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Tuesday, July 26, 2016

State polls and date relevance

DH has been resolutely predicting a Clinton win on the basis of the state polls, which correctly predicted Obama wins in the last two elections.
The state by state projections as of today including all most recent polling still indicate a Clinton win with around 312EV. Trump has not altered the road map at this point. Including polling changes that could happen between now and election day, Sec. Clinton is cruising towards victory. 
Although I respect DH's acumen and take him very seriously with regards to anything that involves data analysis, I am nevertheless predicting a Trumpslide, a win of even bigger proportions than 312 Electoral College votes for Trump. How is it possible for me to do that considering the supposedly reliable evidence of the most recent state polling that DH is citing?

The reason is pretty straightforward. While the state polls have been pretty good predictor of the election results, my suspicion was that this is only true of state polls taken in the last week prior to the election. Before that, they tend to bounce all over the place. Unlike the national polls, they don't always tend to favor the Democratic candidate, then fall more in line as the election approaches; the state polls appear to be less corrupt than the national ones.

Allow me to demonstrate. I looked at the results of the McCain-Obama race, since that one was more similar to the current race given that it also lacked an incumbent, in all seven of the states identified as key "battleground" states. In each case, I listed the following:
  1. The earliest date that any state poll got the correct result.
  2. The latest date that any state poll had either a) the wrong candidate winning or b) a tie
  3. The RCP average of the final state polls from the last week prior to the election
  4. The actual results.
PENNSYLVANIA
Rasmussen 2/14 - 2/14 Obama +10
FOX News/Rasmussen 9/14 - 9/14 TIE
RCP Average: Obama +7.3
Final Results: Obama +10.3

VIRGINIA
SurveyUSA 2/15 - 2/17 Obama +6
Mason-Dixon 9/29 - 10/1 McCain +3
RCP Average: Obama +4.4
Final Result: Obama +6.3

FLORIDA
PPP  9/27 - 9/28 Obama +3
FOX News/Rasmussen 11/2 - 11/2 McCain +1
RCP Average: Obama +1.8
Final Results: Obama +2.8

OHIO
Quinnipiac 9/5 - 9/9 Obama +5
Mason-Dixon 10/29 - 10/30 McCain +2
RCP Average: Obama +2.5
Final Results: Obama +4.6

COLORADO
SurveyUSA 2/26 - 2/28 Obama +9
Denver Post/Mason-Dixon 9/29 - 10/1 TIE
RCP Average: Obama +5.5
Final Results: Obama +9.0

NORTH CAROLINA
Rasmussen 10/8 - 10/8 Obama +1
Reuters/Zogby 10/31 - 11/3 McCain +1
RCP Average:  McCain +0.4
Final Results: Obama +0.3

NEVADA
Associated Press 10/22 - 10/26 Obama +12
Politico/InAdv 10/19 - 10/19 TIE
RCP Average:  Obama +6.5
Final Results:  Obama +12.5

So, as early as FEBRUARY there were three battleground polls that correctly predicted the result, but in four other battleground states, there was not a single poll among the dozens that were taken that correctly predicted the result until October, or in two cases, November. Since none of the three correct polls were performed by the same company, and since in one case, that same poll went on to incorrectly predict a result that was off by 10 points, it's pretty clear that these results were random and therefore unable to serve as the basis for a predictive 2016 model.

Not only that, but there are no February state polls comparing Trump to Clinton, because back in February, Scott Adams, Mike Cernovich, Helmut Norpoth and I were about the only individuals publicly going on the record and stating that Trump would be the Republican nominee.

Now let's look at the latest date that a state poll incorrectly predicted the winner. Even in a state that Obama won by 12.5 percentage points, there were polls in October indicating a dead heat. Mid-September is the earliest date of an incorrect poll; in North Carolina, which was close, even the RCP average had McCain winning right up until the election took place.

Taken in sum, this means that it makes no sense to pay much attention to the state polls until September. What we can before then, however, is the general trend from one candidate to the other; in many of these battleground states, the gradual shift from McCain to Obama, or from leaning Obama to strong Obama, is apparent.

And what do the state polls show in this regard? At the moment, they are too much in flux to clearly read a trend, but they appear to be gradually following the shift from Clinton to Trump already seen in the national polls. So, I see no reason to revise my prediction of a Trumpslide.

Labels:

97 Comments:

Blogger Mr.MantraMan July 26, 2016 8:18 AM  

Except for PA the last polls are all post Lehman. Rahm and Bernanke had impeccable timing with that orchestrated "crisis", wait till the post Palin convention bounce, throw out an issue that can be blamed on Bush, wait till McCain plays establishment hack and trounce him. FTR Denninger says he has proof that Bernanke withdrew liquidity during the crisis days, so beyond not taking Lehman into receivership and auctioning off its assets Bernanke crippled the banking daisy chain, yeah Banksters.

Blogger Eric Guillaume Dilasser-McDowell July 26, 2016 8:20 AM  

The Primary Model predicts Trump 52.5% - 47.5% Hillary in November, and that very model has accurately predicted the result of every election but one (1960's disastrous live interview swing for Nixon) since 1912.

Anonymous JAG July 26, 2016 8:22 AM  

Another reason for the Trumpslide is that people are fucking sick and tired of the leftists and their bullshit. It has been exposed six ways from Sunday. Everybody knows it.

For example, people are sick of shit like this; NBA Commissioner (((Adam Silver))) boycotts North Carolina because it won't let the pervs in to spy on little girls peeing and showering. However, the NBA has no problem whatsoever selling tickets to games in China who forcibly takes vital organs from religious minorities.

This is just one example among thousands. Shitwitch getting away with so many felonies in a naked show of leftist government corruption should swing a few states by itself.

Blogger VD July 26, 2016 8:25 AM  

wait till McCain plays establishment hack and trounce him

Even at the time, I stated that McCain gave away a perfectly winnable election by "suspending" his campaign and rushing to bail out the banksters. That absolutely killed him; I very much doubt Obama would have won if McCain had not done that.

However, I think the 2016 black swans all tend to favor Trump, regardless of whether it is a major Muslim attack in the USA or Europe, an economic/market crisis, or Hillary having a seizure on national TV.

Blogger Physics Geek July 26, 2016 8:25 AM  

I still say that the Electoral College trends favor the Lizard Queen this fall. I will be quite pleased if I turn out to be wrong.

Blogger Robert Divinity July 26, 2016 8:31 AM  

Look at the swing state polls in the current RealClearPolitics averages that show an insignificant Clinton lead in Iowa and an insignificant Trump lead in Florida. They are scanty and few if any include days after the Republican convention ended. Swing states don't even get polled much individually until after the conventions cool off.

Trump is very well-positioned to win this election.

Blogger Shimshon July 26, 2016 8:36 AM  

...or Hillary having a seizure...

Once again, it is NOT a seizure. It is a spontaneous neural transient.

Anonymous NorthernHamlet July 26, 2016 8:41 AM  

Just like how many people seemed hesitant to admit their love of Trump in the primaries, the general will likely surprise people, especially the Left since they've become obsessed with the "science" of the poll.

I'm predicting the Silent Majority will vote Trump in and liberals have a serious meltdown.

Anonymous FisherOfMen July 26, 2016 8:44 AM  

>>I'm predicting the Silent Majority will vote Trump in and liberals have a serious meltdown.

If bad polls and bad methods predict a Hillary win, but the reality is a Trumpslide, expect howls and screams of fraud, etc... because the reality MUST match a poll of unemployed people with a land-line who pick up the phone in the middle of the day.

Anonymous AR Sniper July 26, 2016 8:47 AM  

All of the variables that could swing the #'s seem to favor Trump too, such as more:
Islamic attacks
Wikileaks/Emails
BLM violence

Unless Hillz has more than Racist!, Bully!,Russia! or Taxes! she's done.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan July 26, 2016 8:54 AM  

2008 personally I had a post Palin convention bounce, but McCain himself cured me of that, I voted third party, he got 58 million votes. Romney the Younger who gave no reason whatsoever to vote for him got 60 million votes. Bush the Second in 2004 exceeded both even after the NYTs and other outlets were cleared to become anti-war because he gave his constituency at least a minimal reason to vote Bush.

It's really not that hard to overcome the Left's authority, even Bush could do it when it was on the line. People virtue signal towards authority, strip the Left of that authority and then scoop those people into your camp.

Blogger CM July 26, 2016 9:03 AM  

2008 personally I had a post Palin convention bounce, but McCain himself cured me of that, I voted third party, he got 58 million votes.

I wasn't reading VP in 2008, but the differences in media consumption between myself and even my "conservative" friends has created a very odd difference in how we viewed that election. My friends think Palin was an idiot and hurt McCain... while I think Palin was a far more secure conservative that assured the base that McCain was being serious and that his vote for the bailout cost him the election.

I didn't think my media consumption was vastly different. I was reading Elusive Wapiti at the time, so I was getting a little bit of VD.

Blogger The Other Robot July 26, 2016 9:08 AM  

Was there a credible third-party candidate in 2008?

Anonymous The OASF July 26, 2016 9:10 AM  

"Even at the time, I stated that McCain gave away a perfectly winnable election by "suspending" his campaign and rushing to bail out the banksters. That absolutely killed him; I very much doubt Obama would have won if McCain had not done that."

Jackboot Johnny McCrazy was the "maverick", remember?

That entire campaign was comical - and the nonstop honoring of his false war-hero record at the convention right up until his acceptance speech still stupefies me to this day.

The fact that Obama could pardon Charles Manson so that the Dems could nominate him at the convention... and ol' Helter Skelter would still get about 47 percent of the vote by default relegates America to the tenth level of hell.

I find little hope in all of this other than the entertainment value, Trumpslides notwithstanding.

Think about it: Jackboot Johnny McInsane and his liberty hating fellow Trilateral Commissioners (masquerading as US Congressman) have already threatened to impeach Trump before he was, ya know, even nominated.

The only questions that remains in watching all of this is... "Yo want some budda with yo papcone???!!!!"

Blogger Nate July 26, 2016 9:11 AM  

I'm looking forward to the liberal brutality... its always such a shit storm win they lose. The wailing will be so sweet. And of course they'll need someone to blame. And it will no doubt be Hillary.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan July 26, 2016 9:14 AM  

#12 I would really never get into a debate about Palin's this or that with anyone who told me something negative, because they are reading from a script given to them by whomever and guaranteed I hold a negative view of that whomever.

It might not be "conservative nice" but it is much easier to discredit the script writers and their assumed "authority" than it is to debate the tedious details.

We live in a bully system, people are always virtue signaling towards authority and scolding those they think are slightly more askance of said authority. Discredit the authority and violently object to being scolded, it works.

Anonymous The OASF July 26, 2016 9:18 AM  

@15

Sanders will be in for a good tar & feathering as well as I doubt his pathetic boot licking displays will help him much at that point.

Anonymous Sazerac July 26, 2016 9:22 AM  

There is a blog "hillaryis44" (now anti-hillary, anti-globalist and very pro Trump and increasingly nationalist, even quotes from Mike Cernovich and Stefan Molyneux appear sometimes) that predicted that Trump would win the nomination around the time of the second debate last year.

The blog is now predicting a Trump presidential victory.

Very interestingly they posted an article yesterday before the DNC started stating that they believe Obama will stab Hillary in the back and install his wife to run instead.

Blogger Shimshon July 26, 2016 9:24 AM  

Lew Rockwell predicted a Trumpination early on.

Anonymous The OASF July 26, 2016 9:26 AM  

"Very interestingly they posted an article yesterday before the DNC started stating that they believe Obama will stab Hillary in the back and install his wife to run instead."

Considering the enormous demographic advantage that the Dems unfortunately have, a bait & switch (or maybe a switch & bait?) is actually more likely than not at this point. They literally don't have much to lose.

Anonymous Broken Arrow July 26, 2016 9:26 AM  

@15 The party won't split, but there will definitely be two competing factions of immigrants/minorities against young, white, socialists.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan July 26, 2016 9:27 AM  

#17 Sanders more than likely will be castrated by the gals who have taken over the D party controls.

Go to any lefty site and more than likely it is modded by gals and if they are personally not crazy they allow their crazies to run rampant while they tone police their rivals.

It's why I wrote that Scalzi needs to turn moderation over to at least "two trusted women" and I give it a year before he is booted off his own site, entryists indeed.

It is said women be crazy, well white women be the craziest of all if they lean left.

Blogger Cataline Sergius July 26, 2016 9:29 AM  

I'm looking forward to the liberal brutality... its always such a shit storm win they lose. The wailing will be so sweet.

I'm curious from a clinical perspective. How well will the Hivemind take a presidential defeat?

They've never had one before, Twitter/Facebook didn't exist back when Bush was in office. The left wasn't actively encouraging mental illness in it's ranks.

There is no baseline for comparison here.

Put it on a scale of one to ten. One, being depressed the day after the election. Five being rioting and Ten being mass suicides. In times past most lefties never got higher on that scale than Two; drunk all day after the election. But this time I don't know if they won't go above Five. I expect a few will actually kill themselves.

Blogger pyrrhus July 26, 2016 9:36 AM  

My perspective is that the polls will continue to understate Trump's strength, because some people continue to view public support for Trump as risky....People are well aware that you can be fired for supporting Trump, or expressing any politically incorrect sentiment. My kids left FB years ago, a wise move...

Blogger pyrrhus July 26, 2016 9:39 AM  

@22 Sadly, it has reached the point that well balanced white women must be treasured, because they are a distinct minority....

Anonymous Sazerac July 26, 2016 9:42 AM  

@20
Assuming I am understanding their points correctly then these are the reasons.

If Hillary wins then they will lose control of the party and hence lose a lot of power power and access to the crony cashflows that come with it.

If Hillary loses then Trump will start investigations into all the Obama corruption.

Hence best option now is to keep control of the party so that even if Trump wins they will be able to use their power and that of the party to protect themselves from him.

Blogger residentMoron July 26, 2016 9:49 AM  

I see the First Tranny has done a two minute hate on Trump, for hate.

Without a shred of shame.

Blogger residentMoron July 26, 2016 9:51 AM  

"@22 Sadly, it has reached the point that well balanced white women must be treasured, because they are a distinct minority...."

Well, pyrrhus, you ain't having mine.

Anonymous aegis-1080 July 26, 2016 9:53 AM  

Dems are still in love with Obama, and they are counting on a victory to be able to elevate him to sainthood right next to MLK and to be able to say that THEY were part of the Right Side of History (tm).

A Trump victory, followed by Trump saying "you're fired" to Obama in national TV is going to rob them of that. They will go nuts.

Anonymous FriarBob July 26, 2016 10:00 AM  

I hope the polls continue to be wrong. I think the fraud level is directly related to the poll results. They have to guess how many fraudulent ballots to fill out, after all, and most of that has to be done in advance. So the more the polls predict Hitlery to be close or even winning, the more likely too few dead people vote for her to officially win.

Blogger The Other Robot July 26, 2016 10:00 AM  

Very interestingly they posted an article yesterday before the DNC started stating that they believe Obama will stab Hillary in the back and install his wife to run instead.

Whoa! That is one way to get the black vote, for sure.

I wonder how the hillzoms and bernie bots will react?

Blogger residentMoron July 26, 2016 10:01 AM  

I'm almost tempted to join Facebook again, just to sneer at the Berniacs, now he's come out of the revolutionary closet as an open Hill Shill, saying:

"Clinton must be President!"

The poor saps.

Blogger Alexander July 26, 2016 10:04 AM  

It turns out it wasn't Trump who was the puppet candidate who was ultimately in it for Clinton. It was Sanders.

Berned.

Anonymous BGKB July 26, 2016 10:07 AM  

because the reality MUST match a poll of unemployed people with a land-line who pick up the phone in the middle of the day

Now now, they pole at gay pride festivals also. I heard that because of DNC leaks the bathhouses in PHILLY have all turned their wifi off for the convention.

Unless Hillz has more than Racist!, Bully!,Russia! or Taxes! she's done.

Which side does (((Diebold))) support

Blogger Jack Aubrey July 26, 2016 10:09 AM  

It won't be five minutes after the general election is called for Trump that the left will be urging members of the Electoral College to vote their consciences.

OpenID frankluke July 26, 2016 10:11 AM  

I know a few people who planned on voting 3rd party in 2008 after McCain secured the nomination. Because of Palin, they voted for her ticket.

Blogger dh July 26, 2016 10:17 AM  

This looks like solid analysis, I will look at in more detail shortly.

What would be interesting to see is which of the state polls are "wrong", as in, outside of the margin of error.

Blogger The Other Robot July 26, 2016 10:38 AM  

In other news, the Balfour Declaration might get some light shone on it.

Who knows what might come of that?

Blogger Salt July 26, 2016 10:38 AM  

VD wrote:or Hillary having a seizure on national TV.

What would the Ds do if Hillary were to suddenly be found unfit?

Blogger The Other Robot July 26, 2016 10:40 AM  

New Hampshire is pretty unimportant as things go, but Trump seems to have a 9 point lead over Clinton there.

Anonymous BGKB July 26, 2016 10:42 AM  

Relevant this article includes a form of voter fraud I didn't even know about.

http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2016/07/how_democrats_steal_elections.html

Anonymous Kevin Silver July 26, 2016 10:53 AM  

Did you guys even watch the WHOLE DNC

Michelle Obama gave a rousing speech and basically showed everyone why her version of America is superior to Trumps

Anonymous Daedalus Mugged July 26, 2016 10:54 AM  

This is coincidence, not statistically relevant, but it is interesting that the first poll to get the winner correct, also got the margin correct (with rounding) much more then even last polls or averages.

Anonymous Broken Arrow July 26, 2016 10:55 AM  

What's even more amazing is that is is a race at all. The demographics and EL are so far in the Democrats favor it's not even close, but they carted out sick, old, Hillary who people generally dislike and distrust.

If the Democrats would have picked a left of center, generic white, senator or governor with a minority VP Trump wouldn't have had a chance.

Anonymous BGKB July 26, 2016 10:55 AM  

HilLIARy's Cane to do amnesty in first 100 days.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jul/25/tim-kaine-promises-bill-legalize-illegal-immigrant/

Anonymous crushlimbraw July 26, 2016 11:00 AM  

Hey, VD - what is the possibility of a Trump landslide in popular vote and a Dem squeaker in the electoral? (I say Dem because I still believe daHill will withdraw.)
Also, if a few large blue states give the squeaker victory to the Dems in the electoral vote - what happens to the country - (and I don't mean politically)?

Blogger Nick S July 26, 2016 11:01 AM  

HilLIARy and the DNCe are lying liars and their base is too stupid to realize it.

Blogger The Other Robot July 26, 2016 11:03 AM  

Did you guys even watch the WHOLE DNC

Ahhh, so you've seen the future then?

Anonymous Hezekiah Garrett July 26, 2016 11:04 AM  

@42. No, dipshit, and neither have you. There's 2 days left.

Get somebody who can handle basic arithmetic to double check your pay from the DNC. You're obviously stupid enough to easily cheat.

Blogger praetorian July 26, 2016 11:07 AM  

My suspicion was that this is only true of state polls taken in the last week prior to the election

EXCELLENT POINT.

I have the same argument with betting-odds market fundamentalists who look at the betting odds as the end-all-be-all for predictions. Yes, they are usually right... right before the event in question.

Which is because they reflect the conventional wisdom, which is usually right... right before the event in question.

And then you have the betting-odds miss on Brexit....

http://politicalodds.bet/eu-referendum

Blogger The Other Robot July 26, 2016 11:07 AM  

@41: Yeah, the Trump camp is just too stupid to understand that it is all rigged.

Anonymous Crusader Corim July 26, 2016 11:09 AM  

@46 0%. The Electoral College actually mildly favors Republicans because they have no big states they win by huge margins. California and New York provide huge vote numbers for the Democrats but their electoral votes are baked into the pie.

If Trump wins the popular vote he will win the electoral college.

Anonymous Tiny Duck July 26, 2016 11:12 AM  

Trump has no chance.

The DNC convention looks like 21st century USA...the GOP convention was a time-warp back to Dixie, with white picket fences, shackled wives...and obedient slave underclass. Is there any doubt about how different the vision for America is between the DNC and RNC? On day one diversity that was at times uncomfortable - one has never heard this much Spanish in a convention - and checking boxes by naming every faction in existence ... red meat for the crowd ... but with a modicum of thoughtful tolerance ... it all works. A beautiful collage of emotion and purpose. Michelle kills it. Corey Booker hits some BHO notes. Elizabeth Warren a little subdued but substantive, measured, on message. And Bernie brings it home tying a version of his campaign speech to Hillary, more than suggesting that she will advance the progressive agenda ... and casting Trump as beyond the pale (as he is) and not an option.

Blogger Nick S July 26, 2016 11:13 AM  

Anyone else notice the DNC looks like the set of a game show? I can't quite put my finger on it, but I'm sure I've seen it before.

Blogger praetorian July 26, 2016 11:14 AM  

In other news, the Balfour Declaration might get some light shone on it.

It was the best of current years, it was the worst of current years.

Blogger S. Misanthrope July 26, 2016 11:19 AM  

1. The local polling almost reads like a narrative: dramatic big lead, swing back the other way, too close to call, and finally tempered but directionally accurate. Exactly what you'd want polls to show in order to attract viewership. Hmmm....

2. Dems will pull out all the stops on voter fraud this time. I get the sense most of the electorate doesn't care or doesn't believe that much fraud occurs. I hope Wikileaks and others will change that perception before November. Otherwise I think (in the short run) Hillary can just buy the presidency like she bought the nomination.

Blogger SemiSpook37 July 26, 2016 11:21 AM  

Kevin Silver wrote:Did you guys even watch the WHOLE DNC

Michelle Obama gave a rousing speech and basically showed everyone why her version of America is superior to Trumps


If I really wanted to watch an abortion, I'd go find a copy of "Silent Scream".

Blogger Paul Lutgen July 26, 2016 11:30 AM  

Who's votes are Gary Johnson drawing away from Dems or Repubs?

Blogger pyrrhus July 26, 2016 11:32 AM  

@50 It seems obvious that the Globalists are rigging some of the betting sites, since the odds on Brexit and now Hillary in no way reflected reality or current polling, unlike most of the other propositions being wagered on...

OpenID aew51183 July 26, 2016 11:50 AM  

@57

According to the most recent polls, it's drawing more away from the Democrats.
I was skeptical of this proposition when my uncle in swing territory said this, but it seems I owe him a drink.

Anonymous Roundtine July 26, 2016 11:56 AM  

It seems obvious that the Globalists are rigging some of the betting sites

So take their money.

Blogger Gaiseric July 26, 2016 12:04 PM  

Paul Lutgen wrote:Who's votes are Gary Johnson drawing away from Dems or Repubs?
Some Trucons, certainly, are looking at him instead of Trump. In places like Utah or Wyoming or Montana, etc. Johnson has a significant amount of the vote. Not enough to win a single county, mind you, so it'll be a completely invisible effect when electoral math starts to add up.

Other than that, he's starting to become a Bill Maher style liberal-libertarian, and between him and Jill Stein, they may keep the Hillary vote somewhat depressed in actual battleground counties here and there.

The real mathematically significant factor, I believe, will be the Dems who just stay home—just as many conservatives have done the last several elections.

Anonymous Bob Izza July 26, 2016 12:11 PM  

@7 Hillary was mocking over-caffeinated or seizure-afflicted reporters. It was a disgrace, talk about a media double-standard.

@58 These Trump in the lead polls may be a reversal of strategy

Isn't it curious that Bernie supporters know of the collusion and lies propagated between the DNC and media against Bernie. But yet, they believe those same people when they collude and spread lies about Trump. Can we have at least a little intellectual consistency?

Blogger James Dixon July 26, 2016 12:14 PM  

> Now let's look at the latest date that a state poll incorrectly predicted the winner. Even in a state that Obama won by 12.5 percentage points, there were polls in October indicating a dead heat.

I think you'll see the same thing if you check the numbers for Romney, though the gap won't be as large. That's my memory, at any rate.

> I know a few people who planned on voting 3rd party in 2008 after McCain secured the nomination. Because of Palin, they voted for her ticket.

It was almost enough to convince me. Almost, but they did insist on reversing the names from what they should have been, so I couldn't do it.

> What would the Ds do if Hillary were to suddenly be found unfit?

Who has the authority to find her unfit besides the voters? We can only hope they do so.

Anonymous Baltar July 26, 2016 12:38 PM  

Stunning "swing county" level polling data:

http://axiomstrategies.com/abc/

This one is hard to believe: Luzerne Count, PA. Obama carried it by 5% in 2012. Now, Trump +23%.

Blogger James Dixon July 26, 2016 12:40 PM  

> The real mathematically significant factor, I believe, will be the Dems who just stay home—just as many conservatives have done the last several elections.

I'm hoping for a depressed Hillary turnout, an energized Trump turnout, and a massive swing of working class democrats who cross the aisle to vote for Trump. If those happen, he should win.

Blogger praetorian July 26, 2016 12:48 PM  

It seems obvious that the Globalists are rigging some of the betting sites

B-b-b-b-b-but muh wisdom of crowds... Muh efficient market hypothesis...

Anonymous Sam the Man July 26, 2016 12:50 PM  

I find it interesting that the Dems here think the convention thus far was compelling to their case, while insulting all the folks here that might think differently then they do (Tiny Duck).

What I saw was different and I live once county north of Philly. A bunch of eaters, not producers who all want a free ride and are completely ignorant of their own hypocrisy. We are told we need to build a bridge to immigrant, yet they built two walls down at the convention to keep undesirables out.

The speeches were all about free healthcare, free college undoing student debt, free child care (or close to it). Where is the money to come from? Never answered.

One speaker talked about Jobs and the need for same for the middle class, but Hillary supported TPP for a long time.

Warren spoke of the need to reform wall street...Hillary is the biggest wallstreet funded candidate, with Kaine following up with the proposal to eliminate any regulations on the investment banks. Can you say cognitive dissonance?

Warren also covered the political corruption and how much reform was needed in Washington. Yet who has been in power the last 8 years and who was a major player in the administration? if they wanted reform they could have started with the executive branch. The hypocrisy is astounding.

It may play well to fags, feminists, transgendered, minorities that are perpetually angry, fat useless eaters who do not know what an honest days labor is, but for anyone else watching it was a freak show.

Anonymous Sam thr Man July 26, 2016 1:08 PM  

Oh yeah, forgot this. The press tried to hide it but there were Palestinian and Soviet flags in the audience. Did not see Mexican flags but there might have been.

if that is what the democratic party offers, that is one hell of an image for the US of A

Freak show.

OpenID aew51183 July 26, 2016 1:14 PM  

@68 do you have any clips, screencaps, or images? We could meme them out of office.

Blogger Aaron Kulkis July 26, 2016 1:20 PM  

Nobody in their right mind will vote for Gary Johnson.

1) At the Libertarian Party Convention, a delegate gave him an antique, muzzle-loading, black-powder pistol. Less than 30 minutes later, he was observed dumping the valuable relic into a trash can. Fortunately, it was retrieved.

2) That fool wants to decomission (not merely put into the mothball fleet, but permanently remove from service, and therefore, probably scrap) EVERY aircraft carrier in the U.S. Navy.

That is just plain idiotic.

Blogger dh July 26, 2016 1:28 PM  

Baltar,

That count has a last reported population of 320,000. So a it's a good size swing in absolute voters.

Now thinking about the demographics, consider that in Central Florida, also a swingy part of a swingy state, there have been at least (as of a year ago), 400,000 Puerto Ricans relocating from the island (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/25/us/central-florida-emerges-as-mainland-magnet-for-puerto-ricans.html?_r=0).

Those people are all eligible voters, and are breaking 2-to-1 or 3-to-1 for Democrats.

So Wilkes-Barre PA, which is 95% white, swung 20%+ points to Trump. Meanwhile, those 100k total voters who changed their mind are outnumbered, 3-to-1, by new brown, black, and mixed voters.

There is literally no escaping demographics.

Anonymous Yay Trump July 26, 2016 1:44 PM  

They vote at much lower than white turnout. So 100k white voters, who will turn out at 60-70% (assuming they're all not college educated) and appear to be voting 90% Trump up against 400k Puerto Ricans (if that's all adults), who will turn out at about 30-40% and vote about 25-40% Trump.

It's not quite as bad as you make out.

Anonymous Ominous Cowherd July 26, 2016 1:44 PM  

frankluke wrote:I know a few people who planned on voting 3rd party in 2008 after McCain secured the nomination. Because of Palin, they voted for her ticket.

Many of us did that. I never would have voted for McStain the traitor, but I voted for Sarah P. I know her a little - she would have made a poor President, but better than Shrub or McStain or 0bammy.

OpenID aew51183 July 26, 2016 1:50 PM  

@71

You mean the same central florida which has just seen first hand what democratic policies cost in human lives?

Latinos may be pre-disposed to vote left but they're also not stupid.

Anonymous George of the Jungle July 26, 2016 2:07 PM  

"Allow me to demonstrate. I looked at the results of the McCain-Obama race..."

Author, editor, economic/political analyst, founder of companies, designer, blogger, footballer, father, husband, and the list goes on. I am always amazed at the sheer volume of your detailed, high-quality activities. Where in the world do you get your energy and drive?

If you ever get bored with any part of your current career, you can always start a series of motivational time-management classes, and charge the big bucks. I will be the first to attend.

Blogger dh July 26, 2016 3:47 PM  

It's not quite as bad as you make out.

It's not as bad as it will be, but it's pretty bad. GW Bush, running for a theoretical grudge match against Pres. Obama, would have been a million votes shy of beating Pres. Obama, and that was the most Republican and most White votes in US history.

There are not enough voters left to outweigh the gains that are being made by the minority voters who go heavy Republican.

Blogger Aziz P. July 26, 2016 3:47 PM  

the timing of a poll isnt as relevant as the total average however. You cant infer a trend from partial data. The reason the RCP averages are effective is because they are averages over the entire polling season. IN actual voter behavior, attitudes harden early on, and variation is due to sampling error more than evolution in support. The final vote is highly correlated to the voter demographics which do not change. Ultimately the election hinges on the movement of a very small group of voters, the "independents" who are numerically too small to really be sampled accurately over time. This is why the average has more validity than any snapshot in time, be it early or late.

Your analysis is a clever and original one. The logic is appealing to me. However i think you are putting too much weight on the analogy to 2008 vis lack of incumbency; Obama's re-election in 2012 was actually a much closer election than his election in 2008, so if anything his incumbency was more a hindrance than help. Romney came much closer than McCain to winning. I think you make a mistake in not applying your analysis to 2012.

Also, your definition of swing state is somewhat arbitrary. a more rigorous definition would be any state that went for one candidate or another by less than 5 points, and did not stay with a single party for more than 3 consecutive cycles.

I dont know what the outcome of your analysis methodology to 2012 and swing states as I defined them above will be, so I am not going to make a claim whether it will prove or disprove your point. But I do think it would be more rigorous.

Anonymous BGKB July 26, 2016 3:58 PM  

OMG I know we talked about how many blacks would be smart enough to vote for TRUMP because Hispanics are taking their place but here is a stupid one for TRUMP thinking it will be better for BLM because HilLIARy would be too nice. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6MlTwQwjDPA

The Darian Long of the "He gay, tazering women fame."

Anonymous SciVo July 26, 2016 4:11 PM  

Cataline Sergius wrote:I'm curious from a clinical perspective. How well will the Hivemind take a presidential defeat? ... Put it on a scale of one to ten. One, being depressed the day after the election. Five being rioting and Ten being mass suicides. In times past most lefties never got higher on that scale than Two; drunk all day after the election.

Seven, widespread urban terrorism with a sprinkling of suicide. (I think Ten would be an attempted coup using sympathizers in the military, so Eight would be political assassinations and Nine would be paramilitary guerrilla warfare.)

It's fun to make predictions, and it's also a good test of your mental models. My reasoning is that metapeople tend to be sociopathic unless specifically designed otherwise, since a human component is at the level of a single neuron -- which you might be willing to kill just for an alcohol buzz -- and a non-member is less.

Then combine that with their leaders recklessly and relentlessly pounding the drum of Trump Is Literally Hitler, and shit's gonna go down when he wins. Plus a large quantity of feminist Tumblr is quite mentally ill, and it's taking all they've got to keep from killing themselves right now.

(As an aside, I'm sure that more than one part of the Deep State has lists of people that they would like to see "suicided", and a spontaneous rash would be a good forest to hide a fake tree in. So watch for suspiciously prominent dissidents to suddenly decide to kill themselves by overdosing on sleeping pills that they don't have prescriptions for.)

Now, I think that the SJW hivemind is a low-functioning sociopath, so it won't rise to the level of targeted assassinations, let alone a full-blown coup. However, it would be relatively easy for its decision-making cortices to direct its otherwise inchoate fear and rage toward loci of visible power and authority, such as courthouses and police stations. Nov. 8 will be a bad night for cops riding alone.

I was wrong about the Republican convention; they brought in cops from all over the country, and the usual suspects in the labor unions ignored the call to protest, so the anarchists didn't have a sea to swim in. But I might be right about this, because it would be too widespread for the authorities to bring force to bear, combined with the moral imperative (and visceral fear and hatred) of Literally Hitler.

Blogger Anchorman July 26, 2016 4:32 PM  

Trump speaks at the National VFW convention

Blogger VD July 26, 2016 5:07 PM  

I am always amazed at the sheer volume of your detailed, high-quality activities. Where in the world do you get your energy and drive?

I'm actually exceptionally lazy. Just ask anyone who is waiting on something from me. I don't think people understand how easy it is to do something like this, it's the conceptual angle that is difficult and that takes no time at all.

The reason the RCP averages are effective is because they are averages over the entire polling season.

They don't. The RCP averages above are over the course of a week, usually 10/31 to 11/3 in the case of McCain-Obama. They are NOT the RCP averages reported earlier in the campaign, which are even less accurate.

Blogger James Dixon July 26, 2016 5:13 PM  

> If you ever get bored with any part of your current career, you can always start a series of motivational time-management classes,

From the left sidebar: "Dark Lord Consulting"

Blogger VD July 26, 2016 5:14 PM  

. I think you make a mistake in not applying your analysis to 2012.

Oh, do you? Do you think that because you actually looked at the data? No, of course you didn't, because you just had to do that stupid midwit thing of striking a pose and spouting off critically without knowing what you're talking about.

I'm not going to bother, because the very first state I looked at showed that the same effect was even worse in 2012 in that state.

OpenID simplytimothy July 26, 2016 5:19 PM  


Not only that, but there are no February state polls comparing Trump to Clinton, because back in February, Scott Adams, Mike Cernovich, Helmut Norpoth and I were about the only individuals publicly going o


DailyPundit was there too. Blogoshperians look out for Blogospherians.





OpenID simplytimothy July 26, 2016 5:22 PM  

Hildebeast will have a post-convention THUD.

Anonymous SciVo July 26, 2016 5:26 PM  

pyrrhus wrote:@22 Sadly, it has reached the point that well balanced white women must be treasured, because they are a distinct minority....

Indeed, they're increasingly top-heavy.

Anonymous SciVo July 26, 2016 5:41 PM  

Paul Lutgen wrote:Who's votes are Gary Johnson drawing away from Dems or Repubs?

Dems. By supporting civil "rights" (to force other people to cater to your whims) over its eponym, the ACLU has pulled off the mask of left-libertarianism as an oxymoron and sick joke. It's only a viable stance in a majority conservative Christian capitalist country; as soon as leftists form a majority, the left-authoritarians take over and go straight to socialism and thought-policing.

Blogger Were-Puppy July 26, 2016 5:54 PM  

@39 Salt
What would the Ds do if Hillary were to suddenly be found unfit?
---

Weekend at Bernies was supposed to star Bernie, not Hillary. But I bet they can make it work all the same.

Blogger Were-Puppy July 26, 2016 5:57 PM  

@42 Kevin Silver
Did you guys even watch the WHOLE DNC

Michelle Obama gave a rousing speech and basically showed everyone why her version of America is superior to Trumps
---

I had heard Reggie gave quite the speech

Blogger Were-Puppy July 26, 2016 6:00 PM  

@53 Nick S
Anyone else notice the DNC looks like the set of a game show? I can't quite put my finger on it, but I'm sure I've seen it before.
---

Black Out hosted by Irkle. Same thing happens to the contestants too.

Blogger SirHamster July 26, 2016 6:22 PM  

Aaron Kulkis wrote:1) At the Libertarian Party Convention, a delegate gave him an antique, muzzle-loading, black-powder pistol. Less than 30 minutes later, he was observed dumping the valuable relic into a trash can. Fortunately, it was retrieved.

It was a replica of George Washington’s flintlock pistol, so not an antique relic.

Still horrible given the gesture and symbol.

Blogger GFR July 26, 2016 10:24 PM  

And yet two thirds of the dummycrat party is still non-hispanic White...

Anonymous BGKB July 26, 2016 10:57 PM  

I know its late but http://www.breitbart.com/video/2016/07/26/ed-rendell-trumps-trade-message-resonates-pennsylvania/

"Tuesday in Philadelphia at the Democratic National Convention in an interview with Politico, former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell (D-PA) said Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s message on trade was “resonating with white blue collar workers” in his home state, which according to him Pennsylvania was “in play.”

Rendell said, “I warn Democrats Donald Trump is giving a message that is resonating with white blue collar workers who worked in factory who worked on construction crews. We would be naive if we didn’t understand that exists So this state is in play"

Blogger The Other Robot July 26, 2016 11:42 PM  

There are not enough voters left to outweigh the gains that are being made by the minority voters who go heavy Republican.

DH, let's assume you meant Democratic above. However, you are still delusional.

1. As Steve Sailer has pointed out, Hispanics disappoint in terms of turn out time and time again, and in CA, the Democrats have pit a half black woman against a HINO woman. Why would they do that if the actually expect Hispanics to turn out.

2. Blacks this time around have nothing to turn out for. Well, not nothing. A horrible old woman and a fat old white man. Good luck with that.

3. Moving down the ticket, are you expecting lots of LBGTQETC turnout? They are very small numbers and will probably be too busy buggering each other silly to bother to vote.

So, where are you expecting these minority votes? PA? NY? Even in CA, I expect it will be deluded whites who will carry CA for Clinton, but that is baked into the cake anyway.

Blogger Akulkis July 27, 2016 10:47 AM  

@94

For the record, it's GLTBBQOMGWTF

Blogger Aziz P. July 27, 2016 6:40 PM  

VD wrote:I'm not going to bother, because the very first state I looked at showed that the same effect was even worse in 2012 in that state.

so, you actually didn't make the mistake I think you made, and you *did* apply your analysis to 2012, even though you implied you didnt in your post.

I wont quibble with being called a midwit, but if I were striking a pose, I'd have said "you doofus, had you applied your analysis to 2012 you would see I am totally right and everything you said is totally wrong" but in fact I pretty much said the opposite of that. I don't fault you for misreading my comments, after all I did score higher than you on the vocab size test ;)

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