Wherefore art thou, Ralph?

I love Ralph Wiley. He is a writer's writer. I don't always agree with him, but his fearless approach to his art is a major influence on my own approach to commentary. But I have to address his analysis of the Green Bay - Philadelpha matchup, as I suspect his desire to champion Donovan McNabb may have led him a little astray here. Of course, the beautiful thing about sports is that, unlike politics, we'll know who is right this weekend.

RW: Do you really think Ahman Green, the most beautiful running back in ball right now, is going to rush for 150 yards? Are you insane? With the skill of Philly's corners, Troy Vincent and Bobby Taylor? They can easily single-cover Green Bay's wide receivers and bring Brian Dawkins down into the box like an extra linebacker -- only Dawkins hits harder than most LBs. It's simply a matter of bringing one more than the Pack O-line can block, much as the McTites did to Baltimore's Jamal Lewis.

I don't know if he'll rush for 150. But I don't see a defense that couldn't stop Kevan Barlow shutting him down either. And Donald Driver, Javon Walker and Bubba Franks are not exactly the Baltimore Ravens receiving corps. Philadelphia gives up 130 rushing yards per game, and ranks 8 spots and 20 yard per game worse than Seattle. Green will get his yards, and two TDs as well.

RW: As for waiting for McNabb to nut up, well, you may as well pass the Chunky Soup, be-atch. I seriously doubt that Andy Reid will make the same mistake he made last year with that ultra-conservative game plan, put in maybe because McNabb was coming off that broken leg and limping around. I expect the Eagles to play wide-open; and the Green Bay secondary, as Matt Hasselbeck proved until the last play, is available. McNabb knows what Hasselbeck didn't (though it was nice to see what the Sea-Dogs had, finally -- they've got a squad). McNabb knows full well that corner Al Harris likes to sit on routes. He'll get double-moved in this one.

Matt Hasselbeck: 61 percent completions, 26 TD, 15 INT
Donovan McNabb: 57.5 percent completions, 16 TD, 11 INT

McNabb probably does know it. The problem isn't his experience or a tendency to choke, the problem is his lack of accuracy. After the double-pump, he'll overthrow Thrash, then, on the next play, sail one high over the middle right into Darren Sharper's chest.

NFL Playoffs

Last week: 3-1. I thought the Big Tuna would lead the Cowboys over Carolina.

New England over Tennesee
I don't see the Titans knocking off a quietly dominant Patriots team even with a healthy Eddie George and Steve McNair. The Patriots don't seem as talented as a lot of the other teams still standing, but they're so machine-like and competent it is frightening.

Green Bay over Philadelphia
I went back and forth on this one. It's dangerous to go against the Sports Guy, and contrary to popular opinion, I don't hate Donovan McNabb. However, he's less accurate than Matt Hasselbeck, so he's not going to pick apart the Green Bay secondary any better than Hasselbeck did, and the Eagles are also weaker against the run than the Seahawks, so they're not going to stop Ahman Green either.

St. Louis over Carolina
Carolina is the pet upset pick of the experts, but I disagree. Mike Martz is a smart guy, and this year he's gotten a lot better at not outsmarting himself. When he has to pound, he pounds now, which was never the case in the past. I've liked Bulger since seeing him play in his first game against Oakland; I think his higher INT percentage stems from not having Faulk most of the season. If Martz can't run Marshall against the Carolina line, he'll have Bulger throw to him out of the backfield, where Faulk is arguably more dangerous.

Kansas City over Indianapolis
Peyton Manning was my fantasy QB this year. When he's on, which is most of the time, he's great. But he's also prone to the occasional inexplicable debacle, and after last week's destruction of Denver, I suspect payback is due. I think Tony Dungy is a good man and a solid coach, but a mediocre game-day tactician. Vermeil will outcoach Dungy for the win - I've seen enough Denny Green teams get outcoached in the playoffs to know how this usually plays out. And who was Denny's defensive coordinator for more than a few of those? Right. As Bill Parcells showed, a great coach doesn't need a complete team to win, he just needs something. Parcells didn't have anything to work with this year; with Holmes, Green, Hall and Gonzalez, Dick Vermeil does.

In fact, the Sports Guy seems to have neglected his own Rule #6: check the coaching matchups. In explaining that rule, he even said: "Tony Dungy: You never hear an announcer say, "This game's a chess match!" when Dungy's involved."

Precisely.

UPDATE: Okay, I was wrong about the Rams, although that one could have just as easily gone the other way, the experts notwithstanding. I figured the Rams were in trouble when they couldn't punch it in with three separate chances in the red zone. Also, Mike Martz clearly doesn't have much trust in Bulger, letting the clock run down at the end of the game instead of throwing it into the end zone - rightly so, judging by that last interception on the Carolina 30. And what was up with Carolina failing to call timeout on the kick that should have won the game the first time. Tori Holt's drop was big too. Strange game, but great to watch. I hope Stephen Davis is good to go for next week. Also, it was nice to see the Panthers win despite getting double-teamed by the Rams and the referees.

Halfway through the 1st quarter of the other game. Titans don't look good. Brady does. I'll be shocked if I get this one wrong too.

Gold and moving averages

Adam Hamilton's analyses have been... less than perfectly successful in the last year, but I can't really dog him since mine haven't been any better. We've both been wrong-wrong-wrong on the stock markets, and right-right-right on metals. Anyhow, he's got a very nice analysis of how the price action of the dollar-gold relationship has been revolving around the 200-day moving averages over the last few years.

To sum it up, the dollar's been firming at .90 of its 200 DMA, while gold's been peaking at around 1.13. However, if you look at the Relative Dollar and Relative Gold chart you can see that in Elliott Wave terminology, gold appears to be approaching a short-term third of a third top if you count from the low point of spring 2003. If you add into the mix the fact that Rick Ackerman is still looking for $450 on this run, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a slight correction, one last pop up past the 1.174 previous high, and then the next three-month correction before we start all over again.

I'll probably dabble a bit with some tactical moves, although with metals I much prefer Richard Russell's strategy of sit and ride the bull. Strategy has worked much better than tactics for me anyway.

Big media blogfamy

The Evangelical Outpost writes: Must Read List: Vox Popoli -- Normally the last thing I want to promote is a “big media” writer who enters the world of blogging. But for a writer as talented and as interesting as Vox Day I’ll make an exception. He’s a syndicated writer and contributor to WorldNetDaily. (I found out today that we have something in common. His column is carried in The Dallas Morning News, which has the ninth largest circulation in the country. I myself used to write a column for a Texas newspaper that had a circulation of nine.)

I also recommend checking out his latest column which deconstructs the false claim that Marine general Anthony Zinni made an anti-Semitic remark. He also has what is still my favorite line of the week. In response to Howard Dean’s claim that his decision to support gay civil unions was informed by his “religious faith,” Vox writes, “Well, in fairness, Howard only said he'd be talking about God. He didn't say he'd be listening to Him.”

Actually, Joe and I have more in common than that. We are both massive fans of the man Tom Clancy once described as the Warrior Prince of the Marine Corps, former USMC Commandant Charles Krulak. I should probably mention that my column hasn't started running in the DMN yet, but it will in a week or two. I also think "big media" is probably overstating it by an order of magnitude at this point, but we'll get there soon enough.

Now that I think about it, this would be a good time to start pestering your local newspaper if you'd like to see my column start appearing in it. Unless they've already filled their quota of sardonic Christian libertarian techno-adepts with pop star potential.

Celebrity-chasing columnists

I previously predicted a lot of Kobe Bryant columns in Rabbi "I talked to Michael Jackson once" Boteach's future, so I'm not the least bit surprised that he's leaping on Britney Spears with alacrity. Our societal enchantment with celebrity is bad enough when it passes for news, but I find it even more distasteful when it invades the commentary page. As if there's not a thousand more important things about which to opine. I always thought WND was gunning for the New York Times, not the New York Post's Page Six.

Look, I partied with Hans Lundgren, Guns-n-Roses and David Lee Roth back when I was living in Tokyo. So what? That's no reason to write columns about them every other week, much less brain-dead celebs I haven't even met.

The rabbi isn't the only one guilty of celebrity-chasing. NRO's Murdock couldn't resist the temptation either. Neither could Derb, but he: A) was hilarious, B) mercilessly ripped Miss Spears' talent, celebrity, intelligence and looks, and C) in one smooth flow, dropped a vicious quote from Samuel Johnson, called her the mother of the Antichrist and predicted the Apocalypse. Plus, he's Derb and he's down with the One True Dragon, so he can do whatever he wants, in my book.

Why the Sports Guy rules

Shakiest Coach of the Weekend: Brian Billick. Along with offensive coordinator Matt Cavanaugh, it took them three-and-a-half quarters to realize they should be throwing deep downfield to Todd Heap. Really? It took them that long to figure out that their All-Pro tight end might be able to run by the safeties when they were cheating up to stop Jamal Lewis ... which was only every play? Don't these people play video games? It's the oldest trick in the book! Even early Intellivision had that play (9-4-2-8?).

I can beat the vast majority of gamers at Maddens, from 1992 to 1996 on Genesis, then 1999 to 2004 on PSX and PS/2. But I scoff at anyone who would even dream of taking me on in the brutal endurance test that is Intellivision football - 15-minute quarters baby, the real 15 minutes, none of this latter-day speed-stuff-up nonsense. I played that game by myself for hours, months on end. The only game at which I'm better is US Ski Team Skiiing. Still, the Sports Guy just might give me a game.

Always good to see a fellow fan of the Gold Disc and the Thumb of Power. You know that modern game controllers descend from the Gold Disc, right? Atari 2600 joysticks - pah!

(For those of you experiencing momentary paradigm shift, please be informed that for eight years, I designed, produced and reviewed video and computer games.)

Ski Killington

I'm sure you'll all be surprised that I'm in favor of Killington seceding from Vermont, to better live free or die. Come on, Killington, why not go all the way? There's nothing to fear, as long as you don't have slaves. I'm sure the federal government will bid you adieu with wave and a friendly smile, what with all these soon-to-be-legal immigrants receiving the President's amnesty standing ready to replace you.

Comments

We'll try it out. If it becomes annoying, obscene or too much work to police, I'll simply remove them.

UPDATE: Don't worry overmuch about people trying to pollute the forum. The comments don't show up unless you go out of your way to read them, and I can nuke individual ones anyhow. Nor will this blog become a self-referring circle that revolves around comments posted here. As has been remarked upon before, I have a talent for ignoring that which I wish to ignore.

UPDATE II: That should fix the width problem. Thanks CJ. Also, please email me directly if you are wishing for me to respond to something. I don't promise that I will, but I'm basically just scanning the comments to make sure that no one is abusing the forum. I'm not policing it for agreement with my positions, only for basic civility and, preferably, a modicum of sense.

Britney, whore of Babylon

John Derbyshire cracks me up: It is a given that one generation doesn't like another generation's pleasures. As Dr. Johnson put it in his straightforward way: "Why, Sir, our tastes greatly alter. The lad does not care for the child's rattle, and the old man does not care for the young man's whore." Giving all possible benefit of the doubt to Britney Spears, though, I see nothing redeeming in her act. You can't even sing the songs yourself, or play them on air guitar. For this Buddy Holly died?

An awful suspicion forms in my mind. The empty lewdness of the stage act; the bottomless nothingness in Britney's eyes and words; all that emptiness and nothingness and purposelessness; the trashing of our culture's most hallowed ceremony... for what? Can it be...? Yes! I only hope I can get the word out before they track me down.

Listen: Britney Spears is an instrument of Satan. The poor girl has sold her soul, or had it stolen from her. That travesty of a marriage was not for nothing — it was a union in evil! Its issue will be the Antichrist, and the world will be his dominion. These are the Last Times. You have been warned.

Exit stage left, pursued by a dragon....

Why free downloads are good... for most

I sent the following to the infamous tormentor of puppies after reading a discussion of the RIAA and free downloads on the Blog That Must Not Be Mentioned:

In addition to being a newly syndicated columnist, I happen to be a published novelist. I can assure you, free downloads are a benefit to about 98 percent of all creators because the primary challenge to selling one's books, CDs, etc is simply letting your potential market know that you exist. It's hard to sell something to someone who doesn't know that you or your product are out there.

This is why Hillary Clinton can sell tons of books despite the fact that she can't - and didn't - write one. She has enough fame to cut through the clutter. Downloads will hurt the sales of a Stephen King or a John Grisham, but will only help the average writer since it increases the general awareness of his work.

This is why Baen Books and others have seen an uptick in sales since making their wares freely available for download. The percentage of people who've heard of the product and become buyers may decrease, but for almost everyone, the increase in the number of people who've heard about it more than makes up for any loss.

A belated Christmas present arrives

I just received an Ann Coulter doll in the mail. We're very happy together. You realize, of course, it's only a matter of time before there's an Ann Coulter blow-up doll.

We may never see Eric Alterman in public again.

The blog in his eye

AG writes: Still no luck on the random slides in Impress. I am thinking that perhaps the functionality I need to use has not been written into Impress yet. This functionality would be the ability to select a slide, cut the slide, select another slide or spot between slides, and paste the cut slide there. All I have found so far is the function of selecting a slide and "remove"ing it, but no way to paste it anywhere.

AG is the latest addition to the Reader Blogroll. He's also working on a macro to provide the ability to do slide show randomization in OpenOffice Impress. He's got it partially working, but is not there yet. If anyone knows anything about this, let me know or visit The Blog in My Own Eye and fill him in directly.

If it isn't in print it must not be true

There are times when I have serious sympathy for my fellow elitists who don't believe that the Great Unwashed should be permitted to decide anything but which channel to watch.

John Lott writes: With the avalanche of horrific news stories about guns over the years, it's no wonder people find it hard to believe that, according to surveys there are about two million defensive gun uses each year; guns are used defensively four times more frequently than they are to commit crimes.

The rebuttal to this claim always is: If these events were really happening, wouldn't we hear about them on the news?

And when would that be, when there's so much celebrity porn that requires indulging? I'm surprised the television media even bothered to report on the Iraqi war, considering that a celebrity somewhere did something during that time. Oh, I'm an elitist all right, I'm just an Aristotelian libertarian Christian instead of a secular Platonist collectivist. Anyhow, it's a good article. Lott seems to know his stuff, although I wish he wasn't so reticent about his research records. He's no fantasist like Bellesiles, but he's not as transparent and solid as he should be either.

What feminism hath wrought

Marvin Olasky writes: ...in India, where cars stop for sacred cows but abortion or infanticide of little girls is rampant, the problem is very visible on streets where young men without women prowl. Skewed birth statistics tell the story. For example, look at the district-by-district birth figures for areas surrounding the ancient pilgrimage region of Madurai in south India. Usilampatti in December 2002 had 910 male births and only 690 female ones. Chellampatti had 848 male births and 623 female ones.

The situation is much the same in China, and will get much worse as access to pre-birth sex-identification technology improves. In Italy, the birth rate has already dropped to 1.2 per woman, far short of the 2.1 needed to keep the population stable. As in India, a son is usually preferred. The irony is that the historically dubious notion of female equality is looking increasingly likely to kill off entire societies in less time than some of the most savage wars in history, mostly by significantly reducing the number of women. Freud asked, famously, what women want. Judged by the results, the feminist answer appears to be divorce, lesbian chic and dead little girls.

Environmentalists and those worried about population explosion may cheer declining birth rates, but I expect that in 25 years or so, when the demographic chickens seriously begin to come home to roost, they'll feel rather differently. And as Denmark, Holland and France are learning, importing individuals from manifestly different cultures to make up the gap creates significant new problems of its own.

On a tangential note, here's an interesting essay on Italian demographics and the immigration issue. It's even got two quotes from Umberto Eco's Cinque Scritti Morali. Che bello!

Where we're heading

A British television talk-show host for BBC1 is under fire for a newspaper column he wrote criticizing Arabs. Robert Kilroy-Silk faces a possible police investigation after referring to Arabs as "suicide bombers, limb amputators, women repressors," reports Sky News. The comments, which included a charge that Arabs "murdered" 3,000 civilians on September 11, were published in a weekend column in the Sunday Express.

Apparently the truth is no defense. Are the suicide bombers Arab? Yes. Is the amputation of limbs a normal punishment in Arab countries? Yes. Are women repressed in Arab countries? Yes, by Western standards. But apparently it's a crime to mention any of this in Britain.

Good thing we have a 1st Amendment to protect our right to free speech... well, we did until the Supreme Court decided that we didn't last month.

Mailbox: Everything is everyone's business

SC writes: I accept the idea that each individual should have the freedom to do anything that does not diminish the freedoms of another without the other's permission. I would make the argument that not wearing a seat belt or motorcycle helmet does diminish the freedoms of others. If you are driving without your seat belt and I cause an accident that would not have caused you injury with a seat belt, but did cause sever injury because your head struck the windshield, I would be liable for your medical bills. With the seat belt law in place, I could argue that the injuries were a result of your choice to break the seat belt law and therefore not my fault. What say you?

With all due respect, I say that shows a failure to think things through. If we're talking about hypotheticals - which we are - then in a libertarian society you would not be liable for anyone else's medical bills. This is why neo-socialist medical systems like we have now in the United States are so pernicious. One bit of government involvement always justifies the next.

Using this reasoning, you have a perfect right to insist that I have my body injected with chemicals I don't want in my body because if I get the flu, you have to pay for my treatment. And in any event, you are not responsible for another's bad choices regardless of whether a behavior-controlling law is in place or not. Everything ultimately boils down to one question. Either the State is supreme (Plato) or the individual is supreme (Aristotle, Jesus Christ). I'm down with the latter, and will brook no compromise.

Mailbox: Howard and God

ST writes: So now apparently Dean's logic supercedes that of God....

Well, in fairness, Howard only said he'd be talking about God. He didn't say he'd be listening to Him.

Mailbox: Protected against yourself

DW writes: I read your blog with interest. Much of it is well-reasoned (NFL allegiances aside, although I certainly can claim no better!). And want to or not, one leaves the blog thinking. Certainly I did not expect to bethinking about cannibalism this morning. Regarding Brandes consent, what about codes that are in place to preventone from inflicting serious harm on oneself?

I do not know the laws pertaining to this in Germany, but that's not the point of my question. Are codes like this an example of state interference in individual choice and morality? If not, could such a principle be applied to Brandes, and if so, would you prefer to see these laws eliminated?

Yes, they absolutely are. Seat belt laws and helmet laws are good examples of this. Such an example certainly applies, and I would absolutely prefer to see these laws eliminated. If the State has the power to tell you to wear a helmet on a bicycle, they also have the power to tell a woman to wear the chador.

Tax trial verdict - the end of justice

The jury has sent the judge another question.

Question: Since no proof has been offered by the government that the defendant's business is required to file under Section 7202, are we to assume that they are not required to file or are we to read all 7000 pages of businesses required to file?

Answer from Judge: I have made a legal determination that during the years in question, Arrow Plastics had a legal duty to collect Social Security, Medicare and FICA and forward those taxes to the U.S.A. and the defendant's business falls into the category of businesses required to file. They should not concern themselves as to the requirement for the defendant's business to file.

The defense objected that this amounted to a directed verdict. The judge overruled the objection.

After this, the verdict came back guilty on 29 of 31 counts. Which is understandable, given the fact that the judge simply made up the law and directed the verdict. "They should not concern themselves as to the requirement for the defendant's business to file." That was what the whole case was about; it was precisely what the jury was there to judge! This is why you must never use a lawyer in these circumstances. The jury has the power to judge the law; the judge does not, but no lawyer will dare to bring up jury nullification for fear of being disbarred. It's too bad the Simkanin jury did not know its own power.

Since there's now no law as written, it's clear that Aleister Crowley's rule is now in effect. "Do what thou wilt shall be the whole of the law." I don't expect this to turn out well, in the long run. The socialist crisis is approaching - what will they do when strong arm tactics such as these still don't cause freedom-loving people to submit? And what will the next honest and informed entrepeneur take from this lesson in judicial tyranny? Some will submit and pay the taxes they know they don't owe. Some will resist and go to jail with their head held high. And some will quietly leave the country, never to return.

A nation that persecutes its best and brightest doesn't tend to survive long.

Mailbox: No taste for freedom

JM writes: Your answer to the question freaked me out. What about the people in the society? Don't they have the right to be protected from such an act happening in their midst? If there were the possibility of a man murdering and eating another man next door to me, and it was a common practice (who knows where we will be in 30 years?), I would not be able to live in peace. I would never even consider bringing children into the world. Such acts cannot simply happen "behind doors", their very presence in a society effects every member of the society. The act is so reviling to basic human nature that everyone is effected.

For some reason the consent makes it far more bone-chilling than your run of the mill "jungle cannibalism". It is as if you get a glimpse of hell. And by your logic you could have this sort of stuff on pay-per-view. I would rather be persecuted under a tyrant than to live in such a society. Personal freedom in this life is only so valuable, it is not to be idolized, which is exactly what you border on doing.

I think this is absolutely a glimpse of Hell. This is what happens when people turn from God. And legal or no, the possibility already exists. But instead of expecting the government to stop it, I would say that the correct response is social ostracism and a refusal to do business or have dealings with such a person. Sans a government that violates the right to freedom of association, you would be very unlikely to have such a person living next door for long; he would not be able to do so in a town where no one would have anything to do with him. Ostracism is a very powerful force, unfortunately Americans have lost the ability to use it.

Otherwise, you have a society where the government has the power to prevent people from worshipping God next door. You can't have things both ways. I don't idolize personal freedom. God, who has far more power than any government, decided to give it to us as a gift. Who are you to attempt to take away what He has chosen to give? Private property and a philosophy of my rights ending where yours begin is the only reasonable foundation for secular law. I would say, however, that it is foolish to think that it would be better to live under a tyrant - there have been tyrants in the past thirty years who have practiced such abominations themselves. You would prefer to allow them the power to force you to do the same?

Neither governments nor people can be controlled for long. Not for good, not for evil. This is the great lesson of history.

JM responds: This is a very good argument. I gladly submit to it. I never considered the effect two seemingly disconnected freedoms can have on one another. My nightmare scenario was actually a form of tyranny because we would be forced to "get along" with persons who engage in such behavior in the name of respecting their liberty. It is not really a respect of liberty, [though], it is a respect of sin.

Indeed.