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Friday, July 11, 2014

Great Depression 2.0

Only instead of the Smoot-Hawley tariff, we have the geniuses who permitted the NSA to spy on allied countries:
Germany Instructs Its Companies To Limit Cooperation, Procurement Orders With The US

Update: it just got worse. Moments ago Bloomberg followed up with the second, and expected, part of this story, namely that just like China cut off major US corporations from big procurement contracts leading to a collapse in CSCO and IBM Asian revenues, it is now Germany's turn. Per Bloomberg, the German Interior Ministry reviewing rules for awarding govt contracts for computer, communications equipment and services as political rift w/ U.S. widens, people familiar with matter told Bloomberg News’ Cornelius Rahn, Amy Thomson.
  • Ministry will probably issue new purchasing guidelines in coming weeks to replace “no-spy-order” dated April 30
  • Details being worked out, may require suppliers of components of bidder’s goods or services to guarantee they don’t hand over confidential data
  • IBM, CSCO, MSFT may be affected by any tightening of procurement procedures: Forrester Research analyst Andrew Rose
It could be for show, but I tend to doubt it. German companies have to be slavering at the notion of having an excellent excuse - nay, reason - to bar their American competitors from government contracts.

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47 Comments:

Blogger Krul July 11, 2014 3:23 PM  

What should the US gov do? Now that the cat's out of the bag, is there any way to restore confidence?

Obviously they won't stop spying, and even if they did no one would believe it.

Blogger Jonathan Bennett July 11, 2014 3:29 PM  

This thing eats comments...

So if Microsoft and Apple are off the table, does this mean that Linux will be the new official OS of Germany?

Can't use Suse or Red Hat, though, still American owned. Wouldn't be surprised to see a German district based off CentOS or Debian in the next few years, if they are actually serious about getting away from US IT solutions.

Anonymous corvinus July 11, 2014 3:32 PM  

What should the US gov do? Now that the cat's out of the bag, is there any way to restore confidence?

Obviously they won't stop spying, and even if they did no one would believe it.


The only thing that will "restore confidence" is for our bloated, corrupt Fedgov to completely implode and for the USA to start completely from scratch.

Anonymous Will Best July 11, 2014 3:39 PM  

A good US civil war will restore confidence. People will figure the NSA will be too busy internally to bother with anybody else.

You might see something like IBM and other enterprise service corporations reincorporate outside the US in order to placate customers. Quite frankly in some areas there isn't a lot of competition and it could take years for some to develop.

Anonymous a_peraspera July 11, 2014 3:43 PM  

No one gives a damn about the spying, that's just the convenient excuse. The US has been presenting itself as the global hegemon and peacekeeper for decades now. It's caused a lot of resentment.

Many regional grudges and power grabs have long been simmering below the surface - never acted upon, for fear of what the US might do.

Obama has made it pretty clear that he will never go to war for any reason, no matter what anyone does - up to and including invading a US embassy and murdering the ambassador. He can't even stop an invasion consisting of 12-year-old kids.

So, this has a few ramifications for our allies and enemies. Allies of the US now see that they are totally on their own. Obama will never leap to their defense no matter what happens to them. Putin could grab Poland tomorrow as he did the Ukraine, and Obama would do nothing.

Basically every treaty, agreement or alliance any nation has ever signed with the US is now considered null and void because the world has lost faith in Obama. Because of this, Germany and our other allies see no reason to uphold their agreements with us either.

Our enemies can see which way the wind is blowing too. That's why China is placing oil drilling platforms in Vietnamese waters and getting ready to seize the Senkaku islands. I don't even want to think about what the muslims are planning. Some jihadis are probably among the Children's Crusaders coming up through Mexico.

The old stable order is collapsing - the world will soon revert to a Hobbesian war of all against all. But hey folks were getting too soft anyway. Probably for the best in the long run.

Blogger Unknown July 11, 2014 3:48 PM  

I wonder if we see the seizure of tech-sector IP. Google, etc...

Blogger Robert What? July 11, 2014 3:52 PM  

A tangentially related thought: In retrospect it was probably a bad idea for Reagan to force the Cold War to a head. Back then all the intelligence agencies and related bureaucracies were focused on the "Evil Empire" and pretty much left most Americans alone. When the Cold War ended what *should* have happened was for many agencies to disband or at least pare down. But of course that rarely ever happens. So now that the government doesn't have the Red Menace to focus its attention, the Eye of Sauron is focused on the American people, who are the new "enemies of the state". I'm hoping for a renewal of the Cold War to give the psychos something besides us to fixate on again.

Blogger lubertdas July 11, 2014 4:04 PM  

Ooh! This will give Obama somebody to scapegoat!

Did Obama give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? NO!

Blogger Quadko July 11, 2014 4:06 PM  

RobertW: But by that argument, maybe we shouldn't have ended WWII. Just because peace was handled poorly doesn't make war a better situation.

I'm reading The Decline and Fall of IBM, which says IBM already cut its own throat. These closing markets were the ones they were counting on for continued life-support after destroying their US production and service capacities.

Anonymous Tallen July 11, 2014 4:17 PM  

Essentially the NSA's actions have damaged national security.

Anonymous Alte July 11, 2014 4:45 PM  

Well, that took long enough.

Anonymous Orville July 11, 2014 4:45 PM  

Go long Siemens. It appears to me that Vlad and Angela are now BFFs.

Anonymous Alte July 11, 2014 4:46 PM  

Well, that took long enough.

The new rumor is that the CIA is behind ISIS.

Anonymous Alexander July 11, 2014 4:53 PM  

Well... yeah, probably.

Afterall, it was only a few months back that ISIS were the good guys, and we were supposed to be supporting them against the evil Russia/Assad duo.

And given Obama's record, if the answer is "does this benefit the march of the jihadi?", then odds are that we're supporting it.

Anonymous ENthePeasant July 11, 2014 4:58 PM  

I've tried to tell everyone how serious the Germans have become about getting us out of their lives but the general feeling amongst Americans (even at VD's place) is that we own them and they are just doing it for show. One thing that's clear to me after talking with some old German acquaintances (does one ever have German "friends"?) is the belief the US, and by this they mean Obama, is going some place and they are excluded from knowing where or the purpose of our new journey. Americans on the right are constantly saying Obama's not to bright and doesn't know what he's doing. The German Government doesn't seem him as brilliant but not so stupid as to not understand the consequences of his actions. And BTW, The Germans have handled Vlad Putin just fine with absolutely no help from the US. That was also a turning point.

Anonymous Anonymous July 11, 2014 5:07 PM  

@Krul
What should the US gov do? Now that the cat's out of the bag, is there any way to restore confidence?

I propose a diplomatic gesture of good faith. How about we send them a "reset" button?

Anonymous Don July 11, 2014 5:17 PM  

So what? our government has their gold. They've had reason to put whatever sanctions they want on for months. If that is not a legitimate cause for war much less economic sanctions there isn't one.

Anonymous ENthePeasant July 11, 2014 5:21 PM  

"our government has their gold."

Are you sure? The Germans needed time from what I've been led to understand. They are feeling confident.

Blogger Robert What? July 11, 2014 5:34 PM  

Quadko: "But by that argument, maybe we shouldn't have ended WWII."

Only thing is, the Cold War was largely a bloodless war. It allowed the little boys to play with their toys and no one really got hurt. It diverted their attention to the Ruskies instead of us.

Anonymous bob k. mando July 11, 2014 5:37 PM  

Don July 11, 2014 5:17 PM
So what? our government has their gold.



oh, i REALLY don't think you want to go there.

if the US tries the "harrr, we nationalize the assets you entrusted to us for safekeeping" route, a LOT of other nations will immediately nationalize all US corp holdings in THEIR countries.

gold is nice and all but when all is said and done ... it doesn't actually produce anything.

Anonymous FUBAR Nation Ben July 11, 2014 5:38 PM  

Why are you concerned about the economic impact? You readily point out in your writings that Smoot-Hawley had a small impact on the economy back in the 30's.

What you should be concerned about is much higher dollar as war and civil unrest spreads.

Deflation is here and is only go to get worse as the geniuses in power seek to tax and seize everything they can from businesses.

Anonymous FUBAR Nation Ben July 11, 2014 5:40 PM  

Your right Bob. Gold is nice but it isn't what's important. The wealth of a nation is its people. Japan has almost no resources but is the 3rd largest economy. Other examples are Hong Kong, South Korea, Germany after WWII and Israel.

Anonymous Don July 11, 2014 5:48 PM  

You're missing my point about the gold. Germany has had a casus belli since we've reneged on the gold. They have an actual cause for war not just a trade war and have they done anything? No, they've said, 'sure keep our gold forget what we said we believe our gold is fine where it is'. At the rate we are repatriating their gold we'll get it back to them sometime after the German kindergartners are eligible for whatever they call social security.

Yeah, I'm sure about the gold. We do not have what we say we have or we are not willing to give it back. Take your pick either way we've already gave them the big green weenie and they've done zip.

Anonymous GFC July 11, 2014 6:05 PM  

The Germans know damn well the gold is gone, long ago spirited off to third parties, probably banking oligarchs, and will never be seen again. USG can't hold hostage what it no longer possesses or at least can't come up with under any circumstances. It's useless as a blackmailing tool. The Germans will simply wait for the opportunity to pay USG back which at this point really just needs to be quietly walking away while America implodes.

Anonymous Don July 11, 2014 6:14 PM  

We're not blackmailing them over the gold. We simply either don't have it or won't give it back. My guess it is long gone as well. The next administration should say, "Oh, my God! Somebody stole our gold!" then proceed to hang whomever took it. Imagine the good will they would earn from the American people and the world if the next president hung some bankers. It would be awesome to see even if it wasn't the guilty parties at least it would encourage the others.

Anonymous bob k. mando July 11, 2014 7:01 PM  

GFC July 11, 2014 6:05 PM
The Germans will simply wait for the opportunity to pay USG back which at this point



of which, part of the payback is ... no longer allowing German .gov procurement to be done through American companies.



Don July 11, 2014 5:48 PM
Germany has had a casus belli since we've reneged on the gold...
Take your pick either way we've already gave them the big green weenie and they've done zip.



it's hilarious that you assert that they've done 'zip' in a thread that is ABOUT THEM DOING SOMETHING.

can they declare war on us? are you fucking retarded? what good would that do?

Germany doesn't have ballistic missiles, a significant navy or any other way to project .mil power to our shores.

worse, WE have entire divisions stationed on their territory.

yeah, Germany is going to 'declare war on the US'.

right.

no, Germany will engage in asymmetric warfare ( economic, intelligence, manufacturing, etc ) against us because it's the only effectual thing they CAN do.

it's conceivable that a president with some integrity could mollify Germany somewhat and mitigate some of the reparations that Germany will want to extract.

however, Obama is NOT that president.

Anonymous Don July 11, 2014 7:28 PM  

bob bob bob, good to see you maintain your kind words. Fucking retarded because I said they had a reason to go to war. Did I anywhere say they would, could, or should declare war? Did you not read what I wrote? To summarize I wrote they have had plenty of reasons to retaliate for a long time now (no need to make it more complicated). So far they have not retaliated, they are talking about retaliating now.

We'll see if they'll stick to that or if they'll fold like they did with their gold. Lighten up Francis.

Anonymous automatthew July 11, 2014 7:34 PM  

OT: falsely accused of rape, but "still a feminist".

Anonymous bob k. mando July 11, 2014 7:59 PM  

Don July 11, 2014 7:28 PM
Did I anywhere say they would, could, or should declare war?


you don't seem to understand the meaning of the phrase 'casus belli'.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casus_belli


further, you stated that they HAD casus belli but that they had not done anything.

EVEN IF this public statement had NOT been made, you do NOT know that they have 'not been doing anything'.


"They have an actual cause for war not just a trade war and have they done anything? No, they've said, 'sure keep our gold forget what we said we believe our gold is fine where it is'."

Anonymous Anonymous July 11, 2014 8:33 PM  

OT: How do we get inside the RulingClass/Obama's OODA loop? I want to fuck with these guys. thx.

Anonymous Anonymous July 11, 2014 9:01 PM  

Sorry, should read: "OT: How do I get inside the RulingClass/Obama's OODA loop? I want to fuck with these guys. thx."


Anonymous Athor Pel July 11, 2014 9:02 PM  

As has been said here before, every nation spies on every other nation, all the time, and every spy knows about it but tries not to let anybody outside the intelligence community learn about it.

That somebody got caught is embarrassing and annoying for both parties, the spy and the spied on.

It's embarrassing for the spy because he got caught with his hand in the cookie jar. It might even reveal his methods, which is worse since it costs time and money to come up with a new method.

It's embarrassing for the spied on because now they have to admit that they can be spied on and do something concrete to stop the immediate leak. They also must go through the motions of doing something about the prevention of any future intelligence leaks. Lastly they must make disapproving noises at the spying nation if they can't jail or shoot some individual guilty person.

From the spy's point of view the public face of their community is a kind of theater, a theater of the absurd.

So I find these kinds of public announcements as intrinsic parts of the performance. Performance because if the intelligence gathering apparatus of a nation is not completely domestically sourced then they are asking to be penetrated or blinded.

Anonymous HalibetLector July 11, 2014 9:53 PM  

@automatthew ahh, the cards against humanity guy. Interesting that this happened so close to him burning a card of his to gain points with the PC police.

Blogger James Dixon July 11, 2014 10:14 PM  

Somewhat on topic for this thread, the Guardian has another article on the NSA spying which reiterates that they're lying about the amount and types of data they record: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/11/the-ultimate-goal-of-the-nsa-is-total-population-control

Anonymous Anonymous July 11, 2014 10:42 PM  

@James Dixon.

Unfortunately, it is now axiomatic that FedGov is lying. Time to correct that problem.

Anonymous zen0 July 11, 2014 11:17 PM  

Oceania has always been under Martial Law.

As a deputized member of the War Party, you have no reason to complain about being scrutinized.

There, on you driver's license........Why is your name all in capitals?
So it can be read more easily? Yes, of course. That is why. Easier to read.


Capitalization:

There are five different levels of capitalization used in names of "persons"

human-being: john doe

natural-person: John Doe

quasi natural/artificial-person: John DOE

corporation/artificial-person: JOHN DOE

Nom de Guerre: DOE, JOHN


Here is a summary of the rights and freedoms of the above "persons":

The human-being has all the unalienable rights and freedoms as provided by God.

The natural-person has the rights and freedoms as provided by man with the Magna Charta and Canadian Bill of Rights.

The quasi natural/artificial-person has lost some rights, but not all rights. At this time it is not evident how to quantify which rights have been lost.

The corporation/artificial-person has limited rights and freedoms as provided by the creator of the Corporation.

The Nom de Guerre (name of war) has no rights and freedoms and is a complete slave to the Admiral.


It doesn't hurt to review the fundamentals once in a while.

Anonymous Don July 11, 2014 11:23 PM  

You're right bob. I don't know if they have been doing anything. I do know that Germany isn't going substantially change its relationship with the US over this.

My point was they have had plenty of provocation. Not much has come of it so far but talk. They did not need NSA spying on them to want to sanction us they already had a pretty good reason to be peeved. They already knew we were spying on them. That is a given.

Anonymous zen0 July 11, 2014 11:57 PM  

They already knew we were spying on them. That is a given.

Surely it is the unraveling of the Empire. Baby steps, just like the progressive march through the institutions, the international community moves amoeba like in reaction to stimulus.

What I want to know is, why would the US try to enhance the value of the dollar in order to protect its reserve status. Or would it just be a move to revalue under a new sytem?

Anonymous The other skeptic July 12, 2014 12:07 AM  

Don't worry. They can travel to Mexico and then cross the border and travel as they please and get revenge.

Blogger Tommy Hass July 12, 2014 1:50 AM  

"Putin could grab Poland tomorrow as he did the Ukraine, and Obama would do nothing."

Neocons are the absolute bottom of the barrel.

Anonymous map July 12, 2014 2:08 AM  

Well, how much does Germany depend on US export markets, directly and indirectly? That will limit its options.

OT, it's just amazing how much damage Snowden has done. What I find very interesting is that none of his data dumps include any information about China or Russia. Is it possible that the NSA has not penetrated Russian and Chinese networks at all?

Anonymous A.B. Prosper July 12, 2014 2:09 AM  

Smoot Hawley didn't cause the depression or even cause much effect on it. Neither will the spying.

That said as things get tighter and the US gets weaker, lots of countries will take advantage of one pretence or another to engage in economic nationalism and/or to shank the US economically.

Its the natural course of things, complex trade arrangements always implode same as complex multi-cultural societies do since ins me respects they are two sides of the same coin

Anonymous Alte July 12, 2014 7:59 AM  

"WE have entire divisions stationed on their territory."

I think a lot of Americans aren't really aware of this; that we are still occupied territory. A lot German behavior, at public and at private level, reflects that.

That's why this is such a shocking move.

Anonymous Alte July 12, 2014 8:05 AM  

"I do know that Germany isn't going substantially change its relationship with the US over this."

Maybe they're going to move away from the dollar, like everyone else is already doing.

Anonymous Stilicho July 12, 2014 9:23 AM  

Germany has known about and welcomed the spying to some degree for a long time. First because they were notoriously infiltrated by the Stasi during the Cold War. After reunification, the Stasi and Russian networks did not go away, merely underground so the need was still there, if less critical. What has happened is that spying on senior officials who foolishly assumed they were exempt has become public, irritating and embarrassing those officials.

Anonymous The other skeptic July 13, 2014 10:47 AM  

Closer to home, look at all those Hispanic-sounding names involved with corruption at CalPERS!

Anonymous The other skeptic July 13, 2014 12:37 PM  

Is it disruption if you are making the same people rich?

Just another way for certain people to exploit the hard-working nature of white Europeans?

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