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Tuesday, March 08, 2016

For the record

Trump has no chance in Ohio, will lose Florida though Cruz trying to help him. God willing, he is done on March 16th. Rubio-Kasich
- Louise Mensch

I no longer do political predictions, I content myself with more reliable things such as electoral math. But I do find it very strange to hear that Donald Trump "has no chance in Ohio" considering that he is still leading Kasich in the most recent polls there.

Today's votes in Hawaii, Idaho, and Michigan are largely irrelevant. As long as Trump gets at least 30 percent of the delegates, he's fine. The only relevance they have at this point is to the extent they indicate the results in Florida, Ohio, and Missouri, as Trump needs to take two of the three winner-takes-all states.

And just because it's funny:

Labels:

177 Comments:

Anonymous Faceless March 08, 2016 11:36 AM  

Michigan voting is very heavy for a primary. This looked like a general election. My suburban precinct had a full parking lot (former high school) at 7:05 am, when I was number 9 in my district, with 30 people queued up behind me by the time I got my ballot. Similar story in the four other precincts in that building. By contrast, in 2012, I was the first voter, and somebody else I knew who voted at the end of the day was 58th in the same precinct. Everyone is voting GOP - the poll worker asked the precinct supervisor to just take away the pile of Democrat ballots and keep bringing more and more GOP ballots, as nobody was requesting Dem ballots.

Separately, I've heard from rural precincts and areas where you expect the retirees and leisure set that, at 11 am, there were still lines, with 90 and 91 this year instead of about 20 and 21 in 2012.

I saw only Ted Cruz supporters out with the "Trust Ted TRUSTED' signs, but they were neither friendly nor engaging. Mostly reading their phones - not even trying to encourage people to vote for Ted.

The radio is covered with Bernie commercials - not just the black talk station, but the white rock station - Spike Lee and Bernie from Brooklyn.

Anonymous Broken Arrow March 08, 2016 11:52 AM  

Look at her timeline and you'll see she's practically obsessed with beating Trump so this prediction holds little water. How many times can she post the same Hooter picture? That's much less disturbing to me than the Establishment guy having his arms around some bankers.

Anonymous Til March 08, 2016 11:54 AM  

Anyone here who still supports Cruz:

http://www.aim.org/aim-column/trump-threatens-north-american-union-scheme/

Why is his wife on record as a committee member and supporter of North American Integration?

Inquiring minds would like to know. You would think that a CFR/Goldman wife would be a bit of a dealbreaker, but Trump Derangement Syndrome is something to behold.

Anonymous BGKB March 08, 2016 12:01 PM  

Even more reason to support TRUMP destroy common core, the guy that designed it to drag down Asians/whites to black/brown levels is getting ready to dumb down the SAT
http://www.thenewamerican.com/culture/education/item/17809-common-core-architect-now-dumbing-down-sat

"Another key emphasis in the new SAT will be “fairness,” reducing “inequality,” and “providing opportunity” So much for SAT- IQ conversions, they have been removing questions non Asian minorities scored badly on since before it took it but now.


Hey Cruz supporters what a headline "Pastor who spoke out for Ted Cruz is doing 'absolutely fine' after being shot in the head"
http://www.latimes.com/nation/nationnow/la-na-cruz-pastor-shot-20160307-story.html

Anonymous VFM #6306 March 08, 2016 12:04 PM  

"Make sure the cashier is dead."

Journalism 101.

Blogger Nate March 08, 2016 12:06 PM  

make sure the cashier is dead

Blogger S1AL March 08, 2016 12:06 PM  

"Hey Cruz supporters what a headline "Pastor who spoke out for Ted Cruz is doing 'absolutely fine' after being shot in the head"
http://www.latimes.com/nation/nationnow/la-na-cruz-pastor-shot-20160307-story.html"

Something, something, angry/violent Trump supporter, whaaaat? Let the games begin!

Blogger pyrrhus March 08, 2016 12:07 PM  

Trump wins Michigan and Florida, doesn't need Ohio, though it would be very nice....

OpenID b1bae96e-6447-11e3-b6bb-000f20980440 March 08, 2016 12:11 PM  

Being a committee member and a supporter are two different things. You would need to know what she voted for/against or advocated for/against. And then of course why she quit or even joined in the first place.

Questions need to be answered though.

And I would have thought the Canadians had more sense than to ever go along with something that made them subservient to the US.

---

He may not need more than 30%, but momentum matters. A lot of people just like voting for winners.

Also apparently the Ohio ballot is complicated

Anonymous TS March 08, 2016 12:12 PM  

"Inquiring minds would like to know. You would think that a CFR/Goldman wife would be a bit of a dealbreaker, but Trump Derangement Syndrome is something to behold."

He's wooed over alot of churchians that and they're just ignorant.

OpenID dc123884-8321-11e5-a9c5-a3b429e4d26a March 08, 2016 12:13 PM  

Oh, sweet sassafras was that video awesome. Needed a good laugh this morning. Thanks.

Anonymous Cheddarman March 08, 2016 12:14 PM  

Lots of pissed off whites in ohio who had their jobs shipped overseas.
I predict a trump victory in ohio.

Anonymous …train... March 08, 2016 12:15 PM  

The Cruz train is fine.

Anonymous VFM #6306 March 08, 2016 12:15 PM  

The train is fine, Nate.

Anonymous VFM #6306 March 08, 2016 12:17 PM  

Damn fine train. Making a perfectly vile faceless minion look autistic like that.

Anonymous JAG March 08, 2016 12:18 PM  

Yet another "Trump has peaked" claim. They will keep saying it as Trump is sworn in as POTUS next January.

Anonymous A Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents March 08, 2016 12:18 PM  

Louise Mensch of Manhattan, NY makes predictions about flyover country? Issues instructions to flyover country voters? Seriously?

The jokes almost write themselves.

Anonymous Jack Amok March 08, 2016 12:20 PM  

Kasich?

Kasich?

Who's the next Great GOPe Hope, the Riverside County Dog Catcher?

Anonymous JAG March 08, 2016 12:21 PM  

From what I've been reading the next Great GOPe Hope is Hillary Clinton.

Anonymous VFM #6306 March 08, 2016 12:23 PM  

NY Times #1 Bestseller: Between Hope and Hillary: The GOPe Gropes

Blogger Conan the Cimmerian March 08, 2016 12:25 PM  

@4

Tim Remington, a popular leader of the community’s religious right, was shot six times Sunday afternoon by a suspect authorities identified as a 30-year-old former Marine, Kyle Andrew Odom of Coeur d’Alene.

A Marine misses six times at close range? A Marine?

According to Odom’s Facebook and LinkedIn pages, he served in the Marine Corps from 2006-10, partly as a flight equipment technician at Camp Pendleton, reaching the grade of corporal, and earned an Iraq Campaign Medal. He graduated magna cum laude from the University of Idaho in 2014, earning a bachelor of science degree in biochemistry, and volunteered with Meals on Wheels and Habitat for Humanity.

Blogger pyrrhus March 08, 2016 12:26 PM  

Yes, all you Cruz supporters, the candidate is dead.....err fine!

Anonymous Brick Hardslab March 08, 2016 12:34 PM  

Coeur d’Alene has become liberal paradise. When I was a kid Coeur d’Alene was barely a place to stop. Now it's San Fran north.

I blame too many video games and not enough trapping fishing and hunting as a child. Maybe his father was disengaged and didn't teach him to shoot. That's the tragedy of American youth. Not enough plinking as a kid.

Anonymous Grime Knight March 08, 2016 12:36 PM  

Q: How do we stop Trump?!!

A: Make sure the cashier is dead

Anonymous Brick Hardslab March 08, 2016 12:39 PM  

Funniest thing I've seen in a week.

Anonymous Ezekiel Casandros March 08, 2016 12:43 PM  

American: Tell me about this "ethnic food."
European: Well, they bring their own culture with them, so they set up stalls to sell food on the streets.
American: And it's food you couldn't get before.
European: They have a very different culture. Their treatment of women...
American: Kebabs... Falafel... Hummus...
European: I understand it makes a lot of people uncomfortable, but I'm hoping we can get them out of here so my family will be safe...
American: Why do you want them out of here?
European: ... For my family.
American: Can your family make ethnic food?
European: What?
American: I want to have refugees.
European: No you don't.
American: I want to have refugees.
European: No you don't. You see, it takes its toll on you. You have rape mobs at the festivals, your daughters have to cover themselves...
American: Yes. Yes. How do I get refugees to live here? I want to have refugees here NOW.
European: I don't think you understand! They come from a scary place. Muslim-on-kafir rape isn't punishable by law, they martyr Christians...
American: Muslims can rape whoever they want, Christians are martyred...
European: It's a scary place. It's rough.
American: Make sure the Christians are dead.

Blogger Ron Winkleheimer March 08, 2016 12:43 PM  

Lots of pissed off whites in ohio who had their jobs shipped overseas.


NCR (a company founded in 1884 in Dayton, Oh) started moving its assembly plants overseas in the 1970s.

Here is a picture of what the plant used to look like.

http://i.ebayimg.com/images/i/201143792806-0-1/s-l1000.jpg

That's all just empty fields now. At least it was the last time I was in Dayton.

The city's economy still hasn't recovered.

It also had several car assembly plants that now lay idle.

Blogger Nate March 08, 2016 12:45 PM  

"Lots of pissed off whites in ohio who had their jobs shipped overseas.
I predict a trump victory in ohio. "

over seas? Shit you should see how many were shipped to Kentucky.

Anonymous BGKB March 08, 2016 12:45 PM  

Who's the next Great GOPe Hope, the Riverside County Dog Catcher?

He has problems with breed profiling. His pens are full of pit bulls and he pulled over the Taco Bell Chihuahua

Blogger tz March 08, 2016 12:48 PM  

Colored people.
Supreme Dark Lord ‏@voxday 4h4 hours ago
@LouiseMensch Well, that's an interesting prediction, to be sure. But color me skeptical.

Trump doesn't need Michigan, but if he takes lots of delegates (50% makes Winner Takes All) it moves the GOPoomsday clock forward just that much more.
@3
You would think that a CFR/Goldman wife would be a bit of a dealbreaker, but Trump Derangement Syndrome is something to behold.
Cruz is an evil genius so his bots are harder to deprogram.
@20
I didn't know Billy Jeff was part of the GOPe.

Kasich needs to do well in Michigan or there will be more problems in Ohio, but both he and Rubio have a problem in that they can't win, they can only go for brokered. The wild-card is the Reagan Democrats. They show up (and there are lots of indications they are), Trump is over the top. I'm guessing Idaho for Cruz as they tend to be evangelical enough and Trump hasn't been as anti-DC to pull the "burn it to the ground" vote. We'll also have to see Mississippi.

I don't think he will have any trouble getting enough delegates. But it is more important for Cruz to keep up the pace - he's the last hope.

Rubio is indebted to Puerto Rico for the small infusion of delegates.

Blogger LES March 08, 2016 12:48 PM  

"He graduated magna cum laude from the University of Idaho in 2014, earning a bachelor of science degree in biochemistry,"

Probably a Darwinist who did like the pastor teaching Intelligent Design.

Blogger LES March 08, 2016 12:51 PM  

Probably a Darwinist who did NOT like the pastor teaching Intelligent Design.

Blogger Gaiseric March 08, 2016 12:54 PM  

As an aside, as predicted: http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/03/08/poll-mitt-romney-helped-donald-trump-more-voters-now-more-likely-to-support-the-billionaire/

Blogger Nate March 08, 2016 12:54 PM  

I think Trump wins Ohio and Florida... but I think Trump's call to have K and the Rube drop out is strategically terrible. Rubio's support is primary anti-trump and will go to Cruz. making Cruz a much more difficult challenge.

I don't think its debatable that Cruz is significantly smarter than Trump. and since Cruz also wants Rubio and K out... this should give Trump pause.

Blogger rho March 08, 2016 12:58 PM  

Kasich?

Who's the next Great GOPe Hope, the Riverside County Dog Catcher?


Saw a Kasich sign in my neighborhood starting last week. Local polling place has a smattering of Trump signs, and nothing else, as of 7AM this morning.

Based on the rigorously scientific "Enthusiastic Enough To Put Up Signs Along My Commute Path" metric, MS will go 95%/5% Trump/Kasich, and 50%/50% Clinton/Willie L. Wilson.

Blogger S1AL March 08, 2016 12:59 PM  

One v one is great for Cruz. Worst case scenario he loses, but at 45 he's established as the libertarian/religious right favorite.

Anonymous The Grand Old Foam Party March 08, 2016 1:03 PM  


Rubio is indebted to Puerto Rico for the small infusion of delegates.


Yes! Then on to the Northern Marians, next Guam! Momentum is building!

Anonymous Jim Scrummy March 08, 2016 1:08 PM  

Classic! Don't forget: "The train is fine..."

Thanks for the laugh!

Anonymous 11B March 08, 2016 1:10 PM  

Louise is evidently not my kind of mensch.

OpenID sigbouncer March 08, 2016 1:20 PM  

Ted Cruz "open border to Syrian refugees" just one year ago.

http://www.cruz.senate.gov/?p=video&id=943

Cruz was the same GW Bush domestic policy writer which saw 10.5 million immigrants come into the country. Despite creating just 1/3 the amount of jobs during the same time period.

Cruz is putting the (Bush) band back together.

https://www.tedcruz.org/news/ted-cruz-announces-addition-of-former-jeb-bush-finance-team-members/

A vote for Cruz is a vote for the Bush establishment. Been there done that twice now already and look where it got us.

Don't be fooled by the Cruz ruse. Vote TRUMP!

Anonymous Uncle Leo March 08, 2016 1:24 PM  

Louise is evidently not my kind of mensch.

Geeze, Louise, whaddya mean by that, huh?

This is anti-Semitic!

Blogger praetorian March 08, 2016 1:27 PM  

I think Trump wins Ohio and Florida

/ applies sugar to diamond hard tits /

Blogger Were-Puppy March 08, 2016 1:27 PM  

The semantics are fine

Anonymous Quartermaster March 08, 2016 1:27 PM  

I used to live in Ohio and the Kasich I remember was an idiot. He managed to get elected to the state house, but from what I've been hearing, he couldn't re-elected by making the entire state populations multi-millionaires. So, I doubt he will do well in the primary.

Rubio is headed in the same direction. I don't see him lasting to the convention.

Blogger Scott6584 March 08, 2016 1:28 PM  

I have declared myself several times in Vox Popoli threads as an unashamed Cruz supporter. But I have also not attacked Trump supporters because I both understand and agree with their frustration at GOPe leaders. On the other hand, I am 100% against both Kasich and Rubio, and if either get the nomination, I won't vote for them.

Having said that, I have a question for Trump supporters: If Trump genuinely loses the battle for the GOP nomination, what are the options?

In Kansas, Cruz got nearly all the late deciders, and in Louisiana, Trump was leading in the early voting, but actually lost the popular vote on election day - still squeaking out a small victory due to the early voters. It is being reported today that Rubio is leading by a margin of 48% to 23% in the early voting totals in Florida. And Kasich is tightening up the race in Ohio.

It appears to me that Trump did real damage to himself in last week's debate, appearing to flip-flop on the immigration issue, and then declaring that the military would obey unlawful commands. Regardless of whether you personally agree that those statements SHOULD have damaged Trump, it appears they have - even when Trump quickly walked back both of those statements. In essence, those were unforced errors by Trump, which appears to have undermined his strength in the polls.

So, what if we get to the Convention, and Trump has 900 delegates, Cruz has 900 delegates, and the combination of Rubio/Kasich have 750 delegates? Then, it will turn out to be a brokered convention, and although Trump can claim the majority of delegates, it can also be genuinely argued that he won only 500 of the last 1650 delegates, which is only about 30%, while Cruz can claim about 35%, and Rubio/Kasich can claim the same.

What is the solution? I'm sure Trump will NOT accept a VP role, and he will have only about 36% of the overall delegate count.

I'm not talking about the GOPe stealing the election from Trump. I'm talking about Trump torpedoing his own campaign, which turns off voters. The reason I say this is because I think the only one that can stop Trump is Trump himself, and a few more instances of flip-flopping on immigration, and declaring himself able to "order" the military to violate laws may just undo all the positive things he's brought to the campaign.

So, if Trump self-destructs, where do you guys go?

Anonymous Mike March 08, 2016 1:28 PM  

Rubio and Kasich supporters need to vote strategically? In this case, that can only mean Cruz because Cruz is the only candidate who has a chance of stopping Trump. Though that does presume that Rubio has any supporters left in Florida.

Anonymous Mike March 08, 2016 1:33 PM  

#45,

Fellow Cruz supporter as well...

The real issue is whether or not Trump will "feel slighted" under such a situation and run third party. I think a lot of his supporters will consider supporting him if he does. Then we will have four years of Hillary Clinton and will get everything people disliked about Cruz and Trump with not even a single upside.

Blogger Unknown March 08, 2016 1:35 PM  

I found an interesting take on the Trump phenomenon: http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2016/02/trumps-insurgency-explained.html

His thesis is that Trump is a single-issue candidate, and the issue is: ``I'm one of you, not one of them.'' The more the usual suspects attack Trump, therefore, the more voters he attracts, because by now, we all hate the usual suspects.

Anonymous Big Bill March 08, 2016 1:36 PM  

So, if Trump self-destructs, where do you guys go?

Wherever I can cause the greatest damage to the party system and the political elite.

Wherever my vote can most delegitimize the "democratic" system.

Any ideas?

Anonymous Til March 08, 2016 1:37 PM  

Cruz is not smarter than Trump. He is just more careful with words and tends to plan rather than be spontaneous.

You fellows really should study Briggs-Meyers personality traits. It's easily the most accurate and valuable metric for understanding people I have ever seen.

For example, it explains why people are wrong about Trump being a loose cannon. Percieving types like him are loose with words because they think out loud, but tend to be hesitant to make decisions quickly, preferring to gather more information. However, in an emergency, they can make very quick and effective decisions. This tendency to "wait and see" rather than rush to judgment is a natural counter to their loose speech.

Spontaneous people come across as unpredictable and loose. They really aren't. They actually tend to have highly regimented minds. They place value in inner order, not outer order. Hence Trump's rambling, hypnotising speeches.

Source: ENTP

OpenID sigbouncer March 08, 2016 1:40 PM  

"Having said that, I have a question for Trump supporters: If Trump genuinely loses the battle for the GOP nomination, what are the options?"

I'm writing Trump in if he isn't on the ballot. Done the same in the past for Ron Paul, Nader and Buchanan. I'm not one to flip my vote once the decision has been made. That's disingenuous.

It's either an anti establishment candidate pushing for changes or nothing for my money.

Blogger Scott6584 March 08, 2016 1:42 PM  

According to Cruz's wife, he is a natural introvert, which probably explains why he comes off on TV as less engaging than Trump or Rubio, who are both extroverts.

Cruz is definitely very smart, but Trump is also a pretty smart dude. Intelligence is highly overrated. I have a barely in the genius range IQ (146), and can tell you from personal experience that high IQ can be a real handicap in many cases. The most successful people tend to be in the 120 - 130 IQ range, which is below genius level. I have no idea where Cruz or Trump range, but there is a limit to the advantages that IQ provides. Trust me. I know.

Anonymous Til March 08, 2016 1:43 PM  

Lyin' Ted Cruz Update:

https://mobile.twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/707256770960330752

RMoney has graciously offered to help Mr. Cruz. I suppose Romney has finally seen the anti-establishment light, CruzMissiles!

Blogger Were-Puppy March 08, 2016 1:44 PM  

@45 Scott6584

So, if Trump self-destructs, where do you guys go?
---

I'm not going anywhere. I will stay in the South.

OpenID denektenorsk March 08, 2016 1:50 PM  

And I would have thought the Canadians had more sense than to ever go along with something that made them subservient to the US.

I'm Canadian, I can read, and I know that NAFTA has not been kind to us. The rest of the West takes their lead from the US (whether they admit it or not) because Pax Americana allows us to defund our militaries and have generous social entitlements. Uncle Sam funds the military and gets his hands dirty on our behalf while "we" collectively look in smug disapprovement. If it was not for the US most of Europe would have been gobbled up by the Soviets. Ungrateful lot aren't they?

For the longest time all 3 Federal parties were against NAFTA until Brian Mulrooney saw supporting it as a path to electoral victory. Never trust an Irishman raised by Frenchmen ;)

Our provincial governments are routinely sued over permit decisions that don't go in favour of the foreign (US) company and there was the ongoing spat over softwood lumber in BC. The US was taken to the tribunal over the Softwood Lumber dispute multiple times and each and every time it was found in violation of NAFTA and they ruled in favour of Canada. The US still refused to abide by the ruling. Finally the Canadians rolled over and did a deal to get some exports rolling that is set to expire this year.

Our idiotic supply side farm management is constantly being railed against but that's the right type of protectionism in that it gouges me, the Canadian consumer. So no, the US does not get to export dairy products freely here, you get a piece of the quota. After all, we don't want our grocery bills to be too cheap, do we?

Most of the stuff we buy is imported from Asia and even when our dollar is at par we still pay X% more than our US compatriots do (e.g. computer components). If you try to get clever and import it from a retailer in the US you pay duty on it as it wasn't made in the US. NAFTA has not benefited the Canadian consumer. Our higher paid manufacturing jobs have either gone to cheaper US states under NAFTA (or made the jump over the pond to China, Taiwan or Japan) due to labour cost savings. Now they are also slowly trickling car manufacturing jobs to Mexico (from both the US and Canada).

It's why they Mexicans are not terribly happy about the TPP and are trying to get clauses for X% of car to be made here so they don't loose the jobs they just stole.

Free trade indeed. Expect more of that under TPP where Asian workers are paid less than 10% of their NA counterparts.

The TPP is why I DID NOT vote Conservative in the last election despite lining up with them on most social issues.

If you are a greenie lets not even start the discussion on the carbon cost of manufacturing stuff in an unregulated and lieing jurisdiction like China plus the carbon impact of literally shipping stuff half way across the world. If you buy into Climate Change would it not be better to make it here where we have more environmental regulation and where it is closer to market? Nah, it's fine, we'll just displace our carbon footprint onto China and then try to tax the rest of it out of existence. The greenies don't look like they really want to solve the problem they are constantly screaming about.

If you think American politicans are spineless it's only because you haven't met enough Canadian ones yet.

@SDL
I LOLed at the video. My dog gave me that WTF are you laughing at look.

Blogger SciVo March 08, 2016 1:58 PM  

The main thing I'm watching tonight is to see if Trump does close to his polling in Michigan and Mississippi. That will show that there has been no loss of support, just a spate of closed contests, where he tends to underperform expectations (especially closed caucuses).

Hawaii won't make any difference for anyone, but I'm going to make a bold WAG and call the Aloha state for Kasich. Idaho will only be interesting as the exit polls may give us the first real indication of how Mormons will actually vote on a secret ballot; but if my WAG is correct, it could give Trump another state delegate majority (that he doesn't really need at this point).

Blogger praetorian March 08, 2016 1:58 PM  

So, if Trump self-destructs, where do you guys go?

Where I always go after Lent: back to the chans.

At this point, Trump has achieved critical mindshare mass and, if he gets knocked out in a brokered convention or whatever it will shatter the GOP. It's a no-lose situation for us.

The keks will flow.

OpenID sigbouncer March 08, 2016 2:01 PM  

"The real issue is whether or not Trump will "feel slighted" under such a situation and run third party."

Trump will end up running as an Indy before this is over with.

http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/Trump-Threatens-Independent-Run-GOP-Voters/2016/03/03/id/717230/

Blogger Scott6584 March 08, 2016 2:02 PM  

SigBouncer,

You are one of the more vociferous supporters of Trump on this board, and I have hesitated to engage you because I saw no value in antagonizing you, and we simply disagree about who is the best outsider candidate. I can respect the idea of you writing in Trump's name on your November ballot.

But I have to ask a serious question: If Trump starts disavowing most of the things that enamored you to him in the first place - especially if he continues down the path of becoming pro-immigration, at what point do you change your mind on him? Is there anything Trump can do to make you believe he was scamming you previously? I'm not asking you to support a different candidate because you've made clear your disdain for each of them. But is it possible for Trump to lose your support by virtue of himself and him changing his positions?

Blogger The Messenjah March 08, 2016 2:04 PM  

Get a load of this "GOP Leaders, Tech Execs Plot Against Trump At Secret NeoCon Island Meeting"

The Creature from Sea Island

Blogger Gaiseric March 08, 2016 2:04 PM  

So, if Trump self-destructs, where do you guys go?

I'm not nearly as anti-Cruz as the prevailing opinion here. If Cruz legitimately beats Trump, I'll vote for him. I question if he has the force of personality to make any significant changes in the direction of the country, but at least he'll buy us a few years before it goes significantly south. Most likely.

He has been consistently anti-Establishment, and I think a lot of the mental gymnastics that try to construe him as doing that for show are just that: mental gymnastics.

I don't trust his apparently quite recent conversion to immigration, and I don't like his ties to Goldman-Sachs or his warmongering neocon foreign policy, but he's really no worse than Trump in either of those regards either, as scads of anti-Trump pro-Cruzers have been telling us for months.

Blogger Gaiseric March 08, 2016 2:07 PM  

Scott6584 wrote:Cruz is definitely very smart, but Trump is also a pretty smart dude. Intelligence is highly overrated. I have a barely in the genius range IQ (146), and can tell you from personal experience that high IQ can be a real handicap in many cases. The most successful people tend to be in the 120 - 130 IQ range, which is below genius level. I have no idea where Cruz or Trump range, but there is a limit to the advantages that IQ provides. Trust me. I know.
Same here; it's not smart enough to make it likely that you'll come up with anything really intellectually significant, but it is smart enough that you're unlikely to meet people most days that can carry an interesting conversation about topics that you are really interested in. Whether or not it's a benefit to your quality of life or not is still TBD, in my experience.

OpenID sigbouncer March 08, 2016 2:07 PM  

@59

I don't see Trump changing on his positions.

Trump has 3 main issues that I want to see changed in America:

Immigration, TPP and the current politically correct culture. Bonus to Trump for wanting to co-exist/potentially ally with Russian in keeping us out of WWIII.

There isn't another candidate available who will come close to making the change Trump will with respects to these issues.

Anonymous TS March 08, 2016 2:09 PM  

"Cruz is not smarter than Trump. He is just more careful with words and tends to plan rather than be spontaneous."

He's a lawyer and plays the game that way.

Anonymous BGKB March 08, 2016 2:10 PM  

If Trump genuinely loses the battle for the GOP nomination, what are the options?...So, if Trump self-destructs, where do you guys go

Prepare for Nigapocalypse, already fled die verse city for Whitopia

Blogger Scott6584 March 08, 2016 2:11 PM  

If Trump runs as an independent, would there be a real chance of no one getting a majority of the Electoral College votes?

I've been reading about the Founders, and it appears that they did not expect a Two-Party system to arise, and in fact, expected most Presidential Elections would be decided in the House of Representatives. It appears they believed that multiple candidates would normally split the vote, and the mechanism they put in place for the President to be selected by the House of Representatives would be the normal process. That is why it was such BS when they called the Bush/Gore race a "Constitutional Crisis" and why the Supreme Court had no business getting involved in that dispute other than telling the Florida courts that they have no jurisdiction over elections.

If the decision gets thrown into the House, it would be the third time that the House selected the winner, John Quincy Adams and Rutherford B. Hayes being the two previous times.

Blogger Scott6584 March 08, 2016 2:13 PM  

Frankly, as to an independent Trump bid for Presidency: I think he should go further and try to establish a legitimate 3rd party. But I wonder if that would fit his ego...

Anonymous kfg March 08, 2016 2:14 PM  

Dayton was also the home to Huffy (nee Huffman) Bicycles, third largest in the country.

Blogger RC March 08, 2016 2:14 PM  

"I have no idea where Cruz or Trump range, but there is a limit to the advantages that IQ provides. Trust me. I know." Scott

Start drinking fluoride daily. You'll lose a standard deviation in no time and you can enter paradise.

Blogger Rabbi B March 08, 2016 2:17 PM  

@58 sigbouncer

Trump will end up running as an Indy before this is over with.

That's not what he indicated at the last debate.

When the moderators asked all of the candidates whether or not they would support the Republican nominee (especially if that nominee was Trump), Trump indicated that he would support the nominee, that no one can win unless they run as part of the Republican party, and that he would therefore not seek an independent run.

Blogger Scott6584 March 08, 2016 2:18 PM  

@60.

If you know about it, is it really "secret?"

Me thinks you are over-dramatizing it. I don't think anyone is surprised that those who oppose Trump would meet and try to strategize how to win. That's not a conspiracty. That's just normal politics.

I'm sure Trump meets with his campaign and other to "strategize" how to beat Cruz, Rubio and Kasich. Is it a consipiracy? oooga boogah...

Blogger Scott6584 March 08, 2016 2:20 PM  

@70.

My biggest issue with Trump is that I think ALL of his promises have expiration dates. So, I would be shocked if Trump doesn't launch an independent campaign if he loses. Genuinely shocked.

Blogger Nate March 08, 2016 2:21 PM  

"Cruz is not smarter than Trump. He is just more careful with words and tends to plan rather than be spontaneous. "

This is like a Michael Jordan fan asserting that Jordan is taller than sam bowie.

Jordan was 10X the player. But he was not in any way shape or form taller.

If you genuinely think Trump is as smart as Ted... you're simply blind by your own preferences. Trump isn't within a standard deviation of Ted. Ted, in terms of IQ, is way up there.

That doesn't make him a good politician. It doesn't make him a good leader or a good choice for President.

It is never the less a fact.

Blogger Nate March 08, 2016 2:24 PM  

"You fellows really should study Briggs-Meyers personality traits. It's easily the most accurate and valuable metric for understanding people I have ever seen. "

You know you're absolutely right. No one has ever brought up the brigg-meyers stuff to my knowledge here and we've never really discussed it.

Thanks for this.

Blogger praetorian March 08, 2016 2:26 PM  

Speaking of delegitimizing the political system...

the mask slips off Howard Dean.

FEEL THE BERN.

Blogger praetorian March 08, 2016 2:26 PM  

Thanks for this.

So brave.

OpenID sigbouncer March 08, 2016 2:26 PM  

"That's not what he indicated at the last debate."

You mean the last debacle.

What we saw there was a 69 year old man relatively new to this game. Who had constant attacks coming at him from all angles. Getting worn down by them combined with the political process of campaigning.

Trump did the intelligent thing. Which was to play nice until he was able to get with his people to reassess the situation. Trump did that and you can see what he is saying now.

http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/Trump-Threatens-Independent-Run-GOP-Voters/2016/03/03/id/717230/



Anonymous Bobby Farr March 08, 2016 2:29 PM  

"Having said that, I have a question for Trump supporters: If Trump genuinely loses the battle for the GOP nomination, what are the options?"

I will do what I'd planned on doing originally - not vote. I only changed this plan because of the huge surprise of having the option to vote for a candidate who had made reduced immigration the central issue of his campaign.

Blogger Rabbi B March 08, 2016 2:31 PM  

@77 sigbouncer

C'mon now, sigbouncer, Trump performed just fine and the question came at the end of the debate long after the dust had settled. He was also the last one to answer the question after everyone else did.

He clearly stated his position and just as clearly indicated he would not run independently if he weren't the nominee.

Whether he has now changed that position, does not negate what he said, clearly and calmly enough that a child could follow.

Anonymous A Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents March 08, 2016 2:34 PM  


That's not what he indicated at the last debate.


The last what? The last loaded press conference, right?

Look, I have done debate. Lincoln-Douglas did debate. There's no way any of these semi-staged events, with "gotcha" questions asked by hostile infotainment-bubbleheads can be called a "debate".

Suppose you're walking down a side street at night, two guys step out of an alley with knives, a man in a business suit comes up behind you with a gun and suggests, "Better give it up, dude" - is this a "debate"? Or is it a mugging by a gang?

"Debate"…meh. I despise those dog and pony shows.

Blogger Rabbi B March 08, 2016 2:35 PM  

"Trump pledges allegiance to GOP, rules out independent bid"

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/15/politics/donald-trump-independent-bid-gop/

Blogger Cinco March 08, 2016 2:36 PM  

If you genuinely think Trump is as smart as Ted... you're simply blind by your own preferences. Trump isn't within a standard deviation of Ted. Ted, in terms of IQ, is way up there.

Do we have a valid source for their respective IQ's, or are we just speculating? Because on the surface it would occur to me that Trump is probably much more intelligent than Cruz. According to stats I just found, 45% of billionaires rank in the top 1% of intelligence; while, only 41% of senators rank in the top 1% of intelligence. So, without individual stats, the odds are with the Donald.

OpenID sigbouncer March 08, 2016 2:37 PM  

"Whether he has now changed that position, does not negate what he said, clearly and calmly enough that a child could follow."

Show me where I've disputed this anywhere here.

I simply made an observation as to why he handled it the way he did at the debate.

Blogger Sam Lively March 08, 2016 2:37 PM  

@34

I'd be happy with Trump vs. Cruz 1-on-1. Could bring some much needed focus to Trump's campaign.

And I don't think it's as bad a strategic move as you'd think. Rubio's support is largely Establishment driven. If it shifts en masse to Cruz, Cruz then becomes vulnerable to the guilt by association that has helped to crush Jeb and now Rubio.

Further, Cruz has fared well against Donald so far, but he does have a number of weak spots that a more focused and prepared Donald could exploit. I don't think Lyin' Ted has been all that effective because the counter-attacks against Trump are so obvious.

But Creepy or Weirdo Ted could be very powerful. I think the consensus here is that Ted is at least half Sigma, but I detect some distinct Omega qualities around the intellectual self-confidence.

Start with his tenure at Harvard. Consider this blurb from a Globe profile:

'As they were entering their second year in law school, Melissa Hart agreed to give Cruz a ride from New York, where Cruz was at the end of the summer, back to Cambridge. She didn’t know him well, but he sought her out after she had been given a prestigious award for first-year students.

“We hadn’t left Manhattan before he asked my IQ,” Hart said. “When I told him I didn’t know, he asked, ‘Well, what’s your SAT score? That’s closely coordinated with your IQ.’ ”

“It went from, ‘Nice guy,’ ” she said, “to ‘uh-oh.’”'

Isn't an uh-oh from a romantic target the ultimate Omega tell?

We move from there to his Bush 2000 campaign role, where by most accounts he was loathed by everyone as an insanely ambitious tool with no understanding of the social decorum involved in career laddering.

There was also the stories from high school. He was a theater geek who loved to play villains.

From there we move to his courtship of Heidi (as with Hart, apparently targeted by Cruz for her potential as a political asset) which she described as being like a job interview. Four years after marrying him she was sitting next to a freeway on ramp with her head in her hands.

In interviews, she describes him like a business partner.

Add to that the intense personal distaste for Cruz so many of his colleagues share, the abundance of loner/weirdo Ted Cruz gifs (people ignoring his attempts to shake hands, his daughter recoiling from his attempt to kiss her, eating that bizarre thing on his lips in the debate) and the social awkwardness/backwardness of some of his biggest supporters (Beck, Erick Erickson, Steve Deace - if you are conservative pundit who is chubby and a little awkward, chances are you are a big Cruz backer) and I think there is plenty of potential for a social status attack on Cruz. As in, do you really think a creepy weirdo like Cruz will be able to beat Hillary?



Blogger Rabbi B March 08, 2016 2:41 PM  

@83 sigbouncer

"Show me where I've disputed this anywhere here."

@77

What we saw there was a 69 year old man relatively new to this game. Who had constant attacks coming at him from all angles. Getting worn down by them combined with the political process of campaigning.

Trump did the intelligent thing. Which was to play nice until he was able to get with his people to reassess the situation. Trump did that and you can see what he is saying now.


Sounded like you were excusing Trump's answer, an answer which I used to challenge an assertion you had made earlier:

@58 sigbouncer

Trump will end up running as an Indy before this is over with.

Blogger Rabbi B March 08, 2016 2:43 PM  

I don't believe he will run as an independent, but support the GOP nominee, just like he said he would. Why would he lie?

Blogger S1AL March 08, 2016 2:44 PM  

As if we needed any more evidence he's a sigma... And is that a profile or a hit piece?

Anonymous Ezekiel Cassandros March 08, 2016 2:45 PM  

@Rabbi B
Whether or not he would run independent, is something Trump has flip-flopped on. He signed an agreement, then he said it was contingent on the GOP playing fair, then he said "no exceptions..."

The more recent link posted upthread by sigbouncer suggests that he may consider the agreement null and void since some of the GOP who signed the same agreement, are publicly reneging.

Blogger Gaiseric March 08, 2016 2:45 PM  

If Trump runs as an independent, I hope he calls his new party the National Front Disco.

OpenID 6eb4663a-f39a-11e3-aed0-d7d38ec8d6cd March 08, 2016 2:45 PM  

@56 I'm planning on attending the Hawaii caucus tonight here on Maui. If there's any interest, I can report back tomorrow regaring my experience. In 2012, Ron Paul won Big Island, and nearly beat Romney on Maui and Kauai. The party political machine is much more active on Oahu, and Romney won there big and thus he took the state. It's a closed primary, so I am not relishing registering as a Republican, but I'll give them a fake email, and throw their snail mail beg-quests in the bin.

Blogger Nate March 08, 2016 2:47 PM  

"The last what? The last loaded press conference, right? "

on this we agree. There hasn't been an actual debate this entire cycle. All there has been is a series of hostile group press conferences.

Blogger Nate March 08, 2016 2:48 PM  

"Do we have a valid source for their respective IQ's, or are we just speculating? Because on the surface it would occur to me that Trump is probably much more intelligent than Cruz."

do you need a valid source to tell the difference between 7'1 and 6'6 when they are standing right beside each other?

OpenID sigbouncer March 08, 2016 2:48 PM  

"There was also the stories from high school. He was a theater geek who loved to play villains."

His college roommate, Craig Mazin a successful filmmaker, says Cruz never had a date in all their college time together. And that the girls used to come and tell Mazin and his friends to keep Ted out of their hallways.

Blogger Rabbi B March 08, 2016 2:49 PM  

@88 Ezekiel Cassandros

Yeah, well, I am still naive enough to believe that a man's word is his bond.

Anonymous Ezekiel Cassandros March 08, 2016 2:53 PM  

@Rabbi B
Dammit, I'll get the hang of this "subtleties of rhetorical discourse" thing one of these days.

OpenID sigbouncer March 08, 2016 2:54 PM  

"an answer which I used to challenge an assertion you had made earlier:

@58 sigbouncer

Trump will end up running as an Indy before this is over with."

I predicted Trump would run as an Indy a week ago here. Now as of 4-5 days ago, Trump is saying that is an option. Which really isn't anything that he hasn't maintained throughout this entire election. As Trump has continually said "as long as the Party treats him right" with respects to his GOP run.

Blogger Jeffrey Quick March 08, 2016 2:55 PM  

Who is this Mensch?
I've got a bet going wth the wife. I think K-suck will do 20% max in OH (and that's incredibly generous), she thinks 60%. Easiest $10 I will ever make. The only K-suck supporter I know got a job from him on the turnpike commission (at least she's an honest politician; she stays bought).In OH, your party registration is whatever ballot you asked for last election, so we could have a bunch of blue-collar Dems pulling things toward Trump. I don't know if that means they'll go for incumbents downticket or not. We have a number of challenged offices downticket (John Boehner!!) and ALL of the State Central Committee. I've seen virtually nothing on whatever effect Trumpets have had on downticket races. It matters.

Blogger Nate March 08, 2016 2:56 PM  

"According to stats I just found, 45% of billionaires rank in the top 1% of intelligence;"

also... son... both of these men are way over the top 1%.

Blogger Rabbi B March 08, 2016 2:58 PM  

@96 sigbouncer

I guess that kind of prediction is not difficult if he can't be trusted to say what he means and mean what he says.

He seemed pretty clear on the issue last week. That's OK. The train is still fine.

Blogger Nate March 08, 2016 3:03 PM  

Can we drop this independant run crap?

Trump can't run independent. He simply can't.

He can't even get on the ballot in Texas at this point. Its to late.

Look at this rule for example:

This paperwork must include signatures of voters who have not participated in the primary election or the runoff primary election of a party that has nominated, at either election, a candidate for the office the petitioning candidate seeks

In other words... no one who voted for Trump in the Texas primary can be used as a signer in his independant run. In fact no one that voted in the primary at all.

So yeah.

Good luck with that.

Blogger S1AL March 08, 2016 3:03 PM  

"Also... son... both of these men are way over the top 1%."

They just don't teach enough statistics these days.

Anonymous Lightbetrayed March 08, 2016 3:07 PM  

Voted in Michigan, Grand Rapids area. 476th at 3pm. They only normally get 500 voters for a real election. Running about 2 to 1 republican ballots vs democratic ballots.

Blogger Matamoros March 08, 2016 3:09 PM  

Vote for the illegal alien - Ted Cruz - Ted Cruz: Illegal Alien? NO PAPERS (Canada Born - Entered Illegally in 1974)?

https://youtu.be/AHWtCbvEptw

OpenID sigbouncer March 08, 2016 3:12 PM  

"@96 sigbouncer

I guess that kind of prediction is not difficult if he can't be trusted to say what he means and mean what he says."

Really? These guys are politicians. They all lie.

At least Trump told the GOP to their face in the beginning that if they screw around with him. He would consider a 3rd party run.

I have no problems with Trump making that statement at the time. Then reassessing the situation with his team and coming to the conclusion that the GOP is apparently out to screw him from getting the nomination. In fact, I'd be very disappointed if he didn't handle it this way. As it was the intelligent thing to do.

Blogger Marie March 08, 2016 3:13 PM  

"If Trump genuinely loses the battle for the GOP nomination, what are the options?"

Depends on how it all shakes out and how much the GOPe runs their mouth off.

I think Trump is our best chance to beat Hillary or Sanders. I'm not convinced Cruz could beat either of those two and I would rather we didn't risk it.

I will never vote for the GOPe again. If I can't have Trump, my next goal is to make the GOPe politically worthless.

The only thing I won't do to further that goal is vote for Hillary.

Blogger Fifty Seven March 08, 2016 3:14 PM  

"A Marine misses six times at close range? A Marine?

According to Odom’s Facebook and LinkedIn pages, he served in the Marine Corps from 2006-10, partly as a flight equipment technician at Camp Pendleton, reaching the grade of corporal, and earned an Iraq Campaign Medal."

There's your answer-- he was a pogue. I was a Marine, and that "Every Marine is a rifleman" thing is pretty much just talk these days, mostly by pogues who want to sound like they're bad.

They go through an abbreviated combat training course, then do two weeks of field stuff every year, like reservists (which is more than most of the other branches do, but still). The rest of the time they do... Whatever their actual job is. I assume he went after Preacher Man with a pistol? Most basic enlisted guys don't even get trained on those unless it pertains to their job, and when your job is "Flight Equipment Technician", it doesn't.

Blogger Scott6584 March 08, 2016 3:15 PM  

Another Question: Does Cruz prefer Trump over Rubio and/or Kasich.

Case in point: Kasich said last week at CPAC that the convention would be brokered. Cruz outright rejected that, and said the ONLY acceptable way to beat Trump would be by getting more voters.

2nd Case in Point: Cruz, who is a distant 3rd in polls in Florida, nevertheless, Cruz recently opened 10 new offices in Florida. A fierce bevy of attack ads have been focused against Trump in Florida this past week. But the Cruz campaign is running ads attacking...Rubio, not Trump. Things that make you go hmmm...

It appears to me that Cruz's personal distaste for GOPe leadership and their candidates exceed even his desire to win the Republican nomination. As Vox Day showed in a recent post, if Trump wins in Ohio and Florida, the odds against Cruz beating him are astronomical. But it appears to me that Cruz would rather run 2nd place to Trump, than sign on to the "stop Trump" campaign being run by the GOPe.

This makes me believe that if a brokered convention were to happen in July because Trump doesn't make it over the majority line, that the most probable outcome would be a Trump/Cruz ticket, which would destroy the hopes of the GOPe. By targeting Rubio, I think Cruz is telegraphing his willingness to accept the VP nomination from Trump, if he cannot beat him outright.

Anonymous Til March 08, 2016 3:21 PM  

"You know you're absolutely right. No one has ever brought up the brigg-meyers stuff to my knowledge here and we've never really discussed it.' -Nate

I never said that it hasn't been discussed here before, anklebiter. You may want to work on your reading comprehension. I simply saw that a few of you could use some education.

Face it Nate, you're just mad that I don't like Lyin' Ted.

Speaking of Ted, what are your feelings on knowing that he's got the willing help of Mitt Romney?

What are your feelings about the fact that Cruz is playing for a brokered convention, to benefit the establishment?

I note you didn't respond to that post of mine. You'd rather bite ankles. Sad, really. You're a likable guy.

Anonymous BGKB March 08, 2016 3:22 PM  

97. I've got a bet going wth the wife... Easiest $10 I will ever make.

Do you have a job or just get an allowance? Gee who would want marriage after you guys let feminists destroy it?

Rabbi B Yeah, well, I am still naive enough to believe that a man's word is his bond

Proof Rabbi B has never dated a hispanic

Blogger Gaiseric March 08, 2016 3:22 PM  

Scott6584 wrote:This makes me believe that if a brokered convention were to happen in July because Trump doesn't make it over the majority line, that the most probable outcome would be a Trump/Cruz ticket, which would destroy the hopes of the GOPe. By targeting Rubio, I think Cruz is telegraphing his willingness to accept the VP nomination from Trump, if he cannot beat him outright.
And I say again; that's good for both of them. Trump's weaknesses are his conservative bonafides—for voters who care about that kind of thing, general seriousness, and the fact that he scares the willies out of folks who think that unconstitutional lawlessness is a bigger crisis facing our country than immigration and cultural Marxism. Cruz's biggest weaknesses is that he has no force of personality, no charisma, he isn't very likable, and if he were somehow elected, everyone would do their best to ignore and or stymie his efforts. The media wouldn't grant him a platform, and the public would lose interest in anything he said, because he's boring, and wonkish, and can't make people care about whatever it is he's trying to say.

They really do need each other to create a stronger ticket.

OpenID sigbouncer March 08, 2016 3:24 PM  

"Can we drop this independant run crap?

Trump can't run independent. He simply can't.

He can't even get on the ballot in Texas at this point. Its to late."

Why is Texas so important when Trump already lost it to Cruz? And thus would likely lose again to him.

Why would Trump even care if he didn't make the Texas ballot?

You would need to bring more than Texas to the table to show evidence why Trump cannot run as an Indy.


Blogger James Dixon March 08, 2016 3:26 PM  

> I have declared myself several times in Vox Popoli threads as an unashamed Cruz supporter. But I have also not attacked Trump supporters because I both understand and agree with their frustration at GOPe leaders.

Absolutely true, unlike some other Cruz supporters. Oh, hi there Matt, I didn't see you standing there. :)

> So, if Trump self-destructs, where do you guys go?

If either Trump or Cruz wins the nomination I'll vote for him. If anyone else wins I'll vote third party.

> Any ideas?

No idea if he'll be the libertarian candidate or not, but: https://mcafee2016.com/

Anonymous Til March 08, 2016 3:28 PM  

"do you need a valid source to tell the difference between 7'1 and 6'6 when they are standing right beside each other?"

You just prefer careful words and planned speech, Nate. That doesn't equal more intelligence.

For someone like me, I am instinctively more wary of a smooth talker like Cruz, because it's far easier to lie when you're planning what you say. Tangled web we weave, and all that.

It's a LOT harder to lie effectively when you talk like Trump. Trump isn't primarily a talker. He's a man of action. Talk is cheap, Nate. Why would you gauge intelligence solely based upon that?

Blogger Sean March 08, 2016 3:28 PM  

Trump has in the past discussed third party runs. He was set to do it with Jesse Ventura at one point but Ventura left whatever that party was and the whole thing fell apart.

Blogger Sean March 08, 2016 3:29 PM  

Trump has in the past discussed third party runs. He was set to do it with Jesse Ventura at one point but Ventura left whatever that party was and the whole thing fell apart.

Anonymous Andrew E. March 08, 2016 3:29 PM  

This makes me believe that if a brokered convention were to happen in July because Trump doesn't make it over the majority line, that the most probable outcome would be a Trump/Cruz ticket, which would destroy the hopes of the GOPe. By targeting Rubio, I think Cruz is telegraphing his willingness to accept the VP nomination from Trump, if he cannot beat him outright.

If Cruz really loved his country he would realize that his creepiness would hurt a Trump/Cruz ticket and risk losing to Hillary. If Trump ends up needing Cruz's delegates, he should give Trump what he needs in exchange for something other than VP. Cruz is unelectable nationwide.

Anonymous Til March 08, 2016 3:47 PM  

Cruz's creepiness just proves how smart he is, Andrew. The smartest persuaders know that giving off the air of smarm is vital.

Speaking of persuasion, how come a building developer is cleaning Debatin' Lawyerin' Ted's clock in the persuasion department?

Must be because he's dumber.

OpenID sigbouncer March 08, 2016 3:57 PM  

And here come the bankers to support Cruz...

Eric Swerdlin ‏@ericswerdlin 12m12 minutes ago

@CNN @JebBush @tedcruz Of course, Neil Mallon Bush was a director of #Silverado the bank that cost the taxpayers $1.3 billion. #figures

Roger Stone ‏@RogerJStoneJr 21m21 minutes ago

Neil Bush who peddled influence for the Chinese govt for the use of Chinese hookers endorses @tedcruz @BushCrimes

http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/03/bush-family-member-endorses-cruz-220433 …

Blogger Rusty Fife March 08, 2016 3:57 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger S1AL March 08, 2016 3:58 PM  

ITT - people who don't understand the difference between intelligence and charisma.

Blogger Anonymous Robot March 08, 2016 3:59 PM  

I expect Cruz and Trump to sort it out like men, with sabers. Honestly, what kind of gamma hands it back over to the GOPe to decide at this point?

These kind of, ahhh, things.

Blogger Rusty Fife March 08, 2016 4:00 PM  

Scott6584 wrote:So, what if we get to the Convention, and Trump has 900 delegates, Cruz has 900 delegates, and the combination of Rubio/Kasich have 750 delegates? Then, it will turn out to be a brokered convention, and although Trump can claim the majority of delegates, it can also be genuinely argued that he won only 500 of the last 1650 delegates, which is only about 30%, while Cruz can claim about 35%, and Rubio/Kasich can claim the same.

What is the solution? I'm sure Trump will NOT accept a VP role, and he will have only about 36% of the overall delegate count.


I expect Cruz and Trump to sort it out like men, with sabers. Honestly, what kind of gamma hands it back over to the GOPe to decide at this point?

Blogger Sheila4g March 08, 2016 4:02 PM  

@59 Scott 6584: "If Trump starts disavowing most of the things that enamored you to him in the first place - especially if he continues down the path of becoming pro-immigration, at what point do you change your mind on him? . . . But is it possible for Trump to lose your support by virtue of himself and him changing his positions?"

While I recognize Trump as a flawed candidate, I remain a strong supporter because of his nationalism and populism. My one issue is immigration, although I also find his emphasis on "fair trade" appealing and his lack of antagonism against Putin reassuring. If Trump seriously walked back or moderated his position, he would lose my support. If he chose a VP candidate I did not trust on immigration (any of the other candidates), he would lose my support. I'd just return to my "I don't vote anymore" pledge.

Blogger Sheila4g March 08, 2016 4:09 PM  

@68 KFG: "Dayton was also the home to Huffy (nee Huffman) Bicycles, third largest in the country."

I spent one summer during college as a nanny for one of the Huffy Bicycle family's sons. His wife was also from the Dayton area; her family considered her to have married "down." Her family had a summer mansion out in the Hamptons and a beach "cottage" which was the size of a 4-bedroom suburban home. I was taken along to Ohio for one of her sibling's wedding and actually got lost in one of the houses. We're talking genuine green baize doors and handbells to call the servants. In comparison, his parents (Huffy Co.) were warm and friendly and home seemed much more like a large farm. OT but just another curious tidbit from my life.

Anonymous Til March 08, 2016 4:12 PM  

Trump is now on record against LEGAL immigration:

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/03/07/donald-trump-says-massive-legal-migration-eroding-middle-class/

Where the Hell is Ted Cruz on legal immigration?

Yeah, charisma doesn't necessarily mean intelligence. Trump
just fell into 8 billion dollars and dismantling the GOP as an amateur politician. What a dumb guy. He doesn't sound all sophisticated like those geniuses who speak as a job.

Some of you will still be calling him stupid if he wins. That's what tickles me the most.

Blogger Student in Blue March 08, 2016 4:15 PM  

If Cruz really loved his country he would realize that his creepiness would hurt a Trump/Cruz ticket and risk losing to Hillary.

It's not like we never had a VP who was creepy before...

Anonymous Til March 08, 2016 4:16 PM  

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/press-releases/donald-j.-trump-statement-on-immigration

"Yet, Senators Cruz and Rubio have led the charge for even higher immigration rates - a policy supported by only 7 percent of the Republican electorate. When I am President we will listen to the people - not the special interests - and get immigration numbers under control, as the voters have demanded."

Blogger S1AL March 08, 2016 4:16 PM  

TiL - Who said that Trump is stupid?

Blogger Noah B March 08, 2016 4:18 PM  

Yeah, Trump can't win third party at this point. A race with him running third party goes to the House, where Trump loses.

Blogger Noah B March 08, 2016 4:19 PM  

And that's best case, assuming Hillary didn't win outright in that scenario.

Anonymous Ominous Cowherd March 08, 2016 4:38 PM  

When someone is dumber than I am, it's easy to tell, and I can often guess how much dumber. When someone is smarter, it's not so immediately obvious, and it's nearly impossible to make an accurate guess how much smarter.

Given all that, these folks who claim to know that Trump is smarter than Cruz or vice versa must be smarter than both. Or just full of nonsense.

Anonymous Til March 08, 2016 4:47 PM  

@128

You're right. I take that back. Really, I'm mostly thinking of all the cucks who are going to be saying it. Seems everyone is calling him stupid these days, I went a bit too far there.

"Given all that, these folks who claim to know that Trump is smarter than Cruz or vice versa must be smarter than both."

I don't claim to know who is smarter. I just see that one is a lying sleaze and another who builds things all his life, has a consistent personality, and gets along best with normal people. That's what matters most to me. Ted Cruz heaving bibles in the air then using dirty campaign tactics all over makes me see him as a liar, and that's before all the shady connections. Hell, he's MARRIED to Goldman Sachs and the CFR.

I'd much rather be talking about how Trump is the only candidate to talk about reducing legal immigration, though. That seems more important.

Anonymous Sam the Man March 08, 2016 4:57 PM  

Someone's asked who will folks go to if Trump goes down, self destructs in a debate, is killed etc. The obvious person in Ted Cruz.

There are several problems with that, at least from folks in my Semi-suburban county in PA:

1) a lot of folks think Ted Cruz is not a natural born citizen (including my wife). Further these folks seem to question if by electing a questionable NBC we take off the table an investigation of the actual status of Obama. A lot of folks here want that, including the birth certificate, the fakes social security #, etc. Will not happen with Cruz.

2) No one in the professional class/Middle class/working class think any of the candidates are worried about American jobs except Trump and maybe Sanders (though they see Sanders as a communist.

3) Ted Cruz is on record as favoring reducing social security benefits. While they will likely be reduced in reality by inflation, advocating that is a loser position when the managerial and Banking class are seen as getting ever larger shares of the pie.

4) While trump came off very poorly in the last debate (he did to most folks I talk to), Cruz damaged himself in that and his speech after The Tuesday primary. In both venues he came across as a liar. Specific examples:

a) He said Trump favored Obama care, that was an outright lie:

b) He said Trump was against the 2nd Amendment, another lie, Trump is the only one favoring extending the equal protection clause to the 2nd Amendment (something of concern to Northeasterners)

c) He lied in the debate about the 4 donations to Hillary in 2008; further he did that as a deflection from answering why Jeff sessions favored Trump over him on immigration.

Since that I have head the phrase "Cruz is a lying liar who lies" a few times, never before this. I think he has damaged his trustworthiness which I think he had way over Trump at the beginning of this entire primary season.

5) The discussion of Cruz's intelligence seems very good on this board and if he is truly in the stratosphere might explain the man well and his failure to connect in a folksy way. He Has shown he will fight and I expect he would go after Hillary in a general election, far more than any other possible republican candidate.

With all the above what most folks in eastern PA seem to think, based on local demographics is Cruz has not legs, he will not manage to pull economically desperate folks over from the democratic side, he is seem as being too much of a globalist and elitist.

Of course given the next debate he might shed some of that, he sounded a lot better after the Saturday primaries.

Blogger Beau March 08, 2016 5:00 PM  

Nate,

Pure comedy gold, good on ya! Anklebiter!? hahahahahaha

Blogger frenchy March 08, 2016 5:03 PM  

That was funny. Now had they somehow worked in Thomas the Train...

Blogger SciVo March 08, 2016 5:23 PM  

Gaiseric wrote:They really do need each other to create a stronger ticket.

I'm warming up to the idea. Picture Cruz as president of the Senate. Now try to picture him giving giving a damn about convention, abdicating his Constitutional responsibility to represent the Executive to the Legislature, and letting the Senate run itself with a president pro tempore all the time.

Now picture the Senate's reaction to Cruz actually sitting in that seat as would be his Constitutional duty. They would never get the smell of brains out of the carpet from all the exploding heads. They'd have to just replace it.

I don't know if Cruz would actually do it or not... but he could. He's just enough of a dick that he actually might. So I submit to you all -- ilk, dread ilk, vile faceless minions, rabid puppies, lurkers, trolls, and anyone else -- that all good shitlords must do our best to keep at least viable, even you don't want him to win, and support him for the bottom of the ticket for the toppest of keks.

Blogger Sam Lively March 08, 2016 5:31 PM  

@136

I would love to watch the hamster wheels spinning for Erick Erickson and Glenn Beck in reaction to the announcement of a Trump/Cruz ticket.

Blogger Nate March 08, 2016 5:31 PM  

"Pure comedy gold, good on ya! Anklebiter!? hahahahahaha"

I aim to please mate. Good to see ya around.

Blogger Giraffe March 08, 2016 5:33 PM  

Nate's making the comment section great again.

Blogger Were-Puppy March 08, 2016 5:37 PM  

@84 Sam Lively

But Creepy or Weirdo Ted could be very powerful. I think the consensus here is that Ted is at least half Sigma, but I detect some distinct Omega qualities around the intellectual self-confidence.

Does this old video from when Teddy was a kid help determine Sigma and Omega?

https://youtu.be/vt-vG_TdOT4

Blogger Noah B March 08, 2016 5:38 PM  

Nate, if the Canadian Cubano takes the pool boy as his running mate, does he still have your vote?

Blogger Giraffe March 08, 2016 5:40 PM  

Nate, if the Canadian Cubano takes the pool boy as his running mate, does he still have your vote?

Sigma's don't vote.

Blogger SciVo March 08, 2016 5:40 PM  

Sheila4g wrote:While I recognize Trump as a flawed candidate, I remain a strong supporter because of his nationalism and populism. My one issue is immigration, although I also find his emphasis on "fair trade" appealing and his lack of antagonism against Putin reassuring.

It's "smart trade" now. Excellent rhetoric. "Fair trade" is a term that coffee buyers use to indicate that they voluntarily overpaid the growers, so that coffee-shop SWPLs can virtue-signal. And when it comes to negotiating trade deals with our competitors, I'd prefer a smart asshole over a dumb nice guy, eight days a week.

Blogger Sam Lively March 08, 2016 5:54 PM  

@140

Hard to judge with confidence from 30 seconds of a 17-year-old spouting off - could be boorish or creepy. But the social awkwardness is unquestionably strong in him.

Blogger Were-Puppy March 08, 2016 5:59 PM  

@121 Anonymous
These kind of, ahhh, things.

---

This looks like Narco's European crew

Blogger Snidely Whiplash March 08, 2016 6:03 PM  

Scott6584 wrote:So, if Trump self-destructs, where do you guys go?
I was going to go all snarky and trump-bot on you, but I'll give you an honest answer.
I think if Cruz is nominated, he is, on paper, the most conservative nominated since Goldwater. I would vote for Paper Ted without hesitation.
And I wish I could believe that Paper Ted was real, but all my fraud alarms go off every single time I see him talk. He's always using little verbal caveats, parsing his words excessively, leaving himself an out.
He hires the worst sort of GOP dirty tricksters. He's lining up the GOPe to support him, and those people always demand their price. He just signed Neill Bush as a finance director. He's frantically signalling to the donors and to the GOP parasite class that he will play ball.
So, no, I'm not going to vote for Ted. If we're lucky he will be another GW Bush, and I don't believe in luck.

Anonymous Mr. Rational March 08, 2016 6:03 PM  

I had Republican ballot #405 in my rather small village/township just before noon.

People are invested in the results.  If the GOPe pulls a coup, the GOP is done.

Blogger Escoffier March 08, 2016 6:23 PM  

JAG wrote:Yet another "Trump has peaked" claim. They will keep saying it as Trump is sworn in as POTUS next January.

They'll still be saying this after his landslide reelection!

Blogger Escoffier March 08, 2016 6:28 PM  

S1AL wrote:One v one is great for Cruz. Worst case scenario he loses, but at 45 he's established as the libertarian/religious right favorite.

So if I'm understanding you correctly that means he can never be elected president?

Blogger Tim Bushong March 08, 2016 6:36 PM  

Watching the autistic news reporter--Hahahahahahaha!

Blogger S1AL March 08, 2016 6:48 PM  

"So if I'm understanding you correctly that means he can never be elected president?"

I'm not sure what you're misunderstanding (or if you're snaking about libertarians).

Blogger frenchy March 08, 2016 6:53 PM  

@ Noah B,

My thought is that if Cruz somehow gets the nomination, Jeb Bush will be forced upon him so that he can run for prez down the road. After all, George H.W. Bush was not even a choice for VP under Reagan, yet he somehow got the nod. Lew Rockwell did a recent interview with Roger Stone who said this is how it went down.

Blogger Escoffier March 08, 2016 7:02 PM  

Giraffe wrote:Nate's making the comment section great again.

Is there a hat? I want a hat?

Blogger Escoffier March 08, 2016 7:03 PM  

S1AL wrote:"So if I'm understanding you correctly that means he can never be elected president?"

I'm not sure what you're misunderstanding (or if you're snaking about libertarians).


The latter.

Anonymous Watchu talkin bout Willis March 08, 2016 7:08 PM  

Trump will take Ohio. Any support Kasich gets is from the homers. He isn't especially popular here. 2nd place finish at best in the Buckeye State.

Blogger James Dixon March 08, 2016 7:08 PM  

> Given all that, these folks who claim to know that Trump is smarter than Cruz or vice versa must be smarter than both.

A fair number of the posters here are. However, first from the Boston Globe:

"His near-perfect score on the LSAT helped him fulfill a dream of going to Harvard Law School.",

Then from http://pumpkinperson.com/2015/04/20/brilliant-ted-cruz-towers-as-the-smartest-presidential-candidate/

Although the LSAT probably correlates very imperfectly with official IQ tests, a near-perfect score would equate to a towering IQ of around 145.

The first quote is the latter quoting the Boston Globe, but I have no reason to doubt that it's a correct quote.

The same site estimates Trumps IQ at 125 or so, but I'd hardly call the analysis rigorous: http://pumpkinperson.com/2015/07/22/estimating-the-iq-of-donald-trump/

> Nate, if the Canadian Cubano takes the pool boy as his running mate, does he still have your vote?

Nate doesn't vote. If Hillary wins this election I may join him in abstaining in the future.

Blogger SciVo March 08, 2016 7:34 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Noah B March 08, 2016 7:39 PM  

All this bitching and moaning and he doesn't even vote? Damned trolls.

Blogger SciVo March 08, 2016 7:39 PM  

In a game where the goal is to persuade the largest number of people, it is smarter to use smaller words and shorter sentences. It is impossible for me to judge Trump's IQ, because he has been deliberately hiding it this entire time. And that's all I can tell.

Blogger JaimeInTexas March 08, 2016 7:44 PM  

"Proof Rabbi B has never dated a hispanic"

You do not know me me but I have economic setbacks because I would not go back on my word. My Dad got screwed by a business associate but completed a construction project and took him years to fully recover financially because would not declare bankcrupcy. My grand fathers were men of integrity and their word was as gold. I have a great legacy.

Blogger JaimeInTexas March 08, 2016 7:47 PM  

Should be: but I have had

Blogger James Dixon March 08, 2016 7:54 PM  

> All this bitching and moaning and he doesn't even vote? Damned trolls.

Why should he vote. Except on local issues it's not like the vote of single person matters, and he's got it made with this election.

Look: Trump wins, the GOP explodes, Nate wins. Trump keeps his word, Nate wins. Trump doesn't keep his word, the dissolution of the US Empire is sped up, Nate wins. Hillary wins, the dissolution of the US Empire is sped up, Nate wins. The only way he can possibly lose is if Bernie wins, and Bernie is so economically illiterate that it will probably still speed up the dissolution of the US Empire and Nate still wins.

Blogger Nate March 08, 2016 7:57 PM  

"Nate, if the Canadian Cubano takes the pool boy as his running mate, does he still have your vote?"

In what world does a neo-confederate southern nationalist vote in the elections of the government he views as an occupying force?

Blogger Nate March 08, 2016 8:00 PM  

"> All this bitching and moaning and he doesn't even vote? Damned trolls."

Bitching and moaning?

The fact that I happen to enjoy pointing out that a sub-section of trump voters are blind-as-a-bat and damned near completely ignorant about everything, most of all, Donald Trump, in no way shape or form makes me a Cruz supporter.

The fact that I know Cruz has a monster IQ doesn't make me a Cruz supporter either. Any more than pointing out that Dekembe Motumbo was really tall made someone a Motumbo fan.

Lots of people are really smart and make terrible leaders. Jimmy Carter for example had a monster IQ by all sources. Still was a terrible president.

Binary thinkers... I swear to God... you people are like the guys that assume anyone that criticizes a republican must be a democrat.

Blogger Nate March 08, 2016 8:01 PM  

"Look: Trump wins, the GOP explodes, Nate wins. Trump keeps his word, Nate wins. Trump doesn't keep his word, the dissolution of the US Empire is sped up, Nate wins. Hillary wins, the dissolution of the US Empire is sped up, Nate wins. The only way he can possibly lose is if Bernie wins, and Bernie is so economically illiterate that it will probably still speed up the dissolution of the US Empire and Nate still wins."

Correct.

All of this is correct.

This election is the best thing ever for me... because no matter what happens I am bound to be happy about it.

Blogger Nate March 08, 2016 8:29 PM  

also..

Everyone remember Ultron's "There are no strings on me." speech?

We need that with Trump's head doing the talking.

Make it happen.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash March 08, 2016 8:38 PM  

James Dixon wrote:...and Nate still wins.
He's fucking Xanatos, bitch!

Blogger Patrikbc March 08, 2016 8:41 PM  

Sigbouncer, you have no email link on your profile. Send me an email through my profile, I have a few points I want your perspective on.

Blogger JaimeInTexas March 08, 2016 9:46 PM  

This causes me to say, I am Nate. GRIN

Blogger S1AL March 08, 2016 10:04 PM  

"In what world does a neo-confederate southern nationalist vote in the elections of the government he views as an occupying force?"

Blah Blah Blah, the South will rise again!



And then get conquered by the TexMex Empire.

Blogger haus frau March 09, 2016 12:01 AM  

My sister is a cruz fan. Her husband is also cuban so there's that. I have repeatedly pointed out the cfr- GS connections and the paper Mrs cruz cowrote. I also pointed out that the judge who wrote the favorable opinion on roe vs wade publicly admitted being heavily influenced by his wife and daughter. She conceded the point. I also laid out many of the strategic reasons mentioned on this blog for voting trump and made it clear that it isn't a matter of trusting trump. She appeared to listen and said she at least understood my rationale even if she disagreed with it.
The next day I posted and article on fb and she said she still couldn't believe I was serious and that I needed to take the election more seriously. What it appears to come down to more than anything for my cru loving sis is that Trump is vulgar. She said she wasn't ready to vote for president Herbert comacho Mountain Dew. So there you have it. Cruz's connections and his votes for tpp are irrelevant.

Blogger Nate March 09, 2016 12:04 AM  

"And then get conquered by the TexMex Empire."

You know what happenes when Tennessee gets drunk and picks a fight?


Texas.

Blogger ray March 09, 2016 1:34 AM  

I don't know any autistics like this.

Blogger Bosefus March 09, 2016 2:19 AM  

Was Oil Can Harry an alpha? Cruz is an illegal alien. Why can't you people settle some facts.

Blogger rho March 09, 2016 3:05 AM  

You know what happenes when Tennessee gets drunk and picks a fight?

Texas.


Nate's kinda blowhard, but he does nail it when he tries.

Texans will be mightily confused when Texas isn't Texan.

Blogger Jeffrey Quick March 09, 2016 9:09 AM  

@109 Have a job, wife is retired. You seem to be making a lot of assumptions about me based on virtually no evidence. Why?

Blogger David Adams March 09, 2016 11:14 AM  

@97 "Who is this Mensch?"

Mensch is a British former conservative MP. Mensch was on the committee that was investigating the phone hacking scandal in the UK and was on there when Murdoch was being cross examined, A few months later she was working for his tabloid "The Sun" with her own column.

Some were questioning about this .

She said "Anybody using the term “Zionist” to me is automatically muted for antisemitism."

Israel officially supports 3rd world immigration into europe.

She claimed on tv that she did drugs when she was younger and that they messed with her brain.




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