy themselves.”

Blogger MJ October 17, 2020 9:42 AM  

Wow, and these are supposedly battleground states. This supports what I've seen in terms of yard signs in SW Pa. Trump is ahead probably 2 to 1, and his supporters clearly put more time and effort into the design.

Blogger Avalanche October 17, 2020 9:43 AM  

@9 Flying Spaghetti Monster cookies!! With tentacles!

Blogger Avalanche October 17, 2020 9:58 AM  

OT, sorry, but, over at Peak Propserity:

The Coming Financial Crisis of 2021
Friday, October 16, 2020, 10:21 am

Economist Steve Keen issues new warning
With tens of millions of households having lost their income this year, personal savings becoming exhausted, government support programs on their way to drying up, and lots more company layoffs/bankruptcies/closures ahead -- economist Steve Keen expects a punishing recession to arrive in full force in 2021. (47.37 min.)

Blogger Zeroh Tollrants October 17, 2020 10:12 AM  

I was pulled into working for the GOP in my teens, helping my mother who was the top voting official for our state. I went on to do polling and grunt work on a gubernatorial campaign, (you're welcome, Newt), to a presidential campaign, (I didn't want Bob Dole to win, anyway), and I have always been good about guessing the election outcomes. I don't look at polls, because of my past as a pollster, but I've only been wrong once-I thought GHWB would get a 2nd term & the Perot turnout wouldn't be big enough to do real damage. Fun fact, my mother has guessed every single one right back to Nixon.
She's 84 now & doesn't care about national elections, any longer, but she offhandedly told me a couple of days ago that Trump will easily win, if they can keep the fraud down. She thinks they'll try and dribble in votes for weeks and erode his election night decisive win, which confirmed what I thought.
Nothing earth-shattering, lots of people have shared the same beliefs as ours, but I thought I would share our joint feelings as people who have done polling & watched over many, many elections at polling stations.
In December 2015, I began making friendly bets with different folks I come in contact with thru my job, that Trump would win. I made $15,500 on election night, Nov 2016, but no one cared, because I'm a nobody, lol.

Blogger Nostromo October 17, 2020 10:20 AM  

They did this in a Rick and Morty episode. "Simple Rick Wafers" infused you with the warm glow of Rick being a good father to Beth.

Blogger Lazarus October 17, 2020 10:44 AM  

In ancient times in these here parts, they had burger polls at the fair. Then, you could get a burger for 1/4 the price of them damn cookies.

Blogger van helsing October 17, 2020 10:57 AM  

remember sesame street? cookie!

Blogger Matthew October 17, 2020 11:16 AM  

So that's why you say '
Smart Cookie' as a compliment.

Blogger phil g October 17, 2020 11:36 AM  

But the national polls Vox!!! The polls!!!

Blogger Doktor Jeep October 17, 2020 12:20 PM  

KI hope only for a Trumpslide because it will push the enemy even further.
But it's a win-win if Trump loses. A Trump loss will finally prove once and for all that no matter how much you give to the Blacks & Hispanics™, they still vote (D).
It would be an expensive lesson to learn, having to deal with Kabala (That's no typo, look it up) Harris. But one that will finally usher in vote-by-identity which everybody except whites are already doing in spades.
A Trump win is looking like the case, but I have been in the ring myself, thinking I got the moves, and got punched in the face. Kicked in the head even. So I had to learn how to think while punch drunk. So I'm expecting to enemy to pull some serious crap. In fact I look forward to it.

Blogger Reader October 17, 2020 1:41 PM  

One doesn't see pedophiles, Satanists, the deranged and demented, parasites, thugs, and all the other creatures who would vote for Biden as the kind to stop off at the local bakery for cookies. One imagines that a similar poll of those who frequent crack houses would have Biden winning in a landslide. Still, the cookie poll is a tasty morsel of reality. Good people love good cookies love President Trump.

Blogger Karen took the Kids October 17, 2020 2:31 PM  

Surprised the queers haven't shown up for rainbow cookies yet.

Blogger kurt9 October 17, 2020 7:45 PM  

What about the Senate?

Blogger Rex Little October 17, 2020 8:03 PM  

Nobody's enthusiastic enough about Biden to buy his cookies. The people who vote for him will do so because he's not Trump; they'd vote for the undead corpse of Richard Nixon if that's who the Dems had nominated. I fear that there will be enough of them that Trump will lose.

Blogger My Comment October 17, 2020 9:24 PM  

The primary model has accurately predicted the winner of 25 out of 27 presidential races since 1912 when the first primary was held. It gives Trump a 99% chance of winning.

The only misses were 1960 when the Chicago mayor rigged it for Kennedy and 2000 the year of the hanging Chad

Blogger Ominous Cowherd October 17, 2020 9:56 PM  

@28, there are a lot of people who genuinely like Trump. TDS is a UMC disease. There just aren't that many Upper Middle Class, even counting the wannabes.

Blogger The Pitchfork Rebel October 18, 2020 1:40 AM  


There would be no silver lining if Trump loses. Biden, never as smart as he was clever is a rapidly diminishing man. He'd be allowed to be President for a while, as long as he was pliable to the crazy left and until one of his gaffes had some aspect of it that was so profound and toxic that none of the usual talking heads would even try to spin it as a benign slip.

Then Harris comes in. She stopped at nothing to obtain power and will stop at nothing in its exercise or enhancement. When she made the slip about "when I'm elected President", that was telling.

They'll open the borders, make DC and Puerto Ricos state to disenfranchise the red states Senatorial power, empower their allies in Silicon Valley and WAll Street and do everything to suppress and disenfranchise the right. Everything would be conditioned on verifiable right think.

I thank God every day for TGE. No matter what else he did, he saved us from Cankles. Despite my misgivings about Gorsuch, Hillary would have appointed three frothing at the mouth leftists and perhaps Breyer would have quit to let her have a fourth.

Blogger Dilbert19 October 18, 2020 6:26 AM  

I think a key metric here is that a true democrat won't buy the cookie with his own money. He has to convince someone else to buy it for him...

Could be an issue.


Blogger Dilbert19 October 18, 2020 6:27 AM  

I think a key metric here is that a true democrat won't buy the cookie with his own money. He has to convince someone else to buy it for him...

Could be an issue.


Blogger Bobiojimbo October 18, 2020 8:56 AM  

I trust these bakers and their sales numbers more than the MSM. Now I want a cookie...

Blogger Bezzle October 18, 2020 11:48 PM  

Make the Trump cookies Snickerdoodles and the Bidens black licorice.

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