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Sunday, March 06, 2016

A five-state race

All right, let's break down the Republican math, since the mainstream media appears determined to avoid analyzing the numbers in any manner that is even remotely relevant to future events. I'm using a corrected and updated version of the spreadsheet created by a reader here, Frank B. Luke. According to the latest reports on CNN, Trump has 385 delegates and Cruz has 298.

There are the following delegates up for grabs in the next 10 days. The next seven "states" are proportional:

23 PR
19 HI
32 ID
59 MI
40 MS
69 IL
19 DC

271 total

Let's be conservative and give both Trump and Cruz a minimum of 40 percent of the delegates apiece, or 108. (On Saturday, the day of his big "loss" to Cruz, Cruz took 57 percent and Trump took 44 percent). Now the score is: Trump 493 and Cruz 406. Next comes the big showdown on March 15, winner-takes-all for three states and one territory.

52 MO
99 FL
66 OH
09 (Northern Marianas)

If Trump takes all four, which is currently more likely than not, thhis minimum expected delegate count to 719. Trump will then only need 518 more, 193 of which he can expect to get in a worst-case proportional distribution. (Remember, he can reasonably anticipate more than 108 we assigned him from the 271 available proportional-state delegates; based on the polls, 162 would be a more reasonable estimate.) So, that means to clinch the nomination, he will need somewhere between 271 and 325 delegates from the 606 that remain in the winner-takes-all states, 172 of which are in California.

TL;DR: If Trump wins Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and California, plus one state from the following list (Arizona, Missouri, Indiana, Wisconsin), he wins the nomination. Period. Nothing else matters.

This is why Cruz should spend the week telling his supporters to vote for Rubio in Florida and Kasich in Ohio. But he won't, because his so-called strategists are far more concerned with what they call optics than they are about actual tactics.

It should be amusing to see how many pundits and analysts suddenly start talking about the significance of the difference between winner-takes-all and proportional states without ever mentioning the source. Because despite all of their endless opining, none of them have bothered to work any of this out.

Labels:

147 Comments:

Blogger praetorian March 06, 2016 11:34 AM  

Wait, California might matter?

I gotta get organized...

Anonymous Rolf March 06, 2016 11:38 AM  

Meaning my primary vote, here in WA state, is meaningless, because the primary takes place in late May. The race will already be decided. I'd like a candidate who can reform the primary season schedule so it rotates or something, and folks like me are left with choices someone else made. I really don't want to vote for ANY of the likely (or even possible, at this point) finalists.

Blogger Otto Lamp March 06, 2016 11:39 AM  

Which is why Kasich is staying in, to deny Trump Ohio.

If Trump does end up 1 state short (meaning just a handful of delegates short), it will be interesting to see the GOP's logic in denying the nomination to the guy that had the most delegates.

One prediction: if there is a brokered convention, Cruz will not end up as the nominee.

If you are going to extremes to eliminate your enemy, you might as well eliminate them all at the same time. The GOP establishment no more loves Cruz than Trump.

Blogger Josh March 06, 2016 11:39 AM  

I think Trump wins 2/4, Kasich wins OH, no idea who wins the Northern Marianas.

Blogger Josh March 06, 2016 11:40 AM  

One prediction: if there is a brokered convention, Cruz will not end up as the nominee.

I agree.

If there is a brokered convention, I don't think any of the candidates this year end up as the nominee.

Blogger VD March 06, 2016 11:44 AM  

Which is why Kasich is staying in, to deny Trump Ohio.

If Cruz is a true Sigma, he'll tell his supporters to vote for Kasich in Ohio and Rubio in Florida. But I'll be shocked if he does that.

Blogger Salt March 06, 2016 11:46 AM  

What the bookmakers are saying -

US Presidential Election 2016 - Republican Candidate Betting Odds

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/republican-candidate

Blogger Josh March 06, 2016 11:46 AM  

If Cruz is a true Sigma, he'll tell his supporters to vote for Kasich in Ohio and Rubio in Florida. But I'll be shocked if he does that.

His campaign opened 10 new field offices in Florida, so he probably won't lay down for Rubio there.

Blogger VD March 06, 2016 11:47 AM  

I think Trump wins 2/4, Kasich wins OH, no idea who wins the Northern Marianas.

Florida and Missouri is nearly as good as Florida and Ohio.

Blogger tz March 06, 2016 11:47 AM  

California is the final establishment "firewall". 172 won't be able to push Cruz across the line, but it might stop Trump.

But even here the math is against Cruz. When you have a blue state, the small number of GOP voters in a congressional district matter disproportionately. The devil is in the details:

California’s primary is a winner-take-all system by Congressional District. The Presidential candidate who wins any given Congressional District will receive all 3 delegate appointments for that district. In addition, 10 at large delegates are awarded to the presidential candidate receiving the largest number of votes statewide.

So it might split, but the Red-Cruz are very red. Cruz if he gets 10 districts with 80% majorities, it is only 30 delegates. Trump just needs to get the most votes by one.

But by then - June 7th, D-Day plus one - it should be clear that Cruz cannot win the nomination, so the vote will not be strictly Cruz v.s. Trump on merits or policy, but Brokered v.s. Trump.

I think the point where it becomes clear that it is not Cruz v.s. Trump, but Brokered v.s. Trump (probably the Ides of March - is to brutal!), something will change. Cruz will not be funded by the base just for a brokered convention, so we will see if the establishment kisses up to Cruz or otherwise co-opts him (you can be Romney's VP or a justice - McConnell promises!).

Anonymous Just Sayin' March 06, 2016 11:49 AM  

Media attacks probably won't be enough to stop Trump, although they can make it harder.

But at this point it would only take a little bit of voter fraud...

Blogger tz March 06, 2016 11:50 AM  

Ohio is very blue collar, and things like DHL closing down matter. Kasich isn't well liked. It will be a squeaker but I think Trump will pull it out. Kasich doesn't have any real reason for someone in Ohio to vote for him except he then won't be governor if he is president.

Blogger kmbr March 06, 2016 11:53 AM  

I am more than a little concerned about the fraud they will perpetuate in Florida.

I heard Stone on Alex Jones, I think Friday, he said they've had to dispatch people to Florida and Ohio already because of reports of irregularities. He also said they are looking into 600 (!) reported cases in Texas of voters (Trump always) votes going to Rubio or Cruz. Nothing ever becomes of these investigations so I don't expect much.

Blogger Otto Lamp March 06, 2016 11:58 AM  

"If there is a brokered convention, I don't think any of the candidates this year end up as the nominee."

The looks on the Cruz and Rubio supporters, when the realize they have actually be working to nominate Mitt Romney.

To be honest, I wouldn't be shocked if they tried to give it to Jeb.

Blogger The Other Robot March 06, 2016 12:00 PM  

I gotta get organized...

Register on line: Register to vote

Blogger Noah B March 06, 2016 12:02 PM  

Although I liked him at one time, I just can't imagine anyone voting for Kasich. I believe it was in the previous debate where he claimed he had lowered the national debt by $4 trillion, which was a lie. The GOP controlled Congress in the late 90's had a projection showing that they could lower the debt by that much, but the debt never even stopped increasing.

Most people don't realize that our monetary system is so insane that they can't reduce the debt by that much without unleashing deflationary hell.

OpenID sigbouncer March 06, 2016 12:03 PM  

On the Florida front.

Stone says he has an impartial pollster who now says Trump's lead is dropping substantially and is down to just 6%. Stone says anytime you turn on the tv in Florida, you will see an anti Trump ad running.

Blogger kmbr March 06, 2016 12:09 PM  

@17

I hate to be a naysayer but I am not feeling good about Florida.

I like Trump and I am more than appreciative for how much he has done but as I said before it may not yet be the time and the man for the job.

Blogger Elocutioner March 06, 2016 12:09 PM  

Cruz is smart but he might be blinded by ambition to think that he'd walk out of a brokered convention as the nominee. IF that happens he'll have to throw in with Trump and the half of the base that would leave the party. (Can't shut up or just suddenly "stop fighting" against DC insiders. SC justice bribe won't happen when Mitt loses. And GOP is effectively dead. Only smart play is to jump ship with Trump.)

Blogger Josh March 06, 2016 12:13 PM  

Although I liked him at one time, I just can't imagine anyone voting for Kasich.

He's won a ton of elections in OH, and is popular there IIRC.

Blogger Nick S March 06, 2016 12:15 PM  

I expect Hollyweird to start spitting out various products featuring Rich New Yorker types committing all manner of evil crimes against humanity.

sigbouncer wrote:On the Florida front.

Stone says he has an impartial pollster who now says Trump's lead is dropping substantially and is down to just 6%. Stone says anytime you turn on the tv in Florida, you will see an anti Trump ad running.


What the hell is this freakish obsession with ferret faced Roger Stone? Combine this with the pedestalizing of Trump and I start to get a picture of a closeted gay beta male...or a woman...hey, wait a minute...damn it, Taylor. Is that you?

Blogger James Dixon March 06, 2016 12:17 PM  

> Kasich wins OH

Kasich only took 14% in the bordering state of KY. I'm not sure he's going to win OH. Based sole;y on the results so far, Rubio has a much better chance of taking FL than Kasich does of taking OH.

> To be honest, I wouldn't be shocked if they tried to give it to Jeb.

Jeb, Jeb, he's our guy. If he doesn't get it we're all gonna die. To which the base responds: Is that a promise?

Blogger Josh March 06, 2016 12:19 PM  

What the hell is this freakish obsession with ferret faced Roger Stone? Combine this with the pedestalizing of Trump and I start to get a picture of a closeted gay beta male...or a woman...hey, wait a minute...damn it, Taylor. Is that you?

Thread winner

OpenID sigbouncer March 06, 2016 12:20 PM  

"I hate to be a naysayer but I am not feeling good about Florida."

Roger Stone ‏@RogerJStoneJr 50m50 minutes ago

In 40 years in politics I have never seen the amount or level of negative ads against a candidate that I see bashing @realDonaldTrump in Fla


Anonymous The other robot March 06, 2016 12:23 PM  

Also, you have to register as a Rethug in CA to vote in the Rethug primaries. Put your ethnicity down as Hispanic. With a name like that you can get away with it. Otherwise, use Other. Wrong Skin and all that. Of course if your name is Smith you can claim it was anglicized from Herrera or whatever.

Blogger kmbr March 06, 2016 12:23 PM  

@24

@24

Those old farts in Florida are really fickle too. They just need the slight indication that their beta blocker co-pay might go up 25 cents and they'll vote for Fidel Castro.

OpenID sigbouncer March 06, 2016 12:26 PM  

"What the hell is this freakish obsession with ferret faced Roger Stone?"

Stone has been virtually spot on with what he has been saying. Often times he is way out in front (days or weeks ahead) of the pack with what he says coming true.

If you can't be honest with yourself about Stone's knowledge, experience, predictions and connections during this election cycle. Then that reflects on you.

Anonymous Bobby Farr March 06, 2016 12:29 PM  

Trump's reliance on free media may be part of reason he has lost momentum. He's spent less than half what Rubio and Cruz have spent. Hopefully, he'll regain steam now that most of the organization reliant caucuses are done.

Blogger Josh March 06, 2016 12:32 PM  

Y'all are forgetting about pundit delegates, which Rubio wins 100% of every time he places 3rd or 4th. Because pundit math.

Blogger VD March 06, 2016 12:32 PM  


If you can't be honest with yourself about Stone's knowledge, experience, predictions and connections during this election cycle. Then that reflects on you.


Settle down, Bouncer. Your constant need to attack everyone is getting very tedious. You like Stone. That's fine. It's not your concern if anyone else gives a damn.

Anonymous karsten March 06, 2016 12:33 PM  

The Huffington Post endorses Ted Cruz:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cc4ZuMrWAAEEG5y.jpg

Lie to me again and make the claim that he's not the Establishment Candidate.

Of course he is. He's the (((GOPe)))'s final, stealthiest tool.

Blogger Nick S March 06, 2016 12:33 PM  

sigbouncer wrote:If you can't be honest with yourself...Then that reflects on you.

Implying I said anything dishonest is dishonest and that reflects on you. Apologize.

OpenID b1bae96e-6447-11e3-b6bb-000f20980440 March 06, 2016 12:36 PM  

No love for us Illinoisians. Is it me or has polling been pretty sparse this time around? I feel like we knew more the previous elections, though it could have just been that Romney, McCain, and bush were annointed rather than selected.

Anonymous The other robot March 06, 2016 12:37 PM  

Glenn Beck compares Trump to who else?

This is getting tiresome. Now, where is my Hugo Boss designed uniform?

Blogger Josh March 06, 2016 12:38 PM  

No love for us Illinoisians

No offense, but you bastards did give us Lincoln and Obama.

Blogger James Dixon March 06, 2016 12:44 PM  

> No offense, but you bastards did give us Lincoln and Obama.

Hey, even Illinois knows when it's best to ship someone one of state.

OpenID sigbouncer March 06, 2016 12:46 PM  

"Apologize."

Yeah, no chance of that happening.

Blogger 1337kestrel March 06, 2016 12:49 PM  

But he won't, because his so-called strategists are far more concerned with what they call optics than they are about actual tactics.

Contrariwise, if Cruz wins this, would you recognize his political savvy in defeating both the Trump movement and the other GOP candidates who were all preferred by the "establishment?" He's been between Scylla and Charybdis for months.

Blogger YIH March 06, 2016 12:55 PM  

LOL some site is claiming Little Marco had (female) mistresses! Passing along the link.
As they say, pics or it didn't happen :)

Blogger Student in Blue March 06, 2016 12:56 PM  

Contrariwise, if Cruz wins this, would you recognize his political savvy in defeating both the Trump movement and the other GOP candidates who were all preferred by the "establishment?" He's been between Scylla and Charybdis for months.

It wouldn't be so much "defeating" the Trump movement as it is joining the dogpile, and then winding up the only one who appears anti-establishment afterwards.

Blogger Nick S March 06, 2016 12:56 PM  

sigbouncer wrote:Yeah, no chance of that happening.

Ha! I have so much fun around here. It makes me want use the Amazon link to go buy something.

Anonymous Wyrd March 06, 2016 12:57 PM  

Rabbits scurry to therapists because of The Donald:

http://www.anonymousconservative.com/blog/donald-j-trump-psychiatrist-in-chief/

Even if you consider Trump an abomination, you should still support him for the top-shelf kek such as this.

Anonymous BGKB March 06, 2016 1:00 PM  

Trump is going to have to start spending money to counter the hundreds of millions spent against him. His free publicity ride wont work if all the stations ignore him.

To be honest, I wouldn't be shocked if they tried to give it to Jeb.

If it is brokered Jeb is likely. That's why Trump kept hammering Jeb even when Jeb was in single digits.

The Huffington Post endorses Ted Cruz A year ago that would sound insane

No love for us Illinoisians. I don't think any of the dead in Chicongo will vote R

Blogger pyrrhus March 06, 2016 1:00 PM  

Trump will carry Florida, Illinois, and Arizona---99% sure, and probably by a lot--and very likely Michigan. So if he wins California, it's over.

Blogger pyrrhus March 06, 2016 1:04 PM  

He's won a ton of elections in OH, and is popular there IIRC.

Kasich fought hard for the budget busting Medicaid expansion in Ohio, and won. When this becomes generally known, could seriously hurt his credibility....Kasich also doesn't have a problem with mass immigration....

Blogger Harsh March 06, 2016 1:05 PM  

This is why Cruz should spend the week telling his supporters to vote for Rubio in Florida and Kasich in Ohio.

If Teddy could pull off a ballsy move like that, I'd vote for him over Trump.

He won't of course...

OpenID sigbouncer March 06, 2016 1:06 PM  

>Yeah, no chance of that happening.

"Ha! I have so much fun around here."

That's cuz it's not real, it's the internetz. You can do and say things on the net that you can't get away with in life. Some people thrive on that.

Blogger kmbr March 06, 2016 1:07 PM  

@44 Strangely, last I checked his lead here in AZ was not huge.

Recalibration of the campaign is in order. It starts with a more disciplined candidate. You can still let Trump be Trump, but he's got to be more controlled and disciplined.

The campaign needs to get position papers published, and he needs to stick with them. No more evolving.

The crude jokes have got to be kept to a minimum.

The campaign has got to invest in organization and a ground effort. I still think the race is his, but this thing is in danger of slipping away if they don't get it together.

And last ditch, if fraud is happening unabated, he has nothing to lose by going directly to the people (something he is very good at) and exposing it.

Blogger Harsh March 06, 2016 1:07 PM  

Glenn Beck compares Trump to who else?

Isn't Beck dead yet? Dude must have a cholesterol count of like 500...

Blogger pyrrhus March 06, 2016 1:08 PM  

Trump's reliance on free media may be part of reason he has lost momentum. He's spent less than half what Rubio and Cruz have spent. Hopefully, he'll regain steam now that most of the organization reliant caucuses are done.

Trump is weaker in the closed registered Republicans only race, caucus or otherwise, because of his appeal to Reagan democrats and some minorities...

Anonymous VFM #5166 March 06, 2016 1:09 PM  

Missouri is conservative--more like Kansas than Illinios. I see that being a Cruz state.

Florida's early voters seem to have went big for Trump. Whether that will be enough to make up for the negative onslaught of ads along with election day voters, who seem to be breaking for Cruz, I don't know.

Blogger Matt Edwards March 06, 2016 1:15 PM  

Grouping primaries by sequence seems more appropriate than by percentage/winner-take-all. First come a round of proportional states on the 8th, then on the 10th comes another debate. Only after those two come the big winner-take-all primaries on the 15th.

Momentum, gaffes, etc. can shift things unexpectedly. Also, always in the background is the possibility that Kasich or Rubio might drop out. Even if they don't drop out, voters may decide that their campaigns are a dead end. Polling this cycle, where it was done, has been much better in most cases. But about half the states have no recent data on RCP, so we're flying blind.

We should have a much easier time predicting after the 10th.

Blogger Matt Edwards March 06, 2016 1:18 PM  

1. praetorian March 06, 2016 11:34 AM
Wait, California might matter?

California's primary is tied with 4 other states for LAST in the nation: June 7. So the short answer is: no, they won't matter. It's highly likely the nominee will be picked before then, but if he isn't the last CA poll (January) had Cruz over Trump by 2 points.

Blogger Harsh March 06, 2016 1:19 PM  

Given all this, is Trumps call for Rubio to drop out the correct play?

Blogger YIH March 06, 2016 1:20 PM  

The other robot:
Glenn Beck compares Trump to who else?
It's been said that psycho killers begin with animals...

Blogger Salt March 06, 2016 1:20 PM  

Marco's troubles are increasing.

BREAKING: Rubio’s Alleged MISTRESSES Have Been Identified (Marco, You’ve Got Some Explaining To Do)

http://clashdaily.com/2016/03/breaking-rubios-mistresses-have-been-identified-marco-youve-got-some-explaining-to-do/

Blogger Matt Edwards March 06, 2016 1:23 PM  

6. VD March 06, 2016 11:44 AM
Which is why Kasich is staying in, to deny Trump Ohio.

If Cruz is a true Sigma, he'll tell his supporters to vote for Kasich in Ohio and Rubio in Florida. But I'll be shocked if he does that.


Cruz announced that he's opening 10 new campaign centers in FL. That's not the move of someone who wants to game the system with Rubio. Cruz is trying to drive him from the field, thinking (almost certainly correctly) that he'll get most of Rubio's supporters permanently.

Blogger Billy March 06, 2016 1:28 PM  

It's almost over for Cruz. He's running out of Evangelicals and Caucuses.

Blogger Matt Edwards March 06, 2016 1:31 PM  

19. Elocutioner March 06, 2016 12:09 PM
Cruz is smart but he might be blinded by ambition to think that he'd walk out of a brokered convention as the nominee.

Cruz already said the idea of a brokered convention was establishment nonsense. Wishcasting. Even if they had control of the votes (which they don't), it would be threading a needle with all the winner-take-all states coming up.
On top of the difficulty, it just isn't a good idea in a year when the base is already furious.
I give it a 10% at best of occurring.

Blogger Matt Edwards March 06, 2016 1:35 PM  

31. karsten March 06, 2016 12:33 PM
The Huffington Post endorses Ted Cruz

I expect a full-throated repudiation of this hate speech by Cruz. There is NO PLACE for HuffPo in a civilized society, and he should reject their endorsement!

Blogger Nick S March 06, 2016 1:36 PM  

sigbouncer wrote:That's cuz it's not real, it's the internetz.

Spreading joy and fighting the forces of evil, I have fun everywhere I go. Now rein in your OCD and don't make me regret cutting you a little slack.

Blogger Matt Edwards March 06, 2016 1:39 PM  

40. Student in Blue March 06, 2016 12:56 PM
It wouldn't be so much "defeating" the Trump movement as it is joining the dogpile, and then winding up the only one who appears anti-establishment afterwards.

Sorry, there's no crying in baseball and no whining in politics. You didn't seriously expect the establishment to roll over for you, did you?
Besides, where's the glory in defeating milquetoasts?

Blogger Matt Edwards March 06, 2016 1:43 PM  

45. pyrrhus March 06, 2016 1:04 PM
He's won a ton of elections in OH, and is popular there IIRC.

Kasich fought hard for the budget busting Medicaid expansion in Ohio, and won. When this becomes generally known, could seriously hurt his credibility....Kasich also doesn't have a problem with mass immigration....


Kasich is a dick, for the reason you state and also because after expanding the program over the objections of his own state party, he went on a vendetta against anyone who opposed him on it.
That's some underhanded, beyond the pale shit there. You don't do that to your own party members, assuming there were honest disagreements.

I think Kasich hasn't been attacked because it's never been necessary to attack him. That might change soon, and if it does I think he'll prove to have a glass jaw.

Anonymous Steve March 06, 2016 1:43 PM  

Recalibration of the campaign is in order. It starts with a more disciplined candidate. You can still let Trump be Trump, but he's got to be more controlled and disciplined.

The campaign needs to get position papers published, and he needs to stick with them. No more evolving.

The crude jokes have got to be kept to a minimum.


Trump must know that, as you get closer to closing a big deal, your job gets harder - not easier.

The customer often starts feeling last minute doubts about making a big decision. The competition gets fiercer. FUD becomes more intense.

So yes, he needs to sharpen his campaign if he wants to close the biggest deal of his life with the American people as the Republican nominee.

The rambunctious early campaign stuff is no longer necessary or helpful. That was good for getting attention in a crowded race. At this stage of the sales cycle, he's already gotten the customer's attention. Now he needs to convince them to put pen to paper.

The free publicity is probably a net negative at this point, since virtually every media outlet is calling him Hitlersatan. He should spend money to counter it.

He should sharpen his rhetoric to focus like dynamite with a laser beam on immigration and jobs. Hammer Cruz on these points. Differentiate Trump the pragmatic patriot from Cruz the goofy superconservative ideologue.

Stop allowing rivals to distract him into talking about his dick and project DONALD TRUMP: PRESIDENT IN WAITING into people's minds.

Jeb's dead and the foam party was cancelled. It's Trump v Cruz now. Shit just got real.

Blogger VD March 06, 2016 1:46 PM  

Given all this, is Trumps call for Rubio to drop out the correct play?

Yes, if he thinks Rubio can win Florida. No, if he thinks he can't. But I doubt Trump is thinking strategically. He's an instinctive tactician, not an intellectual strategist.

Blogger The Other Robot March 06, 2016 1:47 PM  

538 (via Daily Pundit) supports the same analysis, I think.

At 67% of his target it only gets harder from here.

Cruz is the biggest of the losers and brings the most to Trump, I think.

It would be great to see him as the AG and in charge of DoJ. That would be refreshing.

Blogger VD March 06, 2016 1:47 PM  

For the second time, stop talking about yourself, Bouncer. No one asked.

And Nick, you zip it too. There is nothing more boring than Internet posturing.

Blogger Matt Edwards March 06, 2016 1:49 PM  

54. Harsh March 06, 2016 1:19 PM
Given all this, is Trumps call for Rubio to drop out the correct play?

Yeah, I didn't really get that. The two ways it makes sense are
1) Some kind of recent, secret polling shows Rubio with a good chance of beating Trump in FL.
2) Polling doesn't show #1, but it's a reverse psychology move.

Otherwise, it would benefit Cruz and makes no sense.

Blogger Cinco March 06, 2016 1:51 PM  

The rust belt belongs to Trump. As soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for the others to secure the nomination through the delegate count, the herd moves to Trump. Deep down, the gammas don't care to vote for losers.

Glad to see someone finally sat down and crunched some numbers. The MSM is hopelessly incompetent.

Blogger Nick S March 06, 2016 1:51 PM  

You got it, Picollino.

Blogger Matt Edwards March 06, 2016 1:52 PM  

58. Billy March 06, 2016 1:28 PM
It's almost over for Cruz. He's running out of Evangelicals and Caucuses.
Huh?
Evangelicals weren't voting for him where they *should* have, and non-Evangelicals were voting for him where they (maybe) shouldn't.
KS is not a big Bible Belt state, IIRC. Just kinda more straight conservative. I KNOW Maine isn't either one, usually.

OpenID b1bae96e-6447-11e3-b6bb-000f20980440 March 06, 2016 1:59 PM  

Look, its not our fault you all haven't learned not to trust an Illinois politician. That's a fool me once sort of thing.

@42 The Donald will do for therapist and pharmaceuticals what Obama did for gun manufacturers.

Of course, that stands a good chance of increasing the number of mass murders that take place. Still... when SHTF I like our sides odds.


@50 Trump's plan was always going to need the GOPe to set up and push the GOTV. He may be "self financed" but he still isn't all that interested in spending $500 million of his own money on this.

Blogger Timmy3 March 06, 2016 2:03 PM  

Trump is more likely to win Rubio and Kasich supporters so it is correct for him to ask them to drop out yet Cruz is also calling for a two man race so maybe Cruz knows something we don't. While I think Trump will ultimately win, the journey is much more interesting for very few politicians endorsed Cruz. This is about validating Cruz and the future of the alternative right with Cruz as the leader regardless of Trump winning. The existing Republican Party is dead for their broken promises.

OpenID sigbouncer March 06, 2016 2:03 PM  

"There is nothing more boring than Internet posturing."

That pretty well sums up my deleted post.

Blogger kmbr March 06, 2016 2:05 PM  

@71
--KS is not a big Bible Belt state, IIRC. Just kinda more straight conservative.---

Santorum won there. And it is home to Westboro Baptist Church. I think it has more than it's fair share.

Don't get me wrong, I'd rather live among evangelicals than northeastern liberals but they do tend to vote in some weird suicide fashion which makes me crazy.

Blogger WhiskeyPreacher March 06, 2016 2:06 PM  

I've been thinking a lot about the general.

The interesting thing is if you look at the state by state results from 2012:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012

Romney's 206 is rock solid. While the democrats have a lot of weaknesses.

I think Trump might go to Kaisch for VP.

1. Very little fighting between them.
2. Their opinions mostly play well together-3except immigration. And frankly, a perceived control on that in the general would be good.
3. Most crucially....love them, but the south is not only solid red...but strong trump.

The obvious expansion of the party is the northeast. Kaisich has solid blue collar credentials....ohio and PA were both very close in 2012. Trump will put NY in play....possibly even Mass.

Floridia was 50.01 for Obama...but in a trump year? Dunno.

If Bernie gets schlonged bad....and he appears to be going to the convention- several things. His base drops out. Double as she won't even be able to offer VP. Vermont might be in play. More amusing than crucial...but still.

Hillary has to play defense in her weaknesses-blue collar whites. Trumps economics will play well...add in Christie and Kaisich at vp and we can open up the rust belt.

VA, FL, Ohio, PA...done.

But this is Trump. Hes quite deliberately torn the GOP down. And you know what he does when he tears something down?

He builds something better.

Hes after blue collar dems and working class blacks. Given that he isnt after government slashing? He maybe could put professional black women in play.

Policies, and roughedged professionalism. Like a teamster in a suit.

Blogger Timmy3 March 06, 2016 2:20 PM  

"I think Trump might go to Kaisch for VP"

Kasich brings nothing to the table. Think strategically. Trump already embodies Kasich's appeal and positions. It's more two of the same like Romney and Ryan and a loser as a pair. Kasich is firmly against Trump's immigration policy so Trump will work overtime to dispel fears he and Kasich will soften his promises.

Trump needs someone that will fully support all of Trump's policies without question. Seems like Cruz although there are a few months for that to become reality. Perhaps its more likely to be Senator Sessions.

Blogger Nate March 06, 2016 2:20 PM  

"This is why Cruz should spend the week telling his supporters to vote for Rubio in Florida and Kasich in Ohio. But he won't, because his so-called strategists are far more concerned with what they call optics than they are about actual tactics."

***chuckle***

No.

This is why the establishment should order their boys... and K and Rube are without question Their Boys... to support Cruz.

Now... raise your hand if you think that is gonna happen.

OpenID sigbouncer March 06, 2016 2:26 PM  

"This is why the establishment should order their boys... and K and Rube are without question Their Boys... to support Cruz."

That would be like releasing the Trojan Horse in Greece instead of Troy.

Anonymous BGKB March 06, 2016 2:27 PM  

Still... when SHTF I like our sides odds.

The only black swan event leftists can pretend to comprehend is the Black Swan movie. I hated when that movie came out, I kept thinking people were having intelligent conversations only to be mistaken.

OT:Hey all you Carson Supporters talking about his 70 member surgical team doing the equivalent of 3 Wipples on octogenarians.
http://www.anonymousconservative.com/blog/the-benefits-of-r-selection/
"There are good things which come from free resources combined with a psychology willing to happily risk wasting it on something that won’t work"

Anonymous The other robot March 06, 2016 2:35 PM  

I kinda feel the deal will be done and announced today.

Perhaps I am wrong, but the teams have got to modelling the shit out of this and looking at 538 and so on.

However, it is possible that Cruz is taking heart from all the White Hispanic Republicans registered to vote in CA.

Blogger tz March 06, 2016 2:39 PM  

The problem - why CA matters - is Trump is currently on a trajectory to get just around 50%, say 52%. 49% means the unbound delegates decide. If his slope increases to 60%, game over.

I wonder if any of his Wall St. contacts have any records of something like Heidi Cruz trading Cattle Futures and winning - hey I just realized the luck of the coin toss in Iowa and luck of the draw in Nevada continues her "winning streak".

Blogger S1AL March 06, 2016 2:40 PM  

"The Huffington Post endorses Ted Cruz"

Yeah. It's now time for a Downfall parody.

Blogger SciVo March 06, 2016 2:51 PM  

Matt Edwards wrote:54. Harsh March 06, 2016 1:19 PM

Given all this, is Trumps call for Rubio to drop out the correct play?

Yeah, I didn't really get that. The two ways it makes sense are

1) Some kind of recent, secret polling shows Rubio with a good chance of beating Trump in FL.

2) Polling doesn't show #1, but it's a reverse psychology move.

3) It was actually to knock Kasich down by assuming he was already gone. From Breitbart:

10:54: Trump says Rubio should drop out of the race. “I think it’s time he drops out.” Trump says he would love to take on Cruz in an one-on-one matchup. “I want Ted one-on-one,” he says.

Blogger Matt Edwards March 06, 2016 2:55 PM  

73. Timmy3 March 06, 2016 2:03 PM
Trump is more likely to win Rubio and Kasich supporters...
Wow. Just...wow.
Trump performed at expectation last night, Cruz way overperformed, and Rubio way underperformed.
Now where do you think Cruz' extra supporters came from? I can only give you two chances since there are only 3 other candidates in the race.
A) Trump
B) Kasich
C) Rubio

Blogger Scott March 06, 2016 2:59 PM  

Interesting stat. Cruz is taking states with closed primaries. Initially I thought it would be the other way around; I assumed dems would throw for Cruz in open states to save Hillary. But it appears the opposite is happening. Open states are a pretty clear indication Trump is grabbing a lot of dem votes. Trump Democrats.

Too bad Florida is a closed primary state...

Blogger Timmy3 March 06, 2016 3:01 PM  

@Matt. You assumed they over and under performed. Maybe Cruz got Carson supporters since he dropped out. Think about that?

Blogger Harsh March 06, 2016 3:01 PM  

“I want Ted one-on-one,” he says.

You sure that isn't a Rubio quote?

Anonymous Cyclone Bob March 06, 2016 3:02 PM  

YIH- "some site is claiming Little Marco had (female) mistresses!"


Yeah, but were they born female?

Blogger Matt Edwards March 06, 2016 3:04 PM  

86. Scott March 06, 2016 2:59 PM
Trump Democrats.
That sounds great until you wonder whether they really *are* his. Will they stay with him in the general, or are they just dicking with him?
Who knows.

Blogger Matt Edwards March 06, 2016 3:06 PM  

87. Timmy3 March 06, 2016 3:01 PM
@Matt. You assumed they over and under performed. Maybe Cruz got Carson supporters since he dropped out. Think about that?
Some of that support, surely. But Cruz outperformed in KS by 25%. Carson didn't have that much support, ever. Cruz outperformed in LA and KY by 10% to 15%.

Blogger Student in Blue March 06, 2016 3:08 PM  

@Matt Edwards
Sorry, there's no crying in baseball and no whining in politics. You didn't seriously expect the establishment to roll over for you, did you?
Besides, where's the glory in defeating milquetoasts?


You're mistaking my comment as crying foul. It's not, it's perfectly legitimate and a move Cruz would be a fool not to take.

To say Cruz did the defeating is just giving too much credit to Cruz however. It also paints the picture that Cruz was an inevitable victor from the beginning, and I'm fairly convinced that the GOPe already had a plan to have him neutered from the beginning if Trump didn't upset the apple cart.

OpenID sigbouncer March 06, 2016 3:19 PM  

86. Scott March 06, 2016 2:59 PM
>Trump Democrats.

"That sounds great until you wonder whether they really *are* his. Will they stay with him in the general, or are they just dicking with him?
Who knows."

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/us_politics/2016/02/amid_trump_surge_nearly_20000_mass_voters_quit_democratic_party

Blogger 1337kestrel March 06, 2016 3:21 PM  

Black Swan...

Trump / Sanders 2016

The unbeatable ticket.

Blogger Anthony March 06, 2016 3:21 PM  

Calling for Rubio is a total reverse psychology move. Rubio won't even consider it now, even if he gets hammered in Florida. If Trump hadn't said anything and Rubio blew Florida, he might have bailed then.

Also, calling for Rubio to drop out sends a message to his voters, and some of them will switch to backing the strong horse.

OpenID b1bae96e-6447-11e3-b6bb-000f20980440 March 06, 2016 3:23 PM  

@86 Operation Chaos is not likely.

1) The Dems couldn't possibly keep it so secret when it would be roughly the size of 25% of their primary base.
2) Hillary doesn't have things locked up yet through legitimate voter turnout and that is more important than a super delegate shiv
3) Dem whites are in open revolt hence Bernie beating her in the white states.

Now Bernie can't be allowed to win, but on the off chance he does blacks are going to view him as the white candidate, and there will be serious defections to Trump. Trump really will pull 20%. Which would be utterly delicious to watch MSM heads melt on live TV.

Biden really is the Dems best chance at this point. Working class whites like him, and being Obama's faithful #2 won't make him the white candidate.

Blogger tz March 06, 2016 3:25 PM  

Then there's the Trump card. Canada did not allow dual citizenship when Cruz was born. In order to assert US citizenship, there's a form (with a carbon copy to assign the social security number!). When did Teddy get his SSN? I think they are assigned serially or in a way that could indicate if he got one in 1970 or far later as well as the first digits are assigned geographically. Ted's SSN could probably prove his status (VFM?).

Blogger RobertT March 06, 2016 3:28 PM  

Conservative, globalist, free traders are selling us into slavery.

Blogger tz March 06, 2016 3:31 PM  

This is why Cruz should spend the week telling his supporters to vote for Rubio in Florida and Kasich in Ohio.

What I don't understand is how that gets Cruz to 1237. It can get to a brokered convention. I know Sigmas have a Joker/Chaotic streak (Maybe why I've not been invited back to my company HQ in WA since the state has a 'use the restroom you identify as'" - I'm Mr. Congeniality, but also have a very wide impish streak and want any expansion to occur in someplace sane and have a non-SJW conflict with HR).

Blogger justaguy March 06, 2016 3:32 PM  

Brokered convention could easily result in Trump/Cruz. I don't see how Trump/Rubio works because of Rubio's continued support of some form of amnesty, but politics works in strange ways.

Anonymous Leonidas March 06, 2016 3:33 PM  

Team Cruz can do this math as well as anybody and they know it. He's holding on for two reasons: the Hail Mary play that might play out for him (but probably won't), and because he wants to be damn certain that he's set up as the man whose "turn" it is in 2020 or 2024.

Won't help him all that much if the GOPe decides that, yeah, he's kind of their guy... but he's their last choice guy and they have other guys in 2020/2024.

Blogger tz March 06, 2016 3:34 PM  

To revise and extend @99 - the only option for Cruz before Tuesday if he doesn't want a brokered convention is to have both Kasich and Rubio drop out with an obsequious endorsement of Cruz and hope he can take FL and OH (despite the ballots not being able to be updated).

The most wonderful thing about 2016 is that the GOP process is Tragedy, Farce, and very entertaining at the same time.

Blogger tz March 06, 2016 3:37 PM  

@100 No brokered convention would nominate Trump or Cruz. Ryan, McConnell, or Romney are far more likely.

@101 Convert to Catholicism before attempting a Hail Mary pass. The war of the Rosaries.

Anonymous average bob March 06, 2016 3:47 PM  

I am from ohio. Kasich is not all that popular, he is a rino. I think trump will beat him.

Anonymous johnc March 06, 2016 3:59 PM  

I remember the good ol' days (like, ten years ago) when the "conservatives" would come out screaming with pitchforks and torches at the mere mention of amnesty.

Now we have a pro-amnesty guy leading the race for the Republican nomination. Aaaaand... nobody cares.

Anonymous johnc March 06, 2016 4:03 PM  

Looks like Rubio will win the Puerto Rican delegates handily today.

...if anyone had any doubts...

Anonymous The other robot March 06, 2016 4:26 PM  

And Cruz claims that "reporters" are sitting on Trump bombshells.

Anonymous Anonymous March 06, 2016 4:46 PM  

Carson was in the 20s in LA before his implosion. There was a reserve for Cruz to draw from there.

--Observer

Blogger Were-Puppy March 06, 2016 4:49 PM  

@21 Nick S

What the hell is this freakish obsession with ferret faced Roger Stone?
---

You Cruzers have got Beck. Nuff said.

Blogger Were-Puppy March 06, 2016 4:51 PM  

@25 The other robot

Also, you have to register as a Rethug in CA to vote in the Rethug primaries. Put your ethnicity down as Hispanic.
--

Is there a box for White Hispanic?

Blogger Were-Puppy March 06, 2016 5:00 PM  

@45 pyrrhus
Kasich fought hard for the budget busting Medicaid expansion in Ohio, and won.
--

Was there anything to the comments I have heard that Fruit Ninja somehow worked Jesus into being in support of Obamacare?

Blogger The Other Robot March 06, 2016 5:03 PM  

Is there a box for White Hispanic?

As I recall, one of the categories is Hispanic, non white, but not sure if Hispanic is there by itself.

Blogger The Other Robot March 06, 2016 5:22 PM  

SNL compares Trump's rise to Hitler's.

Trump must be doing something correct then.

Blogger Were-Puppy March 06, 2016 5:25 PM  

@62 Matt Edwards

Sorry, there's no crying in baseball and no whining in politics.
---

But can there be cryin' in Politics?

The Secret of Blubberin' Beck

Anonymous Steve March 06, 2016 6:04 PM  

Were-Puppy - I thought Mr Beck's alcoholic brain damage explained his ostentatious emotional incontinence.

But it turns out he's a PT Barnum style shenaniganizer all along.

Sadly, in these degenerate times the stiff upper lip has somewhat gone out of style in Britain.

But I believe the law still states that a crying man who is not: a) at a loved one's funeral; or b) a professional football player who just missed a penalty against Germany in the World Cup; should be called a big girl's blouse and pelted with crisps.

Blogger Ian Miguel Martin March 06, 2016 6:23 PM  

"He's won a ton of elections in OH, and is popular there IIRC."

I’m no political junkie, but my vague sense here on the ground is that Kasich is not widely loved or hated, but instead just broadly accepted, as a fact of life, a reasonable compromise between the Blue metros and the Red hinterlands. I can’t predict the outcome, but in response to Trump’s populism he’ll pull on a work-shirt, grab a lunch-pail, and probably do okay. If you want competent, responsibly managed deterioration and decline, Kasich is your man.

Blogger Matt Edwards March 06, 2016 6:54 PM  

93. sigbouncer March 06, 2016 3:19 PM
86. Scott March 06, 2016 2:59 PM
>Trump Democrats.

"That sounds great until you wonder whether they really *are* his. Will they stay with him in the general, or are they just dicking with him?
Who knows."

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/us_politics/2016/02/amid_trump_surge_nearly_20000_mass_voters_quit_democratic_party


From your own article:
"Secretary of State William Galvin said more than 16,300 Democrats have shed their party affiliation and become independent voters since Jan. 1, while nearly 3,500 more shifted to the MassGOP ahead of tomorrow’s “Super Tuesday” presidential primary.

...In Massachusetts unenrolled — otherwise known as independent — voters can cast a ballot in the primary of any party."

So it's possible most of those people switched to independent to have more flexibility in voting. They will be free to vote one way in the R primary and still vote D in the general.

Blogger Were-Puppy March 06, 2016 6:59 PM  

It's also possible they see the fix is in for Hitlery, and those Bernie people want to put the big finger to her and they see Trump as their weapon.

Blogger Matt Edwards March 06, 2016 7:01 PM  

113. Were-Puppy March 06, 2016 5:25 PM
But can there be cryin' in Politics?

We had John Boehner, didn't we?

Blogger Were-Puppy March 06, 2016 7:19 PM  

This is too funny not to share:

http://www.breitbart.com/big-hollywood/2016/03/05/trans-lgbt-communities-unhinged-bruce-jenners-ted-cruz-support/

Now if Tundra Teddy can cause more such fits, I might warm up to his candidacy

OpenID sigbouncer March 06, 2016 7:20 PM  

"So it's possible most of those people switched to independent to have more flexibility in voting. They will be free to vote one way in the R primary and still vote D in the general."

Possible but not very likely due to the breakdown being 16,300 Democrats and only 3,500 Republicans. Along with considering that Trump won Massachusetts with a 49.3% of the vote. Up 14% from his win in neighboring New Hampshire.

We all know how loyal Trump voters have shown to be. You can count on a high percentage of those Democrat voters who switched to vote in the Massachusetts primary being there for him in the fall.

I've said this before here, but Trump's easiest path to POTUS is via an Independent run. Which I expect him to due before the Republican convention. Trump is good for flipping up to 10% of Democrats for my money.

Blogger Josh March 06, 2016 7:33 PM  

I've said this before here, but Trump's easiest path to POTUS is via an Independent run. Which I expect him to due before the Republican convention. Trump is good for flipping up to 10% of Democrats for my money.

You couldn't be more wrong

Anonymous johnc March 06, 2016 7:38 PM  

There is a theory that Democrats will vote in a Republican open primary in order to help select the candidate they feel is easiest to beat in November.

This is more likely to happen when there isn't much of a race in their own Party's primary, and it's actually a pretty good tactic.

Anonymous Anonymous March 06, 2016 7:45 PM  

That theory is stupid, because the math never adds up (Mass is a case in point, Trump's margin was just too big for the 16k of Dem switchers to matter). It's just psyops. Democrats say it and idiots think it's doable so Dems get the psychological benefits without having to do anything.

--Observer

OpenID sigbouncer March 06, 2016 7:45 PM  

"You couldn't be more wrong"

Time will tell. What's your take on how it goes down?

Anonymous An Observer March 06, 2016 7:46 PM  

That theory is stupid, because the math never adds up (Mass is a case in point, Trump's margin was just too big for the 16k of Dem switchers to matter). It's just psyops. Democrats say it and idiots think it's doable so Dems get the psychological benefits without having to do anything.

--Observer

OpenID sigbouncer March 06, 2016 7:51 PM  

Two words. Reagan Democrats. I'll leave it at that.

Anonymous johnc March 06, 2016 8:00 PM  

Weren't Reagan Democrats socially conservative though?

Trump has no real appeal to either conservatives or Democrats. And wait until after he moderates all of his boisterous rhetorical positions. He's going to lose all of the so-called America-first nationalists, and the blue collar factory workers, etc. Wait until all his supporters find out that along with the big, beautiful wall there is also going to be amnesty.

The Democrats are going to slaughter this guy in the campaign, as they will Cruz as well.

Blogger The Other Robot March 06, 2016 8:12 PM  

I think we have another concern troll:

I am so concerned that the Democrats are going to slaughter these guys you knuckle-dragging morons here are supporting that I have to tell you to support someone else from the GOPe

Anonymous johnc March 06, 2016 8:19 PM  

What the hell is a concern troll?

Blogger Nate March 06, 2016 8:27 PM  

"What the hell is a concern troll?"

you.

Blogger The Other Robot March 06, 2016 8:27 PM  

Uh oh. Seems that the Chinese government wants to clamp down on homosexual propaganda in movies, including foreign movies.

Get ready for the media to discover that the Chinese are evil.

Maybe Trump can justify tariffs on the basis of Homophobia in the source country.

Blogger Nate March 06, 2016 8:28 PM  

"Time will tell. What's your take on how it goes down?"

the easiest path is for Trump to win the GOP outright. He practically has it sewn up already.

Running independent.. he would already have to be collecting signatures to even get on the ballot in some states... like Texas.

Blogger Nate March 06, 2016 8:33 PM  

"Get ready for the media to discover that the Chinese are evil."

they don't seem to notice the same thing about saudi. I doubt they will notice it about their commie cousins.

Blogger Matt Edwards March 06, 2016 8:37 PM  

I wanted to make a point about predictions, and especially polls:
RCP is usually the best source since they aggregate all respectable polls.
There are 21 Republican primaries that occur after 3/15. 12 of those have no polls whatsoever (for example, Montana). 8 of those have partially indicative polls: maybe 1 poll conducted since February.
Only one state, New Jersey, has enough recent polls (I think RCP's methodology is one month old or more recent, and there must be at least 3 polls in that timeframe) to warrant a score, and all of those polls are from February.

Essentially, there is no reliable information on any of the states after 3/15.

Blogger Were-Puppy March 06, 2016 8:39 PM  

@130 The Other Robot

There goes Narcos idea of "Gay Anchor Babies Gone Wild" series being a breakout hit in China.

Blogger Matt Edwards March 06, 2016 8:41 PM  

P.S. That list includes 3 of Vox's "big win" states: PA, NJ and CA.
It also has most of the alternate states: AZ, WI, IN.

This is just blind guesswork.

Blogger Matt Edwards March 06, 2016 9:16 PM  

Here is my analysis of each of the next few states:
Generally speaking, Kasich is a regional candidate. Any appeal he has doesn't much translate out of the Midwest/Upper Midwest.

19 HI - Liberal state (++Trump/Rubio), closed primary (-Trump), Western state (+Cruz), heavy real estate market (++Trump).
Verdict: Trump 40, Rubio/Cruz 20
32 ID - Conservative state (++Cruz), closed primary (+Cruz), Western state (+Cruz), middle economic state (+Cruz/Rubio).
Verdict: Cruz in a landslide.
59 MI - Liberal state (+Trump/Rubio), open primary (+Trump), Upper Midwest state (+Rubio/Kasich), sliding economic prospects (+Trump/Kasich).
Verdict: Trump 40, Cruz 25
40 MS - Conservative state (+Cruz), open primary (+Trump), Southern state (-Kasich), poor (+Trump).
Verdict: Trump 40, Cruz 35.
69 IL - Liberal state (-Cruz), open primary (+Trump), Midwest (+Trump/Kasich), middle economics (neutral).
Verdict: Trump 35, Cruz 25, Kasich/Rubio 20
19 DC - Rubio. C'mon. Like, ALL the delegates.

So overall, Trump gains but not enough for a knockout blow.

Blogger Matt Edwards March 06, 2016 9:23 PM  

P.S. Because Rubio seems to be sliding and Cruz is now seen as the only viable alternative to Trump, Cruz is developing a floor of support of about 20%. Hence, his showing in IL and MI.

Blogger The Other Robot March 06, 2016 9:54 PM  

@134: Seems China is concerned about Western propaganda:

"We must clearly see that the international hostile forces are stepping up strategic attempts to westernize China, and ideological and cultural fields are a focus for long-term infiltration," Hu said in an essay published this week in Seeking Truth, the Communist Party's official magazine.

Communist party concern trolls!

Blogger Cicatrizatic March 06, 2016 11:08 PM  

Pretty much spot on. What do you think the Ohio results will be? Im thinking Trump 35, Kasich 30

Blogger Matt Edwards March 06, 2016 11:38 PM  

139. Cicatrizatic March 06, 2016 11:08 PM
Pretty much spot on. What do you think the Ohio results will be? Im thinking Trump 35, Kasich 30

Too close to call. The last RCP poll still had Carson at 5, and Rubio has also slipped since then. I don't think Trump gets the majority of the votes, but I don't know if they go to Cruz or Kasich.
I can't call it between the three of them.
Also, that's on the 15th so there's still time for other events to take over: Trump gaffes in 3/10 debate? Rubio drops out? Who knows.

Blogger Samuel Nock March 07, 2016 3:46 AM  

Assuming Trump gets the nomination, a third-party run by some Republican establishment figure seems likely. Any bets on whether that would give the election to Hillary, or could Trump still win in the general?

Anonymous New guy in town March 07, 2016 11:29 AM  

I love how Kasich is supposedly leading in my state of Michigan. Make me think shenanigans much?

Blogger Shimshon March 07, 2016 12:07 PM  

Wead has some comments on how the GOPe can still deny Trump.

https://dougwead.wordpress.com/2016/03/07/how-the-establishment-will-now-try-to-steal-the-nomination-from-donald-trump/

Anonymous BGKB March 07, 2016 12:45 PM  

were-puppy trans-lgbt-communities-unhinged-bruce-jenners-ted-cruz-support.. Now if Tundra Teddy can cause more such fits, I might warm up to his candidacy

A gay couple that invited Ted Cruz to a dinner party ended up getting banned from gay club, & faced boy cot calls.
http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/04/26/gay-businessman-who-hosted-cruz-event-apologizes/?_r=0

Blogger Samuel Nock March 07, 2016 9:18 PM  

@145

Shimshon, thanks for that link. Eye-opening stuff to learn how many games can be played at the local level.

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