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Tuesday, April 19, 2016

New York primary

"New York will award 95 delegates on the GOP side, and 247 on the Democratic. If Trump wins by one vote over 50 percent, both statewide and in every congressional district, he will take all 95 delegates."

Trump needs a big performance here to regain his momentum. This is an open thread to discuss the New York primary.

Labels:

148 Comments:

Blogger Ellimist April 19, 2016 8:13 PM  

The description is a little misleading.

He needs to win with at least 50% in every single congressional district to sweep the delegates.

Getting all of them is possible but unlikely. Getting 65-70 or more is likely. 90+ would be very good.

Blogger newanubis April 19, 2016 8:17 PM  

Though familiarity may breed contempt interpersonally, on a national scale it's political gold. Folks have historically endorsed the 'name' they know which to any thinking human being is insanity, but true nonetheless. As such, Donald Trump IS New York and I fully expect the tally to reflect such, sans any diebolding.

Blogger Were-Puppy April 19, 2016 8:25 PM  

Does this mean that if Trump gets over 50% in a particular district, then Teddy can't sneak in behind later and swipe those delegates?

Blogger SciVo April 19, 2016 8:35 PM  

Were-Puppy wrote:Does this mean that if Trump gets over 50% in a particular district, then Teddy can't sneak in behind later and swipe those delegates?

Yes. The NY delegates are bound for the first ballot.

Blogger SciVo April 19, 2016 8:35 PM  

Of course, he can still lobby for their support on the second ballot, if there is one...

Blogger SamuraiJack April 19, 2016 8:39 PM  

No more Goldman Sachs shennanigans from Teddy! Seriously, he is such a smug tool. No wonder the Bush crew came to his side. Godspeed Trump

Blogger Young Heaving Bosoms of Liberty April 19, 2016 8:41 PM  

Ted always looks as if he's just pooped 'em.

Blogger tz April 19, 2016 8:46 PM  

@3 - Delegates are committed for the first ballot. The second ballot is mixed. Rrraphel Eduarrrdo seems to be trying to win on the second ballot.

Blogger Cinco April 19, 2016 8:48 PM  

Trump crushing it early... Wish I had some popcorn!

Blogger tz April 19, 2016 8:50 PM  

Rrraphel Eduarrrdo was on with Hannity, and even he called him on his statements. He won "elections"?

I can appreciate that Trump wouldn't spend millions to navigate the mazes in CO and WY, especially since they would vote majority Cruz in elections (like UT). Trump could have won a handful of delegates but only at great expense. Sort of like what Jeb! tried. Trump is too smart.

Blogger David Power April 19, 2016 8:53 PM  

Theoretically, does the convention rules committee have the power to unbind delegates for the first ballot?

Blogger Cinco April 19, 2016 8:56 PM  

@tz

You do have to appreciate that kind of thinking in a candidate. Setting up the ground game required to do what Cruz did their would have cost big money. Instead, Trump complains about it, continues to show that the GOPe is really running the show and get more free publicity.

I am really beginning to wonder just how smart this man is. Clearly beyond my grasp.

Anonymous 11B April 19, 2016 9:01 PM  

Trump could have won a handful of delegates but only at great expense.

Maybe a President Trump will use a similar cost/benefit analysis before embarking on foreign adventures.

Blogger Were-Puppy April 19, 2016 9:01 PM  

Semi-OT:

I always find Teddies Dad an interesting guy.

For some reason, I can't proces what this means. Or if it is just a conspiracy thing.

BOMBSHELL: CRUZ'S FATHER WAS A CIA LINKED CUBAN EXILED TO CANADA TO WORK FOR BUSH OIL AFTER JFK

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMz_ucv7PDw

Blogger tz April 19, 2016 9:05 PM  

@12 - I'm from Wyoming and understand exactly what would have been required to get a few dozen delegates.

Cruz is desperate so can only win on a second ballot so getting CO and WY is really important as well as co-opting manchurian delegates.

Were I CorrupTED, I would do the same thing.

Trump, if invited to build a hotel in North Korea kept running into nonsense would likely leave and build hotels elsewhere. That is the choice.

Blogger Were-Puppy April 19, 2016 9:05 PM  

Just saw this:
Donald Trump the projected winner
https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/722590664391835654

Blogger David Power April 19, 2016 9:08 PM  

Drudge are calling it:

Trump %61
Karsich %24
Cruz %16

Blogger rumpole5 April 19, 2016 9:11 PM  

@ Cinco
It is so refreshing to read your analysis. Trump knew just what he was doing with Co.and Wy. A win for either Trump or Cruz is going to humiliate the GOPe because Both Trump and Cruz are insiders who know where the bodies are buried, and I hope the GOPe is about to experience a zombie apocalypse! Vote for whichever man is nominated, and enjoy the show!

Anonymous VFM #6306 April 19, 2016 9:13 PM  

Hope Trump picks Chuck Tingle for running mate.

"Trump-Tingle 2016: Ride the Wild Raptor!"

Blogger SciVo April 19, 2016 9:13 PM  

David Power wrote:Theoretically, does the convention rules committee have the power to unbind delegates for the first ballot?

I don't think so. I believe that is set at the state level, but I don't know what happens when state and national rules conflict.

But it's irrelevant on two counts: they could easily achieve the same effect by tinkering with the number of delegates required, and wossname head of the RNC has called on them to leave the win conditions alone.

Blogger Were-Puppy April 19, 2016 9:15 PM  

Found this which shows each district - pick republican and hit the search

http://nyenr.elections.state.ny.us/home.aspx

Blogger Were-Puppy April 19, 2016 9:17 PM  

This one is funny :P

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2016/apr/19/new-york-primary-live-results-trump-clinton

Blogger tz April 19, 2016 9:24 PM  

There is a realignment.

I couldn't predict I would support (to the extent of VFM fealty) a profane NY-er.

It is not that I think Trump great, but that he is Heracles who will clean out the Aegean stables.

(I fixed multiple software problems in a "stable" release, and I called my git branch "Aegean").

And Trump will handle the Stymphigian guano.

No little portion is active schadenfreude where I wish just desert ill upon those who rejected Ron Paul (ok, we're going to have to do this the hard way).

In any case, I will be better off 8 years from now as long as the crony horrors are still smoking craters.

Anonymous WaterBoy April 19, 2016 9:37 PM  

SciVo: "wossname head of the RNC"

Reince Priebus...though for some reason it always looks like "Prince Rebus" to me.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash April 19, 2016 9:39 PM  

You do have to appreciate that kind of thinking in a candidate. Setting up the ground game required to do what Cruz did their would have cost big money.

I think DJT looked at what it would cost to compete ($$$$), how many delegates he was likely to get (---) vs how much enthusiasm and free press he could generate by calling Cruz out.
Looked at that way, it's a simple decision. The fact that it also dispirited Cruz supporters is just gravy. If the GOP could have restrained themselves instead of demanding and getting 100%, trying to run up the score, they'd have hurt themselves much less.

Blogger Aeoli Pera April 19, 2016 9:41 PM  

Were-Puppy wrote:Semi-OT:

I always find Teddies Dad an interesting guy.

For some reason, I can't proces what this means. Or if it is just a conspiracy thing.

BOMBSHELL: CRUZ'S FATHER WAS A CIA LINKED CUBAN EXILED TO CANADA TO WORK FOR BUSH OIL AFTER JFK

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMz_ucv7PDw


Business as usual. Obama, W Bush, Clinton, and HW Bush were all CIA. Dunno about Reagan, but I wouldn't be surprised because Hollywood.

Blogger Tim April 19, 2016 9:41 PM  

He got the big victory he needed.....and spent his entire speech whining which did not help him at all. He needed to appear strong and act like the presumptive nominee and winner.

Blogger Were-Puppy April 19, 2016 9:42 PM  

"A recent girls soccer game in Elkhorn, Wisconsin, was suspended after a group of Elkhorn students directed a series of pro-Trump chants at Latino students on the opposing team."

http://www.breitbart.com/tech/2016/04/19/girls-soccer-game-suspended-over-traumatizing-pro-trump-chants/

ROFLMAO!

Blogger Aeoli Pera April 19, 2016 9:43 PM  

VFM #6306 wrote:Hope Trump picks Chuck Tingle for running mate.

"Trump-Tingle 2016: Ride the Wild Raptor!"


Those who fail to ride the raptor will be ridden by it. So it was written.

Blogger Were-Puppy April 19, 2016 9:46 PM  

@24 WaterBoy
SciVo: "wossname head of the RNC"

Reince Priebus...though for some reason it always looks like "Prince Rebus" to me.
---

My favorite was when Doc Carson mumbled the name during a debate and it sounded like Rinse Pubis

Anonymous #8601 Jean Valjean April 19, 2016 9:50 PM  

No more Lyin' Ted. It's now Senator Cruz.

I'm not sure I like the new "Presidential" Trump.

Anonymous kfg April 19, 2016 9:50 PM  

Rincewind Piebus? I didn't even know he had a last name.

Anonymous VFM #6306 April 19, 2016 9:51 PM  

Don't be daft Tim. He didn't "need" anything from a victory speech.

Holy Moses though, did Trump kick Cruz's balls thru Fruit Ninja's teeth or vice versa?

Cruz is never going to see a mailbox without thinking of that damn postman's son.

Blogger Patrick April 19, 2016 10:01 PM  

We now know exactly how much an endorsement from the National Review is worth.

Anonymous Faceless April 19, 2016 10:01 PM  

Were-Puppy wrote:@24 WaterBoy

SciVo: "wossname head of the RNC"

Reince Priebus...though for some reason it always looks like "Prince Rebus" to me.

---

My favorite was when Doc Carson mumbled the name during a debate and it sounded like Rinse Pubis


I've stuck with autocorrect's suggestion: Rank Pubic

Blogger Were-Puppy April 19, 2016 10:04 PM  

If you want to see some real cruzbot action, check out the right scoop :P

Anonymous Northern Observer April 19, 2016 10:12 PM  

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/new-york-primary-presidential-election-2016/

For the districts with any data available, Trump is leading in every single one. But, there are three that he is below the 50% mark (but still leading).

As of 2010 EST

Anonymous VFM #6306 April 19, 2016 10:14 PM  

New York values ending Cruz's campaign. You knew that one was gonna come back to bite him.

Blogger SciVo April 19, 2016 10:16 PM  

Still no data from CD4, but Trump looks to be on track for 90+ out of 95.

Anonymous Bart April 19, 2016 10:17 PM  

Jesus, did Trump hire Kang and Kodo as his speech writer? Twirling, always twirling, towards freedm

Blogger TheLiberatorOfBados April 19, 2016 10:21 PM  

Cruz is finished. He can't get enough delegates now to win. He needs to drop out. Otherwise it's going to become even more clear that the GOPe is only interested in remaining in power. The hostile takeover is going to happen, or the GOP will be destroyed and replaced.

Anonymous VFM #6306 April 19, 2016 10:22 PM  

Trump can say anything. People still don't get it. He has no information to deliver. This is by design.

Anonymous Northern Observer April 19, 2016 10:22 PM  

With no data for 5 districts, it looks like the worst Trump can do at this point is 87 and the best is 92.

Either is still better than a kick in then pants.

Blogger Lazarus April 19, 2016 10:24 PM  

Dear Cruz Dudes. Nobody wants a President with a cube for a head. Get real

Anonymous jOHN MOSBY April 19, 2016 10:25 PM  

24. WaterBoy
RINSE PUBUS.

Anonymous Bobby Farr April 19, 2016 10:26 PM  

Trump looks likely to be below 50% in two districts and five more are unclear, which would put him at 88-93 out of 95. Almost as good as winner take all. If he can actually count on PA's unbound delegates after winning PA, 1237 is still on the table.

Blogger SciVo April 19, 2016 10:26 PM  

@43:

Try The Green Papers.

Blogger Lazarus April 19, 2016 10:28 PM  

Am I dead again?

Blogger praetorian April 19, 2016 10:30 PM  

Mmmmmmmmmmmm.

Chaos.

Blogger Patrick April 19, 2016 10:32 PM  

With all of Cruz's numbers you need to add an asterisk due to the strategic voters. He truly bombed tonight.

Blogger Lazarus April 19, 2016 10:34 PM  

jOHN MOSBY wrote:24. WaterBoy

RINSE PUBUS.


Mr. Mosby. Clik the number and copy the text then paste or just put "@24" and space.

Sure, we are old, but one must make and effort, eh?

Anonymous kfg April 19, 2016 10:37 PM  

On the other side of the isle, Hillary takes the popular vote with more than 50%, by virtue of winning in NYC Metro/The Island, Syracuse and Rochester, which isn't suprising, but Bernie is taking the rest of the state, including Buffalo and Albany, which is surprising.

This is going to be a disturbing win for the Hillary.

Blogger Jon M April 19, 2016 10:41 PM  

Once Cruz is mathematically eliminated from a first-ballot win the whole nature of the questions directed his way will change. After tonight he is going to get hammered by questions that operate under the assumption of, "you can't win, so why are you still running?"

It won't be explicit, but it will hang there over his head, implicit in every conversation he has.

This just keeps getting better.

Anonymous Rolf April 19, 2016 10:42 PM  

And for those that want the link
Decision Desk HQ

With 65% reporting, Trump has 59%, with a majority in every country reporting except New York County.

Blogger Lazarus April 19, 2016 10:45 PM  

Cruz had downplayed the billionaire businessman's win as little more than "a politician winning his home state," according to The Associated Press.

Patrick wrote:With all of Cruz's numbers you need to add an asterisk due to the strategic voters. He truly bombed tonight.
The Texas Senator left New York before the polls closed, turning his attention to Pennsylvania, where he delivered a speech calling on Americans to join together to move the country forward.

"Move forward" is dipshit speak for "sweep it under the rug"

Financial advisers use it a lot, especially when their recommendations go tits up.

Anonymous jOHN MOSBY April 19, 2016 10:45 PM  

Yeh, old boy but not stupid. What is this nonsense you yap of, j- class ?
Not me, sonny. I'm gonna throw it out there.You don't likee ?
Don't care. You savvy ?

Blogger The Other Robot April 19, 2016 10:48 PM  

I think the Booger Eater in Chief is planning his next upset win!

Blogger Were-Puppy April 19, 2016 10:51 PM  

You know you got a mudhole stomped in yer ass when the Son of a Mailmans campaign is heckling you

https://twitter.com/JWGOP/status/722598265124880384

Blogger Nick S April 19, 2016 10:53 PM  

Since Trump publicly vows to reject any delegates he did not win via mobile vulgus, Cruz is still in it.

Blogger Were-Puppy April 19, 2016 10:56 PM  

https://i.imgflip.com/10qcz8.jpg

Blogger Lazarus April 19, 2016 10:57 PM  

jOHN MOSBY wrote:Yeh, old boy but not stupid. What is this nonsense you yap of, j- class ?

Not me, sonny. I'm gonna throw it out there.You don't likee ?

Don't care. You savvy ?


Me savvy, Mr. Mosby, long time.

Blogger The Other Robot April 19, 2016 10:58 PM  

According to the Green Papers, Kasich has stolen 4 delegates from Trump.

MSM claims Cruz wins big in New York!!!

Blogger Were-Puppy April 19, 2016 10:59 PM  

Remember how Narco Lubio would give these victory speeches after each loss?

Anonymous Bobby Farr April 19, 2016 11:01 PM  

Kasich claims to have already wrapped up most of Indiana's support for a second ballot vote http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2016/04/18/and-indiana-winner-president-john-kasich/83188214/

Blogger Scott6584 April 19, 2016 11:03 PM  

Kind of Hilarious that Trump is wining in every county - except Manhattan. LOL

Blogger Were-Puppy April 19, 2016 11:04 PM  

So if the Son of a Mailman is sneaking around getting delegates for the 2nd ballot, that might set back Tundra Teds attempts and got to a 3rd ballot?

Anonymous kfg April 19, 2016 11:04 PM  

More votes in, Erie county(Buffalo) flips to Hillary. Normality is restored.

Bummer.

Blogger Fechangku Chen April 19, 2016 11:06 PM  

Whether such close continuity in terms of patterns of leadership and political power-holding make it possible to define Jordan as having entered a new epoch post-King Hussein is difficult. There were, Cheap Jordan Shoes, in the first few years of Abduallah’s reign, popular expectations of change. There was a belief that a new, young, dynamic leader, free of much of his late father’s ‘political baggage’ (especially in terms of regional antagonism) might accelerate a programme of political liberalisations - initiated and then frozen if not reversed by Hussein.

As part of a popular wish for sweeping reform many hoped that the new monarch would lead a campaign against corruption in high places, tackle a faltering economy with vigour and resolve and put rule of law and respect for democracy and human rights at the top of his agenda. Air Jordan Shoes,In so doing he was also expected to replace or to see that his assumption to the throne might be an opportunity to replace the late King’s former advisers with a new ‘liberal’ elite of ministers and senior officials. This has not strictly been the case. The King has maintained ‘continuity’ by making a virtue out of keeping officials who served his father. ‘In fact, many people around me were groomed by my father, and their backgrounds arc clear to all’, stated Abdullah as he responded to sustained criticisms in 2008 that he had surrounded himself by ‘liberals’ who were a danger to the country and its economy (Abdullah,2008). Advocates of political reform, moreover, Retro Jordans, have grown more despondent as Jordan has been compelled to sustain dependencies not only on the United States but also on the conservative pro-Western Arab regimes of the Gulf.

Anonymous jOHN MOSBY April 19, 2016 11:07 PM  

57. The Other Robot April 19, 2016 10:48 PM
"I think the Booger Eater in Chief is planning his next upset win!"
The most5 fucked up part is the inbred fucks that loves them some Cruz. U huh, THE DAY OF THE ROPE will befall your sorry asses soon, God willing.

Blogger Cicatrizatic April 19, 2016 11:08 PM  

In 2012 Romney won the NY primary with 62% and 119,000 votes. Trump is going to get about 500,000 votes

Blogger Were-Puppy April 19, 2016 11:08 PM  

Wow, someone up there not only posted in the wrong topic, I think maybe in the entire wrong blog :P

Blogger Were-Puppy April 19, 2016 11:10 PM  

This is from that Guardian page:

Dems
Hillary Clinton 875,593 57.3%
Bernie Sanders 652,764 42.7%
1,528,357 total votes

REPUBLICANS
Donald Trump 421,127 59.8%
John Kasich 177,625 25.2%
Ted Cruz 105,004 14.9%
703,756 total votes

Blogger Scott6584 April 19, 2016 11:11 PM  

CNN showing that Trump has won 79 of the 81 delegates allocated by district. Expected to also win the 14 statewide delegates.

Final Result:

Trump - 93 delegates
Kasich - 2 delegates

Blogger Mike Romkey April 19, 2016 11:12 PM  

The Guardian? CNN? Where am I?

Blogger The Other Robot April 19, 2016 11:12 PM  

@68: Whoa, that's the best piece of spam I have seen since the one about the Preparation H sales man on the golf course.

Blogger Scott6584 April 19, 2016 11:16 PM  

NBC Reporting that The Donald has won 88 delegates, Kasich has won 3 delegates. 4 delegates still pending.

Anonymous Great Again April 19, 2016 11:18 PM  

Trump will finish with 90 or 91 delegates. He has won all CD's. He failed to get to 50% in CD's 10, 12, 20 and 24. CD 13 is a 50/50 tossup with 94% of precincts reporting.

Blogger SciVo April 19, 2016 11:29 PM  

What @77 said. Triangulating between The Green Papers, The New York Times and New York State Board of Elections.

Blogger lowercaseb April 19, 2016 11:34 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Alec Rawls April 19, 2016 11:34 PM  

Off topic, but Vox might like to see this, from Instapundit:

“How can I say that I don’t want to support students who are gun enthusiasts [write recommendations for them], without getting put on some sort of list?”

http://pjmedia.com/instapundit/231842/

My comment:

Got to hand this one to Vox Day: "SJW's always project." While proudly declaring that he blacklists pro-gun students this dirtbag Prof. is worried that someone might put him on a blacklist.

Blogger lowercaseb April 19, 2016 11:36 PM  

Those NooYawk values sure are a bitch, eh Teddy?

Blogger The Other Robot April 19, 2016 11:41 PM  

@80: I think you missed an important fact. The prof is a she!

Anonymous Faceless April 19, 2016 11:49 PM  

Shapiro tweets it, Dana Loesch reads it as if it's an original thought.

More votes in an open primary in Texas for Republicans than votes in a closed Republican primary in New York! So there!

Oh, the horrors. The gay old party doesn't know how to have fun.

Anonymous Ain April 19, 2016 11:51 PM  

Looks like somebody has earned a spot on a list of another sort.

Anonymous Faceless April 19, 2016 11:52 PM  

They let Brit Hume stop taking his pills, or maybe MeGyn cut off the mild flirtations: (paraphrase)

It's just not Cruz's year. The ultimate insider pretending to be the ultimate outsider got caught by an actual outsider entering the race, and Trump stole his voters.

Anonymous Faceless April 19, 2016 11:54 PM  

Mike Romkey wrote:The Guardian? CNN? Where am I?

Dana Loesch was invited to trigger everybody's IBS on Fox News, plus, well, you know, the Ilk have to stiffen their thumbs in a lot of pies.

Blogger praetorian April 19, 2016 11:56 PM  

90+ delegates.

The fire has risen a sufficient amount for the evening.

Blogger YIH April 19, 2016 11:58 PM  

Fechangku Chen:
So I take it you voted for Cruz?

Anonymous Mavwreck April 20, 2016 12:02 AM  

Bobby Farr wrote:If he can actually count on PA's unbound delegates after winning PA, 1237 is still on the table.

PA's unbound delegates are utterly unbound. There is nothing compelling them to vote according to the state's popular vote in the Republican primary. In fact, there's nothing in the law or party rules compelling them to vote for anyone. They are free to vote according to their conscience, their preference, or the roll of the dice.

Blogger The Other Robot April 20, 2016 12:05 AM  

@89: Ahhh, so that is how Kim Kardashian gets on the ballot?

Blogger ray April 20, 2016 12:07 AM  

#23 -- "It is not that I think Trump great, but that he is Heracles who will clean out the Aegean stables."


Right. You are not fired.

You don't dig the foundation, you muck out the (extensive) crud, and then dig the foundation. Even I know this.

If you start to see lots of Equalities Officers and Human Resources Associates suddenly report annual income as Celery Harvesters, well, you'll know Trump's handling the job.

Anonymous jOHN MOSBY April 20, 2016 12:08 AM  

Fucktard, that's what Hume is.
Trump's votes are his, not the Cruzturds, no matter how bad that rat bastard or his phony-assed followers want it so.
SWtop trying to steal delegates, Crud Turds or pay the price.

Blogger Scott6584 April 20, 2016 12:14 AM  

History Lesson:

In 2012, Kay Bailey Hutchison stepped down as the Senior Senator from Texas, and left an open seat. Ted Cruz, along with David Dewhurst, Tom Leppert and 6 other candidates ran for the GOP nomination as Senator. Cruz did NOT receive the most votes on election night. In fact, he lost by more than 10%.

Results:
44.6% - David Dewhurst
34.3% - Ted Cruz
13.3% - Tom Leppert
7.9% - split among 6 other candidates

Looks pretty similar to Trump, Cruz, Kasich, plus 6 other candidates with pledged delegates.

Because no candidate won a majority, there was a run-off election. In that run off election, Cruz dominated on the second ballot.

Results:
56.8% - Ted Cruz
43.2% - David Dewhurst

No one questions the legitimacy of Ted Cruz's victory in Texas in 2012.

A strategy that incorporates a runoff election, and attempting to win on a second ballot after the other candidates have been cleared out in a multiple candidate race with many candidates is a time honored strategy that has been used since the founding of the USA. Pretending that Ted Cruz is trying to "steal" the election simply because he is campaigning to win on a second ballot is simply unserious. It ignores the history of thousands and thousands of elections that have happened all over the USA since before the USA was even a country, and there were still 13 British Colonies.

If Trump manages to win on a first ballot, then he can avoid a run-off election among the delegates at the convention. If he cannot, then he needs a coherent strategy to win a runoff. This is where he is being out-campaigned by Cruz. And the shake-up in his campaign administration this week is finally recognizing the possibility that he may have to mount a secondary campaign among the delegates themselves.

Cruz had no problem winning the Republican nomination for Senate on a second ballot in Texas 4 years ago. And he will have no qualms winning on a second ballot in Cleveland in July. The pretense that this is unfair is simply ridiculous. If no candidate wins a majority, then ALL the candidates had more people vote against them than for them, and NONE of the candidates have a claim on the nomination. The proper path is to proceed to a runoff election, which is what the Convention process will do.

There is NOTHING underhanded or sneaky about any of this.

Anonymous An Observer April 20, 2016 12:14 AM  

1237 is still on the table even with only 17 out of PA. And given Cruz's first ballot elimination tonight, it's very slightly less likely future unbounds will dance with Cruz.

Anonymous Bobby Farr April 20, 2016 12:14 AM  

@89 True, but the media is reporting that a majority of the PA unbound delegates have publicly stated that they will vote for whomever wins the vote in PA.

Blogger The Other Robot April 20, 2016 12:16 AM  

95 delegates, 95 comments. Coincidence? I think not!

Anonymous An Observer April 20, 2016 12:16 AM  

Apples are not Kumquats, Scott. The run-off involved the actual voters getting another bite at the apple. Why do cruzbots do this all the time?

Blogger ray April 20, 2016 12:18 AM  

"Reince Priebus...though for some reason it always looks like "Prince Rebus" to me."


That's good.

It's one of those 'weird coincidence' names. I believe in weird but not coincidence. Don't count this guy out IOW.

Anonymous jOHN MOSBY April 20, 2016 12:19 AM  

"Shapiro tweets it, Dana Loesch reads it as if it's an original thought."
That dim witted bitch needs to go back to mommy-bloggy land.

Blogger praetorian April 20, 2016 12:22 AM  

There is NOTHING underhanded or sneaky about any of this.

Huh. Then why do you feel the need to say so?

Anonymous Bobby Farr April 20, 2016 12:22 AM  

@93 Poor analogy. A run off election for Senate involves the same voters voting again from the top two candidates. A second ballot at the GOP convention would simply be party insiders bypassing the will of the voters and choosing their own preferred candidate.

Blogger praetorian April 20, 2016 12:25 AM  

With Cruz...

you lose

Blogger Timothy MEEHAN April 20, 2016 12:27 AM  

The SPECTRE of deportation.

Shill-a-ry just said that.

Blogger Timothy MEEHAN April 20, 2016 12:30 AM  

@2 While setting up a box at work yesterday I plugged cnn.com I to the browser to test it. The infamous "NYC: Trump is not one of us" article come up.

So I edited the .hosts file too.

Blogger The Other Robot April 20, 2016 12:34 AM  

@103: Can I just say I like the Spectre of Deportation?

Blogger Scott6584 April 20, 2016 12:37 AM  

praetorian wrote:There is NOTHING underhanded or sneaky about any of this.

Huh. Then why do you feel the need to say so?


Because Trump is going around loudly declaring the process is "rigged" and "unfair". Trumpsters are saying that Cruz is being sneaky.

Whose fault is it that Trump did not get delegates loyal to him elected at the local level? He didn't even make an attempt to organize at the local level. He has run a completely Top-down campaign, with almost no thought to securing delegates loyal to himself.

Furthermore, he has purposefully alienated many Republicans, and Trump supporters continue to believe that the Republican Party should simply lay down and allow itself to be destroyed by those who loudly declare that their intent is to destroy it. If your declared intent is to destroy the Republican Party, then how do you expect Republican activists to support you on a second ballot. And threatening them will NOT cause them to be more loyal; rather, it will alienate them even further.

Trump made a major step forward tonight by winning almost all the delegates in New York. But because of both his strategy, he has neglected winning over the local delegates, who are the ones who select the state delegates, who are the ones who vote at the Convention. And because of his rhetoric, not only has he failed to win the loyalty of party activists, but is in fact alienating many of them, who may drop him quickly once the law no longer demands they vote for him.

More than anything, this is a failure of the Trump campaign to understand the process of winning an election. And if he cannot "hire all the best people" to understand the relatively simple process of electing his own delegates - something that has been going on for over a century in Republican elections, then how can he claim to have the wherewithal to run the Federal Leviathan?

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother April 20, 2016 12:42 AM  

Scotty Numbers, better known as:

SPERGOTRON 3000.

Blogger Scott6584 April 20, 2016 12:42 AM  

Bobby Farr wrote:@93 Poor analogy. A run off election for Senate involves the same voters voting again from the top two candidates. A second ballot at the GOP convention would simply be party insiders bypassing the will of the voters and choosing their own preferred candidate.

It is still a run-off election. Trump has gone "all in" on a campaign strategy to win a majority of delegates. In a field of 16 Republican candidates, that was always an odd strategy. He should have been organizing to win a run-off election at the Convention from the very beginning, because with so many candidates, it was always a high probability that no one candidate would secure a majority of delegates.

That he did not is simple incompetence.

Blogger Scott6584 April 20, 2016 12:45 AM  

Bobby,

To be clear, this is not a popular vote election. It is, was, and always has been about collecting a majority of delegates, not a majority of popular votes. If Trump failed to understand that, then his incompetence is staggering.

But I think Trump does understand it. He is simply demagogueing the issue to cover for his incompetence at the local level. It is his only option now, and he's using it.

Anonymous An Observer April 20, 2016 1:01 AM  

Scott, you're essentially arguing that the Republican nominee in the general should forget about winning the states' voters and their corresponding electoral votes and instead just focus on making sure enough electors are faithless to win in the final Electoral College tally.

Blogger praetorian April 20, 2016 1:13 AM  

Furthermore, he has purposefully alienated many Republicans, and Trump supporters continue to believe that the Republican Party should simply lay down and allow itself to be destroyed by those who loudly declare that their intent is to destroy it. If your declared intent is to destroy the Republican Party, then how do you expect Republican activists to support you on a second ballot.

Purposefully? D-d-d-destory the republican party? I, I, I think I'm going to faint...

SIT YOUR MONKEY ASS DOWN. GOD EMPEROR HAS GOT A THREE POINT PLAN TO FIX EVERYTHING, SCOTT. HE GONNA END THE DUST BOWL, HEAL THE ECONOMY, CURE ACNE AND CAR SICKNESS AS WELL.

All in one week, Scott. One week.

Blogger Scott6584 April 20, 2016 1:15 AM  

The "run-off" elections at the national level have never been by popular vote. They have always been conducted among duly elected delegates or representatives. In the Republican Party, the duly elected delegates from each state will vote until a candidate gets a majority of delegates.

In the General Election, if no candidate gets a majority of Electoral College Votes, then the people don't get to vote again. Instead, the House of Representatives votes for the Presidential Candidates, and they choose who will be President. (This is why I was so angry at the Supreme Court in 2000. There was no Constitutional crisis. The Constitution already makes provision for when no candidate gets a majority.)

This actually happened in 1824, when there was only one single political party, and 4 candidates split the Electoral college vote:

Andrew Jackson - 41.4% popular vote, 99 Electoral College Votes
John Quincy Adams - 30.9% PV, 84 ECV's
Henry Clay - 13.0% PV, 47 ECV's
William Harris Crawford - 11.2% PV, 41 ECV's

The "run-off" election occurred, according to the rules of the US Constitution, and the House of Representatives elected John Quincy Adams as President. Supporters of Jackson cried foul, but they could not dispute the validity of the election since the process was clearly defined in the rulebook, i.e. the US Constitution.

Jackson ran again in 1828, won, and was re-elected in 1832.

Ironically, both Adams and Jackson are part of my family tree - Jackson on my father's side, and Adams on my mothers. I suspect each would be appalled that they became a part of the same family 139 years after their bitter election battle in 1824.

Anonymous An Observer April 20, 2016 1:23 AM  

So I take it you'll cheerfully support Trump when he goes into the convention with 1237+ delegates, then.

Blogger Scott6584 April 20, 2016 1:27 AM  

An Observer wrote:Scott, you're essentially arguing that the Republican nominee in the general should forget about winning the states' voters and their corresponding electoral votes and instead just focus on making sure enough electors are faithless to win in the final Electoral College tally.

I am arguing no such thing. The delegates who are bound on the first ballot should honor their commitment.

The point of releasing delegates after the first ballot is that if all delegates were held to their first ballot position, then no candidate would ever get a majority. What you are arguing is either 1) for a perpetual stalemate, or 2) that a plurality of votes should determine the winner.

Releasing the delegates after the first ballot is far different from being a faithless Elector. It is more akin to the vote being pushed into the House of Representatives. The delegates have dual roles.

The first role, on the first ballot, is to faithfully vote according to the rules of delegate allocation in their respective states. In the event of no candidate achieving a majority, it is then that they take on a different role like the Representatives in Congress in voting for a Nominee.

In 1824, Jackson lost the election because he alienated too many Congressman during his campaign, and they simply would not support him - even though he won 10% more of the popular vote. The mistake that Trump and his supporters are making is alienating many Republicans, and more importantly, the Republican activists who willingly get involved at the local and state levels.

There is actually a suggestion that Trump supporters Biker gangs intimidate and threaten delegates at both their homes and at the Convention in Cleveland. This is NOT the way to win supporters.

Of course, if Trump wins a majority of pledged delegates prior to the convention (as Jackson did in 1828 and 1832), then he won't have to worry about the second ballot. That is the task he has set for himself.

Blogger Scott6584 April 20, 2016 1:30 AM  

An Observer wrote:So I take it you'll cheerfully support Trump when he goes into the convention with 1237+ delegates, then.

Well I'm sure not going to vote for Hillary or Bernie.

I'll support Trump, and argue vociferously for him. I won't promise anything about being cheerful, though.

Blogger Cogitans Iuvenis April 20, 2016 1:34 AM  

Look at you double down there.

Blogger Scott6584 April 20, 2016 1:35 AM  

praetorian wrote:
Purposefully? D-d-d-destory the republican party? I, I, I think I'm going to faint...

SIT YOUR MONKEY ASS DOWN. GOD EMPEROR HAS GOT A THREE POINT PLAN TO FIX EVERYTHING, SCOTT. HE GONNA END THE DUST BOWL, HEAL THE ECONOMY, CURE ACNE AND CAR SICKNESS AS WELL.

All in one week, Scott. One week.


ROTFLMAO

Now that is funny...

Anonymous Jack Amok April 20, 2016 1:43 AM  

History Lesson:

From 2012?

Shit, that's "Current Events" around here. History didn't start when you fell off the turnip truck, y'know.

Blogger Eskyman April 20, 2016 1:54 AM  

Well I for one welcome our orange-tufted slayer of tricksy Canadians!

Somebody please turn on the blower- there's a stench of Establishment Criminal Cartel wafting about here. Smells like butthurt to me!

Blogger Scott6584 April 20, 2016 1:54 AM  

It might surprise a lot of people, but

...there is nothing in the Constitution about the electoral college representatives of each state being popularly elected. Article II, Section 1 simply says that “Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress: but no Senator or Representative, or Person holding an Office of Trust or Profit under the United States, shall be appointed an Elector.”

That is, they could do it by popular vote, or the legislature could draw names from a hat, or have an elimination by pistols at dawn, or even have the electors selected on the basis of whoever survived a reality-television show (a method that might be appropriate in the case of Mr. Trump). Any of these would be perfectly constitutional.

Beyond that, the Founders would be appalled at the very notion of political parties, organizations for which there is no constitutional basis (they aren’t mentioned in the document). But given that they exist, there is no reason to expect them to be democratic, either (despite the fact that the name of one of them implies that).

There is a reason that the Republican Party is named that; in theory, it is a party of federalism, states' rights, and…well…the republic. It was founded as a reaction to defend it from the populist excesses of Andrew Jackson’s racist “Democratic” Party and the anti-immigration “Know-Nothing” Party" (the latter of which has apparently re-arisen in the form of Trump supporters). The first resolution at its formation in 1856 was “That the maintenance of the principles promulgated in the Declaration of Independence, and embodied in the Federal Constitution are essential to the preservation of our Republican institutions, and that the Federal Constitution, the rights of the States, and the union of the States, must and shall be preserved.”

Quoted from this article:https://pjmedia.com/election/2016/04/19/no-mr-trump-we-are-not-supposed-to-be-a-democracy/

Blogger Harold April 20, 2016 2:11 AM  

On the electoral college- I wish every state did it the way Maine and I think Nebraska does. One EV for each CD won, and two for the statewide winner. But, that's off topic, though discussed above.

Looking at the NY results- who the hell are all these people voting for Kasich, the ultimate RINO establishment candidate that everyone says they don't want this year?

On the DEM side, NY's CDs followed a national trend. 4 of the 5 CDs that went for Sanders are 89.7%+ white only, the 20th being the exception, with an 80% white only population (according to official census data from http://www.census.gov/mycd/?eml=gd ) The 15th, 12.5% white only, 28% Sanders.

Anonymous Scintan April 20, 2016 2:18 AM  

There is NOTHING underhanded or sneaky about any of this.

Bullshit

Blogger Snidely Whiplash April 20, 2016 2:27 AM  

Scott6584 wrote:More than anything, this is a failure of the Trump campaign to understand the process of winning an election.
What you're seeing and failing to understand is how Trump, with the gleeful co-operation of the GOPe and it's poster boy Teddy Cruz, is taking a caucus he would have certainly overwhelmingly lost, and turned it into a victory on the moral level of war.

This is 4G politics right here. RIGHT FUCKING HERE and you're too dumb to see it. This move in particular sewed up the nomination for Trump.

Tell me again how smart Cuz is.

Anonymous Philalethes April 20, 2016 2:35 AM  

@23. tz

It is not that I think Trump great, but that he is Heracles who will clean out the Aegean stables.

Btw, it's Augean; Aegean is the Sea.

Blogger Scott6584 April 20, 2016 2:35 AM  

I find it both shocking and outrageously funny that the ONLY county Trump failed to carry was his home county of Manhattan. That is just fall down funny.

By the way, I did a little delegate math, and have Trump securing 1179 delegates, with Cruz around 915. Neither candidate makes it to the finish line, and thus a run-off election at the Convention is likely.

Looking at the actual slates of delegates secured so far, among the 845 Trump delegates, only about 362 are Trump loyalists, while Cruz has around 772 loyalists so far. Kasich has about 85. This is where the second ballot comes into play, and Cruz is way ahead.

If my math is correct, Trump will need to work out some type of deal with Kasich to secure the nomination on the first ballot, or he's likely toast.

Blogger Doom April 20, 2016 2:38 AM  

Scott6584,

"I suspect each would be appalled that they became a part of the same family 139 years after their bitter election battle in 1824." -- In one sense, perhaps. In another, not so much. How many years do you suppose their prodigy kept suggesting "fuck them", about the other family? Keep begging for it, you get what you wish. Ought to be careful what you wish. Could get screwed.

Snidely,

Cruz is only smart if he did this FOR Trump. Did he? Are they cooking a backroom deal in order to make sure GOPe doesn't get it? Are they working together? I am not sure we will ever know. And, yes, it is possible. Though, if Trump doesn't actually sew it up, we will know if Cruz is on the gooder side (as good as it gets) through his action regarding his delegates, if it hits a split decision. If he gets out and sends them to Trump, we will know for sure. If not then not.

Blogger Scott6584 April 20, 2016 2:47 AM  

Snidely,

That ingenious 4G political strategy only works if Trump secures a majority of delegates prior to the Convention. (I have him falling about 58 delegates short). But I doubt that the Party Activists who show up to the convention will be very impressed by a guy who has spent several months declaring from the mountain tops that they are corrupt. And it is those selfsame Activists whose votes he will need to secure the nomination at the convention.

Blogger Badger Brigadon April 20, 2016 2:49 AM  

good idea, scott, let's blow up the convention!

Blogger Scott6584 April 20, 2016 3:00 AM  

Doom,

It is not so much Cruz and Trump themselves doing deals to deny the Establishment. Reports out of Tennessee have the Trump and Cruz delegates getting together to make sure that ONLY Cruz or Trump can win. So, it really is more about the local delegates, who become free agents after the first couple of ballots. They can make whatever deals they want without regard for the wishes of the candidates themselves.

The big danger for Trump is that if half or more of his pledged delegates are actually Cruz supporters, then that comes into play when writing the rules for the convention. They can block Kasich and Rubio from transferring their delegates to Trump on the first ballot. Even if they are legally required to vote for him, they don't have to make rules that are favorable to him getting the nomination if he doesn't secure a majority prior to the convention.

Also, about 154 of the Rubio delegates have self-identified as being Cruz supporters. If Rubio drops out from the race (currently, he's just suspended his candidacy), then those 154 shift into the Cruz column on the first ballot. That would bump Cruz up to 1069 delegates on the first Ballot. Throw in 4 more from Bush and Fiorina, and Cruz gets to 1073 on the first ballot.

If Cruz has already secured the loyalty of about half of Trump's current delegate count, it will easily put Cruz loyalists in the majority for writing the rules, and also give him an easy victory on the second ballot.

Blogger Scott6584 April 20, 2016 3:12 AM  

Just to be clear, what I am saying is that Cruz may ALREADY have secured a 2nd ballot victory, and a majority of delegates loyal to him who will write the rules of the convention.

So, at this point, it is possible that Trump's ONLY hope to win is securing a pledged delegate majority BEFORE the convention, and that is an iffy proposition for him. That's why he's screaming so loudly about the "unfairness" of having to, you know, actually win before declaring victory.

Anonymous VFM #6306 April 20, 2016 3:19 AM  

Cruz loses the general in Romneyesque proportion or worse if he succeeds in "playing by the" highly unpopular and unAmerican "rules."

Seriously, Clinton could come out in an oxygen mask, sporting a seeping headwound and wearing only a pair of Depends undergarments and would still destroy Cruz in the debates...and not because of anything either of them say. Hillary's nomination, despite the addition of the unpopular superdelegates, will simply be seen as far more representative of the proper political process than a creep who did not win his own party's delegates the "normal" way.

Trump demolished his target of 58 tonight, and Cruz's target was a meager 6...and he fell short by six.

So even if he steals delegates within the sleazeball rules, he is still Fruit Ninjas bitch, and Fruit Ninja's bitch is like a plate of McCain with a nice side of Dole.

Served cold.

This is why I am still convinced Cruz is still playing for something other than the Oval Office. He isn't as stupid as his supporters.

OpenID aew51183 April 20, 2016 3:20 AM  

@130

Get it through your head Scott the cruz bot: Cruz will never be president.

Blogger Scott6584 April 20, 2016 3:37 AM  

aew51183 wrote:@130

Get it through your head Scott the cruz bot: Cruz will never be president.


Maybe so.

But I honestly believe that Trump didn't initially expect to be a contender. I think his initial goal was to block Jeb Bush and the Bush family. There was something a little too personal in the way he went after Bush.

By the time Bush dropped out, he was a NYC Yankee marching, General Sherman Style, through the deep South, and simply expected his momentum to carry him to a majority of delegates. He even was gracious to Cruz when Cruz won Texas.

He wasn't paying attention to electing loyalists at the grass roots level, and expected to cruise to wins. But the West thinks much differently than the South, and those West of the Mississippi are different in kind to those who live East of the Mississippi.

Colorado was a yuuuge wake-up call, and Trump went on a losing streak out West. It was then that he hired a delegate hunter, but he has no organization at the local levels, and many of his loyalists are new, and have no clue how to organize on their own at that level.

But at this point, it is probably too little, too late. Since Donald did not enter the race with the primary purpose of winning, he didn't invest in developing a competent organization to secure delegates. And when it suddenly became apparent that he wasn't going to march, Sherman like, though the West, he was surprised.

So, now he's in a panic, and the hopes of his campaign are dwindling. Meanwhile, Cruz supporters who are more politically aware of how things actually work, are still plugging away, tortoise style. The Trump rabbit took a long nap in the briar patch when it looked like his lead was insurmountable. But now he's gotta run at a full sprint to catch up with Cruz.

I think there was a moral story written about this...

Maybe Cruz will not be President. But the odds are going up that Trump will not be the Republican nominee. And the guy who stopped Trump was Trump, not Cruz. He has no one to blame but himself (although I doubt that will stop him from trying to blame others.

Anonymous VFM #6306 April 20, 2016 3:38 AM  

Cruz doesn't want the Presidency. If he did, he would have brokered a ticket with Trump a long, long time ago when that window was wide open. He is obviously running for prominence now, and he figures he can trade that for his real power position. The affairs that he has yet to deny alone will be dropped neatly into the narrative as soon as his time as the antitrump tool is over, and he knows it.

Naw, he is playing loyal Bush-bot for now to show what a clever boy he is. He can probably trade that for something cool when it is all over. What commitee does he want to be chairman of? What department does he want to run? Does he look good in a robe, or what?

OpenID aew51183 April 20, 2016 3:39 AM  

@133

"Colorado was a yuuuge wake-up call"

You just lost all credibility claiming Colorado as anything legitimate.

"Trump went on a losing streak out West"

You can't win elections that don't happen because party bosses cancel them.

Anonymous Philalethes April 20, 2016 3:43 AM  

@93 ff  Scott6584

History Lesson...

@122 Scintan

There is NOTHING underhanded or sneaky about any of this.

Bullshit


Well, he's right, actually. It's all politics, and that's how Cruz is playing it – by The Rules.

There is a reason that the Republican Party is named that; in theory, it is a party of federalism, states' rights, and…well…the republic. ....

Scott makes some good points, and the history is worth knowing, but... 52 years ago there was a Republican candidate who ran on the platform "This is a Republic, not a Democracy" (I remember, I was there), and actually won the nomination – and the Republican Party did everything it could to torpedo the candidacy of its own nominee, giving the Democrats an overwhelming victory. (It was probably already too late for the Republic, but the "Republicans" could have at least made an effort.)

Since then, perhaps the #1 priority of the GOP establishment has been to prevent that ever happening again. Ronald Reagan managed to get by the gatekeepers, but they still found a way to rein him in, thereby paving the way for the Bush Dynasty to take over the presidency, and the "Neoconservatives" (who until then had been Democrats) to take over the country.

Ever since 1964, the entire political establishment, Republicans no less than Democrats, have been relentlessly indoctrinating the American public to believe in Our Great Democracy. Those are the rules that Trump is playing by. "This is America, where any boy can grow up to become President." All that stuff: the real Rules. After all, wasn't it a Republican President who informed us that the Constitution is "just a piece of paper"? (Actually, just did a search, and it seems this famous quote is probably bogus, though most believe it to be genuine – yet another example of how the whole American political system, including what most Americans believe about it, has been transplanted in toto to a different foundation.)

Blogger Scott6584 April 20, 2016 3:51 AM  

aew51183 wrote:@133

"Colorado was a yuuuge wake-up call"

You just lost all credibility claiming Colorado as anything legitimate.

"Trump went on a losing streak out West"

You can't win elections that don't happen because party bosses cancel them.


Actually, that's not true. There were 73 elections held in Colorado between March 1st and April 9th.

On March 1st, there was a precint level election in every precint.

Then, between March 1st and March 26th, there were 64 more elections held in every county.

And then there were 7 District elections held between April 2 and April 9th.

Trump didn't even show up for the precinct and county elections. He showed up, completely unorganized, at the District Conventions.

Finally, there was a statewide convention which elected some more delegates.

It is simply an error to say that their wasn't an election in Colorado.

Anonymous Philalethes April 20, 2016 3:53 AM  

Whether Trump is familiar with the history Scott presents so clearly and is simply ignoring it – since nobody, including Cruz (and the GOPe) actually believes in any of it anymore – or, not having been a politician his entire career, he is actually unaware of these fine points – just like all but a tiny handful of the American people – I really don't know. However, in the real world, Cruz's expert leveraging of The Rules is seen as underhanded and sneaky by the majority of the American people – just like Hillary's "Superdelegates".

[The Republican Party] was founded as a reaction to defend [the Republic] from the populist excesses of Andrew Jackson’s racist “Democratic” Party and the anti-immigration “Know-Nothing” Party" (the latter of which has apparently re-arisen in the form of Trump supporters).

Ironic then that it was the Republican Party, in the person of Saint Abraham, who destroyed the Republic, and laid the foundation for the Imperial Democracy the U.S.A. has become – not only by way of Lincoln's declared "State of Emergency" and self-designation as Dictator (neither of which was provided for in the Constitution – i.e. The Rules), but also by Lincoln's wholesale importation of Irish immigrants to populate his army – arguably the first great wave of undigestible new "Americans" who substantially changed the popular, mostly unconscious consensus understanding of the nature of the nation.

It's a crazy situation, to be sure. It may be objectively, rationally, dialectically true that Cruz is "playing by the rules", but if he wins that way, he loses. Because, as we should all know by now, elections in the U.S.A. – or anywhere else where it's about the human nature of Homo sap – are not won on dialectical but on rhetorical grounds. But of course, as an establishment Republican (the "outsider" image I find totally unbelievable), Cruz might not mind losing at all – given that his Owners probably want Hillary on the throne anyway.

Or maybe the Ruling Elite is planning for the chaos that might well result if Trump is seen to have been "cheated" out of the nomination – as their opportunity to finally employ the planned end game and show us what a real "fascist" strongman looks like. So they can, in Graham Strachan's prophetic words, "rule over the wreckage".

The bottom line is, Trump is the only truly conservative candidate, because he wants to "Make America Great Again" – while Cruz, while he may be playing by the putative Rules, like all his bought-and-paid-for "Honorable" colleagues, is fully committed to the ongoing – and rapidly accelerating – total destruction of what America once was.

The Republic is a lost cause, has been since 1861. The question now is, quite simply and brutally, whether America itself is also lost. Once that is understood, it must be clear that Trump, whatever his shortcomings (and they are many), is, at the moment (and there may not be another), the nation's only hope. Otherwise, the best we might be able to hope for will be a kind of Northern Hemisphere Brazil.

Blogger Scott6584 April 20, 2016 4:23 AM  

Philalethes,

Ironically, I agree with you about Lincoln destroying the Republic, and his unconstitutional power grabs not only including importing an Irish Army, but also establishing the very first crony-capitalism venture of the Transcontinental Railway. The great land give away to the Railroads was unprecedented. Most don't even know that it was Lincoln who selected the standard track gauge, and that the Transcontinental Railway was of even greater importance to Lincoln than the Civil War.

For the longest time, the Republican Party was the liberal Party, and it only switched to the Democrats with Woodrow Wilson in 1912.

As for the Republic being a lost cause, I moved back to Texas from Minnesota 7 months ago for the express purpose of supporting a Texas Secession movement. Today, there was an article about that movement in the Washington Post, of all places.

While the majority of Texans have no desire to leave the USA, I believe that may change over the next 20 years, and can see the disintegration of the Union occurring soon if things don't change.

As for Cruz, I don't believe winning the nomination on a second ballot will hurt him any more than Superdelegates hurt Hillary. There will be a minority of butt-hurt Trump fans who will refuse to vote. The vast majority will shift to Cruz. And Cruz is simply a much better campaigner than Hillary, who has to rank among the worst campaigners ever to seek the Presidency. Factor in the likely exposure to the general public of the current FBI criminal investigation, and the fact that many Bernie supporters will be just as turned off by Hillary as Trump supporters are turned off by Cruz, and the playing field will be tilted in Cruz's favor.

I'd rather find out than not.

Blogger Student in Blue April 20, 2016 8:00 AM  

@136. Philalethes
Well, he's right, actually. It's all politics, and that's how Cruz is playing it – by The Rules.

Saying "It's not underhanded or sneaky, it's politics" is a very curious way of defending it.

Because, y'know, politics have never been synonymous with underhanded and sneaky.

Blogger Teri April 20, 2016 9:46 AM  

It's pretty simple. Trump is running to win it. Cruz is a regional candidate that has the Establishment helping him rack up delegates. As many folks have said, the Rin Paul supporters followed the rules and look where it got them. Many of these rule changes are a reaction to their success.

There are two men with experience in managing delegates during a brokered convention. Kasich has one, Charlie Black. Trump just put the other, Paul Manafort in charge of the convention fight. And, notice that Cruz got shut out in Michigan, where Kasich and Trump supporters combined to shut him out. The delegates were being chosen for the credentials and platform commitees.

Blogger Teri April 20, 2016 9:53 AM  

No, not at all, if you don't care about winning in the General. This isn't a run in a single state. Cruz is a regional candidate that can't win in the big states needed to wi in the General. While the GOPe may not care if they run another loser, the rest of the party may feel differently.

Blogger Teri April 20, 2016 9:58 AM  

No, he's doing it to put people on watch for cheating. We are starting to see a lot more complaints about ballot irregularities.

Let's see Cruz actually try and win it by running in primaries. He can't and that is why you will see support for Cruz continue to slip. He'll take third place a lot more in future primaries.

Blogger dh April 20, 2016 10:00 AM  

> Theoretically, does the convention rules committee have the power to unbind delegates for the first ballot?

Not really. There could be floor motions and whatnot to try to undo some of the RNC rules, but each state party has rules that also protect the winner. Some rules bind candidates basically forever, and some rules can be suspended.

It will be a shit show of big proportions if it's not over in 1 or 2 ballots, because after that, it has the potential to really get ugly.

Blogger Teri April 20, 2016 10:00 AM  

I will never vote for Cruz and I'm not the only person saying it. I'd vote for Bernie first. He's more honest.

Blogger Young Heaving Bosoms of Liberty April 20, 2016 11:01 AM  

Teri wrote:I will never vote for Cruz and I'm not the only person saying it. I'd vote for Bernie first. He's more honest.

Hey, Teri, do you know what Bernie's real name is?

Anonymous Philalethes April 20, 2016 11:13 AM  

@125.  Scott6584
I find it both shocking and outrageously funny that the ONLY county Trump failed to carry was his home county of Manhattan. That is just fall down funny.

I don't find it shocking or even surprising. Manhattan is one of the three central nodes (along with D.C. and the City of London) of the Anglo-Zionist Empire. Goldman Sachs HQ: 200 West Street, New York NY 10282. Also probably the highest per-capita nose-powdering population on the planet (except for D.C. of course). Trump doesn't even drink; they despise him.

Blogger Were-Puppy April 20, 2016 2:03 PM  

@123 Snidely Whiplash
What you're seeing and failing to understand is how Trump, with the gleeful co-operation of the GOPe and it's poster boy Teddy Cruz, is taking a caucus he would have certainly overwhelmingly lost, and turned it into a victory on the moral level of war.

This is 4G politics right here. RIGHT FUCKING HERE
---

I realized that several days ago when I looked on Breitbart and everybody was getting angry about it and fired up.

Then I check in on Right Scoop and they were all crowing about how awesome Cruzlims and how stupid Trump and Trumpsters are. That fed the fire of the Trumpsters.

Then I realized, the loss is a win.

At some point they have to keep their voters engaged. How do they do that? Trump, at least, comes up with these little semi-dramas every couple of weeks that gives his supporters something to think about.

I bet he continues to do it all the way up to the election.

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