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Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Trump makes up the gap

He hasn't even begun campaigning in earnest against Crooked Hillary Clinton and already Donald Trump is poised to take the swing states:
With a drop in grades on honesty and moral standards, Democrat Hillary Clinton loses an 8-point lead over Republican Donald Trump in Florida, and finds herself in too-close-to-call races in the three critical swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.

Clinton loses ground on almost every measure from a June 21 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. The Swing State Poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states.

The presidential matchups show:
  •     Florida - Trump at 42 percent to Clinton's 39, compared to a 47 - 39 percent Clinton lead June 21;
  •     Ohio - Clinton and Trump tied 41 - 41 percent, compared to a 40 - 40 percent tie June 21;
  •     Pennsylvania - Trump at 43 percent to Clinton's 41 percent, compared to June 21, when Clinton had 42 percent to Trump's 41 percent. With third party candidates in the race, results are:
  •     Florida - Trump leads Clinton 41 - 36 percent, with 7 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 4 percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein;
  •     Ohio - Trump at 37 percent to Clinton's 36 percent, with Johnson at 7 percent and Stein at 6 percent;
  •     Pennsylvania - Trump over Clinton 40 - 34 percent with 9 percent for Johnson and 3 percent for Stein.
"Donald Trump enters the Republican Convention on a small roll in the three most important swing states in the country. He has wiped out Hillary Clinton's lead in Florida; is on the upside of too-close to call races in Florida and Pennsylvania and is locked in a dead heat in Ohio," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
Remember, you heard predictions of a Trumpslide here first. Trump isn't merely going to win, he's going to win big because Crooked Hillary is a spectacularly bad candidate, and the chances that she's going to survive the inevitable presidential debates intact are slim at best.

Scott Adams concurs:
The new Quinnipiac poll shows Trump now leading in 4-out-of-5 battleground states. Most of the polling was done before the FBI announced its email server decision. Do you know what else was happening during that time to influence polls?

Answer: Nothing

In other words, Trump didn’t do anything outrageous for a few weeks. That’s all he needs to do from here on out – more nothing – to win in a landslide. The “Crooked Hillary” harpoon he landed a few months ago is bleeding her out. Trump’s glide path to victory involves picking his cabinet and acting serious for a few months. That’s all it will take.

Labels:

203 Comments:

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Anonymous Weak July 13, 2016 11:34 AM  

I heard about the Trumpslide from Scott Adams a long time ago.

Anonymous TLM July 13, 2016 11:37 AM  

Team HIll, the MSM, and the usual lefties will pivot to focus on the VP candidates. This is where it might get a little tricky for the Donald. That's if he goes with Gingrich. Too much baggage IMO. Pence seems to be the safe/smart move. But as long as Trunp doesn't back down on the wall, muslims, etc he should 'Cruz' to victory.

Anonymous Michael Maier July 13, 2016 11:40 AM  

I'd hate to bet AGAINST her stroking out seeing his utter contempt in person.

Blogger Alexander July 13, 2016 11:41 AM  

People I know who were against Trump are suddenly willing to consider him... as long as he picks someone like Kasich - or even better, Nikki "Haley" Randhawa - as his running mate.

They're very agonized, you understand. Susan Martinez would be acceptable, too. Just please please please nobody that would *force* me to vote for Hillary.

Cucks and (((independence))) need to check their tint: they're very, very transparent these days.

Anonymous A Visitor July 13, 2016 11:41 AM  

w00t! I just hope he doesn't choose Pence. The man folded when RFRA was criticized after being signed into law; he asked the General Assembly to redo the bill, essentially gutting it. This was an issue he supposedly cared about too. I might not vote for him if he ends up running as governor. He was decent on the Hill; disappointment as a governor (and I've lived here for about 20 years).

Blogger Cluebat Vanexodar July 13, 2016 11:41 AM  

Hit her now. Taunt her into attacking and keep her attacking until the public is sick of hearing it. In the meanwhile, identify her online agents and anticipate their movements.

Blogger Elocutioner July 13, 2016 11:42 AM  

When he starts to pull away the preference cascade will kick in. The streets of Manhattan will be littered with dead journos.

I expect he'll take the left's planned riots and violence next week and turn it as a positive then immediately go on the attack and not let Hillary get her head above water coming out of the DNC convention. If Hillary is significantly behind going into the debate(s) she'll be desperate and choke, maybe even have another stroke.

Most entertaining election evah!

Anonymous cheddarman July 13, 2016 11:42 AM  

"Commence operation bitch slap," said the Trumpenator.

Blogger SamuraiJack July 13, 2016 11:44 AM  

I hope she dies on stage after a coughing fit with Trump nodding approvingly.

Anonymous krymneth July 13, 2016 11:44 AM  

Scott Adam's latest, taking the latest polls into account.

Another fun electoral tidbit: Hillary Clinton has never risen in the polls during an election. The elections she's won she started with something like 90% of the polling, and won with 55%. The elections she's lost, she starts lower and ended lower yet. There is no reason whatsoever to believe that she can increase her appeal to the general electorate when she couldn't even do it in much smaller and much friendlier elections.

If she's already in a situation where the election, if held today, would at least be "a close thing" and may already be a loss for her (hard to say but it's not out of the question at this point), she's not looking good.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan July 13, 2016 11:49 AM  

We discredit virtue signaling Hillary could be cast as the victim in snuff porn and the vast majority would laugh about it

Anonymous Credo in Unum Deum July 13, 2016 11:49 AM  

Trump entered the primaries with 16 opponents.

Hillary entered the primaries with 1 opponent.

Every one of Trump's opponent was out for Trump's Golden Scalp.

Bernie Sanders gave up his stage to BLM bitches.

Trump has been called every name under the sun.
Trump has had his supporters beaten and bloodied.
Trump has said things that have been twisted into moebius strips.

Hillary hasn't had a press conference in over 200 days.
Hillary has only had prearranged, soft-ball questions thrown at her.



Who do you think is going to win?

Anonymous #8601 Jean Valjean July 13, 2016 11:50 AM  

Nigel will apparently be attending the GOP convention. Must the VP also be born in the USA?

If not, Nigel for VP!

Blogger tz July 13, 2016 11:52 AM  

I've been saying 40 states for a while and expect it might be 48.

OT NYT on training police to kill and getting them off by lame excuses.

Blogger Brian S July 13, 2016 11:53 AM  

concern now shifting from "can he win?" to "what will he actually be able to do once in? (will he stay true to his campaign talking points)"

Blogger lowercaseb July 13, 2016 11:54 AM  

"Trump isn't merely going to win, he's going to win big because Crooked Hillary is a spectacularly bad candidate"

Just get ready to get out on the street and make sure that the mandate of the voters is carried out. There will be shenanigans but when push comes to shove, the other side will cave.

Now I see why there was a glut of Zombie games the last couple of years...we are now prepared to fight when the dead rise and start to vote in November.

Anonymous Chris Han July 13, 2016 11:56 AM  

It's not a slam dunk for Donald Trump.

Hillary could be the worst ever candidate to run for president, but that won't stop her from winning.

You need a substantial white male base voting Republican to put Trump over the top. Are their numbers enough? And how are you going to bring over white Dems or independents without pandering to their leftist/liberal pet causes?

Meanwhile, you've got increasing numbers of non-white immigrants coming in, most of them who will likely register as Democrats. Who among them will vote with the white man for Trump?

And that's not counting the very real possibility of voter fraud at the election booth.

So I would hold off on any Trump victory celebrations at this point.

Blogger Brian S July 13, 2016 11:56 AM  

lowercaseb wrote:Now I see why there was a glut of Zombie games the last couple of years...we are now prepared to fight when the dead rise and start to vote in November.

Hoping DayZ doesn't turn out to be training for real life

Anonymous #8601 Jean Valjean July 13, 2016 11:57 AM  

If Hillary's best strategy is to try and brand Trump a racist, good luck with that. Already been tried a hundred times with zero success.

Anonymous Alekhine July 13, 2016 11:57 AM  

I like Hillary.

But then again I like June Shannon.

Blogger Nate July 13, 2016 11:58 AM  

yup. Its not gonna be Reagan Mondale bad.. but it will be bad. Basically every state that's been red since 1996 will go red this time.

Anonymous Napoleon 12pdr July 13, 2016 11:58 AM  

I think Scott Adams is right. Trump needs to go on defense with regard to policy, stay offensive on character and judgment. Do that, and it will be a short Election Night - and a Yuge Party.

Watching Trump assemble a Cabinet will be interesting. He's likely to have Gingrich somewhere in the administration...and if Trump thinks he can harness Gingrich, he's willing to take on others who won't be yes-men.

Blogger Arthur Isaac July 13, 2016 12:00 PM  

Saw Hillary complaining about what journalists let candidates get away with.

Blogger dh July 13, 2016 12:02 PM  

Stick to things you know VD. Like fiction, science, etc. Politics is not your thing.

My best prediction: Clinton 307 EV, Trump 231 EV

Blogger lowercaseb July 13, 2016 12:04 PM  

Nate wrote:yup. Its not gonna be Reagan Mondale bad.. but it will be bad. Basically every state that's been red since 1996 will go red this time.

I can't remember where I read it, but someone pointed out that 2016 is a lot like the election of '68, only without the third party run of Wallace.

Anonymous Northern Observer July 13, 2016 12:05 PM  

"Remember, you heard predictions of a Trumpslide here first. Trump isn't merely going to win, he's going to win big"

Given past accuracy with political predictions, this is pretty much the kiss of death for Trump's campaign.

Blogger Phelps July 13, 2016 12:09 PM  

If the pollsters are willing to come out this early and say that it is competitive, then it's Trump by a landslide.

Remember how the criminal pollsters do this -- they use the polls as propaganda until the end, and then "shift" to show that it is "competitive" right before the election to try to preserve their credibility. That's exactly what you saw with Brexit, and most elections.

That they are making this call this early means that the numbers are so bad that they feel like they need to shift this early to keep credibility.

Blogger lowercaseb July 13, 2016 12:10 PM  

#8601 Jean Valjean wrote:If Hillary's best strategy is to try and brand Trump a racist, good luck with that. Already been tried a hundred times with zero success.

...and every time they try they convert more people into realizing that every one of us is a closet racist...and that is not such a horrible thing. It's the one thing that every color of the rainbow shares...

Anonymous Icicle July 13, 2016 12:10 PM  

Never use Hillary and slim in the same sentence. Or sane sentence.

Blogger Jon M July 13, 2016 12:12 PM  

Look for the normal 3-point bump following the RNC to double this time out. The Republicans will gain an additional 3-point bump when Americans see the leftist agitators turn Cleveland into another San Jose. This time, however, the press won't be able to bury the story as deep. The RNC is too big a stage for that.

This time out the Left is its own worst enemy.

Blogger Cicatrizatic July 13, 2016 12:12 PM  

These state polls are showing people how erroneous the media's national polls are. The latest Reuters national poll has Clinton +13. Their sample is now 51% Democrat, 35% Republican, 14% Independent. Quite simply an absurd sampling. In the last 4 presidential elections, the largest share the Democrats have enjoyed was 39%, which was the 2008 election.

Blogger Patrick July 13, 2016 12:14 PM  

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Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother July 13, 2016 12:14 PM  

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/presidential-campaign/287198-all-delegates-are-unbound

Oh but the delegates aren't really bound. They've been lying to us the whole time. My vote wasn't really bound in 2012. My sister's wasn't bound in 2008. They just gave us that impression.

Blogger Dave July 13, 2016 12:14 PM  

Per the MSM Hill's already won the debates, all she has to do is walk on stage.

Blogger Cail Corishev July 13, 2016 12:14 PM  

This is big, because the hope of the Republican wing of NeverTrump was that they could convince the delgates that Trump, down by 10 points last month, couldn't win, so they should dump him for the sake of the party, and they even had an "honorable" excuse prepared.

If they're basically even, that argument is gone. If he's pulling ahead in some polls by the convention, it's really gone, and you'll start to see GOPers running to catch up to the bandwagon. What happens when he's not running against 1.5 parties?

Blogger Cluebat Vanexodar July 13, 2016 12:15 PM  

Philly cab drivers are threating a strike during the Dem convention. I propose in the event of a strike: an operation to hinder transport. Making Uber connections difficult would be one way. Spread the word using a #PunkUber hashtag and have people do what ever they can to load the system.

Anonymous SciVo July 13, 2016 12:17 PM  

#8601 Jean Valjean wrote:Nigel will apparently be attending the GOP convention. Must the VP also be born in the USA?

Yes, he has to meet all the requirements of the Presidency because that's the point of the post. Even Boris Johnson isn't eligible, despite being an anchor baby, due to not having 14 years of residency.

Blogger Tom K. July 13, 2016 12:17 PM  

I have not liked ANY of Trump's VP possibilities. NONE. All establishment insiders. Even Gingrich. He pushed through NAFTA.

Problem is I can't think of anyone else because anyone who might spark interest is, by definition, an unknown.

Blogger Leo Little Book July 13, 2016 12:20 PM  

First Saint Trump has to slay the dragon. We're going to need some new special effects for her meltdown.

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother July 13, 2016 12:25 PM  

Jim Webb would be an awesome pick for VP, if Trump wants to go full shit lord. Webb would also be a great insurance policy for Trump to survive all four years.

Blogger Patrick July 13, 2016 12:26 PM  

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Blogger Nick S July 13, 2016 12:27 PM  

The NeverTrumpers are an inert non-factor, at this point. If Hillary wins, I will thenceforth always include an exclamation point at the end of MPAI!

Blogger Patrick July 13, 2016 12:28 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Anonymous SciVo July 13, 2016 12:31 PM  

dh wrote:My best prediction: Clinton 307 EV, Trump 231 EV

I stand by my prediction of Trump 352, except that I didn't take third-party candidates into account. I may modify it when I see who gets ballot access where.

Blogger James Dixon July 13, 2016 12:33 PM  

> You need a substantial white male base voting Republican to put Trump over the top. Are their numbers enough?

Yes.

> And how are you going to bring over white Dems or independents without pandering to their leftist/liberal pet causes?

They're called working class democrats. They're the ones who gave Reagan his sweep. They can do he same for Trump. He's the only one addressing their concerns.

I'm not going to make a prediction, but Trump can win. The voting base is there for the taking.

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother July 13, 2016 12:34 PM  

@42 You know they will, and they'll say they're just following what real Republicans want, and they'll nominate a true conservative who can win or some other horseshit.

Anonymous Great Again July 13, 2016 12:37 PM  

Chris Han wrote:It's not a slam dunk for Donald Trump.

Hillary could be the worst ever candidate to run for president, but that won't stop her from winning.

You need a substantial white male base voting Republican to put Trump over the top. Are their numbers enough? And how are you going to bring over white Dems or independents without pandering to their leftist/liberal pet causes?

Meanwhile, you've got increasing numbers of non-white immigrants coming in, most of them who will likely register as Democrats. Who among them will vote with the white man for Trump?

And that's not counting the very real possibility of voter fraud at the election booth.

So I would hold off on any Trump victory celebrations at this point.


Thanks to the nature of the Electoral College, this isn't so much of an issue yet. Yes, the recent immigration has made states like California, and now Colorado and Nevada unwinnable; but there are still plenty of white males in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan. And fortunately, the immigrants in Florida (mostly Cubans) have enough first-hand understanding of the failures of socialism to at least be open-minded to Republican candidates.

Texas is the last stand. If Texas turns Democrat, the country is lost.

Blogger Patrick July 13, 2016 12:38 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger SouthRon July 13, 2016 12:42 PM  

I love watching this blog. Neither Shillary's shills nor the CuckOps have any idea how much their stand out like a pimple on a model's ass. It's almost as much fun as the playing Spot the Intel Agitator.

Anonymous nordicthunder July 13, 2016 12:44 PM  

those 3rd party numbers seem unusually high

Blogger Unknown July 13, 2016 12:44 PM  

The amount of ownage we will see when Hillary stands on the same stage as Trump is going to be epic. Trump is not afraid of her, and will treat her in exactly the manner she deserves.

OpenID richard1j July 13, 2016 12:45 PM  

First, I think Hillary engineered the timing of the DOJ statement to affect the polls now. Second: Who says there is going to be a formal debate. Hillary would end up coughing her way to a loss and she knows it.

Anonymous trk July 13, 2016 12:48 PM  

I bet Hillary won't debate Trump. She will pull the "he isn't real candidate" card.

Blogger VD July 13, 2016 12:50 PM  


Given past accuracy with political predictions, this is pretty much the kiss of death for Trump's campaign.


Like #Brexit?

Blogger Cail Corishev July 13, 2016 12:50 PM  

You need a substantial white male base voting Republican to put Trump over the top. Are their numbers enough?

Yes. Romney would have won if he'd gotten something like 5% more of the white vote in a handful of states. A few million working-class whites who don't normally bother to choose between the Wall Street Party and the Welfare Party would be enough.

Bad as Hillary is, they might not even be necessary, though.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash July 13, 2016 12:52 PM  

#NeverTrump simply doesn't matter.

They are a bunch of "pundits" who never mattered in the first place. They don't drive opinion, they provide cheap intellectual justification for the policies that their masters have already decided on. The people who would be influenced by them were already going to mindlessly obey CoC and the investment bankers regardless.

What's worse for them is discovering that they don't matter. They're used to being ignored by the Left, what happens to a useless virtue-sgnalling cuck like Kevin Williamson or Jonah Goldberg when they discover that they have wasted their credibility and authority opposing Trump and have literally NO influence?

"There he goes, off to write his next hit song, Alone In My Principles." --Lenny Haise

At least Ace is smart enough to hedge his bets.

Anonymous krymneth July 13, 2016 12:53 PM  

"Not having a debate" is not "Hillary wins the debate". Not having a debate is a major, visceral sign of weakness. Even if the press superficially manages to spin it and people claim it doesn't bother them, it still will, deep down.

Besides, we're not used to our (R)s having even tiny amount of balls. My guess on what happens if Hillary tries to not have a debate is Trump just schedules one anyhow. Trump's not the normal (R) who would fall over himself to apologize for the presumption of thinking that Hillary ought to stand up for a debate, with Hillary probably begging off due to health issues. Trump punches. If push comes to shove, Hillary may not actually have any say in whether there's a debate, only whether she shows up!

Anonymous Joe Blowe July 13, 2016 12:58 PM  

That’s all it will take.

He also has to survive the army of Lee Harvey Oswalds that the Bush/Clinton Crime Syndicate have probably already unleashed. Not mention the killers sent by both Mossad and the Globalist Bankster Elite. There have already been two attempted assassinations that we know about.

Pray for Trump.

Blogger Cail Corishev July 13, 2016 1:02 PM  

The biggest danger for Trump in a debate is that he'll beat her so badly that people sympathize with the poor, abused old lady. I think he can manage to calibrate it better than that, though.

If Hillary doesn't want to debate, he should just debate Bernie like he suggested before, or whatever Democrat he can get to show up. Heck, start challenging Democrat shills from the media. "Hey, Chris Matthews, want to debate me in place of your candidate, since she chickened out?"

Blogger Josh July 13, 2016 1:07 PM  

Vox must be a secret double agent trying to jinx god emperor trump.

Maybe vox doesn't want to Make America Great Again?

Blogger Josh July 13, 2016 1:07 PM  

Vox must be a secret double agent trying to jinx god emperor trump.

Maybe vox doesn't want to Make America Great Again?

Blogger Nick S July 13, 2016 1:07 PM  

Listening to Hillary in the background, it sounds like she's going all-in and hanging her hat on gun control. If so, Trump's a shoo-in.

Anonymous Nigel Roxx July 13, 2016 1:08 PM  

@12 I thought you were lying- but it seems to be true! Yes!

Nigel: (paraphrasing from a CNN interview) "No force on earth would make me vote for Hillary, she is an elite, a globalist who thinks she has a divine right to be President."


Blogger Nick S July 13, 2016 1:10 PM  

Trump should do an "I am freedom's safest place" spot for the NRA.

Anonymous krymneth July 13, 2016 1:11 PM  

I wonder how slanted the polls will be by late October. "In this poll of 87% Democratic voters, Hillary is beating that bignasty Trump 55-43! Relax, victory is assured!"

Blogger Were-Puppy July 13, 2016 1:16 PM  

Fortune Cookie say "Hirrary Crinton Roose Erection"

Anonymous Broken Arrow July 13, 2016 1:20 PM  

I've noticed in the last few weeks a few #NeverTrump and Cucks have been giving him praise when he's gotten something very right, in contrast to a few months ago when nothing he did was good to that crowd.

Scott Adams is right, he's acting more presidential and meaning those who care the most about manners can support him.

Blogger Dave July 13, 2016 1:21 PM  

Fox News has suspended it's contributor agreement with Gingrich. VP odds on Gingrich have jumped from 21% to 37%. Pence fell from 49% to 42%

Blogger Were-Puppy July 13, 2016 1:22 PM  

@26 Phelps
If the pollsters are willing to come out this early and say that it is competitive, then it's Trump by a landslide.

---

I wonder if they are doing this to try and get their lefty base to take it more seriously? Meaning, "Pay attention or xhe might actually lose!"

Anonymous A Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents July 13, 2016 1:24 PM  

Trump “debates” an empty podium, that would be hilarious. Even Georgie Steffanuffalgus couldn’t spin that successfully.

Trump 2016 - For The LOLZ!

Blogger Were-Puppy July 13, 2016 1:25 PM  

@35 Cluebat Vanexodar

Philly cab drivers are threating a strike during the Dem convention. I propose in the event of a strike: an operation to hinder transport. Making Uber connections difficult would be one way.
---

That is interesting. I was thinking about the Repub convention. There is suppose to be a lot of bikers and truckers going. We also know the lefties bus in their protesters.

What if the truckers and bikers found those buses on the way, and tied them up in thick traffic?

Blogger Were-Puppy July 13, 2016 1:32 PM  

@64 krymneth

I wonder how slanted the polls will be by late October. "In this poll of 87% Democratic voters, Hillary is beating that bignasty Trump 55-43! Relax, victory is assured!"
----

Won't it be funny if they get into those epic Saddam Hussein style numbers - 99.996% favorability

Anonymous TexasSkeptic July 13, 2016 1:32 PM  

The failure to indict gives Hillary what she wants. She can now drop out over health issues and to spend time with her grandchild, without concerns about an indictment.

Biden gets the nod, adds Warren. Now you have a clean ticket that the socially liberal/fiscally conservative can get behind, and Hillary and Bill can keep making money.

The reason Hillary stayed in this long was to get the threat of indictment cleared. She was safe while running. Now that she's safe, she can bow out. Warren covers the woman's ticket and the progressives. Biden is a doofus, but with much better favorability than Trump. Third Obama term becomes the push as Helicopter money keeps the stock market high through the election.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan July 13, 2016 1:34 PM  

I hope the Left ups the use of "racist" while BLM has center stage

Blogger Ingot9455 July 13, 2016 1:36 PM  

The three presidential debates have been scheduled. They are the subject of negotiations between the campaigns of both parties. So for Hillary to duck out of a debate now would be big big big.

Anonymous andon July 13, 2016 1:37 PM  

what about Utah?

damn mormons

Anonymous Genericviews July 13, 2016 1:38 PM  

Webb would also be a great insurance policy for Trump to survive all four years.

HA! Webb would kill him himself. He has a history of not keeping track of his guns and he has a history of hubris that he can tell himself he did it for the good of the country (then pardon himself for the murder).

Blogger Shimshon July 13, 2016 1:38 PM  

Hillary Clinton is simply the most tone-deaf candidate ever.

By the way, Lew Rockwell also called the election for Trump last year, around September, I think. That was when I first started taking Candidate Trump seriously.

Blogger James Dixon July 13, 2016 1:41 PM  

> The failure to indict gives Hillary what she wants. She can now drop out over health issues and to spend time with her grandchild, without concerns about an indictment.

The Lizard Queen? Drop out? What have you been smoking?

Blogger David-2 July 13, 2016 1:43 PM  

A few days ago Scott Adams pointed out that Hillary was winning the persuasion wars by pinning "racist" onto Trump, even though there was no evidence of it. So I think Trump needs to respond to that. But other than that: Just act reasonable. Hillary is _really unlikeable_.

Anonymous BGKB July 13, 2016 1:47 PM  

All locations with cities known for voter fraud strong enough to pull the entire state.

Do you know what else was happening during that time to influence polls?

HilLIARy siding with BLM on dead cops?

I expect he'll take the left's planned riots and violence next week and turn it as a positive then immediately go 8000 non working democrats to be bussed into the RNC. Those biker security will look be kicking ass like this golden dawn guy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfUolJ3MVpI

Philly cab drivers are threating a strike during the Dem convention.

Their SEPTA-SEPTIC system has hundreds of its newest cars out of service because of shoddy welding from the affirmative action bidder. It says here even white people can't fix them. http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/Borrowed-Cars-Giving-SEPTA-1700-More-Seats-Monday-386040501.html

What if the truckers and bikers found those buses on the way, and tied them up in thick traffic?

Even better a box of thumbtacs when the busses are in the middle of a forested area.

The Lizard Queen? Drop out? What have you been smoking?

She will clutch onto power like Ginsberg with her vibrating bat.

Anonymous andon July 13, 2016 1:48 PM  

23. Blogger dh July 13, 2016 12:02 PM
Stick to things you know VD. Like fiction, science, etc. Politics is not your thing.

My best prediction: Clinton 307 EV, Trump 231 EV


yes i'm impressed when some random dh on the internet offers his opinion. matter fact im headin for Vegas right now

Blogger Robert Divinity July 13, 2016 1:51 PM  

Even with Clinton's sleaze oozing left and right, absolutely none of the cucks who opposed Trump would be this well-positioned yet. Even Cabana Boy and Preacher Cuban would be behind, possibly by double digits.

Adams largely is right. Trump does need the double-standard "justice" Clinton received along with her lying and corruption at every turn, though.

Good news.

Blogger Josh July 13, 2016 1:54 PM  

Nerd god (((nate silver))):

Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538
But nat'l polls haven't shown too much tightening (people are guilty of cherry-picking those a bit). Clinton up ~5%. http://53eig.ht/29vlkLI


52

59

Nate Silver
3h3 hours ago
Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538
Yes, those Quinnipiac polls have been Republican-leaning. Our model accounts for that. They're bad for Clinton nevertheless.


66

89

Nate Silver
3h3 hours ago
Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538
Pretty sharp uptick for Trump in our forecast, after this morning's polling. Chances up to 27% in polls-only model. http://53eig.ht/29fvWfn

Blogger Josh July 13, 2016 1:54 PM  

Nerd god (((nate silver))):

Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538
But nat'l polls haven't shown too much tightening (people are guilty of cherry-picking those a bit). Clinton up ~5%. http://53eig.ht/29vlkLI


52

59

Nate Silver
3h3 hours ago
Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538
Yes, those Quinnipiac polls have been Republican-leaning. Our model accounts for that. They're bad for Clinton nevertheless.


66

89

Nate Silver
3h3 hours ago
Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538
Pretty sharp uptick for Trump in our forecast, after this morning's polling. Chances up to 27% in polls-only model. http://53eig.ht/29fvWfn

Blogger Sheila4g July 13, 2016 1:56 PM  

I know Trump is a gamble; I agree he's an FU to the uniparty. I realize the limitations and push back he will face if he truly tries to implement many of his policies. I have no illusions he's a perfect candidate. However, the VP pick is not merely this obscene, outdated idea of "balancing the ticket." It gives that person a huge leg up for a follow-on campaign to become president in his turn. Gingrich, Pence, and almost everyone else mentioned is an open borders, standard GOP shill, and I just will not hold my nose and vote for a "ticket" that includes any of them. So my best wishes to Trump, but if he goes normie on his VP pick, I'm staying home. Now you can all pile on about how unrealistic I am, or how not voting gives me no right to criticize, etc.

Blogger Josh July 13, 2016 1:58 PM  

yes i'm impressed when some random dh on the internet offers his opinion. matter fact im headin for Vegas right now

Freaking noobs don't know who dh is...

Blogger Robert Divinity July 13, 2016 1:59 PM  

Just get ready to get out on the street and make sure that the mandate of the voters is carried out. There will be shenanigans but when push comes to shove, the other side will cave.

Now I see why there was a glut of Zombie games the last couple of years...we are now prepared to fight when the dead rise and start to vote in November.


Don't discount anything, including a military coup, which Hayden already has sort of intimated. Private gun ownership and the prospect of blood flowing through the streets of gated communities and ghettoes alike might prevent it. The overlords will try to overturn the election until it is obvious mayhem will ensue. Even then, don't underestimate their stupidity, ruthlessness and evil.

Blogger Cail Corishev July 13, 2016 2:00 PM  

Hillary Clinton is simply the most tone-deaf candidate ever.

She also has none of her husband's ability to tack to the center and look less radical than she is. But hey, that doesn't matter, because Trump's negatives or something.

It's funny how we keep hearing that Trump is one decision, one offhand remark away from blowing this thing, but we never hear that about Hillary.

Anonymous #8601 Jean Valjean July 13, 2016 2:03 PM  

@27 Lowercaseb - every one of us is a closet racist.

I fought against my inner-racist for many years. But I couldn't lie to myself or the world any longer. Now I let it all hang out.

@62 Nigel - I thought you were lying- but it seems to be true! Yes!

Nigel will certainly be a highlight of the convention. Next to Milo, of course!

This is shaping up to be the best convention in the history of the GOP.

Blogger Alexander July 13, 2016 2:04 PM  

Eh, is it though?

Biden - no, though he probably regrets this now.
Cheyney - no.
Gore - yes, but lost.
Quayle - no
Bush I - yes, and won.
Mondale - yes, but trololololol
Rockefeller - no
Ford - yes, but due to impeachment, didn't win his own election.

So for a VP to go on to win after being President we've got... Bush I, and then we have to go back as far as LBJ and he effectively had a full term before he had to run for the job.

A normie I can tolerate in the VP slot, provided they are not actively sabotaging Trump: and I think we've been given a gift as to who revealed their hands on that front.

Now if Trump went full in on a cuck or an affirmative action, that would give me pause. But a bland pick-a-governor type of GOPe? Meh, who cares, Trump train continues forward.

Anonymous andon July 13, 2016 2:05 PM  

83. Blogger Josh July 13, 2016 1:54 PM
Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538
Pretty sharp uptick for Trump in our forecast, after this morning's polling. Chances up to 27% in polls-only model.


yeah, the guru. they trot him out with his 27% so when the left steals it they can say "I told you so"

Blogger Krul July 13, 2016 2:06 PM  

Cail Corishev wrote:It's funny how we keep hearing that Trump is one decision, one offhand remark away from blowing this thing, but we never hear that about Hillary.

Well, considering his strategy thus far has been to be as safe and conventional as possible, and to never say anything potentially offensive, maybe there's something to it.

Anonymous Cheddarman July 13, 2016 2:08 PM  

andon wrote:what about Utah?

damn mormons


All Trump has to do is act presidential, just like he has been doing the last month, and he will win the Mormon vote. The Later Day Saints would never vote for a beast (dragon, medusa, harpie, serpent, she-goblin, take your pick) like Hillary.

Anonymous andon July 13, 2016 2:09 PM  

86. Blogger Josh July 13, 2016 1:58 PM
yes i'm impressed when some random dh on the internet offers his opinion. matter fact im headin for Vegas right now

Freaking noobs don't know who dh is...


I don't either

Anonymous andon July 13, 2016 2:13 PM  

im surprised silver didn't say:

Pretty sharp uptick, chances are up to 2% now for Trump

Blogger tz July 13, 2016 2:13 PM  

There are parallels to Indiana's primary.
The governor praised Trump but sotto voce said he was voting for Cruz.
Comey gave an hour-long verbal indictment, then declined to recommend indictment for Hillary.
Cruz enlisted Carly, Bern-out endorsed Hillary.
Meanwhile, Philly seems to be planning on everyone going on strike, BLM protesting, a repeat of the MOVE disaster (proto Branch Davidian Waco), and many more wonderful things to do during the DNC convention. Philly goes Liberty Bell-icose.

Cleveland should be almost as much "fun".

* Thanks for the H/T on the Scott Adams' column.

But Hillary is truly a horrid candidate. She is actually worse than the GOP corpservatives and cuckservatives the party has been serving up. While one can hold their nose and vote for your side, when it requires a gas-mask, it will fail.

Thought: What happened to Ted Cruz Big Data strategy? That was touted as the path to victory. He'd target most accurately. And fizzled. Is Hillary going to use it?

Scott Adams has a point - Trump has not merely created a brash persona, that is a base from which he can rise from. He can now appear empathetic, presidential, competent just by not pushing things, and #CorruptHillary from a calm, competent candidate will stick like a tattoo.

Conversely, Hillary can fall further and there are few things she can do to rise. She is in Dole's "I'm not Trump" slot. She has no policy, no center, or as was said in an earlier election, "There's no there there".

Aside: did anyone else see the story about Jeb!s interview. The Dynasty in its Dotage.

It is now full polarization between the Globalist establishment and the Nationalists.

If Paul Ryan gets primary-ed, I'll say 47 states minimum for Trump. A Trumpocalypse for the establishment.

Aside: Speaking of dotage, Ruthie has been speaking out showing the judiciary is corrupt - she should just retire now as when Trump is president she will have to recuse herself on everything anyway, and Trump will pack the court with Scalia clones. That, in itself, is sufficient reason - and I do believe Trump will follow through, where I was unsure about Cruz not appointing more stealth Roberts.

Blogger Alexander July 13, 2016 2:14 PM  

Oh if only they didn't know who "Nate" was, and mocked him as some guy on the internet. It's been too long since I've seen the word 'sugartits' on this blog.

Blogger Salt July 13, 2016 2:15 PM  

Remember, you heard predictions of a Trumpslide here first.

OMG, he's gonna lose.

Blogger Cicatrizatic July 13, 2016 2:16 PM  

Here is Quinnipiac in late June of 2012:

Florida: Obama +4
Ohio: Obama +9
Pennsylvania: Obama +6

Blogger Alexander July 13, 2016 2:17 PM  

@98

No! We heard it from Ann Coulter first, or Scott Adams, or your own intuition, or some guy in a tin foil hat!

Because yeah, when it comes to presidential predictions, #NeverVox

Blogger Robert Divinity July 13, 2016 2:21 PM  

Pretty sharp uptick for Trump in our forecast, after this morning's polling. Chances up to 27% in polls-only model.

Silver is totally emblematic of a very Beltway/Manhattan phenomenon: chronically wrong people who got something right once and continue to coast on their sole success. He will be Dick Morris-lite come November.

Anonymous #8601 Jean Valjean July 13, 2016 2:25 PM  

With the nationalist wave that's sweeping the world, it makes predictions quite easy. And the fact that this wave continues to be underestimated makes for some very profitable opportunities.

Betting on Brexit and Trump are just the start.

Anonymous JCB July 13, 2016 2:29 PM  

I think the only states that Hillary can absolutely, 100% count on are Hawaii and D.C. because both are minority-majority. The corruption is just too naked. That doesn't mean she won't win places like CA, IL, and MD but I honestly think they are in play - CA elected Arnold not too long ago on a populist, anti-corrption wave. I won't be surprised if she pulls out of the debates under cover of not wanting to engage with a misogynist or some such nonsense. There's just no way for her to survive them intact.

Blogger Alexander July 13, 2016 2:40 PM  

Ye of little faith.

Even if we have a Yuge year where Washington, Oregon, New Jersey, New York, Wisconsin, Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont are all in play...

... Hillary can still safely bank on Minnesota.

Blogger David The Good July 13, 2016 2:42 PM  

I'm convinced Florida will go Trump.

Anonymous andon July 13, 2016 2:42 PM  

I doubt silver was complaining about the reuters poll being slanted

Blogger szopen July 13, 2016 2:43 PM  

hmmm... I am no American, but I am very interested in this election. I am unqualified to say who has more chances; however, here are three things:

On facebook, those my liberal friends who still has not unfriend me were for months posting articles, posts and rants about how Trumop is unelecteable, awful and whatnot. They are very silent during last few weeks.

Second thing: I try to imagine how they and their ilk will feel after Trump will win (assuming VD/Scott/commenters here are right). I think there is a decent chance that there will be _massive_ demonstrations, violence and calls for repeating elections and civil disobedience uncomparable to anything seen in last two decades. I do not think republicans ever had a candidate which is _this much_ hated, viscerally hated by american liberals. This won't actually mean much, but those spasms will be very interesting to watch from here, especially when I imagine the articles which will be written by our own "lemmings" ie poor liberal copies.

And then there is a third thing; ignoring US' POV, and from point of view of my own country, Trump is actually quite poor candidate for our interests (not that you should care much, I just ponder about own personal feelings in this "safe space" :D).

Should I root for him because I can't wait the screams of all so called elites all over America, Europe and my country, or root for Hilary because, judging from their previous actions, she will be marginally better for my country security? Tough choice.

Anonymous SciVo July 13, 2016 2:43 PM  

Cail Corishev wrote:She also has none of her husband's ability to tack to the center and look less radical than she is. But hey, that doesn't matter, because Trump's negatives or something.

Hillary's idea of "compromise" is to say that maybe abortion isn't okay on the due date. No, really. I'm serious. Hardly anyone has tried to pin her down on this, and that was the best she could do, even with a friendly interviewer.

It hasn't received near enough press, but she and DNC chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz are both no-limits abortion radicals. They're so far out of the mainstream they can't even see it, and since they're effectively the leaders of the Democrat party, every single downticket Democrat deserves to be tarred with that baby-killer brush.

Anonymous krymneth July 13, 2016 2:46 PM  

Excuses of the form "I won't do the debate because Trump is too ADJECTIVE" are not available to her. They all get countered by "She wants to face our enemies but she can't even face me? Well, her loss, tune in to the debates next week at 8pm where I will monologue for an hour about why you should vote for me and not the empty podium."

Her least bad option is by far claiming a health issue... and that's only the least bad because it may save some face, but still counts against electing her President.

There's really no way out of debates for her. I wouldn't even be surprised she's legitimately dreading the debates, and we'll start to see some subconscious avoidance start happening, as Scott Adams has speculated.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash July 13, 2016 2:52 PM  

tz wrote:Aside: did anyone else see the story about Jeb!s interview. The Dynasty in its Dotage.

The one where he blamed Trump on....


...wait for it....


the Pope?

Anonymous Legion of Trump July 13, 2016 2:53 PM  


Should I root for him because I can't wait the screams of all so called elites all over America, Europe and my country, or root for Hilary because, judging from their previous actions, she will be marginally better for my country security?


We don’t care.

Anonymous Legion of Trump July 13, 2016 2:54 PM  


Should I root for him because I can't wait the screams of all so called elites all over America, Europe and my country, or root for Hilary because, judging from their previous actions, she will be marginally better for my country security?


We don’t care.

Anonymous Legion of Trump July 13, 2016 2:55 PM  


Should I root for him because I can't wait the screams of all so called elites all over America, Europe and my country, or root for Hilary because, judging from their previous actions, she will be marginally better for my country security?


We don’t care.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash July 13, 2016 2:56 PM  

szopen wrote:And then there is a third thing; ignoring US' POV, and from point of view of my own country, Trump is actually quite poor candidate for our interests (not that you should care much, I just ponder about own personal feelings in this "safe space" :D).



Could you elaborate on this? Is it merely because Trump has declared he has no interest in threatening Russia?
Thanks

Blogger James Dixon July 13, 2016 2:57 PM  

> Thought: What happened to Ted Cruz Big Data strategy? That was touted as the path to victory.

I thought that was tried by Romney. The program crashed. Rumor has it that enemy action was involved, but we'll probably never know.

> I do not think republicans ever had a candidate which is _this much_ hated, viscerally hated by american liberals.

You're obviously too young to remember Reagan or Nixon.

Anonymous andon July 13, 2016 3:01 PM  

107. Blogger szopen July 13, 2016 2:43 PM

Should I root for him because I can't wait the screams of all so called elites all over America, Europe and my country, or root for Hilary because, judging from their previous actions, she will be marginally better for my country security? Tough choice.


what country do you live in that Hilary would be better for your security? because it sounds like she wants to continue the neocon plan of invading here and there and everywhere

Blogger dh July 13, 2016 3:03 PM  

Nate Silver's biggest problem is he can't let the math be the math. On top of the math, he then computes some analysis, which is typically his spin.

The data clearly showed Trump taking the nomination. But it was deeply, deeply, deeply against the conventional wisdom. So time and again, Silver disregarded what the math said months before the cake was baked, and added in enough analysis, factors, and "wisdom" to make this prediction wrong, meaningless, and embarrassing.

The most accurate predictor of the Presidential election is to examine state-based polling, project a state winner repeatedly, adjusting the vote totals along the range of possibilities according to the confidence interval of the poll, average the results, and project a state-level winner. Take the electoral vote totals from each state, add up, and surmise the winner.

This will correctly answer, to a high statistical probability, the outcome of the election. There are things that could cause the prediction to be wrong, namely:

1. Events that push undecideds to break in a way that is atypical and not predicted by polls. Undecideds have typically broken in close correlation to party identification, with those not claiming a party preference breaking roughly at the level of national polling (which is the only value to national polling).

2. Debate performances. For whatever reason, Americans still watch and respond to the debates. Mitt Romney was closest to the Presidency when he was roundly seen as destroying Pres. Obama during the 1st debate of the 2012.

3. Scandal. For whatever reason, Americans still respond to scandals involving candidates. It's one of our worst qualities, I've found.

Hopefully the poll un-skewerers of 2012 will sit this one out. This election comes down to Sec. Clinton winning this in a walk-off, and focusing on down ticket races by October. To me, the much more interesting questions are what the Senate will look like and what the House will look like. Once the primaries are over in late August, I will be following that much closer than the Presidential election.

With regards to VD predicting the Brexit vote, it was a well done prediction. It was especially well done given that the powers that be in Britain really didn't want the numbers floating around. Americans obsession with national polling numbers would match well with national plebiscites. Given the power of the modern American presidency I think it would be interesting to see us revert to direct election of nearly dictatorial executive.

Blogger dh July 13, 2016 3:05 PM  

I thought that was tried by Romney. The program crashed. Rumor has it that enemy action was involved, but we'll probably never know.

Mittens hired data scientists that were mostly Asian, from India and around there. They all believe in an iterative model, where you work on something again and again and eventually it gets stable. If Romney had 40 election days, by the 41st or 42nd that thing would have been humming.

Pres. Obama hired Blue State digital, a team of IT professionals who follow the dictator-cum-God model popularized by Jobs and Bezos. His election day operation didn't crash.

Blogger dh July 13, 2016 3:06 PM  

I thought that was tried by Romney. The program crashed. Rumor has it that enemy action was involved, but we'll probably never know.

Mittens hired data scientists that were mostly Asian, from India and around there. They all believe in an iterative model, where you work on something again and again and eventually it gets stable. If Romney had 40 election days, by the 41st or 42nd that thing would have been humming.

Pres. Obama hired Blue State digital, a team of IT professionals who follow the dictator-cum-God model popularized by Jobs and Bezos. His election day operation didn't crash.

Anonymous #8601 Jean Valjean July 13, 2016 3:10 PM  

Regarding debates, expectations are crucial. If Trump is expected to crush Hillary in the debates, all she has to do is hold her own to be considered the winner. Heck, if she doesn't collapse on stage it will be considered a win.

Trump needs to dampen expectations ahead of any debate.

Anonymous SciVo July 13, 2016 3:11 PM  

szopen wrote:And then there is a third thing; ignoring US' POV, and from point of view of my own country, Trump is actually quite poor candidate for our interests (not that you should care much, I just ponder about own personal feelings in this "safe space" :D).

Should I root for him because I can't wait the screams of all so called elites all over America, Europe and my country, or root for Hilary because, judging from their previous actions, she will be marginally better for my country security? Tough choice.


Where are you? Poland?

I expect that Trump would support other countries doing what's in the best interest of their people, as long as it isn't at our expense. In contrast, the Clintons have consistently meddled in the internal affairs of other countries to the detriment of Christians in Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya, Syria, and beyond. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary favors using the military to force open Poland's borders to the Muslim immivaders; that would be just like her.

Anonymous andon July 13, 2016 3:14 PM  

116. Blogger dh July 13, 2016 3:03 PM

Given the (usurped) power of the modern American presidency I think it would be interesting to see us revert to direct election of nearly dictatorial executive.


or maybe Trump will reverse all the illegal executive orders and cede the power back to Congress, where it belongs.

Blogger szopen July 13, 2016 3:16 PM  

@112
I know. I wrote "not that you should care".

@113 Snidely Whiplash
I would disagree with the choice of your words, but basically, yes. Trump is isolationist. Recently we had NATO summit where USA confirmed its obligations and promised quite a lot of things. Would Trump uphold those obligations? I do not say anything about US interests, whether taking those obligations was good for US or not; merely, we think it is good for us that US took those obligations. I would not condemn Trump, if he would say "f* it, you are on your own, there is no interest for USA to defend you", after all, he would have duty only twoards his own citizens. But I hope you understand my point of view - not that you care about it, just that you understand it.

Russia many times openly showed it considers us her sphere of influence. It also many times acted against our interests, sometimes things with unbelieveable pettiness. Moreover, we do not really trust Russia. Once again, i do not try to convince you about anything; i am simply saying about interests of my own country as I see them. From our point of view, there is no such thing as "aggravating problems" with Russia, because it seems that whatever we do, has absolutely no relation to how Russia acts towards us.

Anonymous SciVo July 13, 2016 3:19 PM  

#8601 Jean Valjean wrote:Regarding debates, expectations are crucial. If Trump is expected to crush Hillary in the debates, all she has to do is hold her own to be considered the winner. Heck, if she doesn't collapse on stage it will be considered a win.

Trump needs to dampen expectations ahead of any debate.


The nebulous concept of "debate winner" is irrelevant. Trump is in a very good position, because confirmation bias is in his favor on what will make a difference for the election.

Expectations that Hillary will lose her cool and maybe even collapse will cause any sign of temper or ill health to be examined in the worst possible light. Expectations that Trump is light on policy will most likely 1. be blown away and 2. not matter in November anyway.

Blogger Teri July 13, 2016 3:21 PM  

Folks forget that hatred of Nixon was handed down within families.

After watching the Decision Desk folks, I really don't think you can see pure analysis. They wanted Cruz to win and they looked at the data from that point of view. Anyone watching the folks lining up for hours to get see Trump could have predicted the result.

Blogger Teri July 13, 2016 3:23 PM  

one other thing about predictions: There will be a stealth Trump vote. There are real consequences for declaring yourself to be a Trump voter, especially if you are a minority. People will lie about it, or say they are undecided. There's no downside to saying you are a Hillary supporter, so whatever numbers are reported are probably accurate.

Blogger Erynne July 13, 2016 3:26 PM  

I'm interested to see if the predictions from the alt-right are more accurate than the predictions from fivethirtyeight, a website that forecasts based on polls-only. Currently, they have Clinton with a chance at winning at 70.9% vs. 29.2% for Trump.

Anonymous SciVo July 13, 2016 3:30 PM  

krymneth wrote:Besides, we're not used to our (R)s having even tiny amount of balls. My guess on what happens if Hillary tries to not have a debate is Trump just schedules one anyhow.

I bet Gary Johnson and Jill Stein would jump at the chance to get in front of a national audience for free, with or without Hillary.

Anonymous andon July 13, 2016 3:35 PM  

126. Blogger Erynne July 13, 2016 3:26 PM
I'm interested to see if the predictions from the alt-right are more accurate than the predictions from fivethirtyeight, a website that forecasts based on polls-only. Currently, they have Clinton with a chance at winning at 70.9% vs. 29.2% for Trump.


lol, is that what he claims?

Blogger szopen July 13, 2016 3:36 PM  

@120 SciVo
I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary favors using the military to force open Poland's borders to the Muslim immivaders; that would be just like her.
USA invading NATO and EU member? That would be something.
Though, OTOH, Hillary saying that Poland won't get anything unless we accept bunch of poor African half-drowned kids ('cause who would be so unreasonable and hateful to not accept those) would be somewhat more real possibility.

Blogger Physics Geek July 13, 2016 3:46 PM  

Late last summer, I said Trump would almost certainly win the GOP nomination for two reasons:

1) I can read/interpret numbers very well
2) I understand human nature, which people like Silver pretend doesn't exit.

So I'm going to say that Trump is behind the 8-ball, electorally speaking. He won't win Virginia because NOVA has become infested with federal workers who will NOT vote to remove the government teat from their mouths. Colorado and Nevada are ever worse, in my estimation. However, he does have a decent chance at OH, PA and FL. If he wins those, it would be enough. I'll toss IA into the mix as well.

For the record, CA, NY and NJ are not in play. Yes, Trump will likely pull in a decent number of previously Democrat-voting union members (they like him), but those votes will be more than offset by the multitude of leftist hippies.

Yes, I'm swimming against popular opinion here, but I'm okay with that. I would like nothing more than to see Hillary go down in flames this November. If that happens, I will gladly take all of the mockery. I'll even participate in it.

Tangentially related: I participated in a "beat Larry Sabato" during the 2014 midterms. I handily defeated him and everyone else by correctly predicting 42/43 races from across the country. That said, voters in presidential elections differ a great deal from voters in midterm elections. I've tried to take that into account, but it's entirely possible that I'm way off base here. We'll find out in just a few months.

Blogger dh July 13, 2016 3:49 PM  

126. Blogger Erynne July 13, 2016 3:26 PM
I'm interested to see if the predictions from the alt-right are more accurate than the predictions from fivethirtyeight, a website that forecasts based on polls-only. Currently, they have Clinton with a chance at winning at 70.9% vs. 29.2% for Trump.

lol, is that what he claims?


No, not really. He has a polls-only and polls-plus analysis number on his EV predictor page.

Anonymous Napoleon 12pdr July 13, 2016 3:54 PM  

I put very little faith in polls at this point.

What I think is likely:

1. Significant civil unrest at the conventions. This seems to have a reliable pro-Trump effect.

2. Trump will hammer Hillary on the trust issue.

3. Trump will hammer Hillary mercilessly in the debates. This could backfire...or eliminate her. Hillary is certain to play the, "Nasty Donald was mean to me! You can't criticize me because I'm a womyn!" card. Trump MUST immediately counterpunch with the argument that this proves her weakness.

4. It's a two-front war against Hillary and her Propaganda Press allies. Trump has been very good about painting them as two sides of the same crooked coin. He'll keep doing this.

5. Trump needs to stay focused. Shorter speeches, sound Presidential, build people's confidence.

Anonymous Random Angeleno July 13, 2016 3:57 PM  

Will just say it ain't over til it's over. One thing the Dems do have in their pockets is they control the vote counting mechanisms in most if not all of the swing states and have been accused in the past of using at least some of it to their benefit. Says here they'll go all out cheating in those swing states this fall as the stakes have never been higher for them.

A commenter above mentioned a possible exit for Hillary in favor of a Biden-Warren ticket. That could energize the Democrat base like nothing else, not even Sanders. Think what it would be to replace obnoxious Hillary with a far more likable pair. I think that has to be watched out for.

Anonymous BGKB July 13, 2016 4:12 PM  

or maybe Trump will reverse all the illegal executive orders and cede the power back to Congress, where it belongs

He needs to run counter. He needs to tell the IRS they have to audit one shitlib org for every conservative org they audited. Don't fall for the left steals data, has peon slapped on wrist when caught but they keep the data like the Battleground Texas voter fraud that got busted, they need to lose their ill gotten benefits.

Blogger James Dixon July 13, 2016 4:23 PM  

> There's no downside to saying you are a Hillary supporter, so whatever numbers are reported are probably accurate.

But there is an upside: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hookers-4-hillary-clinton_us_56c37606e4b0b40245c81c87

Blogger Snidely Whiplash July 13, 2016 4:35 PM  

dh wrote:This election comes down to Sec. Clinton winning this in a walk-off, and focusing on down ticket races by October.
Simply not going to happen. Hillary will be forced to actually engage. She hasn't so far.
How would your analysis have looked for Reagan in July of 1980?

Blogger lowercaseb July 13, 2016 4:38 PM  

James Dixon wrote:> There's no downside to saying you are a Hillary supporter, so whatever numbers are reported are probably accurate.

But there is an upside: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hookers-4-hillary-clinton_us_56c37606e4b0b40245c81c87


I don't think the US has enough Mercury to treat the aftereffects of those trysts...

Blogger YIH July 13, 2016 4:50 PM  

Like @16. Chris Han, I say it's going to be close. Maybe a 2000-like overtime game. That's when it becomes ''Can Team Trump put it over the line in sudden death?'' A 50-50 Supreme Court is going to make that tougher, plus we already know Team Lizard Queen is going to cheat every possible way - just like Gore did.
The only way it could be 'a slam dunk' for Trump would be for Hillary to have a medical incident so severe it brings into question her fitness for Prez to everybody.
Examples would be a major heart attack, or more likely, a stroke as severe as what Dick Clark had.
Enough to make even her supporters say ''Yeah, but what could she do if dead or incapacitated?''

Blogger Human Animal July 13, 2016 4:51 PM  

Let's hope Trump is neck and neck to the last.

Crooked Hillary clearly has people who can shoot straight looking out for her career. If it's a sure lose versus a gamble on a martyred Trump? The bastards behind the barbells might try their luck.

Anonymous BluePony July 13, 2016 5:00 PM  

I converted another person to Trump thanks to Clinton's "it's all white people's fault" tweet after Dallas. That had to have a major effect.

They keep trotting out "white people need to listen up and change things" like we all have the keys to the castle. They cry that 100% of blacks have no power. Yeah, well, neither do 99.9% of the whites.

One BLM fool said whites need to quit their jobs so blacks can have them. Cool, so I can retire? Here, take my job. By the way, you know how to design spacecraft communication systems intended for operation in deep space, right? Right? Ah, I'm sure you'll pick it up as you go.

OpenID frankluke July 13, 2016 5:00 PM  

There's still a group trying to get the RNC rules committee to unbind the delegates on the first vote. They have a list of contact information and are urging their supporters to contact the committee and ignore the will of the people.

I had the thought that some here might want to use their information to remind them that the people have spoken.

Blogger YIH July 13, 2016 5:12 PM  

@46 Great Again:
And fortunately, the immigrants in Florida (mostly Cubans) have enough first-hand understanding of the failures of socialism to at least be open-minded to Republican candidates.
1. There are more Peurto Ricans in FL than Cubans - it's what made ''the I-4 corridor'' blue.
2. The S. FL Cubans are grandparents now, the only reason Little Marco is GOP because that's the only way he could have won there. Statewide, it's very possible he won't win re-election.

Blogger Josh July 13, 2016 5:31 PM  

The data clearly showed Trump taking the nomination. But it was deeply, deeply, deeply against the conventional wisdom. So time and again, Silver disregarded what the math said months before the cake was baked, and added in enough analysis, factors, and "wisdom" to make this prediction wrong, meaningless, and embarrassing.

To be fair to Nate and 538, once they had polling data to work with, their primary election forecast got 90% of the primaries right.

Anonymous andon July 13, 2016 5:59 PM  

133. Anonymous BGKB July 13, 2016 4:12 PM
or maybe Trump will reverse all the illegal executive orders and cede the power back to Congress, where it belongs

He needs to run counter. He needs to tell the IRS they have to audit one shitlib org for every conservative org they audited. Don't fall for the left steals data, has peon slapped on wrist when caught but they keep the data like the Battleground Texas voter fraud that got busted, they need to lose their ill gotten benefits.


that's not enough though. higher ups in the IRS have broken the trust. they need to go to jail

Anonymous Carbon blob July 13, 2016 6:23 PM  

Can't wait for Trump to play the Putin blackmail card.

Blogger Aeoli Pera July 13, 2016 6:25 PM  

If Clinton cries at one of the debates I will muster up a boner to honor the event. I have spoken.

Anonymous andon July 13, 2016 6:30 PM  

hehe Trump:



Donald J. Trump Verified account 
‏@realDonaldTrump
#CrookedHillary is outspending me by a combined 31 to 1 in Florida, Ohio, & Pennsylvania. I haven't started yet!


Blogger weka July 13, 2016 6:38 PM  

Bitch will move with Ginzberg and Huma to Queenstown. That is only four hours away. Bugger

Anonymous Karl Rove, Big Mister Big Data July 13, 2016 6:48 PM  

> Thought: What happened to Ted Cruz Big Data strategy? That was touted as the path to victory.

I thought that was tried by Romney. The program crashed. Rumor has it that enemy action was involved, but we'll probably never know.

The real problem obviously was the Big Data was too big for the puny computers the GOP could afford. Otherwise the strategy was flawless. Flawless! Drawn up by Top Men!

Top Men!

Anonymous VFM 8859 July 13, 2016 7:01 PM  

Trump could choose Satan for VP and that still wouldn't be sufficient for me to vote for the Hag.

Blogger James Dixon July 13, 2016 7:02 PM  

> There's still a group trying to get the RNC rules committee to unbind the delegates on the first vote.

The can try all the want. It would be political suicide for the delegates and they know it.

Anonymous VFM 8859 July 13, 2016 7:05 PM  

I'd buy it and touch myself while watching.

Anonymous A Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents July 13, 2016 7:07 PM  

> There's still a group trying to get the RNC rules committee to unbind the delegates on the first vote.

Not just political suicide for the delegates as James Dixon said, either, it would pretty much drive a stake into the GOP outside of the beltway / cuckservative branches. Even the GOPe isn’t that stupid, they saw what happened to the ¡Jeb! mini-me campaign.

Anonymous Daedalus Mugged July 13, 2016 7:51 PM  

Whether Trump carries PA is entirely up to Trump's actions and discipline, and will be known before election night. No Fraud=Trump Win. Unlimited Fraud=Trump loss. PA has not had a no or even low fraud election in decades. We will have a very good idea if we will have a Yuge celebration on election night based on whether and how the RNC, under Trump's control shortly, deals with the infamous 'RNC settlement decree' where by the cucks basically agreed to not do things that democrats don't like, such as put Repub election monitors in minority districts in West Philly. If Trump fights in the trenches, and builds the organizational infrastructure to do it, he can control the magnitude of fraud down to a low level, and walk away with PA's 20 in the electoral collage. The R's have never had the testicular fortitude to fight though. If he doesn't do the legal and infrastructure building to stop it, the D's will once again just ramp fraud to 100% D 0% R with 100% turnout at as many precincts as they need to to keep PA in Hillary's column. Historically, D's kept the fraud to the level they needed that had some degree of plausible deniability (often, 80% turnout in a precinct whose demographics point towards a materially lower than national average 50% turnout) but last election D's got scared of losing PA and ramped the fraud all the way to 100% turnout with 100% voting for Obama in a whole swaths of west Philly...and not only got away with it, weren't even really challenged by the cucks. And if the D's are not stopped, they will do it again.

Anonymous BGKB July 13, 2016 7:54 PM  

Bitch will move with Ginzberg and Huma to Queenstown. That is only four hours away. Bugger

It would be a shame if someone feed all 3 to the crocs.

I don't think the US has enough Mercury to treat the aftereffects of those trysts...Hookers 4 Hillary

A free extra 1/2 hour or a meal at the whore house? What sort of meals do they serve there crabs?

One BLM fool said whites need to quit their jobs so blacks can have them.

They are so desperate for non Asian minorities that can pass nursing boards they have a program for junkie nurses to keep the ones they have.

Anonymous BGKB July 13, 2016 8:01 PM  

David Duke to run for congress, offers to be VP

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/07/12/david-duke-plans-to-run-for-congress-against-the-republican-who-spoke-to-his-group.html

Anonymous WaterBoy July 13, 2016 8:57 PM  

OT: And in the Nobody Saw THIS One Coming Department....Transgender woman arrested in voyeurism incident at Idaho Target

Blogger JWM in SD July 13, 2016 9:12 PM  

"The failure to indict gives Hillary what she wants. She can now drop out over health issues and to spend time with her grandchild, without concerns about an indictment.

Biden gets the nod, adds Warren. Now you have a clean ticket that the socially liberal/fiscally conservative can get behind, and Hillary and Bill can keep making money.

The reason Hillary stayed in this long was to get the threat of indictment cleared. She was safe while running. Now that she's safe, she can bow out. Warren covers the woman's ticket and the progressives. Biden is a doofus, but with much better favorability than Trump. Third Obama term becomes the push as Helicopter money keeps the stock market high through the election."

I agree that Hitlery stayed in the race primarily to stay out of prison. However, I don't agree that she is in a post-indictment safe-space. The only real safe-space is the oval office at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.. That's why Trump needs to increase security soon.

Blogger EscapeVelocity July 13, 2016 9:15 PM  

Im not sure about a landslide, but Trump was always the best candidate to win the Swing States. And the NeverTrumpers were never a threat to lose Trump, staunch Red States.

Im thinking Trump will win with just over 270 in the electoral college. Maybe 280.

Blogger John Williams July 13, 2016 9:19 PM  

This is the sitzkreig. I can't wait to see DJT campaign against the old hag in force.

Blogger The Other Robot July 13, 2016 10:25 PM  

The one thing that would make a President Hillary more tolerable would be more books by Tom Kratman, oh, and by Castalia House!

Of course, if by some lucky chance she loses in a landslide, well, then more books by Kratman and Castalia house would be icing on the cake.

Blogger The Other Robot July 13, 2016 10:47 PM  

So we have these predictions:

SciVo: I stand by my prediction of Trump 352
DH: My best prediction: Clinton 307 EV, Trump 231 EV
EscapeVelocity: Im thinking Trump will win with just over 270 in the electoral college. Maybe 280.

Blogger Were-Puppy July 13, 2016 11:02 PM  

@108 szopen

I do not think republicans ever had a candidate which is _this much_ hated, viscerally hated by american liberals.
---

Nope, they are always like this.

They used to burn GWB pinatas. They have always been bitter, ugly, nasty people.

Blogger Were-Puppy July 13, 2016 11:04 PM  

@110 krymneth

There's really no way out of debates for her.
--

There is still an out for xer. God let it never happen, but Trump gets wacked at the convention.

Blogger Were-Puppy July 13, 2016 11:06 PM  

@111 Snidely Whiplash

The one where he blamed Trump on....
...wait for it....
the Pope?
---

Senor Jebster blamed the pope for attracting illegals to the border. Which he had previously described as an act of love. He can't even keep his own story straight now :P

Anonymous Mrs. Xerxes July 13, 2016 11:10 PM  

I can't help but feel like this election is the War of Roses all over again... and as such, we haven't even begun to see the subterfuge and intrigue yet on Hillary's part.

Blogger bob k. mando July 13, 2016 11:11 PM  

101. Alexander July 13, 2016 2:17 PM
Because yeah, when it comes to presidential predictions, #NeverVox



remember when Vox swore off of US domestic political predictions ... because he had been out of the country too long and no longer had a feel for the zeitgeist?

yeah, this is probably the single biggest data point against Trump in the last year.



54. VD July 13, 2016 12:50 PM
Like #Brexit?


like, Brexit is US Domestic politics?



95. andon July 13, 2016 2:09 PM
I don't either



dh has been here as long or longer than me. not that this makes him correct. +5 years.

who the hell are you?



108. szopen July 13, 2016 2:43 PM
I do not think republicans ever had a candidate which is _this much_ hated


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPZYxXAbTO8&feature=youtu.be&t=118s


try Abraham Lincoln. i'd say +600,000 dead doesn't make for much love.

heard Rush talking about Hillary trying to compare herself to Abraham Lincoln as a "uniter" today ...

there is no facepalm large enough.



108. szopen July 13, 2016 2:43 PM
or root for Hilary because, judging from their previous actions, she will be marginally better for my country security?



uh, hu-wah?

Hillary was an integral part of nearly setting us to war over Ukraine and instigating civil wars and coups throughout North Africa and the Near East.

and you think she's "good" for the security of other nations?


124. szopen July 13, 2016 3:16 PM
I would not condemn Trump, if he would say "f* it, you are on your own, there is no interest for USA to defend you", after all, he would have duty only twoards his own citizens.



Trump has stated, over and over again, that he has no problem deploying US troops overseas ... so long as the host country helps defray the expense of deployment.

if *you* wish to keep getting a free ride on your self defense bill, leeching off of the American taxpayer / Chinese bond purchaser then, yes, Trump MAY be a change for the worse for you.

IF you're actually going to start ponying up a little bit ( which is not going to be very good for your national budget, although perhaps more cost effective than doing it yourself )
THEN you've got nothing to worry about.

that does amuse me though;
Americans are often characterized as 'cowards' because it's said we're too squeamish about our soldiers lives ...

yet, here we are, maintaining the defense of practically the entire free world ... and not even getting anything for it, beyond more stuff getting imported too us?



128. Erynne July 13, 2016 3:26 PM
I'm interested to see if the predictions from the alt-right are more accurate than the predictions from fivethirtyeight



Nate Silver was one of the morons predicting that Trump had a ceiling of 'x' and could never win the Republican nom. i'm not sure he's made a prediction about Trump which has turned out to be accurate since Donny got in the race.

Anonymous andon July 13, 2016 11:23 PM  

@ #169 - im andon, who the hell are you?

ball licker

Blogger Were-Puppy July 13, 2016 11:27 PM  

Are any of these polls taking into account an almost guaranteed terrorist attack between now and the election?

Or more guaranteed BLM and Mexican riots?

Those are the kind of things that get people who aren't supporting Trump to finally jump on the bandwagon.

Blogger The Other Robot July 13, 2016 11:29 PM  

They used to burn GWB pinyatas.

FIFY. English does not put tildes over letters. They stand alone like the strong independent characters they are!

Anonymous JAG July 13, 2016 11:29 PM  

Nate Silver has been wrong with his Trump predictions something like seven or eight times in a row now. He is completely discredited at this point.

Blogger bob k. mando July 13, 2016 11:30 PM  

170. andon July 13, 2016 11:23 PM



just for the information of the noob turd burglers in the audience, dh is our pet Democrat.

there actually is a reason for some of the things he says.

Blogger Robert Divinity July 13, 2016 11:54 PM  

So we have these predictions:

SciVo: I stand by my prediction of Trump 352
DH: My best prediction: Clinton 307 EV, Trump 231 EV
EscapeVelocity: Im thinking Trump will win with just over 270 in the electoral college. Maybe 280.


Remember the predictions throughout the Cuck-o-Sphere through June that Hillary would beat Trump in a Goldwater-type blow-out and get more than 400 electoral votes? Don't let those get shoved down the memory hole.

My prediction is Trump does win with a floor of 303 electoral votes, which represents Bush's 2004 286 total minus Virginia plus Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The shakiest state in that mix which would make a difference is Florida. Trump also could pick up Nevada and Iowa, the latter might even be probable. He's in the best shape I've seen a Republican since 1988.

Anonymous Jack Amok July 14, 2016 12:12 AM  

Moreover, we do not really trust Russia.

I don't really trust the US, not as long as the likes of Obama or Hillary are in power anyway, and I'm an American.

Anonymous SciVo July 14, 2016 12:25 AM  

The Other Robot wrote:So we have these predictions:

SciVo: I stand by my prediction of Trump 352
DH: My best prediction: Clinton 307 EV, Trump 231 EV
EscapeVelocity: Im thinking Trump will win with just over 270 in the electoral college. Maybe 280.


The funny thing about my Trump victory prediction is that it's very pessimistic, just 50.1% of the popular vote, and a big negative skew in the Latin vote (which polls aren't bearing out). You can follow that link and see for yourself how my assumptions affect the 538 widget, very transparent.

Anonymous VFM 8859 July 14, 2016 12:28 AM  

Root for Trump. The Hagraven has zero US military support. That cannot help your country's security.

And the wails of the damned are always welcome music.

Anonymous VFM 8859 July 14, 2016 12:33 AM  

W. Was pretty thoroughly hated, too. Though that was after being elected. I don't recall Reagan being so hated as much as Carter.

Blogger Akulkis July 14, 2016 12:34 AM  

I can hardly wait for the debates, when Hillary has to face Trump asking her pointed, diredt questions about all of her criminal escapades, rather than the softball questions that she's used to getting from the neutered press who ALWAYS make agreements not to touch too closely on anything embarrassing to her in exchange for access...


It's going to be HILLIARIOUS to see her have an epic melt-down right there on the debate stage.

Blogger Akulkis July 14, 2016 12:35 AM  

She's going to make Admiral "Who am I? What am I doing here?" appear to be a communications genius by comparison.

Blogger Akulkis July 14, 2016 12:37 AM  

She's going to make Admiral "Who am I? What am I doing here?" appear to be a communications genius by comparison.

Anonymous SciVo July 14, 2016 12:56 AM  

I'm doubling down. The conventional wisdom for a long time now has been that abortion is an inherently losing issue, but I don't believe it for a second, because Hillary and the Democrats are so extreme.

Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe the average American male who has taken a college-level philosophy course is totally cool with the idea of a fully-formed infant being killed in the womb, because he's never run a concentration camp -- he's never even owned a fenced and guarded camp capable of housing many Jews -- so clearly, according to logic and reason, he doesn't have any standing to have an opinion on what goes on inside a Nazi camp or a uterus.

Scott Adams is a smart guy and that seems to be his position, so maybe I'm completely wrong about American men having brains and balls.

Maybe I'm wrong. But I would love to see someone, anyone going after the Democrats' extreme views. Was Bill a non-person on his D-day? Was Hillary a non-person on her D-day minus one? Was Chelsea a non-person on her D-day minus two? Was Charlotte a non-person on her D-day minus three? Was Aiden a non-person on his D-day minus four?

Where do Hillary, Debbie, and the other Democrat leaders draw the line? And if they love European socialism so much, why don't they accept the Europeans' lines on when it's too late to feed Moloch?

Blogger Were-Puppy July 14, 2016 1:10 AM  

@181 Akulkis

She's going to make Admiral "Who am I? What am I doing here?" appear to be a communications genius by comparison.
---

I always got a kick out of Ross Perots digging out a chart and saying something like "Lets pop the hood on this and see how it works"

Blogger Ingot9455 July 14, 2016 1:15 AM  

The big danger for Hillary in the debates is not whether 'Trump will destroy her.'

It's that the american public will actually SEE her. She's been hiding, remember, and she gets very little full face time to a majority of people. And when she does it's boring softball junk on small time shows; nothing with lots of audience. This will have huge audience... and no matter how bad the moderator tries to gang up on Trump... Hillary will still have face time for people to hate her.

Anonymous SciVo July 14, 2016 1:16 AM  

VFM 8859 wrote:W. Was pretty thoroughly hated, too. Though that was after being elected. I don't recall Reagan being so hated as much as Carter.

Are you kidding me? I remember reading a sci-fi short story about Ronald Reagan being dismembered and skinned alive, with the weak premise that it was because he caused an economic slump and his body tissues had some value, but anesthesia would ruin them so it had to be straight-up screaming torture... for justice.

Blogger bob k. mando July 14, 2016 1:58 AM  

179. VFM 8859 July 14, 2016 12:33 AM
I don't recall Reagan being so hated as much as Carter.


i don't remember if it was the 80 election, but they were saying that Reagan was going to make your grandparents eat dog food to survive.

fortunately, that would only last until he started a nuclear war with Soviet Russia and destroyed the world.

and Star Wars? what a boondoggle. that dumbass thinks ballistic missiles can be shot down, what a maroon. ballistic missiles are WAY too fast and don't spend enough time in transit, they're impossible to hit ... what's that, the Patriot system can hit missiles that are aloft <30 seconds?

oh.

they also make a perennial accusation that Republicans ( who ended slavery ) are going to put niggers back in chains ...

i can't imagine that didn't get said about him at some time or other.

Anonymous Discard July 14, 2016 2:00 AM  

If Hillary takes a dive, what will all those plutocrats and foreign oligarchs who have been putting money into the Clinton Foundation going to do? Say, "Well, at least you tried"? It may really be do-or-die for her.

Anonymous Jack Amok July 14, 2016 2:56 AM  

i don't remember if it was the 80 election, but they were saying that Reagan was going to make your grandparents eat dog food to survive.

Now that's just revisionist history, bob, they never claimed he'd make old people eat dog food.



It was cat food. They said he'd make grandma eat cat food. I remember it quite clearly. Course, he was running against the guy who said old people freezing in their homes because they couldn't afford the heating bills should just put on a sweater, but Reagan was the heartless one...

Blogger szopen July 14, 2016 3:20 AM  

@169 Bob k. mando
Hillary was an integral part of nearly setting us to war over Ukraine and instigating civil wars and coups throughout North Africa and the Near East.
You look from the US perspective, which is fine, of course. However, I said I look from our perspective. Ukraine which is US pawn is better for us than Ukraine being Russian pawn. If Hillary conspired to get Ukraine out of Russian sphere of influence, then it is not a bad thing from my POV (and, incidentally, quite a lot of
Ukrainians agreed).

if *you* wish to keep getting a free ride on your self defense bill, leeching off of the American taxpayer / Chinese bond purchaser then, yes, Trump MAY be a change for the worse for you.

Poland is one of four NATO countries which actually lived up to the obligation of spending 2% of GDP for military (the other three being Greece (!), Estonia and GB). We have also a lobby pushing for increasing this percentage higher. We participated practically in all US operations against Afganistan and Iraq, with 44 dead in Afghanistan and 22 in Iraq. Our troops are still in Afganistan (198; in comparison, GB contributed 450 troops), with negotiated possibility of increasing our presence there.

Not much compared to US losses, but taking into account our (mostly economical) possibilities, I would say we were not leeches, thank you very much.

As for whether Trump is less hated than Reagan or Nixon, I do not know - so I modify my "ever" to "during the time I'd been friends with Americans". They thought Bush was stupid and bad, they thought Romney was stupid and bad, they thought 15 candidates except Trump were stupid and bad, but they think Trump is evil incarnate.

Blogger Shimshon July 14, 2016 3:22 AM  

@187 I was 13 during the 1980 election campaign, and they (the media, the school teachers, etc.) had us scared out of our wits that Reagan winning was going to result in a nuclear war.

Reagan wasn't just hated. He was despised.

Anonymous SciVo July 14, 2016 4:35 AM  

szopen wrote:As for whether Trump is less hated than Reagan or Nixon, I do not know - so I modify my "ever" to "during the time I'd been friends with Americans". They thought Bush was stupid and bad, they thought Romney was stupid and bad, they thought 15 candidates except Trump were stupid and bad, but they think Trump is evil incarnate.

It's simple: cosmopolitans are humans, so they're vain and think their foreign-loving in-group is good and the home-loving outgroup is evil. So they make up unscientific codswallop like "authoritarian personality" theory to rationalize and justify their visceral fear and hatred of traditional native European culture, by pathologizing its common signifiers.

So when a foreigner like you gets to know Americans, they're probably cosmopolitans. And the more they fear and hate a political candidate, the more likely that he represents normal Americans who like America as it is, and who would like to keep the awesome social capital of a high-trust society, which is to say a northern European culture.

Outside of this forum, you're only likely to meet Americans that don't really like America or their fellow Americans all that much. In fact, they would probably rather that we were almost anything else, since if they really liked their homeland, then they wouldn't be so outward-oriented and so likely to talk to you. So your perspective can't help but be distorted.

Blogger Cail Corishev July 14, 2016 8:24 AM  

The left certainly hated Reagan, but they hated him for reasons: they feared that he would roll back their progress. The hatred for Bush was pretty perfunctory. Hating is what the left does, so they hated him and called him Bushitler and so on, but there was never much behind it because he was one of them more than not.

The hatred for Trump is different, since it's mostly based on personality. Haters on the left say he's a fascist who will persecute gays and minorities; haters on the right say he's a liberal plant who will put Hillary and Obama on the Supreme Court. Both are irrational, which is why the hate seems stronger -- it's pure emotion, flying around almost at random when seen from the outside.

Blogger James Dixon July 14, 2016 11:15 AM  

Hmm. New CBS/NYT poll at http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-tied-going-into-conventions-cbsnyt-poll/

Hillary and Trump are now tied nationally.

Anonymous zapbrannigan1 July 14, 2016 12:42 PM  

I know it's NRO and that's considered verboten around here, but this article on the uphill battle Trump faces in the Electoral College is sobering:

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/437696/hillary-clintons-strategy-electoral-college-key

Basically, there is no possible way that Trump wins in a landslide; it's tempting to think it could happen, but ludicrous. Hillary STARTS with 210 EC votes just by existing. From there, there are 13 swing states from which to win the remaining 60 votes. Even if Trump can win toss-up states like Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio he could still lose.

There's nothing like a little basic math to utterly suck the wind out your sails. It's going to take an incredible set of circumstances for Trump to pull this out.

Blogger Harleyrose59 July 14, 2016 12:45 PM  

How in the world will her handlers avoid a staged debate with Mr.Trump?
He will eviscerate her in five minutes or less! Probably give her a stroke by ten minutes!
Kinda scary thinking of the lengths they may go to escape that Crash & Burn ending to their grand schemes!

Blogger Snidely Whiplash July 14, 2016 2:00 PM  

zapbrannigan1 wrote:. Hillary STARTS with 210 EC votes just by existing.
False

Blogger James Dixon July 14, 2016 3:04 PM  

> Hillary STARTS with 210 EC votes just by existing.

Hillary starts with CA, NY, MI, and IL. 120 electoral votes. That's it. Everything else is up for grabs. And she'll have to work in NY, which is not something she expected.

There are some other safe bets for Hillary (OR, WA, MN, etc.), but they're not givens. Trump could take them. He won't take CA and won't take NY if Hillary bothers to campaign there seriously.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash July 14, 2016 4:05 PM  

CBS, NYT, et al are reporting Pence is Trump's pick for VP.

Not a bad choice. Certainly Pence can talk policy more cogently than Trump. Buys him some credibility in the Midwest as well.

Anonymous zapbrannigan1 July 14, 2016 4:15 PM  

@Snidely

Explain.

@James Dixon

Why are these other states not givens?

I think you're greatly overestimating Trump's outsider appeal. With the exception of Virginia, the "safe bet" states (WA, OR, ME, MA, MD, NJ) have been more than just safe for Democrats for multiple presidential elections. They're liberal strongholds. Sure, you'll get the occasional Scott Brown surprise victory, but a presidential election is not a congressional election.

Just the ones I listed above account for 58 EC votes. I'm not saying there's no way she can't lose one, maybe even two. But that would be an incredible coup given the calcified progressive culture in these ultra-liberal regions.

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