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Friday, February 12, 2016

The decline of the West

I've read part of Spengler's magnum opus, and to be honest, despite being a Hesse fan, I have a very hard time with all the German mystical babble. But in light of recent events, I feel as if I should probably return to it soon.
Political Epochs in Autumn and Winter

    1. Domination of Money (“Democracy”). Economic powers permeating the political forms and authorities. 1800-2000 AD.

    2. Victory of force-politics over money. Increasing primitiveness of political forms. Inward decline of the nations into a formless population, and constitution thereof as an Imperium of gradually-increasing crudity of despotism. 2000-2200 AD.

    3. Private and family policies of individual leaders. The world as spoil. Egypticism, Mandarinism, Byzantinism. Historyless stiffening and enfeeblement even of the imperial machinery, against young peoples eager for spoil, or alien conquerors. Primitive human conditions slowly thrust up into the highly-civilized mode of living. After 2200 AD.

The Future, Echoing Roman Civilization

In the Winter of Roman politics there was a shift from the Roman Republic to Caesarism, or government led by a charismatic strongman. Eventually, the idea of representation broke down and there was a shift to bloody “force politics.”

Of course, our current government is modeled on the Roman system. There are even similarities between the two dominant parties. In Rome, the two dominant parties were the Optimates and Populares, the Republicans and Democrats of their day. This form of representative government eventually stops working because the system of checks and balances interfere with each other, causing gridlock. Force politics (killing people) eventually comes along to break the gridlock. (As an aside, some historians say it’s possible we entered this era in 1963 with the assassination of JFK by the military-industrial complex.) Arguably, this predictive model is spot-on with the current situation in the Western world. So, if Spengler’s model is correct, we are awaiting the rise of a dictator to come along and smash the rotten edifice of democracy sometime this century.
Regardless, I very much doubt that Oswald Spengler could possibly have imagined the descendants of his co-nationals being anywhere nearly as stupid as they have been under the suicidal leadership of Angela Merkel.

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85 Comments:

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother February 12, 2016 2:26 PM  

What role will technology play looking deep into the force politics era?

Blogger Mr.MantraMan February 12, 2016 2:30 PM  

If it helps read Spengler's monograph "Teknics" prior to reading DotW

Blogger tweell February 12, 2016 2:44 PM  

The last century of the Roman Republic was rather chaotic, featuring the breakdown of tradition, law and multiple civil wars. I'd put us in the republic end game, Caesar hasn't taken over yet (at least overtly).

Blogger The Observer February 12, 2016 2:48 PM  

In the last days of the Republic, the situation was pretty much that of low-grade civil war between the Optimates and Populares - for the elite, it was bribery and assassination, for the common Roman, it was street fights, marches, and murder.

I'm suddenly reminded of people being harassed by Black Panthers at voting booths, BLM protestors, and looters running amok in the chaos.

Considering that Caesar, followed by Augustus, began the Pax Romana, one of the 200 most peaceful and prosperous years of human history, it seems better than the alternative. If Trump is the new Caesar, then one hopes that he lives up to the man's other deeds. A benevolent dictator could do much better than this.

Blogger tweell February 12, 2016 2:51 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Anonymous A Visitor February 12, 2016 2:56 PM  

You know, future prediction is always hard. Period. I do not envy those who attempt to do it. They are often ridiculed for what they got wrong and what they got right is ignored.

For a recent example, watch Blade Runner or Back to the Future Part II. See what they got right and wrong.

Anonymous Elite Rope February 12, 2016 2:59 PM  

@4

And lo, the Churchians plotted to trap Vox Day and asked him thus: "Is it lawful to pay taxes to Trump?"

And Vox doth replied, "You evil cuckservatives! Why do you try to trap me with poorly designed Xanatos Gambits? Give to God what is God's, and to Trump what is Trump's."

And so, amazed at their own faggotry, the Churchians gave their wives over to Trump to be railed.

Blogger CarpeOro February 12, 2016 3:01 PM  

tweell wrote:The last century of the Roman Republic was rather chaotic, featuring the breakdown of tradition, law and multiple civil wars. I'd put us in the republic end game, Caesar hasn't taken over yet (at least overtly).

We haven't seen the first factional war yet - unless you are counting the War Between The States. Though maybe an argument could be made for that as starting point the cycle downward.

OpenID peppermintfrosted February 12, 2016 3:03 PM  

Rather than read Spengler, and the other early 20th century historians, read Revilo Olive, the last honest classics professor, reviewing Spengler. And rather than read him directly, his book is of course available in searchable PDF, read my excerpts at https://peppermintfrosted.wordpress.com/2015/03/02/history-and-the-historians/

Blogger Azimus February 12, 2016 3:05 PM  

So what season is the present Arab culture in Spengler's model? They appear to have had a full 4 seasons already, and are just zombies now? Or would Spengler say this is a new cycle starting for the Arab world? Or is this the last stage of winter?

Blogger Hostem Populi February 12, 2016 3:06 PM  

I fear that Trump is not Caesar, but Tiberius Gracchus.

Blogger Skylark Thibedeau February 12, 2016 3:06 PM  

I find his writing to be a bit dry. It's like reading his Contemporary Delbrucker's 'The Barbarian Invasions' with all its Prussian mysticism except i don't think Hans saw the world Today with the Descendants of the Belgae, Helvetii, Lombards, Franks, Saxons, and Alemanni who are being invaded from the South instead of the East.

Blogger Skylark Thibedeau February 12, 2016 3:16 PM  

I was at a party in college with some West German exchange students. Someone suggested their national anthem was still Duetschland uber Alles and they were all apologetic. no no no nein "That was hitler's anthem." But it was the anthem of the original german Unification movement in 1848 long befor Hitler. Maybe the Germans are going to get back into that "Deutschlandlied" mindset due to this invasion.

Anonymous Toddy Cat February 12, 2016 3:18 PM  

I like RoK, and this article seems to be basically right, but for God's sake, Kennedy was killed by a Communist, and if there was a conspiracy, Castro was behind it. Sad to see New Left/KGB lies and disinformation penetrating even into bastions of (relative) sanity like the Alt-Right. Just because the current edition of the U.S. Government sucks is no reason to blame it for everything bad that has happened in the past.

Blogger MycroftJones February 12, 2016 3:28 PM  

Spengler is ably summarized by Yockey in his book "Imperium".

However, once I read John Glubb's book, "The Fate of Empires and Search for Survival", it is much shorter and to the point. I feel no more need to revisit Yockey/Spengler. Instead of hundreds of pages, Glubb gets to brass tacks, military man that he is, I think his book is less than 100 pages, possibly only 60. Packed full of example and anecdote in support of his thesis.

Blogger Cecil Henry February 12, 2016 3:29 PM  

Spengler is an interesting read.

But this is the issue: We need direction and courage, NOT fatalism.

How is Spengler anything but an appeal to fatalism. How is that useful. In itself alone, its not.

Blogger MycroftJones February 12, 2016 3:30 PM  

Hostem Populi wrote:I fear that Trump is not Caesar, but Tiberius Gracchus.

Ah, so I wasn't the only one wondering if Trump will be our Julius Caesar. Read Caesar's biography carefully, we may need a Caesar, but the transition wasn't pleasant.

Anonymous John Steed February 12, 2016 3:40 PM  

1. I`ve long thought of the stages of civilization as the same as organisms: birth, youth, maturity, decline, death--not as four seasons. 2.@3 It would seem that American history shows a preference for rule of the group rather than rule of the one. 3.@16 Yes the Eastern Roman Empire did reinvent it`s self.

Anonymous BGKB February 12, 2016 3:46 PM  

What role will technology play looking deep into the force politics era?

What level of tech advantage would allow the side afraid to deal with a spider to win?

Anonymous Strauss Howe fan February 12, 2016 4:07 PM  

I actually find the work of Strauss and Howe much more accurate...
They predicted a great deal of the Millennial gen behavior early on, among other things.
We're in the midst of the fourth turning, and so far, I find the pattern intact.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory

Blogger Ron Winkleheimer February 12, 2016 4:33 PM  

I, for one, welcome our new Empress, Ivanka Trump.

http://www.mielofon.com/family/ivanka_trump/ivanka_trump_02.jpg

Blogger praetorian February 12, 2016 4:35 PM  

I have a very hard time with all the German mystical babble

Quite relieving to read a super-intelligence say that.

Can you say the same thing about Kierkegaard?

Blogger CM February 12, 2016 4:39 PM  

So Trump is Augustus with his reformation back to solid virtues and outright imperialism?

Blogger Rusty Fife February 12, 2016 4:41 PM  

Strauss Howe fan wrote:I actually find the work of Strauss and Howe much more accurate...

They predicted a great deal of the Millennial gen behavior early on, among other things.

We're in the midst of the fourth turning, and so far, I find the pattern intact.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory


Perform a Fourier transform on the events; the higher frequency waves are Strauss Howe and the lower frequency (Turnings) are Spengler. The difference between a 250yr period and 320yr period is not that great and can be likely accounted for by longer lifespans.

Blogger J Van Stry February 12, 2016 4:41 PM  

Why would the 'military-industrial' complex kill Kennedy? He was running a huge arms buildup. They were making bank off of him, they would never have killed him.

Blogger Latigo3 February 12, 2016 4:43 PM  

It may have been mentioned already, but in recent years I have been looking for signs of this, I wonder if the rise of Donald Trump isn't similar in type to the rise of Julius Caesar?
Even though he hasn't conquered Gaul, Trump has become a big dog in business. There have always been ruthless people in all facets of life, yet never have I seen such a perfect setting for the rise of someone like this. In dealing with ruthless people, they can be trusted only as far as they can be thrown. It should be interesting. I see so many aspects, entire groups of radio talk show hosts seem like modern day Cicero's.
Vox,
Appreciate all that you have put out there over the years, it has helped tremendously.

Blogger J Van Stry February 12, 2016 4:43 PM  

@24, he may very well be.

Blogger J Van Stry February 12, 2016 4:45 PM  

@27 People forget how much control organized crime has over many aspects of the construction industry in NYC. These are people that WILL kill you, no matter who you are, to get their way.
Trump has been dealing with them, rather successfully, for some years now (and probably why he carries a gun on his person).

Blogger Young Heaving Bosoms of Liberty February 12, 2016 4:46 PM  

Blogger: spams comments from folks like Beau. Doesn't spam comments in Arabic.

OpenID denektenorsk February 12, 2016 4:48 PM  

I, for one, welcome our new Empress, Ivanka Trump.

http://www.mielofon.com/family/ivanka_trump/ivanka_trump_02.jpg


Those are some good... genes.

Blogger buwaya February 12, 2016 5:10 PM  

The more immediately relevant German in the modern case is Joseph Schumpeter (OK Austrian, but he spoke German).
The Euro-American economies will continue to stagnate for a while longer due to the rule of bureaucratic sclerosis. But there is a lot of value left, still to destroy.
"Theres a great deal of ruin in a nation"

Blogger buwaya February 12, 2016 5:13 PM  

"I'm suddenly reminded of people being harassed by Black Panthers at voting booths, BLM protestors, and looters running amok in the chaos."

This all is not unknown in US history, and far worse at various times than today. As signs and portents go, not very significant.
There are other signs and portents to watch.

Anonymous RedJack February 12, 2016 5:17 PM  

I don't know of Trump is Ceasar. I have him more of a Crassus. Sanders is one of the Grachi brothers.

Which means we are nearing the next phase. If the economy finally craters, it will usher in the a lot of pain and could lead to war. Bush followed by Obama has done little but to prime the opposing sides for a battle.

Blogger Salt February 12, 2016 5:27 PM  

RedJack wrote:I don't know of Trump is Ceasar. I have him more of a Crassus. Sanders is one of the Grachi brothers.

I question whether we have one more cycle of a socialist in the White House to go.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/02/11/poll-millenials-prefer-socialism-over-capitalism/

Blogger Were-Puppy February 12, 2016 5:37 PM  

@14 Toddy Cat

Just because the current edition of the U.S. Government sucks is no reason to blame it for everything bad that has happened in the past.
---

There must be a name for that. It's almost like the year zero that SJWs suffer, but it is somewhat retroactive.

Blogger Were-Puppy February 12, 2016 5:40 PM  

@18 John Steed

1. I`ve long thought of the stages of civilization as the same as organisms: birth, youth, maturity, decline, death--not as four seasons.
---

I've sometimes thought along these lines. Never fully developed the idea though.

For instance, a bodies immune system deals with a virus, or that body will become infected and possibly die.

If the US is considered in the same way, then the invasion would be like the virus which is damaging the body.

Not sure if this makes any sense :P

Blogger Were-Puppy February 12, 2016 5:43 PM  

@21 Ron Winkleheimer
I, for one, welcome our new Empress, Ivanka Trump.
---

Especially compared to that MAN-HANDED sausage packing Mooch.

Blogger Nathan Wright February 12, 2016 5:59 PM  

I'm about half-way through volume 2. Spengler's idea of Western decline comes from his conception of the Great Cultures as living organisms that follow roughly similar life-cycles. Each culture is based on expression and development of a unique world-feeling, which Spengler analogizes to Goethe's idea of the development of plants. It is conceptually challenging for those of us used to a mechanistic/materialistic worldview, but it's rewarding.

Spengler contrasts his method to the usual Ancient-Middle-Modern historical framework, which he criticizes as arbitrary and just wrong. You can see his point, because the standard framework seems infected with leftism, ie the idea of "progress" as underpinning world history. If I end up home-schooling my kids, I would consider using Spengler as the basis for world-history. His analysis is that our own "Faustian" civilization is near its end, having lasted from about 1000AD. The "Classical" emanated the Mycenaean cities around 1000BC, and was largely fossilized around the birth of Christ. The "Magian" emanated from the middle-east starting around the birth of Christ, producing the Abrahamic religions. Of course there is interplay between the cultures, with for example the Faustian culture adopting Christian forms of the Magian, but trans-valuing according to its own world feeling.

It's an incredible book - highly recommended.

Blogger Nick S February 12, 2016 6:08 PM  

I expect in the our winter we'll see a blizzard of "enlightened" snowflakes blotting out the Son.

Blogger Nathan Wright February 12, 2016 6:18 PM  

Azimus wrote:So what season is the present Arab culture in Spengler's model? They appear to have had a full 4 seasons already, and are just zombies now? Or would Spengler say this is a new cycle starting for the Arab world? Or is this the last stage of winter?

Spengler doesn't recognizes an "Arab culture" as one of the Great Cultures. He mentions Classical, Magian, Faustian, Indian/Vedic, Chinese, Mexican, and Russian. Islam was the final stage of the Magian culture, analogous to Puritanism in the Faustian culture. The Magian world-feeling is gone, fossilized, having lasted from around the birth of Christ to 1000AD. This is why all the great achievements of Islamic civilization are more than a millennium old. Basically, the Arabs of today don't merit so much as a mention in a 2-volume book of world history.

I found it surprising that Spengler mentions the Russian as its own Great Culture, and the youngest. It should be coming into its full flowering in the first half of our current millennium.

Blogger Were-Puppy February 12, 2016 6:21 PM  

OT: Jim Gilmore Suspends His Campaign

Anonymous Haxo Angmark February 12, 2016 6:27 PM  

I don't think there's much instruction to be gotten from Spengler's metaphysical speculations. More useful to view the past 3,000 years as a series of struggles between the Universalist Tikkun Olam Jews and a parallel series of particularist nations/empires:

1) 1st Jewish assault on Western Civ: as described by Josephus in THE JEWISH WAR; Jews defeated, forced into diaspora

2) Jews spin off Christianity, which eventually rots Rome from w/in, leading to destruction of the Western Empire by external/internal "barbarians", c. 400 AD

3) semitic Jews spin off Islam, c. 700 AD (at about same time as Khazar genesis of ashkenazic Jewry); and, after 400 year campaign, defeat the Christian Crusaders and destroy the Eastern Empire - fall of Constantinople - as well

4) Islam - intertwined with organized Jewry - then overruns much of southern Europe, Spain etc., until finally defeated @ Vienna, 1683

5) with Islam/Jewry in recession, 1700-1900, White Western/Christiandom overruns and imperializes most of the planet

6) Jews now spin off 2 new anti-Western formulations: Zionist racial nationalism - to gain a physical base of operations - and Communism, to infiltrate and attack the West from w/in...both via violent revolution, when possible, and/or via Long March Through the Institutions

7) Zion, working through various hired agents - Churchill, in particular - sets up a fratricidal new 30 Years War among the White nations, which both collapses the White empires and enables the Jews themselves (Russia, for a time) and their ideological adherants (e.g., China) to take over half the planet

8) after a 70-year, partly violent/part ideological struggle, the Judeo-marxist regimes rot and collapse...leaving the Jews, however, in control of a territorial base (Zion-in-Palestine) and with a firm grip on the European and Anglo-American banking system

9) which, in a convulsive final effort to achieve the Tikkun Olam, they use to debt-bomb and destroy (aka "globalize") the remnant White nations. This struggle currently in progress with outcome uncertain. Certain advances in technology - nuclear weapons in particular - make the situation incomprehensible in Spenglerian turns. I suspect that the Jews have finally decided to Rule All...or Destroy All

Blogger Joe Keenan February 12, 2016 6:47 PM  

Decline of the West? You can't be serious. We've faced worse than this and won. Chesterbelloc called Islam, the Scourge of Christendom. When the West turns from Logos, it is punished. It is pilloried, Islam is the knout that brings the Christians Home. Great times are ahead, in the past it was Catholics alone who saved Europe, now we have our separated brethern beginning to stand with us. Could of used you guys at Malta, Lepanto, 1st and 2nd Vienna.....just sayin....

Blogger Mr.MantraMan February 12, 2016 6:51 PM  

We won't know Haxo till the actual calls for freedom from the remnant of "whites" is made if it is rule all or destroy all.

I personally find Zionism in some fashion inspiring in an evolutionary system. The Zionists are magians yet practical, though their Blank Slate Theory as dogma is silly.

Blogger Nathan Wright February 12, 2016 6:54 PM  

Cecil Henry wrote:Spengler is an interesting read.

But this is the issue: We need direction and courage, NOT fatalism.

How is Spengler anything but an appeal to fatalism. How is that useful. In itself alone, its not.


I wouldn't say he appeals to fatalism, and I think his method is far preferable to the materialist/Marxist/utilitarian approaches that seem to be the default for our (and his, actually) contemporaries. In contrast to the materialists, Spengler actually talks about how cultures seem to arise suddenly, as if spontaneously, with the causes completely hidden to us. He makes the analogy to the phenomenon of "punctuated equilibrium" in biology -- when something new emerges, it happens almost instantaneously in historical time.

There are certain implications, for sure, but I don't think fatalism is one of them. Look at it this way, the Germans were the core of Western culture, and its peak, and Spengler comes out of that tradition. The West isn't dead yet, but we might need some external inspiration, like the Irish monks transcribing Ancient Greek manuscripts, to get past our own self-imposed logic traps.

Blogger BunE22 February 12, 2016 7:05 PM  

OT: Jeez. Scalzi's Redshirts was just a Jeopardy question. Jeopardy is dead to me.

Blogger Cogitans Iuvenis February 12, 2016 7:14 PM  

@4

Considering that Caesar, followed by Augustus, began the Pax Romana, one of the 200 most peaceful and prosperous years of human history, it seems better than the alternative

In retrospect the bloody years of the last century it indeed looked like a peaceful era but only if you weren't caught up in the frequent and bloody purges conducted by the Julio-Claudian emperors.

Blogger Hostem Populi February 12, 2016 7:17 PM  

@47 What's also being overlooked is the IQ shredding effects the civil wars and the Julio-Claudian purges had on the Roman upper classes. Everyone who had the Roman virtues that made Rome great was selected out of the population, and what was left were weaklings. It's no coincidence that the Five Good Emperors came from Spain and Domitian and the emperors who followed him hailed from the Balkans. There was no imperial timber left in Rome.

Blogger Cogitans Iuvenis February 12, 2016 7:37 PM  

@11

@11

I'd say Sanders betters fits the mold of one of the Gracchi brothers.

@48

I agree, the Roman empire only looks glorious in the vein of what their neighbors at the time and the horror that came after their collapse. But in my opinion the Republic was far greater. Whereas the Roman empire had naught but scattered barbarians and the Parthians, who if they can be measured by their descendants today I don't know if we would find them all that impressive, the Rome during the days of the Republic had to contend with civilizations like Carthage, the Greek city states, the Ptolemaic empire etc. They stood, and prevailed, amongst giants. The Roman republic that stood against Hannibal probably would not have succumbed to the barbarian invasions.

Blogger Hostem Populi February 12, 2016 8:25 PM  

@50 Sanders as a Gracchi doesn't really work, because he is in no way, shape, or form an aristocrat.

Anonymous Quartermaster February 12, 2016 8:39 PM  

@8
Indeed, it can be made. Lincoln refounded the Republic, turning it from a voluntary union to one held together by force majeur. Without Lincoln's war, the welfare state and Obama are not possible.

@13
I lived in Germany for 6 years. In the late 60s, the Deutschland Uber Alles was still the national anthem.

@25
The JFK maladminstration cut back a lot on DOD acquisitions. MacNamara was an abortion as SecDef.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash February 12, 2016 8:54 PM  

Skylark Thibedeau wrote:I was at a party in college with some West German exchange students. Someone suggested their national anthem was still Duetschland uber Alles and they were all apologetic. no no no nein "That was Hitler's anthem." But it was the anthem of the original German Unification movement in 1848 long before Hitler.

It still is, but they removed the original first and second verses. Way to Ethno-Nationalist:

Deutschland, Deutschland über alles,
Über alles in der Welt,
Wenn es stets zu Schutz und Trutze
Brüderlich zusammenhält.
Von der Maas bis an die Memel,
Von der Etsch bis an den Belt,
Deutschland, Deutschland über alles,
Über alles in der Welt!

Germany, Germany above everything,
Above everything in the world,
when, for protection and defense,
it always stands brotherly together .
From the Meuse to the Memel,
From the Adige to the Belt,
Germany, Germany above everything,
Above everything in the world!


Deutsche Frauen, deutsche Treue,
Deutscher Wein und deutscher Sang
Sollen in der Welt behalten
Ihren alten schönen Klang,
Uns zu edler Tat begeistern
Unser ganzes Leben lang.
Deutsche Frauen, deutsche Treue,
Deutscher Wein und deutscher Sang!

German women, German loyalty,
German wine and German song
Shall retain in the world
Their old beautiful chime
And inspire us to noble deeds
During all of our life.
German women, German loyalty,
German wine and German song!

OpenID luciussomesuch February 12, 2016 8:54 PM  

"I don't know of Trump is Ceasar. I have him more of a Crassus. Sanders is one of the Grachi brothers."

--OMG. I just had the most amazing flashback. I hadn't thought about this in forever, and certainly not in this election, but I remember it perfectly now.

The first speech I ever gave in competitive Extemporaneous Speaking in high school (9th grade, 1989) I compared Trump to Crassus. The topic was something like, "Should a businessman become President?" or whatever.

Perhaps these sorts of recollections sound flakey, but it just bowled me over when that mention of Crassus hit me. I had read "Julius Caesar" for my own edification and I was all agog at name-dropping the First Triumvirate. Probably my speech went off on who knows what tangents (though I got 2nd place in the tournament).

But by God I was 14 and I actually spoke and said Crassus=Trump. Now it blows my mind.

NB: of course, I hope he turns out much better, for himself and for us, than Crassus.

Blogger Rantor February 12, 2016 9:03 PM  

I too like John Glubb's perspective, herewith his sequence of development for empires:

The Age of Pioneers (outburst) The Age of Conquests
The Age of Commerce
The Age of Affluence
The Age of Intellect
The Age of Decadence.
(e) Decadence is marked by:
Defensiveness
Pessimism
Materialism
Frivolity
An influx of foreigners
The Welfare State
A weakening of religion.
(f) Decadence is due to:
Too long a period of wealth and power Selfishness
Love of money
The loss of a sense of duty

The average empire lasts 250 years. Our decadence grows along with mass immigration, expansion of welfare, etc. Question is whether Trump (or anyone) can delay the decay.

Blogger Tom Roberts February 12, 2016 9:05 PM  

“People are more likely to feel the shadow of the future if you bring the future closer.”

When Branden closed out Honoring the Self (1984) he sent a solemn message, “This Earth is the distant star we must find a way to reach.” What we have here is a failure to see. That is, a new phenomenon with which we view ourselves that is inextricably linked to a new (and bonafide) human development paradigm. So enthralled with some of the material that author Steven Johnson put into his book Emergence (2001, Emergence The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Software) that it became required reading (for reasons I’m not sure of) by the spooks that walk the halls in Langley, VA. On emergence, Murry Gell-Mann (Nobel Prize in Physics 1969 TED Talks) said this on emergent properties and the fundamental laws of physics: “You don’t need something more, to get something more, that’s what emergence means. Life can emerge from a lot of accidents and from physics and chemistry. The human mind can arise from neurobiology, and a lot of accidents.” Now, the study of complex theory is a uniquely American phenomenon that began in the 80’s at the Santa Fe institute. Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) and complexity refers to the potential for emergent behavior in complex and unpredictable phenomena. Examples of complex adapting systems include the economy, ecosystems, the human brain, developing embryos and ant colonies and human psychology. On the latter, Branden spent his entire life’s work on establishing and developing a new theoretical understanding of human motivation based on [the] bio-centric conditions that give rise to mind evaluation, or systems of systems evaluation. So in short, just when you think the end is near, alas, the darkhorse of unexpected competition is barreling down the stretch and its name is emergent psychology. What Branden’s mentor (like her or hate her) Rand actually proposed are new emotions that are both novel and non-obvious still yet.Branden put that it into theory. And, as Steven Johnson mentions on the subject of new ideas, until more durable paths are built back to the original idea (the Eureka moment) time will pass and then just like a flock of birds in unison, humans will change. No longer alienated within Humans fighting one another is over. Finished. Why, because emergent psychology changes the nature of man. However, the one's kicking and screaming (the anti-life, the collectivists, religions zealots, ect and going to have a hard time with change) but they'll fold or be gone. So, there really is bright sunshine on the horizon, it just needs to be yanked towards us and that will be the domain of field investigators who start to corroborate and help you see the things you can’t see and help you feel the perceptual gestalts you can’t feel. The body-politic of liberty is coming and that's where freedom starts.

Unacknowledged Legislator

Blogger Snidely Whiplash February 12, 2016 9:10 PM  

Were-Puppy wrote:@21 Ron Winkleheimer

I, for one, welcome our new Empress, Ivanka Trump.

---

Especially compared to that MAN-HANDED sausage packing Mooch.

Ivana is old news. Trumps current wife is the former Melania Knauss

Blogger Snidely Whiplash February 12, 2016 9:10 PM  

Do I not care for you more than Stephen, TDNOM?

Blogger Skylark Thibedeau February 12, 2016 9:28 PM  

Now I'm going to have to reread H.G. Wells "The Outline of History".

Anonymous Eric the Red February 12, 2016 9:46 PM  

Obviously if the basic model/analogy is flawed (inexact, overgenaralization, sweeping generalization, etc, etc), then any conclusions are flawed.

Spengler says he can't account for the sudden rise in civilizations. So why continue to discuss/read/analyze his pedantic thesis?

Blogger Skylark Thibedeau February 12, 2016 9:53 PM  

Now I'm going to have to reread H.G. Wells "The Outline of History".

Blogger praetorian February 12, 2016 10:21 PM  

OT: drudge linked to a local business article that mentioned that SV tech workers are now 75%, seventy five FUCKING percent, foreign born. By the time I got to it, the offending paragraph had been purged.

Luckily someone archived it, so I slapped it into a screen cap:

http://i.imgur.com/QolNUUq.png

Archive everything, folks.

Anonymous RedJack February 12, 2016 10:22 PM  

@53
Roman history is a favorite of mine. Like most of love history, you start to see the same song playing again and again.

Williams Jennings Bryan had much of the Gracchi about him, and Gen. MacArthur much of Cesar. But this election has made me cold and fear for my children. We have Crassus, we have the Gracchi, we do not have a Cicero. No one to stand up and try to fight the last extinction of liberty. No Cato, to proclaim what is right no matter what. We are not Rome, we are "Great" Britain, who traded their courage for a morsel of bread, and their honor for the Royals to have some glittering gems.
We, I fear, are not Rome. We never made it that great. We are much less, and will not leave the impression Rome did. Two hundred years from now few will remember what America was, but they will still talk of Cicero.

Blogger The Other Robot February 12, 2016 10:27 PM  

And I don't know, oh, where I'm goin'
I just want to be left alone
When this train ends, I'll try again


It's a great song but they will not let you alone!

The train is not fine!

Blogger The Other Robot February 12, 2016 10:31 PM  

OT: drudge linked to a local business article that mentioned that SV tech workers are now 75%, seventy five FUCKING percent, foreign born. By the time I got to it, the offending paragraph had been purged.

You are correct. Where I am it is more than 75%. I am foreign born as well, but at least I am white and a citizen with a strong interest in the Constitution, and I read Sudden when I was a teen.

Blogger praetorian February 12, 2016 10:35 PM  

Original source for the SV demographics: http://www.jointventure.org/images/stories/pdf/index2016.pdf

See page 15.

Anonymous George of the Jungle February 12, 2016 11:02 PM  

@59...
Might as well offer my own theory, one's as good as the other...

The antedeluvians never went away. The top echelons of that world-spanning advanced civilization survived the deluge, and have a head start of at least 7000 years on the rest of us, including technology, sociology, psychology, and ultimately power. In a sense, they are truly Struldbrugs. The UFO's we think are alien? Struldbrugs. The power behind Davos, Bilderberg, CFR? Struldbrugs. The list goes on and on.

They are in control. They are calling all the shots. They have access to unbelievable power and wealth. As part of their program of complete world domination, they are mandating the reduction of world population down to about 500 million. Everything that is happening that seems senseless to us, is in actuality the result of this conspiracy.

Wow, am I out there, or what?

Blogger The Other Robot February 12, 2016 11:10 PM  

I have to say that Neil Young simply did not read what Rabbie Burns wrote.

He certainly did not write: The devil fools with the best laid plan.

Ignoramus. Perhaps that is all you can expect from Canadians.

Blogger Eric February 13, 2016 12:28 AM  

I don't know of Trump is Ceasar. I have him more of a Crassus.

Because he's rich and vain? Maybe.

What we need is a Sulla.

Blogger SciVo February 13, 2016 2:33 AM  

Mr.MantraMan @44: I personally find Zionism in some fashion inspiring in an evolutionary system. The Zionists are magians yet practical, though their Blank Slate Theory as dogma is silly.

So, what is the difference between an enlightened Blank Slate Theory, and a bigoted Jew-supremacist inability to tell the difference between a European, an African and a Chinese?

Blogger Ahazuerus February 13, 2016 2:39 AM  

I think if you'd told him (Spengler) that she (Merkel) was a communist party member he'd have been less surprised at the suicidal idiocy.

Blogger Charlie Martel February 13, 2016 3:39 AM  

Regarding force politics:

https://cryptome.org/ap.htm

Bitcoin, assassination bountied as 4GW

Blogger Mr.MantraMan February 13, 2016 3:51 AM  

I don't find any of the Blank Slate Theory enlightening, it is crappy dogma

Blogger Mr.MantraMan February 13, 2016 6:32 AM  

#69 good question, in truth I doubt the Zionists really care about the mumbo jumbo their co-ethnics came up with, but there is some cross pollination between the Zionists and the Tikkun Olam scam artists , compromises must be made.

And since this is a thread on Spengler's opus I must mention that he damn near ruined it by including a page where he quoted Franz Boas and his "Magic Dirt" theory in a positive manner.

Blogger Ron Winkleheimer February 13, 2016 7:23 AM  

@56

Not Ivana, Ivanka - Donald's daughter. Once Dad dies she would inherit.

And she is really hot.

Blogger Skylark Thibedeau February 13, 2016 8:04 AM  

Is @Nero Juvenal?

Blogger Skylark Thibedeau February 13, 2016 8:05 AM  

Is @Nero Juvenal?

Blogger Old Ez February 13, 2016 8:07 AM  

Happy coincidence. I am re-reading DotW just now. I first read it about 5 years ago and it profoundly changed my outlook. I would say Spengler is required reading for serious reactosphere participants. The tools that that work gives for undermining the progressive narrative are invaluable. Perhaps the most important revelation I got from the book is that all people necessarily operate under the influence of "ideologies", whether they admit it or not. The fetishization of measurement is one such ideology that often goes under the name "science". Read DotW in conjunction with Pareto's Compendium on General Sociology (or the Unabridged 4 volume "Mind and Society" from which it is abstracted) and you will be given extremely powerful tools for understanding elite behaviors and the uses of ideology.

Blogger dc.sunsets February 13, 2016 9:41 AM  

Yeah, Toddy Cat, Roger Stone is a New Left/KGB plant.

I think not.

Blogger SciVo February 13, 2016 10:56 AM  

Tom Roberts wrote:So enthralled with some of the material that author Steven Johnson put into his book Emergence (2001, Emergence The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Software) that it became required reading (for reasons I’m not sure of) by the spooks that walk the halls in Langley, VA.

Oh, but we can guess why, even if we're not sure: because the implications devalue the individual if you look at it wrong, which they would love to do, because the intrinsic value of the human person -- and the consequent immorality of abusing one -- has long been a stubborn obstacle to their exercise of will.

Now, I can't recall offhand if it's mentioned in Emergence itself, but an immediately obvious corollary of the concept of emergence is that of the metaperson. If a complex system of complex systems is a metasystem for those systems, and a human person is a complex system, then a complex human system would be a metaperson.

Then, by analogy, one might wonder where he fits in. Am I the brain? (Probably not. I think I would know if I were.) Am I a lobe, a neuron, an organ, or a gland? Or just a skin cell? (Perhaps in the colon.)

To answer that question, a shift in perspective is handy. Let's start at the top: humanity as a whole. That is, of course, the most meta of all metapeople. Its organs then are nations and its glands are the media, with industrial capitalism its hands and financial capitalism its stomach. Davos then may be its brain, and you and I are as expendable to this metaperson as a flake of dry skin.

Of course Langley loves it. How could it not?

And, as Steven Johnson mentions on the subject of new ideas, until more durable paths are built back to the original idea (the Eureka moment) time will pass and then just like a flock of birds in unison, humans will change. No longer alienated within Humans fighting one another is over. Finished. Why, because emergent psychology changes the nature of man. However, the one's kicking and screaming (the anti-life, the collectivists, religions zealots, ect and going to have a hard time with change) but they'll fold or be gone. So, there really is bright sunshine on the horizon, it just needs to be yanked towards us and that will be the domain of field investigators who start to corroborate and help you see the things you can’t see and help you feel the perceptual gestalts you can’t feel. The body-politic of liberty is coming and that's where freedom starts.

Bullshit. Ignorant bullshit. You cannot forge a homogenous blob out of the heterogenous material that is human biodiversity. That is pie-in-the-sky nonsense that ignores both genetics and culture. Worse, it is a sign of a metamind gone mad, insanely desiring to devolve from a profoundly complex and beautiful being to an amorpheous amoeba.

Fortunately, humanity's brain is entirely replaceable. Any other network of white cells could take over Davos's function just as well, and that is the simplest way to cure its craziness.

Blogger postmodern redneck February 13, 2016 12:43 PM  

From the Wikipedia article on Spengler: Spengler's pessimism did not go unchallenged. In the July 10, 1920 issue of The Illustrated London News, G. K. Chesterton took issue with pessimists (without mentioning Spengler by name) and their optimistic critics, arguing that neither took into consideration human choice: "The pessimists believe that the cosmos is a clock that is running down; the progressives believe it is a clock that they themselves are winding up. But I happen to believe that the world is what we choose to make it, and that we are what we choose to make ourselves; and that our renascence or our ruin will alike, ultimately and equally, testify with a trumpet to our liberty."[51]

I am a lifelong history student but also a committed Christian. The flaw in most of those German philosophers is the denial of Free Will, and with it, both personal initiative and personal responsibility--at all levels from the private life to the highest reaches of government. Spengler came out of the same German intellectual climate as the Frankfurt School Marxists who have made problems ever since they fled Hitler's Germany for the US. And the similar flaws remain. No matter how pretty the theory, or how elegant the reasoning, or how much one wants it to prevail--ind the end, the Real World always wins. Always.

Blogger praetorian February 13, 2016 12:59 PM  

The flaw in most of those German philosophers is the denial of Free Will

Coupled with a stupendous amount of crypto-spiritualist bullshit.

The reasoning is not elegant, it isn't scientific and it isn't even that suggestive when compared with, say, catholic thinking from much earlier. Mid-wit english speakers entranced by germanic gibberish have done quite a lot of damage.

Meanwhile, Darwin is ignored across the social sciences, except when he can be used to beat up Christians.

Anonymous Mr. Rational February 13, 2016 2:15 PM  

praetorian wrote:Darwin is ignored across the social sciences, except when he can be used to beat up Christians.

This works because Christianity is also universalist, and would get very, very uncomfortable with assigning gradations of humanity to different varieties of the great apes.

It would surprise no one to find Koko the gorilla out-scoring a ghetto thug on measures of empathy and even possibly intellect.  But the public policy implications... imagine the screams when it became obvious that the psychopathy and lack of impulse control meant that most ghetto thugs really should be isolated from humanity, and the "school-to-prison pipeline" really ought to have its terminus at more like grade 7.

Blogger LBD February 13, 2016 3:50 PM  

@56: Snidely, Ivana is Trump's first ex-wife, mother of
Ivanka. She has a brother who will also inherit.

I find it interesting that Ivanka comes across as quite gracious and classy, while her younger half sister Tiffany (daughter of Trump and Marla Maples) looks quite trashy. Perhaps the prole stripper name did not bode well for her.



Blogger Charlie Martel February 13, 2016 5:10 PM  

@83 I have a historian friend who goes by her second name because Brandee is not a name normally seen in the groves of academe.

Anonymous FrankNorman February 14, 2016 1:31 AM  

69. SciVo February 13, 2016 2:33 AM
So, what is the difference between an enlightened Blank Slate Theory, and a bigoted Jew-supremacist inability to tell the difference between a European, an African and a Chinese?


Is that inability, or just dishonesty?
That Jewish supremacist knows perfectly well that the races are different - and in particular, that his own people are different from others.
But he doesn't want other people knowing that.

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