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Tuesday, January 05, 2016

The art of punditry

Ross Douthat doubles down. He may have been wrong about Trump before, but he's still entirely confident that Trump can't win the nomination:
I certainly overestimated poor Jeb Bush, whom I wrongly predicted would profit from Trump’s rise. But for the rest — no, I had a pretty low opinion of the right-wing entertainment complex to begin with, and I’m not remotely surprised that the white working class would rally to a candidate running on populist and nationalist themes.

I am very surprised, though, that Trump himself would have the political savvy, the (relative) discipline and yes, the stamina required to exploit that opening and become that populist. And for that failure of imagination, I humbly repent.

Of course I’m not completely humbled. Indeed, I’m still proud enough to continue predicting, in defiance of national polling, that there’s still no way that Trump will actually be the 2016 Republican nominee.

Trust me: I’m a pundit.
That's the true art of punditry. Never changing your mind, even while you are admitting that you're wrong.

No wonder I couldn't hack it. Meanwhile, Reihan Salam explains what Douthat missed, and is missing, at NRO:
“[Trump's] emergence as the voice of the anti-immigration Right is a reflection of the failure of the Republican establishment to grapple with lawlessness at the border and half a century of mass immigration. Consider the events of the past two years. Child migrants have surged into the United States from Central America, and working-class cities and towns across the country are struggling to absorb them. Before the federal courts stepped in, President Obama signed an executive order shielding roughly half of all unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. from the threat of deportation, a move he had previously suggested was out of bounds. And now the U.S. is experiencing yet another wave of Central American arrivals. Border Patrol officials report that many unauthorized immigrants believe that the U.S. is going to welcome them with open arms, and who can blame them given the president’s rhetoric?
Interesting to see that even the heart of cuckservatism is beginning to sense that all is not right with open borders.

Labels: , ,

112 Comments:

Blogger Jourdan January 05, 2016 11:43 AM  

Anyone who at any point considered Jeb! to have been a serious candidate is by self-admission clueless as to what the European-American middle- and working-class is thinking and, since that is the largest political and economic group in the country, has no right being a pundit.

Anonymous Ain January 05, 2016 11:43 AM  

"I certainly overestimated poor Jeb Bush, whom I wrongly predicted would profit from Trump’s rise."

What's he using for his predictions? Chicken bones?

OpenID basementhomebrewer January 05, 2016 11:51 AM  

All of the pundits should be fired after this election year. Every one of them has continually predicted Trump's downfall. They also were routinely wrong last year about what Putin would do in Ukraine. Heretofore only weathermen were allowed to be wrong so often and keep their jobs.

Blogger Nate Winchester January 05, 2016 11:52 AM  

You sure that's a double down or very tongue in cheek? You cut off the line Ross uses to close the piece:
"(And I’ll see you in the confessional next year.)"
Which, in context of the piece's opening reads:
"EVERY New Year’s, in a spirit of self-examination, I try to catalog my worst blunders from the preceding year."

Blogger Ingot9455 January 05, 2016 11:53 AM  

It's the basic inability to put yourself in another's shoes. The assumption that everyone thinks like you. Or thinks at all in the case of liberals/SJWs.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan January 05, 2016 11:58 AM  

They write what they are paid to write

Anonymous karsten January 05, 2016 11:59 AM  

"All of the pundits should be fired after this election year. Every one of them has continually predicted Trump's downfall."

Pundits' preductions are not about what they really think will happen, but what they want to happen. The cast their wishes as predictions as a tactic, in order to persuade people that this is how they should approach a given matter, since it's how it's going to turn out anyway.

E.g., when a pundit, early on (in July), said that Trump supporters should jump off the Trump boat, because that boat is sinking, it wasn't really that he believed that the boat was sinking at all. Rather, by saying so, he wanted people to think it was sinking and hence jump off.

The prediction is tailored around the policy.

Blogger VD January 05, 2016 12:00 PM  

You sure that's a double down or very tongue in cheek?

Yes. That's the preemptive Gamma "I was only joking" self-defense. He seriously does not expect Trump to win the nomination.

Blogger dc.sunsets January 05, 2016 12:03 PM  

Someone is expected to pay to "school" all these uninvited "guest 'kids.'" I note that I already pay perhaps the highest property taxes in the entire country (nearly 4% of market value, year in and year out.) How, exactly, is pushing the tax-paying backbone of America (the Middle Class) into poverty expected to yield prosperity?

Given how many people's occupations depend on government dependence, perhaps the theory is to open the gates to infinite welfare demand even as demand for Medicare services skyrockets.

Ohhhh, now I get it. Keynesians all think that recessions are just shortfalls in aggregate demand.

Blogger dc.sunsets January 05, 2016 12:06 PM  

Either Trump wins in November or these pundit-clowns will be astonished by who "wins" the next time.

If those who desire to change this pathological course are denied their "hope" (I have no idea if a Trump Administration would deliver on it), when they come back the next time they'll (we'll) be a lot less nice about it.

Anonymous NorthernHamlet January 05, 2016 12:08 PM  

I'm still fairly inclined to think he won't get the nomination due to shenanigans.

Anonymous KoranBurningFaggot January 05, 2016 12:10 PM  

Anyone who at any point considered Jeb! to have been a serious candidate is by self-admission clueless

I estimated him as the republican nominee because the GOPe fielded a dozen zero candidates to funnel the votes to him. I still think Trump might lose if he doesn't have security help monitor voter fraud.

Someone is expected to pay to "school" all these uninvited "guest 'kids.'"

I have seen ads saying they pay over 2grand a month (tax free) for taking in an illegal kid. Lets hope they don't spread TB & Chagas in class.

Blogger Student in Blue January 05, 2016 12:11 PM  

Reihan Salam misses a number of things in regards to immigration anyway. He tries making the case that the problem is wholly about waves of unskilled workers, and that race has absolutely nothing to do with it.

He's at least making the case that immigration isn't a panacea, but there's still that cuckservative streak cringing at the possibility of being called racist.

OpenID izzynutz January 05, 2016 12:16 PM  

#1 - I'm not writing off Yeb! either. The party machine wants him, and that's what counts. I bet my husband $5 18 months ago that the candidates would be Yeb and Hil, and while I'm beginning to have my doubts (maybe Lucy won't pull the football this time), I'm still fairly confident that will be the case.

We will see if the party does something to make Trump jump to a third party, split the Republicans, and give the win to Hil.

Blogger Aeoli Pera January 05, 2016 12:16 PM  

The only Mexicans Douthat ever runs into are the ones who cut his grass.

Blogger Were-Puppy January 05, 2016 12:23 PM  

OT: What's a good way to price a used gun? I've googled and looked around some. I've got a Ruger P95DC and it seems the used prices are more than I paid for it new.

Blogger Sheila4g January 05, 2016 12:25 PM  

Two points - While Trump may well win the nomination, the pundit/chattering classes and political bigwigs are absolutely certain he will not, nay CANNOT, win the election. Re the nomination, I watched online Trump's speech in Mississippi, and noticed a gentleman in a suit behind him. Later read at Conservative Treehouse that the gentleman I noticed was Mitch Tyner, who had been the lawyer for defeated grass-roots candidate Chris McDaniel. Regardless of who contacted whom, that shows political savvy. Tyner is now head of Trump's campaign in Mississippi.

But re-read various publicized opinions or tweets - whether from Obama, that Saudi prince, or any pundit. Even discounting a brokered convention or any of the GOPe's machinations, they are serenely unconcerned that Trump will ever be president. I am no prognosticator, but I expect 2016 to be a really bumpy ride and would not be surprised by anything the Abomination or the globalists do. They will not go gently into the political wasteland.

Second point - as you note, Vox, Salam is from the heart of cuckservatism. He points out the uncontrolled border and yet only briefly mentions "half a century of mass immigration." He deliberately does not note that he is part of that mass immigration, and that it's not merely numbers that concern Americans, but the race of that mass of people. He may be slightly less smug than Fareed Zakharia, but underneath it all he's just as anti-White and convinced of his superior IQ and fitness to replace European Americans.

Blogger Humpty Dumpty #4464 January 05, 2016 12:25 PM  

@14, I'm also jaded. I just don't see how The Donald gets a shot at the presidency as long as he is running for the GOP nomination. 3rd party seems like the only way for him to go.

Blogger August January 05, 2016 12:26 PM  

Perhaps we should hold a funeral for America. Maybe that would help people like Douhat process reality. They just keep holding on to the dream that the republic still exists in some meaningful fashion. Trump can disrupt because he's rich and a television personality- so he can outdo all these lightweights. It is his if he wants it, barring assassination.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan January 05, 2016 12:28 PM  

Cucks, they're part of the problem, solution, hang the cucks

OpenID basementhomebrewer January 05, 2016 12:28 PM  

@16 closed, won, gunbroker auctions are a good start. When I sell my guns I tend to initially post a price towards the high end. If it hasn't had any interest in about a month I'll drop it a little bit and then repeat. I am usually not in a hurry to sell though so you may try a different approach.

Blogger Danby January 05, 2016 12:30 PM  

@16
Armslist.com will give you a fair idea of the going price, if it's common enough to show up there. Other online sites, like gunbroker.com or gunauction.com, have an unfortunate number of collectors and gun shop owners putting the gun up at their unreasonable asking price and leaving it there for months or years.
In print, shotgun news is another good place to check prices

Blogger Ezekiel January 05, 2016 12:35 PM  

To be fair, I'm still amazed that the GOPe hasn't somehow found a way to fuxxor him out the primaries and give the crown over to an appropriate figurehead, will of the voters be damned. If he actually does beat Hillary into the White House and then tries cleaning out the DCe once he gets there, he'll probably end up ruined or dead. No one running a democracy is going to give it all up because of something as trivial as "votes."

Of course, one thing that'll do is convince an awful lot of Americans that there's no point in participating in electoral politics and we might as well move on to politics by other means. In that regard, perhaps Trump truly is a 4th Generation candidate.

Blogger James Dixon January 05, 2016 12:40 PM  

> Trust me: I’m a pundit.

As someone else quoted from @EmpireOfJeff on Twitter a while ago: "You 'conservative' 'pundits' still don't get it: Trump isn't our candidate. He's our murder weapon.And the GOP is our victim. We good, now?"

Blogger kmbr January 05, 2016 12:41 PM  

@10 **Either Trump wins in November or these pundit-clowns will be astonished by who "wins" the next time**

Trump is showing how it's done and as I have said before I only hope someone bigger, badder and meaner is waiting in the wings and taking note.

My fear, however, is this may be the last shot. Have you been out lately and looked around. I mean, really, really looked around. I went to the Costco in my little berg here in Phoenix burbs a few weeks ago, and aside from myself and a few large Mormon families, it was third world en masse--I was a stranger in a strange land. And that's MY Costco, in my completely normal, predominately LDS area--I don't even wanna know what the rest of the country looks like at this point.

Blogger dc.sunsets January 05, 2016 12:47 PM  

I don't even wanna know what the rest of the country looks like at this point.

Sorry, I'll tell you: It looks exactly like the Sam's Club I visited in Cancun, Mexico. No, I'm not exaggerating.

Blogger Alexamenos January 05, 2016 12:48 PM  

I have a bad feeling about things. The gulf between *us* whites and *them* whites is huge and I don't see relations improving.

"I worked night and day for twelve years to prevent the war, but I could not. The North was mad and blind, would not let us govern ourselves, and so the war came." --

-- Jeff Davis, and we know how that worked out.

Blogger James Dixon January 05, 2016 12:48 PM  

Of course, all you really need to know to dismiss Ross Douthat is that he's publishing this as an op-ed for the New York Times.

Blogger James Dixon January 05, 2016 12:50 PM  

> -- Jeff Davis, and we know how that worked out.

Yes, we do. And lessons have been learned. Next time there will be no quarter, and the civilian populations on both sides will be targets, not just one.

Blogger Nick S January 05, 2016 12:54 PM  

Never admit you're wrong. For example, I'm quite certain Nate contracted Ebola before Christmas and would have had blood gushing out of his eye sockets, just as I predicted, but the virus couldn't survive the alcohol therapy. Well done, Nate.

Blogger Gordon January 05, 2016 12:58 PM  

It doesn't matter how much money Jeb has. All of the finest consultants and precinct organizers aren't worth anything if they can't put enough bodies into the booths or caucus sites. I think that's what these folks don't get.

I watched the Ronulans take over the precinct caucuses in Minnesota four years ago. It doesn't take many to do that in some years. They got their folks elected to the chair and treasurer positions, all the way up to congressional district level. Then, after the convention, they vanished without a trace.

Jesse Ventura did not win a majority of voters; he won just enough to beat the other two guys.

Anonymous KoranBurningFaggot January 05, 2016 1:04 PM  

I've googled and looked around some. I've got a Ruger P95DC and it seems the used prices are more than I paid for it new.

If you bought it before bath house barry was elected remember the dollar lost 25% of its value his first term. But still I couldn't believe mosins went over $100.

Blogger dc.sunsets January 05, 2016 1:08 PM  

and the civilian populations on both sides will be targets, not just one.

That one was political. The 20th century saw war driven by ideology, which is deeper. The next one may be driven by genetics, and people may be targeted to the level of DNA.

Wars of extermination, indeed.

Anonymous Circle Key January 05, 2016 1:11 PM  

Jeb Bush will be the Republican Presidential nominee.

Also, the truth about the Oregon terrorists exercising their white privilege:

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/136619-us-politics-the-resistible-rise-of-donald-j-trump/&page=13

Blogger dc.sunsets January 05, 2016 1:13 PM  

But still I couldn't believe mosins went over $100.

I don't know if I believe it, but there appear plenty of auctions on gunbroker where used pistols go for the same price as I can get new. Possibly that's a geographic artifact; in some places LGS's don't discount at all.

Blogger Student in Blue January 05, 2016 1:15 PM  

@34
Also, bald assertions made by people who don't know anything about the situation:

There, fixed that for you.

Anonymous GreyS January 05, 2016 1:21 PM  

the failure of the Republican establishment to grapple with lawlessness at the border and half a century of mass immigration

They are clueless about how mad people are and how The Long Betrayal by the Republicans has turned people against them.

He will win unless they kill him. Not just the nomination but the whole enchilada.

Blogger praetorian January 05, 2016 1:29 PM  

"How can that be? No one I know voted for Nixon!"

NYT faggots gonna faggot, that ol-timey NYT faggoty faggot way.

Scott Adams on Trump.

What an absolute gift this election is going to be for all of us: it might be the funniest thing to happen in america since The Great Society.

Anonymous #8601 Jean Valjean January 05, 2016 1:31 PM  

The electronic markets are still quite pessimistic on Trump. This one has him behind both Ruby and Cruise.

Blogger jimmy_the_freak January 05, 2016 1:42 PM  

@7 a good example was just on Fox News. A female pundit (didn't catch her name) just aid that she still think Kasich will make a comeback. I didn't know he was still in the race!

Blogger White Knight Leo #0368 January 05, 2016 1:53 PM  

I actually really, really liked Adams's analysis of Trump.

Blogger Conan the Cimmerian January 05, 2016 1:58 PM  

Reihan Salam

Blogger John Wright January 05, 2016 2:33 PM  

Vox the "Trust me, I'm a pundit" is clearly a flourish of self-deprecating humor. He is not doubling down, he is sheepishly, albeit with tongue in cheek, doing what you say he is not doing, and admitting wrong.

He still thinks Bush has a chance, though, and there you are right. That is crazy.

If a staunch Republican like me thinks Bush is a sell out and a RINO, and will sit home on election day if he is out nominee, I cannot imagine what the Libertarians and moderate Republicans and Millennials are thinking.

Trump is looking like a more and more attractive candidate to me, despite that he is an insider and no friend to conservatism, merely because he is able to provoke Bush Derangement Syndrome 2.0 in the establishment.

Without knowing anything about him, he earns my affection for the same reason Gamergate earned my affection:

I like who your enemies are.

Blogger bob k. mando January 05, 2016 3:04 PM  

34. Circle Key January 05, 2016 1:11 PM
Jeb Bush will be the Republican Presidential nominee.



indeed. as *we* have noted on multiple occasions here, it's quite possible that the GOPe will broker the convention and screw Trump just like they screwed Ron Paul ( not that Paul was ever close to a plurality ) last time.

however, the base is, i think, done playing pattycake. if they fuck Trump that blatantly ( Jeb has already openly proclaimed that he would win the nom "without the base" ) i can't imagine the Republican party still existing in ten years.

Republican voters are getting REALLY sick of getting fucked over by their leaders.


what is absolutely NOT going to happen is Jeb getting the nom via voter popularity.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-gop-primary#!

let's look at who votes will go to as more drop out.

Gilmore i don't know anything about, but he's polling at ~0%, so irrelevant.

Santorum voters are not going to vote for Jeb, 1.1%

Kasich was the backup establishment candidate, all of his will go to Jeb, 1.8%

Huckabee is an anti-establishment candidate, 1.9%

Fiorina has never held office before, anti-establishment as all get out, 2.3%

Rand is his father's standard bearer, anti-establishment as all get out, 2.6%

Christie is, the fat people's establishmentarian? a lot of them will go for Jeb, 3.7%

Bush himself is only the 2nd highest rated establishment guy, 5.9%

Carson has never held office, anti-establishment but token black, so many of his followers will slink back to an establishment approved candidate, 9.1%

Rubio is now the establishment frontrunner, as a pro-immigration token minority will probably grab most of Carson's support, 12.1%

Cruz is anti-establishment as all get out, doesn't play the race card for his own benefit, 17.4%

Trump, the clear front runner on the field is within the margin of error of a 20 point lead on 2nd place, has certainly doubled up on second with a wholly anti-establishment message, 36.9


establishment support ~= 28.4%
anti-establishment support ~= 66.4%

that's a pretty dominant plurality there, even though i rounded down on the antis and up on the establishment guys.

Blogger bob k. mando January 05, 2016 3:08 PM  

i should have just said
"pro-pedo Hastert voters who know how to get things done in DC" vs everybody else in the
Republican party

Blogger DBSFF January 05, 2016 3:14 PM  

I'm with Vox. His little "trust me: i'm a pundit" might have been self deprecating but the context makes it clear that he still thinks he'll be right in the end.

And there's the fact that he would never admit that his grasp of the subject matter required for his job is less than desirable.

Blogger praetorian January 05, 2016 3:15 PM  

provoke Bush Derangement Syndrome 2.0 in the establishment

Absolutely. Bigger, better, funnier, more unhinged. Elections are for trolling at this point. The field collapse of Our National Punditry into a Ad Hitlerum Singularity will be epically funny.

We've been trolled now for sixty years, and it's time: The Empire Trolls Back.

Blogger bob k. mando January 05, 2016 3:21 PM  

43. John Wright January 05, 2016 2:33 PM
he is sheepishly, albeit with tongue in cheek, doing what you say he is not doing, and admitting wrong.



'fraid i have to disagree, John.

IF he were admitting he was wrong
THEN he would not still be predicting a legitimate Bush win.

at this point, it's clear to any retard that THAT is not going to happen.

but he's still predicting it.

the only way for Douthat to make that prediction and not be completely shameless is if he's on the payroll for the Bush campaign.

in which case, he's merely staying bought. honor among thieves and all that.

Blogger White Knight Leo #0368 January 05, 2016 3:21 PM  

My whole family is starting to lean in a Trump direction now.

Blogger Jourdan January 05, 2016 3:30 PM  

Analyzing Trump's run is not the same thing as analyzing who will be the next President. I have few believers here, but I am confident after conducting a district-by-district review of the demographics and imputing to the racial groups therein their historical average vote for Ds and Rs, that there is zero way for any Republican to win the Presidency.

The demographics have changed that much. European-Americans could vote 60-40 R and they would still be out-voted.

So, while interesting as a phenomena, and as helpful as it has been in breaking the ice and moving the window of acceptable political discourse, the bottom line is the same: if European-American people want their country back, they're going to have to seize it by any means necessary.

Because the days of winning elections are over, for good.

Anonymous Kansas Wing Man January 05, 2016 3:37 PM  

Detractors often comment that Trump's support comes only from bigots and racists. What they fail to grasp is that a large portion of the US, including a growing number of Democrats (both white and black), are realizing that the elitist masters of the Democratic plantation have been actively destroying the cultural and political foundations of the country. Those voicing support for Trump may not even VOTE for Trump, but are sending a clear message to both parties and that their time is going to come to a close, either by measured change or violence.

As for me, I will watch the election and if political shenanigans arise, then I will vote for what ever candidate will push the "Reset" button.

Time will tell.

Anonymous ArmyStu January 05, 2016 3:42 PM  

Every democrat I know is hoping and praying Teump is the nominee. It will result in a spectacular victory for the Democratic nominee and may even result in more down ticket victories for Democrats.

His problem is that he brings vapidness to a new level. And this comes out even while other GOP candidates treat Trump with kit gloves. What happens when his lack of knowledge and his irrational and childish personality is exposed by someone who wants to beat him to a pulp? It's gonna be a blood bath.

Lesson: no matter how angry, don't support a child for president.

Blogger August January 05, 2016 3:58 PM  

Remember this whole thread began because a conservative pundit couldn't conceive of a Trump candidacy. Every democrat you know is similar to this conservative pundit, because they, like him, have a world view convenient to their own ideology. The blue collar democrats are likely to cross over and vote for Trump faster than they did for Reagan. Part of Trump's rise is precisely that he is not like the other Republicans. Rank and file Dems know that too. I can't imagine a union guy voting for Hilary.
Of course, the reason why this coming isn't because anyone is angry and supporting a child. This is happening because both parties have been pushing candidates have pushed candidates who are expressely unconstitutional. Instead of having a society with some sense of justice, we have a society where a lot of people are being treated unjustly- and they are not being listened to. This eventually leads to war, and much worse than Trump.

Blogger Danby January 05, 2016 3:58 PM  

Shut up Stu. No one cares what you think.

Blogger Trump/Automatthew 2016 January 05, 2016 4:00 PM  

Every democrat I know is hoping and praying Teump is the nominee. It will result in a spectacular victory for the Democratic nominee and may even result in more down ticket victories for Democrats.

Rule 1.

Anonymous ArmyStu January 05, 2016 4:01 PM  

Danby,

Of course they care what they say. Don't be ridiculous. And let me say on behalf of Dems everywhere....please promote Trunp for the GOP nomination.

Blogger Trump/Automatthew 2016 January 05, 2016 4:02 PM  

His problem is that he brings vapidness to a new level. ... his lack of knowledge and his irrational and childish personality

Rule 3.

Blogger John Wright January 05, 2016 4:02 PM  

@ 46

He is certainly expressing the hope that Trump will not win, which means that he has lost all his cachet as a pundit in my eyes, at least.

I do not know how closely the Dread Ilk follow the 'inside baseball' of Republican politics (since, after all, I assume any minion of a Dark Lord is favors an Umbramonarchic form of government) but we rank and file Republicans hate, hate, hate our leadership, and we want to use Trump to meat-ax our Quisling leadership into oblivion.

I held my nose and voted for Romney, even though he was the worst of the potential nominees, and I had for McCain, and I had for Dole, one non-Constitutional non-Conservative Republican half-Dem after another after another. Dole could not even defeat Second Term Slick Willie and his crooked frankfurter o' love.

No more. I have run out of clothespins for my nose.

Blogger John Wright January 05, 2016 4:04 PM  

@48
I stand corrected and retract the comment.

Blogger Student in Blue January 05, 2016 4:05 PM  

Oh look, little lady ArmyStu is finally back after running away from a debate.

Did you finally learn how to construct an argument without using an ad hominem? Have you finally learned how to Google and read sources rather than second-hand scare quotes?

I'm not holding my breath.

Anonymous GreyS January 05, 2016 4:11 PM  

Every democrat I know is hoping and praying Teump is the nominee.

Hahaha suuuuuure. Most Dems are almost manically frightened of the possibility. They know Hillary can't stand much scrutiny and that Trump is the one Repub nominee who would swing for the fences on her.

To lose to Hillary one must be scared to go against the machine. Trump is not scared whatsoever.

Anonymous ArmyStu January 05, 2016 4:17 PM  

Grey,
No Trump is not scared. However Republicans who understand demographics and elections sure are. The funniest part of a Teump nomination will be watching both democrats and Republiczns endorse Hillary.

Blogger bob k. mando January 05, 2016 4:17 PM  

50. Jourdan January 05, 2016 3:30 PM
but I am confident after conducting a district-by-district review of the demographics and imputing to the racial groups therein their historical average vote for Ds and Rs



well, duh, there's your flaw.

black people like Trump, certainly FAR more than a Bush or McCain. i've seen signs in black neighborhoods in my town that say "At last, real Trump red meat!"

considering that blacks typically vote ~98% Dem, the possibility of Trump pulling a double digit percentage of the black vote blows up your prediction all by itself.


52. ArmyStu January 05, 2016 3:42 PM
His problem is that he brings vapidness to a new level
...
with kit gloves.



you're killing me with irony.


more to the point, that noted bastion of right wing propaganda, the New York Times acknowledges Trump's support from minorities and registered Democrats in this Dec 31 story:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/31/upshot/donald-trumps-strongest-supporters-a-certain-kind-of-democrat.html?_r=1

Blogger praetorian January 05, 2016 4:19 PM  

His problem is that he brings vapidness to a new level.

He is vapid. And vaps and he vaps and he vaps until he wins.

Get in, faggot.

Blogger Tim Sanders January 05, 2016 4:21 PM  

Obama is hiding a dark secret that just came out and this effects you!
http://tinyurl.com/hy844s7

Blogger bob k. mando January 05, 2016 4:27 PM  

59. John Wright January 05, 2016 4:04 PM
@48 I stand corrected and retract the comment.



*bows to John* well met, sirrah. you've given me much fine meat for me to chew over intellectually and i'm sure you will again.


you see, ArmyStu? this is the actual form of a debate.

assertion made, facts cited, logic applied, assertion refuted and then retracted.

you might try it sometime.

Blogger Student in Blue January 05, 2016 4:36 PM  

Warning, that TinyURL posted by "Tim Sanders" redirects to something full of ads.

Blogger Student in Blue January 05, 2016 4:42 PM  

That is, it's an affiliate program that he's trying to get people to "click" for him and probably make money for himself. Scummy.

Anonymous ArmyStu January 05, 2016 4:46 PM  

"You see, ArmyStu? this is the actual form of a debate."

Are you referencing yesterday when Vox chose to run from the debate. Holy Cow, move on.

Blogger Salt January 05, 2016 4:47 PM  

@69. ArmyStu January 05, 2016 4:46 PM

"You see, ArmyStu? this is the actual form of a debate."

Are you referencing yesterday when Vox chose to run from the debate. Holy Cow, move on.


Liar.

Blogger Jourdan January 05, 2016 4:51 PM  

The great thing about this time right now is how wide open the veil is being ripped. Mass rapes in Germany on New Year's Eve, committed by the Vibrants (r), and the press and government officials are completely demonstrating to everyone that their past concern about rape and "rape culture" was a complete pose, usable only when European or European-American men could be attacked with it, even if the story had to be made up (NY Times, Rolling Stone, etc.).

Anyone who wishes to see right now, may do so. It's all right there in front of anyone to see.

Blogger SciVo January 05, 2016 4:57 PM  

Jourdan, a trend is only a trend until it ends. We're looking at an electoral singularity with Trump. All the old rules go out the window, including how much he can win with minorities. I predict that his polling with blacks and Hispanics will actually trend up over time, even including Democrats. Look at the kind of leaders they choose back home. I agree with Scott Adams that we're looking at a Trump landslide.

Blogger Chris Mallory January 05, 2016 5:03 PM  

@44
"Cruz is anti-establishment as all get out,"

Cheerleading for big war, Israel, and the big banks is "anti-establishment"?

Cruz is the establishment's stealth candidate. He mouths a few platitudes, charges a few windmills and in the end doesn't change one thing. But he makes a few suckers think he is on their side instead of Goldman Sachs.

Blogger SciVo January 05, 2016 5:07 PM  

Jourdan, it amazes me how they can simultaneously push fake campus rape culture and deny real third-world rape culture. The cognitive dissonance must be crippling.

Blogger Christopher January 05, 2016 5:10 PM  

It appears the current cucksensus is that Trump is somehow only or primarily popular because the Republican Establishment failed to grapple with or seriously deal with open borders and mass immigration.

Like, 'ok sheep, you have a point, we hear you. Now go away and let us handle it.'

Blogger Student in Blue January 05, 2016 5:12 PM  

ArmyStu, do you have no concept of what an assertion is? Because that's literally the only thing you did in your "debate" with Vox. Even after trumpeting your mighty dialectic, all you could do was, in effect, say "NO YOU".

What massive intellect you must have.

Hey, let's have a debate! I'll start:
You're a pedophile.

Behold my impeccable logic and argument!

Blogger bob k. mando January 05, 2016 5:13 PM  

69. ArmyStu January 05, 2016 4:46 PM
Are you referencing yesterday when Vox chose to run from the debate. Holy Cow, move on.



you've never once refuted ( that is, cite facts or critique logic ) of anything Vox has said.

all you do is say, 'nuh uh.'

well, Vox has the last retort in that thread. since you never once cited any fact for us to examine, i guess whomever lasts longest, wins?

and that was Vox.

so, you're the intellectual equivalent of a connoisseur of coprophilia. and you've lost. comprehensively, given that you're lying about the situation RIGHT NOW.

*you* are the data in support of Vox's hypothesis.



72. SciVo January 05, 2016 4:57 PM
Jourdan, a trend is only a trend until it ends.


yep. all up through Reconstruction and into the early 1900s, blacks voted almost as significantly for Republicans ( they did free the slaves, you know? ) as they do now for Demoncrats.

assuming trends continue forever is idiotic. all progressives used to vote Whig. then they voted Republican and the Whig party doesn't exist any more.

the problem is calling the turn in the trend line. which is usually impossible to do. the Soviet Union was permanent and inevitable and we just had to learn how to live cheek by jowl with hardline Communists ... right up until the moment when the USSR didn't exist any more.

Blogger bob k. mando January 05, 2016 5:22 PM  

73. Chris Mallory January 05, 2016 5:03 PM
Cheerleading for big war, Israel, and the big banks is "anti-establishment"?



i never said *i* was for Cruz. hell, i'm the nutjob who keeps pointing out that there's no way in hell someone who held Canadian citizenship as recently as 2013 can meet the Constitutional "natural born citizen" requirement.

but Cruz campaigns as anti-E AND Rush Limbaugh keeps characterizing him as the anti-E who scares the Establishment pedophiles "more than Trump".

your average Republican voter ( who is also pro-Israel ) thinks Cruz is anti-E, and that's the basis of his campaign.

i'm discussing *perceptions* and how the voters are likely to turn once the small fry get flushed down the toilet bowl in the primary and general elections.

and while i won't deny that Cruz is for a lot of Establishment crap, you have to admit that he's worlds better than some smush like Rubio who's happy french kissing upChuck Schumer to import more illegals.

Anonymous Brick Hardslab January 05, 2016 5:24 PM  

Pundit is a great gig if you can get it. Pontificate and be wrong most of the time then never, ever have to face the consequences.

Blogger James Dixon January 05, 2016 5:25 PM  

> ...but I am confident after conducting a district-by-district review of the demographics and imputing to the racial groups therein their historical average vote for Ds and Rs, that there is zero way for any Republican to win the Presidency.

The historical averages won't hold in this election.

> Every democrat I know is hoping and praying Teump is the nominee.

They were hoping an praying for Reagan in 1980 too. Where did that get them?

> The funniest part of a Teump nomination will be watching both democrats and Republiczns endorse Hillary.

Oh we agree completely. It's so nice of traitors to identify themselves for you. It makes things so much easier later on.

> Are you referencing yesterday when Vox chose to run from the debate. Holy Cow, move on.

"SJW's always lie."

Blogger James Dixon January 05, 2016 5:29 PM  

> I agree with Scott Adams that we're looking at a Trump landslide.

Since his opponent would be Hillary, I agree. But I'm nowhere near as certain of that as I'd like to be. It all depends on how many graveyards turn out to vote.

> Cruz is the establishment's stealth candidate.

Again, that's more true than I would like. I'd prefer Paul or Trump. But I'd vote for him if he won the nomination. He's that much better than the remainder of the field.

Blogger bob k. mando January 05, 2016 5:33 PM  

Jeb has a master plan to regain the lead in popular support and put Trump where he belongs ...

woo Lindsay Graham supporters? and don't finish lower than FIFTH in Iowa?

there is no facepalm large enough ...

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/02/us/politics/jeb-bush-presidential-campaign.html?_r=3

and this is the idiot that Douthat is sure is going to win the primary?

hokey dokey.

Blogger Salt January 05, 2016 5:35 PM  

Since his opponent would be Hillary

That has me stymied. The FBI is still looking into her shenanigans. It hasn't been a, "Nothing to see here, move along" episode, indicating she has open-field running.

Anonymous ArmyStu January 05, 2016 5:37 PM  

"ArmyStu, do you have no concept of what an assertion is? Because that's literally the only thing you did in your "debate" with Vox."

This is not the right thread for this. So I'll only point out that there was no debate. I laid out the propositions and Vox responded with, "they do too always lie," signaling he chose to revert to his position of not using logic or dialectic with one he believed was a SJW. And so we ended up where we began. Vox obviously didn't want to debate. I took the hint.

Blogger bob k. mando January 05, 2016 5:38 PM  

83. ArmyStu January 05, 2016 5:37 PM
Vox obviously didn't want to debate.



you obviously don't ever intend to provide one.

Blogger Nick S January 05, 2016 5:43 PM  

Since guns are never off topic...I went by the Academy, shortly after the gun grabber in chief's announcement/cryfest/emotional straw-man plea, to peruse the guns just in case they had a deal on a M&P45 and couldn't get close to the counter. It was packed 3 deep with men and women looking to buy guns. I've never seen it like that before.

Blogger Student in Blue January 05, 2016 5:57 PM  

This is not the right thread for this. So I'll only point out that there was no debate. I laid out the propositions and Vox responded with, "they do too always lie," signaling he chose to revert to his position of not using logic or dialectic with one he believed was a SJW. And so we ended up where we began. Vox obviously didn't want to debate. I took the hint.

You don't start a debate with a proposition and nothing BUT a proposition. You can't start a debate with nothing but a proposition.

And what Vox did wasn't a "hint" that he didn't want a debate, he did exactly what you did and only gave a proposition.

Anonymous ArmyStu January 05, 2016 6:05 PM  

Student:

No, he simply repeated the proposition: SJW always lie.

And by the way, is it possible for someone to always lie?

Blogger bob k. mando January 05, 2016 6:05 PM  

86. Student in Blue January 05, 2016 5:57 PM
he did exactly what you did and only gave a proposition.



that's another law;
SJWs never adhere to the standards which they demand of everyone else.

hypocrites, they are.

ArmyStu being our first data point.

Blogger Matamoros January 05, 2016 6:09 PM  

Donald Trump is not right or left, libertarian, or whatever. He is simply what we used to call a Great American.

God's man for our hour

G

Blogger Matamoros January 05, 2016 6:16 PM  

For President Trump's head of Homeland Security
I nominate
Col. Tom Kratman

Blogger James Dixon January 05, 2016 7:04 PM  

> And by the way, is it possible for someone to always lie?

Unless they say, "I'm lying", yes.

Blogger Student in Blue January 05, 2016 7:12 PM  

No, he simply repeated the proposition: SJW always lie.

Yes, and...?

You stated a proposition, he stated a proposition.

Are you mentally challenged? I already addressed this point.

Anonymous Desiderius January 05, 2016 7:29 PM  

"Yes. That's the preemptive Gamma "I was only joking" self-defense."

I don't believe this to be the case.

Have you read Douthat's Privilege, Vox?

He made his name creating the American Scene blog (with Salam) that was ahead of the curve in suggesting that R's focus on working class concerns, such as immigration.

Blogger clk January 05, 2016 7:30 PM  

@89 "Donald Trump is not right or left, libertarian, or whatever. He is simply what we used to call a Great American."

I dont know if I would go as far as great american but I do have to admit he is winning me over. In my opinion the deal with Trump is that he represents a chance .. the rest of the field, both sides, are pretty much bought and paid for. Trump may be a little crazy .. but within that crazy something might happen for the good.

@85 "It was packed 3 deep with men and women looking to buy guns. I've never seen it like that before."

Same experience on Sat at Cabellas - my som went there looking for a Glock 19 gen 4 and there were 30+ men their waiting for the State background check -- some 8 hrs -- the counter guy said that with the holiday and the low staff at the state that most of these would not get their background checks today... Same thing at the smaller gun stores .. lots of new people buying guns.... and there are so many pink guns ..its not just men buying these.

@82 "That has me stymied. The FBI is still looking into her shenanigans. It hasn't been a, "Nothing to see here, move along" episode, indicating she has open-field running."

I think we will find that Hillary is going to be eliminated by this -- or worse, she isn't, she gets elected and we spend 4 years on the impeachment and nothing else gets done. That's why I wonder who might be her VP choices.

@80 "The historical averages won't hold in this election."

As much as I still think Trump has a math problem .. nothing so far has really made sense with his rise so you may be right ...and what ever happens, he certainly would be a entertaining candidate...and it does feel similar to Reagan's rise ..

Blogger Danby January 05, 2016 7:34 PM  

@Stu
Vox has stated his case repeatedly, over the last several months, on this blog and in his fucking book. he is under no obligation to you. If you want to argue a contrary position, either present your critique of his position, or present your own counter-argument. That's how this works.

Or don't bother because no one here even has the least respect for each other, let alone a surly and not-very-bright sprat who thinks, for some reason, his say so is a definitive argument.

Not only are you not tall enough for this ride, you're not even in the line for this ride. You're in the line for the porta-potti. And judging by the shit trickling down your leg, it looks like it's too late even for that.

Anonymous ArmyStu January 05, 2016 7:36 PM  

James.

I'm positive you either don't believe that or you are lying for effect. In either case, never mind.

Student,
You aren't understanding what happened. And it's not important that you do.

Anonymous ArmyStu January 05, 2016 7:44 PM  

"Vox has stated his case repeatedly, over the last several months, on this blog and in his fucking book. he is under no obligation to you"

No, he is not under any obligation. But he volunteered to debate anything so I chose a statement he wrote in his post: SJW always lie. I repeated the statement I wanted to debate. Indicated my opposition and discovered he wanted merely to repeat the assertion. Clearly he wasn't serious. Nor by the way is he serious when he makes this assertion as he knows it isn't possible. Nor is it possible to begin to prove. A more accurate statement would be "SJW sometimes lie". But then that is likely true for most people. So, as I stated above, it isn't important at this point because I won that particular debate before it began.

Anonymous Hezekiah Garrett January 05, 2016 7:49 PM  

@Stu

You are obviously deranged, between confusing a proposition with an argument, and thinking shopping at Salvation Army makes you a veteran.

But I used to have a beagle who spent half his life with a ruffles bag over his head, so I have a soft spot for ya!

Blogger bob k. mando January 05, 2016 7:57 PM  

96. ArmyStu January 05, 2016 7:36 PM
You aren't understanding what happened. And it's not important that you do.



what happened is that you're trying to do a Python skit.

what's not important is whether or not you understand that you are recapitulating 50 year old humor.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQFKtI6gn9Y

Anonymous Desiderius January 05, 2016 8:02 PM  

Bob Mando,

"yep. all up through Reconstruction and into the early 1900s, blacks voted almost as significantly for Republicans ( they did free the slaves, you know? ) as they do now for Demoncrats."

Willie Mays' full name is William Howard Mays, named for William Howard Taft.

It's the rampant effeminacy of R candidates currently that turns off blacks and young women. Trump is definitely not effeminate.

Anonymous Desiderius January 05, 2016 8:07 PM  

John Wright @ 59:

"I stand corrected and retract the comment."

Your first impression is closer to the truth of the matter.

He wasn't kidding. He revised his opinion from dismissing Trump out of hand to conceding he could win, though he judges it unlikely, which is also subject to revision as new facts come in.

Not Gamma.

And Bush could follow the McCain path from 2008. Harry Truman's been president, for God's sake. Stranger things have happened.

Blogger James Dixon January 05, 2016 8:34 PM  

> I'm positive you either don't believe that...

Don't believe that it's possible for a person to always lie? I lived through 8 years of Bill Clinton as president. Why wouldn't I believe it? He was a living example.

> ...or you are lying for effect.

SJW's always project.

> In either case, never mind.

Don't worry, I won't.

Blogger praetorian January 05, 2016 8:37 PM  

Vox

run from debate

Same sentence, no negative. My sides.

Blogger Azimus January 05, 2016 8:49 PM  

VD:
but he's still entirely confident that Trump can't win the nomination


I would've said 5 minutes ago that I didn't think he'd win the nomination either. But since he is polling highest of all the candidates among women - which shocks me - I have to admit I think he has an excellent chance. It's amazing how a quick dip into the google can challenge your base assumptions...

But winning the nomination is not winning the general election. Can he win a general election? I don't know what to look up to get a feel either way.

Blogger Trump/Automatthew 2016 January 05, 2016 9:17 PM  

I searched for anagrams of "ArmyStu" and I got back this list:

* Smut Raygun
* Ram Lust
* Rape Truss
* Smarmy Tad
* Kiddie Diddler
* Sarah Silverman
* SSRI Failure Case
* Stephen Fry's Wedding Night Tears

Anonymous johnc January 05, 2016 9:56 PM  

The size of the crowds at the Trump rallies have been ridiculous. There is clearly no other candidate generating this much enthusiasm.

The electoral college has become tremendously challenging for the Republicans though. They usually start off with a swath of unwinnable big states like CA, NY, and probably now FL too. The demographics have not improved since 2012, though Trump is much better with women and minorities than Republicans have been since at least the Reagan days.

It's going to be interesting but as many have pointed out, the real story behind the big story is that a significant number of people have gotten fed up and they are motivated to express it. And it sounds like a similar plot is unfolding across the pond in Europe. Social upheaval has never required a majority.

Blogger Joshua Sinistar January 05, 2016 10:49 PM  

Trump is the Last Chance the System will get to do the right thing by American citizens. I expect the Stupid Party to run as many candidates as possible to keep Trump from getting a majority in the caucuses. Then the slimeballs like Rove can broker the convention to pool the votes for another system turd like Jeb Boosh and his Motel Six wife. Fuck the Party of Lincoln. These new Whigs are totally irrelevant anyway. I doubt there will even be an election without Trump. I expect Bombhatta to be assassinated this Spring when the weather favors chimping out. White Americans are gonna be ready and willing to blow 'em away after Trump gets dumped. When FEDGOV tries to saves their pets, they are going to burn down.

Blogger praetorian January 05, 2016 11:24 PM  

and probably now FL too

Yeah. And Texas is gone within a decade. Game, set, match: no Republican (and certainly no conservative third party) will win the presidency for the remainder of the existence of the United States.

The US is a lost cause, all we can do now is prepare for the collapse and have some lulz along the way. Trump delivers the lulz, and he might make it marginally easier to secure a future homeland for our people. A Hillary presidency could be just as good, but for different reasons:

"I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Miss Abedin."

So rejoice and be merry: our cup overflows.

OpenID sigbouncer January 05, 2016 11:27 PM  

Trump has an extremely loyal base of supporters that will back him to the end. Between 30-40% is where he currently is polling across the country. Trump will win in a two party race as well as third party candidate. Trump's wide ranging appeal reaches both the Independent voters and Democrats.

@97 Yes AmySue "always" and "never" are two words that rarely mean what they are in a "literal" sense. This still doesn't change the fact that you're a sheep blasting dung hoarder. Try reading the definition of rhetoric. Great writers are masters of it.

rhetoric - the art of speaking or writing effectively: the art of effective or persuasive speaking or writing, especially the use of figures of speech and other compositional techniques.

Anonymous kjj January 06, 2016 1:14 AM  

@50

| I am confident after conducting a district-by-district review of the demographics and imputing to the racial groups therein their historical average vote

This is the thinking that caused the meltdown in 2008.

"We researched the historic default rates on mortgages, and have developed tranched SPVs that can never lose money..."

Blogger CM January 06, 2016 11:05 AM  

But since he is polling highest of all the candidates among women - which shocks me - I have to admit I think he has an excellent chance. It's amazing how a quick dip into the google can challenge your base assumptions...

Is this why a "Trump is anti-breastfeeding" story is floating on social media?

And I know this because a lesbian shared it...

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