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Tuesday, October 27, 2020

They rationalize too much

It's fascinating to see the media frantically citing the overwhelming Fake Poll numbers, as if by repetition they can stave off the approaching reckoning. And yet, they are observably worried that all the polls are wrong.

As Election Day approaches and President Donald Trump continues to trail Joe Biden by high single digits both nationally and in key states, their respective bases are buzzing with either hope or dread that "the polls could be wrong again."

In truth, public opinion polls are imperfect instruments, and there's always bound to be some degree of error, especially given the widely varying quality of the nation's pollsters. But Trump would probably need a larger polling miss than in 2016 to win re-election, and there's no guarantee a systemic polling error this year would run in his favor....

Fundamentally, the current polling in the 2020 race is different from 2016 in three important ways.

First, Biden's lead is larger and much more stable than Clinton's was at this point. Second, there are far fewer undecided and third-party voters left to woo — reducing the chances of a late break toward one side.

And third, the scores of district and state-level polls conducted by the parties to make spending decisions in down-ballot races generally align with national polls showing Trump running behind his 2016 pace, including in key states. In 2016, these same polls had shown flashing red warning signs for Clinton, particularly in districts with lots of white working-class voters.

The spinning won't stop until the Young Turks cry. Just for the record, let's note the prediction by The Economist.

95% Joe Biden 95% 249-421

05% Donald Trump 117-289

Trump winning the popular vote is really going to shatter them.

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24 Comments:

Blogger Karen took the Kids October 27, 2020 2:33 PM  

Got Trump at 10/2 and slapped 500 oh the table. Free money.

Blogger liberranter October 27, 2020 3:13 PM  

Just for the record, let's note the prediction by The Economist.

95% Joe Biden 95% 249-421

05% Donald Trump 117-289

Trump winning the popular vote is really going to shatter them.


If only.

We need to remember that rags like The Economist are Global Deep State assets. Their cedibility doesn't matter. The message of the people behind the curtain WILL be pushed at any and all costs.

Most of the same outlets made morons of themselves in November 2016, yet are still in operation. If they were truly independently owned, for-profit operations they would have humiliated themselves out of business back then.

Blogger Jack Amok October 27, 2020 3:47 PM  

and there's no guarantee a systemic polling error this year would run in his favor....

No, no guarantee other than the fact every previous Presidential election I've seen had systemic polling errors undercounting the GOP candidate's support.

If these people ever tell the truth, it must be by accident.

Blogger Damelon Brinn October 27, 2020 4:00 PM  

In 2016, these same polls had shown flashing red warning signs for Clinton

And yet they gave her 95-99% chances of winning. Strange, if there were such warning signs. There's some historical revisionism and major cherry-picking on the 2020 versus 2016 thing. I don't have them in front of me, but I've seen screenshots of Clinton having 8-9% leads at about this time, just like Biden.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan October 27, 2020 4:34 PM  

Trump tweeted about 1PM EDT with the news of 2-3 point leads in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, of course its political speech but I don't remember him doing that in 2016, I could be wrong being a Boomer and all that aging crap going on in life. If good polling is good for us there is also another guy saying +4 Florida. Then the NYTs polling that had Philly PA going 24% Trump which is good news since the witch took Philly with 83% in 2016.

Blogger Crew October 27, 2020 4:43 PM  

Claims that a large voter fraud ring in Texas has been busted!

https://twitter.com/DoniTheDon_/status/1320873895076024321?s=20

Blogger Damelon Brinn October 27, 2020 4:49 PM  

Nate Bronze says Biden is a half-point behind Clinton in California at this point. So we're supposed to believe Trump is doing better in California, but worse in the battleground states where people have been dealing with insane Democrat governor lockdowns and riots?

Blogger Ominous Cowherd October 27, 2020 5:35 PM  

Crew wrote:Claims that a large voter fraud ring in Texas has been busted!
States don't turn blue so much as the voter counters turn blue.

Blogger ws1835 October 27, 2020 5:47 PM  

Are there not 11 states who have signed a compact to give their electoral delegates to the winner of the popular vote? How long will that compact last when Trump wins the popular vote?

It would make my election experience to watch California hand its delegates to Trump.....

Blogger ws1835 October 27, 2020 5:53 PM  

Are there not 11 states who have signed a compact to give their electoral delegates to the winner of the popular vote? How long will that compact last when Trump wins the popular vote?

It would make my election experience to watch California hand its delegates to Trump.....

Blogger Ominous Cowherd October 27, 2020 6:05 PM  

ws1835 wrote:Are there not 11 states who have signed a compact to give their electoral delegates to the winner of the popular vote?
I had forgotten that! We were expecting melt-downs and screams at the sky, but this is going to add so much more anguish to their misery!

That will be the end of the compact, of course. None of the blue states will try to keep the compact, but lefty judges will find it unconstitutional if any do.

Whee!

Blogger Damelon Brinn October 27, 2020 6:12 PM  

How long will that compact last when Trump wins the popular vote?

I suspect that compact would be declared unconstitutional about five seconds after Trump is declared the winner. It would still be fun to watch them squirm through it, though. That gives Trump supporters in uncontested states another reason to get to the polls. It really wasn't smart at all, but they had to do something with their butthurt.

Blogger MrNiceguy October 27, 2020 6:39 PM  

I seem to recall that the "National Popular Vote Compact" has it written in that it only takes effect once enough states sign on to make 270 electoral votes.

Blogger Crew October 27, 2020 6:50 PM  

In 1969, Rep. Emanuel Celler introduced House Joint Resolution 681 to abolish the Electoral College and instead require a president-vice president pair of candidates to win at least 40% of the popular vote. The bill passed the House with bipartisan support but failed on the Senate floor, according to congressional records.

Now, where have I seen that name before?

Blogger Canada78Bear October 27, 2020 7:17 PM  

Going to be great entertainment till end of year going through clips of breakdowns and watching election night.

Blogger Damelon Brinn October 27, 2020 7:34 PM  

Time Magazine reported Clinton up 14 points nationally on Oct. 27, 2016. The idea that Biden is polling ahead of Clinton is a flat-out lie.

Blogger Colonel Blimp October 27, 2020 9:04 PM  

Check out 538 and Silvers new piece. He says stone faced he had hillary at 2 percent higher than trump. What a lying piece of sh6t. Then he calls out Trafalgar as lunatics when they have a higher sample size and wwre actually right last time.

Blogger My Comment October 27, 2020 9:05 PM  

Trump winning won't shatter their belief in polls. Nate Silver is already letting them know that is the polls are wrong it was because the election was stolen. Russia hoax part 2. Boogaloo boys will also be to blame for intimidating voters

Blogger Nick October 27, 2020 9:28 PM  

Trump may win the Electoral College again. But no way he wins the popular vote. I'll bet the farm on that.

Blogger Jack Amok October 27, 2020 10:27 PM  

So we're supposed to believe Trump is doing better in California, but worse in the battleground states where people have been dealing with insane Democrat governor lockdowns and riots?

Not to defend Silver or any of the other fake pollsters, but I would like to point out CA has an idiot Donk governor who just declared that you can't have Thanksgiving dinner unless it's outside (in late November!), no more than six adults, and you have to keep a log of everyone who attends. Even Hollywood liberals are pissed off at him.

So if it comes down to voting against the lockdown theater despots, CA probably won't be lagging behind NY, PA and MI.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd October 27, 2020 11:06 PM  

@19, I expect Trump to get 60% to 80% of the popular vote, depending on how much lefty cheating he can prevent.

Blogger Colonel Blimp October 27, 2020 11:54 PM  

Nick is right. Trump will win but if he gets even 50.1 percent itll be an electoral landslide. Literally a quarter of Bidens entire vote pool comes from new york, chicago and cali.

Blogger ontoiran October 28, 2020 5:04 PM  

I have yet to talk to a single person who voted for trump in '16, who has decided they're not going to vote for him this time

Blogger thebigfist October 29, 2020 12:03 AM  

Don't think Biden will beat Trump by that much in New York this election. Upstate NY & Long Island are going for Trump much heavier than in 2016.New York City is shell of it's former self and large and small businesses are furious with their Democrat Mayor. Trump will be surprisingly strong in NY,NJ and California, voter fraud, election fraud, ballot harvesting and ballot destruction, not withstanding.

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