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Thursday, November 12, 2020

Russia won the Azeri-Armenian war

At least, according to the Saker's analysis of the recent armistice between Azerbaijan and Armenia following the latest war for Nagorno-Karabakh.

  • The war which has just ended was a real bloodbath and it has seen more casualties (counting both sides) than what the Soviet Union lost in 10 years of warfare in Afghanistan
  • This war is now over, Russian peacekeepers have already been deployed along the line of contact. So far, neither side has dared to resume hostilities (more about that below).
  • There have been two days of celebrations in Baku where President Aliev has declared that the war was a triumph for Azeri forces and that Pashinian got nothing. He is right.
  • The Azeris are now declaring that they want compensation from Armenia.
  • There are now Turkish forces in Azerbaijan and Russian and Turkish forces have created a joint committee to coordinate actions.
Armenia: there is no doubt that Armenia is the biggest loser in this war. Pashinian and his gang of russophobic Sorosites has brought a real calamity upon his people. Since he came to power his anti-Russian actions included almost totally eliminating any Armenian participation on the CSTO, he completely ceased any collaboration with Russia (including in the intelligence and security domains), he purged the Armenian military and security forces from all the supposed “pro-Russian” elements, he banned Russian language schools. In contrast, Armenia has an absolutely huge US embassy with about 2000 personnel (as much as the entire Russian peacekeeping force!) and when the Azeris attacked, Pashinin refused to ask Russia for help for a full month. He did ask Trump, Merkel and Macron for help instead. Needless to say, they did exactly nothing once the crisis erupted.

Turkey: the next big loser in this war is Turkey whose objectives of bringing all Turkic nations under one neo-Ottoman empire have, predictably, crashed. 

Russia: Russia is the only true winner of this war. I know, there is a powerful Armenian lobby in the USA, in Europe and in Russia, and they are trying to present their defeat as a defeat for Russia. Frankly, I understand their bitterness and I feel sorry for them, but they are absolutely wrong. Here is why: First, Russia has now established herself as the sole power in the Caucasus which can bring about peace. 2000 US personnel in Erevan did absolutely nothing for years to really help Armenia, all they did is force suicidal russophobic policies on Armenia, that’s about it.... Another sweet spot for Russia is that she can now (truthfully) declare that color revolutions inevitably result in territorial losses (the Ukraine, Georgie and now Armenia) and political chaos (everywhere).

I can't possibly say whether he is correct or not, but one thing is clear: the outcome of this latest conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh was considerably less successful for Armenia than the last one. It's also rather sobering to be informed that the war was even more bloody than the much longer Soviet invasion and occupation of Afghanistan.

45 comments:

  1. Which GW is pure race war? Zero, or first?
    Anyway, that's why the butcher's bill was high: neither side took prisoners. The Armenians and Azeris each believed that they were better off if the other side was short one more man.

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  2. Soros again. The evil that is kept alive by aborted baby blood.

    I always wondered why noone killed the bastard. I now think that is because he is so evil he became a concept.

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  3. Once Pashinian is removed from office and a new Armenian government formed, expect the U.S. Embassy to be shutdown and its 2,000 personnel expelled from the country. Ditto for the Soros NGO personnel as well.

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  4. This seems weird somehow and I don't know where the misinformation lies, from what I've understood the israeli's provided drones and military equipment to the azerian side and that was the cause of armenia losing.

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  5. At least no Americans died. Of course, the Deep State probably tried to get that to happen.

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  6. When you see the collected video of Azeri drone strikes on Armenian troops in the open or even in trenchlines it is not surprising that there was a staggering amount of bloodshed. I saw the video at Peter Grant's place, IIRC and it was sobering.
    Curtis

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  7. "the outcome of this latest conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh was considerably less successful for Armenia than the last one"
    because Israel arms Azeris, loves Turkey, and hates Armenia

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  8. Textbook example of how diversity + proximity = war.

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  9. This whole conflict always seemed to me to be a trap to get the US to pick a side, a no-win situation for Trump. He was wise to stay out of it. Still, Turkey needs to be out of NATO. Maybe we need to be out of NATO too.

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    1. "Maybe we need to be out of NATO too."

      NATO needed to be disbanded 1992. Mission complete.

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  10. Armenia is a natural ally to Russia - it makes zero sense to cozy up to glob-progs 2,000 miles away in Brussels. But an Armenian ally blocks the possibility of strategic Turko-Russian cooperation, which is the key to peace in Syria, another Russian ally with Turkish problems. Russia is ALSO delicately balancing its interests in Libya in deference to the bungling, aggressive Turks.

    The Turks have their fingers in too many pies right now. They're trouble-making pests, and causing instability out of proportion to their size. Erdogan needs to go.

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    1. Turkey is only visible winner of the XX century. Compare population USA or China and Turkey 1900 - 2000

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  11. You had two military forces of broadly comparable capability going at it vs an asymmetrical war like Afghanistan. Modern hardware kills people in job lots.

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  12. So maybe this article is on to something?
    https://unherd.com/2020/10/the-world-needs-jordan-peterson-more-than-ever/

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  13. @Ken
    I forget whether I read it from Dunnigan or Dupuy many years back, but the long term general historical trend, even into the 20th century, was that as weapons lethality increased, overall casualty rates went down. Hypothesis was that battles gradually became more decisive so less of a meat grinder. Competent leaders at least would cut their losses.

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  14. kurt9 wrote:expect the U.S. Embassy to be shutdown and its 2,000 personnel expelled from the country.
    Even if the US weren't behind this (we were, if only by putting Pashanian into power), the US is the only available scapegoat. Especially since Russia came in to end the slaughter and broker a peace. Parties that need to work together to recover their nation will be able to blame the US, point out the complete lack of aid from the US, and the comparatively benign and pro-Armenian impact of Russia in a horrific situation.
    State screwed the pooch on this one.

    The World War II Fanatic wrote:because Israel arms Azeris, loves Turkey, and hates Armenia
    More accurately, Israel sees profit for themselves in arming Azeris and co-operating with Turks, and no need to help Armenia, as the US and Soros have that end of the war.
    OTOH Israel HATES Russians. Plug that into your calculator and see what comes out.

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  15. Ken Prescott wrote: Modern hardware kills people in job lots."

    Whole lotta people said that about machine guns in WWI!

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  16. Newscaper312 wrote:So maybe this article is on to something?
    Murray is a long-time Neocon and former president of the Henry Jackson Society, a soft-globalist outfit. (((Murray))) isn't a ticket-taker, he's a ticket-giver.

    No, the article is just a pseudo-Right globalist anti-Christian fan-boy trying to rehabilitate Peterson.

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  17. Turkey is like a drunk in a bar, picking fights on every front.

    Eventually they will get their wish. And article 5 of the NATO charter has already been ignored the last dozen or whatever times that Turkish aircraft have been shot down - no one cares for tyrants like Erdogan or their insane schemes.

    Russia is going to slap them down hard. Maybe economically, check-mating their next deployments, or arming any of their giant and expanding list of enemies.

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  18. "Putin defeats Soros"

    Is that a fair assessment?


    If so, that is excellent news.

    "Thousands of u.s. embassy staff" no longer has a positive moral connotation; rather it suggests deep demonic state using our wealth to destroy Christendom.


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  19. Are there any recommended websites providing a post war assessment.

    The war ended but another will happen in the future. For the Armenians the loss of Nargono Karabash is similar to the French loss of Alsace Lorraine.

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  20. @Newscaper312
    Fair enough.
    Don't assume everyone here is smart enough to get the joke. Evidently I wasn't this time.
    And (((Murray))) is one of those lying snakes that really chaps my ass.

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  21. If this could be used as an excuse to kick Turkey out of NATO I would welcome it. Unfortunately Armenia was overpowered with the Azeris receiving aid from both Turkey and Israel.

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  22. What will happen now? Will Nagorno-Karabah go to Azerbaijan now? Or will it be a Russian protectorate?

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  23. Even if the US weren't behind this (we were, if only by putting Pashanian into power), the US is the only available scapegoat. Especially since Russia came in to end the slaughter and broker a peace. Parties that need to work together to recover their nation will be able to blame the US, point out the complete lack of aid from the US, and the comparatively benign and pro-Armenian impact of Russia in a horrific situation.
    State screwed the pooch on this one.


    Trump staying out should help the blame fall on the CIA/Deep State and Soros himself. Normally I'd side with Armenia but considering Armenia's Sorosian government and the fact that Azerbaijan is probably the most pro-U.S. country in that area, not coming out in support of Armenia was the right thing to do.

    Regardless, we'd better hope that Trump fends off Biden.

    The war ended but another will happen in the future. For the Armenians the loss of Nargono Karabash is similar to the French loss of Alsace Lorraine.

    They didn't actually lose much of Nagorno-Karabakh itself, but mostly the extra Azerbaijani territory around Nagorno-Karabakh which they didn't really have a legitimate claim to.

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  24. It is strange to me why any "minor" nation in this world would try to align with the USA. I mean I suppose if you have a WW2/Christian mindset it makes sense, but the USA, since the 1970's has really been the most anti-Christian nation in this world if you only consider the actions of our political and elite class.

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  25. Do Jews have any ambitions other than getting Christians slaughtered?

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  26. Alexei wrote:"Maybe we need to be out of NATO too."

    NATO needed to be disbanded 1992. Mission complete.


    Or at least re-purposed as an R&D alliance.

    At this point the emperor has no clothes though.. Do you think the USA is going to come to the defense of Turkey if Russia wipes out their defense systems?

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  27. @22 snidely
    What else is amusing, that Peterson article was linked at Instapundit, by Driscoll of course.
    Several people plugged Jordanetics. The intensity of the JPs fans is still surprising. Most interesting was a guy who gave Vox apparently genuine props for smarts, but still took a swipe at his fans speaking out.

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  28. If the US fully sat out of the war, then we came in 2nd or 3rd place, depending on where you rate Azerbaijan.

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  29. Where are you getting that more died in this conflict than the Soviet war in Afghanistan?

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  30. crescent wrench wrote:Do you think the USA is going to come to the defense of Turkey if Russia wipes out their defense systems?
    Aren't Turkey's systems NATO standard? If Russia wipes them out, that's probably a sign that the rest of NATO should step back and think a little. In fact, if ANYONE wipes out the Turks, the rest of NATO should send thanks.

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  31. I'm Armenian (though born and raised in the States) so I've been paying a lot of attention to this war.

    The Israeli drones are what won the Azeris/Turks this war. The first war in the early 90s was almost exclusively a ground war, and the Armenians won massively despite being ridiculously outmanned and outequipped.

    "Turkey: the next big loser in this war is Turkey whose objectives of bringing all Turkic nations under one neo-Ottoman empire have, predictably, crashed."

    Not completely. Read the actual agreement; the Azeris are now entitled to a road stretching across southern Armenia connecting the Azeri mainland to their Nachichevan exclave (on the other side of Armenia), and Nackichevan is connected physically to Turkey. This means Turkey will now basically have direct access to the Caspian Sea. The highway is supposed to be overseen by the Russian FSB though so I doubt they will be able to move military assets or do things of that nature. But who knows where things will go? I honestly don't expect this agreement to stick for very long. The Armenians lost too much territory to feel like this will be a lasting peace.

    Pashinyan seems to be getting roasted badly in Armenia right now (I believe he fled the country, or at least hasn't come back from wherever he signed that awful agreement, as protesters stormed the parliament building the night it was signed), but there aren't really any solid alternatives to him other than the old oligarchs - who are still not popular to my knowledge.

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    1. Did the Armenians try burning tires / oil to counter the drones? Seems like the best low tech option if you don't want to use EMP's.

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  32. >> Eventually they will get their wish. And article 5 of the NATO charter has already been ignored the last dozen or whatever times that Turkish aircraft have been shot down - no one cares for tyrants like Erdogan or their insane schemes.

    That's because Article 5 doesn't kick in unless a country is ATTACKED. Nobody's been attacking Turkey ... they've been attacking their neighbors.

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  33. >> Do Jews have any ambitions other than getting Christians slaughtered?

    Ask the families of the 50,000,000 Chinese slaughtered at the behest of Mao and his (((five closest advisors))).

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  34. >> Aren't Turkey's systems NATO standard? If Russia wipes them out, that's probably a sign that the rest of NATO should step back and think a little.

    NATO standards means "their ammo will properly chamber, operate, and not damage other weapons designed to the same standard." I.e. a British 5.56mmx45mm round for the SA-80 will properly feed into and fire from an American M-16, and vice-versa with American ammo used in other NATO nations' weapons. Specifically, the 5.56mmx45mm standards are SS109 (ball ammo, green tip), SS110 (tracer, orange tip), and SS111 (not sure what type of round this is? Dummy for rifle grenades? Blacktip (armor piercing)?

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  35. Not just Russia. SOAD cut a new song, too.

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  36. @ Mike: The drones may have been responsible for the most Armenian casualties, but it was the hashtagging and tweets on social media by Russian trolls that had the Armenians literally shaking.

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  37. Give Russia Constantinople. Make it Hagia Sophia again.

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  38. Akulkis wrote:NATO standards means "their ammo will properly chamber, operate, and not damage other weapons designed to the same standard."
    Yes, that's a little bit of what it means. It also means that a bunch of the Turkish systems were bought from other NATO countries. If the Russians wipe them out when the Turks use them, that could be a bad sign for when we use them.

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  39. After readind saker's opinions on venezuela, the guy lost for me all credibility in everything he writes
    We have a lot of fuckibg refugees here from venezuela, so I know what is happening there.

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  40. With respect, I believe this analysis is partially incorrect.

    The Turks needed to see the effectiveness of their training techniques using their newly developed military equipment.

    First in Libya, their proxies using, their drones and satellites beat Russian proxies and equipment. Forcing Russia's proxies to sue for peace after giving up valuable territories.

    In Armenia, Turkish proxies brought almost total destruction and mass casualties to Armenia's military. Forcing Armenia to sue for peace after losing illegally gained territories.

    For Erdogan, this was a huge milestone on his desire to create a self sufficient Turkish defense organization.

    He expanded his influence while weakening his enemies.

    I have included a link of Russian Anti-Air units in Libya getting destroyed in Libya. How humiliating for these units to see their end by air.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GywTkuNoviE

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  41. To those saying these drones are NATO standard. Turks now produce a variety of their own drones. Search Youtube for an detailed explanation of their capabilities.

    Russian proxies got their ass handed to them using Russian (if outdated) gear.

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