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Wednesday, March 16, 2016

Trump: the math of victory

I'll update this with more accurate data from Missouri when it is reported. But the results of the primaries and caucuses since the last analysis have been generally favorable for Trump, and contra the media naysayers, he's in a slightly stronger position than I expected him to be after failing to pick up Ohio.

In my previous analysis, I said that Trump's minimum expected delegate count after March 15 if he took Ohio would be 750 (719 + 31 from NC) and that "he will need somewhere between 271 and 325 delegates from the 606 that remain in the winner-takes-all states." According to Real Clear Politics, his delegate count going into yesterday was 460. On top of that, yesterday he picked up:

99 Florida
52 Illinois
35 Missouri (est)
30 North Carolina
09 Northern Marianas

That brings him to 685 delegates. Now, there are 297 proportional delegates remaining to be assigned, and Trump is regularly winning about 44 percent of them. (For example, I estimated 31 for NC and his actual count was 30.) So, he can reliably count on 127 of those proportional delegates, which will bring his total to 812, 425 short of the 1,237 required for the nomination. The more he outperforms in the proportionals, and Rubio's dropout should help him there, the more room for error he will have.

But perhaps the easiest way to understand it is this: there are 606 delegates left to be won in the 12 remaining winner-takes-all states. Trump has enough leeway that he could lose California and still win the nomination outright. He needs around two-thirds of the winner-takes-all delegates, which, given the way he has won 5 of the 6 winner-takes-all contests, losing only to a sitting governor in his home state, still tends to favor him.

Labels:

157 Comments:

Blogger Shimshon March 16, 2016 6:10 AM  

Do you think Rubio dropping out changes things in a material way? Kasich's boost in Ohio seems to guarantee that the opposition continues to be split.

Anonymous Aristotle's Homeboy March 16, 2016 6:10 AM  

Are Ben Carson's 8 delegates in the count for Trump? Even a small number like that significantly increases the probability of success in this kind of situation.

Anonymous That Would Be Telling March 16, 2016 6:11 AM  

And moving from the straight math, there's analysis that Kasich winning Ohio hurts Cruz by avoiding consolidating this into a two man race while Kasich stays in the race.

Guessing about the future math, I'd expect continuing similar trends as the race remains Trump vs. Cruz vs. establishment candidate de jour, whereas a two man race could change the dynamic in ways hard to predict at this time.

Blogger JACIII March 16, 2016 6:15 AM  

Meh. Was hoping the buckeyes would choose view their governor with a jaundiced eye, but it is asking to much that the opposition be completely ineffectual. Liars, thieves, and perverts? Yes, but not completely ineffectual.

Suppose all that love for immigration had a purpose in some parts of ohio?

Anonymous Donald trump March 16, 2016 6:16 AM  

Vox, thanks for the analysis. I think that nyt tally included the florida delegates already (compare wikipedia, 538, etc.) though.

Blogger Stilicho March 16, 2016 6:21 AM  

Do you hear that keening and gnashing of teeth? It seems the Gay Moustache can add as well. Someone's going to need therapy after being triggered by Trump. Again. I expect Outlaw is enjoying the show!

On a more serious note, Ohio will encourage the GOPe to repeat the money/ad blitz in the big states remaining. They will blow every dime they can get their hands on in an effort to stop Trump. It will have some effect and may result in a few tactical victories, but overall it will strengthen the dedication of his voters and increase his support at the national level.

I watched Kasich's speech last night. The man was positively twitchy. He does not look well. I did not realize that pledging ones soul to Baelzebub, er uh, Soros, would have such obvious physical signs. Good to know.

Blogger Stilicho March 16, 2016 6:29 AM  

@jac the GOPe machine is strong in OH and Kasich IS a successful governor compared to his commie predecessor (think Bernie sanders clone). I'm disappointed as well but not overly surprised.

Anonymous 1990 March 16, 2016 6:30 AM  

"According to the New York Times, his delegate count going into yesterday was 559"

No, it was 463. And it matters a lot. Now we have

99 Florida
52 Illinois
35 Missouri (looks more like 37, 12 for winning+ 5 congressional districts)
30 North Carolina (RCP gives 29)
09 Northern Marianas

which gives a total around of 225 delegates earned yesterday and a sum of 688. It means he's behind and still needs 550 delegates.

On the other hand, after Ohio Kasich will stay in the race and become the "new Rubio" which is great news for Trump, since it almost seals the winner-take-all states for him and a solid chunk of delegates in proportional states.

Looks like Trump will get it (there are around 400 delegates for grabs just in CA, NY, NJ and PA, I can't see him not doing well there), but it's gonna be a fight until last primaries in June.

Blogger Garrett Patterson March 16, 2016 6:33 AM  

Rule 40 will be revised very soon. You will be appalled with the result.

Blogger Escoffier March 16, 2016 6:46 AM  

When we were told to choose the form of our destructor who could imagine this magnificent bastard?

Blogger Shimshon March 16, 2016 6:54 AM  

Vox, re @9's comment, do you have any speculation on this? While it is a possibility, it sounds like various elements of the GOPe are slowly making their peace with a Trump nomination (eg Koch brothers, Sheldon Adelson, etc.) and won't opt for the nuclear option.

Blogger VD March 16, 2016 6:54 AM  

Vox, thanks for the analysis. I think that nyt tally included the florida delegates already (compare wikipedia, 538, etc.) though.

I should have known better than to trust those idiots to get it right. Revised, using RCP as the source for the delegate count.

It means he's behind and still needs 550 delegates.

No, he's not behind. Femember, he's pretty much guaranteed at least 127 from the proportionals. So, he's got a solid 812, possibly as much as 833 if he can advance to 50 percent in the absence of Rubio. So, he'll need between 404 and 425 of the 606 available from the winner-takes-all states. Not a given, but quite in line with his performance to date.

Blogger VD March 16, 2016 6:55 AM  

Vox, re @9's comment, do you have any speculation on this?

None at all. I have no idea.

Anonymous meh March 16, 2016 6:56 AM  

09 Northern Marianas

After Trump is President we rename the Marianas Trench the Marianas Trump.

Blogger peter blandings March 16, 2016 7:00 AM  

the RNC stole ohio. kasich has not won a single primary, hasn't even broken out of single digits, and yet tonight he gets 45% of the vote and beats trump by 10? especially after the things he's said re: illegals? no fuckin' way. i don't care if he's the governor, i don't care if it's his home state. florida is rubio's home state and he lost by 25 points to trump. and florida is crammed with rubio's people. the ohio primary was a fraud just as sure as susan b. anthony was the ugliest woman to ever be put on a coin. i wouldn't be optimistic going forward. it looks like you have been right on hillary all along, Vox. a little early, but ultimately right. there's no reason to waste any more time doing math and counting delegates. this is shameful; the founders are spinning in their graves. this swindle buys the cucks time to do more rigging. nausea inducing pigs.

OpenID aew51183 March 16, 2016 7:01 AM  

The GOPe is getting what they want regardless of whether or not Trump wins the nomination.

He stays busy fighting their smears and other republicans while their intended victor Hillary faces no sustained opposition until late June. By then Trump, known to the NORPs as neo-hitler, will have to fight a media-fostered double-digit polling lead against Hillary like Romney had to with Obama, and she'll have ready-made attack vectors provided on a silver platter thanks to the viciousness of the primary season.

This is quite ugly.

Blogger Jimmy Glover March 16, 2016 7:02 AM  

The GOP is openly angling for a brokered convention. Even Paul Ryan is talking about getting in at that case.

It is absolutely clear from the Kasich campaign that they would prefer Hillary to Trump.

Anonymous Bobby Farr March 16, 2016 7:05 AM  

I'm not seeing any significant states remaining that Trump is likely to lose. Cruz may be able to pull enough religo-cucks to win a Western state or two and maybe Kasich gets one rust belt surprise win (he may not even be on the ballot in PA) but that seems to be the worst case scenario. Yesterday's results highlighted that Cruz and Kasich get obliterated outside of regions favoring their target demos.

Blogger Nate March 16, 2016 7:06 AM  

In any other year this race would be a foregone conclusion and the no one would even be discussing the possibility of anything but a Trump nomination.

OpenID aew51183 March 16, 2016 7:10 AM  

Next winner take all state is AZ, which has no current polling.
I can already picture a mad rush to see where this state stands with the lack of a decisive victory here.

Blogger Alexander Wehr March 16, 2016 7:13 AM  

UT, a closed caucus mormon stronghold I see that going straight to cruz the way the mormon sections of Idaho did. If cruz get's AZ as well on the 22n'd, expect a full blown "Cruz Surge" narrative from the media.

Anonymous 1990 March 16, 2016 7:20 AM  

I have an impression that it's always Trump vs. The Horde. He's alone and in the meantime his rivals campaign in one state at the time (Rubio in FL, Kasich in OH, Cruz in MO), making the run difficult without bilocation skills. When he has time to prepare (like in NH, SC, NV) and there's no horde factor, he's doing just fine, so I'm optimistic about AZ.

UT with another fishy caucus (last one, together with American Samoa) looks like a state Cruz will win easily.

Anonymous Anonymous March 16, 2016 7:23 AM  

Does anyone know which of the winner take all states are closed primary versus open?

Blogger Lazarus March 16, 2016 7:33 AM  

@11 Shimshon

....it sounds like various elements of the GOPe are slowly making their peace with a Trump nomination (eg Koch brothers, Sheldon Adelson, etc.)....

From THE TIMES OF ISRAEL.COM

In hindsight, it was probably inevitable. After months in which it kept a fairly uncharacteristic nuanced distance from the Republican race for the presidential nomination, Israel Hayom, the free tabloid owned by Republican donor Sheldon Adelson and considered by many to be a mouthpiece for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has come out and all but endorsed Donald Trump on its front page.

Anonymous Miso Hawny March 16, 2016 7:42 AM  

@14 I agree. No way Kasich won by that margin. All previous polling and exit polling was within a few points either way and Trump supposedly won 'working class whites' handily. Magically Kasich way way over-performed in Columbus compared to the rest of the state. Hmm...

Blogger napari March 16, 2016 7:47 AM  

Here are some extra details that could affect the outcome. I hope copy/paste works...

Look at the notation in the RCP chart, then read the notes at the bottom.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_delegate_count.html

I'll use California as the example:

Emacs!

­ Congressional District Delegates
Congressional district delegates are allocated according to results in that district rather than statewide. The rules are the same for the at-large and congressional delegates (e.g. same floor, same ceiling, proportional or WTA, etc.) in most states.

So for the 172 votes in California, only 10 are winner take all, the rest are determined by the districts:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R-Alloc.phtml (Scroll down)

Emacs!

159 by winning districts.

Anonymous Steveo March 16, 2016 7:53 AM  

Ya know what's entirely insane? Buying the hand-picked, paid, lying porridge the GOPe have foisted on us for decades & acting like you're saving America. If you can't stop the invasion, you've got nothing to save.

Blogger Nate March 16, 2016 7:59 AM  

"the RNC stole ohio. "

See.... this is the sort of thing that worries me about Trump's Campaign. It reminds me very much of the Ron Paul Campaign in that the people inside it were extremely enthusiastic and were largely insulated... living in little social bubbles made up almost entirely of other ron paul supporters. So they vastly over estimated the campaign's actual strength and mistook enthusiasm for widespread support.

Any time he lost they would make excuses and claim it was stolen from them.

Now look at Trump's campaign. We had a whole thread about voter fraud in Texas... in Iowa... and now in Ohio.

A little advice... instead of whining about being cheated... have a little grace. You're winning damn near everything. The most likely explanation for Ohio isn't that Trump was cheated. the most likely explanation is Buckeyes are stupid and always have been.

No one is cheating Trump. If they were capable of cheating Trump... he wouldn't be winning.

Anonymous Anonymous March 16, 2016 8:09 AM  

I think what you mean is if it were anyonr but Trump. The narrative start out "who is he kidding" then "he can never actually win" to "he will blow it somehow" to "no seriously guys he can never actually win....right?" and now we are finally at "hopefully he doesnt secure the nomination and we can hijack the will of the american people".

Blogger Orville March 16, 2016 8:09 AM  

Enough with the hand wringing. Trump's 3D move is now talking past the sale as demonstrated by his speech last night. Much calmer, more presidential. Talked about all the GOPers he reached out to by phone. What you'll see him doing now is spending more time on Hillary, having assumed the sale. Hillary is as weak as hell when you consider blue dog democrats. Cuckservatives, by their very nature, will retreat to the corner of the bed while Trump has his way with the electorate.

Anonymous Quartermaster March 16, 2016 8:12 AM  

@4
I'm a bit surprised at the margin of Kasich's win in Ohio, but not the win itself. OH is a strong GOPe state. A conservative state it is not. Expecting them to give Trump a win was always a fantasy.

Anonymous Watchu talkin bout Willis March 16, 2016 8:23 AM  

Ohio was fixed. No question.

Ohio GOPe is rotten corrupt. Bob Taft, Ken Blackwell, Tom Noe, Boehner, et. al.

Ohio GOP chairman, Matt Borges, an open homosexual marriage advocate. Having seen this guy in person, not surprised by this in the least. The guy oozes cuckiness.

An "outsider" Warren Davidson wins Boehner's former seat, thanks to $1 million in outside money from Club for Growth. Beat two well-regarded candidates, Beagle and Derickson, among others.

Did not see one Kasich yard sign or bumper sticker anywhere. Trump? Everywhere.

The fraud obviously put together in the urban areas: Columbus, Cincy, Cleveland. Where these things always happen.

Blogger Student in Blue March 16, 2016 8:25 AM  

See.... this is the sort of thing that worries me about Trump's Campaign.

It shouldn't. The people jumping at shadows do not dictate how Trump will move next, they're just very, very, overly concerned.

Blogger dc.sunsets March 16, 2016 8:25 AM  

Speaking of talking past the sale, I wonder what's to be done if the Backroom Dealers at the GOP pull a stunt that flips the bird to every Trump voter.

If we were Bernie/HillBilly folks we'd go burn down a few cities, but given our decades of history of saying, "Thank you Sir, may I have another" every time we were bitch-slapped by the Left, I don't know what to plan for. No matter how satisfying it sounds to punch out the local GOP cranks who'd support such a move, self-interest still counsels restraint.

Blogger Remo - Vile Faceless Minion #99 March 16, 2016 8:27 AM  

I'm still counting on a brokered convention to "heal" the Republican party with Jeb! rising from the dead. We'll get another Clinton vs. Bush and the usual proclamation to vote in the mostest important election EVER. I just can't see the moneyed interests actually letting Trump in there as he obviously won't automatically bend over the sink for them on command.

Anonymous Weak March 16, 2016 8:30 AM  

The latest AZ Central (Phoenix's newspaper) from two weeks ago has Trump up big. But that was before all of the GOPe support for Rubio went to Cruz.

Anonymous VFM March 16, 2016 8:34 AM  

"The most likely explanation is Buckeyes are stupid and always have been."

This.

Anonymous WinstonWebb March 16, 2016 8:35 AM  

But that was before all of the GOPe support for Rubio went to Cruz.

No doubt that 4% spike will make Cruz king.

/sarc

Anonymous Woop March 16, 2016 8:35 AM  

The reason Kasich won Ohio was because their economy did very well after he was elected and the primary reason for that was because they hit oil. So people think that their life was better under Kasich. But they forgot to look at the bigger bigger that Kasich will have to outperform at the remaining states by 110% if he wants to secure a nomination.

American are REALLY stupid and I'm not even exxagerating.

Blogger dc.sunsets March 16, 2016 8:35 AM  

No one is cheating Trump. If they were capable of cheating Trump... he wouldn't be winning.

1. Distrust of the system is a central tenet of Trump supporters from all sides.
2. It may not be possible to reverse a landslide without leaving too many fingerprints. All the GOP needs to do is put enough of their thumb on the scale to force a brokered convention.

Trump's popularity is obviously a bitch-slap to the Republican Old Guard as it is the hard Left. Their counter-move is clearly jiu-jitsu at the convention and last night's GOP orgasm over Kasich's "power" (oooh, he came in first in his home state and NOWHERE ELSE!) telegraphs that he's The Man they'll install if given half a chance.

The Republican Party is clearly dying. Its flag bearers spent the last 25 years turning it into the Leftists' wingman. That was a one-way street and Trump grasped that a huge chunk of the electorate wants to dynamite the bridge behind the cucks.

Lincoln began as a Whig and from the Whigs' demise the Republican party arose. I suspect that 20 years from now neither the D's nor the R's will exist. Something much more militant is coming on both sides.

Anonymous Scintan March 16, 2016 8:37 AM  

Those of you looking for conspiracies in Ohio might want to just relax:

Perhaps the biggest late night revelation about Ohio’s Republican and Democratic primary elections yesterday, Tuesday, March 15th, was the unprecedented number of Democratic and Independent voters who crossed over to cast their ballots in the Ohio Republican primary. Exit interviews by MSNBC reporters revealed that a large number of these crossover voters wanted to stop Ohio Republicans from making Donald Trump their nominee in the upcoming presidential election. The way they accomplished this was by casting their ballots for John Kasich, the Republican governor of Ohio. There was nothing illegal about this crossover voting. Ohio laws permit it. All’s fair in love, war, and Ohio presidential primaries. But the results of it were that the Democrats and Independents had effectively prevented Republicans from nominating Trump as their candidate in next November’s presidential election. They were using Kasich as their stalking horse against the heavily favored Trump. Would Kasich have won Ohio’s primary without the support of the crossover voters who made up 35% of the voters in that primary? Since Kasich beat Trump by 11%, it appears Trump probably would have won the Ohio primary if it were not for the crossover Democratic and Independent voters.

'Twas the crossover that did it

Anonymous 11B March 16, 2016 8:42 AM  

I am very surprised at what is going on in MO. Apparently we are still awaiting all the results from Jackson County. I've never seen this part of the state take so long. It is expected during presidential elections for St Louis City to hold back and wait for the rest of the state before they release their results. But not here.

Blogger Nate March 16, 2016 8:45 AM  

"'Twas the crossover that did it"

...

wait...

I thought crossovers were supposed to be for Trump.

Anonymous 11B March 16, 2016 8:46 AM  

Exit interviews by MSNBC reporters revealed that a large number of these crossover voters wanted to stop Ohio Republicans from making Donald Trump their nominee in the upcoming presidential election.

@38 - Interesting. I wonder if Glenn Beck will cheer this? He has been complaining that up to now Trump has benefited from democrats and independents over Cruz. Now I suppose he will welcome this in Ohio.

Also, if the democrats did do this doesn't it indicate that Trump frightens them. If Trump were the train-wreck they say, you'd think the democrats would want to face him in November for the easy win. Given how they have gone full bore on stopping his rallies, and now this in Ohio, it makes me think they are afraid of him.

Anonymous 11B March 16, 2016 8:49 AM  

No one is cheating Trump. If they were capable of cheating Trump... he wouldn't be winning.

I think it results from the frustration that for Trump it is either win 1232 delegates or bust. His supporters know he has zero chance if the decision comes down to the convention on a 2nd ballot. Meanwhile the other candidates all seem to feel they have a decent chance of winning such a nomination.

Blogger Nate March 16, 2016 8:49 AM  

"2. It may not be possible to reverse a landslide without leaving too many fingerprints. All the GOP needs to do is put enough of their thumb on the scale to force a brokered convention. "

oh Lord... here we go.

Look... anyone talking about this idiotic idea of a brokered convention where some 3rd party storms in to save the day needs to take a walk and get some fresh air.

I mean ask yourself this... What have you seen in this campaign season that could possibly make you think either Ted Cruz or Donald Trump would roll over for that?

After this kind of fight... Cruz and Trump will have more respect for each other as men... not less. And the idea that after they have busted their asses for ove a year in a contest only to see it given to some schmuck that wasn't even in the ring simply will not stand.

They'd team up to stop it out of sheer rage.

Blogger lowercaseb March 16, 2016 8:51 AM  

@38. That's actually really good info. In the heart of Gamma World on the West Coast where I live, most of the progressive honestly think a Hillary vs Trump race would be a slaughter in their favor. This shows that the thinking libs are actually REALLY scared that Trump could beat Hil-dawg and are taking active steps to make sure that someone "acceptable" will get nominated.

Now the question I have for our proprietor is: Do you think this crossover tactic will be used in the remaining states, or are the buckeye libs the only Prescient-Savants?

Blogger Salt March 16, 2016 8:53 AM  

Nate wrote:to see it given to some schmuck that wasn't even in the ring simply will not stand.

The Fox pundits mentioned that last night. If the GOPe were to try and drop in a Johnny-come-lately it would destroy the party. Either throw the election towards Hillary or get behind Trump or Cruz.

Blogger Nate March 16, 2016 8:54 AM  

" His supporters know he has zero chance if the decision comes down to the convention on a 2nd ballot. "

that's not even remotely true. Look this isn't' that big a deal. if he's with 100 votes... he will cut a deal with someone like Rubio or Kasich and get the votes and be done with it. I mean of the people that have dropped out... notice that most of them have thrown their support behind Trump? That will continue because he's the front runner and he has the most to offer in return.

I mean do you trust your boy to close a deal or don't you?

I think Trump will have the numbers... but the notion that he will be more than 100 away is simply not realistic at this point.

Anonymous WinstonWebb March 16, 2016 8:56 AM  

They'd team up to stop it out of sheer rage.

What's the down side here?

Blogger VD March 16, 2016 8:57 AM  

a large number of these crossover voters wanted to stop Ohio Republicans from making Donald Trump their nominee in the upcoming presidential election

The Democrats now realize that Trump will slaughter Hillary.

Do you think this crossover tactic will be used in the remaining states, or are the buckeye libs the only Prescient-Savants?

Without question. They think they can beat Cruz, perhaps wrongly. Cruz is tougher than he looks. But they know Trump will absolutely hammer Hillary on her vulnerabilities, and she requires an opponent who will throw the election to her by sticking to the issues.

Blogger Nate March 16, 2016 8:57 AM  

"Either throw the election towards Hillary or get behind Trump or Cruz. "

the narrative that is always ignored is... large chunks of the GOP stayed home for both McCain and Romney... and in each case the GOP damn near won. Only epic late mistakes by both candidates prevented it.

The issue is... another group is going to be staying home if Trump or Cruz wins... but in this case... its the rich liberal republicans that will be staying home... and ya know what? There aren't that many of them. But the GOPe is butthurt... because this time its their turn to be left out.

Blogger Nate March 16, 2016 8:59 AM  

"What's the down side here?"

there isn't one. In fact I would argue Trump needs Cruz badly because Cruz brings a badass organization with him. He brings the advanced analytics... he brings the ground game. Trump has none of that because he hasn't need it. But there is no reason to go to war with half your guns just because you don't think you need them. In the general Trump would do very well to pick someone like Cruz who can fill those gaps.

Blogger dienw March 16, 2016 9:02 AM  

Any time he lost they would make excuses and claim it was stolen from them.

Nate's blindness is either mere foolishness or deliberate and willful; there is no other explanation.

I posted a link last night that accurately described the fraud being conducted against Trump. That blogger posted an update indicating how the system was rigged in Ohio:
UPDATE: Romney's Bain Capital connections played a dirty hand in this fraud. A company named HIG Capital owns Hart Intercivic, a vote programming system company which is being used in Ohio... and the owner (and 8 managers) of HIG Capital are all prior Bain employees. You know, Bain Capital, where Romney was CEO? Yeah. That Bain. Hart Intercivic is also used in Oregon, Idaho and Texas (particularly Harris County which went to Cruz... and interspersed in other states as well to suppress Trump's numbers; keep an eye on what happens in Orange County CA).
Is there a pattern here... hmmm...


In other states, Microsoft's programs were used to take votes away from Trump. Rigged caucuses were used elsewhere.

Even Zuckerberg has put his data-mining to work for the GOPe. From Denninger:
Consider that Social Media platforms, along with other forms of media, are no longer mass-broadcast. They are point-to-point transmitted which means that what you see is not necessarily what your neighbor sees. In fact, your neighbor probably doesn't know what you saw.

Blogger bob k. mando March 16, 2016 9:06 AM  

VD March 16, 2016 6:55 AM
None at all. I have no idea.



'Rule 40' was the last slap in the face to Ron Paul, last time around.

in the last election cycle, the GOP made a last second rule re-write that made winning a majority of delegates from 8 states the minimum bar for being allowed on the ballot at the convention.

this was done for the exclusive purpose of not allowing Paulites to influence the Platform.

it's certainly within reason to expect the GOPe to modify this rule again.

https://medium.com/delve-in/the-rule-40-horsemen-of-the-gop-apocalypse-a660d381e36e#.xs049f1oe

"Romney campaign attorney Ben Ginsburg pushed through an increased threshold on the eve of the convention to prevent Ron Paul’s name from being placed on the ballot, smoothing the path for a unanimous convention vote from Romney."


in effect, what this means is that Romney or Yeb! or whomever CANNOT even be placed on the convention ballot.

because they never won 8 states.

according to the ( current, existing ) rules, it's Trump and MAYBE Cruz. Kasich still doesn't look plausible.

chance of GOPe rule modification? near 100%.



Watchu talkin bout Willis March 16, 2016 8:23 AM
Ohio GOP chairman, Matt Borges, an open homosexual marriage advocate. Having seen this guy in person



i bet he's good friends with Dennis Hastert and John Boehner.

Anonymous anger management March 16, 2016 9:11 AM  

Those worried about Trump's supposed loss of momentum after Ohio: It's one weird fact for normal people to grasp, but you can trust in liars to be lying - you can literally plan your actions and reactions on the certainty that what they say is not true.

The media and GOPe have lied to the flyover rubes consistently for fifty years; the media and GOPe have consistently lied regarding Trump, at every step of his progress, and have consistently been proven to be lying; and, so, you can literally COUNT on reports of Trump's impending failure to be a pack of lies. VD's analysis re: Trump's chances simply applies this iron rule (SJWAL), hence the measured tone.

It's hard to internalize this if you're basically honest, and even harder to apply in the real world. Once you do, it's startling how reliable it is.

Blogger Nate March 16, 2016 9:13 AM  

"Nate's blindness is either mere foolishness or deliberate and willful; there is no other explanation."

Lets see... Trump was behind in Texas in all the polls. He lost texas. Trump was behind in Ohio in all the polls... He lost Ohio. Trump was winning Florida in all the polls... he won Florida.

Tell me... Are we noticing a pattern yet?

Blogger Student in Blue March 16, 2016 9:13 AM  

@Nate
Look... anyone talking about this idiotic idea of a brokered convention where some 3rd party storms in to save the day needs to take a walk and get some fresh air.

You give our enemies too much credit Nate. They are that stupid, because a ton of them are 'true believers'.

There's a metric ton of similarities between Hugo-clutchers and GOP establishment.

Blogger dienw March 16, 2016 9:16 AM  

@ 55. Nate
Deliberate and willful.

Anonymous Rolf March 16, 2016 9:17 AM  

Interesting.
Trump got a tad over a million votes in Florida, winning ~45% of the vote.
Hillary won a tad over a million votes in Florida, winning ~64% of the vote.

Could mean a lot of things, but it looks like a half-million more R votes were cast than D. Hmmmm.... If that holds up, that's a rather wide margin to overcome via the ordinary fraud system.

Anonymous aero March 16, 2016 9:20 AM  

who ever can make Kasich look like an economic idiot without insulting the people that might want to vote for him. Will benefit the most. Trump has already laid the ground work for this. Kasich balance budget means he will still spend money on thing that don't work or can't win just like is campaign for president. Kasich is not a conservative!

Blogger lowercaseb March 16, 2016 9:21 AM  

@43. Not that I think they could force a brokerage, but there is a way that they could do it...although it would be REALLY unpopular for the party rank and file. Please note that I am NOT a political process expert. This is all from high school civics from 30 years ago and an unhealthy amount of google-fu. Call out if I am getting any of this wrong. The party inner party workings are dirty but fascinating.

Both Cruz and Trump are REALLY disliked by the party leadership. The first thing that the group votes on in the convention is the credentials of the delegates. I really don't think there will credentialing fight like back in '72 with McGovern on the democrats side.

However, the second vote is on the rules that the convention will operate. In '76 Reagan waged a rules fight in his attempt to deny Ford the Nom. He lost, but it was a serious challenge. Mostly it was a test of the delegate strength of those at the convention who wanted to deny the front-runner a first ballot nomination.

Here is what they could do if they wanted to get petty

"Legally delegates are not bound on the first ballot until the convention votes to say they are bound. So, for instance, if delegates to the 2016 Republican convention want to be bound to the winner of the primary or caucus in their state they will vote to retain Rule 16 which says they should do exactly that. But if the delegates want to be freed up to vote for someone else they will vote to amend or delete Rule 16. And legally state laws requiring delegates to vote for the presidential candidate who won the state are inferior to party rules and unenforceable."

So they could vote to unbind and combine against Trump...but I don't see them doing that. It would be so blatant. However, I don't think they are worried about the strength of their favored candidate against Hillary. I honestly believe that the party elite would throw the election to stop Trump because they KNOW that a Trump win is a death knell to the current look and feel of the Republican party.

I'm paranoid and cynical, but I always prefered to be both and then be happily proven wrong. My gut says trump is going to pull through and get it, but I am trying to prepare for the worst.

Blogger lowercaseb March 16, 2016 9:23 AM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger exfarmkid March 16, 2016 9:24 AM  

15. "the RNC stole ohio"

You don't know that. Kasich was leading in all polls that I recall, so how is this result a surprise?

Blogger bob k. mando March 16, 2016 9:24 AM  

19. Nate March 16, 2016 7:06 AM
In any other year this race would be a foregone conclusion and the no one would even be discussing the possibility of anything but a Trump nomination.



the only reason this is a ( continued ) topic of conversation is because the GOPe is so fixated on stopping Trump.

this filters down to the media mouthpieces.

Blogger exfarmkid March 16, 2016 9:26 AM  

Nate: "In any other year this race would be a foregone conclusion and the no one would even be discussing the possibility of anything but a Trump nomination."

You have the right of it. We do live in interesting times, eh?

Blogger Nate March 16, 2016 9:27 AM  

"You give our enemies too much credit Nate. They are that stupid, because a ton of them are 'true believers'."

I don't doubt some of them are of the Never Trump bent. Doesn't matter. it will never get to that point... and if it did... the threat of it is something akin to threatening an active volcano with a Styrofoam cup.

Anonymous BGKB March 16, 2016 9:28 AM  

making their peace with a Trump nomination (eg Koch brothers, Sheldon Adelson, etc.) and won't opt for the nuclear option

Is the nuke option Mitt/Ryan or Jeb? http://www.inquisitr.com/2858500/mitt-romney-recently-filed-papers/

Magically Kasich way way over-performed in Columbus compared to the rest of the state. Hmm

I know he dumped 45,000 moslem refusegees on the state, is that where they are concentrated at?

No one is cheating Trump. If they were capable of cheating Trump... he wouldn't be winning.

The best thing this year was Bernieng in Hell telling his supporters to watch for democrat election fraud.

I thought crossovers were supposed to be for Trump.

Trannies back Cruz, leftists vote anything but Trump. http://townhall.com/tipsheet/christinerousselle/2016/03/07/caitlyn-jenner-endorses-ted-cruz-ignites-firestorm-n2129842

Blogger bob k. mando March 16, 2016 9:30 AM  

58. Rolf March 16, 2016 9:17 AM
but it looks like a half-million more R votes were cast than D.



the realize that the raw numbers are available on the internet so you don't have to guess, right?

Florida votes
R == 2,323,220
D == 1,699,689

Blogger Shimshon March 16, 2016 9:33 AM  

I'm with Nate. I followed the 2008 and 2012 RP campaigns somewhat closely. Where the shenanigans really went on was at the county and state convention levels. It was all quite visible and documented. Vote fraud in the primaries to the degree needed to throw them the way people keep griping about? I don't think so.

It's a yuge question if the broader RP coalition (which is, after all, leaderless) chooses to back Trump, and decides to stay in the delegate selection process. But if they do, that could impede attempts to negate the outcome of the primary campaign.

Blogger Josh March 16, 2016 9:34 AM  

the realize that the raw numbers are available on the internet so you don't have to guess, right?

Look man, you can't just expect people to do any research before they start typing...

Anonymous The OASF March 16, 2016 9:35 AM  

Keep in mind that Missouri was an open primary (I never knew there was such a thing, unless it done custom on a Harley Davidson) and The Donald appears to STILL have one by a hair width. The numbers are over overwhelmingly in his favor moving towards the convention and he will trend higher as the battle rages on, not lower.

It's not a mathematical lock, but it's getting darn close.

As far as a brokered convention, I don't think the GOPe Sods' will have to resort to that. First, they'll try and jam up his proposed administration and/or administration with NeoCon operatives and if that doesn't work then they'll impeach him by the end of the first term on some trumped-up (no pun intended) charge.

As Pitchfork Pat said, the GOPe Sods' are going down, but they shall mightily resist this unwanted, back-end penetration into the White House.

Blogger Josh March 16, 2016 9:36 AM  

Magically Kasich way way over-performed in Columbus compared to the rest of the state. Hmm...

You mean the state capital voted for the sitting governor?

Whoa...

Blogger exfarmkid March 16, 2016 9:36 AM  

DC.sunsets: "Speaking of talking past the sale, I wonder what's to be done if the Backroom Dealers at the GOP pull a stunt that flips the bird to every Trump voter."

Don't think that will happen. I think the convention will result in Trump winning the nomination, the mass hysteria will rise to fever pitch and lots and lots of party cross-over votes will take place on election day. Interesting times and no idea who will win in November. I do not think the RNC civil war will have ended either.

As always I recommend local involvement. It matters in the extreme who you elect as your sheriff, county commissioners, city councilmen, mayor.

Blogger Adm Trell March 16, 2016 9:37 AM  

So Kasich can't even get 50% of the vote in his own state, as a sitting governor, with our economic numbers on the rise?

Blogger The Other Robot March 16, 2016 9:40 AM  

Crybaby Boehner now backs that Cuck Paul Ryan for President.

Meanwhile, 538 says Trump has 652 delegates.

Blogger Rusty Fife March 16, 2016 9:45 AM  

Nate wrote:After this kind of fight... Cruz and Trump will have more respect for each other as men... not less. And the idea that after they have busted their asses for ove a year in a contest only to see it given to some schmuck that wasn't even in the ring simply will not stand.

They'd team up to stop it out of sheer rage.



+10,000

It's like some of these commenters have never had to fight over something.

Anonymous Millenium March 16, 2016 9:48 AM  

@41 Nate, you used to be better than this. Do you really not understand that a bunch of Hillary and Bernie voters (and I suspect more the latter than the former) voted for Kasich instead of Hillary or Bernie because they care more about stopping Trump then having their candidate win. These are not the open minded democrats and independents who will vote for Trump in the primary but the die hards who would disrupt his rally and attack his voters. That's why there was such a low turn out for the democrat vote today - half of them were voting in the republican primaries.

Why are you still shilling for Cruz? He has proven himself the establishment's bitch and while he puts on a good show to lure the idiots he folds when it actually matters. After what he did to Carson Trump lost respect for him. Cruz does not belong on SCOTUS but should be deported like every anchor baby.

I know it hurts Nate but your boy Cruz was not who you believed he was and you supported the wrong horse at the beginning. Get behind the only strong horse in the race.

Blogger dc.sunsets March 16, 2016 9:49 AM  

I haven't seen anyone note Cruz's reported "Denominist" thing.
https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=231240

Is Denninger wrong on this? HillBilly may have mapped a winning strategy against Cruz if this is real.

Kasich is a Paul Ryan clone. If Cruz is a religious nutjob, then what? It would make Trump vulnerable even if Cruz got on the ticket as VP.

Blogger praetorian March 16, 2016 9:50 AM  

In the general Trump would do very well to pick someone

Cruz should go Supreme Court. It's a great fit and he could burn more of the house down, for longer.

A trump/Cruz troll unity ticket... Feels good, man.

Anonymous aero March 16, 2016 9:51 AM  

My sixth sense! I see dead people voting for Kasich and Hillary

Blogger Nate March 16, 2016 9:51 AM  

"It's like some of these commenters have never had to fight over something."

To the contrary sir! I am reliably informed that one of them fought a two-story house in dallas!

Blogger Josh March 16, 2016 9:54 AM  

The byzantine system used by Illinois to pick delegates appears to have cost GOP front-runner Donald Trump, as two members of his slate with South Asian names ran far behind, allowing Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) and Gov. John Kasich (R-Ohio) to each net an extra vote for the Republican National Convention.

Blogger Nate March 16, 2016 9:55 AM  

"I haven't seen anyone note Cruz's reported "Denominist" thing."

dude. anyone that sells themselves as a conservative is a religious nutjob. Dubya was a religious nut job. McCain... Romney... everyone. Crazy Righty Setting Up Theocracy is a goto media theme that gets applied to every election.

Blogger dc.sunsets March 16, 2016 9:56 AM  

@72 My local GOP officials were spread evenly across the field, with my state senator promoting Kasich's "great showing" and "the only candidate with what it takes to be president" bs. He came right out and said Kasich would be "chosen" at the convention. I had no idea this guy was such a cuck. Or perhaps it's just politics.

Lincoln went into politics a Whig, emerged a Republican (and the Whigs were no more.)

Trump is a man, not a political movement. I've seen no indication that even a President Trump will remake the GOP from dog catcher to US Senator. That leads me to conclude that this election may be a watershed, but not in the typical sense.

What follows a Trump Administration won't be a Trump political party. The disaffected of today will probably be angrier, if anything.

Blogger Nate March 16, 2016 9:57 AM  

"A trump/Cruz troll unity ticket... Feels good, man. "

it makes the most sense to me. But Trump may have burned that bridge with the "ted's not eligible" thing. Pity... because no one else has an organization like Ted does... and having that organization on his side would help Trump.

Blogger exfarmkid March 16, 2016 9:58 AM  

44. Nate: "After this kind of fight... Cruz and Trump will have more respect for each other as men... not less. And the idea that after they have busted their asses for ove a year in a contest only to see it given to some schmuck that wasn't even in the ring simply will not stand.

They'd team up to stop it out of sheer rage."

Thank you. Rational analysis is always welcome.

Blogger tz March 16, 2016 9:58 AM  

Another delegate analysis

Glenn Beck is playing what-if to try to push Cruz across the line and is upset Kasich is still in. Still in denial.

Cruz won't get to 1237, at best he can stop Trump just short, but if Trump gets 1200 and is denied there will be war.

Blogger praetorian March 16, 2016 10:00 AM  

Why are you still shilling for Cruz? He has proven himself the establishment's bitch and while he puts on a good show

In any other election, we'd all be trolling for Cruz. Not as enthusiastically, but he is a far better alt right candidate than any recent nominees. There is a lot you can say bad about the guy, but, hey, he's a politician.

I am a loyal member of Der Trumpenstaffel and fully expect our dear God-Emperor to make anime real, but l don't see much advantage to tearing down Cruz.

Anonymous Millenium March 16, 2016 10:03 AM  

@75 If you fight fairly and your opponent fights dirty you don't gain any respect for him. What Cruz did to Carson was dirty. Then he blames the Chicago violence on Trump. He seems to have no positions of his own but just copies anything popular someone else says. Cruz is dishonest about his real opinions. He is on video saying he wants to increase legal immigration but remains silent now and while he was vocal against the fed he missed the vote to audit it.

Blogger Rusty Fife March 16, 2016 10:04 AM  

Nate wrote:"A trump/Cruz troll unity ticket... Feels good, man. "

it makes the most sense to me. But Trump may have burned that bridge with the "ted's not eligible" thing. Pity... because no one else has an organization like Ted does... and having that organization on his side would help Trump.


Nah, Trump will shrug his shoulders and give the same response he did during the debate; "eh, it's because he was doing better". "I had my lawyers look more into it, he's good to go".

Blogger Josh March 16, 2016 10:04 AM  

It's hilarious to see Trump fan white knighting for the magic negro

Anonymous aero March 16, 2016 10:06 AM  

Being informed is a joke nowadays. There is more BS then ever before. A lot of people can't see the truth because of the BS that is covering their eyes and plugging up the ears. And their mouth becomes a bucket full of BS

Anonymous Great Again March 16, 2016 10:06 AM  

Kasich winning Ohio is not a surprise. He was polling +5% over Trump. Then Rubio told his voters to vote Kasich so that bumped Kasich up 1-2% more. And finally, Kasich has an incredible ground game in the state and knows how to get his people to the polls. That ground game is worth a good +3-5% relative to his polling.

Anonymous Satan's Hamster March 16, 2016 10:07 AM  

"l don't see much advantage to tearing down Cruz."

Cruz's wife works for Goldman Sachs. You don't get much more Establishment than that.

Besides, even if he wins the nomination fair and square, the Republican establishment will suddenly announce that they've just realized he can't be President because he's Canadian, so, with great sadness, they're forced to nominate Bush instead.

Blogger Nate March 16, 2016 10:10 AM  

"I know it hurts Nate but your boy Cruz was not who you believed he was and you supported the wrong horse at the beginning. Get behind the only strong horse in the race."

https://www.abcmouse.com/

Anonymous Great Again March 16, 2016 10:11 AM  

The best news of the night is Trump's domination in the delegate wins in both Illinois and Missouri. The numbers are unofficial, but sources in the know say that he'll have 698 delegates when dust settles. That's 13 more than VD's estimate. Trump crushed Cruz in Missouri because Cruz only won 1, or maybe 2 congressional districts. Trump won all the rest.

For the night Trump win 231 delegates, Kasich won 83, Cruz won 46, and Rubio won 6. It was a disastrous night for Cruz.

Blogger praetorian March 16, 2016 10:11 AM  

He's a politician. This is my shocked face.

I don't see an advantage to attacking Cruz or cruz supporters. It will just alienate them and harden their opposition to trump. I have faith that trump will figure out a way to close the deal.

Blogger Michael O'Duibhir March 16, 2016 10:12 AM  

Trump speaks before AIPAC on March 21. At that time he will inform Jews that he doesn't want their money.

Blogger Nate March 16, 2016 10:14 AM  

"Cruz won't get to 1237, at best he can stop Trump just short, but if Trump gets 1200 and is denied there will be war."

eh.. as long as Trump is within 100 votes of the a majority it will be settled a month before the convention happens. he'll make a deal. That's how it works.

Anonymous Broken Arrow March 16, 2016 10:14 AM  

Cruz may not be Trump's VP, but I agree with Nate I don't see him just handing over all of his hard work to the Establishment when they ask.

He might give them to Trump just out of spite if they threaten him.

Blogger Josh March 16, 2016 10:15 AM  

Trump speaks before AIPAC on March 21. At that time he will inform Jews that he doesn't want their money.

After months in which it kept a fairly uncharacteristic nuanced distance from the Republican race for the presidential nomination, Israel Hayom, the free tabloid owned by Republican donor Sheldon Adelson and considered by many to be a mouthpiece for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has come out and all but endorsed Donald Trump on its front page.

Blogger Nate March 16, 2016 10:15 AM  

" It was a disastrous night for Cruz."

actually it wasn't. Rubio is out. In Cruz's mind that is a major step. I guarantee he looks at what happened yesterday and is fine with it.

he wants Trump 1 on 1. he likely believes he is much closer to that now.

Blogger Alex March 16, 2016 10:17 AM  

I live in Ohio and many of the friends and neighbors have told me that they voted for Kasich to "stop Trump". I've seen many of my non-political friends start posting a ton of political posts on Facebook about Kasich being the only adult in the room. I also got a mailer from the Republican party of Ohio that had Kasich as the only person shown running for president. I can understand Kasich winning, even though I think it is incredibly stupid.

Anonymous Millenium March 16, 2016 10:19 AM  

@87 I would be sitting out this election like every other were it not for Trump. Cruz is weak (or worse) on immigration, gutless on the fed, has said nothing about stopping muslims and supports the governing of America from Tel Aviv. He is also in the pocket of goldman sachs and big oil. He is another establishment cuck.

If Cruz really was the outsider you all believed he would throw his support behind Trump to avoid a brokered convention. Cruz is young enough to be president later. Instead he would rather stay in the race and try and help the establishment get their brokered convention even though he knows (if he is a true outsider) that he will not get the nomination and nor will Trump but that it will go to an establishment cuck. Further, failure for the nominee to be anyone but Trump means major number of voters sitting this election out.
Cruz's staying in the race only benefits the establishment he is supposedly against. If he can not see this then he is not as smart as everyone believes he is.

Blogger VD March 16, 2016 10:21 AM  

The numbers are unofficial, but sources in the know say that he'll have 698 delegates when dust settles. That's 13 more than VD's estimate. Trump crushed Cruz in Missouri because Cruz only won 1, or maybe 2 congressional districts. Trump won all the rest.

I suspected Trump would do better, hence 35 when they were reporting 20, but one has to be conservative when doing estimates.

Blogger Joshua Sinistar March 16, 2016 10:21 AM  

Isn't it strange that no-chance Kasich who is nowhere in the polls won his home state where he's the Guvner? Somebody who wants to make a name for themsleves should go find out how no-chance pulled off this "miracle". He's certainly way too godless a heretic to receive Divine Intervention. He might be on his way to Club Fed for voter fraud if somebody talks to some of the polling place volunteers is what I'm thinking.

Blogger Josh March 16, 2016 10:23 AM  

Isn't it strange that no-chance Kasich who is nowhere in the polls won his home state where he's the Guvner?

No.

You're an idiot.

He was beating trump in the Ohio polls for weeks.

Anonymous aero March 16, 2016 10:25 AM  

Tell the people what they want to hear then stab them in the back. This is your eSTABlishment. Look at their actions if you want to know the truth of who they really are!
They will say we are a nation of laws. However these laws are unconstitutional. So they have the legal right to stab you because you are to stupid to have any rights

Blogger James Dixon March 16, 2016 10:26 AM  

> Exit interviews by MSNBC reporters revealed that a large number of these crossover voters wanted to stop Ohio Republicans from making Donald Trump their nominee in the upcoming presidential election.

But, but, aren't we always assured that Hillary wants to run against Trump, as he's the weakest candidate. I'm so confused.

> But Trump may have burned that bridge with the "ted's not eligible" thing.

His campaign will merely say "After further review, the call on the field is overturned", and everyone will be happy. Especially Trump and Cruz.

Seriously, it's beginning to look like a lock for a Trump/Cruz ticket to me. And the combined Trump/Cruz total delegate count is less than 200 away from that happening.

Anonymous BGKB March 16, 2016 10:27 AM  

To the contrary sir! I am reliably informed that one of them fought a two-story house in dallas!

I am pretty sure he fought 2 whorey louses.

Anonymous Great Again March 16, 2016 10:32 AM  

Nate wrote:" It was a disastrous night for Cruz."

actually it wasn't. Rubio is out. In Cruz's mind that is a major step. I guarantee he looks at what happened yesterday and is fine with it.

he wants Trump 1 on 1. he likely believes he is much closer to that now.


Cruz's wish to have a head-to-head with Trump came true too late. Most of the big states remaining are in the Northeast or Northwest where Cruz has no support. Rubio dropping out will help Cruz in Utah, Montana and the Dakotas, but who cares. Cruz was going to win them anyhow.

The only state that Rubio's absence might make a difference is New Mexico and perhaps Arizona. Meanwhile, Rubio's absence will make things easier for Trump in the East. He'll get to a lot more 50% thresholds.

Anonymous That Would Be Telling March 16, 2016 10:32 AM  

@97 Michael O'Duibhir:

Trump speaks before AIPAC on March 21. At that time he will inform Jews that he doesn't want their money.

He's already told the Republican Jewish Coalition that back in December:

"You’re not going to support me because I don’t want your money. If I wanted your money, I think I’d have a damned good chance. You know the money I have turned down?"

And this gem:

"You want to control your own politicians."

Blogger Ingot9455 March 16, 2016 10:34 AM  

@97 He doesn't want the Jews' money, he gives them money. It's a match made in heaven.

Blogger Gaiseric March 16, 2016 10:36 AM  

Alex wrote:I live in Ohio and many of the friends and neighbors have told me that they voted for Kasich to "stop Trump". I've seen many of my non-political friends start posting a ton of political posts on Facebook about Kasich being the only adult in the room. I also got a mailer from the Republican party of Ohio that had Kasich as the only person shown running for president. I can understand Kasich winning, even though I think it is incredibly stupid.
Even Walter Mondale won his home state. It's just the kind of thing that happens. The fact that Rubio didn't was why his flame-out is such an embarrassment for him.

Blogger Nick S March 16, 2016 10:37 AM  

There are a lot of closed primaries coming up. Trump doesn't do so well without the crossover/moderate votes.

Blogger Ingot9455 March 16, 2016 10:38 AM  

I am totally in agreement that the Trump/Cruz ticket is magic.

I mean the Trump speech writes itself.

"I I hire the best people, and let me tell you, there is only one man out here who I would hire to be Vice President. Now, I know I've been accused of being 'high energy.' Some might even say I'm TOO high energy. Well, there's only one man on the planet who can tell me to take a deep breath and count to ten.

I called him Lyin' Ted, but damn, he fights like a lion. I need that fighter on my team." And so on.

Blogger Nate March 16, 2016 10:40 AM  

"Even Walter Mondale won his home state. It's just the kind of thing that happens. The fact that Rubio didn't was why his flame-out is such an embarrassment for him."

This.

the reason we don't bother taking the fraud complaints seriously is because there is no reason to. You look for fraud when something unexpected happens. Nothing unexpected happened.

Blogger praetorian March 16, 2016 10:41 AM  

Cruz's staying in the race only benefits the establishment he is supposedly against. If he can not see this then he is not as smart as everyone believes he is.

I don't think that is correct, but time will tell. Trump and Cruz started out practically best friends and, even when it looked like Cruz could beat him, Trumps attacks were muted. Trump was Zangief-style pile driving Rubio well past the point that it mattered anymore. Trump did go after cruz on the Carson stuff, which is fair and reflects our Dear God-Emperors genuine like of fair play and Carson, but even there he didn't beat the issue too hard.

You can only tell so much from behind your computer screen, but available evidence points to the two being on reasonable terms and viewing one another as useful allies.

Blogger Nate March 16, 2016 10:42 AM  

"I am totally in agreement that the Trump/Cruz ticket is magic."

I'm not saying Trump can't win without Cruz. I just think the organization that Ted brings to the table is far and away superior to anything anyone else has on the republican side and that is a nice tool to have in the box.

Blogger Gaiseric March 16, 2016 10:42 AM  

Great Again wrote:The only state that Rubio's absence might make a difference is New Mexico and perhaps Arizona. Meanwhile, Rubio's absence will make things easier for Trump in the East. He'll get to a lot more 50% thresholds.
According to five thirty eight, Trump is projected to have an 84% chance of winning AZ. For whatever that's worth. Cruz has a 13% chance.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/arizona-republican/

Blogger Student in Blue March 16, 2016 10:43 AM  

@Millenium
Do you really not understand that a bunch of Hillary and Bernie voters (and I suspect more the latter than the former) voted for Kasich instead of Hillary or Bernie because they care more about stopping Trump then having their candidate win.

Given how much of a meltdown Bernie supporters have been having the past couple of weeks over their delegate deficit, it is very very very unlikely they would willingly throw their votes to Kasich instead of simply voting Bernie.

Clinton voters feeling confident enough in their candidate's nomination are far more plausible as a crossover vote to Kasich.

Blogger Nate March 16, 2016 10:50 AM  

@120 dude don't waste your time. No doubt this dude also thinks that all those polls that showed Trump losing Ohio were the result of pollsters calling democrats and asking them if they were gonna vote for Kasich too.

Blogger James Dixon March 16, 2016 10:52 AM  

> Even Walter Mondale won his home state. It's just the kind of thing that happens.

Unless your name is Al Gore.

> I'm not saying Trump can't win without Cruz. I just think the organization that Ted brings to the table is far and away superior to anything anyone else has on the republican side and that is a nice tool to have in the box.

Exactly. At this point the math for a Cruz win is almost impossible, but he's the obvious VP choice for Trump.

Blogger Gaiseric March 16, 2016 10:55 AM  

James Dixon wrote:Exactly. At this point the math for a Cruz win is almost impossible, but he's the obvious VP choice for Trump.
I remember hearing briefly from some talking head on Fox—Stirewalt or Krauthammer, I think—that Cruz has specifically rejected the notion that he has any interest in being VP.

Don't know if that's legit or not, though.

Blogger Nate March 16, 2016 10:55 AM  

"Exactly. At this point the math for a Cruz win is almost impossible, but he's the obvious VP choice for Trump."

I will not hazard a guess on Ted's actual end-game goal. From my perspective it looks like he's going to walk into the convention with a crap load of delegates. And that's not a bad position to be in.

Anonymous rubberducky March 16, 2016 10:56 AM  

Nate @101 You're right, Cruz wants Trump 1-on-1, and he didn't get it. That's bad, because he doesn't have the luxury of time. Many Cruz people, and many very smart ones, were actually in the highly ironic position of hoping for a Trump victory in Ohio. The operating theory is that Cruz can win vs. Trump 1-on-1, so if Trump knocking Kasich out of the race was optimal.

Instead, Kasich is now inspired to hang around, splitting the NeverTrump vote up and diluting Cruz. They've had to deal with Carson fracturing their vote, then Rubio, now Kasich. The *only* good thing about last night for the Cruz camp is that Rubio is out. Kasich's new energy is very bad indeed from the Cruz point of view. And there's no time left to lose.

Blogger Nate March 16, 2016 10:58 AM  

" Kasich's new energy is very bad indeed from the Cruz point of view. And there's no time left to lose."

yeah.. I dunno. Everyone was poo-poo'ing K last night. All the talking heads were basically just blowing him off.

Blogger praetorian March 16, 2016 11:04 AM  

OT: Oy, vey, goy. You didn't think we were gonna let our boy appoint a christian, did you? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merrick_Garland. I'm a catholic mischling but this shit make me want to burn this motherfucker down. Assuming Sotomayor is a conversa, we'd have a nice even split 50/50 RC/Jew making decisions for The Original Protestant Nation.

Ted Cruz for Supreme Court.

Blogger Nate March 16, 2016 11:16 AM  

"Ted Cruz for Supreme Court."

Garland was the point man in the Oklahoma City bombing cover-up. Tells ya everything you need to know.

Blogger Student in Blue March 16, 2016 11:22 AM  

Garland was the point man in the Oklahoma City bombing cover-up. Tells ya everything you need to know.

Garland was nominated by Obama. Tells ya everything you need to know.

Blogger praetorian March 16, 2016 11:24 AM  

Oklahoma City bombing cover-up.

Any good links worth looking at?

Anonymous Jack Amok March 16, 2016 11:27 AM  

If you fight fairly and your opponent fights dirty you don't gain any respect for him

If you get butt-hurt when your opponent fights dirty, politics ain't the place for you. If you can't work with people who fight dirty, politics ain't the place for you. If you can't cut deals tomorrow with the guy you were hammer-and-tongs with yesterday, politics ain't the place for you.

Politicians are for the most part scum. The only thing to respect about them is their ability to win. There's a reason so many of them are lawyers, same rules apply: the only reason to tolerate them is if they can beat the other side's scum when you need it.

Trump understands lawyers. Cruz is one. They'll work it out if they need to.

Blogger Nate March 16, 2016 11:28 AM  

start here.

http://bloggerblaster.blogspot.com/2009/03/repost-oklahoma-city-bombing-it-wasnt.html

That pretty much takes the government story and brutally rapes it. As for the cover up of what actually happened.... there is a lot of info out there... but where to start on that is going to be up to you. It will mean more if you find it yourself.

Anonymous That Would Be Telling March 16, 2016 11:31 AM  

@122 James Dixon:

> Even Walter Mondale won his home state. It's just the kind of thing that happens.

Unless your name is Al Gore.


Or George McGovern, who only won D.C. and Massachusetts. However, out of politeness or whatever, Reagan didn't campaign in Mondale's home state of Minnesota, and only lost by 3,761 votes, if he wanted to completely skunk Mondale except for D.C. he could have, Mondale after all was Carter's VP.

The general point holds, it's only news when a national level candidate loses his home state. Especially with the large margin, there's no way it's credible that a sitting governor could only win his home state through cheating.

Blogger Nate March 16, 2016 11:38 AM  

"If you get butt-hurt when your opponent fights dirty, politics ain't the place for you."

Remember Trump is the guy that calls the Chinese trade negotiators "killers" one minute.. then talks about how much he likes working with them the next.

The idea that Trump will have a problem with someone fighting dirty is just silly.

Trump would likely respect someone more for fighting dirty. Because it means they want to win. And Trump likes people that like to win.

Blogger Adm Trell March 16, 2016 11:49 AM  

So Kasich can't even get 50% of the vote in his own state, as a sitting governor, with our economic numbers on the rise?

Blogger Raggededge March 16, 2016 11:52 AM  

This 50% number that keeps getting thrown around is stupid. We've had 3 solid candidates splitting the vote the whole election cycle. Kasich won his state by 10 points, just because he "only" got 45% of the vote doesn't mean it wasn't a big victory for him.

Blogger Ingot9455 March 16, 2016 11:58 AM  

If a reporter asks if you are willing to be VP you have to answer no. If you answer yes, for the rest of your short lived campaign you will be running for VP. You have to be in it to win it all the way.

That is why the Cruz campaign gave that speech about Carson not being in it to win it when he suspended his campaign for 4 days at a critical time to go to the prayer breakfast.

Blogger bob k. mando March 16, 2016 11:58 AM  

69. Josh March 16, 2016 9:34 AM
Look man, you can't just expect people to do any research before they start typing...



why do i have this sneaking suspicion that Rolf just trolled me into doing his heavy lifting for him ...

Blogger Nate March 16, 2016 12:00 PM  

"why do i have this sneaking suspicion that Rolf just trolled me into doing his heavy lifting for him ..."

because Rolf is a really smart dude?

Blogger bob k. mando March 16, 2016 12:10 PM  

139. Nate March 16, 2016 12:00 PM
because Rolf is a really smart dude?



oh, i don't know if i'd go that far.

it is pretty obvious, after all, that the spastic sperglords of the interwebs cannot permit anyone to be wrong.

https://xkcd.com/386/

Anonymous Jack Amok March 16, 2016 12:23 PM  

why do i have this sneaking suspicion that Rolf just trolled me into doing his heavy lifting for him ...

Not sure I'd call it heavy lifting - his guess was in the ballpark. Half a million is close enough to 623,531 - within the margin of the corpse-American swing vote at any rate.

Isn't Rolf a math teacher or something disreputable like that?

Blogger Michael O'Duibhir March 16, 2016 12:41 PM  

Josh said:
"...Israel Hayom, the free tabloid owned by Republican donor Sheldon Adelson and considered by many to be a mouthpiece for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has come out and all but endorsed Donald Trump on its front page."

My point exactly.

Anonymous Jimmy the Freak March 16, 2016 1:01 PM  

Nate wrote:"I know it hurts Nate but your boy Cruz was not who you believed he was and you supported the wrong horse at the beginning. Get behind the only strong horse in the race."

https://www.abcmouse.com/



Now THAT deserves a standing ovation.

Blogger Nate March 16, 2016 1:14 PM  

"Now THAT deserves a standing ovation."

Thank you sir

Blogger praetorian March 16, 2016 1:44 PM  

but where to start on that is going to be up to you.

Read your post. Convincing. Can I ask for just one more link?

Blogger SciVo March 16, 2016 2:09 PM  

Nate wrote:"'Twas the crossover that did it"

...

wait...

I thought crossovers were supposed to be for Trump.


They were. Things changed. Ohio was a unique situation -- even Rubio was telling his supporters to vote for Kasich there -- and Clinton basically has a lock on the nomination now.

Nick S wrote:There are a lot of closed primaries coming up. Trump doesn't do so well without the crossover/moderate votes.

That was true before shitlibs started crossing over just to vote against him. Now Trump might actually do worse in open primaries, since there are more Obama Democrats than Reagan Democrats, and the anarcho-tyrannical lawless groupthinkers on the left will do as they're told.

Nate wrote:"I am totally in agreement that the Trump/Cruz ticket is magic."

I'm not saying Trump can't win without Cruz. I just think the organization that Ted brings to the table is far and away superior to anything anyone else has on the republican side and that is a nice tool to have in the box.


Agreed. That's why I don't bash Cruz. Even though he won't win, he might still be on the ticket.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash March 16, 2016 2:26 PM  

rubberducky wrote:Instead, Kasich is now inspired to hang around, splitting the NeverTrump vote up and diluting Cruz. They've had to deal with Carson fracturing their vote, then Rubio, now Kasich. The *only* good thing about last night for the Cruz camp is that Rubio is out. Kasich's new energy is very bad indeed from the Cruz point of view. And there's no time left to lose.

That was the plan from the start. Shatter the Conservative and Evangelical vote between 3-4 candidates, denying Cruz the nomination. They set this primary season up specifically to deny Cruz. They NEVER expected the God-Emperor to send in his Marines and Battle-nuns, nor the Shitlord Army to rise from the internets to defeat them in every space they thought they controlled.

Blogger SciVo March 16, 2016 2:29 PM  

Millenium wrote:If Cruz really was the outsider you all believed he would throw his support behind Trump to avoid a brokered convention. Cruz is young enough to be president later. Instead he would rather stay in the race and try and help the establishment get their brokered convention even though he knows (if he is a true outsider) that he will not get the nomination and nor will Trump but that it will go to an establishment cuck.

Chill. In '08, to avoid going through the whole roll call and messy sausage-making on TV, Rodham moved for Obama to be the nominee by acclaim. Cruz can raise his national profile, get lots of airtime, and be seen on ballots in all 50 states -- all while much younger than Rodham was -- without doing the establishment any favors.

Blogger Marissa March 16, 2016 3:45 PM  

Nate, did you see A Noble Lie, about OKC? If so, what did you think?

Blogger Nate March 16, 2016 4:54 PM  

"Nate, did you see A Noble Lie, about OKC? If so, what did you think?"

I haven't. I wrote up that piece on OKC and considered my work done on the subject. Its by no means exhaustive... but I do believe it is conclusive.

Does the film go more into the why of it all? and if so which theory does it support?

Blogger Ilíon March 16, 2016 6:38 PM  

"The most likely explanation for Ohio isn't that Trump was cheated. the most likely explanation is Buckeyes are stupid and always have been."

As a Hoosier living in Ohio since 1982, I can assure you: Buckeyes frequently are stupid.

Blogger Marissa March 16, 2016 8:54 PM  

Nate, I didn't realize that was your blog when you linked earlier. I will check that out. The documentary partly reasons that domestic terrorism needed to become the new enemy and partly a proto-Patriot Act needed to be passed.

Anonymous Discard March 16, 2016 11:24 PM  

If Cruz doesn't want to be VP, a President Trump could offer him something else in exchange for his support. SCOTUS? Secretary of the Treasury? Commissioner of Tariffs for the Port of New York?

Anonymous Rolf March 17, 2016 1:48 AM  

*Chuckle* It's funny when someone corrects me to say the same thing I did, but with 38% more pedantry.

The numbers had changed recently when I posted, and were still not at 100% reporting, so I used what's often called a "round number." The tad over should have been a give-away. It was in the ballpark of a half-mil, so I called it half-mil difference. So somebody had to "correct" me by posting the current subtrahend and minuend, but neglected to actually calculate the difference, which is what I thought was interesting.

FL is now reporting 2,356,497 R votes and 1,705,400 D as I post this, so my "half million" is still just as correct as it was, and Bob's "correction" is now 100% wrong. :-)

Yeah, I teach math among other things.

Blogger Shimshon March 17, 2016 5:02 AM  

Nate, when I saw the pictures of OKC and Khobar Towers side by side, both presumably caused ANFO bombs, I knew without reading or seeing a single other thing on the subject that what actually transpired in OKC was not what the government claimed.

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