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Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Demographic decline

The pace of American decline and fall picks up:
An analysis of census data by the Pew Research Center, being released Friday, documents the changes in fertility rates that are driving government projections that U.S. minorities will become the majority by midcentury. The figures show that among all women ages 40-44, about 18 percent, or 1.9 million, were childless in 2008. That's up from 10 percent, or nearly 580,000 in 1976. Broken down by race, roughly 20 percent of white women are childless, compared with 17 percent of blacks and of Hispanics and 16 percent of Asians.
20 percent of white American women are childless, and 28 percent of the children who are born to them are illegitimate. Assuming an equal distribution of childbirths among women who have children for simplicity's sake, this suggests that white American women have around a 42% probability of being either childless or a single mother. And since both the childless and illegitimacy rates are rising rapidly, it's probably more like a one-in-two chance for the average young woman today.

Needless to say, that is not the hallmark of a self-sustaining society. Unfortunately, there have been no winners in the long-running American war against men, and it is children who have been the biggest losers. And from the economic perspective, these demographic patterns strengthen the probability of debt-default, as children who were never born, fatherless criminals, and immigrants of non-Western heritage are not likely to be willing to pay for the massive debts incurred by aging white people.

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