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Friday, April 01, 2016

Chaos Horizon predicts Best Novel finalists

I respected the work that Brandon Kempner does at Chaos Horizon even before he went six for six in correctly predicting all the novels nominated for the 2016 Nebula Awards. Sure, the SJWs are getting more than a little predictable, but even so, that was an impressive performance.

He's onto the 2016 Hugo Awards now, for which the nominations are now closed, and he has attempted to sort out how the three major factions, the Not-Puppies, the Rabid Puppies, and the Sad Puppies, are going to turn out in order to predict the Best Novel shortlist that will be announced on April 26th.

Some of his assumptions, all of which are reasonable, but not necessarily correct, are as follows:
  • Turnout will be higher than normal, but generally in line with past percentages of total eligibility.
  • There is no whisper slate among one or more groups of Puppykickers.
  • The Rabid Puppies are subject to normal group indiscipline.
  • The 2016 Sad Puppy list indicates how 2015 Sad Puppies will vote.
The latter is the most questionable assumption, and is almost certainly incorrect. The others are more reasonable and may well hold. His numbers indicate a maximum turnout of 709 nominations for the top Not-Puppy novel, 440 for all of the Rabid Puppy novels, and 360 for the top Sad Puppy novel. And although there is no formal Not-Puppy list, as noted before, the behavior of the SF-SJWs in fandom is so predictable that he was able to assemble the equivalent of the Not-Puppy slate, which is as follows:
  • Uprooted, Naomi Novik
  • Ancillary Mercy, Ann Leckie
  • The Fifth Season, NK Jemisin 
  • Aurora, Kim Stanley Robinson 
  • Seveneves, Neal Stephenson
Note that I correctly identified three of them back in December. The notable omission is any novel published by Tor Books; if Chaos Horizon is correct, 2016 would mark only the third time since 1997 that Tor Books was not represented on the Best Novel shortlist. (This may explain the Torlings' determination to push through EPH and guarantee Tor a permanent slot on the shortlist.)

Chaos Horizon presented 27 possible models. I selected max Not-Puppy, max Rabid Puppy, and max-min Sad Puppy to come up with these results, with the first five qualifying for the Best Novel shortlist.

918 Seveneves
853 Uprooted
800 Somewhither
782 The Aeronaut's Windlass
774 Ancillary Mercy
522 The Fifth Season
522 Aurora
480 Golden Son
440 Agent of the Imperium

This was in line with Chaos Horizon's own conclusions, which were revealed in the comments of his most recent post:
Jacob:
My prediction of the five nominees: Uprooted, Seveneves, The Aeronaut’s Windlass, Somewither, and Ancillary Mercy

chaoshorizon:
Way to spoil the surprise! But that’s what I think as well.
However, no one should start celebrating or cursing their stars yet. I suspect the Hugos will turn out to be less easily predicted than the Nebulas. First, the Rabid Puppies may outperform. A disciplined Rabid Puppy performance combined with half the Sad Puppies turning Rabid would mean Golden Son (which may be the best SF novel of the entire lot) would get 810 votes, which would allow it to knock Ancillary Mercy off the shortlist. Combine that with a half-hearted Not-Puppy effort, and the much-feared Rabid Puppy sweep becomes theoretically conceivable.

On the other hand, if the Puppykickers show the same ability to march in lockstep on the nominations that they did in voting No Award last year, even Seveneves won't be nominated. In that case, we'll probably see Barsk, The Fifth Season, and The Traitor Baru Cormorant in addition to Uprooted and Ancillary Mercy. And then there is always the possibility that one or more authors decline a nomination and render the entire nomination process irrelevant.

NOTA BENE: as Marc DuQuesne points out, the predicted outcome can be accurately characterized as a Puppy sweep, since both Ancillary Mercy and Uprooted appear on the Sad Puppy list. However, since only Uprooted appears in the Sad Puppy top five, I don't think that would be a reasonable characterization of a shortlist containing the Leckie book.

Regardless three of five in Best Novel (four of five if we count SP) would exceed last year's net Puppy performance, and would be quite satisfying in light of our known numerical disadvantage versus the entirety of SF fandom. It would also suffice to put EPH through, which would be very useful by guaranteeing the Puppies a permanent seat on the Hugo Security Council. And considering that Uprooted is not only a Sad Puppy recommendation but a pretty good fantasy to which I gave serious consideration to putting on the Rabid Puppies list, if Chaos Horizon is right, we would be very pleased should the outcome he anticipates come to pass.

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43 Comments:

Blogger The Kurgan April 01, 2016 5:52 AM  

I sit on my island fortress laughing and cheering the Dark Lord from afar as I sip from my silver goblet. I don't think many have yet even begun to understand the tide of darkness that is about to envelop the SJWs

Blogger Sagramore Was Here April 01, 2016 6:00 AM  

While this year I won't be a Hugo-naught (because it's actually about ethics; my Parliament Hill friend doesn't vote in elections she covers either) may the best book win and may maximal chaos ensue.

MAYAN TED (as in Apocalyptio)

Blogger Marc DuQuesne April 01, 2016 6:09 AM  

Since Ancillary Mercy and Uprooted are both on the Sad Puppies slate, the chances are pretty good for a combined Puppy sweep.

Will that force the 'No Award over any slate pick' CHORFs to double down and No Award best novel?

Blogger VD April 01, 2016 6:32 AM  

Since Ancillary Mercy and Uprooted are both on the Sad Puppies slate, the chances are pretty good for a combined Puppy sweep.

I suspect that we're on the verge of Sad Puppies being declared not Puppies by the SJWs. They'll use the open nomination policy as an excuse to avoid calling it a sweep, unless it's a Rabid Puppy sweep.

Just as they won't call it a sweep or a slate if there is a lockstep Puppykicker shortlist.

Blogger Stilicho April 01, 2016 6:33 AM  

Got my confirmation email but it was limited to the best novel category picks. It only showed the picks I had made before my first save of the submission. None of my nominations in any of the other categories were shown nor did I receive subsequent emails memorializing later submissions. Something to keep an eye on.

Blogger VD April 01, 2016 6:39 AM  

Got my confirmation email but it was limited to the best novel category picks.

Wait until Monday, then email and query.

Anonymous Steve April 01, 2016 6:59 AM  

Ancillary Mercy and Uprooted are both on the Sad Puppies slate,

Wait, what?

GAAAAAAAAYYYYYYYYYYYY.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan April 01, 2016 7:30 AM  

Has there been a campaign on the puppy kicker side for anything resembling a slate or partial slate?

To me they seem like nasty little bitches that are best at spreading hate.

Anonymous VFM #6306 April 01, 2016 7:39 AM  

Yes, Mr. Mantraman, there have been organized slates in fandom, for example at regional conferences, for decades.

Blogger VD April 01, 2016 7:41 AM  

Has there been a campaign on the puppy kicker side for anything resembling a slate or partial slate?

There have been a number of lists and so forth, considerably more than in past years. But there has been nothing formally announced by any of the obvious cabal leaders, who have mostly been very quiet.

Either they delivered an April Surprise or they are playing a strategic game and hoping for a big Puppy performance to justify ratifying EPH at the business meeting this year. We'll find out in 25 days.

Anonymous 9148 April 01, 2016 7:57 AM  

I did my duty, Supreme Dark Lord.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan April 01, 2016 8:08 AM  

At places like Kos it seemed the most common phrase was "common enemy" other than that I seen little in the way of love, nasty little bitches seems appropriate. "No award" would be easy, it might take too much effort for each little sub group to join together and actually love something.

Just showing up unnerves them, hard to believe that conservatives fell to them, like a household held hostage to the girl-child who locks herself in the bathroom and cuts herself on her bad days.

OpenID denektenorsk April 01, 2016 8:14 AM  

Just showing up unnerves them, hard to believe that conservatives fell to them, like a household held hostage to the girl-child who locks herself in the bathroom and cuts herself on her bad days.

Cut away darling. Can I sharpen the razor blade for you?

Anonymous Steve April 01, 2016 8:25 AM  

In the beginning, there was the Lulz.

But the Lulz were formless and diffuse, like unto a foam party.

So the Lulz became book.

And that book was SPACE RAPTOR BUTT INVASION.

And the Supreme Dark Lord beheld SPACE RAPTOR BUTT INVASION, and saw that it was good.

And he sayeth to us:

"Wretched minions! Cursed automatons! Creepy sentient ventriloquist's dummies and murderous vengeful river otters!"

"Go forth and spread the vile word of SPACE RAPTOR BUTT INVASION, for this amuseth me, and it is the DARK LORD who speaks!"

I will not cease from mental fight, nor shall my sword sleep in my hand till we see Chuck Tingle collect the Hugo award he rightly deserves.

Blogger Nate April 01, 2016 9:10 AM  

the Sad Puppies put Ancillary Mercy on the list? How embarrassing.

Blogger Nate April 01, 2016 9:28 AM  

"I suspect that we're on the verge of Sad Puppies being declared not Puppies by the SJWs. They'll use the open nomination policy as an excuse to avoid calling it a sweep, unless it's a Rabid Puppy sweep."

Well given the results... I would have to agree with them. If the group produced shit like A.M. then they are no more puppies than the Episcopalians are a church.

Anonymous VFM #6306 April 01, 2016 10:02 AM  

You have to remember that a lot of the original Sads have gone Rabid for a reason. SP is now a leftover category.

Blogger JCclimber April 01, 2016 10:09 AM  

What was the expression, Women Ruin Everything?

And who is in charge of Sad Puppies this year? The ongoing dispute about nationality and citizenship with a recent Portuguese immigrant shows how close the Sad Puppies are to SJW mindsets. They don't realize how much feminism has seeped into their brains and brought the dry rot with it.

Blogger Blume April 01, 2016 10:15 AM  

And open forums that actually encouraged saboteurs.

Blogger Salt April 01, 2016 10:16 AM  

VD wrote:I suspect that we're on the verge of Sad Puppies being declared not Puppies by the SJWs.

Appears GRRM might agree -

"I made my objections to the Puppy slates clear last year. This time around, the Sad Puppies at least changed from a slate to a recommendation list, to which I have no objections. ... Sad Puppies 4 played fair, in my estimation, and for that I commend them."

Are Sad Puppies sad?

Anonymous Edd the Duck April 01, 2016 10:25 AM  

Re: Left-beloved works on SP4 list:

Really, this was unavoidable, and the Puppies were damned either way. If Kate Paulk decided to simply disregard any votes for the liked of Leckie or Jemisin, she'd be booed by the anti-Puppy crowd for following an obvious right-wing agenda. She did not -- and so the anti-Puppy crowd complains about how she's obviously trying to mask her right-wing agenda (never mind that it's File770 regulars who got these works on the List in the first place!!).

Blogger Mr.MantraMan April 01, 2016 10:25 AM  

Sads are mommies vulnerable to radical child's screams of "I hate you mommy."

As long as radical child doesn't threaten the comfort of mommy too much or mommy has to assume too much responsibility for radical child they will patronize radical child

Anonymous Roundtine April 01, 2016 10:37 AM  

Google Trends for rabid puppies and sad puppies is down, but so are searches for the Hugo Awards. If there was any organic growth by the puppies, or simply good discipline, the vote share should rise this year. If the results last year were driven more by "marketing," I'd expect numbers to drop since it wasn't as large a topic this year.

Anonymous Nathan April 01, 2016 10:40 AM  

Re: Ancillary Mercy,

The process for Sad Puppies was open to everyone. Some File770 people decided to play. Enough of them joined in to push certain nominations through, giving a couple authors a bad case of acid reflux when their names appeared on the list.

Personally, I'm not thrilled about it, but after the Carnival of the Assholes, I found that my tastes are aligned with Vox's when it comes to award winning SF.

Anonymous Eric April 01, 2016 10:43 AM  

Aurora sucked the big one. I got it as a Christmas gift. Seldom have I read books that depressed me more. Definitely not worthy.

OpenID frankluke.com April 01, 2016 10:48 AM  

As if we needed further validation of our Dark Lord's statement. "Any institution that does not actively protect itself from SJWs will be converged by SJWs." (paraphrase)

The sads were so anxious to prove they weren't a slate and weren't racist, sexist, homophobic Islamaphobes that they let in the very thing they were fighting against. Being called all those names never made Brad or Larry flinch.

Blogger Ingot9455 April 01, 2016 10:53 AM  

Oh, I'm sure that if Ancillary Mercy doesn't make the list, the Sad Puppies will be accused of some sort of secret second slate of 'top choices' that makes them Rabid.

Anonymous Bz April 01, 2016 11:10 AM  

SPACE RAPTOR BUTT INVASION!

Ahem, also, Somewhither could contend creditably in that crowd, except I suppose the rabbits will ugh I can't even. While reading it, I thought our esteemed author could do well to release the background notes for his works for another $5 each; he's such a peerless world builder. But for this one, only when the whole thing is done.

Speaking of Wright, I'm just finishing up Iron Chamber of Memory, and it's turning out to be pretty freaking great too. Modern fantasy grows rather pale and wan and mousy in comparison, a plastic mug beside the crystal glass. Longer review once I'm done.

Blogger Nate April 01, 2016 11:32 AM  

if Bad Boring Message Fiction is the leading cause of puppy related sadness... the then the Sad Puppies are the Humane Society of Sci Fi. Killing the very animals they claim to protect.

Blogger Franz April 01, 2016 11:50 AM  

I, VFM #399, have absolutely not followed the direct order by the Supreme Dark Lord of the Evil Legion, which wasn't an order at all. I managed to exercise my disobedience to the non-order just about 3-4 hours before deadline.

I have not received any email confirmation of my actual non-slate vote. Neither for first submission, nor any subsequent saves. I hear other nominators had similar issues.

Last year's nominations Web site Sasquan sent a separate email for every update submission.

I hope not any foul play at work here....

Blogger John Wright April 01, 2016 12:20 PM  

"Speaking of Wright, I'm just finishing up Iron Chamber of Memory, and it's turning out to be pretty freaking great too. Modern fantasy grows rather pale and wan and mousy in comparison, a plastic mug beside the crystal glass. Longer review once I'm done."

But how does it compare with SPACE RAPTOR BUTT INVASION, which should win a Hugo based on its title alone? My works must seem pallid and watered down in comparison to robust yet tenderly quivering tales of extinct extraterrestrial homobestial lizard-love sodomy.

Blogger The Kurgan April 01, 2016 12:27 PM  

When do we need to buy another ticket to vote in the actual Hugos?

Blogger Sir Thermite April 01, 2016 12:29 PM  

@Franz

I'm one of those who also hasn't received a confirmation email yet despite multiple saves before submission of my final ballot 24 hours prior to the deadline. Everything was still there though after I reopened my browser and logged back into the website, although curiously the didn't save in the exact order I entered them and the method of re-sorting was not immediately evident to me. I cannot see how the order of entry could matter during the nomination process so I didn't look at it too long, but it was odd.

Anonymous RedJack April 01, 2016 12:39 PM  

I received email confirmation for all my votes and updates.

I received three in a day. But my ballot was set two weeks ago.

Anonymous Roundtine April 01, 2016 12:56 PM  

I hope not any foul play at work here....

I received email confirmation for every submission about a week ago, roughly 24 hours later. I assume it will take longer with the last minute crunch.

Anonymous Bz April 01, 2016 1:10 PM  

SPACE RAPTOR BUTT INVASION of course has a literally undeniable virility that one can only hope propels it to grasp in prehensile tail a well-deserved Hugo, leaving only a devastated conference hall behind.

In the more literary realm, I just briefly envisioned you two cooperating, though it rather quickly seemed things would end up much like they did in A Case of Conscience.

Anonymous Bz April 01, 2016 1:14 PM  

T-Shirts: Lizard-Love Cannot be Denied and V: The Way It Should Have Been.

Blogger Ingot9455 April 01, 2016 1:48 PM  

@28 You're in luck, Bz, there's already two posts on scifiwright.com with a good bit of background notes on SOMEWHITHER.

http://www.scifiwright.com/2015/08/a-convenient-list-of-the-monstrous-races-of-somewhither/

http://www.scifiwright.com/2015/08/chart-of-aeons-and-deviations-from-somewhither/

I have IRON CHAMBER OF MEMORY waiting for me, but I believe the line is:

"It's no SPACE RAPTOR BUTT INVASION, but then again what is?"

Anonymous Ezekiel Cassandros April 01, 2016 6:00 PM  

But how does it compare with SPACE RAPTOR BUTT INVASION, which should win a Hugo based on its title alone? My works must seem pallid and watered down in comparison

Not only that, but he is as much of a multi-genre master as you. SLAMMED IN THE BUTTHOLE BY MY CONCEPT OF LINEAR TIME is eligible for a Hugo next year, and it could even serve as an olive branch to SJWs who were disappointed that "QUEERS DIG TIME LORDS" didn't win.

Anonymous Steve April 01, 2016 6:25 PM  

Although IRON CHAMBER OF MEMORY contained no butt invasions, space raptors, or indeed any mention of lusty lunar lizards lasciviously fluttering their nicitating membranes as a coy cretaceous carnal come-on to red hot dino-a-mano action, I still enjoyed it.

Blogger Nate April 01, 2016 9:26 PM  

"
But how does it compare with SPACE RAPTOR BUTT INVASION, which should win a Hugo based on its title alone? My works must seem pallid and watered down in comparison to robust yet tenderly quivering tales of extinct extraterrestrial homobestial lizard-love sodomy. "

no sir... you should get a hugo for simply coming up with the term homobestial.

Blogger John Wright April 02, 2016 3:04 PM  

@40 I think Steve should win the Hugo for his blurb of my book.

Blogger EscapeVelocity April 02, 2016 9:40 PM  

I guess I should have nominated Pierce Brown's Golden Son instead of Declann Finn and Brian Niemeier

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