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Wednesday, March 09, 2016

Three of four

As I have repeatedly pointed out, the proportional states are not terribly significant except in that they are a harbinger of the very important winner-takes-all states:

MI: Trump 36.5, Cruz 24.9, Kasich 24.2
MS: Trump 47.3, Cruz 36.7
HI: Trump 45.5, Cruz 32.2
ID: Cruz 45.0, Trump 28.1

So, Trump significantly exceeded the 30 percent of the delegates he needed to take in all four states. And each state in which he outperforms that percentage reduces the percentage he needs in the other proportional states. More importantly, the feeble showing of Kasich in Michigan despite all the predictions of how he was rapidly closing in on Trump indicates that Trump is going to win both Ohio and Florida in six days.

And that should be enough to guarantee him the nomination. Especially if he picks up Missouri as well.

Meanwhile, Ted Cruz's campaign is at it again:
Marco Rubio’s campaign accused Ted Cruz’s camp of "dirty tricks" Tuesday, after Cruz supporters in Hawaii blasted out an email suggesting the Florida senator was about to drop out of the race. The email, sent by “Ted Cruz Hawaii,” cites a disputed CNN report claiming some Rubio advisers have told him to drop out of the 2016 race before Florida's primary next week, fearing he could be humiliated by a defeat in his home state.
At this point, it makes no difference if Rubio drops out or not. Trump is going to crush both him and Cruz in Florida.

Labels:

141 Comments:

Blogger rho March 09, 2016 3:29 AM  

As I have repeatedly pointed out, butt out, Indian Italian.

Blogger Samuel Nock March 09, 2016 3:30 AM  

Message from Michigan on both the R and D sides: Whites are voting against the establishment. Trump should be able to convert many of the Sanders voters in the general election against Hillary.

Anonymous Pax_Romana March 09, 2016 4:04 AM  

@2
True, but a great deal of Republicans I've talked to (or seen post on Facebook) said they'll vote Hillary if Trump wins. Of course, the only people I know live in Oregon and California, so their cuckservative nature doesn't matter, as those states are guaranteed blue, anyway.

Blogger Samuel Nock March 09, 2016 4:20 AM  

@3 Interesting. So question is to what extent that dynamic (in both directions) will flip states. As you indicate, I think the RINO Hillary voters will mainly be in states that Trump cannot expect anyway, whereas former Sanders voters who go for Trump could well flip states that normally are blue in Trump's favor.

Blogger Myles March 09, 2016 4:30 AM  

TRS was speculating that Trump could get a good chunk of the Bernie supporters by either forgiving student debt or allowing it to be cleared in bankruptcy.

Blogger Aeoli Pera March 09, 2016 4:47 AM  

rho wrote:As I have repeatedly pointed out, butt out, Indian Italian.

Alternatively, you could refrain from reading the blog and engaging in the comments.

Blogger rho March 09, 2016 4:55 AM  

Alternatively, you could refrain from reading the blog and engaging in the comments.

1) VD is a self-identified Indian
2) VD is self-identified Italian

It's not like I made this up.

Anonymous Bobby Farr March 09, 2016 5:00 AM  

Idaho is interesting since it is the first time Cruz has one in a state that wasn't either a closed caucus or his home turf (TX, OK). Does he have some sort of regional strength or is ID a likely outlier for the West?

OpenID douchebagdeluxe March 09, 2016 5:01 AM  

If anyone wants to share their knowledge:

Interested to hear an explanation as to why Cruz got ID by such a large margin (+40'000 votes out of a pool of ~200'000).

And why the 19 delegates of Hawaii haven't been assigned to Trump. Checked on RealClearPolitics and it's still 0 delegates from HI for Trump although 100% of the votes have been accounted for.

Anonymous Bobby Farr March 09, 2016 5:02 AM  

won, not o

Blogger Silent Cal March 09, 2016 5:03 AM  

Trump keeps winning and bringing in new people and all the cucks can write about is how he needs to change.

They don't call it the stupid party for nothing.

Blogger SteelPalm March 09, 2016 5:09 AM  

Vox, out of curiosity, don't you respect that Cruz is willing to fight at least a bit dirty to win?

Just like Trump has, and just like anyone who wants to defeat the SJWs and Hillary will have to?

Anonymous jon March 09, 2016 5:11 AM  

"a great deal of Republicans I've talked to (or seen post on Facebook) said they'll vote Hillary if Trump wins."
1. You shouldn't be on Facebook, that should go without saying at this point.
2. I've noticed the same thing in various comments sections (e.g. The Blaze, Red State, The Right Scoop). I don't know if that is just the opinion of a few hundred angry bloggers or if it represents the tip of a much bigger iceberg, but there are some rabid anti-Trump voters out there on the Republican side. Hopefully, it's not so many that it can't be easily offset by greater turnout and crossover Dems.

Anonymous jon March 09, 2016 5:14 AM  

"Does he have some sort of regional strength or is ID a likely outlier for the West?"

Idaho has a lot of Mormons, particularly in the south. Romney's speech probably had a bigger effect there than elsewhere (where it probably had the opposite effect).

Anonymous Steve March 09, 2016 5:24 AM  

Mormons seem to hate Trump. It's not just Glenn Beck and Mitt Romney, but also the LDS leadership crying "muh ruligus freedums!"* over Trump's plan to keep goat botherers out of the US.

*Catholic and some Protestant denominations have said the same, but most Catholics don't care what bishops have to say about politics, and Trump's got enough Evangelical air cover to more than offset the anti-Trump noise from Episcopalians and whatnot.

Blogger Jew613 March 09, 2016 5:46 AM  

I'm glad to see the quality of the rhetoric has improved at least slightly from the leftiest, good job RHO.

Blogger Silent Cal March 09, 2016 5:47 AM  

Idaho has the second largest percentage of Mormons. Utah is first with 72% and Idaho is second with 27%.

Anonymous Steve March 09, 2016 5:52 AM  

Trump keeps winning and bringing in new people and all the cucks can write about is how he needs to change.

The media is beyond desperate now.

Usually when they call someone bad names the victim would have apologised and rolled over into a ditch to die by now.

Trump just gives them the middle finger and keeps winning. The shaming voodoo no worky no more and they're terrified.

The BBC sent a reporter to the isle of Lewis to bother Trump's Scottish cousins. They refused to speak to him, but that didn't stop the BBC from reading their minds:

but it struck me that it had been like visiting the scene of a mortifying calamity. I hesitate to say it, but there was a sense of shame as well as irritation.

Maybe if they just call him "HITTTLLLLEERRRR!" one more time, it might work? ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

Blogger Stilicho March 09, 2016 6:03 AM  

Many nominally Christian RINO/cuckservatives truly hate and fear Cruz due to his openly professed Christianity. The ones I speak with typically prefer Kasich or Rubio, but acknowledge that neither has a chance, so they will reluctantly vote for Trump because they feel his faith isn't too important to him. If Cruz were the nominee, they'd rather vote for the Lizard Queen. I suspect this also describes a significant portion of the Jewish "Right" as well.

Trump's support is broad and continues to grow. I expect Carson to endorse him at some point soon which will only help Trump with conservatives. Hell, P-Doodly (sp?) may even start a "Trump or die" campaign before it's over.

I wonder who Trump will select as his VP?

Blogger Adam Meek March 09, 2016 6:09 AM  

I'm hearing Berniebros IRL talk about voting Trump if their man doesn't snag the Democratic nom... anybody else see where Jim Webb said he wouldn't vote for Clinton and wasn't sure about Trump? Sounds like there might be a few Trump Democrats.

OTOH, no Republican I've met IRL says they'd vote for Clinton over Trump... these #NeverTrump people represent nothing, no wider movement.

Anonymous RCFlyer March 09, 2016 6:24 AM  

I LOVE these new Trump press conferences - they are pure gold. How can you not love a candidate who BTFO a CNN reporter by telling him "Nobody listens to you, Jeremy."

I was up in Scotland last weekend and we drove past one of Trump's hotels. I am now kicking myself for not stopping and having a Trump Steak.

OpenID douchebagdeluxe March 09, 2016 6:30 AM  

@20 Saw that. But the best clip of the past 24hours has to be that of Megyn Kelly's giddiness from Trump's shout out.

Trump Gives Megyn Kelly a Shout Out at Jupiter Victory Speech:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNZsZoGAALA

The woman is glowing with inner joy and excitement.

Anonymous Napoleon 12pdr March 09, 2016 6:42 AM  

If the GOPe wants to stop Trump, they need to take Rubio and Kasich out ASAP. Cruz is the only viable alternative.

Anonymous RCFlyer March 09, 2016 6:42 AM  

@douchebagdeluxe - wow, that clip is amazing. Megyn had a spontaneous orgasm after being acknowledged by her Alpha.

Blogger Escoffier March 09, 2016 6:45 AM  

Pax_Romana wrote:@2

True, but a great deal of Republicans I've talked to (or seen post on Facebook) said they'll vote Hillary if Trump wins. Of course, the only people I know live in Oregon and California, so their cuckservative nature doesn't matter, as those states are guaranteed blue, anyway.


And isn't that the problem with R's in a nutshell.

Anonymous Steve March 09, 2016 6:50 AM  

FOR SALE: One (1 x) foam cannon. Nearly new. Only briefly used for a party in Minnesota. Sensible offers only. No timewasters. Contact Marco@gop.org

Anonymous Guy Stumpman March 09, 2016 6:51 AM  

You're a self identified asshole. Go fap elsewhere little boy.

Anonymous Bobby Farr March 09, 2016 6:55 AM  

But Trump won overwhelmingly in NV, where 1/4th the vote was Mormon in 2012. Hard to believe Romney's speech would have caused such a swing in Cruz's favor in ID.

Anonymous Punisher March 09, 2016 7:01 AM  

There is a phenomenon I cannot understand: Trump supporters and Hillary haters are in the blogs and comments sections all over the internet yet I cannot find them in real life... My family (Ohio) is supporting Cruz, friends (Maryland) are anti-Trump pro-nobody, my co-workers (USMC) are nervous about Trump, my students (Navy midshipmen) almost all despise Trump and Hillary, my church friends (Assemblies of God) talk about how Trump scares them and the wall is stupid....and the only Hillary supporter I've met is a crusty old woman barber who hates Obama but voted for Hillary last time and will do it again just because women...

I am not a sheltered person. I get out a lot. I am wholeheartedly behind Trump but I am increasingly frustrated to discover that my demographic does not correlate to the results of these primaries. It's like I'm not living in reality.

I want to meet these Trump supporters in real life so we can be friends. I want to meet these Hillary cultists so I can be reassured that she's not frauding the process and so I can confirm how depraved they are...

Anyone else have the same struggle?

Anonymous Wild Bill March 09, 2016 7:04 AM  

I haven't seen any of the major sites cover Rubio's infidelity. Is it not sticking?

Blogger Nate March 09, 2016 7:10 AM  

" Meanwhile, Ted Cruz's campaign is at it again:"

Ted is ruthless. But it appears he has learned the same lesson you learned Vox.

The media is going to hate him anyway. So why bother playing nice?

Anonymous That Would Be Telling March 09, 2016 7:12 AM  

A lot of Idaho cuckservatives absolutely loathe the state's reputation as a haven for white supremacists and it's entirely likely they'd crawl across broken glass to vote against Trump.

Blogger Jack Aubrey March 09, 2016 7:17 AM  

Bobby Farr wrote:But Trump won overwhelmingly in NV, where 1/4th the vote was Mormon in 2012. Hard to believe Romney's speech would have caused such a swing in Cruz's favor in ID.

I believe Romney's speech was after the Nevada vote.

Blogger pyrrhus March 09, 2016 7:19 AM  

TRS was speculating that Trump could get a good chunk of the Bernie supporters by either forgiving student debt or allowing it to be cleared in bankruptcy.

Allowing bankruptcy discharge would be a good idea combined with canceling the federal student loan program.

Anonymous Here's your answer March 09, 2016 7:20 AM  

"But Trump won overwhelmingly in NV, where 1/4th the vote was Mormon in 2012. Hard to believe Romney's speech would have caused such a swing in Cruz's favor in ID."

People in Idaho are stupid, same as Texas.

Blogger FALPhil March 09, 2016 7:20 AM  

@25 And isn't that the problem with R's in a nutshell.

Absolutely. In my adult life, and it is considerably longer than most of the readers of this blog, it has mostly been a choice between Democrats and Democrats Lite, and I recognized early on that we did not have a two party system. Both parties are feeding the oligarchy, which has been accelerating.

It is not as if the Democrats don't have their own problems. Their choice is a felon or a nutbag who refuses to recognize that socialism has been an abject failure wherever it was tried.

Unfortunately, the US voter keeps sending the same malefactors back to office over and over and over again. They refuse to get off the incumbent dime. Therefore, they deserve what they get. While we thinking types perceive the problem to varying degrees, we are a minority. Until we provide leadership in demonstrating there is a Better Way, we will be stuck in this rut for the foreseeable future.

Like VD, I am notoriously bad at predicting election outcomes, so I don't know what is going to happen. While Trump gives me a glimmer of hope, my fear is, "Meet the new boss; same as the old boss." There are forces at work that are not obvious. I think Ike was right.

Anonymous Bobby Farr March 09, 2016 7:22 AM  

@33 Yes, I was referring to the swing from a strong Trump win in NV to a post-Romney speech loss in Idaho.

Anonymous Arnold Sigmanegger March 09, 2016 7:27 AM  

The really important thing here is Trump’s taste in women. As a fellow trim hound, I salute him.

Blogger Ron March 09, 2016 7:27 AM  

Because he's lying to the electorate.

Blogger FALPhil March 09, 2016 7:30 AM  

@39 Because he's lying to the electorate.

They all lie. Were you trying to make a point?

Blogger Nate March 09, 2016 7:31 AM  

"). I don't know if that is just the opinion of a few hundred angry bloggers or if it represents the tip of a much bigger iceberg, but there are some rabid anti-Trump voters out there on the Republican side. Hopefully, it's not so many that it can't be easily offset by greater turnout and crossover Dems."

Its not a huge chunk... but you have to remember there is a segment that genuinely likes guys like Romney and Dole.

Now for the life of me I can't understand what someone who like Romney would have against someone like Trump... unless they are so superficial they are really that upset about tone.

Blogger Rantor March 09, 2016 7:35 AM  

Punisher, do you work in DC? In my office 25 % are good with Trump. I am only Trumpthisiast. They think me crazy. But they know I was a Paulista too.

Blogger CM March 09, 2016 7:35 AM  

@29
I'm an outlier in my demo, as well. Friends are rabidly anti-Trump except one who doesn't have much respect for him with his debate ditching over Megyn, but she's sympathetic.
My family is Cruz, but would vote for Trump. My in laws and I are the only T voters I know of.

However, there may be some supporters that are keeping their mouth shut in your church. I don't talk politics there even if everyone else is. I can't be the only one.

Blogger Salt March 09, 2016 7:36 AM  

Nate wrote:Now for the life of me I can't understand what someone who like Romney would have against someone like Trump

It's the underoos.

Blogger CM March 09, 2016 7:38 AM  

@41
All that hateful rhetoric!

Its a good thing Hillary doesn't engage in it!

Anonymous Watchu talkin bout Willis March 09, 2016 7:54 AM  

There is a fear among the rank and file Republicans that Trump can't win the general election, a fear perpetuated by the GOPe, Dems and media. On the contrary, I'm beginning to believe Trump will destroy Hillary in November, and it won't even be close.

Anonymous Arnold Sigmanegger March 09, 2016 8:00 AM  

Trump will crush all other candidates and he's really going to do everything he says he is. I trust him. And how about the tits on Melania and Ivanka!

Blogger Shimshon March 09, 2016 8:02 AM  

@46 It's absurd listening to these types (and I have seen a bit of gnashing of keys) whining that Hillary will make mincemeat out of Trump. That's 100% propaganda and nothing more. I get it that the left buys in to the assumption. Because they have a 100% failure rate on Know Your Enemy. Cucks and mainstream Repubs should know better but don't. The idea that there's some big absolutely YUGE bit of extremely scatological laundry that Hillary is sitting on to take him down after the nomination is absurd. There is no question if such existed, the GOPe would've dredged it up long ago. I mean, this is a woman with whale-sized skeletons in her own closet. Trump's are more rodent-sized by comparison.

Blogger Gaiseric March 09, 2016 8:15 AM  

Bobby Farr wrote:But Trump won overwhelmingly in NV, where 1/4th the vote was Mormon in 2012. Hard to believe Romney's speech would have caused such a swing in Cruz's favor in ID.
Mormons are as likely to be tribal as anyone else. The excitement four years ago was pretty palpable, and it had nothing to do with any of Romney's merits, and everything to do with the fact that he was "one of our own."

Of course, the same attitude does not apply to Harry Reid.

I think, rather, that Idaho was more likely to favor Cruz's style of hardline conservativism anyway. I've said to many people, and I think this is still accurate, that if you're any kind of conservative at all, you favor Trump if you think the biggest existential threat to our country is the invasion and the politically correct crowd-sourced police state, and you favor Cruz if you think that the biggest existential threat is unconstitutional lawlessness on the part of the executive branch. The latter group is more conservative in more ways than one; they're reluctant to abandon their attempts to fix things the traditional way through the system, by supporting a more maverick candidate who does things differently, who lacks the decorum that they expect, etc.

And if you think both are equally serious problems, then it comes down to the second question, and this is where their innate conservatism makes them less likely to be thrilled with the notion of Trump—who do you think has the wherewithal to actually make significant changes to the status quo?

I think Idaho is a harbinger of what to expect in a lot of the traditionally conservative western states: places like Nebraska, Wyoming, Utah, Montana, etc. They'll be turned off by Trump's NYC style, and they'll tend to gravitate to the type of conservatism represented by Ted Cruz. But ultimately, that won't matter, because they don't have enough delegates to change the trajectory, and they'll vote for Trump to stop Hillary, which they clearly will see as the worst of two evils.

Blogger SciVo March 09, 2016 8:16 AM  

Final delegate allocation for the night, via The Green Papers:

Idaho: Cruz 20, Trump 12. Allocated proportionally, but with a 20% cutoff that no one else made. Along with Kentucky, Maine and Texas, Cruz now has 4/8 state delegate majorities.

Hawaii: Trump 11, Cruz 7, Rubio 1. That was Rubio's only delegate of the night. They allocate proportionally but for each jurisdiction, starting with the highest vote-getter, and rounding up to the next whole number -- so Trump got 2/3 in three jurisdictions, leading to his sixth state delegate majority after Alabama, Georgia, Massachusetts, South Carolina and Tennessee.

Michigan: Trump 25, Cruz 17, Kasich 17. There was a 15% threshold and Rubio didn't make it.

Mississippi: Trump 25, Cruz 15. The four CDs were 2 to #1 and 1 to #2, with winner-take-all at 50% (which Trump broke in CD2). Then there was a 15% threshold for the statewide allocation, where Rubio and Kasich were both shut out, leaving Trump with 7/8 state delegate majorities before even reaching the winner-take-all states.

Blogger Gaiseric March 09, 2016 8:21 AM  

Watchu talkin bout Willis wrote:There is a fear among the rank and file Republicans that Trump can't win the general election, a fear perpetuated by the GOPe, Dems and media. On the contrary, I'm beginning to believe Trump will destroy Hillary in November, and it won't even be close.
I get a lot of that too from conservative friends with whom I agree on most issues. They are afraid that Trump goes down hard in the general. They also are afraid that he's a big government authoritarian. So, they don't support him now. But once the nomination is locked up, they'll vote for him. They despise Hillary and the Left much more than they despise/fear the prospect of a Trump presidency.

Blogger Timmy3 March 09, 2016 8:27 AM  

Trump is at it again. Rubio is at it again. So you're concerned about Cruz being at it again? Yawn. It doesn't matter anyways or anymore.

Anonymous VFM #6306 March 09, 2016 8:33 AM  

Idaho was closer than I thought it would be. Stop Trump was trying to get him below the cutoff, which was ambitious, but to cough up double digit delegates to him was painful.

The thing people forget is that delegates are like taking territory in a war, but placing in the percentages are like field reports going to the home front. If Trump now has a floor above 25% even in hostile states...that is good news for his side. It means a brokered convention almost certainly breaks his way AND that it isn't too likely in the first place.

Blogger SciVo March 09, 2016 8:38 AM  

RCFlyer wrote:@douchebagdeluxe - wow, that clip is amazing. Megyn had a spontaneous orgasm after being acknowledged by her Alpha.

Heh. After seven months of public negging. And he even pointed at her! I imagine that she dropped an egg on the spot.

Bobby Farr wrote:But Trump won overwhelmingly in NV, where 1/4th the vote was Mormon in 2012. Hard to believe Romney's speech would have caused such a swing in Cruz's favor in ID.

Mormons are only 4% of Nevada's population. If they all showed up, then they could easily dominate a closed caucus; but I doubt they did that this year.

Punisher wrote:I am not a sheltered person. I get out a lot. I am wholeheartedly behind Trump but I am increasingly frustrated to discover that my demographic does not correlate to the results of these primaries. It's like I'm not living in reality.

I've seen others say the same. Here's something I ran across while trying to predict the Mormon vote in Idaho: My Kids Hate Trump, and That Worries Me. Money quote:

"So what my kids’ absorbed aversion to Trump tells me is that I am raising them in precisely the kind of elite enclave that hastens the coming apart of our nation. I regret that, and I try to mitigate its effects whenever I can. But as an anxious parent, I’m unwilling to gamble with my kids’ education. And thus, like so many other elite American parents and against my own larger aspirations, I’m raising my kids in a social circle that is largely homogenous in relative wealth, education and outlook. That’s why it includes so few Trump supporters."

Blogger Marie March 09, 2016 8:39 AM  

@29

Oh, I know tons of Hillary-haters in real life. I also know a lot of the "I-don't-know-if-she-deserves-everything-that-comes-her-way-but" people who won't support her either.

A lot of my friends are quite taken back by the fact we have a black president an the worse race-relations we've ever seen in our lives. I know a lot of women who are fearful there is a chance Hillary will bring about a similar result.

I don't know that many out-right Trump supporters. I know a lot of Trump Democrats who are considering Sanders or Trump. I know a lot of Cruz supporters who will never vote D so they'll support Trump if he gets the nomination.

I honestly don't know anyone who has said they would support Hillary over Trump out of spite.

Anonymous VFM #6306 March 09, 2016 8:39 AM  

"What's that Lassie? Little Marco has fallen down a well? Golly, that's a deep subject!"

Blogger Skylark Thibedeau March 09, 2016 8:44 AM  

Dole, McCain, and Romney all pulled their punches and W benefited from the Riverine Vets who despised Kerry as a Fobbit REAMF and punched his lights out on his behalf.

I hope Hillary and Brooks know with trump it's mutually assured destruction. He will not pull his punches like a Rubio or JEB cause she is female. Everything in her closet and Bills will come out. The DOJ won't be able to deflect it and Social Media will trumpet it.

I expect Twitter and Facebook to be suspending a lot of accounts for 'harassment' come October.

Blogger SciVo March 09, 2016 8:47 AM  

VFM #6306 wrote:Idaho was closer than I thought it would be. Stop Trump was trying to get him below the cutoff, which was ambitious, but to cough up double digit delegates to him was painful.

A great example of the pitfalls of playing defense. What they should've been doing was trying to get Cruz through the 50% ceiling for winner-take-all, which he would've done with just 2/3 of Kasich's votes.

Blogger Robert What? March 09, 2016 8:47 AM  

And yet after nine months of the chattering classes being completely wrong with their predictions about Trump, they are still making their insipid predictions. Trumps continuing success is further proof that he is finished. Now don't get me wrong - there are things that concern me about Trump, not the least of which is that he wouldn't recognize the Constitution if it fell on his head. Obama on the other hand knows what it is but ignores it.

Anonymous Ryan March 09, 2016 8:51 AM  

Seeings as how the single woman demographic is yuuuge, I've wondered what percentage Trump will be able to pull in the general.

Back in the 80's, a man (Peter Holm) was on a talk show (Donahue), discussing his divorce lawsuit with actress Joan Collins.

The crowd (98% women) were in a fever pitch of hatred for the man. He had been trashed in the media for weeks, and came on the show to tell his side.

Over the next 40 minutes, he turned a crowd of several hundred screaming shrews into a mob of wet pantied, love sick teenagers.

Never seen anything like it.

I expect Trump to turn on the charm in the coming months, not only getting his share of the single mums, but blacks too.

We ain't seen the half of his charm yet.

It may be the first time in history that women's suffrage was either neutral or positive.

Go Trump.

Blogger Gaiseric March 09, 2016 8:53 AM  

Robert What? wrote:Now don't get me wrong - there are things that concern me about Trump, not the least of which is that he wouldn't recognize the Constitution if it fell on his head. Obama on the other hand knows what it is but ignores it.
Yeah, that's just not important to him. A friend of mine keeps complaining about Trump's constitutional scholarship, but given that the only President we've had in decades touted as a Constitutional scholar was Obama, that was a pretty hollow accusation. But it's a gut thing for them, so I can't argue him out of it. And I'm not interested in trying, anyway.

The best of both worlds is that Trump wins handily, but that that fear gives further wind to Greg Abbott's state-sponsored Constitutional Convention movement.

Blogger exfarmkid March 09, 2016 8:53 AM  

41. Nate "Now for the life of me I can't understand what someone who like Romney would have against someone like Trump... unless they are so superficial they are really that upset about tone."

Nate, yes, it is clear that they do hate the "Trump tone". I do not think it is the fact that Trump seems to be winning that bothers and movers and shakers, it's the *way* he is winning. If Trump wins, the "tone" is now part of the Republican political landscape, matching the Democratic "tone" which has been in place since Bill Clinton and the 1996 election.

However, I am of the opinion that few in power will find difficulty reaching deals with the pragmatic Trump if he occupies the "bully pulpit". For instance, a number of "anti border fence" people will settle for a cut of something - including a path to "save face" - and resistance will slack off.

If Trump really wants a border fence, he will be able to get it through Congress. The question is, will he? What will he offer the recalcitrants? I think that if he is elected, our first hint of his actual intentions will be if he aggressively enforces the immigration laws.

We do live in interesting times, do we not?

Blogger Marie March 09, 2016 9:06 AM  

"I expect Trump to turn on the charm in the coming months...."

I think so too.

I try very hard not to roll my eyes at the "I would never...." comments. It is like I didn't go to high school or college with them.

I have no problem admitting a lot of Trump's appeal is the fact he is an alpha. Why wouldn't I want a leader who wants to protect my home, improve our jobs and economy, and be proud of us?

Blogger tz March 09, 2016 9:09 AM  

I think Mormons on average believe in playing by the rules and are conflict adverse, so Trump's chaos isn't welcome. Mitt and Beck despise each other because they are different establishments.
aside, for Idaho and Cruz, anyone remember the beer mascot Spuds MacKenzie"?

Anonymous AT March 09, 2016 9:11 AM  

Given the perfidy of the GOPe, I'm not only voting for Trump (as a write-in if necessary), I'm also going to write-in Trump for every other office on the ballot in November rather than voting for other Republicans.

Blogger S1AL March 09, 2016 9:16 AM  

For those wondering about Idaho: the "Old West" states have a much more libertarian bent to them - the Dakotas, Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, Utah, etc. Trump looks like a loud-mouth coastal authoritarian to most of the residents in those areas, so they'll vote for Cruz instead.

Blogger Marie March 09, 2016 9:22 AM  

@ 66

So, you are saying the South will vote for a Yankee before the libertarians will back a winner?

Blogger S1AL March 09, 2016 9:27 AM  

The South gave us Clinton, two Bushes, and Carter. Thanks, guys.

Blogger Student in Blue March 09, 2016 9:31 AM  

@67

Doesn't seem too far off.

Blogger Matt Edwards March 09, 2016 9:38 AM  

Of course it matters if Rubio drops out, because there are far more states than just FL in play. Rubio got double digit support in Idaho last night, even considering the condition his campaign is in.
If Rubio drops out, I would guess 75% of his voters go to Cruz. If that happens, Trump will have a hard time winning ANY Western states, assuming he doesn't reach 1237 by the end of the Northeastern primaries.

Anonymous Just Sayin' March 09, 2016 9:39 AM  

You guys should check out Agnostic's blog for an interesting East vs West (Midwest) take on what determines Cruz territory vs Trump territory.

I haven't seen anyone else hitting on the points he brings up.

Anonymous That Would Be Telling March 09, 2016 9:39 AM  

@68 S1AL:

The South gave us Clinton, two Bushes, and Carter. Thanks, guys.

Don't forget Wilson and LBJ.

Blogger ZhukovG March 09, 2016 9:41 AM  

We also gave the country Woodrow Wilson, who was a worse disaster than Clinton, two Bushes and Carter combined.

Anonymous #8601 Jean Valjean March 09, 2016 9:44 AM  

First he will take Florida and then the White House.

Anonymous bgkb March 09, 2016 9:49 AM  

someone who like Romney would have against someone like Trump... unless they are so superficial they are really that upset about tone.

Trump insulted people that fudge/finagle numbers for a living.

Blogger Matt Edwards March 09, 2016 9:49 AM  

2. Samuel Nock March 09, 2016 3:30 AM
Trump should be able to convert many of the Sanders voters in the general election against Hillary.
I think you vastly overestimate the neutrality and reasonable-ness of Sanders voters. They won't be persuaded by argument, and they think Trump is either a joke or a fascist.
I would guess there's 5% crossover, max.

Blogger Matt Edwards March 09, 2016 9:56 AM  

8. Bobby Farr March 09, 2016 5:00 AM
Idaho is interesting since it is the first time Cruz has one in a state that wasn't either a closed caucus or his home turf (TX, OK). Does he have some sort of regional strength or is ID a likely outlier for the West?

My feel of TX is that it sits between the South, the West, and the Midwest and can draw allegiance from all regions. Cruz speaks to the independent streak of the West, along with the cowboy nature of TX (at least, moreso than any other candidate). On top of the attitude, he's anti-establishment.
Trump is a Northeast/East guy by comparison, and that doesn't impress Westerners. The exceptions have already voted: NV and HI (casinos and real estate). CA is not NY, and won't translate.

Blogger Matt Edwards March 09, 2016 10:08 AM  

15. Steve March 09, 2016 5:24 AM
Mormons seem to hate Trump. It's not just Glenn Beck and Mitt Romney, but also the LDS leadership crying "muh ruligus freedums!"* over Trump's plan to keep goat botherers out of the US.

*Catholic and some Protestant denominations have said the same, but most Catholics don't care what bishops have to say about politics, and Trump's got enough Evangelical air cover to more than offset the anti-Trump noise from Episcopalians and whatnot.


I think analyzing this cycle through the lens of religion is a mistake. I don't think there are many people this year voting *primarily* on religious affiliation. Otherwise, Cruz would've run away with the South.

Western states vote for Cruz because of class membership: Cruz is from TX, and so he's "one of us." Trump is a New Yorker. Kasich is a Midwesterner. Rubio is from Florida.
Texas is cowboys, which a lot of the Western states authentically are too. That, in conjunction with Cruz' anti-establishmentarianism makes him the better choice over Trump for the Western vote.

The only two states that I think he *might* have a problem winning are OR and NM, but he might win even those.

Blogger Matt Edwards March 09, 2016 10:12 AM  

23. Napoleon 12pdr March 09, 2016 6:42 AM
If the GOPe wants to stop Trump, they need to take Rubio and Kasich out ASAP. Cruz is the only viable alternative.
And if they *don't* want to stop Trump, they'll allow the Rubio/Kasich shitshow to continue indefinitely. If neither/both drop out after the drubbing they'll receive on the 15th, you'll know the fix is in for Trump.

Blogger Matt Edwards March 09, 2016 10:14 AM  

er, should've just said "If neither one drops out..."

Blogger S1AL March 09, 2016 10:15 AM  

OR isn't "West" anymore. It's all hippies and lattes and skinny jeans. Well, it is in Portland and Eugene. The rest of the state is actually really conservative and fairly country, but it's like a 60/40 split now. My guess would be, assuming Rubio is still in, 40/35/10/5 T/C/R/K.

Anonymous A Visitor March 09, 2016 10:17 AM  

@29

Save your family, it sounds like you're in Annapolis. There's the problem right there. Here in suburban Indianapolis, there are Trump supporters. Oh yes. I would imagine down in College Station there's actually a split of support between Cruz and Trump. As far as the high Mojave desert, I have no clue...probably Trump if my neighbors (most of whom were Army at Fort Irwin) are a standard metric.

"Its not a huge chunk... but you have to remember there is a segment that genuinely likes guys like Romney and Dole."

@41 I've heard people wax about how Romney would have made a good president. *snorts* Besides the market, he was the same as Obama in nearly everything.

@48 I almost hope she gets the nomination just so he can wipe the floor with her during the debates and then the FBI decides to indict in October (although I've heard May is a more realistic timeline).

"I hope Hillary and Brooks know with trump it's mutually assured destruction. He will not pull his punches like a Rubio or JEB cause she is female. Everything in her closet and Bills will come out. The DOJ won't be able to deflect it and Social Media will trumpet it."

@57 It'll be like...a splendid strategic first strike by the Soviet Union...only to realize that the U.S. already launched its birds...

@65

That's gonna be YUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE!

Anonymous A Visitor March 09, 2016 10:18 AM  

Ah nuts. I mean probably Cruz for the guys at Fort Irwin.

Anonymous Punisher March 09, 2016 10:21 AM  

@22 Rantor,

I teach at the Naval Academy...which means I must tread political grounds VERY lightly. It's a breeding ground for SJW attacks.

Anonymous 11B March 09, 2016 10:32 AM  

Trump will be helped out in Missouri with the news of the illegal Mexican murdering 5 people overnight.

Blogger James Dixon March 09, 2016 10:51 AM  

> 2) VD is self-identified Italian

That would be incorrect. Vox is a self-identified American living in Italy. He doesn't even pretend to be Italian.

> So, you are saying the South will vote for a Yankee before the libertarians will back a winner?

Sounds par for the course, doesn't it?

> The South gave us Clinton, two Bushes, and Carter. Thanks, guys.

At least they had the sense not to give us Gore.

> I would guess there's 5% crossover, max.

As long as the rest decide to stay home, that will be enough. Bernie is going to wind up with a good third of the vote, possibly more. Hillary can't win without those voters. She probably can't win if even half of them stay home.

Anonymous Alexander March 09, 2016 10:51 AM  

@66

Master plan.

1: Get them out of our states and into yours.

2: Let the nation as a whole enjoy their presence until Yankees decide it's not worth putting up with us.

Brilliant!

Blogger Matt Edwards March 09, 2016 11:08 AM  

32. That Would Be Telling March 09, 2016 7:12 AM
A lot of Idaho cuckservatives absolutely loathe the state's reputation as a haven for white supremacists and it's entirely likely they'd crawl across broken glass to vote against Trump.

I know, right? Why would anyone want to distance themselves from neo-Nazis?

Anonymous Kentucky koolaide Killer March 09, 2016 11:11 AM  

I'm ready to start rounding "them" up

Blogger Matt Edwards March 09, 2016 11:13 AM  

40. Nate March 09, 2016 7:31 AM
Now for the life of me I can't understand what someone who like Romney would have against someone like Trump... unless they are so superficial they are really that upset about tone.

Because Trump is the other. The other is different from you, and since you like yourself and think you're a good person, the other is automatically suspicious. If the other were a good person, they would be just like you.

Yes, this is circular logic. But whoever said people were rational?

Blogger W.LindsayWheeler March 09, 2016 11:16 AM  

To Help get Trump elected, please pass out the following links on the Natural Born clause in the Constitution. For all the rhetoric that Cruz is Natural Born, is not based on fact or law. Just today, Jonah Goldberg is talking about getting Rubio and Cruz together on a single ticket to crush the Trump. It is his Hispanic Cuban Dream ticket. This has got to stop.

John Roland, Constitution Society
http://www.constitution.org/abus/pres_elig.htm

Examiner, Cruz not citizen at birth.
http://www.examiner.com/article/proof-that-ted-cruz-did-not-become-a-us-citizen-at-birth

Dr. Swier
http://drrichswier.com/2016/02/07/ted-cruz-is-not-a-legal-u-s-citizen-at-all/

Selwyn Duke, Lawyer, philosopher & logician. Strict constructionist of the U.S. Constitution.
https://publiushuldah.wordpress.com/2016/02/11/natural-born-citizen-and-naturalized-citizen-explained/

JB Williams
http://www.capitolhilloutsider.com/ted-cruz-is-not-a-legal-u-s-citizen-at-all/

Leo Donofrio, Esq.
https://naturalborncitizen.wordpress.com/2012/01/27/the-dirty-little-secret-of-the-natural-born-citizen-clause-revealed/

New American, John Birch Society, On Natural Born status
http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/constitution/item/22433-congressional-report-examines-cruzs-natural-born-citizen-status

Copy and post everywhere. The Republican Party doesn't give one rat's ass about the Constitution. They are all globalists. If we are to save this country, both Cruz and Rubio have to be exposed.

Blogger Matt Edwards March 09, 2016 11:16 AM  

45. Watchu talkin bout Willis March 09, 2016 7:54 AM
There is a fear among the rank and file Republicans that Trump can't win the general election, a fear perpetuated by the GOPe, Dems and media. On the contrary, I'm beginning to believe Trump will destroy Hillary in November, and it won't even be close.

The polls that Trump likes to quote CONSISTENTLY show him losing to Hillary. You can't have it both ways: either the polls are believable or they aren't.

Blogger W.LindsayWheeler March 09, 2016 11:20 AM  

Nate wrote:")
Now for the life of me I can't understand what someone who like Romney would have against someone like Trump... unless they are so superficial they are really that upset about tone.


Why Romney is against Trump is the same thing that Nelson Rockefeller was against Barry Goldwater; the same reason the media and the Repuke establishment hated Pat Buchanan!

Nelson Rockefeller denounces Republican "extremists" at the 1964 Republican National Convention George Romney, Mitt's father also denounced Goldwater! Why? They are globalists that's why. Trump is the first one to start protecting us WASPs! George Romney liked and paled around with Saul Alinsky!

OpenID sigbouncer March 09, 2016 11:23 AM  

"The only two states that I think he *might* have a problem winning are OR and NM, but he might win even those."

Trump will win big in Oregon. Clinton will lose to Sanders in Oregon.

Blogger Artisanal Toad March 09, 2016 11:26 AM  

@82 I teach at the Prick Factory...which means I must tread political grounds VERY lightly. It's a breeding ground for SJW attacks.

Fixed that for you, but otherwise the observation is correct.

Blogger Matt Edwards March 09, 2016 11:27 AM  

79. S1AL March 09, 2016 10:15 AM
OR isn't "West" anymore. It's all hippies and lattes and skinny jeans. Well, it is in Portland and Eugene. The rest of the state is actually really conservative and fairly country, but it's like a 60/40 split now. My guess would be, assuming Rubio is still in, 40/35/10/5 T/C/R/K.

I agree generally with what you're saying (I lived in OR up until 3 years ago). But remember that we're not talking about the general election yet, we're talking about the Republican primaries, and Portland doesn't have a say in that. It'll be the eastern 2/3rds of OR that decides the GOP primary.

Anonymous Alexander March 09, 2016 11:27 AM  

@89

Passing around pamphlets about Cruz's natural birth is idiotic.

1: The vast majority of voters don't give a shit, and will not be persuaded and so it is a waste of a very valuable resource: one's time.

2: We are already crushing Cruz. At this point, trying to argue his citizenship status actually hurts Trump, because it make him look like he needs to win on a technical point, when in fact he is already crushing on both the strategic and moral level.

In short, your idea is to waste valuable resources in order to undermine our greatest strengths.

I agree with you, by the way, that a natural born citizen should be the strictest possible interpretation, especially for the presidential office. But maybe you should take a step back and actually think about the how good dialectic can be terrible rhetoric, and how winning a point with a particular tactic can in fact weaken your strategic position.

Anonymous Watchu talkin bout Willis March 09, 2016 11:27 AM  

Matt Edwards wrote:45. Watchu talkin bout Willis March 09, 2016 7:54 AM

There is a fear among the rank and file Republicans that Trump can't win the general election, a fear perpetuated by the GOPe, Dems and media. On the contrary, I'm beginning to believe Trump will destroy Hillary in November, and it won't even be close.

The polls that Trump likes to quote CONSISTENTLY show him losing to Hillary. You can't have it both ways: either the polls are believable or they aren't.


Are you still talking?

Blogger FALPhil March 09, 2016 11:29 AM  

@70
Don't forget Wilson and LBJ.

We are still fucking you for Reconstruction, you damned carpetbaggers!

OpenID sigbouncer March 09, 2016 11:30 AM  

"The polls that Trump likes to quote CONSISTENTLY show him losing to Hillary. You can't have it both ways: either the polls are believable or they aren't."

1) Polls aren't believable.

2) Polls taken before VP selections are made = even less believable.

3) The best predictor of US Presidents gives Trump a 97-99% chance of winning

http://dailycaller.com/2016/02/24/political-science-professor-odds-of-president-trump-range-between-97-and-99/

Blogger Matt Edwards March 09, 2016 11:35 AM  

92. sigbouncer March 09, 2016 11:23 AM
"The only two states that I think he *might* have a problem winning are OR and NM, but he might win even those."

Trump will win big in Oregon. Clinton will lose to Sanders in Oregon.


I was talking about Cruz. *Cruz* may win OR and NM.
My reservations are this: I don't have a feel for eastern OR, but from what I've heard they are not different than the rest of the West. If that's true, Cruz will win.
New Mexico is a different kettle of fish, as it's a blue state with low population (i.e. statistical outlier), and a border state that may resent Trump/Cruz anti-open borders policies.
If so, NM would probably go Rubio.

Anonymous That Would Be Telling March 09, 2016 11:35 AM  

@86 Matt Edwards:

@32. That Would Be Telling

A lot of Idaho cuckservatives absolutely loathe the state's reputation as a haven for white supremacists and it's entirely likely they'd crawl across broken glass to vote against Trump.


I know, right? Why would anyone want to distance themselves from neo-Nazis?


Perhaps, but when they take it so far as to arrest and charge a man who's wife was physically assaulted by an African soccer coach, who they spirited out of town, just because in the heat of the aftermath he used some icky words, they take it into indefensible cuckservative land.

And there are many more examples of this sort of aggression towards whites, and, for example, people who simply don't want to have anything to do with "gay weddings" by the ostensible conservatives who run Idaho, for it and they to be held in anything but contempt, and for the wise to stay the hell out of the state.

Anonymous A Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents March 09, 2016 11:36 AM  

Marie
Oh, I know tons of Hillary-haters in real life. I also know a lot of the "I-don't-know-if-she-deserves-everything-that-comes-her-way-but" people who won't support her either.

Those people would mostly be women. When it's voting day and they have to choose between Post-Menopausal Rodan Cacklepants and Trump, I wonder what they will do? "Vote for me because vagina" gets stale after a while, doesn't it?

A lot of my friends are quite taken back by the fact we have a black president an the worse race-relations we've ever seen in our lives.

Those friends must all be under 35, then.

I know a lot of women who are fearful there is a chance Hillary will bring about a similar result.

Heh. The similar result is pretty much baked in the cake after 40 years of moar feminism.

I don't know that many out-right Trump supporters.

Wonder how many closeted Trump supporters you know? More than you think, I suspect.

I know a lot of Trump Democrats who are considering Sanders or Trump. I know a lot of Cruz supporters who will never vote D so they'll support Trump if he gets the nomination.

Agree on that.

Blogger Matt Edwards March 09, 2016 11:37 AM  

96. Watchu talkin bout Willis
Are you still deflecting?

Blogger Matt Edwards March 09, 2016 11:40 AM  

98. sigbouncer
1) If polls aren't believable, then I don't have to pay attention to Trump's bullshit about how he's doing so well in polls.
3) You want me to replace the unbelievable polls with the word of an (i.e. ONE) academic? Um, no thanks.

Blogger bob k. mando March 09, 2016 11:44 AM  

7. rho March 09, 2016 4:55 AM
It's not like I made this up.



it's not asserting the obvious which makes you a fucking idiot.

presuming to have the authority that you could tell anyone on the internet to shut up is what makes you a fucking idiot.



12. SteelPalm March 09, 2016 5:09 AM
don't you respect that Cruz is willing to fight at least a bit dirty to win?



fool me once, shame on you. if i let you fool me again?

this is not the first time Cruz' campaign has played this game.

what is the game? pretending to believe that reporters aren't lying.

there is a simple, VERY SIMPLE, solution for Cruz staffers:
IF they see a news story that indicates a competing campaign is looking to exit
THEN call the other candidate, note the propensity reporters have to lie, and ask the HIS official opinion.

repeating lies which YOU know to be lies, from proven liars, means that YOU are a liar.

hello, Ted Cruz, who claims that he respects the Constitution ... and it's Natural Born Citizen requirement.

Anonymous A Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents March 09, 2016 11:47 AM  

Wheeler
Why Romney is against Trump is the same thing that Nelson Rockefeller was against Barry Goldwater; the same reason the media and the Repuke establishment hated Pat Buchanan!

Nelson is dead, Barry is dead, that past is a foreign country, and Pat is out to pasture.

Remember when you were a kid? Remember when the old folks kept going on and on and on about Eisenhower, or more likely FDR? Did you care even one bit? That's what this "Nelson Rockefeller" stuff reads like.

Wheeler, look at your calendar: what century does it say?

Anonymous Punisher March 09, 2016 11:51 AM  

@93 Artisanal Toad

I am not going to disagree with your modification...at least nowadays.

Blogger SciVo March 09, 2016 11:53 AM  

Why Romney doesn't like Trump is overdetermined, but I think one part of it is the conflict between financial capitalists (who produce paper value) and industrial capitalists (who produce concrete value). One of the problems with That Face is that she destroyed concrete value in the quest of making numbers bigger on paper, as financial capitalists often do.

Their world views are irreconcilable, as each believes that his thing (paper value or concrete value) is what's primary, and the other a mere reflection of it.

Anonymous W. Lindsay Wheeler March 09, 2016 12:07 PM  

Paradigm worth more than two cents, "Nelson is dead." Barry is dead.

Duh. But what they and us are fighting STILL EXISTS! The same Argument still exists. Yes, the Participants are dead--but the argument still remains--The Globalists are still here recreating Babelism. History gives context, perspective and understanding. History is important! It teaches and is a greater argument against globalism because it shows that it is the argument that crused Goldwater's hopes of election!

Anonymous Watchu talkin bout Willis March 09, 2016 12:08 PM  

Matt Edwards wrote:96. Watchu talkin bout Willis

Are you still deflecting?


You don't like Trump. We get it.

Anonymous A Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents March 09, 2016 12:12 PM  

Wheeler, your history lessons are a tedious mix of flat rhetoric and incomplete dialectic.

But moar exclamation points will make your reminiscing moar truthy I'm sure, and will grab the attention of any Millennial here.

Moar exclamation points!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Anonymous A Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents March 09, 2016 12:13 PM  

You don't like Trump. We get it.

Plus, We Don't Care.

Blogger SciVo March 09, 2016 12:21 PM  

Matt Edwards wrote:My reservations are this: I don't have a feel for eastern OR, but from what I've heard they are not different than the rest of the West. If that's true, Cruz will win.

I've been all over the state. I would say that the big-city Republicans are secular businessmen, and the country Republicans are nearly as patriotic to the USA as they are to the CSA. I think that Trump will do well here -- and presumably Washington too, since they normally vote similar to each other.

Portland, Bend and Eugene will probably vote Sanders in the primary; Clinton will get Salem. And they would all vote for Kang (D) before they would vote for a human Republican.

Blogger jmarinara March 09, 2016 12:52 PM  

This whole "Cruz lied because some campaign staffer read the news put out by an incompetent reporter" thing is tired.

Get a grip, people.

Blogger James Dixon March 09, 2016 12:55 PM  

> The polls that Trump likes to quote CONSISTENTLY show him losing to Hillary. You can't have it both ways: either the polls are believable or they aren't.

In general, the polls aren't believable. They're merely the best thing we have. Ask Hillary about the polls in Michigan.

Anonymous W. Lindsay Wheeler March 09, 2016 12:58 PM  

Dear Paradigm. Nate asked a simple question. And I answered it.

Nate ASKS: "Now for the life of me I can't understand". Nate says he doesn't understand. Paradigm, now, minus two cents, to further the understanding one's fellow traveller one talks to him as a friend. Dialectism/rhetoric has no place here. Rhetoric is used in the political sphere when you want to convince other people. Rhetoric is not used with friends.

Just because someone found rhetoric doesn't mean it is applied across the board to everything! Rhetoric has its place. Rhetoric is used in the public sphere to further one's agenda. One doesn't use rhetoric against a friend who asks to understand a situation. Education in History affords the possiblity for spreading enlightenment and clearing up mispreceptions. And I will use as many GD !!!! Because Paradigm missig commonsense, I want to.

Blogger Gaiseric March 09, 2016 12:59 PM  

jmarinara wrote:This whole "Cruz lied because some campaign staffer read the news put out by an incompetent reporter" thing is tired.

Get a grip, people.

Well, maybe he should quit doing it.

Although in this case, the reporter was considerably more believable than the Lubio campaign's claims.

Anonymous A Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents March 09, 2016 1:01 PM  

Sure, grandpa, tell us all again about Nelson Rockefeller.

Wait, I have to run out to the kitchen for some more Ovlatine.

Be right back. Promise. Wouldn't want to miss a word.

Blogger Were-Puppy March 09, 2016 1:01 PM  

@22 douchebagdeluxe
The woman is glowing with inner joy and excitement.
---

This entire time she has been angling for another spanking by the Trump Daddy

Blogger Were-Puppy March 09, 2016 1:03 PM  

@23 Napoleon 12pdr

If the GOPe wants to stop Trump, they need to take Rubio and Kasich out ASAP. Cruz is the only viable alternative.
---

Their only hope now is to send Linda Graham, John McCuck, Narco Lubio, Senor Jebster, Small Mittens, Treyvon Gowdy, and Paul Ryno back in time to turn the entire nation into Cuckservatives before this election.

Wait, maybe that's what has already happened :P

Blogger Matamoros March 09, 2016 1:12 PM  

#9

Here you go. This explains what is going on in Idaho and other states to inflate Cruz's numbers by stealing Trump's votes.

http://lamecherry.blogspot.com/2016/03/proof-of-ted-cruz-vote-fraud-in-kansas.html

Blogger Were-Puppy March 09, 2016 1:14 PM  

@50 Timmy3
Trump is at it again. Rubio is at it again. So you're concerned about Cruz being at it again? Yawn. It doesn't matter anyways or anymore.
---

What difference, at this point, does it make?
--- Timlery Clinton

Blogger Were-Puppy March 09, 2016 1:21 PM  

@62 tz

anyone remember the beer mascot Spuds MacKenzie"?
---

I thought Spuds dumped them and became the Target dog?

Blogger haus frau March 09, 2016 1:21 PM  

I'm an or pcp. A general run down then. The libertarian leaning pcps and a significant part of the main stream Republican pcps are supportive of trump. There is a huge cruz element in the mainstream pcp group that are very hostile to trump but they will fall in line when faced with hill-billy. The Ron Paul people who got into party office for the 2012 election are generally of the burn it all down mindset and so are very amused by trump. He is the only natural born citizen running on our side and is not connected like cruz to establishment groups like cfr. A few say they will write in rand paul. Most will go trump. Overall I would predict trump will win but it will be close. I'm not familiar with republican culture in the eastern half of the state.

Blogger Were-Puppy March 09, 2016 1:25 PM  

@71 ZhukovG

We also gave the country Woodrow Wilson, who was a worse disaster than Clinton, two Bushes and Carter combined.
---

Consider it partial revenge for being invaded and absorbed by the Union.

Blogger Were-Puppy March 09, 2016 1:27 PM  

@74 Matt Edwards
I would guess there's 5% crossover, max.
---

A lot of those Burnouts are anti Shrillary. They are in an inept way trying to hoist a 2 finger salute to the Dems and Clintons. Those will go for Trump if it will put the Hildebeast out to pasture once and for all.

Blogger Were-Puppy March 09, 2016 1:29 PM  

@75 Matt Edwards

Cruz speaks to the independent streak of the West, along with the cowboy nature of TX
--

OH yeah, I forgot about that Brokeback Mountain contingent

Blogger Were-Puppy March 09, 2016 1:38 PM  

@94 Alexander

I agree with you, by the way, that a natural born citizen should be the strictest possible interpretation, especially for the presidential office. But maybe you should take a step back and actually think about the how good dialectic can be terrible rhetoric, and how winning a point with a particular tactic can in fact weaken your strategic position.
---

I agree with Wheelers point, and your point as well.
Dialectic will not work in persuasion. The best you can do is continually keep using rhetoric that brings it up.

Tundra Ted
Canadian Cruz
Cubadians
Canexicans
Snot Gobbling Senator From Canada

All of these are fun, and they bring that point across without having to go into all the details.

Blogger Were-Puppy March 09, 2016 1:39 PM  

@96 FALPhil
We are still fucking you for Reconstruction, you damned carpetbaggers!
---

The one thing Hitlery did that I found hilarious was the reverse carpetbaggery that net her a Senate seat in NY :P

Blogger Were-Puppy March 09, 2016 1:41 PM  

@97 Matt Edwards

New Mexico is a different kettle of fish, as it's a blue state with low population (i.e. statistical outlier), and a border state that may resent Trump/Cruz anti-open borders policies.
---

Cruz is against open borders? How exactly does he think they were able to sneak across the border from Canada?

Blogger Were-Puppy March 09, 2016 1:49 PM  

@111 jmarinara

This whole "Cruz lied because some campaign staffer read the news put out by an incompetent reporter" thing is tired.

Get a grip, people.
---

I would agree with you, and even consider it a pretty crafty move on Cruz part.

It's the bit where he's running around as a Super Christian that rubs people the wrong way.

Aren't those guys suppose to be honest and not lie?

And Blubberin' Beck anointed Tundra Teddy as the modern day George Washington. Seems the myth about Washington was "I cannot tell a lie".

It goes against an image he has tried to portray.

Blogger Rambam March 09, 2016 2:04 PM  

Frickin Idaho! They've been voting Hispanic since 2004 when Pedro Sanchez was elected on
W's coattails. Mucho "seasonal" work out there.
Vote for Ted and all your wildest dreams will come true!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ELBy5stH3b8

Blogger John S March 09, 2016 4:20 PM  

Tundra Ted
Canadian Cruz
Cubadians
Canexicans
Snot Gobbling Senator From Canada


I prefer "saltwater mexicans" personally...

Blogger W.LindsayWheeler March 09, 2016 4:50 PM  

Alexander wrote:@89

Passing around pamphlets about Cruz's natural birth is idiotic.

1: The vast majority of voters don't give a shit, and will not be persuaded and so it is a waste of a very valuable resource: one's time.

2: We are already crushing Cruz. At this point, trying to argue his citizenship status actually hurts Trump, because it make him look like he needs to win on a technical point, when in fact he is already crushing on both the strategic and moral level.

In short, your idea is to waste valuable resources in order to undermine our greatest strengths.

I agree with you, by the way, that a natural born citizen should be the strictest possible interpretation, especially for the presidential office. But maybe you should take a step back and actually think about the how good dialectic can be terrible rhetoric, and how winning a point with a particular tactic can in fact weaken your strategic position.


When I posted the links to the post on the Natural Born Status of Ted Cruz was NOT to convince anybody that they shouldn't be a Ted supporter. John S above in post #130 is doing rhetoric. My post was to fellow Trumpsters in order to inform them who need a BASIS IN FACT in order to build a rhetoric case upon. I posted to fellow kinsmen in the Trump campaign with facts so they can withstand rhetoric attack from the other side. Most of the time I am not a rhetorician. I'm an educator. I don't seek to change minds on the other side. My job is to train MY side in the truth. The threads here in the Ilk field are fellow travellers, fellow Ilk, friends and hostile friends. No one uses rhetoric against friends. If I was on Twitter or other social media and beating down Ted supporters, then I will use rhetoric. But on the Ilk thread, amongst fellow nationalists, its about spreading Information, facts in order to educate ourselves. Once we are educated in the Truth, then the Ilk can build Rhetoric arguments to use on Twitter, FB and other places to strike down gamma boys, Ted supporters, and leftists.

Trump HAS TO GET into Office. This is the last chance. That Trump is winning on his own---is baloney. Trump is winning because the anti-Trump forces are SPLIT three ways! Just today Jonah Goldberg was talking of Cruz and Rubio banding together on One Ticket to defeat Trump. I looked at the numbers in Michigan. If Cruz and Rubio combined--they would've defeated Trump in Michigan. Add the numbers up. It's like that everywhere! So Yes, In WAR, ---YOU USE EVERY TOOL To defeat your enemy! Every Tool. This is Life or Death situation! I'm a warrior. I use every single piece at my disposal to KILL the other. Alexander, when you say you don't win on a technicality--is that you are playing NICE. NO. We are facing Life or Death of the WASPs in America. Technicalities, Rhetoric, Bombast, Psychological Warfare, Dialectics, and anything else, are all needed to defeat all other forces than Trump! No Trump in November---well...They are going to overrun us with Illegals.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash March 09, 2016 5:43 PM  

@Lindsay
Calm down. I know it's the most importantest election EVAR, but being frantic and desperate doesn't help win it.

Blogger Were-Puppy March 09, 2016 5:50 PM  

Wonder what these 4 characters main topic of discussion will be?

https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/707645675312390144

Anonymous Shorty March 09, 2016 6:57 PM  

Lol yeah and Mr Two Corinthians is never disingenuous.

Blogger Were-Puppy March 09, 2016 8:18 PM  

This one won't work for the Cruz campaign:

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/cruz-supporter-critically-important-that-trumps-wife-posed-nude/article/2585251?custom_click=rss

Blogger Snidely Whiplash March 09, 2016 8:29 PM  

Were-Puppy wrote:critically-important-that-trumps-wife-posed-nude

I'd predict about 50% of the readers of that article will google "Malania Trump nude"

And then they'll vote Trump. Seriously, they think this hurts him? In what universe?

Blogger John S March 10, 2016 4:11 AM  

Were-Puppy wrote:critically-important-that-trumps-wife-posed-nude

I'd predict about 50% of the readers of that article will google "Malania Trump nude"

And then they'll vote Trump. Seriously, they think this hurts him? In what universe?


Melania Trump: super hot model.

Heidi Cruz: CFR member and minor vampire squid tentacle.

Compare and contrast...

Cucks think this is a favorable comparison...

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