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Saturday, August 02, 2014

Objectives are the key to war

And when one looks at its objectives, it is apparent that Israel is losing the Gaza Tunnel War, both in 4GW and tactical terms:
As frustration grows in Israel over the military’s limited success so far in trying to neutralize Hamas, the militant Islamic group that governs Gaza, some military experts say it is increasingly evident that the Israel Defense Forces have been operating from an old playbook and are not fully prepared for a more sophisticated, battle-ready adversary. The issue is not specifically the tunnels — which Israel knew about — but the way Hamas fighters trained to use them to create what experts in Israel are calling a “360-degree front.”

“Hamas has changed its doctrine and is using the tunnels as a main method of operation,” said Israel Ziv, a retired general who headed the military’s Gaza division and its operations directorate. “This is something we learned amid the fighting.”

In the Gaza war that began in late 2008, 10 Israeli soldiers were killed, four of them from friendly fire. This time, 63 soldiers have been killed, mostly in combat, and one is now a prisoner. “The military has been playing it by ear,” said Amos Harel, a military affairs analyst for the newspaper Haaretz, who added that despite the Israeli military’s knowledge of the tunnels, its planners did not draft a new doctrine for prosecuting a land invasion. “But it is pretty good at doing that, and has done it many times.”

In this latest asymmetrical war with Hamas, the third in five years, Israel thought it was prepared. It had built up an integrated communications systems able to transfer intelligence in real time to air and ground forces, an advancement that military officials called a “force multiplier.”

Precision-guided missiles have destroyed up to a third of Hamas’s rocket stocks, according to Israeli officials, as well as hundreds of houses or apartments that the military described as militant command-and-control centers and many other weapons production sites and stores. In 24 days of intense bombing, 4,300 targets have been hit....

What Israel was apparently less ready for was Hamas fighters who are willing to engage and are trained to use tunnels, a tool of war whose roots go back to antiquity. During Israel’s last ground incursion in the winter of 2008-9, Hamas fighters largely avoided clashes, melting into the crowded urban landscape. This time, they were prepared for combat.
War is not sport. Body counts are not a relevant means of keeping score; the fact that the IDF has killed more Hamas fighters than Hamas has killed IDF soldiers is entirely expected. That is one reason why the war is referred to as "asymmetric". As always, air power is overrated, as the fact that 24 days of intense bombing hasn't prevented Hamas from killing more than six times as many ground troops as in 2008. It seems the lessons of Tarawa and Iwo Jima still have not been learned by the descendants of Giulio Douhet and Billy Mitchell.

War is about using military force to achieve one's objectives. Israel's objectives are:
  • End the rocket attacks
  • Demilitarize Gaza
  • Deterrence
  • Eliminate Hamas’s senior military command and political leadership
  • Prevent Hamas from being able to rearm
Debka notes: "That nine of the 10 Israeli servicemen who died in the counter-terror operation against Hamas Monday, July 28, were killed on Israeli soil was a wake-up call for Israel’s war leaders. It meant that Hamas had used the 22 days of combat to carry the contest from its own home ground into Israel by grabbing the tactical advantage of surprise."

After a month of war and considerable collateral damage among the civilian population of Gaza, it does not appear that Israel will be able to meet any of its objectives in this war. This is why it is so vital for Israel to learn to adopt 4GW tactics in asymmetric conflicts like these, as another 2GW victory and 4GW loss will only encourage Hamas and Israel's other enemies. In another post, I will address what tactics I think should be adopted in preference to this 2GW pound-and-ground.

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81 Comments:

Anonymous zen0 August 02, 2014 6:41 AM  

From what I have read, I gather that the Military leadership is frustrated that the political level will not let them go after the control center in Gaza where the high level commanders operate.

On a humorous note, a female UN official criticized Israel for not sharing its Iron Dome system with the Gazans. After all, sharing is good.

Anonymous Sigyn August 02, 2014 6:45 AM  

War is about using military force to achieve one's objectives.

Well, duh. ANY process is going to be a time- and energy-sink if you don't have clear objectives.

Anonymous Anonymous August 02, 2014 6:46 AM  

Jeremiah Says: I was a CAv trooper in Iraq in 2004-2005 with the 7th cavalry and we had LENGHTY discussions about this self same subject (integrated armor and infantry forces in an urban environment vs light infantry or guerillas) and I spent 6 months on Highway 8 picking fights with the Mahdi army. Drones were still in their infancy, and our Intel and translation services were pathetic, but we had a MASSIVE firepower advantage that we couldn't really utilize very well. If you want my opinion, (I'm no 4GW expert, but I've read "tactics of the Crescent moon" and "The last Hundred Yards" a few times. It seems that Hamas is using the "blooming Lotus" maneuver that the Japanese and Vietnamese used to use in WWII and Vietnam respectively. If this is the case, they will constantly try to remove the very concept of "front lines" and attack at a place of their own choosing. If so, the Israeli army must react (as vox pointed out) as the US Forces did AFTER learning the lessons of Iwo Jima, that is be prepared for a long slow slog, blast every tunnel, frag every spider h,ole, us flamethrowers and fuel air explosives, bulldoze every building that you can't secure, and most importantly be prepared for a long, dirty, unfair fight. We learned from Iwo Jima and, Palau, was it? That you don't want to go down after them, you just bury them alive and move on. Of course, the political part of 4GW is a done deal, if they start pushing the whole population into Egypt, they can end the problem forever in the long term, but they give up any negotiating power they might have over any Hamas fighters they capture in the short term. To get them to spill on the locations and construction of their tunnel systems, you would have to promise certain things, including eventual freedom of better conditions for their families, To clear Gaza once and for all would mean total resistance, with which Hamas would be quite happy to oblige them. That Israeli forces were NOT prepared for a 360 degree from AFTER hearing about the tunnels is inexcusable... VOx, perhaps those soldiers killed and kidnapped are largely from reserve units or perhaps the vauted Israeli female commandos we saw pictures of over the last few years? That may be why it has been kept hush hush as to their identities but seems to have had such an impact on their military?

Anonymous VD August 02, 2014 6:46 AM  

I gather that the Military leadership is frustrated that the political level will not let them go after the control center in Gaza where the high level commanders operate.

Which is why it is bizarre that people refuse to accept that "the political level" is an important aspect of war. In reading The World at War, one of the most striking things is the way in which "the political level" repeatedly outweighed military concerns in Germany, Britain, Japan, the Soviet Union, and the USA.

This isn't a new post-Vietnam concept, and yet military strategists repeatedly attempt to look at the strategic and tactical levels without paying any attention to that level.

Anonymous Sigyn August 02, 2014 6:48 AM  

On a humorous note, a female UN official criticized Israel for not sharing its Iron Dome system with the Gazans. After all, sharing is good.

How is that different from anything else the UN has proposed about what Israel "should" be doing?

Anonymous Sigyn August 02, 2014 6:53 AM  

In retrospect, I should probably note that the "duh" was not directed at Vox. It was more directed at the Israelis. Kind of a general "duh".

I mean, it's not news to anyone who's done a job where efficiency is important. Or productivity.

I mean...

I mean I need more coffee because I'm apparently being accidentally offensive. Again.

Anonymous zen0 August 02, 2014 7:00 AM  

I mean I need more coffee because I'm apparently being accidentally offensive. Again.

Too terse.

Anonymous Sigyn August 02, 2014 7:12 AM  

Too terse.

Word.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan August 02, 2014 7:22 AM  

Rubble is better fighting material. Hamas being muslim whackos are blind to the science of ballistics, instead preferring to chant and wish their lives away. If they had several hundred snipers trained with heavy sniper rifles the Israelis would pay like no tomorrow.

Blogger Shocker August 02, 2014 7:33 AM  

Honestly, the fact that the IDF is having so much goddamn trouble, to the extent that they have to keep relying on bombing the crap out of their opponents instead is a major testament towards how incompetent the IDF actually is.

I guarantee you that Iran is taking notes as we speak, and thinking up all the possible ways that they could screw over the IDF in an actual conflict.

Blogger Shocker August 02, 2014 7:35 AM  

Oh, and by the way, new reader here. Great blog. The fact that the mere mention of it gets lefties in tears is an added bonus.

Anonymous Action Bronson August 02, 2014 7:35 AM  

The sand nigs know what they're doing. They know that sacrificing hundreds, if not thousands of their own will cause the "international community" to step in and cease hostilities so they can then declare victory till the next skirmish.
They have a self hating media battling on their behalf, along with a majority of Western politicians.
They dont need to adhere to some complex military doctrine to defeat Israel.
If they understood, they'd know this shit will go on for another 1000 or so years.
So let it be written..

Blogger stats August 02, 2014 7:37 AM  

Coal, oil, natural gas comes into Israel by boat. Hamas needs sink a couple of cargo ships in the Mediterranean and they could strangle Israel to death. Genocide: what's good for the goose is good for the gander.

Anonymous karsten August 02, 2014 7:39 AM  

As ever, Dr. Kevin MacDonald provides the most clear-sighted take on the current conflict:

http://www.theoccidentalobserver.net/2014/08/stefan-molyneaux-on-israel-and-the-nature-of-judaism/

Blogger Dark Herald August 02, 2014 7:42 AM  

Massive firepower only works if the enemy gives you someplace to use it. The classic example is the Tet Offensive ask any liberal and they will be only too happy to tell you it was great success. It was in fact a catastrophic disaster for the Viet-Minh. Until that point the metrics favored them.

I am rather surprised by the IDFs poor performance during this war. Admittedly the political angle is beyond them but it's currently beyond any democratic government at the moment.

The only western government success in 4GW that comes to mind at all, is the U.S. immediately post 9-11. It was largely by accident. AQ had inflicted enough damage on the U.S. that the media (very temporarily) overcame it's anti-western prejudices and dehumanized the enemy. That was a help.

It raises the grizzly question of: should the Israelis have let Hamas carryout its planned terror attack?

Anonymous NorthernHamlet August 02, 2014 7:44 AM  

Anonymous' suggestion at promising family freedom in exchange for intel may have been what I was getting at in yesterday's thread about de-escalation with trade-offs that are materialistic vs moralistic. The political dimension in these sorts of conflicts is important, but so is utilizing the moralistic options available to turn the enemy when necessary.

Being only a reader of modern international conflict info, I liken 4gw to advertising campaigns. It's not about the early 1950s style ads anymore. Anything can convey the message, anything can sell the product. With the Internet, no one is too small to cause a brand problem. Bury their bad posts with a slew of content (Vox, you may actually do this to your trolls this way with how much you post).

Blogger stats August 02, 2014 7:46 AM  

Israel: more lawyers per square mile than any other nation on the planet. With this kind of stock do you really think they can support a decent ground campaign?

Anonymous Action Bronson August 02, 2014 7:53 AM  

"Hamas needs sink a couple of cargo ships in the Mediterranean and they could strangle Israel to death. Genocide: what's good for the goose is good for the gander."

Like they haven't thought on it. Nigga please, The Eye talian navy of 42 could have that gig and still not lose a single ship. First you need a navy, then you can talk about disrupting waterways.

Blogger Glen Filthie August 02, 2014 7:56 AM  

This is not a war, Vox. It is just sparring. Nothing will be decided with this. Oh, the usual suspects will berate Israel and denounce the violence and deny being anti-Semites and accuse others of racism and blah blah blah.

Yawn.

The real war will begin when Israelis start ruthlessly exterminating the Palestinians. That is the only way any peace will ever take hold. If we fought WW2 the same way we are fighting the War On Terror - we'd still be trading cheap shots with Imperial Japan today.
The ball is in the Israelis' court. They can go to war with Islam - and win if they play the nuke card - but it will come at the cost of their collective soul.
And so, they keep playing tit for tat with third world monkeys that will never be fully domesticated until they are fully beaten.
Life goes on.

Anonymous Aremo August 02, 2014 8:09 AM  

So since the world hates them why don't they just fuel air bomb the political nexus and chlorine gas the tunnels. Send your elite troops back through the tunnels and mine and bobby trap the heck out of them after the gas clears. Doing this in a week long period of massive public outcry would seem to be a better move than a slow pounding of the place for weeks. After it concludes people forget and your problem is more or less removed.

Anonymous Action Bronson August 02, 2014 8:17 AM  

Yeah, Life goes on. And yet another generation of stupified voters come to accept the pali Israel conflict as just another bubble gum political issue to be argued over. All by design, of course.
Its to the point where you almost want to se Hamas get nukes. Just so Shit will conclude.

Anonymous VD August 02, 2014 8:20 AM  

This is not a war, Vox. It is just sparring.

You don't know anything about military history if you think this isn't a real war. You are confusing total existential war with war. The latter is far more common than the former.

So since the world hates them why don't they just fuel air bomb the political nexus and chlorine gas the tunnels. Send your elite troops back through the tunnels and mine and bobby trap the heck out of them after the gas clears.

Won't work. They'll miss more than half the political nexus, since the leaders aren't even in Gaza. Gassing the tunnels won't work because they are too extensive and can be reused as soon as the gas dissipates. And sending the elite troops into the tunnels would result in hundreds, if not thousands of IDF casualties.

Israel is not prepared to fight an aggressive existential action and the Arabs are not foolish enough to allow them to fight a defensive one. So, the situation will continue, except Israel's ability to deter Hamas has been weakened by its failure and global anti-semitism has been given another boost.

Anonymous Salt August 02, 2014 8:37 AM  

On a lighter side, "Kill The Enemy".

Anonymous Action Bronson August 02, 2014 8:42 AM  

So is Jeruseleum the modern day version of Constantinople? Destined to fall in the face of another arab onslaught? Or is it more like an Allepo or Damascus of an earlier time?
I hate History.

Anonymous Anonymous August 02, 2014 8:43 AM  

"Israel is not prepared to fight an aggressive existential action and the Arabs are not foolish enough to allow them to fight a defensive one. So, the situation will continue, except Israel's ability to deter Hamas has been weakened by its failure and global anti-semitism has been given another boost." JEREMIAH says: This is the 4GW part. Vox is correct, unless they are prepared to destroy gaza completely, Israel has no good options. Even if they DID level Gaza, theoy would have to either colonize or patrol it, and in either case, for a long while afterwards, Hamas fighters would be able to infiltrate the area and continue to conduct raids and kidnap operations. The grand strategic driver of this whole situation is the Arab leaders sitting around and asking themselves if they can still afford to put up with Israel or not in a world of diminishing resources. For the same reason we don't have open war in the US right now, we don't have total war in a lot of other places... the EBT cards, oil, and cheap products from Asia are still working, flowing etc.... as long as that happens, people have too much to lose by fighting, when they make the calculation that they have more to gain from fighting than from sitting around, then watch out!

Anonymous Samuel Scott August 02, 2014 8:52 AM  

An Israeli writer who I respect offers a slightly-different take: Hamas is allegedly getting badly damaged to the point where it's stating (for the first time) that it did not kidnap a soldier. Hamas is even embarrassing its patrons.

Anonymous Ape Man August 02, 2014 8:54 AM  

Just a nit pick, but I think Israel's goals were only "End the rocket attacks" and "Deterrence". In so far as it appears that they are going for the other things I think it is more geared towards "deterrence" then actually accomplishing them. In other words, I don't think they are targeting Hamas leadership with the idea that they can really eliminate them all, but rather with the idea of making them think twice before they try this again. That said, Israel's repeated limited "police" actions have had effect of steady teaching their enemies how to fight. The Arabs used to be horrible. They still are not good. But they are getting better and they will continue to get better as Israel inadvertently trains them.

Anonymous Samuel Scott August 02, 2014 8:54 AM  

And I just got an SMS news alert from The Jerusalem Post that the IDF is allegedly set to announce that all tunnels have been destroyed.

Anonymous POUND August 02, 2014 8:55 AM  

This type of thing reminds me of the US training excercise from a few years back. The name of the excercise escapes me but Task Force Blue had very high tech state of the art technology and the OPFOR had WW2 technology(motorcyles, basic radios etc.) The commander in charge of the the OPFOR humiliated Blue team and the people in charge of the excercise had to add a scripted victory for Blue.

Anonymous Samuel Scott August 02, 2014 8:57 AM  

Glen Filthie August 02, 2014 7:56 AM

The real war will begin when Israelis start ruthlessly exterminating the Palestinians.


Won't happen, barring the Palestinians doing something inconceivably horrific. The most "extreme" thing that the Israeli government even has a chance of doing is relocating most or all of them to Egypt and Jordan or drawing borders that put most Israeli Arabs in the Palestinian state and most Israeli settlements in Israel.

Anonymous Samuel Scott August 02, 2014 9:00 AM  

stats August 02, 2014 7:46 AM

Israel: more lawyers per square mile than any other nation on the planet. With this kind of stock do you really think they can support a decent ground campaign?


Another example of people thinking that Israelis are a bunch of Woody Allens.

Anonymous Anonymous August 02, 2014 9:08 AM  

On the topic of 'pushing the Gazans into Egypt..."

Egypt doesn't want them and is helping out Israel by prosecuting on their side of the border. Because Hamas is Muslim Brotherhood affiliated, and the military government that stepped in to save Egypt is doing so by stepping on the Muslim Brotherhood.

Jordan doesn't want to take the Gazans either. They're troublemakers and would add power to the high-population faction that's out of power.

Lebanon doesn't want them - it's already a cosmopolitan mishmash with a shifting set of alliances and balances with more than enough problems of its own without having another group come in and upset everything.

Pretty much the only place the Gazans can be pushed to is Syria, into some warzone where nobody has control. They could join the rebels and fight Assad. Yeah, that's the ticket. Fight Assad! Do I sound like the State Department yet?

Anonymous orlynao August 02, 2014 9:09 AM  

The other option Israel has is to simply sidestep the issue of 4GW and go completely old-school... full invasion of Gaza and, instead of expelling and replacing the residents, declare it a protectorate of the state of Israel. Then drop the hammer on all of the relevant leadership of Hamas. Set up a vague political system, and provide all firepower in defense of it, then very clearly tell every other nation in the region "hands off."

Anonymous Titus Didius Tacitus August 02, 2014 9:14 AM  

Israel got chewed up pretty good by Hezbollah. At that point, Hamas' reputation was comparatively poor. Now Israel is not performing very cleverly against Hamas either.

Israel has an awesome position of advantage because it dominates the American golem. Israel can never lose anything important because the Americans would intervene. Israel can never suffer the serious diplomatic costs that would ordinarily accompany its actions, because the Americans block any consequences. Israel has limitless technological and superiority, so the quality of its human material can't really be tested. And Israel can never suffer attrition, as any stocks it uses up are replaced at the expense of the Americans.

So Israel can fight limitless wars and treat every one as a learning experience. Every time the Arabs come up with a new trick, that's nice but from then on the Israelis know it and they didn't pay the price.

The Jewish superman is very real; how else could a small population utterly dominate the world's only superpower. (Even with the advantage of many Americans following a religion that in effect makes Israel God's state, and Jews little less than demigods.)

But this super-power, this super-ability, expresses itself best within a society where Jews can play a ruthless and aggressive team game against trusting, uncoordinated and un-aggressive individuals.

In war, once people have chosen sides and lined up shoulder to shoulder, listening only to the voices of their own people, the Jewish superman is not apparent.

Anonymous Titus Didius Tacitus August 02, 2014 9:30 AM  

Action Bronson: "So is Jeruseleum the modern day version of Constantinople?"

No. There is no historical precedent for Jewish domination of America and the advantages that gives Israel.

Seriously, it's a problem for the theory of international relations, because realist theories want to treat all states as essentially similar, like billiard balls of various sizes, moving as the "physics" of their security needs require. But the world's only superpower acts nothing like that. It doesn't act on its own security needs. (See: the Mexican border.) It acts on Israel's. And that's not supposed to happen.

These realist theories have been popular because till recently they matched pretty well with history. But now they don't. Not with this history. We're in a new game with new rules.

Anonymous Racialist Heretic August 02, 2014 9:36 AM  

The Jewish superman is very real; how else could a small population utterly dominate the world's only superpower.

How could the world's only [sic] superpower allow itself to be thoroughly hoodwinked and dominated? That's the question that should be asked.

Anonymous VD August 02, 2014 9:37 AM  

An Israeli writer who I respect offers a slightly-different take

He also praises Kerry; that alone raises doubts about his acumen.

And I just got an SMS news alert from The Jerusalem Post that the IDF is allegedly set to announce that all tunnels have been destroyed.

I imagine we'll find out soon enough if that announcement is actually true not too long after it is made. I'm not saying it's impossible, just that it strikes me as unlikely due to the fog of war.

Anonymous Dan in Tx August 02, 2014 9:40 AM  

RH: "How could the world's only [sic] superpower allow itself to be thoroughly hoodwinked and dominated? That's the question that should be asked."
..............................................................................................................
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" — Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild

Hope that helps clear it up.

Anonymous VD August 02, 2014 9:41 AM  

"So is Jeruseleum the modern day version of Constantinople?"

If you're looking for a historical analogy, Israel is more akin to the medieval version of the Kingdom of Jerusalem. Its existence will be imperiled if the Americans/Byzantines find themselves too occupied with their own problems to occasionally reinforce and generally take the pressure off the smaller realm.

Anonymous Racialist Heretic August 02, 2014 9:42 AM  

Nope, it doesn't. Nice try though.

The question remains, how could the world's only [sic] superpower allow itself to be thoroughly hoodwinked and dominated?

Blogger Nate August 02, 2014 9:49 AM  

I think you're far overstating things here. body counts absolutely DO matter in war. In fact Israel can continue trading punches at this K/D rate forever... where as Hamas will be out of combatants in a matter of months. 68 soldiers dead? whooptie damn doo. God knows how many Hamas soldiers they have killed. And God knows what kind of shape the tunnel system is in now that its been bombed to hell and gone. It could be fine... it could be wrecked. Dunno.

This is how I believe Israel should handle it.

1) Completely pull back and stop all attacks.

2) let things calm down and let everyone remember who started all this. Use this time to prepare for Step 3

3) Allow the next rocket attack to appear to take you off guard. limit civilian casualties as much as you can. But let it look like a sucker punch internationally even though it wasn't.

4) Smash. Make a naval assault from the west and a land assault from the north and south. Surround and lock down the entire Gaza strip. No one moves. No one goes anywhere. Specifically trained and equipped strike teams head for the tunnels. Options here are numerous but I have simply gassing the crap out of them.

5) completely de-populate Gaza. literally. everyone there goes. They either go to egypt or jordan or syria. If they refuse to cooporate... put them on the boat to somalia drop them off and say "best of luck".

6) With Gaza now depopulated... make the whole thing a military base.

Anonymous Titus Didius Tacitus August 02, 2014 9:57 AM  

Samuel Scott: "Another example of people thinking that Israelis are a bunch of Woody Allens."

Of course not. Jews are skilled, formidable and deadly aggressors.

It's just that, against opponents that openly call them enemies and put up their hands to fight, Jews don't display the sort of super-supremacy they have regularly displayed in other fields, with Jews often rising to the top in finance, academia, law, culture and politics.

Anonymous Samuel Scott August 02, 2014 10:15 AM  

Titus Didius Tacitus August 02, 2014 9:57 AM

Of course not. Jews are skilled, formidable and deadly aggressors.

It's just that, against opponents that openly call them enemies and put up their hands to fight, Jews don't display the sort of super-supremacy they have regularly displayed in other fields, with Jews often rising to the top in finance, academia, law, culture and politics.


It's because Israel has to fight with one hand tied behind its back. Israel could certainly demolish Gaza a la Carthage very easily (I'm not saying it should). But Israel is unfairly (in my opinion) judged in the opinion of the world, which watches every little thing that the country does. Israel is torn between doing what needs to be done and wondering what the world will think.

Anonymous Anonymous August 02, 2014 10:24 AM  

Israel has its own stupid leftist brigade holding it back, too.

They won't even execute captured terrorists, thus setting them up for endless prisoner trades and kidnapping.

Anonymous Dan in Tx August 02, 2014 10:26 AM  

It's torn because it depends on the support of the U.S. and the west. I don't think Bibi would have any qualms about leveling Gaza and killing every living thing there and that he's just afraid that if he did that he might not get an invite to a social event. The Israeli government knows they can only push so far.

This ties in with something I've been pondering for some time. Is Abe in Japan reinterpreting their constitution a result of the U.S. pushing them to be used as a tool against China or does he see the hand writing on the wall that the U.S. is approaching collapse and won't be able to back them up should a military conflict arise? Same with Israel. The U.S. protects them from South Africa style sanctions and such being imposed. You have to wonder if they are not looking ahead and worried about what happens when the U.S. is no longer able to hold sway. They could easily find themselves a pariah state, isolated from the rest of the world. Thus the reason they are torn between what needs to be done and wondering what the world will think.

Blogger Dark Herald August 02, 2014 10:29 AM  

Israel is more akin to the medieval version of the Kingdom of Jerusalem. Its existence will be imperiled if the Americans/Byzantines find themselves too occupied with their own problems to occasionally reinforce and generally take the pressure off the smaller realm.

Similar but the key difference is that there was no effort made to colonize poor old Outremer. A few of the more bleary eyed pilgrims got stuck there from time to time but that wasn't the same as a transplanted European population. Which is what Israel now has.

But this raises the key question: How much does Israel need us anymore? Annual GDP is 273 billion. Revenue $109.7 billion, Expenditures: $113.9 billion Annual US aid is 3 billion. Truth be told, I don't think they need us all that badly anymore.

Anonymous Titus Didius Tacitus August 02, 2014 10:36 AM  

Racialist Heretic: "How could the world's only [sic] superpower allow itself to be thoroughly hoodwinked and dominated? That's the question that should be asked."

Race has to be part of the answer. The Jewish superman is very real. There's no theory or tactic Australian Aborigines could have used to do what the Jews have done.

I think religion is another part of the answer. The Jews revere the ancestors of the Jews. American non-Jews also revere the ancestors of the Jews, and not their own ancestors, at least not in anything like the same religious way.

"Honor your father and your mother, so that you may live long in the land the LORD your God is giving you."

Good advice. Honor your own ancestors, and you may keep your land. Honor somebody else's ancestors, and they have a great advantage in dominating your land and you too.

The Romans, revering Romulus, were in a much better position to ignore or reject Jewish influence than Judeo-Christian Americans are, desiring to be blessed through Abraham.

I think technology is another part of the answer. Historically, Jews have shown a superhuman genius for arranging choke points and monopolies. But there was no way to corner the market on opinion without having an army of face-to-face agents of influence like monks, wandering everywhere and talking to people. Domination of the airwaves, which in effect became a Jewish monopoly, meant that there were Jewish voices whispering in everyone's ears for the hours a day that they watched the boob tube while in a semi-comatose, receptive state.

Finally, blame Edward I in AD 1290 and Oliver Cromwell in 1656. During the long period between the expulsion of the Jews and Oliver Cromwell's invitation to them to return, the English developed a culture in which the Jews were not a problem, and this carried over to all the other English-speaking peoples, including the Americans.

Now let's apply this to the Arabs and the present conflict. The Jews still have racial superiority and collective domination, as always. The Arabs, more than whites, have revered their own ancestors, and this gives them a greater tenacity in keeping their own cultures and lands, a tenacity that can't easily be taken away from them unless they change their religion. The Arabs seem less inclined than Americans to take in an endless river of technological Jewish propaganda, trustingly and unaware that it comes from an enemy. Al Jazeera shows that wealthy Arabs, completely unlike wealthy white Americans, are aware there is a problem and are willing to spend money to shape the media and cultural environment in a way that advances their culture and reflects their interests. Therefore, if spending your money entitles you to results, the Arabs are entitled to superior results, including a greater degree of cultural autonomy than whites enjoy. And finally, the advantage of the Jews in the English-speaking world, a long and culturally formative period in which Jews were not a problem, or only a problem for distant foreigners, is not an issue for Palestinians.

That explains why some ragged Arabs in the Gaza Strip can do a better job resisting Jewish cultural, political and demographic displacement than hundreds of millions of talented white Americans can.

Anonymous Laz August 02, 2014 10:39 AM  

"First you need a navy, then you can talk about disrupting waterways."

Yeah, it's not like an inflatable boat loaded with explosive could do very much damage.

Anonymous zen0 August 02, 2014 10:43 AM  

@ luagha

On the topic of 'pushing the Gazans into Egypt..."

If none of the Arab countries want them, I am sure Obama does.

In Gaza, Israel, and Judea/Samaria there are 4.7 million of the nasty little buggers.
In America, there are 5.4 million Jews.

Just trade straight across. Americans who decry the Jewish influence will be happy, and Obama gets more not-Americans to sew discord and chaos.

Its bi-winning.

Anonymous Titus Didius Tacitus August 02, 2014 10:50 AM  

Samuel Scott: "But Israel is unfairly (in my opinion) judged in the opinion of the world, which watches every little thing that the country does. Israel is torn between doing what needs to be done and wondering what the world will think."

That's a pretty strong confirmation of the relevance and effectiveness of 4th generation warfare, it's it?

From my point of view, it's just a pity that it doesn't do whites any good.

If Jews had to exercise great restraint in what they did to America and other white nations because of constant, intense scrutiny, that might help us. But a tradeoff where the spotlight moves from Arab grievances to our grievances is not available.

Anonymous a_peraspera August 02, 2014 10:54 AM  

As someone said above, Hamas is probably just trying to hold out until the West steps in and forces Israel to back off. But what if no one steps in?

The US has other concerns at the moment. Planes getting shot down. Putin grabbing Ukraine and everyone wondering who's next. Floods of third world immigrants crashing the gates. ISIS spreading like wildfire across Iraq. Internal kerfuffles like the IRS, Obamacare, NSA spying. EBOLA.

Obama only really cares about crushing internal dissent and creating a one-party dictatorship in the US. He doesn't have time to to screw with the Israelis. He will have a few conferences with Netanyahu, make a few speeches condemning the violence, and then go play some golf. Even if he wanted to do anything, he wouldn't try it before the midterm elections.

And if the US does nothing, what other Western nation can intervene? Is France going to send troops over to protect the poor pitiful Gazans? I think all of Europe is focused on the latest boogeyman Putin instead of worrying about the I/P conflict.

Israel cringes from world condemnation out of long habit, but at some point they will realize the outrage has no teeth behind it.


Anonymous The other skeptic August 02, 2014 11:13 AM  

Now that Israel is telling the US to keep its nose out of Israel's business isn't it time we told Israel the same?

Anonymous YIH August 02, 2014 11:23 AM  

NorthernHamlet:
I liken 4gw to advertising campaigns. It's not about the early 1950s style ads anymore. Anything can convey the message, anything can sell the product. With the Internet, no one is too small to cause a brand problem.
They do get nervous when the mask falls and us goyim accidentally see the truth don't they?
Their biggest problem is they need more soldiers with the balls to do what needs to be done.

Anonymous Titus Didius Tacitus August 02, 2014 11:25 AM  

For 4th generation warfare, I think the difference between having some media of your own, like the Arabs do, even if it's outmatched, and having basically none, like whites do, is huge.

Anonymous VD August 02, 2014 11:34 AM  

It's because Israel has to fight with one hand tied behind its back.

Israel doesn't have to, any more than the USA had to in Vietnam. This is the whole point of 4GW. The simple ability to crush an enemy state with force no longer matters, because the enemy state has become irrelevant.

Unless the state power is willing to resort to 0GW, which involves genocidal colonization, it has to resort to 4GW tactics to succeed. Israel is rightly reluctant to do so, because it would spell the death knell for European Jewry and sacrifice their ability to play the Holocaust card.

Anonymous The other skeptic August 02, 2014 11:34 AM  

Since the Jews have determined that:

We have already established that it is the responsibility of every government to ensure the safety and security of its people.

we now have cause to prosecute governments who fail.

Oh, I guess it depends on the meaning of its people.

Anonymous Hunsdon August 02, 2014 11:39 AM  

@ POUND

Gen. Paul Van Riper, Millenium Challenge 2002, small boats, motorcycle messengers, asymmetric warfare and, of course, rule changes to make sure the good guys won.

Anonymous Titus Didius Tacitus August 02, 2014 11:40 AM  

The other skeptic: "Oh, I guess it depends on the meaning of its people."

Back to the problem of objectives, which is where we came in.

Anonymous The other skeptic August 02, 2014 11:43 AM  

I am looking forward to more War Crimes trials and Psychology Experiments

Anonymous Titus Didius Tacitus August 02, 2014 12:02 PM  

The other skeptic: "Now that Israel is telling the US to keep its nose out of Israel's business isn't it time we told Israel the same?"

It is.

But before that can happen, whites need political representatives to deliver the message. And for that to happen, there has to be white media, explicitly reflecting white values and cultures, and explicitly advancing white interests.

Experience has shown that white politicians beholden to rich Jews for their campaign funding and beholden to Jewish media for the chance to make their case for (re)election generally prioritize Jewish values and interests over white values and interests.

I don't particularly love Arabs, whose interests are not our. But I do respect their firm determination to secure their own interests, maintain their own cultures, build their own media, and put out their own messages.

The suffer a lot from sellout politicians, like we do, but they keep trying, decade after decade. And, in an inefficient, bottom-up way, they are getting better results than us.

You don't have to just roll over and die because your enemies are more talented than you.

Blogger pyrrhus August 02, 2014 12:11 PM  

VD, I think your list of objectives, while reasonable when the war started, is now inadequate. The Palestinians, having tasted something like success, now must be completely ejected from Gaza or they will be back in greater force and with better weapons.

Anonymous A Visitor August 02, 2014 12:11 PM  

"To bring complete quiet to Gaza would require a takeover and occupation of the territory for six months to a year, he said. Israel, which unilaterally withdrew its forces and settlements from the Gaza Strip in 2005, has little appetite to return."

Ergo, the current conflict it can be argued is an exercise in futility. Why not use the tunnels instead of destroy them? Find out where they go, maybe turn the tables on Hamas in a few instances. Send unmanned vehicles ahead of you to check for explosives and other surprises. This is the 21st century after all, not the '60s.

"What is left, military officials say, is to create deterrence. In recent years, Israeli strategists have spoken of the “Dahiya doctrine,” referring to Israel’s flattening of the Dahiya district in Beirut, a Shiite neighborhood that housed the command-and-control headquarters of Hezbollah, during its 34-day war in Lebanon in the summer of 2006. The idea was to inflict such damage that the other side would decide confrontation was not worthwhile."

I'll blame the NYT for misinterpreting deterrence. Deterrence, like men who just get it in game, should not have to be explained. An example: no country would seriously consider attacking the United States because of our nuclear deterrent. You don't need to explain to another country what is at the top of the ladder of escalation or what may happen. They just know. The type of deterrence they are talking about is deterrence by coercion, which is making fighting so painful that an enemy doesn't want to do it. The other type of deterrence is deterrence by denial where one denies an enemy their war aims. The objective there is not to necessarily inflict pain beyond their threshold but to simply deny their objectives. Finally, often mistaken for deterrence, is brute force, where you simply kill an adversary because you want to without deterrence in mind. The closest analogy we've seen of that in recent years is the Third Reich during the Second World War: the SS, specifically, went in and killed all non-Aryan persons in an area not because they wanted to deter the enemy through pain or denial but because they just wanted to.

The biggest problem is Israel has with its deterrence is that it's not credible. If they were serious about the Dahiya doctrine they would do that in every instance and blow off the world. The enemy would get the message, fast.

"I guarantee you that Iran is taking notes as we speak, and thinking up all the possible ways that they could screw over the IDF in an actual conflict." Hmm...cyber attacks to cripple C4ISR, Hebrew linguists that can hack into their radio networks and sow confusion, plus whack a mole. Look at what they did to us in Iraq.

"The only western government success in 4GW that comes to mind at all, is the U.S. immediately post 9-11. It was largely by accident. AQ had inflicted enough damage on the U.S. that the media (very temporarily) overcame it's anti-western prejudices and dehumanized the enemy. That was a help." There was that and also scant coverage of the early days of OEF for a reason. Frankly, people didn't care how the military killed the enemy so long as they did.

"and win if they play the nuke card" Samson option, messy. The reason they won't lose their collective soul is because they have morals. Their enemy has none. That's the true bitch of war...you only win in total war if you lose your morals in the process.

Anonymous A Visitor August 02, 2014 12:12 PM  

"This type of thing reminds me of the US training excercise from a few years back."

It was called Millennium Challenge. It was in 2005 and set the US Navy's 5th Fleet against an unnamed Gulf country that everyone knew was Iran. We studied it in grad school. The vice admiral commanding the Iranian military was able to sink the 5th Fleet via turning off and on of SAM sites, denying the US air superiority, use of swarming techniques of speedboats against our larger vessels, and Sunburn anti-ship missiles. As you stated, it was so humiliating to the Pentagon that they refloated the 5th Fleet while keeping the Iranian forces constricted in what actions they could take and viola blue victory! Most people forget we lost an F-16 or two to Iraqi SAMs during the First Gulf War.


I like Nate's idea of a naval assault. The only question is how could they do that and keep enough in reserve for other crazy existential threats: i.e. Egypt decided it wants the Sinai back or another power wants the Golan heights back?

Anonymous zen0 August 02, 2014 12:25 PM  

@ A Visitor

The reason they won't lose their collective soul is because they have morals. Their enemy has none. That's the true bitch of war...you only win in total war if you lose your morals in the process.

Au contraire. The Hamas fighters are very moral and more committed. More so than the Israelis. It is just that their morals are different. They consider blowing oneself up on suicide missions and using children as human shields are signs of strength.

Anonymous fnn August 02, 2014 12:42 PM  

In reading The World at War, one of the most striking things is the way in which "the political level" repeatedly outweighed military concerns in Germany, Britain, Japan, the Soviet Union, and the USA.

I think it was Hugh Trevor-Roper who said that AH could have won the war in 1940 by betraying Franco, taking Gibraltar and closing off the Med to the Brits. But AH wanted Franco's voluntary cooperation-so he went through fruitless negotiations that were worse than a "trip to the dentist."

Anonymous Just Some Guy August 02, 2014 12:59 PM  

What is so special about tunnels? Theyv'e been a feature of seige warfare for centuries. There's nothing new or magic about them. Defenders of Rhodes and Vienna set bowls of water and looked for rings, or drums with sand and peas to listen for rattle - they'd know a tunnel was being dug under them, and counter with their own tunnel.

Hey, IDF, here's one solution:
Put thousands of seismic detectors all along the Gaza border. Whenever a tunnel is detected intruding into IDF defended land, drill a 200mm bore shaft down to it and start pumping in cement with coarse aggregate mixed in. A few dozen cubic meters should do the job. Repeat as necessary. Be consistent, do this every single time tunnel digging is detected. Use modern seismic imaging from time to time to get a 3-D picture of what's under the border. No muss, no fuss, no big optics of dead children or blown up houses for CNN, just an ever increasing number of blobs of cement underground, between the two sides.

Of course, the seige will continue, by a different means. But there's no need to risk a lot of troops just to seal tunnels off.

Anonymous 11B August 02, 2014 2:04 PM  

5) completely de-populate Gaza. literally. everyone there goes. They either go to egypt or jordan or syria. If they refuse to cooporate... put them on the boat to somalia drop them off and say "best of luck".

Shitcan that talk right now. We all know if they de-populate Gaza the chances are better than 50-50 the Gazans would end up in America. I can just see it now, Egypt and Jordan are too poor to accept a million immigrants, and Syria is in the midst of a civil war. In jumps the USA, who as usual is trying to broker a deal for peace in the middle east. Why striking a deal to bring these folks to America might even garner Kerry a Nobel. And come on, what's another million immigrants to America anyway? It's not like we will even notice it.

Blogger napari August 02, 2014 2:52 PM  


And when one looks at its objectives, it is apparent that Israel has won the tunnel war.
Don't look now but Israel is just about finished destroying those tunnels, many years in the making using child labor.
Before long Hamas will be finished.
This is reality instead of wishful thinking. ;)

Anonymous Feelings, Nothing More Than Feelings August 02, 2014 3:11 PM  

Don't look now but Israel is just about finished destroying those tunnels, many years in the making using child labor.

Maybe so, maybe no. The IDF has been surprised multiple times recently, so what else are they missing?

Of course, your little driveby postings are zero content and thus zero interest to thinking people. Look, I appreciate that trolling comments is your job, but you don't do it very well. Maybe you could ask your pal Whisky to drop by? He's better at it, provides more entertainment value.

Blogger Nate August 02, 2014 3:34 PM  

"Shitcan that talk right now. We all know if they de-populate Gaza the chances are better than 50-50 the Gazans would end up in America."

You will note I said this is what I would do were I running Israel. Were I running Israel.. I wouldn't give two shits about the problems in the US.. and frankly... given the way the US has reacted... there is a certain poetic justice. "Hey Uncle Sam... you like them so much? You deal with them."

Anonymous VD August 02, 2014 3:59 PM  

Before long Hamas will be finished.

How long, Napari. Do give us an estimate on the basis of your superior knowledge. Six days or six weeks?

Anonymous Don August 02, 2014 4:06 PM  

What's Hamas' goal in all this? They cannot win a total military victory. Are they just trying to improve their political status or maybe setting the stage for the next round of negotiations?

Anonymous The other skeptic August 02, 2014 4:07 PM  

"Hey Uncle Sam... you like them so much? You deal with them."

Oh shit. That must be what the Germans said.

Blogger Nate August 02, 2014 4:37 PM  

"They cannot win a total military victory. "

of course they can. but these actions aren't about that. Like most westerners you're thinking to short term. What is going on now is not about the short term. it is about convincing the world that Israel is the bad guy.

and by half-assing their response Israel is allowing this kind of long term plan to remain a threat.

If Israel went in and wiped out everyone and everything... it would be a huge story for about a month. 2 years later... no one would care. Israel literally needs to depopulate the whole area. Yes... 1.8 million people will not be that easy to move... but it can be done. particularly with the proper motivation.

Anonymous Anonymous August 02, 2014 5:00 PM  

":Obama only really cares about crushing internal dissent and creating a one-party dictatorship in the US. He doesn't have time to to screw with the Israelis."

Ah, the question is not what Obama cares about in this case, but what Valerie Jarrett cares about in this case. She probably has plenty of time to take focus on this one.

Anonymous cheddarman August 02, 2014 5:01 PM  

We could settle the Palestinians in Gaza into Detroit. They might be able to make some improvements.

Anonymous Anonymous August 02, 2014 5:27 PM  

We could settle the Palestinians in Gaza into Detroit.

Could we also settle an equal number of Detroit residents in Gaza? I could imagine that having interesting, even beneficial, effects on both ends.

Anonymous The other skeptic August 02, 2014 7:28 PM  

What flag does Marine Le Pen use?

Anonymous 11B August 02, 2014 11:46 PM  

Israel literally needs to depopulate the whole area. Yes... 1.8 million people will not be that easy to move... but it can be done. particularly with the proper motivation.

It's a shame Americans don't display this much enthusiasm in solving our own demographic problems.

Blogger Akulkis August 04, 2014 8:46 AM  

Of course, the political part of 4GW is a done deal, if they start pushing the whole population into Egypt, they can end the problem forever in the long term

You make the mistake that the Egyptians have any more interest in playing host to the child-sacrificing-by-fire Molech-worshipping Philistines than the Isreal does.

The fact of the matter is, NOBODY wants Moloch-worshippers permanently settled in their midst -- these are people who run out into the street to dance and pass out candy whenever one find out that his or her OWN CHILD had blown himself up with dynamite. This is why after 70 years, they are still "refugees"... which is ironic, since the Philistines are living on the exact same stretch of land (the Gaza strip) right now that they were living on 3000 years ago.

Blogger Akulkis August 04, 2014 8:53 AM  

I guarantee you that Iran is taking notes as we speak, and thinking up all the possible ways that they could screw over the IDF in an actual conflict.

Iranian forces have to either try to create a beachhead without the landing craft getting chewed up the the Isreali air force, or travell all the way across Iraq before getting to Isreal's borders. I doubt that this will give them the tunnelling option that Hamas has. Also, Trying to push a even one division sized element through Hamas' 6-foot wide tunnels wouldn't work very well at all. Even casual air surveillance would quickly identify the location of a tunnel exit.

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