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Wednesday, July 27, 2016

About those state polls

As I demonstrated yesterday, it's too soon to talk about the state polls. But it's NOT too early to talk about the trends in state polls. Here are the two battleground states in which polls have been released this week:

NV: Trump vs. Clinton KTNV Trump +5
OH: Trump vs. Clinton PPP (D) TIE (Trump +3 all four candidates)

Now, there aren't enough previous Nevada polls for there to be a trend. But given that the earliest Ohio polls were as high as +7 for Hillary, it is apparent that there is a trend towards Trump, as that is 10 points of Trumpward movement. I will review the other battleground states as they come in, but for reference, their early high water marks are as follows:

PA: Clinton +15
VA: Clinton +17
FL: Trump +8, Clinton +13 (Florida was Trump, then heavy Clinton, nothing new since 7/11)
NC: Trump +6, Clinton +10 (same as Florida)
CO: Clinton +13

So, if my prediction of a Trumpslide is correct, we should see significant movement Trumpward in all five states. Virginia is particularly important; if Clinton can't maintain a strong lead there despite selecting Virginia senator Tim Kaine, she is even more vulnerable than anyone imagines.

Labels:

65 Comments:

Blogger Kyle Searle July 27, 2016 2:14 PM  

The important question here is: what's going to happen with all those 3rd/4th party votes? It is like the Simpson's episode where you have your choice of space alien? Or is there going to be some cataclysmic shift in the polling/voting as people move back to the two majority parties? I'd say campaigning will have a bigger impact on this election than most. 2008 was also a case where campaigning was a major factor, but before that you practically have to go back to Reagan.

Blogger Dave July 27, 2016 2:19 PM  

Hill is having trouble just filling the arena at the DNC. They'll have to start busing in bodies.

Blogger Alexander July 27, 2016 2:28 PM  

They'll have to start busing in bodies.

Or having the bodies vote four or five times, instead of the usual twice.

Blogger Teri July 27, 2016 2:35 PM  

The other interesting question will be whether the Bernie supporters vote to end Hillary's political career. All they have to do is not vote for her. If they don't have incentive now, they never will.

Blogger Teri July 27, 2016 2:35 PM  

The other interesting question will be whether the Bernie supporters vote to end Hillary's political career. All they have to do is not vote for her. If they don't have incentive now, they never will.

Blogger SS July 27, 2016 2:38 PM  

Dave wrote:Hill is having trouble just filling the arena at the DNC. They'll have to start busing in bodies.

Someone posted a screenshot of a craigslist advertisement for seat fillers for $50 a night just a little while ago

Blogger Dave July 27, 2016 2:52 PM  

craigslist advertisement for seat fillers

Probably fake, the Dems will just round up the usual stiffs.

Anonymous Bob Izza July 27, 2016 3:18 PM  

VD,

Question & suggestion: Would taking the first derivative of the sum of state polls change your previous analysis?

This might also make a good trend indicator.

ex.

Poll 1 - wk 1
Hillary +4

Poll 1 - wk 2
Hillary +2

Poll 2 - wk1
Trump +/-

Poll 2 - wk2
Trump +2

The change in both polls would be +2 for Trump.

OpenID b1bae96e-6447-11e3-b6bb-000f20980440 July 27, 2016 3:22 PM  

The Tim Kaine pick to me signifies she plans to abandon Ohio sometime in October, and maybe even September and that she is preparing to win without the rust belt generally since neither her nor the DNC platform has made any attempt to court whites in the region. They also don't appear to be doing much to drive black turnout other than honoring thug moms. Ordinarily that might be enough of a bone, but she is going to make a hard push for the Hispanic vote, to the point where I wouldn't be surprised to hear her announce straight amnesty. That won't ingratiate her to the current welfare beneficiaries.

Blogger tz July 27, 2016 3:23 PM  

The problem with the earlier state polls is most would have to be taken before the nominee locked things up.

Now it should start to get interesting particularly with Chelsea comparing with Ivanka, and Hillary giving a nice short speech (What is the halflife of the hillbot reboot?) - maybe with Bernie supporters shouting "Crooked Hillary". She might not get a bounce but a burial.

Even better Trump is not taking the week off but nailing her mercilessly.

Romney relied on the Fox proxies. Trump is his own media force.

Then we watch as we have more terrorist attacks (and calls for gun grabs), more companies closing factories here, more immigrant and refugee crime.

It's bad when your apogee in the polls is before your convention.

Hillary did to Sanders what Romney did to Paul.

I'm not sure if it is that they aren't realizing the rules have changed, or, like Ted Cruz whose advisers told him not to self-immolate, they just won't listen.

Blogger Franz Lionheart July 27, 2016 3:33 PM  

OT

What's today's Islam atrocity?

Anonymous BGKB July 27, 2016 3:34 PM  

I posted yesterday that PA former governor Rendell admitted http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/dnc/20160727_Rendell__PA_in_play_for_Trump.html

Someone posted a screenshot of a craigslist advertisement for seat fillers for $50 a night just a little while ago

To think Tim Geithner's brother paid $5000+ for one.

point where I wouldn't be surprised to hear her announce straight amnesty

HilLIARy's Cane said he would pass it in the first 100 days.

Anonymous BGKB July 27, 2016 3:37 PM  

OT What's today's Islam atrocity?

http://pamelageller.com/2016/07/washington-muslim-migrant-rapist-of-grade-school-girl-jumps-bail-gets-on-plane-to-dubai.html/

OT:Well doesn't this put TRUMPs star in perspective http://pamelageller.com/2016/07/video-democrats-burn-israeli-flags-at-dncinphl.html/

Blogger Teri July 27, 2016 3:37 PM  

There is some good stuff in this interview with J.D. Vance:

https://theartsmechanical.wordpress.com/2016/07/26/when-you-are-at-the-bottom-you-want-volatility/

Blogger swiftfoxmark2 July 27, 2016 3:42 PM  

Honestly, in Virginia I doubt many people know about Tim Kaine. He rode in on the anti-Bush sentiment and the Republican party has been terrible at picking challengers.

A good reminder is that Terry McAuliffe is the governor here and he is as big a Clinton crony as they come. He even made it legal for convicted felons to vote without the state legislature approval but that was overturned in court recently.

Anonymous Spartacus xxxxx July 27, 2016 3:44 PM  

Trumpward. That's a wonderful word.

Blogger James Higham July 27, 2016 3:56 PM  

There's a tweeter called States Polls and he has the Donald close or winning 43 at this point. HRC must at least be worried, particularly with that emptying convention hall.

Blogger Dave July 27, 2016 3:57 PM  

To think Tim Geithner's brother paid $5000+ for one.

Heh not that kind of seat filler

Anonymous BGKB July 27, 2016 4:05 PM  

There is some good stuff in this interview with J.D. Vance:

He still doesn't get that making leftists chimp out is part of the plan for normies to (((notice)))

" A lot of people think Trump is just the first to appeal to the racism and xenophobia that were already there, but I think he’s making the problem worse.

The other big problem I have with Trump is that he has dragged down our entire political conversation. It’s not just that he inflames the tribalism of the Right; it’s that he encourages the worst impulses of the Left. In the past few weeks, I’ve heard from so many of my elite friends some version of, “Trump is the racist leader all of these racist white people deserve.”

Blogger Alexander July 27, 2016 4:12 PM  

A month from now, the press is going to be consoling democrats that Hillary's "firewall" of CA, DC, MD, MA, and MN means she's already 1/3 of the way to the candidacy before we even start looking at toss-ups!

Blogger James Dixon July 27, 2016 4:16 PM  

You left NY off your list, Alexander. Was that an accident or do you really think
Trump has a chance there? I don't think he has a chance unless Hillary is stupid enough not to campaign there.

Blogger Tom Kratman July 27, 2016 4:25 PM  

Somewhat off topic:

Talked to Toni, just today. Though it is not, IMNSHO, a great book, A State of Disobedience is a prescient one, and great, if nothing else, for sending the left apoplectic. So we're just going to give it away, for free, to screw that rancid twat Hillary while the screwing is good.

Anonymous Sam the Man July 27, 2016 4:25 PM  

If the Democratic convention continues to be the train wreck it has been so far, while it might unite the 42 % of the population that would vote for a democrat if they were a dead corpse, to the rest of America it is increasingly looking like a freak show.

Last night while checking it was apparent 3/4 of convention folks on the floor were overweight middle age women of lower than average beauty. How inspiring.

Hillary could not even show here face on the stage, I suppose she might have fallen over or might have had a seizure. The wife made the observation that compared to the republican convention it appears to be a cult of personality the way the fat chicks went wild with her face.

While there was no mention of the terrorism issues that western civilization is facing, they seem to like walls at the democratic convention, while condemning Trump for advocating the same at our borders. what?

Talking about the need for change when they have held the reins of power for 7.5 years. Such hypocrisy.

Pretty much admitting the DNC process was fixed...and then rewarding DWS with a position on Hillarie's campaign. Oh Vey, not one consequence to anyone in the elite of the party, while the peasants are told to suck it up.

I am too old to know how this will play out, but the American people have a real choice this time, the candidates could not be less alike. For the first time in 20 plus years American can vote on immigration and economic nationalism with a real choice between the two sides. if there is any virtue left in this nation it should be a trumpslide.

G-D help us if the republicans lose, the country will be headed to a low level 4G war or collapse.

Blogger Alexander July 27, 2016 4:29 PM  

@21

I think when the dust settles on November 9th, New York will be blue.

But I wouldn't bet the farm on it. Not this year.

And on the sliding scale, I'd say that New York could go red while DC, MD, MN stay blue; the reverse is not possible.

Blogger Clint July 27, 2016 4:36 PM  

Thanks for offering your book for free, Tom. I have enjoyed all of yours that I have read. I have not yet read this one, so will get on it.

Blogger James Dixon July 27, 2016 4:38 PM  

> A State of Disobedience is a prescient one, and great, if nothing else, for sending the left apoplectic. So we're just going to give it away, for free, to screw that rancid twat Hillary while the screwing is good.

Now that's a platform I can get behind. :)

> while it might unite the 42 % of the population that would vote for a democrat if they were a dead corpse,

The percentage is nowhere near that high. Probably in the 30-35%, tops. The problem is the walking dead and multiple personality voters inflates their numbers.

> G-D help us if the republicans lose, the country will be headed to a low level 4G war or collapse.

More likely both.

Alexander, thanks for the response.

Anonymous Dave Gerrold's 6184th Cabana Boy July 27, 2016 4:42 PM  

In terms of Kaine delivering VA into the fold, several VA folks that I deal with mentioned that he was despised by a lot of folks in VA.

Of course, the plural of Anecdote is not Data, but interesting nonetheless.

Blogger B.J. July 27, 2016 4:47 PM  

What about debates? I'm fairly certain we're going to see an unprecedented series of demands in regards to what Hillary will allow or agree to. Things like access to questions beforehand, access to prepared material during questioning, 5-minute delay to the live broadcast with authority to cut the feed at any time, and unheard-of limits on Trump's ability to argue or address her directly. Trump will be pressured to accept these limits or the debates will be cancelled and blamed on him. He will be called 'cowardly,' 'sexist,' 'not man enough to debate a woman,' etc.

The idea will be to limit her need to think on her feet and prevent as much interaction between the two as possible. The dems were praying and hoping for a chivalrous weasel like Jeb or Bernie to meekly avoid tarnishing m'lady's honor. Not so much luck with Trump. He will destroy her on stage and the risk of a presidential nominee having a shrieking meltdown or spastic brain-damage seizure on live TV is too much to bear.

Anonymous rubberducky July 27, 2016 4:50 PM  

Virginian here. Tim Kaine isn't going to help Hillary very much.

She's lost control of the warren, who have decided contrary to all evidence that Tim Kaine is a moderate, and not such a sexy morsel of the new hotness such as Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren.

That's what the Northern Virginia rabbits have told themselves. It's not easily dislodged, because of the sexy, which Kaine totally lacks. You could try logic and point to voting records, but then again there's the sexy.

So a lot of the magic mojo has gone. Just not enough sexy.

Anonymous cheddarman July 27, 2016 4:51 PM  

This election is beautiful on so many levels.

- Like him or not, Trump is showing the Republican leadership and most of the punditry to be the cucks that they are. Romney, McCain, Dole, Bush Senior and others could have won by using similar or the same tactics Trump is using to win.

- Trump is showing men with eyes to see that they don't have to be obedient to the minority/leftist/female imperatives and apologize for being white men

Blogger Tom Kratman July 27, 2016 4:52 PM  

And, ya know, if I'm not quite ready to shout, "Viva Trump! Viva la junta! Viva! Viva! Viva!" I've long ere now wanted to dance with the munchkins singing "the wicked old witch at last is dead."

Blogger Dave July 27, 2016 4:53 PM  

Tom K. will it be free on Amazon?

Blogger Tom Kratman July 27, 2016 4:57 PM  

Yes.

Anonymous SciVo July 27, 2016 5:01 PM  

B.J. wrote:What about debates? I'm fairly certain we're going to see an unprecedented series of demands in regards to what Hillary will allow or agree to.

If Trump doesn't like her demands, he can arrange a debate with Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, and then Hillary can show up or not.

Blogger Tom Kratman July 27, 2016 5:03 PM  

And, amusingly enough, though Jim Baen slapped a date on it of 2063, it was always 2016 in my mind and 2016 by internal textev. Yes, really.

Blogger Tom Kratman July 27, 2016 5:16 PM  

And monday's column is going to be "Why Trump and not Johnson (except in states that are absolutely safe for either Trump or Hillary)".

Anonymous BGKB July 27, 2016 5:25 PM  

DNC parenting advice for activists:
Minnesota Sen. Al Franken (D) had some chilling advice for parents at the 2016 DNC: “Now, many of you have jobs, many of you have families. Ignore them.” He went on to say “Let me tell you something, kids love it when their parents are not home. They love it. And let me tell you something else, an eight-year-old kid knows how to use a microwave oven. And let me tell you something else, an eight-year-old kid can teach a four-year-old kid to use a microwave oven, it’s scientific fact. Don’t worry about your kids, they will be fine. You have work to do.”
http://www.thedailysheeple.com/dems-advice-to-get-hillary-elected-ignore-your-job-and-your-children_072016

Blogger James Dixon July 27, 2016 5:37 PM  

I'm pretty sure that's considered child abuse in most liberal cities, BGKB. Not that it will be enforced.

Anonymous BGKB July 27, 2016 5:39 PM  

I'm pretty sure that's considered child abuse in most liberal cities, BGKB. Not that it will be enforced

I am pretty sure child abuse is what (((Al Franken))) wants the parents away from home for.

Blogger haus frau July 27, 2016 5:41 PM  

Well this is pure comedy gold. Trump suggests that Russia should find Hillary's lost email and Hillary's camp claims that Trump "was endangering national security and even conspiring with a US foe." So how is his banter about her incompetence more dangerous than her incompetence in letting those emails fall into foreign hands in the first place? Who is running her campaign and thought this response was a good idea?
http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/27/politics/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-hack-hillary-clinton/

Blogger Derek Kite July 27, 2016 6:00 PM  

If Hillary has to spend money in new York and California she will need 2 billion to pull close.

Blogger VD July 27, 2016 7:14 PM  

A State of Disobedience is a prescient one, and great, if nothing else, for sending the left apoplectic. So we're just going to give it away, for free, to screw that rancid twat Hillary while the screwing is good.

Sounds like next week's Book of the Week.

Anonymous Donald J Trump July 27, 2016 7:17 PM  

I hear a lot of people telling me, "release your taxes, release your taxes.."

Excuse me, why would I give ammo to my enemies. They don't like me, well everybody really likes me, I'm YUUUGE with a lot of people. But seriously, why would I want to give my secrets away to people who don't want to vote for me.

Besides, I'm unpredictable. You know its all true, and I say it all the time. "Un-pre-dictable". I don't do tradition.

Anyways, I say Hillary needs to release all her deleted emails. 30,000. Yes Folks, 30,000 that she won't let anyone see. Well, I bet the Russians saw them. That Putin, Ill tell you, his people love him, just like the American People love me.

Nobody likes crooked Hillary. No-Body. Not Even Bill. Thats why I'm up in the polls. Up in the polls! Even CNN, they're so biased, so so biased, says I'm 5 points ahead. 5 points folks! Thats a very very large lead.

Blogger Dave July 27, 2016 7:32 PM  

What are you doing here, Donald? Get back out on the campaign trail. You got babies to slap and backs to kiss. You're right though, nobody likes Hillary, nobody.

Blogger Tom Kratman July 27, 2016 7:42 PM  

"Sounds like next week's Book of the Week."

Works for me, though I'd like to make sure that it's gone all the way to _free_ beforehand.

Anonymous Mr. Rational July 27, 2016 8:32 PM  

James Higham wrote:There's a tweeter called States Polls and he has the Donald close or winning 43 at this point. HRC must at least be worried, particularly with that emptying convention hall.
My left-leaning friends include a bunch of Hillary fans.  I've been telling them for years that Hildawg is perhaps THE most divisive figure in US politics.  That empty hall just went and proved it in terms that only the most blind of them can ignore:  she can't even unite the Dimocraps behind her.

I bet she'll be dead by November 3.  They'll call it a stroke, but if I could bet on the results of an independent autopsy I'd put my money on suicide.

Blogger Robert Divinity July 27, 2016 9:54 PM  

And monday's column is going to be "Why Trump and not Johnson (except in states that are absolutely safe for either Trump or Hillary)".

I'll give it a read but disagree with the tactic. It is imperative to run up the total as much as possible for several reasons:

1. A higher Trump vote total will reduce communist riots.

2. A higher Trump vote total will make cheating less effective; some states may be closer than assumed and a vote for Johnson could reduce the margin enough for fraud to work.

3. A higher Trump vote total will scare the fuck out of the cucks.

4. A higher Trump vote total will make the congressional GOP caucuses less likely to make alliances with Democrats on TPP and other legislation.

I could go on.

Again, I'll read your column so please link it here, if you would, but strategic Johnson voting doesn't seem like a good idea. Maybe I'll be persuaded but doubt it.

Blogger Robert Divinity July 27, 2016 9:57 PM  

*TPP was a bad example, but the point stands.

Blogger Emmett Fitz-Hume July 27, 2016 10:08 PM  

"A State of Disobedience" is a great read and I have been lending my copy out to friends for two years now. In my opinion, it's stronger than the Carrera series and I keep it on a shelf next to John Ringo's "The Last Centurion".

I recommend "The Last Centurion" as well to anyone here. Another great read that is eerily prescient at times.

Blogger Tom Kratman July 27, 2016 10:37 PM  

I see your concerns, Robert, but tend to look at more and larger communist riots as an excuse to break the quad fifties out of wherever we may have some stored. Well...that, and to give a little help to the hard pressed rope and streetlight makers of our country.

Blogger Tom Kratman July 27, 2016 10:38 PM  

Oh, and why not have a little faith that I know what I'm doing and that, sometimes, one has to give a little to get a little.

Blogger The Other Robot July 27, 2016 11:29 PM  

@49: A State of Disobedience was the first Kratman I read, and it is great for many reasons, including some references to the revolutionary war.

I have the Last Centurion but have become disenchanted with Ringo since he started writing about 15-YO girls who are all gung ho (or is it 13-YOs).

Anonymous Gaylen McSteinberg July 28, 2016 1:01 AM  

My God I'm looking forward to the whining, tears, confusing cries of "cheater" and general demoralized state of the AltRight when Trump looses and they realize that Americans completely rejects your silly and childish calls for a return to the 18th century.

But please, carry on. It's so fun to watch the build up to your dispair.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash July 28, 2016 1:44 AM  

Gaylen McSteinberg wrote:I'm looking forward to the whining, tears, confusing cries of "cheater" and general demoralized state of the AltRight when Trump looses and they realize that Americans completely rejects your silly and childish calls for a return to the 18th century.

That's funny, I'm looking forward to the interesting pattern your brains will make on the wall when the inevitable revolution comes.

Anonymous SciVo July 28, 2016 1:53 AM  

@53 Gaylen McSteinberg:

You have occluded cognition. I recommend you look into nootropics.

1. You are wrong about what we want.
2. You are wrong that Trump wants the same as us.
3. You are wrong to imagine that we think he does.
4. You are wrong about what will happen in November.
5. You are wrong about how we would react if he lost.

Trump isn't our candidate; he's our murder weapon, a shiv in the ribs of the Uniparty that is auctioning off Already-Americans' patrimony to the biggest donors.

If he loses, or he reneges on his platform, or it's politically blocked, or (the one I think is most likely) it's just too little too late, then you won't hear any complaints. Why would we say anything? The time for talking would be over.

Anonymous Hezekiah Garrett July 28, 2016 2:38 AM  

@53 dispair

Soros can't even buy semiliterate help.

What is the world coming to?

Blogger LurkingPuppy July 28, 2016 2:47 AM  

Gaylen McSteinberg wrote:Blah blah blah
“Gaylen McSteinberg”? Ha. Ha. Ha.

The actual trolls are bad enough; we don't need parodies like that.

Blogger James Dixon July 28, 2016 6:18 AM  

> My God I'm looking forward to the whining, tears, confusing cries of "cheater" and general demoralized state of the AltRight when Trump looses and they realize that Americans completely rejects your silly and childish calls for a return to the 18th century.

"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." - John F. Kennedy.

Be careful what you wish for.

> @53 dispair

You remember law number 2? Being a eunuch himself, he's projecting.

Blogger Robert Divinity July 28, 2016 8:12 AM  

Oh, and why not have a little faith that I know what I'm doing and that, sometimes, one has to give a little to get a little

I certainly will read your column and see how you address these points.

Blogger Robert Divinity July 28, 2016 8:14 AM  

whining, tears, confusing cries of "cheater"

We've aren't the #nevertrumpers and Clinton criminalistas. Expect scorn and ridicule.

Blogger Tom Kratman July 28, 2016 7:39 PM  

"I certainly will read your column and see how you address these points."

Some points are often not best addressed directly. Sometimes attaining a goal means not addressing things directly. Sometime the ideal goal is unattainable, in which case one works for what is attainable that is still worthwhile.

Blogger Dirk Manly July 28, 2016 7:51 PM  

@47

Not only that, but any vote for "Decommission EVERY AIRCRAFT CARRIER" Johnson is just plain idiotic. This is the first election in my adult life that I have EVER advised against voting for a Libertarian candidate.

Staying home is better than a protest vote for that fool.

Blogger Dirk Manly July 28, 2016 7:52 PM  

@47

Not only that, but any vote for "Decommission EVERY AIRCRAFT CARRIER" Johnson is just plain idiotic. This is the first election in my adult life that I have EVER advised against voting for a Libertarian candidate.

Staying home is better than a protest vote for that fool.

Blogger Dirk Manly July 28, 2016 7:57 PM  

@54
Snidely Whiplash wrote:Gaylen McSteinberg wrote:I'm looking forward to the whining, tears, confusing cries of "cheater" and general demoralized state of the AltRight when Trump looses and they realize that Americans completely rejects your silly and childish calls for a return to the 18th century.

That's funny, I'm looking forward to the interesting pattern your brains will make on the wall when the inevitable revolution comes.


Brains?

Creatures like Gaylen have brains?

Coulda' fooled me.

But yes, interesting bullet-energized tissue splatter patterns on the wall, nevertheless

Blogger Harleyrose59 July 29, 2016 9:38 AM  

Why are 33,000 deleted e-mails of yoga and wedding plans suddenly a 'national security issue?'
And how is asking the entire planet for THEIR copies 'treason'?
And since the FBI has no 'experts' capable of finding them, why didn't the FBI ask the whole planet for their copies months ago?

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