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Tuesday, February 02, 2016

Iowa: Cruz 28, Trump 24, Rubio 23

First, congratulations to Farmer Tom, who got the order correct. Second, and unexpectedly, the big news isn't on the Republican side, but on the Democratic one, as Bernie Sanders shocked the Clinton campaign by effectively fighting Hillary to a draw.

Third, the real score is this: Cruz 8, Trump 7, Rubio 7, Carson 3. That's how many delegates were awarded.

The only real surprise on the Republican side is that Rubio did much better than anyone expected, including the pollsters. While the media narrative is that Trump is done and dusted, they've been saying the exact same thing since last August, so that's entirely irrelevant. Given that the headline two days ago was "Donald Trump reclaims lead in latest Iowa Poll", it should be obvious that he was never the favorite in Iowa, and indeed, it looks rather like the GOP and the media colluded to try to make a result that would have been considered beyond Trump's reach six months ago appear like a disappointing, campaign-destroying failure. As for the record turnout on the Republican side, I suspect it happened for much the same reason it did in the Hugos last year; to stop the interloper.

The only serious candidate who is done now is Jeb, and it appears the establishment will be lining up behind Rubio in his place. Jeb himself will probably follow suit after New Hampshire. I think Cruz will ultimately be the real GOPe candidate as he is the more formidable of the two Cubans. It's now a three-man race; what would throw a real twist into it is if Trump can win Ben Carson's support. Forget Trump-Cruz, the most politically effective combination would be Trump-Carson.

Think about it. Trump's two main weaknesses with Republicans is religion and character. Besides being black, Carson's two greatest strengths are religion and character. And Trump is already popular among blacks due to his big-man swagger, so if I'm Trump, I'm getting together with Carson and working out a deal to be announced after New Hampshire, but before South Carolina.

And if I can see it, I expect Trump can see it too.

Now onto New Hampshire, where it's going to be interesting to see how the Iowa results affect the Democratic primary. Sanders is going to win, but how will it affect the race if he crushes Hillary there?

One last thing: say what you will about Trump, but he makes the campaign about 200 percent more interesting. I met him back in 1988 at the Republican convention in New Orleans and he's very likable. What seems blustery and over-the-top on camera comes off as more expansive and charming in person. Wherever he is, there is a lot of laughter, and not all of it is obsequious. The man is genuinely funny. I mean, who else would end a concession speech like this?

“I don’t know who’s going to win between Bernie and Hillary. I don’t know what’s going to happen with Hillary, she’s got other problems, maybe bigger than the problems she’s got, in terms of nominations, but we’ve had so many different indications, and polls that we beat her, and we beat her easily. And we will go on to get the Republican nomination, and we will go on to easily beat Hillary, or Bernie, or whoever the hell they throw up there. Iowa, we love you. We thank you. You’re special. We will be back many, many times. In fact, I think I might come here and buy a farm, I love it.”

And that's why the American public loves Trump and the establishment fears him. You just can't be entirely sure he won't actually go and do it.

Labels:

230 Comments:

1 – 200 of 230 Newer› Newest»
Anonymous PhillipGeorge©2016 February 02, 2016 3:49 AM  

just so long as he doesn't reach for halal certification I'll buy eggs from that farm. "Haram Farm Fresh Produce, direct to the public"

Anonymous trk February 02, 2016 3:57 AM  

Amazing how Foxnews pushes the immigration narrative w Rubio. Gushing on and on about his 3rd place finish. But w Trump it's that he is a total loser w 2nd place. They even showed an old tweet from trump about how people forget the person in 2nd place. Loved that trumps speech appeared to be from the heart. Short. Sweet. To the point. Cruz did about an hour long boring speech from index cards w even a shout out to Israel.

Blogger FP February 02, 2016 4:09 AM  

Yeah, that concession speech is great.

http://www.breitbart.com/video/2016/02/01/trump-honored-with-second-place-finish-vows-hell-win-nomination-and-whoever-the-hell-dems-nominate/

Blogger Aeoli Pera February 02, 2016 4:31 AM  

The only serious candidate who is done now is Jeb, and it appears the establishment will be lining up behind Rubio in his place. Jeb himself will probably follow suit after New Hampshire.

If I had bankrolled Jeb, I'd be asking for a refund about now.

Blogger W.LindsayWheeler February 02, 2016 4:35 AM  

Cruz is not a Natural Born Citizen. You have to "at birth" be an American citizen with BOTH parents being American citizens. Cruz was born in Canada and Canadian Law dictates his citizenship. His mother should have filed a particular form at the consulate but she didn't.

This is the most important election ever. If we do not deport, if we do not stop immigration, if there is no wall, America will disappear. Immigration is the single most important aspect of this campaign. If it ain't Trump, I ain't votin' for nobody else. Cruz and Rubio are both ineligible to run. This just shows the total vacuity of the "Evangelical Christians" and the supposed "conservatives" in Iowa. That these retards vote in foreigners instead of the only patriotic WASP!

To understand the errors of immigration please see "Unmasking the hidden agenda of the 'Welcome Michigan” immigrant program"
https://www.academia.edu/19949517/Unmasking_the_hidden_agenda

Anonymous Haxo Angmark February 02, 2016 4:54 AM  

remarkable. Trump produced c. 60,000 new Republiscam caucus voters...yet most of them - according to the "official returns" - chose one or another open borders/free trade Zionist warmonger Cuban Cuck. Let me quote Comrade Stalin just one more time:

"it's not who votes that counts...it's who counts the votes"

and in the - now unlikely - circumstance that Trump does arrive at the Convention with a majority of delegates, he will be stopped by the Talmudic "must have won 8 states by more than 50%" Rule. I say again, White people,

"you are not going to vote your way out of the Judeo-Globalist open-borders deathtrap"

it's too late for that

Blogger Ahazuerus February 02, 2016 4:57 AM  

OT but related to your point about media collusion to deny the interloper, I see the New Zealand Herald are referring to Roosh as "rape advocate".

I seem to recall they smeared you, too, in re the Hugos, for the same reason...

Blogger Doom February 02, 2016 5:00 AM  

Carson? I honestly think you are against Trump now. The best, one way or another ticket is still Trump-Cruz. Those two make up for each other and bring different yet similar parts of the party, and outside the party, together. Carson's supporters are more likely to already be supporting one or the other when he throws in the towel.

I'm just not sure if Trump and Cruz can work together. If they are both truly pro-American, it would be good for them to do so. It is tough for big egos to take second billing though. And I'm not, perfectly, sure about Trump.

As for Iowa? It's Iowa. I posted a comment here well before the numbers came in, maybe before... was it yesterday evening? Anyway, Iowa is a terrible place to begin setting up bets. Sure, there are some things handed out. But Iowa is a waste as regards political consensus or predictions go. I like the place, or at least the people. But they aren't politically astute. Hobbits. Fine for what it is, just don't put much stock into the outcome.

Anonymous SevenCrimes February 02, 2016 5:07 AM  

and in the - now unlikely - circumstance that Trump does arrive at the Convention with a majority of delegates...

Dude, it's just Iowa. Unless you're positing a major vote-rigging operation in every state down the line, it's a little too early to concede defeat because of the state that picks the Republican loser more often than not. Huckabee beat McCain by 21 points in Iowa in 2008, and then proceeded to lose NH to McCain by 26 points.

Blogger Shimshon February 02, 2016 5:34 AM  

A Trump-Carson rapprochement makes sense to me. Doesn't even have to lead to a VP nod.

Anonymous Millenium February 02, 2016 5:36 AM  

Any evidence of rigging yet? The best theory I have read is Trump votes were given to Rubio. That would explain Rubio's sudden surge and why despite all the new voters drew his results don't reflect it. By rigging votes for Rubio the elites get their man (who is bought and paid for by goldman sachs) to win but set him up to come out innocent if the fraud is uncovered.

Blogger Matamoros February 02, 2016 5:44 AM  

If Trump tries to do something with Carson he will be a dead duck - just as was Pat Buchanan.

As I said elsewhere, Trump needs to get his anti-fraud program in place to prevent vote scamming. No way Cruz won this one.

And this will just continue happening if he doesn't. As Joe Stalin mused, "it doesn't matter who votes, it only matters who counts the votes".

I agree with @11 all the way. The votes were taken from Trump and given to the others to keep them in the election, and Donald from running the table.

Blogger Positive Dennis February 02, 2016 5:56 AM  

I believe Rand got a delegate

Blogger VD February 02, 2016 6:00 AM  

The best, one way or another ticket is still Trump-Cruz.

To win election, yes. But not to win the nomination. Do you seriously think Cruz accepts that deal today?

Anonymous PhillipGeorge©2016 February 02, 2016 6:03 AM  

the spin in some of the MSM is among the most gut wrenching propoganda you will see anywhere. Take note: "donald-trump-loses-marco-rubio-surges-but-dont-forget-who-actually-won-last-night" u.k. spectator
These are animal farm headlines. They'd sell their grand parents to glue factories. or baby body parts to the highest bidder. but wait, that's been done hasn't it?

Blogger Mandos February 02, 2016 6:15 AM  

I'm trying my best to keep it rational, your might as well be right with your argument of the sudden mobilisation against the interloper, and yet...

So the pollsters had predicted more or less everything accurately, the close contest between Bernie & Hillary, Cruz being consistently strong over the last 2 months, Jeb out, Carson losing momentum but still in the race... everything, BUT the sudden Rubio surge at Trump's expense? Really? Call me biased or paranoid, but I can hardly believe that. The alignment of the planets is too good to be true for the elite. Even these Microsoft devices on which the votes were recorded are the perfect bait. Muh butthurt Trump supporters, muh conspiracy theories /pol/ nutjobs. Everyone seems to be swallowing the Rubio surge as if it was the most natural thing in the world, and you had not one single pollster to see it coming - man is that Rubio vote edgy, shouldn't come out of the closet before D-Day.

Anyway, I know ranting is useless. Either way the elites have succeeded in reframing the momentum - they are pretty good at it, one has to give them that. Now there's no denying Trump handled the results perfectly. Let's see how he manages it in NH now that he's had a field test.

Anonymous Napoleon 12pdr February 02, 2016 6:15 AM  

Now it gets interesting. New Hampshire should pare the field to 3-5 candidates. Bush isn't one of them. It's worth pointing out that the no-hopers have 25% of the vote between them, enough to tip the scales depending on how the preference cascade goes. I think this goes to Super Tuesday at the least.

Anonymous Steve February 02, 2016 6:25 AM  

Farmer Tom has an unfair advantage over normal people, he gets up at the crack of dawn to feed the ducks (or whatever it is they do on farms).

That's why farmers always seem to know everything that's going on.

Anonymous That Would Be Telling February 02, 2016 6:31 AM  

Eh, surge or not, skepticism of Cruz's new found sincerity on immigration or not, with the Fall of the House of Bush ($3,000 spent for every vote ¡Jeb! received), Rubio's the open borders establishment choice. His fairly strong showing in Iowa should only be surprising if you assumed only the high level GOPe had cuckservatives, which we know from the normal people around is is simply not true, they do have a base, it's just small.

Blogger PatrickH February 02, 2016 6:31 AM  

The Republicans will pressure all of the others to withdraw and throw all of their support, cash and people (such as they are) behind Rubio. Exception: Jeb. He'll be given a face-saving period to withdraw, but his money in particular will be directed Rubio-ward. And then all of their attacks will be directed at...Cruz. They'll pretend to ignore Trump and try to drive Cruz out of the race. Cruz will be their target.

It won't work. Trump will win the nomination easily. Not with Carson, mind you. And Carson will not withdraw. But he's finished.

Anyway, Iowa didn't hurt Trump. Iowa doesn't count. There's a guy with a bullseye on his back right now, and his name is not The Donald. It's the guy whom nobody likes.

Blogger Fred February 02, 2016 6:36 AM  

I dont believe that Rubio got 23% legitimately. Microsoft was involved with the establishment vote rigging.

Blogger Doom February 02, 2016 6:40 AM  

Vox,

The only way Cruz accepts that deal is if he loses any other path. And, I disagree. I do believe that would not win the nomination, it would tie it up 'yesterday'. The thing is, for him, and Trump, is to not do too much damage to each other. Not sure that is possible, or probable... But, yeah, sure, it could happen. Both are hungry, both have a brain. Both have many of the same enemies, and at least suggest same goals.

On the good side, both are outs with the establishment. Enemy of my enemy might just leave enough room in there.

I don't hate Cruz (or trust him, though or Trump). But... I can't make the odds, I can only deal with the ones that are available.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan February 02, 2016 6:51 AM  

From what I read of how the D party rigs their voting in Iowa I think an opportunity was lost to see how personal politics (means the social game, we suck) is conducted. Typical R politics, abstract blather then private vote then go home. It seems the Ds actually have to stand up and declare and face the other nasty HR ladies or BLM type thugs, seems more appropriate for what is coming.

OpenID basementhomebrewer February 02, 2016 6:52 AM  

@20 I would agree. It seems many here believe that the elite are too smart by half.

The amount of money, ads, and plain old media assassins aimed at Cruz for the past 2 months is hard to ignore. They even pulled out old failure members of the establishment like Bob Dole. Fox is clearly in the Rubio bag and is pulling out all the stops to destroy Cruz. The Donald is not taking the same kind or volume of fire that Cruz has been taking these past 2 months.

If the elite's plan is really to back Cruz then they have a very complicated approach to achieving that goal. They would have had to count on all of the attacks they are coordinating not working. Something I do not believe they would have planned.

Anonymous 5343 February 02, 2016 6:56 AM  

Cruz is not an "outsider". The elite would be thrilled to have him as the nominee if the alternative is Trump. They'd rather have Rubio, but if they can't pull it off, the other Goldman Sachs Cuban will be prez, and nobody pulling the strings will be all that concerned.

Blogger Rantor February 02, 2016 6:57 AM  

Today they make a big deal about Trump's second. In a few months they may be reminding us that like Cruz, Huckabee and Santorum won Iowa... Narrative is constantly manipulated.

Blogger Josh February 02, 2016 7:02 AM  

This is the most important election ever.

Slight correction:

MOST IMPORTANTEST ELECTION EVAR!!!

Anonymous Millenium February 02, 2016 7:03 AM  

@24 "The Donald is not taking the same kind or volume of fire that Cruz has been taking these past 2 months."

I want some of what you are smoking.

Jeb was the establishment's choice but Cruz is their back up now that Jeb has been jebbed.

Blogger Dave February 02, 2016 7:07 AM  

"Besides being black" BBB heh

Please enough Stalin quoting already.



Blogger Josh February 02, 2016 7:07 AM  

Folks complaining about rigging the vote...note that Romney got 24% of the vote in 2012...which is what Rubio got yesterday.

Blogger Rantor February 02, 2016 7:09 AM  

Ilk, please join in my crusade to never forget by wrting "Jeb!" every time. extra credit if you throw an upside down exclamation mark in front.

Blogger VD February 02, 2016 7:10 AM  

On the good side, both are outs with the establishment.

I really do not understand conservatives who keep saying this. Cruz is not on the outs with the establishment. He is literally and figuratively in bed with them.

Now, I grant that he might be personally on the outs with the titular GOP establishment, but the bigger boys are just fine with him.

Blogger Josh February 02, 2016 7:11 AM  

I really do not understand conservatives who keep saying this. Cruz is not on the outs with the establishment. He is literally and figuratively in bed with them.

But Vox, guys like Bob Dole talk about how much they hate Ted Cruz!!!

Blogger Mr.MantraMan February 02, 2016 7:13 AM  

I go with VD the D side was even more interesting than the battle to block The Donald. Wouldn't it be interesting if The Bern took the win in a hard fought race then face Trump or Cruz then luring Nanny Bloomberg in for fun.

Anonymous Millenium February 02, 2016 7:14 AM  

@27 It is the most important election ever. Last chance to vote in someone who can prevent the collapse. If current demographic trends continue no non leftist candidate will ever be president again. Unless your next president closes the border and begins reparations the US is more fucked than a swedish school girl in a refugee camp.

Anonymous That Would Be Telling February 02, 2016 7:15 AM  

@23 Mr.MantraMan:

From what I read of how the D party rigs their voting in Iowa I think an opportunity was lost to see how personal politics (means the social game, we suck) is conducted. Typical R politics, abstract blather then private vote then go home. It seems the Ds actually have to stand up and declare and face the other nasty HR ladies or BLM type thugs, seems more appropriate for what is coming.

That's how Obama won so many caucuses early in 2008, if it's all out in the open Black >> Woman, especially if approached in the style of BLM (back then "the Chicago way"). One of the many things the utterly inept throughout her life Hillary didn't see coming.

Blogger Josh February 02, 2016 7:15 AM  

Wouldn't it be interesting if The Bern took the win in a hard fought race then face Trump or Cruz then luring Nanny Bloomberg in for fun.

Bernie can't win because he only appeals to white liberals. White liberals are a minority of the democratic electorate in most states.

Anonymous Millenium February 02, 2016 7:17 AM  

@30 whats your point? Romney was the establishment cuck, they werent desperate to stump him.

OpenID mattse001 February 02, 2016 7:19 AM  

"...what would throw a real twist into it is if Trump can win Ben Carson's support."
Why not go Trump/Rubio while you're at it? I mean, as long as we're talking fantasy scenarios...
There is a reason Carson supporters aren't Trump supporters. What do you imagine that is?

Anonymous That Would Be Telling February 02, 2016 7:19 AM  

@37 Josh:

Wouldn't it be interesting if The Bern took the win in a hard fought race then face Trump or Cruz then luring Nanny Bloomberg in for fun.

Bernie can't win because he only appeals to white liberals. White liberals are a minority of the democratic electorate in most states.


But "you can't beat something with nothing", and Hillary is pretty near that. Who does she appeal to?

OpenID basementhomebrewer February 02, 2016 7:20 AM  

@32 I don't really understand how people think the Donald has not been co-opted by the establishment. Trump has recently been bragging about the establishment calling him and offering support. He has the establishment governor of Iowa endorse him. He talks about how the big money donors who were backing Yeb! are now calling him. He is walking back his positions on immigration and is now talking about letting people right back in once they are deported. In an interview last week he was talking about what great people Pelosi, Reed and Schumer are and how he looked forward to working with them.


None of that sounds like an outsider to me.

Blogger Josh February 02, 2016 7:22 AM  

whats your point? Romney was the establishment cuck, they werent desperate to stump him.

My point is that at least a quarter of the iowa electorate votes for establishment candidates. Rubio got the 2012 Romney voters.

Blogger Josh February 02, 2016 7:23 AM  

Who does she appeal to?

Old people, middle aged white women, blacks, Hispanics.

OpenID bc64a9f8-765e-11e3-8683-000bcdcb2996 February 02, 2016 7:23 AM  

Hmmm...
"What seems blustery and over-the-top on camera comes off as..."
simple penis envy from rent seekers, betas, wanna-bes, and also-rans.
It's kinda' like an inverse to those nasty stereotypes...you can't pull it off unless there's SOMETHING there.
CaptDMO

OpenID mattse001 February 02, 2016 7:24 AM  

5. "Cruz is not a Natural Born Citizen. You have to "at birth" be an American citizen with BOTH parents being American citizens."
Uh huh. Which is why the only person to issue legal challenge to his candidacy is a hack Democrat lawyer in TX. Because everyone knows case law supports this. /sarc

Go crush some more tinfoil for your hat, birther.

Blogger Nate February 02, 2016 7:29 AM  

This is amazingly stupid. Rubio is in the jeb slot.

Vox is saying that eventually Rubio will fall off and the establishment will pick cruz as the lesser of two evils.

This is again... ignorant of the actual situation.

Cruz is a much bigger threat to the gop establishment than trump is. Or at least that I how the gop etablishment perceives it.

They view trump as someone they can negotiate with and deal with.

They think cruz will bring the party faction he represents to power and throw them out on their asses.

And no... NO does not represent the gop establishmemt.

Trent lott.. Bob doll.. John mccain... Paul ryan.

All prefer trump to cruz.

That is a fact.

OpenID mattse001 February 02, 2016 7:31 AM  

6. "remarkable. Trump produced c. 60,000 new Republiscam caucus voters...yet most of them - according to the "official returns" - chose one or another open borders/free trade Zionist warmonger Cuban Cuck."
Or, he didn't produce those new voters. Maybe they were the silent evangelical majority people talked about after 2012, and voted against the obviously opportunistic "Christianity" of Trump. But that wouldn't fit your paranoid conspiracy theory.

OpenID mattse001 February 02, 2016 7:39 AM  

12. "As I said elsewhere, Trump needs to get his anti-fraud program in place to prevent vote scamming. No way Cruz won this one."
So 1/3 of all votes were fraudulent (60k new voters), but nobody noticed? That's quite a conspiracy!
Occam's Razor explanation: Trump lost because of his weak ground game, and because his brand isn't nearly as popular as you imagine (he has the highest negatives of any candidate on either side).

You nutjobs need to calm down, or you'll blow a gasket when Trump doesn't end up running away with victory.

Blogger Shimshon February 02, 2016 7:41 AM  

"MOST IMPORTANTEST ELECTION EVAR!!!"

The correct spelling is "evah." Canadians sometimes use "evuh."

Blogger Josh February 02, 2016 7:42 AM  

You nutjobs need to calm down, or you'll blow a gasket when Trump doesn't end up running away with victory.

They're making meltdowns great again

Blogger Nate February 02, 2016 7:43 AM  

"So 1/3 of all votes were fraudulent (60k new voters), but nobody noticed? That's quite a conspiracy!
Occam's Razor explanation: Trump lost because of his weak ground game, and because his brand isn't nearly as popular as you imagine (he has the highest negatives of any candidate on either side)."

Exactly. Cruz had the most expansive ground game anyone had ever seen in iowa. he had 12000 volunteers and employed massive analytics research to focus the efforts of those volunteers.

The issue here is the narrative that only trump was bringing in new people. Its false. Trump and Cruz were both bringing in new people.

OpenID mattse001 February 02, 2016 7:47 AM  

20. "The Republicans will pressure all of the others to withdraw and throw all of their support, cash and people (such as they are) behind Rubio."
The establishment won't have to coerce anyone to drop out. Not only does it take money to run a campaign, but every primary/caucus where a candidate gets 2% is a public humiliation.
Since these are politicians (largely) that we're talking about, how many public kicks in the balls do you think they're willing to take?

Blogger Nate February 02, 2016 7:48 AM  

"They're making meltdowns great again"

It reminds of the liberals after dubya won in 2000. How could he possibly have won? I don't know a single person who voted for him!

here is something that should bother Trump people... Not that he didn't win Iowa. Not winning Iowa doesn't matter at all. The weird thing is poorly Trump did in rural Iowa. That is a big problem in a GOP primary. Now its just a one time thing. Maybe quirky iowa. If its not.. trump has a big problem.

Blogger Shimshon February 02, 2016 7:50 AM  

It seems to me that Trump's close second place finish is a bigger victory than Cruz's first place by 4%.

OpenID mattse001 February 02, 2016 7:53 AM  

21. "I dont believe that Rubio got 23% legitimately. Microsoft was involved with the establishment vote rigging."
So 5% vote fraud was okay, but 6-7% to beat Trump was asking too much? Yeah, that extra 2% fraud would've tipped people off!

OpenID mattse001 February 02, 2016 7:58 AM  

24. "If the elite's plan is really to back Cruz then they have a very complicated approach to achieving that goal. They would have had to count on all of the attacks they are coordinating not working. Something I do not believe they would have planned."

I agree. The reason you never see Batman gambits in real life is because they don't work.

Blogger Gaiseric February 02, 2016 7:59 AM  

@14: Today, no. But can Cruz translate all of that ground game he had in Iowa to the other primaries? Can Rubio? I personally think both have peaked too early.

Blogger Nate February 02, 2016 7:59 AM  

"I really do not understand conservatives who keep saying this. Cruz is not on the outs with the establishment. He is literally and figuratively in bed with them."

he is not in bed with them. That's what you don't grasp.

He is the leader of a minority faction of the party. Honestly mate you're looking at the Bolsheviks and claiming they are friends with Mensheviks because they have things in common.

And everyone is going on and on about a goldman sachs loan that Cruz could pay off tomorrow with his war chest and not even notice it.

If he's beholden to anyone its Big Oil. if you want to talk about banks.. take a look at Trump's financials. He's way more wallstreet than Cruz is. Duetchbank... Ladder Capital...

oh wait... those guys aren't paying for Trumps campaign. That's not fair right?

Right.

And Goldman isn't paying Cruz' campaign either. His campaign is almost completely funded by Big Oil.

Blogger Mister Mystery February 02, 2016 8:02 AM  

Prediction:

Trump vs. Sanders, with Sanders as the next president.

Maybe (hopefully?) I'm wrong, but we'll see.

Anonymous That Would Be Telling February 02, 2016 8:04 AM  

@52. mattse001:

Since these are politicians (largely) that we're talking about, how many public kicks in the balls [from getting only 2%] do you think they're willing to take?

Well, since uber-Gamma ¡Jeb! is one of these, 2.8% in Iowa at the cost of $3,000 per vote, it might be more a question of how long it takes Mike "Set all our donor money on fire" Murphy to finish that part of his job.

OpenID mattse001 February 02, 2016 8:04 AM  

I could spend hours picking apart the paranoid nonsense on this site, but instead I'll just say this:
Trump might still win, but that won't become clear until all of the also-rans drop out of the race. The only serious question remaining is how their supporters realign once these low-energy (heh) candidates leave.

We already got rid of Huckabee. I expect several more to depart after NH. I bet it's down to 3 after the SEC primaries. In the meantime, remember that the rest of the country might not see things the same way as you do. Time will tell.

Anonymous szIlk February 02, 2016 8:06 AM  

Iowa 2016, proving conclusively that Jeb B's real campaign slogan was always akin to, "But....but....Dad?!?"

OpenID mattse001 February 02, 2016 8:08 AM  

@ That Would Be Telling:
True, but Mike "Set all our donor money on fire" Murphy gets paid one way or another. Nice work if you can get it, and one of the main problems (among many) with the establishment.
I would bet it isn't Murphy who pulls the plug, but the donors directly.

Anonymous farmer Tom February 02, 2016 8:10 AM  

This is going to be short. I don't have time to expand on my thought much.

I believe you are somewhat misreading the reason for the results.

But first, the fraud comments are BULLSHIT!!!

In this day and age, where everybody has a cell phone camera, it's just not possible for a caucus result to be gamed. I and at least 10 other people stood and watched the ballots be counted, taking pictures of the ballot count on my phone. Then, after the final count had been put on a final tally sheet, I have 4 pictures of that tally sheet. Two, even before they have been signed, then two after they had been signed by the chairman elected by the citizen group, who was responsible for turning the vote in to the State office. And I can go to the interactive map at the web and see that the vote totals reported from my precinct are the same as we reported and the same as on my camera. There is no fraud.

Now, why the results we got. But aside your personal opinions and bias a second, and hear me out.

The overwhelming opinion in comments both at my caucus and on FB from those who voted for Cruz, is a desire to fix the broken American system. A return to the principles of our nations founding. Now you may hate Cruz, not trust Cruz, dislike Cruz, fine. But he ran in Iowa as someone who had gone to Washington and fought both the corrupt Republicans as well as Obama and the corrupt Democrats. He wants to end Obozocare. He wants to shut down the EPA. He wants to return the "federal lands" to the States. He want to stop Federal education systems like "commie core". He claims to support traditional marriage and oppose abortion. And he even took on the crony capitalist system that gave us the ethanol mandate, and beat them in the belly of the beast, including a 6 term Republican governor who stated publicly that he wanted Cruz defeated.

These voters want a REFORMATION of the current system, one that goes back to what our nation was founded upon.

On the other hand the Trump voters want to burn the system down. They don't care that Trump is a morally bankrupt, big government fan of eminent domain, single payer government healthcare, crony capitalism. Perfect evidence of that is one of the commenter’s here last night, who voter for Trump "because Fuck You". Trump fans want a burn it down revolution. Think the French revolution.

Rubio is now the establishment poster child. Lots more immigration so they have cheap labor for their giant corporations. Status quo on government growth and spending. Change nothing just keep the Repukes in charge.

And Carson got the "loves Jesus" vote. His radio adds mentioned God more than anything else. Spend great deals of time on his love of God and country. Nothing about fixing this country, nothing on policy, just love Jesus and God.

Maybe I'll say more later. I've got to go to work.

BTW, I'm not going to proof read this, don't have time.

Anonymous Millenium February 02, 2016 8:11 AM  

@37 And those reliable cucks turned out and voted for Cruz, not Rubio.

@41 You fail to see the big picture. Trump has already forced immigration into the spotlight. That is more than any conservative in America (or outside, so we can not include Vox) has achieved in a generation.

The even bigger picture is that there is NO downside to a Trump presidency:
1. He does what he said he would. Good.
2. He betrays his supporters and turns out to be a cuck. Good. It will destroy what disillusionment remains among white conservatives.
3. He turns out to be a tyrant. Good. The inevitable shooting will start now while whites are not a minority and not 20 years from now when they are a minority.

You dont see that this is not about Trump. He is a figurehead. He is the last hope of a desperate people who have woken to find themselves neck deep in shit. Either he does what he promises or the people give up on America.
Trump has royally fucked the elites plan. They were going to give us a choice between lackluster candidates while heating the water up slowly. Trump has made people realize they are being boiled alive.

FWIW I watched Trumps interview with Barbara Walters and I think he is sincere about making america great because he truly cares about his kids and grandkids and he has seen the same sort of future for the US that Vox has seen. I would not be surprised if he even has a date picked out close to 2033 and that if he and Vox sat down and compared notes they'd agree on a lot.

I also think the best long term future for this country would be a revolution/secession within 5 years and the only way I see that happening is President Trump being assassinated.


@46 Please tell me more about how Goldman Sachs pet boy is a threat to the establishment.

Blogger Nate February 02, 2016 8:19 AM  

"They don't care that Trump is a morally bankrupt, big government fan of eminent domain, single payer government healthcare, crony capitalism. Perfect evidence of that is one of the commenter’s here last night, who voter for Trump "because Fuck You". Trump fans want a burn it down revolution. Think the French revolution. "

Dammit..

he's making me like Trump voters.

Blogger Nate February 02, 2016 8:21 AM  

"@46 Please tell me more about how Goldman Sachs pet boy is a threat to the establishment."

You don't know what the word establishment means in this context.

He is a threat to the leadership group of the republican party. You're looking at the Bolsheviks and saying... "please tell me how these commie jews are a threat to the Menshevik commie jews."

Blogger Mr.MantraMan February 02, 2016 8:25 AM  

Shitlord right is talking a big game but we ain't on the ground yet. Not that Jesus land Iowa is the place but it does have to happen

Anonymous BatSteve February 02, 2016 8:25 AM  

Some men just want to watch the world Bern.

Anonymous #8601 Jean Valjean February 02, 2016 8:29 AM  

There has been significant skepticism about Trump's ability to convert his poll numbers into actual delegates. To garner 7 delegates in Iowa of all places, with little establishment support or ground game, bodes well for Trump going forward.

Anonymous That Would Be Telling February 02, 2016 8:30 AM  

@63 mattse001:

@ That Would Be Telling:

True, but Mike "Set all our donor money on fire" Murphy gets paid one way or another. Nice work if you can get it, and one of the main problems (among many) with the establishment.

I would bet it isn't Murphy who pulls the plug, but the donors directly.


Is anyone still donating to ¡Jeb!, or more specifically the super PAC Murphy is running?

I wondered, since the required reporting was a couple of days ago, and according to this account and another, it got $103 million in the first half of 2015 but only $15 in the second half, and $10 million of that from one donation. $59 million at the end of the year, minus at least $16 million spend on ads in the last month. So that PAC still has around $40 million to burn, not including whatever donations have been received in the last month. Yeah, nice work if you can get it, and officially ¡Jeb! can't order (coordinate with) Murphy to give up and return it.

Sad that ¡Jeb! is only interesting to the extent of his historic train wreck, which is at least half of the interest in Hillary right now as she seems poised to repeat 2008 with much less of an excuse.

Blogger Student in Blue February 02, 2016 8:34 AM  

@Nate
Vox is saying that eventually Rubio will fall off and the establishment will pick cruz as the lesser of two evils.

[...]Cruz is a much bigger threat to the gop establishment than trump is. Or at least that I how the gop etablishment perceives it.


Vox also specified that he was clearly knowing there's a difference between the titular GOP establishment, and the bigger boys who bankroll them.

Blogger Anchorman February 02, 2016 8:44 AM  

Cruz is somehow an establishment darling/stalking horse in a race with Jeb! Rubio, Christie, Kasich, etc? As others pointed out, folks give the GOPe too much credit for master planning with attack ads meant to fail and rocket Cruz to the front.

The GOPe has only one gameplan. They didn’t develop a new one for this cycle. Again, they’re not that bright and, more importantly, they don’t respect the American voter enough to think they need a new gameplan.

Though still not a Trump supporter (but not a hater), it’s clear his candidacy infuriates the GOPe. They wanted to run the same plan they’ve run effectively for decades:

Let the little people have their moment in the sun in Iowa, then crush the outsiders and entrench their candidate by March. The problem is that none of the tactics they typically rely on have worked vs Trump. He slams a female talking head with “blood” comments. The manufactured outrage went nowhere. He says he likes war heroes who aren’t captured. The horror expressed by the media…went nowhere. On and on.

But now, the GOPe not only can’t seem to knock Trump out by March, they have to also hit at Cruz. The plan can work with one leading outsider. But two or three (Carson)? Two or three who won far more delegates combined than the establishment dogs, without any slowdown in the polls?

That’s why they’re talking up Rubio’s “surge.” If they don’t, they lose the news cycle for February and lose any chance of taking out Trump and Cruz.

They really wanted to be ready for Phase II of the plan, but Trump is stealing all the oxygen in the room and they can’t take both out at the same time and can’t figure out if Trump is for real (like many of us who don’t quite trust Trump). If they could be certain Trump is just playing to the bozos, they would go all guns on Cruz. To his credit, Trump isn’t showing his hand and that makes this election cycle far, far more entertaining.

Blogger Jack Ward February 02, 2016 8:46 AM  

@14 Cruz might; after a few more primaries. Unless the conspiracy folks are right and massive vote rigging is going on. I get very uneasy with the idea of anything other than paper ballots closely watched and checked. Electronic vote tabulation just seems too easy for PTB to rig.
Color me always suspicious of government at any level.

Anonymous SugarPi February 02, 2016 8:46 AM  

Cruz is reconstituting the Bush administration with Chad Sweet, co-founder of Chertoff Group (as in Michael Chertoff), Victoria Coates, and James Woolsey as advisors. This is according to article in New American.
Don't we all want a rerun of Bush??

Blogger Nate February 02, 2016 8:51 AM  

"Vox also specified that he was clearly knowing there's a difference between the titular GOP establishment, and the bigger boys who bankroll them."

/facepalm

It isn't about who bankrolls them. it is about THEM. It is about Trent Lott wanting to remain relevant. Its about Bob Dole wanting to remain relevant. Its about control of the RNC. Not the bankrolls of the RNC. Because the people who bankroll the leaders of the RNC will bankroll whoever runs the RNC.

Anonymous That Would Be Telling February 02, 2016 8:52 AM  

Should we be paying more attention to how Cruz took on the Ethanol Lobby and decisively won Iowa? That would seem to be a game changer, whatever happens after yesterday, and echoes farmer Tom's excellent analysis @64.

Blogger Gaiseric February 02, 2016 8:52 AM  

The GOPe is replaceable to the ACTUAL establishment, folks. Ever wonder why the early Republicans actually doubled down on the exact same policies that sank the Whigs?

Or did you not even know that?

Anonymous SugarPi February 02, 2016 8:53 AM  

Oh, I forgot Eliott Abrams. Can someone tell me who Trump's advisors are? That's key for me. Rubio and Carson are too tight with the Bush family and that's a deal breaker IMO.

Blogger Gaiseric February 02, 2016 9:00 AM  

To a degree; who cares what happens in Iowa? It's not an open voting state, which favors registered Republicans and establishment candidates. Trump's appeal crosses traditional party lines, because it's not really on the traditional William Buckley defined conservative-liberal axis.

The fact that Trump did as well as he did in a state like Iowa is a huge victory for him, actually. And when we get to open voting states and Rubio and even to a certain extent Cruz lose their systemic advantage, we'll see how well he does. When independents, which anymore are the largest voting block in America, are factored in, who does well in a party affair like Iowa is irrelevant.

Blogger Josh February 02, 2016 9:00 AM  

Can someone tell me who Trump's advisors are?

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-01-31/the-trump-doctrine-revealed

Anonymous Cadwallander J February 02, 2016 9:01 AM  

Should we be paying more attention to how Cruz took on the Ethanol Lobby and decisively won Iowa?

Yes - this was the most interesting part of the evening, aside from the Bern. Everyone assumes that ethanol is Iowa's third rail, even worse than Social Security on the national scale. Cruz didn't back down from his opposition to it, and still won handily. As for Rubio, Iowans share the suicidal Minnesotan attitude towards vibrancy. They have the same mental pathology, in that they don't have to live around minorities and have very little if any direct contact with them, and thus embrace diversity inc. with a passion - ergo Rubios strong finish.

None of that sounds like an outsider to me.

Sounds like they finally got the brain fungus embedded through his ear. I still think Trump has the inside track to the nomination. South Carolina should clear the field.

Congrats to Farmer Tom on the predictions!

Blogger Josh February 02, 2016 9:04 AM  


“This whole notion that he is devoid of advisers is wrong. We have a lot of smart guys around us and a lot of smart people helping us,” Sam Clovis, Trump’s chief policy adviser, told me in an interview...

Clovis, a retired Air Force colonel and former Iowa Senate candidate, leads a policy team of two that works with campaign manager Corey Lewandowski to connect Trump to experts and former officials constantly, he said...

But other experts have regular interactions with Trump, including former Defense Intelligence Agency head Gen. Michael Flynn...

Sources close to the campaign told me Trump has also spoken with controversial historian Daniel Pipes and Israel’s current envoy to the UN Danny Danon, among others.

Blogger Nate February 02, 2016 9:09 AM  

" South Carolina should clear the field."

It is definitely going to be very interesting there.

Blogger So Meh February 02, 2016 9:09 AM  

Trump received the most votes in the Iowa Republican Caucus "EVER BEFORE", expect Cruz got more this time. Historic. My Hat tip to Trump for the entertainment value so far, (for just being in the race) for campaigning on views on immigration and trade that has moved the political discussion from silence (crickets) to open discussion. congrats to Cruz for a historic get-out-the-vote Iowa ground game which will be studied for the next 50 years.

Anonymous SugarPi February 02, 2016 9:13 AM  

Thanks, Josh... I haven't been planning to vote for any of the Presidential con-didates, so my research has been scant. I just can't stand Cruz and like how Trump is making heads explode in the establishment.

Blogger Josh February 02, 2016 9:14 AM  

And those reliable cucks turned out and voted for Cruz, not Rubio.

No. Cruz got a combination of the constitutional conservative and evangelical bases: the 2012 Paul, Santorum, and Perry voters.

Blogger Student in Blue February 02, 2016 9:20 AM  

@Nate
/facepalm

It isn't about who bankrolls them. it is about THEM. It is about Trent Lott wanting to remain relevant. Its about Bob Dole wanting to remain relevant. Its about control of the RNC. Not the bankrolls of the RNC. Because the people who bankroll the leaders of the RNC will bankroll whoever runs the RNC.


Nate, you missed my point, again, and in doing so essentially argued my point.

You can't get more /facepalm than that.

Anonymous The OASF February 02, 2016 9:31 AM  

As predicted, the big "winner" of the night was Rubio.

I hate to say I told you so.

We're now almost assuredly looking at a brokered GOP convention and a Rubio/Bush ticket. So just as the NFL's top playoff seeds crushed the wildcard rebellion this year, this might be the most establishment-oriented ticket in all US history before it's all said and done. My bet would be Rubio/Bush and Biden/Kerry or Kerry/Biden. I don't see Hillary finishing the nomination race.

@53
This actually makes sense, because rural GOP communities do not nearly understand as well the evils of vibrancy like the suburbanites, et. al. do. To really grasp the vibrancy thing, it has to be experienced up close and personal.

So Trump's hectoring on illegal immigration seems more like bigotry and fear mongering than anything else to them.

Anonymous That Would Be Telling February 02, 2016 9:33 AM  

More on the greater significance of Mike Murphy's ... whatever:

The Jeb Bush Hatchet Man Who Might Accidentally Elect Donald Trump, with even more fire metaphors:

If Donald Trump ends up on stage this July formally accepting the GOP presidential nomination, don’t be surprised if everyone from Washington Republicans to Twitter conservatives gathers outside the convention arena in Cleveland to burn Mike Murphy in effigy.

The famed 53-year-old political consultant runs the Right to Rise super PAC, where he has spent the past year on a mission to mow down every viable Republican candidate standing between Jeb Bush and the White House.


Later it mentioned his "cavalierly dismissing [Trump] as a 'zombie frontrunner' and stubbornly refusing to use the vast war chest at his disposal to take the billionaire down. ('Trump is, frankly, other people’s problem,' he said when asked about it in August.)"

He might be right about the "zombie frontrunner" bit (remains to be seen), but very much wrong that Trump wasn't a serious problem for the "low energy" ¡Jeb! ... except for the minor detail his vig on this campaign will further set up his already well padded retirement.

The campaign waged by Murphy has been, by turns, vicious, strange, and comically ineffectual — but always expensive.... (It goes into some details.)

Perhaps unsurprisingly, some disgruntled donors have struggled to keep their displeasure with Murphy to themselves. As one nameless Bush backer grumbled to Politico during the latest round of venting in the media, “You might as well light all this money on fire.”

The greater point is that with his fire directed at every credible threat other than Trump, to the extent it's even effective (debatable, but no one's highlighting the successful efforts right now), he's, for example, perhaps done serious damage to new GOPe darling Rubio, and before that maybe other people the GOPe would be comfortable with, perhaps even some who decided not to run and get steamrollered by ¡Jeb!

Blogger Gaiseric February 02, 2016 9:35 AM  

@89: The Anonymous Conservative has a similar take on the risk here for America: http://www.anonymousconservative.com/blog/cruz-takes-iowa/

Anonymous That Would Be Telling February 02, 2016 9:40 AM  

@89 The OASF: ¡Jeb! and his people are said to loathe Rubio, because ¡Jeb! once did a favor to him at the beginning of his career and should have had the decency to sit out this campaign. ¡Jeb! would be truly pathetic to accept the VP position, then again there's Reagan and his father in 1980, and he might be delusional enough to believe he could then win the 2024 election.

Anonymous SugarPi February 02, 2016 9:41 AM  

Regarding SC: Trey Gowdy and Tim Scott have endorsed Rubio, so the machine in SC will work for the establishment (natch). That includes one of the upstate's gate-keepers of GOP politics.
I hope the anti-establishment crowd upsets the cart and that may happen. SC has an open primary, so a Trump win could be HUUUUGE, with Reagan Democrats rejecting Clinton and Sanders.

Blogger JCclimber February 02, 2016 9:48 AM  

it is very interesting to me, examining the breakdown of voters for Bernie and Hitlery, how she got 64% of the old white people vote, and Bernie got...




84%, yep 84% of the 17-29 vote.

Want to talk about photo ops? Hitlery always being seen with old white weak liberals (like herself) while Bernie has fresh young college students in the background of all his campaign stops.

You're seeing the effect of decades of socialist programming at our public schools.

Anonymous That Would Be Telling February 02, 2016 9:54 AM  

Moving on to Trump, the situation is more clarified, what will he do now?

There's one debate before New Hampshire, and to participate, "a candidate must either place among the top 3 candidates in the popular vote of the Iowa caucus, or place among the top 6 candidates in an average of New Hampshire or national polls recognized by ABC News [held between Jan 1 and Feb 4].

Blogger Scott6584 February 02, 2016 9:55 AM  

Perhaps it is not surprising, since I am a Texan, but I am an unabashed supporter of Cruz for President. Admittedly, Cruz trails both Trump and Rubio in the all-important "likeability" factor. But for me, that part of his personality indicates a willingness to actually fight against the established path. For years, I've been wanting someone who will actually try to change the direction of the country, not just slow the progress toward oblivion. When Cruz was put in charge of the Federal Trade Commission, he actually redirected them to help small business, instead of using them to crush small businesses in favor of large connected companies. That's the type of real change I'd like to see.

Nevertheless, I think reading too much into Trump's loss is unwise. Trump did remarkably well in a state where being organized ahead of time means everything. Trump effectively organized a campaign on the fly, and still came close to winning.

Also, overstating the importance of Rubio's surge will be a common theme in the coming days. But if you add up the support among all the "Establishment Approved" candidates, including Rubio, Bush, Kasich, Christie, Huckabee, and Santorum, you still only get to about 32% of the Republican Electorate. They can spin this as an Establishment resurgence all they want, but the bottom line is the Establishment has a weak position.

I predict that Trump will bump back up, and that Cruz will struggle to overcome his likeability issues - especially with women. Cruz really needed for Rubio to suffer a knock out blow, but that didn't happen, and never was going to happen. Rubio is my daughter's favorite candidate, which is unsurprising because he's young and attractive. With women voting, Rubio has a constituency that is probably going to remain at about 25%.

It's going to be an interesting ride to see how the votes shake out. I think Trump will also keep about 25% of the vote because so many voters are disaffected. But Trump's negatives are off the chart bad. People who like him really like him, but a significant group really dislikes him.

For me, I like Trump for the service he's doing for the country in moving the Overton window, and trampling all over Political Correctness. Since I support Cruz, my hope is that Trumps air cover will allow the ground troops of Cruz to come in and win the battle in the end. And truth be told, I think Cruz needs Trump as a foil, to take negative attention away, and make Cruz seem more reasonable.

Oh, and someone needs to tell Cruz that victory speeches need to be short and sweet. About halfway through last night, I kept saying, "Enough. Shut up now."

Blogger Gaiseric February 02, 2016 10:04 AM  

@96: My biggest concerns with Cruz are that he was apparently either unconcerned or unaware of the problem of immigration (and how important that was to the electorate) until Trump pointed it out. His opposition to the TPP seems to have been more calculated that real too.

But mostly, I'm concerned that he simply isn't charismatic enough to win, or to lead meaningfully in making any of those changes if he does. He has a lot of the right ideas... but who cares if he can't get them implemented?

Blogger Student in Blue February 02, 2016 10:08 AM  

@96. Scott6584

You're alright for a Cruz supporter. I'm keeping you.

Blogger Student in Blue February 02, 2016 10:09 AM  

@97. Gaiseric

He has a lot of the right ideas... but who cares if he can't get them implemented?

To play devil's advocate, how exactly can Trump get them implemented either?

Blogger Nate February 02, 2016 10:10 AM  

"Nate, you missed my point, again, and in doing so essentially argued my point."

No. You're talking about macro and I'm talking about micro.

When you and vox talk about establishment you're talking big picture. but when people are talking about the "establishment" hating cruz they are not talking big picture. They are talking about Paul Ryan and Trent Lott.

Blogger Booch Paradise February 02, 2016 10:11 AM  

and is now talking about letting people right back in once they are deported.

Nothing new about that. He was saying the same thing back in august, back when people were still arguing whether or not he'd pull out of the race like he did in the last election cycle.

Blogger Austin Ballast February 02, 2016 10:15 AM  

So Cruz is going to change everything just like Reagan did? Anyone remember who followed Reagan? Not the massive success many of us thought at the time.

And I decided to vote several years ago only to push Cruz into office.

The hate for Trump is not based on reason. He is an idiot, but so is everyone else, including Cruz. The system cannot be reformed by a single man at the top.

Blogger Student in Blue February 02, 2016 10:20 AM  

@Nate
No. You're talking about macro and I'm talking about micro.

When you and vox talk about establishment you're talking big picture. but when people are talking about the "establishment" hating cruz they are not talking big picture. They are talking about Paul Ryan and Trent Lott.


And I know that. Pretty sure Vox is well aware of that too, given what he said is pretty rhetorical:

"Now, I grant that he might be personally on the outs with the titular GOP establishment, but the bigger boys are just fine with him."

It's a rhetorical point that you took at face value. It's an amusing poke of fun at how squabbling over the micro is missing the macro, not that the macro is being confused for the micro.

Blogger Josh February 02, 2016 10:21 AM  

To play devil's advocate, how exactly can Trump get them implemented either?

By making great deals with people just like he talks about doing in The Art of The Deal, the best selling bidness and deal book of all time.

Anonymous Jack Amok February 02, 2016 10:24 AM  

Cruz is a much bigger threat to the gop establishment than trump is. Or at least that I how the gop etablishment perceives it.


I think there may be two "establishments" in the equation. One is the party hacks who enjoy perks and the other is the grifters who rent-seek in epic proportions. The hacks are afraid of Cruz (they should probably be afraid of Trump too), but the grifters know they own Cruz already.

Blogger Josh February 02, 2016 10:26 AM  

I think there may be two "establishments" in the equation. One is the party hacks who enjoy perks and the other is the grifters who rent-seek in epic proportions.

Correct

Anonymous BGKB February 02, 2016 10:31 AM  

If I had bankrolled Jeb, I'd be asking for a refund about now.

The only way you could get your money back is getting paid $25 to sit at one of his rallyies, min 2 hours.

I see the New Zealand Herald are referring to Roosh as "rape advocate".

Does he pass for a moslem?

"The Donald is not taking the same kind or volume of fire that Cruz has been taking these past 2 months."

Trump just uses tweets for volume that Cruz has to take loans from his wife's company GoldManSacks to get.

Unless you're positing a major vote-rigging operation in every state down the line

Only needs to be 8 states for the JEB? splitter strategy to work, where all the zeros give their delegates to JEB?

To play devil's advocate, how exactly can Trump get them implemented either?

Obama rattles his base and inner cities burn, Trump rattles his base and inner cities starve then burn themselves + the suburbs around them.

Hitlery, how she got 64% of the old white people vote, and Bernie got...84%, yep 84% of the 17-29 vote

People always talk about Ayn Rand having 2-d villains only to find out HilLIARy's gay campaign manager is named Mook. What MOOK said would happen if Trump came into power should be the best ad that Trump could air.

Blogger Were-Puppy February 02, 2016 10:31 AM  

@10 Shimshon
A Trump-Carson rapprochement makes sense to me. Doesn't even have to lead to a VP nod.
---

This is what I'm thinking too. From what people I know, almost all like Carson, but most don't think he has the killer instinct to be President. He might actually have it buried if the hammer story is true :P Anyway, people in general like the guy.

Blogger Nate February 02, 2016 10:33 AM  

"It's a rhetorical point that you took at face value."

Its not just a rhetorical point. Its the basis of is theory that eventually the GOPe will pick Cruz over Trump.

And my issue with it is that I a believe it is false and they are in fact much more comfortable with Trump than Cruz.

You guys think Trump is this rebel out stirring things up. Its just wish fullfillment fantasy. When it comes down to brass tacks the Wall Street guys will look at Trump and Cruz and pick Trump all day long. He will make them money.

Blogger Gaiseric February 02, 2016 10:37 AM  

@99 Student in Blue

To play devil's advocate, how exactly can Trump get them implemented either?

Force of personality and will, and popular mandate. Trump is willing to call out the backstabbers who thwart what he's trying to do, and he's a big enough personality that his calling out will be heard by all of America, not just the wonkish policy nerds who watch C-SPAN.

Blogger The Other Robot February 02, 2016 10:40 AM  

Hi concession speech was the first time I actually heard Trump speak.

I already liked him, but I gained a lot more respect for him.

That speech was awesome.

Also, while I know they media lies through their asses, Trump was the guy the GOPe hated and the media said he had no ground game, and he had no Super PACs I could see, but he still came second.

Blogger Matamoros February 02, 2016 10:45 AM  

Truth is beginning to come out -

Did Microsoft Commit Voter Fraud In Iowa To Ensure Donald Trump’s Defeat?

http://www.returnofkings.com/79354/did-microsoft-commit-voter-fraud-in-iowa-to-ensure-donald-trumps-defeat

Anonymous Napoleon 12pdr February 02, 2016 10:46 AM  

From where I sit, Cruz didn't overperform, nor did Trump underperform. Both came within the margin of error of the polls, most of which were showing Cruz with a 3-5 point edge.

The big surprise was Rubio...and that wasn't much of a surprise.

The GOP historically has a moderate plutocrat faction, a populist conservative faction, and an outsider radical faction. The first two normally dominate, with the plutocrats holding the advantage because they pay attention in the off years.

This cycle, the Outsiders are a much larger group. And all three have been holding sub-primaries to select their standard-bearer. Right now, the Conservative standard-bearer is Cruz. Solidly so. Trump is the Outsider candidate. The Plutocrats haven't settled on one person...but Rubio is getting close.

The big take-away is that there's still about 25% of the primary vote spread among the no-hope candidates. 10% goes to Carson...and I don't know who inherits them. Paul has 4-5%, I think they'll keep with Paul. The remaining 10% will go over to Rubio.

Note the possible outcomes...this would put Rubio at 33-35%. Trump at 25%, Cruz at 30%...plus whatever both of them can get from Carson. It offers some very interesting questions. I'm a Cruz supporter, but Trump is acceptable to me...Rubio is a distant third. And I think a lot of Trump supporters feel the same way about Cruz. This is going to be interesting to watch.

Blogger Were-Puppy February 02, 2016 10:50 AM  

@20 PatrickH

It's the guy whom nobody likes.
--

What if we changed it to "who would you least like to have a beer with"?

Cruz
Trump
Rubio
Carson
Bush
Paul
Christy
Kasich
Fiorina


Cruz - seems a dbag, hangs out with crazies (not the good kind)

Trump - oh hell yeah.

Rubio - yeah sure. Probably get salsa and conga lines going.

Carson - oh hell yeah. The tales this dude might concoct would be worth it :P

Bush - AWKWARD. Would be one of those deals where you sip one beer for an hour looking for first exit opportunity.

Paul - 50/50 for me. If I weren't to be swarmed and beated by Paulbots, it might be fun.

Christy - Another 50/50. Kegger.

Kasich - Umm.... NO! Dude would start a million fights flapping those appendages around.

Fiorina - really? Kind of doubt it.

Anonymous SugarPi February 02, 2016 10:55 AM  

Microsoft and the brokered convention beats winning hand.
House wins again...

Blogger Student in Blue February 02, 2016 10:57 AM  

@Nate
Its not just a rhetorical point. Its the basis of is theory that eventually the GOPe will pick Cruz over Trump.

But that was not the theory that Vox was espousing in that post, so... are you sure those aren't windmills you're tilting at?

Blogger Were-Puppy February 02, 2016 10:57 AM  

@37 Josh
Bernie can't win because he only appeals to white liberals. White liberals are a minority of the democratic electorate in most states.

--

And if it lures in Bloomberg, they can split that tiny voter base. But Bloomberg will be hammered relentlessly by the NRA. They've been jumping that dude for years now.

Blogger Were-Puppy February 02, 2016 11:01 AM  

@46 Nate

Trent lott.. Bob doll.. John mccain... Paul ryan.

All prefer trump to cruz.
---

Reassess the Ryan part - They work together already:

http://paulryan.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=398270

Blogger Salt February 02, 2016 11:02 AM  

@109 When it comes down to brass tacks the Wall Street guys will look at Trump and Cruz and pick Trump all day long. He will make them money.

Trump sitting on the economic tiger, the downward spiral, and deepening global depression. Think he could deal his way out of it?

Blogger Josh February 02, 2016 11:02 AM  

Did Microsoft Commit Voter Fraud In Iowa To Ensure Donald Trump’s Defeat?

No

Blogger Gaiseric February 02, 2016 11:02 AM  

Also: http://toprightnews.com/gop-candidate-making-major-accusations-of-dirty-tricks-against-ted-cruz-campaign/

Blogger Were-Puppy February 02, 2016 11:03 AM  

@49 Shimshon

"MOST IMPORTANTEST ELECTION EVAR!!!"

The correct spelling is "evah." Canadians sometimes use "evuh."
---

Spot on. It's aboot time someone fully explained this.

Blogger Josh February 02, 2016 11:04 AM  

Paul - 50/50 for me. If I weren't to be swarmed and beated by Paulbots, it might be fun.


Did you watch Rand drink bourbon on the daily show?

Blogger The Other Robot February 02, 2016 11:05 AM  

Nate has helped me figure it all out.

Trump is actually the secret Wall Street Candidate and he has hood winked all those who support him.

Anonymous johnc February 02, 2016 11:06 AM  

@104 By making great deals with people just like he talks about doing in The Art of The Deal, the best selling bidness and deal book of all time.

Nobody knows how Trump is going to do all that shit he says he's going to do, so people fill in the details with their own thinking.

Though if we do have to come up with ideas I think we could admit that alpha males do have a certain natural instinct for leadership and getting people to fall in line. There may be hissy fits along the way, but if Trump is really good the weaker ones will follow. Trump also has shown the ability to control the narrative beyond the typical writers (MSM, etc.), at least to the best of a single person's ability. Having the power of the presidency could magnify that effect.

That's about all I have, but this is how Trump separates himself from the others, at least as I see it. Of course the big question is one of sincerity: would he actually put American interests above all others, or is that just a cover for ulterior motives?

Blogger Were-Puppy February 02, 2016 11:08 AM  

@53 Nate

here is something that should bother Trump people... Not that he didn't win Iowa. Not winning Iowa doesn't matter at all. The weird thing is poorly Trump did in rural Iowa. That is a big problem in a GOP primary. Now its just a one time thing. Maybe quirky iowa. If its not.. trump has a big problem.
--

Ok, let's say this is true.

And lets say Cruz can't handle the full attacks that Trump was absorbing before.

Enter Rubio from the crash of Titans. He'll probably tag along in 3rd, or maybe 2nd most of the time.

Then, when the big dogs go down, there he is all bright and shiny and ready to rock.

Blogger Student in Blue February 02, 2016 11:08 AM  

@113. Napoleon 12pdr

Right now, the Conservative standard-bearer is Cruz.

I wouldn't be surprised if he's also pulling some votes from the outsider radical faction as well.

Blogger The Other Robot February 02, 2016 11:13 AM  

GoldManSacks

Are those the guys that give you a back, crack and sack wax?

Anonymous map February 02, 2016 11:17 AM  

I am sorry, I have to disagree with Farmer Tom @64.

He argues that Cruz is perceived as a reform candidate as opposed to Trump being a "burn the system" down candidate. FT cites Cruz's record on giving federal land back to the states or fighting the EPA or the IRS or whatever. To qoute:

"But he ran in Iowa as someone who had gone to Washington and fought both the corrupt Republicans as well as Obama and the corrupt Democrats. He wants to end Obozocare. He wants to shut down the EPA. He wants to return the "federal lands" to the States. He want to stop Federal education systems like "commie core". He claims to support traditional marriage and oppose abortion. And he even took on the crony capitalist system that gave us the ethanol mandate, and beat them in the belly of the beast, including a 6 term Republican governor who stated publicly that he wanted Cruz defeated."

The problem, FT, is that these are "tempest in a teapot" issues. They simply do not matter. The big issues are trade and immigration, of which Cruz has very little history on. At most, he sees trade and immigration as on par with getting rid of the EPA. If he can horse trade leaving immigration intact to get rid of the EPA, as demonstrating that he did something, then he would do it. Reagan famously promised to get rid of the Department of Education, but that is still here. Of course, Reagan had communism collapse on his watch, so maybe that is ok, but a major federal department went nowhere.

Any reformation that does not involve removing free trade and repatriating immigrants is a lost cause from the start. The establishment of both parties want to elect a new people and drive the existing people into poverty and dependence. How does Cruz address that?

Another commentor, Scott6584, makes the same mistake with Cruz. He notes that Cruz was a big defender of small business when he was on the Federal Trade Commission. Well, do you know what really hurts small business? Chinese imports. Again, the "tempest in a teapot" issues do not matter if trade and immigration are not addressed.

This even goes for Bernie Sanders. All of his socialist policies are a fraud if trade and immigration is not addressed.

Trump is the only person who has even bothered to touch the issues that matter on any level. As an owner of fixed physical assets, Trump is acutely aware of how a weakening demographic profile will affect his wealth, something you would think an Iowa farmer understands, but apparently doesn't. A hostile alien people bent on taking over your property require numerical superiority to do that, either through the ballot box, the jury box or the cartridge box.

Anonymous VFM #6306 February 02, 2016 11:19 AM  

@109 And my issue with it is that I a believe it is false and they are in fact much more comfortable with Trump than Cruz.

I'm pretty sure they want Trump and Cruz to divide the disaffected delegates in order to get Rubio the consolidated insider delegates.

The party was incensed and still smarting from how much Ron Paul wrecked their Romneylimpiad, so I think they want Cruz and Trump to stay in to keep the 50% disaffected party members from feeling disenfranchised without allowing either one to establish a controlling interest.

Then, they'll pit Trump v. Cruz at the end to make sure that the Victor of that head-to-head doesn't gather the other guy's delegates.

It isn't a great strategy, because I'm pretty sure at least half the Cruzians would go Trump, and maybe 30% of the Trumpers would go Cruz (the other 70% will just bail or go with the party out of apathy.) and that will be enough for either one of them to get the nod, as long as the party plays it straight...for once.

The insiders are in a tough spot: they have to keep Trump in for fear of a Perot split, they have to keep Cruz in hopes of keeping both of them weak enough for Pool Boy, but in doing so, they may end up getting the Nationalist they deserve.

Either way, they own Cruz by proxy, the Canadian Cuban Goldman, and can deal with the Negotiator. So there's wiggle room.

Rubio is Bernie Sanders with a tighter butt.

Anonymous That Would Be Telling February 02, 2016 11:20 AM  

@117 Were-Puppy:

But Bloomberg will be hammered relentlessly by the NRA. They've been jumping that dude for years now.

Because he's been jumping us for years, and successfully since at least 2013. He's the only gun-grabber of note right now, he's been the major source of defeats for quite some time, Colorado, Washington State, Oregon (and that's continuing), Virginia, but his bought and paid for Attorney General overreached in a state that still has Blue Dog state legislators, Maine and Nevada are now on the hot spot with more seemingly innocuous initiatives like Washington State's. He's got 3 times Trump's net worth, it's probably a lot more liquid, and he really, really hates us.

So, yeah, we'd fight him tooth and nail if he runs, although he would seem to have a very poor chance of success. And "we" is a whole lot more than "the NRA".

If he ran, that would take some attention off the currently more important issue of immigration.

Anonymous average bob0 February 02, 2016 11:20 AM  

NATE in blackface as Trumps running mate...that would be Yuge!

Blogger Gaiseric February 02, 2016 11:21 AM  

Right now, the Conservative standard-bearer is Cruz.

I wouldn't be surprised if he's also pulling some votes from the outsider radical faction as well.


I'm not so sure that you can call those discrete groupings within the Republican party. There's way too much overlap and back and forth between them.

Blogger Josh February 02, 2016 11:23 AM  

As an owner of fixed physical assets, Trump is acutely aware of how a weakening demographic profile will affect his wealth, something you would think an Iowa farmer understands, but apparently doesn't.

Trump's property would probably be even more valuable if the brazilification of America accelerates.

Anonymous map February 02, 2016 11:32 AM  

Josh @134

"Trump's property would probably be even more valuable if the brazilification of America accelerates."

How is Trump going to deal with people who hate him because he's white? New York real estate is all about lobbying zoning boards for variances so that a project can be profitable. That becomes a lot more difficult with nonwhites, especially if New York goes the way of Detroit.

Anonymous johnc February 02, 2016 11:36 AM  

@134 Trump's property would probably be even more valuable if the brazilification of America accelerates.

The brazilification of the Atlantic City council certainly didn't help Trump's property value much in that city, to put it diplomatically. There's a big lesson learned in AC for those who managed interests there.

Blogger The Other Robot February 02, 2016 11:36 AM  

Scott Adams on a rigged election

Blogger Sam Lively February 02, 2016 12:00 PM  

@46

The establishment doesn't hate Cruz because they're afraid he'll throw them out of power. They hate him because they see him as a Iago/Steerpike/Wormtongue type who was more than willing to step over comrades, stab them in the back and shove them under the bus to accelerate his personal ambition.

They hate him because he's a threat to bypass the political middle class and go straight to the oligarchs that fund all their campaigns.

It's not their positions/sinecures that Cruz threatens - it's their prestige.

Meanwhile Trump is hated by the oligarchs because he's descended from their midst Prometheus style to goof off with the mortals and talk crap about his peers.

Anonymous Bird on a Wing February 02, 2016 12:03 PM  

what would throw a real twist into it is if Trump can win Ben Carson's support. Forget Trump-Cruz, the most politically effective combination would be Trump-Carson.

Heidi Cruz comes from a long line of physician-missionaries, and was raised by a 7th Day Adventist dentist, who took his family on dental missionary work around the world. Her brother is a pediatric orthopedic surgeon who has also done medical missionary work.

Can anyone honestly say this will have no effect on the thought processes of 7th Day Adventist brain surgeon, Dr. Ben Carson?

Also quoted from the article:

“She was always the outgoing one that got people to try samples,” their mother said.

After graduating from Valley View Adventist Academy in Arroyo Grande, Cruz’s bread-making days ended when she left to attend Monterey Bay Academy, an Adventist-owned boarding school in Monterey.

“Years after, people would say, ‘I need to know where that little girl is that sold bread,’ ” Suzanne Nelson said.

...

If her brother sought to make a difference one surgery at a time, Cruz sought change on a broader scale by helping her husband get elected to the Senate. When he was behind in the polls, Ted Cruz suggested they liquidate their savings — $1.2 million — and bolster the campaign chest.

“What astonished me, then and now,” Cruz recently told The New York Times, “was Heidi within 60 seconds said, ‘Absolutely,’ with no hesitation.”

Blogger The Other Robot February 02, 2016 12:07 PM  

With respect to Scott Adams' humor piece, was Farmer Tom alerting us to the fact that it was a rigged election?

OpenID denektenorsk February 02, 2016 12:07 PM  

This is some very clever spin. Democrats are the real racissess, Republicans gave 60% of their votes to 2 hispanics and a black man. http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/02/02/two-hispanics-one-black-man-win-60-of-white-republican-iowa/

Blogger Josh February 02, 2016 12:10 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Sheila4g February 02, 2016 12:11 PM  

Thanks, Farmer Tom, for a good summation of what happened. Trump certainly didn't do poorly, but the expected media spin has been "HE LOST BIG!" and I was hoping for a win for psychological reasons. Like others, I have problems with Cruz. He says many of the "right" things, but he was not opposed to immigration until Trump made the issue his own. He still only promises to complete the 700 miles of border wall authorized by congress - of which about 640 have already been completed. I believe Trump is claiming to plan on a wall across the entire border - could be mistaken.

I am a Christian and have no illusions about how deep or sincere Trump's faith may be (since he obviously had no problem with 2 of his children marrying Jews). However, Cruz's public calling for the Holy Spirit to help him get elected, and his father's claiming Teddy is "anointed," bother me.

I am definitely part of the "burn it down" camp. I don't fully trust any of them, but prefer Trump's wild card to Cruz's somehow smarmy persona. It may be more "gut" than "rational," and I try to be rational, but I can't comfortably get behind Cruz.

Blogger bob k. mando February 02, 2016 12:15 PM  

5. W.LindsayWheeler February 02, 2016 4:35 AM
Cruz is not a Natural Born Citizen. You have to "at birth" be an American citizen with BOTH parents being American citizens



that's not what the law says.

it's what the law SHOULD say, but it's not.



114. Were-Puppy February 02, 2016 10:50 AM
What if we changed it to "who would you least like to have a beer with"?

Fiorina - really? Kind of doubt it.



bring a paper bag for after you two leave the bar and she "leans in".

Anonymous Epi February 02, 2016 12:25 PM  

Trump is more of a Napoleon than a Hitler figure, imo.

Blogger The Other Robot February 02, 2016 12:26 PM  

Did I see that Hillary won by 666 to 661 votes?

That would be an omen!

Anonymous That Would Be Telling February 02, 2016 12:33 PM  

@146 The Other Robot:

Wow, I'd heard that the Iowa Democratic state party was not in good shape, but that few votes total?

Right now The Wall Street Journal has them at 701 to 697 to 8 for O'Malley. For the Republicans, 51,666 (heh), 45,327, 43,165, and 17,395 for Carson.

OpenID sigbouncer February 02, 2016 12:34 PM  

"The only real surprise on the Republican side is that Rubio did much better than anyone expected, including the pollsters."

Rubio didn't surprise me. I called it Trump, Rubio 1-2. But my take was the establishment would bump Cruz down and push Rubio up via microsoft. Don't care what anyone says, the fix is in.

Record turnout among new votes and we're supposed to believe most of them stumped for Rubio? Yeah pull this leg and it plays jingle bells too.

Anonymous cincinnatus February 02, 2016 12:35 PM  

Hi concession speech was the first time I actually heard Trump speak.

I already liked him, but I gained a lot more respect for him.

That speech was awesome.

Also, while I know they media lies through their asses, Trump was the guy the GOPe hated and the media said he had no ground game, and he had no Super PACs I could see, but he still came second.


@111 The Other Robot
I wonder how many Cruz and Rubio voters and others were absolutely positive that Trump would act like a whiny little boy when he got second. The media certainly painted him that way. I don't see his concession speech as doing anything but helping him.

Blogger James Dixon February 02, 2016 12:38 PM  

> Trump is actually the secret Wall Street Candidate and he has hood winked all those who support him.

Seriously? Of course Trump would have Wall Street support. They all know him or have had dealings with him in the past. He's one of them. What he isn't is a banker, which is a slightly different animal.

Anonymous That Would Be Telling February 02, 2016 12:40 PM  

@147 myself: Never mind, the Democratic formula assigned a handful of reps at each caucus, many many more attended them. And Hillary didn't exactly win if those WSJ totals are correct, 5-6 were assigned by a coin toss due to people "disappearing" in the process, and Hillary's reps just happened to call every toss correctly.

Blogger Timmy3 February 02, 2016 12:40 PM  

I suspected that Cruz will have a late surge and I was right. I didn't predict this will happen to Rubio too and within 1 point of Trump. Cruz and Trump combined points is a bare majority for anti-immigration policy. This is both good and not good enough. Trump is imploding. Not good in the big picture.

Blogger Nick S February 02, 2016 12:42 PM  

When it comes down to brass tacks the Wall Street guys will look at Trump and Cruz and pick Trump all day long. He will make them money.

^This^

More importantly, Trump doesn't give a shit about anyone but Trump. He would sell your ass down the river in a heartbeat if he calculated it would be opportune for him. In a few short years, the Wall Street guys could make him money and lots of it.

What is it about self centered greed (covetousness) you people don't get? Trump is not a Nationalist; he's a Trumpist. It's his Achilles Heel and the lobbyists know it's only a matter of timing. If you believe Trump, of all people, is above it all, you might be certifiably insane. You're certainly getting played.

Blogger Josh February 02, 2016 12:42 PM  

Record turnout among new votes and we're supposed to believe most of them stumped for Rubio? Yeah pull this leg and it plays jingle bells too.

You might be the dumbest commenter we've ever had here.

The new voters voted for Trump and Cruz. Rubio got the establishment voters that voted for Romney in 2012.

Blogger unconventional nazi February 02, 2016 12:43 PM  

Bernie Sanders doing so well against Hillary is nothing more than the Dem. primary voters saying, "We don't want Hillary!" The Clinton magic is over. The media wants so desperately to create a narrative that she will be so hard to beat when just the opposite is true.

OpenID sigbouncer February 02, 2016 12:45 PM  

Trump is over. And Cruz will soon be over. Because Cruz (The Trojan Horse) has no chance in winning and the Party knows this.

So of the two establishment candidates (Rubio-Cruz) their pick is Rubio. I don't see Rubio winning either unless is Rubio vs Sanders. Which it could well be.

Blogger Josh February 02, 2016 12:45 PM  

The Clinton magic is over. The media wants so desperately to create a narrative that she will be so hard to beat when just the opposite is true.

What happens when Nevada and South Carolina vote?

Blogger unconventional nazi February 02, 2016 12:49 PM  

Dunno. I'm not saying she won't win. I'm saying there is obviously, shall we say a lack of enthusiasm from the Dem. primary voters for her.

Blogger unconventional nazi February 02, 2016 12:50 PM  

In a general election barring the Repubs. running a completely crap candidate (like they always want to do) she can be beaten easily.

OpenID sigbouncer February 02, 2016 12:50 PM  

>Record turnout among new votes and we're supposed to believe most of them stumped for Rubio? Yeah pull this leg and it plays jingle bells too.

"You might be the dumbest commenter we've ever had here.

The new voters voted for Trump and Cruz. Rubio got the establishment voters that voted for Romney in 2012."


You're calling me dumb and you buy into the diebold voting machines and now Bill Gates team of microsoft doing the counting. Yeah okay genius, GL with that.

Go ahead and believe whatever they are feeding you.

Anonymous farmer Tom February 02, 2016 12:52 PM  

We got the predicted snow storm today. One day after the caucus is over. Bad enough that the boss sent me home for the rest of the day.

I haven't had time to read all the comments yet, But I got this article in my FB feed a few minutes ago, and I think it would be worthwhile for every one of you to read it.

This is how Cruz won. It is very accurate. I was at some of those private meeting including the one with the Liberty/libertarian supporters of Ron Paul last cycle. BTW, I told the Dread Ilk about that meeting a year ago when it happened, so don't give me any s**t about making it up.

I've been watching this stuff transpire closely, and that account is an excellent summary.

And notice something else. Cruz is no slobbering fool. He has the best organization nation wide of any candidate in the race. They are working South Carolina, HARD, and have been for months.

Cruz has $19,000,000 in campaign cash on hand, and is going to spend less time in New Hampshire, and focus on SC.

I know one of the organizers of one of Cruz's PAC's, and the money is pouring in to that PAC. He is a former Ron Paul guy, HATED by the Republican Party for his attacks on Chris Christie, in NJ where he lived, until he recently moved to NC to get away from the tax increases in NJ.

Cruz is in this for the long haul, and he has a far superior national organization to Rubio, and probably better than Trump. According to my sources, their goal is to wear Trump down. Make it so close and so tough, that Trump simply finds it not worth his while to fight in every single state for every single vote.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/ted-cruz-iowa-caucuses-218591

Blogger Salt February 02, 2016 12:52 PM  

And Cruz will soon be over. Because Cruz (The Trojan Horse) has no chance in winning

Cruz can go home now. Sigduncer has spoken.

OpenID sigbouncer February 02, 2016 12:55 PM  

>And Cruz will soon be over. Because Cruz (The Trojan Horse) has no chance in winning

Cruz can go home now. Sigduncer has spoken.

Sigduncer? Really? That's the best you got? No wonder you're a Cruz ball washer.

OpenID sigbouncer February 02, 2016 12:59 PM  

"The new voters voted for Trump and Cruz. Rubio got the establishment voters that voted for Romney in 2012."

And the other flaw with this line of thinking is that Rubio would have polled much higher if this were the case.

OpenID sigbouncer February 02, 2016 1:02 PM  

http://www.infowars.com/trump-supporters-think-microsoft-helped-rubio-cheat-in-iowa/

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/01/31/one-marco-rubios-biggest-financial-backers-tally-iowa-caucuses/

Microsoft, Rubio's #2 Corporate donor over the last 5 years.

Anonymous farmer Tom February 02, 2016 1:03 PM  

BTW, Cruz's $19,000,000 in campaign cash on hand is more that the entire Republican National Committee has. And from what I hear until last night Rubio was down to only a couple of million left, going into NH.

Blogger Sevron February 02, 2016 1:17 PM  

That's one thing that has always surprised me- how little money we're talking about. Wall Street could pour $500 million into this race and write it off from petty cash, but Cruz having $19 million is a huge deal.

Blogger Were-Puppy February 02, 2016 1:19 PM  

@123 Josh
Did you watch Rand drink bourbon on the daily show?
---

Nope, but that's a + to the like column

Anonymous VFM #6306 February 02, 2016 1:25 PM  

The Microsoft thing: at least the "12%" shift from Trump to Rubio doesn't hold a lot of water for me. Rubio finished second in my precinct based on hand-counted votes, so if there were shenannigans, it took place at the counting level, not the data entry. When Trump's numbers were announced, his supporters didn't cheer like the supporters for the other candidates: primarily because Trump's machine does not appear to be an insider machine: his people just showed up off the street, wanting to vote. They didn't give a damn about the process.

I could totally see how Rubio would win a few more votes than he was supposed to: the first rule about Party Club is NO INSIDER TALKS about Party Club. No Microsoft necessary.

The bigger surprise is that he couldn't Romney the thing altogether.

Blogger Nate February 02, 2016 1:33 PM  

" The big issues are trade and immigration, of which Cruz has very little history on."

See you guys keep saying this.. like if you repreat it enough it will be true.

here's a clue kids.

If it were true... Trump would've won in a landslide.

Trump moved immigration from a no-issue to an issue.

it is by no means the only issue that matters to the US public.

OpenID sigbouncer February 02, 2016 1:36 PM  

Microsoft founder Bill Gates is a member of Mark Zuckerberg’s immigration lobbying firm FWD.us and former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer is a co-chair of the immigration lobbying firm the Partnership for a New American Economy—along with Fox News’s founder Rupert Murdoch.

Both immigration lobbying firms have endorsed and lobbied for Marco Rubio’s 2015 immigration expansion bill—known as the Immigration Innovation Act, or I-Sqaured—which would have tripled the issuances of low-wage H-1B guest worker visas.

According to USCIS data analyzed by ComputerWorld’s Patrick Thibodeau, Microsoft is the 12th biggest user of the H-1B program—having brought in 1,048 foreign workers on H-1Bs in 2013.

Microsoft’s reliance upon imported foreign labor comes at a time of large-scale layoffs for the corporation. In 2014, Microsoft announced its plans to lay off 18,000 workers at the same time the company was lobbying to increase the H-1B program, prompting strong condemnation from U.S. Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL), a top opponent of Marco Rubio’s H-1B expansion plan.

In 2007, Bill Gates even testified before Congress and called for an unlimited number skilled foreign workers—particularly in engineering—to be admitted into the country. “My basic view is that the country should welcome as many of those people as we can get,” Gates declared. “Even though it may not be realistic, I don’t think there should be any limit.”

In stark contrast to Rubio’s position, GOP frontrunner Donald Trump, who is self-funding his campaign, has taken a firm position against H-1B “job theft.” Trump has told Breitbart News that Rubio ought to “immediately rescind his sponsorship of the I-Squared bill and apologize to every Floridian for endorsing it… [as well as] return the money he [Rubio] has received from Silicon Valley CEOs and to donate the money to a charity helping unemployed Americans whose jobs Rubio has helped to destroy.


Plenty enough indicators there for me to believe the fix is in. And it won't the first time it's happened as we all know. Fool me once...

Blogger Nate February 02, 2016 1:41 PM  

not to kick poor SigBouncer when he's down.. but oh look... Trump won the Baby Boomer vote... and got his ass kicked among Millennials and Gen X.


http://graphics.wsj.com/elections/2016/iowa-caucus-results/

OpenID sigbouncer February 02, 2016 1:45 PM  

"not to kick poor SigBouncer when he's down.. but oh look... Trump won the Baby Boomer vote... and got his ass kicked among Millennials and Gen X.

http://graphics.wsj.com/elections/2016/iowa-caucus-results/"

I'm not down Nate. Too much of a realist to be down over this. It wasn't totally unexpected.

And remember our discussion was an across the board thing. As in every state. Iowa is too small of a sample size for you to declare victory. We both know this.

OpenID sigbouncer February 02, 2016 1:51 PM  

And besides that I'm of the opinion that microsoft rigged it. In which case flipping the GenX and Millennials over to Rubio is what would makes sense.

Anonymous rubberducky February 02, 2016 1:57 PM  

I'm very unconvinced about the establishment hating or fearing Ted Cruz. I know for a certainty they hate and fear Trump. Trump drives them off the rails out of their minds.

Cruz has *always* done their bidding. All of his protests and caterwauling have come safely after the deals have been done. Has ever been punished for his transgressions?

And follow the money. When he was in leadership at the NRSC, he handed out political money to the establishment picks and against the grassroots picks. And even now, he's coming out of Iowa with a huge war chest in cash, and a deep multi-state organization. IOW, he sure as hell does not look like any insurgent candidate, but *exactly* like an establishment one.

Blogger Nate February 02, 2016 2:04 PM  

"And remember our discussion was an across the board thing."

did you ever bother to google it? if you would bother to google it you would see it is an across the board thing.

Also..

Trump is up something 50 million points in New Hampshire. As I was saying 3 days ago... this is just the start.

Anonymous farmer Tom February 02, 2016 2:06 PM  

#174, Did you read my link?

Anonymous Danby February 02, 2016 2:12 PM  

Trump drives the media and tech guys crazy because he made immigration an issue in this election. He drives the media crazy because he exposes just how corrupt they are. He annoys the oligarchs because he's interfering in their game.
Cruz drives the GOP establishment crazy, because he refused to be co-opted. He's breaking their balls and will restructure them out of their sinecures if he wins.
Rubio drives the other bottoms crazy cause he's cuter than they are.

OpenID sigbouncer February 02, 2016 2:18 PM  

"did you ever bother to google it? if you would bother to google it you would see it is an across the board thing."

No I didn't. I saw where the link said it was an Iowa caucus and assumed that's what it was.

I'll take you're word for it and admit you were right then.

Anonymous Leonidas February 02, 2016 2:22 PM  

@165:

BTW, Cruz's $19,000,000 in campaign cash on hand is more that the entire Republican National Committee has. And from what I hear until last night Rubio was down to only a couple of million left, going into NH.

That's simply jaw dropping. I'm more than a little amazed that the entire RNC has so little cash on hand. I would, however, like to know what their annual expenditures and revenue are like. My suspicion is that it still dwarf's the Cruz campaign and that they have so little on hand because they're spending it. But I'm prepared to be wrong on that one.

Even so, it's a drop in the bucket compared to what Trump could throw at it if he decides to - which, based upon the quarterly reports he dropped on Sunday night, he's prepared to do when it makes sense. His spending ramped up dramatically last quarter, and I would expect it to do so again this quarter.

Anonymous farmer Tom February 02, 2016 2:22 PM  


Beating the ethanol lobby

Anonymous rubberducky February 02, 2016 2:23 PM  

@176 yes, and I'm very appreciative of it. I think it was very helpful. My viewpoint is from Washington DC, and dealings here especially in the Senate and the political money trail. I did write a long reply that broke down Ted's moves on Gang Of Eight, Corker-Cardin and Obamatrade, plus his NRSC work. It was not favorable to the idea that Ted stands athwart the establishment (he only has in word, never in deed). My submission was rejected for its length, which is understandable. This is not the forum for such a posting, I understand. Perhaps I'll blog one and link it if I have time, and do it right.

Anonymous farmer Tom February 02, 2016 2:24 PM  

Sorry, didn't realize my first link didn't work.

the full story

Blogger Josh February 02, 2016 2:35 PM  

And the other flaw with this line of thinking is that Rubio would have polled much higher if this were the case.

Unless they made up their minds the day before or day of the caucus, which they did according to entrance polls.

Do you ever bother to do any research before vomiting all over a comment thread?

Blogger Were-Puppy February 02, 2016 2:39 PM  

@131 That Would Be Telling

So, yeah, we'd fight him tooth and nail if he runs, although he would seem to have a very poor chance of success. And "we" is a whole lot more than "the NRA".
--

That's why I brought it up regarding Bloomberg. He's been dishonest in his gun control dealings and everything anyone who reads NRA magazines is well aware of. I've lost count of how many mayors bailed on his dumb organization before it folded. He's not going to win anything, but peel off some votes. So if he runs 3rd party, I'm thinking it's Bernie type voters. But he'll never win due to NRA and other type organizations mobilizing to get the word out.

Blogger Were-Puppy February 02, 2016 2:42 PM  

@138 Sam Lively

Meanwhile Trump is hated by the oligarchs because he's descended from their midst Prometheus style to goof off with the mortals and talk crap about his peers.
---

Knowing the dangers of assuming, it's still hard for me not to imagine Trump knows how the real game behind the elections is played. I halfway imagine maybe some of those other tycoons ticked him off, and he's doing this to kick their asses by stealing their toys (politicians).

OpenID sigbouncer February 02, 2016 2:42 PM  

"Unless they made up their minds the day before or day of the caucus, which they did according to entrance polls."

Keep believing in those fairy tales by the mainstream media Peter Pan. They are only there to set up the narrative. @164

Blogger Were-Puppy February 02, 2016 2:52 PM  

@143 Sheila4g

I believe Trump is claiming to plan on a wall across the entire border - could be mistaken.
--

One time I saw him mentioned that you wouldn't to put a wall across the entire border but use the natural barriers also.


It may be more "gut" than "rational," and I try to be rational, but I can't comfortably get behind Cruz.
---

I can't get behind him either for various reasons after researching him recently.

Anonymous JustBob February 02, 2016 2:56 PM  

Do these numbers look too manufactured? Not even mentioning the coin flips...

484 reps
- 60 missing
- 5 O'malley
=
419

x = Hillary
y = Bernie = x-60 -1

2x-60=420 -> 2x=480 -> x=240
y = 240-60=180 - 1= 179

Actual numbers in article Hillary = 240, Bernie = 179

a difference of the missing 60 + 1, hmmm.




http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/02/02/sometimes-iowa-democrats-award-caucus-delegates-coin-flip/79680342/

Blogger Were-Puppy February 02, 2016 2:58 PM  

@146 The Other Robot
Did I see that Hillary won by 666 to 661 votes?

That would be an omen!
---

I'll have to stop calling her Hitlery and start calling her Hellary

OpenID sigbouncer February 02, 2016 2:58 PM  

>"It may be more "gut" than "rational," and I try to be rational, but I can't comfortably get behind Cruz."
---

"I can't get behind him either for various reasons after researching him recently."

I'll write in Trump on general principle. No way Cruz gets my vote. Not a chance.

Blogger W.LindsayWheeler February 02, 2016 3:03 PM  

Just heard Ted Cruz, "Those who fight for the Constitution"! Yet, this joker is not even eligible to run for President. Here are two different links with the info that Cruz is NOT a Natural Born citizen:

John Roland
http://www.constitution.org/abus/pres_elig.htm

Examiner, Cruz not citizen at birth.
http://www.examiner.com/article/proof-that-ted-cruz-did-not-become-a-us-citizen-at-birth

Blogger Were-Puppy February 02, 2016 3:03 PM  

@155 sigbouncer

Trump is over. And Cruz will soon be over. Because Cruz (The Trojan Horse) has no chance in winning and the Party knows this.

---

Really? From what I can see, the winner of Iowa usually doesn't get the nomination. So yeah, Cruz has his work cut out.

Trump is in the same place as before. Why call it over. I thought it would be over if Trump won Iowa, but he didn't. I find it peculiar to say Trump is doomed. Oh wait, they say that 24/7 all over the place :P

Blogger Josh February 02, 2016 3:06 PM  

Keep believing in those fairy tales by the mainstream media Peter Pan. They are only there to set up the narrative.

Going to save this one for use next time to link to a story.

OpenID sigbouncer February 02, 2016 3:08 PM  

@155 sigbouncer

>Trump is over. And Cruz will soon be over. Because Cruz (The Trojan Horse) has no chance in winning and the Party knows this.

---

"Really? From what I can see, the winner of Iowa usually doesn't get the nomination. So yeah, Cruz has his work cut out.

Trump is in the same place as before. Why call it over. I thought it would be over if Trump won Iowa, but he didn't. I find it peculiar to say Trump is doomed. Oh wait, they say that 24/7 all over the place :P"


My reasons for saying this are @148 and @164

The fix is in.

Blogger Nate February 02, 2016 3:09 PM  

"I believe Trump is claiming to plan on a wall across the entire border - could be mistaken."

This is correct.

The wall will also have a big beautiful door in it so he can let everyone he deports right back in legally.

Somehow trump fan always leaves that last part out.

OpenID sigbouncer February 02, 2016 3:11 PM  

I mean seriously. If you want any election credibility. You don't have the vote counters (microsoft) supporting any candidate (Rubio).

The vote counters must be neutral.

Blogger Hank Brown February 02, 2016 3:18 PM  

Vote rigging isn't theory, but fact. I don't trust Trump, but his votes were awarded to Rubio in Iowa.

Blogger Were-Puppy February 02, 2016 3:20 PM  

@194 sigbouncer
My reasons for saying this are @148 and @164

The fix is in.
---

Maybe so. I still consider Trump the last Hail Mary pass. Thing about Hail Mary is a lot of times they drop the ball.

Blogger W.LindsayWheeler February 02, 2016 3:29 PM  

Nate, he says that because Americans don't like stridency. It is for American consumption that hates extremes. America is not going to vote for an extremists of the right. (They will elect an extremist on the Left, Bernie is a favorite.) An extreme leftist to a conservative is just a normal leftist to them.

Trump is pandering to the middle, saying he is not an extremist. It will take a couple of years to get all the illegals out of this country. We have some 20 million of them. Just now, some 500,000 student visas were overstayed last year. And Drudge reports that the Feds are going to drop their monitoring of the Southern Border by 50%. It's a mess.

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