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Sunday, June 05, 2016

Mailvox: forgetting 2008

Nathan thinks the general election is already over:
The game hasn't changed one bit. When the Gen Election hits Clinton will know exactly the states where she has to win and she'll secure them pretty easily. The game is called Electoral Collage Math. She starts with NY, CA, IL, NJ, MA and who bunch of others. My bet is that Trump will find a way to convince himself that he SHOULD win NY and will spend time there. Meanwhile, Clinton will camp out in places like Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, NC, AZ, NV and WA.

The poor guy doesn't get it. He was overmatched the minute he secured the nomination.
Nathan appears to have forgotten that Hillary Clinton was the candidate who failed to understand the rules of the Democratic nomination in formulating her strategy and named a wannabe lawyer with a poli-sci degree from Middlebury and no absolutely experience in the real world her top economic adviser.

Perhaps she's learned from her past failures, but until we see some evidence, I wouldn't put too much stock in the competence of the Hillary campaign, much less her overmatching anyone. Especially when one considers how much trouble she is having putting away an ancient Vermont socialist who isn't even a Democrat, despite having the DNC, the superdelegates, and the media in her pocket. She is an exceptionally bad candidate who has never beaten anyone who didn't take a fall.

The state-by-state demographics are the sole reason for concern, but as others have pointed out, the conventional electoral math no longer applies once whites unite behind a political identity. Will that happen soon enough to elect Donald Trump?

Therein lies the question.

Labels: ,

111 Comments:

Anonymous Garrulus June 05, 2016 5:32 AM  

https://twitter.com/Nickf4rr/status/739298929519562752

SJW's always eat their own. Interesting case developing.

Blogger Shimshon June 05, 2016 5:36 AM  

Being challenged by Sanders is laughable. They tried to tar Ron Paul with the "he's not a real Republican" because of his one 1988 Libertarian candidacy, despite decades of Republican affiliation, before and after.

I guess that argument, despite being much more justifiable when directed at Sanders, who was literally never a Democrat, is something they don't want to try. Or they're not very good at it. Regardless, the fact is, a non-Democrat is giving Hillary serious migraines right about now. Something that should not be happening if the nomination and election are both in the bag.

Anonymous Michael Goldberg Horowitz Cohen June 05, 2016 5:50 AM  

The state-by-state demographics are the sole reason for concern

Doomed I tell you! Doomed!

Caucasians like myself need to flee while we still have a chance.

Blogger dvdivx June 05, 2016 6:00 AM  

It's not that he wins its who wins the votes. Just look at the resent Austria election on what happened there. Votes count in a working system not a tyranny out to destroy.

Blogger Aeoli Pera June 05, 2016 6:06 AM  

The state-by-state demographics are the sole reason for concern, but as others have pointed out, the conventional electoral math no longer applies once whites unite behind a political identity. Will that happen soon enough to elect Donald Trump?

Do nonwhites have the low time preference required to refrain from driving them into a corner?

I rest my case: Trump wins in a landslide.

Blogger Aeoli Pera June 05, 2016 6:07 AM  

That said, I'm voting for Hillary. Better to get this shit over with sooner rather than later.

Anonymous Wesson June 05, 2016 6:13 AM  

Cynics might say she did manage to squeak by JFK, Jr.

Anonymous Opposition Plant #9 June 05, 2016 6:41 AM  

The state-by-state demographics are the sole reason for concern, but as others have pointed out, the conventional electoral math no longer applies once whites unite behind a political identity. Will that happen soon enough to elect Donald Trump?

I think it might be too late for Caucasians. We just need to go away some how.

I'm just laying here now. I've stopped eating.

I... uhhh...
It's getting cold.

I can't feel my legs.

Blogger Phillip George June 05, 2016 6:41 AM  

The perpetual capitulation over the Overton Window was the most interesting comment I think I've read here in two weeks. So long as Democrats are framing the debate they win.

So here's an "outside Overton"; If the pathological altruism self immolating churchians of niceness ever awaken to themselves being turkey's voting for the spit roast nothing will contain the landslide.

Deep-seated … religious beliefs” have to be changed for abortion

OpenID bc64a9f8-765e-11e3-8683-000bcdcb2996 June 05, 2016 6:44 AM  

It's always amusing to read mavens imagining themselves in the
position of coach, or "advisor", to folks playing Stratego-with-dice. Their imagined x-ray vision of ALL the pieces, and
telekinetic "statistically" control of the dice,can ONLY come from supergenious brain mutation, by extended exposure to radiation from bricks in institutional education training cells.
CaptDMO

Blogger Cataline Sergius June 05, 2016 6:49 AM  

If the old rules still applied, Trump would be long gone and Jeb Bush would be the one calling for party unity.

Both parties are undergoing a crisis of legitimacy.

The voting blocks are still there but are now up for grabs in a way they haven't been for a long time.

Although I think we can forget about the Hispanic vote. That one is gone.

Anonymous Steve June 05, 2016 6:54 AM  

Is Electoral Collage Math the new Ted Cruz Ground Game?

Hillary's a shit-tier candidate with no reason to be President other than "it's MY turn!". She makes Al Gore and John Kerry look like elder statesmen by comparison and - despite the Bernie factor energising SJW college kids - turnout for Democratic primaries has dropped by huge percentages over 2008.

Not even Bill Clinton seems excited about a Hillary presidency. The only demographic that seems to positively want Hillary is dried-up old white feminist hags who are killing time before they die alone and get eaten by their cats.

Everybody else either hates her or reacts to her with 50 shades of meh.

She's so shit-scared of being questioned over her criminal activities and/or reminding voters what a horrible cunt she is that she hasn't yet held a press conference this year.

Her social media team keeps telling voters to think of Trump as President-Elect.

Conclusion: for the first time since 9 months before she squatted out Chelsea, Hillary is fucked.

Blogger Aaron B. June 05, 2016 7:00 AM  

The demographic shift is a problem; that's why many a couple years ago thought Republicans might never be able to win again. A conventional Republican of the "diversity is our strength" variety couldn't. Trump just might.

Turnout is critical. In recent decades, about 60% of eligible voters show up. If Trump gets whites excited -- or just wanting to be in on the fun -- enough to turn out at a 70% rate, he wins in a walk, because Hillary's sure not going to inspire a big turnout. That's without counting whatever appeal he might have to independents.

Blogger synp June 05, 2016 7:02 AM  

Garrulus wrote:https://twitter.com/Nickf4rr/status/739298929519562752

SJW's always eat their own. Interesting case developing.


Huh? What? Why? I've met Jacob Appelbaum and he's an irritating prick. But a rapist? Didn't seem the type. Also this is strangely reminiscent of the conveniently-timed allegations against Julian Assange that seemed to surface just when he was about to publish something that would embarrass the government.

Blogger YIH June 05, 2016 7:12 AM  

I'm waiting to see how the CA vote goes, it's possible she won't win the state - or like KY, just barely. IIRC, that would leave Sanders with as many or more non-super delegates as the Lizard Queen.
He's strongly implied he'll go for a convention fight, and something is going to have to done to buy him off - and I don't think VP is going to cut it.
There's also the possibility that if Hillary manages to get the nom, Bernie could run third party, has the Green Party made it's pick yet? Bernie would obviously be the strongest candidate they've ever had - if that happens, the Lizard Queen is as someone else put it, shlonged.

Anonymous Steve June 05, 2016 7:14 AM  

Although I think we can forget about the Hispanic vote. That one is gone.

I think Trump may surprise you with how well he does among Hispanics. From what I've seen there are quite a few of them stumping for Presidente Trump.

The majority will always vote for the socialist party offering most gibs though, just as those natural conservatives in Mexico kept the Institutional Revolutionary Party in power for about 70 years.

Blogger Bob Loblaw June 05, 2016 7:15 AM  

The demographic shift is a problem; that's why many a couple years ago thought Republicans might never be able to win again.

That depends. Whites are still the largest ethnic group in the US. Republicans can still win by securing a larger percentage of the white vote. Hell, Republicans will win if the can go 50:50 on single white women.

Anonymous Wanderer June 05, 2016 7:22 AM  

@14: TOR seems heavily converged.

One SJW is one too many.

I wonder if Jacob regrets letting them in?

Anonymous Desiderius June 05, 2016 7:24 AM  

"Republicans will win if the can go 50:50 on single white women"

Women don't become white until they marry.

Anonymous Wanderer June 05, 2016 7:27 AM  

@14: Very converged: Lots of "victims".

Blogger Phillip George June 05, 2016 7:28 AM  

America's real problem is they might get the government they deserve. still reads like zombie apocalypse doesn't it?

Blogger Krul June 05, 2016 7:39 AM  

Wanderer wrote:@14: Very converged: Lots of "victims".

Those pics, though. "Protect me, my glasses! Protect me from this cruel world!"

Blogger Eric June 05, 2016 7:52 AM  

A major problem for HRC is that the more people see her (and the more ppl that hear that voice) the more her poll numbers go down. The idea that she will camp out in the swing states should be music to the ears of everyone on the Trump Train.

Anonymous NorthernHamlet June 05, 2016 8:20 AM  

Hillary's logo and catchphrase are pretty bad too, IMO. Even her ads feel like something out of a bad 90s sitcom. It all feels a little bit like parody in a bad way.

Blogger justthinkin June 05, 2016 8:25 AM  

@11 When I lived in Brownsville, I noticed that the only people "Mexican-Americans" hate worse that black people are illegal immigrants.

Blogger justthinkin June 05, 2016 8:25 AM  

@11 When I lived in Brownsville, I noticed that the only people "Mexican-Americans" hate worse that black people are illegal immigrants.

Blogger Salt June 05, 2016 8:30 AM  

Hillary's problems keep getting worse.

The secret project is causing deep concern inside of Clinton's campaign, sources tell the DRUDGE REPORT.

Specific details of the agent's confessional are being held under tight embargo.

"What I saw in the 1990s sickend me," Byrne explains. "I want you to hear my story."

Blogger YIH June 05, 2016 8:33 AM  

Wanderer wrote:@14: Very converged: Lots of "victims".
But his name echoes, so he's got that going for him.

Blogger Marsh June 05, 2016 8:48 AM  

Who's Nathan?

Blogger John Saunders June 05, 2016 8:51 AM  

I sincerely doubt Trump thinks he can actually win in New York, California and so on. But by trying there he makes the Dems spend money and resources in what should be safe bulwarks for them, and forcing your enemy to extensity is always good tactics.

Trump's Electoral Math play is to pull the Rust Belt states out of the Democrat Party and into the Republican Party - states populated by working class whites the Democrats have both taken for granted and written off as disposable. "What's the Matter with Michigan?" is very much the reverse of the "What's the Matter with Kansas?" thesis of a decade back - hereditary Dems in the Rust Belt are voting against their economic interests.

Anonymous Nathan June 05, 2016 8:51 AM  

Demographics is the problem. Trump Doesn't win among young people, minorities, women or the educated. That's not going to change. Plus, hillary gets a BiG bump when Bernie drops out.

The election isn't even close.

As an aside, if Trump wins he will be the first presidential winner to lose his home state since, well, ever as far as I can tell. The bottom line here is those who win the presidential election don't lose their home state. Trump is going to lose his home state.

Anonymous JAG June 05, 2016 8:55 AM  

@20

Every one of the "victims" is a hipster douche faggot that all look exactly alike. Even better is that I knew they would all look like hipster douche faggots before I even opened the link. If the USA ever has to go to war to defend the country it will have to be mid 40 something Gen Xers doing the fighting as the millennials are for the most part hipster douche faggots who could not hope to win against the Salvation Army.

Anonymous Steve June 05, 2016 8:57 AM  

Every one of the "victims" is a hipster douche faggot that all look exactly alike

Uh...

Anonymous JAG June 05, 2016 8:59 AM  

Since Nathan has thrown in the towel he ought to shut the fuck up and disappear while the rest of us get on with this.

Anonymous JAG June 05, 2016 9:01 AM  

@33

I opened the link to this jacob whoever and there was a lineup of hipster douche faggots. Was this not the real lineup of victims? Did I get trolled. I need a little more than "Uh..." for feedback if I am in error.

Anonymous Wanderer June 05, 2016 9:05 AM  

So, I think that Jakob sexually assaulted my dog. I will have to add my dog's voice to the chorus. I am sure there are a thousand voices that can be added to the chorus.

Blogger The Observer June 05, 2016 9:08 AM  

"Demographics is the problem. Trump Doesn't win among young people, minorities, women or the educated. That's not going to change."

Lol.

"Only raciss sexiss ignorant redneck hicks vote for Trump!"

Now where have we head that before?

Anonymous Nathan June 05, 2016 9:13 AM  

It's all about the Pivot. You know a candidate is the nominee when they begin to pivot to address the general electorate, rather than the extreme party partisans who come out in the primaries.

Generally, the candidate that has to pivot least, wins.

Trump has a problem insofar as he CANT pivot far enough to attract independents and moderate democrats without coming off like an unauthentic flip flopper.

Trump has tried to pivot early by denouncing his own tax plan. However, now he has to deny having even said the things he said, rather than claiming he was misinterpreted. That's a very bad sign. In fact, Trump's primary statements and claims were so out of the mainstream that he actually will be forced to run on them because no member of the press of the Clinton campaign will let anyone forget what he said. That's also very bad news for Mr. Trump.

Shillery will spend the entire two or three debates simply listing the silly things that came out of Trumps mouth in very undisciplined moments during the campaign. Trump will harp on Benghazi and emails. Hillary has become pretty adept at pivoting from those debacles. Trump has yet to demonstrate he can get out from under what he said during the primaries.

It's not even close.

Anonymous Steve June 05, 2016 9:18 AM  

JAG - they're all pictures of the same guy.

Nathan - Trump might as well pack it in. America's going to catch Hillary fever.

Also, there's no way Trump's going to beat Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz or Scott Walker, because everybody hates a charismatic alpha male who plays by his own rules.

It's Peak Trump, you guise! For reals this time.

Blogger Mr. B.A.D. June 05, 2016 9:36 AM  

The only people I've heard voice any support for Clinton are blacks.

Blogger Mr. B.A.D. June 05, 2016 9:37 AM  

The only people I've heard voice any support for Clinton are blacks.

Anonymous Elijah Rhodes June 05, 2016 9:38 AM  

What Nathan doesn't seem to realize (or perhaps he does) is that whites win either way. Hillary's anti-civilizational governance and sycophantic media treatment will further galvanize Americans along racial lines, while Trump's governance will be met with such shrieking from the MSM and pushback from progressives and vibrants that it will as well. The dike has cracked, the water is spilling. If Hillary wins, whites will realize they will never have a majority again, so open revolt and the unshackling of PC will naturally follow. If Trump wins, the voilent left will make it plainly clear that they are at war with us. Either way we're heading toward a showdown.

Blogger LES June 05, 2016 9:39 AM  

I still think Biden/Warren will win the nomination.

Blogger TheLiberatorOfBados June 05, 2016 9:39 AM  

I'd imagine that what happened in San Jose this week is going to have lasting consequences for this election. Remember what just preceded this: Trump going on air and calling the media very sleazy and dishonest. Fast-forward to San Jose and the media tried their best to do what they do best....be sleazy and dishonest. Going up to people who got sucker-punched and hit with rocks and eggs and then asking them what THEY did to incite such violence sounds an AWFUL lot like the abusive husband asking his battered spouse why he made him hit her.

Needless to say thanks to social media the MSM's pathetic attempt to whitewash this failed spectacularly and has forced the MSM AND the DNC to try and walk this back. And everybody sees this. These "nice people" in the crowds assaulting people, black Muslims chasing down white guys and tackling them, Latinos with signs in California saying this is Mexico, yeah, don't think for a moment that isn't going to change some minds, like "Gosh, I still don't like Trump, but maybe he's onto something with this whole immigration thing...."

Keep in mind that there are plenty of blacks, and non-white people supporting Trump because they support this country and don't give a fuck about their race. However, Trump tapping into the 100 Million who don't typically vote is going to be the wild card in this election, one that none of the other candidates can pool from. If Hillary makes it all the way to the general debates, he's going to fucking lay into her si badly that she might wind up dropping dead from having all her shady dealings well and truly exposed to the world.

Blogger SciVo June 05, 2016 9:45 AM  

The state-by-state demographics are the sole reason for concern, but as others have pointed out, the conventional electoral math no longer applies once whites unite behind a political identity. Will that happen soon enough to elect Donald Trump?

Check out this nifty tool from 538. I don't normally expect race realism from them, but they have just enough devotion to the numbers that you can shift the vote balance and turnout for five categories (with whites broken out into college-educated and non).

It isn't perfect; there's an interesting chart floating around that did a good job of explaining Trump's wins based on a state's balance of nice and not-nice white ethnicities, and I'd like to see that in the mix. College-educated might just be an imperfect proxy for that, or a partially independent variable, I don't know.

But that's just quibbling, since tiny little shifts can make huge differences; the smarter cucks are clucking because the vibrant riots really can cause a Trump landslide. Check it out.

Blogger SciVo June 05, 2016 9:53 AM  

Cataline Sergius wrote:Although I think we can forget about the Hispanic vote. That one is gone.

That depends on whether the illegals are allowed to vote. (That it's even a possibility is a sign of how much danger our nation is in.)

Blogger SciVo June 05, 2016 10:11 AM  

YIH wrote:I'm waiting to see how the CA vote goes, it's possible she won't win the state - or like KY, just barely.

Yessss.

IIRC, that would leave Sanders with as many or more non-super delegates as the Lizard Queen.

No, he needs more like two-thirds of the votes on Tuesday in order to walk into Philadelphia with a majority of pledged delegates.

He's strongly implied he'll go for a convention fight, and something is going to have to done to buy him off - and I don't think VP is going to cut it.

Imagine if Ted Cruz hadn't been mathematically eliminated, if he were still technically viable due to a number of delegates being allowed to change their minds. It wouldn't have been over until they actually cast their votes at the convention, and that's the situation that the Democrats are in now.

And what's more, I don't picture Sanders gracefully conceding by moving for her to be the nominee by acclaim, like she did for Obama in 2008. If he were a team player, he would've joined the team long ago.

Blogger John Saunders June 05, 2016 10:14 AM  

@31 Nathan: Demographics is the problem. Trump Doesn't win among young people, minorities, women or the educated. That's not going to change. Plus, hillary gets a BiG bump when Bernie drops out.

Yes, demographics is a problem and the math of "The Coming Democratic Majority" thesis still applies. "Standard" Republican Electoral Math is a losing game that gets tighter and tighter margins with every cycle. That is precisely what Trump's play for the Rust Belt States is designed to address. It's a variant of the Sailer Strategy.

As to women, "Hillary the Enabler" is the tactic designed to address that. There's a whole new generation of women these days enamored of rape culture crusades on the campuses and who think every woman's accusation is true the moment it is said. Hillary the '80s and '90s trash talker of her hubby's sexual abuse victims doesn't sell with that kind of mindset.

Young people? They show up sometimes. Maybe.

Minorities? The Democrats are trying to buy off too many groups with urban patronage, when there isn't enough boodle to go around. One or more groups will get shafted in the near term and defect. And East Asians are starting to get the early-1900s "Jew Treatment" on the campuses - another demographic set up to defect.

Blogger pyrrhus June 05, 2016 10:15 AM  

As usually Cruzites like Nate continue to not get it....Hillary isn't viable even with many liberal women, while Trump is doing better with every minority group than Bush ever did...

Blogger pyrrhus June 05, 2016 10:16 AM  

I hear more and more talk of dumping Hillary for Biden-Pocohantas....

Blogger SciVo June 05, 2016 10:29 AM  

Nathan wrote:It's all about the Pivot. You know a candidate is the nominee when they begin to pivot to address the general electorate, rather than the extreme party partisans who come out in the primaries.

Generally, the candidate that has to pivot least, wins.

Trump has a problem insofar as he CANT pivot far enough to attract independents and moderate democrats without coming off like an unauthentic flip flopper.


Are you retarded? Trump is a centrist on the left-right axis, which is why he's gone back and forth between the parties, just like me. He's only extreme on the nationalist-globalist axis (again like me), and only Sanders could keep the nationalist Democrats, who are otherwise Trump's to lose.

One of my other regular hangouts has a lot of hardcore conservatives, and they're still having trouble accepting that a liberal Democrat is the Republican nominee. He doesn't have to change a single damn thing to utterly demolish Haggard Clinton or Handsy Biden; hell, on some things, he's to the left of those warmongering tools.

Blogger SciVo June 05, 2016 10:42 AM  

To elaborate on that point, the neo-cons are basically globalist leftists who were disgusted by the anti-war wing of the Democrats. They're only #NeverTrump because he's too nationalist; they'll be perfectly comfortable in today's Democrat party, and good riddance.

Anonymous NZT June 05, 2016 10:45 AM  

Between Hillary's humiliating loss to Obama in 2008, her countless disasters at State, and her current failure to knock Bernie out, anyone trying to make a case for her unstoppable hypercompetence is a complete idiot and should be ignored.

Anonymous andon June 05, 2016 10:50 AM  

we need some more terrorist attacks

Blogger SciVo June 05, 2016 11:00 AM  

pyrrhus wrote:I hear more and more talk of dumping Hillary for Biden-Pocohantas....

The last time we gamed that out here, "our communist friend" wasn't doing nearly so well. It was plausible when they had a sick felon and an also-ran, but now the Bernshevik is within striking distance.

Even if Soft Sanders doesn't quite have a majority of pledged delegates, if he's close enough for superdelegates to push him over the edge, it will be indefensible for them to parachute in Creepy Biden and Rabbit Warren. It would make '68 look like patty cake.

Blogger VFM #7634 June 05, 2016 11:05 AM  

I think Trump may surprise you with how well he does among Hispanics. From what I've seen there are quite a few of them stumping for Presidente Trump.

@16 Steve
His floor is at 20% with Hispanics. He won't be getting only 20%.

When I lived in Brownsville, I noticed that the only people "Mexican-Americans" hate worse that black people are illegal immigrants.

@25 justthinkin
The only counties Trump won in Texas in the Republican primary against Cruz were... a few on the Rio Grande.

And Cruz is gone now.

The only people I've heard voice any support for Clinton are blacks.

@40 Mr. B.A.D.
They'll vote for the devil himself if he is on the ballot with a D next to his name. Giving the 3/5(-of-a-brain) crowd the right to vote was just as much a mistake as for women, if not more so.

Blogger Shimshon June 05, 2016 11:25 AM  

MPAI but they also respond very well to effective rhetoric. These images of vibrants (and perhaps Berners, as they also have violent tendencies) attacking Trump supporters is effective support for Trump.

I also think Trump losing the women vote is a very risky assumption. As @17 Bob Loblaw hinted at, it's a huge win for Trump if he gets 45% of women, given that women tend to break massively Democratic, given the typical 60-40 skew. 49% would be a landslide.

Anonymous Napoleon 12pdr June 05, 2016 11:28 AM  

Nathan wrote:As an aside, if Trump wins he will be the first presidential winner to lose his home state since, well, ever as far as I can tell. The bottom line here is those who win the presidential election don't lose their home state. Trump is going to lose his home state.

It's true that nobody wins without carrying their home state...but there's always a first time. But I think Trump will win New York. He'll run about even in NYC...and carry upstate by a country mile.

Anonymous VFM #6306 June 05, 2016 11:37 AM  

People forget that hispanics see Hillary as a gringa bitch who only wants to use la raza cosmica to ensure that rich white women stay on friendly terms with their maids. They aint voting for Trump...but they won't mind if he ushers in a national San Jose effect, either.

Lincoln was pretty damn happy about Ft. Sumpter, too. Funny that.

Anonymous Napoleon 12pdr June 05, 2016 11:37 AM  

FWIW, my read on the situation is that we're in the middle of a political polarity shift.

For years, the GOP was the party of the upper middle class, social conservatives, and big business. The Dems were the party of blue-collar workers and the welfare class.

This has changed. Big business discovered the attractions of crony capitalism - which the Dems had on offer. On the other hand, the GOP wasn't realizing that to pander to big business and the welfare class, the Dems had abandoned the blue collar workers.

Trump is making a play for those voters. If he succeeds, he'll blow the floor out from under the Democrats. If the GOP adopts the strategy, they will keep winning. Thee's a natural alliance between ALL members of the middle class against the welfare class and the truly rich.

Blogger SciVo June 05, 2016 11:47 AM  

TheLiberatorOfBados wrote:Remember what just preceded this: Trump going on air and calling the media very sleazy and dishonest. Fast-forward to San Jose and the media tried their best to do what they do best....be sleazy and dishonest.

Trump has a talent for what Scott Adams calls sleeper persuasion with a trigger. If it hadn't been San Jose, it would've been something else.

And everybody sees this. These "nice people" in the crowds assaulting people, black Muslims chasing down white guys and tackling them, Latinos with signs in California saying this is Mexico, yeah, don't think for a moment that isn't going to change some minds, like "Gosh, I still don't like Trump, but maybe he's onto something with this whole immigration thing...."

Their reaction proves the point because the point is true.

Rationalists: "We need to get control of our borders because some aliens are hostile and dangerous."

Aliens: "No we're not. FUCK YOU!" [punch]

SWPLs: [facepalm]

Blogger SciVo June 05, 2016 11:53 AM  

Napoleon 12pdr wrote:Thee's a natural alliance between ALL members of the middle class against the welfare class and the truly rich.

That's an example of your enemy choosing you, not the other way around. There's a natural alliance between the top and bottom; middle-class solidarity is reactionary in the same way as white solidarity.

Anonymous GreyS June 05, 2016 12:07 PM  

The game hasn't changed one bit. The poor guy doesn't get it. He was overmatched the minute he secured the nomination.

I can't see how anyone could have any confidence whatsoever in looking at this in a The Political Establishment Is Right Again kind of way. Any group of experts who thought and planned for another Bush v Clinon election is either incredibly stupid or incredibly out of touch.

You'd have to engage in serious wishful thinking to not let yourself see that Hillary is one of the worst candidates in years or that conventional political wisdom isn't working against what is Trump.

Anonymous Mr. Rational June 05, 2016 12:14 PM  

@48 This blog has a mechanism for quoting comments (click on the comment number).  Please use it, for clarity's sake.

Blogger Robert What? June 05, 2016 12:25 PM  

Personally I will vote for Trump. But my hypothesis is that Hillary has been told that she will be the next President: it was already decided at Davos. That is why she doesn't care what she says or what she does. She knows it is in the bag. With a little help from Diebold.

Anonymous BGKB June 05, 2016 12:37 PM  

The only demographic that seems to positively want Hillary is dried-up old white feminist hags who are killing time before they die alone

Faggots are also for HillDog because the only thing Bern in Hell doesn't want to give out free is Truvada Prep, a drug that is hard on the kidneys/liver used to replace wearing condoms. Its over $1500 per month per person picked up either by taxpayers or other people on your insurance plan. A decade from now there will be tons of gays with liver/kidney problems.

if that happens, the Lizard Queen is as someone else put it, shlonged.

As long as Bernie doesn't get on any small planes with 50 women raped by Bill C, or sleep with a pillow over his head.

As an aside, if Trump wins he will be the first presidential winner to lose his home state since

Don't rule out Trump winning NY. There have been several articles out by leftists fretting that their hired help favors TRUMP.

Trump will harp on Benghazi and emails. Hillary has become pretty adept at pivoting from those debacles

By not saying anything and letting the friendly press handle it.

I hear more and more talk of dumping Hillary for Biden-Pocohantas....

The Indian- Joe ticket.

Anonymous Toastrider June 05, 2016 12:39 PM  

Man, I doubt ANYONE knows how things are really gonna shake out this November. Things have gotten fucking weird.

Trump definitely does not fit the normal patterns, and it's a mistake to assume that you can slot him into them. I admit to a great deal of cruel glee, watching the GOPe fumble around as it realizes that they completely screwed the pooch on handling the Trump Train.

As I've commented before, Scott Walker warned them they needed to clear some of the extraneous candidates out or risk Trump rolling them over. They didn't listen, etc. I would've liked Walker as a candidate, but I suspect his low numbers, coupled with what appeared to be a desire to put a stake through the heart of the Wisconsin public sector union brigade, drove him to withdraw. Fair enough; breaking the union power in Wisconsin's a good thing.

It's funny someone brought up JFK Jr. earlier, as he's one of the few people I actively harbor a conspiracy theory about. To wit: someone had him killed because he was too good at bringing people together (remember, this was a liberal whose was best buds with Ann Coulter. Lolwut). He definitely, from what I've read, was more inclined towards the line of polite disagreement rather than 'vibrant behavior' as Vox might put it.

But yeah. To misquote Churchill, if Hillary Clinton invaded Hell I would make at least a favorable mention to the devil. She lacks her husband's natural charisma, she lacks President 4Putt's 'black appeal', and she's carrying an inordinate amount of personal and political baggage. I admit I'm still stunned the DNC even let her in the door; she must know where a LOT of bodies are buried, figuratively and literally.

Which then begs the question: if the DNC 'schlongs' her, what will the fallout be?

Buy popcorn futures, ladies and gentlemen.

Anonymous A.B. Prosper June 05, 2016 12:50 PM  

Trump might lose. However the same people saying that Trump can't possibly win were saying that about the primaries way back early in the campaign.


I remind you that all of the other candidates, most of them well funded to resign well before the convention and that the two most establishment guys went fast.

Anonymous BGKB June 05, 2016 12:56 PM  

That depends on whether the illegals are allowed to vote. (That

Black KY sow judge says yes. http://www.worldnewspolitics.com/2016/05/21/judge-issues-ruling-steal-election-trump-alert-friends/

I also think Trump losing the women vote is a very risky assumption

TRUMP can do a Hands Across America video with all the women raped by Bill C., the woman that was the 12yo girl HillDOG laughed about getting her rapist off has come forward with a video also.

Anonymous Trimegistus June 05, 2016 12:56 PM  

Looking at that 538 vote gizmo, and playing with it a little, something really jumped out at me: it all comes down to blue-collar whites. You can tinker with the college-educated white vote, the black vote, the hispanic vote, and it does virtually nothing. A tiny shift in the blue-collar white vote dramatically transforms the map.

Blogger James Dixon June 05, 2016 1:01 PM  

> The election isn't even close.

It's not? http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Blogger praetorian June 05, 2016 1:12 PM  

Nathan, did you predict trump was going to win the GOP nomination?

Blogger bob k. mando June 05, 2016 1:35 PM  

several years ago, Obama visited Elkhart Indiana in order to "feel the pain" of the city with the highest unemployment in the nation.

this last week, Obama visited Elkhart to tout the success of his "recovery".

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/watch-live-president-obamas-town-hall-in-elkhart-indiana/

Friday, a 110 year old manufacturing facility announced that they were offshoring their production.

http://www.elkharttruth.com/discussions/local-dialogue/editorials/2016/06/05/Did-CTS-even-trying-to-keep-jobs-in-Elkhart.html


Thanks, Obama!

Blogger James Dixon June 05, 2016 1:50 PM  

> Generally, the candidate that has to pivot least, wins.

Neither of these candidates is going to pivot. Neither feels the need. What you see is what you get.

> Trump has a problem insofar as he CANT pivot far enough to attract independents and moderate democrats

Why did he early on do better in open primaries than in closed ones? People have been crossing party lines to vote for him. He has the working class democrat voter sewn up.

> Hillary has become pretty adept at pivoting from those debacles.

The hell she has. She hasn't pivoted at all.

> Trump has yet to demonstrate he can get out from under what he said during the primaries.

What he said during the primaries is what is attracting the voters. He doesn't need to "get out from under what he said". He needs to amplify it. Did Reagan "get out from underneath" what he said during the primaries? Oh, that's right, you're too young to know about that aren't you?

> It's not even close.

Here, Nathan, this is your song.

> She knows it is in the bag. With a little help from Diebold.

The only point Nathan might have is that the widespread electoral fraud routinely perpetuated by the democrats may be enough to swing an otherwise close election. You may notice he hasn't even mentioned that. One wonders why.

> Man, I doubt ANYONE knows how things are really gonna shake out this November. Things have gotten fucking weird.

Agreed. The polls are all over the place.

> I admit to a great deal of cruel glee, watching the GOPe fumble around as it realizes that they completely screwed the pooch on handling the Trump Train.

I honestly thought they could ram Jeb through. They did so with Romney, after all. It was a pleasure to watch Trump handing their heads to them.

> (remember, this was a liberal whose was best buds with Ann Coulter. Lolwut).

JFK was "best friends" with a lot of women. Probably even more so than Trump. Whether that applies to Ann I'm not going to speculate.

> ...she must know where a LOT of bodies are buried, figuratively and literally.

Are you kidding? She was responsible for having a good chuck of them put there.

> ...it all comes down to blue-collar whites...

Just as it did with Reagan. http://electoralmap.net/PastElections/past_elections.php?year=1980 and http://electoralmap.net/PastElections/past_elections.php?year=1984


Anonymous Nathan June 05, 2016 2:19 PM  

"ut I think Trump will win New York. He'll run about even in NYC...and carry upstate"

Oh my! I'd offer 50-1 odds on that.

Anonymous Nathan June 05, 2016 2:29 PM  

"Nathan, did you predict trump was going to win the GOP nomination?"

No. But the primaries hold no resemblance to the General and the Electoral College. Any republican loses CA, NY, IL, WA, NJ and most of New England. This will be just like the last three election with fights over the typical battle ground states except Clinton wins VA and NV in a walk. Plus, I don't think there are enough poor and lower middle class white men to overcome Trumps huge disadvantage with women, minorities, youth and the educated.

Anonymous jOHN MOSBY June 05, 2016 2:40 PM  

How much does Soros pay a post now, ((( Nathan ))) ?

Blogger James Dixon June 05, 2016 2:40 PM  

> Oh my! I'd offer 50-1 odds on that.

OK. You're on. I'll put up $1.

Blogger Sean Carnegie June 05, 2016 2:41 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Sean Carnegie June 05, 2016 2:42 PM  

>Oh my! I'd offer 50-1 odds on that.

I've got $50 somewhere to take you up on this.

Anonymous Man of the Atom June 05, 2016 3:27 PM  

Nathan would be a perfect fit as a GOPe member from 1976-1980. "Yes, we can't!"

Typical analysis based on previous history; generic 2nd Gen Warfare type -- standard linear thinker.

Anonymous Daniel H June 05, 2016 3:56 PM  

Republicans have always beens stupid. There was ample opportunity in the 80s and 90s when they still had effective power in states such as Virignia, Jersey, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Florida and others to enact legislation to award electoral delegates proportional to the popular vote. But they were either asleep at the wheel or believed that hogwash of Reagan and Bush that they were at the beginning of a new dawn of endless conservative majorities. Hardly any of them, at the time, thought through the consequences of our immigration policy. Furthermore, the vast majority of white people don't give a damn about the advocacy and philosophy of those annoying little magazines, National Review and Weekly Standard. Populist white tribalists like Trump would have an easy go of it if they could craft and hammer in a message that applies universally to the American people. Getting 45% of the electoral votes of California, New York, New Jersey, Illinois while overwhelmingly taking the south and the midwest would have insured a permanent right wing/populist control of the executive. By its very nature a populist message appeals universally, across the entire demographic, gaining a sustainable national majority. Furthermore, concentrating on a national message that appeals to the white demographic allows candidate to ignore those troublesome minorities - who will not be named - who always mange to convince the major candidates that they are the significant "Swing Vote" who will make the difference between loss and victory.

Majorities will never be reached for a white populist message in California, New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey, etc, thereby rendering the 45% who support the message inert, useless. Despite his advantages, this is an uphill very difficult battle for Trump when it should have been an easy win if the electoral college had been reformed.

Democratic controlled legislatures now will never approve of proportional representation in the electoral college. Why should they? They have a lock on it now and gain 100% of the votes. But there are some states, like California, where this can be changed by referendum. California and other states where the matter can be decided by referendum should be targeted for proportional representation. This should be a strategy going forward.

Blogger RobertT June 05, 2016 3:58 PM  

"...the conventional electoral math no longer applies."

The establishment lost this election several cycles ago when they quit considering everyday Americans. All it took to formally put them in the losers column was a candidate who finally voiced their concerns. That's why they call him Teflon Don. All attacks, regardless of where they come from, even attacks from those used-to-be's Romney & Kristol, (throw Ryan in there if you want), are pissing down their own leg.

Blogger Eric June 05, 2016 4:18 PM  

Nathan,
arguably Mittens home state was Mass. How'd that work out. Also, didn't Al Gore lose Tennessee?

You're not impressing anyone with your pontificating?

Anonymous Nathan June 05, 2016 4:41 PM  

Eric...mittens and Gore both lost the electoral vote. Both lost their home state. So...like I was saying...

Blogger Jed Ekert June 05, 2016 4:41 PM  

There is no way in hell that Clinton wins AZ.

Anonymous FP June 05, 2016 4:44 PM  

10 minutes of anti-Trump protestors:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7yyr-6_l4c

Anonymous dr kill June 05, 2016 4:52 PM  

'She is an exceptionally bad candidate who has never beaten anyone who didn't take a fall'. Does that mean Hillary is the Sonny Liston of the Democrat party? Hahhaha

Anonymous Wanderer June 05, 2016 5:14 PM  

Who could have predicted that an as yet unpublished book would hit #1 on Amazon's best sellers list?

Certainly not Shrillery.

Did Donald Trump bankroll it?

Anonymous Wanderer June 05, 2016 5:17 PM  

Vox, do you want to offer to keep track of those who want to accept Nathan's 50-1 odds?

Blogger VFM #7191 June 05, 2016 5:49 PM  

Nathan wrote:As an aside, if Trump wins he will be the first presidential winner to lose his home state since, well, ever as far as I can tell. The bottom line here is those who win the presidential election don't lose their home state. Trump is going to lose his home state.

There's a first time for everything

Anonymous Broken Arrow June 05, 2016 6:28 PM  

If the white vote stays the same in percentage from the polls now until election day Hillary wins in an electoral college landslide. The white vote has to swing to Trump by a minimum of 4% more than Romney for him to win.

Blogger VD June 05, 2016 6:39 PM  

Vox, do you want to offer to keep track of those who want to accept Nathan's 50-1 odds?

Not even a little bit. Do you think I am insufficiently busy or something?

Anonymous Napoleon 12pdr June 05, 2016 6:47 PM  

Broken Arrow wrote:If the white vote stays the same in percentage from the polls now until election day Hillary wins in an electoral college landslide. The white vote has to swing to Trump by a minimum of 4% more than Romney for him to win.
Percentages don't matter. Turnout matters. If the primaries are any indication, Trump will enjoy massive turnout.

Blogger bob k. mando June 05, 2016 8:13 PM  

31. Nathan June 05, 2016 8:51 AM
As an aside, if Trump wins he will be the first presidential winner to lose his home state since, well, ever as far as I can tell.



Nathan, dumber than a webcomic.


Polk was born in NC, residing in, representing and elected from TN, lost both states 1844.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1844

Blogger James Dixon June 05, 2016 9:11 PM  

> Vox, do you want to offer to keep track of those who want to accept Nathan's 50-1 odds?

Do you really think Nathan has any intention of honoring his word? Or even still being here once he stops being paid?

Anonymous Instasetting June 05, 2016 9:52 PM  

If Nathan wants to put a grand in an escrow account, I can put up a Jackson to thump him.

Blogger G-S. June 05, 2016 10:01 PM  

Trump needs to publicly lay out his plan to win in November, then methodically and consistently follow that plan to complete execution.

When was the last time Trump was able to stay on message longer than 1 hour?

Anonymous mature-Craig June 05, 2016 10:19 PM  

re 98: ....its getting a little bumpy. I think he is gonna get through it though,..He is getting more experienced and that's a good thing

Blogger James Dixon June 05, 2016 10:22 PM  

It looks like he'll have one less problem to deal with than we thought: http://townhall.com/tipsheet/christinerousselle/2016/06/05/david-french-nope-im-not-running-for-president-n2173986

Kristol must be losing it right about now.

Anonymous mature-Craig June 05, 2016 10:37 PM  

he should try to resist the temptation to go ad hominem on people as much he does. (although there really are a lot of mud slingers and smear merchants out there that probably deserve it) Try to Stick to the subject matter more. It seems he does acknowledge valid criticizms of himself and makes corrections

Anonymous Whee June 05, 2016 10:41 PM  

Nathan is wrong about the demographics anyway. Trump wins with the following:

63% of white vote,
10% of black vote (at 2004 turnout levels since 'bama isn't running),
24% of Latino vote and
30% of "other" vote.

Gaining 3% of whites at the same turnout levels Romney got means he can do worse with Latinos and "other" and get a bit below average with blacks for non-Obama Republicans and *still win*.

This is doable. Not easy, but doable. Hillary has to get the nonwhites to turn out at Obama levels in the general when they couldn't be arsed during primary season, which actually matters with Dems, since they usually rely on the high primary turnout to persuade people to come out in the general.

The demographics are not great, but it's nowhere near as fatal as people make out. It's just not. Whites have someone to vote FOR and as 2012 showed, that is always better than someone to vote AGAINST. In the latter case people just stay home.

Blogger tweell June 05, 2016 11:36 PM  

Nathan, I've got a $20 that says Trump will win NY.

Blogger tweell June 05, 2016 11:37 PM  

Nathan, I've got a $20 that says Trump will win NY.

Anonymous Nathan June 05, 2016 11:43 PM  

One thing Trump does have going for him in this election cycle is that he won't have to spend nearly as much time campaigning for down ticket Republicans since a whole lot want nothing to do with him.

Oh...and he's gonna do exactly what Obama did and for the same reason: pick a strong foreign relations/military hand for VP since he has no experience and it shows.

Anonymous Nathan June 06, 2016 12:02 AM  

"Nathan, I've got a $20 that says Trump will win NY."

Tweel, if I could look you in the eye and shake your hand, I'd call your bluff and ask you to put up $1,000 on this bet. In 2008 and 2012 Obama got 63% of the vote. NY isn't even on the table for Trump or any Republican. I don't think Bloomberg could beat Clinton running as a member of the GOP. Hell, in 1984, the great REagon landslide year, only 3 states gave Mondale larger percentages than NY.

Lord knows, I've been wrong before, but I'd love to hear your scenario by which Trump wins NY in 2016.

Blogger James Dixon June 06, 2016 6:17 AM  

> Tweel, if I could look you in the eye and shake your hand, I'd call your bluff and ask you to put up $1,000 on this bet.

See what I mean? He makes an offer, and as soon as someone takes him up on it, he either ignores it or says they're bluffing.

> ...ut I'd love to hear your scenario by which Trump wins NY in 2016.

More people vote for him than vote for Hillary. I thought you were the one who understood electoral math.

Another terrorist attack somewhere in NY would probably be enough to swing the state.

Anonymous Nathan June 06, 2016 9:57 AM  

"Another terrorist attack somewhere in NY would probably be enough to swing the state."

I think you have this just about right. It would take a disaster for NY to be put in the Trump column.

Blogger dh June 06, 2016 10:46 AM  

> Another terrorist attack somewhere in NY would probably be enough to swing the state.

Probably not enough of a bump.

Blogger dh June 06, 2016 10:49 AM  

> Turnout is critical. In recent decades, about 60% of eligible voters show up. If Trump gets whites excited -- or just wanting to be in on the fun -- enough to turn out at a 70% rate, he wins in a walk, because Hillary's sure not going to inspire a big turnout. That's without counting whatever appeal he might have to independents.

It's true that if Mr. Trump turns out non-college educated white voters at the same rate Pres. Obama turns out black voters in 2008 and 2012, he'll take it in a walk.

But that's never happened before.

Anonymous Wesson June 06, 2016 3:26 PM  

re: "Hardly any of them, at the time, thought through the consequences of our immigration policy."

Daniel,

They did, but they were evil. Plenty of us were screaming about how suicidal it was for the school systems, infrastructure, and GOP to go with massive immigration. They just thought they could put a pretty Hispanic face on the usual dirtbag policies and pull off the usual magic with PR. They also didn't calculate that a lot of the immigrants would not be like Cubans or old Hispanic families in the Southwest.

There was also an elitist class element to things. Lots of Republicans with money didn't care if wages got driven down or unions busted.

In a sense, though, the GOP didn't think through anything. What coalition were they imagining would get them to 51%?

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