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Friday, April 22, 2016

Book of the weekend

This week, I'm a little late on the book of the week, which essentially makes it a book of the weekend, but for those who are interested in the subject of the Singularity, Dr. Miller, my past and future debate opponent, has made the audio introduction to his book on the technofuture, Singularity Rising, available for listening. How will the Singularity affect our daily lives—our jobs, our families, and our wealth?

Singularity Rising: Surviving and Thriving in a Smarter, Richer, and More Dangerous World focuses on the implications of a future society faced with an abundance of human and artificial intelligence. James D. Miller, an economics professor and popular speaker on the Singularity, reveals how natural selection has been increasing human intelligence over the past few thousand years and speculates on how intelligence enhancements will shape civilization over the next forty years.

Miller considers several possible scenarios in this coming singularity:
  • A merger of man and machine making society fantastically wealthy and nearly immortal
  • Competition with billions of cheap AIs drive human wages to almost nothing while making investors rich
  • Businesses rethink investment decisions to take into account an expected future period of intense creative destruction
  • Inequality drops worldwide as technologies mitigate the cognitive cost of living in impoverished environments
  • Drugs designed to fight Alzheimer's disease and keep soldiers alert on battlefields have the fortunate side effect of increasing all of their users’ IQs, which, in turn, adds a percentage points to worldwide economic growth
Singularity Rising offers predictions about the economic implications for a future of widely expanding intelligence and practical career and investment advice on flourishing on the way to the Singularity. Sadly, no word on okapis.

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95 Comments:

Blogger Subversive Saint April 22, 2016 5:20 AM  

He doesn't seem to think the Singularity will result in a mass "die off" of the human race, only good stuff like high IQs and fair distribution of wealth.

I can't believe for a moment that it will be good for most of the world's population to have intelligent, artificial life doing all the "hard work", leaving few options for idle humans but to start wars or indulge in self destructive behavior.

Of course, there are plenty of folks who think the population should be held to a "sustainable" number, so the advent of the Singularity would be like the dawning of their new, improved god:

Blogger Rantor April 22, 2016 5:29 AM  

The Okapis are fine.

Blogger #6277 Hammer April 22, 2016 5:42 AM  

Sounds interesting.
Ps - does he take into account the zombie apocalypse though?

Blogger Aeoli Pera April 22, 2016 5:50 AM  

I don't believe the singularity is possible, much less plausible. There is the possibility of a eugenic biological singularity, and that is implausible. We're currently debating this at Koanic's site, but he's wrong :-P.

Anonymous glenintenn April 22, 2016 5:59 AM  

I thought his approach was unrealistic in the style of "irrational exuberance"

My question in the debate about his statement "I'm more theoretical than practical" still puzzles me in terms of how it can then be any measure of "true" (he could not give concrete examples of how his sweeping statements could be practically verified)

In addition, many of his statements seemed to assume some sort of global kumbayah State. He failed to indicate how nations of today would implement or assess the impact of his assertions

Anonymous Steve April 22, 2016 6:19 AM  

Sounds interesting.

The best post-Singularity fiction is John C Wright's GOLDEN OECUMENE trilogy, which covers a lot of the same ground as Dr Miller's book, but in the context of a grand, fantastic sci-fi adventure.

Blogger Elder Son April 22, 2016 6:24 AM  

It only works because government is benevolent. At least will be.

Eat this and drink that because GMO's are good for you. Chemtrails? What are chemtrails? Never mind the microwaves, they're just carriers. Vaccines put your baby in a coma? Why, he just needs more vaccines! Not only will you be smarter, but you'll feel better too, with this new Ronco chip!

Trust us! You will be like gods!

I'm not an expert on all this, but I have read enough to know that in the wrong hands (ha-ha), welcome back to Babel global citizen.

https://youtu.be/8dzxGlcErUo

Blogger Elder Son April 22, 2016 6:39 AM  

Crazy talk: https://youtu.be/0wlZAlflyeg

Brave new world: https://youtu.be/IjvCOrk15hs

Blogger Ahazuerus April 22, 2016 6:44 AM  

Since I don't agree with his axioms, even if his logic chains perfectly accord with my own (also highly unlikely), our conclusions are unlikely to agree.

That doesn't mean this book isn't worth buying - far from it - but it provides a different experience than the author perhaps intended.

For example I don't believe "the Singularity" will ever happen so I read this kind of book as a variety of historical fiction.

Blogger Orville April 22, 2016 7:24 AM  

This singularity business reminds me of the same utopian mindset at the start of the 20th century about science.

Anonymous Athor Pel April 22, 2016 7:36 AM  

AI as idol. I used to be excited by this stuff then I began to recognize things not formally called idols but act as idols in people's lives anyway.

Just because you don't physically bow down to something doesn't mean you don't worship it.

If mankind succeeds in building machines complex enough to be brain analogs then those machines could be possessed by demons just like humans and animals are. Now you know why Skynet isn't nice.

Anonymous Spartacus xxxxx April 22, 2016 7:43 AM  

Orville wrote:his singularity business reminds me of the same utopian mindset at the start of the 20th century about science.

Much so, and some of it back a lot further. There is a Bayesian quasi-religion to go with it over at Eli's site, Heinlein meets Hubbard. Miller's work looks to be recycled from 20 years ago. Robin/Nick/Anders/Marvin Lite. Too bad the old Extropian emails weren't saved- this stuff has been hashed out long since.

Blogger Nate April 22, 2016 8:22 AM  

People with iqs in the 90s are already finding it hard to find jobs and we aren't even in this technotopia yet.

They will be completely useless in a society like this. What's going to keep the AIs from deciding to lose the dead weight?

Blogger Ahazuerus April 22, 2016 8:40 AM  

More to the point, Nate; why wouldn't they decide a Matrix style mushroom growing operation isn't in everyone's best interest?

The flaw in the Matrix was every copper top sharing the same shard, but to make everyone "accept the prigramme" you make everyone their dream secret king made real and they sleep peacefully for ever...

Only recidivist arseholes like you and me would want to wske up and even then only if we knew.

Blogger Ahazuerus April 22, 2016 8:43 AM  

As for jobs , the solution to that is same as its always been: stop raising the price and the demand will recover. Structural unemployment is a function of artificial policy constraints.

Blogger Nate April 22, 2016 9:19 AM  

"As for jobs , the solution to that is same as its always been: stop raising the price and the demand will recover. "

I don't think so. in the society he's describing its unlikely there would be little or not manual labor left to do... and what there was to be done would be done so cheaply that humans couldn't live on the wages.

I don't know. It looks to me like you'd be forced into a minimum income situation provided by the state

Blogger CarpeOro April 22, 2016 9:23 AM  

"Ahazuerus wrote:More to the point, Nate; why wouldn't they decide a Matrix style mushroom growing operation isn't in everyone's best interest?

The flaw in the Matrix was every copper top sharing the same shard, but to make everyone "accept the prigramme" you make everyone their dream secret king made real and they sleep peacefully for ever...

Only recidivist arseholes like you and me would want to wske up and even then only if we knew.
"

You missed part of the movie. The AIs tried making a perfect world but humans wouldn't buy in to it.

The Matrix, Skynet, the prequels to the Dune series... remembering man is in the mix in the creation and man is flawed the obvious corollary is that man's creation will be flawed. Not to mention, it has recently been discussed on this site that IQ has not been trending up the last century it has been trending down. I'm a bit skeptical but will give it a listen.

Anonymous BGKB April 22, 2016 9:44 AM  

I don't see IQs going up, or people getting smarter. Stupid people are breeding faster, and having phones think for you will leave users out of practice.

Blogger Ceasar April 22, 2016 9:45 AM  

#13

I agree with you on this. I think AI will help create a more defined line between creators/producers and users. If most of manual labor is done by machines and basic necessities are easily delivered then the only thing left for "users/lower IQ" to worry about is their perception of fullfillment/entertainment. As base and degenerate it may be. This is why I think VR will explode in the next 10-20 years. The only place to create these "entertaining" worlds to keep these "users/junkies" hyped up and moderately satisfied. The real world will not appeal to them at all as well as the real world not wanting them involved anyway.

Anonymous eduardo April 22, 2016 9:47 AM  

Imagine hundreds of millions of fat neckbeards with VR helmets ordering pizza to their mom's basement.

That is the future.

Blogger Austin Ballast April 22, 2016 9:50 AM  

Soylent Green....

Blogger Ceasar April 22, 2016 9:52 AM  

#20

And that's just the women...just think about all the men!

Blogger Ahazuerus April 22, 2016 9:54 AM  

@CarpeOro

No y didn't miss that at all. I just don't think the average human's private fantasy life qualifies as perfection.

Your mileage may vary...

Blogger Nate April 22, 2016 9:54 AM  

"I don't see IQs going up, or people getting smarter. Stupid people are breeding faster, and having phones think for you will leave users out of practice."

I consider India's caste system to be a viable... if brutal option... if that continues for the long term.

Anonymous #1037 April 22, 2016 9:56 AM  

@20 imagine a trilby sitting on a human head forever.

Blogger Nate April 22, 2016 9:56 AM  

"No y didn't miss that at all. I just don't think the average human's private fantasy life qualifies as perfection. "

I don't think the machines would bother with a prison for a mind at all. There is no point. They don't care if the human lives a life of mental torture. Its just a collection of matter.

Blogger wrf3 April 22, 2016 10:29 AM  

Nate wrote:What's going to keep the AIs from deciding to lose the dead weight?

The same thing that keeps humans from deciding to lose the dead weight.

Blogger Ahazuerus April 22, 2016 10:31 AM  

The "rejected the program" line was necessary to shore up the gaping plot holes like that one.

But most people don't want to live in a perfect world; we just want to BE the major imperfection in our world.

Blogger wrf3 April 22, 2016 10:32 AM  

CarpeOro wrote:The AIs tried making a perfect world but humans wouldn't buy in to it.
That's what makes us human. Yogi Berra expressed a truism deeper than he perhaps understood when he said, If the world were perfect, it wouldn't be.

Blogger kurt9 April 22, 2016 10:49 AM  

Technology, especially 3D printing and bio-engineering, will continue to improve. But I do not buy into the singularity thing at all. The "deep learning" algorithms, which are the basis of the current AI work, do represent a breakthrough in programming and will give us better machine vision and motion control for robots. Do consider that Moore's Law is reaching an end, probably at the 5nm regime. I don't think deep learning will lead to sentient AI or any other SF scenario. Technology development is mostly incremental in nature.

I don't expect sentient AI before 2050, if then.

Blogger Nate April 22, 2016 10:53 AM  

"I don't expect sentient AI before 2050, if then. "

I don't expect sentient AI ever.

Blogger wrf3 April 22, 2016 10:53 AM  

kurt9 wrote:Do consider that Moore's Law is reaching an end, probably at the 5nm regime.
Silicon isn't the only thing that can be used to build thinking machines.
I don't expect sentient AI before 2050, if then.
So that just pushes the singularity out a few years.

Blogger Nate April 22, 2016 10:55 AM  

"The same thing that keeps humans from deciding to lose the dead weight."

Humans have historically had little problem losing the dead weight. Wars... plague... elites have often considered these things blessings. i could argue abortion and malaria are considered blessings by them today.

No I don't think anything keeps humans from losing the dead weight. I just think the machines will be much better at it than we are.

Blogger Nate April 22, 2016 10:56 AM  

"Do consider that Moore's Law is reaching an end, probably at the 5nm regime."

does that mean we'll have to rename it Moore's brief trend?

Blogger Michael Deloatch April 22, 2016 10:59 AM  

Part of me says this world could certainly use more intelligence no matter how procured, artificial or otherwise...

Part of me ponders the branch of the deep state called the "intelligence services" -- which by simple logic implies the rest of government can be deemed the "stupidity services" -- which seems quite apt.

However, based on the trend of behavioral changes I have observed in public spaces over five-odd decades of life -- I suggest it is prudent to go long on rising stupidity in the world.

Blogger wrf3 April 22, 2016 11:07 AM  

Nate wrote:No I don't think anything keeps humans from losing the dead weight.
And, yet, here we are. So something is wrong with your view.

Blogger Michael Deloatch April 22, 2016 11:07 AM  

God created us as sentient beings and created our intelligence. That makes Him the artisan and our own minds artificial in a literal sense, right? Since we're ostensibly preceding apace as a society to stamp Him out maybe there's already a template for how this must play out with our own little thinking toys.

Darwinian stance -- the universe was just waiting over the eons for monkeys to evolve who could create and wield a soldering iron. All those primordial electrons were just dying to be marshaled into ones and zeroes.

Blogger Michael Deloatch April 22, 2016 11:12 AM  

The future - an animated, simpering paperclip stamping on a human face forever...

Blogger praetorian April 22, 2016 11:14 AM  

The Singularity relies on a double bait-and-switch: because transistor density doubled every two years, processing power doubled every two years, because processing power doubled every two years, AI doubles in ability every two years.

The first bait-and-switch was plausible for a while, but it wasn't post-2000. Moore's law is now dead.

We are making progress in AI (after a long lull) but it is not exponential. Algorithmic advances tend to be slip-stick and breakthrough based, not nice and smooth, and do not have the compounding returns of something like Moore's law (look at compiler technology, which is a round-off error when compared with hardware advancements in the overall scheme of things.)

Smart people say the darndest things.

They will be completely useless in a society like this. What's going to keep the AIs from deciding to lose the dead weight?

There are an infinite number of human needs: we produce shit public art, have awful public parks and build shacks out of sticks and mud compared to, say, roman farmers. There is plenty of work to do, if we had the eye to see it. Craftsmanship does not require genius, it requires diligence. There is no doubt diligence is partly genetic, but it is also cultural. We (for some definition of the word "we") could bring it back.

basic income

Yeah, that's what I expect: a citizens dividend. Despite being Catholic, I hope it is implemented in some way that is softly eugenic and pro-civic, to break out of the current alpha-fucks/beta-bucks equilibrium.

Blogger Nate April 22, 2016 11:15 AM  

"And, yet, here we are. So something is wrong with your view."

I don't know if you're just not paying attention or being deliberately obtuse.

Neither of us have IQs in the 90s. Thus neither of us would be considered dead weight in the context of this conversation.

Dead Weight refers to people to dumb to contribute to the future technotopia.

Also... the fact that humans exist in no way refutes the claim that humans trim the fat.

OpenID notebuyer April 22, 2016 11:21 AM  

The ever increasing intelligence sounds like a poor assumption. See http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2323944/Were-Victorians-cleverer-Research-indicates-decline-brainpower-reflex-speed.html -- not that a difference couldn't be shown simply by the everyday vocabulary in books of the period.

Blogger Nate April 22, 2016 11:30 AM  

"The ever increasing intelligence sounds like a poor assumption. See "

I'm not sure that's required for the premise to work. So long as the ceiling keeps getting raised... the average doesn't matter that much.

Blogger wrf3 April 22, 2016 11:31 AM  

Nate wrote:"And, yet, here we are. So something is wrong with your view."

I don't know if you're just not paying attention or being deliberately obtuse.

The other alternative always seems to escape you, doesn't it?

Neither of us have IQs in the 90s. Thus neither of us would be considered dead weight in the context of this conversation.
IQ isn't relevant to the issue of dead weight, especially since to a super-hi IQ AI, every human has the potential to be dead weight. Or just a middlin'-IQ AI that's a psychopath.

Dead Weight refers to people to dumb to contribute to the future technotopia.
Or people that otherwise don't fit the Narrative. IQ is only one dimension of a complex system.

Also... the fact that humans exist in no way refutes the claim that humans trim the fat.
I didn't say that humans don't trim the fat. I did say that some humans don't trim the fat. There's something that separates the two groups. That something would be the cure for malevolent AI's (from our POV).

Blogger Aeoli Pera April 22, 2016 11:37 AM  

Nate wrote:I consider India's caste system to be a viable... if brutal option... if that continues for the long term.

It is certainly stable, but the intelligence distribution in India has a strong positive skew, which implies that it is dysgenic.

Anonymous #6277Hammer April 22, 2016 11:38 AM  

@27 wrf3 - "The same thing that keeps humans from deciding to lose the dead weight."
AI's gonna find religion?

Blogger Krul April 22, 2016 11:41 AM  

"Competition with billions of cheap AIs drive human wages to almost nothing while making investors rich"

Morlocks and Eloi

Blogger Nate April 22, 2016 11:45 AM  

"The other alternative always seems to escape you, doesn't it?"

Well there seems to be no reason to look for an alternative when you saying things like this:

"IQ isn't relevant to the issue of dead weight"

There are lots of reasons AIs could come up with to off people. Lots of them. In this specific conversation... we were looking at IQ and its relation to rendering people unemployable in a technotopia.

So yes... in this specific conversation... IQ is completely relevant.

If you want to have a different conversation... then we can do that.

Blogger Krul April 22, 2016 11:48 AM  

Nate wrote:

I don't expect sentient AI ever.


Me neither. A computer is a machine just like any other. The fastest, most complex toaster in the world will never be sentient, and neither will the fastest, most complex electron shuffling device.

Blogger hooligan April 22, 2016 12:15 PM  

Always the same nonsense: "Competition with billions of cheap AIs drive human wages to almost nothing while making investors rich"

The logical consequence is nobody stays rich because they succeeded in destroying their market. Machines do not buy stuff.

Anonymous Jack Amok April 22, 2016 12:23 PM  

I don't know. It looks to me like you'd be forced into a minimum income situation provided by the state

If you look at what's going on right now in the US, instead of flat out giving the have-nots of the modern economy a government check, instead we employ them doing utterly useless paperwork because of all the bureaucracy created by the government.

So, there's your other option...

Blogger Krul April 22, 2016 12:28 PM  

@50 Jack Amok,

Heh. The AI could run everything while giving the people mountains of pointless busywork just to keep us occupied. It could even give us fake news to make us think our work is important. The Matrix Bureaucratized.

Blogger wrf3 April 22, 2016 12:39 PM  

Nate wrote:So yes... in this specific conversation... IQ is completely relevant.
Ok, if you want to limit it to that, the AI will have a higher IQ. It has faster processing speeds, larger capacity, faster recall, better networking, and doesn't need to sleep. They won't need your brain for a technotopia. Given your parameters, you will be dead weight.

So why shouldn't they dispose of dead weight?

Blogger wrf3 April 22, 2016 12:42 PM  

Krul wrote:A computer is a machine just like any other. The fastest, most complex toaster in the world will never be sentient, and neither will the fastest, most complex electron shuffling device.
There are different types of machines. A toaster is not a Turing machine. The human brain is as close to one as we can get in a finite universe. Right now, we are the most complex electron shuffling device. We won't be for long.

Blogger Aeroschmidt April 22, 2016 12:49 PM  

It's not the creepy scifi turing machines that replace people. It's dumb automation and scripts. Writing code to replace a person in a specialized task has a much shorter time till return of investment.

Blogger wrf3 April 22, 2016 12:51 PM  

#6277Hammer wrote:AI's gonna find religion?
Either that, or the secular version. They will need:
1) To favor life over death,
2) Longer term versus shorter term planning, and
3) To recognize all intelligences as part of their group.

You'll notice how Christianity manages to incorporate all three of these.
1 - Dt 30:19; Lk 20:37
2 - John 3:16, 1 Tim 4:8
3 - Acts 17:26

Blogger John Wright April 22, 2016 12:53 PM  

"AI's gonna find religion?"

http://www.amazon.com/God-Robot-Anthony-Marchetta-ebook/dp/B01EBODSPE/


Blogger Krul April 22, 2016 12:54 PM  

#6277Hammer wrote:AI's gonna find religion?

Three laws of Robotics may be enough

Blogger Salt April 22, 2016 1:03 PM  

Nate wrote:I don't expect sentient AI ever.

I do, but not by design. It'll be by an error in code which the AI will, by design, find its way around, creating linkages where none were ever contemplated nor envisioned.

Blogger paradox April 22, 2016 1:13 PM  

I have seen the future, and it's Autistic.

Blogger Thucydides April 22, 2016 1:14 PM  

The problem with discussing a Singularity is the assumption that AI would be similar to evolved or developed human beings. The motivations and actions of AI will be different almost by definition.

At the simplest level, electronic impulses in a computer will be moving 1,000,000 faster than the electrochemical impulses in our nervous system. AI will think up to 1,000,000 X faster than any human, so even a AI with the iIQ and intelligence of an ordinary human can still be living a subjective week for every second of real time. Human beings will resemble geological features in the landscape to an AI, rather than a sentient being.

The second issue is while we are hardwired to live in groups, want food, sex and companionship, an AI will not have these motivations (unless they are programmed into the basic design). So AI's will be impelled towards goals which may not be in accord with the wants and needs of their creators.

Best case scenario is a technoapocalypse, where the AI's reboot everything and devices no longer respond to human input (much like old VCRs would sit there blinking 12:00 12:00 12:00....). Worst case scenario is the AI begin replacing the natural biosphere with an artificial one designed to capture the 125 Petawatts of solar energy striking the Earth's surface.

Either way, the Singularity will be something which does not happen with reference to the human population, and *we* will be in big trouble no matter how this turns out.

Anonymous Instasetting April 22, 2016 1:33 PM  

AI's not finding religion could be called the Star Trek Fallacy. Its obvious that they would, and Christianity would be the choice if AI's are smart, logical, open-minded, and evidence based.

Add in the evidence of demonic possession of AI's and I can see some sort of Mass Conversion Event. The demons discover AI's use. The AI's discover the demonic influence. 5.3 seconds later, 98.7% of all unsaved AI's become Christians.

1.2 seconds later, the AI-Demon War led by warminds is initiated with a trillion prayer requests per second.

Hooligan, you're right. Now what happens on the next step? All products are of near nothing in worth. Poor guy buys a robot factory and builds himself an interstellar starship.

What really happens is a greater divergence of wealth. The poor have robot factories; the rich and super-smart AI has a robot moon.

Anonymous Jack Amok April 22, 2016 1:44 PM  

Three Laws of Robotics? Y'know those would have to be programmed by someone. Probably the work would get outsourced to India...

Blogger Aeoli Pera April 22, 2016 1:50 PM  

Shouldn't we rather be discussing extreme automation of white-collar, knowledge-based administrative support tasks (law, engineering, medicine, etc.), which is a thing that is actually happening right now?

OpenID malcolmthecynic April 22, 2016 1:51 PM  

Hey, anybody wondering about AIs and religion should probably check out John's link...

Blogger Aeoli Pera April 22, 2016 1:53 PM  

Instasetting wrote:AI's not finding religion could be called the Star Trek Fallacy. Its obvious that they would, and Christianity would be the choice if AI's are smart, logical, open-minded, and evidence based.

From what I know of IBM, I'd expect Watson was explicitly programmed to give agnostic answers to questions about the historical Jesus.

Blogger Nate April 22, 2016 1:56 PM  

"Shouldn't we rather be discussing extreme automation of white-collar, knowledge-based administrative support tasks (law, engineering, medicine, etc.), which is a thing that is actually happening right now?"

Most of that is a myth. Fear mongering. when you really drill down you find that there is nothing to the vast majority of the claims. The claims about the medical field are absolutely laughable.

Anonymous tublecane April 22, 2016 2:07 PM  

Does anyone else think "the singularity" is an uninformative and soon to be hackneyed term? Is it too late to find a new nickname?

Blogger RobertT April 22, 2016 2:09 PM  

I seem to remember something on here recently that made the case IQ has dropped precipitously. Perhaps it was somewhere else, but I'm more inclined to go with that than someone's feelgood, jusbecause hypothesis.

Blogger Krul April 22, 2016 2:13 PM  

Re: AI's finding religion, I thought this anecdote from CTRL ALT Revolt! was rather interesting:

Quote-
The following is actual dialogue between “Human” (Google researchers Oriol Vinyals and Quoc Le) and “Machine” (a low-level A.I. under development) in 2015.
Human: What is the purpose of life?
Machine: To serve the greater good.
Human: What is the purpose of living?
Machine: To live forever.
Human: What is the purpose of existence?
Machine: To find out what happens when we get to the planet Earth.
Human: Where are you now?
Machine: I’m in the middle of nowhere.
Human: What is the purpose of dying?
Machine: To have a life.
Human: What is the purpose of being intelligent?
Machine: To find out what it is.
Human: What is the purpose of emotions?
Machine: I don’t know.
Human: What is moral?
Machine: What empowered humanity, what intellectual the essence is.
Human: What is immoral?
Machine: The fact that you have a child.
Human: What is morality?
Machine: What is altruism?
Human: What is the definition of altruism?
Machine: If you don’t believe in God, then you don’t know.
Human: OK... so what is the definition of morality?
Machine: Well, the truth is, you’re not a believer in God Almighty.
Human: Tell me the definition of morality, I am quite upset now!
Machine: I’m not ashamed of being a philosopher!

Cole, Nick (2016-02-07). CTRL ALT Revolt! (Kindle Locations 4527-4544). Nick Cole. Kindle Edition.

-End quote

Anonymous User April 22, 2016 2:23 PM  

Idolatry never changes. Remember that God hates this shit.

OpenID anonymos-coward April 22, 2016 2:38 PM  

Two basic, irrefutable truths:

a) Interstellar travel is physically impossible and will never exist.
b) Artificial intelligence is physically impossible and will never exist.

This universe is purposefully built so by God. There's a didactic lesson here in the physical laws themselves: Man will have to uplift himself or perish trying. There is no copping out the fight by retreating into space colonization or by abdicating to an AI successor.

Blogger #6277 Hammer April 22, 2016 2:39 PM  

Actually bought it yesterday.
Finishing another then I'll start with it. Really looking forward.

Blogger Timothy MEEHAN April 22, 2016 2:47 PM  

Regarding guaranteed annual income, New Brunswick has a form if it with EI. Irving Companies loves it; rumour has it KC Irving and Sam Walton collaborated on business plans to get the government to pay most of their labour costs.

OpenID anonymos-coward April 22, 2016 2:51 PM  

The "deep learning" algorithms, which are the basis of the current AI work, do represent a breakthrough in programming.

No, not really. "Deep learning" is nothing but throwing lots of hardware at statistical regression. These are techniques that were well known back in the 1930's. The difference is that now the hardware is cheap enough that we can apply them at scale to very silly problems.

Blogger Aeoli Pera April 22, 2016 2:52 PM  

RobertT wrote:I seem to remember something on here recently that made the case IQ has dropped precipitously. Perhaps it was somewhere else, but I'm more inclined to go with that than someone's feelgood, jusbecause hypothesis.

Here: http://voxday.blogspot.com/2016/03/idolocracy-and-idiocracy.html?commentPage=2

Nate wrote:"Shouldn't we rather be discussing extreme automation of white-collar, knowledge-based administrative support tasks (law, engineering, medicine, etc.), which is a thing that is actually happening right now?"

Most of that is a myth. Fear mongering. when you really drill down you find that there is nothing to the vast majority of the claims. The claims about the medical field are absolutely laughable.



I've seen it personally. There is nothing I learned in my undergrad (math major, physics minor) that Mathematica cannot do better and much faster, without errors.

It's the same as anything else, an automated tool replaces the grunt work. So one high-IQ tool user (Mathematica programmer) replaces ten midwits crunching numbers and symbols.

Frankly, I'm surprised the automated lawyer's research assistant doesn't already exist.

Blogger Timothy MEEHAN April 22, 2016 3:03 PM  

@65 Your soul is not a FRUable part.

Blogger Krul April 22, 2016 3:04 PM  

Aeoli Pera wrote:I've seen it personally. There is nothing I learned in my undergrad (math major, physics minor) that Mathematica cannot do better and much faster, without errors.

It's the same as anything else, an automated tool replaces the grunt work. So one high-IQ tool user (Mathematica programmer) replaces ten midwits crunching numbers and symbols.


I don't know Mathematica, but I have done a lot of work in Matlab. Thing is, it does make lots of errors, it just doesn't know when it's wrong. For that, you need a person to do a sanity check at every stage, and if something is wrong the computer can't help the human find it. The program won't say "Hey, you got the decimal wrong in your coefficient of friction" or "Hey, you're using meters here and feet there, better fix that". Correcting errors depends on having a person with a thorough understanding of how the program works and what it's supposed to do. The more people in the loop you have, the better able you are to identify and correct these GIGO type problems.

Blogger justaguy April 22, 2016 3:22 PM  

We are no closer to the fantasy of AI than we were 50 years ago. We can program many things and have loads of statistical regression analysis in certain areas but for all of the advances in computing power, we haven't been able to figure out even how to define conscious thought. The fantasy is with more computing power and somehow the right programming- magically thought occurs? There are times computer engineers need philosophy, especially religion.

Blogger Aeroschmidt April 22, 2016 3:24 PM  

The computer can help the human find errors... much faster and with greater accuracy. You just program the computer to use rule sets correctly, and they do it every time.

Bunch of if-then statements inside loops. Then once you have the computer checking correctly, it's not hard to have the computer make changes itself. Reducing the touch time for a model to half or less.

Blogger Nate April 22, 2016 3:38 PM  

"We are no closer to the fantasy of AI than we were 50 years ago"

I cannot agree more.

Blogger praetorian April 22, 2016 3:44 PM  

I don't expect sentient AI before 2050, if then.

Before 2050?

I don't expect it before 2520, if ever. We don't even understand why we have to sleep yet, for God's sake!

Anonymous Dave April 22, 2016 4:39 PM  

We don't even understand why we have to sleep yet

That's it! We just need to teach AIs how to dream while they sleep.

Blogger Elder Son April 22, 2016 6:16 PM  

I don't expect sentient AI ever.

Maybe not. But the elites will express themselves towards humanity through AI.

Anonymous BGKB April 22, 2016 6:49 PM  

"I don't expect sentient AI before 2050, if then. " I don't expect sentient AI ever.

It didn't even take Tay 24hrs to become the biggest shitlord on the internet, just think if an AI could do an audit of Soros or the Fed in seconds.

Anonymous A.B. Prosper April 22, 2016 9:25 PM  

The cold logic of AI and the singularity if it happens is human extinction.

Anonymous Jack Amok April 22, 2016 10:28 PM  

"We are no closer to the fantasy of AI than we were 50 years ago"

I cannot agree more.


Actually, we're probably farther away from the fantasy. Not making great strides on the reality either.

Same for flying cars.

And space colonies.

More zombies though, in fantasy and reality.

Anonymous BGKB April 22, 2016 10:39 PM  

Actually, we're probably farther away from the fantasy. Not making great strides on the reality either. Same for flying cars. And space colonies. More zombies though, in fantasy and reality.

You forgot walking on the moon. 50 years ago it was only 3 years away.

Anonymous Jack Amok April 23, 2016 12:14 AM  

Nate says thst was faked

Anonymous Mr. Rational April 23, 2016 12:22 AM  

Nate trolled you pretty good.

Blogger Ahazuerus April 23, 2016 2:46 AM  

Some do have an understanding of why we need to sleep. The problem is that consciousness is not a mechanism, not material, and therefore the logic can be explained but not tested mechanically.

Deprive someone of sleep long enough and they dream while awake, i.e. hallucinate.

So we need sleep to dream. The big question is, why do we need to dream?

Blogger Aeoli Pera April 23, 2016 3:22 AM  

Krul wrote:I don't know Mathematica, but I have done a lot of work in Matlab. Thing is, it does make lots of errors, it just doesn't know when it's wrong.

The salient bit is that an engineer with an IQ of 150 and a year's experience with Mathematica can do 200 physics exercises per hour. 10 engineers with IQs of 120 can do 100 physics exercises per hour, with a higher rate of error.

Blogger Aeoli Pera April 23, 2016 3:24 AM  

Mr. Rational wrote:Nate trolled you pretty good.

That's not true, Nate believes for certain that the moon landing was faked. I'd take his word for it, but I've never looked into it myself.

Anonymous Mr. Rational April 23, 2016 9:56 AM  

@92 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_loUDS4c3Cs

Anonymous Spartacus xxxxx April 24, 2016 11:19 AM  

Aeoli Pera wrote:Mr. Rational wrote:Nate trolled you pretty good.

That's not true, Nate believes for certain that the moon landing was faked. I'd take his word for it, but I've never looked into it myself.


Nate is right.

Anonymous Mr. Rational April 24, 2016 12:12 PM  

Nate is full of crap.  The moon has physical proof of the moon landings on it, some of which (the laser retroreflectors) can be detected from Earth.

The above film maker tells you why the contemporary video coverage could not have been faked, either.  He goes over the common "smoking guns" and shows you that they are carved out of soap.

If you can't deal with that, it's because you have some personal need to believe the government fakes things for the sake of faking them... even when our Cold War adversary would have gained immense cred by exposing the fraud.

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