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Sunday, February 14, 2016

Thunder of the North

As students of military history know, large-scale military exercises are often used to mask the mobilizations that precede an invasion. That is why many observers are more than a little bit nervous about the implications of the joint Saudi-Turkish exercises called Thunder in the North, as they believe it to be an invasion of Syria meant to stop the Russian-Syrian alliance from defeating the anti-Assad rebels in Aleppo.
Saudi military spokesman Brigadier-General Ahmed al-Asiri said his country is prepared for a land war in Syria, the Saudi-backed Asharq al-Awsat reported on Tuesday.

Asiri’s statement to the London- based paper comes after his country announced last week its willing to send ground troops as part of the international coalition to fight Islamic State.

The Senior Saudi defense official said that his country wants to defeat Islamic State.

He also announced Saudi Arabia would hold a large-scale military exercise called “Thunder of the North” with the participation of 21 Arab and Muslim countries. The exercise would enhance coordination and information sharing between the countries, Asiri said.

He added, according to the report, that “when participating countries feel that there are coordinated and interdependent efforts, the results of the exercise will be positive.
There is talk of "350,000 troops, 2,540 warplanes, 20,000 tanks and 460 helicopters", which frankly sounds completely absurd to me in light of the fact that the Saudis have had to rely upon Colombian mercenaries in their largely unsuccessful effort to fight the Yemeni rebels. So, too, is the idea that the Russians would resort to tactical nukes in order to stop them. However, the Saker, who is considerably more credible than a Saudi military spokesman, has indicated that there may indeed be reason for concern, and not just because of the 18,000 troops that Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan has stationed near the border:
The problem for the USA is that it has no good option to achieve its overriding goal in Syria: to “prevent Russia from winning”. In the delusional minds of the AngloZionist rulers, Russia is just a “regional power” which cannot be allowed to defy the “indispensable nation”. And yet, Russia is doing exactly that both in Syria and in the Ukraine and Obama’s entire Russia policy is in shambles. Can he afford to appear so weak in an election year? Can the US “deep state” let the Empire be humiliated and its weakness exposed?

The latest news strongly suggests to me that the White House has taken the decision to let Turkey and Saudi Arabia invade Syria. Turkish officials are openly saying that an invasion is imminent and that the goal of such an invasion would be to reverse the Syrian army gains along the boder and near Aleppo. The latest reports are also suggesting that the Turks have begun shelling Aleppo. None of that could be happening without the full support of CENTCOM and the White House.

The Empire has apparently concluded that Daesh is not strong enough to overthrow Assad, at least not when the Russian AeroSpace forces are supporting him, so it will now unleash the Turks and the Saudis in the hope of changing the outcome of this war or, if that is not possible, to carve up Syria into ‘zones of responsibility” – all under the pretext of fighting Daesh, of course.

The Russian task force in Syria is about to be very seriously challenged and I don’t see how it could deal with this new threat by itself. I very much hope that I am wrong here, but I have do admit that a *real* Russian intervention in Syria might happen after all, with MiG-31s and all. In fact, in the next few days, we are probably going to witness a dramatic escalation of the conflict in Syria.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems that President Obama has been very, very quiet of late. That, combined with the massive jump in the price of gold recently, seems to indicate that something non-trivial is in the works, although I can't seem to find any information on when the exercises are scheduled to begin.

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134 Comments:

Anonymous Ulmer Miller February 14, 2016 12:08 PM  

A dead SC justice, Zika's causing birth defects and bringing back Guillain-Barre syndrome, economy's taking a dump, rumors of war... 2016's off to an interesting start!

Blogger Markku February 14, 2016 12:14 PM  

Absurd? Of course Russia will use tactical nukes. I still remember when they changed their doctrine to use tactical nukes against conventional attacks.

Blogger Positive Dennis February 14, 2016 12:14 PM  

Sakir thought that the Russians would not intervene at all. He has been uniformly conservative in his thoughts on Syria. The vulnerability of Turkey through disruption of natural gas structure and the vulnerability of Saudi infrastructure to cruise missiles makes rational action on their part impossible. But as Sakir points out their is always the irrational.

Anonymous redsash February 14, 2016 12:21 PM  

Nuke Mecca, Medina, S.A capitol, and oil fields. Nuke Ankara and neutron Istanbul. Move nuclear subs off D.C. and N.Y. Game Set match

Blogger Markku February 14, 2016 12:25 PM  

If they're smart, they'll gas some of their own soldiers first, frame it on the enemy, and then use tactical nukes. This way they'll offer two arguments. One, that they've been saying for years that this is what they'll do, AND they weren't the first to go non-conventional.

Blogger frenchy February 14, 2016 12:28 PM  

Move subs off DC and NY. That's not smart. They'll get detected (underwater hydrophone network). And why get so close when you can hit them from hundreds, or thousands of miles away? Why even put the subs at risk?

Medvedev, Lavrov, and Putin are smarter than this. No need for nukes. They'll come up with something, but not nukes.

The big issue is if the Russians move more troops in to stop this madness, and if Turkey does attack, and Russia pounds them, will NATO foolishly get involved.

Blogger unconventional nazi February 14, 2016 12:28 PM  

I think the Saudis and company are far overestimating how far the U.S. will go (regardless of what the U.S. may be telling them) to prop them up. It hasn't occurred to them that perhaps the U.S. has decided these guys have outlived their usefulness and are setting them up to fall on their own sword.

Blogger Jack Ward February 14, 2016 12:33 PM  

If Centcom and the White House traitor are cool with the Turk/Saudi move it certainly explains why the sudden, 'unexpected' death of Scalia happened to happen just now. Why, with a major middle east war to distract the plebs here at home, the perfect time to ram through a very liberal replacement for Scalia. Yes, I know, the political structure of the world would not be put on an altar just for a justice change. But, then, who was said to never allow a crisis go to waste? Wring what you can out of it.
If the move works to more liberalize the count happens in a really timely manner look for Ginsburg and the other freaks on the SC to 'suddenly' decide to retire while our dear leader is still there to nominate their replacements.
Lord, I hope not, but that's one of my current bad dreams.

Blogger Markku February 14, 2016 12:33 PM  

Medvedev, Lavrov, and Putin are smarter than this. No need for nukes.

First of all, do you realize that tactical nukes are battlefield-sized? We are not talking about what you generally think of as "nuking" the opponent, Hiroshima-style.

Second, they have already been saying for years that this is what they will do if attacked conventionally, and that they don't consider a tactical nuke to be the same kind of a thing as a strategic nuke, contra USA's protestations. They can't bloody well pussy off now, when that comes to test.

Blogger Jack Ward February 14, 2016 12:35 PM  

That was liberalize the 'court', darn it all.

OpenID sigbouncer February 14, 2016 12:38 PM  

I don't expect Russia will again fall for our proxy war trick that we did to them back in Afghanistan circa 70-80's.

This one has been bothering me for awhile now. With the idiots running for POTUS on both sides (Clinton, Cruz, Rubio, Bush, Kasich, Carson) supporting an all out war with Russia. This situation is no joke. Trump cannot get into office quick enough for this.

The last thing I want to remember in life is getting nuked by Russia in WWIII all because of some little shithole country in the fucking middle east.

Blogger Markku February 14, 2016 12:39 PM  

Tactical nukes give me a hard-on

Blogger crazyivan498 February 14, 2016 12:40 PM  

off topic. did anyone else notice that when searching vox day on google last week the vox popoli blog didn't show up until page 2 of search results? I noticed today that searching vox day showed vox popoli is back as first result again. sjw attack?

Blogger dienw February 14, 2016 1:04 PM  

A few weeks ago I came across a prophecy by a now deceased, mid-twentieth century, Greek Orthodox monk who prophesied that Istanbul will soon return to the Greeks and that Russia will reduce Turkey back to its tribal states. Of course we have the Islamic prophesy that the 12th or 13th Imam will arise once Mecca is destroyed. And then we have prophetic voices in the U.S. which declared in Obama's first term that he would be bowing down to the Russian commander before the end of his term. Good times are coming... yeah.

Blogger frenchy February 14, 2016 1:04 PM  

@ Markku,

In a battle of David and Goliath, no one cheers for Goliath. Russia has nukes. Turkey does not. Russia would be Goliath. They use nukes, the world turns against them.

And I would think if Russia stated that they would use tactical nukes (I've heard as much), it would be either at sea, or to defend the country itself--against an attack by a state to defend its mainland. I cannot foresee them using nukes in Syria...to defend what? Russia has to maintain the moral high ground. If they use nukes, they may achieve a physical and tactical victory (using Boyd's nine square model), but they would lose strategically.

Anonymous A Visitor February 14, 2016 1:11 PM  

This whole situation reminds me of three of my grad school classes: one on theoretical causes of war, one on conventional war, one on nuclear warfighting.

"So, too, is the idea that the Russians would resort to tactical nukes in order to stop them"

@Markku thanks for explaining the difference to those that don't understand.

It's not too far fetched to think the Ruskies would use tactical nukes as Markku has correctly pointed out their doctrine calls for first strike use against conventional attacks. Furthermore, think about all the logistics issues they've had with their SUs breaking down due to ops tempo and force projection never having been this bad since Afghanistan.

They may rely on nukes out of necessity. Keep in mind too the Saudis at least rely on our equipment and advisors. Their logistics game outside KSA? We'll see.

In all, this is shaping up to very interesting

Blogger roger gibson February 14, 2016 1:12 PM  

Tactical nukes? In this day and age? Doesn't Vladimir know it's 2016 and MAD/megadeath is out of fashion?

Considering the Assad family has used chemical weapons as a tactic, it could be the next logical step to assume that the next level of violence will be the nuclear option.

Don't be too surprised.

Anonymous Discard February 14, 2016 1:14 PM  

Saudis would actually fight? Not against someone who could fight back. Haven't they the very model of a gold-plated, showcase military? Or am I mistaken?

Anonymous Bobby Farr February 14, 2016 1:17 PM  

Time to go long oil.

Blogger buwaya puti February 14, 2016 1:20 PM  

Jordan.
Watch what they do.
Though they certainly don't have 350,000
The Russians are out on a limb at Latakia.
The Turks have enough artillery with enough range to shut down their airbase and port. The Turks and helpers can outnumber the aircraft supportable at Latakia by 10:1. And hundreds of modern tanks available to go the 70km to take it if it comes to that. Note that in this war so far a dozen tanks is a significant force, the whole thing is on an absurdly small scale at the fighting end. I don't know about the logistics of a southern attack from Jordan, by whomever shows up, but it would be a dangerous distraction and may help shut down logistic support to Damascus, the other hub.
Assad/Syria/Russia could get in serious trouble here, its not that difficult to cut Syria off entirely.
This is an extremely dangerous situation. Even tactical nukes are a double edged sword.

Blogger The Other Robot February 14, 2016 1:22 PM  

Furthermore, think about all the logistics issues they've had with their SUs breaking down due to ops tempo and force projection never having been this bad since Afghanistan.

That is an important issue. Do you have links to their ops issues?

Blogger roger gibson February 14, 2016 1:24 PM  

I know the Assad family doesn't own any tactical nukes, to clarify. But Mr. Putin does.

Blogger buwaya puti February 14, 2016 1:26 PM  

Thinking of historical analogies, the Russians risk a Dien Bien Phu. Even if they have the technology on the spot to keep off the Turkish/Allied air forces, they are likely to be massively outnumbered on the ground, isolated from reinforcements and are vulnerable to a large concentration of artillery.

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother February 14, 2016 1:27 PM  

After the pain the Saudis have caused the US oil industry, I'm sure unemployed oil industry types across this country will cry many tears if Saudi Arabia's oil industry is damaged/degraded by Russian missiles.

Anonymous Man of the Atom February 14, 2016 1:29 PM  

roger gibson wrote:Tactical nukes? In this day and age? Doesn't Vladimir know it's 2016 and MAD/megadeath is out of fashion?

Considering the Assad family has used chemical weapons as a tactic, it could be the next logical step to assume that the next level of violence will be the nuclear option.

Don't be too surprised.


Tactical nukes are probably in the 1 kT range. Likely be able to transit the territory within a few days after the strike. Get a copy of NCRP Report 138 for more details on results.

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother February 14, 2016 1:33 PM  

How much fissile material is that?

Anonymous pdimov February 14, 2016 1:34 PM  

The Turks have enough artillery with enough range to shut down their airbase and port.

That would be a genuine act of war and Turkey would very much prefer to be able to play the victim and drag NATO into it. This is harder when she's the aggressor.

Anonymous rienzi February 14, 2016 1:36 PM  

A very good rule of thumb is: Don't get into a balls-to-the-wall shooting war with the Russians.

Such really, really good opponents as Napoleon and the Wehrmacht got their asses handed to them, and if your're not prepared to march on Moscow then you best not ante in.

God, just how stupid are our overlords?

Blogger gunner451 February 14, 2016 1:37 PM  

Southfront.org has the Russian view of things and shows what's going on from a more strategic level. Much better than the western media as far a telling the viewer what's going on. The Russians are moving a cruise missile ship to Syria which would be somewhat of a counter to this but if you look at the numbers Turkey far far out numbers what Russia and Syria combined have available, that plus the logistic tail being so long and having to go through Turkey means that there is probably not much the Russians can do from Syria.

Tactical nukes may be an option since the Russians do have neutron bombs which would be the ideal counter to the overwhelming tactical advantage of Turkey (Saudi forces have been shown to be less than capable but they do lend a fig leaf of international cooperation). I doubt that Russia would use nukes and may move on another front to apply pressure on Turkey like what they are doing by mobilizing their forces in southern Russia (which they are doing). They could also beef up the Kurds or cut off Turkey completely from energy.

Blogger dienw February 14, 2016 1:38 PM  

Turkey has crossed into Syria

Get away from the eastern and western seaboards people.
First Witness

Second witness, but time may have been delayed to give us one more chance

Third witness

How witnesses many do you need. Scoff smirk to your own destruction.

Blogger The Other Robot February 14, 2016 1:38 PM  

Such really, really good opponents as Napoleon and the Wehrmacht got their asses handed to them, and if your're not prepared to march on Moscow then you best not ante in.

Well, summer is coming and with a bit of luck they could be in Moscow by August :-)

Anonymous A Visitor February 14, 2016 1:44 PM  

@The Other Robot

There was a great front page article in USAToday or WSJ where I read that while out on a job interview. That was early Nov of last year for reference. They quoted a senior DoD official talking about their breakdowns due to logistics, ops tempo, and lack of spare parts.

Keep in mind MAD is a state, not a doctrine; excluding the US, Russia has total nuke dominance over Turkey, KSA, and Jordan.

Blogger Neanderserk February 14, 2016 1:44 PM  

And this is what's happening BEFORE the Fed collapses.

Wheeee

Anonymous Discard February 14, 2016 1:48 PM  

If Turkey really wants to get into a fight with Russia, there's no reason that the Russians need to limit the battlefield to Syria. The Black Sea fleet has lots of ships with cruise missiles that don't need to pass through the Bosphorus. Constantinople arises again!

Anonymous Man of the Atom February 14, 2016 1:49 PM  

Stg58/Animal Mother wrote:How much fissile material is that?

Little Boy (Hiroshima) was a 15kT-yield fission bomb with a 64-kg U-235 payload. We and the Russians are probably doing much better than that now. Link

Blogger buwaya puti February 14, 2016 2:04 PM  

The Black Sea Fleet is actually rather small, and its vessels mostly quite old, save for a few new submarines and a couple of corvettes.
They certainly could shoot up something in Turkey, but the opposite is also possible.
Anyway, for the Russians to get to Turkey, this is going to take a while. They have to conquer or intimidate Georgia and Azerbaijan, build up logistics to Armenia, etc. This may take months and generate several other international crises in the process. They don't have the shipping to land significant forces on the Turkish coast. Which would be very dangerous anyway.
Going the other way, they have to blast through Ukraine and invade two NATO members.

Anonymous zen0 the Ephemeral February 14, 2016 2:05 PM  

“When you hear that the Russians have captured the city of Crimea, you should know that the times of the Messiah have started, that his steps are being heard. And when you hear that the Russians have reached the city of Constantinople (today’s Istanbul), you should put on your Shabbat clothes and don’t take them off, because it means that the Messiah is about to come any minute.”



Rabbi Moshe Shternbuch: We Hear the Footsteps of Moshiach

Blogger buwaya puti February 14, 2016 2:09 PM  

Napoleon and Hitler made the mistake of invading Russia. In this case, that's not in the cards. The Russians have often been beaten while invading someone else.
I don't actually care who comes off best in this thing. The worry is the effect of a wild escalation on the rest of us.

Blogger buwaya puti February 14, 2016 2:09 PM  

Napoleon and Hitler made the mistake of invading Russia. In this case, that's not in the cards. The Russians have often been beaten while invading someone else.
I don't actually care who comes off best in this thing. The worry is the effect of a wild escalation on the rest of us.

Blogger buwaya puti February 14, 2016 2:14 PM  

The Black Sea Fleet is actually rather small, and its vessels mostly quite old, save for a few new submarines and a couple of corvettes.
They certainly could shoot up something in Turkey, but the opposite is also possible.
Anyway, for the Russians to get to Turkey, this is going to take a while. They have to conquer or intimidate Georgia and Azerbaijan, build up logistics to Armenia, etc. This may take months and generate several other international crises in the process. They don't have the shipping to land significant forces on the Turkish coast. Which would be very dangerous anyway.
Going the other way, they have to blast through Ukraine and invade two NATO members.

Anonymous The other robot February 14, 2016 2:18 PM  

Napoleon and Hitler made the mistake of invading Russia. In this case, that's not in the cards.

I imagine that the end-game that a few desire is the destruction and looting of Russia.

That doesn't happen without an invasion.

Anonymous Discard February 14, 2016 2:21 PM  

36. buwaya puti: New cruise missiles can be mounted on old ships. During Reagan's time, 40 year old battleships carried the latest missiles. I don't know if the Russians have done that, but it would be reasonable.

Blogger buwaya puti February 14, 2016 2:22 PM  

Only true megalomaniacal "great men" would even think about an "end game" against Russia. At the moment there aren't any around.

Blogger Skylark Thibedeau February 14, 2016 2:26 PM  

The Russians know the NATO MAD deterrent is in shambles. They only need to worry about getting a counter strike from Pakistan in support of the Sunnis and that will draw in India on Russia's side. Will the Chinese support Russia or Pakistan or will they take Taiwan and via their proxy, Seoul?

Blogger Scott6584 February 14, 2016 2:26 PM  

It would be interesting for Vox-Day to weigh in on the Biblical Prophecy implications of Russia (Gog & Magog) coming down from the North to join with armies attacking Israel - given the current geopolitical situation.

From a Christian POV, Jesus told us that when all these things start happening to "look up, for your redemption draws near." Instead of being discouraged, Christians have an opportunity to rejoice, even in the face of bad geopolitical news.

Anonymous RedJack February 14, 2016 2:28 PM  

Russia's long term goal has been to retake Constantinople and rededicate the Hagia Sophia.

Some old prophecies hint that the Rus will do just that. Remember, they are playing the role of the Defenders of Christendom again, while the rest is forcing gay marriage and abortion on the world.

Blogger Scott6584 February 14, 2016 2:30 PM  

Of course, many in the manosphere are also supporting Trump, who promises to "make a deal" with Putin, which would give him carte-blanche in regards to his adventures in the Middle East. I can see that as a welcome development for many who are tired of the USA being embroiled in that millenia old dispute; why not let Russia get bogged down instead of us? But it makes me wonder about how the Biblical prophecy is being fulfilled before our very eyes.

We live in very interesting times.

Blogger buwaya puti February 14, 2016 2:32 PM  

Certainly they could have new missiles, EW upgrades and so on. But they are few, and small, and no matter what they have short of nukes, unlikely to do more than a token attack. The USN fired hundreds of cruise missiles at Iraq at various times, doing not much. The Baltic Fleet can generate a tiny fraction of the firepower the USN did in the Persian Gulf.
And, the trouble with this, they are vulnerable to counterattack. Take the Slava, with 300km missiles - she has to sail right into very easy F16-ASM range of the Bosporous to shoot at anything significant. This could be a suicide mission, with little prospect of a critical target worth the attempt.

Anonymous RedJack February 14, 2016 2:32 PM  

dienw wrote:A few weeks ago I came across a prophecy by a now deceased, mid-twentieth century, Greek Orthodox monk who prophesied that Istanbul will soon return to the Greeks and that Russia will reduce Turkey back to its tribal states. Of course we have the Islamic prophesy that the 12th or 13th Imam will arise once Mecca is destroyed. And then we have prophetic voices in the U.S. which declared in Obama's first term that he would be bowing down to the Russian commander before the end of his term. Good times are coming... yeah.



Those prophecies, or their roots, stretch back to the old Eastern Roman Empire. "In the end days, The Rus will take the City". Meant something much different back then. I have a few Orthodox friends, and they have said there is a large "end times" movement going on now.

A few of their prophecies match up with some later ones. It doesn't end well for the Turks,.

Blogger buwaya puti February 14, 2016 2:33 PM  

Certainly they could have new missiles, EW upgrades and so on. But they are few, and small, and no matter what they have short of nukes, unlikely to do more than a token attack. The USN fired hundreds of cruise missiles at Iraq at various times, doing not much. The Baltic Fleet can generate a tiny fraction of the firepower the USN did in the Persian Gulf.
And, the trouble with this, they are vulnerable to counterattack. Take the Slava, with 300km missiles - she has to sail right into very easy F16-ASM range of the Bosporous to shoot at anything significant. This could be a suicide mission, with little prospect of a critical target worth the attempt.

Blogger buwaya puti February 14, 2016 2:34 PM  

Only true megalomaniacal "great men" would even think about an "end game" against Russia. At the moment there aren't any around.

Anonymous Anonymous February 14, 2016 2:35 PM  

Some help please.
Cannot figure out why none of the larger countries don't back the Kurds for their own country.
This would screw up all the surrounding forces.

The US hasn't because (hypothesis) they don't want to make the Turks mad.

Why wouldn't Russia see that as an opportunity to establish a large ground force that would support Assad and keep turkey off balance?

RAT64

Blogger lowercaseb February 14, 2016 2:36 PM  

The idea of Saudi ground troops is laughable. I remember an old War Nerd observation that Saudi special forces number one weapon is strategic drops of pallets of money to crush their opponents.

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother February 14, 2016 2:37 PM  

How much fissile material is that?

Blogger Scott6584 February 14, 2016 2:37 PM  

It's also rather ironic that far-right leaning Evangelical Christians have been the MOST supportive of the Jewish State, while it is simultaneously true that Jews in America hate and fear far-right leaning Evangelical Christians. It is indisputably the Jewish controlled entertainment industry, Jewish led Civil Right organizations, and heavily Jewish influenced left-wing media that has led the fight against traditional Christian morality in America.

It could be effectively argued that the very small minority of Jewish population have an inordinate influence on law and culture in the USA. With less than 2% of the population, how is it that so many Jews find their way onto the Supreme Court, and into high administration positions?

It is a paradox for Believing believers that want to support the Jewish State because of their understanding of Biblical Prophecy, while at the same time seeing those very same Jews they invariably support be a significant, if not primary, force to undermine Christian tradition and values in the USA. Someone is delusional in this situation.

Anonymous Man of the Atom February 14, 2016 2:41 PM  

What is China doing while this goes on?

Blogger Doom February 14, 2016 2:54 PM  

Good, good. It's about time they all lumped together for a quicker end to that war. The Sauds and Turks are in for a beating. Will Michelle give him his testies back, or he find them, and then be stupid enough to volunteer? We'll see. Any way that goes, it will be quite ugly. Only with Western help with the outside islam armies win, and maybe not even then. This is the one place I believe Russia needs to win. Not just for Assad, or Russia, but for the sake of the West.

Idiots.

Blogger buwaya puti February 14, 2016 2:55 PM  

There's some reports about Kurds dealing with Moscow, from last week. It makes sense. There is a long standing tradition of this.
As for the Chinese - they are as of last week implicitly backing the Norks by formally warning against South Korea acquiring antimissile defenses. This is new.

Anonymous Man of the Atom February 14, 2016 2:57 PM  

Stg58/Animal Mother wrote:How much fissile material is that?

Weapons-grade uranium is 85%+ U-235 for fission-bomb use. Little Boy would then have had about 55-60 kg of U-235. The fissile form of uranium (U-235) is only about 0.7% of natural uranium. Link

Blogger buwaya puti February 14, 2016 3:06 PM  

The Saudis have a lousy track record militarily, but the Turks are something else, Islam notwithstanding. And the local balance of power, plus geography, doesn't favor the Russian adventure. The Turks can doubtless isolate, nullify or take Latakia if it seems worthwhile vis a vis the cost, including whatever else they have to fear from the Russians. Putin and Russia risk humiliation. They have a few thousand men in Latakia and nearby, who can easily be isolated, cannot be substantially reinforced, and which, worst case, may have to surrender if the Turks have a serious go at them and they try to hold.
They will probably evacuate via Damascus if it starts to go down that way.

Blogger dienw February 14, 2016 3:07 PM  

58. Man of the Atom
Stg58/Animal Mother wrote:
How much fissile material is that?


I think she was asking about the pallets of cash.

Anonymous TLM February 14, 2016 3:16 PM  

52. I agree. One battalion of Russian paratroopers is enough to handle an entire Arab army. Don't know much about the Turks except that their culture loves shotguns and they'll make them out of pipes if necessary.

Anonymous Man of the Atom February 14, 2016 3:17 PM  

dienw wrote:58. Man of the Atom

Stg58/Animal Mother wrote:

How much fissile material is that?


I think she was asking about the pallets of cash.


Rubles, Pounds, Yen, Dollars, or Drachma?

Yeah, blew right by me.

Anonymous cheddarman of Christendom February 14, 2016 3:22 PM  

I wonder what effect this would have on europe. More refugees and a strengthening of thr traditionalists and alt right movements and enhanced prestige for conservative Christian russia...wondering if this could lead to 4th generation warfare against American military bases and soft targets in europe

Anonymous cheddarman of Christendom February 14, 2016 3:25 PM  

I don't see how the USA could get directly involved here...going to war to support an invasion by Turks and Saudi Arabia...that is a hard sell imo

Blogger Jew613 February 14, 2016 3:25 PM  

The Saudis grip on their own country isnt that strong. It would be very foolish for them to invade Syria but that is the danger of a civil war. It tends to draw in the surrounding countries.

Blogger Rusty Fife February 14, 2016 3:30 PM  

Anonymous wrote:Some help please.

Cannot figure out why none of the larger countries don't back the Kurds for their own country.

This would screw up all the surrounding forces.

The US hasn't because (hypothesis) they don't want to make the Turks mad.

Why wouldn't Russia see that as an opportunity to establish a large ground force that would support Assad and keep turkey off balance?

RAT64


Threatening to back the Kurd's play for independence ís something well within the Russian playbook.

Blogger RobertT February 14, 2016 3:38 PM  

Frigging idiots.

Blogger Rusty Fife February 14, 2016 3:41 PM  

My understanding of the Arab way of war is that they don't destroy infrastructure they can loot. The reason why the oil fields are still whole in Syria.

To the Asian (Russian) army; oil is a major pressure point of the Saudi royal family.

Getting the Saudis to see the light would only take a raid on a small oil export terminal. I don't know why they think it would be a good idea to go hot against the Russians.

Also virtually all the oil in Saudi Arabia is in the Shiite areas of the country. Supporting a little strife there is possible by Iran.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan February 14, 2016 3:43 PM  

Turkey would easily win the tactical side and then risk being strangled strategically.

While it is engaged in destroying Russian troops, missiles are going to be raining down on strategic areas of its economy. Possibly no oil or gas transit, electricity being targeted, ships in the Black Sea being targeted by subs and cruise missiles.

Russia risks further isolation because regardless of who done what to who and why the American Empire will bark orders for its Euro/NATO flunkies to jump to the Turk side and they will, "free trade and multiculturalism or we bomb the fuck out you."

Blogger VD February 14, 2016 3:46 PM  

Russia risks further isolation

From whom? They are already isolated as a result of the Ukraine war. Europe doesn't want to freeze next winter.

Anonymous redsash February 14, 2016 3:48 PM  

Putin is a martial artist. He will deliver what is known as a mind hit. So unexpected, so horrible, that Western elites will be left with their mouths dangling open and realize in no uncertain terms that you leave Russia alone or you die. Look for neutron bomb hit on Istanbul, H bomb hits on Ankara and the appropriate military targets. NATO cities will be made aware that mother Russia has many more in their arsenal and do they love their muslim friends all that much. Russia will survive post nuclear war, U.S. and Europe barely survive ice storms.

And what will China be up to? Owning the Pacific from Taiwan to San Fran.

Blogger Geir Balderson February 14, 2016 3:55 PM  

We are going about this very wrong. America needs to align with Russia and dump Turkey back into the Islamic pile it arose from. The World could prosper with the two superpowers ruling and avoiding all these shitty little wars in the Mideast. If the USA could come to a cooperative alliance even China would have to bow down.

Blogger The Other Robot February 14, 2016 3:57 PM  

VD wrote:Russia risks further isolation

From whom? They are already isolated as a result of the Ukraine war. Europe doesn't want to freeze next winter.


Well, I am sure that Obummer will refuse to have sex with Putin. Oh, wait. Michelle will have to make the threat.

Blogger Matthew Peak February 14, 2016 4:15 PM  

What I see is the US and Europe insisting on being atheist states supporting Islamic states, leaving Russia to protect European Christendom from its own desttruction at the hands of Islam.

Anonymous redsash February 14, 2016 4:17 PM  

Russia can survive nuclear war while Europe and America barely survive ice storms. The western elite damn well better ask themselves how much devastation they'll endure for their new found moon god worshippers.

God's hand protects Russia. The U.S. is spending itself into bankruptcy, jobs going to foreigners, and the Zikka virus will soon produce a generation of pinheads, actual pinheads.

Blogger FP February 14, 2016 4:29 PM  

Given the rumors of tactical nukes used in Yemen, I don't see how they're not on the table.

Anonymous BGKB February 14, 2016 4:46 PM  

Zika's causing birth defects

Turns out it was not zika but a thalidomide like insect repellent.
http://www.naturalnews.com/052943_Zika_virus_hoax_larvacide_chemical_GM_mosquitoes.html

"Previous Zika epidemics did not cause birth defects in newborns, despite infecting 75% of the population in those countries. Also, in other countries such as Colombia there are no records of microcephaly; however, there are plenty of Zika cases"

I was wondering why charities have not been pimping small headed kids for decades like they did ones with limbs cut off.

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother February 14, 2016 4:54 PM  


dienwFebruary 14, 2016 3:07 PM
58. Man of the Atom
Stg58/Animal Mother wrote:
How much fissile material is that?

I think she was asking about the pallets of cash.


She? You must be new around here, son.

Anonymous The Kulak February 14, 2016 5:19 PM  

First for those who are interested or have mentioned it, here's the video on Elder Paisios of Athos prophecies concerning an end times crushing defeat of the Turks by the Russians and the return of Constantinople and the St Sofia to the Greeks. The music at the end is "You Will Come as Lightning" (also known as at St Sofia Again) by Stamatis Spanoudakis: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4qpT_ow3sc

http://hellas-songs.ru/en/song/512

Second, individuals like buwaya puti are not seeing the larger picture and implication of Turkish aggression against Syria, up to and including an all out attack on the Latakia base. The reason Sergey Lavrov is so confident in his interviews that the Turks will not launch a large scale invasion, only continue their current antics on the border of trying to drive back the Kurds attacking their pet jihadi scum proxies, is simple. If the Turks go in hot NATO could collapse. Oh sure, the John R. Schindlers (@20Committee) and other Russophobic fanatics imagine that everybody in Europe is going to just fall into line behind Uncle Sam like they did for the 1999 Kosovo War, when 90% of the Greek population opposed the policy of their government bombing fellow Orthodox Christians. But attacking little Serbia and assaulting Russia and then tolerating the chutzpah of a NATO member that's been sponsoring ISIS crying Article V when half its air force gets obliterated on the ground by Russian Kalibr and Iskander missiles is a bridge too far. If you think the Greeks are the only ones who will tell the Turks to go screw themselves and Uncle Sam like hell are we accepting a war on their behalf, you're delusional. Orban would not miss the chance to shiv D.C. for all the bullshit Soros and the State Dept. joined at the hip with that old Satanist have thrown his way. You also forget that even if the 'Syria Express' gets temporarily blocked by Turkey closing the Dardanelles to Russian ships, there is still a country led by an enemy of Erdogan friendly to Russia and China with vast quantities of Soviet and Russian caliber arms and ATGMs stockpiled just across the Med. I'm referring of course, to Egypt, whose leader Sisi overthrew Erdogan's Muslim Brother in a military coup. Yes Israel could try to block Egyptian ships laden with arms headed straight for Tartus but what if they're escorted by a single Chinese destroyer even the insane Turks or U.S. Navy would dare not attack?

So yes VD and friends the reason the Russians are confident is they know other than numbers and logistics everything else is on their side. The last thing Barry Zero (unless he's being threatened by his globalist handlers) needs is a world war in his last year in office before quietly riding off into the Hawaiin sunset with Reggie Love. Or to be blamed as the crypto-Muslim in the White House who let his MBO bud Erdogan destroy NATO's Article V guarantee through aggression and subsequent Russian retaliation against Turkish bases on Turkish soil. THAT friends is why Lavrov ultimately thinks Putin's message to Obama of 'leash your mad dog in Ankara, and don't forget to ask your Saudi friends how's their war going in Yemen or how safe they feel their refineries are in a general war with Iran' will get across.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan February 14, 2016 5:24 PM  

You're right VD but here in the matrix of propaganda formerly free country of the USA reality is seen as what is broadcast.

There are I believe financial screws that can be tightened, I am not well enough informed to opine on them.

Anyway if Russia has an actual weak hand and a case can be made that it does it does it seem have far better leaders than the American Empire which are a combo of effete and nasty office queens and dimwitted contards stuck in either the year 1945 or Munich 1938.

Anonymous The Kulak February 14, 2016 5:34 PM  

Following up on that thought, even if NATO falls apart over Turkish aggression, could Uncle Sam carry on ignoring NATO's bylaws demanding a consensus to invoke Art V and the Washington Treaty lacking any obligation to go to war for a signatory who's engaged in aggression? Sure. Barry is sufficiently lawless. But that brings it back to nukes, which were also brandished during the Yom Kippur War. The Topol ICBM silo doors may be open and visible to the U.S. and everybody else's spy satellites. We're really going to have a nuclear war because the Khaganate of Nulands, Mad Muslim Brother neo-Sultan Erdo and some cocaine snorting off hookers butts Saudi princes are made their and the CIA's TOW jihadis couldn't get the job done once Russia intervened? I don't think so.

However I don't think it will go nuclear because Turkey already has vulnerabilities others have mentioned.

Anonymous The Kulak February 14, 2016 5:34 PM  

The Turkish Army has been easily crushing the PKK with minimal casualties only because it has not been in Iran and Russia's interest to massively arm them. If Turkey kills hundreds of Russian or thousands of Iranian servicemen that restraint goes away, then the PKK will not only be getting light anti-tank weapons but also GRADs and other goodies to use to kill Turkish cops and soldiers on a big scale. If Erdogan thinks sending thousands of TOWs to AlCIAeda in Syria was awesome, just wait until the Russian plant making Kornets is working around the clock and the truckloads of them are rolling into Iran.

Second, does anybody here want to guess how much of Turkey's gas is imported from Russia and Iran? Anyone here stop and ask themselves why Erdogan didn't already close the Straits if it was so easy and all he had to invoke was the provision of the Montreux Convention that Turkey feels threatened but actual war has not been declared? Why yes over 40% of Turkey's gas comes from Russia and about 70% comes from Russia and Iran combined. Again the Russians and Iranians would lose billions by shutting it off but if it's war and the pipelines may get blown anyway, they will shut it off. So anybody think the Sultan can substitute easy military victories that will actually cost him thousands of troops for a functioning economy when the rolling brownouts and blackouts start? Anybody think Turkish industry or the lira could survive that after the tourism sector has already been wiped out by Russians and Germans staying away and Turkish agro business has also taken a severe hit from Russian import bans?

Third, looking only at Russian vs. Turkish servicemen and arty numbers is deceptive. The Iraqi Shi'a militias have already vowed to attack any Saudi force or their logistical convoys coming through Iraq. Iran according to Elijah J. Magnier of Kuwaiti newspaper Al Rai has 6,000 soldiers in north Aleppo alone and probably more than that in reserve. The Russians can reinforce with their crack VDV division to guard Latakia from ground assault and also with an artillery brigade conduct crushing counterbattery fire sufficient to kill a lot of Turkish gunners who try to attack from there. The SAA's own proficiency with artillery and long range rockets like the Urugan has drastically improved thanks to Russian advisers, so they are also capable of a fighting retreat as Turkish air power will be limited by S300s/400s/Pantsirs and BUKs if not the 35+ Sukhois that outclass the F-16s and have jamming pods capable of blinding the Falcons' radars. The Armenian army is allied to Russia through the CSTO and can mass troops on the Turks eastern border tying down their flanks. Last but not least, ther is a certain Russian ally in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization that hasn't even cleared their throats yet, and that's China.

So dear Russophobes, still imagine that the Turks will take tens of thousands of casualties to march on Aleppo and FOABs if not tactical nukes on their massed armor at the border after a direct attack on Russian forces? Still think the Greeks wouldn't threaten the Turkish commander on northern Cyprus with blockade after the Russians sink half the Turkish Navy and destroy much of its air force which could intervene? Still think everybody in Europe's ready to bleed and die in a war with Russia for Uncle Sam's Muslim brothers? I don't.

Anonymous BGKB February 14, 2016 5:35 PM  

the Russians would resort to tactical nukes in order to stop them

Would it be better for the Russians to use Fuel Air bombs so they could occupy the areas or nukes to make a Detroit like no man's land buffer zone?

Nuke Mecca, Medina, S.A capitol, and oil fields. Nuke Ankara and neutron Istanbul. Move nuclear subs off D.C. and N.Y. Game Set match

Wait until the moslems do their pilgrimage to Mecca so you can take out the upper level that is in the west. Hacking the food stamp system to shut down right before the beginning of the month would mobilize the free stuff army to tear up stuff in every die verse city.

I think the Saudis and company are far overestimating how far the U.S. will go

Would any white UN troops be willing to fight Russians to protect moslems after Serbia?

did anyone else notice that when searching vox day on google last week the vox popoli blog didn't show up

yahoo also.

they are likely to be massively outnumbered on the ground,

Arabs are so cowardly that they keep their tanks main guns loaded so if there is an invasion there is a slight chance of someone firing it before they surrender.

Such really, really good opponents as Napoleon and the Wehrmacht got their asses handed to them,

Napoleon didn't realize his biggest enemies where Rotherchild bankers because he freed women and children from fake debts that they would show up with a contract with an X signature on it after a father died. That's why the French so loved him.

Don't know much about the Turks except that their culture loves shotguns and they'll make them out of pipes if necessary

You must be mistaking 6' tall hookah bongs for shot guns.

Russia risks further isolation You can for get about the US affirmative action NASA making back into space without Russia's help.

Anonymous The Kulak February 14, 2016 5:42 PM  

One more thought and why I'm not buying the WW3 hype just yet --

we haven't seen a surge of Russian Black Sea FLeet and Syria Express vessels, nor the overt deployment of Iskander hypersonic rockets capable of taking out bases in northern Turkey or any NATO AEGIS ship in those narrow waters just yet. If the Russians thought war were imminent it would make sense for them to try to get their fighting ships to Tartus and past the Dardanelles bottleneck. Since we haven't seen that I think Putin assumes the Turks will only attack at the border, but not try to invade Syria in force.

Last but not least, if the Turkish Air Force truly felt war with Russia was imminent and hundreds of Kalibr and air launched cruise missiles would be coming soon to destroy much of their F-16 and old F-4 fleet on the ground, they'll probably try to use American and NATO servicemen at Incirlik AFB as human shields. So you'll know shit's about to get real when the Turkish F-16s are packed in on the Incirlik AFB tarmac surrounded by Americans the mad Sultan assumes Putin won't touch in a Russo-Turkish war.

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother February 14, 2016 5:43 PM  


dienwFebruary 14, 2016 3:07 PM
58. Man of the Atom
Stg58/Animal Mother wrote:
How much fissile material is that?

I think she was asking about the pallets of cash.


She? You must be new around here, son.

Anonymous The Kulak February 14, 2016 5:52 PM  

"Getting the Saudis to see the light would only take a raid on a small oil export terminal. I don't know why they think it would be a good idea to go hot against the Russians."

"Also virtually all the oil in Saudi Arabia is in the Shiite areas of the country. Supporting a little strife there is possible by Iran."

This is why Michael D. Weiss and the other Trotskyites and insane Russophobes in the media demanding alCIAeda arm its jihadi proxies to kill MOAR Russian officers in Syria are putting big fat targets on the backs of any CIA personnel inside Saudi Arabia or Turkey, where both the Houthis/Shi'a and PKK are operating with anti-tank weapons. Not to mention all the Blackwater types and CIA officers who 'aren't' in Mariupol or Kharkov close to the Russian border, now that Moscow has missile armed drones of its own...

It's criminally stupid and completely forgets what happened to Benghazi could also happen to warehouses full of TOWs in Saudi Arabia, particularly now that the Houthis have demonstrated a talent for hitting Saudi bases with Qaher and Tochka missiles whenever western or Colombian mercs are present (which makes me think they're getting a little SIGINT help from the GRU or the Chinese).

Who knew cheap and easy (except in terms of Muslim life) proxy wars have the same problem as conventional wars like Dubya's occupation of Iraq? -- the other side eventually shoots back.

Blogger Eric February 14, 2016 6:03 PM  

None of that could be happening without the full support of CENTCOM and the White House.

Saker needs to put down the crack pipe. US credibility has fallen to the point that nobody in the ME is going to wait for the okay from the US for anything. Obama doesn't want to cause any civilian casualties, doesn't want US troops on the ground, doesn't want to antagonize the Russians, doesn't want to piss off the Turks, etc. His risk tolerance is so low he'll refuse to do anything. The only thing that would get Obama involved is Israeli intervention, which would have him casting about for a way to screw Netanyahu.

The Arabs, after seven years, have finally realized the US is paralyzed by fem-centric domestic politics. So they're acting on their own and will continue to do so regardless of strongly worded missives from Hans Blix. As will the Turks, once it starts.

The only real question is whether the Saudis are capable of doing anything. As VD notes, they're having trouble dealing with shoeless rebels in Yemen. Sending troops into Syria, with its factions hardened by five years of civil war, seems like a good way to lose an army. They will almost certainly have to rely on mercenaries, and there are reasons you don't want to rely on mercenaries.

Blogger Cataline Sergius February 14, 2016 6:11 PM  

Saudi Arabia can be safely counted out of any military action. They can provide cash but their military, while splendidly equipped, exists solely for the purpose of regime protection.

A failed foreign adventure makes them look weak back home. On the off chance there is a successful campaign, then the Saudi Royal family now has the very worrying problem of, what to do with a successful General?

They can risk a few jets but that's it really.

Turkey is different story. They have a proud military that's on bad terms with it's own government. If these war goes wrong, the military is going to over the government. The Turkish government knows that.

Putin's hand is almost as weak. He has a better military but Russia's economy is staggering drunkenly after the oil crash. And this kind of war would leave him drastically over extended.

I'm not saying there won't be a war but if there is a major factor is going to be, who collapses first.

Blogger Cataline Sergius February 14, 2016 6:13 PM  

@85

She? You must be new around here, son.

And/or never saw Full Metal Jacket.

Blogger allyn71 February 14, 2016 6:18 PM  

@84 So you'll know shit's about to get real when the Turkish F-16s are packed in on the Incirlik AFB tarmac surrounded by Americans the mad Sultan assumes Putin won't touch in a Russo-Turkish war.

Might just be ops normal but I ran into a guy I have worked with in the past. I asked him how things were and he said he was getting mobilized (he is in the guard). When I asked where and when he said soon and Incilirick, Turkey. FWIW.

Anonymous Millenium February 14, 2016 6:18 PM  

@15 When David is a smelly goat fucker everybody hopes Goliath will stamp his head into the ground.

Blogger AUN Muhammad Munir February 14, 2016 6:19 PM  

United is equal to PEACE,

Blogger Thucydides February 14, 2016 6:22 PM  

American "Grand Strategy" in the Middle East revolves around several factors.

Number one is actually Halford Mackinder's "World Island" theory. While the US has no hope af actually putting enough physical assets on the ground to prevent a global hegemon to rise by securing the Middle East; they nay have decided that the next best plan is to stir up enough instability that no one else will be able to secure the Middle East and the "world Island". Russia may be allied with Iran but does not fully share Iranian goals, and will be competing against Turkey and Saudi Arabia (who also have incompatible goals in the region. So a nice three way fight is shaping up to consume everyone's blood and treasure.

The second, and now probably much reduced goal of US foreign policy in the region was to ensure a continuing supply of oil to America's trading partners such as Europe, Japan and China (and to a lesser extent India). Given the low prices hurt everyone in that fight, but help America's trading partners, The US can sit on fracklogged shale oil and smile. Even if the ME oil supply suddenly becomes radioactive, the US can become an oil ex[porting nation, and the Japanese, Europeans and Chinese will get their energy at the pleasure of Uncle Sam ($70/brrel oil being sold from US oilfields will be an enormous shot in the arm for the US economy).

While I seriously doubt the Obama regime was perceptive enough to engineer this outcome, long decades of US diplomacy set the stage, probably as far back as the 1950's (placing the Shah of Iran on the throne) if not earlier (driving the Russians and the British from the Middle East starting in the 1940's).

Maybe not as fun as other conspiracy theories, but certainly just as plausible

Anonymous Man of the Atom February 14, 2016 6:24 PM  

BGKB wrote:the Russians would resort to tactical nukes in order to stop them

Would it be better for the Russians to use Fuel Air bombs so they could occupy the areas or nukes to make a Detroit like no man's land buffer zone?


Air burst your nuke about 0.5 to 1.0 mile over the ground. Little to no fallout from the neutron irradiation of soils and then tossing it all into the air. Plenty of immediate x-ray and neutron output to kill people and leave many structures standing. Not as crisp as a neutron warhead, but it'll do.

Anonymous Bz February 14, 2016 6:34 PM  

Should Serbia take the opportunity to reclaim Kosovo, or is that just wishful thinking? Drive the Albanians back up their mountain.

Blogger Were-Puppy February 14, 2016 6:42 PM  

@56 Man of the Atom
What is China doing while this goes on?
--

Plundering Africa while nobody is looking?

Blogger Rusty Fife February 14, 2016 6:42 PM  

Bz wrote:Should Serbia take the opportunity to reclaim Kosovo, or is that just wishful thinking? Drive the Albanians back up their mountain.

What percentage of the Kosovo population is Serbian now?

Blogger Rusty Fife February 14, 2016 6:45 PM  

Were-Puppy wrote:@56 Man of the Atom

What is China doing while this goes on?

--

Plundering Africa while nobody is looking?


Yeah, nothing consumes excess manufacturing capacity like war.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash February 14, 2016 6:52 PM  

Look up the prophecies of Emperor Leo VI (Leo the Wise). The Byzantine emporer prophesied the conquest of Constantinople by the Turks. He also foretold the rising of a king, hidden in secret at the far edge of the empire, who will be called by the angel of God to lead the reconquest. He will drive the sodomites out of positions of influence, rebuild the priesthood and drive the Ishmaelites out of the city, restoring the Church of Holy Wisdom.
There are French prophecies as well, of a warrior chief who will drive the Saracens and Jews and Atheist traitors from France, lead and support the similar wars in Germany and Scandinavia, and bring France back to the Church.

Blogger Student in Blue February 14, 2016 7:23 PM  

@Snidely Whiplash
Look up the prophecies of Emperor Leo VI (Leo the Wise).

Wake me up when the prophecies come from God, not from man.

Blogger Michael Maier February 14, 2016 7:23 PM  

Putin seems too media-savvy to use nukes.

"We do not use nuclear weapons and will never except as a last resort. We do not need to be so indiscriminate. What do you think we are, Americans?"

Blogger VD February 14, 2016 7:33 PM  

did anyone else notice that when searching vox day on google last week the vox popoli blog didn't show up

Interesting, in light of how last week registered record traffic here.

Anonymous cheddarman of Christendom February 14, 2016 7:54 PM  

Man up and fight for your faith. God is not going to beam you up and out of danger.

Blogger lowercaseb February 14, 2016 7:57 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger The Other Robot February 14, 2016 8:01 PM  

Putin seems too media-savvy to use nukes.

I wonder if the Russians took any FAEs with them?

Anonymous The Kulak February 14, 2016 8:01 PM  

Well for those so inclined there's plenty of Houthi anti-tank missile and Saudi death amid Allah snackbaring at the YouTube channel YemenFightsBack. Not to be confused with the forthcoming YPG Fried Turkish kebab thanks for the Kornets Vlad channel.

Anonymous cheddarman of Christendom February 14, 2016 8:15 PM  

Looking at a map of the region, Turkey has to move through mountainous terrain packed with Kurds to get into syria..

Blogger dienw February 14, 2016 8:33 PM  

78. Stg58/Animal Mother

She? You must be new around here, son.
The term "Animal Mother" threw me; besides, it is impolite to go around lifting skirts to check gonads.

I am not new here.

Blogger intuitivereason February 14, 2016 9:18 PM  

Tom Kratman on the Kurds - http://www.everyjoe.com/2016/02/01/politics/our-gallant-allies-the-kurds-other-fairy-tales/#1

May explain why no one is arming them.

Russian's are reportedly playing war games on Turkey's eastern border as well. Armenia may grow somewhat.

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother February 14, 2016 10:05 PM  

Dienw,

I'm not convinced. You've also never seen Full Metal Jacket.

Anonymous BGKB February 14, 2016 10:37 PM  

Putin seems too media-savvy to use nukes.

Trans-care package= The nukes self identify as food aid.

Blogger Young Heaving Bosoms of Liberty February 14, 2016 11:09 PM  

Stg58/Animal Mother wrote:Dienw,

I'm not convinced. You've also never seen Full Metal Jacket.


Dienw looks like a gook name to me.

Anonymous Discard February 14, 2016 11:27 PM  

97. Rusty Fife: What percent of the population of Kosovo will be Serbian if Uncle Sugar's hands are tied and the Serbians want it back?

Anonymous JamesD February 15, 2016 12:21 AM  

All you need to know about Syria. Israel wants Assad gone because he supports Hezbollah. So they unleashed the US and Turkey on him. It backfired, and now if Aleppo falls, the influence and power of Iran and Hezbollah increases dramatically, all under the cover of modern Russian SAMS. Israel can not let that happen. I expect this to escalate. Depending on what obama does, this could very well be WWIII.

Blogger Curtis February 15, 2016 12:28 AM  

@88

I suppose we are to assume that all wars only happen when the economy is doing grrrrreat!

How was our economy, and Russia's, when it entered WWII?

Come to think of it, you probably have seen all those EO's where the government takes over EVERYTHING, including your body, in case of a national emergency.

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother February 15, 2016 12:41 AM  

Me love you...long time?

Blogger Snidely Whiplash February 15, 2016 1:29 AM  

Like scripture, prophecy must come in a human voice.

Blogger Stan Hai February 15, 2016 5:44 AM  

@45 Russia isn't Gog and Magog.

Anonymous The Kulak February 15, 2016 6:04 AM  

@ 105 Saudis apparently dropped one (maybe one of ours maybe one of the Brits') in Yemen, maybe as a shock and awe test. It didn't work because the Houthis are too dispersed and are basically light as in sandals and sarongs infantry with only the usual Toyota pick up technicals (theirs being a bit more beat up and 90s 150k-200k miles vintage than the brand new Toyota ISIS aka Hillux trucks you saw in Syraq). The Russian FOAB is apparently superior to the MOAB both in terms of weight and kiloton levels, just like the Kornet > TOW/Javelin and the S400/500 > Patriot PAC 3/THAAD and Kalibr > Tomahawk/Harpoon.

@ 107 Correct, the secret about northern Syria is that there are only a few good crossings and highways mostly parallel or bisecting the Euphrates, while the Latakia-Turkey border is mountainous and not good tank country, so Turkey's 10 to 1 advantage in armor and self propelled howitzers is kinda negated. The Russians and SAA took their time blasting the jihadis off those mountaintops for the last three months with airpower and heavy artillery, which the Turks also have. But a thunder run straight south to the Russian base at Latakia ain't gonna happen. Not when Ivan can drop one of these:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3Cpnq4wFx0

on the Turkish armor backed up at the Azaz or Jarabalus crossing. Civilians have already pretty much left those towns so no worries about collateral damage unless the Turks use Syrian refugees as human shields.

As for the demographic that dare not be named, Israel's Defense Minister Ya'alon admitted at the Munich Security Conference that Turkey is basically 'a Muslim Brotherhood entity'. That doesn't sound like a ringing endorsement of team Zio-GCC Wahhabi con's brilliant plan to fight Russia and Iran to the last Turk/Saud for Greater Israel to me:

https://twitter.com/LibertyLynx/status/699109329987710976

If I were Lee Smith at the Weekly War Whore Standard, Saudi-Hariri grant shill Tony Badran at the FDD, or Michael D. Weiss at the Daily neocon Beast, I'd be getting nervous about winding up like this Qatari shill after the next return flight to CONUS from Turkey:

https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/697918094967250944?lang=en

To which I say: wow, finally DHS did their job and actually grilled somebody who's palled around with real live allahu snackbar jihad head chopping terrorists or at least shilled for them!

Blogger Rusty Fife February 15, 2016 6:32 AM  

Discard wrote:97. Rusty Fife: What percent of the population of Kosovo will be Serbian if Uncle Sugar's hands are tied and the Serbians want it back?

I'm trying to answer Bz's question.

Bz wrote:Should Serbia take the opportunity to reclaim Kosovo, or is that just wishful thinking? Drive the Albanians back up their mountain.

I'm curious about the way the cards are dealt right now; not how they aught to be dealt. Not being there I don't know.

Blogger bob k. mando February 15, 2016 7:25 AM  

116. Stg58/Animal Mother February 15, 2016 12:41 AM
Me love you...long time?



sucky sucky, five dolla.

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother February 15, 2016 8:26 AM  

I give you everyting you want

Anonymous Bz February 15, 2016 9:55 AM  

The CIA factbook tells us

"Albanians 92.9%, Bosniaks 1.6%, Serbs 1.5%, Turk 1.1%, Ashkali 0.9%, Egyptian 0.7%, Gorani 0.6%, Roma 0.5%, other/unspecified 0.2%

note: these estimates may under-represent Serb, Roma, and some other ethnic minorities because they are based on the 2011 Kosovo national census, which excluded northern Kosovo (a largely Serb-inhabited region) and was partially boycotted by Serb and Roma communities in southern Kosovo (2011 est.)"

The total population is estimated at 1,870,981.

Blogger Joshua Sinistar February 15, 2016 12:00 PM  

So none of you have realized that nigger boy in the Whites' House was installed by Putin huh? Everybody who so much as says anything critical of special nigger is called racist all day, except Putin. Putin can rub that nigger's face in shit all day and the silence is deafening.
Remember that nigger telling Medvedev that after the election he can stepit and fetchit like the good nigger he is again? Or have you all forgotten? Why did this nigger start cutting our stockpile of nukes when the Russians didn't even agree to inspections of their stockpile. This nigger is helping Iran get the bomb and telling the Whole World he won't even retaliate if we get nuked.
Remember how he was on the Soviet side in the Cold War? This bitch is still a Russian Pigeon playing Putin's Chess Games as a pawn now.
When special nigger got elected, Russia was a second rate nobody cares anymore has-been. Now Putin is pissing on Israel and the EU and nigger don't care. Isn't that special?

Blogger Rusty Fife February 15, 2016 1:10 PM  

@123 Bz

With those kind of numbers; y'all are going to have to play a long game. Think crafty Chinese 100yr plan.

Start by making life lousy for them and encourage Serbian criminals to move in. Kibbutz appears to be a successful model.

Blogger Conan the Cimmerian February 15, 2016 1:28 PM  

@122 I give you everyting you want

Good morning little schoolgirl, I am a little schoolboy too.

Blogger Rusty Fife February 15, 2016 1:33 PM  

@124 Joshua Sinistar

Ohh my, somebody learned a new word.

Blogger Conan the Cimmerian February 15, 2016 2:03 PM  

@122 @127

"All fucking niggers must fucking hang."

Blogger Rusty Fife February 15, 2016 2:10 PM  

@128

Lolz

Blogger Rusty Fife February 15, 2016 2:25 PM  

Conan the Cimmerian wrote:@122 @127

"All fucking FAILIFORNIANS must fucking hang."


FIFY

Anonymous Quartermaster February 15, 2016 3:46 PM  

I can't see the Saudis participating in such an exercise either. Also, the Saudis don't exactly have an effective military anyway. Add in the Turks operating obsolescent tanks that aren't the equal of the T-90, and it would be utterly stupid for Erdogan to contemplate going after the Russians.

What Putin has done in Ukraine and Moldova are quite stupid as they distracts from his real interests and place him among pariahs internationally. But he's doing what is best in Syria and I hope he succeeds there.

The Saudis and Turks need to go away and sulk.

Anonymous The Kulak February 16, 2016 3:06 AM  

@ 131 QM - what is Putin doing to subvert Moldova? I thought like Ukraine with the looming mass brawl in the Rada over the Porky vs. Yats no confidence vote this week, they're doing a fine job of that themselves without Vlad and the FSB/SVR. Unless you'd like to join J.R. Nyquist in saying those dastardly Rooskies managed to convince long time State Dept./CIA asset Porky to become their double agent?

Moldova's pro-EU govmt recently collapsed due to a fifth of the country's GDP disappearing with its largest bank. Very little to do with Putin, even the usual Sorosnik E European do-gooders had to admit. Transnistria may be a little shard of the old Soviet Union, but life there is less miserable than in Moldova due to Russian subsidies and pensions however meager that get paid on time. The PMR has been at peace for over two decades, so if that conflict restarts it will be the Ukrainians or Romanians fault acting on NATO orders. If Hildabeast gets in, I wouldn't be surprised if team Khaganate of Nuland comes up with some sort snap anschluss with Moldova (and likely facing pro-Russian insurgents especially in Gagaúzia) who would set it off, all gleefully citing 'the Crimea precedent Putin set' until the Russian flags start waving from taken over gubm't buildings in SE Moldova.

Russia has no overland border to Transnistria so if the Ukrainians attempted a blockade with the Romanians on the Moldovan side, there would be war and possibly a Transnistrian breakout and counterattack to cut the Ukies off from their main port of Odessa, but not actually enter the city. Certainly while Odessa is mostly pro-Ukraine unity, there are more than a few Odessans who would like to put the local SBU thugs and AutoMaidaners up against the wall for what they did burning scores alive on May 2, 2014. Ditto for Mariupol residents who hate the Azov Nazis and would take potshots at some of them if they knew the Russians were coming. But that will have to wait, in the unlikely event it ever happens. Putin seems content to tell the U.S. and Mutti Merkel (the EU-SSR's chief kommissar)'you broke Ukraine on the Maidan, you pay for it -- and the gas bill'.

Vlad has bigger fish to fry in Syria and the Turks have no doubt been quietly conveyed that not only does Russia have more evidence of their ties to ISIS than have been released (maybe even a nice phone call from Bilal Erdogan to one of Baghdadi's boys), but also FOABs if not tactical nukes ready if the Turks attack their main base at Latakia.

Anonymous Bz February 16, 2016 6:42 PM  

"With those kind of numbers; y'all are going to have to play a long game."

In an earlier age, it would have been known as a target rich environment.

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