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Thursday, August 22, 2013

A too-timely change in the calculus

It's pretty well understood that the Assad regime has the Syrian civil war well in hand.  So, are we supposed to believe that the regime is not only dumb enough to resort to chemical weapons it didn't use when it was in far more dire straits, but just happened to pick the one weapon that could be expected to trigger US involvement?  That makes no sense.
"A year ago President Obama promised that the use of chemical weapons against Syrian rebels would bring a game-changing shift in U.S. posture toward Assad's often brutal regime.

"'We have been very clear to the Assad regime, but also to other players on the ground,' Obama said on August 20, 2012, 'that a red line for us is [if] we start seeing a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around or being utilized. That would change my calculus.'"
I think it is considerably more likely that the Syrian rebels staged the chemical attack in order to try to force the West's hand.  Foreign Affairs even stated: "months of fighting have underlined the harsh reality that the opposition is outmatched". To be honest, if I thought the Obama administration wanted yet another war on its hands - and I most certainly do not - I would find Obama to be a far more credible suspect than Assad.

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38 Comments:

Anonymous inhumanist August 22, 2013 6:36 PM  

Or some intrepid American dropped the stuff on the rebels.

Anonymous nordicthunder August 22, 2013 6:41 PM  

somewhat related, it seems like we are just itching to get even more involved in the ME mess

http://www.thesmokinggun.com/documents/iranian-uranium-arrest-378129

Blogger Revelation Means Hope August 22, 2013 6:42 PM  

There are already reports of Amerikan troops moving into Syria, beyond the usual CIA protagonists, of course.

I don't see how America wins by intervening in this one, beyond even a partial wag the dog type effect.

I don't see how Israel really benefits, either.

So, who benefits? The banksters? Figures.

Anonymous onejohn512 August 22, 2013 6:42 PM  

How could proof be established? No wonder they've been referred to as perfidious for centuries.

Anonymous FUBAR Nation Ben August 22, 2013 7:04 PM  

OT: Breaking news! Hitler on the NASDAQ Halt!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-22/hitler-finds-out-about-nasdaq-halt

Anonymous jack August 22, 2013 7:08 PM  

@ JcClimber: I don't see how America wins by intervening in this one, beyond even a partial wag the dog type effect.

It becomes clear, to me, that, since Obama and his people have driven US military policy towards enablement of the caliphate and the Assad regime is secular islam at best, that that is the reason. Would it really be any surprise if, at the orders of the white house, chemical weapons were used in Syria? This administration seems to thrive on lies and the false flag doctrine.

The wonder of it all is that we the citizens here are putting up with all this. And, our military seems in lock step; at least at the upper command levels.

Anonymous Godfrey August 22, 2013 7:09 PM  

One good thing about the corrupt Obama regime, it hasn't invaded Syria or Iran yet. If it had been a corrupt Republican regime, it would have most likely started WWIII already.


Anonymous Salt August 22, 2013 7:11 PM  

According to Le Figaro, US troops and CIA, along with Jordanian and Israeli are now on the ground in Syria.

Blogger tz August 22, 2013 7:16 PM  

Or perhaps their neighbors did the deed. If they want us to attack Iran, they need to arrange a smoking-gun as mushroom cloud somewhere nearby.

The problem with forcing the West's hand is the rebels are Al-Queda.

And the unfortunate thing is the indigenous Christians who have fled Iraq went to Syria and will be slaughtered, as the Copts in Egypt - they are killing Christian Crusaders "over there" because we've made it slightly more difficult to do it "over here". I don't think they perceive Obama as pagan or secular, as much as someone like Baalam.

Anonymous Noah B. August 22, 2013 7:18 PM  

The key phrase here is "whole bunch." This was just a little bit of chemicals. I see wiggle room.

Blogger dienw August 22, 2013 7:18 PM  

Giving credit where credit is due: Lame Cherry

This was Obama through his CIA to his controlled Syrian "rebels."
To quote:"These WMD chems came directly to Syria from Iraq. No Saddam did not ship this weapons cache, but this cache was one in the Kurdish region by Mosul. They were located and under CIA control and recently entered in country to light the fuse in Syria.

Assad's people did not use these weapons. This was al Qaeda group which answers to 1600 Penn Avenue "

Anonymous Anonymous August 22, 2013 7:22 PM  

Not bothering with anything whatsoever emanating from the talking heads on the lobotomy box or radio, and not trusting a single word from gummint regarding much of anything but the weather report in and about DC (and I am not always sure, then!), the gummint (whichever branch - DC or Tel Aviv), reporting that Assad "did it" is pure propoganda.

What gets me are the numerous "conservative" illuminaries online who will reject what the gummint reports on virtually every other matter, but line up in brain-dead lockstep at the mere mention of military action. One actually said that the nerve gas bombings the other day, on the very anniversary of the Bammster's "red-line" - is proof positive it is Assad. I need to get that clown in touch with my realtor - perhaps I can finally sell that bridge I have had on the back forty forever.

How Israel benefits? Look at maps of "greater Israel."

Blogger Whiskey August 22, 2013 7:23 PM  

The thing you have to remember is that the ME, and Obama administration, is divided by Sunni/Shia conflict, and overlaid onto that, the struggle for the world price of oil.

US policy since FDR and 1944 has been for the USN to dominate the Persian Gulf and thus protect the KSA and Emirates and control the world price of oil. Simple, and something even Jimmy Carter amplified after the 1979-81 Hostage debacle with the Carter Doctrine explicitly promising US naval supremacy there.

Pretty much everything else is a nice to have, from policy perspective.

Overlaid onto this is the struggle by Iran and Russia (hence Russian and Chinese help with Iran's nukes) to boost the price of oil substantially. The FT did a back-envelope calculation and found Putin needs oil at $124 a barrel for his current budget, and around $150 per barrel for future budgets, in order to not run an unfundable deficit (because no one will lend him money -- he's not good for it). Iran needs it even higher. Thug patronage regimes are very strong as long as everyone gets paid. See Gorby, Soviet Union, fall of.

Iran and Russia are propping up Assad, to keep the Iranian empire and attempt to keep oil prices sky high on track. The KSA, UAE, and Israel have been mostly on the other side though the Israelis like the Assad regime more than AQ who would be the replacements. The Muslim Brotherhood (Malik Obama runs their foreign investments, nice to know the President's brother is keeping busy) was pro-Assad, until pressure from ultra-Salafists made them switch to anti-Shia jihad.

Valerie Jarret, dubbed "the real President" was born in Iran, speaks Farsi, and is solidly pro-Iranian and pro-Shia. Obama, however, has a brother in the now pro-Sunni jihad against the Shia Muslim Brotherhood. Obama was raised a Sunni (Indonesians are very Sunni) and had young adult ties to Sunnis (via his Pakistan "special friend" at Occidental, with whom he summered in Pakistan -- presumably for the chicks and beer -- while at Columbia).

Obama's policy is to blame US power and influence in the Gulf for every bad thing in history, and so destroy it. By backing the Brotherhood but not guaranteeing their continued rule, he lost Egypt (now in the Russian camp) and probably the Saudis (who were anti-Brotherhood because the Brothers wished to dump them from their corrupt and decadent rule in the Magic Kingdom). The Saudis know Obama is weak and divided between his Sunni and Shia influences. Between President Valerie and his boyhood ties.

FWIW, Benghazi was a coordinated effort by the CIA, which had a massive presence there, to run the late Colonel's MANPADs to Syrian AQ jihadis through Turkey. Hence the presence of the Turkish Ambassador at the meeting with the late Ambassador Stevens there, hundreds of miles from the Libyan capital in a known jihadi hotbed. Likely it was Iranian/Russian intelligence operatives who attacked the consulate and CIA outpost. AQ was getting serious weaponry out of it, they would not have attacked.

Obama wants war on the cheap. Drones, leading from behind, air strikes, etc. He's also divided. Half of him wants to make substitute Mama, Valerie, happy, and the other half his old Sunni pals happy. He'll probably dither us into a massive war on the periphery of the problem: Iran and Russia and their desire to pump oil (by intimidating the Saudis) to astronomical prices. Obama's probably OK with that, too. Since he hates White America as much as Chief Keef and his acolytes in Oklahoma.

Anonymous Noah B. August 22, 2013 7:35 PM  

The US is using the AQ rebels in Syria to fight a proxy war against Iran. Hence the recent bombings against Hezbollah in Lebanon. We're supporting the people who are blowing up Syria's petroleum pipelines, so this is about more than just manipulating the price of oil.

Blogger Tom Kratman August 22, 2013 7:46 PM  

Obama was clever enough - or at a minimum his speech writers were - to include a face saving weasel phrase: "Whole bunch." So with any luck at all, the US will huff and puff a bit rather than getting us in another war we simply cannot afford and possibly are no longer competent to fight.

Anonymous Feh August 22, 2013 7:47 PM  

Valerie Jarret, dubbed "the real President" was born in Iran, speaks Farsi, and is solidly pro-Iranian and pro-Shia.

Dude... I so did not know that! I thought she was a garden-variety Chicago socialist negress like Michelle.

Excellent post!

Anonymous DJF August 22, 2013 7:48 PM  

Saw a couple of our bi-partisan foreign policy “experts” on the news. Not only were they pushing the Syrian rebel story but they were so ignorant that they were demanding that Syrian government allow inspectors in to the site of the alleged gas attack. How is the Syrian government suppose to allow access when the territory is under rebel control?

Anonymous Mike M. August 22, 2013 7:48 PM  

I see the potential for an Obama "wag the dog" recognition of Syrian use of chemical weapons, but not agents provocateur.

Anonymous Samuel Scott August 22, 2013 7:57 PM  

JCclimber August 22, 2013 6:42 PM

I don't see how Israel really benefits, either.


From the chaos in Syria? Well, one view is that if Assad is busy trying to stay alive, then he has less time to support terrorists and funnel weapons from Iran into Lebanon. But the other argument is that Assad is better than the alternative -- meaning that he knows better than to attack Israel directly but that any new government might do so.

From ancient times to today, Israel has used the geopolitical strategy of pitting neighbors against each other. Israel has usually been a small(ish) country surrounded on three sides by large, powerful empires or countries. To survive, it has usually had to become an ally of one or more of them and/or make them fight each other. It's one example of how geography influences behavior.

A lot of this is in the Hebrew Bible; a lot more is in the news today.

Blogger CubuCoko August 22, 2013 8:01 PM  

One other thing to keep in mind is that Obama's foreign policy is run by the people who either ran, or were shaped by, the Clinton foreign policy. And the cornerstone of that was white-knighting around the world (e.g. Bosnia, Somalia, Kosovo, Haiti). Several prominent figures even spelled out that they expected the gratitude of the Muslim world for this. As with all white-knighting, it failed.

Anonymous zen0 August 22, 2013 8:41 PM  

Pravda :

Pravda remains sceptical



Quite apart from all this, why were the "videos" providing "evidence" of this alleged chemical weapons attack posted on August 20, when the attack was supposed to be made in the early hours of August 21? They were certainly not uploaded from Syria.

Anonymous zen0 August 22, 2013 8:43 PM  

link attempt 2

Anonymous Anonymous August 22, 2013 10:07 PM  

Whiskey- "in order to not run an unfundable deficit (because no one will lend him money -- he's not good for it)."

The banks would love to loan money to Putin and the Russian Government.

Putin paid off the Russian National Debt from Yeltson and ran out a lot of the financial parasites.

The only way they can get their hooks back into Russia is by loaning money to the Russian State; which at present doesn't need it.

Russia for the Russians, and all that.

Anonymous The other skeptic August 22, 2013 11:09 PM  

While at home: And thick and fast they came at last.

Elderly Vet dies after attack by vibrants

White Australian killed by vibrant youth

Memphis, TN, man killed by vibrant youth

High vibrant youth unemploment means more murders of whites.

Anonymous Anonymous August 23, 2013 12:02 AM  

ToS-

Those events, which most of us have duly noted earlier today or earlier . . .

Have absolutely nothing to do with Assad and Syria and the issue under discussion. Please try to stay on track.

;-) jb

Anonymous The other skeptic August 23, 2013 12:14 AM  

Have absolutely nothing to do with Assad and Syria and the issue under discussion. Please try to stay on track.

Of course it does. The pResident needs a distraction.

"I need a distraction that wont drive them crazy ..."

Anonymous LES August 23, 2013 12:55 AM  

End game? http://nogw.com/images/greater_israel.gif

Genesis 15:18

On that day the Lord made a covenant with Abram, saying,
“To your descendants I have given this land,
From the river of Egypt as far as the great river, the river Euphrates...”

Blogger gamma secret kings reddit August 23, 2013 1:28 AM  

What a absolute disaster of deception, timing and psy-ops.

Jesus said something about woe unto those who hurt children.

Anonymous Roundtine August 23, 2013 1:40 AM  

America says it will intervene if chemical weapons are used. Rebels are losing the war. Al-Qaeda decides to gas some kids. Technically, America should intervene in Syria and kill all the rebels.

Blogger Robert August 23, 2013 2:00 AM  

Liberals are really quite good at what they do, which is to be selectively offended.

Anonymous YIH August 23, 2013 3:16 AM  

Let's see; Has the capability to launch missiles with a viable chemical weapon warhead: check
Can be described as an enemy of Syria: check
Would take advantage of a Syrian civil war for it's own reasons: check
Draw your own conclusions...

Anonymous zen0 August 23, 2013 3:33 AM  

Roundtine August 23, 2013 1:40 AM

America says it will intervene if chemical weapons are used. Rebels are losing the war. Al-Qaeda decides to gas some kids. Technically, America should intervene in Syria and kill all the rebels.


That would have some logic to it. So far, however, all we have are unverified, anonymous videos of people pretending to be sick or dead. Happens in hollywood all the time. The thing about faking a chemical attack is that no limbs are severed and no blood is spilled.

The Palestinians do this a lot. Now, that is something that has been verified more than once.

Hollywood / Bollywood / Pallywood

Anonymous Porky August 23, 2013 9:34 AM  

Vox: "if I thought the Obama administration wanted yet another war on its hands - and I most certainly do not "

I most certainly do.

Anonymous Susan August 23, 2013 10:29 AM  

I agree with your assessment Vox in regards to staging the gassing. One other possibility is that one of the fools dropped a canister and it started leaking.

After all, there is a lot of litter and wreckage to trip over in Syria right now. (eyeroll)

I just keep remembering all the "for hire" angry muslims who would appear as wounded on a stretcher one day, next day would appear in a crowd of angry protesters. For example, the muslim known as angry man/boy from a couple of years ago.

Anonymous Josh August 23, 2013 10:32 AM  

On that day the Lord made a covenant with Abram, saying,“To your descendants I have given this land,From the river of Egypt as far as the great river, the river Euphrates...”

Wouldn't the descendents of Abram also include the Arabs?

Blogger Jordan179 August 23, 2013 11:30 AM  

I still remember the hell that Syria put Lebanon through, and the Syrian attacks on the United States of America, during the 1980's. My thoughts on the Syrian Civil War could be summed up as "Couldn't happen to a nicer country." I hope that the Syrian Civil War goes on for years to come, and utterly saps Syrian national strength.

Anonymous The other skeptic August 24, 2013 10:48 AM  

pResident prepares for action in Syria.

Anonymous Zen Zero August 28, 2013 12:24 AM  

"So far, however, all we have are unverified, anonymous videos of people pretending to be sick or dead. Happens in hollywood all the time. The thing about faking a chemical attack is that no limbs are severed and no blood is spilled."

You are no zen master, that is perfectly clear. Assad and his henchmen gassed his own people. FACT.

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2013/08/28/intercepted-calls-prove-syrian-army-used-nerve-gas-us-spies

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