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Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Rabid Puppies 2016: updates and estimates

Chaos Horizon estimates between 20 percent and 80 percent of the Rabid Puppies will show up to nominate:
If the Rabid Puppies had around 550 votes in 2015, how many will they bring to 2016? Since all those who voted in 2015 can nominate in 2016, I imagine it will be a big number. Even so, I can’t imagine carrying 100% over—the nomination stage is simply less interesting, less publicized, and more difficult to vote in. Let’s imagine three scenarios: an 80% scenario, a 60% scenario, and a 40% scenario. I think 80% is the most likely; this is the group most invested in impacting the Hugos and the most likely to team up again. And since they don’t have to pay an entry fee to participate in the nomination stage . . .

I also think this group will have solid slate discipline, voting the list as Vox Day published it. If you want to factor in some slate decay, I’d do so for lesser known books like Agent of the Imperium.
I, personally, consider this to be an inadvertent affront. I would be surprised if only 80 percent of the Rabid Puppies could be bothered to show up and nominate - and remember, tomorrow is the last day in which you can submit your nominations to MidAmericaCon II. If you haven't gotten around to it yet, don't put it off any longer. Do it today.

What Chaos Horizon means by "slate decay" is a simple failure of discipline. Last year, for example, far more Puppies submitted nominations in Best Novel than in other, less important categories or went lone ranger on occasion. And while I can't see what slate decay could possibly have to do with what is merely a list of recommendations, and by no means a direct order to anyone, least of all the Rabid Puppies, the Sad Puppies, the Ilk, the Dread Ilk, the Vile Faceless Minions, or the Evil Legion of Evil, by their Supreme Dark Lord, I do think one would be remiss were one to fail to fill out the entire nominating ballot.

Speaking of which, I have updated the Rabid Puppies 2016 list with some of the additional information requested by the ballot form, such as the writers, directors, and editors in the Dramatic Presentation and Semiprozine categories. Be sure to check out your ballot before the end of day tomorrow to ensure that your voice is heard properly at the 2016 Hugo Awards. UPDATE: Note that as I have been unable to ascertain Rowena's eligibility for Best Professional Artist, I am replacing her with LARRY ROSTANT who does some excellent blended work.

There are two big questions that will dictate how the 2016 shortlist turns out. The first is whether the Tor cabal has enacted a whisper slate or not, although the one-year recusal of John Scalzi and others tends to indicate that the Torlings have elected to sit back and anticipate that events will provide the necessary support required to ratify EPH this year. Given the way EPH will ensure them at least one permanent nomination in every category, that would be a reasonable, if surprisingly strategic, approach. The second big question is how many Sad Puppies were converted to Rabid Puppies by the various antics of the Puppykickers; if this has actually happened, the RP turnout could potentially exceed 750.

But that, my dear canines, dolorous and corybantic, is entirely up to you. By the way, be sure to save the copy of your ballot that MidAmericaCon sends you after you enter your nominations. We will need them in order to verify the announced results.

UPDATE: MidAmeriCon II ‏has announced that the shortlist ballot will be announced on 26th April. Voting will open 15th May and close July 31st. Hugo/No Awards ceremony 20th August.

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88 Comments:

Anonymous VFM #6306 March 30, 2016 8:21 AM  

Such low targets in the water. Damn the torpedoes. Four bells. Full speed ahead!

Blogger #7139 March 30, 2016 8:23 AM  

Ballot has been updated.

Blogger Calbeck March 30, 2016 8:27 AM  

Neither Rabid nor Sad, but merely another GamerGater continuing payback for continuing slander. It's ironic in a way: Sci-Fi/Fantasy was once my primary interest, supplanted largely by gaming (both tabletop and video) over the years... and then reinvigorated by being told I'm not WELCOME in my old fandom thanks to lies and calumny.

Nothing fires up a true nerd like being told they can't be nerdy. And so I've rediscovered the joy of sitting down for hours to relax with a good book. A proscribed, despised, maligned book, of the sort that little blue-haired ladies once told me I would go to Hell for reading, and which little blue-haired ladies now tell me I'm a fascist for reading.

Thank you, Puppy-Kickers. You've brought me back to the fold.

Blogger Gaiseric March 30, 2016 8:31 AM  

@3: And sometimes it takes finding a good book. I rather belatedly picked up Monster Hunter Nemesis less than 48 hours ago, and I'm on track to finish it today. I've almost forgotten in a way, because it's been a long time, since I had a book so engaging that it was difficult to put down.

Blogger Rantor March 30, 2016 8:49 AM  

I have thoughtfully and fully completed my ballot.

Blogger Shimshon March 30, 2016 8:50 AM  

I asked this question on the RP list:

For Best Novelette, is the "Author" the entirety of this?

David VanDyke, There Will Be War Vol. X

Or leave out the book it appears in?

Or is "author"

David VanDyke

And "Magazine/Publisher"

There Will Be War Vol. X, Castalia House?

As I also said, semi-colons would make the separate parts easier to distinguish.

Blogger Cataline Sergius March 30, 2016 8:55 AM  

Question:

Regarding Retro Hugos

Universe and Common Sense were both published by Robert Heinlein in Astounding in 1941. However they weren't rolled together into the book; Orphan's of the Sky until 1963.

Does this disqualify it from the Best Novel category for 1941?

Blogger VD March 30, 2016 8:59 AM  

Or is "author"

David VanDyke

And "Magazine/Publisher"

There Will Be War Vol. X, Castalia House?


Yes. I don't see how that is unclear. Why would you think that the anthology would be the author?

Blogger Mr.MantraMan March 30, 2016 9:04 AM  

In distantly related news at Drudge the top listing is the world resisting Hollywood's diversity perversity. Now which way is Tor going?

Blogger The Kurgan March 30, 2016 9:14 AM  

It is a thing of beauty this huge awards process. I especially enjoy the voting part. It is a labour of love really.

Anonymous hoaglin1968 March 30, 2016 9:27 AM  

I'm looking forward to confirming if the drop off in comments regarding Rabid Puppies post compared to last year indicates that this stuff is being communicated secretly off blog or if you have lost a significant amount of influence.

The "success" of the Tor "boycott" would indicate the later, but we'll see for sure once the nominations are announced!

Anonymous Rolf March 30, 2016 9:28 AM  

Is it normal to not be emailed a list of who you voted for after a bunch of nominations have been made and I hit the submit ballot button? Vox's comment made me realized I'd voted, but not received any sort of confirmation email. Or does that happen only after the close of noms with your final list?

Blogger Salt March 30, 2016 9:31 AM  

@12 You'll get an email of your updated ballot. Might not happen immediately. Check your spam filter too.

Blogger L. Jagi Lamplighter Wright March 30, 2016 9:35 AM  

I would feel much better about the upcoming Hugos, if this administration had not announced that they would not release the nomination numbers. If a large group, such as the outsiders we were told were brought in to vote no award all vote in total lockstep....we will never know.

Anonymous Shut up rabbit March 30, 2016 9:39 AM  

@11. hoaglin1968

I didn't buy a single Tor book since I was insulted by that woman - that's 100% success rate for me. Similarly, watching the waddling CHORFs completely vindicate the puppies by openly insulting the outsiders and blowing up their own awards ceremony (even going so far as to replace them with the even more insular, smugfest that was the laughable "Rape Rape Awards" in a backroom) was worth every penny.

I was amused.

Oh, I see. You think we care what passive-aggressive nobodies like you think out us? How silly of you. Since you've been here with your big-boy super-secret-spy pants on for a while you'll know this: we don't care.

Blogger VD March 30, 2016 9:43 AM  

RP: Note that I substituted Larry Rostant for Rowena Morrill in Best Pro Artist on eligibility grounds.

Blogger VD March 30, 2016 9:43 AM  

Is it normal to not be emailed a list of who you voted for after a bunch of nominations have been made and I hit the submit ballot button?

No, you should receive one. If you don't, email them and ask.

Anonymous bye-bye-curious March 30, 2016 9:45 AM  

Is it too late to buy a membership and submit nominations? Must one have already been a member?

If not too late, I will fork over the $50.

Anonymous Roundtine March 30, 2016 9:49 AM  

I received my first ballot email 12+ hours after nominating, and I kept saving it as I went along, but received emails that came several hours apart. That was several days ago, I would guess their servers are busier with one day left.

Anonymous Roundtine March 30, 2016 9:50 AM  

it too late to buy a membership and submit nominations? Must one have already been a member?

If not too late, I will fork over the $50.


You cannot nominate this year, but you can vote this year and nominate next year.

Anonymous Hoaglin1968 March 30, 2016 9:53 AM  

Since you've been here with your big-boy super-secret-spy pants on for a while you'll know this: we don't care.

Clearly...

Blogger Blackburn #0040 March 30, 2016 9:57 AM  

Any significance to the order of the nominees changing in some of the categories with the latest updates? I mean I know this is merely a list of recommendations, and by no means a direct order to anyone, least of all the Rabid Puppies, the Sad Puppies, the Ilk, the Dread Ilk, the Vile Faceless Minions, or the Evil Legion of Evil, by their Supreme Dark Lord.

Blogger Student in Blue March 30, 2016 10:06 AM  

What a crazy coincidence Vox, your current picks reflect mine almost identically!

Blogger VFM #7191 March 30, 2016 10:06 AM  

I've made the necessary updates to my ballot and I've submitted it. Still waiting for my confirmation email(s), but in the meantime I've taken screen shots just in case.

Blogger Mom March 30, 2016 10:14 AM  

@3 Some of the little blue haired ladies are Rabids. I am.

Anonymous Nicolai Zolnir March 30, 2016 10:22 AM  

Ballot updated and submitted. I thinks it's a refreshing surprise to see that Vox and I share the exact same taste in litterature and media.

Blogger Student in Blue March 30, 2016 10:26 AM  

I thinks it's a refreshing surprise to see that Vox and I share the exact same taste in litterature and media.

I know, right?

It's certainly refreshing to have another brony-in-arms in Vox. :)

Blogger Mr.MantraMan March 30, 2016 10:31 AM  

In my case I became "Rabid" after last year's nominations and signed up and of course this year I nominated and will re up to vote

Blogger Blume March 30, 2016 10:36 AM  

What is there to talk about? We hear and obey.

Anonymous Nathan March 30, 2016 10:41 AM  

I expect some secret slating to go on. Jeffro's pointed out a couple articles with "if it weren't for the Puppies, Feminist Frequency would have been nominated." So there's clearly some dog-whistling going on. I don't see FF being a rallying cry inside SFF, so just what are these people going to nominate?

That said, it hasn't been a full-court press like last year's smear campaign, so I don't think it originates with the Elders of Tor.

Blogger Giraffe March 30, 2016 10:42 AM  

My Lord, you really should consider this work for best short story:

http://www.amazon.com/John-Scalzi-Banned-Never-Burning-ebook/dp/B014U9GDMU

Anonymous IndecisiveEvidence March 30, 2016 10:49 AM  

I submitted by ballot, as independent and honest as any GoodReads review, Sunday. I saved after every nomination and have been getting emails every 12 hours or so since up to last night. I STILL don't have a complete email but if I log back in all my choices are correctly filled out.

Blogger Austin Ballast March 30, 2016 10:52 AM  

You could always print to a PDF file assuming that is a printer option for you.

Blogger BassmanCO March 30, 2016 10:53 AM  

@32

Pretty much the same with me. I submitted my ballot frequently (I have been burned by being timed out on too many websites), but only received one email so far. Log back in, and all is well.

@23, @26, @27

I know, right? Who knew?

Anonymous The OASF March 30, 2016 10:58 AM  

I have to laugh every time I see the RP2016 banner "Making the Hugos Great Again." That has to be about the near perfect combination of rhetoric & troll.

Blogger VD March 30, 2016 11:05 AM  

I would feel much better about the upcoming Hugos, if this administration had not announced that they would not release the nomination numbers.

What does this mean exactly? Are you talking about the number of nominations submitted or are you talking about the results? I find the latter very hard to believe.

Anonymous Chico and the Man March 30, 2016 11:14 AM  

Done. Pretty good recommendations.

Mrs. Lamplighter, my kid's waiting on the next installment of Rachel Griffin. I think she's read the first two more than a dozen times each.

Blogger tweell March 30, 2016 11:29 AM  

I was a sad puppy. After what happened at the Hugo's? Rabid. Burn. It. Down.

Blogger Nate March 30, 2016 11:46 AM  

this is the hard part. but this is also where we win. The voting later on is just the victory dance.

Blogger Clint March 30, 2016 12:00 PM  

VD wrote:Is it normal to not be emailed a list of who you voted for after a bunch of nominations have been made and I hit the submit ballot button?

No, you should receive one. If you don't, email them and ask.


I did not get the email, so sent them a note asking about it. Here is the response:

Sometimes. The sending is unreliable.

Blogger Daniel March 30, 2016 12:05 PM  

I'm sure the long standing Noreascon slate and Pacificon or whatever have gotten their slates together as they have for decades...unless they have abandoned those dinghys, recognizing the futility of dozens vs. Hundreds.

Blogger L. Jagi Lamplighter Wright March 30, 2016 12:34 PM  

Normally, they release the numbers for the nominations...like the pink sheet we got at the end. How many people nominate what. I have heard...though, hopefully, it is not so...that this year's team had announced that they would release no numbers at all.

Blogger L. Jagi Lamplighter Wright March 30, 2016 12:36 PM  

37. Re: Rachel Griffin (first, today is Rachel Griffin's birthday. You can tell your daughter.)

Second, a new version of the books should be coming out from a new publisher. God willing, they will eventually get to Book Three.

But if you'd like a .doc version of Book Three for her, email me at gmail. user name: Arhyalon.

Anonymous VFM #6306 March 30, 2016 12:48 PM  

So is the nominating. I can't update right now. It is letting me in but sending me to a blank page instead of my regular ballot.

Blogger Lana J March 30, 2016 12:51 PM  

I couldn't get it to re-fresh and update my votes and now it won't let me log in at all.

Blogger Nate March 30, 2016 12:53 PM  

yep. the site is completely fubar'd. Never seen this before in the nomination stage.

makes me wonder if its Rabid Puppies busily destroying everything.

OpenID basementhomebrewer March 30, 2016 12:54 PM  

They may be shocked to find that the RP slate ends up being voted more than 100% of last years RP slate. I voted the SP slate last year but after the no award shenanigans I switched to RP. I doubt that I am the only one who was moved to the Rabid column by the childish behavior displayed by "TRUEFEN".

Blogger Cynic In Chief March 30, 2016 12:57 PM  

@46 It's because their site is junk. It's loading a PHP script in an iframe and the script is crashing, showing nothing in the iframe. I don't know if it's running on a home server or not, but a decent solution shouldn't crash with a few hundred people on it like this one seems to be doing.

Anonymous NewJerseyThomas March 30, 2016 12:58 PM  

Is anyone else having trouble accessing the ballot? I had already submitted mine, but wanted to go over it once more. The MidAmeriCon website crashes when I try to log in.

Blogger David The Good March 30, 2016 1:11 PM  

Yeah, it's gone blank for me as well. I finished 2/3 of the process last week and tried to log on to finish my ballot today. No luck.

Blogger Salt March 30, 2016 1:13 PM  

RP strikes at Hugo noms. News at 11.

Anonymous roo_ster March 30, 2016 1:36 PM  

Sal wrote:
"RP strikes at Hugo noms. News at 11."

Nigel Tufnel:
"These puppies go to eleven."

Anonymous Ezekiel Cassandros March 30, 2016 1:37 PM  

What should I put in the writer/director spot for Tales of the Borderlands? Only the title is listed on the RP slate; should I put "Telltale Games" or "Tales of the Borderlands" in the Studio/Series slot?

Blogger Alexander March 30, 2016 1:55 PM  

I had my ballot in last week but was able to upload it this morning just to double check everything and make a few updates to it.

So at some point today at any rate, it was working.

Anonymous Spartacus xxxxx March 30, 2016 2:20 PM  

Student in Blue wrote:I thinks it's a refreshing surprise to see that Vox and I share the exact same taste in litterature and media.

I know, right?
)


The site worked ok for me. Unlike some others, I exercised my own free will and voted in good conscience and from the highest moral ground for the very best of 2015. I would not stoop so low as to follow anyone else's "slate". Much to my surprise, The Supreme Dark Lord apparently has the same impeccable taste as my most-esteemed self.

Blogger VD March 30, 2016 2:22 PM  

What should I put in the writer/director spot for Tales of the Borderlands?

Look at the list again. It's been updated with that info.

Blogger Lana J March 30, 2016 2:23 PM  

It's working fine for me now. I got it finished about half an hour ago.

Anonymous Archange March 30, 2016 2:24 PM  

Question. I'm filling out the on-line ballot and pressing submit after each entry. When the page refreshes, it's showing my selection, but in a different order than I entered them.

Does prioritizing matter in the nomination phase, or only in the final voting phase?

Thanks.

Blogger Craig March 30, 2016 2:28 PM  

There is no prioritizing in the nomination stage.

Blogger Jon M March 30, 2016 2:29 PM  

This is the most entertaiment bang for $40 I have ever had. It's like a trainwreck subscription service. Chalk me up as another +1 that was late to last year's party but won't miss a moment of this one.

Those of you on the fence should budget your forty bucks now. Being a part of this is worth every penny.

Anonymous Spartacus xxxxx March 30, 2016 2:40 PM  

Just because, you could also screenshot your filled-in ballots. It take about eight shots to get the whole thing.

Blogger Marc DuQuesne March 30, 2016 2:46 PM  

Due to Puppies participation, Sasquan turned a profit of ~150k. I was disheartened to think how we're subsidizing our enemies in this battle, then I heard that it also allowed them to fully fund their shuttle bus system between con hotels. Thus preventing what little exercise these morbidly obese slugs actually get and hastening their demise.

The Dark Lord is truly subtle with his revenge.

Blogger Migly March 30, 2016 3:37 PM  

"L. Jagi Lamplighter Wright: I have heard...though, hopefully, it is not so...that this year's team had announced that they would release no numbers at all."

Was this posted online anywhere?

The rules require that the nominating stats (to the first 15 places) be published.

Anonymous VFM #Obvious March 30, 2016 4:08 PM  

Ahh yes, Calbeck. The man who thinks he's a pony, who once tried to see WizKids because he wrote BattleTech fanfic involving ponies. Then said he was going to sue WorldCon for the asterisks. Truly someone that the Ilk are glad to welcome into their ranks.

Blogger EscapeVelocity March 30, 2016 4:28 PM  

I didnt nominate or vote last year. But Im in this year. So you have some new blood as well. However I didnt vote straight Rabid Puppy. I voted a mix of Rabid & Sad plus a few of mine own additions. Namely the South Park Season 19 in Best Dramatic Presentation Long Form and two specific episodes #1 "Stunning & Brave" and #5 "Safe Space" in Best Dramatic Presentation Short Form. Also every one of my other picks in Best Dramatic Presentation Long Form were Video Games.

But mostly Im pretty tight with Rabid Puppies, moreso than SadPuppies. Where they overlap, I almost always nominated.

Hope that helps with your data gathtering and analysis.

Blogger Ahazuerus March 30, 2016 4:46 PM  

I have slavishly taken my dark Lord's subtlest hints and painstakingly copy/pasted his recommendations.

I am but a worm.

Blogger VD March 30, 2016 5:22 PM  

Don't buy a membership now. It's too late to nominate.

Anonymous Ezekiel Cassandros March 30, 2016 5:34 PM  

VD wrote:What should I put in the writer/director spot for Tales of the Borderlands?

Look at the list again. It's been updated with that info.


Not on the post you linked to. It still just says "Tales from the Borderlands Episode 5, 'The Vault of the Traveller' "

"Best Fanzine" also has a slot for "editor" on the ballot. Unfortunately I cannot right now access my ballot to see if there are other holes.

Blogger Salt March 30, 2016 5:36 PM  

@65 So brave.

Blogger Subversive Saint March 30, 2016 5:59 PM  

I am attempting to complete my master's will, yet alas the form will not load from yonder server. I must bide my time and attempt a second time in the evening.

Blogger Achilles March 30, 2016 6:38 PM  

My oddly similar nominations have been submitted. April 26th should be fun.

Anonymous aviendha March 30, 2016 7:01 PM  

win7 chrome/firefox fails to render but IE 11 good to go. No email unlike sasquan which would email you after every section submit.

Anonymous Ranger Mosby March 30, 2016 7:48 PM  

I tried to mention this this morning, but I posted to the comments on the original list of recommendations, not to this thread.

George Gamow's wonderful book of fantastic stories that illustrate the basic laws of physics, *Mr. Tompkins in Wonderland*, is eligible for a Retro Hugo this year, and well-deserving of one.

Blogger Subversive Saint March 30, 2016 7:53 PM  

Having the fear of the dread stare from the Evil Lord, I am grateful to proclaim my rabid adherence to his every wish and whim. A ballot posted. A ballot counted. My anxious soul is assuaged.

Blogger Subversive Saint March 30, 2016 8:26 PM  

Having the fear of the dread stare from the Evil Lord, I am grateful to proclaim my rabid adherence to his every wish and whim. A ballot posted. A ballot counted. My anxious soul is assuaged.

Anonymous Rolf March 30, 2016 8:49 PM  

Well, crap. Only three emails from them, and two of those trapped in the spam filter. Only the very first category of anything was recognized in any of them, only best novel. I filled them all out and hit submit by category.
Guess I have to go check again....
*check, check, check*

Yes, they are still showing up online. Hmmmm... Confirmation email would be nice, though.

Blogger Skylark Thibedeau March 30, 2016 9:12 PM  

I have voted. Rabid Puppies Rule

Blogger L. Jagi Lamplighter Wright March 30, 2016 9:29 PM  

@Migly -- I had been told that they had posted it...but looking, I cannot find it. I cannot imagine they could get away with breaking the rules...so I suspect that what I heard was in regard to a secondary thing and the initial numbers will still be released.

That is comforting!

Anonymous MendoScot March 30, 2016 9:59 PM  

Did anyone else find that on each ballot submission (save) the sequences in all the other categories were randomized? I don't know that this is relevant, but...

Anonymous JRL March 30, 2016 10:03 PM  

Ballot submitted.

And there was much rejoicing.

Blogger Skylark Thibedeau March 30, 2016 11:42 PM  

I have voted. Rabid Puppies Rule

Anonymous Peter #0231 March 31, 2016 12:37 AM  

I initially did the nominations several days ago, didn't have any problems. I waited until after midnight (very early 31 March, eastern) to amend the ballot with the information that His Malevolence just happened to post. Again, no problem.

Anonymous Jon Bromfield March 31, 2016 10:43 AM  

Just got my nominations in. Amazing how closely my picks align with the Supreme Dark Lord's. Really pulling for "Space Raptor Butt Invasion," a seminal work of throbbing sensuality and moral uplift. Rachel Swirsky has much to learn from Mr. Tingle.

Blogger David March 31, 2016 4:26 PM  

What is it with the continually shifting order of nominations within category? Is that significant or just Hugo weirdness?

Blogger David March 31, 2016 4:27 PM  

84 to 79. Yes, I noticed.

Blogger HickoryHammer March 31, 2016 8:47 PM  

Good Evening. I've entered my selections, and I just wanted to confirm that we don't get an email confirmation this year? It seems as though the website saved everything I put into it last night, but some confirmation would have been nice. Sad.

Blogger SirHamster March 31, 2016 9:21 PM  

I got confirmations the first time I entered the ballots, last week. I suspect they've disabled them since.

It was annoying getting 20 odd confirmation emails last week because I saved the ballot after doing each section.

Anonymous cynical April 01, 2016 2:01 AM  

Since I wasn't getting emails either, I printed off a copy of my nomination list. In Palemoon/Firefox, I right-clicked within the window, and selected This Frame -> Print and printed to my PDF driver, so I had a digital copy.

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