ALL BLOG POSTS AND COMMENTS COPYRIGHT (C) 2003-2020 VOX DAY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION IS EXPRESSLY PROHIBITED.

Wednesday, October 09, 2013

Mailvox: what could possibly go wrong?

GV writes to observe that the USA is about to experiment with an economic application of Hultgreen-Curie Syndrome:
I was listing to the radio when I heard the news that Janet Yellen would be named the next fed chair.  I went online to confirm this story and found this news story by NBC News.

It appears you were right about what you wrote in your blog post on 9/16/2013 entitled The job no one wants.  You wrote that you assumed it would be Janet Yellen.  It's funny how the link to the NBC news story talks about her being the first women to head the central bank and some of her accomplishment but it leaves out the quote you put at the end of that blog post were she said the following;

 “For my own part I did not see and did not appreciate what the risks were with securitization, the credit ratings agencies, the shadow banking system, the S.I.V.’s — I didn’t see any of that coming until it happened."
- Janet Yellen, 2010

With someone like that in charge what could possibly go wrong.
Christine Lagarde at the IMF and Janet Yellen at the Fed. This should be an interesting test of whether putting women in charge will make it all better. I wouldn't mind being wrong, for all of our sakes, but I'm not terribly sanguine about the probabilities here.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard summarizes: "So there we have it. The next chairman of the Fed is going to track the labour participation rate. Money will stay loose."

Labels: , ,

181 Comments:

Blogger Francis W. Porretto October 09, 2013 4:08 AM  

I don't think it matters any longer who's "in charge" at the Fed. The institution exists to enable an insidious form of theft, the federal government is now wholly dependent on that mechanism, and the populace is re-learning the virtues of specie money, you might say, by force. The rush to the exits isn't far off now, so try not to get caught in the stampede.

Blogger Ron October 09, 2013 4:34 AM  

What do you think people should do to protect themselves from the coming disaster of an economic collapse? What is the practical difference between hyperinflation and hyper deflation (which Ive seen you write about)?

Anonymous zen0 October 09, 2013 4:41 AM  

Bloomberg has a story about women in charge in political positions in Norway, but still not CEO material.

Yet the corporate sphere remains a man’s world. Norway’s historic quota system for supervisory boards -- a model that is now being copied elsewhere in Europe -- is doing little to push women into executive roles.

Maybe Francis W. Porretto is correct in that it does not matter who is in charge in certain institutions because everything seems to be on autopilot.


Anonymous trk October 09, 2013 6:57 AM  

Since the fed is already broken, wouldn't adding a woman to the post actually fix everything?

Anonymous Roundtine October 09, 2013 6:59 AM  

I don't think it matters any longer who's "in charge" at the Fed.

It matters from the standpoint of the fools who trust in them. Get a white liberal alone and ask them about Obama. When the guy or gal at the top does not inspire confidence, the rabbits get worried. Ultimately it doesn't matter because historic trends will play out over time, but the timing of a crisis and blame for a crisis can be affected by the personality at the top. A "heroic" Chairman of the Fed could salvage the Fed even as the economy goes down the toilet, but a weaker leader may end up destroying the central bank itself.

So I guess we should all be optimistic and hopeful that Yellen fulfills her destiny.

Anonymous realmatt October 09, 2013 7:26 AM  

A collapse of our economic system and false civilization which has allowed the week and parasitic to survive will lead to the deaths of the weak and parasitic. Only the strong the family/ community minded and in extreme circumstances the absolute psychotic will survive.

Anonymous Rantor October 09, 2013 7:40 AM  

@realmatt, unfortunately Lagarde and Yellen are Psychotic... this does not look good.

Anonymous ZhukovG October 09, 2013 8:04 AM  

It is probably all just rearranging deck chairs on a doomed ship at this point. Though I tend to think of the ship as the Lusitania rather than the Titanic. The band won’t even have time to get warmed up before the bow hits the seabed.

Anonymous Paul October 09, 2013 8:16 AM  

To put things in perspective.

Women tend to be interfering busybodies who can't leave anything alone. (see Pandora, Eve, etc.)

Everything the government touches turns to shit.

What could go wrong?

Anonymous dB October 09, 2013 8:23 AM  

As of this writing, drudge has a headline on his page of "YELLEN TO RUN THE WORLD"

I immediately thought this "YELLEN TO RUIN THE WORLD", because you know, women ruin everything ;-)

And for those saying to bring on the collapse, do you really think the people left over from that fallout are the ones you would want rebuilding? Too many of the MPAIs will be still left around. Did you not see that story that most of americans fall behind for math. Too lazy to properly hyperlink this but here you go

http://news.yahoo.com/us-adults-score-below-average-worldwide-test-090114407.html

Anonymous John in Highland Park October 09, 2013 8:33 AM  

"What do you think people should do to protect themselves from the coming disaster of an economic collapse?"

You have to diversify yourself politicially. If you have the means, and it does not take much, you have to move assets offshore. The US government is moving into the termianl phase and the next time down there will be no outs. They have created a national security apparatus and when the next crisis hits they are going to lock this place down. if you and your money are not out by then you dont get out. Look at the other examples of throughout history. Remember there has never been in any paper currency that has not been destroyed by politicians. If you have all of your wealth in US dollars they will taxed or inflated away from you. Your government considers you a milk cow and if things get bad enough you may get treated as a beef cow.

Anonymous Stilicho October 09, 2013 8:40 AM  

What form will her innate risk aversion take?

Anonymous Anonymous October 09, 2013 8:51 AM  

I’d rather collapse it and try to rebuild than watch a slow decline as my freedoms just keep eroding away.

Not looking for Fallout3 but I am certainly willing to be rid of our current government and begin again with a fundamental reordering…it will take some type of serious collapse to bring that about.

I am a bit conflicted I guess, our corrupt government is just a reflection of a corrupt people. What gets rebuilt after a collapse might be worse.

Anonymous Anonymous October 09, 2013 8:53 AM  

all of your wealth in US dollars

Whew, glad I don’t have any wealth or I would be worried!

Blogger Crowhill October 09, 2013 8:59 AM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Crowhill October 09, 2013 8:59 AM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Crowhill October 09, 2013 9:01 AM  

I don't pretend to understand this stuff, but it seems to me that the Ambrose Evans-Pritchard article is giving her credit for seeing trouble ahead in 2007 and 2008. Am I reading that wrong?

Anonymous Jeromus October 09, 2013 9:16 AM  

Consequently, with the women in control of the money now would be a great time to invest in the fancy shoe industry.

Blogger IM2L844 October 09, 2013 9:20 AM  

Women tend to be interfering busybodies who can't leave anything alone. (see Pandora, Eve, [Windows 8], etc.)

Indeed. This is the one innate proclivity that is so strong that I've never been able to decisively break any woman of the desire. It's not that their intent is in any way malicious; they usually believe they are helping by making some "improvements". They simply can't resist. The best you can hope to do is anticipate it and try to subtly redirect the inclination toward a preselected satiating target. I doubt there is anyone with the chops or the foresight to reign in Yellen with this technique.

Anonymous JartStar October 09, 2013 9:23 AM  

After reading an article about her views on QE the question of if we are going to turn Japanese has been answered in the affirmative. What is most interesting is that she is going to mostly ignore the unemployment rate, but rather track the labor participation rate in regards to Fed policy. Her methods may be flawed, but she's looking at the right data.

I agree with Vox, I hope for all of our sakes she's able to stave off a collapse and bring about a better tomorrow.

Anonymous Noah B. October 09, 2013 9:25 AM  

So -- if we can all manage to stick together and quit working, we'll all be rich.

Anonymous JartStar October 09, 2013 9:27 AM  

One more thing. If we are truly turning Japanese or not is likely decided if the unemployment is structural or cyclical. I think most of the Ilk, including Vox tend to think that it is structural but Yellen does not.

I see the evidence as consistent with the view that the increase in unemployment since the onset of the Great Recession has been largely cyclical and not structural.

Anonymous Huckleberry - est. 1977 October 09, 2013 9:30 AM  

The fix is in.
The only bemusement left is to watch the horror on the faces of the team that thought they were the Globetrotters as the grow to realize they are in fact the Generals.
Janet, Patsy, whatever.

Anonymous joe doakes October 09, 2013 9:36 AM  

If Yellen yielded the floor to Vox who, in a fit of whimsy, accepted, what would Vox do as Fed Chairman to save the country?

Nate, same question?

Anonymous FUBAR Nation Ben October 09, 2013 9:40 AM  

The fed cannot keep money lose. Do you really think that pension funds are going to keep their money in low yielding bonds which over time would guarantee their insolvency? They are going to move money into the stock market resulting in a big rise. There is no where else to go.

Anonymous FUBAR Nation Ben October 09, 2013 9:43 AM  

It is too late to get your money out of the US. Due to the Foreign Account Tax Compliant Act, it is now basically impossible to open up a foreign bank account.

We are under siege.

Anonymous Anonymous October 09, 2013 9:46 AM  

As a pattern recognizer, Hillary will complete the trifecta as CIC, president

Anonymous Brother Thomas October 09, 2013 9:52 AM  

I'm gaining a new appreciation for Shakespeare.

Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,
Creeps in this petty pace from day to day,
To the last syllable of recorded time;
And all our yesterdays have lighted fools
The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!
Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage
And then is heard no more. It is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury
Signifying nothing. — Macbeth (Act 5, Scene 5, lines 17-28)


All is folly.

Anonymous Mr. Nightstick October 09, 2013 9:55 AM  

Anyone find a better source for her quote? I am having trouble substantiating it.

Anonymous Josh October 09, 2013 9:55 AM  

If the economy does not improve under Yellen, is the economy sexist?

Blogger Nate October 09, 2013 9:57 AM  

And suddenly some of the deflationists are wondering if maybe its time to switch sides.

Anonymous Josh October 09, 2013 10:01 AM  

Anyone find a better source for her quote? I am having trouble substantiating it.

It's from a NYT piece that zero hedge linked to

Anonymous Josh October 09, 2013 10:02 AM  

NYT Link

Anonymous Zurich Gnome October 09, 2013 10:07 AM  

One wag wrote that the Democratic party went from "It's all Bush's fault" in 2008 to "Nothing is Obama's fault" in 2009. This is what Goldman Sachs figured would happen when they gave $1M to Obama in 2008 and only $250K to McCain.

Rest assured that this policy will continue with Yellen. She, too, will be immune from criticism.

Just today I read in Salon that the Republicans (!) may cause a Depression if they don't approve more spending.

They are laying the foundation for Yellen's characterization as the next Great Savior of America, bravely fighting the Republican foe, no matter what she does.

Anonymous Will Best October 09, 2013 10:07 AM  

@ dB, If you remove the black and hispanics from our test scores you are left with a group of whites and asians that are in the top 5 in every category.

It is too late to get your money out of the US. Due to the Foreign Account Tax Compliant Act, it is now basically impossible to open up a foreign bank account.

Depends on how close you live to Canada or Mexico. You could always drive it across the bordered 5k at a time.

And really FATCA just means that if you leave, and want to keep your money, you won't ever be allowed back in. Which doesn't really matter because you aren't going back anyway.

Anonymous Mr. Nightstick October 09, 2013 10:12 AM  

Thanks Josh. This is golden.

Anonymous Salt October 09, 2013 10:13 AM  

Yellen's whole employment as cyclical is big trouble. By the time she comes to realize it's structural and systemic, the patient shall have been long dead.

Anonymous DonReynolds October 09, 2013 10:17 AM  

There is something pathological about Obama's mania for surrounding himself with female advisors. Is this a function of his reported double life as a homosexual? Is it about his absentee mom and being raised by his white grandparents? Is this his reaction to the stress of the office? Does he find women to be better followers than men? There may be a very simple explanation.

Just as likely, he may not be attracted to women, but may be uncomfortable working closely with men, especially in an environment when he is well-below-average in terms of experience. I have found that people with a good education are often uneasy when their peers have much more experience. Obama is still young enough that there are educated men with vastly more relevant experience still active in their careers, yet a generation ahead of him.

Anonymous 43rd Virginia Calalry October 09, 2013 10:23 AM  

Also Remember that Janet Yellen is a darling of the hard left.

Anonymous patrick kelly October 09, 2013 10:29 AM  

@rufusdog:"Whew, glad I don’t have any wealth or I would be worried!"

I feel your pain. Going long in cheap whiskey, the only investment I can afford.

Anonymous Eric C October 09, 2013 10:40 AM  

Going long in cheap whiskey, the only investment I can afford.

Buying a little ammo here and there probably wouldn't hurt either.
Very long shelf life, utile, and a liquid asset.

Anonymous DonReynolds October 09, 2013 10:40 AM  

IM2L844..... "This is the one innate proclivity that is so strong that I've never been able to decisively break any woman of the desire. It's not that their intent is in any way malicious; they usually believe they are helping by making some "improvements". They simply can't resist. The best you can hope to do is anticipate it and try to subtly redirect the inclination toward a preselected satiating target."

Very good point, bud. Now let me tell you the bad news....

Try this little experiment (which I have performed many times). After discussing to death, one of the latest "improvements", suddenly turn to them and ask....."What did I say?"
You will be completely amazed when they reply...."I do not remember" or "I was not paying attention". (They are not lying.)

One of the fastest ways to piss off a woman (and I have managed to do them all in my time) is to calmly and clearly repeat.....word for word......exactly what the woman has said earlier. She will normally refer to this as "using her words against her". (I have had some of my best arguments with women by agreeing with them!)

As many here already know, men and women communicate differently.......just as they reckon directions in a different way. Men send messages, which they expect you to take as factual or semi-factual, and retained for archive. Every word is important. Women communicate to share feelings, impressions, and mood. The actual words are not important. Facts and figures are not important. Units of measurement.....blah, who cares about that stuff? It is not what they say but how they say it. It is all about tone and "what you really mean", not the actual words used.

Anonymous Josh October 09, 2013 10:40 AM  

There is something pathological about Obama's mania for surrounding himself with female advisors.

You're an idiot. She wasn't even his first choice, Summers was, and he withdrew because he didn't want a contentious confirmation fight about his comments while president of Harvard. Obama was routinely criticized for having too many old white guys as his advisors in his first term.

But, since you've made the assertion, how many of Obama's advisors are women?

Anonymous Porky October 09, 2013 10:44 AM  

I like her. She's like a cute, feisty little hobbit.

Anonymous Josh October 09, 2013 10:48 AM  

I like her. She's like a cute, feisty little hobbit.

/facepalm

Anonymous VD October 09, 2013 10:52 AM  

And suddenly some of the deflationists are wondering if maybe its time to switch sides.

No, just because they're going to try doesn't mean they're going to succeed. We always knew they would try.

Anonymous John in Highland Park October 09, 2013 10:52 AM  

It is too late to get your money out of the US. Due to the Foreign Account Tax Compliant Act, it is now basically impossible to open up a foreign bank account.

This is not accurate. Yes, you have to report foriegn holdings totally $10,000 or more but it is still possible to move assets offshore. Two easy ways off the top of my head. You do not have to report foreign real estate holdings and you could put precious metals in a secure vault like Das Safe in Vienna. There are still banks and brokerages that will do business with Americans you just have to know who they are and where to find them. There are several resources for this. Simon Black is one. Mark Nestmann is another.

Blogger gamma secret kings reddit October 09, 2013 10:52 AM  

Yeah, we will see.

Anonymous Josh October 09, 2013 10:53 AM  

I like her. She's like a cute, feisty little hobbit.

/facepalm

Anonymous Brother Thomas October 09, 2013 10:55 AM  

The Left hates achievers. They hate those who create, build and invent. There is nothing they fear more than the potential success of an industrious neighbor. They want everybody dragged down to their level.

The Left are envious. They hate successful people because the successes of such people remind them of their own failures. They'd rather see the world burn than see their neighbor succeed.

Anonymous Josh October 09, 2013 10:56 AM  

No, just because they're going to try doesn't mean they're going to succeed. We always knew they would try.

There's two camps of deflationists, the "they can't do it even if they try" and the "the won't do it even if they can". Obviously you're in the former, but would you consider the latter to even be deflationists?

Anonymous Master Blaster October 09, 2013 10:59 AM  

Now that Auntie is being put in charge, the only real question is: who run Barter Town?

Anonymous Porky October 09, 2013 10:59 AM  

And suddenly some of the deflationists are wondering if maybe its time to switch sides.

More convinced than ever actually.

Anonymous Josh October 09, 2013 11:03 AM  

More convinced than ever actually.

You're a deflationist?

Dammit.

Anonymous E. PERLINE October 09, 2013 11:04 AM  

The Fed women are merely getting their turn as figureheads. The singular talent the chair must have is the ability to speak in Tongues, or Doubletalk, or Gibberish, with a hint of meaning so that so that the media people will have something to grasp onto.

Blogger Nate October 09, 2013 11:06 AM  

"No, just because they're going to try doesn't mean they're going to succeed. We always knew they would try."

There are deflationists out there that couch their views with the assumptions that people will behave in a reasonable manner. That is to say... they are deflationists because they don't think the folks in charge are dumb enough to go full Zimbabwe.

To them... I think this news will be disturbing.

This chick certainly appears capable of going full Zimbabwe.

Blogger Nate October 09, 2013 11:07 AM  

'More convinced than ever actually. "

***snicker***

Anonymous Anonymous October 09, 2013 11:08 AM  

Hultgreen-Curie Syndrome?

Stockholm syndrome?
Manchurian Candidates?
Brondo Syndrome?

CaptDMO

Blogger rycamor October 09, 2013 11:10 AM  

VD October 09, 2013 10:52 AM

And suddenly some of the deflationists are wondering if maybe its time to switch sides.

No, just because they're going to try doesn't mean they're going to succeed. We always knew they would try.


Are you familiar with Antal Fekete? Just caught his interview on The Keiser Report, and this guy is a major deflationista: http://rt.com/shows/keiser-report/episode-507-max-keiser-847/ (see second half, about 15:30). In fact, he is using the term "hyper-deflation", predicting that not only will all this debt inflation fail to halt deflation, but it's actually making it worse.

Anonymous Noah B. October 09, 2013 11:17 AM  

"That is to say... they are deflationists because they don't think the folks in charge are dumb enough to go full Zimbabwe."

Although they don't seem to have fallen solidly into the WZ camp, Zerohedge has taken the position that the Fed doesn't care about the value of the assets on its books. And I really can't see a good argument to the contrary. After all, profits the Fed makes simply go over to the US Treasury.

Anonymous JartStar October 09, 2013 11:18 AM  

The question isn't if they can do it (cause massive inflation) the question is can they do it under the current rules. My opinion it is nearly impossible with the current structure if nobody outside of the Fed is willing to take on the debt.

Blogger James Dixon October 09, 2013 11:19 AM  

We certainly live in interesting times. Oh well, I never expected to live forever or be able to retire.

Anonymous Noah B. October 09, 2013 11:21 AM  

JartStar, what would prevent the Fed from buying state and local government bonds instead of Treasury bonds? They have the potential to get extremely creative if the need arises.

Blogger James Dixon October 09, 2013 11:21 AM  

Which is the major argument for them changing the current structure, JartStar.

Blogger IM2L844 October 09, 2013 11:23 AM  

Try this little experiment (which I have performed many times). After discussing to death, one of the latest "improvements", suddenly turn to them and ask....."What did I say?"

Yes, you're right Don, but I gave up that fight a long time ago. When dealing with women, one of the important things to understand is that it's not that nails that need hammering do not exist. It's that to a hammer, EVERYTHING looks like a nail but all women have pet "nails". Learning to point out and/or create pet nail opportunities for them is much more productive than trying to get them to always be considerate and try to see things from your perspective (can't be done) or engaging in pissing contests with them. It can even be fun to watch the unfolding.


I think Obama's apparent pathology is rooted in the common dynamic of being intimidated by women. This causes all sorts of distortions in perception and affects his interactions with men as well. There is a distinct advantage to being raised in the company of good looking smart women with all their private imperfections consistently on display in one way or another. That kind of buffers the female mystique and intrigue that many men, like Obama, find difficult to navigate.

Anyway, about the economy, I've always wondered if it would be better in the long run to have interests rates pegged to inflation with some kind of calculable dynamic triggers investors could predictably depend on.

Anonymous Josh October 09, 2013 11:23 AM  

And I really can't see a good argument to the contrary. After all, profits the Fed makes simply go over to the US Treasury.

I can. If the Fed's asset values collapse, the Fed could actually start losing money, and would no longer be able to continue to prop up the market with bond purchases.

Anonymous DonReynolds October 09, 2013 11:24 AM  

Josh...."But, since you've made the assertion, how many of Obama's advisors are women?"

Since you asked, I will respond accordingly:

Ambassador to the United Nations.....Powers
Assist. to President for National Security Affairs......Rice
Chair/Council on Environmental Quality.......Sutley
Director/Office of Administration......Jones
Director/OMB......Burwell
Asst. to the President Domestic Policy.......Munoz
Special Asst to President Faithbased Partnerships.....Rogers
Asst to the President for Communications.....Palmieri
Senior Advisor to the President......Jerrett
Assistant to the President (legal) Counsel......Rummeler
Secretary of State.....until recently......Clinton
Secretary of the Interior......Jewell
Secretary of Commerce.....Pritzker.....formerly Rebecca Blank
Secretary of Labor.......Solis
Secretary of Health & Human Services......Sebelius
Secretary of Homeland Security......Nepolitano (until recently)
Administrator EPA.......McCarthy.....formerly Jackson
Administrator SBA......Hulit

Anonymous JartStar October 09, 2013 11:26 AM  

It's all over when the Fed has to make treasury purchases for the government to pay interest on its debt. Up until then, nearly anything can happen.

Anonymous Josh October 09, 2013 11:26 AM  

JartStar, what would prevent the Fed from buying state and local government bonds instead of Treasury bonds? They have the potential to get extremely creative if the need arises.

Asset quality and volume.

Anonymous Noah B. October 09, 2013 11:27 AM  

"I can. If the Fed's asset values collapse, the Fed could actually start losing money, and would no longer be able to continue to prop up the market with bond purchases."

Why would losing book value of existing assets keep the Fed from creating new money to buy new assets?

Blogger Eric Wilson October 09, 2013 11:30 AM  

OT: Teh gays especially lesbians make terrible parents

Anonymous Noah B. October 09, 2013 11:32 AM  

"Asset quality and volume."

The "volume" argument is sound. The Fed can't buy what no one is willing to sell.

But the "asset quality" argument goes back to the assumption/belief that the Fed is concerned with the book value of its assets. If the Fed's assets lose book value, what happens? Nothing, right?

Anonymous Noah B. October 09, 2013 11:35 AM  

OK, there is one consequence of the Fed's assets losing book value that I can see: they lose the future ability to sell those assets and contract the money supply. Which no one is even considering doing anymore. Bernanke quit talking about an exit strategy a long time ago.

Anonymous Josh October 09, 2013 11:37 AM  

Since you asked, I will respond accordingly:

Thank you.

However, most of those wouldn't be considered part of his inner circle.

Obama’s Top White House Aides are Almost All Men

Of what are arguably the ten top most important White House advisers, only one – Senior Advisor Valerie Jarrett – is a woman. Jarrett is also African American.

But the other nine are each white men: Vice President Joe Biden; Senior Advisor David Plouffe; Chief of Staff Jack Lew; National Security Advisor Tom Donilon; Counselor to the President Pete Rouse; National Economic Council Director Gene Sperling; Communications Director Dan Pfeiffer; Acting OMB Director Jeffrey Zients; and Press Secretary Jay Carney.


Obviously that composition has changed since last year, but the talk radio narrative that Obama is surrounding himself with women is clearly false.

Anonymous bob k. mando October 09, 2013 11:45 AM  

FUBAR Nation Ben October 09, 2013 9:43 AM
It is too late to get your money out of the US.




BS.

convert to gold or silver / some other commodity and transport out of the country without declaring. this means you'll need a decent sized boat of your own or an RV to go to Canada or Mexico / points south.

you can't get ALL of your money out but you can get a sizable enough sum that you could live comfortably.




DonReynolds October 09, 2013 10:40 AM
Women communicate to share feelings, impressions, and mood. The actual words are not important



oh really? are you CERTAIN that you've had a lot of arguments with women?

when a woman finds it useful, she will be quite demanding that you remember what she said *exactly how she said it*. a lot of left hand bell curve men get tripped up by that.




on the Holtgreen-Curie tangent:
NASCAR is amusing me. they've started paying about as much attention to Danica as they pay to Jennifer Jo Cobb. that is to say, they now mostly ignore her unless she's crashing.

it's so refreshing to come back from a commercial break and NOT have to be greeted by the in car camera view of a car that is 2 laps down ( Danica ).

Anonymous Josh October 09, 2013 11:45 AM  

This discusses how the Fed can lose money.

Given the composition of the Fed's assets, when interest rates start rising, the immediate effect on the Fed's income will be negligible. But the Fed's interest expense will respond immediately, because the interest it is paying is interest on deposits that commercial banks are free to withdraw without notice. That's not a healthy combination. Short-term rates would only need to rise above 6.5% for the cost of keeping the $1 trillion sequestered to exceed all of the Fed's income. The Federal Reserve would be operating at a loss.

Anonymous civilServant October 09, 2013 11:49 AM  

Christine Lagarde at the IMF and Janet Yellen at the Fed. This should be an interesting test of whether putting women in charge will make it all better.

You sound like Paul in 1Tim2:14.

Are there any men more qualified than Yellen?

Anonymous Krul October 09, 2013 11:52 AM  

It occurs to me that this may be a sign that power is shifting away from the Fed and IMF. In this piece, The Last Psychiatrist points out a possible pattern: when women take over a "powerful" institution, it's because the actual power has already shifted elsewhere.

I don't want to be cynical, but boy oh boy is it hard not to observe that at the very moment in our history when we have the most women in the Senate, Congress is perceived to be pathetic, bickering, easily manipulated and powerless, and I'll risk the blowback and say that those are all stereotypes of women. Easy, HuffPo, I know it's not causal, I am saying the reverse: that if some field keeps the trappings of power but loses actual power, women enter it in droves and men abandon it like the Roanoke Colony. Again we must ask the question: if power seeking men aren't running for Senate, where did they go? Meanwhile all the lobbyists and Wall Street bankers are men, isn't that odd?

Anonymous civilServant October 09, 2013 12:03 PM  

This chick certainly appears capable of going full Zimbabwe.

She will print currency. Only a handful will receive most of it. The rest will receive little of it. Is that inflation or deflation?

Anonymous Noah B. October 09, 2013 12:04 PM  

Good article, Josh. Rising interest rates are going to cause massive problems for the Treasury too, of course. And the only thing keeping interest rates low are the Fed's asset purchases...

It's not that deflation cannot happen. It's that, in this hyper-leveraged environment, any widespread deflation will quickly become a deflationary collapse in the absence of central bank action, and avoiding a deflationary collapse is the Fed's top priority.

Anonymous Noah B. October 09, 2013 12:06 PM  

Nothing you haven't heard before though, I'm sure. Fire and ice and all that.

Anonymous Molon Rouge October 09, 2013 12:12 PM  

The new Thelma and Louise,,,,,,,

"Janet!" said Hillary,with an loving excitement in her voice, "Turn left here!" Janet looks out the rear view mirror to see the hoards advancing on them with empty wallets fluttering in the breeze. "Gosh, Hill, I have been turning left for the last hour, and they are still getting closer!!" Hill sits on the leatherette seat in her cutoff jeans fingering a loose thread,,,"Well, try a hard right and floor the gas pedal!!" Janet nods and swings the wheel right, with her little stubby arms, and goes wide eyed now noticing the large chasm she was seemingly blinded to,,,,"Oh, Hell,,i mean Hill, this doesn't look good at all!" the dusty convertible zooms off the precipice,,, Hillary and Janet scream as they swoop down to their final resting places and with their last thoughts blame the patriarchal system that built their over-powered vehicle,,,"If it only had four cylinders in stead of eight!!" screams Janet with a final toss of her brilliant silver curls,,,

Blogger Nate October 09, 2013 12:13 PM  

"Good article, Josh. Rising interest rates are going to cause massive problems for the Treasury too, of course."

Interest rates cannot rise. Period. Interest rates going up as little as 2 points would trigger an avalanche of 43 Trillion dollars in derivatives.

Think about that scale for a little while. Consider how many times larger that is than the Gross World Product... I mean to such an extent that such a thing can be calculated.

Blogger swiftfoxmark2 October 09, 2013 12:13 PM  

She will print currency. Only a handful will receive most of it. The rest will receive little of it. Is that inflation or deflation?

And that is the big question that has many of us on edge.

Since the Federal government cannot keep on borrowing money indefinitely, despite all its nukes, it really is a race to see which happens first: will the USGov default or will their excessive borrowing trigger hyper-inflation?

Eventually, the people who buy US Debt will stop doing so. It is inevitable. Infinity is a concept, not a reality, something our monetary overlords seem to neglect.

Blogger swiftfoxmark2 October 09, 2013 12:16 PM  

Are there any men more qualified than Yellen?

Yes. When it comes to positions that are selected by the President and approved by the Senate, there is always a better man for the job.

Anonymous Josh October 09, 2013 12:17 PM  

Interest rates cannot rise. Period. Interest rates going up as little as 2 points would trigger an avalanche of 43 Trillion dollars in derivatives.

And yet we've already seen mortgage rates go up in the last six months.

Anonymous Noah B. October 09, 2013 12:21 PM  

Mortgage rates have dipped back down recently, though. And, most importantly, they can get away with screwing homeowners. They can't get away with the market for interest rate swaps imploding.

Anonymous FUBAR Nation Ben October 09, 2013 12:25 PM  

Interest rates can and will rise. The fed does not have control over long term interest rates.

Anonymous FUBAR Nation Ben October 09, 2013 12:29 PM  

bob k. mando, if you transport gold/silver over the border you risk getting caught.

They can take your money by invoking asset forfeiture and making up a story that you were engaged in a crime, without a warrant.

Good luck transporting that money to mexico. It'll probably all be stolen.

Canada may be an option though. If you are familiar with the sparsely populated areas of the dakotas, there are probably ways to sneak across without being seen by the drones.

Blogger JartStar October 09, 2013 12:30 PM  

How is the Fed different than the BOJ for controlling interest rates? Japan has kept them at zero or near zero for over a decade.

Anonymous Josh October 09, 2013 12:31 PM  

Nate, what's the game plan for preventing interest rates from rising?

Anonymous FUBAR Nation Ben October 09, 2013 12:41 PM  

This is classic Taleb. All of these moves by the Fed and other central banks are just building up fragility into the financial system. Don't be surprised when the world implodes over the next couple of years.

The stars are in alignment for a major geopolitical event in 2014: every 25 years there is one: 1914; 1939; 1964 (anyone here a vietnam vet?); 1989; 2014?

The next couple of years should see the rise of the dollar/stock market.

Anonymous AJW308 October 09, 2013 12:55 PM  

What form will her innate risk aversion take?
She'll appeal to the authority of the office of the President to enforce her decisions, perhaps.

Anonymous Josh October 09, 2013 12:55 PM  

The stars are in alignment for a major geopolitical event in 2014: every 25 years there is one: 1914; 1939; 1964 (anyone here a vietnam vet?); 1989; 2014?

You wouldn't consider 2001 one?

Blogger Nate October 09, 2013 1:04 PM  

"And yet we've already seen mortgage rates go up in the last six months."

Not enough. to trigger the derivatives they would have to go up a full 2 and half points.

Anonymous civilServant October 09, 2013 1:07 PM  

Interest rates cannot rise. Period. Interest rates going up as little as 2 points would trigger an avalanche of 43 Trillion dollars in derivatives.

Since the Federal government cannot keep on borrowing money indefinitely ... Eventually, the people who buy US Debt will stop doing so.

You write as if the dollar were come kind of impartial objective rule-based means of exchange. It is not.

Blogger Nate October 09, 2013 1:07 PM  

"Nate, what's the game plan for preventing interest rates from rising?"

They don't have one. They are just going to keep pumping money and pray something changes... while also praying nothing changes.

I coined the term Clustafutastrophe for a reason.

Blogger Nate October 09, 2013 1:11 PM  

"You write as if the dollar were come kind of impartial objective rule-based means of exchange. It is not."

No. We don't.

You just can't read.

Anonymous FUBAR Nation Ben October 09, 2013 1:14 PM  

Josh, 9/11 didn't start a major war like WWI, WWII, Vietnam or the breakup of the Soviet Union. It's significant but not on part with those events.

Anonymous FUBAR Nation Ben October 09, 2013 1:15 PM  

The wars started after 9/11 were minor and basically exhausted the US hegemony. I think it was a setup for something much bigger, unfortunately.

Blogger James Dixon October 09, 2013 1:15 PM  

You don't consider the global war on terror to be a major war? We've already been fighting it for 13 years.

Anonymous FUBAR Nation Ben October 09, 2013 1:27 PM  

Not compared to what's coming, James. A war between the US, China and Russia would put those wars to shame.

Anonymous Noah B. October 09, 2013 1:46 PM  

"Nate, what's the game plan for preventing interest rates from rising?"

Lie, lie, and lie some more.

Anonymous Noah B. October 09, 2013 1:49 PM  

The approach they seem to have used for a number of years now is to use easy money to keep offered rates low but put all kinds of obstacles in place to keep people from actually borrowing at low rates.

Anonymous FUBAR Nation Ben October 09, 2013 1:49 PM  

Nate, where are pension funds going to put their money if interest rates remain where they are at for the extended future?

Blogger Nate October 09, 2013 1:57 PM  

"Nate, where are pension funds going to put their money if interest rates remain where they are at for the extended future?"

There is no extended future. It all blows up in 2015 or maybe as late as 2016. The funds will have already lost everything... or have been siezed by the government or banks.

Blogger James Dixon October 09, 2013 2:02 PM  

I'm not sure there will be enough time for them to seize everything by 2016, Nate.

Anonymous Noah B. October 09, 2013 2:02 PM  

Yep. Pension funds are where the money is. It's all going to be stolen one way or another.

Blogger James Dixon October 09, 2013 2:04 PM  

Is the money still in pension funds? Or have they been surpassed by 401K's and IRA's? I'd guess the latter.

Blogger Nate October 09, 2013 2:07 PM  

'I'm not sure there will be enough time for them to seize everything by 2016, Nate."

I would suggest that the thing to remember... is just that things are so totally wrecked right now that anything... up to and including Fallout 4 Live! is on the table.

The financial is so screwed up we can't even estimate our own money supply.

Think about that.

Anonymous Sigyn October 09, 2013 2:07 PM  

You wouldn't consider 2001 one?

I consider it more of an odyssey than an event.

*ducks*

Blogger James Dixon October 09, 2013 2:08 PM  

This chart may be informative.

Anonymous DonReynolds October 09, 2013 2:08 PM  

Josh....."But the other nine are each white men:"

Using your own list......

Vice President Joe Biden;
Senior Advisor David Plouffe; (Obama's campaign manager, already gone as of last January, replaced by Daniel Pfeiffer)
Chief of Staff Jack Lew; (now Secretary of the Treasury, formerly Deputy Secretary of State under Hillary Clinton, replaced by Denis McDonough)
National Security Advisor Tom Donilon; (resigned last June, replaced by Susan Rice)
Counselor to the President Pete Rouse; (was Chief of Staff when Obama was US Senator, reportedly retiring in a few weeks)
National Economic Council Director Gene Sperling; Communications Director Dan Pfeiffer; (replaced by Jenifer Palmieri last January)
Acting OMB Director Jeffrey Zients; (replaced by Sylvia Burwell last April)
and Press Secretary Jay Carney.

and please add the following influential advisors:

Ambassador to the United Nations.....Powers
Assist to President for National Security Affairs......Rice
Chair/Council on Environmental Quality.......Sutley
Director/Office of Administration......Jones
Asst. to the President Domestic Policy.......Munoz
Special Asst to President Faithbased Partnerships.....Rogers
Assistant to the President (legal) Counsel......Rummeler
Secretary of the Interior......Jewell
Secretary of Commerce.....Pritzker.....formerly Rebecca Blank
Secretary of Labor.......Solis
Secretary of Health & Human Services......Sebelius
Secretary of Homeland Security......Nepolitano (until recently)
Administrator EPA.......McCarthy.....formerly Jackson
Administrator SBA......Hulit

Anonymous Noah B. October 09, 2013 2:09 PM  

I was lumping all that together, James. I'd say 401k's and IRA's are larger but I'm really not sure. Point is, all of that money has major strings attached already. It wouldn't take much for the government to double early withdrawal penalties, increase the required withdrawal amounts, etc. It's the low hanging fruit.

Blogger James Dixon October 09, 2013 2:11 PM  

> Think about that.

Oh, I have. Why do you think we live where we do?

Anonymous Noah B. October 09, 2013 2:12 PM  

Where do you live, James?

Blogger James Dixon October 09, 2013 2:13 PM  

> I was lumping all that together, James.

OK. But 401K's and IRA's are far more dispersed than traditional pension plans. It'll be a lot more work to track then down and seize them. Not impossible, but they won't be the first target.

Blogger James Dixon October 09, 2013 2:13 PM  

Outside Mannington, WV.

Anonymous Noah B. October 09, 2013 2:17 PM  

It wouldn't be necessary to seize every individual IRA and 401k plan. Those are already managed by custodians of some kind. All they have to do is suddenly impose new requirements that the custodians will be bound by law to enforce. It's already a headache to move an IRA from one bank to another.

Anonymous civilServant October 09, 2013 2:17 PM  

You write as if the dollar were come kind of impartial objective rule-based means of exchange. It is not.

No. We don't.

You just can't read.


Indeed? And yet you write ...

The financial is so screwed up we can't even estimate our own money supply.

Who is this "we" and "our" of which you speak? Be assured the currency owners know exactly where they stand in relation to the rest of us.

What we are seeing is neither inflation nor deflation as such. It is redistribution.

Anonymous DonReynolds October 09, 2013 2:17 PM  

James Dixon....."You don't consider the global war on terror to be a major war? We've already been fighting it for 13 years."

The US wars in the Philippine Islands lasted longer (after 1898), with similar loses, both military and civilian. Was that a major war too?

Blogger Nate October 09, 2013 2:28 PM  

"The financial is so screwed up we can't even estimate our own money supply."

Which is totally unrelated to any kind claims about the mythical objective value of the dollar. Like Porky... you just string words together that you don't understand and pretend you've made a point.

Anonymous Porky October 09, 2013 2:29 PM  

You're a deflationist?

Dammit.


I'll go on record as predicting deflation followed by hyperinflation - strictly on the basis of psychology.

Hyperinflation and death of the dollar is the progressive endgame. However, panic is a terrible way to institutionalize neo-feudalism. Deflation is more like an extended siege - it will sap the will of the proles and bring them into submission.

It will be an unprecedented credit collapse first, a period of deflation, and then (after maximal assets have been foreclosed) an orchestrated extinguishing of confidence in the dollar.

Hope I'm wrong. But I'm guessing not.


Blogger James Dixon October 09, 2013 2:31 PM  

> Deflation is more like an extended siege - it will sap the will of the proles and bring them into submission.

Most people would probably welcome mild deflation. It's not the catastrophe the media and government officials make it out to be.

Anonymous Josh October 09, 2013 2:34 PM  

Using your own list......

It's not my list, it's a journalist's list.

Anonymous Josh October 09, 2013 2:40 PM  

Josh, 9/11 didn't start a major war like WWI, WWII, Vietnam or the breakup of the Soviet Union. It's significant but not on part with those events.

What major war did the breakup of the Soviet Union start?

Also, Korea was as major of a war as Vietnam.

Anonymous Porky October 09, 2013 2:45 PM  

Most people would probably welcome mild deflation.

If they have a job and are out of debt.

But if college graduation trends are any indication, a good chunk of our young demographic is entering this crisis with no job and massive debt.

Blogger James Dixon October 09, 2013 2:57 PM  

> ,,,a good chunk of our young demographic is entering this crisis with no job and massive debt.

And no assets that can be taken. So what to they care if they default?

Anonymous Noah B. October 09, 2013 3:06 PM  

"So what to they care if they default?"

It all depends on the nature of the debt. If it's a credit card or car loan, walking away isn't that big a deal.

If it's a student loan that never goes away and can never be discharged in bankruptcy, a default is the road to debt serfdom.

Anonymous Porky October 09, 2013 3:24 PM  

Yup. Permanent indebtedness is a feature of neofeudalism, not a bug.

Anonymous JartStar October 09, 2013 3:37 PM  

And no assets that can be taken. So what to they care if they default?

Because there's no indication that their personal debt (student loans) would be expunged, in fact in the effort to raise revenue or find workers it might be harshly enforced. After a crash there's no guarantee their prospects would be any better either. If you really want to be pessimistic it's possible that with a big enough crash parts of the US could look like Syria does now.

If I were in their shoes I'd definitely not want a crash, their best hope is a near miraculous recovery in the next 5-10 years. Without it, they will be competing with the next generation with a mountain of debt and a spotty work history.

Anonymous Dr. Doom October 09, 2013 3:41 PM  

This situation has to lead to Hyperinflation. Deflation would mean that prices of commodities would have to come down, and at these rates of inflation that must be around 25-30% a year no could afford to lower prices without bankrupting themselves.
Anyone not directly in the flow of the money supply, even billionaires, will be wiped out, but banks are counting on their stooges at the Federal Reserve to inflate their capital with low or no interest loans to keep them from going under.
The FEDGOV has to keep creating dollars, because even the Chinese Communists won't buy their bonds anymore! No one in their right minds would buy bonds from a country that has Trillion Dollar deficits every year! Uncle Sam is a junk bond dealer now!

Anonymous bob k. mando October 09, 2013 3:45 PM  

FUBAR Nation Ben October 09, 2013 12:29 PM
Canada may be an option though. If you are familiar with the sparsely populated areas of the dakotas, there are probably ways to sneak across without being seen by the drones.



don't count on that.

i was talking to a driver who had been hunting the property of one of his friends on the Canadian border up in bumfuck Montana. he was on an atv trailing a deer that he had wounded and he knew he had been getting a little bit north. all of a sudden he had a helicopter on him demanding that he disarm and explain himself. he'd been stopped by Mounties, US Border Patrol showed up a couple minutes later.

i think it interesting that Canadian and northern US border forces don't seem to have much trouble covering the boonies on that border but it's just 'impossible' to enforce the southern border.

better to establish a history of crossing the border AT THE REGULAR CROSSINGS so they don't pay much attention to you.

alternatively, you could try going through Derby Line VT.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haskell_Free_Library_and_Opera_House

needless to say, you should make several 'clean' trips through no matter what your choice is before you attempt your transport.

you can justify land crossings by getting a job in transportation ( i've gone to QC a half dozen times this year ). if you're going to go by sea, you'll need to establish yourself in the sailing / boating community.


FUBAR Nation Ben October 09, 2013 1:27 PM
A war between the US, China and Russia would put those wars to shame.



i kind of doubt China will actually want to do the full hokey pokey with us, simply because it would render all of their US bonds worthless. Russia though, Russia has been tapering off their T-bill holdings. and it would be just like Russia to take us out and leave the Chinks crying in their rice wine.
http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt



Josh October 09, 2013 2:40 PM
Also, Korea was as major of a war as Vietnam.



hooo weee, that's an understatement.

the US was directly engaged against regular Chicom armor and Russkie fighter pilots in the Korean war. strategically, Korea was a much bigger deal.




James Dixon October 09, 2013 2:57 PM
And no assets that can be taken. So what to they care if they default?



that's the point. by law, they CAN'T default on edu debt. not without permanently going into the black labor market or emigrating and making it unpractical for the Feds to collect on them.



Blogger rycamor October 09, 2013 3:50 PM  

Porky October 09, 2013 3:24 PM

Yup. Permanent indebtedness is a feature of neofeudalism, not a bug.


It's going to lead to the biggest black market the world has ever seen. All the drones and RFID chips in the world can't stop it if a significant % of the population does it. Why do you think "off the grid" living is such a popular topic these days? Those who have nothing to lose by leaving the system and nothing but permanent slavery if they stick to it will make their decision.

Blogger James Dixon October 09, 2013 4:10 PM  

> If it's a student loan that never goes away and can never be discharged in bankruptcy, a default is the road to debt serfdom.

Yep. And with no prospects of ever getting a job, this matters how?

> Because there's no indication that their personal debt (student loans) would be expunged,

And never be repaid either.

> ... by law, they CAN'T default on edu debt. not without permanently going into the black labor market or emigrating and making it unpractical for the Feds to collect on them.

Again, with no prospects of legal work, what do they care. You're arguing from the viewpoint of a functioning economy, which we no longer have.

Anonymous Porky October 09, 2013 4:12 PM  

Those who have nothing to lose by leaving the system and nothing but permanent slavery if they stick to it will make their decision.

There won't be any "off the grid" to speak of. The USG holds allodial title to every square inch of land. This won't be like those "dang revenuers" knocking on cabin doors in 1935 appalachia. Todays IRS and DHS are heavily armed and being prepared for this moment.

Anonymous Dr. Doom October 09, 2013 4:31 PM  

Seriously, Porky are you worried about DHS or armed accountants? Did you see these crack DHS troops when they captured that unarmed Chenchen bomber? They locked down an entire neighborhood, brought in an armored vehicle and used automatic weapons to make an arrest that Barney Fife with one bullet in his revolver could have made by himself!
The DHS agents look like Paul Blart Mall Cop in a G.I.Joe Halloween costume! These clowns are going to be a turkey shoot!
The thing you should be worried about is the Zombie Apocalyse on the Day the EBT Card Runs Out! A mob of a hundred or more angry zombies looking to eat your brain and anything else that is edible roaming around without serious resistance should worry you far more than Uncle Obama's Army of somewhat trained illiterate former fast food industry workers!

Anonymous Josh October 09, 2013 4:46 PM  

There won't be any "off the grid" to speak of. The USG holds allodial title to every square inch of land. This won't be like those "dang revenuers" knocking on cabin doors in 1935 appalachia. Todays IRS and DHS are heavily armed and being prepared for this moment.

Yes, the same government that lost in Afghanistan...

Look at the feeble response to the Boston bombings and Chris Dorner.

Anonymous Porky October 09, 2013 4:52 PM  

"So long as they (the Proles) continued to work and breed, their other activities were without importance. Left to themselves, like cattle turned loose upon the plains of Argentina, they had reverted to a style of life that appeared to be natural to them, a sort of ancestral pattern...Heavy physical work, the care of home and children, petty quarrels with neighbors, films, football, beer and above all, gambling filled up the horizon of their minds. To keep them in control was not difficult.”

It won't be such a bad life, Josh. Just pay your taxes and everything will be fine.

Anonymous FUBAR Nation Ben October 09, 2013 4:52 PM  

Josh I said a major geopolitical event. It could be a war or a breakup of an empire, or a number of different things.

Anonymous Noah B. October 09, 2013 4:53 PM  

Yes, the same government that lost in Afghanistan...

And got their asses handed to them when they attacked a church in Waco. For which they had to literally bring in the Hostage Rescue Team with equipment from the National Guard in order to win.

Anonymous Noah B. October 09, 2013 4:55 PM  

It could be a war or a breakup of an empire...

The economy is so feeble, it could be the breakup of the Kardashians that pushes us over the edge.

Anonymous Josh October 09, 2013 5:00 PM  

Josh I said a major geopolitical event. It could be a war or a breakup of an empire, or a number of different things.

And yet 9/11 doesn't qualify as a major geopolitical event? It launched more than a decade of American intervention in the middle east and Africa. I fail to see how Vietnam qualifies but Korea and the Global War Against Scary Brown People do not.

Anonymous FUBAR Nation Ben October 09, 2013 5:06 PM  

Korea was minor compared to Vietnam, which destroyed America's morale.

The scope of the post 9/11 wars were by historical standards very small.

Anonymous JartStar October 09, 2013 5:07 PM  

Yes, the same government that lost in Afghanistan...

Then Syria here we come. I'd advise anyone who eagerly waits a crash and conflict on US soil to spend 5 minutes browsing through the pictures of that ~3 year old conflict see if that is what you want here. If a crash leads to a 4th generation war on US soil God help us all, literally.

If you wish for that here you are at the very least crazy, if not downright evil.

Anonymous Noah B. October 09, 2013 5:12 PM  

"If you wish for that here you are at the very least crazy, if not downright evil."

Couple of points -- predicting something is not the same thing as wishing for it. Second -- as bad as things may be in Syria, they could be much worse.

Anonymous Josh October 09, 2013 5:15 PM  

Korea was minor compared to Vietnam, which destroyed America's morale.

The scope of the post 9/11 wars were by historical standards very small.


Korea was a similar scale to Vietnam.

Iraq/Afghanistan seem to have also destroyed America's morale.

And how are you measuring the scale of Vietnam compared to our current adventures?

Blogger Nate October 09, 2013 5:16 PM  

"Korea was minor compared to Vietnam, which destroyed America's morale.

The scope of the post 9/11 wars were by historical standards very small."

We don't yet know what the scope of 9/11 was. Much like in 1970 the legacy of Nam was also unsettled.

Anonymous Josh October 09, 2013 5:17 PM  

If you wish for that here you are at the very least crazy, if not downright evil.

Saying something could happen is not wanting it to happen.

I don't want the titans to get ass raped by the Seahawks, but they probably will

Anonymous Porky October 09, 2013 5:21 PM  

If a crash leads to a 4th generation war on US soil God help us all, literally.

It won't.

I've got thousands of black widows on my property. I don't go around killing them all.

I just keep them under control.

Blogger rycamor October 09, 2013 5:25 PM  

Porky October 09, 2013 4:12 PM

Those who have nothing to lose by leaving the system and nothing but permanent slavery if they stick to it will make their decision.

There won't be any "off the grid" to speak of. The USG holds allodial title to every square inch of land. This won't be like those "dang revenuers" knocking on cabin doors in 1935 appalachia. Todays IRS and DHS are heavily armed and being prepared for this moment.


Oh please. As others have pointed out, they've barely got a lid on things as it is.

And I'm not really talking about actual off-the-grid living anyway, just pointing out that this is a major interest. The reality will involve many shades of gray. There will be lots of people with 300K debts who realize their best bet is to work a low-paying part-time job just to stay on the books, but who survive through a complicated scheme of barter, growing and trading their own food, cash-only contract work, etc...

Anonymous Porky October 09, 2013 5:45 PM  

Oh please. As others have pointed out, they've barely got a lid on things as it is.

Lol! Then don't pay your taxes. See what happens. Maybe they really are just a bunch of keystone cops and won't be able to find you.



Anonymous Porky October 09, 2013 6:21 PM  

I've heard of this woman. She's married to a white knight.

Literally.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Wolf

Anonymous FUBAR Nation Ben October 09, 2013 7:04 PM  

Vietnam was much larger than the current adventures. It lasted over 10 years and at its height there were 500,000 troops in Vietnam. I'm not sure about Vietnam versus Korea. How many troops were in Korea at its height? I know that 50,000 troops were killed though.

Blogger Nate October 09, 2013 7:07 PM  

"It won't.

I've got thousands of black widows on my property. I don't go around killing them all.

I just keep them under control."

God you're a moron. You have the financial resources to keep black widows in check. What happens when you don't?

Even you are predicting financial collapse.

So tell us...

How does a broke government that can't afford to keep its own lights on...much less pay its troops... keep ANYTHING in line?

Blogger James Dixon October 09, 2013 8:16 PM  

> Vietnam was much larger than the current adventures. It lasted over 10 years and at its height there were 500,000 troops in Vietnam.

And there were 160+K in Iraq and 30K+ in Afganistan. Say 200K, just as a rough figure. That's US troops, not total. Not as large as Vietnam at its peak, but not insubstantial. And that doesn't count the troops involved in other operations around that world that we don't hear about.

Blogger rycamor October 09, 2013 8:18 PM  

Porky October 09, 2013 5:45 PM

Oh please. As others have pointed out, they've barely got a lid on things as it is.

Lol! Then don't pay your taxes. See what happens. Maybe they really are just a bunch of keystone cops and won't be able to find you.


You misunderstand completely. It doesn't apply to me. At least, not yet. I've got something to lose. I've got regular paying work, family, and zero debt. If I were a single, 23-year-old graduate with no property who woke up and realized he was duped into going six figures into debt and was never going to be able to get my head above water, even with a "decent" job, I would most certainly be planning to drop out.

Blogger James Dixon October 09, 2013 8:21 PM  

> If you wish for that here you are at the very least crazy, if not downright evil.

What we wish for, JartStar, is to have our republic back. That's not what we're going to get any time soon. The rest is merely a choice amongst bad options.

> Then don't pay your taxes. See what happens.

How much taxes are young adults who can't even repay to student loans going to owe, Porky. As for me, while our marginal rate is substantial it's a drop in the bucket for the federal government. They'd probably never notice if I dropped out of the system.

Anonymous Porky October 09, 2013 9:23 PM  

How does a broke government that can't afford to keep its own lights on...much less pay its troops... keep ANYTHING in line?

How much does it cost to run a FEMA camp? Good Lord, Drunky, are you expecting them to keep funding Medicare, Obamacare, SS, and giving away cell phones?

The govt will circle the wagons around the seat of power, which is anything to do with military industrial complex. It'll be North Korea with Starbucks.

Blogger James Dixon October 09, 2013 9:37 PM  

> The govt will circle the wagons around the seat of power, which is anything to do with military industrial complex.

Which would give them control of how much of the country? And how much of the farmland?

Anonymous Porky October 09, 2013 9:51 PM  

Which would give them control of how much of the country? And how much of the farmland?

I dunno... how much does N. Korea control?

Blogger rycamor October 09, 2013 10:45 PM  

I dunno... how much does N. Korea control?

About the area of Massachusetts, New Jersey, Delaware, and Connecticut. I'm perfectly happy with the Feds having all that and ruling it with an iron fist.

Blogger thimscool October 10, 2013 3:51 AM  

North Korea with Starbucks?

And also an armed populace with cultural inclination towards freedom or rebellion. And an enormous land mass that isn't in the immediate neighborhood of two major communist powers.

Try to come up for air, Porky, or you're liable to choke to death on that tiny police state hotdog you relish.

Blogger James Dixon October 10, 2013 6:24 AM  

> how much does N. Korea control?

How much food does N. Korea produce? They can't feed their own population. You think our government could do any better?

Anonymous Stilicho October 10, 2013 6:40 AM  

Think about that scale for a little while. Consider how many times larger that is than the Gross World Product... I mean to such an extent that such a thing can be calculated.

Worldwide GDP is estimated around $70 trillion. Worldwide derivative exposure is estimated north of $700 trillion.

North Korea with Starbucks?

You have to remember that those who spout the "resistance is futile" meme believe that everyone, everywhere in the world outside the U.S. is special and capable of successfully resisting the U.S. government (in various ways: Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam, North Korea, China, Russia, Venezuela, Cuba, Al Qaeda, Taliban, PLO, Hezballah, etc.). Their ideological blinders force them to believe that only Americans are incapable of such resistance. That and their knowledge that they themselves are incapable of such resistance. Projection is a harsh bitch sometimes.

Anonymous Stilicho October 10, 2013 6:42 AM  

You think our government could do any better?

You mean the government that produces no food, but actually pays some farmers to NOT produce food? Oh yeah, they are so much smarter than the Norks.

Anonymous Stilicho October 10, 2013 6:59 AM  

Josh, Casey seemed to be referring to the Fed losing money through an increase in the interest it pays on excess reserves. That is not a market rate. It is set by the Fed (.25%) and is usually zero (.25% is an historic high). Moreover, even if something convinced the Fed that it needed to raise that rate, it only forgives the interest due on its Treasuries to the extent it has a profit for a given year, so there is a substantial cushion for it there. Finally, the Fed funds rate (which Casey uses as his benchline historic rate of 6.5%) is a rate at which the Fed LOANS money, not at which it borrows (or at which it pays interest on reserves).

Casey's only valid point was that the Fed may try to do something if banks start creating new loans based on those excess reserves and the credit cycle and velocity of money pick up. One, that is exactly what the Fed has been trying to accomplish (along with shoring up the banks' balance sheets), so it would have to be pretty extreme before the Fed would act. Two, the Fed's actions would consist of increasing the rates on loans it makes and scaling back its purchases as it has done in the past.

Anonymous Porky October 10, 2013 10:50 AM  

Their ideological blinders force them to believe that only Americans are incapable of such resistance. That and their knowledge that they themselves are incapable of such resistance. Projection is a harsh bitch sometimes.

It's simple to test your theory, Stilicho. The most basic form of resistance. Just refuse to pay your taxes and see what happens.

If in fact you are incapable of such resistance I'm sure you can dig up some data on others who have tried.


Blogger thimscool October 10, 2013 11:32 AM  

What a maroon.

Blogger James Dixon October 10, 2013 3:35 PM  

> I'm sure you can dig up some data on others who have tried.

Lots of people seem to have gotten away with it for 10 years or more. If even a quarter of the people refuse, what makes you think the government will have 10 years?

Blogger James Dixon October 10, 2013 3:38 PM  

But I don't need to refuse to pay my taxes, Porky. All I need to do is not work and not owe any, while signing up for every welfare program to which I'm entitled.. And that I can do.

By choosing to live in a rural area with a much lower pay scale than a city, I already do deny the government tax revenues they would otherwise get.

Blogger rycamor October 10, 2013 5:04 PM  

Bingo. There are many levels to tax revolt.

But to Porky's last rejoinder: it's not even going to be a choice for a lot of people. I can guarantee you right now that there are hundreds of thousands of small businessmen around the country who would simply go bankrupt if they did everything legit. So, most of them fudge things, cook the books a little, etc... as best they can, and many others simply pay what they can and let the chips fall where they may. And I'm betting there's an increasing number who just give up on taxes completely and are waiting to see when the hammer falls. Because they have given up trying to do things by the book. Let a good percentage of this country follow suit, by simple necessity, and what exactly is the IRS going to do about it?

Anonymous civilServant October 10, 2013 5:22 PM  

Which is totally unrelated to any kind claims about the mythical objective value of the dollar.

Nate. I agree. It has no objective value. But you then turn around and write as if it has objective rules. It has none. If it has no objective value then it has no objective rules. The rules can and will be changed where and when as necessary to achieve the dollar's purpose.

Anonymous Porky October 10, 2013 5:51 PM  

All I need to do is not work and not owe any, while signing up for every welfare program to which I'm entitled.. And that I can do.

That's not a revolt. That's exactly what you are expected to do.

But there will come a day when the spigot is turned off. Then you will learn to love Big Brother.

Blogger James Dixon October 10, 2013 9:41 PM  

> Then you will learn to love Big Brother.

I'll be dead before then Porky.

Blogger James Dixon October 10, 2013 9:45 PM  

> That's not a revolt. That's exactly what you are expected to do.

No they don't. They expect me to keep working and paying taxes like a good little wage slave. That's what middle class white folks do, don't you know.

But you said, don't pay your taxes, and that what I'd be doing, not paying taxes. You didn't specify any methods to be followed.

Blogger rycamor October 10, 2013 11:11 PM  

The whole American working world is in various stages of revolt, and has been for decades. The only question is how much worse it will get and how fast it will get there.

Among the self-employed is where you see it the most, and that is just because they have no choice. I know a guy who installs those new high-tech skylights in people's houses. He can generally install one in half a day. If he did things by the book, he would have to pull a permit on each house, costing him an extra $50/install, plus *another* half day just chasing paperwork. And all so that some guy can come to the house and read the paperwork. The inspectors don't even pretend to look at the work he's doing. So just with that one added step, his cost of doing business almost doubles. Then, he's got a 900-page book by OSHA that he is supposed to follow in detail, then on top of that he's got a ridiculous burden in paperwork, insurance and bookkeeping if he decides to hire a couple young guy to help him. It just doesn't happen.

Back in the 90s I worked with a major yacht refinishing firm in Ft. Lauderdale. We did the biggest and the best, including quite a few Fortune 500 names. Yet the owner could simply not afford to hire people as regular employees. Every single worker was a "contractor", even though he dictated the hours, provided the equipment, etc... We were paying guys somewhere between $15-50/hr depending on their skills, yet if he did the legit thing, his costs would have more than quadrupled, due to longshoreman's insurance, taxes, SS, OSHA rules, bookkeeping, etc... He would have been out of business in a month if he did things that way. And I'm sure a good percentage of his employees never reported their incomes.

Every year the laws and regulations get more draconian, and every year more businessmen drop out, in one way or another.

So the black market already exists in many forms. Call it the grey market but it is getting darker all the time.

Anonymous Porky October 11, 2013 12:45 AM  

No they don't. They expect me to keep working and paying taxes like a good little wage slave. That's what middle class white folks do, don't you know.

They don't want a middle class. They want serfs. They'll be content to support you for a time if you just want to suckle off the government teat. But it won't last forever. It can't.


But you said, don't pay your taxes, and that what I'd be doing, not paying taxes. You didn't specify any methods to be followed.

You still owe property tax. But if you have no property, no job, and no ambition you are exactly what they are looking for. Right now they need brainless sponges to suck the wealth out of the citizenry and to extend the predomination of the Glorious State.

But eventually you will work. You will work for them.

Anonymous Porky October 11, 2013 1:01 AM  

So the black market already exists in many forms. Call it the grey market but it is getting darker all the time.

Nobody cares. Seriously. Nobody cares.

All the laws and regs are for one purpose: so that if you get out of line they have something to nail you on. It's the equivalent of having compromising photos on someone.

Your buddy can skirt the regulations for the rest of his life probably with no worries. Until he pisses off somebody in power. Then he will go down fast.

That's really all it is. Nobody in government gives a shit about the installation of a stupid skylight on some peasants house or whether you used environmentally friendly glue on a boat. In my state there is a state regulation on the length of candle wicks. Do you really think some politician was seriously concerned about the very troubling length of candle wicks?

They want to have power over you. Simple.


Blogger James Dixon October 11, 2013 5:46 AM  

> But eventually you will work. You will work for them.

Like I said, Porky. I'll be dead before then.

Anonymous Porky October 11, 2013 1:37 PM  

I'll be dead before then.

Sounds like a plan.

Post a Comment

Rules of the blog

<< Home

Newer Posts Older Posts