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Friday, November 13, 2015

Mailvox: the Farmer's Iowa call

Farmer Tom makes a prediction:
I'm personal friends with the Iowa campaign managers for Trump and Cruz. I know Carson's Iowa guy, Huckebee's guy, hate the a-hole who was Perry's guy. Met several times Rubio' s guy, once in his Senate office.

I know these people and the insides of the system.

I can tell you right now that Trump will not win Iowa, he will get second or third.

1. Carson
2. Trump
3.Cruz
4. Probably Rand because the RP people will hang to the end.
I don't predict American politics anymore because I'm far too out of touch with them. But that's the word from the ground in Iowa.

Labels:

72 Comments:

Anonymous farmer Tom November 13, 2015 3:09 PM  

It will probably be Rubio before Rand. But that is less clear to me right now.

Blogger Josh November 13, 2015 3:16 PM  

Well, if this the predictions thread, as of right now, I predict Iowa goes:

1 Cruz
2 Rand
3 Carson
4 Trump

Rand's only advantage over Carson and Trump is organization.

I think that Trump's comments this week will hurt him in Iowa.

I still think Carson could have a spectacularly bad debate moment between now and the caucuses, but there's only two debates left.

Anonymous Viidad November 13, 2015 3:16 PM  

Thanks for the report.

What's your prediction on this winter weather, though? It's been hot down here... still feels like late summer.

Blogger Dave November 13, 2015 3:19 PM  

"This just in; according to some farmer named Tom, Trump will lose the Iowa caucus. Trump's campaign declined to comment"

Blogger RobertT November 13, 2015 3:19 PM  

It's possible because this is a caucus, not a vote at the ballot box. You'll have to actually attend a meeting of the establishment, even though it's just the caucus establishment. A lot of Trump's voters may not react well to rubbing shoulders with the establishment. A lot of Trump people may not vote in Iowa.

Blogger Josh November 13, 2015 3:26 PM  

"This just in; according to some farmer named Tom, Trump will lose the Iowa caucus. Trump's campaign declined to comment"

"How stupid are the people of Iowa? How stupid are the people of the country to believe this crap?"

"And the people of Iowa believe him. Give me a break. Give me a break. It doesn't happen that way. It doesn't happen that way. … Don't be fools, okay?"

Blogger dh November 13, 2015 3:27 PM  

Iowa is a bad predictor of success. It's almost entirely 100% about the expectation game. Carson is now expected to win Iowa, which means if/when he doesn't, it will be failing to meet the expectation. That will drive the media coverage between Iowa and New Hampshire dramatically.

Blogger Noah B #120 November 13, 2015 3:28 PM  

I wasn't surprised to see Carson ahead in the polls there. Iowa has a lousy track record of picking nominees. New Hampshire and South Carolina are much more relevant.

Blogger kennymac November 13, 2015 3:31 PM  

Who gives a shit about Iowa? When was the last time those gubmint teat sucking farmers picked a winner? Here's how to win in Iowa, just promise them more sweet gubmint cash in return for their votes an entire state full of whores for the fed gravy train

Blogger Emmanuel Mateo-Morales November 13, 2015 3:39 PM  

Call me when there's money involved.

Blogger JaimeInTexas November 13, 2015 3:40 PM  

"robably Rand because the RP people will hang to the end."

Are the Ron Paul people really still backing Rand? I don't see it. Waiting and see how things go, maybe. But, Rand wasted Ron's legacy.

Blogger Salt November 13, 2015 3:43 PM  

I'm waiting for Hillary to slip on a banana peel.

Blogger Conan the Cimmerian November 13, 2015 3:57 PM  

Too bad they all can't lose (to misquote a tribal)

Blogger darkdoc November 13, 2015 3:59 PM  

Great call two months before the caucus. (by great, I mean stupid).

I have a farm and work with Iowa and Illinois farmers daily. While I appreciate how much work it is and appreciate the food they grow, they are not thinkers, and and generallly have very shallow opinions about just about everything.

Plus, they are as dishonest, scheming, and difficult to believe as any group you are likely to encounter. It's more fun to cheat you out of a dollar than it is to earn it. So take all their opinions for what they are worth.

Anonymous Leonidas November 13, 2015 4:01 PM  

I think that Trump's comments this week will hurt him in Iowa.

I don't think he gives a s%$$ about Iowa, frankly.

Blogger maniacprovost November 13, 2015 4:16 PM  

Since Iowa tends to make the most meaningless and aggravating choice possible, for the sole purpose of making them look important enough for continued subsidies, Carson is a likely pick.

Blogger Lana J November 13, 2015 4:19 PM  

I'd bet on Tom having a better analysis on Iowa over any political consultant, let alone some random commenter who just showed up at VP recently. He's been calling it right so far.

Blogger The Rev November 13, 2015 4:20 PM  

@11

Is there someway we could put Ron's brain in Rand's body? Rand is only electable when his father's words are coming out of his mouth.

Blogger Cogitans Iuvenis November 13, 2015 4:26 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Cogitans Iuvenis November 13, 2015 4:26 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Paulie Boy November 13, 2015 4:27 PM  

I always expected Carson to win. It's funny that Iowa has some bearing, though it is overstated, on the republican primary. Iowa always votes democrat in presidential elections. It is a state full of cuckservatives safely ensconced in one of the last bations of Whiteness in the u.s. Discussing the realities of race with these people is impossible. These people should be forced to live in Detroit and send their kids to the public schools.

Blogger Cogitans Iuvenis November 13, 2015 4:32 PM  

Are the Ron Paul people really still backing Rand? I don't see it. Waiting and see how things go, maybe. But, Rand wasted Ron's legacy.

As someone who campaigned for Ron as a delegate in 2012, I can tell you it's split. I've heard some call him a neo-con, despite the fact that Rand has come out and said that ISIS is the fault of US policy.

But honestly, Ron Paul's legacy isn't worth much in regards to getting elected... I admire the man, I think he would be a great president, but the facts are that if the shit that went down from 2008 to 2012 wasn't enough to move Ron from fringe GOP status to actual contender then it would be entirely unreasonable to expect that Rand being exactly like his dad would result in anything different.

Ron is an idealist whereas Rand is definitely much more of a pragmatist, and personally I am fine with that. He has done a lot as senator to fight for the cause of freedom. He is a damned site better than any of the other candidates when it comes to coherent foreign policy, economics and civil liberties period, no one else comes close. But civil liberties, economics and foreign policy aren't what driving the GOP primaries.

Blogger dh November 13, 2015 4:34 PM  

C.I. I happen to agree with you totally. It's not my politics, but Rand is a decent politician to have on your side.

Anonymous the woodsman November 13, 2015 4:43 PM  

I live in eastern Iowa and I agree that Trump will not win the caucus. I attended the 2012 caucus at a large Lutheran church literally in the middle of a corn field. The place was packed. Majority of people over 65. The few under 40 were passionately speaking for Ron Paul. I kid you not, the main concern for the vast majority of the people there was the security of Israel!!!! The discussion went on and on about how Ron Paul would not protect Israel! The young people were exasperated. It really was incredible. These people are so damn stupid it is infuriating. Imagine that - the primary issue articulated by the majority of Iowans at that caucus was the security of Israel!

Blogger Daniel November 13, 2015 4:53 PM  

Trump wants top 3 in Iowa and that's it. No real delegates to be had, and he's hoping to win the big border states. I'll be stunned if he takes #1 from the designated Memorial Pat Robertson consolation prize. He has no intention of pandering to the remnants of the Christian Right, which is still marginally necessary if you really want the booby prize. The only thing Iowa loves more than its unelectable conservative christian nice guy is another candidate from the Midwest.

An opposed candidate who won the Iowa Primary in the last 30+ years has won the Presidency a total of...

...zero times.

So maybe Trump would be smart to throw the match if it looks like it could be close at the end!

Blogger Daniel November 13, 2015 4:58 PM  

I'm waiting for Hillary to slip on a banana peel.

Are you kidding? They'll drone strike the banana peel and call her a hero.

Anonymous rienzi November 13, 2015 5:00 PM  

"How stupid are the people of Iowa? How stupid are the people of the country to believe this crap?"

"And the people of Iowa believe him. Give me a break. Give me a break. It doesn't happen that way. It doesn't happen that way. … Don't be fools, okay?"


Say what you will about Trump, the guy sure doesn't play by the political guidebook does he. Calling the people whose votes you want a bunch of dumb-asses. Wow, never seen that before. With everything else that's gone on this year, I wouldn't be surprised if it boosted his poll numbers.

This is the most entertaining its been since '72 with Wallace and McGovern mixing it up with Tricky Dick.


Blogger daddynichol November 13, 2015 5:01 PM  

Great call two months before the caucus. (by great, I mean stupid).

I have a farm and work with Iowa and Illinois farmers daily. While I appreciate how much work it is and appreciate the food they grow, they are not thinkers, and and generallly have very shallow opinions about just about everything.

Plus, they are as dishonest, scheming, and difficult to believe as any group you are likely to encounter. It's more fun to cheat you out of a dollar than it is to earn it. So take all their opinions for what they are worth.


Great to see a self professed farm owner trash the people who operate his farm, unless you actually farm yourself. In that case, you really are a self loathing prick.

I don't believe our new poster is who he says he is. Remember: Vox's Rule #1 - SJWs Alway Lie.

Farmer Tom may be wrong on his prediction but at least he has the respect of others here, whereas you have yet to earn a speck.

Blogger Cail Corishev November 13, 2015 5:12 PM  

I live in eastern Iowa and I agree that Trump will not win the caucus.

Were there people who thought that New York-loving New Yorker Trump, who once said on his TV show, "I am New York," was ever going to win Iowa? Because that's insane. If he could win Iowa, that would mean he's so far ahead that the rest of them might as well just go home, because it's over. I'd have been less surprised if he hadn't campaigned there at all.

Anonymous Cyclone Bob November 13, 2015 5:23 PM  

Daniel: An opposed candidate who won the Iowa Primary in the last 30+ years has won the Presidency a total of... ...zero times.

One times: W Bush in 2000


@Farmer Tom: I don't see the problem with that 9 minute Carson speech. It is utterly confounding that the afronautsurgeon can be polling that high, even in Iowa. Trump should be credited for not screaming WTF??? when asking the audience how Iowans could possibly support that guy. Maybe he's a living testament to the power of God and his Son to reform a lost soul; but if that is the motivation behind his support, it is dead wrong. People should be voting for God, not a reformed demon.
And if 20% of the GOP are that effing stupid, the party has no business being in business. At all.

Blogger JaimeInTexas November 13, 2015 5:31 PM  

Rand has been trying to split the baby and lost his father's supporters and has not made a dent towards acceptance by the GOP elite. That is why he comes off particularly self contradicting.

Blogger ncartist November 13, 2015 5:38 PM  

And when Trump is out of the race, Carson will finally be attacked and driven from the field; at that point Jebe! will step forward and gather all the Carson, Rubio, and Cruz votes thus becoming the nominee even though no one wanted him. Carson is Jeb! Judas goat: all as planned.

Blogger Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus November 13, 2015 5:49 PM  

Yeah, but how many people who win Iowa go on to win the nomination?

Anyone remember nominee Huckabee or nominee Santorum?

Blogger Josh November 13, 2015 6:07 PM  

Yeah, but how many people who win Iowa go on to win the nomination?

How many people who win NH go on to win the general election?

Blogger Josh November 13, 2015 6:09 PM  

It is utterly confounding that the afronautsurgeon can be polling that high, even in Iowa.

Couldn't you just as easily say that it's utterly confounding that an amoral liberal jackass Yankee philanderer is polling that high?

Blogger darkdoc November 13, 2015 6:10 PM  

@28

I have been posting on this site for at least four years. I don't need to prove jack shite to you. VFM #184.

And yeah, I've worked with farmers for the 15 years I've owned a local farm. Experience speaks.

SJW huh? Go chew on your thumb child.

Blogger Josh November 13, 2015 6:10 PM  

Were there people who thought that New York-loving New Yorker Trump, who once said on his TV show, "I am New York," was ever going to win Iowa?

Yes. Trump, Trump staffers, and Trump supporters. Because Trump is a winner who wins and is used to winning.

Blogger Josh November 13, 2015 6:11 PM  

C.I. I happen to agree with you totally. It's not my politics, but Rand is a decent politician to have on your side.

dh, do you "feel the Bern?"

Blogger Nate November 13, 2015 6:18 PM  

point of fact...

If Trump won Iowa... Trumpsters would talk about it like the whole election was officially over. Iowa would mean everything.

Trump doesn't win Iowa... Iowa doesn't matter.

Trumpsters are simply not objective... and generally specific.. with a few notable exceptions.. are not even rational.

Anonymous Viidad November 13, 2015 6:18 PM  

@darkdoc

"I have been posting on this site for at least four years."

So - why attack Farmer Tom? The ad hominem was a smear tactic, hence the incredulity towards your opinion.

Blogger Guitar Man November 13, 2015 6:30 PM  

Butthurt Trumpers are the most reactionary people out there.

Blogger Josh November 13, 2015 6:32 PM  

Butthurt Trumpers are the most reactionary people out there.

No, they are NEO reactionary. #nrx or #Nrx or #nRx or #nrX or something.

Blogger darkdoc November 13, 2015 6:35 PM  

Vidad

I didn't attack Farmer Tom per se, but two ideas. One - that anyone can make a prediction about Iowa this early. We have weeks of politicians making mistakes before the caucus. Lord knows what the result will be.

Two - that farmers I have talked with have little idea of what is happening around them because they just aren't thinkers. Farmer Tom may be brilliant, but being a farmer means little to me. He has an opinion, so do I.

I have nothing against Farmer Tom. And he can defend himself if so inclined. I haven't seen him ask for anyone's help.

Blogger Nate November 13, 2015 6:45 PM  

"Two - that farmers I have talked with have little idea of what is happening around them because they just aren't thinkers. Farmer Tom may be brilliant, but being a farmer means little to me. He has an opinion, so do I."

Farmer Tom has been a thoughtful and valued commenter here for well over a decade sugar tits.

Who are you?

Blogger Guitar Man November 13, 2015 6:46 PM  

I've never heard of darcdoc. If he's an MGTOW, that could be why. I tune those fools out.

Blogger Josh November 13, 2015 6:47 PM  

Who are you?

He is Spartacus

Blogger Nate November 13, 2015 6:55 PM  

"One - that anyone can make a prediction about Iowa this early. We have weeks of politicians making mistakes before the caucus. Lord knows what the result will be."

What makes you look stupid here is you don't know who Farmer Tom is. You don't know that he is more in-tune with Iowa politics than just about anyone you will hear from anywhere, and has been for decades.

Blogger darkdoc November 13, 2015 7:37 PM  

What makes you look stupid here is you don't know who Farmer Tom is. You don't know that he is more in-tune with Iowa politics than just about anyone you will hear from anywhere, and has been for decades.

OK Nate, I'll concede that Farmer Tom has superior political knowledge in Iowa. We'll know how it all turns out in a couple of months anyway. This is not a hill worth dying on.

I don't know what sugar tits is/are. Spartacus, MGTOW, fool, stupid - no.

Blogger Erika Juhasz Nagy November 13, 2015 7:41 PM  

Rick Santorum won Iowa in 2012. No way the vote Trump #1, unless ISIS shows up in Des Moines.

VFM 260

Anonymous aegis-1080 November 13, 2015 7:42 PM  

WaPo is running a bunch of articles about how mean Trump was to the poor Iowans....as if they care. They are shitlibs, they are just pissed that Trump is getting away with gutting the GOP sacred cows instead of them.

Overall, latest poll has Trump taking points out of Carson's hide. Watching the "Can't even" brigade and their idol Nate Silver be caught with their pants down in front of the Trumpenkrieg is hilarious.

Blogger Nate November 13, 2015 7:45 PM  

"I don't know what sugar tits is/are."

it means you've said something so obviously stupid I won't be bothered to actually address you by name.

Anonymous JI November 13, 2015 7:57 PM  

I still think it's going to come down to a Bush versus a Clinton. There's no way the elites can pass up on an opportunity like that for both entertainment and profit!

Anonymous aegis-1080 November 13, 2015 8:06 PM  

"I still think it's going to come down to a Bush versus a Clinton. There's no way the elites can pass up on an opportunity like that for both entertainment and profit!"

The Trump bombing of Jeb's campaign, together with the failure of the new and improved Jeb! and the fact that Jeb couldn't hide for a second how much he hates Trump on the debateall tell that Jeb is not getting the nomination. If the bet is that the establishment are going to get what they want, Rubio is your boy.

Blogger Daniel November 13, 2015 8:44 PM  

W took the Presidency, Cyclone Bob. Not sure that he won it.

Blogger daddynichol November 13, 2015 8:49 PM  

Darkdoc

Commenting for 4 years? That's all? You should have known your smearing of Farmer Tom would be viewed as ignorant. Maybe you learned something today.

Blogger darkdoc November 13, 2015 9:45 PM  

daddynichol

Give it a rest, would you?

Blogger daddynichol November 13, 2015 10:28 PM  

Doc.

Fuck off.

Now, II'll give it a rest.

Blogger daddynichol November 13, 2015 10:29 PM  

Doc.

Fuck off.

Now, II'll give it a rest.

Blogger Timmy3 November 13, 2015 10:37 PM  

Iowa doesn't decide the election. No one state does. Iowa will help clear the field so we will know how this works out.

OpenID vfmshadow0342 November 13, 2015 11:49 PM  

@41:

What's wrong with being (neo)reactionary? It isn't like 'conservatism' has helped the country any.

Or to paraphrase Chesterton: Progressives make mistakes. Conservatives prevent the mistakes from being corrected.

Blogger Student in Blue November 13, 2015 11:59 PM  

I'm curious what Iowa considers their #1 after the Paris attacks. I'd think immigration would become a lot of people's number one concern.

OpenID Jack Amok November 14, 2015 12:42 AM  

I'm waiting for Hillary to slip on a banana peel.

Are you kidding? They'll drone strike the banana peel and call her a hero.


They'll call it Ice Skating and give her a gold medal for the 2018 Winter Olympics. Y'know, for what she's going to do..

And then someone will try to Gilloolly Trump's knee.

As far as who's going to win Iowa...

... I was going to ask how many people thought it mattered, but instead, how about this:

What does it mean for North America if the nomination goes to:

-Trump?
-Carson?
-Cruz?
-?Yeb!?
-Paul?
-Rubio?
-Fiorinia?


Blogger SciVo November 14, 2015 3:40 AM  

@ Nate: Trumpsters are simply not objective... and generally specific.. with a few notable exceptions.. are not even rational.

I'm not really rational. I got a degree in math because I like a challenge, but rhetoric is my native tongue. I support Trump because it's a Xanatos gambit for me.

He wins and follows through, great! He wins and fucks up, that destroys trust in the corrupt system. He gets massive support and gets gamed out, that destroys trust too. The fantasy possibilities where he doesn't get much support don't merit consideration..

Anonymous Brian Williams November 14, 2015 6:52 AM  

They'll call it Ice Skating and give her a gold medal for the 2018 Winter Olympics. Y'know, for what she's going to do..

Just like the one she should have been given in Sarajevo but all the 10s got turned to 0 after sniper fire.

Blogger The Other Robot November 14, 2015 9:29 AM  

Will Trump get a bounce in the polls because of Paris?

I think he will.

OpenID Jack Amok November 14, 2015 12:04 PM  

Trumpsters are simply not objective... and generally specific.. with a few notable exceptions.. are not even rational.

What rational objectives do you see supporters of the other candidates having?

Blogger Unknown November 14, 2015 1:10 PM  

After 9/11, after Paris, after 30 million invaders have entered the US, any candidate whondoesn't make a credible comittment to closing the borders and deporting every mohammedan and every illegal we find here, doesn't get my vote.

Close the borders and repel boarders, or bugger off and make way for someone who will.

Blogger maniacprovost November 14, 2015 1:37 PM  

What rational objectives do you see supporters of the other candidates having?

Ted Cruz, close the borders.

Anonymous Anon133 November 14, 2015 2:45 PM  

"If Trump won Iowa... Trumpsters would talk about it like the whole election was officially over. Iowa would mean everything.

Trump doesn't win Iowa... Iowa doesn't matter.

Trumpsters are simply not objective... and generally specific.. with a few notable exceptions.. are not even rational."

Carson will win Iowa, with Trump in 2nd place. But Trump will win New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. There are four elections on Feb 1st, not just one. Thats why its objective to say Iowa doesnt matter.

Anonymous farmer Tom November 14, 2015 5:44 PM  

#53 You are right on Rubio.

Some clarification here.

I said of my prediction. As of today. Right now.

Paris will help Trump.

Cruz is taking a beating for his HB1 support. and other immigration comments.

Jebe is toast. I said that earlier, but it bears repeating. He couldn't get attention if he walked through downtown Des Moines with a broom stick up his ass, (maybe, that might get him points with the sodomy lobby and the press)

The establishment is currently looking for a champion since Jebe is toast. Iowa Repuke establishment want Chrisy Creme.
But, the lastest talk on talk radio and in my news feeds is that Rubio would be great on immigration and he's an articulate Hispanic, so that would win him votes for the Mexicans, and he's a pretty boy on TV, so that will get him the women's vote.

You are gonna hear a lot of "conservative media" and establishment Repuke hacks pushing Rubio.

Carson will win the same votes that voted for the idiot Pat Robertson, or Ricky Boy Santorum.

And I don't see them changing their minds unless it comes out that he's got a mistress on the side or been buggering little boys. Sex stuff would kill him.

OpenID Jack Amok November 14, 2015 6:25 PM  

Ted Cruz, close the borders.

And that differs from Trump how?

Blogger Scott November 15, 2015 3:23 PM  

I'd say the recent attack in France is enough to tip Iowa to Trump

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