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Wednesday, March 23, 2016

Trump: the math updated

So, Arizona, which matters, went for Trump, and did so by a 23-percent margin that exceeded the +13 polls by 10 points. Utah, which doesn't matter much (I had Trump getting 17 delegates there, but he won't get any), went unanimously to Cruz. So, let's update the previous delegate math.

You may recall I originally stated this: If Trump wins Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and California, plus one state from the following list (Arizona, Missouri, Indiana, Wisconsin), he wins the nomination. Period. Nothing else matters.

Since then, he has won Florida, Missouri and Arizona, but lost Ohio. So, all he needs now, in practical terms, is Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and California. Those are the three vital states, which the latest, but mostly outdated, polls currently show:
  • Pennsylvania: Trump +17
  • New Jersey: Trump +27
  • California: Trump +16
According to Fox News, after Arizona, Trump has 739 delegates. There are 238 proportional votes to be distributed; due to his strength in New York we can safely expect Trump to win at least 126 of them. That brings him to 865, which means he will need 372 out of the remaining 539 winner-takes-all delegates, or 69 percent of them.

That is three points fewer than he needed before this week; Cruz's outperformance in Utah didn't accomplish anything because Trump's strength in New York outweighs Cruz's in Utah.

As far as states go, to mathematically close out the nomination, he'll need, at a minimum, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, California, Indiana, and one smaller state. If Cruz or Kasich can't win at least one of those four states, (and two if one of them isn't California), Trump will hit the required 1,237 delegates.

Of course, none of this takes into account the potential game-changing endorsement of Ted Cruz by Jeb Bush. You may want to consider the possibility that Cruz will withdraw from the race and join a monastery in Borneo. And, of course, the endorsement demonstrates the intrinsic falseness of the contention that the GOPe hates and fears Ted Cruz over all.

222 Comments:

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Blogger Steve Moss March 23, 2016 5:48 PM  

70. W.LindsayWheeler said "Mormonism is a Multi-Culti death cult. They really need to be pitchforked."

I disagree with this. Mormons are human, so they come in all varieties. But in general they are hard working decent people who exalt family values.

This is America. There is no requirement that one support Donald Trump if one is to be considered a good American.

I personally would be happy with Cruz or Trump in the White House, though I agree with VD that Trump looks more and more likely.

Blogger Josh (the sexiest thing here) March 23, 2016 5:52 PM  

There is no requirement that one support Donald Trump if one is to be considered a good American.

Not according to the Trumpkins.

Blogger Screen to Screed March 23, 2016 6:05 PM  

@202

Big difference between not supporting him (I can respect that) and trying to drive him out of the party on a rail, which is precisely what Cruz' proxies in the Tea Party and the establishment wing have been trying to do.

Anonymous Anonymous March 23, 2016 6:11 PM  

@201 @202

There is no requirement one support a specific candidate, but one must support the existence of America, which is something every other candidate is crowing about abrogating.

No borders, no nation.
No domestic industry, no nation.

Trump is not a candidate, btw, he's a murder weapon, a bull to be released in the china shop. Since there's no "none of the above", America has made him one. He's like a pied piper. His mere utterances cause deranged cuckservatives to drop their masks and show themselves for all the electorate to see.

Blogger Chris Mallory March 23, 2016 6:18 PM  

Sean wrote:So an entire career of Cruz's defending the constitution can be thrown away because of the desperation of the elites,

No, it is thrown away because he is a NeoCon Shill, a lover of big war, in bed with Goldman Sachs and was born in Canada. Any of those should be enough to disqualify him.

Anonymous Anonymous March 23, 2016 6:23 PM  

@205

You already posted this. See @126

Blogger Cogitans Iuvenis March 23, 2016 7:06 PM  

@200

Not to mention that you can't use past elections when looking at this one. Trump is a radical game changer. Trump is easily the least "conservative" candidate yet he leads the pack of the GOP. Then there is the whole emotional aspect to voting and it's pretty clear that Trump is miles ahead of any potential president at this point.

Anonymous Anonymous March 23, 2016 7:38 PM  

Lot of people here have no clue what they're talking about.

@10
Cite your source or shut up please. The LDS church believes the Bible to be scripture and therefore Matthew 1:18-20 apply.

@20
Exactly. Mormons tend to settle near other Mormons, get married, and start working hard. I doubt most Utah Mormons have ever had an immigrant neighbor that wasn't also a Mormon. Combine that with the general tendency to be "non-judgemental" and you get cheerful naivety about what's going to happen.

@22
The Church stopped encouraging new converts to immigrate decades ago. (Funnily enough, most of the converts that did immigrate came from European countries.) Now converts are encouraged to stay in their country of origin and grow the church there. Again, please cite your sources or shut up.

@61
Because all Mormons get money from Las Vegas casinos, right? I must have missed the memo.

@70
"Mormons don't believe in race."
That's strange, considering how insistent the Book of Mormon is about the Lamanite/Nephite split. But it's only the book that started the whole religion, surely it doesn't count.
"They really need to be pitchforked."
I doubt you would get far with that. A lot of Mormons carry.

@78
Right, don't ask Mormons if they're Masons, just ask the Masons.

@89
It's complacency and ignorance, not active undermining. Most Mormons tend to assume the best of people and don't take the time to understand why immigration on this scale is bad. I know I didn't until I found Vox Popoli.

@98
Hah, link to catholic.com to answer questions about Mormons, that seems reasonable. Calling Mormons racist for restricting the priesthood to whites for a time is like calling Jews racist because only the Levites could hold the priesthood.

@100
Missions are a big part of it. Going to a foreign country for a couple years gives you an appreciation for the people without a corresponding understanding of what can happen when those people try to immigrate en masse.

@129
God doesn't change, his people do. Was it evolution of doctrine when God told the Israelites to wander in the wilderness after the golden calf instead of heading to the promised land?

I think Trump will get most of the votes that went to Cruz in the general election. A lot of Mormons will sit it out but for most Trump is a far better choice than Hillary.

Blogger Student in Blue March 23, 2016 10:42 PM  

@Cogitans Iuvenis

I was asking just to clarify Jourdan's prediction, not to persuade him it's right or wrong.

Anonymous Anonymous March 23, 2016 11:41 PM  

@200 and @207 - Yes, even if one assumes Trump pulls in large number of European-American Democrat voters and some portion of the black bloc vote due to decent blacks who are American and nationalist, even then, the numbers simply aren't there.

He's too late. The country is already lost.

The only thing that remains to be done is for the nation to take the government out of the hand of the lawful country and its voters and supporters.

Which means, revolution. Bloody, messy revolution.

In short, 20 years ago I had thought my grandchildren would witness the Second Civil War. 10 years ago, my children. Today, I think I may just make it to see it personally.

And it's going to be fucking glorious.

Blogger Lazarus March 24, 2016 12:13 AM  

Student in Blue wrote:Oh, I know. And I pointed that out to Nate weeks ago, but he's still here banging on like it personally insulted him.

Nate and Josh are Southron Libertarian Romantics. Don't be too harsh.

Just say, "Frankly Scarlet, I don't give a damn" and be done.

Blogger Lazarus March 24, 2016 12:25 AM  

Jourdan wrote:Which means, revolution. Bloody, messy revolution.

Hang on there, cowboy. Ain't gonna happen.Debauchery and dissipation is rampant, amongst all the classes.There are none that have access to virtue. I expect more of the same, myself. It may be bloody and messy, but no damn revolution, because there are no political ideas left that work.

Blogger Were-Puppy March 24, 2016 12:45 AM  

@179 Nate
"She is literally on the CFR website as a "Task Force Member" for the North American Union."

You mean the same CFR who's president was listed by Trump as one the top guys in Foreign Policy?

The same CFR that lists other trump advisors as members?

Crazy talk.
---

Get back to me when Trump is boning a CFR stooge :P

Anonymous Some Faggot March 24, 2016 1:15 AM  

Mormons are not Christians. There is no way around that fact, shills.

Anonymous Anonymous March 24, 2016 1:23 AM  

He's too late. The country is already lost.

Probably.

And it's going to be fucking glorious.

Mmm. Probably not.

Anonymous Jack Amok March 24, 2016 2:00 AM  

I don't mind people voting for Trump. The whole "Trump Because Fuck You!" thing is fine with me.

I'll claim chairmanship of the "Trump Because Fuck You" caucus, and point out that the "Fuck You" part is far more important than the "Trump" part. Nobody - not Trump, not Cruz, not Paul, not the Ghost of George Washington - is going to lead us out of this mess. We're going to have to force our way out, and being willing to flip the table over is necessary.

For the record, I was never a Ron Paul supporter, and my main problem with Cruz isn't that he isn't Paul or Trump, but that he isn't a big enough jolt to the establishment - both sides of it. He may have several GOPes moping about, but he doesn't drive the Dem establishment batshit quite the way Trump does.

Blogger Anthony March 24, 2016 2:05 AM  

Seen on facebook:

http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/03/19/the-mask-is-officially-off-how-ted-cruz-is-funded-by-biggest-dc-insiders/comment-page-3/#comment-2286913

"Here’s a little inside baseball from someone who actually knows the truth: the GOPe dislikes Cruz NOT because he’s an outsider, but because he’s an INSIDER who decided the best way to advance himself was to bite the hand that fed him. Let’s just say I am very close to someone in the GOPe machine and I’ll leave it at that."

Then he explains...

Anonymous Bobby Farr March 24, 2016 6:01 AM  

The latest poll in WI has Cruz up by one. PA only gives 17/71 delegates to the winner. The rest are unbound. CA allocates by district. Trump will need some support of unbound delegates to get a majority barring upsets of Cruz in the northern plains and/or Montana.

Blogger James Dixon March 24, 2016 7:56 AM  

> the numbers simply aren't there.

I agree, they're not. But Trump doesn't only appeal to the normal R voters. He also appeals to independents and the working class democrats. That's why he's a better choice for the general election than Cruz. Assuming he keeps his word, of course.

> Which means, revolution. Bloody, messy revolution.

Which reminds me, my wife saw a sun dog a few weeks ago. The last time we saw one was the summer before 9/11.

Blogger Student in Blue March 24, 2016 8:32 AM  

@Jourdan
Which means, revolution. Bloody, messy revolution.

Well, here's hoping the revolution will be less bloody than it has to be. And by that I mean I hope most of the building pressure gets relieved by a Trump nomination.

We'll see by next year either way.

Blogger CM March 24, 2016 12:17 PM  

Are you accounting for Democrat crossovers in that 20%, or are you just predicting it's going to be not that big of an impact?

I would think the black vote won't be as motivated to vote Hillary over Trump like they were to vote the First Black President Ever.

2008/2012 participation is not a good predictor of current participation.

Also, the Ds are having their own tiff, too. Its not as obvious because Bernie doesn't have hardly any free-agent delegates, but he was winning on popular vote in those early primaries. I think the D passion against Trump translating to votes for Hilary is over-hyped.

Blogger Cogitans Iuvenis March 24, 2016 10:34 PM  

Enquirer just issued an article about Senator Cruz having an affair with 5 women. Ordinarily id call bullshit but they broke the John Edwards scandal open and Donald did recently tell Cruz that he would spill the beans. R Donald trump has potentially identified 2 of the 5 mistresses.

If this is true Cruz is done.

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