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Thursday, April 07, 2016

The campaign takes its toll

A few people have asked me what is wrong with Trump lately, given his recent media missteps and his bigger-than-expected loss in Wisconsin. I think the answer is very simple. He's tired. This nomination campaign is a marathon, not a sprint, and it is an exhausting process. In every human endeavor, we see the pattern of ebb and flow, the fractal Elliott Wave pattern of 1-3-5 with the 2-4, the back-and-forth swing of the momentum pendulum.

Trump has had two big surges, one that began in New Hampshire and carried through Super Tuesday, the other that carried him through big victories in Florida and Arizona. The question is if he can summon up the energy required for the final push to victory.

The last two weeks have been what happens when a candidate who depends upon his high energy to carry his campaign through finds himself flagging. And, as usual, all the short-term linear thinkers who look only at the present assume that it's all over and his trajectory is downward.

I suspect that being back home in New York will energize Trump and he'll roar back into aggressive action after he is remotivated by a landslide win over Cruz there. Whether that will be enough to carry him through California, I don't know, but remember, what he absolutely needs to win before the convention are: a big win in proportional New York, solid wins in Pennsylvania and New Jersey, a minor state win, and then a clinching victory in California.

That's not certain, but it is far from being impossible, or even unlikely. April 26th looks to be an interesting day, as Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Delaware will vote and the finalists for the Hugo Awards will also be announced.

UPDATE: Nate adds an important observation:
I think this is a fair assessment. but you're also ignoring Trump's weak spot, which is also one of his strengths. Trump doesn't handling failure well. Oh, he's fine losing one or two while winning 10. But he's had a bad couple weeks and it is clearly showing. You can see it in his temperament. Looking back at the debates where Cruz and Rubio were ganging up on him he was clearly off-his game in the post debate interviews.

When he's winning he appears to have a better grasp on what attacks to address and what attacks to ignore. When he isn't winning he appears to lose that ability and lash out at everything and everyone that says anything negative about him.
This is an excellent point, and it is one reason why I've been saying New York is so important even though it's not winner-takes-all. Trump is a high-energy front-runner who feeds on momentum. He's a steamroller, he's not a counterpuncher who is energized by finding himself on the ropes, a die-hard who will fight until the bitter end, or a comeback kid who needs to be knocked down once or twice before he even starts to get serious.

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250 Comments:

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Blogger Alexander April 07, 2016 8:36 AM  

I look forward to celebrating the surge of the Trumpenfuhrer and the gay space raptors.

Blogger Peter April 07, 2016 8:38 AM  

If Trump is nominated for a Hugo Award, I'm definitely going to have dire suspicions about the nomination process . . .

:-)

Blogger Elocutioner April 07, 2016 8:39 AM  

Agreed. NY isn't exactly proportional. It's 14 delegates statewide and 3 per 27 districts. In any place where he breaks 50% he takes all, otherwise it's 2-1 for a district and for statewide it's proportional for candidates over the threshold of 20%.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NY-R

Blogger Phillip George April 07, 2016 8:44 AM  

or the explanation could be even something more mundane like directed energy weapons. Killary and Co.

always have an exit strategy and don't be seen in a convertible in Dallas. Sorry Vox. I think "they", collective blackhatgentsia may have done exactly this sort of thing to the Australian swimming team at the London Olympics. The Truth is out there etc. Dark days ahead, pray out loud.

Anonymous Steve April 07, 2016 8:44 AM  

He's been flying around the country non-stop, often delivering three speeches a day.

And not just the usual boring, practiced, autocued speeches politicians deliver. He speaks off the cuff, pouring his heart and soul into it, often jumping back and forth into different topics as they pop into his mind, but never losing the thread of what he wanted to say.

That would take unusually high energy and stamina for most 30 year olds. For a man pushing 70, it's incredible.

I also get the sense Trump - like most great salesmen - is an emotional guy. He feeds off of positive energy and his big fights with political opponents or the media, but the downside is that he can get bored and subdued when things start to become a grind.

Anonymous The OASF April 07, 2016 8:49 AM  

Just another day closer to kissing the GOPe Bohemian Club Sodomite Network goodbye forever, and to paraphrase Master Yoda "not soon enough it was."

Blogger Nate April 07, 2016 8:50 AM  

I think this is a fair assessment. but you're also ignoring Trump's weak spot, which is also one of his strengths. Trump doesn't handling failure well. Oh he's fine losing one or two while winning 10. But he's had a bad couple weeks and it is clearly showing. You can see it in his temperament. Looking back at the debates where Cruz and Rubio were ganging up on him he was clearly off-his game in the post debate interviews.

When he's winning he appears to have a better grasp on what attacks to address and what attacks to ignore. When he isn't winning he appears to lose that ability and lash out at everything and everyone that says anything negative about him.

None of these things are character flaws as I see them. They are just Trump. But they do create small holes in the armor for someone like Cruz to wriggle a knife into.

Anonymous Steve April 07, 2016 8:53 AM  

Trump doesn't handling failure well. Oh he's fine losing one or two while winning 10. But he's had a bad couple weeks and it is clearly showing.

Yup. The big dog looks bigger when his tail is up.

Blogger Matamoros April 07, 2016 8:58 AM  

A few comments.

First, I think Trump is also becoming frustrated and irked at the dirty politics of stealing his elections, and then stealing the delegates he does win.
http://lamecherry.blogspot.com/2016/04/proof-of-ted-cruz-vote-fraud-in.html

Second, Eduardo Cruz has no balls other than being a slimy, thieving politician.
"Look at the photo Cruz voters, your Ted Cruz creating such anger and his pathetic recoiling at the finger of an American employing their First Amendment. When Donald Trump has been repeatedly attacked, he faced his terrorists..........Ted Cruz shows fear and goes weak as water."
http://lamecherry.blogspot.com/2016/04/the-hate-of-ted-cruz.html

Third, here is TR on Immigrants:

"'In the first place, we should insist that if the immigrant who comes here in good faith becomes an American and assimilates himself to us, he shall be treated on an exact equality with everyone else, for it is an outrage to discriminate against any such man because of creed, or birthplace, or origin. But this is predicated upon the person's becoming in every facet an American, and nothing but an American...There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn't an American at all. We have room for but one flag, the American flag... We have room for but one language here, and that is the English language.. And we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people.'
Theodore Roosevelt 1907"

Blogger rumpole5 April 07, 2016 8:58 AM  

Trump lost a lot of ground on the nonsense regarding his wife. The photo was not all that objectionable in the first place, and she put it in the public domain, for money. News flash -- Good looking women use their allure to advance themselves? I'm shocked, shocked! What nonsense.
The bottom line is that Cruz is not so virtuous as he makes himself out to be, and Trump has a lot more flaws than his
supporters are willing to concede. Each man would be far, far better than any politician we have had in a long time. Each is appealing to positive aspects of the American zeitguiest. I am still hoping for a Trump/ Cruz ticket when they realize that neither will be able to win alone on the first convention ballot. There have certainly been stranger bedfellows, and together they would be unstoppable.

Blogger CM April 07, 2016 8:58 AM  

After having such huge support, I have been surprised by how quickly people shifted in the last 2 weeks.

Given human nature, not really, but I've been told Trump fans are fanatic and he could kill someone and still win.

I thought he was Obama.

Blogger Student in Blue April 07, 2016 9:02 AM  

I thought he was Obama.

Obama didn't have quite the gang-up on him though.

Anonymous Steve April 07, 2016 9:03 AM  


I think Trump is also becoming frustrated and irked at the dirty politics of stealing his elections, and then stealing the delegates he does win.


Probably. There's plenty of shenanigans in big business, but it's got nothing on politics.

Because politics is a zero-sum game that mostly attracts sociopaths, it's dirtier than the fungal colonies in Seanan McGuire's back fat.

Blogger Nate April 07, 2016 9:11 AM  

"Given human nature, not really, but I've been told Trump fans are fanatic and he could kill someone and still win."

They still are fanatics. But Trump's campaign is run on enthusiasm.. and right now they aren't all that enthusiastic.

They are like a church during a revival. All fired up for glory. But now the revival tent is empty and the revival preacher is out for bit... and they have nothing to sustain their emotional high so they are coming down a bit.

Like Vox says... a big win in NY and the Train is rolling again just fine.

Blogger Nate April 07, 2016 9:14 AM  

Trump Supporter is manic depressive. When Trump wins something... they are on their huge high and everything is amazingwonderful and nothing can ever go wrong ever. Then Trump doesn't win.. and everything is awfulhorrible and nothing can ever go right ever.

Blogger Matamoros April 07, 2016 9:17 AM  

@14 - "But Trump's campaign is run on enthusiasm."

True. Wayne Allen Root in his latest has stated that it is (past) time to shift over. Trump must stop running a cheap campaign based on free media coverage, because it is now all negative.

He must shift over and begin to outspend Cruz and others to get his message in front of Americans so they don't succumb to Cruz's, GOP's, and medias' lies.

http://rootforamerica.com/advice-for-donald-trump-spend-money-now/

Blogger Nate April 07, 2016 9:21 AM  

"He must shift over and begin to outspend Cruz and others to get his message in front of Americans so they don't succumb to Cruz's, GOP's, and medias' lies."

That's just it... the message he has is "I will not be bullied into this PC crap."

He is best at getting that message out when someone is trying to talk down to him about his language and he can stand up to them. I keep trying to explain this but few seem to get it. Immigration is the most important thing to many of you. But it is not the primary reason for Trump's success. Trump's success is based on a combination of standing up to the PC bullies and a refreshing bit of Nationalism.

Immigration isn't a huge deal in america yet. its changed... and its moving in the right direction for once... but you guys have assumed it that it is completely switched and everyone wants the illegals deported tomorrow.

That will happen.. but it hasn't happened yet.

Blogger LP9 Forever Solidified in Gold! Rin Integra S.I.G. April 07, 2016 9:23 AM  

Despite the message and popularity, perhaps the campaign or maybe the family had to experience an election cycle with all its travels, speeches - its expensive work with at times diminishing returns. Regardless, everyone or many want a future.

I still like what Chateau said Pump for Trump (?) in that its at times fun to enjoy punditry and politics.

But really post america is felled or dangerously sinking in religious apostasy, moral awfulness, political anarchy, financial rape, foreign policies that are unsustainable then again what is sustainable when it HAS TO cost trillions, hypnotic trances of stress which a temptation away from the good (this easily riles up the older generations whom do not understand or care about econ or banking or immigration because it has not come to their area) and then the cucking, necoconning and LyingMichelle iFields hoax.

Semi OT, The hoax helped Trump.

Anonymous BGKB April 07, 2016 9:23 AM  

He is fighting both the left and the Cucks. Every other large donor is dedicating millions against him. Everyone on the take on both sides is against him, so when cheeseheads hear their senatecuck say "I bring in the big govt money and I say you shouldn't vote TRUMP" they go with what they know.

For a while I was telling people a lot of what he does is set traps for people, only to not realize his abortion fallback was a trap to show the true faces of some pro lifers. If the only punishment women had for abortions was to have it be public record that would stop more abortions than any other law, because women would realize that it would keep them from high quality men that they could lie to by saying they are a virgin. That there are men that women cant have would drive them crazy.

Just another day closer to kissing the GOPe Bohemian Club Sodomite Network goodbye forever

I didn't know it existed or I would have gone into politics.

The bottom line is that Cruz is not so virtuous as he makes himself out to be,

If Cruz gets outted by the DC Madame, will it hurt him more than the cheaper hooker he was identified with?

I thought he was Obama.

Have any rebublicucks said anything as bad about bath house Barry as they have about TRUMP?

Probably. There's plenty of shenanigans in big business, but it's got nothing on politics.

The mob does more to protect NYC from moslems than the govt does & have a more honest loan policy.

Blogger LP9 Forever Solidified in Gold! Rin Integra S.I.G. April 07, 2016 9:25 AM  

Trump shut Foxnews down and shut Megyn Kelly down with what is contained in the art of the deal - "I or we do not have time for political correctness."

Blogger Student in Blue April 07, 2016 9:26 AM  

@Nate
Then Trump doesn't win.. and everything is awfulhorrible and nothing can ever go right ever.

That seems way more accurate for the Bernie supporters than for Trump supporters.

Blogger Cynic In Chief April 07, 2016 9:28 AM  

rumpole5 wrote:I am still hoping for a Trump/ Cruz ticket when they realize that neither will be able to win alone on the first convention ballot. There have certainly been stranger bedfellows, and together they would be unstoppable.

Fully agree with this assessment; I call it the "Unity Ticket". Trump speaks flawless rhetoric that stirs people up while Cruz speaks solid dialectic that convinces highly rational people (although people who can understand both dialectic and rhetoric tend to lean Trump). Together they would be unstoppable. Trump would trigger Clinton very badly and cause her to do crazy things while Cruz would explain exactly why the things she wants to do are so bad. Cruz would pull in the #NeverTrump conservatives who would realize that he would keep Trump from going off the rails while Trump supporters would be fine with "Lyin Ted" as long as Trump was there to tell them how it is.

That said, I don't think the establishment would allow the Unity Ticket simply because it leaves them out of the picture. At a convention, they have a lot more control and can convince/threaten/bribe(it's legal at a convention) whoever they need to so that their pick is it. That means that Trump won't get the pick and Cruz, having served his usefulness, will be discarded like a paper napkin. It'll be Romney/Ryan, Ryan/Kasich, or some other set of establishment cucks (I prefer a Jeb/Graham ticket for maximum lulz). It'll burn the Republican Party down (hopefully with the establishment locked inside) and allow it to be rebuilt under a different name, but it might mean the end of the republic as well. Either way, I have lots of snacks and a front row seat to watch the carnage and flames.

Anonymous BGKB April 07, 2016 9:31 AM  

Trump Supporter is manic depressive. When Trump wins something...

When TRUMP smacks the Overton window with a sledgehammer they cheer, when nasty hag scolds lecture him that women shouldn't have any consequences for breaking the law and he listens to them they cry.

Trump must stop running a cheap campaign based on free media coverage, because it is now all negative.

He put out how he would have Mexico pay for the wall but the media wont report on it. It would use the same system as remissions to Cuba, and treat them just like Israel does to Palestinians.

Blogger Nate April 07, 2016 9:38 AM  

"That seems way more accurate for the Bernie supporters than for Trump supporters."

Trump supporters and bernie supporters are far more similar than you guys will ever admit.

Blogger dienw April 07, 2016 9:38 AM  

@ #9 Matamoros
In the same set of articles, Lame Cherry also reports that the government is using its power against Trumps daughter and plans worse for his sons.
First they came for Ivanka.
But the Cruz reprobates couldn't care less; probably think Cruz is being a smart political strategist and tactician.

Blogger Nate April 07, 2016 9:41 AM  

"or the explanation could be even something more mundane like directed energy weapons. Killary and Co.

always have an exit strategy and don't be seen in a convertible in Dallas. Sorry Vox. I think "they", collective blackhatgentsia may have done exactly this sort of thing to the Australian swimming team at the London Olympics. The Truth is out there etc. Dark days ahead, pray out loud."

WAKEUP SHEEPLE

Blogger James Dixon April 07, 2016 9:43 AM  

> That said, I don't think the establishment would allow the Unity Ticket simply because it leaves them out of the picture.

What's their mechanism for stopping it?

OpenID denektenorsk April 07, 2016 9:43 AM  

Breitbart is reporting that he'll fall ~100 delegates short based on their delegate estimates and polls. Polls have been wrong before so don't count him out yet.

Regardless of how (un)electable you think Cruz and/or Trump are this still can prove to be massively entertaining. If one of them doesn't get the nomination the GOPe will be committing suicide with the base. I'd expect that many registered voters stay home again and hand it off to Hilliary and the gravy train keeps steamin'... until it doesn't.

If interest rates ever rise again we are all massively F$%KED. My province could easily be spending 10% of the budget on "debt servicing" if it goes up even a few points. The Federal government under "His Hairness, high priest of feminism" will be worse off with his current spending plans.

Curly Haugland is not wrong when he says the delegates pick the nominee, not the voters. The whole system is so pointlessly confusing and Byzantine from state to state. It serves one real purpose... to obfuscate results and let "the right kind of people" get into office.

Blogger Josh April 07, 2016 9:43 AM  

Trump must stop running a cheap campaign based on free media coverage, because it is now all negative.

He can't afford to. Running a cheap campaign relying on free media is his only play.

Blogger Sonny Boy April 07, 2016 9:44 AM  

At this point Cruz has no chance of getting the 1237 magic number of delegates to secure the nomination. Trump still has a chance, but that is becoming more and more incertain, we will see what the next few weeks bring.

The possibility of a brokered convention is seemong more likely with every primary, and theedit has been doing its part to soften us up to this.

At this point the only way Cruz or Kasich can get the nomination is through a brokered convention. They know this. I mean Kasich shouldn't even be in the race anymore, but he is just a pawn to steal votes from both candidates to help make a brokered convention happen.

In the event of a brokered convention I doubt Cruz will become the nomine because he too is just a pawn being used to slow down Trump.

However, in the event that Cruz does get the nomination, well don't even bother going to the polls in November because he will not beat Hillary.

Blogger Nick S April 07, 2016 9:44 AM  

By the time Cali is up to bat, the ads are going to be epic.
Video is forever. Roll the tape...#neverayankee

Blogger Nate April 07, 2016 9:45 AM  

"What's their mechanism for stopping it?"

there isn't one. But there is no convincing them of that.

Blogger SciVo April 07, 2016 9:47 AM  

Nate wrote:Trump Supporter is manic depressive.

Heh. If he wins, specific targets burn down now. If he loses (and maybe also if he wins), it all burns down later. Either way, fire wins.

So I have equanimity; the outcome is uncertain, yet doesn't really matter. /nihilism

Anonymous fish April 07, 2016 9:48 AM  

Just another day closer to kissing the GOPe Bohemian Club Sodomite Network goodbye forever

I didn't know it existed or I would have gone into politics.



Meh.......have some standards Steve!

Republicans....? Really?!

Anonymous Hunsdon April 07, 2016 9:48 AM  

Nate said: Trump supporters and bernie supporters are far more similar than you guys will ever admit.

Hunsdon said: Yup. They're certainly both feeding off the same anger. I wish more people saw this. (Buchanan did.)

Blogger Nate April 07, 2016 9:49 AM  

"The possibility of a brokered convention is seemong more likely with every primary, and theedit has been doing its part to soften us up to this. "

There will be no brokered convention. There is no mechanism for such a thing. There is no infrastructure for such a thing.

This will be handled by multiple floor votes. And to get those votes... you will need an organization on the floor to help you.

3 people have organizations capable of doing that. Those three are Trump, Cruz, and Kaisch.

But Cruz' organization is far bigger and far more disciplined.

So if Trump doesn't get to 1237... you can expect Cruz to win on the second vote... and by a landslide.

Blogger Nate April 07, 2016 9:51 AM  

"/nihilism"

see? This is the kind of Trump supporter I can really appreciate. Burn it all. or Trump because EFF U. I love these guys. its the true believer trump fan that I love to kick around.

Blogger SciVo April 07, 2016 9:58 AM  

BGKB wrote:For a while I was telling people a lot of what he does is set traps for people, only to not realize his abortion fallback was a trap to show the true faces of some pro lifers. If the only punishment women had for abortions was to have it be public record that would stop more abortions than any other law, because women would realize that it would keep them from high quality men that they could lie to by saying they are a virgin. That there are men that women cant have would drive them crazy.

That. Is. Brilliant.

Blogger Teri April 07, 2016 10:02 AM  

And the Cruz organization could never ever be taken in by delegates that say they will vote for Cruz.

There is a very nice site, fortunesthoughts.wordpress.com. The blogger talks about her aunt going to the 1976 convention. They offered a lot to get delegates to support Ford. And the site has good info on how to become a delegate. There is an assumption that only political novices support Trump. It's not true.

OpenID denektenorsk April 07, 2016 10:04 AM  

Nate said:

"They are like a church during a revival. All fired up for glory. But now the revival tent is empty and the revival preacher is out for bit... and they have nothing to sustain their emotional high so they are coming down a bit."

Completely agree... there has been a prolonged lull (a few weeks) and one major mistep onto the land mine of abortion. The rest (NATO, SE Asia nuclear power balance, etc.) has been typical Trump.

For the base to stay energized the cheerleader needs to be front and center. Given how much I personally dislike cheerleading I can imagine that he finds it both physically and emotionally exhausting. WI was never Trump friendly territory and Cruz is running a better ground game so there's that too.

His strategy will need to re-energize the base 1-2 weeks out from voting... get people fired up so they get emotionally invested in voting. You don't do that the day of voting.

Blogger Sonny Boy April 07, 2016 10:07 AM  

Trump has great stamina, but everyone has limits, but does anyone here believe that if any other candidate be they republican or democrat running today faced half as much opposition as Trump has would they still be in the race?

I don't think so. Seeing the daily onslaught of attacks against Trump from practically every angle while Trump takes the hits and keeps on swinging is one reason among others why I'm supporting him.

Other reasons include his anti globalist policies. Also, he wants to curb the power of BLM. That fact that he actually wants to take power away from an abusive govt. agency is enough of a reason by itself.

The reason he is opposed by so many is not for the reasons the media reports, the real reason is that his policies would be a threat to a corrupt establishment ruling class who have nothing but contempt for the American people.

It's not Orwell's 1984 we are living, it's Animal Farm. Hopefully if by some miracle Trump gets in he won't become like those pigs, but what choice do we have, either vote for someone who we know will screw us or vote for someone who says he won't and hope he doesn't.

OpenID denektenorsk April 07, 2016 10:07 AM  

"What's their mechanism for stopping it?"

there isn't one. But there is no convincing them of that.


Isn't there some legalese about a majority in 8 states or more? I wouldn't be surprised if there isn't fine print they can invoke if they so choose. After all, the whole process is to get the right sort of candidate.

Blogger Cicatrizatic April 07, 2016 10:08 AM  

Not only will Trump likely win all 6 of the upcoming primaries (NY, CT, DE, MD, PA, and RI), Cruz will probably come in 3rd place in some of them. Further, after April 26, Cruz will be mathematically eliminated from getting 1,237 delegates on the first ballot, and will only be able to surpass Trump in number of delegates by somehow winning all 10 primaries that take place in May and June.

Even assuming that Cruz wins Nebraska, Oregon, Washington, Montana, New Mexico, South Dakota, and splits California about even with Trump (CA apportions by congressional district), Cruz will still be about 350-400 delegates behind Trump heading into the convention, and Trump will likely be within 50 delegates or so of 1,237. And if Trump can win 75% of the delegates in CA, he probably gets to 1,237.

So heading into the final 5-week stretch, here is what Cruz is offering, either (1) vote for Cruz, to prevent Trump, because Cruz and the establishment have locked up the 2nd ballot for Cruz, or (2) vote for Cruz to prevent Trump, so that the establishment can pick some third party candidate and make a mockery of the whole process.
So Cruz joins forces with the establishment to secure the nomination, or Cruz successfully thwarts Trump in order to let the establishment decide on someone else.


Blogger Nate April 07, 2016 10:08 AM  

"There is an assumption that only political novices support Trump. It's not true. "

correct. Its not 100% true. 100% of all trump delegates are not political novices.

But the vast majority are. Even in lousianna where most of Trump's supporters were establishment politicians... they still got their asses handed to them by Cruz's organization.

Blogger Nate April 07, 2016 10:12 AM  

"Isn't there some legalese about a majority in 8 states or more? I wouldn't be surprised if there isn't fine print they can invoke if they so choose. After all, the whole process is to get the right sort of candidate."

its not legalese. its rule 40. It was passed specifically to keep Ron Paul off the ballot at the convention to deny him a voice.

it will get removed completely this time.

Blogger Nate April 07, 2016 10:14 AM  

well I say that.. if Trump and Cruz both qualify under rule 40.. it won't change because their delegates will use it as a fire wall to prevent the kind of shenanigans you guys fear.

What I expect to happen.. is it will get adjusted down just enough to allow only cruz and trump to qualify. So if cruz has say... over 50% in 4 states... and Trump has over 50% in 9 or 10... Rule 40 will be amended down to 4 from 8.

And thus guaranteeing it will either be Trump or Cruz.

Anonymous Steve April 07, 2016 10:18 AM  

It's true in sales, and in politics, that the closer you get to closing a big deal, the fiercer the competition and the harder you have to work.

Trump is trying to close the biggest deal of his life. I'm guessing he has more up his sleeve than we've seen so far.

Blogger dh April 07, 2016 10:19 AM  

> So if Trump doesn't get to 1237... you can expect Cruz to win on the second vote... and by a landslide.

This is probably true.

Blogger dh April 07, 2016 10:19 AM  

> So if Trump doesn't get to 1237... you can expect Cruz to win on the second vote... and by a landslide.

This is probably true.

Blogger budbrewer April 07, 2016 10:30 AM  

Let's face it, he's pooped!

Anonymous a_peraspera April 07, 2016 10:37 AM  

Remember that Trump now HAS to win. He has put himself under the Eye at this point.

If he doesn't win, the entire force of the federal government will come to bear on him and his family. The IRS will somehow find time to put a couple dozen agents on going over the Trump finances with magnifying glasses. He'll get multiple safety/fire/environmental impact audits for every single one of his properties, every single year, with commensurate fines.

Even if he avoids jail, he'll still go bankrupt. And this time, mysteriously no one will loan him any money or want to start a new business with him. So he'll have no way to make a comeback. Trump has proven himself dangerous to the Establishment, so they are going to want him put down...WAY down.

In the opposite corner, Hillary also HAS to win, in order to avoid dying in federal prison for violations of handling Top Secret (and higher) classified material. So it's literally a duel to the death. FUN FUN FUN.

Blogger Alexamenos April 07, 2016 10:38 AM  

@nate Trump supporters and bernie supporters are far more similar than you guys will ever admit.

I recognize this and I can easily imagined a scenario where a) Trump wins nomination; b) Super delegates give Hillary the nomination; and c) pissed off Bernie supporters help put Trump over the top.

I bet a lot of Bernie supporters are going to be goosestepping 1488'ers by 2020.

Blogger Sonny Boy April 07, 2016 10:38 AM  

I think the Republican shadow establishment will hand the nomination the Hillary in hopes after four years of her disastrous policies the votes will be desperate enough to vote for any candidate that is put forward. Jeb Bush anyone?

Blogger Student in Blue April 07, 2016 10:38 AM  

@Nate
Trump supporters and bernie supporters are far more similar than you guys will ever admit.

I've seen no evidence that suggests the amount of True Believers for Trump are anywhere near as numerous as for Bernie. So no, the overall makeup of supporters are not that similar - not even counting the literal cuckolds who hold out for Bernie.

(By True Believers, I mean people who legitimately believe their candidate can't do anything wrong and is just 100%/0% emotionally/logically invested.)

Blogger Nick S April 07, 2016 10:39 AM  

Nate wrote:Rule 40 will be amended down to 4 from 8.

They shouldn't dick around with rule 40b at all. Cruz already has 5 and possibly 2 more (ND & LA), once they've been disambiguated. He should easily get to 8 before it's over. If not, oh well. Let the chips fall where they may. If it's Trump, it's Trump.

Blogger Student in Blue April 07, 2016 10:40 AM  

Alexamenos and Hunsdon remain correct where the underlying motivations are very similar, the expression and approach of said motivation is different.

Anonymous VFM #6306 April 07, 2016 10:42 AM  

Trump hasn't hit a wall. In fact he isn't hitting the wall quite enough.

Ten feet higher...with skulls.

Blogger Nate April 07, 2016 10:44 AM  

"I've seen no evidence that suggests the amount of True Believers for Trump are anywhere near as numerous as for Bernie"

Head. Sand. FOOOMP

Blogger Nate April 07, 2016 10:45 AM  

"They shouldn't dick around with rule 40b at all. Cruz already has 5 and possibly 2 more (ND & LA), once they've been disambiguated. He should easily get to 8 before it's over."

correct. What I meant was.. 40 would be amended if it was necessary for Cruz to get on the ballot. If Cruz qualifies out right... it won't be changed. and the GOPe will be well and truly screwed by their own machinations.

Anonymous BGKB April 07, 2016 10:48 AM  

its not legalese. its rule 40. It was passed specifically to keep Ron Paul off the ballot...it will get removed completely this time.

To be replaced by "you must have the blood of a Bush, the favor of a Preince (Reince Priebus), and the voice that speaks from behind Megan Kelly's vagina"

"I've seen no evidence that suggests the amount of True Believers for Trump are anywhere near as numerous as for Bernie"

Someone defended HilLIARy laughing about getting a child rapist off on a technicality, it was the first time I ever saw it.

Blogger James Dixon April 07, 2016 10:52 AM  

> well I say that.. if Trump and Cruz both qualify under rule 40.. it won't change because their delegates will use it as a fire wall to prevent the kind of shenanigans you guys fear.

I thought they had both qualified now. Cruz may still be at 6 or 7, but is likely to qualify before all is said and done.

Blogger Nate April 07, 2016 10:53 AM  

"I thought they had both qualified now. Cruz may still be at 6 or 7, but is likely to qualify before all is said and done"

I was positing that Cruz may not get to 8.

Blogger praetorian April 07, 2016 10:59 AM  

The next few weeks are going to be so high energy that everyone is going to be exhausted, even those of us who make a point of not giving a shit. Every resource available, every last ounce of slime, rhetoric, shadiness and pressure is going to be brought to bear on and by four of America's sociopathic all stars. The propaganda, backstabbing and gas lighting is going to be turned up to eleven. I wouldn't be surprised to see NSA cell phone video leaked of one of the candidates fapping.

MY. BODY. IS. READY.

Blogger Student in Blue April 07, 2016 11:01 AM  

@Nate
Head. Sand. FOOOMP

You know nothing of memes.

Anonymous Jeff D. April 07, 2016 11:05 AM  

Trump low energy?

Impossible.

Anonymous Case April 07, 2016 11:11 AM  

Any Republican who condones what's been done to Trump this election cycle doesn't deserve representation.

And it's not the RNC's fault and it's not the media's fault. It's the fault of the dumbass Republicans who cheer on the RNC and the media while they getting screwed by them.

This is the third consecutive GOP nomination process where I've had to witness it and I'm done.

That old taffy headed Commie can get elected for all I care.

Blogger BunE22 April 07, 2016 11:12 AM  

My brother-in-law went to the Trump rally in Bethpage last night. All I've heard through hubby is that Ivanka spoke, some other woman, and Trump came out and spoke for 45 minutes. He had the crowd energized.

I have to pick my BiL's brain because last I had heard he was a Cruz guy. Maybe he's swapped to Trump.

Anonymous johnc April 07, 2016 11:12 AM  

As much as I don't like the guy, I give credit to the fact that Cruz is a strong candidate. He's smart, he's disciplined, he works hard, he's experienced and he knows the game. So it's not like Trump is going up against some kind of drooling idiot slouch. Part of Trump slipping is as much Cruz gaining.

Trump will have to pick up his game, simple as that. Cruz is no Jeb Bush.

Anonymous rienzi April 07, 2016 11:13 AM  

Speaking of unintended consequences. Rule 40b was put in place to deny Ron Paul and his supporters from being able to put his name in nomination, or even being able to give a speech.

Now, if Nate is correct, it can come back to bite the GOPe in the ass.

I wonder if, now, they wish they had given Ron Paul a 3 in the afternoon speaking slot?

Blogger LP9 Forever Solidified in Gold! Rin Integra S.I.G. April 07, 2016 11:17 AM  

54 Understood yet many or I remain watchful or attentive and skeptical. It is really early paradoxically elections season fly by.

Some wonder if another Dem will run or if Trump can stay in for and endure or navigate a brokered convention - if that is the issue at the weirder and weirder RNC GOPe. As time passes I doubt Trump wants much to do with the dreads, dregs at the RNC. The Donald doesn't mesh with losers.

Blogger dh April 07, 2016 11:19 AM  

Cruz is not a bad politican, and his campaign really has it together. It's acutally pretty impressive. He's using better technology than anyone else in the game, has a strong ground game, strong organization, messaging, marketing.

The problem is he's repulsive to most people. He has a beta face, at best, and has none of the qualities of leadership. He's not well liked by his colleagues, which isn't a deal breaker, but usually shows that he's not a type of person who inspires loyalty.

Principles wise, he's the type of candidate who will, if given the nomination, destroy the GOP more than Trump. He's 100% orthodox on Conservative issues as defined by the GOP. When people reject him, it will be rejecting his entire ideology.

Blogger dh April 07, 2016 11:19 AM  

Cruz is not a bad politican, and his campaign really has it together. It's acutally pretty impressive. He's using better technology than anyone else in the game, has a strong ground game, strong organization, messaging, marketing.

The problem is he's repulsive to most people. He has a beta face, at best, and has none of the qualities of leadership. He's not well liked by his colleagues, which isn't a deal breaker, but usually shows that he's not a type of person who inspires loyalty.

Principles wise, he's the type of candidate who will, if given the nomination, destroy the GOP more than Trump. He's 100% orthodox on Conservative issues as defined by the GOP. When people reject him, it will be rejecting his entire ideology.

Anonymous Great Again April 07, 2016 11:21 AM  

Here's an amazing tweet by Ricky Vaughn. It shows how Trump does relative to the proportion of white ethnic group subsets in each state. The demographics of New York, New Jersey, Rhode Island and Connecticut are extremely favorable. Connecticut is important because a 50% win makes it winner take all.

https://twitter.com/Ricky_Vaughn99/status/717812089838907396

Indiana might be a loss. Pennsylvania and California are close enough that Trump will have to work for it.

Blogger BrianE April 07, 2016 11:28 AM  

"They still are fanatics. But Trump's campaign is run on enthusiasm.. and right now they aren't all that enthusiastic." -Nate

Other than the "Trump as Destroyer" fans isn't it possible that rational supports of Trump are beginning to recognize that Trump has no coherent political philosophy other than build a wall and stop Muslims and both of those policies he has walked back.
He says whatever he feels at the moment, most often contradictory from his previous position.

He is not to be trusted. Never trust deal makers.

Blogger exfarmkid April 07, 2016 11:31 AM  

22. Cynic in Chief: "That said, I don't think the establishment would allow the Unity Ticket simply because it leaves them out of the picture. At a convention, they have a lot more control and can convince/threaten/bribe(it's legal at a convention) whoever they need to so that their pick is it. That means that Trump won't get the pick and Cruz, having served his usefulness, will be discarded like a paper napkin. It'll be Romney/Ryan, Ryan/Kasich, or some other set of establishment cucks (I prefer a Jeb/Graham ticket for maximum lulz). It'll burn the Republican Party down (hopefully with the establishment locked inside) and allow it to be rebuilt under a different name, but it might mean the end of the republic as well. Either way, I have lots of snacks and a front row seat to watch the carnage and flames."

Fascinating hypothesis. I would be interested in hearing about your personal political convention experience which formed your opinions.

Blogger frigger611 April 07, 2016 11:33 AM  

Well, Trump has always been my guy, with Cruz as a second choice. Because out of all that started in the field, only Trump and Cruz had enough "outsider" cred (deserved or not) to be hated by the establishment quislings. Which was good enough for me.

But now I'm a bit worried about the Donald and hope he can polish up his act. His excessive and pro America bravado (which I find MOST refreshing) can also be an achilles heal if he believes he can charm or bully his way into the White House like Obama did. People are not willing to risk that again.

Speaking as a sad sad Bengals fan, watching Trump lately has all the markers of a sure Bengals playoff victory given away with stupid and totally avoidable mistakes. I mean did you see that last game against Pittsburgh? Uggh.

I hope I'm wrong. But it feels eerily similar.

Anonymous aegis-1080 April 07, 2016 11:34 AM  

Another thread of "Sure, Cruz is an slimy, pro-amnesty sociopath, but he's not a FILTHY YANKEE" and everybody else fighting the retarded, cuckish thought line that gave the world the Bush dynasty.

Anonymous johnc April 07, 2016 11:35 AM  

I agree with BrianE @74. That is Trump's fundamental flaw. He is all over the map and completely incapable of any consistency and people know it.

Some of the rhetoric is great, but ultimately before casting a vote a person is going to think things through. If everything coming out of his mouth is bullshit, what does it matter if it sounds good?

Blogger frigger611 April 07, 2016 11:39 AM  

@41 It's not Orwell's 1984 we are living, it's Animal Farm. - Sonny Boy

Oh, I wish it were only that bad.

It feels like

1984
Animal Farm
The Trial
Atlas Shrugged
Texas Chain Saw Massacre

to me

Blogger Nate April 07, 2016 11:40 AM  

"Principles wise, he's the type of candidate who will, if given the nomination, destroy the GOP more than Trump. He's 100% orthodox on Conservative issues as defined by the GOP. When people reject him, it will be rejecting his entire ideology."

see DH this is where you lose it. You look at the data and assume its static and trendlines can't change.

The fact that romney got more votes than McCain and Bush does not mean that that those numbers are the ceiling. You look at pure results. You are forgetting that both Romney and McCain were winning those elections and largely threw them by their own stupid mistakes.

Also.. there are tons of conservatives who simply refused to vote in those elections. The reason the numbers are greater than Dubya's is because the tea party brought in a lot of new people to politics that were previously apolitical.

So the GOP base is actually much larger than it was.. but they have been running candidates that the base hates. So the base isn't coming out like it could.

Anonymous Andrew E. April 07, 2016 11:42 AM  

has no coherent political philosophy other than build a wall and stop Muslims and both of those policies he has walked back.

Nonsense. The man has faced an unprecedented scale of opposition for 10 months that would have pounded any other candidate (Cruz included) into dust long ago. Yet here he stands, in first place way ahead of second, platform still intact and closing in on victory with one final push (or two).

Blogger Nate April 07, 2016 11:47 AM  

"Another thread of "Sure, Cruz is an slimy, pro-amnesty sociopath, but he's not a FILTHY YANKEE" and everybody else fighting the retarded, cuckish thought line that gave the world the Bush dynasty."

oh come on... they haven't stolen your precious Trump yet. keep your chin up.

Anonymous #8601 Jean Valjean April 07, 2016 11:47 AM  

From what I saw of Trump's rally last night, he looked in good form, as was the audience. Probably not surprising given the home town crowd. CNN, to their credit, broadcast several minutes live, including the Snake poem. Trump reads the Snake poem at every rally, but I haven't seen CNN broadcast it before.

Blogger Nate April 07, 2016 11:49 AM  

". The man has faced an unprecedented scale of opposition for 10 months that would have pounded any other candidate (Cruz included) into dust long ago"

See?

This is the kind of delusion DH and I complain about. Trump hasn't had opposition at all. He's playing in the kiddy pool. His first real taste of what the media is capable of was his dust up with Matthews... and he got his ass handed to him.

If the media was half as hostile to trump as you people think.. Trump would be dead and buried.

The guy is a talented amateur. That's all.

Anonymous Case April 07, 2016 11:59 AM  

Trump got attacked by a wacko who had tweeted that he was prepared to be a martyr at his Denver rally, The wacko was tackled by the Secret Service and hauled off. Instead of being locked away, he was released and was interviewed by CNN the next day.

The message being sent--attack a non establishment candidate, be a celebrity.

Oh no,...there's no organized hostility towards Trump. None at all

Anonymous VFM #9617 April 07, 2016 11:59 AM  

OT, but wow, just wow:

"A male politician in Norway has opened up about his rape by a Somali man, stating that he felt “guilt and responsibility” for the perpetrator being deported after time in prison."

"He went on to say that “I do not feel anger towards [the perpetrator], for I see him most as a product of an unjust world. A product of an upbringing marked by war and deprivation.”"

https://www.rt.com/news/338779-somalian-refugee-raped-politician/

Anonymous SixtusVITH April 07, 2016 12:02 PM  

your Ted Cruz creating such anger and his pathetic recoiling at the finger of an American employing their First Amendment.

Those "Americans" are immigrants complaining that Cruz is pro-American. Amusingly, they say he has "no place here", as if they own the country that have freeloaded on.

Source: http://nypost.com/2016/04/06/ted-cruzs-campaign-stop-in-the-bronx-is-a-complete-dud/

Blogger dh April 07, 2016 12:03 PM  

> So the GOP base is actually much larger than it was.. but they have been running candidates that the base hates. So the base isn't coming out like it could.

I am not convinced the base is very large anymore. The base is fractured so you have really 4 bases.

The GOP's main problem is that even though the share of white vote is increasing, the relative size of the white vote is reduced as a proportion of the electorate.

If minorities in the US voted in the same proportion as white people, the GOP would win almost no states in national elections. Luckily for the GOP, minorities vote in declining proportion, with the exception of Asians, who appear to vote at about the same rates as whites.

But I agree with you, a candidate who was likeable and inline withe GOP base could do very well. An anti-free trade, anti-globalist, pro-US nationalist who was personally attractive, well spoken, polished, and Christian would likely win in a 40-state landslide.

The problem is finding one.

Blogger Salt April 07, 2016 12:03 PM  

Nate wrote:If the media was half as hostile to trump as you people think.. Trump would be dead and buried.

Megyn Kelly?

Anonymous Andrew E. April 07, 2016 12:04 PM  

Trump's abortion comments to Mathews is great long term for Trump and the pro-life movement. Trump demonstrated his instincts are the correct ones, that he's the only pro-life candidate able to think logically about the issue, that he is the real pro-life candidate in this race and, best of all, he exposed many pro-life conservatives as frauds and forced the movement into a serious bout of introspection to discover what it is the movement really believes. Win, win, win.

Blogger dh April 07, 2016 12:05 PM  

> If the media was half as hostile to trump as you people think.. Trump would be dead and buried.

Agree, he's just starting to get the real treatment. Matthews is a lightweight. Literally, a hack.

The policies Trump supports are not all that bad, I agree with many of them. But he'll be able to make the sale with the packaging.

I think it would do the country a lot of good to get exposure to Trump and his policies, but for him to lose in the general election. There is no way that the establishment is going to let Sec. Clinton lose this race. It's been ordained.

But if Trump can get his act together, be a reliable candidate, and put out his message, he could create an environment where a future nationalist candidate can succeed.

Blogger exfarmkid April 07, 2016 12:05 PM  

28. Denektenorsk: "he whole system is so pointlessly confusing and Byzantine from state to state. It serves one real purpose... to obfuscate results and let "the right kind of people" get into office."

On paper these United States are a federated Constitutional Republic, so of course every state will have its own system. The several systems are not complicated, but if you expect to have any say in how things work, you have to get involved, stay involved and be part of a long-view ground game.

Blogger Sam Lively April 07, 2016 12:05 PM  

The worst thing about Wisconsin was that Cruz outperformed the polls after Trump put a lot of time into campaigning.

But I'm surprised at the "What is wrong with Trump lately" talk. He's the same candidate he's been since June. Makes the same mistakes and weathers them the same way.

The challenges he's facing have far more to do with the states on the calendar than his own behavior.

Look at Wisconsin's polling - they had Walker up huge before he dropped out and they never gave Trump more than low 30s. They like their Repubs earnest and self-serious.

There just wasn't enough of a Trump base there to overcome the establishment coalescing around Cruz.

Anonymous Philalethes April 07, 2016 12:06 PM  

Indeed, there have been worrisome setbacks lately for the Trump Train. Unfortunately, the weaknesses that have been exposed are real, and must be kept in mind. Trump needs to understand that even if, by some miracle, he ends up in the White House, he will still face another four years of the kind of concerted, compunction-free attacks that he's been getting. He may be a great deal maker, with the skill of holding his cards close to his chest (as Scott Adams keeps pointing out), but he's not the kind of complex, multi-layered, devious – and patient – personality that Cruz is.

Trump likes to win, and likes to be liked; the recent losses, plus the constant over-the-top vitriol – which would hardly phase somebody like Cruz – must be taking their toll. I wouldn't be surprised if, somewhere in his subconscious mind – he couldn't admit it to himself consciously – he's beginning to prepare to feel relief at finally having to acknowledge defeat, after a battle fought fairly (on his part, anyway) and with complete determination. So long as he acquits himself honorably, he could live with that – even if a large portion of the American population would be very unhappy about it.

Certainly by far the most unusual (and fascinating) presidential campaign in my lifetime (and the first one I was conscious of was in 1952, when I was nine years old, and remember wearing a Stevenson button to grammar school and getting funny looks).

@63 praetorian:

The next few weeks are going to be so high energy that everyone is going to be exhausted, even those of us who make a point of not giving a shit.

Second that emotion. I was just going to ignore it this year, after having allowed myself to get excited (and, against my better judgement, disappointed) in 2008. I keep telling myself I have better things to do with my time, but am still caught up in it – I guess because of the slight hope of something different than just more business as usual. Four more years of that and I'm afraid America will be beyond saving in any recognizable form. I don't want to have to live through the results.

@41 Sonny Boy:

Also, he wants to curb the power of BLM. That fact that he actually wants to take power away from an abusive govt. agency is enough of a reason by itself.

Haven't been following closely, but haven't heard that Trump has said anything about the Bureau of Land Management. These days, any mention of "BLM" in the news will be about #BlackLivesMatter, I believe. Won't waste any more pixels on them.

Blogger Alexamenos April 07, 2016 12:07 PM  

@Student in Blue

"Alexamenos and Hunsdon remain correct where the underlying motivations are very similar, the expression and approach of said motivation is different."

Yeah, Bernie supporters are much more heavily 'pozzed' as the kids these days say, but a lot of it is coming from the same place.

Blogger Michael O'Duibhir April 07, 2016 12:11 PM  

There's something rock-hard deep down inside the Donald. It's a strength born of countless very tough grapplings with some very tough dudes over the decades. Watch him roar back from this "downside" and laugh while he's doing it.

Blogger exfarmkid April 07, 2016 12:12 PM  

36. Nate: "But Cruz' organization is far bigger and far more disciplined. So if Trump doesn't get to 1237... you can expect Cruz to win on the second vote... and by a landslide."

You have clearly attended conventions at some point in your life.

Blogger Nate April 07, 2016 12:13 PM  

"Agree, he's just starting to get the real treatment. Matthews is a lightweight. Literally, a hack."

Anderson Cooper's "that is the argument of a five year old" was also devestating.

Blogger Nate April 07, 2016 12:13 PM  

"You have clearly attended conventions at some point in your life."

No... I just have friends who are delegates.

Blogger Sam Lively April 07, 2016 12:15 PM  

@84

This is laughably false. Trump may be an amateur politician, but he's a media pro.

That you think he's been wading around in the kiddy pool is evidence of that. He's making it look easy.

Anonymous #8601 Jean Valjean April 07, 2016 12:16 PM  

@Nate - Trump supporters and Bernie supporters are far more similar than you guys will ever admit.

Bernie is my second choice, so yeah.

Blogger Nate April 07, 2016 12:17 PM  

'Megyn Kelly?'

Dude. Megyn asked him tough, but entirely fair questions. She didn't set him up. she asked straight forward questions and let him answer. If you think that is playing dirty then you don't pay attention.

hell my wife watches her show. the woman is often complimentary of Trump.

Blogger Nate April 07, 2016 12:18 PM  

"Bernie is my second choice, so yeah."

See?

This is how you know Trumpkins are retarded.

Blogger exfarmkid April 07, 2016 12:19 PM  

42. After all, the whole process is to get the right sort of candidate.

The "right sort of candidate" is collectively defined by the people who actually get involved and stay involved.

Anonymous Case April 07, 2016 12:20 PM  

The delegate game is only effective as long as the public is ignorant of it. Otherwise, it's just a way to insure that those millions of votes that your opponent has will stay home on election day.

Cruz is in a position where everything he does to win the nomination will hurt him in the general election.

Blogger James Dixon April 07, 2016 12:20 PM  

> Trump may be an amateur politician, but he's a media pro.

Not at dealing with a media that's out to destroy him he isn't. Almost no one is. And that's what's coming if he wins the nomination.

Blogger Salt April 07, 2016 12:20 PM  

I think Nate's about as correct on Trump as he is about his inflation economic prognostication.

Anonymous #8601 Jean Valjean April 07, 2016 12:21 PM  

Retarded = idiot savant.

Blogger Student in Blue April 07, 2016 12:22 PM  

@Nate
This is the kind of delusion DH and I complain about. Trump hasn't had opposition at all.
@dh
Agree, he's just starting to get the real treatment. Matthews is a lightweight. Literally, a hack.

You both are confusing results with attempts. They've been flinging around "anti-woman" trying to get it to stick since August. Trump has just been very good at avoiding and reframing the arguments making them favorable to him.

These attacks only started to stick recently because Trump hasn't been dodging so well and stepped his foot in it, but you're both taking it to mean only now are they asking "the hard questions".

Anonymous Andrew E. April 07, 2016 12:24 PM  

Why does Trump endlessly attack Megyn Kelly? Because he's impulsive? Can't control himself? He's a bozo? Doesn't like strong women? Nope. Because he wants this:

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/04/06/lord-flies-internal-meltdown-fox-news-trump-coverage/

Blogger beerme April 07, 2016 12:24 PM  

My personal victory condition doesn't require a Trump win. I just hope that if Trump goes down in flames in the end that he takes the Republican party with him.

Anonymous #8601 Jean Valjean April 07, 2016 12:29 PM  

Given that Trump has brought the issues of immigration and trade to the forefront, his campaign has already been a yuge success. Anything from here is gravy.

Blogger Salt April 07, 2016 12:32 PM  

Nate wrote:Dude. Megyn asked him tough, but entirely fair questions.

She so overwhelmed Trump that she subsequently changed her appearance to one of take-me-seriously 'power-woman'. Or do you think her change was merely coincidental?

Anonymous #8601 Jean Valjean April 07, 2016 12:32 PM  

Megyn Kelly is a dude.

Blogger VFM #7634 April 07, 2016 12:32 PM  

see? This is the kind of Trump supporter I can really appreciate. Burn it all. or Trump because EFF U. I love these guys. its the true believer trump fan that I love to kick around.

@37 Nate
I'm a "burn it all down" type. I like kicking around sanctimonious #NeverTrump weenies, and get a total charge out of seeing the GOPe running around like panicked, beheaded chickens.

There just wasn't enough of a Trump base there to overcome the establishment coalescing around Cruz.

@93 Sam Lively
As I've said before, there's this constant narrative that Trump got curb-stomped in Wis. and it's now all over for him, but it simply isn't true.

He got 24% in Iowa and 21% in Minnesota.

Trump ended up getting 35% in Wisconsin, which is over 50% more than he got in Minn.

He was in a very hostile part of the country that was never going to support him.

"But Cruz' organization is far bigger and far more disciplined. So if Trump doesn't get to 1237... you can expect Cruz to win on the second vote... and by a landslide."

@Nate
Cruz is doing the Ron Paul type of thing, except with GOPe backing since Little Marco choked. Right now, he's corralling the delegates in the "county convention" states like Colorado, North Dakota, Wyoming, and so forth... although I can't really say that strikes most people as very representative of the voters' wishes.

If Trump does fail to get the 1,237, we'll be relying on Cruz to keep to his repeatedly stated intention that the nominee will only be either him or Trump, and no one else.

If he does succeed in outmaneuvering Trump for the nom, I'll be watching carefully as to how Cruz treats him and his supporters, because the behavior of Cruz supporters, especially the #NeverTrump weenies, up to now has not been conducive to Cruz getting my support in the general.

And then there are the Bernie supporters, who seem to spend most of their time attacking Trump rather than Hillary. I had been sympathetic to his campaign, but his rabidly SJW supporters have turned me completely ambivalent.

Blogger Teri April 07, 2016 12:32 PM  

And this is an interesting story about how effective Cruz is as a senator:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/ted-cruz-senate-rebuke-planned-parenthood-214183

Blogger Sonny Boy April 07, 2016 12:33 PM  

@Philathles

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/donald-trump-takes-on-federal-land-control/article/2579978

Blogger TM Lutas April 07, 2016 12:34 PM  

My understanding has been that the task of actually running the country is a great deal more stressful and tiring than just running for the office. There's a reason those before and after presidency photos seem to age the holder of that office so much. If Trump is wilting under the warmup exercise, how well will he handle the actual job?

Blogger VFM #7634 April 07, 2016 12:35 PM  

My personal victory condition doesn't require a Trump win. I just hope that if Trump goes down in flames in the end that he takes the Republican party with him.

@111 beerme
I hope Trump knows what a Xanatos Gambit is, and how to plan one.

Blogger RobertT April 07, 2016 12:36 PM  

WI is a strange state. I used to have a girlfriend from WI and I did not get along well with her family. And the exit polls in WI confirmed that for me. The percentages of capital C conservative far outnumber the people who would be attracted to Trump. I think I heard that only 6% of WI voters thought illegal immigration was an important issue. On top of the wacko people who live there, the entire WI establishment, Walker Prebus, Ryan bashed Trump at every occasion. More troubling to me is Trump was basically predicting a victory. But having been there and having people stand and cheer when I walked into a room or event, I know that can go to your head. But I thought Trump would be immune to that. But it's a rare person who is.

Blogger Rusty Fife April 07, 2016 12:37 PM  

dh wrote:Cruz is not a bad politican, and his campaign really has it together. It's acutally pretty impressive. He's using better technology than anyone else in the game, has a strong ground game, strong organization, messaging, marketing.

The problem is he's repulsive to most people. He has a beta face, at best, and has none of the qualities of leadership.


So, Nixon redux?

Blogger Nate April 07, 2016 12:38 PM  

"I think Nate's about as correct on Trump as he is about his inflation economic prognostication. "

HA! Well struck.

Ya know the frustrating thing is... the mechanism hasn't been disproven. The givens I used to construct the model never materialized so we haven't gotten to see it tested yet. I need to put that post up explaining how I got it wrong.

Anonymous #8601 Jean Valjean April 07, 2016 12:38 PM  

"Whatever his stumbles of the last two weeks, Trump has helped to unleash the mightiest force of the 21st century: nationalism.” - Pat Buchanan

Anonymous patrick kelly April 07, 2016 12:42 PM  

""I've seen no evidence that suggests the amount of True Believers for Trump are anywhere near as numerous as for Bernie"

Head. Sand. FOOOMP"

Now that's comedy. I love this blog.

Blogger Nate April 07, 2016 12:42 PM  

"If he does succeed in outmaneuvering Trump for the nom, I'll be watching carefully as to how Cruz treats him and his supporters, because the behavior of Cruz supporters, especially the #NeverTrump weenies, up to now has not been conducive to Cruz getting my support in the general."

we've seen that Idiot Buckeye pivot to start sucking up to Trump supporters. I suspect you'll see Cruz doing the same thing.

Blogger exfarmkid April 07, 2016 12:43 PM  

51. Remember that Trump now HAS to win. He has put himself under the Eye at this point.

Not buying it. Donald Trump is anti-PC and actually seems to be some sort of nationalist. If he is elected, people will deal with him and you will not see a huge amount of change (too much inertia). If he is not elected, what has he done that anyone in the Federal power structure would find it profitable to attempt to destroy his life?

Blogger Salt April 07, 2016 12:43 PM  

Nate wrote:I need to put that post up explaining how I got it wrong.

Wait! In a few months you might be granted a two-fer.

Blogger Student in Blue April 07, 2016 12:44 PM  

@116 Teri
And this is an interesting story about how effective Cruz is as a senator:

Actually what struck me was just how more likable and presentable Cruz was via the written word. Then again, a good number of the prose in that article was written casting him in a favorable light rather than being dispassionate.

Regardless, he comes across better in writing than in speech.

Blogger Akulkis April 07, 2016 12:45 PM  

@65

I believe the word you are looking for is "unpossible!"

Blogger VFM #7634 April 07, 2016 12:47 PM  

we've seen that Idiot Buckeye pivot to start sucking up to Trump supporters. I suspect you'll see Cruz doing the same thing.

That's quite ironic, since Kasich is completely wrong on the Big Three (immigration, free trade, foreign policy) whereas Cruz at least makes noises about being right.

Blogger Sam Lively April 07, 2016 12:49 PM  

@106

The media has been out to destroy him (did you miss Megyn Kelly's opening question from the first debate?). But Trump is also out to destroy them - that's why he's been durable, and why reporters are often wary of tangling with him for extended rounds.

If you look at the Chris Matthews exchange, Trump was trying to play offense as well - going after him for his hypocrisy supporting abortion as a Catholic.

Unfortunately for Trump the pro-life/Religious Right establishment condemned him for his work (and his own advisors seemed to demand a quick retreat), leaving him on an island. That's what gave the media the upper hand in that exchange.

Blogger exfarmkid April 07, 2016 12:50 PM  

99. Nate:
'"You have clearly attended conventions at some point in your life."'

"No... I just have friends who are delegates."

Fair enough.

Blogger Nate April 07, 2016 12:51 PM  

"Wait! In a few months you might be granted a two-fer."

mate if you think Paul Ryan or someone else is more likely than Cruz or Trump... you're drunk.

Blogger exfarmkid April 07, 2016 12:54 PM  

111. Beerme: "I just hope that if Trump goes down in flames in the end that he takes the Republican party with him."

I appreciate the sentiment, but you know the old saying: Wish in one hand, piss in the other.....

Blogger Salt April 07, 2016 12:55 PM  

Nate wrote:"Wait! In a few months you might be granted a two-fer."

mate if you think Paul Ryan or someone else is more likely than Cruz or Trump... you're drunk.


Come on, Nate. You'll be able to defend your economics and Trump positions in one post.

Nate wrote:I need to put that post up explaining how I got it wrong.

Blogger James Dixon April 07, 2016 12:57 PM  

> The media has been out to destroy him (did you miss Megyn Kelly's opening question from the first debate?).

If you think that is "out to destroy" you didn't watch the way they treated Palin both during and after the 2008 elections.

Anonymous BGKB April 07, 2016 12:57 PM  

There's a reason those before and after presidency photos seem to age the holder of that office so much.

Keep in mind they will have aged a decade and by the end might have given up coloring their hair. Is there anyone that wouldn't look different on a pic of them at 20yo vs. 30yo?

Nate- No... I just have friends who are delegates.

Is there a noticeable difference between cocaine snorted off a bar counter and cocaine snorted off living flesh?

Dude. Megyn asked him tough, but entirely fair questions.

Megyn let Rupert Murdoch hide behind her lady parts while asking questions.

Anderson Cooper's "that is the argument of a five year old" was also devestating.

The reason Anderson Cooper says nice things about moslem nations is bacha bazi, so the five year olds he knows best might not be very smart.

Haven't been following closely, but haven't heard that Trump has said anything about the Bureau of Land Management

He said the feds have too much land/ mineral rights locked up and that it should either be up for sale or given to the states. Actually I am against selling it as I would rather have China holding worthless fiat paper when the crash comes than deeds to most of the west.

""The BLM controls over 85 percent of the land in Nevada," Trump explains. "In the rural areas, those who for decades have had access to public lands for ranching, mining, logging and energy development are forced to deal with arbitrary and capricious rules that are influenced by special interests that profit from the D.C. rule-making and who fill the campaign coffers of Washington politicians."

Blogger Salt April 07, 2016 12:58 PM  

People give the media way to much ability. Half the time it backfires on them.

Anonymous Case April 07, 2016 1:00 PM  

Conservatism, as it has been defined over the past 40 years or so, is dead in the water. Virtually every politician who crowed about his conservative bona fides over that period has spit right in the constituents face.

For a politician to claim to be a conservative is to claim to be a damn liar.

Nationalism is what the young members of the right are looking for today. They don't give a damn about those old lyin' ass, puckered up, geriatric "conservatives".

Cruz is a young man trying to get by using old man ideology.

Blogger exfarmkid April 07, 2016 1:03 PM  

137. BGKB:

"Nate- No... I just have friends who are delegates."

"BGKB - Is there a noticeable difference between cocaine snorted off a bar counter and cocaine snorted off living flesh?"

Damn, that was one hell of a good shot below-the-belt.

Blogger beerme April 07, 2016 1:06 PM  

@134 As a Georgian, watching a Yankee burn the Republican party to the ground would be popcorn material for years. I don't think he will go kamikaze if he loses, but the thought brings a smile to my face.

Anonymous aegis-1080 April 07, 2016 1:07 PM  

The abortion question didn't went great, since someone should have told Trump that most pro-lifers only cared about optics. Trump thought that they would had his back like his anti-immigration base...and he was wrong.

Anyways. Trump getting 50%+ on NY and blowing Rato out of the water should put things back on schedule. Also, it repulses me how many Rato supporters defend delegate shenanigans as a legitimate way to win an election. Disgraceful. That attitude will only make the fireworks at Cleveland more brighter.

Blogger Nate April 07, 2016 1:08 PM  

"Is there a noticeable difference between cocaine snorted off a bar counter and cocaine snorted off living flesh?"

Steve... it was funny the first several times you've said it. Its beaten well into the ground now.

Blogger Nate April 07, 2016 1:09 PM  

"Damn, that was one hell of a good shot below-the-belt."

are ya knew here? he's been using that same line for over a year.

Anonymous BGKB April 07, 2016 1:09 PM  

Damn, that was one hell of a good shot below-the-belt.

Just to clarify, I assumed Nate would be snorting it off tits with his delegate friends, or at least could ask his friends if there is a difference.

Blogger Escoffier April 07, 2016 1:15 PM  

A man that pays lip service to Jeff sessions is a man I can comfortably vote for.

Blogger Sonny Boy April 07, 2016 1:17 PM  

I think if Trump wins he will pick a VP that will carry his torch. I'm thinking there's a possibility he won't run for a second term, but will do as much as he can in 4 years without having to worry about reelectability.

Blogger Were-Puppy April 07, 2016 1:17 PM  

@41 Sonny Boy

what choice do we have, either vote for someone who we know will screw us or vote for someone who says he won't and hope he doesn't.
---

This has been my conclusion for a long time now

Blogger exfarmkid April 07, 2016 1:28 PM  

"are ya knew here? he's been using that same line for over a year."

Fairly new, yes. Started sort of following this blog at the time of the Nora Jemison kerfluffle. Started commenting on occasion last fall.

Any other pitfalls you believe I should be aware of?

Blogger Sam Lively April 07, 2016 1:28 PM  

@136

I think they just have to attack an NYC alpha media icon in a different way than a provincial beauty queen/anchor babe.

Remember Trump subjected himself to a Comedy Central roast in 2011 - he's just not as vulnerable to traditional media assaults. Ridicule, shame and disgust are their weapons of choice and he's largely immunized himself to these assaults.

So they've had to make him an object of fear - hence the endless Hitler comps, the KKK hysteria, the coordinated efforts to portray his team and his supporters as thugs, and the "punisher of women" angle.

The problem is Trump can and generally has countered that there are far greater threats than him. An object of fear to rapists, terrorists, corrupt politicians and oligarchs is a powerful thing.

The only thing that Trump hasn't been able to figure out is defanging the venomous hostility coming from the conservative, grassroots-level media touting #NeverTrump. That's what has given Cruz legs where Rubio, Jeb and the rest faltered.

The big boys like Rush and Hannity are laying off, but smaller guys like Levin, Shapiro, Erickson, Beck, Walsh and their ilk are doing everything in their power to keep their listeners away from Trump.

Blogger James Dixon April 07, 2016 1:32 PM  

> Any other pitfalls you believe I should be aware of?

Do we dare warn him of the dread equine? Or is merely bringing it up too dangerous?

Anonymous Anonymous April 07, 2016 1:39 PM  

Trump's campaign manager, Corey Lewandowsky, has been tied up with the Michelle Fields' allegations since March 8th, two days after the Sea Island meeting of Republican big shots and other members of the elite. This could really be hurting Trump. Of note, the Michelle Fields' incident occurred just 4 days after little Ben Shapiro wrote his article (March 4th) on Breitbart about how he would never vote for Trump. Shapiro was a vigorous defender of Fields. Could the incident have been contrived to deliberately hurt Trump?

Blogger Sevron April 07, 2016 1:43 PM  

Uh, no duh. The Fields thing is obviously horse shit designed to hurt Trump. Was anybody in doubt? It's irrelevant who exactly is behind it.

Anonymous Til April 07, 2016 1:47 PM  

Trump is already plotting his pivot.

He's going to give a series of policy speeches. His AIPAC speech went over extremely well, so I expect good things.

After his opponents have called him stupid for so long, this should help quite a bit. They'll try to bury it, of course.

Blogger S1AL April 07, 2016 1:50 PM  

"Steve... it was funny the first several times you've said it. Its beaten well into the ground now."

Careful. Next thing you know he's going to find extra letters for his screen name to further torment the dead.

Anonymous drnick April 07, 2016 1:54 PM  

I'd be rather disappointed if being tired was the real explanation for Trump collapsing. He was on break throughout Easter weekend: he can't count on having much more time to relax during the general. After all, he isn't Hillary Clinton.

Blogger exfarmkid April 07, 2016 1:56 PM  

145.

Me: "Damn, that was one hell of a good shot below-the-belt."

BGKB: "Just to clarify, I assumed Nate would be snorting it off tits with his delegate friends, or at least could ask his friends if there is a difference."

....and your clarification takes all the "zing" out of what started as a clever insult.

Blogger Student in Blue April 07, 2016 2:06 PM  

Nah, it just made what was otherwise beating a dead horse into a "oh, right, that also happens".

Anonymous Val April 07, 2016 2:08 PM  

Trump campaign manager, Corey Lewandowsky, has been hobbled since March 8th, when Michelle Fields accused him of roughly grabbing her arm. This incident occurred just two days after the Sea Island meeting of Republican big shots and other members of the elite. All of Trump's recent problems, including the growing narrative that he's anti-women, have occurred since the Sea Island meeting.

Anonymous Broken Arrow April 07, 2016 2:11 PM  

Even if Trump fails to win the presidency he's lit a nationalist fire which might burn brightly and without a doubt given the Establishment pause on their policies. I purposefully read Establishment sites and they are now talking about free trade, the working white class (though generally insultingly) and the failure of our current system to protect American workers.

I'm not saying they are going to change their ways, but they are at least asking the questions among themselves now which it was never even bothered to be asked before.

The only thing which is not a question is open borders with amnesty, which is of course the most important thing. The Establishment is picking that hill to die on from what I can tell.

Anonymous Craig April 07, 2016 2:15 PM  

When he's winning he appears to have a better grasp on what attacks to address and what attacks to ignore. When he isn't winning he appears to lose that ability and lash out at everything and everyone that says anything negative about him.

This is an excellent point


excellent recognition

Blogger praetorian April 07, 2016 2:37 PM  

Its beaten well into the ground now.

beaten well into

the ground

SUGAR TITS>
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SUGAR TITS>

Anonymous Red April 07, 2016 2:39 PM  

I see the paid Cruz shills are out and once again using the same lyin' talking points as Refeal Cruz.

Anonymous gxg April 07, 2016 2:41 PM  

Smaller guys like Levin, Shapiro, Erickson, Beck, Walsh and their ilk are doing everything in their power to keep their listeners away from Trump.

True. And they're losing listeners in the process. Beck was boo-hooing a few weeks ago that people were calling radio stations, demanding his show be replaced with something else.

Have these guys damaged Trump? Maybe. But, like National Review, they've also hurt themselves in the process by revealing their cuckiness.

This election cycle will eventually end, but the damage they've done to their brands will be long-lasting.

Blogger Sam Lively April 07, 2016 3:02 PM  

@163

I want to know how to bring their listeners into the fold. I think Laura Ingraham and Ann Coulter are doing solid work from within the conservative talk radio subculture, but they are both east coast types who don't quite get the people on the other side of the Mississippi.

Palin and Carson would seem to be good choices as ambassadors, but neither have been all that effective (maybe because they got blacklisted by conservative media as soon as they supported Trump.)

Anonymous BGKB April 07, 2016 3:04 PM  

SUGAR TITS>SUGAR TITS>SUGAR TITS>

OT: look at the white privilege form 7th graders have to fill out in Spanish class, normal girl listed herself as mentally disabled from teacher abuse & listed herself as pan sexual for not being interested in sex.
http://www.thedailysheeple.com/how-much-white-privilege-do-you-have-take-this-survey-handed-out-to-florida-7th-graders-to-find-out_042016
So not only is the teacher teaching students they have “white privilege” but that ADHD is a mental disability? Sounds exactly like the type of individual you’d want discussing gender and sexual orientation with your 12 or 13-year-old kid.

The form was handed out to 7th and 8th graders. Although supposedly not required, the Spanish teacher claims the goal of this form is to teach her kids about “diversity and inequality”.

Anonymous Leonidas April 07, 2016 3:08 PM  

FWIW, it seems like Trump has figured out that he needs to get his energy back, and he's rededicated everything to New York. One of the interesting things about him, and other highly successful people in his mold (Cernovich, Scott Adams, even our esteemed host) is that they've very precisely nailed down the formula that works for them and stick to it religiously. I think this indicates that Trump is very self aware of his own strengths and weaknesses and has decided, once again, to play to his strengths.

I also think it's a good call. Everything hinges on New York at this point - if he steamrollers Cruz there - and I mean an absolute steamroller - he might very well regain his momentum and close this thing. And given how far he's already up there, if he focuses on it for two weeks he really might take all 95 delegates.

Anonymous #8601 Jean Valjean April 07, 2016 3:12 PM  

At least The Donald didn't choke as bad as Ernie Els.

Blogger Alexamenos April 07, 2016 3:13 PM  

I'm seeing Cruz Crew types slamming the FEC for entirely unprovoked reasons. Is this a hint that an FEC complaint against Cruz is coming soon?

Blogger Snidely Whiplash April 07, 2016 3:20 PM  

VFM #7634 wrote:I'm a "burn it all down" type. I like kicking around sanctimonious #NeverTrump weenies, and get a total charge out of seeing the GOPe running around like panicked, beheaded chickens.

Me too. But every once in a while I feel a flicker of hope that Trump will actually do what he says.

It's disconcerting.

Anonymous gxg April 07, 2016 3:27 PM  

Re: #164: "I want to know how to bring their listeners into the fold. I think Laura Ingraham and Ann Coulter are doing solid work...but they are both east coast types..."

This is a great point. The thing that's stopped me from calling my radio station about Levin is I'm not sure who to suggest as an alternative. For example, a call saying, "take Levin off the air," is less likely to be acted on than call to "replace Levin with so-and-so."

This presents a potential opportunity for another host to start (or grow) a talk-show in that same time-slot. Laura Ingraham used to air in our local Alabama market, but was replaced with someone else (I can't remember who) a few years ago, which supports your theory that East Coast types might not do well here.

Anonymous Craig April 07, 2016 3:33 PM  

very precisely nailed down the formula that works for them and stick to it religiously.

I like that

Blogger VFM #7634 April 07, 2016 3:35 PM  

April 19: NY with 95 > Trump, mostly

April 26: CT, DE, MD, PA, RI: 172. Should be mostly Trump, although MD may have enough GOPe types in the DC area to tip it to Cruz, who is the new Rubio. Also, Pennsylvania could be problematic in how they award delegates, even though the popular vote should favor Trump.

May 3: Indiana, with 57 delegates. Nailbiter like Missouri. Maybe Kasich will siphon off enough #NeverTrump support from Cruz to tip it to Trump.

May 10: Nebraska (36), West Virginia (34). Nebraska looks like natural Cruz territory, while W.Va. will go Trump.

May 17: Oregon (28), and May 24: Washington (44). Not sure about these two Pac NW states. They shouldn't have as many Cruzbots as Idaho, though, since they have a lot fewer Mormons, and the non-Mormons aren't as religious.

June 7: CA (172), MT (27), NJ (51), NM (24), SD (29). My guess is that Trump will get CA and NJ, and Cruz will get NM and SD. Not sure about Montana (see previous remarks about OR and WA).

Trump still could get the 1,237 delegates, but it requires he curb-stomp Cruz in states where he's leading. But I think it's doable. Two big reasons: he managed to edge Cruz in Missouri (I was expecting Cruz to win), and he did pull in 35% in Wisconsin, perhaps the most hostile state in the Union for him aside from Utah. Even Charles Krauthammer called attention to his solid floor in Wis.

Blogger Student in Blue April 07, 2016 3:48 PM  

Even if Trump fails to win the presidency he's lit a nationalist fire which might burn brightly and without a doubt given the Establishment pause on their policies.

He didn't start the fire.

It was always burning, since the world's been turning.

Blogger Teri April 07, 2016 3:51 PM  

I think Cruz gets Montana. I am not sure about OR and WA, although I live in WA. The rural areas in both states are conservative and might be a better fit with Trump. We are having a primary in WA state, so will be interesting. And both states are strictly vote by mail.

Blogger SciVo April 07, 2016 3:55 PM  

Nate wrote:well I say that.. if Trump and Cruz both qualify under rule 40.. it won't change because their delegates will use it as a fire wall to prevent the kind of shenanigans you guys fear.

What I expect to happen.. is it will get adjusted down just enough to allow only cruz and trump to qualify. So if cruz has say... over 50% in 4 states... and Trump has over 50% in 9 or 10... Rule 40 will be amended down to 4 from 8.

And thus guaranteeing it will either be Trump or Cruz.


Sounds plausible. Right now, Cruz has delegate majorities in Idaho, Kansas, Maine, Texas, Utah and Wisconsin. So it will be at least 6.

Blogger Matamoros April 07, 2016 4:01 PM  

@ #25 - There is definitely a moral struggle going on between the forces of light and those of darkness - as Trump tries to break the evil stranglehold on America.

This is from Jim Stone:

March 31 2016
America has said NO!

By standing behind Trump, America has said NO to abortion. And therefore, Americans cannot be held accountable for what happens next, after that choice gets stolen from them and handed to Hillary via appointment. Don't think for a minute Hillary will fry, America is being dismantled at this time and the election does not mean a damn thing. The only thing that matters to those stealing it is whether or not they can manipulate the general public perceptions well enough to make enough people believe Trump actually lost, when in reality I'd bet he has taken 75 percent of the vote across the board, if not more. The elections are so rigged that it is beyond in-your-face obvious.
Trump sucked up to AIPAC, as all candidates must, but remember, Trump has never used a teleprompter before AIPAC, which means he lied his @ss off in front of them - he read a script someone else wrote, repeated it verbatim, and did the political deed I believe he has absolutely no intentions of following through on, because he knows the gig. And THAT is a batch of campaign rhetoric that I'd be glad to watch him reneg on, and you can bet he will, even though his family has been infiltrated by a Jewish sugar daddy. If his daugter is that naieve, well, she is not Trump himself, and Trump did NOT marry a Jewist. I'd ignore the AIPAC suck up, what else could he do and live? Trump is the anti-abortion President America asked for. Trump is the anti-war President America asked for. Trump is the anti-chinese go to HELL WAL MART candidate America asked for. Trump is the nationalist who will stop paying illegals the money YOU MADE, AT YOUR JOB, IF YOU STILL HAVE A JOB AFTER AN ILLEGAL TOOK IT. And this is something America has asked for, over and over and over and over again but because the elections are rigged, no one in power gave a damn.

Americans have spoken and said no. Therefore, they are not responsible spiritually, or accountable before God for the heinous moral crimes of the Jewish establishment which have been committed in the name of America, nor are they responsible for the death of the country when they clearly voted to stop it, and subsequently had Kikedom do whatever it wanted.

However, it could not possibly be more clear that an elitist cabal has taken over America, and that the people no longer have a say. This puts a huge duty of responsibility on the good people of America to overthrow that cabal by force, with a new deal written in blood because it is the only ink they will ever understand. Send them a "long bow" message. It never happens any other way, you can quote Gandhi all you want, but quite frankly I think he was a psy op. If the American people try to overthrow tyranny by force and fail, they will not be morally responsible for the outcome, because at least they tried. But if they sit on the couch and do nothing, then all bets are off, I really do not know where the chips will fall on the other side.

Blogger Matamoros April 07, 2016 4:01 PM  

Continued...

The people have spoken. The majority of Americans want a far more moralistic America than they are being allowed to have, and the aemoralism is now being slammed on Americans by the force of rigged and fraudulent elections. When Trump firmly announced his stand on abortion that was the clincher for me - I cannot believe he had the guts to say the things he said, and now know with clarity that America has not gone down a rat hole, instead, America is being pushed into a rat hole against it's will by incredibly evil people. The case can no longer be made that America deserves to die because of a lack of morals, with the most popular candidate in the last 100 years being profoundly pro-life that case is proven beyond doubt.

Let's hope God sees fit to correct enough "errors" in the election process to put the people's true choice in the drivers seat. God only knows what will happen. I believe it is time for everyone to pray.

Blogger Nate April 07, 2016 4:29 PM  

"I'm seeing Cruz Crew types slamming the FEC for entirely unprovoked reasons."

You realize that Cruz people hate government right? Damn near all of it.

Blogger Nate April 07, 2016 4:32 PM  

"
SUGAR TITS>
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SUGAR TITS>"

Are ya triggered? You look triggered. Maybe you should go sit down before you catch the vapors.

Blogger Student in Blue April 07, 2016 4:57 PM  

Are ya triggered? You look triggered. Maybe you should go sit down before you catch the vapors.

Again, Nate, you know nothing of memes.

Anonymous Ominous Cowherd April 07, 2016 5:05 PM  

"You realize that Cruz people hate government right? Damn near all of it."

Hope you're right, but not sure of it. The Cruzbots I've seen on a dimwit forum seem typical cuckservatives; they hate big government except the parts they like. Cut muh government, but not muh Social Security.

Anonymous Andrew E. April 07, 2016 5:17 PM  

Cruz is playing lawyer tricks with his unreported loans from his Senate run. And he may have violated campaign laws by coordinating with his super-pac on a commercial. This is what the Trump campaign was referring to in their post-Wisconsin statement.

http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/04/06/yes-its-true-ted-cruz-may-have-violated-fec-rules-with-super-pac-coordination/

Blogger Austin Ballast April 07, 2016 5:34 PM  

My wife is backing off her Cruz support after learning of his Dominionist background and Mormon leanings.

Those could really torpedo Cruz with many evangelicals if they gained more press time.

Anonymous Karl Rove Of The Uniparty April 07, 2016 5:35 PM  

Stop your silly fretting, people.
Paul Ryan is tanned, rested and ready!

Remember, regardless of which wing wins, we win. Get on our side for your own good.

Anonymous A Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents April 07, 2016 5:38 PM  

Nate

You realize that Cruz people hate government right? Damn near all of it.


Except for Social Security. And disability. And Special Ed. And K-12 Ed because their school district is "a good one". And state universities, because muh education. And so forth, and so on.

C'mon, Nate, you can troll better than this.

Blogger Azimus April 07, 2016 5:47 PM  

These last few weeks have made me fearful that Trump will pull out after the convention and before the election and let the whole edifice come crashing down. I believe this is how Obama became a senator, and also how Hillary won her senate spot. I am not a Trump supporter or a Trump hater, but the behavior of the last few weeks does make me nervous he's going to get the nomination, find out he can't beat 40% in general voting population polling, and walk away.

Blogger BrianE April 07, 2016 5:49 PM  

@172 "...Washington (44). Not sure about these two Pac NW states. They shouldn't have as many Cruzbots as Idaho, though, since they have a lot fewer Mormons, and the non-Mormons aren't as religious."

Haven't seen any polling yet, but my gut is Kasich will do well here on the West side, and Cruz and Trump will do well on the East side. I would guess the results will be something like Wisconsin.
This is a WAG.
The fact that Sanders trounced Clinton in the democrat caucus so we know how socialist the liberals are.

Blogger BrianE April 07, 2016 5:52 PM  

@183
"My wife is backing off her Cruz support after learning of his Dominionist background and Mormon leanings."

What do you mean by Mormon leanings?

Blogger SirHamster April 07, 2016 5:52 PM  

Austin Ballast wrote:My wife is backing off her Cruz support after learning of his Dominionist background and Mormon leanings.

What are Cruz's Mormon leanings?

Blogger Sam Lively April 07, 2016 6:20 PM  

@172

I think Oregon has some Trump potential. I spent about half my childhood bouncing around the rural outskirt of the major population centers (where the GOP voters areO. Much greater tolerance for big personalities and political incorrectness out there and much more unrest than the buttoned-up Midwest. It's not just Portland that's weird - most of the state is ripe for rabble-rousing.

Blogger SciVo April 07, 2016 6:37 PM  

@190:

Oregon is one of the most unchurched states in the union. Also, our businessmen are more casual than most places. And you don't have to get far out of the city for every bar to be a country bar.

Furthermore, since Hispanics are over 10% and non-Hispanic whites are under 80% now, it has gone from one of the last bastions of the KKK to a place where, in fact, whites live next to non-whites.

My best guess until we get a poll is that Oregon will be Trump territory.

Blogger SciVo April 07, 2016 6:39 PM  

P.S. I'm pretty sure Oregon will be Sanders territory. The Democrats already voted against Rodham once; I expect them to do it again.

Blogger Sam Lively April 07, 2016 6:51 PM  

@191 SciVo

Were you around for Measure 9 in 92?

Blogger BrianE April 07, 2016 6:55 PM  

"Cruzbots"-- what a funny term. As far as I can tell, and as a tentative Cruz supporter, Cruz is leading a political philosophy of limited constitutional governance.
Trump supporters philosophy seems to be nationalism-- and I'm sometimes baffled by their ability to ignore the contradictions of his positions.
But for the most part, I'm just not in favor of labels.

Blogger Rusty Fife April 07, 2016 7:04 PM  

BrianE wrote:Trump supporters philosophy seems to be nationalism-- and I'm sometimes baffled by their ability to ignore the contradictions of his positions.

But for the most part, I'm just not in favor of labels.


Sure, the axis establishment has been waging the campaigns on for the lass 100yrs has been: Communalism <-> Individualism. Meanwhile they have assumed the Globalist side of the Globalism <-> Nationalism axis.

Trump is challenging that assumption. Very few people (generally only billionairs) can actually prosper in Globalist Individualism.

Blogger Scott6584 April 07, 2016 7:11 PM  

I'd no one reaches a majority of pledged delegates (1237), then the guy with the most votes is not the winner. It just means that everyone lost. At that point, the differing factions begin negotiating with one another to form a "coalition" that can claim the majority together. This is EXACTLY how every single parliamentary style democracy in the world works. It is how the Founders expected it to work in the USA, which is why they put the mechanism in place for the House of Representatives to elect the President if/when no one gets a majority of Electors.

In many places around the world, the party with the most votes ends up out of power because other factions opposing the one with the plurality of support band together to form a government. There is nothing nefarious about this process.

Trump has two paths to victory: win an outright majority prior to the Convention, or persuade other factions to join him in a majority at the convention.

This happened in 1976, when neither Ford, nor Reagan won a majority of delegates. Ford persuaded others to join him in a coalition, and that coalition won a majority of delegates at the convention propelling him to the nomination. Trump can do the same thing.

But if he falls short, then he needs to be able to make deals to get the support he needs. This should be no problem for the ultimate deal maker. If he is unable to make the requisite deals, he is exposed as a bad deal maker.

That is why he needs to stop pissing off so many Republicans. They can also form a majority coalition to give the nomination to someone else.

The close Trump gets to an outright majority, the easier it will be to make a deal. And those farther away will have a more difficult time putting together a majority coalition.

There is NOTHING dishonest or underhanded about that process. Everything is above board.

But if Trump manages to miss the mark, and also manages to piss off half of his own delegates, that is no one's fault but his own.

The other candidates may not be able to beat Trump outright, but he can sure ensure his own loss if he continues down the same paths he has taken on the last couple of weeks.

Don't get me wrong. I am not concerned about Trump. I sincerely hope he keeps up the antics, and dooms his own campaign. But he will have done it to himself if it happens. No one will have "stolen" anything from him.

As far as I am concerned, he can take his whiny as back to the Upper East side and pout. I have no sympathy for his troubles.

Blogger Rusty Fife April 07, 2016 7:19 PM  

Scott6584 wrote:. I sincerely hope he keeps up the antics, and dooms his own campaign. But he will have done it to himself if it happens.

I still haven't figured out what Trump has done to offend you so. Not fallen to the white Knights over matters of communication style?

You aren't one of those who think women have no moral agency, are you?

Blogger SciVo April 07, 2016 7:30 PM  

Sam Lively wrote:@191 SciVo

Were you around for Measure 9 in 92?


Yes, but I wasn't as politically active and aware back then. I don't remember it.

Blogger Were-Puppy April 07, 2016 7:38 PM  

@170 gxg

This is a great point. The thing that's stopped me from calling my radio station about Levin is I'm not sure who to suggest as an alternative.
---

Herman Cain is the only talk show I listen to any more.
But he is based in Atlanta, not sure if that fits your situation.

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